Speaker 1: Hi, it's suksha. This week, the International Energy Agency published
Speaker 1: its flagship report, the World Energy Outlook. It's hundreds of
Speaker 1: pages long and makes some bold claims. It says that
Speaker 1: in the year twenty thirty, there will be ten times
Speaker 1: as many electric cars on the road as today, eighty
Speaker 1: percent of all new power generation will be solar or wind,
Speaker 1: and demand for fossil fuels that is, coal, oil, and
Speaker 1: gas will have peaked. The report is dominating climate news
Speaker 1: because what the IA says makes a big difference to
Speaker 1: how governments tweak their energy policies. But how did an
Speaker 1: organization formed by a handful of countries in response to
Speaker 1: the nineteen seventy three oil crisis come to hold so
Speaker 1: much influence over our response to the climate crisis? For
Speaker 1: the answer, this week, we are revisiting one of our
Speaker 1: favorite episodes, an interview with Fati Birol, the head of
Speaker 1: the IA, As we approach COP twenty eight by an
Speaker 1: oil power and led by the CEO of an oil company,
Speaker 1: it's good to understand how international organizations can be successfully
Speaker 1: transformed in the face of climate change. This story of
Speaker 1: the IA's transformation is just one of many I explore
Speaker 1: in detail in my book Climate Capitalism. I spoke with
Speaker 1: Fathi in Paris in March about the IA's changing priorities
Speaker 1: and how it has cemented its role in the energy transition.
Speaker 1: I hope you enjoy the conversation and we'll be back
Speaker 1: with a regular episode next week. Welcome to Zero. I'm Akshatarati.
Speaker 1: This week Dirty Data, directorial debuts and depolarized Debate. When
Speaker 1: you think about Paris, you think about the smell of
Speaker 1: butter rafting from pathesries, accordions laying outside the loof, and
Speaker 1: if you time it right, the occasional mass protest against
Speaker 1: pension reform. When I think about Paris, I think about
Speaker 1: the brutalless concrete building next to the Eiffel Tower. It's
Speaker 1: home to the International Energy Agency, a small but very
Speaker 1: influential intergovernmental organization that shapes all our futures, even if
Speaker 1: we don't know it. Better known as the IA, it
Speaker 1: was founded in nineteen seventy four in response to the
Speaker 1: oil crisis, and, according to its executive director, doctor Fati Birol,
Speaker 1: it started out as a rich man's energy club, working
Speaker 1: to make sure OECD member countries had enough oil at
Speaker 1: all times for decades. That was its mandate. The IA's
Speaker 1: work was key to creating strategic petroleum reserves, essentially huge
Speaker 1: tanks of crude stored away to be used in emergencies,
Speaker 1: but under FATI the organization has changed. It now offers
Speaker 1: different kinds of memberships, which has allowed it to bring
Speaker 1: on board giant energy consumers like India and China, even
Speaker 1: though they are not part of the OECD. The IA
Speaker 1: also looks out for the poor by working to ensure
Speaker 1: that they have access to energy, and after years of
Speaker 1: criticism for underestimating the growth potential of renewables, it has
Speaker 1: now become an authority on clean energy. In twenty twenty one,
Speaker 1: the IA made headlines around the world by releasing a
Speaker 1: report that said, if we want to achieve net zero
Speaker 1: by twenty fifty, there should be no new investment in
Speaker 1: fossil fuel infrastructure period. It's a big call for an
Speaker 1: organization founded to secure oil and a much needed correction
Speaker 1: welcomed by the climate community. The IA does not decide
Speaker 1: any country's energy policy. Its role is to analyze the
Speaker 1: state of the world and advise governments to act on crises.
Speaker 1: Look at what happened last year Russia invaded Ukraine and
Speaker 1: Within days, the I published a ten point plan for
Speaker 1: Europe on how it convened itself off Russian gas. The
Speaker 1: IE had no power to implement the plan, but its
Speaker 1: recommendations became europe wide policy anyway, spurring huge investments in
Speaker 1: clean energy across the continent.
Speaker 2: And I believe when we'll look back ten years from now,
Speaker 2: we will see that it was a major milestone in
Speaker 2: the history of energy, mainly driven by energy security and
Speaker 2: climate change concerns.
Speaker 1: FATI is able to say these things because of the
Speaker 1: IA's number crunching prowess. They receive energy data from its
Speaker 1: members and work intimately with governments, academics and companies to
Speaker 1: make predictions about current and future energy needs. I sat
Speaker 1: down with Fatig in Paris to ask when global emissions
Speaker 1: will peak, if it's possible to get there sooner, and
Speaker 1: how the International Energy Agency rebuilt itself to become fit
Speaker 1: for the climate year to be all.
Speaker 3: Welcome to the show, Thank you very much.
Speaker 1: Now we're here in Paris and we just had lunch,
Speaker 1: and you were telling me about your career before getting
Speaker 1: into the energy industry, and you started in films.
Speaker 2: Yes after I studied electrical engineering in Istanbul I taught
Speaker 2: at that time, and the engineering was dry occupation and
Speaker 2: I wanted to be more involved in the social issues
Speaker 2: and I made movies.
Speaker 3: First.
Speaker 2: I started with the eight millimeters movies. I got prices
Speaker 2: for that, and then I moved to thirty five millimeters,
Speaker 2: the normal movies. I was an assistant director for a
Speaker 2: few movies, and then I moved from Istanbul to Vienna
Speaker 2: and my main objective was to study film Academy. But
Speaker 2: as it happens, I found myself in the Technical University
Speaker 2: of Vienna studying energy economics. I am now watching movies,
Speaker 2: but not that them.
Speaker 1: So the world of energy just threw you in and
Speaker 1: you've never left since.
Speaker 3: No, because I found what I was looking for.
Speaker 2: Because energy is very much related to life of human beings,
Speaker 2: there's a very strong social aspect there and since many
Speaker 2: many years, I am working on energy and I'm very
Speaker 2: happy with that.
Speaker 1: Now, the IEA does important work, and we'll talk about
Speaker 1: a lot of that, But for the average person in
Speaker 1: the street, it's unlikely that they know about the organization. Yeah,
Speaker 1: what is it that the IEA does that makes their
Speaker 1: life better even if they don't know it?
Speaker 2: So we try to first of all, make the energy security.
Speaker 2: Everybody should have access to energy, both in developed and
Speaker 2: developing worlds, but our main attention is the developing world. Second,
Speaker 2: we want to make sure that energy is affordable for
Speaker 2: the people, that they can have enough money to buy
Speaker 2: the energy they are fuel and the dirt. We want
Speaker 2: to make sure that the air they breed is clean
Speaker 2: because some of the energy sources are the main drivers
Speaker 2: of air pollution or in other verse, the climate change.
Speaker 1: The IEA's roots, going back all the way into the seventies,
Speaker 1: lie in the world of energy security tied mostly to
Speaker 1: fossil fuels at that time. Even today majority of the
Speaker 1: energy is tied to fossil fuels. But the world is changing.
Speaker 1: And in twenty fourteen, when Russia invaded Crimea and there
Speaker 1: was panic over gas, you were pitching yourself to lead
Speaker 1: this organization. What was the pitch that you made.
Speaker 2: We were founded in nineteen seventy four. In fact, next
Speaker 2: year is our fifty birthday. I thought IEA is a
Speaker 2: wonderful organization. But there are two things missing. One of
Speaker 2: them is IEEV was known an authoititative energy organization, but
Speaker 2: organization of the rich men rich mass Energy Club. This
Speaker 2: is one art to be changed. And the second is
Speaker 2: I had pivotal role when it comes to the conventional
Speaker 2: energy technologies. But I thought, given the critical importance of
Speaker 2: climate change and the role of energy in causing climate change,
Speaker 2: there is a neat IDEA to accelerate his efforts under
Speaker 2: clean energy and the fight against climate change. So when
Speaker 2: I apply to be the head of the IEA, I said,
Speaker 2: there are two things I want to do if I
Speaker 2: was elected, and one of them was to open the
Speaker 2: doors of the IYEA to emerging world mainly Asia, but
Speaker 2: not only Africa, Latin America and others. And the second
Speaker 2: is to make the IDEA a hub for clean energy technologies.
Speaker 2: So I am very happy that the member governments of
Speaker 2: the IEA unanimously agreed and selected me as the head
Speaker 2: of the IYEA in twenty fifteen.
Speaker 1: Now you're coming up to the end of your second
Speaker 1: term as the head of the IEA. In that period,
Speaker 1: the agency has gone from being criticized for being too
Speaker 1: slow to project the growth of renewables being championed by
Speaker 1: climate activists for being the agency that says no new
Speaker 1: fossil fuel infrastructure should be built if we are to
Speaker 1: meet climate goals.
Speaker 3: So we are always criticized.
Speaker 2: Actually we were criticized being too slow, and we are
Speaker 2: now criticizers being too fast. But I think the people
Speaker 2: need the energy. We need fast and decisive leaders.
Speaker 1: So what do you think gives ie the credibility to
Speaker 1: have the kind of influence that it does on the
Speaker 1: world of energy.
Speaker 2: So we have expanded the number of experts working here substantially.
Speaker 2: For example, when I took over the IEA, we were
Speaker 2: about two hundred and ten people here and currently we
Speaker 2: are about two hundred and fifty people more or less
Speaker 2: with the same core budget. To be honest with you,
Speaker 2: but the big portion of the growth came from the
Speaker 2: clean energy, but cleenergy technologies, renewable energy efficiency. These are
Speaker 2: the areas that we grew and we have gained a
Speaker 2: very strong momentum in these areas. I was working with
Speaker 2: one of the leaders of the energy industry the other
Speaker 2: day and he was complaining with it. They are not
Speaker 2: able to recruit young people, even though they give a
Speaker 2: very good salaries, much better than the IDEA, because many
Speaker 2: young people when they finish their university, they really looking
Speaker 2: for a purpose, not only for money. And at the
Speaker 2: IDEA we are overwhelmed with the interest from the young people,
Speaker 2: and I am very happy that my Colaxia find the
Speaker 2: purpose and they know that the work they are doing
Speaker 2: has a real word impact.
Speaker 3: Well, at least we are working towards that.
Speaker 1: Now, we've seen a full scale invasion of Ukraine by
Speaker 1: Russia and we've seen what impact that's had on Europe
Speaker 1: as it tried to move away from Russian fossil fuels
Speaker 1: at a very rapid base. That's led to decreasing the
Speaker 1: amount of gas that's being burned and ramping up of renewables.
Speaker 1: How do you think Europe can make the most of
Speaker 1: the current moment to pursue its long term goals which
Speaker 1: are tied to a clean energy agenda.
Speaker 2: So we are twenty fourth of February last year Russia
Speaker 2: invadio Ukraine and one of the things I am proud
Speaker 2: of the idea is we are very nimble. Twenty fourth
Speaker 2: of February was the invasion. First of March, one week later,
Speaker 2: we came out with a ten point plan what Europe
Speaker 2: should do in order to reduce the reliance on Russia,
Speaker 2: but at the same time making sure that the measures
Speaker 2: we are taking are not against our climate goals.
Speaker 3: And some of the measures.
Speaker 2: When I discussed if the government leaders, they were found
Speaker 2: very radical. For example, we set in Europe we have
Speaker 2: to bring the room temperature two degrees low. We have
Speaker 2: to see a major increase of renewables as a result
Speaker 2: of cutting the permitting and licensing time of these renewable installations.
Speaker 2: Or we set two countries Belgium and Germany please consider
Speaker 2: not to shut down your nuclear power plants extend for
Speaker 2: some time. Those are all now implemented. What I see
Speaker 2: when I look at Europe today one year later, I
Speaker 2: think we have all the reasons to congregeate European decision makers.
Speaker 2: I give a couple of numbers, as you know, actually
Speaker 2: I am a man of numbers, so I make my
Speaker 2: hands dirty with data every day. So first, Russia's oil
Speaker 2: and gas revenues declined by forty percent.
Speaker 3: This is very important.
Speaker 2: The country that invaded and aggressed another country, their revenues
Speaker 2: went down. Second, the share of gas in Europe before
Speaker 2: the invasion was about forty percent coming from Russia, and
Speaker 2: now the Russian gas in Europe is less than five percent.
Speaker 2: Renewables installation Europe increased by forty percent, Heat pumps increased
Speaker 2: by forty percent, and on top of that the cherry
Speaker 2: and the cake. In my view, while fighting against this aggression,
Speaker 2: European emissions declined by two point five percent. So you
Speaker 2: were able to in Europe keep the lads on. You
Speaker 2: were able to push the clean energy and at the
Speaker 2: same time reduce the emissions. I think this success story.
Speaker 2: But the game is not finished. This is the first
Speaker 2: half of the match. The second half will be what
Speaker 2: will happen the coming winter and the winters in front
Speaker 2: of us.
Speaker 1: There is still a narrative, especially in the energy industry,
Speaker 1: that says much of the crisis that Europe faced was
Speaker 1: because of a lack of investment in fossil fuels. But
Speaker 1: you say that that is a mistaken idea, and you're.
Speaker 2: Yes, you are completely right. Actually, I believe the lasting
Speaker 2: solutions to energy of security goes through increase in the
Speaker 2: share of clean and edge. In fact, one of the
Speaker 2: reasons why we have seen such a big increase in
Speaker 2: renewables in Europe. It is not driven by climate concerns meanly,
Speaker 2: it is mainly driven by any ergy of security concerns. Today,
Speaker 2: energy security is the most important driver of renewables around
Speaker 2: the world, and I believe this will continue when we
Speaker 2: look at fossil fuels first, and there's a lot of
Speaker 2: the discutch in many countries. Shall we build a or
Speaker 2: develop a new oil field, this will help us for
Speaker 2: the Russian energy crisis. I think there are at least
Speaker 2: three mistakes there. One, if you start the oil field today,
Speaker 2: the first oil will come to you an average six
Speaker 2: seven years later.
Speaker 3: This is number one.
Speaker 2: Number two, the electric cars are growing very very strongly,
Speaker 2: very strongly, so I am not sure that in six
Speaker 2: seven years of time the world will need edition oil
Speaker 2: production growth. So this is the second mistake. The third
Speaker 2: one is the of course, climate change. So I discussed
Speaker 2: this issue all the time. I tell the companies who
Speaker 2: push this idea, as you rightly mentioned the fossil fuel investments,
Speaker 2: I said, I have no problem if an oil company
Speaker 2: says I AM going to increase my production by three
Speaker 2: million barteries per day, five millions price or this person.
Speaker 3: This is their view.
Speaker 2: They can do whatever they But my problem is if
Speaker 2: a company says I AM going to increase my production
Speaker 2: by three million buds per day five million bus per day,
Speaker 2: and my company's strategy is in land with the party scores.
Speaker 2: This is not true. This cannot even both of them
Speaker 2: cannot oppen at the same time. I am sorry, but
Speaker 2: they have to choose one of them, and I will
Speaker 2: try to push those countries to choose one of them.
Speaker 2: I hope they choose the good one.
Speaker 1: Now, the world of energy and climate have been for
Speaker 1: some time polarized. There has been a real need to
Speaker 1: try and bridge the gap. The IA has performed an
Speaker 1: important role to help make that happen. However, still you
Speaker 1: get these examples which don't seem logical. Just to give
Speaker 1: you one, Joe Biden, President of the US, is keen
Speaker 1: on making sure that the US meets its climate goals,
Speaker 1: worked on a big bill that was passed last year,
Speaker 1: the Inflation Reduction Act. At the same time, they have
Speaker 1: just approved a new eight billion dollar oil project in
Speaker 1: Alaska that goes against the advice that is given that
Speaker 1: no new oil and gas infrastructure is needed. Why is
Speaker 1: it that you continue to see these seemingly illogical steps
Speaker 1: taken by people who understand the science, who understand the importance.
Speaker 2: So actually, if one of the ambitions that I have
Speaker 2: as head of the IDEA is to make the energy
Speaker 2: world and the climate world talk to each other and
Speaker 2: find common ground. It is the reason I believe there
Speaker 2: is a need to build a equal grant coalition, government's industry,
Speaker 2: investors in jures who are sincerely I underland this sincerely
Speaker 2: intend to address our climate challenge. I give you one example.
Speaker 2: A few months ago I was in that was in
Speaker 2: the morning I had meeting with a greater turn back
Speaker 2: and in the afternoon I had a meeting with the
Speaker 2: CEO of a mining company, and in the evening I
Speaker 2: had a meeting with the prime minister of a European country.
Speaker 2: So we need to bring them together. We cannot be
Speaker 2: too selective here and only only if we can build
Speaker 2: this grant coalition we can reach our climate course. So
Speaker 2: this is our job, and the wind comes the Information
Speaker 2: Induction Act. In my view, it is the single most
Speaker 2: important climate action since partis twenty fifteen Agreement, and I
Speaker 2: hope it will be implemented in the right way.
Speaker 1: So in that context, how do you make sense of
Speaker 1: the Biden administration approving an eight billion dollar project that
Speaker 1: extracts oil for thirty years in Alaska.
Speaker 2: So it is up to the uscal one to decide
Speaker 2: how they're going to secure their energy supplies. But I
Speaker 2: would tell you that if I have to look at
Speaker 2: the US energy and climate policy, if I have to
Speaker 2: single out wanting, it is the Inflation Reduction Act, which
Speaker 2: is in my view, the single most important action since
Speaker 2: Partis Agreement in twenty fifteen. As far as the climate
Speaker 2: change is concerned, if countries take decisions which we believe
Speaker 2: not consistent with each other, we try to pinpoint them.
Speaker 1: After the break, three numbers you should remember and what
Speaker 1: we can do to make emission speak sooner. In one
Speaker 1: of our previous conversations, you had said that the IA's
Speaker 1: strength comes from taking the right position and then having
Speaker 1: the backbone supported by the numbers to hold that position.
Speaker 1: If we had to talk about three numbers that matter
Speaker 1: for the moment we are in, what would they be?
Speaker 2: Tree is in fact too little. But the first number
Speaker 2: I would say is eight hundred million. Today about eight
Speaker 2: hundred million people have no access to electrics. This is
Speaker 2: my biggest peroccupation, especially in subsan Africa. Every second person
Speaker 2: have no access to electrics. This is number one. Number
Speaker 2: two one point four one point four is today the
Speaker 2: clean energy investments in the entire word is one point
Speaker 2: four trillion dollar with avery one trillion fossil fuse, and
Speaker 2: in order to have an orderly planet, this one point
Speaker 2: four needs to go to four trillion twenty thirty, and
Speaker 2: most of them needs to come from the developing countries.
Speaker 2: This is the challenge. And the third one is the
Speaker 2: fifty percent. What is this fifty percent? Even most conservative estimates,
Speaker 2: in twenty thirty, every second car, fifty percent of all
Speaker 2: the cars sold in China, Europe and the United States
Speaker 2: will be an electric car. So this will change the
Speaker 2: game significantly. So there are three numbers. Eight hundred million,
Speaker 2: one point four trillion, and fifty percent.
Speaker 1: Now, if you stick to the trillion dollar figure, there
Speaker 1: as you say, countries will need four trillion dollars of
Speaker 1: annual investments in clean energy to be able to meet
Speaker 1: energy access and climate goals. What is the way in
Speaker 1: which that amount of money could come through developing countries
Speaker 1: and finance? What is an absolutely necessary transition?
Speaker 2: You asked me choose three numbers. If you ask me
Speaker 2: to choose one term, which is for me very important,
Speaker 2: I would say the fault line today, the fault line
Speaker 2: of our fight against climate change is how they will
Speaker 2: financetic clean edergy investment developing countries First of all, the
Speaker 2: climate change problem we have today is not only the
Speaker 2: result of the emissions of today, but it's the concentration
Speaker 2: of the carbon atmosphere since one hundred years and eighty
Speaker 2: percent of these emissions came from the advanced economies. Today
Speaker 2: they were responsible to clean up. So this is number one.
Speaker 2: Number two, I think there is a huge potential of
Speaker 2: clean energy in the developing countries, much more than the
Speaker 2: advanced economies. But the money, the capital and these projects
Speaker 2: don't meet each other because of the risks involved. So
Speaker 2: therefore there is a role for the intentional financial institutions
Speaker 2: and they, in my view, they failed, and I hope
Speaker 2: that they will resume the role of organizations which look
Speaker 2: after the sustainability of the global economy and put the
Speaker 2: clean energy transition top of the agenda. And I see
Speaker 2: these two things. The responsible for the advanced rich countries
Speaker 2: and the growing role of the MDBs is key in
Speaker 2: order to address fault line issue, namely exciting clean energy
Speaker 2: investment developing countries.
Speaker 1: One other way in which we can accelerate the clean
Speaker 1: energy transition and developing countries is through transferring lessons learned
Speaker 1: by one country to another. One of the chapters in
Speaker 1: my book is about how India developed its solar industry
Speaker 1: and how you have worked with the Indian government to
Speaker 1: figure out the lessons from the growth of solar and
Speaker 1: help other countries to deploy some of those examples. Can
Speaker 1: you give me more examples of where what the IEA
Speaker 1: does beyond publishing reports about where the world is going
Speaker 1: on a more granular level to transfer lessons from one
Speaker 1: country to another.
Speaker 2: In energy policy, if there are policies, measures, standards and
Speaker 2: norms works in one country, it would with some calibration,
Speaker 2: it will work in another country. We say in Turkish
Speaker 2: you don't need to hit your head on the world
Speaker 2: to understand and it is hard. So this day is
Speaker 2: the experience in front of you. So we are sharing
Speaker 2: experience of country A with country B and giving them advice.
Speaker 2: One example efficiency. So what we are doing and is
Speaker 2: just for an example around the world telling the collics.
Speaker 2: How are you going to draft the efficiency standards for refrigerators?
Speaker 2: This is very important and this is the key issue
Speaker 2: we work with Indian government and how you put the
Speaker 2: efficiency standards for the air conditions? A top reason for
Speaker 2: the actorsy demand growth. So we are providing these experiences,
Speaker 2: sharing the experiences not only from the advanced economies to
Speaker 2: developing countries, but within the developing countries. For example, India
Speaker 2: is an excellent example of led lighting. We have provided
Speaker 2: this experience to Indonesia, and Indonesia is using some of
Speaker 2: the elements of the ad lighting success story at home.
Speaker 2: So this is our job to share the experience and
Speaker 2: good ones and also a bad one to learn from
Speaker 2: each other.
Speaker 1: You've called what happened last year the first global energy crisis,
Speaker 1: which would feel a little bit odd given we've had
Speaker 1: energy crisis in the past. Why is this the first
Speaker 1: global energy crisis and what will trigger the next one?
Speaker 2: You're completed at We hit crisis in the past seventies
Speaker 2: and eighties, but they were only focused on oil, and
Speaker 2: now we have oil, natural gas, even in the coal markets.
Speaker 3: The reason is very simple.
Speaker 2: Russia was the number one energy exporter of the world,
Speaker 2: number one oil exporter, number one nature gas exporter, big
Speaker 2: play in the coal markets, uranium, electors and everything, and
Speaker 2: we have seen the effects of this not only in
Speaker 2: Europe but across the world. Is a result of price effects. Now,
Speaker 2: what could be another crisis? There are many candidates for that, unfortunately.
Speaker 2: But what I see a risk today is we just
Speaker 2: discussed the clean energy is growing. They don't need phossil fuse.
Speaker 2: They need other things such as critical minners, such as
Speaker 2: the manufacturing of the clean ergy technologies. And when I
Speaker 2: look at the picture today, there is also a concentration
Speaker 2: here like we heat for oil, like we haate in
Speaker 2: natural gas. For example, more than eighty percent of the
Speaker 2: PV is in China. And forget the eighty percent, when
Speaker 2: you look at to all the modules of the PV manufacturing,
Speaker 2: from eight to ninety percent it is in China, and
Speaker 2: it is maybe even one single province and two major
Speaker 2: industry facilities. If there's a fire there, the entire supply
Speaker 2: chain will be disrupted. So it is not against China
Speaker 2: or anything, but relies on one single country, one single company,
Speaker 2: one single trade route is always risky.
Speaker 3: In my view.
Speaker 2: The magic world here is a diversification. We have to
Speaker 2: diversify this and to have a clean and secure energy future,
Speaker 2: relies in many countries around what follows the footsteps of
Speaker 2: China and make sure that they have enough access to
Speaker 2: critical miners and the manufacturing of the clean energy technologies.
Speaker 1: Another outcome of the energy crisis has been record profits
Speaker 1: for fossil fuel companies. Saudi Aramco posted a record profit
Speaker 1: of one hundred and sixty billion dollars. Just to put
Speaker 1: that in context, Apple had a profit of about twenty
Speaker 1: five billion dollars. At the same time, the world needs
Speaker 1: to invest a lot more money in clean energy. How
Speaker 1: do you find a way to move vast profits in
Speaker 1: fossil fuels toward encouraging those companies which have to be
Speaker 1: a part of the transition to invest in clean energy?
Speaker 3: Akshat.
Speaker 2: You look every year how much profits the oil and
Speaker 2: gas companies make on average. Until last year they were
Speaker 2: making about one point four one point five trillion dollar
Speaker 2: and last year their profits in care is to four
Speaker 2: trillion dollars, more than double. So I very much hope
Speaker 2: these companies would use this a huge amount of I
Speaker 2: call that windfall profit in order to accelit their clean
Speaker 2: energy efforts. It can be hydrogen, it can be carbon
Speaker 2: capture storage, it can be offshore, with many options. But
Speaker 2: what I see what is happening is not necessarily in
Speaker 2: line with my hopes and expectations. Some of them goes
Speaker 2: back to the shareholders, others go to the phossil fuel investments.
Speaker 3: I very much hope.
Speaker 2: That they would do what they say, because all of
Speaker 2: these companies are saying that the clean energy is very
Speaker 2: important for that and they have the abilities, engineering skills,
Speaker 2: the management of running huge projects, and a lot of
Speaker 2: experience in order to exit the clean energy technology deployment.
Speaker 2: If you ask me whether or not I see acceleration that,
Speaker 2: my answer would be not necessarily.
Speaker 1: You're a rare person running an intergovernmental organization. You have
Speaker 1: a PhD in economics, You have not run an election
Speaker 1: public election. You are a technocrat. Most intergovernmental organizations are
Speaker 1: run by politicians. What are the advantages of being a
Speaker 1: technocrat running an intergovernmental organization?
Speaker 3: So I never run for office. I did once.
Speaker 2: It was when I was nine years old, to be
Speaker 2: the represent of the class of the students, and I
Speaker 2: lost it to somebody.
Speaker 1: Else and then you said never again.
Speaker 3: So no, I was second. So I was the vice
Speaker 3: the representat of the class.
Speaker 2: Politics is at the heart of the energy, but I
Speaker 2: didn't want to be part of a political party. And
Speaker 2: you are right before me. There were distinguished ia ages
Speaker 2: of directors. My predecessor, for example, was the former Minister
Speaker 2: of Economy of Netherlands, I came within the ranks. The
Speaker 2: advantage is you have a command of the issues, the
Speaker 2: energy issues. You know the numbers, and I always say
Speaker 2: data always wins.
Speaker 1: When you were elected to be the head of the IA,
Speaker 1: the first speeches you gave were in Beijing and New Delhi. Beijing.
Speaker 1: If we look at it, yes, it's emissions are still
Speaker 1: rising and they do have to peak sooner. But they
Speaker 1: have taken green technologies and run with it. All the
Speaker 1: major technologies that we know, solar panels, winterbines, batteries, electric cars,
Speaker 1: now hydrogen. All China is leading the world on the
Speaker 1: same can't be said about India. When do you think
Speaker 1: India will be able to grab onto its potential for
Speaker 1: clean energy, both for development but also for climate targets.
Speaker 2: I think you made your homework very well. I should
Speaker 2: congreguate you for that. In order to underscore the vision
Speaker 2: I put forward name opening the Doors of the Emerging World.
Speaker 2: The first week after I became the head of the IEA,
Speaker 2: I gave my first speech in Beijing, followed by a
Speaker 2: new daily. The reason is that to show the world
Speaker 2: and these two important players in the global energy scene
Speaker 2: that we want to work with them. We want to
Speaker 2: make sure that the energy is secure but at the
Speaker 2: same time clean. China is the undisputable leader of clean
Speaker 2: energy around the world today. But I am much more
Speaker 2: optimistic about India than many others. People are too much
Speaker 2: focused on the cold story in India. This is a
Speaker 2: real story, definitely, but look at what is happening with
Speaker 2: the solar It is a huge, huge success story. And
Speaker 2: if I had time, and if I was a journalist
Speaker 2: or a researcher, I would make a book or an
Speaker 2: essay and the India Solar Revolution and there it will
Speaker 2: be a inspiration for many countries, including those in Africa.
Speaker 3: Very soon.
Speaker 2: With India, I am expecting and it is also based
Speaker 2: on my meeting with Prime Minister Moody. India will make
Speaker 2: a lot of in laws in the clean energy technology
Speaker 2: manufacturing as well, because India doesn't want to build the
Speaker 2: solar panels which they input from other countries and want
Speaker 2: to be independent die which is excellent and it helps
Speaker 2: to the point I try to make the diversification of
Speaker 2: the sources. I'm very hopeful about India because India, when
Speaker 2: you look at the Indian energy history in the last
Speaker 2: few years, there are many impressive achievements which are not
Speaker 2: very much hurt around the world, providing access to electricity
Speaker 2: almost five hundred million people in a very short period
Speaker 2: of time population of Europe. There is a program that
Speaker 2: is not very much known in the most of the
Speaker 2: world called Uzhuala program in Indian. Many countries, women and
Speaker 2: children die prematurely because of the desperate diseases because of
Speaker 2: the practices using wood, agricultural waste, animal waste, and in
Speaker 2: Asia it is one of the top three reasons for
Speaker 2: premature death. So Ushuala program gave cleanly nurgy solutions to
Speaker 2: the women and children. This is the second one. I
Speaker 2: expect that India will be a major driver of clean energy,
Speaker 2: similar with China.
Speaker 1: Europe did cut its emissions by two point five twenty
Speaker 1: twenty two, but the world still hit a new peak
Speaker 1: of emissions. According to your own data, when do you
Speaker 1: see global emissions speaking and how can we get there faster?
Speaker 2: So you're right, our data shows that the last year
Speaker 2: global emissions did increase. But if we remember the discussions
Speaker 2: beginning of the energy crisis, there was a major concern
Speaker 2: that we will see run away emissions, big growth. Why
Speaker 2: the growth was so subdued. If I may say so,
Speaker 2: it is because of the unprecedented growth of clean energy.
Speaker 2: If this growth didn't happen, the emission increases will be
Speaker 2: three times higher. And I believe when we look back
Speaker 2: ten years from now to twenty twenty two, we will
Speaker 2: see that it was a major milestone in the history
Speaker 2: of energy where we see a turbo charging of clean
Speaker 2: energy transitions mainly driven by energy security and climate change concerns.
Speaker 2: When do we peak? If we are committed to one
Speaker 2: point five degree target, which I is, we here to
Speaker 2: see the emissions peak around twenty twenty five. And when
Speaker 2: I look at all the countries around the world, the
Speaker 2: most important uncertainty here is China. Chinese is the single
Speaker 2: largest emitter of the world. China is saying the official
Speaker 2: statement they want their emissions to peak before twenty thirty.
Speaker 2: But when I look at the Chinese numbers, my expectation
Speaker 2: is Chinese peak will be before two anti thirty and
Speaker 2: it will help the global emissions speak. But this wouldn't
Speaker 2: be enough in my view to be in line with
Speaker 2: the one point five degree target, but will bring us
Speaker 2: closer to that.
Speaker 1: Thank you so much for this conversation.
Speaker 3: Thank you very much. Thank you.
Speaker 1: I've talked to Fathi several times over the past few years,
Speaker 1: and when I asked him what he wants his legacy
Speaker 1: to be, he said he wanted the IA to address
Speaker 1: the two biggest challenges of this century, climate change and
Speaker 1: access to energy for all. Both are issues that will
Speaker 1: take decades to solve, but the changes that the IA
Speaker 1: has made shows how international organizations can reorient themselves for
Speaker 1: the climate era. The research for this episode is based
Speaker 1: on work I did for my book Climate Capitalism that
Speaker 1: will be published later this year. I hope you'll give
Speaker 1: it a read when it's out. Thanks for listening to Zero.
Speaker 1: If you liked this episode, please take a moment to
Speaker 1: rate and review the show on Apple Podcasts or Spotify,
Speaker 1: send it to a friend, or share it with your
Speaker 1: favorite patisier. If you've got a suggestion for guests, or
Speaker 1: topics or something you just want us to look into,
Speaker 1: get in touch at Zero pod at Bloomberg dot Net.
Speaker 1: Zero's producer is Oscar Boyd and senior producer is Christine Risco.
Speaker 1: Our theme music is composed by Wonderly Special thanks to
Speaker 1: Kira Bindram, Eric Rosston and Will Mathis. I'm Akshatrati back
Speaker 1: next week.
Speaker 2: When you partly shit. How long would it be so
Speaker 2: people have patience to really, I wouldn't usen myself, which
Speaker 2: is amazing.
Speaker 3: So this is Yeah,