1 00:00:04,280 --> 00:00:08,080 Speaker 1: Welcome to odd Lots. It's Monday, November three. I'm Tracy 2 00:00:08,119 --> 00:00:12,200 Speaker 1: Allaway and I'm Joe. Joe. I've got a question for you. 3 00:00:12,680 --> 00:00:16,599 Speaker 1: What were you doing to make money in the summer 4 00:00:16,640 --> 00:00:19,479 Speaker 1: of nine was the best summer because I think I 5 00:00:19,560 --> 00:00:22,279 Speaker 1: made about two thousand dollars from just a summer job 6 00:00:22,320 --> 00:00:25,120 Speaker 1: that I had. But then I put that all into 7 00:00:25,120 --> 00:00:28,480 Speaker 1: stocks because it was the Internet bubble, and I basically 8 00:00:28,520 --> 00:00:32,960 Speaker 1: paid for two years of college thanks to essentially what 9 00:00:33,040 --> 00:00:35,280 Speaker 1: I did that summer, So that's amazing. It was. It 10 00:00:35,320 --> 00:00:38,080 Speaker 1: was a good time. Well, I was making money to 11 00:00:38,440 --> 00:00:40,680 Speaker 1: a little differently. I was still in middle school. I 12 00:00:40,720 --> 00:00:44,519 Speaker 1: was going to garage sales and selling old toys and 13 00:00:44,600 --> 00:00:47,120 Speaker 1: one of the things I sold was a tie dyed 14 00:00:47,479 --> 00:00:51,560 Speaker 1: beanie baby lizard. I sold it for two hundred dollars 15 00:00:52,040 --> 00:00:54,440 Speaker 1: to a forty year old man, and at the time, 16 00:00:54,680 --> 00:00:56,560 Speaker 1: me as an eleven year old, I thought this was 17 00:00:56,600 --> 00:00:58,880 Speaker 1: amazing money and I was rolling in it. That is 18 00:00:58,920 --> 00:01:02,240 Speaker 1: amazing money object for any age selling a stuffed animal 19 00:01:02,280 --> 00:01:05,520 Speaker 1: for two dollars, right, So why are we talking about 20 00:01:05,600 --> 00:01:09,000 Speaker 1: this today? We're going to delve into what can drive 21 00:01:09,240 --> 00:01:13,959 Speaker 1: seemingly rational people to spend hundreds sometimes thousands of dollars 22 00:01:14,000 --> 00:01:16,640 Speaker 1: on stuffed animals. We're going to talk about the beanie 23 00:01:16,680 --> 00:01:18,959 Speaker 1: baby bubble, and we're going to talk about something more 24 00:01:19,000 --> 00:01:21,160 Speaker 1: than that. We're going to talk about bubbles in general, 25 00:01:21,240 --> 00:01:26,399 Speaker 1: the Internet bubble, and the psychology behind speculative mania. So 26 00:01:26,840 --> 00:01:30,120 Speaker 1: here with us today is Zach Bissonett. He's the author 27 00:01:30,200 --> 00:01:33,240 Speaker 1: of The Great Beanie Baby Bubble, Mass Delusion, and the 28 00:01:33,319 --> 00:01:35,840 Speaker 1: Dark Side of Cute. It's a book that came out 29 00:01:35,840 --> 00:01:38,240 Speaker 1: earlier this year and I just happened to finish it 30 00:01:38,319 --> 00:01:41,240 Speaker 1: this morning. Zach, thanks for joining us. So why did 31 00:01:41,240 --> 00:01:45,080 Speaker 1: you write a book about beanie babies animals? I like you. 32 00:01:45,240 --> 00:01:47,360 Speaker 1: I I was in middle school when the beanie baby 33 00:01:47,360 --> 00:01:49,360 Speaker 1: craze hit, and I was kind of a nerd, and 34 00:01:49,400 --> 00:01:51,560 Speaker 1: I was into like old books and antiques and that 35 00:01:51,680 --> 00:01:53,240 Speaker 1: kind of thing. And every weekend I would go to 36 00:01:53,280 --> 00:01:55,880 Speaker 1: this flea market on Cape Cob with my mother, and 37 00:01:55,920 --> 00:01:58,080 Speaker 1: we had never heard of beanie babies. And then all 38 00:01:58,080 --> 00:02:00,880 Speaker 1: of a sudden, out of nowhere, that flea market was 39 00:02:00,920 --> 00:02:04,280 Speaker 1: like beanie baby dealers, and they were wearing like Fannie 40 00:02:04,280 --> 00:02:08,000 Speaker 1: packs and visors and talking just really really excitedly about 41 00:02:08,040 --> 00:02:09,800 Speaker 1: how much they were going up in value and how 42 00:02:09,840 --> 00:02:12,440 Speaker 1: this one they just paid five dollars for was now 43 00:02:12,480 --> 00:02:14,840 Speaker 1: worth forty and they're not going to sell it this 44 00:02:14,840 --> 00:02:18,280 Speaker 1: week because next week it'll be worth fifty. And that 45 00:02:18,400 --> 00:02:20,480 Speaker 1: was like that for about two years, and then all 46 00:02:20,520 --> 00:02:22,480 Speaker 1: of a sudden it was gone and no one ever 47 00:02:22,480 --> 00:02:24,680 Speaker 1: talked about it again. I just I just want to say, uh, 48 00:02:25,040 --> 00:02:28,680 Speaker 1: during those same years that my mother was dating a 49 00:02:28,680 --> 00:02:30,960 Speaker 1: guy who was an antique dealer, and so I also 50 00:02:31,040 --> 00:02:33,440 Speaker 1: went to a lot of flea markets in New England 51 00:02:33,520 --> 00:02:35,720 Speaker 1: and I actually saw all the exact same thing where 52 00:02:35,720 --> 00:02:38,080 Speaker 1: suddenly there were these flea markets where that used to 53 00:02:38,120 --> 00:02:40,600 Speaker 1: be people bringing out their old stuff from their barns 54 00:02:40,639 --> 00:02:42,560 Speaker 1: and then it's just people of stuff down and used 55 00:02:42,600 --> 00:02:46,680 Speaker 1: to be traditionalist antique dealers hated it. Yeah, there was 56 00:02:46,720 --> 00:02:48,720 Speaker 1: there was one guy I talked to who who he 57 00:02:48,800 --> 00:02:51,120 Speaker 1: was so proud of this. He was a traditionalist antique 58 00:02:51,160 --> 00:02:54,359 Speaker 1: dealer who had just railed against beanie babies. He would 59 00:02:54,400 --> 00:02:56,640 Speaker 1: go on CNN. I would say, I'm not in kidding. 60 00:02:56,680 --> 00:02:59,400 Speaker 1: CNN would have these like debates between this guy who 61 00:02:59,440 --> 00:03:03,240 Speaker 1: they called the beanie Meanie and the beanie baby experts 62 00:03:03,280 --> 00:03:05,840 Speaker 1: who were making millions of dollars selling one of them 63 00:03:05,880 --> 00:03:08,320 Speaker 1: sold a million copies a month of a beanie baby 64 00:03:08,360 --> 00:03:10,840 Speaker 1: magazine that she was publishing, and they would have these 65 00:03:10,880 --> 00:03:13,440 Speaker 1: debates in this and this. A group of antique dealers 66 00:03:13,440 --> 00:03:17,080 Speaker 1: in Indiana gave him a crucified skunk beanie baby with 67 00:03:17,120 --> 00:03:20,120 Speaker 1: a certificate thanking him for being a traditionalist who stood 68 00:03:20,200 --> 00:03:23,600 Speaker 1: up for traditional antiques. So this is the amazing thing. 69 00:03:23,680 --> 00:03:26,760 Speaker 1: Walk us through how the beanie baby bubble came into 70 00:03:26,800 --> 00:03:30,000 Speaker 1: existence and how we at one day actually got to 71 00:03:30,040 --> 00:03:32,760 Speaker 1: the point where people were debating the value of stuffed 72 00:03:32,800 --> 00:03:35,240 Speaker 1: animals on CNN. So it starts out with this this 73 00:03:35,440 --> 00:03:39,280 Speaker 1: very sort of eccentric toymaker named Tie Warner, who dropped 74 00:03:39,280 --> 00:03:42,040 Speaker 1: out of Kalamazoo College, tried to become an actor, failed 75 00:03:42,040 --> 00:03:45,440 Speaker 1: at that, then became a toy salesman, was wildly successful 76 00:03:45,440 --> 00:03:46,920 Speaker 1: with that, but then he got fired from that and 77 00:03:46,920 --> 00:03:50,040 Speaker 1: decided to start his own stuffed animal company. And he 78 00:03:50,120 --> 00:03:54,080 Speaker 1: started to create these beanie babies initially because he thought 79 00:03:54,160 --> 00:03:56,880 Speaker 1: at a five dollar price point they would be irresistible 80 00:03:56,960 --> 00:03:58,640 Speaker 1: and that it would help him the sort of a 81 00:03:58,640 --> 00:04:01,360 Speaker 1: foot in the door with large accounts, and that he 82 00:04:01,400 --> 00:04:04,400 Speaker 1: would then be able to kind of upsell bigger stores 83 00:04:04,880 --> 00:04:08,880 Speaker 1: on selling his larger stuffed animal line, and it didn't 84 00:04:08,880 --> 00:04:12,320 Speaker 1: work at all. I remember talking to talking to to 85 00:04:12,440 --> 00:04:15,080 Speaker 1: the sales reps for Tye who remember just there was 86 00:04:15,120 --> 00:04:17,480 Speaker 1: no interest in these beaning babies. People worried they were cheap, 87 00:04:17,560 --> 00:04:19,720 Speaker 1: they thought they looked cheap. They worried people would buy 88 00:04:19,720 --> 00:04:22,440 Speaker 1: the beanie babies instead of a more expensive product. He 89 00:04:22,560 --> 00:04:24,840 Speaker 1: was just not getting any interest in them. But Ty Warner, 90 00:04:24,839 --> 00:04:27,520 Speaker 1: the guy created them, really really believed in this product. 91 00:04:27,560 --> 00:04:31,560 Speaker 1: And he combined that belief with an extremely sort of eccentric, 92 00:04:31,680 --> 00:04:34,960 Speaker 1: obsessive approach to the product and the people who had 93 00:04:35,120 --> 00:04:36,520 Speaker 1: who had worked with him, which at the beginning was 94 00:04:36,560 --> 00:04:38,440 Speaker 1: just his girlfriend. But but she remembered when I when 95 00:04:38,440 --> 00:04:41,440 Speaker 1: I talked with her, he would keep her up until 96 00:04:41,480 --> 00:04:44,760 Speaker 1: like four in the morning debating one color of the 97 00:04:44,839 --> 00:04:47,360 Speaker 1: ribbon on a bear should be. And then she'd think 98 00:04:47,400 --> 00:04:50,200 Speaker 1: they would finally be done debating the color, and he 99 00:04:50,240 --> 00:04:52,080 Speaker 1: would say, well what if it was tied this way 100 00:04:52,120 --> 00:04:54,240 Speaker 1: instead of the other way, And then they would have 101 00:04:54,279 --> 00:04:56,960 Speaker 1: to go back through the iterations of different colors again 102 00:04:57,000 --> 00:04:59,680 Speaker 1: for hours. So he had this really really obsessive approach 103 00:04:59,720 --> 00:05:02,960 Speaker 1: to the product. This is how the retirement came into 104 00:05:03,000 --> 00:05:06,560 Speaker 1: being right precisely. So sometimes he would come out with 105 00:05:06,560 --> 00:05:09,719 Speaker 1: a product and then a few months after he chipped 106 00:05:09,760 --> 00:05:11,800 Speaker 1: a few thousand of them, he would like wake up 107 00:05:11,800 --> 00:05:14,479 Speaker 1: in the middle of the night basically and decide that 108 00:05:14,520 --> 00:05:17,600 Speaker 1: it should be a different color. So like one of 109 00:05:17,720 --> 00:05:20,479 Speaker 1: his first beanie babies, not not one of the very first, 110 00:05:20,480 --> 00:05:22,080 Speaker 1: but one of the one of the first was Peanut 111 00:05:22,160 --> 00:05:25,720 Speaker 1: the Elephant, who was originally a royal blue color. And 112 00:05:25,760 --> 00:05:27,680 Speaker 1: then after a few months of that, I think he 113 00:05:27,800 --> 00:05:31,159 Speaker 1: chipped I think, like I can't remember the fourteen hundred 114 00:05:31,240 --> 00:05:33,400 Speaker 1: or so of the of this beanie baby, and he 115 00:05:33,480 --> 00:05:36,800 Speaker 1: decided it shouldn't be royal blue, it should be baby blue. 116 00:05:37,040 --> 00:05:39,400 Speaker 1: And so the fact that they would get retired and 117 00:05:39,480 --> 00:05:41,599 Speaker 1: never made again, there were never more than that, that's 118 00:05:41,600 --> 00:05:45,200 Speaker 1: how they became collectible that people would see is going 119 00:05:45,279 --> 00:05:49,080 Speaker 1: up in value entirely accidentally. So because this is happening 120 00:05:49,080 --> 00:05:51,719 Speaker 1: before anyone cares about these his annual sales are like 121 00:05:51,800 --> 00:05:54,000 Speaker 1: four million dollars a year at this point, mostly not 122 00:05:54,080 --> 00:05:56,960 Speaker 1: from beanie babies. No one cares about beanie babies. Then 123 00:05:57,000 --> 00:06:00,480 Speaker 1: all of a sudden, this small group of people suburban 124 00:06:00,560 --> 00:06:04,279 Speaker 1: Chicago who lived on one cul de Sac started collecting 125 00:06:04,279 --> 00:06:06,400 Speaker 1: beanie babies. They saw them in stores because they were 126 00:06:06,400 --> 00:06:08,400 Speaker 1: near where Ty was headquartered, so that he had a 127 00:06:08,400 --> 00:06:10,560 Speaker 1: big presence in stores there. And they decided they liked 128 00:06:10,640 --> 00:06:13,800 Speaker 1: these beanie babies and that they wanted to assemble complete 129 00:06:13,839 --> 00:06:16,960 Speaker 1: collections for their kids. And they became very obsessive. These 130 00:06:16,960 --> 00:06:19,080 Speaker 1: were soccer mons. They came very very obsessive with trying 131 00:06:19,120 --> 00:06:22,440 Speaker 1: to assemble complete collections, and so they would call stores 132 00:06:22,480 --> 00:06:25,080 Speaker 1: and other towns to ask them what beanie babies they had, 133 00:06:25,640 --> 00:06:28,240 Speaker 1: and then they remembered this. They would realize that there 134 00:06:28,279 --> 00:06:30,880 Speaker 1: would be like these weird variations and these were the 135 00:06:30,880 --> 00:06:33,360 Speaker 1: ones that he had retired, just changed the design because 136 00:06:33,360 --> 00:06:35,880 Speaker 1: he took a few thousand and then changed entirely accidentally. 137 00:06:36,320 --> 00:06:39,720 Speaker 1: And they started paying each other more for these kind 138 00:06:39,720 --> 00:06:42,320 Speaker 1: of beanie babies. Started this small market for them just 139 00:06:42,440 --> 00:06:46,040 Speaker 1: in this town. As this started to happen, as this 140 00:06:46,160 --> 00:06:49,800 Speaker 1: kind of starts in this small town, this woman Peggy 141 00:06:49,839 --> 00:06:54,520 Speaker 1: Gallagher and her sister Dr. Paula Brinko had this idea, 142 00:06:54,640 --> 00:06:57,839 Speaker 1: you know, we're just calling stores like in the Chicago 143 00:06:57,920 --> 00:07:00,919 Speaker 1: area where this all started, but we call stores in 144 00:07:01,000 --> 00:07:03,799 Speaker 1: like other states will be able to find beanie babies 145 00:07:03,839 --> 00:07:06,560 Speaker 1: that are really rare that no one else has, so 146 00:07:06,560 --> 00:07:09,240 Speaker 1: they go to start going local chambers of commerce and 147 00:07:09,279 --> 00:07:11,760 Speaker 1: getting lists of all of the gift shops. The woman 148 00:07:11,760 --> 00:07:14,400 Speaker 1: who's a doctor at the same time that she's doing this, 149 00:07:14,520 --> 00:07:18,600 Speaker 1: she's doing this study on women who were like diabetic 150 00:07:18,680 --> 00:07:21,920 Speaker 1: or something where she had to call hospitals to talk 151 00:07:21,960 --> 00:07:24,840 Speaker 1: to their researchers, and after she called the researcher, she 152 00:07:24,840 --> 00:07:27,000 Speaker 1: would ask to be transferred to the gift shop to 153 00:07:27,040 --> 00:07:29,320 Speaker 1: ask about beanie babies so she could try to order 154 00:07:29,320 --> 00:07:31,000 Speaker 1: the rare one. But this is the part of the 155 00:07:31,000 --> 00:07:34,000 Speaker 1: story that I love because we eventually go from this 156 00:07:34,080 --> 00:07:38,960 Speaker 1: like small group of soccer mom collectors who professionalize themselves 157 00:07:39,040 --> 00:07:43,080 Speaker 1: as beanie baby dealers and beanie baby market experts. I mean, 158 00:07:43,160 --> 00:07:46,680 Speaker 1: one of them had a Beanie World magazine. She was 159 00:07:46,720 --> 00:07:50,320 Speaker 1: a self described Chicago suburban soccer mom. She had a 160 00:07:50,360 --> 00:07:53,440 Speaker 1: magazine with the circulation of more than one million million 161 00:07:53,480 --> 00:07:56,640 Speaker 1: a month and more ads per copy than Glamour. These 162 00:07:56,640 --> 00:07:59,680 Speaker 1: were like thick magazines full of ads. So people start 163 00:07:59,760 --> 00:08:02,160 Speaker 1: seeing the priceless for these beanies, and they all figure 164 00:08:02,480 --> 00:08:04,360 Speaker 1: prices are going to go up forever. These are good 165 00:08:04,400 --> 00:08:07,360 Speaker 1: investments right, and the stores that are hearing all of 166 00:08:07,400 --> 00:08:09,880 Speaker 1: a sudden out of nowhere start getting calls from these 167 00:08:09,880 --> 00:08:12,960 Speaker 1: out of state collectors are like, oh my gosh, beanie 168 00:08:12,960 --> 00:08:15,640 Speaker 1: babies are really hot. It starts out as like two 169 00:08:15,640 --> 00:08:18,440 Speaker 1: people did the did the magazine that published the prices? 170 00:08:18,440 --> 00:08:20,800 Speaker 1: Because I remember I used to collect baseball cards when 171 00:08:20,800 --> 00:08:22,920 Speaker 1: as a kid, and there was the Beckett magazine, and 172 00:08:22,960 --> 00:08:25,600 Speaker 1: there was like a crucial avenue by which the baseball 173 00:08:25,720 --> 00:08:29,720 Speaker 1: card bubble, which also burst, everyone checked the prices each month. 174 00:08:29,760 --> 00:08:32,199 Speaker 1: So did the magazine for beanie babies serve a similar 175 00:08:32,200 --> 00:08:35,600 Speaker 1: purpose hugely, so that there's a reflexivity. I think two 176 00:08:35,640 --> 00:08:39,360 Speaker 1: price guides where they impact prices as much as they 177 00:08:39,400 --> 00:08:42,400 Speaker 1: report on them. And the first price let's which trebo 178 00:08:42,440 --> 00:08:45,480 Speaker 1: this lady Peggy Gallagher, which she started to circulate. She 179 00:08:45,480 --> 00:08:47,840 Speaker 1: put an ad in like a magazine for other collectors, 180 00:08:47,840 --> 00:08:50,160 Speaker 1: saying he sent her self addressed stamped envelope, she would 181 00:08:50,160 --> 00:08:53,520 Speaker 1: send you this checklist, and she was like, well, what 182 00:08:53,520 --> 00:08:55,840 Speaker 1: should I do? Her prices? She just made them up. Basically, 183 00:08:55,880 --> 00:08:58,160 Speaker 1: she told me this that she said this one's rare, 184 00:08:58,200 --> 00:09:00,360 Speaker 1: so that one should be worth twenty dollars. These were 185 00:09:00,360 --> 00:09:02,920 Speaker 1: not really based on anything, and then she kind of 186 00:09:02,960 --> 00:09:04,839 Speaker 1: sat back and watched on like the A O. L 187 00:09:04,880 --> 00:09:08,720 Speaker 1: message boards, is these priceless she was making up kind 188 00:09:08,720 --> 00:09:11,960 Speaker 1: of became the the price and so talk about that 189 00:09:12,120 --> 00:09:14,280 Speaker 1: how the internet and those are the early days of 190 00:09:14,320 --> 00:09:17,160 Speaker 1: the Internet helped stoke that bubble, so that this is 191 00:09:17,160 --> 00:09:19,840 Speaker 1: a bean babies were ten percent of ebays sales. In 192 00:09:19,880 --> 00:09:23,000 Speaker 1: the early days of ebays. eBay disclosed in the risk 193 00:09:23,080 --> 00:09:26,600 Speaker 1: factors to its sec FI lanes, a dependence on the 194 00:09:26,640 --> 00:09:32,160 Speaker 1: contain crazy yes, and so people were getting computers and 195 00:09:32,200 --> 00:09:35,280 Speaker 1: beanie babies more than anything. Really gave people a reason 196 00:09:35,400 --> 00:09:37,640 Speaker 1: to go on eBay and to do online trading and 197 00:09:37,679 --> 00:09:39,760 Speaker 1: actually just e commerce in general, not just there was 198 00:09:39,800 --> 00:09:41,920 Speaker 1: also trader and message wards. In the early days of 199 00:09:41,920 --> 00:09:43,360 Speaker 1: e commerce, there were a lot of stories that it 200 00:09:43,400 --> 00:09:45,320 Speaker 1: was not growing as quickly as people thought it would. 201 00:09:45,520 --> 00:09:48,680 Speaker 1: People weren't comfortable with it. Stuff was too expensive to 202 00:09:48,720 --> 00:09:51,480 Speaker 1: ship with beanie babies something that had a kind of 203 00:09:51,520 --> 00:09:54,480 Speaker 1: weird you weren't sure exactly what they were worth. They 204 00:09:54,520 --> 00:09:56,600 Speaker 1: were easy to ship, and they were really hard to 205 00:09:56,600 --> 00:10:00,880 Speaker 1: find locally. It brought people onto econ ummers in a 206 00:10:00,920 --> 00:10:04,040 Speaker 1: way that other more mundane products like pets dot Com, 207 00:10:04,080 --> 00:10:07,240 Speaker 1: we're not able to. So even though it's a completely 208 00:10:07,280 --> 00:10:11,199 Speaker 1: pointless bubble of ultimately worthless stuffed animals, it actually did help. 209 00:10:11,280 --> 00:10:13,640 Speaker 1: It had a beneficial effect on the development of these 210 00:10:13,679 --> 00:10:16,880 Speaker 1: Internet markets. Meg Whitman has said in interviews that that 211 00:10:17,000 --> 00:10:19,520 Speaker 1: eBay and I think Pierre Omyard said the same thing, 212 00:10:19,600 --> 00:10:21,600 Speaker 1: that eBay may not have gotten off the ground without 213 00:10:21,600 --> 00:10:24,719 Speaker 1: beanie babies. So, Joe, I know, you remember what the 214 00:10:24,840 --> 00:10:30,000 Speaker 1: late nineties were like. When we look back on Beatie babies, 215 00:10:30,000 --> 00:10:32,720 Speaker 1: it seems amazing that people spent all this money on them. 216 00:10:32,800 --> 00:10:36,280 Speaker 1: All this time. We had one, at least one instance 217 00:10:36,320 --> 00:10:39,880 Speaker 1: of a guy committing murder because of a soured Beatie 218 00:10:39,880 --> 00:10:42,600 Speaker 1: baby deal. Do you remember how nuts it was? Are 219 00:10:42,640 --> 00:10:44,600 Speaker 1: you talking about beanie babies? Are just the late nineties 220 00:10:44,600 --> 00:10:46,920 Speaker 1: and gems? I mean, I would say they're linked, right, 221 00:10:47,080 --> 00:10:50,199 Speaker 1: They're absolutely the people who when they think back and 222 00:10:50,240 --> 00:10:52,959 Speaker 1: they talk about the nineties bubble, it's often referred to 223 00:10:53,160 --> 00:10:56,040 Speaker 1: as a tech bubble or the Internet bubble or the 224 00:10:56,120 --> 00:10:59,480 Speaker 1: dot com bubble. It completely misses the point. Yes, I 225 00:10:59,679 --> 00:11:03,120 Speaker 1: was so much, It was so much bigger. It was 226 00:11:03,200 --> 00:11:06,640 Speaker 1: such a big It was a sense of optimism about 227 00:11:06,760 --> 00:11:09,679 Speaker 1: everything all at the same time, and so there's so 228 00:11:09,800 --> 00:11:13,240 Speaker 1: many wonderful stories about people completely losing their mind. My 229 00:11:13,400 --> 00:11:17,880 Speaker 1: single favorite story of the late nineties bubble was when 230 00:11:17,920 --> 00:11:22,360 Speaker 1: a car dealership in Nevada. It was called Uniprime Capital Acceptance, 231 00:11:22,440 --> 00:11:24,240 Speaker 1: And I remember this very vividly because I was on 232 00:11:24,320 --> 00:11:26,720 Speaker 1: the message boards at the time. It was a penny 233 00:11:26,800 --> 00:11:31,199 Speaker 1: stock maybe you traded trading, I was. They put out 234 00:11:31,200 --> 00:11:34,080 Speaker 1: a press release that said they had a cure for AIDS. 235 00:11:34,360 --> 00:11:36,760 Speaker 1: A car dealership in Nevada. The like was someone we've 236 00:11:36,800 --> 00:11:40,120 Speaker 1: worked with or if we licensed this thing from a scientist. 237 00:11:40,280 --> 00:11:42,439 Speaker 1: They just straight up we have a cure for AIDS. 238 00:11:42,679 --> 00:11:46,199 Speaker 1: And you know, even in the craziest times, like that's 239 00:11:46,240 --> 00:11:49,800 Speaker 1: kind of a skeptical belief, but enough people believed that 240 00:11:49,880 --> 00:11:52,520 Speaker 1: that the stocks surged, it doubled, and then it doubled 241 00:11:52,559 --> 00:11:55,600 Speaker 1: again because just on the possibility that maybe a car 242 00:11:55,720 --> 00:11:58,599 Speaker 1: dealership in Nevada had found a cure for aid the 243 00:11:58,679 --> 00:12:02,559 Speaker 1: people were so optimis stick of everything that it seemed 244 00:12:03,480 --> 00:12:07,440 Speaker 1: not unbelievable. There was a people talk about the internet 245 00:12:07,480 --> 00:12:12,000 Speaker 1: stocks anything that was that breathed on the Internet, people 246 00:12:12,000 --> 00:12:14,280 Speaker 1: are going crazy for One of my favorite facts is 247 00:12:14,320 --> 00:12:16,840 Speaker 1: the fact that k Tell, the company that makes really 248 00:12:16,960 --> 00:12:21,959 Speaker 1: cheesy compilation CDs of like seventies DISCOMs, they sold their 249 00:12:22,000 --> 00:12:26,600 Speaker 1: CDs online, Big whoop. The stock grew tenfold at one point, 250 00:12:26,679 --> 00:12:29,319 Speaker 1: and then over the span of a few months, people 251 00:12:29,480 --> 00:12:31,480 Speaker 1: were losing their minds. The other fact that I love 252 00:12:31,640 --> 00:12:34,320 Speaker 1: is the fact that the segue that you know didn't 253 00:12:34,360 --> 00:12:37,000 Speaker 1: really take off, but people still go tours around. People 254 00:12:37,040 --> 00:12:39,800 Speaker 1: really thought the entire cities were going to be redesigned 255 00:12:40,200 --> 00:12:42,360 Speaker 1: because of how the segue I got people around. So 256 00:12:42,600 --> 00:12:47,559 Speaker 1: basically it was a time of just incredible optimism about everything. So, Zach, 257 00:12:47,640 --> 00:12:49,679 Speaker 1: I'm curious. In your book you quote a lot from 258 00:12:49,760 --> 00:12:52,920 Speaker 1: existing you know, economic and financial literature. You quote people 259 00:12:52,960 --> 00:12:56,400 Speaker 1: like Robert Schiller on the optimism that precedes bubbles when 260 00:12:56,440 --> 00:12:58,559 Speaker 1: it comes to beanie babies. If you could kind of 261 00:12:58,640 --> 00:13:03,520 Speaker 1: pinpoint one thing that flipped it into speculative mania, what 262 00:13:03,600 --> 00:13:07,160 Speaker 1: would it be. It's people seeing prices rise. That that 263 00:13:07,360 --> 00:13:10,800 Speaker 1: is what drives what drives speculative bubbles is that as 264 00:13:10,880 --> 00:13:15,079 Speaker 1: soon as there's you know, this insignificant phenomenon of someone 265 00:13:15,120 --> 00:13:18,160 Speaker 1: who's trying to complete a set for their kid, as 266 00:13:18,240 --> 00:13:20,679 Speaker 1: soon as they pay a hundred dollars for a beanie 267 00:13:20,720 --> 00:13:24,160 Speaker 1: baby that someone paid five dollars for. That's what sets 268 00:13:24,200 --> 00:13:27,440 Speaker 1: in motion, or at least can set in motion certainly 269 00:13:27,840 --> 00:13:30,480 Speaker 1: this kind of chain, because that becomes a story and 270 00:13:30,520 --> 00:13:33,040 Speaker 1: beanie babies, and I think all bubbles are spread by 271 00:13:33,160 --> 00:13:35,560 Speaker 1: by narrative, by people saying I bought this beanie baby 272 00:13:35,640 --> 00:13:38,120 Speaker 1: for five dollars and sold it for a hundred. Anyone 273 00:13:38,160 --> 00:13:40,160 Speaker 1: who did that told a thousand people about it because 274 00:13:40,160 --> 00:13:41,880 Speaker 1: it was so weird. So how big did it get in? 275 00:13:42,200 --> 00:13:45,040 Speaker 1: Is there an estimate of what the total outstanding value 276 00:13:45,040 --> 00:13:48,079 Speaker 1: of beanie babies was at the TIS annual sales peaked 277 00:13:48,080 --> 00:13:51,199 Speaker 1: it around one point five billion dollars um. And that 278 00:13:51,360 --> 00:13:56,520 Speaker 1: was just wholesale. Other people who there must be but 279 00:13:56,679 --> 00:13:58,319 Speaker 1: have a bunch and held it all the way down 280 00:13:58,440 --> 00:14:00,439 Speaker 1: and now just they live in a house filled with it. 281 00:14:00,480 --> 00:14:04,839 Speaker 1: There is a retired soap opera star in Arizona. I think, 282 00:14:05,640 --> 00:14:07,520 Speaker 1: remember what's come so long as I talked to him. Um, 283 00:14:07,960 --> 00:14:10,000 Speaker 1: there's a retired soap opera star who lost his kids 284 00:14:10,040 --> 00:14:12,480 Speaker 1: six figure college funds on them and has like thirty 285 00:14:12,520 --> 00:14:15,800 Speaker 1: thousand of them still in his home. That's Graham. We 286 00:14:15,960 --> 00:14:19,120 Speaker 1: talked about how these sort of bubbles began, at least 287 00:14:19,120 --> 00:14:21,240 Speaker 1: in the case of beanie babies, how did it end? 288 00:14:21,720 --> 00:14:25,280 Speaker 1: Because it did start to fizzle out in and within 289 00:14:25,400 --> 00:14:29,080 Speaker 1: a couple of years the secondary market value of thousands 290 00:14:29,160 --> 00:14:31,560 Speaker 1: millions of stuffed animals was gone. This was one of 291 00:14:31,640 --> 00:14:33,880 Speaker 1: the funniest things about the reporting on this, and I 292 00:14:33,920 --> 00:14:36,040 Speaker 1: think there's a lot of very similar stuff with the 293 00:14:36,160 --> 00:14:40,240 Speaker 1: reporting on the housing bubble and the Internet stock bubble, 294 00:14:41,120 --> 00:14:44,000 Speaker 1: is that I would kind of pose this question to 295 00:14:44,800 --> 00:14:48,280 Speaker 1: the collectors anti executives about kind of how this thing 296 00:14:48,360 --> 00:14:53,440 Speaker 1: had ended, and they all had these really specific explanations 297 00:14:53,520 --> 00:14:55,920 Speaker 1: for it, these kind of linear cause and effect things. 298 00:14:57,040 --> 00:14:58,800 Speaker 1: You know that there was one saying, oh, you know, 299 00:14:58,880 --> 00:15:02,360 Speaker 1: the counterfeits really invaded the market and people were paying 300 00:15:02,400 --> 00:15:04,280 Speaker 1: you know, six hundred dollars and if it hadn't for 301 00:15:04,360 --> 00:15:06,560 Speaker 1: pieces they're trying to be fake, and if it hadn't 302 00:15:06,640 --> 00:15:08,720 Speaker 1: been for all the fraud this, you know, it wouldn't 303 00:15:08,720 --> 00:15:11,160 Speaker 1: have ended that way. A lot of people felt, you know, 304 00:15:11,280 --> 00:15:14,480 Speaker 1: Ty got greedy and made too many, too many styles 305 00:15:15,000 --> 00:15:19,000 Speaker 1: and overproduce them, and I'm like, okay, you know, maybe 306 00:15:19,120 --> 00:15:21,280 Speaker 1: kind of, but you know, if he hadn't done that, 307 00:15:21,440 --> 00:15:23,960 Speaker 1: then being would they still be temper cent and based 308 00:15:23,960 --> 00:15:26,200 Speaker 1: sales and we'd all be rich. I Mean, these things 309 00:15:26,400 --> 00:15:30,080 Speaker 1: end because they're stupid, right, Like that's ultimately they're they're unsustainable, 310 00:15:30,480 --> 00:15:33,280 Speaker 1: and eventually there is something that nixed them and causes 311 00:15:33,360 --> 00:15:36,120 Speaker 1: that kind of that kind of cascade of confidence that 312 00:15:36,240 --> 00:15:39,760 Speaker 1: started it to just crescendo down and and that's what happened. Um, 313 00:15:40,680 --> 00:15:44,360 Speaker 1: there's this thing. At the end of nine. Everything is 314 00:15:44,360 --> 00:15:48,400 Speaker 1: still basically going well. Secondary market sales still good, top 315 00:15:48,440 --> 00:15:51,560 Speaker 1: pieces still valuable, some overproduction on some of the newer pieces, 316 00:15:51,600 --> 00:15:54,280 Speaker 1: those are stacking up a little bit, but basically still 317 00:15:54,320 --> 00:15:57,240 Speaker 1: a strong market. No one's saying this thing's ending. Collectors 318 00:15:57,280 --> 00:16:01,480 Speaker 1: still confident, magazine still selling. Tie announces at the end 319 00:16:01,520 --> 00:16:07,320 Speaker 1: of that on that on January one, all of the 320 00:16:07,400 --> 00:16:10,800 Speaker 1: beanie Babies will be retired and that they won't be 321 00:16:10,880 --> 00:16:14,320 Speaker 1: made anymore. Theoretically, prices should have gone through the roof 322 00:16:14,400 --> 00:16:17,880 Speaker 1: at that point for a minute. Yeah, they did for 323 00:16:17,920 --> 00:16:21,240 Speaker 1: a minute, and people were very excited, and people are like, 324 00:16:21,280 --> 00:16:22,840 Speaker 1: what's going on. This is going to do a different 325 00:16:22,880 --> 00:16:26,720 Speaker 1: product and uh. And then he announced that he would 326 00:16:26,720 --> 00:16:29,720 Speaker 1: do a vote to raise money for AIDS on whether 327 00:16:29,800 --> 00:16:32,680 Speaker 1: people wanted to Beanie Babies to continue, and you would 328 00:16:32,720 --> 00:16:35,360 Speaker 1: log in and online and don't and donate that there 329 00:16:35,440 --> 00:16:37,000 Speaker 1: was some other stuff going on in his life. But 330 00:16:37,120 --> 00:16:39,120 Speaker 1: where you could donate a dollar forty nine, I think 331 00:16:39,160 --> 00:16:42,960 Speaker 1: it was to vote on whether Beanie Babies should be continued. First, 332 00:16:43,000 --> 00:16:45,520 Speaker 1: I'll raise the question of who would spend a dollar 333 00:16:45,640 --> 00:16:49,240 Speaker 1: fifty to vote to end Beanie Babies here that kind 334 00:16:49,280 --> 00:16:52,200 Speaker 1: of like. But so he does this and almost no 335 00:16:52,360 --> 00:16:54,320 Speaker 1: one voted, ended up just having to donate all the 336 00:16:54,360 --> 00:16:58,040 Speaker 1: money himself because he hadn't gotten so many votes as 337 00:16:58,080 --> 00:17:00,840 Speaker 1: he claimed he had, and announced that Beanie Babies would 338 00:17:00,840 --> 00:17:03,520 Speaker 1: be continued and that all the new releases there will 339 00:17:03,520 --> 00:17:06,960 Speaker 1: be all these new millennium collection coming out, and no 340 00:17:07,080 --> 00:17:09,600 Speaker 1: one cared, and the whole thing just every month after that, 341 00:17:09,760 --> 00:17:13,280 Speaker 1: the sales collapsed and people started to That caused your 342 00:17:13,280 --> 00:17:15,440 Speaker 1: out crisis of confidence about the right and then what 343 00:17:15,600 --> 00:17:18,479 Speaker 1: causes and then what happened was so these retire Beanie Babies. 344 00:17:18,560 --> 00:17:20,800 Speaker 1: I remember talking to one of the first collectors who 345 00:17:20,880 --> 00:17:24,040 Speaker 1: was underway back from speaking in a Beanie Baby convention 346 00:17:24,119 --> 00:17:26,840 Speaker 1: as a paid expert, you know, like a keynote speaker 347 00:17:26,880 --> 00:17:28,960 Speaker 1: on beanie babies, and she was at the O'Hare airport 348 00:17:29,680 --> 00:17:32,959 Speaker 1: and she saw a stack of beanie babies. There were 349 00:17:33,000 --> 00:17:36,440 Speaker 1: still five dollars in the store. But we're retired, and 350 00:17:36,560 --> 00:17:38,920 Speaker 1: this was like mind blow. I mean, people thought it 351 00:17:38,960 --> 00:17:41,879 Speaker 1: was a law of physics that a retired beanie baby 352 00:17:42,119 --> 00:17:44,960 Speaker 1: was worth more than five dollars and that that was 353 00:17:45,040 --> 00:17:47,920 Speaker 1: just true. And uh, I mean, you know, kind of 354 00:17:47,960 --> 00:17:49,680 Speaker 1: like you know, hoving prices don't go down. None of 355 00:17:49,720 --> 00:17:52,280 Speaker 1: the models included that. None of their models include the 356 00:17:52,359 --> 00:17:55,680 Speaker 1: idea that a retired beanie baby could conceivably still just 357 00:17:55,800 --> 00:17:59,719 Speaker 1: be worth the retail price. Um. One of my favorite 358 00:17:59,760 --> 00:18:02,320 Speaker 1: saying on Wall Street is that something becomes a bubble. 359 00:18:02,760 --> 00:18:05,919 Speaker 1: Once the bubble bursts, anything else is a great trade, right, 360 00:18:06,200 --> 00:18:09,600 Speaker 1: he just made tons of money. When you look around 361 00:18:09,640 --> 00:18:13,119 Speaker 1: the world, it seems like we are continuously seeing warnings 362 00:18:13,160 --> 00:18:16,159 Speaker 1: about bubbles again in tech, lots of other areas and 363 00:18:16,280 --> 00:18:21,080 Speaker 1: financial markets. Having studied, uh, the science of stuffed animals, 364 00:18:21,440 --> 00:18:23,320 Speaker 1: do you have any wisdom for how we can spot 365 00:18:23,400 --> 00:18:27,520 Speaker 1: bubbles before they burst and before they burst? I think 366 00:18:27,600 --> 00:18:31,600 Speaker 1: the thing, just behaviorally is that when wood is driving, 367 00:18:31,680 --> 00:18:35,280 Speaker 1: it is entirely stories about how much money people have 368 00:18:35,400 --> 00:18:38,600 Speaker 1: been making on it. That's something to be really concerned about. 369 00:18:38,920 --> 00:18:42,800 Speaker 1: And I think any time you have a kind of 370 00:18:43,080 --> 00:18:47,320 Speaker 1: surge of interest in new entrants into a field based 371 00:18:47,480 --> 00:18:50,440 Speaker 1: on sort of past successes of other ones, there was 372 00:18:50,480 --> 00:18:52,359 Speaker 1: a ton of that with the Internet bubble. You had 373 00:18:52,440 --> 00:18:56,879 Speaker 1: legitimate companies go public first and then the next one 374 00:18:56,960 --> 00:18:58,119 Speaker 1: you know, this is going to be the next that, 375 00:18:58,200 --> 00:19:00,320 Speaker 1: and that was a piece of crap. So I think, well, 376 00:19:00,720 --> 00:19:02,399 Speaker 1: to me, you know, to bring your point to the 377 00:19:02,520 --> 00:19:05,120 Speaker 1: current era. You know, we've been hearing about a possible 378 00:19:05,240 --> 00:19:08,000 Speaker 1: tech bubble for the last ten years. I mean, when 379 00:19:08,040 --> 00:19:10,960 Speaker 1: Facebook was valued at a billion dollars, people said tech bubble, 380 00:19:10,960 --> 00:19:13,440 Speaker 1: and now it's worth hundreds of times that. But I 381 00:19:13,520 --> 00:19:16,560 Speaker 1: did see an ad on Instagram this week that was 382 00:19:16,680 --> 00:19:19,800 Speaker 1: promising how to make your billion dollar app, like a 383 00:19:19,920 --> 00:19:22,240 Speaker 1: service that would teach people how to make an app 384 00:19:22,280 --> 00:19:24,880 Speaker 1: that would be worth a billion dollars, And that reminds 385 00:19:24,960 --> 00:19:28,280 Speaker 1: me of like telling stories just about the money. It 386 00:19:28,359 --> 00:19:30,760 Speaker 1: was like, is the next level of the euphoria. I 387 00:19:30,840 --> 00:19:34,600 Speaker 1: always love those like JP Morgan Shoeshine Bobbie stories about bubble. 388 00:19:34,680 --> 00:19:37,960 Speaker 1: So I think, I mean, I remember when I was 389 00:19:38,000 --> 00:19:41,520 Speaker 1: in high school, my bus driver and this was dangerous 390 00:19:41,520 --> 00:19:44,520 Speaker 1: because he was driving a bus full of kids, and 391 00:19:44,600 --> 00:19:46,919 Speaker 1: he had to cell phones and he was flipping houses 392 00:19:46,960 --> 00:19:49,240 Speaker 1: while he was driving, talking to his like real estate 393 00:19:49,280 --> 00:19:51,480 Speaker 1: ass and his manager, and I just so I always 394 00:19:51,480 --> 00:19:55,639 Speaker 1: look for things like that. I remember when that year 395 00:19:55,720 --> 00:19:58,480 Speaker 1: at a summer job, we'd go to the pizza place 396 00:19:59,119 --> 00:20:01,440 Speaker 1: and they would allo so while it was just a 397 00:20:01,480 --> 00:20:04,439 Speaker 1: little pizza shop, and they would also have a rival 398 00:20:04,640 --> 00:20:08,800 Speaker 1: financial network to Bloomberg on TV all the time. That 399 00:20:08,960 --> 00:20:13,400 Speaker 1: was what the pizza guys were watching was CNBC rival network. Well, 400 00:20:13,480 --> 00:20:17,120 Speaker 1: said Joe, you actually managed to make some money from 401 00:20:17,160 --> 00:20:19,639 Speaker 1: internet stocks. How did you time it? Because it seems 402 00:20:19,680 --> 00:20:21,719 Speaker 1: like the timing is key here. Lots of people did 403 00:20:21,800 --> 00:20:23,919 Speaker 1: get rich off beanie babies, and lots of people got 404 00:20:23,960 --> 00:20:26,680 Speaker 1: really poor. It was really it was the best luck 405 00:20:26,720 --> 00:20:30,720 Speaker 1: I've ever had. I was trading through UM the basically 406 00:20:30,880 --> 00:20:35,439 Speaker 1: Christmas break of two thousand and then I had to study. 407 00:20:35,560 --> 00:20:38,960 Speaker 1: I studied abroad in Switzerland in the spring of two 408 00:20:39,040 --> 00:20:42,600 Speaker 1: thousand and Before I left, I sold all my stocks 409 00:20:42,600 --> 00:20:44,400 Speaker 1: because like, I'm not gonna be able to trade while 410 00:20:44,440 --> 00:20:48,159 Speaker 1: I'm studying abroad. That it didn't seem plausible. And then 411 00:20:48,240 --> 00:20:50,280 Speaker 1: the bubble birth while I was studying abroad, so out 412 00:20:50,320 --> 00:20:53,119 Speaker 1: of pure luck with no insight, you need to craft 413 00:20:53,200 --> 00:20:56,080 Speaker 1: that into a narrative about your own foresight. No, it 414 00:20:56,200 --> 00:21:00,320 Speaker 1: was just the opposite. That's just pure luck. That just 415 00:21:00,359 --> 00:21:02,560 Speaker 1: happened to sell like a couple of months before the peak, 416 00:21:02,640 --> 00:21:05,200 Speaker 1: so that that worked out well. All right, So you 417 00:21:05,280 --> 00:21:08,280 Speaker 1: made thousands off internet stocks and I made two bucks 418 00:21:08,359 --> 00:21:10,920 Speaker 1: from a single beanie baby, but you got to cuddle it, 419 00:21:11,080 --> 00:21:15,000 Speaker 1: so that's I'm not sure. Um, all right, Zach. It 420 00:21:15,200 --> 00:21:17,840 Speaker 1: was lovely having you on the show. Thank you so much. 421 00:21:18,000 --> 00:21:22,360 Speaker 1: This was fun. That's great, Thank you, all right, Joe. 422 00:21:22,440 --> 00:21:26,320 Speaker 1: We just had a really interesting, entertaining conversation. What did 423 00:21:26,400 --> 00:21:29,359 Speaker 1: you learn? I actually think my favorite single fact was 424 00:21:29,440 --> 00:21:33,000 Speaker 1: that point about the magazine and the relationship between seeing 425 00:21:33,160 --> 00:21:37,000 Speaker 1: prices written down and seeing prices move and then the 426 00:21:37,080 --> 00:21:39,119 Speaker 1: effect that has on actual prices. I think that's a 427 00:21:39,160 --> 00:21:41,480 Speaker 1: fascinating point, right. I just love the idea that this 428 00:21:41,600 --> 00:21:45,760 Speaker 1: group of soccer moms in Chicago became market and tycoons, 429 00:21:45,920 --> 00:21:48,520 Speaker 1: and I hadn't thought about that before, this idea of 430 00:21:48,760 --> 00:21:52,119 Speaker 1: their being there needing to be a complete set of them, um, 431 00:21:52,320 --> 00:21:55,119 Speaker 1: and so it sort of creates this inherent scarcity to 432 00:21:55,240 --> 00:21:58,480 Speaker 1: them that drives up demand. That was an aspect of 433 00:21:58,520 --> 00:22:02,040 Speaker 1: the beanie baby boom that I had not realized before. 434 00:22:02,240 --> 00:22:05,119 Speaker 1: Artificial scarcity is a hot topic in economics right now. 435 00:22:05,440 --> 00:22:09,320 Speaker 1: Maybe that's something for another podcast. This is Tracy Alloway. 436 00:22:09,440 --> 00:22:12,600 Speaker 1: You can find me at Tracy Alloway on Twitter, and 437 00:22:12,720 --> 00:22:15,680 Speaker 1: I'm Joe Wisenthal. Find me at The Stalwart on Twitter. 438 00:22:16,040 --> 00:22:18,040 Speaker 1: And if you want to follow Zack, he's on Twitter 439 00:22:18,160 --> 00:22:21,560 Speaker 1: too at Zach Pissinet. And thank you for listening to 440 00:22:21,800 --> 00:22:23,359 Speaker 1: odd Locks. Tune Indective