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Speaker 1: This is the Action Network Podcast.

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Speaker 2: It is good all right. Here we go.

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Speaker 3: Fifteen twenty twenty five, thirty thirty five, forty twenty five, fifty.

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Speaker 4: And the kicks block the college football world standard.

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Speaker 5: Good bye, Oh my goodness. It's stumble and fumble, the

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Speaker 5: lateral turn, the counter on the job, Get you the

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Speaker 5: lad I'm.

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Speaker 2: Not the table up the field to night. It's not

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Speaker 2: the sides of the dog in the fight.

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Speaker 1: It's the size of the fight in the doll.

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Speaker 5: What's up the general nation? Welcome to the Action Network Podcast.

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Speaker 5: This is the College Football Betting Preview, Part one. I'm

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Speaker 5: stucky and with me as always is Colin Wilson. It's

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Speaker 5: good to be back. What's going on?

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Speaker 2: Gong?

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Speaker 1: We are officially back. It's just a gift.

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Speaker 2: We're gonna start off with the Big Ten preview. Ohia State.

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Speaker 2: It's minus one ninety to win it. They're going for

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Speaker 2: their fifth straight Big Ten title? Are they that? We

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Speaker 2: have to replace fields? And you know there's three starting linebackers,

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Speaker 2: but everyone else is pretty much back. Penn State they

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Speaker 2: finished four and oh after starting at five. They have

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Speaker 2: new coordinators. Indiana returns a lot. They got some some

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Speaker 2: metrics that suggested they were pretty lucky last year. Is

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Speaker 2: Phoenix healthy that's a big question as well, I think

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Speaker 2: the most And Boatdog Jim, we have to give a

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Speaker 2: shout out to him.

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Speaker 1: Don't gamble, don't associate with gamblers. Avoid it like the plague.

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Speaker 2: Let's check in with boat Dog Jim. Can he find

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Speaker 2: a quarterback and he finds some wins? This might be

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Speaker 2: his uh, his last ie. You just signed it. I mean,

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Speaker 2: you're just gonna sign another extension. But he he's trying

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Speaker 2: everything down there or I should say up there it

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Speaker 2: had arbor and I think but I think the most

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Speaker 2: interesting question here in a conference, I think we've both

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Speaker 2: a grill has that's gonna win. Is Wisconsin with Mertz?

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Speaker 2: How much better is Mertz if he's now healthy? Right, so,

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Speaker 2: how much of like some of his struggles last year

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Speaker 2: because of his shoulder, and then how much of a

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Speaker 2: bump can we expect from him and that passing game,

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Speaker 2: which then you would think if that's more successful. They're

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Speaker 2: two best receivers going into last year, Prior and Davis.

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Speaker 2: I think they started like two. They missed them like

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Speaker 2: you know, seventy percent of the season. They're back. If

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Speaker 2: the passing game goes better, then it's obviously going to

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Speaker 2: open up a running game that struggle for Wisconsin standards

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Speaker 2: last year. So they're probably the most interesting team, and

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Speaker 2: you know I was going to be in the mix,

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Speaker 2: as they always are. Any let's not go too deep here,

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Speaker 2: but any quick thoughts on the big ten.

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Speaker 4: I'm a complete believer at Wisconsin's going to return to form.

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Speaker 4: You mentioned Jeff Hafley in the culture he's established at

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Speaker 4: Boston College and that translates to other programs like Wisconsin.

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Speaker 4: That Paul Chris, they were a COVID ravaged team. But

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Speaker 4: what we saw to Graham Mertz when he was healthy

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Speaker 4: in the first game of the season was a perfect

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Speaker 4: game against Illinois, and then he had a meltdown after that.

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Speaker 4: Jalen Berger was only getting fifteen carries per game. He

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Speaker 4: averaged five point one to three yards after contact against Michigan,

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Speaker 4: and then that all fell apart because the offensive line

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Speaker 4: got COVID. They were swapping guys in and out. So

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Speaker 4: jalen Berger has the ability to create explosive runs highlight yards.

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Speaker 4: I think Mertz's arm is now now that it's healthy again,

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Speaker 4: and I'm glad he let us know that he was

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Speaker 4: hurt because none of us can figure out what the

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Speaker 4: hell was going on. Keep in mind, defensive success rate

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Speaker 4: is the big indicator of covering the spread. In wisconstant

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Speaker 4: returns eighty three percent of a unit that was fifth

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Speaker 4: and success rate sixth in defensive finishing drives. I believe

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Speaker 4: in Wisconsin to return. I have no problems taking their

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Speaker 4: futures for the West. Give me the right price, and

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Speaker 4: they can give Ohiose State of the challenge at the end.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I don't disagree with either. I think that they're

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Speaker 2: the team if everything falls into place, that could challenge

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Speaker 2: Ohio State College Fodall the Big Twelve. Big Twelve. Look,

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Speaker 2: we've mentioned to Clemson Ohio State. Same story with to

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Speaker 2: Oklahoma going for their seventh straight Big Twelve title, and

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Speaker 2: they did it last year despite starting zero to two

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Speaker 2: in conference for the first time in twenty two years.

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Speaker 2: I think that this could potentially be an interesting race

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Speaker 2: for the second spot. I think Oklahoma is going to

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Speaker 2: get there. Iowa State is loaded. I think I'm higher,

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Speaker 2: I mean I'm always I think I'm always higher on

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Speaker 2: Iowa State than everybody, but they bring back almost everybody.

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Speaker 2: They got pretty you know Breise Hall and five other

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Speaker 2: first team all Big twelve players. Their defense is stacked.

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Speaker 2: That three three, five is for each level is completely

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Speaker 2: stacked that. I look, this team is really good. You

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Speaker 2: could argue that they're a top five or sixteen in

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Speaker 2: the country. I think that there's value in them at

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Speaker 2: forty to one if you can find that number. If

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Speaker 2: they run the table, look, they have to go to Oklahoma.

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Speaker 2: What I think happens with Iowa State, they at least

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Speaker 2: get the they host I think Texas, Oklahoma State TCU,

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Speaker 2: they have to go to Oklahoma. I think Oklahoma gets them.

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Speaker 2: And if they can get back to the Big Twelve

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Speaker 2: title with one loss and they beat Oklahoma and you know,

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Speaker 2: we say Bama is down, can Iowa State sneak into

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Speaker 2: the Collegewall Playoff? I think so. If they run the table,

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Speaker 2: they're obviously getting in. But forty to one I don't

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Speaker 2: think like they should be forty to one at Oklahoma

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Speaker 2: should be eight to one. So that's just me. I

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Speaker 2: think that they should be a little I just love

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Speaker 2: Matt Campbell. I love what he's doing. The question is, look,

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Speaker 2: he just knows how to coach. They're gonna win the

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Speaker 2: close games. They just had the culture and an identity.

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Speaker 2: They're not gonna it's not gonna last that much longer.

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Speaker 2: They're not getting the recruiting that Oklahoma is. But this

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Speaker 2: team is loaded to me and get Can they figure

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Speaker 2: out September that's the question, and can they figure out Iowa?

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Speaker 2: So that's the two and I was in September. Now

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Speaker 2: they host them. They lost five straight and they always

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Speaker 2: seem to drop a game in September. They have to

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Speaker 2: go to Baylor and they get Iowa at home. That's

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Speaker 2: really the only two games that they could lose, potentially

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Speaker 2: lose in September. If they get through that, you know,

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Speaker 2: sky's the limit. You're probably also gonna tell me about TCU.

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Speaker 2: They bring almost everyone back, so and yeah, Oklahoma the

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Speaker 2: Spencer Rattler. They're loaded. They get some opt outs back

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Speaker 2: to from last year, some key transfers, Power five transfers

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Speaker 2: that'll come in, including running back Eric Gray. So I

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Speaker 2: mean they're they're loaded. Their defense should continue to improve

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Speaker 2: under out Scritch. You could argue their top ten defense

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Speaker 2: this year. So what do you see it in the

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Speaker 2: Big twelve?

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Speaker 4: Yeah, I mean I'll start off with Iowa State because

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Speaker 4: I think that's the big hot team that everybody wants

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Speaker 4: to talk about. So to throw down a little mathematics here,

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Speaker 4: this was only their third nine win season in program

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Speaker 4: history since like the year nineteen oh three, I make

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Speaker 4: their win total nine point six. Bet MGM is at

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Speaker 4: nine point five. If I do a little posh on distribution,

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Speaker 4: I give the Cyclones a ninety six percent chance to

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Speaker 4: finish conference play at least seven to two.

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Speaker 1: And why is that important? Because there's no divisions. You

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Speaker 1: need to finish top two.

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Speaker 4: So at least a ninety six percent chance of them

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Speaker 4: going seven and two somewhere around over a seventy five

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Speaker 4: percent chance for them to go eight and one. Throw

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Speaker 4: in that projected line against Oklahoma and Arlington on a

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Speaker 4: neutral site, and the true pop probability for Iowa State

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Speaker 4: should be more like plus three twenty five plus three

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Speaker 4: fifty than the current plus two fifty. So if you

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Speaker 4: see plus three twenty five on Iowa State, that's the

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Speaker 4: by price for them to win the Big twelve.

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Speaker 1: I can't bet on the futures because you mentioned it.

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Speaker 4: This is an Iowa State coach that I know everybody loves,

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Speaker 4: and everybody loves his team, but he's never beaten Iowa.

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Speaker 4: He lost to a Sun Belt team last year. He

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Speaker 4: needed three overtimes to beat Northern Iowa in twenty nineteen,

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Speaker 4: and he beat Drake by three points in twenty eighteen,

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Speaker 4: which was like a sloppy ice mud bowl Fest in November.

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Speaker 4: October is definitely bro October. But it's a hard pass

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Speaker 4: on this team for me from a futures perspective. And

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Speaker 4: then I think the other team that we got to

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Speaker 4: talk about is Texas, and really when we talk about

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Speaker 4: establishing culture, they are pushing out a Tom Herman culture

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Speaker 4: where everybody was hurt all the time and there was

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Speaker 4: no player development. We saw big time five star recruits

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Speaker 4: pass on Texas in the state of Texas because Alabama

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Speaker 4: had better player development. And the truth is that Tom

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Speaker 4: Herman who just beat his kids up in August with

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Speaker 4: two to day practices and going full pads.

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Speaker 2: Like, well, let me back up, that's a really upset

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Speaker 2: and dejected locker room. I mean, we had guys in tears.

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Speaker 1: When I played football.

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Speaker 4: Thursday was a shorts day, shorts and helmet day right

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Speaker 4: before I and Tom Herman just has full pads going

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Speaker 4: on every day and What happened was is you have

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Speaker 4: an injured roster every single year and then the high

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Speaker 4: emotion built, you know, just the emotions of being an

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Speaker 4: underdog raw rad and then the next week you can't

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Speaker 4: win as a favorite.

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Speaker 1: All that's gone.

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Speaker 4: The defense goes through his shift with Pete Kwitakowski coming

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Speaker 4: in from Washington. He is the architect of what's been

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Speaker 4: going on up there. The defensive coordinator. We know the

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Speaker 4: Jimmy Lake was a defensive coordinator, but Kwitakowski is really

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Speaker 4: the guy that's been driving it. He was one of

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Speaker 4: the you know, a very highly sought after. Sark knows

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Speaker 4: him really well because he has a Boise background, a

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Speaker 4: Washington background, and Sark was at USC and at Washington.

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Speaker 4: So this was a big hire for him and this

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Speaker 4: has potential to be I'll say this because we said

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Speaker 4: before when Alex Grinch was drowning in the Ohio State staff,

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Speaker 4: when we knew what he did at Washington State.

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Speaker 1: With their HAVOC numbers.

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Speaker 4: When he got hired at Oklahoma, we both said on

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Speaker 4: the podcast three years ago, this is a bigger acquisition

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Speaker 4: than Jalen Hurts transferring in. Alex Grinch is going to

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Speaker 4: turn them around completely. And we'll talk about OU a

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Speaker 4: little bit later, but this is what kind of hire

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Speaker 4: this is for Texas. I believe that phil Kuwadakowski coming

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Speaker 4: in from Washington is going to have those kind of

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Speaker 4: same results.

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Speaker 1: Is it going to happen this year? Not sure.

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Speaker 4: Defensive ranks of seventy first and success rate should improve.

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Speaker 4: Can they stay in the top twenty five in defensive

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Speaker 4: havoc without Joseph Assi, who really supported that entire statistic

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Speaker 4: all on his own for the Longhorns last year.

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Speaker 1: I project them at seven point seven wins. I'm going

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Speaker 1: to sit on the eight.

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Speaker 4: I'll be completely ready to pivot on this team if

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Speaker 4: the box score calls for it against Louisiana to start

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Speaker 4: off the season.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, Texas will be a fascinating team all year long.

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Speaker 2: PAC twelve, Oh no, we suck again to some of

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Speaker 2: how weird last year was. Oregon is seeking its first

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Speaker 2: three peat since two thousand and nine eleven, and they

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Speaker 2: didn't win their division last year, but they got in

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Speaker 2: because Washington couldn't plant. It's just bizarre. But I think

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Speaker 2: it's the most fascinating Power five conference because you have

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Speaker 2: what five teams that are either that are between plus

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Speaker 2: two fifty and plus six hundred to win the PAC

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Speaker 2: twelve Oregon, Washington, USC, Arizona State, and Utah. I think

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Speaker 2: that the you know, the North is gonna come down

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Speaker 2: to the high level of confidence either gonna come down

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Speaker 2: to Oregon or Washington, and I think a lot of

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Speaker 2: that will go to which can a quarterback emerge to

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Speaker 2: really separate themselves from you know, the pack in that division.

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Speaker 2: Dyl Morris is back from Washington. I'm not necessarily a

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Speaker 2: huge believer, but there's also a lot of Washington fans

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Speaker 2: that are calling for sam Hewart, who's like a you know,

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Speaker 2: the phenom prospect. Some people say he's gonna red shirt,

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Speaker 2: not play. Maybe he's gonna go in there. And then Oregon,

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Speaker 2: I'm not also sold on Anthony Brown, but they also

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Speaker 2: have a you know, a highly touted freshman and Ty Thompson.

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Speaker 2: So who and what ends up happening at quarterback at

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Speaker 2: either one of those schools, I think it will end

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Speaker 2: up determining who wins the North. And in the South,

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Speaker 2: I think it's a three team race between USC, Arizona

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Speaker 2: State and Utah. USC. Look, do we say Slovas was

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Speaker 2: not healthy last year? And you know they in USC

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Speaker 2: I just talked about some miracle wins all year. And look,

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Speaker 2: by the way Clay health, I'm not a big buyer there,

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Speaker 2: But if if Slovas who just found ways to still

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Speaker 2: ben games, but he's now one hundreds and healthy and

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Speaker 2: a lot of the struggles last year were because of health,

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Speaker 2: then you know, similar to Wisconsin with Mertz, we can

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Speaker 2: assume a bump there. Utah ads Charlie Brewer. They you know,

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Speaker 2: they lost everything last year on that defense, and now

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Speaker 2: they're gonna be much more experienced. They're always in the mix.

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Speaker 2: And then Arizona State's team, I love the upside on.

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Speaker 2: I love their defense. They were look you want to

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Speaker 2: talk about second year of new schemes. They fit the mold.

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Speaker 2: Jane Daniels is one of the best quarterbacks in the

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Speaker 2: country in my opinion. Their running game should that be

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Speaker 2: dynamic if they just get a couple young and they

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Speaker 2: have a lot of talent, but they lost their top

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Speaker 2: receiver for the past couple of years, they get some

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Speaker 2: of these young talented receivers to step up in the

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Speaker 2: outside Arizona State is extremely dangerous. What might end up

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Speaker 2: settling this is that Arizona State hosts USC, but goes

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Speaker 2: to Utah. Utah host Arizona State but goes to USC,

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Speaker 2: and USC host Utah. So however you think that that

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Speaker 2: plays into it might decide it. What do you see

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Speaker 2: in the Pac twelve.

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Speaker 4: Well, I'll start in the south because we're talking about

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Speaker 4: Arizona State, a team we don't know, if you know

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Speaker 4: herm is going to take the fall for some of

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Speaker 4: these recruiting violations that were going on turn COVID. They're

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Speaker 4: pretty bad and someone's head's going to get lopped off

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Speaker 4: for it. But you know, Arizona State fields one of

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Speaker 4: the eldest defensive back sevens in the entire conference, and

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Speaker 4: that's really important. And you know, especially in a division

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Speaker 4: where you got the USC air raid going on. Team

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Speaker 4: that continues to come up for me as UCLA. I

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Speaker 4: will talk about that in the win total segment, but

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Speaker 4: USC is a team that opened up with a win

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Speaker 4: total of nine and came down to eight and a half.

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Speaker 4: One of the biggest downgrades for me was USC and

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Speaker 4: their second order win total perspective, a five to zero

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Speaker 4: record leading into a Pac twelve title game loss to

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Speaker 4: an Oregon team shouldn't have even been there thanks to COVID.

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Speaker 4: Teams that can rush three and Drop eight will have

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Speaker 4: an advantage on Kadan Slovas and the air raid offense.

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Speaker 4: Arizona State, Utah, Cal. They all ranked top six and

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Speaker 4: the Pac twelve and secondaries for this season. All on

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Speaker 4: the schedule. Teams are going to sell out against the run,

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Speaker 4: against the Trojans and Drop eight and usc IS, They'll

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Speaker 4: be lucky to get.

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Speaker 1: Ten wins here.

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Speaker 4: I don't see how you're taking an over nine or

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Speaker 4: an over eight and a half on them, especially when

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Speaker 4: you look at a schedule that includes a Notre Dame,

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Speaker 4: Arizona State, Cal Colorado. Those are all teams with good

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Speaker 4: secondaries Utah. I think I've written enough about them already.

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Speaker 4: In Charlie Brewer, Charlie Brewer was amazing in the spring game.

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Speaker 4: Ninety three percent of the defense returns from a unit

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Speaker 4: that was thirtieth in success rate top twenty and finishing

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Speaker 4: drives in Havoc. The defense has their ears pinned back

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Speaker 4: and they're ready to go. The defense is by far

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Speaker 4: away the best in the PAC twelve South. Arizona State,

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Speaker 4: like I said, just has that secondary loaded, but they're

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Speaker 4: not stopping the chains USC is talented, but they crumbled

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Speaker 4: in the red zone. Seventy fourth in defensive finishing drive.

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Speaker 4: So Utah, you know that's the team for me. But

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Speaker 4: I think out of the North, I'm the only person

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Speaker 4: in the world. I am the only person in the

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Speaker 4: world that doesn't like organ Everything is organ for everybody.

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Speaker 4: I can't get away from Oregon on my TV being

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Speaker 4: shoved down my throat, and I think when I look

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Speaker 4: at Washington, I don't have any answers on.

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Speaker 1: The offensive side of the of the ball.

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Speaker 4: I mean, between Patrick O'Brien coming in from Colorado State

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Speaker 4: and Dylan Moore and Dylan Morris pass, when is Sam

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Speaker 4: Hwett going to be ready? Lots of transfers out of

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Speaker 4: the wide receiver corps. The depth chart is loaded with

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Speaker 4: Charrell Bynham. Roma Dunze is a highly touted, you know, underclassman, recruited.

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Speaker 1: He's going to be in there.

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Speaker 4: Michigan transferred, you know, Giles Jackson is in house. Kate

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Speaker 4: Otton returns a tight end, He's got some explosiveness. A

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Speaker 4: ton of questions mark with the Washington offense. But that's

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Speaker 4: how I feel about the Oregon defense. So let's talk

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Speaker 4: about the Ducks. Why am I like the only person

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Speaker 4: in the world that's not taking them to win the

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Speaker 4: PAC twelve North and I'm not taking their over and

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Speaker 4: I don't think they're national title contenders.

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Speaker 1: Well, statistically, Tyler Show was a really big deal.

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Speaker 4: Any fan of Oregon will tell you that this was

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Speaker 4: Anthony Brown's position, or ty Thompson and Jay budd Field

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Speaker 4: are going to be ready and they were going to

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Speaker 4: take the job anyway. So the loss of Tyler Show

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Speaker 4: doesn't really mean anything. But statistically he was a really

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Speaker 4: big deal. The Ducks were ninety eighth and offensive Havoc allowed.

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Speaker 4: That number has to improve for Joe moorehead because the

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Speaker 4: success rate in finishing drives can both repeat his top

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Speaker 4: fifteen units if he can protect the quarterback defensively. I

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Speaker 4: think this is where my problem is. I'm not excited

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Speaker 4: about Tim de Ruder taking over for Andy Avolos. Andy

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Speaker 4: Avolos leaves he's now the head coach in Boise State,

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Speaker 4: but Tim de Ruter comes in after being the defensive

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Speaker 4: coordinator at Cal and my initial reaction to that was

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Speaker 4: I don't like that change whatsoever, But I had to

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Speaker 4: statistically back it up before I could make my decision.

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Speaker 4: So let's go through Tim de Ruder at Cal twenty

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Speaker 4: seventeen to twenty twenty as a defensive coordinator.

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Speaker 1: His success rate. Let's look at the rankings.

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Speaker 4: He went from seventy ninth and this is going twenty

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Speaker 4: seventeen to twenty twenty for CAL success rate seventy ninth

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Speaker 4: all the way down to fifth, and twenty eighteen jumps

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Speaker 4: up to forty third, and last year Cal finished one

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Speaker 4: hundred and eleventh in success rate on defense. Not good

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Speaker 4: finishing drives other big indicator of against the spread. Tim

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Speaker 4: de Ruder comes into twenty seventeen, callus thirty seventh, they

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Speaker 4: go down to eighteenth, then they go down to seventh,

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Speaker 4: and twenty nineteen, last year eightieth. Then Havoc has really

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Speaker 4: got uncomfortable with this. Tim de Ruter, ben don't break.

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Speaker 4: Try to play red zone defense. Havoc ranks for Cal

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Speaker 4: and starting in twenty seventeen tenth, twenty fourth, seventy third,

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Speaker 4: eighty second, the defense got progressively worse in finishing drives,

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Speaker 4: success rate, and Havoc in the years that Tim der

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Speaker 4: Ruder was there.

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Speaker 1: I make the win total.

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Speaker 4: Eight point one. I don't see any way this team

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Speaker 4: wins ten games for an over. I am not on

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Speaker 4: the Oregon national title bandwagon whatsoever.

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Speaker 2: No, I agree with you, So yeah, we can share

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Speaker 2: that common thread that I don't think Oregon is worth

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Speaker 2: even looking at to win the national title. But yeah,

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Speaker 2: Utah is definitely an intriguing team Utah, and we'll get

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Speaker 2: to them here shortly that date. Arguably, I think I

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Speaker 2: have the best offensive and defensive lines in the conference,

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Speaker 2: and they could be in eleven games.

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Speaker 1: Charlie Brewers made you a lot of money.

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Speaker 4: I has a lot of Baylor Knight, but a lot

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Speaker 4: of Baylor Charlie Brewer Knights.

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Speaker 2: Yep. All right, So that wraps up just a quick

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Speaker 2: look at each of the five Power five conferences. Again,

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Speaker 2: we're gonna have episodes dedicated solely to each, starting with

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Speaker 2: the Big Ten, which will be first up, and we're

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Speaker 2: gonna at least touch on one team in each of

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Speaker 2: the other conferences when we go three and out. So

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Speaker 2: before we get out of here, let's go three and out.

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Speaker 1: Let's make it a quick three and out.

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Speaker 2: Let's talk some of our favorite futures. National title will

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Speaker 2: start there. I've already mentioned look I took and if

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Speaker 2: I were you on Arizona State. I would wait because

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Speaker 2: they should have with all the recruiting violations, they should

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Speaker 2: have a decision. I think they stay before September, so

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Speaker 2: wait on them. But I was in look. I casted

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Speaker 2: a Matsiama ticket. I was at out in Vegas. There

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Speaker 2: was one hundred and fifty to one. I threw a

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Speaker 2: couple hundred hours on it. I played Iowa State forty

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Speaker 2: to one. Colin, you're going to be hating that. Hopefully

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Speaker 2: I can get through September. Hopefully all I wanted to

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Speaker 2: get through September to get to Roctober with some hope

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Speaker 2: and then Georgia eight to one. If you find eight

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Speaker 2: to one or better, I think that there's many paths

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Speaker 2: where they can get to college fool playoff, and they

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Speaker 2: have an offense to compliment that defense. And you could

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Speaker 2: maybe talk me into tests anm if you wanted to

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Speaker 2: buy that upside of the quarterback working out, because the

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Speaker 2: rest of the roster, if you assume that the recruits

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Speaker 2: of the offensive line workout, is loaded. So Colin, how

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Speaker 2: WU for national title?

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Speaker 1: For national title, I'm taking Oklahoma. I bought them at

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Speaker 1: ten to one.

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Speaker 4: It was the first bet I made on the twenty

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Speaker 4: twenty one season. Bet MGM currently has them at eight

401
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Speaker 4: to one. There is value at eight to one. There

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Speaker 4: is so much offense from Spencer Rattler, offensive line, depth,

403
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Speaker 4: explosive weapons, getting upgrades like running back Eric Gray coming

404
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Speaker 4: in from Tennessee or Mike Woods, my wide receiver at

405
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Speaker 4: Arkansas transferring in. He's like now buried in the depth

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Speaker 4: chart wide receiver. But to be real, every Ou offense

407
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Speaker 4: has been filthy good in the Lincoln Riley era. Two

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Speaker 4: early losses and Rattler's first three games created a ton

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Speaker 4: of question marks and why because he couldn't handle it

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Speaker 4: in the pocket. He was just he would get pressure

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Speaker 4: and he would just fold. But eight straight wins, an

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Speaker 4: improvement from Rattler and a pressured pocket had the Sooners

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Speaker 4: rolling by December last year. So the question mark would

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Speaker 4: be really like, why are you buying a national title

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Speaker 4: of future now when you never have before, when there

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Speaker 4: was Baker Mayfield, Jalen Hurts, Kyler Murray. Because the answer

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Speaker 4: is Alex Grinch in year three of this defense. And

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Speaker 4: really what we need to know is that you know

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Speaker 4: last season, oh, you finished sixteenth in defensive success rate

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Speaker 4: and seventh in defensive havoc once opponents got past the

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Speaker 4: forty yard line. Oh, you produced the thirty second best

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Speaker 4: unit in points per attempt at three point one. You

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Speaker 4: only got three point one points every time you crossed

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Speaker 4: the forty. That was an excellent I mean, the improvement.

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Speaker 4: We're just we're just two or three years away from

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Speaker 4: calling the Sooners a bunch of lawn chairs on defense

427
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Speaker 4: that you.

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Speaker 1: Could just statues that you could just throw pass.

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Speaker 4: And now all of a sudden, you've got these top

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Speaker 4: twenty ran in success rate and havoc and Nick Benito

431
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Speaker 4: comes back, and perry On Winfree and Isaiah Thomas and

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Speaker 4: then all in the back in the front seven to

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Speaker 4: make this the most opportunitist defense in the Big twelve

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Speaker 4: maybe in the nation. At the trajectory that they're playing,

435
00:20:13,000 --> 00:20:15,320
Speaker 4: they are rising and rising and havoc and success rate

436
00:20:15,880 --> 00:20:18,800
Speaker 4: Oklahoma eight to one. To me, this flies in the

437
00:20:18,840 --> 00:20:21,200
Speaker 4: face of your Iowa State And I think the deal is,

438
00:20:21,240 --> 00:20:24,320
Speaker 4: can Iowa State get one from the Sooners? Yeah, but

439
00:20:24,480 --> 00:20:27,480
Speaker 4: Iowa State has to win out in September and that

440
00:20:27,560 --> 00:20:30,200
Speaker 4: way they can afford a loss to Oklahoma during season

441
00:20:30,200 --> 00:20:31,800
Speaker 4: play and then beat them in the end of Arlington.

442
00:20:31,840 --> 00:20:34,679
Speaker 4: So you know, Oklahoma is a team. I just you

443
00:20:34,680 --> 00:20:36,320
Speaker 4: could catch them on a bad day and beat them.

444
00:20:36,440 --> 00:20:38,080
Speaker 4: But I don't see them losing twice.

445
00:20:38,240 --> 00:20:38,920
Speaker 1: So one loss.

446
00:20:38,920 --> 00:20:42,320
Speaker 4: Oklahoma is getting into the playoff and that defense, the

447
00:20:42,359 --> 00:20:44,840
Speaker 4: way Alex Scrinch is coaching it up, they can absolutely

448
00:20:44,880 --> 00:20:47,400
Speaker 4: hang with the big boys, the Ohio States, the Clemsons

449
00:20:47,400 --> 00:20:47,840
Speaker 4: of the world.

450
00:20:48,560 --> 00:20:50,480
Speaker 2: Yeah, I still do have some questions about the Oklahoma

451
00:20:50,560 --> 00:20:52,760
Speaker 2: secondary to see and that would really determine. It's kind

452
00:20:52,760 --> 00:20:55,360
Speaker 2: of like Ohio State, can they win the national title

453
00:20:55,400 --> 00:20:57,920
Speaker 2: if they get there right? So, you know, it's particularly

454
00:20:57,920 --> 00:20:59,760
Speaker 2: that's safety. I mean, it's better that it's been. You know,

455
00:20:59,760 --> 00:21:02,080
Speaker 2: they crushed Florida, but at Florida's entire offense was out

456
00:21:02,119 --> 00:21:04,439
Speaker 2: for that bowl game. We were wrong in there. So

457
00:21:05,000 --> 00:21:07,920
Speaker 2: ken their secondary because that front seven is scary good.

458
00:21:07,920 --> 00:21:10,600
Speaker 2: And then just schematically, it's a world of difference and

459
00:21:10,720 --> 00:21:12,600
Speaker 2: what we see from Oaklham in the past, and by

460
00:21:12,640 --> 00:21:15,040
Speaker 2: the way, Lincoln Riley, whenever he's had an experienced quarterback

461
00:21:15,320 --> 00:21:18,200
Speaker 2: has gone to the collegetball Playoff, which he does this year.

462
00:21:18,840 --> 00:21:19,840
Speaker 2: I didn't last year.

463
00:21:20,080 --> 00:21:21,960
Speaker 4: Well stick it in the conference. I did make a

464
00:21:21,960 --> 00:21:23,280
Speaker 4: bet if you go out there and search for it.

465
00:21:23,359 --> 00:21:26,560
Speaker 4: TCU to make the Big twelve championship game. It's right

466
00:21:26,600 --> 00:21:28,119
Speaker 4: now listed at eight to one. I bought it at

467
00:21:28,160 --> 00:21:29,760
Speaker 4: nine to one. I would buy it down to plus

468
00:21:29,800 --> 00:21:30,439
Speaker 4: four fifty.

469
00:21:30,760 --> 00:21:31,880
Speaker 1: There are a lot of.

470
00:21:31,840 --> 00:21:35,720
Speaker 4: Probabilities that give TCU just I mean, I mentioned posh

471
00:21:35,800 --> 00:21:37,760
Speaker 4: on distribution. If you're a math neerd or whatever, you

472
00:21:37,800 --> 00:21:41,040
Speaker 4: can go look that up. TCU's chance of going seven

473
00:21:41,080 --> 00:21:43,399
Speaker 4: to two is not that far off from Iowa States.

474
00:21:44,000 --> 00:21:44,960
Speaker 1: And if I look.

475
00:21:44,840 --> 00:21:48,040
Speaker 4: At the schedule, TCU Iowa State last game of the year,

476
00:21:48,440 --> 00:21:51,240
Speaker 4: So absolutely all you have to do is finish in

477
00:21:51,240 --> 00:21:52,480
Speaker 4: the top two in the Big Twelve to go to

478
00:21:52,520 --> 00:21:54,960
Speaker 4: the championship game. TCU is going to play the team

479
00:21:55,000 --> 00:21:56,560
Speaker 4: that we think is going to be slided at number

480
00:21:56,560 --> 00:21:58,119
Speaker 4: two in the last game of the season.

481
00:21:58,560 --> 00:21:59,400
Speaker 1: So there's your heage.

482
00:21:59,640 --> 00:22:02,000
Speaker 4: This is to me, this is an easy hedge on

483
00:22:02,080 --> 00:22:04,840
Speaker 4: a team with a quarterback that can absolutely dominate games

484
00:22:04,840 --> 00:22:08,280
Speaker 4: and Max Duggan, plenty of skill positions on the outside,

485
00:22:08,880 --> 00:22:12,000
Speaker 4: edge rushers that can create pressure the Gary Patterson defense.

486
00:22:12,000 --> 00:22:14,719
Speaker 4: The four to five should be back. TCU is getting

487
00:22:14,960 --> 00:22:17,680
Speaker 4: no respect in the market whatsoever. A team that dealt

488
00:22:17,720 --> 00:22:20,240
Speaker 4: with so much COVID had so many canceled games. My

489
00:22:20,359 --> 00:22:22,640
Speaker 4: Arkansas Razorbacks finally made it back to a Bowl Bowl

490
00:22:22,680 --> 00:22:25,920
Speaker 4: gets canceled because TCU had COVID issues. So TCU is

491
00:22:25,960 --> 00:22:28,320
Speaker 4: a team flying way under the radar that I love

492
00:22:28,440 --> 00:22:30,320
Speaker 4: to just to make the championship game. The Big twelve

493
00:22:30,359 --> 00:22:31,800
Speaker 4: eight to one value there.

494
00:22:32,119 --> 00:22:34,280
Speaker 2: To go against you again with Iowa State is I've

495
00:22:34,280 --> 00:22:37,479
Speaker 2: bet I would state minus one ten to make the

496
00:22:37,600 --> 00:22:39,800
Speaker 2: Big twelve championship game. I think that that. I don't

497
00:22:39,840 --> 00:22:41,560
Speaker 2: know if that number is still available, it might be

498
00:22:41,760 --> 00:22:44,000
Speaker 2: a little higher now, but you mentioned it. I don't

499
00:22:44,000 --> 00:22:47,679
Speaker 2: hate the TCU that especially at eight to one, but

500
00:22:47,920 --> 00:22:50,639
Speaker 2: I think that the difference ultimately and if this is

501
00:22:50,640 --> 00:22:52,560
Speaker 2: why I prefer Iowa State going to the Big Tols

502
00:22:52,720 --> 00:22:54,960
Speaker 2: over like Iowa State over if they do trip up

503
00:22:55,160 --> 00:22:58,240
Speaker 2: in September again, you know they like say they lose

504
00:22:58,280 --> 00:23:01,440
Speaker 2: to Iowa and I was gonna be good. Yeah, really

505
00:23:01,440 --> 00:23:04,040
Speaker 2: lost the Iowa five years, So that happens. That doesn't

506
00:23:04,080 --> 00:23:06,040
Speaker 2: impact going to the Big twelve title game. I think

507
00:23:06,040 --> 00:23:08,520
Speaker 2: the difference is and look, you're taking eight to one.

508
00:23:08,520 --> 00:23:10,960
Speaker 2: I'm I was laying minus one ten. Is that game

509
00:23:11,040 --> 00:23:15,560
Speaker 2: that that prety all those seniors at home in the

510
00:23:15,600 --> 00:23:18,359
Speaker 2: home finale against TCU. I think that win. Again. They

511
00:23:18,359 --> 00:23:20,760
Speaker 2: also host Texas and Oklahoma State. But if if you

512
00:23:20,800 --> 00:23:22,880
Speaker 2: were to put a gun in my head, tc I don't.

513
00:23:22,920 --> 00:23:25,720
Speaker 2: I don't hate that be at all. Another one where

514
00:23:25,760 --> 00:23:29,760
Speaker 2: we disagree on will go there. I bet I bet

515
00:23:29,800 --> 00:23:33,200
Speaker 2: Arizona State to win the Pact twelve, and this one

516
00:23:34,040 --> 00:23:36,359
Speaker 2: is and you'll talk about Utah. It's like you bet

517
00:23:36,440 --> 00:23:39,000
Speaker 2: Utah to win the South. Obviously those are in conflict

518
00:23:39,040 --> 00:23:41,960
Speaker 2: because Arizona State has to win the South. But I

519
00:23:41,960 --> 00:23:43,760
Speaker 2: think that the North is vulnerable, which is where we

520
00:23:43,800 --> 00:23:46,320
Speaker 2: do agree. That's why I'm taking shot out in Arizona State.

521
00:23:46,320 --> 00:23:49,160
Speaker 2: And if Arizona State they can't go to the College

522
00:23:49,200 --> 00:23:52,320
Speaker 2: wall playout or there's you know, a ban for bowl

523
00:23:52,359 --> 00:23:55,600
Speaker 2: games and like, then this winning the Pac twelve ends

524
00:23:55,680 --> 00:23:58,280
Speaker 2: up becoming their super Bowl in a way. They go

525
00:23:58,320 --> 00:24:00,879
Speaker 2: to Utah, they do host US, we could have some

526
00:24:00,920 --> 00:24:04,320
Speaker 2: crazy three way tiebreakers stuff. I just love this Arizona

527
00:24:04,320 --> 00:24:07,840
Speaker 2: State defense. I love Daniels, their running game, as long

528
00:24:07,880 --> 00:24:09,600
Speaker 2: as some of the young receivers step up. And they

529
00:24:09,600 --> 00:24:11,960
Speaker 2: added the receiver Thompson from Utah, which I think will help.

530
00:24:12,119 --> 00:24:13,800
Speaker 2: I think they're going to be right there. You're going

531
00:24:13,880 --> 00:24:15,760
Speaker 2: to talk about Utah, which I also don't hate. The

532
00:24:15,840 --> 00:24:16,919
Speaker 2: upside there is crazy.

533
00:24:17,280 --> 00:24:20,359
Speaker 4: I love Arizona State two eighty two percent returning on offense,

534
00:24:20,440 --> 00:24:23,040
Speaker 4: ninety four percent returning on defense. Look at these success

535
00:24:23,119 --> 00:24:25,679
Speaker 4: rate numbers, Arizona State twenty first and offensive success rate

536
00:24:25,760 --> 00:24:27,840
Speaker 4: last year thirty seven in defensive havoc.

537
00:24:27,840 --> 00:24:29,760
Speaker 1: And I've already talked about how I love their secondary.

538
00:24:29,800 --> 00:24:33,520
Speaker 4: The difference between Utah and Arizona State is price point.

539
00:24:33,800 --> 00:24:36,439
Speaker 4: Arizona State was already priced way lower to win the

540
00:24:36,440 --> 00:24:39,600
Speaker 4: South and to win the conference, as to where Utah

541
00:24:39,760 --> 00:24:42,040
Speaker 4: I believe opened up around plus four fifty for the

542
00:24:42,119 --> 00:24:44,400
Speaker 4: South and around sixteen to one to win the PAC twelve.

543
00:24:44,440 --> 00:24:48,000
Speaker 4: I mean that's a monster, monster difference for two teamsject

544
00:24:48,000 --> 00:24:51,480
Speaker 4: I literally project Utah nine point three wins and Arizona

545
00:24:51,520 --> 00:24:54,199
Speaker 4: State nine point one wins. So I mean I have

546
00:24:54,320 --> 00:24:56,040
Speaker 4: them right there one too, at the top of the South.

547
00:24:56,080 --> 00:24:57,760
Speaker 4: So I have no complaints. It was just price point

548
00:24:57,760 --> 00:25:00,119
Speaker 4: for me. Utah second highest number in tarp. On the

549
00:25:00,119 --> 00:25:02,679
Speaker 4: defensive side of the ball, the Utes also posted the

550
00:25:02,680 --> 00:25:04,760
Speaker 4: second highest success rate of all defenses in the PAC

551
00:25:04,800 --> 00:25:07,240
Speaker 4: twelve they're in twenty twenty. Look at the schedule, right,

552
00:25:07,280 --> 00:25:10,000
Speaker 4: wea were State BYU, San Diego State BYU, and San

553
00:25:10,000 --> 00:25:13,720
Speaker 4: Diego State have been gutted. I can't promise our podcast listeners.

554
00:25:13,760 --> 00:25:16,000
Speaker 4: I mean betting San Diego State over there every week

555
00:25:16,040 --> 00:25:18,719
Speaker 4: again this year. But we mentioned Stanford. You know McKee

556
00:25:18,760 --> 00:25:20,240
Speaker 4: is going to be great at quarterback. I just I

557
00:25:20,280 --> 00:25:22,680
Speaker 4: don't see this offense working anymore. In the Pac twelve.

558
00:25:22,720 --> 00:25:24,280
Speaker 4: You have to be able to put up points. I

559
00:25:24,320 --> 00:25:26,240
Speaker 4: think Utah is going to get off to a very

560
00:25:26,280 --> 00:25:28,919
Speaker 4: strong start with a very easy schedule, and once they

561
00:25:28,920 --> 00:25:30,600
Speaker 4: get on a roll. Charlie Brewer in the defense, I

562
00:25:30,640 --> 00:25:32,240
Speaker 4: like them at plus two eighty to win the South.

563
00:25:32,880 --> 00:25:35,520
Speaker 2: Yeah. Stanford last year, they won their final four games

564
00:25:35,640 --> 00:25:36,879
Speaker 2: of the year, and I think they want to go

565
00:25:36,920 --> 00:25:38,560
Speaker 2: even go to more two and three tight end sets

566
00:25:38,600 --> 00:25:43,240
Speaker 2: this year. Yeah, but they won all of those games

567
00:25:43,840 --> 00:25:46,760
Speaker 2: were by five points or less. There's yeah, those last

568
00:25:46,760 --> 00:25:49,920
Speaker 2: four wins. And I look back at Arizona State. They

569
00:25:49,960 --> 00:25:52,160
Speaker 2: I mean, they closed really strong, and they gave away

570
00:25:52,200 --> 00:25:54,440
Speaker 2: some games earlier in the year. But I can see

571
00:25:54,640 --> 00:25:57,720
Speaker 2: the case for Utah. Two upside is crazy. Maybe E

572
00:25:57,720 --> 00:25:59,960
Speaker 2: didn't If you want to go into the Utah nash

573
00:26:00,240 --> 00:26:02,360
Speaker 2: title future. Do you think that they? I mean they

574
00:26:02,880 --> 00:26:04,399
Speaker 2: they run the table and.

575
00:26:04,359 --> 00:26:06,439
Speaker 4: You're killing You're killing me after I had all that

576
00:26:06,520 --> 00:26:08,320
Speaker 4: money on them to win the PAC twelve a couple

577
00:26:08,320 --> 00:26:10,639
Speaker 4: of years ago and touted it for nine months and

578
00:26:10,680 --> 00:26:12,240
Speaker 4: then they got to the championship game and shit the

579
00:26:12,240 --> 00:26:13,200
Speaker 4: bed against Oregon.

580
00:26:13,040 --> 00:26:17,520
Speaker 1: So that I still have a little PTSD from that.

581
00:26:18,040 --> 00:26:21,320
Speaker 2: All right, conference, let's let's finish up the conference futures here.

582
00:26:22,000 --> 00:26:22,960
Speaker 2: You have something in the AAC.

583
00:26:23,520 --> 00:26:25,520
Speaker 1: Yeah, I really want to talk about price point for

584
00:26:25,560 --> 00:26:27,960
Speaker 1: the AC. I was out in Vegas. Stuff was just

585
00:26:27,960 --> 00:26:28,359
Speaker 1: in Vegas.

586
00:26:28,400 --> 00:26:31,000
Speaker 4: I was out in Vegas Homemorial Weekend, the exact same

587
00:26:31,040 --> 00:26:34,280
Speaker 4: weekend the college football conferences hit the board. I left

588
00:26:34,320 --> 00:26:36,439
Speaker 4: my family at the hotel room at six o'clock in

589
00:26:36,480 --> 00:26:39,560
Speaker 4: the morning and immediately went and found a book. Because

590
00:26:39,640 --> 00:26:43,000
Speaker 4: Cincinnati was listed at minus one sixty to win the AAC.

591
00:26:43,240 --> 00:26:47,159
Speaker 4: That number has value up to minus two fifty. AAC

592
00:26:47,680 --> 00:26:50,320
Speaker 4: has a similar thing like Big twelve, where the top

593
00:26:50,359 --> 00:26:53,919
Speaker 4: two teams make the championship game. Does anybody see Cincinnati

594
00:26:54,000 --> 00:26:57,119
Speaker 4: not finishing in the top two in this conference? Absolutely not.

595
00:26:57,480 --> 00:27:00,520
Speaker 4: When I say that Cincinnati has two shutdown corner. I'm

596
00:27:00,520 --> 00:27:02,440
Speaker 4: not talking in the AAC, I mean in the nation.

597
00:27:02,760 --> 00:27:05,400
Speaker 4: Cincinnati returns Desmond Ritter, who all of a sudden found

598
00:27:05,440 --> 00:27:08,080
Speaker 4: an explosive game last year. We didn't think much of

599
00:27:08,160 --> 00:27:09,320
Speaker 4: him two years ago, and now he's one of the

600
00:27:09,359 --> 00:27:10,920
Speaker 4: most explosive quarterbacks in the nation.

601
00:27:11,320 --> 00:27:12,640
Speaker 1: Cincinnati returns everything.

602
00:27:13,400 --> 00:27:16,040
Speaker 4: I would buy it up to minus two fifty if

603
00:27:16,080 --> 00:27:18,240
Speaker 4: you want to go search my Twitter timeline. Yeah, I

604
00:27:18,240 --> 00:27:21,600
Speaker 4: bought minus sixty minus one sixty for to win a dime.

605
00:27:21,680 --> 00:27:23,280
Speaker 4: I mean, that's how much I believe in locking up

606
00:27:23,320 --> 00:27:25,520
Speaker 4: that much money. And I don't think Cincinnati doesn't make

607
00:27:25,520 --> 00:27:27,920
Speaker 4: the championship game. It doesn't win this conference other one

608
00:27:27,960 --> 00:27:30,520
Speaker 4: we need to talk about in Conference USA. I slept

609
00:27:30,520 --> 00:27:31,720
Speaker 4: on this. I didn't want to tweet about it. I

610
00:27:31,800 --> 00:27:33,160
Speaker 4: want to talk about it because I wanted the number

611
00:27:33,160 --> 00:27:35,400
Speaker 4: to come out fat and it did at fourteen to one.

612
00:27:35,440 --> 00:27:38,159
Speaker 4: Western Kentucky came out at Conference USA. You know the

613
00:27:38,200 --> 00:27:41,800
Speaker 4: big news there is you need to recognize what Houston

614
00:27:41,880 --> 00:27:45,919
Speaker 4: Baptist did to North Texas, Texas Tech and a Conference

615
00:27:46,080 --> 00:27:50,440
Speaker 4: USA stronghold in Louisiana, Tech. Western Kentucky went and got

616
00:27:50,480 --> 00:27:55,120
Speaker 4: Houston Baptist offensive coordinator and their quarterback Bailey Zappy, and

617
00:27:55,400 --> 00:27:58,960
Speaker 4: they were putting up six hundred yards. They were passing

618
00:27:59,000 --> 00:28:02,479
Speaker 4: for four or five hundred yards on North Texas, Texas

619
00:28:02,560 --> 00:28:05,800
Speaker 4: Tech and Louisiana Tech Conference USA defenses.

620
00:28:05,880 --> 00:28:08,520
Speaker 1: As I stare at them right now, how poor they are.

621
00:28:08,840 --> 00:28:13,440
Speaker 4: They are not ready for this offensive explosion that is already.

622
00:28:14,040 --> 00:28:17,960
Speaker 4: Houston Baptist took Texas Tech to the end. Houston Baptist

623
00:28:18,280 --> 00:28:21,520
Speaker 4: puts sixty up on North Texas. Houston Baptist should have

624
00:28:21,520 --> 00:28:23,960
Speaker 4: beat lat Tech. I mean, and now all that offense,

625
00:28:24,160 --> 00:28:25,840
Speaker 4: which it probably would have had a defense, all that

626
00:28:25,880 --> 00:28:28,359
Speaker 4: offense comes to Western Kentucky, where they have, you know,

627
00:28:28,480 --> 00:28:30,879
Speaker 4: already a pretty good defensive team. I would buy it

628
00:28:30,920 --> 00:28:32,640
Speaker 4: all the way down to seven to one. I love

629
00:28:32,640 --> 00:28:34,920
Speaker 4: what Western Kentucky is doing. Cats out of the bag.

630
00:28:34,960 --> 00:28:36,720
Speaker 4: That number at fourteen to one open is all the

631
00:28:36,720 --> 00:28:38,880
Speaker 4: way down to seven to one at a lot of spots,

632
00:28:38,880 --> 00:28:41,200
Speaker 4: and there are still win totals out around four and

633
00:28:41,240 --> 00:28:41,680
Speaker 4: a half.

634
00:28:41,720 --> 00:28:43,200
Speaker 1: To me, it's boomer Bus.

635
00:28:43,280 --> 00:28:45,560
Speaker 4: I mean, their schedule dictates that they may only win

636
00:28:45,640 --> 00:28:47,600
Speaker 4: six games, but all six of those games could be

637
00:28:47,600 --> 00:28:50,560
Speaker 4: in conference. And I love Western Kentucky all the way

638
00:28:50,600 --> 00:28:51,320
Speaker 4: down to seven to one.

639
00:28:51,520 --> 00:28:53,680
Speaker 2: Yeah, it's a good high upside team to buy. If

640
00:28:53,680 --> 00:28:57,040
Speaker 2: that offense works out with Bailey Zappi, the quarterback who

641
00:28:57,040 --> 00:28:58,840
Speaker 2: comes in from Houston Baptist who threw for I think

642
00:28:58,880 --> 00:29:02,520
Speaker 2: five to seventy against Texas Tech. I'll finish up here

643
00:29:02,560 --> 00:29:06,760
Speaker 2: before we get to win totals. I'll throw out Nevada,

644
00:29:06,800 --> 00:29:10,840
Speaker 2: a team that I loved all of last year. Romeo

645
00:29:10,880 --> 00:29:14,080
Speaker 2: Doves is my guy wide receiver, and I mean Carson Strong.

646
00:29:14,600 --> 00:29:16,760
Speaker 2: His game went to the next level in year two

647
00:29:16,760 --> 00:29:18,480
Speaker 2: of that air raid. Now he's in the year three.

648
00:29:18,520 --> 00:29:20,680
Speaker 2: Team brings everybody back, and now you add Cooks, who

649
00:29:20,720 --> 00:29:22,760
Speaker 2: is their leading receiver two years ago. It's gonna be

650
00:29:22,800 --> 00:29:24,760
Speaker 2: harder to double dubs because that's what team started to

651
00:29:24,760 --> 00:29:26,960
Speaker 2: do at the end of the year. And you know

652
00:29:27,200 --> 00:29:29,640
Speaker 2: they have great tight end Carson Strong, NFL prospect, whole

653
00:29:29,680 --> 00:29:32,320
Speaker 2: offensive line is back. They have ten starting seniors on defense.

654
00:29:32,600 --> 00:29:34,320
Speaker 2: I think the defense is gonna be a lot better.

655
00:29:34,320 --> 00:29:36,520
Speaker 2: There's some metrics that say, you know, they were a

656
00:29:36,520 --> 00:29:38,840
Speaker 2: bit lucky here and there last year, But I just

657
00:29:38,920 --> 00:29:42,000
Speaker 2: love this team and I think I actually have them rated.

658
00:29:42,080 --> 00:29:44,520
Speaker 2: They host Stan Jose State. I don't like their win

659
00:29:44,640 --> 00:29:48,720
Speaker 2: total because their road schedule is brutal. I mean it's

660
00:29:48,720 --> 00:29:51,120
Speaker 2: a brutal road schedule all their They're gonna win most

661
00:29:51,160 --> 00:29:52,440
Speaker 2: of their games at home, but that you know they're

662
00:29:52,440 --> 00:29:56,120
Speaker 2: going to Cal Kansas State out of conference. They'll be

663
00:29:56,160 --> 00:29:59,840
Speaker 2: dogs week one against Cal and big depending on what

664
00:29:59,880 --> 00:30:01,680
Speaker 2: you thing of Kanas. They think could easily drop those

665
00:30:01,680 --> 00:30:05,840
Speaker 2: two games. Tough in conference road a schedule, I mean

666
00:30:05,840 --> 00:30:08,120
Speaker 2: they go to Colorado State, to San Diego State, they

667
00:30:08,160 --> 00:30:10,760
Speaker 2: go to Boise, but they do have a buye before Boise,

668
00:30:10,920 --> 00:30:13,360
Speaker 2: which I think could help. But they host San Jose

669
00:30:13,440 --> 00:30:16,080
Speaker 2: State with revenge from last year. I think that they

670
00:30:16,160 --> 00:30:20,440
Speaker 2: ultimately win their division. I have them power rated as

671
00:30:20,480 --> 00:30:22,360
Speaker 2: the best team in the cons. I'm better than Boise,

672
00:30:23,520 --> 00:30:25,720
Speaker 2: not by Buch, but I think I'm lower on the

673
00:30:25,760 --> 00:30:28,360
Speaker 2: market than Boise and higher on Nevada. San Jose State,

674
00:30:28,400 --> 00:30:30,960
Speaker 2: who won it last year, returns to everybody almost but

675
00:30:31,600 --> 00:30:33,600
Speaker 2: they lose their top two receivers, which I think is

676
00:30:33,640 --> 00:30:35,800
Speaker 2: going to be huge, their Baali and Gate the I

677
00:30:35,840 --> 00:30:38,000
Speaker 2: think that those are two big losses. Defense will be good,

678
00:30:38,040 --> 00:30:41,400
Speaker 2: but I think Nevada takes that game at home, and

679
00:30:41,480 --> 00:30:44,160
Speaker 2: I think Carson strong, especially not getting Cooks at that

680
00:30:44,200 --> 00:30:47,840
Speaker 2: offense takes even the next step. Defense is loaded with experience.

681
00:30:48,280 --> 00:30:51,960
Speaker 2: So I played Nevada to win the Mountain West. That'll

682
00:30:52,000 --> 00:30:55,280
Speaker 2: wrap up first down. Let's move on to second down

683
00:30:55,720 --> 00:30:57,600
Speaker 2: and talk win totals. Colin, start us off.

684
00:30:57,600 --> 00:30:59,840
Speaker 4: What you got, Yeah, I'm gonna go Notre Dame under

685
00:30:59,840 --> 00:31:02,000
Speaker 4: a and a half at bet MGM. If you look around,

686
00:31:02,320 --> 00:31:04,120
Speaker 4: you know that's a number that I project should go

687
00:31:04,240 --> 00:31:06,160
Speaker 4: much lower. It was the one of the first win totals.

688
00:31:06,160 --> 00:31:08,560
Speaker 4: I put it into action network AP and this all starts

689
00:31:08,560 --> 00:31:11,160
Speaker 4: with Clark Lee checking out of South Bend and becoming

690
00:31:11,200 --> 00:31:13,720
Speaker 4: the head coach at Vanderbilt. Before the Lee and Mike

691
00:31:13,760 --> 00:31:16,440
Speaker 4: Elcho stints a defensive coordinator, Notre Dame was four and

692
00:31:16,480 --> 00:31:19,440
Speaker 4: eight on the twenty sixteen season. Since then, it's been

693
00:31:19,520 --> 00:31:21,520
Speaker 4: nothing but one of the best defenses in the nation.

694
00:31:21,800 --> 00:31:24,360
Speaker 4: What happened last year and shutting down North Carolina in

695
00:31:24,400 --> 00:31:26,760
Speaker 4: the second half, I mean, the Tar Hills had no

696
00:31:26,880 --> 00:31:30,480
Speaker 4: answers for Clark Lee's defense on Notre Dame. His replacement

697
00:31:30,520 --> 00:31:32,560
Speaker 4: Marcus Freeman, which great.

698
00:31:32,640 --> 00:31:33,240
Speaker 1: I get it.

699
00:31:33,400 --> 00:31:36,520
Speaker 4: He's a great recruiter. He's bringing life to this side

700
00:31:36,520 --> 00:31:38,880
Speaker 4: of the defense. He wants to simplify the defense. Make

701
00:31:38,920 --> 00:31:40,920
Speaker 4: it a three, three, five. He's going to run cover

702
00:31:41,000 --> 00:31:44,400
Speaker 4: one or cover three. It's just a big schematic change.

703
00:31:44,400 --> 00:31:46,880
Speaker 4: It's a scheme change for a defensive unit that returns

704
00:31:47,040 --> 00:31:49,480
Speaker 4: just fifty percent. So I don't even have Notre Dame

705
00:31:49,520 --> 00:31:52,240
Speaker 4: even sniffing this wind total. So I'm under on their schedule.

706
00:31:52,280 --> 00:31:55,000
Speaker 4: I mean, their schedule is not easy at all. You know,

707
00:31:55,080 --> 00:31:56,400
Speaker 4: Tommy Reese took over the offense.

708
00:31:56,520 --> 00:31:57,000
Speaker 1: Last year.

709
00:31:57,200 --> 00:31:59,800
Speaker 4: They were thirteenth in havoc allowed, thirty fifth and success rate.

710
00:31:59,840 --> 00:32:02,640
Speaker 4: But now Ian Book is gone. Jack Cone is expecting

711
00:32:02,680 --> 00:32:04,640
Speaker 4: to be a game manager until one of the freshmen

712
00:32:04,720 --> 00:32:07,520
Speaker 4: Drew Pine or Tyler Buckner is ready. Con is essentially

713
00:32:07,520 --> 00:32:10,840
Speaker 4: a throwaway from Wisconsin, and the offense had issues creating

714
00:32:10,880 --> 00:32:13,400
Speaker 4: explosive plays. This is my biggest problem with Notre Dame.

715
00:32:13,720 --> 00:32:16,360
Speaker 4: Michael Meyer. Your tight end might be the most explosive player,

716
00:32:16,920 --> 00:32:19,880
Speaker 4: Kien Williams. Your running back might be the best catcher

717
00:32:20,760 --> 00:32:25,080
Speaker 4: a target in the passing game. So the schedule is loaded. Toledo.

718
00:32:25,640 --> 00:32:28,240
Speaker 4: I love Toledo. I mean their schedule is filled with

719
00:32:28,240 --> 00:32:31,680
Speaker 4: teams that should make a bowl game, Toledo, Cincinnati, Wisconsin,

720
00:32:31,880 --> 00:32:34,720
Speaker 4: teams that struggled recently that are on the rise, Georgia Tech,

721
00:32:34,880 --> 00:32:37,600
Speaker 4: Florida State. The opener against Florida State, that line is

722
00:32:37,720 --> 00:32:39,760
Speaker 4: way too high. That should be more around six and

723
00:32:39,760 --> 00:32:42,800
Speaker 4: not in double digits. So I don't believe in Jack Cone.

724
00:32:43,080 --> 00:32:45,719
Speaker 4: I don't believe in defensive scheme changes. When Clark Lee

725
00:32:45,800 --> 00:32:48,320
Speaker 4: leaves town. And you know, under eight and a half

726
00:32:48,600 --> 00:32:50,960
Speaker 4: is one of the easiest win totals, first win totals

727
00:32:51,000 --> 00:32:51,320
Speaker 4: I made.

728
00:32:52,720 --> 00:32:56,040
Speaker 2: I couldn't agree more. I will be joining you there,

729
00:32:56,120 --> 00:32:59,280
Speaker 2: and that just transitions into one of my Toledo over

730
00:32:59,320 --> 00:33:00,840
Speaker 2: eight and a half. I just closer to nine and

731
00:33:00,840 --> 00:33:05,240
Speaker 2: a half. Team brings back everybody, and I actually am

732
00:33:05,760 --> 00:33:07,800
Speaker 2: okay with where they're gonna be in the quarterback and

733
00:33:07,800 --> 00:33:09,880
Speaker 2: that's really the biggest question with this team, but every

734
00:33:09,880 --> 00:33:12,240
Speaker 2: one of the two deep, with their defense, everybody comes back.

735
00:33:12,400 --> 00:33:15,280
Speaker 2: Their offensive line will be really good, you know Cobak

736
00:33:15,320 --> 00:33:17,280
Speaker 2: in that offensive line. Their running game will be great,

737
00:33:17,600 --> 00:33:19,400
Speaker 2: and there's a lot of questions with some other teams

738
00:33:19,440 --> 00:33:21,920
Speaker 2: in the MAC. I think this is a programming team

739
00:33:21,960 --> 00:33:24,400
Speaker 2: on the rise. They were just so unlucky in close

740
00:33:24,440 --> 00:33:28,000
Speaker 2: games last year. I love Toledo over and a half.

741
00:33:28,040 --> 00:33:29,880
Speaker 2: I won't tell you. I like futures wise until the

742
00:33:29,920 --> 00:33:32,960
Speaker 2: MAC manifesto, But give me Toledo over eight and a half.

743
00:33:32,960 --> 00:33:34,600
Speaker 2: I think this should be closer to nine and a half.

744
00:33:35,440 --> 00:33:37,560
Speaker 4: Yeah, you better bet your asset we're gonna have a

745
00:33:37,560 --> 00:33:40,360
Speaker 4: Toledo money line dog against Notre Dame in their second game.

746
00:33:40,760 --> 00:33:42,720
Speaker 4: I'm gonna pivot and go over to Maryland over five

747
00:33:42,760 --> 00:33:45,200
Speaker 4: and a half. Yes, let's just get this out of

748
00:33:45,240 --> 00:33:46,800
Speaker 4: the way. I'm taking an over five and a half

749
00:33:46,840 --> 00:33:50,200
Speaker 4: with Danny nos as the offensive coordinator, but I expect

750
00:33:50,280 --> 00:33:52,560
Speaker 4: that he is just a clipboard holder because he was

751
00:33:52,600 --> 00:33:56,520
Speaker 4: the quarterbacks coach under Loxley's offensive coordinator duties at Alabama

752
00:33:56,760 --> 00:33:59,720
Speaker 4: in twenty eighteen before Locksley headed off to Maryland and

753
00:34:00,080 --> 00:34:03,360
Speaker 4: even started, you know, going around Tuscaloosa asking where the

754
00:34:03,360 --> 00:34:03,880
Speaker 4: fuck is Dan?

755
00:34:04,000 --> 00:34:04,560
Speaker 1: Where's Dan?

756
00:34:04,680 --> 00:34:06,440
Speaker 4: You know, I couldn't find Daninos because he took off

757
00:34:06,440 --> 00:34:10,520
Speaker 4: from Miami. Tali Tago Ayola returns to an offense. It's

758
00:34:10,600 --> 00:34:13,000
Speaker 4: highly explosive, but as yet to prove it in success rate.

759
00:34:13,320 --> 00:34:15,360
Speaker 4: Maryland has eighty percent of the offense returning with a

760
00:34:15,400 --> 00:34:18,320
Speaker 4: big piece B and wide receiver Dante Demas. The defense

761
00:34:18,360 --> 00:34:20,799
Speaker 4: returns a whopping ninety six percent. The biggest Achilles hill

762
00:34:20,840 --> 00:34:23,880
Speaker 4: is a red zone one hundred and fourteenth and finishing drives. Still,

763
00:34:23,920 --> 00:34:25,879
Speaker 4: this is a team that's slated to have a top

764
00:34:25,880 --> 00:34:28,800
Speaker 4: five unit rank in defensive backfield. If the red zone

765
00:34:28,880 --> 00:34:32,960
Speaker 4: corrects itself from last season, they're gonna get more wins.

766
00:34:33,280 --> 00:34:37,120
Speaker 4: They're comfortable favorites in three games over Rutgers Illinois Howard,

767
00:34:37,400 --> 00:34:39,520
Speaker 4: you can say they're comfortable, and they're in their points

768
00:34:39,520 --> 00:34:42,479
Speaker 4: spread against Kent State, so that's four wins, six point

769
00:34:42,520 --> 00:34:45,040
Speaker 4: favorite over Michigan State. Then it's a handful of games

770
00:34:45,040 --> 00:34:48,160
Speaker 4: that are prime for upset. Short dog to Indiana, Maryland

771
00:34:48,200 --> 00:34:51,480
Speaker 4: can win that game. Short dog to Minnesota. Minnesota's garbage

772
00:34:51,480 --> 00:34:54,279
Speaker 4: on defense, especially on the defensive line. Short dog to

773
00:34:54,320 --> 00:34:56,759
Speaker 4: West Virginia. There's just a lot of ways to get

774
00:34:56,760 --> 00:35:00,200
Speaker 4: to six wins. Maryland making a Bowl would be a

775
00:35:00,200 --> 00:35:02,319
Speaker 4: big deal. There's always going to be motivation there for that.

776
00:35:02,880 --> 00:35:05,000
Speaker 4: And the last game of the season is Rutgers. If

777
00:35:05,040 --> 00:35:08,360
Speaker 4: Maryland is sitting on five wins, that is a perfect

778
00:35:08,560 --> 00:35:10,920
Speaker 4: hedge to play Rutgers to get out of your win total.

779
00:35:11,239 --> 00:35:13,120
Speaker 4: That's the one thing when you play win totals, look

780
00:35:13,120 --> 00:35:14,560
Speaker 4: through who the last game of the season is and

781
00:35:14,600 --> 00:35:16,080
Speaker 4: see if you're gonna be able to hedge it. And

782
00:35:16,160 --> 00:35:17,640
Speaker 4: this is a perfect scenario for that. So I like

783
00:35:17,640 --> 00:35:18,719
Speaker 4: Maryland over five and a half.

784
00:35:20,800 --> 00:35:23,920
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Speaker 6: in Nevada. Thanks for listening. Now back to the show.

815
00:36:48,000 --> 00:36:51,360
Speaker 2: Yeah, nice little transition there is. I'll go Boise under

816
00:36:51,480 --> 00:36:53,840
Speaker 2: nine and their last game is at San Diego State.

817
00:36:54,400 --> 00:36:56,600
Speaker 2: Not going to be an easy game there if you

818
00:36:56,640 --> 00:36:58,719
Speaker 2: want to head. They also have to go to Fresno.

819
00:36:59,000 --> 00:37:02,640
Speaker 2: Should be better this year. They play, as we said before, Nevada,

820
00:37:02,719 --> 00:37:05,040
Speaker 2: Nevada coming off of a Bye. I think they, just

821
00:37:05,080 --> 00:37:07,160
Speaker 2: like the Mountain West, has a lot of experience this year,

822
00:37:07,160 --> 00:37:09,480
Speaker 2: a lot of returning production across the board. I think

823
00:37:09,560 --> 00:37:11,520
Speaker 2: some of these teams at the bottom are gonna be

824
00:37:11,520 --> 00:37:14,640
Speaker 2: even better than they were last year. Just an improved

825
00:37:14,640 --> 00:37:17,399
Speaker 2: conference overall. Wyoming, by the way, is loaded. Now they

826
00:37:17,400 --> 00:37:19,480
Speaker 2: have to go to Boise. But this is a team

827
00:37:19,520 --> 00:37:21,879
Speaker 2: that brings every one of the defense back plus all

828
00:37:21,880 --> 00:37:24,520
Speaker 2: their opt outs. The defense was much better than I thought.

829
00:37:24,600 --> 00:37:27,279
Speaker 2: If Chambers can stay healthy, their running game will be

830
00:37:27,320 --> 00:37:29,000
Speaker 2: great and they get anything in the passing game. They're

831
00:37:29,040 --> 00:37:31,000
Speaker 2: under fifty percent every year, but they're gonna be tough.

832
00:37:31,000 --> 00:37:33,879
Speaker 2: But I assume Boise wins that game. Boise under nine.

833
00:37:34,400 --> 00:37:36,600
Speaker 2: I just think it's a program that's just a tick

834
00:37:36,680 --> 00:37:38,520
Speaker 2: down from where they've been. They used to be, Hey,

835
00:37:38,600 --> 00:37:40,359
Speaker 2: we want to be the New Year's six discussion. Haven't

836
00:37:40,360 --> 00:37:43,520
Speaker 2: been to New Year six games since twenty fourteen, and

837
00:37:43,680 --> 00:37:46,440
Speaker 2: you know, a lot of change the new coaching staff.

838
00:37:46,440 --> 00:37:51,399
Speaker 2: This year, they go to UCF, to BYU, and host

839
00:37:51,480 --> 00:37:55,560
Speaker 2: Oklahoma State. They could lose all three of those games

840
00:37:55,560 --> 00:37:57,960
Speaker 2: and then their ceilings at nine. I think it's just

841
00:37:57,960 --> 00:38:00,759
Speaker 2: a tick hig at nine. Especially sitting I'm higher on

842
00:38:00,800 --> 00:38:05,560
Speaker 2: Nevada and than the market lower on Boise. So I

843
00:38:05,600 --> 00:38:06,960
Speaker 2: think Devada is going to have a great shot to

844
00:38:07,000 --> 00:38:11,279
Speaker 2: win that game in Boise. So I'll go Boise under nine.

845
00:38:11,480 --> 00:38:11,839
Speaker 2: What do you.

846
00:38:11,880 --> 00:38:13,160
Speaker 1: Absolutely absolutely agree?

847
00:38:13,200 --> 00:38:14,960
Speaker 4: Eight point three is my win total on them And

848
00:38:15,239 --> 00:38:17,880
Speaker 4: and this is very much improved you said experience and

849
00:38:17,960 --> 00:38:19,000
Speaker 4: improve Mountain West.

850
00:38:19,040 --> 00:38:20,200
Speaker 1: I'm going to pivot over.

851
00:38:20,719 --> 00:38:23,480
Speaker 4: To Charlotte under five. And I don't like this because

852
00:38:23,480 --> 00:38:26,839
Speaker 4: we love Will Heally. We don't like fading him. He's

853
00:38:26,880 --> 00:38:28,600
Speaker 4: one of the coaches we liked. They're on the rise.

854
00:38:28,760 --> 00:38:31,600
Speaker 4: It's a down year for Club Litt. I mean, it's

855
00:38:31,640 --> 00:38:33,160
Speaker 4: one of our favorite things in the world.

856
00:38:33,239 --> 00:38:36,040
Speaker 2: Is Will Heally, head coach of Charlotte Football, joining us

857
00:38:36,080 --> 00:38:37,799
Speaker 2: out here. It's been a long time since you've been

858
00:38:37,840 --> 00:38:40,400
Speaker 2: able to celebrate a win appropriately.

859
00:38:40,560 --> 00:38:43,640
Speaker 3: How much do you miss Club Litt Well? I am

860
00:38:43,680 --> 00:38:47,400
Speaker 3: missing Club Lit a lot and been working extremely hard

861
00:38:47,560 --> 00:38:50,640
Speaker 3: on my dad bod in the offseason, So look forward

862
00:38:50,680 --> 00:38:52,400
Speaker 3: to being able to be back in there a newly

863
00:38:52,480 --> 00:38:54,440
Speaker 3: renovated Club Lit.

864
00:38:54,560 --> 00:38:56,160
Speaker 4: I got to get some Club Lit gear in here

865
00:38:56,200 --> 00:38:58,440
Speaker 4: behind me on some of these helmets here. But listen,

866
00:38:58,480 --> 00:39:00,640
Speaker 4: they pulled a minus three and a half power rating

867
00:39:00,680 --> 00:39:03,080
Speaker 4: because of what the transfer portal didn't bring in and

868
00:39:03,120 --> 00:39:05,560
Speaker 4: what the returning production is on defense. Just forty seven

869
00:39:05,600 --> 00:39:09,279
Speaker 4: percent of tackles tackles for loss PBUs the ingredients that

870
00:39:09,320 --> 00:39:11,719
Speaker 4: we need for power ratings, they're just not back in

871
00:39:11,719 --> 00:39:13,680
Speaker 4: twenty twenty one for this team. They're well below the

872
00:39:13,760 --> 00:39:16,600
Speaker 4: national average of over seventy percent. It's tough to go

873
00:39:16,600 --> 00:39:19,440
Speaker 4: in and talk about Charlotte's lyneyards considering the entire offensive

874
00:39:19,440 --> 00:39:22,920
Speaker 4: line had COVID last year. They had games canceled, they

875
00:39:22,960 --> 00:39:25,640
Speaker 4: had players sitting out. It was a lingering issue throughout

876
00:39:25,640 --> 00:39:26,960
Speaker 4: the season. So I'm not going to lean on that

877
00:39:27,040 --> 00:39:30,000
Speaker 4: stat because you know it was affected by the pandemic.

878
00:39:30,360 --> 00:39:32,040
Speaker 4: But a success rate of one hundred and fourth and

879
00:39:32,040 --> 00:39:33,560
Speaker 4: havoc all out of one hundred and second is a

880
00:39:33,600 --> 00:39:35,640
Speaker 4: reflection of what was going on and they've got to

881
00:39:35,680 --> 00:39:38,400
Speaker 4: recover from that. And you know, this win total is

882
00:39:38,480 --> 00:39:40,719
Speaker 4: asking for them to be Bowl eligible. So with the

883
00:39:40,800 --> 00:39:43,839
Speaker 4: numbers set at five and I'm well lower than that

884
00:39:43,920 --> 00:39:47,160
Speaker 4: in the threes, you're asking them to win six games.

885
00:39:47,719 --> 00:39:50,880
Speaker 4: The only game I have them comfortably favored in Gardner

886
00:39:50,920 --> 00:39:55,719
Speaker 4: Webb underdog coin flips to Florida International Florida Atlantic. Pick

887
00:39:55,760 --> 00:39:59,839
Speaker 4: them game against Middle Tennessee underdog coin flip against Duke.

888
00:40:00,000 --> 00:40:03,319
Speaker 4: Although I can't see Duke losing this game. I can't

889
00:40:03,320 --> 00:40:06,120
Speaker 4: get close to six wins on a team that might

890
00:40:06,160 --> 00:40:09,719
Speaker 4: have the worst special teams in Conference USA. They're projected

891
00:40:09,719 --> 00:40:13,000
Speaker 4: to have the worst defensive line in Conference USA. I

892
00:40:13,000 --> 00:40:16,040
Speaker 4: don't see them getting to a bowl. When totals at five,

893
00:40:16,200 --> 00:40:18,080
Speaker 4: I make it much lower. Charlotte under five.

894
00:40:19,560 --> 00:40:25,000
Speaker 2: Great case there. I'll move to SMU over six. Look,

895
00:40:25,280 --> 00:40:27,800
Speaker 2: Sonny Dykes has this program edited in the right direction.

896
00:40:27,840 --> 00:40:30,760
Speaker 2: I think that they just signed a top twenty national

897
00:40:30,760 --> 00:40:34,000
Speaker 2: player for next year, receiver who that offers from Bama

898
00:40:34,040 --> 00:40:36,400
Speaker 2: and Texas and Georgia. I think I think it was

899
00:40:36,400 --> 00:40:39,200
Speaker 2: the highest rated receiver in the class. I think who

900
00:40:39,239 --> 00:40:41,040
Speaker 2: I forget his name. I was just reading that today.

901
00:40:41,239 --> 00:40:43,480
Speaker 2: But this is a team did very well in the

902
00:40:43,480 --> 00:40:48,160
Speaker 2: transfer portal. Also, they bring in a starting linebacker from Oregon,

903
00:40:48,719 --> 00:40:52,000
Speaker 2: they bring in a blue chip corner from Florida, and

904
00:40:52,080 --> 00:40:54,719
Speaker 2: everyone is pretty much back. They bring in Masa the kicker,

905
00:40:54,760 --> 00:40:57,080
Speaker 2: who was a lou Grose Award finalists from Washington State.

906
00:40:57,280 --> 00:40:58,879
Speaker 2: So I think they're special teams, which has been bad

907
00:40:58,920 --> 00:41:01,880
Speaker 2: in the past two three years ago will be fine.

908
00:41:02,080 --> 00:41:05,240
Speaker 2: They bring in Siggers, the running back from uh North Texas,

909
00:41:05,239 --> 00:41:09,560
Speaker 2: and the running back room's already loaded, absolutely loaded receivers.

910
00:41:09,680 --> 00:41:12,120
Speaker 2: You're gonna have Rice coming back. Roberston's now healthy. They

911
00:41:12,120 --> 00:41:15,200
Speaker 2: add Calcaterra from Oklahoma. That tight end has concussion issues,

912
00:41:15,200 --> 00:41:17,880
Speaker 2: but if he's healthy, he's gonna rip apart this conference.

913
00:41:18,160 --> 00:41:21,319
Speaker 2: What it comes down to is their quarterback. You know,

914
00:41:21,440 --> 00:41:24,719
Speaker 2: they lost Saint Bruchelle, the ex Texas transfers now in

915
00:41:24,760 --> 00:41:28,640
Speaker 2: the NFL. But they bring in Tanner Mordecai from Oklahoma

916
00:41:28,680 --> 00:41:32,960
Speaker 2: who has played in games. Lincoln Riley's brother the call

917
00:41:32,960 --> 00:41:34,799
Speaker 2: off it's coordinator for resume, your hand picked him. So

918
00:41:34,880 --> 00:41:38,520
Speaker 2: Lincoln Riley quarterback whisper is giving the okay that Mordecai

919
00:41:38,640 --> 00:41:41,800
Speaker 2: is the guy. Great. And also Preston Stone, who is

920
00:41:42,760 --> 00:41:45,879
Speaker 2: just a very highly talented freshman prospect who got there

921
00:41:45,880 --> 00:41:48,879
Speaker 2: in January. If they need him, he's there as well.

922
00:41:48,920 --> 00:41:51,160
Speaker 2: So I'm not worried about the quarterback position. And where

923
00:41:51,160 --> 00:41:54,600
Speaker 2: I think that the best. The biggest bump on sm

924
00:41:54,680 --> 00:41:56,640
Speaker 2: on the one hundred and forty starts on the offensive line.

925
00:41:56,640 --> 00:41:59,360
Speaker 2: The offensive line is spectacular. You could argue that this

926
00:41:59,400 --> 00:42:02,799
Speaker 2: is a top twenty offensive line, a top twenty five

927
00:42:02,920 --> 00:42:06,080
Speaker 2: receiver group, top twenty five including the tight ends, at

928
00:42:06,080 --> 00:42:08,680
Speaker 2: a top twenty five running back room. The offense will

929
00:42:08,680 --> 00:42:13,320
Speaker 2: be fine. The defense has been in the past very aggressive.

930
00:42:13,600 --> 00:42:15,359
Speaker 2: They do force you know, they try to force alle turns.

931
00:42:15,400 --> 00:42:16,680
Speaker 2: But there's a lot of holes, guess. So they bring

932
00:42:16,680 --> 00:42:19,200
Speaker 2: in Jim Levitt, one of my favorite defensive coordinators. Saw

933
00:42:19,360 --> 00:42:21,920
Speaker 2: what he did at FAU last year. I think and

934
00:42:22,200 --> 00:42:24,400
Speaker 2: Levitt wants to play, you know, an aggressive scheme, so

935
00:42:24,400 --> 00:42:27,640
Speaker 2: I think that there's some natural transition there to his

936
00:42:27,719 --> 00:42:28,960
Speaker 2: scheme and what he wants to do. I think he

937
00:42:29,040 --> 00:42:31,440
Speaker 2: plugs up some of the holes. As an experienced defense,

938
00:42:31,760 --> 00:42:37,000
Speaker 2: I think that defense improves tremendously. So SMU over six. Look,

939
00:42:37,000 --> 00:42:39,239
Speaker 2: it's not an easy conference this year. It's not an

940
00:42:39,280 --> 00:42:43,120
Speaker 2: easy schedule. I'm gonna, you know, before we do our

941
00:42:43,200 --> 00:42:45,480
Speaker 2: group of five and when I finalized stuff, I might

942
00:42:45,520 --> 00:42:48,640
Speaker 2: look at SMU to you know, get to the conference

943
00:42:48,719 --> 00:42:52,040
Speaker 2: championship as a flyer on the upside, but I love SMU.

944
00:42:52,480 --> 00:42:55,239
Speaker 2: I think that at the minimum they get to Bawl

945
00:42:55,280 --> 00:42:58,279
Speaker 2: eligibility and you know this bet would push and the

946
00:42:58,320 --> 00:43:00,040
Speaker 2: six is juice. But I think that this is a

947
00:43:00,120 --> 00:43:00,719
Speaker 2: eight win team.

948
00:43:01,120 --> 00:43:03,359
Speaker 4: Oh yeah, I mean, I'm right there with you. You've

949
00:43:03,360 --> 00:43:05,320
Speaker 4: talked me into it so much. Right after this podcast,

950
00:43:05,320 --> 00:43:07,040
Speaker 4: I'm going to be putting in my SMU bet I

951
00:43:07,080 --> 00:43:08,359
Speaker 4: have it at six point nine.

952
00:43:08,640 --> 00:43:10,520
Speaker 1: The Jim Livett higher is not.

953
00:43:10,640 --> 00:43:13,239
Speaker 4: Being talked about enough and what he's done at other programs,

954
00:43:13,280 --> 00:43:15,239
Speaker 4: and well, you know, I think that's going to pay

955
00:43:15,280 --> 00:43:18,240
Speaker 4: off here. I'm going to go to the PAC twelve

956
00:43:18,280 --> 00:43:20,600
Speaker 4: for my final two. I'll start off first with Stanford

957
00:43:20,680 --> 00:43:24,000
Speaker 4: under four. It's at bet MGM at plus one fifteen

958
00:43:24,680 --> 00:43:27,279
Speaker 4: plus one fifteen on under four and I project you

959
00:43:27,880 --> 00:43:30,680
Speaker 4: well under four wins. If you're a fan of sp

960
00:43:30,760 --> 00:43:33,359
Speaker 4: plus they project them at three point seven. So two

961
00:43:33,400 --> 00:43:35,560
Speaker 4: power rating systems they are projecting under four and this

962
00:43:35,600 --> 00:43:37,759
Speaker 4: is plus money. There's a ton of optimism for Tanner

963
00:43:37,840 --> 00:43:40,040
Speaker 4: McKee at quarterback and he should produce, but he'll be

964
00:43:40,040 --> 00:43:42,200
Speaker 4: scrambling for his life. I mean, Stanford returns was forty

965
00:43:42,239 --> 00:43:45,040
Speaker 4: three percent on the offensive side, fifty five percent on

966
00:43:45,080 --> 00:43:47,640
Speaker 4: the defensive side, a rank of ninety third and finishing

967
00:43:47,719 --> 00:43:49,960
Speaker 4: drives maybe in the rear view mirror with Davis Mills

968
00:43:49,960 --> 00:43:53,120
Speaker 4: off to the NFL. But this schedule is unforgiving. There's

969
00:43:53,120 --> 00:43:55,760
Speaker 4: no group of five teams. They're going up against Vanderbilt

970
00:43:55,800 --> 00:43:58,120
Speaker 4: on the road and that's winnable, but that game falls

971
00:43:58,200 --> 00:44:01,680
Speaker 4: between USC and UCLA. Do they care? They host Utah

972
00:44:01,680 --> 00:44:05,120
Speaker 4: on a Friday night six days after playing Washington. Same

973
00:44:05,200 --> 00:44:08,160
Speaker 4: with going to Tempe Arizona State for six days after

974
00:44:08,160 --> 00:44:10,320
Speaker 4: playing Oregon. I mean, this is a top ten schedule

975
00:44:10,320 --> 00:44:13,200
Speaker 4: in terms of difficulty. And I already said earlier in

976
00:44:13,200 --> 00:44:15,759
Speaker 4: this podcast, I don't believe in what Stanford's doing schematically

977
00:44:16,280 --> 00:44:18,759
Speaker 4: can hang in this conference anymore. You have to be

978
00:44:18,840 --> 00:44:20,840
Speaker 4: able to put up instant offense. When I see UCLA

979
00:44:20,880 --> 00:44:23,839
Speaker 4: and USC putting up one hundred and twenty points, you know,

980
00:44:24,080 --> 00:44:25,719
Speaker 4: I'll get to Ucla here in a minute. But you've

981
00:44:25,760 --> 00:44:27,560
Speaker 4: got to be able to score immediately. And that's not

982
00:44:27,719 --> 00:44:30,799
Speaker 4: the Shaw way. So you know, don't be fooled by

983
00:44:30,800 --> 00:44:32,400
Speaker 4: that four and two record. Last year, the Trees had

984
00:44:32,440 --> 00:44:34,600
Speaker 4: a second order win total of minus two point four.

985
00:44:35,000 --> 00:44:38,640
Speaker 4: That's a compilation of postgame win expectancy. Stanford's four wins

986
00:44:38,640 --> 00:44:41,040
Speaker 4: were by a combined ten points. Give me under fourth

987
00:44:41,120 --> 00:44:42,160
Speaker 4: plus money all day.

988
00:44:42,440 --> 00:44:44,840
Speaker 2: Yeah, the only other one I had, I mentioned earlier.

989
00:44:45,120 --> 00:44:47,919
Speaker 2: Is Alabama under eleven and a half. Like I said,

990
00:44:47,920 --> 00:44:49,359
Speaker 2: I think it's an you agree with it. It's about

991
00:44:49,400 --> 00:44:52,000
Speaker 2: a one win too high. I think if they end

992
00:44:52,080 --> 00:44:55,719
Speaker 2: up dropping one of at Florida, I think Florida's down,

993
00:44:55,719 --> 00:44:57,480
Speaker 2: but it'll still be a tough game at text A

994
00:44:57,520 --> 00:44:59,600
Speaker 2: and M, which is the most likely one, or at

995
00:44:59,640 --> 00:45:03,160
Speaker 2: Auburn to close out the year, mainly a math play,

996
00:45:03,640 --> 00:45:05,640
Speaker 2: a fade on some of the continuity With Bama. I

997
00:45:05,640 --> 00:45:07,239
Speaker 2: think they end up going eleven and one. They drop

998
00:45:07,280 --> 00:45:10,000
Speaker 2: one of those games, a whole win of value. So

999
00:45:10,239 --> 00:45:13,320
Speaker 2: I'm rolling with the tide under and I'm gonna.

1000
00:45:13,080 --> 00:45:14,960
Speaker 1: Tell you what, why did you push yourself?

1001
00:45:15,120 --> 00:45:16,319
Speaker 2: What you got to close this out?

1002
00:45:16,920 --> 00:45:20,560
Speaker 4: I am in love every day this summer with UCLA.

1003
00:45:21,080 --> 00:45:23,960
Speaker 4: I have avoided the Chip Kelly bandwagon and love and

1004
00:45:23,960 --> 00:45:25,600
Speaker 4: I think a lot of people have hopped off. And

1005
00:45:26,000 --> 00:45:29,120
Speaker 4: right now this price at seven is screaming that we

1006
00:45:29,160 --> 00:45:30,440
Speaker 4: need to take an over on them. So there's a

1007
00:45:30,440 --> 00:45:33,360
Speaker 4: ton of loved about UCLA from the transfer portal, returning

1008
00:45:33,360 --> 00:45:36,360
Speaker 4: production being ninety two percent on offense eighty four percent

1009
00:45:36,400 --> 00:45:38,799
Speaker 4: on defense for a team that lost four games by

1010
00:45:38,800 --> 00:45:41,239
Speaker 4: a combined fifteen points. That's the reverse of what we

1011
00:45:41,320 --> 00:45:43,960
Speaker 4: just said about Stanford. There is massive improvement here with

1012
00:45:44,000 --> 00:45:46,399
Speaker 4: the offense ranking top thirty five and success rate and

1013
00:45:46,480 --> 00:45:49,640
Speaker 4: finishing drives. Even the defense played a little bin don't

1014
00:45:49,680 --> 00:45:52,919
Speaker 4: break forty fifth in defensive finishing drive, so you could

1015
00:45:52,920 --> 00:45:55,239
Speaker 4: push yards down them on the field, typical you know

1016
00:45:55,360 --> 00:45:57,719
Speaker 4: UCLA game, and then they kind of stiffened up when

1017
00:45:57,760 --> 00:45:59,960
Speaker 4: they got into the red zone. While the defense was

1018
00:46:00,000 --> 00:46:03,040
Speaker 4: outside the top one hundred and success rate, the Bruins

1019
00:46:03,200 --> 00:46:06,520
Speaker 4: were fantastic and limiting explosive plays last year. They just

1020
00:46:06,600 --> 00:46:08,520
Speaker 4: want everything in front of them. They don't want anybody

1021
00:46:08,560 --> 00:46:10,680
Speaker 4: to bust them for big plays if you like yards

1022
00:46:10,680 --> 00:46:14,520
Speaker 4: per play. Defensive coordinator Jerry Asnarro moved UCLA from outside

1023
00:46:14,560 --> 00:46:16,839
Speaker 4: the top one hundred to forty second last season. This

1024
00:46:16,920 --> 00:46:19,600
Speaker 4: is a unit improving on PAC twelve levels. But this

1025
00:46:19,680 --> 00:46:23,239
Speaker 4: comes down to Dorian Thompson Robinson and the reason why

1026
00:46:23,239 --> 00:46:25,480
Speaker 4: I love this over and I have not heard anybody

1027
00:46:25,520 --> 00:46:28,960
Speaker 4: talk about this. I've saw maybe one article about it.

1028
00:46:29,320 --> 00:46:31,160
Speaker 4: I'm just going to say the reason I love UCLA

1029
00:46:31,280 --> 00:46:34,080
Speaker 4: so much. They went out and got Ryan Gunderson as

1030
00:46:34,120 --> 00:46:37,320
Speaker 4: their quarterback coach. A little bit of background on Ryan Gunderson,

1031
00:46:37,400 --> 00:46:41,000
Speaker 4: former Oregon State quarterback, but more importantly, he's been the

1032
00:46:41,040 --> 00:46:45,200
Speaker 4: San Jose State passing game coordinator and coach of Nick

1033
00:46:45,239 --> 00:46:49,160
Speaker 4: Starkle through this San Jose State just revival from the grave.

1034
00:46:49,800 --> 00:46:52,720
Speaker 4: This is a coach that turned Nick Starkle had extreme

1035
00:46:52,760 --> 00:46:55,279
Speaker 4: limitations at Texas A and M and Arkansas into an

1036
00:46:55,280 --> 00:46:59,719
Speaker 4: explosive and successful passing attack with the Spartans. Gunderson is

1037
00:46:59,719 --> 00:47:02,880
Speaker 4: all already been nominated for the Broyles Award, and he

1038
00:47:03,000 --> 00:47:05,840
Speaker 4: was brought in specifically to get Dorian Thompson Robinson to

1039
00:47:05,880 --> 00:47:09,239
Speaker 4: be more efficient and cut out the mistakes. He knows

1040
00:47:09,239 --> 00:47:12,440
Speaker 4: this conference really well from being a Beavers quarterback, and

1041
00:47:12,840 --> 00:47:15,560
Speaker 4: the move for Gunderson on DTR is enough for me

1042
00:47:15,840 --> 00:47:18,400
Speaker 4: to jump on this team and say that DTR is

1043
00:47:18,440 --> 00:47:20,360
Speaker 4: going to stop with the turnovers. He's going to stop

1044
00:47:20,360 --> 00:47:24,200
Speaker 4: with the mistakes. We are going to play havocless football

1045
00:47:24,280 --> 00:47:27,520
Speaker 4: on offense. As the defense improves, and I think Chip

1046
00:47:27,600 --> 00:47:29,719
Speaker 4: Kelly can finally run at the speed that he's all

1047
00:47:29,840 --> 00:47:32,640
Speaker 4: his seconds per play, keep on, continue to increase, you

1048
00:47:32,680 --> 00:47:37,040
Speaker 4: eliminate these mistakes. UCLA is a series player in the South,

1049
00:47:37,200 --> 00:47:40,239
Speaker 4: and so I'm saying over seven here this old Ryan

1050
00:47:40,320 --> 00:47:42,600
Speaker 4: Gunderson as the quarterback coach after what he did at

1051
00:47:42,600 --> 00:47:43,279
Speaker 4: San Jose State.

1052
00:47:43,400 --> 00:47:45,239
Speaker 2: Yeah. I mean they've lost four shootouts last year by

1053
00:47:45,280 --> 00:47:47,800
Speaker 2: combined fifteen points. They're zero to four in games decided

1054
00:47:47,800 --> 00:47:49,680
Speaker 2: by five or last so they were close. They were

1055
00:47:49,760 --> 00:47:52,839
Speaker 2: right there. Their biggest problem was their secondary too. And

1056
00:47:52,920 --> 00:47:55,759
Speaker 2: I think that if Brian knew Norwood, their defensive back

1057
00:47:55,800 --> 00:47:58,120
Speaker 2: coach was brought in last year. This is his second

1058
00:47:58,360 --> 00:48:00,279
Speaker 2: and he played a lot more aggressive man, which is

1059
00:48:00,280 --> 00:48:01,640
Speaker 2: what I think they need to do now. They got

1060
00:48:01,680 --> 00:48:03,360
Speaker 2: burned a lot all over it. I think they were

1061
00:48:03,320 --> 00:48:06,359
Speaker 2: one hundred and twenty seventh and in yards pert temp.

1062
00:48:06,560 --> 00:48:08,439
Speaker 2: But this is year two of that. They bring most

1063
00:48:08,440 --> 00:48:11,719
Speaker 2: of their secondary back. So if that secondary, you know,

1064
00:48:11,760 --> 00:48:13,239
Speaker 2: in this kind of new scheme, in the way that

1065
00:48:13,239 --> 00:48:15,720
Speaker 2: they're going to play, takes a jump as in production

1066
00:48:15,800 --> 00:48:18,279
Speaker 2: as you would expect, then yeah, the UCLA defense on

1067
00:48:18,280 --> 00:48:20,040
Speaker 2: that back end will be a lot better because they

1068
00:48:20,080 --> 00:48:21,120
Speaker 2: can get a lot of sacks and get a lot

1069
00:48:21,120 --> 00:48:25,520
Speaker 2: of pressure. Look out for that Somerville they're freshman defensive end.

1070
00:48:25,680 --> 00:48:27,239
Speaker 2: They can get that. They were just getting burned on

1071
00:48:27,280 --> 00:48:29,239
Speaker 2: the back end too much. I think year two of

1072
00:48:29,320 --> 00:48:31,799
Speaker 2: playing this more aggressive man on the outside. They should

1073
00:48:31,840 --> 00:48:34,319
Speaker 2: be a lot better. So yeah, I don't hate that

1074
00:48:34,320 --> 00:48:34,640
Speaker 2: call all.

1075
00:48:34,680 --> 00:48:34,960
Speaker 4: They were.

1076
00:48:35,120 --> 00:48:37,160
Speaker 2: They improved in net yards for played by two point

1077
00:48:37,160 --> 00:48:39,640
Speaker 2: one year, which is third the third best improvement in

1078
00:48:39,680 --> 00:48:41,560
Speaker 2: all of college football. Second was Nevada, by the way,

1079
00:48:42,080 --> 00:48:44,279
Speaker 2: so I don't hate that at all. All right, that'll

1080
00:48:44,280 --> 00:48:46,480
Speaker 2: wrap up second down, all right, so third down. College

1081
00:48:46,520 --> 00:48:50,320
Speaker 2: Wall Playoff predictions subject to change for about a month away,

1082
00:48:50,719 --> 00:48:54,319
Speaker 2: so these could change, but I'm going to say my four.

1083
00:48:54,400 --> 00:48:57,840
Speaker 2: I'm going with Nevada. I'm kidding. I'm going with I

1084
00:48:57,880 --> 00:49:00,960
Speaker 2: did look at my notes and read about on almost

1085
00:49:00,960 --> 00:49:05,400
Speaker 2: seven Clemson. I think Clemson, even if they lose to Georgia,

1086
00:49:05,680 --> 00:49:08,920
Speaker 2: is winning the ACC and we'll be there again for

1087
00:49:08,960 --> 00:49:13,200
Speaker 2: the million straight year. Same thing with Ohio State. I

1088
00:49:13,200 --> 00:49:15,000
Speaker 2: think Ohio State. Now look, I think have questions for

1089
00:49:15,080 --> 00:49:16,839
Speaker 2: both teams once they get there, but I think both

1090
00:49:16,880 --> 00:49:19,319
Speaker 2: of those are in there again, and I don't like

1091
00:49:19,360 --> 00:49:21,120
Speaker 2: to be predictable, so we'll get a little crazy. I

1092
00:49:21,120 --> 00:49:26,040
Speaker 2: think Alabama misses the Collegewall playoff and it's Georgia that

1093
00:49:26,120 --> 00:49:28,080
Speaker 2: gets there. And I think Georgia gets there either one

1094
00:49:28,080 --> 00:49:31,480
Speaker 2: of two ways. I think they beat Clemson in Week one.

1095
00:49:32,600 --> 00:49:34,920
Speaker 2: The interesting part is they beat Clemson. Alabama also is

1096
00:49:34,960 --> 00:49:37,319
Speaker 2: one loss, and then Alabama beats them, and I think

1097
00:49:37,360 --> 00:49:39,359
Speaker 2: Alabama would end up going. But I'm going to call

1098
00:49:39,360 --> 00:49:45,319
Speaker 2: for Georgia to win the SEC Championship. And look, it's

1099
00:49:45,360 --> 00:49:47,279
Speaker 2: not out of their own possibilities of Texas, A and

1100
00:49:47,440 --> 00:49:50,680
Speaker 2: M can get there as well, and Alabama willn't even

1101
00:49:50,719 --> 00:49:53,520
Speaker 2: be there. So I'll say Georgia and then my final team,

1102
00:49:53,840 --> 00:49:55,680
Speaker 2: I mean, I've said all podcasts have to stay on

1103
00:49:56,160 --> 00:49:59,799
Speaker 2: TAM they get through September, win the Big Twelve. I'll

1104
00:49:59,800 --> 00:50:01,439
Speaker 2: go with a wild gard in Iowa State.

1105
00:50:02,080 --> 00:50:04,640
Speaker 1: So that's a good one. Completely gonna be a conflict.

1106
00:50:04,640 --> 00:50:07,080
Speaker 4: So we do reserve right to change these up until

1107
00:50:07,600 --> 00:50:09,839
Speaker 4: you know, up until right before we get zero podcasts. Well,

1108
00:50:09,840 --> 00:50:12,160
Speaker 4: we'll update these and we're looking for odds too. We'll

1109
00:50:12,200 --> 00:50:14,640
Speaker 4: find some odds on making the College Football Playoff. As

1110
00:50:14,640 --> 00:50:16,319
Speaker 4: I would love to sit here and talk about how

1111
00:50:16,320 --> 00:50:19,120
Speaker 4: I think Coastal Carolina and how I think Cincinnati are

1112
00:50:19,160 --> 00:50:20,880
Speaker 4: deserve it of going to the College Football Plaoff, it

1113
00:50:20,920 --> 00:50:22,960
Speaker 4: is just not going to happen. So if you're looking

1114
00:50:23,000 --> 00:50:26,719
Speaker 4: for you know, crazy, you know, outlandish teams, to make

1115
00:50:26,719 --> 00:50:28,279
Speaker 4: the College of Ball Playoff. I wish there was a

1116
00:50:28,280 --> 00:50:30,840
Speaker 4: system in which a team like Cincinnati and Coastal Carolina

1117
00:50:31,280 --> 00:50:31,799
Speaker 4: could make it.

1118
00:50:31,800 --> 00:50:34,120
Speaker 2: It would be a great year for twelve team playoff. Alabama,

1119
00:50:34,120 --> 00:50:36,360
Speaker 2: get Alabama, Georgia, n Day, and m in there. You know,

1120
00:50:36,560 --> 00:50:39,160
Speaker 2: gett Ohio State and Wisconsin in there. Get Coastal Carolina.

1121
00:50:39,239 --> 00:50:42,680
Speaker 2: Since he get Iowa State and Oklahoma. Get Clemson in

1122
00:50:42,719 --> 00:50:45,640
Speaker 2: one of unc or Miami and let's party.

1123
00:50:45,719 --> 00:50:48,239
Speaker 1: Oh yeah, let's do this.

1124
00:50:48,840 --> 00:50:51,320
Speaker 4: Give me Billy Napier taking a safety on the thirty

1125
00:50:51,360 --> 00:50:53,359
Speaker 4: yard line on fourth and two.

1126
00:50:53,719 --> 00:50:56,319
Speaker 1: So yeah, So I'm going to go, oh and by

1127
00:50:56,320 --> 00:50:59,080
Speaker 1: the way, for a podcast review since Stucky, So everybody

1128
00:50:59,080 --> 00:51:01,520
Speaker 1: should tell Stucky Happy Birthday. You should try to guess

1129
00:51:01,520 --> 00:51:01,879
Speaker 1: his age.

1130
00:51:01,880 --> 00:51:03,319
Speaker 4: I think if you get it correct, he should send

1131
00:51:03,320 --> 00:51:05,640
Speaker 4: you some merch to give us a podcast review. And

1132
00:51:05,719 --> 00:51:07,600
Speaker 4: if you can guess his age, that's tough because he's

1133
00:51:07,600 --> 00:51:09,600
Speaker 4: been posting on cover since he was four years old.

1134
00:51:09,640 --> 00:51:11,960
Speaker 4: So leave that as a review and we'll see what

1135
00:51:12,000 --> 00:51:13,600
Speaker 4: we can send you. But for me, I'm going to

1136
00:51:13,680 --> 00:51:17,600
Speaker 4: go Georgia and Oklahoma. I love both their national title value.

1137
00:51:17,680 --> 00:51:19,839
Speaker 4: I love both of them making it in After that,

1138
00:51:19,880 --> 00:51:21,840
Speaker 4: I'm going to go Ohio State. There is not a

1139
00:51:21,920 --> 00:51:24,640
Speaker 4: roadblock until they get to Wisconsin. I'll have to see

1140
00:51:24,640 --> 00:51:27,360
Speaker 4: what my expectations of Wisconsin are. I think someday Wisconsin

1141
00:51:27,560 --> 00:51:29,840
Speaker 4: is next in line for one of these teams to

1142
00:51:29,880 --> 00:51:32,280
Speaker 4: break into the College Football Playoff in the current format,

1143
00:51:32,640 --> 00:51:34,239
Speaker 4: but I've got to see it too, and then they've

1144
00:51:34,239 --> 00:51:36,120
Speaker 4: got to prove it against Ohio State. And Ohio State's

1145
00:51:36,200 --> 00:51:38,960
Speaker 4: defense is legitimately has a bunch of NFL players running

1146
00:51:38,960 --> 00:51:40,680
Speaker 4: on it right now, and that's good enough to win

1147
00:51:41,239 --> 00:51:45,600
Speaker 4: the Big Ten. So Ohio State, Oklahoma, Georgia. That team

1148
00:51:45,640 --> 00:51:48,400
Speaker 4: that gets left out right now for me is Clemson.

1149
00:51:49,200 --> 00:51:52,880
Speaker 4: I think that they lose to Georgia early on in

1150
00:51:52,920 --> 00:51:55,360
Speaker 4: the season, and then after that they've got to survive

1151
00:51:55,760 --> 00:51:59,200
Speaker 4: not having a pit game, not having a North Carolina game,

1152
00:51:59,280 --> 00:52:02,439
Speaker 4: not you know, dropping one of these, and the health

1153
00:52:02,440 --> 00:52:05,040
Speaker 4: of DJ's obviously got to stay in place. So going

1154
00:52:05,040 --> 00:52:09,440
Speaker 4: in as my fourth team is going to be Alabama,

1155
00:52:09,680 --> 00:52:11,920
Speaker 4: and I'm going to predict that it's an at large bid.

1156
00:52:12,120 --> 00:52:15,240
Speaker 4: Alabama has a history with the College Football Playoff Committee

1157
00:52:15,239 --> 00:52:17,560
Speaker 4: of having one loss as an at large, making it

1158
00:52:17,600 --> 00:52:17,959
Speaker 4: in as.

1159
00:52:17,840 --> 00:52:19,719
Speaker 1: A four seed and winning the National Championship.

1160
00:52:19,880 --> 00:52:23,040
Speaker 4: The College Football Playoff Committee has shown they will not

1161
00:52:23,120 --> 00:52:26,600
Speaker 4: take two loss conference champions. Clemson drops that game to Georgia.

1162
00:52:27,160 --> 00:52:30,399
Speaker 4: I mean, that's tough sledding for a long path. So

1163
00:52:30,600 --> 00:52:33,040
Speaker 4: to me, Alabama gets in is an at large that

1164
00:52:33,080 --> 00:52:34,920
Speaker 4: may be the team I pivot out of. I would

1165
00:52:34,920 --> 00:52:36,719
Speaker 4: love to put Cincinnati in that fourth slot. I do

1166
00:52:36,719 --> 00:52:38,880
Speaker 4: think they're going to go undefeated, but you're gonna have

1167
00:52:38,880 --> 00:52:41,239
Speaker 4: to have two loss Power five champions, and I'm not

1168
00:52:41,280 --> 00:52:42,200
Speaker 4: sure that's going to happen.

1169
00:52:42,280 --> 00:52:44,560
Speaker 2: Here's we'll talk about this more later, but an interesting

1170
00:52:44,600 --> 00:52:51,520
Speaker 2: thought experiment. Cumston loses the Georgia and Georgia loses to

1171
00:52:52,640 --> 00:52:56,959
Speaker 2: Alabama in the SEC championship game. Alabama's getting in, right,

1172
00:52:57,320 --> 00:53:00,600
Speaker 2: albout won the SEC. It's Alabama, so they're in. Clemson.

1173
00:53:00,960 --> 00:53:03,879
Speaker 2: Say they run the table with one loss, they win

1174
00:53:03,920 --> 00:53:08,920
Speaker 2: the ACC championship. Who gets in the ACC champion Clemson

1175
00:53:09,080 --> 00:53:12,040
Speaker 2: or Georgia who lost the c jmship but beat Clempson.

1176
00:53:12,239 --> 00:53:14,840
Speaker 2: You have to take Georgia right with a tougher schedule.

1177
00:53:15,200 --> 00:53:17,759
Speaker 2: I don't know. But then there's there's recency bias. There's

1178
00:53:17,800 --> 00:53:20,719
Speaker 2: a conference champion. That would be a fascinating arm which

1179
00:53:20,719 --> 00:53:23,000
Speaker 2: could happen. They could get crazy. So that's another way

1180
00:53:23,040 --> 00:53:24,960
Speaker 2: that that's another way that Alabama could make it as well,

1181
00:53:25,000 --> 00:53:26,520
Speaker 2: not even just as in that large and Georgia.

1182
00:53:26,520 --> 00:53:28,680
Speaker 4: And from a content perspective, you get to talk about

1183
00:53:28,719 --> 00:53:31,800
Speaker 4: Dabbo complaining about everything in the world from players getting

1184
00:53:31,800 --> 00:53:33,520
Speaker 4: paid college football.

1185
00:53:33,640 --> 00:53:35,800
Speaker 2: Yeah, by the way, I will talk much more on

1186
00:53:35,880 --> 00:53:38,080
Speaker 2: this on because I think the Sun Belts are fascinating conference.

1187
00:53:38,080 --> 00:53:39,879
Speaker 2: We didn't get to it, but one winter I think

1188
00:53:39,880 --> 00:53:42,080
Speaker 2: you agree on is Louisiana under That was going to

1189
00:53:42,120 --> 00:53:44,279
Speaker 2: be one that I didn't mention. I'm on Louisiana under

1190
00:53:44,400 --> 00:53:46,759
Speaker 2: under nine and a half. They're loaded. This team got

1191
00:53:46,800 --> 00:53:48,399
Speaker 2: really lucky last year, let's be honest. I mean they'd

1192
00:53:48,440 --> 00:53:50,200
Speaker 2: hit a fifty three yard field goal to beat Georgia

1193
00:53:50,239 --> 00:53:52,880
Speaker 2: Southern app State missed the field goal to beat him.

1194
00:53:52,920 --> 00:53:55,440
Speaker 2: You have Appstate revenge this year. You know, we know

1195
00:53:55,480 --> 00:53:57,200
Speaker 2: in the future they can't in the past, they can't

1196
00:53:57,200 --> 00:53:59,560
Speaker 2: beat app State, but they go to Texas and go

1197
00:53:59,600 --> 00:54:01,800
Speaker 2: to live they lose both those games. They have to

1198
00:54:01,840 --> 00:54:03,840
Speaker 2: sweep to get the ten wins. And I think this

1199
00:54:03,920 --> 00:54:06,200
Speaker 2: is a much improved Belt. You know, teams like Troy

1200
00:54:06,239 --> 00:54:09,560
Speaker 2: and Georgia State, going to Georgia Southern Toot's never easy

1201
00:54:09,800 --> 00:54:12,440
Speaker 2: as a whole. The belt has improved. So give me

1202
00:54:12,760 --> 00:54:14,759
Speaker 2: Louisiana under nine a half. I know they bring back

1203
00:54:14,760 --> 00:54:17,520
Speaker 2: almost everybody, but they did lose their two starbacks, which

1204
00:54:17,520 --> 00:54:20,160
Speaker 2: think is gonna hurt a bit. Very lucky last year,

1205
00:54:20,400 --> 00:54:22,160
Speaker 2: you know, they were plus ten in turn over margin,

1206
00:54:22,280 --> 00:54:25,360
Speaker 2: six and one in one possession games they beat. They

1207
00:54:25,400 --> 00:54:27,320
Speaker 2: also beat Iowa State, which was basically on like a

1208
00:54:27,320 --> 00:54:29,799
Speaker 2: bunch of special teams plays and that's September Iowa State.

1209
00:54:29,840 --> 00:54:32,080
Speaker 2: That shouldn't even count. So that's another one I wanted

1210
00:54:32,080 --> 00:54:32,520
Speaker 2: to bring out.

1211
00:54:33,280 --> 00:54:36,000
Speaker 1: Don't let the latest come between you and the bill.

1212
00:54:36,760 --> 00:54:37,920
Speaker 1: Absolutely in agreeance with you.

1213
00:54:37,960 --> 00:54:40,120
Speaker 4: Bet MGM is at under nine and a half minus

1214
00:54:40,200 --> 00:54:42,399
Speaker 4: one twenty five, I would pay it. I project them

1215
00:54:42,400 --> 00:54:45,439
Speaker 4: at eight point seven. Here's the deal with Louisiana. They

1216
00:54:45,440 --> 00:54:47,680
Speaker 4: are going to be the darlings of Week one money

1217
00:54:47,719 --> 00:54:49,000
Speaker 4: line underdog parlays.

1218
00:54:49,040 --> 00:54:52,120
Speaker 1: Not for me. I don't think they're beating Texas at all.

1219
00:54:52,320 --> 00:54:54,520
Speaker 4: I think that's going to be one of the biggest

1220
00:54:54,600 --> 00:54:56,759
Speaker 4: underdogs that everybody and their mother is going to have

1221
00:54:56,760 --> 00:54:58,200
Speaker 4: a little bit of money on. And I think it's

1222
00:54:58,239 --> 00:55:00,480
Speaker 4: a game that Texas could absolutely roll. I'm not a

1223
00:55:00,480 --> 00:55:02,400
Speaker 4: fan of billion Apier. I'm not a fan of his

1224
00:55:02,440 --> 00:55:03,719
Speaker 4: in game coaching decisions.

1225
00:55:03,880 --> 00:55:04,560
Speaker 1: Stuck is right.

1226
00:55:04,560 --> 00:55:06,520
Speaker 4: There's been some you know, some luck involved with some

1227
00:55:06,560 --> 00:55:08,200
Speaker 4: of their games, some special teams involved in some of

1228
00:55:08,239 --> 00:55:10,719
Speaker 4: their games. And you lose the game to Texas and

1229
00:55:10,760 --> 00:55:12,120
Speaker 4: you're trying to go over nine and a half and

1230
00:55:12,160 --> 00:55:14,279
Speaker 4: you've only got eleven games left. There's no room for

1231
00:55:14,320 --> 00:55:16,880
Speaker 4: air here, and we have no basis on the Coastal

1232
00:55:16,880 --> 00:55:18,959
Speaker 4: Carolina game got canceled last year, which is a shame.

1233
00:55:19,320 --> 00:55:21,080
Speaker 4: If everything came out of COVID. The worst thing is

1234
00:55:21,120 --> 00:55:23,239
Speaker 4: the Coastal Carolina didn't get to play Louisiana in the

1235
00:55:23,320 --> 00:55:25,560
Speaker 4: championship game. So yeah, I have one percent agreeing with

1236
00:55:25,680 --> 00:55:28,880
Speaker 4: you from a mathematical perspective, from a coaching perspective, from

1237
00:55:28,960 --> 00:55:30,719
Speaker 4: everything under on Louisiana.

1238
00:55:30,800 --> 00:55:33,880
Speaker 2: All right, good stuff there, Thanks as always to Colin

1239
00:55:34,440 --> 00:55:37,279
Speaker 2: for joining me. Okay, so this is just kind of

1240
00:55:37,600 --> 00:55:40,440
Speaker 2: administrative things, but it's going to take some action from you.

1241
00:55:40,640 --> 00:55:42,600
Speaker 2: Might I think most of you will actually like the change.

1242
00:55:42,640 --> 00:55:46,520
Speaker 2: In early August, there's gonna be several new podcasts debuting

1243
00:55:46,560 --> 00:55:49,240
Speaker 2: here at Action Network we'll have an NBA betting podcast,

1244
00:55:49,239 --> 00:55:53,800
Speaker 2: one for golf, one for fantasy football with Raybon and Kerner,

1245
00:55:53,880 --> 00:55:56,960
Speaker 2: and we'll also have one just dedicated for college football

1246
00:55:57,040 --> 00:55:59,600
Speaker 2: and basketball betting. So if you'd like to listen to us,

1247
00:56:00,000 --> 00:56:01,719
Speaker 2: you have to do is just subscribe that. We're basically

1248
00:56:01,760 --> 00:56:03,920
Speaker 2: just going to have separate channels and then that way,

1249
00:56:04,120 --> 00:56:06,799
Speaker 2: you know, if you don't like golf betting or fantasy like,

1250
00:56:06,880 --> 00:56:09,120
Speaker 2: just all your college football and college basketballpisodes are going

1251
00:56:09,120 --> 00:56:10,319
Speaker 2: to be on that channel. You know, we have an

1252
00:56:10,440 --> 00:56:12,120
Speaker 2: NFL one, so if you want to hear the two

1253
00:56:12,160 --> 00:56:14,520
Speaker 2: of us talking college football this season, essentially you'll just

1254
00:56:14,520 --> 00:56:16,680
Speaker 2: need to subscribe to a new podcast. We'll have all

1255
00:56:16,719 --> 00:56:19,120
Speaker 2: the details when that happens. It'll happen sometime in August,

1256
00:56:19,840 --> 00:56:23,839
Speaker 2: and then please we'll get you guys incentives to subscribe

1257
00:56:23,920 --> 00:56:27,840
Speaker 2: and lead reviews and all that jazz. So but the

1258
00:56:27,840 --> 00:56:30,279
Speaker 2: best part is we have our own podcasts channel. Now

1259
00:56:30,320 --> 00:56:32,920
Speaker 2: we'll be able to release way more college pods every

1260
00:56:32,960 --> 00:56:36,560
Speaker 2: week and just do additional content. And a lot of

1261
00:56:36,600 --> 00:56:37,920
Speaker 2: you have been asking about it for a while, so

1262
00:56:38,000 --> 00:56:39,040
Speaker 2: stay to the general nation.

1263
00:56:39,120 --> 00:56:42,319
Speaker 4: Get a college specific channel for our podcast is going

1264
00:56:42,400 --> 00:56:44,160
Speaker 4: to be fantastic. It's going to be continue to be

1265
00:56:44,640 --> 00:56:47,400
Speaker 4: you and me doing our weekly previews. Continue to be

1266
00:56:47,440 --> 00:56:50,160
Speaker 4: our weekend recap. There's going to be maybe some stuff

1267
00:56:50,160 --> 00:56:52,080
Speaker 4: that I'll go out there and just start rambling for

1268
00:56:52,120 --> 00:56:54,160
Speaker 4: thirty minutes. Maybe stuff comes and rambles with me for

1269
00:56:54,160 --> 00:56:56,120
Speaker 4: thirty minutes. As much as we can shove into the

1270
00:56:56,200 --> 00:56:58,080
Speaker 4: college feed. We're going to do, and when the time

1271
00:56:58,120 --> 00:56:59,719
Speaker 4: is ready, we'll tell everybody to switch over.

1272
00:57:00,000 --> 00:57:01,840
Speaker 2: Great stuff all around. I'm excited we'll be back, and

1273
00:57:01,840 --> 00:57:04,680
Speaker 2: then we're just gonna keep them rolling through week zero

1274
00:57:04,840 --> 00:57:06,880
Speaker 2: with all your Power five and Group of five previews.

1275
00:57:06,880 --> 00:57:10,200
Speaker 2: You appreciate you listening. Make sure you subscribe, unsubscribe, leave

1276
00:57:10,239 --> 00:57:12,840
Speaker 2: a review. Guess my birthday you can, we'll send you

1277
00:57:12,960 --> 00:57:15,520
Speaker 2: merch my age. I should say, yeah. I look forward

1278
00:57:15,560 --> 00:57:18,479
Speaker 2: to hopefully a profitable season. We'll have a lot of fun,

1279
00:57:18,680 --> 00:57:21,840
Speaker 2: a lot of voicemails and bad beats and mirk covers

1280
00:57:21,880 --> 00:57:24,240
Speaker 2: and all that good stuff. It's good to be back.

1281
00:57:24,480 --> 00:57:28,440
Speaker 2: Thanks again for listening, and we'll catch you all later years.

1282
00:57:29,000 --> 00:57:29,480
Speaker 1: Peace out.