WEBVTT - Beating the Book: The 2024 NFL Draft Betting Preview 0:00:02.720 --> 0:00:05.080 Monday morning, April twenty second, twenty twenty four. It is 0:00:05.080 --> 0:00:09.920 the Beating the Book podcast. NFL Draft for twenty twenty four, 0:00:09.960 --> 0:00:13.240 it's Gill Alexander. This is always one of my favorites 0:00:14.000 --> 0:00:16.439 during the year and has been, with the exception of 0:00:16.600 --> 0:00:20.400 last year, among our most consistently profitable. In fact, we 0:00:20.480 --> 0:00:23.720 always had a profitable NFL draft until last year. Still 0:00:23.720 --> 0:00:26.159 looking for where I can cash my CJ. Stroud going 0:00:26.239 --> 0:00:29.760 to get pick number one tickets all three at plus 0:00:29.800 --> 0:00:34.280 money prices somewhere. I'm sure it's available today. On the show, 0:00:35.120 --> 0:00:37.880 something Old, something New that has done to NFL drafts 0:00:37.880 --> 0:00:41.280 with us before is Drew Dinsik. You know Whale Capper 0:00:41.360 --> 0:00:43.559 on Twitter, Whale Underscore Capper of course co host of 0:00:43.600 --> 0:00:46.720 the Deep Dive podcast with a Moletor and NBC Sports 0:00:46.760 --> 0:00:48.840 at the Edge, which he does with Jake Croucher. Drew, 0:00:48.960 --> 0:00:51.000 thank you for being here, as always. 0:00:51.800 --> 0:00:56.200 Us an honor and privilege. The Megapod Draft edition. You 0:00:56.280 --> 0:00:58.320 haven't talked football and so long. This is going to 0:00:58.320 --> 0:00:59.000 be super. 0:00:58.760 --> 0:01:01.880 Fun, super fun and new to the show, new to 0:01:01.920 --> 0:01:03.840 the pod. I just had him on a Numbers game 0:01:03.960 --> 0:01:06.240 last week. We've had him in previous years on the 0:01:06.280 --> 0:01:08.120 radio side, but never on the podcast side. You know 0:01:08.200 --> 0:01:11.840 him from Twitter as Vegas Refund. It's Luke Swayne. How 0:01:11.840 --> 0:01:13.319 you doing, Luke, Thanks for doing this. 0:01:14.040 --> 0:01:15.520 Thanks for having me. I'm excited for this. 0:01:15.880 --> 0:01:16.160 Yeah. 0:01:16.319 --> 0:01:18.319 He draft is common. 0:01:18.600 --> 0:01:20.880 And you too. Right, let's just start there. We were 0:01:20.880 --> 0:01:24.119 going through your NBA draft and your NFL draft profits 0:01:24.880 --> 0:01:27.959 over the last three years. It's all plus money except 0:01:27.959 --> 0:01:29.400 for last year's NFL draft. 0:01:29.240 --> 0:01:35.640 Right, Yes, And last year's NFL draft was cha Austin 0:01:36.560 --> 0:01:38.600 here we are. I feel like the last year's NFL 0:01:38.680 --> 0:01:41.280 draft was kind of the reset we needed because we 0:01:41.360 --> 0:01:44.160 have two acts, maybe three acts, the amount of markets 0:01:44.600 --> 0:01:47.600 this year compared to last and I'm willing to throw 0:01:47.640 --> 0:01:49.920 that one in the bag if it means that we're 0:01:50.440 --> 0:01:50.960 back to. 0:01:51.640 --> 0:01:53.880 Norm Okay, well, let me let me just start with 0:01:53.920 --> 0:01:56.000 and we were deciding where do we go with this 0:01:56.040 --> 0:01:58.840 because obviously some numbers are gone, some are still available. 0:01:59.120 --> 0:02:01.160 But let me I guess through what you said off air. 0:02:01.520 --> 0:02:04.160 I want to start with that you feel like this 0:02:04.240 --> 0:02:07.520 is a little different of a draft for you than others. 0:02:08.080 --> 0:02:12.359 Yeah, I mean like yes, the last uh you know, 0:02:12.720 --> 0:02:16.640 two drafts ago was probably uniquely awesome. That was the 0:02:16.639 --> 0:02:19.040 one where Trayvon Walker went first, and you know, a 0:02:19.080 --> 0:02:21.040 couple of weeks before the draft, he was like sitting 0:02:21.040 --> 0:02:24.160 there at thirty three to one, and you know you 0:02:24.240 --> 0:02:27.760 had some real deal like good info buzz. 0:02:27.840 --> 0:02:30.000 That was coming from teams. Uh. 0:02:30.200 --> 0:02:33.800 And then last year that was I think also the case. 0:02:33.840 --> 0:02:37.440 I mean, it definitely was pretty telegraphed that Bryce Young 0:02:37.560 --> 0:02:39.160 was going to go one. By the day of the draft, 0:02:40.200 --> 0:02:42.560 you know, there was huge disagreement about what the Texans 0:02:42.560 --> 0:02:42.920 were going. 0:02:42.840 --> 0:02:45.080 To do obviously with the you know, pick number two. 0:02:45.639 --> 0:02:48.760 And ultimately I'm still not sure I know the true 0:02:48.760 --> 0:02:51.440 full story of exactly how they landed on CJ. Stroud 0:02:51.480 --> 0:02:54.600 at number two, but you know, it gave them the 0:02:54.639 --> 0:02:57.240 opportunity to kind of box out the Titans, who were 0:02:57.240 --> 0:02:59.040 going to trade up to three for Stroud, and then 0:02:59.200 --> 0:03:01.480 they traded up to Read because they had the best offer, 0:03:01.520 --> 0:03:04.440 and they get Will Anderson as well, and the rest 0:03:04.480 --> 0:03:06.639 is history as far as kind of putting in two 0:03:06.680 --> 0:03:09.720 foundational pieces offensive defense to build your franchise. So it's 0:03:09.960 --> 0:03:12.560 you know that that was an interesting draft and just 0:03:12.600 --> 0:03:15.520 sort of the fact that things unfolded so late for 0:03:15.560 --> 0:03:17.920 them getting those second and third picks really kind of 0:03:17.960 --> 0:03:22.040 did change the entire fabric. And yeah, so that was unpredictable, 0:03:22.040 --> 0:03:24.400 It was fun, it was interesting. I lost a decent 0:03:24.480 --> 0:03:28.480 chunk on the on that particular outcome. Although Anthony Richardson 0:03:28.600 --> 0:03:30.440 going forth was a huge makeup for me because I 0:03:30.480 --> 0:03:32.440 had a lot of under I think was four and 0:03:32.440 --> 0:03:34.120 a half or five and a half for Richardson and 0:03:34.160 --> 0:03:38.160 that was a huge, a huge relief. But yeah, last 0:03:38.200 --> 0:03:40.360 year there was just it felt like a lot of 0:03:40.440 --> 0:03:43.720 noise maybe but just a lots of speculation, lots of 0:03:43.760 --> 0:03:47.600 people had like information and opinions, and this year it 0:03:47.640 --> 0:03:50.320 feels very much the opposite. I think everything we've gotten 0:03:50.320 --> 0:03:52.000 to this point in this draft cycle, as far as 0:03:52.000 --> 0:03:55.240 the information goes, has been coming from agents. It's been 0:03:55.280 --> 0:03:59.600 coming from you know, represent player, probably a rep, camps, publicists, 0:03:59.680 --> 0:04:02.680 things like that. And you know, if you put sort 0:04:02.680 --> 0:04:05.040 of the people who are in the NFL space, like 0:04:05.160 --> 0:04:07.640 the checkters of the world, like I kind of assume 0:04:07.720 --> 0:04:10.480 he gets almost all of his information from agents and 0:04:10.520 --> 0:04:12.600 pr people, uh, and so you're. 0:04:12.480 --> 0:04:13.880 Only getting half the story. 0:04:14.120 --> 0:04:17.240 Just just just what is their vibe, how, how do 0:04:17.320 --> 0:04:19.920 they think teams are evaluating them, Where do they likely 0:04:20.040 --> 0:04:23.200 think they are going to go and very very very 0:04:23.240 --> 0:04:25.520 little is coming from the NFL side of things. And 0:04:25.880 --> 0:04:28.359 if you know, this cycle comes and goes and there's 0:04:28.400 --> 0:04:30.559 like a like a you know, kind of a fourth 0:04:30.600 --> 0:04:34.360 page sports section story on like Sunday, that's like, yeah, 0:04:34.400 --> 0:04:36.520 So the NFL had like a sent a memo out 0:04:36.560 --> 0:04:38.520 to all the teams, and I was just going to 0:04:38.760 --> 0:04:42.000 double down how important it was not to leak information, 0:04:42.480 --> 0:04:45.039 Like if that kind of comes to light after the draft, 0:04:45.040 --> 0:04:47.120 I'll be oh, Okay, Now this all makes makes a 0:04:47.160 --> 0:04:50.360 lot more sense because outside of a couple of kind 0:04:50.360 --> 0:04:52.680 of the usual suspects, the Pittsburgh Stealers of the world, 0:04:52.720 --> 0:04:55.760 the cults of the world, where they're kind of telegraphing 0:04:55.760 --> 0:04:59.200 where they're going positionally, like, there is just lots of 0:05:00.160 --> 0:05:03.800 speculation based on team need only, based on you know, 0:05:03.839 --> 0:05:06.680 agents trying to wrap their players, and that stuff is 0:05:06.760 --> 0:05:09.039 notoriously poor information to bet on in my opinion. 0:05:09.120 --> 0:05:11.320 Well so that you brought it there before I could 0:05:11.320 --> 0:05:15.320 get to it, because to me, the takeaway is is 0:05:15.400 --> 0:05:18.240 this by design by the league with the you know, 0:05:18.400 --> 0:05:21.360 not only the advent of gambling becoming legalized in twenty eighteen, 0:05:21.440 --> 0:05:24.520 but now like the NFL. Finally you know, these many 0:05:24.600 --> 0:05:27.880 years later getting oh people bet on this stuff, them 0:05:27.960 --> 0:05:31.240 doubling down on this. It does. It does sort of 0:05:32.040 --> 0:05:34.480 you know, tip us off to that is a possibility 0:05:34.480 --> 0:05:37.240 that maybe it is by design where the NFL is saying, listen, 0:05:38.040 --> 0:05:40.080 let's tamp down on this, let's not come out and 0:05:40.120 --> 0:05:42.240 say stuff. And if that's the case, if we believe that, 0:05:42.920 --> 0:05:44.719 then is this going to be the case with drafts 0:05:44.760 --> 0:05:46.760 moving forward as well. I'm not sure how you feel 0:05:46.760 --> 0:05:47.160 about it. 0:05:47.160 --> 0:05:50.480 Luke, Yeah, I think last year was a great learning 0:05:50.520 --> 0:05:53.880 experience where I don't know if it's just gambling becoming 0:05:53.880 --> 0:05:56.880 more mainstream, but it does feel like the leaks in 0:05:56.920 --> 0:05:57.960 the past were kind of like. 0:05:57.920 --> 0:06:02.880 The lower level like coaches or scouts, et cetera. 0:06:02.960 --> 0:06:06.240 Where I don't think those lower level leaks in the 0:06:06.279 --> 0:06:08.919 past are getting the same information that they might have 0:06:09.000 --> 0:06:13.160 in the past, probably based off of it. And honestly, 0:06:13.560 --> 0:06:17.920 like I feel more confident this year with less like 0:06:18.040 --> 0:06:18.839 smoke out there. 0:06:18.960 --> 0:06:20.680 I like it. 0:06:20.680 --> 0:06:23.160 It feels this one feels like almost like an NBA 0:06:23.279 --> 0:06:24.960 draft where we kind of just like know who's going 0:06:25.040 --> 0:06:28.359 to go in the top ten or maybe even the 0:06:28.360 --> 0:06:32.440 top thirty two. And just figuring out that order is 0:06:32.839 --> 0:06:37.000 of course the hardest part. But there's way more, excuse me, 0:06:37.040 --> 0:06:39.280 way less like land mines in my opinion, that can 0:06:39.320 --> 0:06:42.479 like jump in and create chaos that would cause a 0:06:42.520 --> 0:06:46.440 domino effect the years past. And I don't know if 0:06:46.440 --> 0:06:48.919 that's just because we have less info or there's less 0:06:49.000 --> 0:06:53.960 intel out there, et cetera, or what, but it just 0:06:54.320 --> 0:06:56.120 feels a lot different than last year, which is probably 0:06:56.160 --> 0:06:56.560 a good thing. 0:06:56.760 --> 0:06:59.360 Okay, well let's let's actually let's start there then, so 0:06:59.400 --> 0:07:02.400 we know Caleb. We all are convinced Kaylin Williams is 0:07:02.440 --> 0:07:04.520 going number one to the Chicago Bears. We all agree 0:07:04.560 --> 0:07:08.040 on that. Okay, after that, and I think, if I'm 0:07:08.080 --> 0:07:09.720 proud of myself for one thing in this draft, because 0:07:09.720 --> 0:07:11.680 I have a bunch of bets. But there was a 0:07:11.680 --> 0:07:13.840 couple markets that I didn't expect to enter at all, 0:07:13.840 --> 0:07:16.120 and one of them was who's going to get picked second? 0:07:16.600 --> 0:07:19.760 And I am a Washington commodore's fan by birth, and 0:07:19.800 --> 0:07:22.160 I was convinced along they would take Jaden Daniels. And 0:07:22.200 --> 0:07:24.320 then we saw this weird movement last week at the 0:07:24.400 --> 0:07:27.560 end of last week where the money went away from 0:07:27.640 --> 0:07:31.000 Jayden Daniels the price crashed it. I think it got 0:07:31.000 --> 0:07:33.360 as low as minus one fifteen or minus won ten 0:07:33.440 --> 0:07:36.440 even Friday morning, I did a numbers game and I 0:07:36.440 --> 0:07:38.200 did the whole first segment on this, and I bet 0:07:38.280 --> 0:07:41.120 Jayden Daniels at minus one twenty five, not at its bottom. 0:07:41.400 --> 0:07:42.920 But I was like, well, I wasn't gonna bet this 0:07:43.000 --> 0:07:44.560 at all, but now you guys have forced me to 0:07:44.560 --> 0:07:46.200 bet this, right, so I sort of let the draft 0:07:46.200 --> 0:07:48.800 come to me. There are you as convinced as I am? 0:07:48.920 --> 0:07:50.600 And I'll get my reasons a minute, But are you 0:07:50.680 --> 0:07:52.720 guys as convinced as I am that Jayden Daniels is 0:07:52.800 --> 0:07:54.000 going number two to wash it? 0:07:55.920 --> 0:07:58.840 I don't have any skin on this one because kind 0:07:58.840 --> 0:08:03.560 of to Luke's ploy, like, well, number one, liquidity was 0:08:03.560 --> 0:08:06.560 always a little poor in this market. Uh they you know, 0:08:06.600 --> 0:08:09.920 it was the only market up offshore for weeks and 0:08:09.960 --> 0:08:13.560 weeks and weeks, but it was tilted pretty heavily. Jaydan Daniels, 0:08:13.640 --> 0:08:16.120 he was in the minus three hundred range when there 0:08:16.240 --> 0:08:18.200 was a price crash and people were kind of getting 0:08:18.200 --> 0:08:20.560 in at at rock bottom prices on him that it 0:08:20.640 --> 0:08:23.160 was only legal shops. It wasn't offshore, that I can 0:08:23.200 --> 0:08:26.840 tell you, and so yeah, it was you know, I'm 0:08:26.960 --> 0:08:30.040 I you know, whatever order two and three go. You know, 0:08:30.480 --> 0:08:32.320 as long as there are two quarterbacks, it doesn't really 0:08:32.400 --> 0:08:35.920 change my outcome whatsoever here And uh, I don't know. 0:08:35.960 --> 0:08:37.280 I think a lot of the a lot of it 0:08:37.320 --> 0:08:39.560 was just speculation, again coming from his agent and his 0:08:39.640 --> 0:08:42.080 team because they were, you know, kind of rankled that 0:08:42.559 --> 0:08:48.120 the the the commodoors, as you put it, we're flirting 0:08:48.120 --> 0:08:50.880 with other quarterbacks instead of just kind of making it 0:08:51.120 --> 0:08:53.600 clear that they had their guy and number two was 0:08:53.720 --> 0:08:56.800 very clearly Jayden Daniels and his team is uh, you know, 0:08:56.920 --> 0:08:59.520 is a little uh just a little wrinkled. 0:08:59.800 --> 0:09:03.240 But yeah, I don't, I don't. I don't really care 0:09:03.600 --> 0:09:04.120 how it goes. 0:09:04.800 --> 0:09:07.920 Yeah, standpoint, well I do now because again I entered 0:09:07.920 --> 0:09:10.760 it when I wasn't going to. But it's my thinking 0:09:10.840 --> 0:09:13.280 was simply this, and you're right, it was because the 0:09:13.960 --> 0:09:16.160 you know, the Taco holders, if you look at their logo, 0:09:16.280 --> 0:09:18.079 just look at taco holder, a taco you know, the 0:09:18.120 --> 0:09:22.240 taco shop they are. You know, yes, they brought in 0:09:22.280 --> 0:09:25.480 all four guys, not not Nicks, not Caleb, but the 0:09:25.559 --> 0:09:29.000 other four quarterbacks perspective quarterbacks in the first round Butterman 0:09:29.080 --> 0:09:31.880 all together, and then and then Jayden daniels agent liked 0:09:31.880 --> 0:09:34.880 a couple tweets that were critical of that, including one 0:09:34.880 --> 0:09:38.640 from Mike Florio. Also, Jayden Daniels apparently met with the Viking, 0:09:38.760 --> 0:09:42.040 so that crashed the number. My thinking was this, Adam Peters, 0:09:42.120 --> 0:09:43.839 this is more of a human thing than a football thing. 0:09:44.080 --> 0:09:47.839 Adam Peters, while being the GM for a first time GM, 0:09:47.880 --> 0:09:50.319 and while working for a new owner, supposedly has carte 0:09:50.320 --> 0:09:52.440 blanche there in Washington, do whatever he wants to do. 0:09:52.520 --> 0:09:54.720 But he's also a human being. And in the end, 0:09:54.800 --> 0:09:58.560 I think the human element of you are motivated more 0:09:58.679 --> 0:10:01.920 by just as much, if not more, by fear as 0:10:01.960 --> 0:10:05.040 you are by just being singularly in a vacuum for success. 0:10:05.040 --> 0:10:07.319 In other words, if you draft Drake May and it fails, 0:10:07.720 --> 0:10:09.800 the repercussions of that are going to be far greater 0:10:09.840 --> 0:10:11.880 than if you draft jayde and Daniels and it fails. 0:10:12.120 --> 0:10:16.520 And I think ultimately that's really my biggest point of it. 0:10:17.000 --> 0:10:19.080 There's football ones too, which is if you believe Jade 0:10:19.080 --> 0:10:21.320 and Daniels is going to be good quicker than Drake May, 0:10:21.720 --> 0:10:24.400 they're actually set up kind of nicely at wide out 0:10:24.440 --> 0:10:26.960 and at running back, and they have thirty six and 0:10:27.080 --> 0:10:29.360 forty they could trade up and get an offensive lineman. 0:10:29.720 --> 0:10:32.200 So there's also that, But I just think it's the 0:10:32.280 --> 0:10:35.719 human thing for me, where it's like, nah, I better 0:10:35.920 --> 0:10:38.160 kind of go with the safer in quotes of the 0:10:38.200 --> 0:10:40.959 two because who knows, relatively speaking, how safe None of 0:10:41.040 --> 0:10:43.120 us know really when any of these guys will be 0:10:43.120 --> 0:10:46.240 in the end. And then he doesn't have history with 0:10:46.280 --> 0:10:48.040 this team. I get that as well, but he also 0:10:48.120 --> 0:10:50.079 has to be well aware of the muscle memory of 0:10:50.360 --> 0:10:52.760 the franchise itself and the fan base, which is we 0:10:52.880 --> 0:10:55.360 just drafted a UNC quarterback two years ago that didn't 0:10:55.400 --> 0:10:57.480 work out so well. And the last time they had 0:10:57.480 --> 0:10:59.520 a number two pick and they drafted a quarterback, RG 0:10:59.640 --> 0:11:01.600 three was great until the injury. So I just think 0:11:01.600 --> 0:11:02.800 that you put all that in the mix. I just 0:11:02.800 --> 0:11:06.880 think it's Jade Daniels Luke what happens at two and three? 0:11:08.640 --> 0:11:10.920 I mean right now, like I'm definitely leading Jaden to 0:11:11.480 --> 0:11:16.560 Drake three, and we've like, I mean, every year, it 0:11:16.600 --> 0:11:18.520 feels like odds are just flipping on his face by 0:11:18.559 --> 0:11:22.120 the hour, where we are just stuck in a loop 0:11:22.160 --> 0:11:24.160 and Drake May has kind of felt like the CJ 0:11:24.280 --> 0:11:26.480 strout of last year, where he's been here was the 0:11:26.520 --> 0:11:29.080 consensus for so long, and then everyone was kind of 0:11:29.080 --> 0:11:30.960 like beating him down where you might even see him 0:11:31.000 --> 0:11:33.520 fall to like the eight range, which would be crazy. 0:11:33.960 --> 0:11:36.280 And then of course he kind of like the levels 0:11:36.280 --> 0:11:38.120 off and he goes back to where he's been projected 0:11:38.280 --> 0:11:41.000 this whole time. And really like the reasons behind like 0:11:41.080 --> 0:11:45.400 Jayden not going to right now are just like between 0:11:45.440 --> 0:11:48.360 like the agent on Twitter, or like the poor meetings 0:11:48.360 --> 0:11:51.760 with Washington and if we don't think anyone knows anything 0:11:52.320 --> 0:11:53.440 like those are the type. 0:11:53.200 --> 0:11:55.720 Of stories that are just yes to me, that like 0:11:55.760 --> 0:11:56.679 how can you buy that? 0:11:58.320 --> 0:12:00.199 So like I have no reason not to think it's 0:12:00.840 --> 0:12:03.920 Jade at two. But like Drew said, like as long 0:12:03.920 --> 0:12:07.600 as these two go two and three, the rest will 0:12:08.280 --> 0:12:11.559 pan out how we're projecting. There's not a lot of 0:12:11.600 --> 0:12:14.120 chaos like a low levis falling to the second round 0:12:14.160 --> 0:12:17.679 and everything is crazy after that. But I would say 0:12:17.760 --> 0:12:20.679 Jade and two right now. But it doesn't take much 0:12:20.720 --> 0:12:24.800 for me to put my opinion to Drake. There are connections, 0:12:24.800 --> 0:12:28.680 like I think like Drake May's dad played for like 0:12:28.800 --> 0:12:30.960 someone on the staff in Washington. 0:12:31.480 --> 0:12:31.840 I saw it. 0:12:31.920 --> 0:12:35.079 Yesterday like there's just narratives everywhere. No one has anything 0:12:35.120 --> 0:12:37.480 better to talk about right now, oh quarterbacks. 0:12:37.640 --> 0:12:39.920 So I asked, I asked this question of everybody who 0:12:39.960 --> 0:12:41.480 I talked draft with, and I probably asked it of 0:12:41.520 --> 0:12:43.200 you two when you're on the radio side, which is 0:12:43.600 --> 0:12:46.720 what do you think you absolutely know for sure in 0:12:46.760 --> 0:12:50.000 the first round and where do you believe the chaos 0:12:50.080 --> 0:12:52.360 might begin. Let's start with the first, which is what 0:12:52.400 --> 0:12:53.880 do you think you know for sure? Luke? 0:12:55.880 --> 0:12:57.600 So I know what I think I know for sure 0:12:57.679 --> 0:13:00.840 is four quarterbacks and three receivers go in the top ten. 0:13:01.920 --> 0:13:05.240 And then in terms of chaos, I think the real 0:13:05.400 --> 0:13:09.720 chaos can or two scenarios. One, if JJ doesn't go 0:13:09.800 --> 0:13:12.080 top five, which I still think will go top ten, 0:13:12.440 --> 0:13:16.480 he doesn't go top five, that's one chaos scenario, which 0:13:16.480 --> 0:13:18.760 would be like the Vikings not trading in. And the 0:13:18.760 --> 0:13:21.760 second one would be at the Bears at nine, where 0:13:21.760 --> 0:13:24.719 I think there's a scenario, very likely scenario where the 0:13:24.840 --> 0:13:28.640 Jets trade into eight and maybe just like trade spots 0:13:28.679 --> 0:13:31.160 with the Falcons which would only cost a third rounder 0:13:32.040 --> 0:13:35.559 and a Dunees goes before the Bears what the Bears 0:13:35.600 --> 0:13:38.880 do at nine is a chaos scenario that I don't 0:13:38.880 --> 0:13:44.720 think really anyone knows, and everyone kind of just really 0:13:45.320 --> 0:13:47.240 bows out to the question of what will happen and 0:13:47.360 --> 0:13:51.480 just says they want to trade down, which trading down 0:13:51.520 --> 0:13:53.920 is a lot harder than I think. It's way harder 0:13:53.960 --> 0:13:57.800 than just saying it and hedging whatever analysis you have. 0:13:58.480 --> 0:14:03.280 But four quarterbacks, three receivers, one offensive line. So that's 0:14:03.440 --> 0:14:05.240 I think there's eight guys locked into the top ten 0:14:05.400 --> 0:14:07.600 and the kass is nine if A Dunes doesn't fall. 0:14:08.000 --> 0:14:10.760 Okay, so not before that, because it's interesting because I 0:14:10.800 --> 0:14:13.079 had someone on air today Mike Samitch, who thought the 0:14:13.120 --> 0:14:17.439 chaos begins at three, So that's interesting. Drew, same question, 0:14:17.600 --> 0:14:18.400 what do you know for sure? 0:14:20.240 --> 0:14:21.800 I think the Pittsburgh Steels are going to take an 0:14:21.840 --> 0:14:25.520 offensive lineman. I think the Cults are going to take 0:14:25.560 --> 0:14:26.200 a wide receiver. 0:14:28.320 --> 0:14:29.160 I think no. 0:14:30.160 --> 0:14:32.680 I generally agree that that's you know, the likelihood of 0:14:32.680 --> 0:14:34.640 the top ten is pretty fixed, and then you know 0:14:34.680 --> 0:14:37.440 the number of names and players is not that broad. 0:14:38.320 --> 0:14:41.800 Brock Bauers is kind of interesting at ten if at 0:14:41.800 --> 0:14:45.560 all they have chances that they're you know, if JJ 0:14:45.680 --> 0:14:48.280 does not go in the top five, then things do 0:14:48.360 --> 0:14:49.920 get interesting, and I guess I have a theory that 0:14:49.960 --> 0:14:53.200 i'd like to float. This is entirely this is not 0:14:53.240 --> 0:14:56.000 informed by information, And maybe it's important to qualify a 0:14:56.000 --> 0:14:57.720 lot of this because you know, people will listen to 0:14:57.760 --> 0:15:00.040 this and assume that, you know, maybe we're hiding the 0:15:00.120 --> 0:15:02.600 fact that I actually know something that I honestly this 0:15:02.720 --> 0:15:06.680 is just pure speculation. When the Vikings made the move 0:15:06.720 --> 0:15:09.120 to get a second first rounder, this was now a 0:15:09.200 --> 0:15:12.880 long time ago, and in the moment you did the 0:15:12.920 --> 0:15:15.000 map and you're like, oh my gosh, that's enough capital 0:15:15.040 --> 0:15:16.840 now with those first round picks in next year's one 0:15:16.880 --> 0:15:18.920 to move up to three, like they could you know, 0:15:18.960 --> 0:15:21.280 they're they're going for it, like they're setting up, you know, 0:15:21.320 --> 0:15:23.320 the chess pieces in order to make this move to 0:15:23.320 --> 0:15:25.320 go get a quarterback, like you could see it all happening. 0:15:25.320 --> 0:15:28.760 And I agreed, like, yes, that's clearly like that's what 0:15:28.960 --> 0:15:33.280 was telegraphed. But it also had a secondary, you know, 0:15:33.400 --> 0:15:36.640 secondary effect, which is anyone else kind of in their 0:15:36.720 --> 0:15:39.600 range who might be interested in trading up for a quarterback. 0:15:39.840 --> 0:15:43.560 Now you can't beat Minnesota's offer, right, And so to 0:15:43.640 --> 0:15:47.120 a degree, it's like, well, you know, if you're if 0:15:47.160 --> 0:15:49.840 you're the Raiders, if you're you know, the Broncos, you're like, well, 0:15:50.160 --> 0:15:52.080 we're not beating that, so we might as well just 0:15:52.200 --> 0:15:54.120 you know, kind of just figure out what we're going 0:15:54.160 --> 0:15:56.240 to do here, as opposed to really kind of entertain 0:15:56.240 --> 0:15:58.720 an idea of a trade up. And so it had 0:15:58.760 --> 0:16:01.560 an effective effectively reading out anyone else who was in 0:16:01.600 --> 0:16:04.280 the market for QB four. Now they're just you know, 0:16:04.560 --> 0:16:08.000 we'll just sit here and see who's available. And so ultimately, 0:16:08.040 --> 0:16:10.040 if they don't have to make that trade and they 0:16:10.080 --> 0:16:12.720 get the guy they want at eleven, that would be 0:16:12.720 --> 0:16:15.560 a pretty like kind of masterful, you know, kind of 0:16:15.560 --> 0:16:17.080 way to manipulate the process. 0:16:17.600 --> 0:16:17.920 Uh. 0:16:17.960 --> 0:16:23.000 And ultimately, if you know, somebody like the Broncos says, okay, fine, 0:16:23.120 --> 0:16:24.760 you know, we'll give you all of our picks and 0:16:24.800 --> 0:16:27.480 all in all future rounds, blah blah blah, we we 0:16:27.640 --> 0:16:31.240 want to come up. The Vikings still do have you know, 0:16:31.320 --> 0:16:34.560 the assets this year that are more appealing to teams 0:16:34.600 --> 0:16:37.280 like the Chargers and the Cardinals and even maybe even 0:16:37.280 --> 0:16:39.680 the Patriots. And so just the fact that they have 0:16:39.760 --> 0:16:41.640 to first this year is enough, I think to trump 0:16:41.720 --> 0:16:45.160 basically any other offer that comes to fruition. Uh. And 0:16:45.200 --> 0:16:47.960 if ultimately you know the fact that the teams that 0:16:48.080 --> 0:16:51.360 are interested in quarterbacks are NFC ANFC West teams, and 0:16:51.440 --> 0:16:53.120 you know, and and they're like, Okay, well, you know, 0:16:53.160 --> 0:16:55.240 we'll just we'll just let this one go, then I 0:16:55.280 --> 0:16:57.560 think maybe they're you know, there's a non zero chance 0:16:57.600 --> 0:17:01.600 that McCarthy just falls much late and the Vikings get 0:17:01.640 --> 0:17:04.320 him after all without giving as much capital up. And 0:17:04.400 --> 0:17:06.640 I think that actually makes the most sense considering where 0:17:06.640 --> 0:17:08.000 talent evaluators have McCarthy. 0:17:08.080 --> 0:17:11.879 Anyway, the big quarterback prop that everybody leans on is 0:17:11.880 --> 0:17:15.040 the over under four and a half, Much like with 0:17:15.080 --> 0:17:17.080 my Jade and Daniels number two, which I had no 0:17:17.119 --> 0:17:19.639 intention of getting involved in until the market moved. I 0:17:19.680 --> 0:17:21.359 had no intention of getting involved in the four and 0:17:21.359 --> 0:17:25.640 a half until the over got steemed north of three dollars. 0:17:26.320 --> 0:17:28.639 And I again, I didn't get it at its peak, 0:17:28.680 --> 0:17:30.320 but I got the under at four and a half. 0:17:30.320 --> 0:17:32.160 I ended up at plus one sixty. Some people got 0:17:32.160 --> 0:17:35.560 north of two dollars for the under. Are we convinced 0:17:35.720 --> 0:17:40.400 because I'm not obviously by that bed that beyond Caleb 0:17:41.080 --> 0:17:46.440 Jaden Drake may and JJ McCarthy that either bo Nicks 0:17:46.840 --> 0:17:49.760 or Michael Pennix are absolutely going to be drafted in 0:17:49.800 --> 0:17:51.480 the first round. Are we convinced of that? 0:17:53.119 --> 0:17:55.440 I think we can cost we can toss Boenix, right, 0:17:56.520 --> 0:17:57.040 I think so? 0:17:58.200 --> 0:18:00.239 Yeah, I would agree. I think too. 0:18:00.320 --> 0:18:03.480 I would probably say Panics is a better shot and 0:18:04.240 --> 0:18:06.000 we are stuck in the loop. It's the same debate 0:18:06.040 --> 0:18:10.760 every single year. I do think the need for the 0:18:10.760 --> 0:18:15.240 Broncos in Raiders is a lot higher than in years past, 0:18:15.359 --> 0:18:18.879 or like the Broncos are rolling out with it, right 0:18:19.040 --> 0:18:23.520 Jared Stidham, Yeah, it's I think the needs compared to 0:18:23.600 --> 0:18:28.360 years past are a lot stronger, that they're a lot 0:18:28.400 --> 0:18:31.680 more desperate to maybe take a guy like Nicks or 0:18:32.119 --> 0:18:35.200 Pennix at twelve and thirteen. No shot, Like I don't 0:18:35.280 --> 0:18:40.840 think it would be crazy, maybe the twenties trading in. 0:18:41.800 --> 0:18:44.560 But at the same time, like I have a lot 0:18:44.600 --> 0:18:46.240 more interested in like the under six and a half 0:18:46.240 --> 0:18:51.280 trades than I do under quarterbacks, which still plus money, 0:18:51.320 --> 0:18:54.040 but you couldn't pay me to bet the over. 0:18:55.119 --> 0:19:00.040 Couldn't pay the over on quarterbacks. Yeah, yeah, okay, I 0:19:00.040 --> 0:19:01.160 mean maybe this is a good bit. By the way, 0:19:01.160 --> 0:19:03.320 I apologize for the music. We do the show here 0:19:03.359 --> 0:19:06.480 at the d and Bar, Canada, so we're not in 0:19:06.480 --> 0:19:08.880 the studio and so sometimes they get the audio wrong. 0:19:08.920 --> 0:19:12.240 And so a little uh, little supertramp breakfast in America 0:19:12.280 --> 0:19:15.440 for those of you who may may know such things, 0:19:15.800 --> 0:19:17.480 if I can put on my old DJ hat again. 0:19:17.600 --> 0:19:21.080