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Speaker 1: This is the Action Network Podcast. That's when you have

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Speaker 1: fun when you're kicking somebody's ass and they're sucking for

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Speaker 1: when I was good? Ready go bounder on the baseline, Bob, Yeah, way,

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Speaker 1: I'm sorry, possible Then there it is. Well wa Welcome

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Speaker 1: to the Action Network Podcast, presented by FanDuel. I'm Nick Giffen,

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Speaker 1: predictive analyst here at Action Network, and joining me is

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Speaker 1: our director of Predictive Analytics, Sean Kerner, Sean Wild Sweet

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Speaker 1: sixteen Elite eight round, and now we're down to four teams.

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Speaker 1: First of all, before we even get in our picks,

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Speaker 1: what do you think of this tournament?

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Speaker 2: It's been wild, You've been crushing it. I've been trying

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Speaker 2: to keep up with you, though not as successful, but

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Speaker 2: I'm trying to avenge last week. Man, I had two

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Speaker 2: just horrific beats last week, the Noel under I had

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Speaker 2: the key shot Johnson under and they gave him a

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Speaker 2: phantom rebound and go over by half. But that's what

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Speaker 2: makes this madness, That's what makes it so much fun.

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Speaker 2: So we're going to go two and oh here today

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Speaker 2: with a pretty heavy plus underdog.

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Speaker 1: I got for you too, nice. I'm definitely looking forward

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Speaker 1: to that. I have a nice plus underdog as well.

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Speaker 1: It's not going to be as long as yours, I see.

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Speaker 1: But yeah, we are into the final four. You know,

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Speaker 1: over the first two weekends, like you said, we've been

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Speaker 1: crushing it way up there in terms of our record.

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Speaker 1: I know mine is twenty nine and ten and we're

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Speaker 1: up several dozen units. So every pick we do give

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Speaker 1: it out is tracked in the Action Network app before

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Speaker 1: the games even starts. So make sure you download the

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Speaker 1: Action Network app and follow both Sean and myself for

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Speaker 1: all of our college basketball picks and other picks that

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Speaker 1: we give. Also, if you're looking for deep dives into

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Speaker 1: every game, we will have our other podcasts here in

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Speaker 1: the Action Network Big Bets on Campus, and we will

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Speaker 1: have extensive breakdowns on Actionnetwork dot Com and in the

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Speaker 1: Action App. So now it's time to dive into the

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Speaker 1: player props for the Final Four. Here, Sean, We're going

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Speaker 1: to begin with the Florida Atlantic versus San Diego State game.

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Speaker 1: Give us your first prop there.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, so for that game, I love John L. Davis

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Speaker 2: of Florida Atlantic to score the most points in the

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Speaker 2: game at plus three eighty. Now, first of all, this

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Speaker 2: is just going to be a low scoring game in general,

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Speaker 2: and both team's rank inside the top thirty in bench

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Speaker 2: minutes played. Therefore, you see nine players played between fifteen

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Speaker 2: and thirty minutes for each team, so you know points

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Speaker 2: are going to be pretty evenly distributed. And Davis has

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Speaker 2: our highest point projection at thirteen point six. In this game,

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Speaker 2: only three other players have a point projection over ten

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Speaker 2: from US two for Florida Atlantic one for San Diego State.

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Speaker 2: The only San Diego State player with the projection over

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Speaker 2: ten is Matt Bradley, who has been held to just

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Speaker 2: eight total points the past two games, an he's seen

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Speaker 2: his playing time dip way down to twenty minutes a

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Speaker 2: game the past two so he might not be as

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Speaker 2: big of a threat in this market as usual. But

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Speaker 2: I just love the floor ceiling combo that Davis has

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Speaker 2: in order to take down this market. In his eleven

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Speaker 2: games since he became a starter, he's only finished below

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Speaker 2: twelve points once and he's scored fifteen or more points

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Speaker 2: in five of the eleven games. And in this game,

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Speaker 2: that could be enough to take down this market. And

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Speaker 2: on the matchup side, you know San Diego State is

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Speaker 2: a great defensive team they ranked twentieth and effective field

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Speaker 2: goal percentage allowed. However, they can't play defense at the

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Speaker 2: free throw line, so I think that's where he could

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Speaker 2: have an edge here. He gets to the line at

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Speaker 2: the highest rate among Florida Atlantic players, and he's an

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Speaker 2: eighty six percent free throw shooter. That's one way he

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Speaker 2: can overcome this really tough matchup and not only be

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Speaker 2: the leading scorer for FAU, but for the entire game. So,

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Speaker 2: based on my sims, I have them finishing as a

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Speaker 2: top scorer around twenty four percent of the time, with

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Speaker 2: the true odds being closer to plus three twenty. So

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Speaker 2: I like the value we're getting here at plus three.

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Speaker 1: Eighty definitely, I like that. As you mentioned, we have

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Speaker 1: him projected as the top scorer in this game at

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Speaker 1: thirteen point six points. Second, we have Elijah Martin at

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Speaker 1: twelve point one. Third, we have Matt Bradley at eleven

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Speaker 1: point two, and fourth we have Vladislov Golden at ten.

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Speaker 1: Those are the four players I should say in this

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Speaker 1: game we have projected for double digits. Fifth, the enigmatic

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Speaker 1: Darien Trammell, who has bitten the last two weeks. There

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Speaker 1: So I'm glad you didn't say him, because you know

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Speaker 1: I'm going to keep taking his unders. It's not my

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Speaker 1: pick for this one, yeah, but I taking his unders.

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Speaker 1: I think I'll probably you know, look into another Darien

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Speaker 1: Tramill fade in the final four. But for my pick

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Speaker 1: from this game, I'm gonna take Micah Parrish under three

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Speaker 1: and a half rebounds at plus one point thirty. And

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Speaker 1: like you mentioned, Sean, both teams get a lot of

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Speaker 1: players involved. We have on San Diego State about nine

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Speaker 1: or ten players projected for at least fifteen minutes, so

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Speaker 1: there's going to be a lot of time where Micah

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Speaker 1: Parrish is not even on the floor. And in his

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Speaker 1: recent sample of games, he's pretty much played right around

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Speaker 1: half the minutes, a little bit under on some occasions,

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Speaker 1: a little bit over on some occasions. There wasn't twenty

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Speaker 1: eight minute game in there, but we're projecting him for

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Speaker 1: just over half of the minutes played. And Florida Atlantic themselves,

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Speaker 1: they're a very efficient shooting team, so we actually have

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Speaker 1: them projected to miss only thirty field goals. So if

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Speaker 1: you think about they're gonna miss thirty field goals of

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Speaker 1: ballpark and Michael Parrish is only to be on the

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Speaker 1: court for half of that. That means's only gonna be

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Speaker 1: on the court about fifteen or so rebound opportunities on

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Speaker 1: the defensive end. His defensive end, that's where he gets

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Speaker 1: most of his rebounds. He's much All players tend to

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Speaker 1: have a higher defensive than offensive rebound rate, but for

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Speaker 1: Parish it is definitely a big gap there. So if

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Speaker 1: we take his fifteen point five percent defensive rebound rate

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Speaker 1: on those fifteen available opportunities, that's puts him at about

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Speaker 1: two point two to two point three defensive boards. And

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Speaker 1: since he's not a big offensive rebound guy, I'm not

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Speaker 1: really worried about the matchup there or anything. We've been

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Speaker 1: projected for point eight offensive rebounds, which looks consistent with

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Speaker 1: his box score. So we're overall projecting Mike Ah Parrish

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Speaker 1: for about three point two rebounds and under three and

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Speaker 1: a half is at plus one thirty. We have him

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Speaker 1: favored to stay under we're getting plus money. I like

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Speaker 1: that one there. What do you think?

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Speaker 2: Yeah, No, just the fact that you're getting plus one

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Speaker 2: thirty is just icing on the cake on this. I

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Speaker 2: love your rationale. And yeah, we haven't projected for about

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Speaker 2: twenty minutes, but he has such a low floor. Again,

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Speaker 2: they just use such a heavy rotation that ultimately hurts

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Speaker 2: him in a market like this.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, for sure. So that is Seawn's pick and my

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Speaker 1: pick for San Diego State versus Florida Atlantic. But there

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Speaker 1: is another final four game going on. It is a

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Speaker 1: team you and I both had in our Final four,

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Speaker 1: Yukon versus surprisingly the Miami Hurricanes out of the ACC,

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Speaker 1: the ACC that has been taking a beating so far

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Speaker 1: in the tournament overall, with the exception of the Miami Hurricanes.

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Speaker 1: So Sean, first of all, holy crap with Miami, And

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Speaker 1: second of all, yeah, that's your pick here.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I think just Yukon making of the final four

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Speaker 2: is why my brackets in the ninety eight percentile. It's

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Speaker 2: just been wacky. And then I had Miami Florida losing

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Speaker 2: in the first round to Drake or Ken State whoever

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Speaker 2: it was that played way back two weeks ago. But yeah,

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Speaker 2: just crazy final four we have here. But for this game,

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Speaker 2: I'm going Nigel Pack under fourteen and a half points

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Speaker 2: at minus one twenty. It seems scary to fade him here,

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Speaker 2: just considering he's clear this nine of his last fifteen games.

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Speaker 2: He's averaged fifteen point seven points per game over that stretch,

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Speaker 2: and Yukon has averaged eighty point seven points per game

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Speaker 2: over that span. But now they face a Yukon defense

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Speaker 2: that ranks eleventh and Kim Palm's adjusted efficiency and their

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Speaker 2: team totals all the way down to seventy one point five,

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Speaker 2: so it's going to be much tougher for him to

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Speaker 2: score on this matchup. But this isn't even tougher matchup

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Speaker 2: for Pack, just considering Yukon has allowed the eighth lowest

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Speaker 2: effective field goal percentage ALOT in the country, and they

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Speaker 2: also send their opponents to the free throw line at

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Speaker 2: one of the highest rates in the country, and Pack

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Speaker 2: tends to get most of his points from the field.

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Speaker 2: He doesn't get to the line off and it's you

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Speaker 2: know long. Omir Miller all gets the line two three

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Speaker 2: times more often than Pack, So they should see a

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Speaker 2: slight uptick in scoring here, will Pack will certainly take

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Speaker 2: a hit. So that's why we're projecting Pack closer to

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Speaker 2: twelve and a half points here with a sixty one

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Speaker 2: percent chance of staying under fourteen a half points.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I'm right there with you that is one and

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Speaker 1: I was looking at and my play is actually going

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Speaker 1: to correlate with your play. But you mentioned that ninety

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Speaker 1: eighth percentile bracket. Obviously we had the same same final four,

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Speaker 1: so we're both ninety eight percentile in our bracket this year,

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Speaker 1: and we both had Miami going out in the first round,

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Speaker 1: so you know, we can't get everything right there, but

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Speaker 1: definitely surprising. So you're taking packs under and you mentioned

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Speaker 1: that could lead to some more points for some other guys.

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Speaker 1: That's where I'm gonna go with nord Chad Omir over

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Speaker 1: eleven and a half points, and you can get that

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Speaker 1: at plus one hundred. The thing I like here, as

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Speaker 1: you mentioned, you know Miami they are sorry Yukon, they're

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Speaker 1: they're really good at shutting down the three, and they

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Speaker 1: send their opponents to the line at a high rate. Well,

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Speaker 1: Omir doesn't take three pointers. He's made five all year.

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Speaker 1: You know, Omir scorts from inside and he gets to

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Speaker 1: the line, and Yukon is three hundred and sixty first

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Speaker 1: three und sixty first out of three hundred and sixty

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Speaker 1: three teams and percentage of points scored against them from three.

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Speaker 1: Since Omir doesn't take threes. That means they've got to

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Speaker 1: be really high in a percentage of points scored against them,

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Speaker 1: and two pointers and from the foul ion. Like I said,

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Speaker 1: that's where Omir exclusively scores from. And he is a

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Speaker 1: seventy three point three percent free throw shooter, so he's

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Speaker 1: good enough here to capitalize on those free throw opportunities.

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Speaker 1: It's not like he's at like fifty seven percent. So

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Speaker 1: I definitely think just the way this matchup is set up,

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Speaker 1: you're right at you know, Yukon is going to be

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Speaker 1: able to shut down Nigel Pack prevent some of those

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Speaker 1: three point shots from going in, and alternatively, Omir is

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Speaker 1: going to have to score inside here on Yukon. So

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Speaker 1: I think, you know, it's a nice correlated play we

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Speaker 1: have here. Sean, Yeah, no, I love this one.

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Speaker 2: Like I was alluding to, you know, Wong and Omir

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Speaker 2: certainly benefit just based on Yukon setting opposed to the

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Speaker 2: line so much. Kind of what I was saying with Davis's,

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Speaker 2: you know, leading the game and scoring. Yukon is a

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Speaker 2: great defensive team, however, they can't really defend free throws,

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Speaker 2: so getting to the free throw line is key here

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Speaker 2: and Omeer should be able to do that based on

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Speaker 2: the matchup.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, and that's why we haven't projected for twelve point

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Speaker 1: nine points, which is more than full point above that

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Speaker 1: eleven and a half, so even money there definitely like it.

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Speaker 1: So those are our two final four picks, one from Sean,

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Speaker 1: one from myself for each game, and that is going

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Speaker 1: to do it for the final four player Props episode

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Speaker 1: on the Action Network Podcast. Find more from Kerner and

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Speaker 1: myself on Action Network's website, and don't forget to download

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Speaker 1: the free, award winning Action Network app to follow all

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Speaker 1: of our props and other picks. Best of luck with

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Speaker 1: all your bets this weekend, and we'll see you next time.

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Speaker 1: On the Action Network Podcast. Presented by Fandal, Action Network

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Speaker 1: reminds you please gamble responsibly. If you or someone you

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Speaker 1: care about has a gambling problem, help is available twenty

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Speaker 1: four to seven at one eight hundred Gambler