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Speaker 1: Welcome to the Favorites, the podcast presented by BET three

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Speaker 1: sixty five. We are part of the Volume podcast Network.

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Speaker 1: I am Chad Mellman of the Action Network. Today is

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Speaker 1: our Tuesday, Week ten episode where we break down the

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Speaker 1: entire slate of NFL games. We will discuss our exec

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Speaker 1: decision and our assignment says and start to narrow down

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Speaker 1: the options for our five phaves to put into the

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Speaker 1: Favorites Podcast one hundred thousand dollars Pro Football Pick Them contest.

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Speaker 1: We went two and three this past week, a miraculous

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Speaker 1: two and three. It came down to rookie quarterbacks twelve

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Speaker 1: second scramble that turned into a touchdown covering play, Thank you,

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Speaker 1: Drake May and a veteran quarterback's overtime bomb that turned

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Speaker 1: into a one handed game winning in game covering catch.

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Speaker 1: Thank you as always, Matthew Stafford that our Favite Friends

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Speaker 1: is betting in a nutshell live from our Tommy John

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Speaker 1: Holmes Studios. I'm joined as always, buy my co host,

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Speaker 1: my companion Mike and padre My BFF Professional Better Sigmon

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Speaker 1: Hunter at us.

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Speaker 2: I'm ed, Chad. How are we doing? My man?

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Speaker 1: Big Day? Big Day? You know what today is Yeah.

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Speaker 2: No, It's biggest day of the year for many of us,

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Speaker 2: isn't it.

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Speaker 1: I think I know what you're talking about. Do you

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Speaker 1: know what you're talking about? Yeah, trade deadline, trade deadline.

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Speaker 1: It's rocking and rolling right now. We've got Marshaun Lattimore

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Speaker 1: leaving the Saints, yeah, one to the Commanders. We got

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Speaker 1: Mike Williams leaving the Jets, He's going to the Steelers.

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Speaker 1: We've got Zadarius Smith leaving the brown leaving the Browns,

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Speaker 1: He's going to Debt Dot Dot dot the Lions. Like,

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Speaker 1: there's a lot of stuff going on. We're definitely going

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Speaker 1: to discuss those moves. Do we think they have any impact?

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Speaker 1: Because what's interesting is all of these guys have gone

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Speaker 1: to teams that are contending. All of these guys have

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Speaker 1: gone to teams that are involved in games this weekend

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Speaker 1: where the numbers might be showing an edge one way

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Speaker 1: or the other. So how will these moves impact, if

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Speaker 1: at all, our opinions on these games? You know what

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Speaker 1: I'm saying.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I was gonna say, are there any teams You're

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Speaker 2: surprised I haven't made moves? Right now? For me? Houston

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Speaker 2: jumps out I'm shocked they've not made a single move.

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Speaker 2: I mean, I guess they know they're gonna get guys back,

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Speaker 2: but like their offensive line has been brutal, and you think,

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Speaker 2: you know, maybe just try to get one of these

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Speaker 2: cheap receivers. Like there seems like there's a lot of

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Speaker 2: guys out there that teams are willing to move right now,

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Speaker 2: so they're eyeing that pops out to me of like

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Speaker 2: a lot of teams that made moves today and they're

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Speaker 2: the one at the top of their division that hasn't.

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Speaker 2: That's a little shock. And where we've seen the Bills

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Speaker 2: make a move, we've seen the Chiefs make a move,

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Speaker 2: We've seen the lines make them move, Like these are

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Speaker 2: the teams that are the same level as them. Like

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Speaker 2: that's that's just it's interesting they haven't made a move Houston,

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Speaker 2: where they were so aggressive this past offseason.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, but they've been really interesting in how they're managing

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Speaker 1: their draft picks, and they probably look at what they

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Speaker 1: have and are thinking, Okay, we're a really talented team.

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Speaker 1: We can probably win our division. We believe we can

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Speaker 1: win our division without having to make the desperation move.

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Speaker 1: Whereas if you look at the Commanders, they're still locked

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Speaker 1: in a race with the Eagles. If you look at

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Speaker 1: the Lions, they know they're going to have a hole

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Speaker 1: at the edge without Aiden Hutchinson for the rest of

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Speaker 1: the year. So if you look at the Steelers, they're

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Speaker 1: going to be locked in a race if they're lucky

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Speaker 1: with the Ravens. So I can see why the why

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Speaker 1: the Texans would hold off for a minute because they

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Speaker 1: probably feel like they can at least win their division

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Speaker 1: and probably not going to be in contention for a

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Speaker 1: buye so it might be worth it to hold. Pat Simon,

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Speaker 1: what the public has done the past few weeks is

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Speaker 1: nothing short of historic. In a moment, will recap the

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Speaker 1: week nine results in our contest, will announce the winner

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Speaker 1: of our big weekly cash prize. If you haven't yet,

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Speaker 1: be sure to sign up for the Free Favorites Podcast

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Speaker 1: one hundred thousand dollars pro football pick and contest presented

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Speaker 1: by Bet three five. Visit Favorites dot actionnetwork dot com.

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Speaker 1: As a reminder, the Favorites podcast is presented by bet

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Speaker 1: three sixty five and now new BET three sixty five.

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Speaker 1: Customers get one hundred and fifty dollars in bonus bets.

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Speaker 1: When you bet five dollars, sign up using promo code Favorites,

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Speaker 1: Those bonus bets can be used on spreads, totals, player props, futures,

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Speaker 1: and more. Whatever the moment, It's never ordinary. At bet

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Speaker 1: three six five, must be twenty one or older and

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Speaker 1: present in Arizona, Colorado, Indiana, Iowa, Louisiana, North Carolina, New Jersey, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia,

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Speaker 1: or eighteen and older in Kentucky. Gambling problem called one

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Speaker 1: eight hundred gambler or one eight hundred bets off in

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Speaker 1: Iowa terms, conditioned restrictions apply. Congrats week nine first place

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Speaker 1: winner Jay Shively. Jay went five to zero, missed the

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Speaker 1: Monday Night football tiebreaker by one yard. He takes home

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Speaker 1: our weekly thousand dollars prize. Well done. Producer Matt Mitchell

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Speaker 1: has selected his Producer's Cup Award to the entry that

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Speaker 1: finished dead fucking last in the contest. Have you heard

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Speaker 1: about the Lords Loser?

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Speaker 2: He's a lois about he still kids.

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Speaker 1: On Try this week's Producer Cup goes to Robert Ferrer,

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Speaker 1: who went on to five missed the tiebreaker at two

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Speaker 1: hundred and fifty one years. Robert, please email our producer

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Speaker 1: at podcast at actionnetwork dot com to claim your prize.

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Speaker 1: All right, I mentioned it. It's worth reminding everyone when

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Speaker 1: we talk about the public, we're referring to the games

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Speaker 1: they get more than fifty one percent of the betting tickets.

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Speaker 1: You can always track all that in the Action networkapp

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Speaker 1: actionnetwork dot com. You go to the adds pages on

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Speaker 1: the site, the public betting pages. You can see where

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Speaker 1: the betting ticket percentages are. We usually like to fade

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Speaker 1: that side. The past three weeks, the betting public has

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Speaker 1: gone forty three twenty nine and one against the spread.

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Speaker 1: Prior to that, it was winning at a covering at

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Speaker 1: a forty one percent clip. So they are the almost

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Speaker 1: the mere opposites of each other. The first five weeks

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Speaker 1: was the worst the public had ever performed in twenty

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Speaker 1: years of tracking. Past three weeks, it's been quite good.

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Speaker 1: That is what we are battling right now, Simon, are

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Speaker 1: we ready to die? Then to the full slate, because

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Speaker 1: I know we both got an opinion on Thursday night.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I can't wait.

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Speaker 1: Cincinnati Baltimore. We talked about it Sunday. I'm not mistaken.

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Speaker 1: We both love the Bengals here. I feel like this

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Speaker 1: was the game other than the Rams that you mentioned,

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Speaker 1: with the most conviction.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, just on the number, right, it was six and

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Speaker 2: a half. I said this, this can't stay this high.

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Speaker 2: This is going to have to come down, Like, there's

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Speaker 2: no way this number stays as high in the divisional

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Speaker 2: game in our short week. We already talked about our

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Speaker 2: questions about this Ravens defense and can they get healthy

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Speaker 2: and just turn it around in a week's you know,

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Speaker 2: four days, Like that's the tough thing about these these

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Speaker 2: Thursday night games, Like we'll see the injury report, right,

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Speaker 2: I'll have better read on that Thursday morning. But that

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Speaker 2: was really all about grabbing the six and a half

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Speaker 2: early because I knew it was gonna come down. Now

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Speaker 2: it's at six. Saw a couple of books pop five

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Speaker 2: and a half and I kind of jumped back up.

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Speaker 2: So clearly there's professionals that like the other side as well,

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Speaker 2: which makes sense, right. The Ravens have been incredible, and

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Speaker 2: we know how good their offense is. Lamar is playing

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Speaker 2: at the MVP level. So this game is just a

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Speaker 2: really great Thursday game and we're just playing the number.

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Speaker 2: But it's one that I'm happy we can't put in

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Speaker 2: the contest, honestly, chat because I could see us taking

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Speaker 2: this Bengals team and they're just having some type of heartbreak,

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Speaker 2: right They're just this season has not gone the way

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Speaker 2: they planned, even though Joe Burrow is playing at such

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Speaker 2: a high level MVP level. Man, is their defense bad?

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Speaker 1: Yeah, So it's interesting to me. I feel like we

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Speaker 1: would definitely put this in the count.

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Speaker 2: I wouldn't let us say, like, this is what's been

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Speaker 2: burning us this year, this exact game.

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Speaker 1: Well, look the challenge here is, and it's at six.

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Speaker 1: I'd still better at six, by the way, I did

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Speaker 1: bet it at six.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, at six, I bet it at six.

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Speaker 1: And And how much are we taking away from the

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Speaker 1: Ravens being dominant against Bonnicks, right Like, I feel like

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Speaker 1: they're getting I feel like they're getting the benefit of

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Speaker 1: the doubt and a little bit of an inflated number

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Speaker 1: from bookmakers and from the public. And because Bonix couldn't

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Speaker 1: take advantage of their truly awful secondary and their season

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Speaker 1: long inability to stop the passing game. And so remember

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Speaker 1: this is again, this is a team ten days ago

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Speaker 1: that made Jameis Winston look so good people wanted to

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Speaker 1: bet on Jamis Winston following week, Like the transitive property.

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Speaker 1: We got to think about that. We can't just look

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Speaker 1: at these games in sort of one window, right, And

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Speaker 1: so the Bengals number one against pressure, the Ravens defense

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Speaker 1: twenty fourth. The Ravens d has given up forty eight

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Speaker 1: explosive plays this season by far, most in the NFL,

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Speaker 1: twenty eight passes of twenty plus rushing yards. So we

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Speaker 1: know that the Ravens rushing offense will dominate the Beangals

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Speaker 1: like they're pass They're rushing defense is not good. It's

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Speaker 1: not good. So really, to me, this goes back to

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Speaker 1: what we talked about early in the year, like who

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Speaker 1: are the quarterbacks? We don't want to see with the

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Speaker 1: ball when they're down, And if the Bengals are down thirteen,

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Speaker 1: which is possible with four minutes left, yeah, and they

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Speaker 1: have the ball, do I really not want to have

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Speaker 1: bet on Joe Burrow.

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Speaker 2: It's also they played early in the year and we

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Speaker 2: should have won that bet we took the Bengals. I

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Speaker 2: think it was at plus two and a half and

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Speaker 2: it was the wonkiest game ever. Remember Joe Burrow had

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Speaker 2: that interception and that kind of flipped the whole game,

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Speaker 2: like they're about to go down and I'd be up

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Speaker 2: double digits.

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Speaker 1: That's right.

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Speaker 2: So yeah, yeah, so we know this seems on that scary.

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Speaker 2: My old issue chat is just the spread, Like that's

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Speaker 2: why I didn't get when it opened at six and

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Speaker 2: a half. It's like, I know it's a Thursday games,

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Speaker 2: we're getting extra points here for free, but shouldn't I

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Speaker 2: go out the window when it's like these teams are

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Speaker 2: pretty evenly matched in the same division. So that's that

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Speaker 2: was my only hesitation was why is this number so huge?

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Speaker 2: And maybe it is because the books know all the teasers,

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Speaker 2: all the parlays will be tied to this, right, people

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Speaker 2: like tying these games until the Sunday and the Saturday slate.

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Speaker 2: That's just my hesitation here is like, yes, this is

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Speaker 2: very attractive, Dumble. We're not shocking anybody here. Most professionals

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Speaker 2: on the same boat as us. It's like it's a

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Speaker 2: big number. I like that side. I'm just trying to

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Speaker 2: give you the hesitation of why I think I wouldn't

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Speaker 2: make it one of our five. Is just there's all

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Speaker 2: something a little fishy about them giving us this huge

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Speaker 2: of a number. It's as if they're saying this Ravens

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Speaker 2: team is about the role, like going a little bit

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Speaker 2: of a run here, because I agree, the Ravens have

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Speaker 2: not played good well enough this year to get this

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Speaker 2: many points, so I know we have to keep it moving.

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Speaker 2: But it's just it's an interesting number that's this high

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Speaker 2: with the Ravens defense that, like you said, until last week,

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Speaker 2: they hadn't stopped anybody.

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Speaker 1: Home teams Thursday Night this season six and three, but

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Speaker 1: since twenty twenty, it's six and three against the spread

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Speaker 1: since twenty twenty eight and forty two against the spread.

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Speaker 1: Home teams have more than three in the AFC North

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Speaker 1: since twenty eighteen. It's how infrequently it happens because these

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Speaker 1: teams are always so tight. Twelve and twenty against the spread,

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Speaker 1: so interesting. Fans and number favorite Bengals who day New

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Speaker 1: York Giants, Carolina Panthers. Another game we can't put into

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Speaker 1: the contest. It's the Germany game. Zero opinion on this game.

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Speaker 1: Daniel Jones had zero passing yards in the first half.

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Speaker 1: Last week, the Giants dominated time of possession of the game.

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Speaker 1: They ran for one hundred and forty year olds in

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Speaker 1: the first half. They lost, They didn't cover. These are

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Speaker 1: two teams that are just at the bottom ten in

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Speaker 1: every single statistical measure. The European trend in international game says,

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Speaker 1: here we go, take the favorites. Yep, I guess that's

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Speaker 1: what you do.

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Speaker 2: That's what you do, Like, don't ever think it. Just

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Speaker 2: take the favorites, take the number. I agree. Another fishy line, like,

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Speaker 2: in what world should the Giants be a minus five

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Speaker 2: favorite over anybody? It's it's when they're in an international game.

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Speaker 2: So yeah, I'm with you on that one. It's I'm

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Speaker 2: glad we can't put it in either because I unfortunately

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Speaker 2: I do have to bet the Giants here. But I

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Speaker 2: make the line minus six, So right now there's a

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Speaker 2: point of value to this Giants team. But it's simply

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Speaker 2: because it's an international game. I really playing it heavily

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Speaker 2: towards the favorite for international and it's been profit this year,

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Speaker 2: right I think, yeah, yeah, overall it's it's it's really

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Speaker 2: worked out betting just the favorites in this international games.

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Speaker 2: Oh sign, I know I'm a sucker.

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Speaker 1: The New England Patriots are visiting this game. Cargo Bears.

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Speaker 1: Chicago Bears are six and a half point favorites. I've

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Speaker 1: gone deep into the rabbit hole on this game, uh,

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Speaker 1: because this is one of those games where I'm actually

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Speaker 1: trying to fite my intern obias. So I wanted I

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Speaker 1: want to gather like as much as I could, like

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Speaker 1: to make sure I'm not doing anything with the Bears

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Speaker 1: that could be perceived as bitterness because I'm just so disappointed.

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Speaker 1: I'm so disappointed in this team. Like I'm so disappointed

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Speaker 1: that they kept Eberflus. I'm so disappointed when eber Flus

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Speaker 1: has lost the team. I'm so disappointed. There was this

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Speaker 1: viral video going around yesterday amongst Chicago fans where they

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Speaker 1: showed all these plays, one where DJ Moore just walked

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Speaker 1: off the field in the middle of a play, one

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Speaker 1: where he stopped running on it out, you know, like

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Speaker 1: like I needed to find the forest for the trees here.

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Speaker 1: I don't want to fall prey to the notion that

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Speaker 1: like we've seen something special in New England just because

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Speaker 1: Drake May gave us our baby miracle and Caleb Williams

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Speaker 1: is completing fewer than thirty percent of his throws of

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Speaker 1: more than fifteen yards, which is like amongst the worst

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Speaker 1: in the league. But Jared Mayo is a terrible coach. Two,

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Speaker 1: he called the team soft and yeah, got two miracle comebacks.

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Speaker 1: One was a win against the Jets and ot loss

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Speaker 1: to the Texans. Like I know what I think we

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Speaker 1: should do? Yeah that the Patriots.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, but I would say the number dictates if for

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Speaker 2: you're here, like, there's one more there's one book out there,

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Speaker 2: that's the six and a half. If you want the Patriots,

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Speaker 2: go grab it. I'm cool with waiting and let this

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Speaker 2: be bet down. If we can get five and a

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Speaker 2: half on the Bears, I would take that at that

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Speaker 2: once a move that much because this was seven, and

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Speaker 2: I think the number the move is warranted because when

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Speaker 2: this opened at seven, it's like that's that's too many

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Speaker 2: points for this Bears team. That like, like I said,

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Speaker 2: that game against Washington mighty dictate their whole season, Like

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Speaker 2: how are they going to respond to that? So far?

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Speaker 2: Their response is terrible In one game, man, Now, this

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Speaker 2: is the exact spot they need. I told you before

288
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Speaker 2: that game too against Arizona Caleb's splits were terrible, his

289
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Speaker 2: road and home splits. His passing is just like it's

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Speaker 2: It's clearly there's there's something going on there where, like

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Speaker 2: he is more comfortable at home for some reason. And

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Speaker 2: it could be who they played, right, They've played bad

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Speaker 2: teams this year at home and on the road. They've

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Speaker 2: had tougher games. But I think as a whole, the

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Speaker 2: Bears have been good to us back in them at

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Speaker 2: home in this exact spot. So I'll let the public

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Speaker 2: come in and bet this down. But I did want

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Speaker 2: to be on the Patriots, but this point the number

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Speaker 2: is gonna move too much. And at six, which where

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Speaker 2: I pretty much just make the number, I'm not gonna

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Speaker 2: just take the numbers to take. I'm gonna wait for

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Speaker 2: them to be value. So if it's five and a half,

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Speaker 2: I'll definitely go Bears. If it's six and a half

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Speaker 2: on the Patriots, I'll probably end up just passing.

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Speaker 1: Well, that's interesting. I thought you'd be much more adamantly opposed.

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Speaker 2: I wanted to go on the Patriots, but we got

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Speaker 2: a whale. Like you said, we got a whale one

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Speaker 2: last week like this, this Patriots team is not good.

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Speaker 2: Oh yeah, yeah, they're not a good team.

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Speaker 1: We so got away with it. Yeah, last week we

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Speaker 1: did not deserve that. That was one of those where like, yeah,

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Speaker 1: you say you bet the number, you bet the three

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Speaker 1: and a half.

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Speaker 2: You do that's that is the definition of a brother

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Speaker 2: and landed right on three, Like you just play the number,

316
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Speaker 2: you try not to overthink it.

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Speaker 1: Well, that's not what we've been great at this year.

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Speaker 2: You're right line.

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Speaker 1: All right, Well, we'll keep an eye on that that

320
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Speaker 1: Bears game. I don't want to dwell on it as

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Speaker 1: a Bears fan for the five people who's enter the

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Speaker 1: show that are Bears fans. But wow, has this just

323
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Speaker 1: gotten like if you are watching Chicago paying attention to

324
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Speaker 1: Chicago media, this has gotten ugly. Like Heberflus has been

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Speaker 1: revealed as the fraud of a head coach that he

326
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Speaker 1: is and as good as as Ryan Pace has been

327
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Speaker 1: in managing draft capital and making trades, he screwed the

328
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Speaker 1: poo which I'm not fire and Eberflucent and every Chicago

329
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Speaker 1: fan will tell you that it's because the casks are

330
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Speaker 1: cheap and don't want to fire a coach before his

331
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Speaker 1: contract is up and have to pay two coaches. But

332
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Speaker 1: it's gonna cost him. It's gonna bite him in the

333
00:18:13,800 --> 00:18:16,000
Speaker 1: ass on Caleb, it's gonna bite him on his development,

334
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Speaker 1: gonna bite him on losing a year of his contract

335
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Speaker 1: in his rookie and his rookie deal. Just bad Minnesota

336
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Speaker 1: at Jacksonville. This was a fascinating game to me because

337
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Speaker 1: I would say this was the last game I took

338
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Speaker 1: notes on in prepping for the show today because I've

339
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Speaker 1: been trying to think about where's the edge, and like,

340
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Speaker 1: I don't think there's a huge edge in the line.

341
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Speaker 1: It moved from five to four and a half to

342
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Speaker 1: four feels right.

343
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Speaker 2: Yeah.

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Speaker 1: I felt like the pros were taking a stat on

345
00:18:53,720 --> 00:18:57,480
Speaker 1: a big number at five and moved down because that's

346
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Speaker 1: how they felt the number was rated. To me, this

347
00:19:01,960 --> 00:19:04,400
Speaker 1: is really like a transition game. And what I mean

348
00:19:04,520 --> 00:19:08,359
Speaker 1: is we've seen peak Sam Darnold and we've now started

349
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Speaker 1: to see him struggle a little bit more a few

350
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Speaker 1: games in a row, and we've seen the Jags have

351
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Speaker 1: made huge comebacks two games in a row. They haven't

352
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Speaker 1: won those games, but against the Packers and against the

353
00:19:19,400 --> 00:19:23,600
Speaker 1: Eagles like they were in it at the end. So

354
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Speaker 1: then I'm like, are we missed the number. Are we

355
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Speaker 1: fading a Vikings team? Are we trying to get the

356
00:19:30,800 --> 00:19:34,439
Speaker 1: Jags on the upswing? Or am I overthinking it?

357
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Speaker 2: Yeah? And I you know, I talked a couple of

358
00:19:37,520 --> 00:19:40,439
Speaker 2: professional guys who liked the Jags or they liked this spot.

359
00:19:40,520 --> 00:19:43,359
Speaker 2: But I'm I'm totally out on this Jags team. They

360
00:19:43,359 --> 00:19:46,680
Speaker 2: are another team that feels like I get why guys

361
00:19:46,760 --> 00:19:48,679
Speaker 2: like them because they're never out of it, as proven

362
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Speaker 2: by last week. The thing about all the little things

363
00:19:51,359 --> 00:19:52,600
Speaker 2: that it bounced air way, I mean, they were down

364
00:19:52,600 --> 00:19:54,800
Speaker 2: twenty two nothing whenever the score was to get that

365
00:19:54,920 --> 00:19:58,320
Speaker 2: back door cover and even then Trevor Lawrence made such

366
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Speaker 2: a tale where read I can't get over it. Yeah,

367
00:20:00,480 --> 00:20:02,440
Speaker 2: like that could have changed their whole season, that type

368
00:20:02,480 --> 00:20:05,960
Speaker 2: of win. Uh, But yeah, I get why the pros

369
00:20:06,040 --> 00:20:08,480
Speaker 2: like it. Like me and you talk, we've we knew

370
00:20:08,520 --> 00:20:10,520
Speaker 2: eventually the league would catch up to San Donald.

371
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Speaker 1: Right.

372
00:20:10,800 --> 00:20:12,760
Speaker 2: You only can do the things he's great at for

373
00:20:12,760 --> 00:20:15,280
Speaker 2: so long before defenses are like, okay, we'll take that away,

374
00:20:15,800 --> 00:20:17,240
Speaker 2: make us beat us in a different way. And that's

375
00:20:17,240 --> 00:20:19,359
Speaker 2: what teams have been doing. But that was a great

376
00:20:19,400 --> 00:20:21,359
Speaker 2: game by him, Like they were down seven nothing in

377
00:20:21,359 --> 00:20:25,440
Speaker 2: a half, and you know, obviously the defense carried them.

378
00:20:25,440 --> 00:20:28,280
Speaker 2: I don't think the Colts took a snap inside the

379
00:20:28,359 --> 00:20:32,480
Speaker 2: Vikings twenty yard line, which is pretty incredible. But San

380
00:20:32,640 --> 00:20:34,320
Speaker 2: Donald makes big time thres and we talked about the

381
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Speaker 2: whole thing with Jayme and Justin Jefferson, like he just

382
00:20:36,119 --> 00:20:38,320
Speaker 2: has so much trust in him. So this is another game.

383
00:20:38,359 --> 00:20:40,359
Speaker 2: I'll wait, like the pros can keep betting. If this

384
00:20:40,400 --> 00:20:42,359
Speaker 2: gets a three and a half, I'll come in on

385
00:20:42,400 --> 00:20:43,840
Speaker 2: the Vikings. But I'm with you, it's like I don't

386
00:20:43,840 --> 00:20:45,120
Speaker 2: want to touch this number right now.

387
00:20:45,480 --> 00:20:47,479
Speaker 1: Yeah, it feels like we missed the spot. If anything,

388
00:20:47,680 --> 00:20:50,680
Speaker 1: would you have taken it at five, I would.

389
00:20:50,440 --> 00:20:51,879
Speaker 2: Have been the Jags, But I wouldn't have bet it

390
00:20:51,880 --> 00:20:53,879
Speaker 2: with confidence because it's like I still feel like the

391
00:20:54,200 --> 00:20:56,640
Speaker 2: people in the public have overreacted what to that cover

392
00:20:56,760 --> 00:20:59,720
Speaker 2: last week, Like if they if they get rolled, we're

393
00:20:59,720 --> 00:21:01,920
Speaker 2: getting good number, we're getting six, six and a half

394
00:21:01,960 --> 00:21:04,200
Speaker 2: on them, then then this is like, yeah, great spot

395
00:21:04,240 --> 00:21:06,439
Speaker 2: for the Jaguars. Now I think it's gone the other

396
00:21:06,480 --> 00:21:09,240
Speaker 2: way where the Vikings in't look great in that primetime

397
00:21:09,280 --> 00:21:11,119
Speaker 2: game and now the public is kind of like, yeah,

398
00:21:11,160 --> 00:21:12,639
Speaker 2: I'll take the Jags of the points. You're like, this

399
00:21:12,680 --> 00:21:13,760
Speaker 2: feels like a pretty good spot.

400
00:21:13,840 --> 00:21:16,840
Speaker 1: So that's what it feels like. Yeah, it feels you know,

401
00:21:17,040 --> 00:21:20,280
Speaker 1: just at the most base level, it feels like people

402
00:21:20,359 --> 00:21:26,720
Speaker 1: are betting what they saw. I agree, Pittsburgh at Washington.

403
00:21:27,880 --> 00:21:31,200
Speaker 1: Washington is a three point favorite. As an Eagles fan.

404
00:21:31,240 --> 00:21:33,040
Speaker 1: You said before the show, it's upset into you how

405
00:21:33,119 --> 00:21:36,720
Speaker 1: much you love this Washington Commander's team.

406
00:21:37,119 --> 00:21:38,320
Speaker 2: Just Chad, that was off air.

407
00:21:39,280 --> 00:21:43,080
Speaker 1: Well, guess what, there's no such thing. If it's if

408
00:21:43,080 --> 00:21:45,360
Speaker 1: it's if we're seeing it before we come on the air.

409
00:21:45,920 --> 00:21:47,800
Speaker 2: You know, Yeah, I got an image. I'll pull it here.

410
00:21:48,040 --> 00:21:52,040
Speaker 1: I know it's true. You're hardcore Philly. Listen f around

411
00:21:52,040 --> 00:21:54,600
Speaker 1: and find out Simon f around.

412
00:21:55,240 --> 00:21:57,200
Speaker 2: Yeah, I do. I love this Washington team. They're fun.

413
00:21:57,760 --> 00:21:59,560
Speaker 1: They're a really fun team. And now they've traded they

414
00:21:59,600 --> 00:22:03,719
Speaker 1: made the true for Marshawn Lattimore. Will that improve their secondary?

415
00:22:04,320 --> 00:22:06,120
Speaker 2: Yeah? I mean it can't hurt, it can't.

416
00:22:06,160 --> 00:22:08,160
Speaker 1: It's I don't think it's a yeah. Oh my god.

417
00:22:08,240 --> 00:22:12,320
Speaker 1: Now I gotta bet the Commander's at minus three in

418
00:22:12,359 --> 00:22:14,960
Speaker 1: the same way that the Steelers training for Mike Williams

419
00:22:15,040 --> 00:22:17,160
Speaker 1: is and all of a sudden, all right, that did

420
00:22:17,160 --> 00:22:19,960
Speaker 1: it for me, right, This is a Mike Tomlin raw

421
00:22:20,000 --> 00:22:24,600
Speaker 1: Ross spot. What a raw rah Mike Tomlin spot.

422
00:22:24,920 --> 00:22:29,679
Speaker 2: We win the game with this cruel bodies right here today.

423
00:22:29,960 --> 00:22:30,520
Speaker 2: Game to day.

424
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Speaker 1: We decided on Sunday we talked about this game. We

425
00:22:34,119 --> 00:22:35,760
Speaker 1: were gonna wait to see if it get to three.

426
00:22:36,560 --> 00:22:39,679
Speaker 1: Didn't get there Sunday night, didn't get there all day Monday,

427
00:22:39,920 --> 00:22:45,040
Speaker 1: Finally got there about eleven thirty this morning on Tuesday morning.

428
00:22:45,840 --> 00:22:48,960
Speaker 1: The Steelers might they are a big, big public dog

429
00:22:49,520 --> 00:22:51,920
Speaker 1: right now, and the wise guy seem to be favoring

430
00:22:52,640 --> 00:22:58,240
Speaker 1: the Commanders here. Interesting, Tomlin is a dog on the

431
00:22:58,320 --> 00:23:04,439
Speaker 1: road sixty one percent against the spread in his career.

432
00:23:06,000 --> 00:23:09,080
Speaker 1: Why do you say interesting? Did you feel like the

433
00:23:09,080 --> 00:23:12,280
Speaker 1: wise guys would have been on the Steelers automatically here?

434
00:23:13,160 --> 00:23:15,240
Speaker 2: Yeah? I thought it was gonna be public heavy Washington

435
00:23:15,320 --> 00:23:19,280
Speaker 2: the professionals to come back on Pittsburgh. But I mean,

436
00:23:19,320 --> 00:23:20,800
Speaker 2: I think from the chat, I feel like Evan had

437
00:23:20,800 --> 00:23:23,600
Speaker 2: an amazing stat about Tomlin against rookies. He's like twenty

438
00:23:23,600 --> 00:23:26,919
Speaker 2: five and five straight up against rookie quarterbacks. I mean

439
00:23:27,000 --> 00:23:29,000
Speaker 2: that might not be right, Evan, let us know, but

440
00:23:29,520 --> 00:23:31,200
Speaker 2: it's a stat where it's like you can't ignore those

441
00:23:31,240 --> 00:23:34,840
Speaker 2: type of things. Clearly, he knows how to prepare his

442
00:23:34,920 --> 00:23:39,800
Speaker 2: defense to really messed with these rookie quarterbacks. And yeah,

443
00:23:39,200 --> 00:23:44,199
Speaker 2: the fear with this is we are betting on this

444
00:23:44,240 --> 00:23:48,120
Speaker 2: Pittsburgh offense to travel on the road and we don't

445
00:23:48,119 --> 00:23:51,280
Speaker 2: know if that's possible yet. And we've seen Washington defense

446
00:23:51,320 --> 00:23:52,879
Speaker 2: isn't as bad as we thought they were going to

447
00:23:52,920 --> 00:23:56,400
Speaker 2: be coming the season. They've actually been pretty good. So yeah,

448
00:23:56,440 --> 00:23:57,720
Speaker 2: the two and a half, I said it on the

449
00:23:57,760 --> 00:24:00,320
Speaker 2: show and Sunday, if you wanted it, I'd grab Washington

450
00:24:00,400 --> 00:24:02,200
Speaker 2: there because I was like, it's only going to go up.

451
00:24:02,480 --> 00:24:05,880
Speaker 2: And yeah, now, like you said that, the fact that

452
00:24:06,400 --> 00:24:09,800
Speaker 2: there is early professional money coming on that side, I

453
00:24:09,840 --> 00:24:11,879
Speaker 2: don't mind it. Like last week we met a public

454
00:24:11,920 --> 00:24:14,280
Speaker 2: dog and we got away with it and the Patriots,

455
00:24:14,280 --> 00:24:15,800
Speaker 2: and I feel like it's the same spot here. It's

456
00:24:15,840 --> 00:24:18,760
Speaker 2: like I don't think the book's given a proper respect

457
00:24:18,840 --> 00:24:20,639
Speaker 2: to that team, and that team in this case is

458
00:24:20,640 --> 00:24:24,120
Speaker 2: Pittsburgh where their defense does match up well and offensively.

459
00:24:24,160 --> 00:24:25,920
Speaker 2: I do think there are things they're kind of figuring

460
00:24:25,960 --> 00:24:29,080
Speaker 2: out with Russell Wilson before the bye week. Now after

461
00:24:29,080 --> 00:24:30,719
Speaker 2: a bye week, don't we think their offense will be

462
00:24:30,720 --> 00:24:34,640
Speaker 2: better now with him after more time to prepare. So yeah,

463
00:24:34,720 --> 00:24:37,680
Speaker 2: all the points to taking this plus three number.

464
00:24:38,119 --> 00:24:41,560
Speaker 1: I mean, especially now with Mike Williams Simon, this can

465
00:24:41,640 --> 00:24:48,399
Speaker 1: be the game they need to really secure. The compliment

466
00:24:49,240 --> 00:24:54,439
Speaker 1: to George Piketts. This is it. What's interesting to me

467
00:24:54,480 --> 00:25:00,320
Speaker 1: about the Steelers defense. They're not like dominant as they

468
00:25:00,320 --> 00:25:04,440
Speaker 1: have been. Like they're not dominant in pressure rate, They're

469
00:25:04,440 --> 00:25:10,680
Speaker 1: not dominant in expected points per pass. They're like even

470
00:25:11,880 --> 00:25:17,240
Speaker 1: yards per pass, yards per game, completion rate, like they're

471
00:25:17,640 --> 00:25:21,640
Speaker 1: pretty mediocre. There's two things that stand out. I wonder

472
00:25:21,640 --> 00:25:23,440
Speaker 1: if you even care about these, like as a professional,

473
00:25:23,480 --> 00:25:26,960
Speaker 1: better time to pressure the quarterback, meaning the amount of

474
00:25:27,040 --> 00:25:29,600
Speaker 1: time that a quarterback has to throw the ball, which

475
00:25:29,640 --> 00:25:32,720
Speaker 1: they're doing without blitzing. Like they're third best in the

476
00:25:32,760 --> 00:25:37,240
Speaker 1: league and they're doing this without blitzing the quarterback. Obviously,

477
00:25:37,240 --> 00:25:40,040
Speaker 1: they're much different with Alex Highsmith when he's playing, and

478
00:25:40,040 --> 00:25:43,480
Speaker 1: he missed those four games basically most of October. This

479
00:25:43,640 --> 00:25:48,320
Speaker 1: is third game back after missing the month. I think

480
00:25:48,320 --> 00:25:50,200
Speaker 1: this could be the best pass for us that Jaden

481
00:25:50,280 --> 00:25:53,680
Speaker 1: Daniels faces. If you look back at their schedule, it's

482
00:25:53,680 --> 00:25:57,679
Speaker 1: not like they're playing, you know, killer teams. It's the

483
00:25:57,720 --> 00:26:03,840
Speaker 1: Bears and it's the Steelers right now. And he struggled

484
00:26:03,840 --> 00:26:05,720
Speaker 1: against the Bears. I know people in the track get

485
00:26:05,760 --> 00:26:08,920
Speaker 1: mad about that he did struggle against the Bears.

486
00:26:09,440 --> 00:26:12,040
Speaker 2: Yeah, just before we move on, Evan just confirming our chat.

487
00:26:12,080 --> 00:26:15,240
Speaker 2: Tomlin twenty five and five straight up against rookie quarterbacks.

488
00:26:15,400 --> 00:26:18,800
Speaker 1: So come on, do we think this is an EXAC decision?

489
00:26:18,920 --> 00:26:20,639
Speaker 1: Do we think this is a Simon says.

490
00:26:21,520 --> 00:26:23,280
Speaker 2: You can take it exact. I got. Simon says, I

491
00:26:23,320 --> 00:26:24,560
Speaker 2: got something gross for the people.

492
00:26:25,240 --> 00:26:28,480
Speaker 1: I do too. I have four games that I identify

493
00:26:28,720 --> 00:26:30,680
Speaker 1: for my EXAC decision.

494
00:26:30,840 --> 00:26:32,280
Speaker 2: All right, if you don't want this, I'll take it.

495
00:26:33,040 --> 00:26:34,960
Speaker 2: What's that I'll take the Simon says, if you don't

496
00:26:34,960 --> 00:26:39,600
Speaker 2: want it. When Simon says do it, we do what Sence.

497
00:26:39,160 --> 00:26:41,280
Speaker 1: Says, all right, take it.

498
00:26:43,160 --> 00:26:45,840
Speaker 2: Well, you seem like you were excited about your gross games.

499
00:26:46,520 --> 00:26:48,880
Speaker 2: I'm not excited about mine. For the record, it's just.

500
00:26:49,520 --> 00:26:52,280
Speaker 1: I'm not excited about mine. But you know, it's like

501
00:26:53,080 --> 00:26:55,320
Speaker 1: I've had this experience the past few weeks now where all.

502
00:26:55,240 --> 00:26:57,040
Speaker 2: Right, Matt tripping his hair out. All right, Simon says,

503
00:26:57,040 --> 00:27:00,600
Speaker 2: give me Pittsburgh plus three. All right, I can sense

504
00:27:00,640 --> 00:27:01,479
Speaker 2: Mat through his computer.

505
00:27:01,600 --> 00:27:07,680
Speaker 1: Now it's a euphemism, you know, Matt ripping his hair out.

506
00:27:07,680 --> 00:27:11,840
Speaker 2: The Bills make me want something. Throw your hair and

507
00:27:11,960 --> 00:27:13,440
Speaker 2: something throw your hair.

508
00:27:14,400 --> 00:27:15,840
Speaker 1: Come on now, the Bills.

509
00:27:15,880 --> 00:27:17,240
Speaker 2: I'm making it now.

510
00:27:18,040 --> 00:27:21,359
Speaker 1: Buffalo at Indianapolis. Indianapolis is a four point dog. This

511
00:27:21,440 --> 00:27:24,280
Speaker 1: has moved in the Colts direction. Not entirely surprised. This

512
00:27:24,320 --> 00:27:26,320
Speaker 1: feels like a Bilo cell high scenario.

513
00:27:26,400 --> 00:27:26,560
Speaker 2: Right.

514
00:27:26,600 --> 00:27:30,000
Speaker 1: The Colts looked truly offul against the Vikings. The Bills

515
00:27:30,000 --> 00:27:33,840
Speaker 1: overcame a lot of mistakes, had to play to win

516
00:27:33,880 --> 00:27:36,399
Speaker 1: a tough divisional game against the Finns. They've got a

517
00:27:36,520 --> 00:27:41,080
Speaker 1: ninety chance to lock up the division. The Colts are

518
00:27:40,960 --> 00:27:44,720
Speaker 1: a covering machine, third best in the NFL. Four and

519
00:27:44,760 --> 00:27:48,040
Speaker 1: oh at home. I don't want to take the Colts,

520
00:27:48,119 --> 00:27:49,159
Speaker 1: but I feel like I have to do.

521
00:27:50,119 --> 00:27:52,199
Speaker 2: No one wants to take the Colts. You have to

522
00:27:52,280 --> 00:27:54,240
Speaker 2: take the Colts. People. This is what the show is

523
00:27:54,280 --> 00:27:56,960
Speaker 2: all about. It sucks. I hate it too. This is

524
00:27:57,000 --> 00:27:59,600
Speaker 2: gonna be signing says Honestly, it's like, oh, was it really?

525
00:27:59,760 --> 00:27:59,960
Speaker 1: Yeah?

526
00:28:00,040 --> 00:28:02,199
Speaker 2: And it's just it's a brutal I get it. This

527
00:28:02,280 --> 00:28:04,080
Speaker 2: is so brutal. For listeners out there, there's a couple

528
00:28:04,080 --> 00:28:07,040
Speaker 2: four and a halfs. If you can shop around, please

529
00:28:07,080 --> 00:28:09,160
Speaker 2: take the Colts four and a half. This is such

530
00:28:09,760 --> 00:28:11,920
Speaker 2: gonna be a close, ugly game where people a gonna

531
00:28:11,920 --> 00:28:13,760
Speaker 2: be like, how did they cover that number? Like we

532
00:28:13,800 --> 00:28:15,520
Speaker 2: tal talk all the time, you just play the number here.

533
00:28:15,920 --> 00:28:18,240
Speaker 2: I have just at three and a half. I've talked

534
00:28:18,280 --> 00:28:19,920
Speaker 2: a couple of pros who think this should be three.

535
00:28:20,680 --> 00:28:23,480
Speaker 2: So you know, again, I'm a little higher than most

536
00:28:23,560 --> 00:28:25,680
Speaker 2: on this Bills team. I just really love what Josh

537
00:28:25,720 --> 00:28:30,400
Speaker 2: Allen's done with them, and the Colts team is such

538
00:28:30,440 --> 00:28:33,439
Speaker 2: a great bilough. Like we just said, their offense on

539
00:28:33,520 --> 00:28:35,840
Speaker 2: national television couldn't get the ball outside the twenty for

540
00:28:35,880 --> 00:28:39,320
Speaker 2: an entire game like this is such a bounce back spot.

541
00:28:39,440 --> 00:28:43,800
Speaker 2: So I think the last time they played it is

542
00:28:43,840 --> 00:28:46,320
Speaker 2: a crazy memory. I think me and you had bet

543
00:28:46,520 --> 00:28:49,160
Speaker 2: the Colts plus three and a half. Oh no, that

544
00:28:49,200 --> 00:28:51,320
Speaker 2: was last week. Never mind, never mind, I was thinking

545
00:28:51,400 --> 00:28:54,120
Speaker 2: back to that Thanksgiving game. We were up thirty points

546
00:28:54,600 --> 00:28:56,440
Speaker 2: with a three and a half spread with the Colts

547
00:28:56,440 --> 00:28:57,800
Speaker 2: and the Vikings game all the way back.

548
00:28:57,920 --> 00:28:59,760
Speaker 1: Oh yeah, that was that was actually a year ago.

549
00:28:59,800 --> 00:29:02,640
Speaker 2: This, yeah, that was that was crazy, But there's nothing

550
00:29:02,640 --> 00:29:04,400
Speaker 2: to do with this game. But yeah, I like like

551
00:29:04,440 --> 00:29:07,120
Speaker 2: the Colts here, and the biggest thing to me is

552
00:29:07,160 --> 00:29:10,840
Speaker 2: just the run game. Like we saw last week against

553
00:29:10,880 --> 00:29:13,920
Speaker 2: that Vikings team. It really did fall on Flacco. He

554
00:29:13,960 --> 00:29:16,320
Speaker 2: just wasn't completing passes. If he does that a game,

555
00:29:16,480 --> 00:29:18,719
Speaker 2: obviously we're dead in the water. But I still think

556
00:29:18,760 --> 00:29:20,480
Speaker 2: their run team can move the ball, and that seems

557
00:29:20,480 --> 00:29:23,600
Speaker 2: like that's the Bill's weakness. I mean, h n everyone

558
00:29:23,600 --> 00:29:25,920
Speaker 2: in Miami. I think they rash for one thirty or one.

559
00:29:27,040 --> 00:29:29,440
Speaker 2: It just seems like that that's the Bill's weakness, like

560
00:29:29,440 --> 00:29:31,080
Speaker 2: pretty noticeably on defense this year.

561
00:29:31,320 --> 00:29:34,080
Speaker 1: Yeah, what we've said a lot this year is when

562
00:29:34,120 --> 00:29:38,040
Speaker 1: we've bet these bad teams, we're looking for sort of

563
00:29:38,080 --> 00:29:41,920
Speaker 1: some kind of edge in one unit over the other.

564
00:29:41,960 --> 00:29:45,960
Speaker 1: And there is a clear distinction between the Colts run

565
00:29:46,000 --> 00:29:50,520
Speaker 1: blocking scheme. Forget about this past week against a incredibly

566
00:29:50,560 --> 00:29:53,360
Speaker 1: good Vikings defense. That is not who they're playing this

567
00:29:53,400 --> 00:29:56,320
Speaker 1: weekend against the Bills. They have a clear edge in

568
00:29:56,360 --> 00:29:59,280
Speaker 1: the run blocking scheme. So especially there's a run blocking

569
00:29:59,280 --> 00:30:03,040
Speaker 1: offensive line, all right, Colts would have been Simon Says

570
00:30:03,120 --> 00:30:06,560
Speaker 1: instead the Steelers or Simon Says I mentioned at the

571
00:30:06,560 --> 00:30:07,880
Speaker 1: top of the show that we are coming to you

572
00:30:07,920 --> 00:30:10,600
Speaker 1: live from our Tommy John Home studios. Great games start

573
00:30:10,640 --> 00:30:14,520
Speaker 1: with great underwear. Tommy John makes the greatest today. Even

574
00:30:14,560 --> 00:30:18,120
Speaker 1: our producer Matt Mitchell is decked out head to toe

575
00:30:18,120 --> 00:30:21,800
Speaker 1: and is Tommy John stuff. It's clearly taking him to

576
00:30:21,880 --> 00:30:27,960
Speaker 1: an almost dangerous level of comfort. Our sponsor, Tommy John

577
00:30:28,000 --> 00:30:32,080
Speaker 1: makes the most comfortable underwear I've ever worn. They've changed

578
00:30:32,120 --> 00:30:35,000
Speaker 1: my life. When you're truly comfortable, you can bet better

579
00:30:35,040 --> 00:30:36,600
Speaker 1: if you love Simon or not. If you love this show,

580
00:30:36,640 --> 00:30:39,440
Speaker 1: you love Tommy John, get twenty five percent off your

581
00:30:39,480 --> 00:30:42,600
Speaker 1: first order right now at Tommy john dot com slash favorites.

582
00:30:42,840 --> 00:30:47,400
Speaker 1: Save twenty five percent at Tommy John dot com slash Favorites. Okay, Denver,

583
00:30:47,520 --> 00:30:49,720
Speaker 1: Kansas City. I'm not gonna allow you. This was on

584
00:30:49,760 --> 00:30:53,440
Speaker 1: my list of potential exec decisions. You blanted this one

585
00:30:53,440 --> 00:30:56,240
Speaker 1: a bit on Sunday night, and you want to see

586
00:30:56,480 --> 00:31:00,320
Speaker 1: if it got to ten. But I did feel like

587
00:31:00,360 --> 00:31:03,720
Speaker 1: you were hesitant. I will tell you division favorites of

588
00:31:03,800 --> 00:31:07,280
Speaker 1: seven plus, covering just a forty nine percent clip the

589
00:31:07,320 --> 00:31:10,680
Speaker 1: past twenty seasons. Mahomes is a fave of three plus.

590
00:31:11,360 --> 00:31:15,960
Speaker 1: We know that's an ROI positive to bet against, including

591
00:31:16,040 --> 00:31:20,360
Speaker 1: last night Monday Night against the Bucks. So the question becomes, like,

592
00:31:21,200 --> 00:31:25,400
Speaker 1: how much do we worry about this Broncos defense When

593
00:31:25,440 --> 00:31:28,560
Speaker 1: they just played the Ravens, everyone was so high in

594
00:31:28,600 --> 00:31:32,640
Speaker 1: this Broncos d we were not. We're like, this feels trappy,

595
00:31:32,880 --> 00:31:35,760
Speaker 1: So we didn't bet the Broncos and they got filaid

596
00:31:36,080 --> 00:31:39,760
Speaker 1: by the Ravens, right, and so like they've played a

597
00:31:39,800 --> 00:31:42,240
Speaker 1: really easy schedule. It could be a reason why their

598
00:31:42,280 --> 00:31:46,480
Speaker 1: defense has been so good and ranking so well. But

599
00:31:46,560 --> 00:31:49,360
Speaker 1: I do think like it's a very different story in

600
00:31:49,400 --> 00:31:55,000
Speaker 1: the division. The Broncos getting the early money. Unlike last

601
00:31:55,000 --> 00:31:59,400
Speaker 1: week at Baltimore, teams off a blowout of twenty plus

602
00:31:59,480 --> 00:32:04,680
Speaker 1: points fifty seven following a week against the spread, and

603
00:32:06,280 --> 00:32:10,040
Speaker 1: Patrick Mahomes tweaked his ankle numbers moved from nine and

604
00:32:10,080 --> 00:32:12,200
Speaker 1: a half to eight and a half since last night.

605
00:32:13,240 --> 00:32:16,440
Speaker 2: Yeah, and they're on a short week, so everything, You're right,

606
00:32:16,440 --> 00:32:18,080
Speaker 2: everything was plenty of taking this to every team. My

607
00:32:18,160 --> 00:32:21,000
Speaker 2: hesitation is just what you talked about the top. They

608
00:32:21,000 --> 00:32:24,360
Speaker 2: beat up on bad teams this year, and it took

609
00:32:24,920 --> 00:32:27,920
Speaker 2: Baker to play literally a perfect game pretty much in

610
00:32:27,960 --> 00:32:31,280
Speaker 2: that game for the Chiefs, so you have to sweat

611
00:32:31,320 --> 00:32:33,360
Speaker 2: it out right, like, I mean, it was incredible how

612
00:32:33,400 --> 00:32:35,800
Speaker 2: well he played, And that was a game I was

613
00:32:35,880 --> 00:32:38,200
Speaker 2: kicking myself where it's like we knew that number is

614
00:32:38,240 --> 00:32:40,360
Speaker 2: too big. I just didn't know how they were going

615
00:32:40,400 --> 00:32:43,000
Speaker 2: to cover it. And it was just really a miracle

616
00:32:43,040 --> 00:32:45,479
Speaker 2: cover by by Baker. He just played so well in

617
00:32:45,520 --> 00:32:49,480
Speaker 2: that game, made such big throws. Can boon Nicks do

618
00:32:49,520 --> 00:32:52,680
Speaker 2: the same chat like that? That Ravens game, they could

619
00:32:52,720 --> 00:32:56,120
Speaker 2: have covered it, but all their fourth down luck kind

620
00:32:56,120 --> 00:32:58,920
Speaker 2: of ran out on them and all the little things

621
00:32:58,920 --> 00:33:01,160
Speaker 2: that kind of bounced their way. I mean, it might

622
00:33:01,160 --> 00:33:03,240
Speaker 2: have been the first pass or second pass of the game.

623
00:33:03,320 --> 00:33:05,520
Speaker 2: Bnext through, a guy hits the guy's hands, pops her

624
00:33:05,560 --> 00:33:07,760
Speaker 2: up in there. It's a pick by the Ravens. It's

625
00:33:07,800 --> 00:33:09,960
Speaker 2: like it just started off on a bad foot. So

626
00:33:09,960 --> 00:33:12,320
Speaker 2: I'm with you. It's I wanted to be on Denver.

627
00:33:12,360 --> 00:33:14,120
Speaker 2: I was hoping to get a bigger number. Obviously it's

628
00:33:14,120 --> 00:33:16,560
Speaker 2: gone the other way because the Chiefs didn't cover. They

629
00:33:16,720 --> 00:33:20,280
Speaker 2: won barely in overtime. So the movement makes sense. The

630
00:33:20,360 --> 00:33:23,440
Speaker 2: early money coming on Denver makes sense. There is another

631
00:33:23,480 --> 00:33:25,640
Speaker 2: line shot. I'll probably wait. I mean, if it gets

632
00:33:25,640 --> 00:33:27,760
Speaker 2: down to seven, how do I not take the Chiefs

633
00:33:27,800 --> 00:33:31,920
Speaker 2: like they're the better team. It's gonna be the public

634
00:33:31,960 --> 00:33:34,440
Speaker 2: dog of the week, this Broncos team. But at eight

635
00:33:34,800 --> 00:33:37,240
Speaker 2: and a half, I'll take the Broncos right now. But

636
00:33:37,280 --> 00:33:39,080
Speaker 2: I just know in our contest that that's not gonna

637
00:33:39,080 --> 00:33:41,200
Speaker 2: be the number. It's gonna be bet down to six

638
00:33:41,240 --> 00:33:42,280
Speaker 2: and a half, seven and a half.

639
00:33:43,240 --> 00:33:45,040
Speaker 1: I wonder if the Steelers will be a bigger public

640
00:33:45,040 --> 00:33:51,960
Speaker 1: dog than the Broncos just because of the Steelers' history

641
00:33:52,120 --> 00:33:55,680
Speaker 1: and the Broncos just getting blown out by the Ravens.

642
00:33:56,160 --> 00:34:01,600
Speaker 1: I'm not pulling the trigger on exact decision on this game, however,

643
00:34:02,040 --> 00:34:03,880
Speaker 1: but we like the Broncos at eight and a half

644
00:34:04,320 --> 00:34:08,719
Speaker 1: right now. Atlanta at New Orleans. We talked about it

645
00:34:08,719 --> 00:34:13,800
Speaker 1: on Sunday night before Dennis Allen was fired. We liked

646
00:34:14,040 --> 00:34:17,000
Speaker 1: the idea of backing the Saints. The line popped at

647
00:34:17,040 --> 00:34:18,719
Speaker 1: three and a half in a lot of places. It's

648
00:34:18,800 --> 00:34:21,920
Speaker 1: now back down to three home division dogs last two

649
00:34:21,960 --> 00:34:26,120
Speaker 1: seasons forty against the spread, So not a great killing me. Yeah,

650
00:34:26,239 --> 00:34:30,440
Speaker 1: not a great spot there. But now are we in

651
00:34:30,480 --> 00:34:33,840
Speaker 1: for the dead cat bounce? Is the team so thoroughly

652
00:34:33,880 --> 00:34:37,360
Speaker 1: embarrassed it can rally at home against a Falcons team

653
00:34:37,520 --> 00:34:40,840
Speaker 1: whose record is just much much better than its numbers.

654
00:34:41,520 --> 00:34:44,799
Speaker 1: Can they do it without Chris Olave? Can they do

655
00:34:44,880 --> 00:34:49,080
Speaker 1: it as a dog off a loss as a seven

656
00:34:49,320 --> 00:34:52,600
Speaker 1: point favorite. By the way, since two thousand and three,

657
00:34:53,080 --> 00:34:55,800
Speaker 1: sixty percent against the spread for teams in that spot.

658
00:34:57,200 --> 00:35:02,239
Speaker 1: I mean, look, this to me feels like if we're

659
00:35:02,239 --> 00:35:06,080
Speaker 1: going contrarian, if we're going to fade the public, if

660
00:35:06,080 --> 00:35:08,560
Speaker 1: we're gonna do everything that is the opposite of what

661
00:35:10,360 --> 00:35:15,040
Speaker 1: the square thing would be. You take the Saints here.

662
00:35:15,960 --> 00:35:18,560
Speaker 2: No brainer, automatic one of our five. That's what like

663
00:35:18,600 --> 00:35:21,680
Speaker 2: we joked on Sunday Night, but this is literally what

664
00:35:21,719 --> 00:35:24,920
Speaker 2: this show is. It's like we buy low on the

665
00:35:24,960 --> 00:35:28,320
Speaker 2: lowest of teams, and this is the lowest of teams

666
00:35:28,400 --> 00:35:30,920
Speaker 2: right now, and you're selling high one of the highest

667
00:35:30,960 --> 00:35:34,640
Speaker 2: of teams in Atlanta. Like we both agree Atlanta, as

668
00:35:34,680 --> 00:35:37,400
Speaker 2: good as they've been, they're not that great of a team.

669
00:35:37,440 --> 00:35:38,960
Speaker 2: Like you can go back and look at a lot

670
00:35:38,960 --> 00:35:40,920
Speaker 2: of their wins and it's like they could easily lost

671
00:35:41,000 --> 00:35:44,040
Speaker 2: those games. They've just been incredibly fortunate this year. And

672
00:35:44,440 --> 00:35:47,000
Speaker 2: even if they win this one, it's not gonna be

673
00:35:47,000 --> 00:35:49,160
Speaker 2: buy more than three Like this to me feels like

674
00:35:49,200 --> 00:35:52,160
Speaker 2: the very classic whoever wins? I mean when they played

675
00:35:52,160 --> 00:35:53,719
Speaker 2: earlier in the year, what was that a win by

676
00:35:53,800 --> 00:35:57,000
Speaker 2: two Atlanta on a last second field goal? That feels

677
00:35:57,120 --> 00:35:59,040
Speaker 2: right like that feels like the exact same kind of

678
00:35:59,080 --> 00:36:02,279
Speaker 2: scenario here. And Drake London being banged up though it

679
00:36:02,320 --> 00:36:04,600
Speaker 2: is even bigger deal than me than Olive, Like he's

680
00:36:04,640 --> 00:36:08,759
Speaker 2: been huge for that team and especially Kirk on third

681
00:36:08,800 --> 00:36:12,239
Speaker 2: down this year. So hopefully there's no Drake London because

682
00:36:12,239 --> 00:36:14,440
Speaker 2: that would be another big bonus to us, just because

683
00:36:14,719 --> 00:36:17,960
Speaker 2: I don't think Olave is gonna play. And how's that

684
00:36:18,000 --> 00:36:19,799
Speaker 2: we already talking about? How is that not a big

685
00:36:19,840 --> 00:36:22,440
Speaker 2: deal to Deavin Carr, who's not that good of a quarterback?

686
00:36:22,480 --> 00:36:25,040
Speaker 2: I can I can admit that, especially after watching that

687
00:36:25,120 --> 00:36:28,680
Speaker 2: last game, like that Panthers game was brutal. I think

688
00:36:28,680 --> 00:36:30,040
Speaker 2: at the end of the game was fourth and three.

689
00:36:30,080 --> 00:36:31,839
Speaker 2: Instead of just picking up the first down, he throws

690
00:36:31,840 --> 00:36:33,480
Speaker 2: a deep fifty to fifty ball and it's like that.

691
00:36:33,640 --> 00:36:37,359
Speaker 1: I feel like he's done that every time. We've had

692
00:36:37,400 --> 00:36:39,280
Speaker 1: so many games in which we were betting the Saints

693
00:36:39,280 --> 00:36:42,759
Speaker 1: this year, and so we've obviously watched them, and I

694
00:36:42,760 --> 00:36:46,720
Speaker 1: feel like I've seen Derek Carr make that same shitty

695
00:36:47,280 --> 00:36:51,440
Speaker 1: throat fade on a fourth down that ends up being

696
00:36:51,719 --> 00:36:54,680
Speaker 1: un catchable probably three times.

697
00:36:55,200 --> 00:36:57,520
Speaker 2: So here it won't matter because we'll be down by

698
00:36:57,520 --> 00:36:59,120
Speaker 2: two at the time he does it, and we won't

699
00:36:59,120 --> 00:37:01,520
Speaker 2: even care. We'll get the cover. So this will not

700
00:37:01,560 --> 00:37:03,520
Speaker 2: be in my money line round Robin. This will not

701
00:37:03,640 --> 00:37:05,680
Speaker 2: be I won't do that to people because I don't

702
00:37:05,680 --> 00:37:08,080
Speaker 2: think they're gonna win. I think Atlanta they have whatever.

703
00:37:08,360 --> 00:37:10,839
Speaker 2: The Saints don't have to win these games close at

704
00:37:10,880 --> 00:37:13,319
Speaker 2: the end. Atlanta's has it right. Kirk has done it

705
00:37:13,360 --> 00:37:16,680
Speaker 2: this season in multiple different games. So yeah, this is

706
00:37:16,719 --> 00:37:18,239
Speaker 2: not what I'm putting in too much on the money line.

707
00:37:18,239 --> 00:37:20,760
Speaker 2: But plus plus three and a half now I'm definitely

708
00:37:20,760 --> 00:37:21,520
Speaker 2: grabbing this year.

709
00:37:22,000 --> 00:37:24,400
Speaker 1: All right. So this was one of the four exec

710
00:37:24,480 --> 00:37:28,400
Speaker 1: decision games I was thinking about. I'm not tagging it yet.

711
00:37:28,680 --> 00:37:31,040
Speaker 1: San Francisco at Tampa Bay. Tampa Bay is a six

712
00:37:31,040 --> 00:37:33,080
Speaker 1: point underdog, going to be in a short week playing

713
00:37:33,120 --> 00:37:37,719
Speaker 1: at home against the Niners. One thing matters here, Christian McCaffrey.

714
00:37:38,040 --> 00:37:41,080
Speaker 1: He is practicing this week. He is expected to play.

715
00:37:41,480 --> 00:37:43,239
Speaker 1: The line has moved. It was a five and a

716
00:37:43,239 --> 00:37:45,840
Speaker 1: half Sunday night, jumped to six and a half on

717
00:37:45,880 --> 00:37:48,919
Speaker 1: the news. It's down to six at Bet three sixty five.

718
00:37:49,000 --> 00:37:53,600
Speaker 1: Still some six and a half's available. This is this

719
00:37:53,680 --> 00:37:56,400
Speaker 1: is the difference, right, Like the Niners red zone has

720
00:37:56,440 --> 00:37:59,520
Speaker 1: been terrible. Yeah, they have not been able to unlock

721
00:37:59,760 --> 00:38:07,200
Speaker 1: any sort of any good results. And Christian McCaffrey's a huge, huge,

722
00:38:07,360 --> 00:38:10,360
Speaker 1: huge reason why it is a different player by the

723
00:38:10,400 --> 00:38:14,760
Speaker 1: goal line, and so that's why the number has moved

724
00:38:14,840 --> 00:38:18,399
Speaker 1: up in that sort of amongst the league's worst red

725
00:38:18,480 --> 00:38:25,000
Speaker 1: zone offense regress against a middling red zone d for

726
00:38:25,080 --> 00:38:28,879
Speaker 1: the box, some of which we saw last night. Their

727
00:38:28,920 --> 00:38:32,120
Speaker 1: inability to stop teams down by the goal line.

728
00:38:33,040 --> 00:38:34,960
Speaker 2: Yeah, there's still a couple of five and a halfs

729
00:38:34,960 --> 00:38:38,479
Speaker 2: out there as forty nine Ers team. So I would

730
00:38:38,520 --> 00:38:40,759
Speaker 2: say this is probably pretty split between professionals because I

731
00:38:40,760 --> 00:38:42,640
Speaker 2: honestly wanted to be on the Bucks at first, but

732
00:38:42,719 --> 00:38:45,319
Speaker 2: like you said, the McCaffrey thing, it's gonna scare me

733
00:38:45,360 --> 00:38:48,520
Speaker 2: off of it. I just I can't get over how

734
00:38:48,600 --> 00:38:51,360
Speaker 2: well coach that Bucks team is not even defensively offense

735
00:38:51,400 --> 00:38:52,759
Speaker 2: too well. Like there was a couple of plays the

736
00:38:52,800 --> 00:38:55,080
Speaker 2: Chiefs ran the Bucks defense knew the exact plays that

737
00:38:55,120 --> 00:38:57,279
Speaker 2: were about to be run, like they had really done

738
00:38:57,320 --> 00:39:00,239
Speaker 2: such a great, great you know, preparing for that game

739
00:39:00,280 --> 00:39:04,120
Speaker 2: and know the Vita Vey factor it Tinstry McCaffrey choose

740
00:39:04,120 --> 00:39:08,080
Speaker 2: to come back for this game. So yeah, and with

741
00:39:08,200 --> 00:39:09,640
Speaker 2: you Chet, if this is five and a half in

742
00:39:09,680 --> 00:39:11,759
Speaker 2: our contest, I could be swaded to be one of

743
00:39:11,760 --> 00:39:14,000
Speaker 2: our favorites we put in right, Like McCaffrey is just

744
00:39:14,000 --> 00:39:16,719
Speaker 2: such a game changer, especially for this team's identity and

745
00:39:16,760 --> 00:39:19,600
Speaker 2: everything they do. I mean we joked about it. Jordan

746
00:39:20,719 --> 00:39:22,960
Speaker 2: Mason was great for his little role in what he

747
00:39:23,080 --> 00:39:25,640
Speaker 2: was doing, but the season beat him up and cheat

748
00:39:25,680 --> 00:39:27,360
Speaker 2: him out pretty quick. You know why, because he's not

749
00:39:27,400 --> 00:39:29,520
Speaker 2: a freak. He's not a one on one like McCaffrey.

750
00:39:29,560 --> 00:39:32,080
Speaker 2: Like McCaffrey is just such a game changer. So I

751
00:39:32,080 --> 00:39:34,040
Speaker 2: think automatia, we're going to see a giant boost for

752
00:39:34,080 --> 00:39:36,600
Speaker 2: this team with him coming back and at six and

753
00:39:36,640 --> 00:39:37,839
Speaker 2: a half, though, Chat, I don't know if i'd want

754
00:39:37,840 --> 00:39:39,360
Speaker 2: to play in the contest with five and a half,

755
00:39:39,520 --> 00:39:40,880
Speaker 2: I could definitely be talked into it.

756
00:39:41,320 --> 00:39:43,319
Speaker 1: Yeah, I don't think it's to me. I'm actually not

757
00:39:43,320 --> 00:39:45,400
Speaker 1: even thinking about the contest. Right now, I'm thinking, how

758
00:39:45,440 --> 00:39:48,040
Speaker 1: do I like the number at six? And would I

759
00:39:48,160 --> 00:39:52,239
Speaker 1: make it an exact decision for myself at six over

760
00:39:52,320 --> 00:39:55,720
Speaker 1: a game like the Broncos or a game like the Saints.

761
00:39:57,200 --> 00:40:00,759
Speaker 1: That's that's sort of my dividing line here, feels like

762
00:40:02,120 --> 00:40:05,960
Speaker 1: the line of demarcation. Yes, and I'm not quite ready

763
00:40:06,000 --> 00:40:08,520
Speaker 1: to commit to the Niners at six. If I can

764
00:40:08,560 --> 00:40:10,040
Speaker 1: get the five and a half, I would do that.

765
00:40:10,320 --> 00:40:13,680
Speaker 1: We've been talking about this all year, like that delta

766
00:40:13,800 --> 00:40:16,640
Speaker 1: of a half point of the hook means so much

767
00:40:16,680 --> 00:40:20,399
Speaker 1: this year because the spreads are so much smaller. Haven't

768
00:40:20,440 --> 00:40:23,799
Speaker 1: just haven't had a lot of big numbers. So that's

769
00:40:23,920 --> 00:40:28,439
Speaker 1: that's where my hesitation is right now, waiting for a move,

770
00:40:28,880 --> 00:40:33,200
Speaker 1: waiting for a move. Tough brother, So this stuff ain't easy.

771
00:40:34,239 --> 00:40:37,759
Speaker 1: Tennessee at Los Angeles Chargers. Chargers are minus seven and

772
00:40:37,760 --> 00:40:42,000
Speaker 1: a half. I dug deep here, brother, like I wanted

773
00:40:42,040 --> 00:40:46,960
Speaker 1: to back Tennessee so badly. Still, no Will Levis news

774
00:40:48,200 --> 00:40:52,000
Speaker 1: hasn't been confirmed if he's coming back. I actually want

775
00:40:52,040 --> 00:40:56,920
Speaker 1: to bet the Titans more with Mason Rudolph. This defense

776
00:40:56,920 --> 00:41:05,880
Speaker 1: for the Titans. This is when, like media analysis becomes

777
00:41:06,000 --> 00:41:12,120
Speaker 1: so facile. Because they will refer to Tennessee's defense is amazing,

778
00:41:12,200 --> 00:41:15,320
Speaker 1: top five defense, giving up some of the fewest yards

779
00:41:15,600 --> 00:41:21,520
Speaker 1: per game two opponents. It's such a superficial stat because

780
00:41:21,520 --> 00:41:24,680
Speaker 1: if you look at every other stat on a yards

781
00:41:25,200 --> 00:41:29,680
Speaker 1: on a per play basis, the Titans defense is mediocre

782
00:41:29,680 --> 00:41:32,360
Speaker 1: at best, like just not very good, and there's always

783
00:41:32,360 --> 00:41:34,480
Speaker 1: sort of randomness and how you can give up a

784
00:41:34,480 --> 00:41:36,279
Speaker 1: lot of points or a lot of yards and things

785
00:41:36,360 --> 00:41:39,640
Speaker 1: like that. So then I decided I just got a

786
00:41:39,680 --> 00:41:42,400
Speaker 1: pass because, like I feel like it's a little bit

787
00:41:42,400 --> 00:41:45,879
Speaker 1: of inflation on the Chargers because people realize they beat

788
00:41:45,880 --> 00:41:50,239
Speaker 1: a Cleveland team. Everybody wanted to bet. So for me,

789
00:41:50,280 --> 00:41:51,239
Speaker 1: it's a pass.

790
00:41:51,800 --> 00:41:53,520
Speaker 2: Yeah, I find out. I came around though, I remember

791
00:41:53,560 --> 00:41:55,799
Speaker 2: you liked Tennessee, I think Sunday night, and I really

792
00:41:55,920 --> 00:41:58,480
Speaker 2: wasn't pull in because it's just like the Chargers seemed

793
00:41:58,480 --> 00:42:01,359
Speaker 2: like they beat up on bad teams. But at seven

794
00:42:01,400 --> 00:42:03,879
Speaker 2: and a half, I'll throw a penny on it. Bum

795
00:42:03,880 --> 00:42:05,719
Speaker 2: with you. It's like, I don't know if I want

796
00:42:05,760 --> 00:42:07,920
Speaker 2: to want to make this one rather sweat out Flacco

797
00:42:08,200 --> 00:42:09,920
Speaker 2: than sweating out Mason Rudolph And then this.

798
00:42:09,960 --> 00:42:13,560
Speaker 1: Number, yes, by the way, agree, Yeah.

799
00:42:13,160 --> 00:42:15,719
Speaker 2: So I am Benic because you're right, it's such a

800
00:42:15,800 --> 00:42:19,359
Speaker 2: huge number for this Chargers team. But like we said,

801
00:42:19,360 --> 00:42:23,960
Speaker 2: they've been covering like against these bad teams, So I

802
00:42:24,080 --> 00:42:26,720
Speaker 2: like it just basically just because of the number. Nothing

803
00:42:26,760 --> 00:42:29,359
Speaker 2: else for me on this one. It's like I don't

804
00:42:29,440 --> 00:42:31,839
Speaker 2: like the Titans. You could say their defense has been

805
00:42:31,840 --> 00:42:34,400
Speaker 2: al right, where it's like you just said it, have

806
00:42:34,520 --> 00:42:37,520
Speaker 2: they been? It seems like they're okay against backup quarterbacks, right.

807
00:42:37,520 --> 00:42:39,520
Speaker 2: They played Green Bay with a backup, they played Miami

808
00:42:39,520 --> 00:42:40,720
Speaker 2: with a backup.

809
00:42:41,120 --> 00:42:44,160
Speaker 1: Playing the Bears when Caleb Williams still didn't know how

810
00:42:44,160 --> 00:42:46,080
Speaker 1: to tie his shoes in the NFL, whereas now it

811
00:42:46,080 --> 00:42:49,080
Speaker 1: looks like he can tie one shoe, yeah, in the NFL.

812
00:42:49,840 --> 00:42:51,840
Speaker 2: Right, And like they when they got they gave up

813
00:42:51,880 --> 00:42:55,480
Speaker 2: fifty two to the Detroit they get thirty four to Buffalo,

814
00:42:55,560 --> 00:42:57,319
Speaker 2: like so they do play good offenses, they do get

815
00:42:57,400 --> 00:43:00,000
Speaker 2: rolled a little bit. So I'm with you. I'm happy

816
00:43:00,200 --> 00:43:00,560
Speaker 2: on this one.

817
00:43:00,560 --> 00:43:03,480
Speaker 1: For contests, why would we want to talk about Los

818
00:43:03,480 --> 00:43:06,560
Speaker 1: Angeles Chargers and Tennessee Titans when we could talk about

819
00:43:06,840 --> 00:43:13,080
Speaker 1: the New York Jets and the resurgent Arizona Cardinals. One

820
00:43:13,560 --> 00:43:17,920
Speaker 1: a three game win streak, first place in the NFC West.

821
00:43:18,680 --> 00:43:21,120
Speaker 1: They have got they just wont a game running the

822
00:43:21,120 --> 00:43:24,280
Speaker 1: ball at home the week before. They're on the road

823
00:43:25,719 --> 00:43:30,200
Speaker 1: down two scores in the fourth quarter, Kyler Murray dropping

824
00:43:30,320 --> 00:43:35,600
Speaker 1: dimes come back win for the Arizona Cardinals, spoiling Tua's

825
00:43:35,600 --> 00:43:42,960
Speaker 1: return from the concussion. Like this team, why wouldn't you

826
00:43:43,000 --> 00:43:46,480
Speaker 1: want to back them? The Jets are getting the money

827
00:43:46,480 --> 00:43:51,239
Speaker 1: in the tickets right now, and so it's like defade

828
00:43:52,440 --> 00:43:58,880
Speaker 1: the sentiment of the cards, like what we have seen

829
00:44:01,120 --> 00:44:05,920
Speaker 1: to my own eyes be true? Or are we betting

830
00:44:05,920 --> 00:44:06,520
Speaker 1: the Jets here?

831
00:44:07,640 --> 00:44:09,279
Speaker 2: Yeah, it's a tough one for me because I'm just

832
00:44:09,360 --> 00:44:13,080
Speaker 2: I'm clearly off on making a number against this Jets team.

833
00:44:13,120 --> 00:44:15,000
Speaker 2: Like I Houston is a one point favorite last week

834
00:44:15,040 --> 00:44:18,840
Speaker 2: against the Jets. Professional smart money hammered the Jets on

835
00:44:18,880 --> 00:44:21,240
Speaker 2: that Thursday night game. They were clear right, they should

836
00:44:21,280 --> 00:44:24,000
Speaker 2: have beat them by twenty points if not for all

837
00:44:24,040 --> 00:44:27,000
Speaker 2: the nonsets that went on that Jets team. But here

838
00:44:27,040 --> 00:44:30,000
Speaker 2: I have at Arizona minus three, they're only minus one.

839
00:44:31,120 --> 00:44:33,279
Speaker 2: I don't get it. I'm with you. It's like, is

840
00:44:33,280 --> 00:44:35,920
Speaker 2: this not a slam dunk for Arizona? Arizona is really

841
00:44:35,960 --> 00:44:38,120
Speaker 2: good at running the ball. We said, that's why I

842
00:44:38,200 --> 00:44:40,160
Speaker 2: kind of like them against the Bears. Same goes for

843
00:44:40,200 --> 00:44:43,000
Speaker 2: this Jets team. This Jets team is good against the past,

844
00:44:43,000 --> 00:44:46,000
Speaker 2: they are so bad against the run, like comparable offenses

845
00:44:46,040 --> 00:44:48,440
Speaker 2: can run the ball. So is the book saying the

846
00:44:48,520 --> 00:44:50,759
Speaker 2: Jets are more desperate? Chat is are they saying that

847
00:44:50,840 --> 00:44:53,759
Speaker 2: Rogers will will his team on extended rusts to win

848
00:44:53,800 --> 00:44:56,480
Speaker 2: this game? Because I'm with you, I don't really understand

849
00:44:56,480 --> 00:44:59,759
Speaker 2: this number. So I'm happy to sit this one out

850
00:44:59,760 --> 00:45:01,200
Speaker 2: for an because I think I'll still if I want

851
00:45:01,239 --> 00:45:03,200
Speaker 2: to come on Arizona, I'll still get good value on it.

852
00:45:03,760 --> 00:45:06,680
Speaker 2: But I'm scared. I can't lie to each other. I'm

853
00:45:06,719 --> 00:45:09,080
Speaker 2: somehow scared now the Jets after they played one good

854
00:45:09,120 --> 00:45:12,279
Speaker 2: game last week, because I really want to take Arizona here.

855
00:45:12,880 --> 00:45:15,319
Speaker 1: Well, listen, I am too, and I think we've been

856
00:45:15,360 --> 00:45:18,879
Speaker 1: food by the Jets all season long, as has everybody else. Right,

857
00:45:19,280 --> 00:45:23,040
Speaker 1: you see them play decently against a Texans team that

858
00:45:24,040 --> 00:45:26,480
Speaker 1: has a tremendous pass rush. We're going to get into

859
00:45:26,520 --> 00:45:29,520
Speaker 1: the Texans pass rush when we talk about the Lions,

860
00:45:29,960 --> 00:45:32,000
Speaker 1: and so what the Texans did in that game was

861
00:45:32,040 --> 00:45:35,200
Speaker 1: really about what C J. Strout couldn't do right.

862
00:45:35,280 --> 00:45:38,560
Speaker 2: If you saw that game change when Will Anderson went out, Yeah,

863
00:45:38,600 --> 00:45:40,440
Speaker 2: like that's such a huge deal to that defense.

864
00:45:40,920 --> 00:45:43,000
Speaker 1: I think that's exactly what happened. He left the game

865
00:45:43,040 --> 00:45:46,800
Speaker 1: and it became a different contest for them. It's really

866
00:45:46,840 --> 00:45:49,400
Speaker 1: like the Cardinals are just going to be one of

867
00:45:49,440 --> 00:45:55,040
Speaker 1: those teams they're hard to believe in because their defense

868
00:45:55,120 --> 00:45:58,600
Speaker 1: is really really bad. And while their defense look good

869
00:45:58,600 --> 00:46:02,839
Speaker 1: against the Bears, uh, they have not played well most

870
00:46:02,840 --> 00:46:06,359
Speaker 1: of the year and they have not gotten pressure. And

871
00:46:06,480 --> 00:46:11,920
Speaker 1: so what can this team do against Aaron Rodgers if

872
00:46:11,920 --> 00:46:16,760
Speaker 1: he gets any time and he's got Garrett Wilson ballin

873
00:46:17,600 --> 00:46:22,520
Speaker 1: DeVante Adams another week, Like they've got so much talent,

874
00:46:23,320 --> 00:46:26,080
Speaker 1: it just makes you want to believe that they can

875
00:46:26,200 --> 00:46:31,200
Speaker 1: actually do something. It's so frustrating. It's so frustrating, and

876
00:46:31,239 --> 00:46:31,880
Speaker 1: I just looked it up.

877
00:46:31,960 --> 00:46:35,360
Speaker 2: Dnika Ryan said that they won't know anything until closer

878
00:46:35,360 --> 00:46:37,440
Speaker 2: to the end of the week on Will Anderson. So

879
00:46:38,960 --> 00:46:41,720
Speaker 2: you know, whatever happened with him in that game against

880
00:46:41,719 --> 00:46:42,400
Speaker 2: that's huge.

881
00:46:42,400 --> 00:46:44,359
Speaker 1: Against the Lions, that was a big deal.

882
00:46:44,400 --> 00:46:47,279
Speaker 2: And you know Rogers obviously, if he's got time, which

883
00:46:47,280 --> 00:46:49,959
Speaker 2: he should have right against and there's anything that doesn't

884
00:46:50,000 --> 00:46:54,400
Speaker 2: have any dominant pass rushers we suspect, but they pressured

885
00:46:54,400 --> 00:46:56,000
Speaker 2: the hell out of Killa Williams last week.

886
00:46:56,080 --> 00:46:58,200
Speaker 1: Right, Like, I'm taking that with a grain of salt,

887
00:46:58,600 --> 00:47:02,400
Speaker 1: because we talked about this before the game. The Bears

888
00:47:02,440 --> 00:47:04,040
Speaker 1: offensive line is terrible, like.

889
00:47:04,239 --> 00:47:05,799
Speaker 2: Short with the Jets. That's what I'm trying to get at,

890
00:47:05,920 --> 00:47:08,520
Speaker 2: is like, I don't get this line. I think the

891
00:47:08,560 --> 00:47:10,719
Speaker 2: books are being very telling making the line what it is.

892
00:47:10,760 --> 00:47:12,360
Speaker 2: So it's just what I want to be cautious with

893
00:47:12,400 --> 00:47:14,840
Speaker 2: and be careful because I want to be on Arizona.

894
00:47:14,840 --> 00:47:17,560
Speaker 2: But it might be another spot to back this Jets

895
00:47:17,560 --> 00:47:18,640
Speaker 2: team and I'm just missing it.

896
00:47:19,880 --> 00:47:21,839
Speaker 1: Well, I bet we'll get some sharp calls about that one.

897
00:47:21,920 --> 00:47:23,839
Speaker 1: Oh yeah, no doubt about it.

898
00:47:24,360 --> 00:47:24,840
Speaker 2: All. Right.

899
00:47:25,520 --> 00:47:33,120
Speaker 1: Here we go, Philadelphia at Dallas plus seven and a half,

900
00:47:34,200 --> 00:47:37,160
Speaker 1: the return of Cooper cut Cooper rush.

901
00:47:37,200 --> 00:47:37,719
Speaker 2: There you go.

902
00:47:38,520 --> 00:47:43,400
Speaker 1: The Eagles cannot close. They seem to be winning in

903
00:47:43,680 --> 00:47:49,160
Speaker 1: spite of Nick Sirianni. The Cowboys, no surprise, seem to

904
00:47:49,160 --> 00:47:55,920
Speaker 1: be losing because of Mike McCarthy, no running game, a

905
00:47:56,120 --> 00:48:05,080
Speaker 1: shallow defense that can't stop anyone is out. But and

906
00:48:05,120 --> 00:48:11,120
Speaker 1: this is the news. Micah Parsons likely playing in the game.

907
00:48:12,040 --> 00:48:15,400
Speaker 1: And I will tell you right now, maybe I'm putting

908
00:48:15,440 --> 00:48:20,640
Speaker 1: too much of a point on it. Dallas Cowboys exact

909
00:48:20,719 --> 00:48:23,680
Speaker 1: decision plus seven and a half.

910
00:48:24,480 --> 00:48:29,520
Speaker 2: The choice between the unthinkable and the impossible honors next

911
00:48:29,560 --> 00:48:34,239
Speaker 2: to executive decision. As long as the seven and a half,

912
00:48:34,280 --> 00:48:36,120
Speaker 2: I'll agree with it. I'll take the seven and a half.

913
00:48:36,200 --> 00:48:40,799
Speaker 2: But my hesitation here is when last time we saw

914
00:48:40,840 --> 00:48:42,919
Speaker 2: Cooper Rush, that was on a really good Dallas team,

915
00:48:42,960 --> 00:48:45,560
Speaker 2: that was with a good offensive line and a dominant defense.

916
00:48:46,560 --> 00:48:50,560
Speaker 2: This this ain't that team. This is the scraps and

917
00:48:50,800 --> 00:48:53,799
Speaker 2: ugliness left in that team's wake. This is the team

918
00:48:53,840 --> 00:48:57,200
Speaker 2: that's paying for all those past team sins of Jerry

919
00:48:57,280 --> 00:48:59,480
Speaker 2: not making moves and not drafting well. And now this

920
00:48:59,560 --> 00:49:02,480
Speaker 2: is what we're up with. And I just give so

921
00:49:02,560 --> 00:49:03,920
Speaker 2: much respect to Dak. I feel like he was the

922
00:49:03,960 --> 00:49:06,440
Speaker 2: only thing holding this team up and that's why I

923
00:49:06,440 --> 00:49:08,360
Speaker 2: wanted to back them. And now he's gone for the

924
00:49:08,360 --> 00:49:10,680
Speaker 2: next four weeks. Just a season from hell for this team.

925
00:49:10,760 --> 00:49:14,120
Speaker 2: So yeah, maybe the kid gives him a bump. I

926
00:49:14,120 --> 00:49:15,920
Speaker 2: think you're making this bet on basic on why I'm

927
00:49:15,920 --> 00:49:18,160
Speaker 2: making this bet, It's more about the Eagles less about

928
00:49:18,200 --> 00:49:20,920
Speaker 2: the Cowboys, that this Eagles team will find a way

929
00:49:20,920 --> 00:49:23,319
Speaker 2: to let this Cowboys team stay in it. So this

930
00:49:23,360 --> 00:49:24,759
Speaker 2: will be a fun game chat where I'll take the

931
00:49:24,800 --> 00:49:26,839
Speaker 2: seven and a half with you, But I'm also gonna

932
00:49:26,840 --> 00:49:28,880
Speaker 2: bet the Eagles minus thirteen and a half because I

933
00:49:28,880 --> 00:49:32,040
Speaker 2: could easily see them just blow this Cowboys team out,

934
00:49:32,160 --> 00:49:34,760
Speaker 2: Like if they actually do put it together, it's not close.

935
00:49:34,760 --> 00:49:37,719
Speaker 2: How much better of a team they are right now, Like,

936
00:49:38,600 --> 00:49:41,160
Speaker 2: and that's without Aj Brown, I'd still have confidence in it.

937
00:49:41,239 --> 00:49:44,400
Speaker 2: But matchup wise, you nailed it. Like this is the

938
00:49:44,520 --> 00:49:49,799
Speaker 2: ugly backup quarterback divisional game we after we take. So yeah,

939
00:49:49,840 --> 00:49:51,759
Speaker 2: I'm already hating us for taking this, but it's like

940
00:49:51,880 --> 00:49:53,239
Speaker 2: we have to. It's seven and a half. That's too

941
00:49:53,280 --> 00:49:55,799
Speaker 2: good of a number to pass on this With Cowboys.

942
00:49:55,560 --> 00:49:57,839
Speaker 1: Home dogs a plus seven in the division fifty five

943
00:49:58,480 --> 00:50:01,760
Speaker 1: against spread the past twenty years in the NFC East,

944
00:50:02,480 --> 00:50:06,680
Speaker 1: that number picks up to fifty eight percent. There's no,

945
00:50:07,239 --> 00:50:11,000
Speaker 1: like you said, there's no statistical reason to bet Dallas

946
00:50:11,520 --> 00:50:13,920
Speaker 1: in this game. They're they're truly.

947
00:50:13,640 --> 00:50:17,719
Speaker 2: Awful, awful, and they're just injured, Like yeah, they're they're

948
00:50:18,600 --> 00:50:20,200
Speaker 2: they're just awful On they have no doubt.

949
00:50:20,840 --> 00:50:22,880
Speaker 1: They don't have a lot of talent right now. The

950
00:50:22,920 --> 00:50:27,160
Speaker 1: coaching is not very good, but the Eagles cannot close

951
00:50:27,160 --> 00:50:30,960
Speaker 1: out games. Nick Sirianni continues to get in his own way.

952
00:50:31,560 --> 00:50:33,479
Speaker 1: We don't know about AJ Brown, and I do think

953
00:50:33,800 --> 00:50:36,160
Speaker 1: this team is just a It's a much different team.

954
00:50:36,160 --> 00:50:39,680
Speaker 1: You see them perform differently every time AJ Brown is

955
00:50:39,719 --> 00:50:42,200
Speaker 1: not playing, and I do think Michael Parsons coming back

956
00:50:42,320 --> 00:50:45,319
Speaker 1: is just going to be a huge difference for them.

957
00:50:45,360 --> 00:50:47,960
Speaker 1: So you canbine the number. You can bind Micah Parsons,

958
00:50:48,000 --> 00:50:51,080
Speaker 1: you can bind the spot the home dog of more

959
00:50:51,120 --> 00:50:55,360
Speaker 1: than a te touchdown in the division. This is a

960
00:50:55,400 --> 00:50:57,439
Speaker 1: game that people are going to want to pass over,

961
00:50:57,520 --> 00:50:59,839
Speaker 1: and they shouldn't because there's some value here.

962
00:51:03,239 --> 00:51:06,960
Speaker 2: Famous last words, Why do you laugh at me? I

963
00:51:07,120 --> 00:51:09,680
Speaker 2: just we just been making this bet all season. I

964
00:51:09,800 --> 00:51:11,920
Speaker 2: just this game literally pains me. I hate it, but

965
00:51:11,960 --> 00:51:13,680
Speaker 2: it's like, you're right, this is the right number to

966
00:51:13,680 --> 00:51:14,680
Speaker 2: bet in this matchup.

967
00:51:15,040 --> 00:51:19,080
Speaker 1: Well, look like you're right, and I'm wondering, and I

968
00:51:19,120 --> 00:51:22,760
Speaker 1: put in our notes here. We've been one back Dallas,

969
00:51:23,520 --> 00:51:25,040
Speaker 1: like are they mirage?

970
00:51:25,520 --> 00:51:28,040
Speaker 2: We by a loon? And we literally have not found

971
00:51:28,080 --> 00:51:29,160
Speaker 2: the lowest yet.

972
00:51:29,239 --> 00:51:31,279
Speaker 1: We haven't found the lower Are we seeing something and

973
00:51:31,400 --> 00:51:37,440
Speaker 1: expecting something that just isn't there? That's really Yeah, Detroit

974
00:51:37,440 --> 00:51:39,719
Speaker 1: at Houston. So look, this line was at four when

975
00:51:39,719 --> 00:51:41,640
Speaker 1: we spoke on Sunday night. It's now at three and

976
00:51:41,680 --> 00:51:45,920
Speaker 1: a half. Houston is plus three and a half. Shortly

977
00:51:46,120 --> 00:51:48,680
Speaker 1: after we spoke, it got up to four and a half,

978
00:51:48,719 --> 00:51:51,440
Speaker 1: and then wise guys took a bite back. It actually

979
00:51:51,480 --> 00:51:54,759
Speaker 1: got down to three a little bit and bounced up

980
00:51:54,880 --> 00:52:00,320
Speaker 1: this morning. So we've been looking to fade this Lion's team,

981
00:52:00,960 --> 00:52:04,200
Speaker 1: and we thought it might have been last week going

982
00:52:04,280 --> 00:52:08,000
Speaker 1: outdoors for the first time, Jared Goff a little banged up.

983
00:52:08,040 --> 00:52:12,600
Speaker 1: Do you want to coming back? Matt Lafleoor brilliant against

984
00:52:12,640 --> 00:52:17,280
Speaker 1: the spread, great scheme in all year. And I feel

985
00:52:17,280 --> 00:52:21,120
Speaker 1: like the one reason we've been betting this Lions team

986
00:52:21,640 --> 00:52:28,200
Speaker 1: is because what they're good at is something that shows

987
00:52:28,280 --> 00:52:31,360
Speaker 1: up every week, and that is just being physical on

988
00:52:31,400 --> 00:52:35,279
Speaker 1: the offensive line. Right. Their run blocking is superior to

989
00:52:35,719 --> 00:52:42,720
Speaker 1: superior to every element of the Texans rush defense. Please

990
00:52:42,760 --> 00:52:47,280
Speaker 1: tell me why we don't want to take the Lions

991
00:52:47,560 --> 00:52:48,000
Speaker 1: or do we?

992
00:52:49,719 --> 00:52:52,200
Speaker 2: Yeah, I'm glad you said, because it's just they're they're

993
00:52:52,239 --> 00:52:54,040
Speaker 2: trying to suck us in there again and take They

994
00:52:54,040 --> 00:52:55,600
Speaker 2: want us to take Houston, and I'm not going to

995
00:52:55,640 --> 00:52:57,720
Speaker 2: fall for it. I just I can't find the reason

996
00:52:57,760 --> 00:53:00,000
Speaker 2: to back Houston other than the number. Like the number,

997
00:53:00,080 --> 00:53:01,560
Speaker 2: Very's only reason I would back and was it's so

998
00:53:01,680 --> 00:53:05,480
Speaker 2: telling that is this a trap? Are we walking to

999
00:53:05,600 --> 00:53:08,440
Speaker 2: a trapper? Is Golf finally going to have a really

1000
00:53:08,520 --> 00:53:11,080
Speaker 2: bad game? Right? Because he has not had a bad

1001
00:53:11,120 --> 00:53:14,279
Speaker 2: game since Tampa And we were on that game. We

1002
00:53:14,320 --> 00:53:16,000
Speaker 2: were on the lines against the Tampa and we both

1003
00:53:16,040 --> 00:53:18,480
Speaker 2: watched it. They were what one for seven and the

1004
00:53:18,560 --> 00:53:21,640
Speaker 2: red zone on scoring touchdowns in that game like total fluke.

1005
00:53:22,120 --> 00:53:24,120
Speaker 2: The fourth downs weren't working. We saw how bad it

1006
00:53:24,120 --> 00:53:27,720
Speaker 2: could be last week, as much praise as we gave them,

1007
00:53:28,200 --> 00:53:30,680
Speaker 2: that was what a bad game? Right? And there by

1008
00:53:30,760 --> 00:53:32,680
Speaker 2: Detroit standard, that was a bad game. They scored only

1009
00:53:32,719 --> 00:53:36,239
Speaker 2: seventeen points on offense without that pick six. That looks

1010
00:53:36,239 --> 00:53:38,719
Speaker 2: like a very different game. It's not as stretched out

1011
00:53:38,760 --> 00:53:41,520
Speaker 2: as it looks. But that's the respect that I want

1012
00:53:41,520 --> 00:53:43,200
Speaker 2: to give this Detroit team. That shows how they're complete

1013
00:53:43,200 --> 00:53:46,200
Speaker 2: team that even when the offense wasn't totally on, their

1014
00:53:46,239 --> 00:53:48,160
Speaker 2: defense was and when they needed him to be so

1015
00:53:49,480 --> 00:53:53,200
Speaker 2: this feels like two teams that if this was Week one,

1016
00:53:54,160 --> 00:53:56,840
Speaker 2: all over Houston in this line. But with all Houston's

1017
00:53:56,840 --> 00:54:01,000
Speaker 2: injuries and the way Detroit's playing, what is this number?

1018
00:54:01,560 --> 00:54:05,440
Speaker 2: Bizarre bizarre number? Like to me, this was like, okay,

1019
00:54:05,480 --> 00:54:07,120
Speaker 2: this will be six and me and Chad will bet

1020
00:54:07,160 --> 00:54:10,399
Speaker 2: six on Houston. That's when there'd be value. Now it's

1021
00:54:10,440 --> 00:54:12,399
Speaker 2: down to I saw three at a couple of books. Chad,

1022
00:54:12,400 --> 00:54:15,560
Speaker 2: I don't know. Yeah, yeah, Like I hammered Detroit when

1023
00:54:15,560 --> 00:54:18,080
Speaker 2: it popped on three. I was hoping it would get

1024
00:54:18,120 --> 00:54:20,279
Speaker 2: it'd be today for the three because that was my

1025
00:54:20,360 --> 00:54:23,680
Speaker 2: Simon says, pick it's back up a three and a half,

1026
00:54:23,719 --> 00:54:26,640
Speaker 2: and it's like, what am I missing this another game? Right?

1027
00:54:26,640 --> 00:54:29,000
Speaker 2: Maybe I'm missing something around this number, and I'm I'm

1028
00:54:29,000 --> 00:54:33,160
Speaker 2: too high now on this Detroit team. But Houston's wide

1029
00:54:33,200 --> 00:54:36,040
Speaker 2: receivers are banged up and their best d end is

1030
00:54:36,080 --> 00:54:37,880
Speaker 2: banked up. He's day to day. They're not even sure

1031
00:54:37,880 --> 00:54:40,839
Speaker 2: if he's gonna play this week. So yes, I am

1032
00:54:40,840 --> 00:54:42,319
Speaker 2: taking the minus three and a half and I'll take

1033
00:54:42,360 --> 00:54:45,200
Speaker 2: the three. I think this is a total headfake by

1034
00:54:45,200 --> 00:54:47,120
Speaker 2: the professionals and they're just moving the number to get

1035
00:54:47,120 --> 00:54:49,120
Speaker 2: a better number on the Sit Troy team.

1036
00:54:49,400 --> 00:54:52,920
Speaker 1: That's interesting. All right, Well, look, I think that if

1037
00:54:52,960 --> 00:54:54,600
Speaker 1: you look at it from a matchup point of view,

1038
00:54:55,760 --> 00:54:59,040
Speaker 1: the Texans pass rush is top three in the league

1039
00:54:59,600 --> 00:55:03,440
Speaker 1: this year YE sack rate, QB pressures pressure rate, and

1040
00:55:03,480 --> 00:55:06,040
Speaker 1: the Lions offensive line is a passing block as a

1041
00:55:06,040 --> 00:55:09,399
Speaker 1: pass blocking team is truly excellent. It's more like top ten,

1042
00:55:10,320 --> 00:55:14,719
Speaker 1: not top three, So there is a slight edge if

1043
00:55:14,760 --> 00:55:19,360
Speaker 1: Will Anderson is playing. Here's the other thing that maybe

1044
00:55:19,400 --> 00:55:23,040
Speaker 1: gives me a little bit of pause. Can the Lions

1045
00:55:23,080 --> 00:55:29,080
Speaker 1: defense stop Joe Mixon? If we know that CJ. Stroud

1046
00:55:29,120 --> 00:55:36,000
Speaker 1: has struggled this year, and he struggled against pressure which

1047
00:55:36,040 --> 00:55:38,800
Speaker 1: the Lions might be able to bring, he just hasn't

1048
00:55:38,800 --> 00:55:42,279
Speaker 1: been as good as obviously missing Nico Collins and now

1049
00:55:42,320 --> 00:55:45,719
Speaker 1: Stefan Diggs just hasn't been sort of the same clutch guy.

1050
00:55:46,520 --> 00:55:48,719
Speaker 1: The Lion's defense doesn't give up a lot of rushing

1051
00:55:48,800 --> 00:55:50,720
Speaker 1: yards per game, but to me, it's similar to the Titans.

1052
00:55:50,760 --> 00:55:53,200
Speaker 1: It's like a red herring. They give up a lot

1053
00:55:53,239 --> 00:55:58,879
Speaker 1: of individual rushing plays. Their yards per attempt is really high.

1054
00:55:58,960 --> 00:56:03,080
Speaker 1: There expected points allowed is really high. Their yards over

1055
00:56:03,120 --> 00:56:08,520
Speaker 1: expectations an individual rushing plays is really high. That's kind

1056
00:56:08,560 --> 00:56:11,160
Speaker 1: of what worries me is if you look at the

1057
00:56:11,200 --> 00:56:13,759
Speaker 1: Texans knowing they can run the ball and having to

1058
00:56:13,800 --> 00:56:17,719
Speaker 1: run the ball, will the lines be effective in stopping that?

1059
00:56:18,400 --> 00:56:20,719
Speaker 2: Yeah, Houston's a really good team. They're obviously the best

1060
00:56:20,719 --> 00:56:23,279
Speaker 2: team in their division for a reason. And all their

1061
00:56:23,320 --> 00:56:26,080
Speaker 2: games this season have always been close. Even last week,

1062
00:56:26,120 --> 00:56:29,120
Speaker 2: I mean, they somehow covered all If you bet the teasers,

1063
00:56:29,160 --> 00:56:31,560
Speaker 2: they covered for you, Houston, Like they found a way

1064
00:56:31,920 --> 00:56:33,799
Speaker 2: to keep it down back to a one score game.

1065
00:56:33,840 --> 00:56:36,439
Speaker 2: They've been incredible this season at doing that. So that's

1066
00:56:36,440 --> 00:56:39,279
Speaker 2: a hesitation, right, Like this Houston team knows how to

1067
00:56:39,280 --> 00:56:41,040
Speaker 2: pull teams down in the mudd and keep it scrappy

1068
00:56:41,080 --> 00:56:43,719
Speaker 2: and keep it a one possession game. And you know

1069
00:56:43,760 --> 00:56:46,480
Speaker 2: we back them against Buffalo, they got to cover for

1070
00:56:46,560 --> 00:56:48,799
Speaker 2: us in a last second field goal. We bet them

1071
00:56:48,840 --> 00:56:52,600
Speaker 2: against green Bay, same thing, right. Green Bay won on

1072
00:56:52,600 --> 00:56:54,480
Speaker 2: a last second field goal. Would me and you sitting

1073
00:56:54,520 --> 00:56:57,919
Speaker 2: here Sunday night be shocked Detroit wins on a last

1074
00:56:57,920 --> 00:57:00,160
Speaker 2: second field goal and we don't cover this number? Wow,

1075
00:57:00,320 --> 00:57:02,440
Speaker 2: Because that's that's what the books, that's what they're doing.

1076
00:57:02,520 --> 00:57:04,080
Speaker 2: You're hanging this number. That's what they're saying is going

1077
00:57:04,160 --> 00:57:06,400
Speaker 2: to happen. They're like, Okay, come in, come in, have

1078
00:57:06,520 --> 00:57:08,239
Speaker 2: you on Detroit here They're gonna lose by a field

1079
00:57:08,280 --> 00:57:10,319
Speaker 2: goal and we're finally gonna get all this money back.

1080
00:57:10,360 --> 00:57:13,239
Speaker 2: We've been losing Detroit because I still can't believe they

1081
00:57:13,239 --> 00:57:17,400
Speaker 2: covered last week. That really was the week. But this

1082
00:57:17,400 --> 00:57:19,880
Speaker 2: this team is they're a model breaker. So yeah, that's

1083
00:57:19,880 --> 00:57:22,440
Speaker 2: that's my hesitation here is just this Houston team has

1084
00:57:22,440 --> 00:57:25,280
Speaker 2: been great at keeping games close even when they're overmatched the.

1085
00:57:25,240 --> 00:57:28,800
Speaker 1: Season, all right, So we'll continue to keep an eye

1086
00:57:28,840 --> 00:57:31,760
Speaker 1: on that one. Miami the Los Angeles Rams. You like

1087
00:57:31,800 --> 00:57:34,240
Speaker 1: the Rams a lot on Sunday night. It is not

1088
00:57:34,320 --> 00:57:36,840
Speaker 1: yet in public. It is not yet. It has not

1089
00:57:36,960 --> 00:57:39,520
Speaker 1: moved in their direction as we expected, though, it's sort

1090
00:57:39,560 --> 00:57:41,280
Speaker 1: of just sitting there. I think the wise guys are

1091
00:57:41,280 --> 00:57:44,200
Speaker 1: coming in Miami. Yeah, I bet, I bet we'll get

1092
00:57:44,240 --> 00:57:47,440
Speaker 1: a lot of sharp calls about this one. Are you reconsidering.

1093
00:57:48,880 --> 00:57:52,000
Speaker 2: I am just I won't make it as slam dunk

1094
00:57:52,000 --> 00:57:53,360
Speaker 2: play as I thought it was going to be, just

1095
00:57:53,360 --> 00:57:56,360
Speaker 2: because if you go back and watch a lot of

1096
00:57:56,400 --> 00:58:00,560
Speaker 2: this Rams teams games this year, that that whole deep

1097
00:58:00,560 --> 00:58:02,440
Speaker 2: ball then open up the middle of the field. They

1098
00:58:02,440 --> 00:58:05,880
Speaker 2: have struggled at like stopping teams going downfield on them,

1099
00:58:05,960 --> 00:58:10,520
Speaker 2: And obviously we saw last week Miami just run the

1100
00:58:10,560 --> 00:58:14,640
Speaker 2: ball down the Bill's throat, and I think that's a

1101
00:58:14,680 --> 00:58:16,440
Speaker 2: lot of people think about their offense. But I'm still

1102
00:58:16,480 --> 00:58:19,160
Speaker 2: viewing them as a Tyreek Hill waddle downfield, pushing the

1103
00:58:19,160 --> 00:58:21,880
Speaker 2: ball downfield, and could they do it against the Rams.

1104
00:58:21,880 --> 00:58:24,040
Speaker 2: I guess maybe that's what the professionals are thinking here,

1105
00:58:24,040 --> 00:58:27,520
Speaker 2: But I just think Miami's a bad team, Like they're

1106
00:58:27,520 --> 00:58:29,320
Speaker 2: just they just seem like such a bad team to me.

1107
00:58:29,400 --> 00:58:32,760
Speaker 2: That Yeah, Tua earned that cover last week. He drove

1108
00:58:32,800 --> 00:58:35,520
Speaker 2: that field and got that last second touchdown, but that's

1109
00:58:35,720 --> 00:58:37,680
Speaker 2: like a coin flip kind of game for them to

1110
00:58:37,720 --> 00:58:39,920
Speaker 2: even be covering. Like they got very lucky with a

1111
00:58:39,960 --> 00:58:42,880
Speaker 2: couple of calls there. And I think the value was

1112
00:58:42,920 --> 00:58:44,760
Speaker 2: still there on this Rams team. I said it last week.

1113
00:58:44,760 --> 00:58:46,600
Speaker 2: I didn't think the books have given them enough credit.

1114
00:58:46,640 --> 00:58:48,640
Speaker 2: That numbers should have been minus two, minus three and

1115
00:58:48,680 --> 00:58:51,080
Speaker 2: a half or minus three, I should say on the

1116
00:58:51,200 --> 00:58:54,480
Speaker 2: Rams last week got a little lucky, Like we joked about,

1117
00:58:54,520 --> 00:58:56,680
Speaker 2: that was a bad Stafford game. Are you really going

1118
00:58:56,720 --> 00:59:00,320
Speaker 2: to bet on Stafford having another bad game against other

1119
00:59:00,360 --> 00:59:04,919
Speaker 2: bad defense. Miami's a bad defense, So yeah, a game

1120
00:59:04,920 --> 00:59:07,600
Speaker 2: era I was gonna be really heavy on, I'm gonna

1121
00:59:07,600 --> 00:59:09,320
Speaker 2: be a little more patient because I have talked to

1122
00:59:09,360 --> 00:59:12,840
Speaker 2: professionals that like the other side on Miami, but I'm

1123
00:59:12,880 --> 00:59:14,640
Speaker 2: not seeing I just think this Miami team, I don't

1124
00:59:14,640 --> 00:59:17,280
Speaker 2: care how desperate they are. They're such a bad team,

1125
00:59:17,520 --> 00:59:20,280
Speaker 2: like just across the board. So yeah, if it's under

1126
00:59:20,280 --> 00:59:22,320
Speaker 2: a field goal chat, I'll still take the Rams. Here.

1127
00:59:23,040 --> 00:59:26,080
Speaker 1: We got a really interesting list that we'll get to

1128
00:59:26,120 --> 00:59:28,800
Speaker 1: break down even more deeply on Thursday. I'm sure the

1129
00:59:28,840 --> 00:59:31,760
Speaker 1: wise guys will have a good conversation about what our

1130
00:59:31,880 --> 00:59:35,920
Speaker 1: thoughts are on these games, Like Steelers plus three, as

1131
00:59:35,920 --> 00:59:41,040
Speaker 1: Simon says, Cowboys seven and a half is exec decision.

1132
00:59:42,160 --> 00:59:44,880
Speaker 1: We're still looking at Denver, We're still looking at New Orleans,

1133
00:59:44,960 --> 00:59:48,200
Speaker 1: We're still looking at San Francisco, looking at the Colts

1134
00:59:48,200 --> 00:59:51,360
Speaker 1: that would have been the Simon says, if not for

1135
00:59:51,480 --> 00:59:57,120
Speaker 1: the Steelers, maybe I talked you into it, But geez,

1136
00:59:57,240 --> 01:00:02,439
Speaker 1: Louise ty Lion's team. Man, They're tough to figure out, really,

1137
01:00:02,480 --> 01:00:05,280
Speaker 1: because also it's not even like now they're going to

1138
01:00:05,320 --> 01:00:09,120
Speaker 1: be playing indoors on the kind of field they like

1139
01:00:09,160 --> 01:00:13,720
Speaker 1: to play on, and aman Rosse Brown has caught thirty

1140
01:00:13,760 --> 01:00:16,720
Speaker 1: straight targets.

1141
01:00:16,800 --> 01:00:19,120
Speaker 2: And again coming off a bad offensive game like they

1142
01:00:19,160 --> 01:00:22,400
Speaker 2: only scored seventeen points. Like, it's just it feels like

1143
01:00:22,440 --> 01:00:24,600
Speaker 2: a nice spot for them to bounce back. So there's

1144
01:00:24,600 --> 01:00:26,760
Speaker 2: just there must be something I'm not reading right with

1145
01:00:26,800 --> 01:00:27,480
Speaker 2: this line.

1146
01:00:27,760 --> 01:00:30,880
Speaker 1: Well, I'm sure we'll find out by Thursday. As a reminder,

1147
01:00:31,000 --> 01:00:33,560
Speaker 1: the Favorites podcast is presented by Bet three sixty five

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01:00:33,600 --> 01:00:36,160
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Speaker 1: restrictions apply. Simon and I will return with our next

1160
01:01:17,520 --> 01:01:20,680
Speaker 1: episode of The Favorites on the Action Network YouTube page Thursday,

1161
01:01:20,800 --> 01:01:25,400
Speaker 1: eleven am Eastern to cover our NFL Week ten Best Bets.

1162
01:01:25,560 --> 01:01:29,600
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1163
01:01:29,600 --> 01:01:32,120
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1165
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1166
01:01:48,280 --> 01:01:52,720
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1167
01:01:52,760 --> 01:01:55,720
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