Speaker 1: Monday morning, April twenty second, twenty twenty four. It is
Speaker 1: the Beating the Book podcast. NFL Draft for twenty twenty four,
Speaker 1: it's Gill Alexander. This is always one of my favorites
Speaker 1: during the year and has been, with the exception of
Speaker 1: last year, among our most consistently profitable. In fact, we
Speaker 1: always had a profitable NFL draft until last year. Still
Speaker 1: looking for where I can cash my CJ. Stroud going
Speaker 1: to get pick number one tickets all three at plus
Speaker 1: money prices somewhere. I'm sure it's available today. On the show,
Speaker 1: something Old, something New that has done to NFL drafts
Speaker 1: with us before is Drew Dinsik. You know Whale Capper
Speaker 1: on Twitter, Whale Underscore Capper of course co host of
Speaker 1: the Deep Dive podcast with a Moletor and NBC Sports
Speaker 1: at the Edge, which he does with Jake Croucher. Drew,
Speaker 1: thank you for being here, as always.
Speaker 2: Us an honor and privilege. The Megapod Draft edition. You
Speaker 2: haven't talked football and so long. This is going to
Speaker 2: be super.
Speaker 1: Fun, super fun and new to the show, new to
Speaker 1: the pod. I just had him on a Numbers game
Speaker 1: last week. We've had him in previous years on the
Speaker 1: radio side, but never on the podcast side. You know
Speaker 1: him from Twitter as Vegas Refund. It's Luke Swayne. How
Speaker 1: you doing, Luke, Thanks for doing this.
Speaker 3: Thanks for having me. I'm excited for this.
Speaker 1: Yeah.
Speaker 3: He draft is common.
Speaker 1: And you too. Right, let's just start there. We were
Speaker 1: going through your NBA draft and your NFL draft profits
Speaker 1: over the last three years. It's all plus money except
Speaker 1: for last year's NFL draft.
Speaker 4: Right, Yes, And last year's NFL draft was cha Austin
Speaker 4: here we are. I feel like the last year's NFL
Speaker 4: draft was kind of the reset we needed because we
Speaker 4: have two acts, maybe three acts, the amount of markets
Speaker 4: this year compared to last and I'm willing to throw
Speaker 4: that one in the bag if it means that we're
Speaker 4: back to.
Speaker 1: Norm Okay, well, let me let me just start with
Speaker 1: and we were deciding where do we go with this
Speaker 1: because obviously some numbers are gone, some are still available.
Speaker 1: But let me I guess through what you said off air.
Speaker 1: I want to start with that you feel like this
Speaker 1: is a little different of a draft for you than others.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean like yes, the last uh you know,
Speaker 2: two drafts ago was probably uniquely awesome. That was the
Speaker 2: one where Trayvon Walker went first, and you know, a
Speaker 2: couple of weeks before the draft, he was like sitting
Speaker 2: there at thirty three to one, and you know you
Speaker 2: had some real deal like good info buzz.
Speaker 5: That was coming from teams. Uh.
Speaker 2: And then last year that was I think also the case.
Speaker 2: I mean, it definitely was pretty telegraphed that Bryce Young
Speaker 2: was going to go one. By the day of the draft,
Speaker 2: you know, there was huge disagreement about what the Texans
Speaker 2: were going.
Speaker 5: To do obviously with the you know, pick number two.
Speaker 2: And ultimately I'm still not sure I know the true
Speaker 2: full story of exactly how they landed on CJ. Stroud
Speaker 2: at number two, but you know, it gave them the
Speaker 2: opportunity to kind of box out the Titans, who were
Speaker 2: going to trade up to three for Stroud, and then
Speaker 2: they traded up to Read because they had the best offer,
Speaker 2: and they get Will Anderson as well, and the rest
Speaker 2: is history as far as kind of putting in two
Speaker 2: foundational pieces offensive defense to build your franchise. So it's
Speaker 2: you know that that was an interesting draft and just
Speaker 2: sort of the fact that things unfolded so late for
Speaker 2: them getting those second and third picks really kind of
Speaker 2: did change the entire fabric. And yeah, so that was unpredictable,
Speaker 2: It was fun, it was interesting. I lost a decent
Speaker 2: chunk on the on that particular outcome. Although Anthony Richardson
Speaker 2: going forth was a huge makeup for me because I
Speaker 2: had a lot of under I think was four and
Speaker 2: a half or five and a half for Richardson and
Speaker 2: that was a huge, a huge relief. But yeah, last
Speaker 2: year there was just it felt like a lot of
Speaker 2: noise maybe but just a lots of speculation, lots of
Speaker 2: people had like information and opinions, and this year it
Speaker 2: feels very much the opposite. I think everything we've gotten
Speaker 2: to this point in this draft cycle, as far as
Speaker 2: the information goes, has been coming from agents. It's been
Speaker 2: coming from you know, represent player, probably a rep, camps, publicists,
Speaker 2: things like that. And you know, if you put sort
Speaker 2: of the people who are in the NFL space, like
Speaker 2: the checkters of the world, like I kind of assume
Speaker 2: he gets almost all of his information from agents and
Speaker 2: pr people, uh, and so you're.
Speaker 5: Only getting half the story.
Speaker 2: Just just just what is their vibe, how, how do
Speaker 2: they think teams are evaluating them, Where do they likely
Speaker 2: think they are going to go and very very very
Speaker 2: little is coming from the NFL side of things. And
Speaker 2: if you know, this cycle comes and goes and there's
Speaker 2: like a like a you know, kind of a fourth
Speaker 2: page sports section story on like Sunday, that's like, yeah,
Speaker 2: So the NFL had like a sent a memo out
Speaker 2: to all the teams, and I was just going to
Speaker 2: double down how important it was not to leak information,
Speaker 2: Like if that kind of comes to light after the draft,
Speaker 2: I'll be oh, Okay, Now this all makes makes a
Speaker 2: lot more sense because outside of a couple of kind
Speaker 2: of the usual suspects, the Pittsburgh Stealers of the world,
Speaker 2: the cults of the world, where they're kind of telegraphing
Speaker 2: where they're going positionally, like, there is just lots of
Speaker 2: speculation based on team need only, based on you know,
Speaker 2: agents trying to wrap their players, and that stuff is
Speaker 2: notoriously poor information to bet on in my opinion.
Speaker 1: Well so that you brought it there before I could
Speaker 1: get to it, because to me, the takeaway is is
Speaker 1: this by design by the league with the you know,
Speaker 1: not only the advent of gambling becoming legalized in twenty eighteen,
Speaker 1: but now like the NFL. Finally you know, these many
Speaker 1: years later getting oh people bet on this stuff, them
Speaker 1: doubling down on this. It does. It does sort of
Speaker 1: you know, tip us off to that is a possibility
Speaker 1: that maybe it is by design where the NFL is saying, listen,
Speaker 1: let's tamp down on this, let's not come out and
Speaker 1: say stuff. And if that's the case, if we believe that,
Speaker 1: then is this going to be the case with drafts
Speaker 1: moving forward as well. I'm not sure how you feel
Speaker 1: about it.
Speaker 4: Luke, Yeah, I think last year was a great learning
Speaker 4: experience where I don't know if it's just gambling becoming
Speaker 4: more mainstream, but it does feel like the leaks in
Speaker 4: the past were kind of like.
Speaker 3: The lower level like coaches or scouts, et cetera.
Speaker 4: Where I don't think those lower level leaks in the
Speaker 4: past are getting the same information that they might have
Speaker 4: in the past, probably based off of it. And honestly,
Speaker 4: like I feel more confident this year with less like
Speaker 4: smoke out there.
Speaker 1: I like it.
Speaker 4: It feels this one feels like almost like an NBA
Speaker 4: draft where we kind of just like know who's going
Speaker 4: to go in the top ten or maybe even the
Speaker 4: top thirty two. And just figuring out that order is
Speaker 4: of course the hardest part. But there's way more, excuse me,
Speaker 4: way less like land mines in my opinion, that can
Speaker 4: like jump in and create chaos that would cause a
Speaker 4: domino effect the years past. And I don't know if
Speaker 4: that's just because we have less info or there's less
Speaker 4: intel out there, et cetera, or what, but it just
Speaker 4: feels a lot different than last year, which is probably
Speaker 4: a good thing.
Speaker 1: Okay, well let's let's actually let's start there then, so
Speaker 1: we know Caleb. We all are convinced Kaylin Williams is
Speaker 1: going number one to the Chicago Bears. We all agree
Speaker 1: on that. Okay, after that, and I think, if I'm
Speaker 1: proud of myself for one thing in this draft, because
Speaker 1: I have a bunch of bets. But there was a
Speaker 1: couple markets that I didn't expect to enter at all,
Speaker 1: and one of them was who's going to get picked second?
Speaker 1: And I am a Washington commodore's fan by birth, and
Speaker 1: I was convinced along they would take Jaden Daniels. And
Speaker 1: then we saw this weird movement last week at the
Speaker 1: end of last week where the money went away from
Speaker 1: Jayden Daniels the price crashed it. I think it got
Speaker 1: as low as minus one fifteen or minus won ten
Speaker 1: even Friday morning, I did a numbers game and I
Speaker 1: did the whole first segment on this, and I bet
Speaker 1: Jayden Daniels at minus one twenty five, not at its bottom.
Speaker 1: But I was like, well, I wasn't gonna bet this
Speaker 1: at all, but now you guys have forced me to
Speaker 1: bet this, right, so I sort of let the draft
Speaker 1: come to me. There are you as convinced as I am?
Speaker 1: And I'll get my reasons a minute, But are you
Speaker 1: guys as convinced as I am that Jayden Daniels is
Speaker 1: going number two to wash it?
Speaker 2: I don't have any skin on this one because kind
Speaker 2: of to Luke's ploy, like, well, number one, liquidity was
Speaker 2: always a little poor in this market. Uh they you know,
Speaker 2: it was the only market up offshore for weeks and
Speaker 2: weeks and weeks, but it was tilted pretty heavily. Jaydan Daniels,
Speaker 2: he was in the minus three hundred range when there
Speaker 2: was a price crash and people were kind of getting
Speaker 2: in at at rock bottom prices on him that it
Speaker 2: was only legal shops. It wasn't offshore, that I can
Speaker 2: tell you, and so yeah, it was you know, I'm
Speaker 2: I you know, whatever order two and three go. You know,
Speaker 2: as long as there are two quarterbacks, it doesn't really
Speaker 2: change my outcome whatsoever here And uh, I don't know.
Speaker 2: I think a lot of the a lot of it
Speaker 2: was just speculation, again coming from his agent and his
Speaker 2: team because they were, you know, kind of rankled that
Speaker 2: the the the commodoors, as you put it, we're flirting
Speaker 2: with other quarterbacks instead of just kind of making it
Speaker 2: clear that they had their guy and number two was
Speaker 2: very clearly Jayden Daniels and his team is uh, you know,
Speaker 2: is a little uh just a little wrinkled.
Speaker 5: But yeah, I don't, I don't. I don't really care
Speaker 5: how it goes.
Speaker 1: Yeah, standpoint, well I do now because again I entered
Speaker 1: it when I wasn't going to. But it's my thinking
Speaker 1: was simply this, and you're right, it was because the
Speaker 1: you know, the Taco holders, if you look at their logo,
Speaker 1: just look at taco holder, a taco you know, the
Speaker 1: taco shop they are. You know, yes, they brought in
Speaker 1: all four guys, not not Nicks, not Caleb, but the
Speaker 1: other four quarterbacks perspective quarterbacks in the first round Butterman
Speaker 1: all together, and then and then Jayden daniels agent liked
Speaker 1: a couple tweets that were critical of that, including one
Speaker 1: from Mike Florio. Also, Jayden Daniels apparently met with the Viking,
Speaker 1: so that crashed the number. My thinking was this, Adam Peters,
Speaker 1: this is more of a human thing than a football thing.
Speaker 1: Adam Peters, while being the GM for a first time GM,
Speaker 1: and while working for a new owner, supposedly has carte
Speaker 1: blanche there in Washington, do whatever he wants to do.
Speaker 1: But he's also a human being. And in the end,
Speaker 1: I think the human element of you are motivated more
Speaker 1: by just as much, if not more, by fear as
Speaker 1: you are by just being singularly in a vacuum for success.
Speaker 1: In other words, if you draft Drake May and it fails,
Speaker 1: the repercussions of that are going to be far greater
Speaker 1: than if you draft jayde and Daniels and it fails.
Speaker 1: And I think ultimately that's really my biggest point of it.
Speaker 1: There's football ones too, which is if you believe Jade
Speaker 1: and Daniels is going to be good quicker than Drake May,
Speaker 1: they're actually set up kind of nicely at wide out
Speaker 1: and at running back, and they have thirty six and
Speaker 1: forty they could trade up and get an offensive lineman.
Speaker 1: So there's also that, But I just think it's the
Speaker 1: human thing for me, where it's like, nah, I better
Speaker 1: kind of go with the safer in quotes of the
Speaker 1: two because who knows, relatively speaking, how safe None of
Speaker 1: us know really when any of these guys will be
Speaker 1: in the end. And then he doesn't have history with
Speaker 1: this team. I get that as well, but he also
Speaker 1: has to be well aware of the muscle memory of
Speaker 1: the franchise itself and the fan base, which is we
Speaker 1: just drafted a UNC quarterback two years ago that didn't
Speaker 1: work out so well. And the last time they had
Speaker 1: a number two pick and they drafted a quarterback, RG
Speaker 1: three was great until the injury. So I just think
Speaker 1: that you put all that in the mix. I just
Speaker 1: think it's Jade Daniels Luke what happens at two and three?
Speaker 4: I mean right now, like I'm definitely leading Jaden to
Speaker 4: Drake three, and we've like, I mean, every year, it
Speaker 4: feels like odds are just flipping on his face by
Speaker 4: the hour, where we are just stuck in a loop
Speaker 4: and Drake May has kind of felt like the CJ
Speaker 4: strout of last year, where he's been here was the
Speaker 4: consensus for so long, and then everyone was kind of
Speaker 4: like beating him down where you might even see him
Speaker 4: fall to like the eight range, which would be crazy.
Speaker 4: And then of course he kind of like the levels
Speaker 4: off and he goes back to where he's been projected
Speaker 4: this whole time. And really like the reasons behind like
Speaker 4: Jayden not going to right now are just like between
Speaker 4: like the agent on Twitter, or like the poor meetings
Speaker 4: with Washington and if we don't think anyone knows anything
Speaker 4: like those are the type.
Speaker 3: Of stories that are just yes to me, that like
Speaker 3: how can you buy that?
Speaker 4: So like I have no reason not to think it's
Speaker 4: Jade at two. But like Drew said, like as long
Speaker 4: as these two go two and three, the rest will
Speaker 4: pan out how we're projecting. There's not a lot of
Speaker 4: chaos like a low levis falling to the second round
Speaker 4: and everything is crazy after that. But I would say
Speaker 4: Jade and two right now. But it doesn't take much
Speaker 4: for me to put my opinion to Drake. There are connections,
Speaker 4: like I think like Drake May's dad played for like
Speaker 4: someone on the staff in Washington.
Speaker 3: I saw it.
Speaker 4: Yesterday like there's just narratives everywhere. No one has anything
Speaker 4: better to talk about right now, oh quarterbacks.
Speaker 1: So I asked, I asked this question of everybody who
Speaker 1: I talked draft with, and I probably asked it of
Speaker 1: you two when you're on the radio side, which is
Speaker 1: what do you think you absolutely know for sure in
Speaker 1: the first round and where do you believe the chaos
Speaker 1: might begin. Let's start with the first, which is what
Speaker 1: do you think you know for sure? Luke?
Speaker 4: So I know what I think I know for sure
Speaker 4: is four quarterbacks and three receivers go in the top ten.
Speaker 4: And then in terms of chaos, I think the real
Speaker 4: chaos can or two scenarios. One, if JJ doesn't go
Speaker 4: top five, which I still think will go top ten,
Speaker 4: he doesn't go top five, that's one chaos scenario, which
Speaker 4: would be like the Vikings not trading in. And the
Speaker 4: second one would be at the Bears at nine, where
Speaker 4: I think there's a scenario, very likely scenario where the
Speaker 4: Jets trade into eight and maybe just like trade spots
Speaker 4: with the Falcons which would only cost a third rounder
Speaker 4: and a Dunees goes before the Bears what the Bears
Speaker 4: do at nine is a chaos scenario that I don't
Speaker 4: think really anyone knows, and everyone kind of just really
Speaker 4: bows out to the question of what will happen and
Speaker 4: just says they want to trade down, which trading down
Speaker 4: is a lot harder than I think. It's way harder
Speaker 4: than just saying it and hedging whatever analysis you have.
Speaker 4: But four quarterbacks, three receivers, one offensive line. So that's
Speaker 4: I think there's eight guys locked into the top ten
Speaker 4: and the kass is nine if A Dunes doesn't fall.
Speaker 1: Okay, so not before that, because it's interesting because I
Speaker 1: had someone on air today Mike Samitch, who thought the
Speaker 1: chaos begins at three, So that's interesting. Drew, same question,
Speaker 1: what do you know for sure?
Speaker 2: I think the Pittsburgh Steels are going to take an
Speaker 2: offensive lineman. I think the Cults are going to take
Speaker 2: a wide receiver.
Speaker 5: I think no.
Speaker 2: I generally agree that that's you know, the likelihood of
Speaker 2: the top ten is pretty fixed, and then you know
Speaker 2: the number of names and players is not that broad.
Speaker 2: Brock Bauers is kind of interesting at ten if at
Speaker 2: all they have chances that they're you know, if JJ
Speaker 2: does not go in the top five, then things do
Speaker 2: get interesting, and I guess I have a theory that
Speaker 2: i'd like to float. This is entirely this is not
Speaker 2: informed by information, And maybe it's important to qualify a
Speaker 2: lot of this because you know, people will listen to
Speaker 2: this and assume that, you know, maybe we're hiding the
Speaker 2: fact that I actually know something that I honestly this
Speaker 2: is just pure speculation. When the Vikings made the move
Speaker 2: to get a second first rounder, this was now a
Speaker 2: long time ago, and in the moment you did the
Speaker 2: map and you're like, oh my gosh, that's enough capital
Speaker 2: now with those first round picks in next year's one
Speaker 2: to move up to three, like they could you know,
Speaker 2: they're they're going for it, like they're setting up, you know,
Speaker 2: the chess pieces in order to make this move to
Speaker 2: go get a quarterback, like you could see it all happening.
Speaker 2: And I agreed, like, yes, that's clearly like that's what
Speaker 2: was telegraphed. But it also had a secondary, you know,
Speaker 2: secondary effect, which is anyone else kind of in their
Speaker 2: range who might be interested in trading up for a quarterback.
Speaker 2: Now you can't beat Minnesota's offer, right, And so to
Speaker 2: a degree, it's like, well, you know, if you're if
Speaker 2: you're the Raiders, if you're you know, the Broncos, you're like, well,
Speaker 2: we're not beating that, so we might as well just
Speaker 2: you know, kind of just figure out what we're going
Speaker 2: to do here, as opposed to really kind of entertain
Speaker 2: an idea of a trade up. And so it had
Speaker 2: an effective effectively reading out anyone else who was in
Speaker 2: the market for QB four. Now they're just you know,
Speaker 2: we'll just sit here and see who's available. And so ultimately,
Speaker 2: if they don't have to make that trade and they
Speaker 2: get the guy they want at eleven, that would be
Speaker 2: a pretty like kind of masterful, you know, kind of
Speaker 2: way to manipulate the process.
Speaker 5: Uh.
Speaker 2: And ultimately, if you know, somebody like the Broncos says, okay, fine,
Speaker 2: you know, we'll give you all of our picks and
Speaker 2: all in all future rounds, blah blah blah, we we
Speaker 2: want to come up. The Vikings still do have you know,
Speaker 2: the assets this year that are more appealing to teams
Speaker 2: like the Chargers and the Cardinals and even maybe even
Speaker 2: the Patriots. And so just the fact that they have
Speaker 2: to first this year is enough, I think to trump
Speaker 2: basically any other offer that comes to fruition. Uh. And
Speaker 2: if ultimately you know the fact that the teams that
Speaker 2: are interested in quarterbacks are NFC ANFC West teams, and
Speaker 2: you know, and and they're like, Okay, well, you know,
Speaker 2: we'll just we'll just let this one go, then I
Speaker 2: think maybe they're you know, there's a non zero chance
Speaker 2: that McCarthy just falls much late and the Vikings get
Speaker 2: him after all without giving as much capital up. And
Speaker 2: I think that actually makes the most sense considering where
Speaker 2: talent evaluators have McCarthy.
Speaker 1: Anyway, the big quarterback prop that everybody leans on is
Speaker 1: the over under four and a half, Much like with
Speaker 1: my Jade and Daniels number two, which I had no
Speaker 1: intention of getting involved in until the market moved. I
Speaker 1: had no intention of getting involved in the four and
Speaker 1: a half until the over got steemed north of three dollars.
Speaker 1: And I again, I didn't get it at its peak,
Speaker 1: but I got the under at four and a half.
Speaker 1: I ended up at plus one sixty. Some people got
Speaker 1: north of two dollars for the under. Are we convinced
Speaker 1: because I'm not obviously by that bed that beyond Caleb
Speaker 1: Jaden Drake may and JJ McCarthy that either bo Nicks
Speaker 1: or Michael Pennix are absolutely going to be drafted in
Speaker 1: the first round. Are we convinced of that?
Speaker 5: I think we can cost we can toss Boenix, right,
Speaker 5: I think so?
Speaker 3: Yeah, I would agree. I think too.
Speaker 4: I would probably say Panics is a better shot and
Speaker 4: we are stuck in the loop. It's the same debate
Speaker 4: every single year. I do think the need for the
Speaker 4: Broncos in Raiders is a lot higher than in years past,
Speaker 4: or like the Broncos are rolling out with it, right
Speaker 4: Jared Stidham, Yeah, it's I think the needs compared to
Speaker 4: years past are a lot stronger, that they're a lot
Speaker 4: more desperate to maybe take a guy like Nicks or
Speaker 4: Pennix at twelve and thirteen. No shot, Like I don't
Speaker 4: think it would be crazy, maybe the twenties trading in.
Speaker 4: But at the same time, like I have a lot
Speaker 4: more interested in like the under six and a half
Speaker 4: trades than I do under quarterbacks, which still plus money,
Speaker 4: but you couldn't pay me to bet the over.
Speaker 1: Couldn't pay the over on quarterbacks. Yeah, yeah, okay, I
Speaker 1: mean maybe this is a good bit. By the way,
Speaker 1: I apologize for the music. We do the show here
Speaker 1: at the d and Bar, Canada, so we're not in
Speaker 1: the studio and so sometimes they get the audio wrong.
Speaker 1: And so a little uh, little supertramp breakfast in America
Speaker 1: for those of you who may may know such things,
Speaker 1: if I can put on my old DJ hat again.
Speaker 1: So we're working on that. Uh, this is a good
Speaker 1: point before we get some other points. This is a
Speaker 1: good point to say what we have bet already. Luke,
Speaker 1: Let's start with you, because they'll just give a sense
Speaker 1: of what you're thinking on some other things.
Speaker 4: I don't think we have enough time in this show
Speaker 4: to go over what I've bet.
Speaker 1: A How about the biggest ones, the ones that you
Speaker 1: like the best, that you wanted to throw out.
Speaker 4: So so under six and a half trades is one
Speaker 4: that I kind of just bet it every year. And
Speaker 4: it does feel like you bet the under quarterbacks because
Speaker 4: you're stuck in a loop and it's the hype of
Speaker 4: the quarterback we see every single year. And it's the
Speaker 4: same thing with the trades, and we see everyone speaking
Speaker 4: to trades. Every team wants to trade down. You have
Speaker 4: teams that want to trade up every single year. Doesn't
Speaker 4: live up to the hype and this open at five
Speaker 4: and a half, it's up to six and a half.
Speaker 3: It's even money on the under. I think that is.
Speaker 4: Wow, a great bet because I mean there's nothing to
Speaker 4: go off of, like we don't know.
Speaker 3: Anything.
Speaker 4: But at the same time, like every team has x
Speaker 4: amount of players craded on their boards as first rounders,
Speaker 4: and things that I'm reading are those first round grades.
Speaker 4: Is in the range of like twenty to twenty two
Speaker 4: is like the estimate that teams probably have, which to
Speaker 4: me feels low, which isn't enough players to create six
Speaker 4: and a half trades.
Speaker 3: Teams are just gonna straight up Yeah, six and a
Speaker 3: half trades is high to me.
Speaker 4: Yeah, so maybe it's just one Usually it's like four
Speaker 4: and a half, five and a half. Maybe the JJ
Speaker 4: McCarthy like assumed trade is just adding one spot and
Speaker 4: it's really five and a half in the end. But
Speaker 4: I would only bet this under the overs only plus
Speaker 4: one thirty in the unders even money was draft odds
Speaker 4: like aren't real.
Speaker 3: But yeah, I like this under.
Speaker 4: I think the Broncos positional defensive line is great. The
Speaker 4: long shot that I like a lot that I bet
Speaker 4: is lot too, a lot to lot too. Man, I
Speaker 4: put your every name, but I'm pretty sold on him
Speaker 4: going to the Falcons. And at eight his ODDSCT like
Speaker 4: plus one fifty and they were like seven to one
Speaker 4: at one point.
Speaker 1: He's the short shot now.
Speaker 3: Right. I think it's it's coming down. I'm very sold
Speaker 3: on it.
Speaker 4: I don't think his medicals are an issue, but I
Speaker 4: think betting into scenarios that the Falcons trade back. Even
Speaker 4: though I just like bet the under on trades, I
Speaker 4: think the Falcons and Jets is a no brainer trade
Speaker 4: for me, where the Jets jump the Bears to get
Speaker 4: a Duneesa and the Falcons flip with them and take
Speaker 4: a lot too at ten, which we're talking like twenty
Speaker 4: to one now, so everyone's been betting assuming they're going
Speaker 4: to take a lot too at eight. But in the
Speaker 4: scenario which would only cost her third round pick, the
Speaker 4: Falcons taking lots to at ten at twenty to one,
Speaker 4: I think is a great bet with scenario that. Honestly,
Speaker 4: I think my issue is like it makes almost too
Speaker 4: much sense that the Jets are just gonna jet and
Speaker 4: they won't do it, but like you would have to
Speaker 4: jump the Bears to go to Dunday, the Jets want
Speaker 4: to do Inday, pretty sure, they're like number one on
Speaker 4: their board costs basically nothing, and Douglas would be trading
Speaker 4: a pick that he might not even be able to
Speaker 4: use himself if he doesn't because he'll be out if
Speaker 4: they don't win.
Speaker 1: So, just to clarify that bet is a lot to
Speaker 1: to go tenth is twenty to one. Correct, has nothing
Speaker 1: to do with the falcons. But that's your scenario where
Speaker 1: he ends up at ten.
Speaker 4: Yeah, so instead of getting at like even odds, now
Speaker 4: go eight. Yeah, it's a likely scenario.
Speaker 1: Got you. Yeah, I just wanted to clarify. So people
Speaker 1: are going to be looking for that and they'll be like,
Speaker 1: what are you talking about. No, it's just so a
Speaker 1: lot to to go tenth would be twenty to one.
Speaker 1: All right, Drew, what do you What do you like
Speaker 1: best that you bet?
Speaker 3: Well?
Speaker 2: I think Luke pointed out actually one of the better
Speaker 2: numbers on the board, which is the trades under six
Speaker 2: and a half.
Speaker 5: I'm shocked that that's where that number is currently hanging.
Speaker 2: And this is, of course, I'm assuming that the fine
Speaker 2: print is this is draft day trade. So the fact
Speaker 2: that the Vikings have already kind of made a trade
Speaker 2: to procure that first round or.
Speaker 5: It is not not included in the count.
Speaker 2: But the yeah, that that I don't think that's gonna
Speaker 2: sniff sniff's son, So that that under is awesome in
Speaker 2: terms of other kind of positional bets that I have
Speaker 2: in pocket, and I guess actually, let's talk about sort
Speaker 2: of macro. This draft is very very offensive rich there.
Speaker 2: But I do think that kind of there has been
Speaker 2: a general cooling on the wide receiver pool available this
Speaker 2: year to where the you know, the likelihood of you know,
Speaker 2: seven wide receivers going around one I think is low,
Speaker 2: and I think the offensive lineman though you know, nine
Speaker 2: or ten is sort of a base line expectation, is
Speaker 2: totally fair. Quarterbacks at least four and then you know,
Speaker 2: did one tight end and zero running backs. I think,
Speaker 2: you know, we're kind of in the mix where when
Speaker 2: they originally opened, positional totals and offense and defense were
Speaker 2: hanging in like the you know, eighteen and a half
Speaker 2: nineteen and a half range.
Speaker 5: Like that was a no brainer over for the offensive players.
Speaker 2: And then ultimately once some of the larger pools opened
Speaker 2: up and they were up to twenty one and a half,
Speaker 2: like it was pretty obviously a good opportunity to come
Speaker 2: back on the under for offensive players, I think the
Speaker 2: sweet spot and what would make me the happiest on
Speaker 2: draft day would be twenty one offensive players eleven defensive players,
Speaker 2: because that.
Speaker 5: Would threat a beautiful needle.
Speaker 2: And I think to do that you really have to
Speaker 2: kind of zero in on the wide receiver pool because
Speaker 2: you know, again like Brian Thomas, who was the fourth
Speaker 2: expected off the board, is kind of slipping because of
Speaker 2: some health issues. Mitchell is slipping because of you know,
Speaker 2: all kinds of you know reports about just his you
Speaker 2: know care, and then you know you're you're making a
Speaker 2: little bit of a reach if you're taking Worthy in
Speaker 2: round one just based on speed and not production.
Speaker 1: Uh.
Speaker 2: And I think all the rest of the guys are
Speaker 2: border lying around one anyway, like Mconkee and legged. So yeah,
Speaker 2: I think if there's one bridge jumper that I'm going
Speaker 2: to have a lot of in my pocket on Thursday,
Speaker 2: it's going to be under six and a half wide
Speaker 2: receivers in round one, And I honestly think you could
Speaker 2: see four or five, which would be you know, just
Speaker 2: a beautiful, no sweat, it would be I would be
Speaker 2: so happy.
Speaker 3: But we we'll seal with you. Yeah, I would be
Speaker 3: on that sold deal as well.
Speaker 2: Yeah if seven, Yeah, if the Chiefs take wide receiver
Speaker 2: number seven and pick thirty two, it's going to be
Speaker 2: a sad set stick of affairs.
Speaker 5: And you know, like you could like the question is
Speaker 5: that Okay? Well, if the market thinks seven.
Speaker 2: Is possible, but you're saying it's more like five or
Speaker 2: six at most, Well, where do the other picks go? Well,
Speaker 2: offensive lineman, surely, so many teams in the back half
Speaker 2: of the draft have needs it offensive and there are
Speaker 2: blue chip Round one talent all across the board. The
Speaker 2: guys that I've bet unders on kind of in that
Speaker 2: range include Graham Barton, who I think has a very
Speaker 2: clear home in Pittsburgh at twenty and I think the.
Speaker 5: Fella out of Arizona, Jordan Morgan.
Speaker 2: Have heard a lot of positive things from teams who
Speaker 2: are kind of in the late half of the first
Speaker 2: round in terms of his fit and his versatility and
Speaker 2: seemingly a huge positive character guy. So I have under
Speaker 2: on Morgan at thirty two and a half. I think
Speaker 2: he goes in Day one. I have under on Graham
Speaker 2: Barton at twenty three and a half twenty one and
Speaker 2: a half and twenty and a half because I think
Speaker 2: his floor is twenty and I think ultimately, you know,
Speaker 2: the other part of the vacuum and the long shot
Speaker 2: that I'm taking swings on and again, like I like
Speaker 2: Luke's approach better if you can find if you have
Speaker 2: pools where you can find twenty to one on random
Speaker 2: stuff like a lot too landing ten, you know that
Speaker 2: type of you know, swinging for the fence is my
Speaker 2: more my style betting the draft, but I don't have
Speaker 2: access to those pools. So in terms of long shots,
Speaker 2: all I bet is over five and a half cornerbacks
Speaker 2: because I think ultimately, like there are a lot of
Speaker 2: team needs with cornerback in the light half of the
Speaker 2: first round, and I think, you know, there's five likely
Speaker 2: and a sixth being either Rake Straw or let me
Speaker 2: see who else has kind of had some buzz really
Speaker 2: but most mostly yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, Saints Trail and
Speaker 2: Rakestraw kind of being on the on the cusp of
Speaker 2: round one one of one or both of those guys
Speaker 2: landing on the Chiefs with pick thirty two would be
Speaker 2: just sweet, sweet music. So yeah, let's get let's surprise
Speaker 2: on the number of cornerbacks. Let's get a little bit
Speaker 2: of uh, you know, push up some of these guys
Speaker 2: who think, we think are you know, kind of blue
Speaker 2: chip offensive lineman like Graham Barton and Jordan Morgan.
Speaker 3: Uh.
Speaker 5: And then let's have a.
Speaker 2: Wide receiver, you know, kind of end in the five
Speaker 2: to six range as post to some teams reaching. And
Speaker 2: I think everybody's gonna have a prett happy draft, at
Speaker 2: least in my household.
Speaker 4: If you if you ask me like one guy that
Speaker 4: I think no one is talking about, you haven't seen
Speaker 4: any mock that could go in the first it would
Speaker 4: be Saint Drel which is the nickel corner out of Michigan,
Speaker 4: and I would be extremely happy about it. But Barton
Speaker 4: is my favorite over under and it's not even close
Speaker 4: betting the under that I'm on as well at Barton. Yeah,
Speaker 4: I'm on the under twenty three and a half. It
Speaker 4: should have opened at twenty one and a half or
Speaker 4: at this point probably twenty and a half.
Speaker 3: I think twenty and a half is what it probably
Speaker 3: should be now. Yeah, but there's twenty and twenty one,
Speaker 3: twenty one and a half out there now.
Speaker 1: I'm looking for it right now. A lot too. By
Speaker 1: the way, the position number is under sixteen and a
Speaker 1: half minus one thirty five, just looking at Barton twenty
Speaker 1: one and a half under twenty one and a half
Speaker 1: minus one forty five here at circa anyway where I
Speaker 1: do this for him. By the way, the under six
Speaker 1: and a half wide receivers is minus two seventy but
Speaker 1: still sounding like you still view that as value. When
Speaker 1: this show first started, I was going to ask the
Speaker 1: way you got the way at least you were talking
Speaker 1: to you, I was gonna be like, well, so if
Speaker 1: I gave you like a small profit right now, would
Speaker 1: you take it? But as this has gone on, it
Speaker 1: sounds like you wouldn't take it, like you expect to
Speaker 1: still make big time here, oh.
Speaker 2: Right where we're sitting right now. If I have a
Speaker 2: losing draft day, I'll be very expressed.
Speaker 1: Okay. The other thing I said this this morning. I
Speaker 1: don't know that this point means anything in the scheme
Speaker 1: of things, because we're all just trying to win bets.
Speaker 1: But it just does occur to me that this point
Speaker 1: never gets made about the NFL Draft. We are trying
Speaker 1: to hit where every draft room's brains are Thursday Night,
Speaker 1: April twenty six. So if we were betting into this,
Speaker 1: if this was a week before or a week after,
Speaker 1: five days before, five days after, two days before, two
Speaker 1: days after, the thinking for some of these teams might
Speaker 1: be completely different, right, So we're just trying to hit
Speaker 1: a moment in time perfectly, Drew. Drew has made an expression.
Speaker 5: You don't like that, no, no, yeah, exactness of all
Speaker 5: this as wild?
Speaker 1: Yeah, yeah, Like it's just that I don't think that
Speaker 1: gets that point gets made enough, Luke.
Speaker 4: Yeah, And I mean they're like betting the draft, like
Speaker 4: there is it's like there's an answer to the test.
Speaker 4: It's not like you're betting on a like volatile performance
Speaker 4: or like someone can get hurt.
Speaker 3: Like the answer to the test is out there, and if.
Speaker 4: You figure that answer out, unless I guess things change,
Speaker 4: I guess trades, But there's an answer and that if
Speaker 4: you know that answer, it will be right and really good.
Speaker 4: I'll just have to take the card to the podium
Speaker 4: and you're good. Josh Allen can't get hurt on the
Speaker 4: first play of the game, and your BET's done. Figuring
Speaker 4: out that answer, which is getting harder, but there is
Speaker 4: an outcome that is written in pen somewhere, and I
Speaker 4: think that is the biggest difference, Like minus infinity is
Speaker 4: a good bet in the draft compared to minus infinity
Speaker 4: isn't a good bet anywhere else Here.
Speaker 1: Here Here the bets that I've made, in addition to
Speaker 1: the ones I already mentioned because I want to want
Speaker 1: to make fun of myself, because I have ones that
Speaker 1: I expect him to win. And then I have a
Speaker 1: couple that I took fires on. I mentioned Jade and
Speaker 1: Daniels second pick, minus one twenty five total quarterbacks under
Speaker 1: four and a half, Round one, I got a plus
Speaker 1: one sixty. Those came to me. I wasn't gonna involve myself,
Speaker 1: but the way that the money moved, I bet into those.
Speaker 1: I also have a position of the Jaguars first selection
Speaker 1: as a cornerback. I got that an even money. Every
Speaker 1: mock had a corner. Obviously they have more needs than
Speaker 1: that too, but I went with corner at even money
Speaker 1: Dallas Turner, which looked to be like it was going
Speaker 1: to be a lock at under nine and a half.
Speaker 1: Now I'm not so sure about that. I got a
Speaker 1: plus money plus one fifteen when it looked like Atlanta
Speaker 1: might take Dallas Turner if they stayed to eight. Here
Speaker 1: are the ones where I really got nuts on. And
Speaker 1: this comes from one is intel, one is not. The
Speaker 1: one that is not is Jim Harbaugh has repeatedly said
Speaker 1: he wants to start the foundation of his franchise in
Speaker 1: LA the Chargers with an offensive lineman. And Joe Alt
Speaker 1: was plus four fifty. You can get him in a
Speaker 1: better number like plus four seventy five to go number five.
Speaker 1: I took Harball at his word, and I know you.
Speaker 1: Alt is slated to be drafted seventh by most for
Speaker 1: the Titans at seven, if all remains where they are,
Speaker 1: if every team remains where they are. But I took
Speaker 1: a flyer at plus four fifty on Alt at number five.
Speaker 1: I don't know if they stare him in the face
Speaker 1: and don't draft him, and then the other one is
Speaker 1: by Intel. Our buddy Chris Philika mentioned that he has
Speaker 1: heard that the Giants actually really like Roma Dunze more
Speaker 1: than they do Malik Neighbors. So I took a Dunze
Speaker 1: at plus three twenty five. At six, he's about plus
Speaker 1: two to fifty. So I'm kind of all over the place.
Speaker 1: It gets back to, though I'm curious where we think, like,
Speaker 1: let me go with the scenario we brought up this morning.
Speaker 1: Mike Sanmichi brought it up this morning. So Caleb goes first,
Speaker 1: Jade and Daniels go second, and then the New England
Speaker 1: Patriots decide, you know what, we don't really like Drake May.
Speaker 1: And here's Marvin Harrison, the best player of any position,
Speaker 1: staring us in the face. CJ Strout, as old teammate,
Speaker 1: by the ways, on record, is saying, if Marvin Harrison
Speaker 1: Junior is staring you in the face, don't be dumb.
Speaker 1: Was the quote draft him. What if the Patriots did that?
Speaker 1: What kind of chaos does this set the draft into? Well?
Speaker 2: I mean that number one, they would no longer have
Speaker 2: the thirty second best wide receiver room in football.
Speaker 1: That's for sure, Yes, But I guess what I'm getting
Speaker 1: at is, would this then make everybody who wanted Drake
Speaker 1: May go crazy trying to trade up? Would it then
Speaker 1: actually mean that JJ McCarthy would go much much later?
Speaker 1: Like right, the repercussions. All it takes is for one
Speaker 1: of these things to happen, right, Yeah.
Speaker 4: Yeah, j JJ bawing would be the biggest domino, because
Speaker 4: like I'm convinced that Drake May is the Vikings guy
Speaker 4: that they want the most. If Drake May all of
Speaker 4: a sudden falls to four, I think the Vikings are
Speaker 4: going to throw everything to get there, to get him,
Speaker 4: and then it's really difficult to and then you can
Speaker 4: basically just put it JJ McCarthy maybe twelve, twelve or thirteen,
Speaker 4: maybe eight. If either of those teams, I think would
Speaker 4: probably trade with the Falcons. Falcons are going to get
Speaker 4: the same guy at eight that they'll probably they can
Speaker 4: get from ten to thirteen. But yeah, like I think
Speaker 4: the Vikings would throw everything to get Drake May, and
Speaker 4: then JJ would probably fall fall because yeah, there's no
Speaker 4: reason to trade into four or five anymore.
Speaker 2: Yeah, it sounds to me it sounds like the Cardinals
Speaker 2: are they're no longer in the trade business. At four,
Speaker 2: they just take they just take neighbors. If Harrison goes through,
Speaker 2: for the Vikings trade up to five with the Chargers,
Speaker 2: because the.
Speaker 5: Chargers seem the most inclined to trade down out of
Speaker 5: those guys.
Speaker 2: And then yep, Drake mayoes five to the Vikings, and
Speaker 2: then six is roma Dunes of the Giants, presumably because
Speaker 2: I don't think the Giants really are in the quarterback market.
Speaker 2: I think they were very much in the wide receiver market,
Speaker 2: and so they take the third blue chip wide receiver,
Speaker 2: so that hurts the Bears. Bears are now no longer
Speaker 2: looking at wide receiver. They probably take an hedge, and
Speaker 2: the Jets are no longer looking at wide receiver. They
Speaker 2: probably just take Bowers And yeah, then Chargers take the tackle,
Speaker 2: Titans take a tackle, or the Chargers will take a
Speaker 2: tackle down at eleven, Titans take a tackle at seven.
Speaker 5: Yeah.
Speaker 4: Yeah, But about that scenario is yeah, that scenario being
Speaker 4: so crazy, like the same ten guys are probably going
Speaker 4: to go in the top ten even if that wild scenel.
Speaker 1: Just shuffles it show.
Speaker 4: Which is the biggest difference this year compared to last
Speaker 4: is pretty much, which is why it's kind of like
Speaker 4: an NBA draft, Like assuming the same time.
Speaker 3: Guys are going to go yeah, yeah, but then I
Speaker 3: think that drags a dunejay. Uh if like Neighbors goes
Speaker 3: or then Dunday's going away earlier.
Speaker 1: Yeah, let me go to some of these notes that
Speaker 1: you said before the show, Luke, which I think is
Speaker 1: great because one of the things about this coming out
Speaker 1: the Monday before the draft is a lot of numbers
Speaker 1: are going to be gone, but there's a lot of
Speaker 1: things that are still very betable. You put this note
Speaker 1: in top three to three five exactas.
Speaker 4: Yeah, so those are those are the fun bets, where
Speaker 4: like scenarios we just went over are going to be
Speaker 4: crazy and with such an uncertainty right now on two
Speaker 4: and three because like truly, like we don't know, some
Speaker 4: of these are still fun and really, like I if
Speaker 4: you ask me right now, it's probably I would say
Speaker 4: the chalk, the Kalo jayde and Drake Marvin JJ, but
Speaker 4: you still need a trade for that to happen.
Speaker 3: And like relying on trades or that's is like my
Speaker 3: least favorite thing to do.
Speaker 4: They too, which creates the opportunity of the exactness of
Speaker 4: like if that trade doesn't happen or like Marvin goes
Speaker 4: through or whatever, Like you're looking at some absolute bangers,
Speaker 4: I gotta I gotta pull them out.
Speaker 2: Yeah here I'm looking at it right now, Williams. Like
Speaker 2: if if Harrison goes through, your top four, is Williams
Speaker 2: likely Daniels Harrison neighbors and that's.
Speaker 3: One hundred to one exactly.
Speaker 5: That's a big number.
Speaker 4: It's like telling someone I'll never be against one hundred
Speaker 4: to one bat Like, you don't want to be that
Speaker 4: guy that says no, and then it hits And.
Speaker 1: Where are you saying that? True? Where's that? Where's that
Speaker 1: exact available.
Speaker 5: Draft kings under the top four exact order? You have
Speaker 5: to scroll well down?
Speaker 1: Yes, but yeah, but you're right, Luke, like the flyers
Speaker 1: like that, Why not right at one hundred to one?
Speaker 1: My god?
Speaker 4: And these are what saved me last year, like with
Speaker 4: everything of the chaos, like these, these, these long shots
Speaker 4: are what how I came out in the grain. And
Speaker 4: I have a lot less long shots this year right
Speaker 4: now than I do last year. And that's kind of
Speaker 4: just where we are with this draft right now. But
Speaker 4: I would never be opposed to the exacts. And I
Speaker 4: think FANDU has top all the way up to top five,
Speaker 4: And as you get closer, I bet we'll start getting
Speaker 4: even more. I see, I remember it was like top seven.
Speaker 4: I would think it was the longest. Last year three
Speaker 4: years ago. You could bet every single pick in the
Speaker 4: first round, which was fantastic, Yeah.
Speaker 1: Till Twitter, till Twitter gave the answer before it added Yeah.
Speaker 1: So wait, so just to clarify that, I'll fee was exact,
Speaker 1: is what is the chaos scenario long shot that you like,
Speaker 1: Williams going third? To pollute it in those long shot exactas,
Speaker 1: like what's the what's the thing where it changes? What
Speaker 1: makes it such a long shot? Isn't Williams going third?
Speaker 1: You mean Harrison, I mean harr Harrison saying Williams. Pardon me, Harris, Yeah,
Speaker 1: probably right.
Speaker 2: I mean like that's because yeah, like I mean, if
Speaker 2: we're if we step outside of what's going to happen
Speaker 2: and talk to just about the Patriots right now, Like,
Speaker 2: do we think that if they draft Drake May that
Speaker 2: he's going to succeed, you know, in the first couple
Speaker 2: of years with.
Speaker 5: The talent on this roster, probably not failed.
Speaker 2: So the Patriots are probably going to have a high
Speaker 2: pick again next year. I don't know that there really
Speaker 2: ought to be a premium for them to take a quarterback.
Speaker 2: So if they you know, if they take a generational
Speaker 2: wide receiver, so be it. I don't think that's necessarily
Speaker 2: bad team building. And uh, you know, I think, yeah,
Speaker 2: if that happens to me, pretty pretty likely, Like it's
Speaker 2: a core it's a high heightened degree of correlation that
Speaker 2: if Harrison goes three, Neighbors goes.
Speaker 4: For Yeah, I think I think top five is where
Speaker 4: I'm looking for the chaos top four, it's it's tough
Speaker 4: for like fandolished top five and like you spoke to
Speaker 4: earlier about Joe Walt going five right now, Caleb Jayde
Speaker 4: and Drake JJ joealt is forty to one.
Speaker 1: Oh, I would think it would be longer than that.
Speaker 1: That's all it was. Wow, Caleb, Caleb Drake Wait, Caleb,
Speaker 1: say again, Caleb Jayden.
Speaker 4: Caleb Jayden, Drake JJ. That's hopmore and then Joe all forty.
Speaker 1: Okay, so not not as chaotic as I thought. Okay, wow,
Speaker 1: But that if you do think there's correlation between Harrison
Speaker 1: going three and Molik Neighbors going forward, that's probably the
Speaker 1: core of the bet you should make there.
Speaker 3: Yeah.
Speaker 2: Yeah, And I should kind of explain why I think
Speaker 2: that's so highly correlated. Is I think it's pretty clear
Speaker 2: that the Cardinals are you know, they're and they're they're
Speaker 2: they're they're flirting with trading down and then but you know,
Speaker 2: they don't want to go so far down that they
Speaker 2: miss out on neighbors. And I think the real the
Speaker 2: reason is from a fit and from a talent evaluation,
Speaker 2: it sounds like they don't have a huge separation between
Speaker 2: Neighbors and Harrison and I.
Speaker 5: But if one of those guys is gone and the
Speaker 5: other guy they're taken.
Speaker 1: Right, boy, when when Nevada gets legalized sports betting, guys
Speaker 1: and we can bet these things here? Man, is this
Speaker 1: going to be awesome?
Speaker 5: It's gonna be great.
Speaker 1: Oh wait, what we do we do? Oh? Where you say, Luke?
Speaker 3: Because uh, what is it? Just these types of bets?
Speaker 4: Because for what I thought you guys had over unders
Speaker 4: out there, we have over runners.
Speaker 1: We have over unders on players.
Speaker 5: Yes, circa yeah, good old fashion.
Speaker 1: Yeah.
Speaker 5: Discovery this year, which was cool they did.
Speaker 1: They put it out a week earlier than they won
Speaker 1: than they did last year because they were only available.
Speaker 1: Circle only jumped in last two or three days last year,
Speaker 1: but they gave us a full week and two or
Speaker 1: three days this time. Stations deserves the shout. They were
Speaker 1: the first to do it here. They are every year
Speaker 1: always Stations. All right, there's a couple other things here
Speaker 1: that are that are pretty interesting to me. We already
Speaker 1: talked about the Jets and the falcons, You're a lot
Speaker 1: to swap. How about this one peak group think consensus
Speaker 1: in top ten? What do you mean by that?
Speaker 4: Yeah, so we've we've kind of been talking to it
Speaker 4: this time, but like this draft right now, it is
Speaker 4: I can't remember a time that there.
Speaker 3: Has been such a consensus on the top ten right now.
Speaker 1: But was that you who tweeted out tweeted out the percentages?
Speaker 4: Yeah, yeah, yeah, where every single picks one through ten
Speaker 4: and out of like the forty mock drafts I track,
Speaker 4: each guy has like sixty five percent or higher, which
Speaker 4: is way.
Speaker 3: Above anything I've ever seen.
Speaker 4: Yeah, and at one Domino can just throw this entire
Speaker 4: thing off technically, like scenarios that Albert Breras brought up
Speaker 4: as like three offensive linemen and going in the first
Speaker 4: round that would be crazy, which to me, that would
Speaker 4: happen if Chargers stay at five and take alt maybe
Speaker 4: await them. But I don't know if it's more of
Speaker 4: a consensus compared to just to mock drafts or such
Speaker 4: a copycat thing where it's just everyone just copycatting every
Speaker 4: like ourselves. In Jeremiah Mayah I spoke to him about.
Speaker 4: I mean, he is the best he's the closest thing
Speaker 4: we have to what teams are thinking. And he's been
Speaker 4: He's had Drake mayat two. It's entire process, and I'm
Speaker 4: very interested to see if he switches in his final
Speaker 4: knock draft because if he does, that is a huge
Speaker 4: signal to me that it is Jayden because he's been
Speaker 4: on Drake May the entire process. But you can start
Speaker 4: to see like Lats who you're seeing a lot of
Speaker 4: to the falcons at eight from guys that you trust,
Speaker 4: a lot that are starting to switch. But it is
Speaker 4: the highest consensus I've ever seen in any draft in
Speaker 4: a top ten.
Speaker 1: Yeah, it's pretty amazing.
Speaker 5: You're right, particularly the top eight, right or eight or nine?
Speaker 3: Yeah?
Speaker 5: Yeah.
Speaker 1: And the day when you were on a numbers game
Speaker 1: on Vson, you were talking about how Daniel Jeremiah had
Speaker 1: his presser last week, and I guess it's Daniel's way
Speaker 1: of not having to do all of these individual interviews,
Speaker 1: so now he holds court and people can jump on
Speaker 1: in and hear what he has to say. And you
Speaker 1: were saying one of the nuggets was again a prop
Speaker 1: that we don't you know, it's like science fiction us
Speaker 1: here in Nevada. Second tight end drafted. You might as
Speaker 1: well have said, who's the seventh punter drafted? Right like
Speaker 1: it just you know, and you were saying it was
Speaker 1: McLaughlin at Arizona might go number two. That was a
Speaker 1: big nugget. It got bet down tremendously. That was just
Speaker 1: one of the nuggets from this thing. Do you still
Speaker 1: buy into that happening or I mean certainly not at
Speaker 1: the price now you wouldn't bet it, I would imagine.
Speaker 3: Yeah.
Speaker 4: I mean at the time it was one hundred to
Speaker 4: one and now it's down to ten to one, which
Speaker 4: was a great nugget. And like I said, he's the
Speaker 4: close thing that we have to teams and maybe one
Speaker 4: team has him too. And the tight end class is
Speaker 4: so weak that you could probably make an argument for
Speaker 4: any of them outside of burs who go second, which
Speaker 4: would be like the third or fourth round. But I
Speaker 4: would not bet MacLauchlan at ten to one at these odds.
Speaker 4: It's just a great example of fake odds. Yeah, it's
Speaker 4: a draft.
Speaker 1: Do you think do you think Bowers goes ten to
Speaker 1: the Jets.
Speaker 3: I'm of the opinion that he doesn't.
Speaker 4: To me, like, I think it's either that I'm trading
Speaker 4: over the Bears to go to Dunsa or taking Fatano
Speaker 4: at ten, which is the offensive lineman out of Washington.
Speaker 4: But there's some guys one specific beat reporter with the
Speaker 4: Cardinals names like Mike Jarecki, who's probably he's extremely accurate
Speaker 4: on his tips.
Speaker 3: He is Walter Football dot Com.
Speaker 4: Keith's track of tips on a year to year basis
Speaker 4: like as a win loss record for every single guy. Wow,
Speaker 4: like Matt Miller's three and twenty one over the last
Speaker 4: three years.
Speaker 1: That's that good. I'm told that's not.
Speaker 3: It's not great.
Speaker 4: But Jareki's fourteen and oh so he hasn't been wrong
Speaker 4: with any tips. And Wow, last night he tweeted out
Speaker 4: Bowers to the Jets. He had a picture of Bowers
Speaker 4: and Gronkowski together and is that guy in the left
Speaker 4: is a future Jet, which to me means a lot.
Speaker 4: But I'm still sticking to my guns. Every time I
Speaker 4: got the Bowers over eleven and a half, someone comes
Speaker 4: back back invest thee under love to know who that
Speaker 4: guy is.
Speaker 3: He's hit me off withsite you, but it just doesn't
Speaker 3: make sense to me.
Speaker 4: If you're going to get an offensive weapon, just trade
Speaker 4: up for the round pick to get a Z or
Speaker 4: take an offensive lineman.
Speaker 3: But they are the Jets, and the Jets will jet, So.
Speaker 1: The Jets will jet. Yeah, the Jets will jet, only
Speaker 1: only trumped by the Raiders. Will raider when it comes
Speaker 1: to draft. All right, let me. I don't usually do this.
Speaker 1: You take a guest notes and run through it, but
Speaker 1: yours were so great, Luke, that I wanted to actually
Speaker 1: get through all of them. Exact picks odds based on
Speaker 1: trade scenarios. What do you mean by that?
Speaker 3: Yeah, so that this is really the lat to swap
Speaker 3: with the Jets.
Speaker 4: So if like the Jets trade out, they could take
Speaker 4: a Dunes eight, which the dunesy to go eight is
Speaker 4: six to one, and then we're assuming Falcons take Latsu
Speaker 4: at ten, which is twenty to one. And then I
Speaker 4: think scenario is like the other hotspot is the Eagles
Speaker 4: trading into sixteen break corner with the Seahawks. I think
Speaker 4: if the Eagles stay at twenty two, they take an
Speaker 4: offensive lineman, they trade up, which the reporters from the
Speaker 4: Eagles I trust Kapinski, who's out of the Philadelphia Inquire,
Speaker 4: is pretty strong on them taking a corner and them
Speaker 4: being the most likely team to trade up, which historically
Speaker 4: they have been, which would be Eagles to take Terry
Speaker 4: on Arnold, which we don't have an exact pick, but
Speaker 4: corner great odds for the Eagles, and then really like
Speaker 4: the Falcons trading back. Is that hot spot whether in
Speaker 4: the lat two is like the guy I'm sold on
Speaker 4: and you're not going to get a lot better than
Speaker 4: twenty to one for him, which he's almost even on
Speaker 4: to go to the Falcons at eight right now.
Speaker 1: And then this other one. DK dropped a bunch of matchups.
Speaker 1: I saw that and it wasn't like too many matchups, right,
Speaker 1: it was like one page worth.
Speaker 3: Yeah, they're pretty I'll give him credit. They were pretty
Speaker 3: good matchups in terms of not any no brainers.
Speaker 4: But I don't think Xavier Worthy should be plus one
Speaker 4: fifty to a d Mitchell. I'm on the Ady Mitchell over.
Speaker 4: I'm actually on the Xavier Worthy over as well, but
Speaker 4: Ady Mitchell's a guy I feel like is slipping and
Speaker 4: worthy of plus one fifty to him.
Speaker 3: Were really there?
Speaker 4: EDP, which is estimated draft position between the mocks, is
Speaker 4: so tight right now, and I think there's a lot
Speaker 4: more scenarios where Worthy can go a lot earlier than
Speaker 4: Mitchell than there are Mitchell for Worthy, where Mitchell's like,
Speaker 4: if he doesn't go twenty eight, he might go thirty two.
Speaker 4: But you can see Worthy going twenty one. I mean,
Speaker 4: he's one of those speed guys that has a lot
Speaker 4: more volatility that I think one fifty is a great
Speaker 4: bet I would like. I think Terry and Irold over
Speaker 4: Verse is a good bet. Verse doesn't go nine, I
Speaker 4: can see Verse falling into the twenties. Tarrann'nold is like,
Speaker 4: his range of outcomes is from pretty much like twelve
Speaker 4: to seventeen, and if Verse doesn't go nine, he's in
Speaker 4: the twenties. I mean tarryn donald is. They're basically to
Speaker 4: pick them between those two. Lat two is even money
Speaker 4: over Murphy. Murphy's like that big name that we're hearing.
Speaker 1: That.
Speaker 4: I don't know if I want to go against Murphy,
Speaker 4: But I like Fatano as well for the same reasons
Speaker 4: I like Arnold, but Fatano basically pick them against Binion Mitchell.
Speaker 4: Fatina's range is basically ten to sixteen. Mitchell, if he
Speaker 4: doesn't go fifteen, he might get to the twenties. I
Speaker 4: guess the Broncos were a hot spot, but they really
Speaker 4: aren't now. But I like Fatana the same reasons, So
Speaker 4: like Arnold, like the range of outcomes is so much tighter,
Speaker 4: and I have a lot more confidence that you're really
Speaker 4: betting on like one or two spots to go ahead
Speaker 4: of these guys are the versus Mitchell, all right.
Speaker 1: So what I'm hearing is the ones that the ones
Speaker 1: that you guys like the most under six and a
Speaker 1: half wide receivers under On Murphy's draft position, Byron Murphy's
Speaker 1: draft position.
Speaker 3: Barton Barton, pardon me.
Speaker 1: On barn Ram Barton's draft position? What else did you
Speaker 1: what else did you have strong conviction on it?
Speaker 4: I could just read off the over unders I have,
Speaker 4: please right now? Yeah, I have Quinnion Mitchell over thirteen
Speaker 4: and a half, Jared Verus over fourteen and a half.
Speaker 4: All these numbers are going to be there, but this
Speaker 4: is what I have. So Quintin and Mitchell over thirteen
Speaker 4: and a half, Jared Versus over fourteen and a half,
Speaker 4: J C. Latham under fourteen and a half, Byron Murphy
Speaker 4: under eighteen and a half, Graham Barton over twenty three
Speaker 4: and a half, Chop Robinson under twenty six and a half,
Speaker 4: eighty Mitchell over twenty seven and a half, Dave You're
Speaker 4: Worthy over twenty nine and a half, Tyler Geiden under
Speaker 4: twenty nine and a half, and Lad McConkie under thirty
Speaker 4: five and a half, which I definitely will have more.
Speaker 4: That's four overs and six unders. They usually try to
Speaker 4: keep the overs and unders even it's a little bit
Speaker 4: more difficult this year. But the first thing I learned
Speaker 4: when betting the drops of years ago is I had
Speaker 4: too many unders, and a lot of them were in
Speaker 4: the top ten and one domino goes off.
Speaker 3: Oh yeah.
Speaker 4: It basically comes down to you, like you need to
Speaker 4: predict the top ten or top fifteen perfect in order
Speaker 4: to get all those bets right, which is impossible. So
Speaker 4: you only have equal overs two unders, where I guess
Speaker 4: they can kind of be correlated where an over hits
Speaker 4: the under is coming back because I means if this
Speaker 4: guy's not going, the guy you, but the under should
Speaker 4: be going. But true, some of those numbers are still
Speaker 4: out there.
Speaker 1: So no thank you for those, drew. What did that
Speaker 1: leave out in terms of what you like best?
Speaker 2: Well, the British jumper, which is under six and a
Speaker 2: half wide receivers that is minus two fifty. I mean realistically,
Speaker 2: like I'm trying. I'm not trying to be glib. I
Speaker 2: think fair should be like minus twenty five hundred.
Speaker 5: Business. I really am struggling.
Speaker 2: I'm really struggling to see how said, because like you know,
Speaker 2: certain guys are sliding Brian Thomas junior, Ady Mitchell, Like
Speaker 2: these guys are this is your fourth and fifth wide receiver.
Speaker 2: Like if those guys fall down into the end of
Speaker 2: the first round where number one, they weren't expected to
Speaker 2: be there, so teams aren't even necessarily evaluating them. They're
Speaker 2: looking at offensive linemen, they're looking at cornerbacks. Yeah, I
Speaker 2: mean yeah, you only have one clear obvious team with
Speaker 2: the Bills, as likely to take a wide receiver down there.
Speaker 3: Yeah.
Speaker 5: I just I'm not seeing anyway that the math works
Speaker 5: out that we're going to get to seven.
Speaker 2: So if there are seven wide receivers drafted, well, number
Speaker 2: one that'll be part of the court. So far from
Speaker 2: me in twenty twenty four, it's been a it's it's
Speaker 2: been a rough couple of months here. But that said,
Speaker 2: I'm not I'm not seeing this as fair and the
Speaker 2: minus two fifty range at all?
Speaker 1: What is the sense By the way, Drew is very
Speaker 1: very honest about tough stretch that he's been in. And
Speaker 1: that's what we love. That's what we love about you
Speaker 1: that you transparent about this stuff. What is the what
Speaker 1: is the scenario that happens or what's the first thing
Speaker 1: that would would happen in this draft that would indicate
Speaker 1: to you. Oh, dear god, I'm fucked. Like, what's what's
Speaker 1: the first thing that happens? Okay, what what was that?
Speaker 3: Like twelve and thirteen or Bonis and Michael Panics?
Speaker 1: Oh yeah, I'm done. Yeah, yeah, yeah.
Speaker 3: It's like, okay, if.
Speaker 5: In the first half of the draft, I'm in deep,
Speaker 5: deep trouble.
Speaker 3: Yeah, and then I think, yeah, quarterback, go twelve and thirteen.
Speaker 1: But that's but that's you know, the quarterback thing is
Speaker 1: so fascinating. It gets all the headlines and I know
Speaker 1: we get we're deeper into it, but like, you know,
Speaker 1: I get it. On the one hand, Right, you know,
Speaker 1: NFL team is anything unless you have a quarterback. Right,
Speaker 1: I'm a Washington fan. I can tell you that for years,
Speaker 1: you're you're nothing ultimately without a quarterback. So I get
Speaker 1: why teams go quarterback crazy come first round of an
Speaker 1: NFL draft, you want to believe, right, you desperately want
Speaker 1: to believe that this guy. There's Bo Nicks, there's Michael Pennix,
Speaker 1: there's JJ McCarthy. I me, mister quarterback, you know molder
Speaker 1: can make this guy into a franchise quarterback. On the
Speaker 1: other hand, just to get a brief history of quarterback
Speaker 1: drafts in the NFL, twenty twenty was the was the
Speaker 1: draft that I think everybody is chasing that high burrow
Speaker 1: to a Herbert Love and hurts my god, right like
Speaker 1: they're all impact quarterbacks in this league today. But then
Speaker 1: after that, twenty twenty one, Trevor Lawrence was the number
Speaker 1: one pick in the draft. Okay, Jerry's still out. Some
Speaker 1: people think he's going to be great, some people think
Speaker 1: not so much. Since then, here are your quarterbacks twenty
Speaker 1: twenty one, Zach Wilson, Trey Lance, Justin Fields, Mac Jones.
Speaker 1: Twenty twenty two, Remember was the year there was only
Speaker 1: the one guy in the first round, Canny Pickett went
Speaker 1: to Pittsburgh. The other name of quarterbacks drafted in that
Speaker 1: draft Ritter Willis, corral, Zappi Howell, A lot of con Skyler, Thompson, Purty,
Speaker 1: Purty saves the draft with the last pick twenty twenty three.
Speaker 1: I mean, guys, this is just last year, right, last
Speaker 1: year Young Bryce Young goes first. We did get Stroud
Speaker 1: and then we got Richardson. Jerry's going to be decided
Speaker 1: on Richardson still then since then after that, Levis Hooker, Hayner, Bennett, O'Connell,
Speaker 1: Tune dtr Clifford, Hall, Tanner, McKee, Duggan and actually two
Speaker 1: guys who were undrafted, right, Bajen and Devido got more
Speaker 1: run than any of those names I just mentioned. So
Speaker 1: I guess, on the one hand, like I get why
Speaker 1: these teams go crazy because you're nothing without a quarterback.
Speaker 1: On the other hand, you look at the batting average right,
Speaker 1: and you're just like, God, is it bad?
Speaker 3: I mean, yeah, next year, the next year, next year's
Speaker 3: quarterbacks is like all time dad boy.
Speaker 1: Uh yeah.
Speaker 4: And I mean I'm not thinking like I think shouldhar
Speaker 4: Sanders is right now like probably the top guy, but
Speaker 4: I'm of the belief in Mac Jones's kind of like
Speaker 4: the poster for me on this. But this is your
Speaker 4: franchise quarterback.
Speaker 3: You're either to have a top four or five pick,
Speaker 3: we trade up and get him.
Speaker 4: You don't hope he falls to like the Patriots did
Speaker 4: with mac Jones, because you truly believe he's the guy.
Speaker 4: If you're just hoping he falls to you when you
Speaker 4: get past the tenth pick.
Speaker 3: And if the Vikings don't trade up two four and.
Speaker 4: Five, that is also another chaos scenario that could create
Speaker 4: some o gods because everything, every mark that you see
Speaker 4: right now, everything you're reading, is based off of four
Speaker 4: or five being in the Vikings, And if it's not them,
Speaker 4: we could have all been around the entire time.
Speaker 1: On everything, which wouldn't like shock you right, Like you
Speaker 1: wouldn't be that shocked if we were all wrong about everything,
Speaker 1: which is a scary part of this.
Speaker 5: Obviously this year, this year, I would be shocked.
Speaker 3: Right.
Speaker 2: Last year, we shouldn't move. We kind there was so
Speaker 2: much smoke and noise and everything was nothing was connected.
Speaker 2: It was all kind of contradictory, so you were it
Speaker 2: was a very uncomfortable feeling heading to the draft. This
Speaker 2: year feels pretty different. But now the quarter the quarterback draft,
Speaker 2: I haven't have a working theory. I haven't completely flushed
Speaker 2: this out. So I'll get you guys take on this.
Speaker 2: But like I get it from a team building standpoint, right,
Speaker 2: you have enough evidence now that you need a quarterback
Speaker 2: on a rookie deal to you know, and you need
Speaker 2: to be competitive in that player if that, if you
Speaker 2: hit on your pick, you need to be competitive in
Speaker 2: that player's windows years three, four, and five. And I
Speaker 2: think that's what a lot of franchises are trying, you know,
Speaker 2: trying to accomplish. And I think you know, as with
Speaker 2: like you know, with the Texans this year, once you
Speaker 2: hit that, you know, once you hit your on your guy,
Speaker 2: then yeah, chips on the table, like, go get stuff
Speaker 2: on dicks, go go get I forget who they traded,
Speaker 2: who they got in free agency? Who is the pass
Speaker 2: rusher from the Vikings, but Daniel Hunter. Yeah, so you know,
Speaker 2: pushing chips on the table, like here we go, this
Speaker 2: is our shot. And because realistically, you either you want
Speaker 2: to be chasing a championship or you want to be
Speaker 2: at the top of the draft. Taking your next shot
Speaker 2: out of quarterback purgatory is like the ultimate you know,
Speaker 2: least desirable place to be, which is why it's weird
Speaker 2: seeing teams like the Falcons just capitulate and pay you know,
Speaker 2: a guy like Kirk Cousins to just put them squarely
Speaker 2: in purgatory, but so be it. And you know, I
Speaker 2: think as far as like the batting average for quarterbacks,
Speaker 2: I think that there is a little bit of a
Speaker 2: signal in terms of who ultimately succeeds at the NFL
Speaker 2: level and who doesn't. And I think it's more looking
Speaker 2: at the who doesn't, right, and what happened to those
Speaker 2: guys in their development arc? Right, and if they have
Speaker 2: a year of arrested development, where either their final year
Speaker 2: and I'm kind of looking at Caleb Williams when I'm
Speaker 2: saying this, right, if their final year in college was
Speaker 2: like a little bit of either a plateau or some regression, Like,
Speaker 2: I think that's a it's a red flag. Like, I
Speaker 2: think that that kind of tells tells you that, you know,
Speaker 2: the development arc stopped at some point, and that's potentially
Speaker 2: a problem. And if you come into the NFL and
Speaker 2: you take over a team like the Bears that have
Speaker 2: no wide receivers and the worst offensive line rostered in
Speaker 2: the NFL, like Justin Fields took over, your arrested development
Speaker 2: year is your rookie year as a quarterback?
Speaker 5: Right?
Speaker 2: And so the kind of the success stories to me,
Speaker 2: all have continuity where you were playing your best football
Speaker 2: as you were leaving college and you went to an
Speaker 2: organization that had you carried your development, you know, to
Speaker 2: where you could ultimately hit your ceiling right. And you know,
Speaker 2: everyone who has failed of the first round picks that
Speaker 2: you just rattled off either had an arrested development.
Speaker 5: Here in college or they had one in their first
Speaker 5: couple of years in the NFL.
Speaker 2: And so I think, you know, if we just look
Speaker 2: at it, you know, if we if we do a
Speaker 2: post draft kind of autopsy and you're like, okay, well,
Speaker 2: what do you think Caleb Williams to the Bears, I
Speaker 2: would say, I have reservations, Like his five year at
Speaker 2: college was not as good as his junior year, and
Speaker 2: now he's coming into a situation where, yes, things do
Speaker 2: look pretty good in terms of there is kind of
Speaker 2: talent and the cupboard is well stocked, but it's not
Speaker 2: clear and obvious to me that he's going to just
Speaker 2: jump right back on to the path he was in
Speaker 2: terms of development and progression. And then the same thing
Speaker 2: would go with somebody like Drake May. Okay, you're putting
Speaker 2: him on the Patriots, Like, I'm willing to kind of
Speaker 2: kind of strongly consider that's probably a wasted pick because
Speaker 2: that talent on that team right now is so poor
Speaker 2: that him having arrested development year and as his rookie
Speaker 2: year seems pretty likely. And then you know, let's assume
Speaker 2: that JJ McCarthy goes to the Vikings. If you're like,
Speaker 2: you know, hey, of these four, you know Jaden Dalen
Speaker 2: goes to the Commanders. Okay, of these four guys, you know,
Speaker 2: who's who's likely to have the best career. I would
Speaker 2: probably take the long shot price on JJ McCarthy because
Speaker 2: he's he kind of did start to hit his ceiling
Speaker 2: late in his college career, winning you know, the particularly
Speaker 2: in high leverage games at the end, and then carry
Speaker 2: that right onto a team and the Vikings that have
Speaker 2: a really good developer and O'Connell and exceptionally talented roster
Speaker 2: for you pass catchers, outstanding pass protection like whoever ultimately
Speaker 2: the Vikings get would be my bet, too, will be
Speaker 2: the success story of this draft class.
Speaker 3: Yeah.
Speaker 1: I don't know what the theory is in there, other
Speaker 1: than I agree with everything you said, because this isn't basketball,
Speaker 1: right where talent wins no matter where you are, right,
Speaker 1: Michael Jordan on the Wizards. That's about example, because he
Speaker 1: end up playing with Wizards. Michael Jackson on it, Mike,
Speaker 1: Michael Jordan on any team is going to be great, right.
Speaker 1: Baseball is a individual sport disguised as a team sport.
Speaker 1: So if you're a great hitter, you're gonna be a
Speaker 1: great hitter everywhere. Same with a great pitcher football. As
Speaker 1: you just displayed, right, there's so many moving parts to
Speaker 1: the system you end up in and how you fit
Speaker 1: into that system. There's no way to prove this, but
Speaker 1: I always use it as saying, if Peyton Manning were
Speaker 1: drafted by Washington, he would not have become the Peyton Manning.
Speaker 1: We know he's got some pedigree because he's got family.
Speaker 1: He wasn't he wouldn't have sucked, but he would never
Speaker 1: have become the paid minute because we had a different
Speaker 1: coordinator every year and a different coach every year. So
Speaker 1: I kind of I'm with you on all of that,
Speaker 1: And that's why that's where the cruelty is of the
Speaker 1: economic system, right, Because then you can only win a
Speaker 1: Super Bowl if you're a Hall of Famer, if you're
Speaker 1: a rookie quarterback over performing on a rookie contractor or
Speaker 1: guy overperforming on a rookie contract where you pay everybody
Speaker 1: else and then you win and that's your window. And
Speaker 1: then if you don't get it on that window, you're
Speaker 1: forced to commit nine figures to that player. And that
Speaker 1: player is often it's never clear, right, It's never clear
Speaker 1: that they're going to be Tom Brady or Aaron Rodgers.
Speaker 1: It's more like they're going to be Dak Prescott or
Speaker 1: Kirk Cousins or that kind of player where you're like, oh, well,
Speaker 1: I guess we got to give him nine figures because
Speaker 1: what's the alternative. So it's just so cruel, right. The
Speaker 1: whole thing is just a what an inexact science when
Speaker 1: you put it all in the mix.
Speaker 2: Yeah, especially if you do hit on a guy like
Speaker 2: a Josh Allen and you have some very close calls
Speaker 2: while he's on his contract, and then that's right. Ultimately
Speaker 2: you are doing what the Bills are doing this year,
Speaker 2: where you know, maybe they get the fifth best wide
Speaker 2: receiver in this draft as their wide receiver one next year,
Speaker 2: and that's a disaster.
Speaker 1: Yeah, so true. All right, So I just want to
Speaker 1: wrap this up by saying this, So if people are
Speaker 1: people right now, they stop listening to this podcast and
Speaker 1: they're going out and they're making a bet. Sounds like
Speaker 1: if they're fine with the minus two fifty on the
Speaker 1: under six and a half wide receivers, that's the play
Speaker 1: the under on Barton, we feel you guys feel really
Speaker 1: strongly about I feel super strong about Jade and Daniels
Speaker 1: going number two. It's creeping back up by the way.
Speaker 1: It's about minus one fifty five right now. But I
Speaker 1: everything I my intuition and what I think I know
Speaker 1: about that franchise is they're going to go Jade and Daniels.
Speaker 1: Did we leave out any other thing that is a
Speaker 1: must bet right now?
Speaker 3: Trades under six and a half?
Speaker 1: Trades that was the one I've forgotten, Luke, thank you.
Speaker 1: Trades under six and a half. That's the one me personally,
Speaker 1: when I leave this that's the one I'm looking for
Speaker 1: to see if we have that anywhere in town. Trades
Speaker 1: under six and a half, because that is a lot
Speaker 1: of trades, right like, that's not gonna happen, okay, and
Speaker 1: then everything else we we hope for the best.
Speaker 5: On but yeah, yeah, I picked something I find some
Speaker 5: find some absurd lung shots too.
Speaker 2: I mean there's there's you want to be a fun experience,
Speaker 2: and I don't know, there's like the Bridge Jumpers is
Speaker 2: a rough sweat, I'll be honest, like sitting there and wait,
Speaker 2: waiting and watching and counting as you're going through the
Speaker 2: late thirties where you're like, wait, did I really have
Speaker 2: any idea what these teams were looking for looking at?
Speaker 5: Not really? Uh, and yeah, all of the all of
Speaker 5: the yeah. So yeah, sweating out the super uh, the
Speaker 5: super juicy stuff is a little rough, so just be OneD.
Speaker 1: Yeah. But I think Luke made a little point of
Speaker 1: there that I don't want to gloss over, which is
Speaker 1: with those exacts. Those exactas which you said saved you
Speaker 1: last year, I think are like one, there's that scenario, right,
Speaker 1: you can sort of bet against what your other conviction is.
Speaker 1: But that is a whenever you have a correlation in there,
Speaker 1: and Drew you pointed out that one between Harrison and
Speaker 1: Neighbors back to back, I almost think that that's like,
Speaker 1: if you have that available to you, you almost have
Speaker 1: to include one or two of those because.
Speaker 4: That's yeah, yeah, yeah, And a lot of the books
Speaker 4: to offer parlays where you're parlaying round ones, or like
Speaker 4: on fandle, you can do cross, you can do first
Speaker 4: defensive player, first wide receiver parlays where the parlays are
Speaker 4: as well, just as good bets where parlaying five or
Speaker 4: six round winners that are minus three hundred are greater
Speaker 4: are great.
Speaker 3: Bets as well. But yeah, definitely diversify yourself in scenarios
Speaker 3: or you could have a really bad night.
Speaker 1: Drew, would you like to talk about the parlays that
Speaker 1: were available off of distant offshore location that they didn't
Speaker 1: they didn't turn off the button for well, yeah, I.
Speaker 2: Mean off the top of you said, would you take
Speaker 2: a small profit? Would you guarantee a small profit? And
Speaker 2: I said no, Well, I know, I already know that
Speaker 2: I'm there as of this moment, because correlated parlays were
Speaker 2: available for a hot minute and you could play. A
Speaker 2: good example was over over ten and a half defensive players,
Speaker 2: under twenty one and a half offensive players. And if
Speaker 2: you do the math right, unless there is.
Speaker 5: A special teams player who gets after.
Speaker 2: In the first round, or unless somebody, you know, unless
Speaker 2: the you know somebody gets a last second penalty from
Speaker 2: the NFL and they lose their first round pick, and
Speaker 2: there's only thirty one for round one picks. Those are
Speaker 2: perfectly correlated and so something that you should be betting
Speaker 2: at minus one thirty, you're betting at a plus one
Speaker 2: ninety and that's obviously a nice way to start the draft.
Speaker 2: So appreciate, you know, have tip to those folks for
Speaker 2: given us a chance. And I don't know other than that,
Speaker 2: it's been it's been very lean pickings in the offshore
Speaker 2: space as far as draft liquidity.
Speaker 3: And I get it, like you know, you don't.
Speaker 2: They don't want to loan, likes to kind of just
Speaker 2: give it all back for fun. And you're you're putting
Speaker 2: your resources as far as uh running a high you know,
Speaker 2: high limit book. You're putting your resources into the NBA
Speaker 2: playoffs right now, And I get that.
Speaker 5: So yeah, it is what it is. But yeah, it's
Speaker 5: been it's been a lean it's been a lean draft
Speaker 5: year ultimately for me.
Speaker 1: By the way, before we go n b A draft
Speaker 1: this year, like the will there even be any draft
Speaker 1: props out there for the NBA draft this year? It
Speaker 1: is considered to be the worst, the worst NBA draft
Speaker 1: in history. They say this year I.
Speaker 3: Mean they have an over for Lebron's what it's worth.
Speaker 5: Yeah, let's also remember we went, we went. I'm old
Speaker 5: enough to remember. You're Anthony Bennett went first overall.
Speaker 2: So let's let's let's uh, let's let's it's cool out
Speaker 2: jets until you see these guys play. But you know,
Speaker 2: I think the where what is true surely is this
Speaker 2: is the worst crop of college players. Like if if
Speaker 2: you hung a college players to be drafted in the
Speaker 2: top five prop right this minute, it's probably over half,
Speaker 2: and it's probably juiced to the under because I think
Speaker 2: it is the only guy, maybe the Kentucky shooter who
Speaker 2: goes in the top five, and even that feels like
Speaker 2: a reach. So it could be all G leaguers and
Speaker 2: international folks who fill up your top five or your board.
Speaker 2: And I think there's a couple of difference makers in there,
Speaker 2: but ultimately, yeah, probably no franchise changers.
Speaker 1: That'll make for a fun night when we don't know
Speaker 1: any of the players. That's awesome, sounds great, all right, guys,
Speaker 1: I really appreciate it. I think we touched on a
Speaker 1: lot here. May it all go well for us, may
Speaker 1: not be last year draft is on Thursday Night. Got
Speaker 1: a few days to listen to this, Luke swaying that
Speaker 1: Vegas refund. Luke, besides drafts, do you bet the rest
Speaker 1: of the year or you just a draft guy?
Speaker 3: Oh yeah, NFL college football at all?
Speaker 1: Okay, not at all, just making sure that people know
Speaker 1: at Vegas Refund and then Drew Dinsick of course at
Speaker 1: Whale Underscore Capper, Deep Dove podcast again with Andy Moltor
Speaker 1: and NBC Sports Bet the Edge with j Croucher. Love
Speaker 1: listening to both. Drew, you do a great job with
Speaker 1: both of them. Man, Drew gets a little frisk ear
Speaker 1: on the Deep Dive I noticed at times. So there's that.
Speaker 2: Yeah, we have a Yeah, it's a it's a it's
Speaker 2: a it's the Take Your Tie Off podcast.
Speaker 3: Yeah, it's uh.
Speaker 1: I like that kind of like this one.
Speaker 5: Pour Yourself, Pour Yourself, an adult pepperage type of podcast.
Speaker 1: All right, guys, I really appreciate it. Good luck, good
Speaker 1: luck to everybody with your picks in the twenty twenty
Speaker 1: four NFL Draft.