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Speaker 1: Hi, it's suksha. This week, the International Energy Agency published

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Speaker 1: its flagship report, the World Energy Outlook. It's hundreds of

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Speaker 1: pages long and makes some bold claims. It says that

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Speaker 1: in the year twenty thirty, there will be ten times

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Speaker 1: as many electric cars on the road as today, eighty

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Speaker 1: percent of all new power generation will be solar or wind,

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Speaker 1: and demand for fossil fuels that is, coal, oil, and

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Speaker 1: gas will have peaked. The report is dominating climate news

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Speaker 1: because what the IA says makes a big difference to

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Speaker 1: how governments tweak their energy policies. But how did an

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Speaker 1: organization formed by a handful of countries in response to

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Speaker 1: the nineteen seventy three oil crisis come to hold so

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Speaker 1: much influence over our response to the climate crisis? For

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Speaker 1: the answer, this week, we are revisiting one of our

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Speaker 1: favorite episodes, an interview with Fati Birol, the head of

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Speaker 1: the IA, As we approach COP twenty eight by an

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Speaker 1: oil power and led by the CEO of an oil company,

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Speaker 1: it's good to understand how international organizations can be successfully

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Speaker 1: transformed in the face of climate change. This story of

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Speaker 1: the IA's transformation is just one of many I explore

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Speaker 1: in detail in my book Climate Capitalism. I spoke with

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Speaker 1: Fathi in Paris in March about the IA's changing priorities

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Speaker 1: and how it has cemented its role in the energy transition.

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Speaker 1: I hope you enjoy the conversation and we'll be back

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Speaker 1: with a regular episode next week. Welcome to Zero. I'm Akshatarati.

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Speaker 1: This week Dirty Data, directorial debuts and depolarized Debate. When

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Speaker 1: you think about Paris, you think about the smell of

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Speaker 1: butter rafting from pathesries, accordions laying outside the loof, and

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Speaker 1: if you time it right, the occasional mass protest against

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Speaker 1: pension reform. When I think about Paris, I think about

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Speaker 1: the brutalless concrete building next to the Eiffel Tower. It's

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Speaker 1: home to the International Energy Agency, a small but very

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Speaker 1: influential intergovernmental organization that shapes all our futures, even if

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Speaker 1: we don't know it. Better known as the IA, it

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Speaker 1: was founded in nineteen seventy four in response to the

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Speaker 1: oil crisis, and, according to its executive director, doctor Fati Birol,

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Speaker 1: it started out as a rich man's energy club, working

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Speaker 1: to make sure OECD member countries had enough oil at

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Speaker 1: all times for decades. That was its mandate. The IA's

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Speaker 1: work was key to creating strategic petroleum reserves, essentially huge

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Speaker 1: tanks of crude stored away to be used in emergencies,

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Speaker 1: but under FATI the organization has changed. It now offers

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Speaker 1: different kinds of memberships, which has allowed it to bring

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Speaker 1: on board giant energy consumers like India and China, even

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Speaker 1: though they are not part of the OECD. The IA

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Speaker 1: also looks out for the poor by working to ensure

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Speaker 1: that they have access to energy, and after years of

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Speaker 1: criticism for underestimating the growth potential of renewables, it has

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Speaker 1: now become an authority on clean energy. In twenty twenty one,

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Speaker 1: the IA made headlines around the world by releasing a

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Speaker 1: report that said, if we want to achieve net zero

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Speaker 1: by twenty fifty, there should be no new investment in

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Speaker 1: fossil fuel infrastructure period. It's a big call for an

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Speaker 1: organization founded to secure oil and a much needed correction

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Speaker 1: welcomed by the climate community. The IA does not decide

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Speaker 1: any country's energy policy. Its role is to analyze the

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Speaker 1: state of the world and advise governments to act on crises.

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Speaker 1: Look at what happened last year Russia invaded Ukraine and

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Speaker 1: Within days, the I published a ten point plan for

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Speaker 1: Europe on how it convened itself off Russian gas. The

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Speaker 1: IE had no power to implement the plan, but its

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Speaker 1: recommendations became europe wide policy anyway, spurring huge investments in

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Speaker 1: clean energy across the continent.

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Speaker 2: And I believe when we'll look back ten years from now,

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Speaker 2: we will see that it was a major milestone in

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Speaker 2: the history of energy, mainly driven by energy security and

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Speaker 2: climate change concerns.

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Speaker 1: FATI is able to say these things because of the

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Speaker 1: IA's number crunching prowess. They receive energy data from its

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Speaker 1: members and work intimately with governments, academics and companies to

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Speaker 1: make predictions about current and future energy needs. I sat

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Speaker 1: down with Fatig in Paris to ask when global emissions

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Speaker 1: will peak, if it's possible to get there sooner, and

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Speaker 1: how the International Energy Agency rebuilt itself to become fit

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Speaker 1: for the climate year to be all.

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Speaker 3: Welcome to the show, Thank you very much.

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Speaker 1: Now we're here in Paris and we just had lunch,

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Speaker 1: and you were telling me about your career before getting

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Speaker 1: into the energy industry, and you started in films.

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Speaker 2: Yes after I studied electrical engineering in Istanbul I taught

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Speaker 2: at that time, and the engineering was dry occupation and

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Speaker 2: I wanted to be more involved in the social issues

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Speaker 2: and I made movies.

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Speaker 3: First.

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Speaker 2: I started with the eight millimeters movies. I got prices

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Speaker 2: for that, and then I moved to thirty five millimeters,

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Speaker 2: the normal movies. I was an assistant director for a

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Speaker 2: few movies, and then I moved from Istanbul to Vienna

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Speaker 2: and my main objective was to study film Academy. But

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Speaker 2: as it happens, I found myself in the Technical University

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Speaker 2: of Vienna studying energy economics. I am now watching movies,

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Speaker 2: but not that them.

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Speaker 1: So the world of energy just threw you in and

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Speaker 1: you've never left since.

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Speaker 3: No, because I found what I was looking for.

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Speaker 2: Because energy is very much related to life of human beings,

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Speaker 2: there's a very strong social aspect there and since many

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Speaker 2: many years, I am working on energy and I'm very

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Speaker 2: happy with that.

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Speaker 1: Now, the IEA does important work, and we'll talk about

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Speaker 1: a lot of that, But for the average person in

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Speaker 1: the street, it's unlikely that they know about the organization. Yeah,

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Speaker 1: what is it that the IEA does that makes their

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Speaker 1: life better even if they don't know it?

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Speaker 2: So we try to first of all, make the energy security.

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Speaker 2: Everybody should have access to energy, both in developed and

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Speaker 2: developing worlds, but our main attention is the developing world. Second,

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Speaker 2: we want to make sure that energy is affordable for

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Speaker 2: the people, that they can have enough money to buy

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Speaker 2: the energy they are fuel and the dirt. We want

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Speaker 2: to make sure that the air they breed is clean

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Speaker 2: because some of the energy sources are the main drivers

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Speaker 2: of air pollution or in other verse, the climate change.

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Speaker 1: The IEA's roots, going back all the way into the seventies,

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Speaker 1: lie in the world of energy security tied mostly to

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Speaker 1: fossil fuels at that time. Even today majority of the

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Speaker 1: energy is tied to fossil fuels. But the world is changing.

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Speaker 1: And in twenty fourteen, when Russia invaded Crimea and there

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Speaker 1: was panic over gas, you were pitching yourself to lead

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Speaker 1: this organization. What was the pitch that you made.

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Speaker 2: We were founded in nineteen seventy four. In fact, next

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Speaker 2: year is our fifty birthday. I thought IEA is a

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Speaker 2: wonderful organization. But there are two things missing. One of

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Speaker 2: them is IEEV was known an authoititative energy organization, but

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Speaker 2: organization of the rich men rich mass Energy Club. This

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Speaker 2: is one art to be changed. And the second is

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Speaker 2: I had pivotal role when it comes to the conventional

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Speaker 2: energy technologies. But I thought, given the critical importance of

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Speaker 2: climate change and the role of energy in causing climate change,

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Speaker 2: there is a neat IDEA to accelerate his efforts under

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Speaker 2: clean energy and the fight against climate change. So when

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Speaker 2: I apply to be the head of the IEA, I said,

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Speaker 2: there are two things I want to do if I

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Speaker 2: was elected, and one of them was to open the

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Speaker 2: doors of the IYEA to emerging world mainly Asia, but

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Speaker 2: not only Africa, Latin America and others. And the second

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Speaker 2: is to make the IDEA a hub for clean energy technologies.

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Speaker 2: So I am very happy that the member governments of

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Speaker 2: the IEA unanimously agreed and selected me as the head

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Speaker 2: of the IYEA in twenty fifteen.

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Speaker 1: Now you're coming up to the end of your second

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Speaker 1: term as the head of the IEA. In that period,

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Speaker 1: the agency has gone from being criticized for being too

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Speaker 1: slow to project the growth of renewables being championed by

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Speaker 1: climate activists for being the agency that says no new

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Speaker 1: fossil fuel infrastructure should be built if we are to

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Speaker 1: meet climate goals.

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Speaker 3: So we are always criticized.

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Speaker 2: Actually we were criticized being too slow, and we are

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Speaker 2: now criticizers being too fast. But I think the people

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Speaker 2: need the energy. We need fast and decisive leaders.

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Speaker 1: So what do you think gives ie the credibility to

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Speaker 1: have the kind of influence that it does on the

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Speaker 1: world of energy.

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Speaker 2: So we have expanded the number of experts working here substantially.

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Speaker 2: For example, when I took over the IEA, we were

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Speaker 2: about two hundred and ten people here and currently we

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Speaker 2: are about two hundred and fifty people more or less

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Speaker 2: with the same core budget. To be honest with you,

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Speaker 2: but the big portion of the growth came from the

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Speaker 2: clean energy, but cleenergy technologies, renewable energy efficiency. These are

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Speaker 2: the areas that we grew and we have gained a

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Speaker 2: very strong momentum in these areas. I was working with

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Speaker 2: one of the leaders of the energy industry the other

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Speaker 2: day and he was complaining with it. They are not

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Speaker 2: able to recruit young people, even though they give a

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Speaker 2: very good salaries, much better than the IDEA, because many

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Speaker 2: young people when they finish their university, they really looking

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Speaker 2: for a purpose, not only for money. And at the

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Speaker 2: IDEA we are overwhelmed with the interest from the young people,

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Speaker 2: and I am very happy that my Colaxia find the

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Speaker 2: purpose and they know that the work they are doing

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Speaker 2: has a real word impact.

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Speaker 3: Well, at least we are working towards that.

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Speaker 1: Now, we've seen a full scale invasion of Ukraine by

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Speaker 1: Russia and we've seen what impact that's had on Europe

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Speaker 1: as it tried to move away from Russian fossil fuels

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Speaker 1: at a very rapid base. That's led to decreasing the

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Speaker 1: amount of gas that's being burned and ramping up of renewables.

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Speaker 1: How do you think Europe can make the most of

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Speaker 1: the current moment to pursue its long term goals which

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Speaker 1: are tied to a clean energy agenda.

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Speaker 2: So we are twenty fourth of February last year Russia

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Speaker 2: invadio Ukraine and one of the things I am proud

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Speaker 2: of the idea is we are very nimble. Twenty fourth

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Speaker 2: of February was the invasion. First of March, one week later,

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Speaker 2: we came out with a ten point plan what Europe

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Speaker 2: should do in order to reduce the reliance on Russia,

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Speaker 2: but at the same time making sure that the measures

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Speaker 2: we are taking are not against our climate goals.

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Speaker 3: And some of the measures.

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Speaker 2: When I discussed if the government leaders, they were found

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Speaker 2: very radical. For example, we set in Europe we have

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Speaker 2: to bring the room temperature two degrees low. We have

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Speaker 2: to see a major increase of renewables as a result

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Speaker 2: of cutting the permitting and licensing time of these renewable installations.

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Speaker 2: Or we set two countries Belgium and Germany please consider

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Speaker 2: not to shut down your nuclear power plants extend for

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Speaker 2: some time. Those are all now implemented. What I see

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Speaker 2: when I look at Europe today one year later, I

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Speaker 2: think we have all the reasons to congregeate European decision makers.

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Speaker 2: I give a couple of numbers, as you know, actually

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Speaker 2: I am a man of numbers, so I make my

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Speaker 2: hands dirty with data every day. So first, Russia's oil

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Speaker 2: and gas revenues declined by forty percent.

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Speaker 3: This is very important.

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Speaker 2: The country that invaded and aggressed another country, their revenues

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Speaker 2: went down. Second, the share of gas in Europe before

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Speaker 2: the invasion was about forty percent coming from Russia, and

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Speaker 2: now the Russian gas in Europe is less than five percent.

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Speaker 2: Renewables installation Europe increased by forty percent, Heat pumps increased

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Speaker 2: by forty percent, and on top of that the cherry

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Speaker 2: and the cake. In my view, while fighting against this aggression,

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Speaker 2: European emissions declined by two point five percent. So you

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Speaker 2: were able to in Europe keep the lads on. You

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Speaker 2: were able to push the clean energy and at the

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Speaker 2: same time reduce the emissions. I think this success story.

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Speaker 2: But the game is not finished. This is the first

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Speaker 2: half of the match. The second half will be what

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Speaker 2: will happen the coming winter and the winters in front

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Speaker 2: of us.

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Speaker 1: There is still a narrative, especially in the energy industry,

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Speaker 1: that says much of the crisis that Europe faced was

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Speaker 1: because of a lack of investment in fossil fuels. But

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Speaker 1: you say that that is a mistaken idea, and you're.

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Speaker 2: Yes, you are completely right. Actually, I believe the lasting

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Speaker 2: solutions to energy of security goes through increase in the

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Speaker 2: share of clean and edge. In fact, one of the

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Speaker 2: reasons why we have seen such a big increase in

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Speaker 2: renewables in Europe. It is not driven by climate concerns meanly,

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Speaker 2: it is mainly driven by any ergy of security concerns. Today,

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Speaker 2: energy security is the most important driver of renewables around

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Speaker 2: the world, and I believe this will continue when we

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Speaker 2: look at fossil fuels first, and there's a lot of

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Speaker 2: the discutch in many countries. Shall we build a or

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Speaker 2: develop a new oil field, this will help us for

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Speaker 2: the Russian energy crisis. I think there are at least

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Speaker 2: three mistakes there. One, if you start the oil field today,

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Speaker 2: the first oil will come to you an average six

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Speaker 2: seven years later.

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Speaker 3: This is number one.

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Speaker 2: Number two, the electric cars are growing very very strongly,

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Speaker 2: very strongly, so I am not sure that in six

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Speaker 2: seven years of time the world will need edition oil

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Speaker 2: production growth. So this is the second mistake. The third

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Speaker 2: one is the of course, climate change. So I discussed

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Speaker 2: this issue all the time. I tell the companies who

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Speaker 2: push this idea, as you rightly mentioned the fossil fuel investments,

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Speaker 2: I said, I have no problem if an oil company

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Speaker 2: says I AM going to increase my production by three

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Speaker 2: million barteries per day, five millions price or this person.

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Speaker 3: This is their view.

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Speaker 2: They can do whatever they But my problem is if

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Speaker 2: a company says I AM going to increase my production

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Speaker 2: by three million buds per day five million bus per day,

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Speaker 2: and my company's strategy is in land with the party scores.

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Speaker 2: This is not true. This cannot even both of them

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Speaker 2: cannot oppen at the same time. I am sorry, but

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Speaker 2: they have to choose one of them, and I will

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Speaker 2: try to push those countries to choose one of them.

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Speaker 2: I hope they choose the good one.

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Speaker 1: Now, the world of energy and climate have been for

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Speaker 1: some time polarized. There has been a real need to

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Speaker 1: try and bridge the gap. The IA has performed an

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Speaker 1: important role to help make that happen. However, still you

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Speaker 1: get these examples which don't seem logical. Just to give

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Speaker 1: you one, Joe Biden, President of the US, is keen

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Speaker 1: on making sure that the US meets its climate goals,

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Speaker 1: worked on a big bill that was passed last year,

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Speaker 1: the Inflation Reduction Act. At the same time, they have

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Speaker 1: just approved a new eight billion dollar oil project in

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Speaker 1: Alaska that goes against the advice that is given that

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Speaker 1: no new oil and gas infrastructure is needed. Why is

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Speaker 1: it that you continue to see these seemingly illogical steps

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Speaker 1: taken by people who understand the science, who understand the importance.

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Speaker 2: So actually, if one of the ambitions that I have

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Speaker 2: as head of the IDEA is to make the energy

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Speaker 2: world and the climate world talk to each other and

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Speaker 2: find common ground. It is the reason I believe there

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Speaker 2: is a need to build a equal grant coalition, government's industry,

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Speaker 2: investors in jures who are sincerely I underland this sincerely

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Speaker 2: intend to address our climate challenge. I give you one example.

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Speaker 2: A few months ago I was in that was in

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Speaker 2: the morning I had meeting with a greater turn back

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Speaker 2: and in the afternoon I had a meeting with the

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Speaker 2: CEO of a mining company, and in the evening I

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Speaker 2: had a meeting with the prime minister of a European country.

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Speaker 2: So we need to bring them together. We cannot be

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Speaker 2: too selective here and only only if we can build

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Speaker 2: this grant coalition we can reach our climate course. So

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Speaker 2: this is our job, and the wind comes the Information

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Speaker 2: Induction Act. In my view, it is the single most

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Speaker 2: important climate action since partis twenty fifteen Agreement, and I

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Speaker 2: hope it will be implemented in the right way.

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Speaker 1: So in that context, how do you make sense of

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Speaker 1: the Biden administration approving an eight billion dollar project that

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Speaker 1: extracts oil for thirty years in Alaska.

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Speaker 2: So it is up to the uscal one to decide

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Speaker 2: how they're going to secure their energy supplies. But I

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Speaker 2: would tell you that if I have to look at

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Speaker 2: the US energy and climate policy, if I have to

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Speaker 2: single out wanting, it is the Inflation Reduction Act, which

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Speaker 2: is in my view, the single most important action since

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Speaker 2: Partis Agreement in twenty fifteen. As far as the climate

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Speaker 2: change is concerned, if countries take decisions which we believe

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Speaker 2: not consistent with each other, we try to pinpoint them.

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Speaker 1: After the break, three numbers you should remember and what

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Speaker 1: we can do to make emission speak sooner. In one

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Speaker 1: of our previous conversations, you had said that the IA's

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Speaker 1: strength comes from taking the right position and then having

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Speaker 1: the backbone supported by the numbers to hold that position.

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Speaker 1: If we had to talk about three numbers that matter

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Speaker 1: for the moment we are in, what would they be?

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Speaker 2: Tree is in fact too little. But the first number

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Speaker 2: I would say is eight hundred million. Today about eight

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Speaker 2: hundred million people have no access to electrics. This is

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Speaker 2: my biggest peroccupation, especially in subsan Africa. Every second person

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Speaker 2: have no access to electrics. This is number one. Number

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Speaker 2: two one point four one point four is today the

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Speaker 2: clean energy investments in the entire word is one point

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Speaker 2: four trillion dollar with avery one trillion fossil fuse, and

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Speaker 2: in order to have an orderly planet, this one point

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Speaker 2: four needs to go to four trillion twenty thirty, and

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Speaker 2: most of them needs to come from the developing countries.

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Speaker 2: This is the challenge. And the third one is the

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Speaker 2: fifty percent. What is this fifty percent? Even most conservative estimates,

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Speaker 2: in twenty thirty, every second car, fifty percent of all

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Speaker 2: the cars sold in China, Europe and the United States

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Speaker 2: will be an electric car. So this will change the

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Speaker 2: game significantly. So there are three numbers. Eight hundred million,

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Speaker 2: one point four trillion, and fifty percent.

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Speaker 1: Now, if you stick to the trillion dollar figure, there

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Speaker 1: as you say, countries will need four trillion dollars of

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Speaker 1: annual investments in clean energy to be able to meet

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Speaker 1: energy access and climate goals. What is the way in

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Speaker 1: which that amount of money could come through developing countries

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Speaker 1: and finance? What is an absolutely necessary transition?

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Speaker 2: You asked me choose three numbers. If you ask me

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Speaker 2: to choose one term, which is for me very important,

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Speaker 2: I would say the fault line today, the fault line

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Speaker 2: of our fight against climate change is how they will

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Speaker 2: financetic clean edergy investment developing countries First of all, the

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Speaker 2: climate change problem we have today is not only the

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Speaker 2: result of the emissions of today, but it's the concentration

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Speaker 2: of the carbon atmosphere since one hundred years and eighty

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Speaker 2: percent of these emissions came from the advanced economies. Today

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Speaker 2: they were responsible to clean up. So this is number one.

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Speaker 2: Number two, I think there is a huge potential of

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Speaker 2: clean energy in the developing countries, much more than the

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Speaker 2: advanced economies. But the money, the capital and these projects

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Speaker 2: don't meet each other because of the risks involved. So

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Speaker 2: therefore there is a role for the intentional financial institutions

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Speaker 2: and they, in my view, they failed, and I hope

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Speaker 2: that they will resume the role of organizations which look

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Speaker 2: after the sustainability of the global economy and put the

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Speaker 2: clean energy transition top of the agenda. And I see

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Speaker 2: these two things. The responsible for the advanced rich countries

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Speaker 2: and the growing role of the MDBs is key in

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Speaker 2: order to address fault line issue, namely exciting clean energy

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Speaker 2: investment developing countries.

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Speaker 1: One other way in which we can accelerate the clean

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Speaker 1: energy transition and developing countries is through transferring lessons learned

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Speaker 1: by one country to another. One of the chapters in

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Speaker 1: my book is about how India developed its solar industry

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Speaker 1: and how you have worked with the Indian government to

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Speaker 1: figure out the lessons from the growth of solar and

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Speaker 1: help other countries to deploy some of those examples. Can

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Speaker 1: you give me more examples of where what the IEA

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Speaker 1: does beyond publishing reports about where the world is going

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Speaker 1: on a more granular level to transfer lessons from one

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Speaker 1: country to another.

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Speaker 2: In energy policy, if there are policies, measures, standards and

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Speaker 2: norms works in one country, it would with some calibration,

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Speaker 2: it will work in another country. We say in Turkish

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Speaker 2: you don't need to hit your head on the world

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Speaker 2: to understand and it is hard. So this day is

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Speaker 2: the experience in front of you. So we are sharing

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Speaker 2: experience of country A with country B and giving them advice.

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Speaker 2: One example efficiency. So what we are doing and is

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Speaker 2: just for an example around the world telling the collics.

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Speaker 2: How are you going to draft the efficiency standards for refrigerators?

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Speaker 2: This is very important and this is the key issue

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Speaker 2: we work with Indian government and how you put the

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Speaker 2: efficiency standards for the air conditions? A top reason for

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Speaker 2: the actorsy demand growth. So we are providing these experiences,

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Speaker 2: sharing the experiences not only from the advanced economies to

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Speaker 2: developing countries, but within the developing countries. For example, India

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Speaker 2: is an excellent example of led lighting. We have provided

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Speaker 2: this experience to Indonesia, and Indonesia is using some of

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Speaker 2: the elements of the ad lighting success story at home.

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Speaker 2: So this is our job to share the experience and

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Speaker 2: good ones and also a bad one to learn from

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Speaker 2: each other.

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Speaker 1: You've called what happened last year the first global energy crisis,

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Speaker 1: which would feel a little bit odd given we've had

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Speaker 1: energy crisis in the past. Why is this the first

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Speaker 1: global energy crisis and what will trigger the next one?

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Speaker 2: You're completed at We hit crisis in the past seventies

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Speaker 2: and eighties, but they were only focused on oil, and

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Speaker 2: now we have oil, natural gas, even in the coal markets.

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Speaker 3: The reason is very simple.

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Speaker 2: Russia was the number one energy exporter of the world,

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Speaker 2: number one oil exporter, number one nature gas exporter, big

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Speaker 2: play in the coal markets, uranium, electors and everything, and

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Speaker 2: we have seen the effects of this not only in

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Speaker 2: Europe but across the world. Is a result of price effects. Now,

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Speaker 2: what could be another crisis? There are many candidates for that, unfortunately.

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Speaker 2: But what I see a risk today is we just

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Speaker 2: discussed the clean energy is growing. They don't need phossil fuse.

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Speaker 2: They need other things such as critical minners, such as

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Speaker 2: the manufacturing of the clean ergy technologies. And when I

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Speaker 2: look at the picture today, there is also a concentration

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Speaker 2: here like we heat for oil, like we haate in

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Speaker 2: natural gas. For example, more than eighty percent of the

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Speaker 2: PV is in China. And forget the eighty percent, when

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Speaker 2: you look at to all the modules of the PV manufacturing,

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Speaker 2: from eight to ninety percent it is in China, and

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Speaker 2: it is maybe even one single province and two major

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Speaker 2: industry facilities. If there's a fire there, the entire supply

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Speaker 2: chain will be disrupted. So it is not against China

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Speaker 2: or anything, but relies on one single country, one single company,

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Speaker 2: one single trade route is always risky.

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Speaker 3: In my view.

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Speaker 2: The magic world here is a diversification. We have to

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Speaker 2: diversify this and to have a clean and secure energy future,

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Speaker 2: relies in many countries around what follows the footsteps of

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Speaker 2: China and make sure that they have enough access to

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Speaker 2: critical miners and the manufacturing of the clean energy technologies.

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Speaker 1: Another outcome of the energy crisis has been record profits

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Speaker 1: for fossil fuel companies. Saudi Aramco posted a record profit

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Speaker 1: of one hundred and sixty billion dollars. Just to put

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Speaker 1: that in context, Apple had a profit of about twenty

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Speaker 1: five billion dollars. At the same time, the world needs

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Speaker 1: to invest a lot more money in clean energy. How

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Speaker 1: do you find a way to move vast profits in

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Speaker 1: fossil fuels toward encouraging those companies which have to be

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Speaker 1: a part of the transition to invest in clean energy?

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Speaker 3: Akshat.

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Speaker 2: You look every year how much profits the oil and

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Speaker 2: gas companies make on average. Until last year they were

441
00:26:53,880 --> 00:26:57,080
Speaker 2: making about one point four one point five trillion dollar

442
00:26:57,560 --> 00:27:01,359
Speaker 2: and last year their profits in care is to four

443
00:27:01,440 --> 00:27:05,119
Speaker 2: trillion dollars, more than double. So I very much hope

444
00:27:05,320 --> 00:27:11,359
Speaker 2: these companies would use this a huge amount of I

445
00:27:11,480 --> 00:27:16,520
Speaker 2: call that windfall profit in order to accelit their clean

446
00:27:16,840 --> 00:27:19,800
Speaker 2: energy efforts. It can be hydrogen, it can be carbon

447
00:27:19,880 --> 00:27:23,919
Speaker 2: capture storage, it can be offshore, with many options. But

448
00:27:25,320 --> 00:27:29,080
Speaker 2: what I see what is happening is not necessarily in

449
00:27:29,119 --> 00:27:33,080
Speaker 2: line with my hopes and expectations. Some of them goes

450
00:27:33,240 --> 00:27:38,600
Speaker 2: back to the shareholders, others go to the phossil fuel investments.

451
00:27:38,800 --> 00:27:40,480
Speaker 3: I very much hope.

452
00:27:40,440 --> 00:27:43,439
Speaker 2: That they would do what they say, because all of

453
00:27:43,440 --> 00:27:45,959
Speaker 2: these companies are saying that the clean energy is very

454
00:27:45,960 --> 00:27:50,159
Speaker 2: important for that and they have the abilities, engineering skills,

455
00:27:50,600 --> 00:27:54,159
Speaker 2: the management of running huge projects, and a lot of

456
00:27:54,320 --> 00:27:59,359
Speaker 2: experience in order to exit the clean energy technology deployment.

457
00:28:00,160 --> 00:28:03,359
Speaker 2: If you ask me whether or not I see acceleration that,

458
00:28:04,240 --> 00:28:06,320
Speaker 2: my answer would be not necessarily.

459
00:28:06,840 --> 00:28:11,480
Speaker 1: You're a rare person running an intergovernmental organization. You have

460
00:28:11,520 --> 00:28:14,920
Speaker 1: a PhD in economics, You have not run an election

461
00:28:15,400 --> 00:28:19,879
Speaker 1: public election. You are a technocrat. Most intergovernmental organizations are

462
00:28:19,960 --> 00:28:23,760
Speaker 1: run by politicians. What are the advantages of being a

463
00:28:23,760 --> 00:28:26,719
Speaker 1: technocrat running an intergovernmental organization?

464
00:28:26,880 --> 00:28:29,680
Speaker 3: So I never run for office. I did once.

465
00:28:29,840 --> 00:28:33,159
Speaker 2: It was when I was nine years old, to be

466
00:28:33,200 --> 00:28:37,360
Speaker 2: the represent of the class of the students, and I

467
00:28:37,400 --> 00:28:38,600
Speaker 2: lost it to somebody.

468
00:28:38,320 --> 00:28:39,680
Speaker 1: Else and then you said never again.

469
00:28:39,880 --> 00:28:42,000
Speaker 3: So no, I was second. So I was the vice

470
00:28:42,360 --> 00:28:43,680
Speaker 3: the representat of the class.

471
00:28:43,800 --> 00:28:46,880
Speaker 2: Politics is at the heart of the energy, but I

472
00:28:46,920 --> 00:28:50,280
Speaker 2: didn't want to be part of a political party. And

473
00:28:50,400 --> 00:28:54,200
Speaker 2: you are right before me. There were distinguished ia ages

474
00:28:54,240 --> 00:28:58,880
Speaker 2: of directors. My predecessor, for example, was the former Minister

475
00:28:58,880 --> 00:29:02,560
Speaker 2: of Economy of Netherlands, I came within the ranks. The

476
00:29:02,680 --> 00:29:06,200
Speaker 2: advantage is you have a command of the issues, the

477
00:29:07,000 --> 00:29:09,680
Speaker 2: energy issues. You know the numbers, and I always say

478
00:29:09,760 --> 00:29:11,160
Speaker 2: data always wins.

479
00:29:11,360 --> 00:29:14,320
Speaker 1: When you were elected to be the head of the IA,

480
00:29:14,840 --> 00:29:19,280
Speaker 1: the first speeches you gave were in Beijing and New Delhi. Beijing.

481
00:29:19,360 --> 00:29:21,400
Speaker 1: If we look at it, yes, it's emissions are still

482
00:29:21,480 --> 00:29:24,440
Speaker 1: rising and they do have to peak sooner. But they

483
00:29:24,480 --> 00:29:29,400
Speaker 1: have taken green technologies and run with it. All the

484
00:29:29,440 --> 00:29:33,560
Speaker 1: major technologies that we know, solar panels, winterbines, batteries, electric cars,

485
00:29:33,720 --> 00:29:39,240
Speaker 1: now hydrogen. All China is leading the world on the

486
00:29:39,280 --> 00:29:42,360
Speaker 1: same can't be said about India. When do you think

487
00:29:42,440 --> 00:29:45,600
Speaker 1: India will be able to grab onto its potential for

488
00:29:45,720 --> 00:29:49,360
Speaker 1: clean energy, both for development but also for climate targets.

489
00:29:49,840 --> 00:29:53,440
Speaker 2: I think you made your homework very well. I should

490
00:29:53,480 --> 00:29:57,440
Speaker 2: congreguate you for that. In order to underscore the vision

491
00:29:57,600 --> 00:30:01,440
Speaker 2: I put forward name opening the Doors of the Emerging World.

492
00:30:02,000 --> 00:30:04,640
Speaker 2: The first week after I became the head of the IEA,

493
00:30:04,760 --> 00:30:07,640
Speaker 2: I gave my first speech in Beijing, followed by a

494
00:30:07,680 --> 00:30:11,280
Speaker 2: new daily. The reason is that to show the world

495
00:30:11,560 --> 00:30:15,680
Speaker 2: and these two important players in the global energy scene

496
00:30:16,080 --> 00:30:18,000
Speaker 2: that we want to work with them. We want to

497
00:30:18,080 --> 00:30:20,600
Speaker 2: make sure that the energy is secure but at the

498
00:30:20,640 --> 00:30:25,280
Speaker 2: same time clean. China is the undisputable leader of clean

499
00:30:25,440 --> 00:30:29,160
Speaker 2: energy around the world today. But I am much more

500
00:30:29,280 --> 00:30:33,760
Speaker 2: optimistic about India than many others. People are too much

501
00:30:33,800 --> 00:30:37,240
Speaker 2: focused on the cold story in India. This is a

502
00:30:37,240 --> 00:30:41,560
Speaker 2: real story, definitely, but look at what is happening with

503
00:30:41,680 --> 00:30:44,520
Speaker 2: the solar It is a huge, huge success story. And

504
00:30:44,600 --> 00:30:46,640
Speaker 2: if I had time, and if I was a journalist

505
00:30:46,720 --> 00:30:49,800
Speaker 2: or a researcher, I would make a book or an

506
00:30:49,920 --> 00:30:54,040
Speaker 2: essay and the India Solar Revolution and there it will

507
00:30:54,080 --> 00:30:57,960
Speaker 2: be a inspiration for many countries, including those in Africa.

508
00:30:58,120 --> 00:30:58,560
Speaker 3: Very soon.

509
00:30:59,280 --> 00:31:02,240
Speaker 2: With India, I am expecting and it is also based

510
00:31:02,240 --> 00:31:05,560
Speaker 2: on my meeting with Prime Minister Moody. India will make

511
00:31:05,720 --> 00:31:08,760
Speaker 2: a lot of in laws in the clean energy technology

512
00:31:08,880 --> 00:31:13,720
Speaker 2: manufacturing as well, because India doesn't want to build the

513
00:31:13,800 --> 00:31:17,840
Speaker 2: solar panels which they input from other countries and want

514
00:31:17,920 --> 00:31:21,400
Speaker 2: to be independent die which is excellent and it helps

515
00:31:21,440 --> 00:31:24,080
Speaker 2: to the point I try to make the diversification of

516
00:31:24,120 --> 00:31:28,240
Speaker 2: the sources. I'm very hopeful about India because India, when

517
00:31:28,280 --> 00:31:31,360
Speaker 2: you look at the Indian energy history in the last

518
00:31:31,360 --> 00:31:35,320
Speaker 2: few years, there are many impressive achievements which are not

519
00:31:35,520 --> 00:31:39,560
Speaker 2: very much hurt around the world, providing access to electricity

520
00:31:39,840 --> 00:31:42,840
Speaker 2: almost five hundred million people in a very short period

521
00:31:42,880 --> 00:31:46,280
Speaker 2: of time population of Europe. There is a program that

522
00:31:46,440 --> 00:31:48,840
Speaker 2: is not very much known in the most of the

523
00:31:48,840 --> 00:31:54,360
Speaker 2: world called Uzhuala program in Indian. Many countries, women and

524
00:31:54,520 --> 00:31:59,120
Speaker 2: children die prematurely because of the desperate diseases because of

525
00:31:59,160 --> 00:32:04,720
Speaker 2: the practices using wood, agricultural waste, animal waste, and in

526
00:32:04,800 --> 00:32:07,200
Speaker 2: Asia it is one of the top three reasons for

527
00:32:07,280 --> 00:32:11,880
Speaker 2: premature death. So Ushuala program gave cleanly nurgy solutions to

528
00:32:11,920 --> 00:32:15,000
Speaker 2: the women and children. This is the second one. I

529
00:32:15,040 --> 00:32:19,960
Speaker 2: expect that India will be a major driver of clean energy,

530
00:32:20,440 --> 00:32:21,800
Speaker 2: similar with China.

531
00:32:21,960 --> 00:32:24,840
Speaker 1: Europe did cut its emissions by two point five twenty

532
00:32:24,880 --> 00:32:27,920
Speaker 1: twenty two, but the world still hit a new peak

533
00:32:28,240 --> 00:32:31,880
Speaker 1: of emissions. According to your own data, when do you

534
00:32:31,960 --> 00:32:36,240
Speaker 1: see global emissions speaking and how can we get there faster?

535
00:32:36,480 --> 00:32:41,840
Speaker 2: So you're right, our data shows that the last year

536
00:32:41,920 --> 00:32:46,880
Speaker 2: global emissions did increase. But if we remember the discussions

537
00:32:47,000 --> 00:32:51,560
Speaker 2: beginning of the energy crisis, there was a major concern

538
00:32:51,680 --> 00:32:55,800
Speaker 2: that we will see run away emissions, big growth. Why

539
00:32:55,880 --> 00:32:59,680
Speaker 2: the growth was so subdued. If I may say so,

540
00:32:59,760 --> 00:33:04,520
Speaker 2: it is because of the unprecedented growth of clean energy.

541
00:33:05,040 --> 00:33:08,040
Speaker 2: If this growth didn't happen, the emission increases will be

542
00:33:08,080 --> 00:33:12,040
Speaker 2: three times higher. And I believe when we look back

543
00:33:12,600 --> 00:33:15,520
Speaker 2: ten years from now to twenty twenty two, we will

544
00:33:15,560 --> 00:33:19,160
Speaker 2: see that it was a major milestone in the history

545
00:33:19,200 --> 00:33:22,800
Speaker 2: of energy where we see a turbo charging of clean

546
00:33:23,000 --> 00:33:28,600
Speaker 2: energy transitions mainly driven by energy security and climate change concerns.

547
00:33:28,840 --> 00:33:32,960
Speaker 2: When do we peak? If we are committed to one

548
00:33:32,960 --> 00:33:36,520
Speaker 2: point five degree target, which I is, we here to

549
00:33:36,560 --> 00:33:40,920
Speaker 2: see the emissions peak around twenty twenty five. And when

550
00:33:40,920 --> 00:33:43,280
Speaker 2: I look at all the countries around the world, the

551
00:33:43,320 --> 00:33:47,680
Speaker 2: most important uncertainty here is China. Chinese is the single

552
00:33:47,880 --> 00:33:51,480
Speaker 2: largest emitter of the world. China is saying the official

553
00:33:51,560 --> 00:33:55,920
Speaker 2: statement they want their emissions to peak before twenty thirty.

554
00:33:56,440 --> 00:33:59,960
Speaker 2: But when I look at the Chinese numbers, my expectation

555
00:34:00,200 --> 00:34:03,280
Speaker 2: is Chinese peak will be before two anti thirty and

556
00:34:03,320 --> 00:34:07,760
Speaker 2: it will help the global emissions speak. But this wouldn't

557
00:34:07,800 --> 00:34:11,200
Speaker 2: be enough in my view to be in line with

558
00:34:11,360 --> 00:34:14,879
Speaker 2: the one point five degree target, but will bring us

559
00:34:14,960 --> 00:34:15,680
Speaker 2: closer to that.

560
00:34:17,560 --> 00:34:19,080
Speaker 1: Thank you so much for this conversation.

561
00:34:19,360 --> 00:34:20,759
Speaker 3: Thank you very much. Thank you.

562
00:34:25,280 --> 00:34:28,080
Speaker 1: I've talked to Fathi several times over the past few years,

563
00:34:28,200 --> 00:34:30,760
Speaker 1: and when I asked him what he wants his legacy

564
00:34:30,800 --> 00:34:33,520
Speaker 1: to be, he said he wanted the IA to address

565
00:34:33,560 --> 00:34:37,480
Speaker 1: the two biggest challenges of this century, climate change and

566
00:34:37,640 --> 00:34:41,279
Speaker 1: access to energy for all. Both are issues that will

567
00:34:41,320 --> 00:34:44,280
Speaker 1: take decades to solve, but the changes that the IA

568
00:34:44,360 --> 00:34:49,160
Speaker 1: has made shows how international organizations can reorient themselves for

569
00:34:49,239 --> 00:34:52,600
Speaker 1: the climate era. The research for this episode is based

570
00:34:52,640 --> 00:34:55,480
Speaker 1: on work I did for my book Climate Capitalism that

571
00:34:55,560 --> 00:34:58,239
Speaker 1: will be published later this year. I hope you'll give

572
00:34:58,239 --> 00:35:01,640
Speaker 1: it a read when it's out. Thanks for listening to Zero.

573
00:35:02,120 --> 00:35:04,560
Speaker 1: If you liked this episode, please take a moment to

574
00:35:04,680 --> 00:35:07,719
Speaker 1: rate and review the show on Apple Podcasts or Spotify,

575
00:35:08,600 --> 00:35:10,400
Speaker 1: send it to a friend, or share it with your

576
00:35:10,440 --> 00:35:14,239
Speaker 1: favorite patisier. If you've got a suggestion for guests, or

577
00:35:14,280 --> 00:35:16,560
Speaker 1: topics or something you just want us to look into,

578
00:35:16,960 --> 00:35:19,800
Speaker 1: get in touch at Zero pod at Bloomberg dot Net.

579
00:35:20,640 --> 00:35:24,400
Speaker 1: Zero's producer is Oscar Boyd and senior producer is Christine Risco.

580
00:35:25,080 --> 00:35:28,920
Speaker 1: Our theme music is composed by Wonderly Special thanks to

581
00:35:29,000 --> 00:35:34,040
Speaker 1: Kira Bindram, Eric Rosston and Will Mathis. I'm Akshatrati back

582
00:35:34,160 --> 00:35:50,560
Speaker 1: next week.

583
00:35:43,320 --> 00:35:47,560
Speaker 2: When you partly shit. How long would it be so

584
00:35:47,800 --> 00:35:55,120
Speaker 2: people have patience to really, I wouldn't usen myself, which

585
00:35:55,120 --> 00:35:55,799
Speaker 2: is amazing.

586
00:35:55,960 --> 00:35:58,680
Speaker 3: So this is Yeah,