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Speaker 1: Good luck with the most beautiful game. Do us prow

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Speaker 1: read enough?

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Speaker 2: There were running again?

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Speaker 1: So smoothe so sweet, slipid.

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Speaker 2: Sixteen Just glorious execution. Guys, all I'm looking for is

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Speaker 2: sixty percent effort four thousand percent of the time. How

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Speaker 2: shot with that? Shop with mind bog buddy, And.

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Speaker 1: That's why you see your beautiful tiers. Look at his movements, the.

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Speaker 2: Most dangerous amount of the planet.

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Speaker 1: Nobody picks them. Shut up, I'm trying.

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Speaker 2: The love is left to Wanda wide.

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Speaker 1: Eyed drill bibus, how old Earth pick that happens? Hello everybody,

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Speaker 1: and welcome to Wondergold Soccer betting podcast from the Action Network.

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Speaker 1: I am your host today, BJ Cunning him alongside my

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Speaker 1: friend and co host Anthony Dubundo. We are going to

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Speaker 1: go through the rest of the European leagues outside of

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Speaker 1: the Premier League. We've already done an hour and a

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Speaker 1: half on the Premier League. We spend about an hour

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Speaker 1: talking about relegation in England. Now it's time to take

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Speaker 1: a jaunt around the rest of Europe. But first before

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Speaker 1: I bring in Anthony, Wonder Goal is presented by bet

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Speaker 1: two hundred dollars and bonus bets. Must be twenty one

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Speaker 1: years or older. Offers available in Colorado, New Jersey, Ohio, Virginia,

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Speaker 1: and Iowa in the United States. If you have a

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Speaker 1: gambling problem, please call her text one eight hundred Gambler. So,

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Speaker 1: like I mentioned, we've already done the Premier League, so

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Speaker 1: now it's time to go through the other main four

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Speaker 1: leagues in Europe, the Bundesliga, Siria, La Liga, and League,

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Speaker 1: and then we'll give out maybe one or two of

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Speaker 1: our other favorite bets outside of those four leagues around Europe.

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Speaker 1: But for us, there's only one logical place to start,

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Speaker 1: and that is to start in Germany. Coming off one

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Speaker 1: of the most exciting title races that we've ever seen

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Speaker 1: in Germany with Byron winning on the final day Dortmund,

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Speaker 1: all they need to do is beat Minz. We all

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Speaker 1: had Mines thirteen to one. I don't want to bring

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Speaker 1: that up again. But now reading through the title odds,

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Speaker 1: you know Byron has been, you know, historically has been

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Speaker 1: a massive favorite every single year, but this year they're

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Speaker 1: only minus three fifty to win the Bundesegotia. I think

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Speaker 1: it is the lowest I've ever seen them. Dortmund is

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Speaker 1: sitting at five to one, Leipzig twelve to one, Leverkusen

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Speaker 1: is fifty to one. Unjan Berlin and Frankfurt are both

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Speaker 1: one hundred to one, Freiberg and Gladbach are both one

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Speaker 1: hundred and fifty to one. Wolfsburg and Hoffenheim are both

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Speaker 1: two hundred and fifty to one. Minz, Cologne and Verdebremen

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Speaker 1: are all five hundred to one. Bochem, Augsburg and Stuttgart

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Speaker 1: are all one thousand to one, and your two newly

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Speaker 1: promoted teams, Heidenheim and Darmstadt are both two thousand to one. Anthony,

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Speaker 1: I just talked for a really long time there. Let's

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Speaker 1: start with a conversation with Bayern Munich because this is

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Speaker 1: the lowest I've seen them to win the league, and

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Speaker 1: I'm wondering if they might be a good parlay piece

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Speaker 1: with something else to get this price down, because in

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Speaker 1: my opinion, I think they're clear in a way the

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Speaker 1: best team in Germany and maybe should be closer to

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Speaker 1: round minus five hundred to win this league.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I would agree. I think there are some real

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Speaker 2: questions about the striker situation. Other than that, I don't

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Speaker 2: really think it's that close. Byron went out in the

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Speaker 2: summer and they made a solid center back edition with

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Speaker 2: kim Minjay from Napoli as signing that I'm particularly a

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Speaker 2: fan of. I think it's a good partnership with mcconno,

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Speaker 2: and they've had some inconsistency there from mcconno at times

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Speaker 2: where we've seen him get exposed a little bit. Add

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Speaker 2: some depth there. They add Rafael Guerrero, who is one

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Speaker 2: of the best ball progressors in all of Europe, led

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Speaker 2: Dortmund in passing the penalty area, really was the outlet

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Speaker 2: and just is so good at getting up the winging

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Speaker 2: him and Davies. Davies was in and out of fitness

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Speaker 2: at times last year and formed, but the two of

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Speaker 2: them are so dominant, and you know, the midfield is

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Speaker 2: still as good as ever with Kimmick and Gretzka kind

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Speaker 2: of in their peak prime here. So where's the hole

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Speaker 2: in Byron And we all know what it is. I mean,

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Speaker 2: it's the striker. And they went from having a twenty

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Speaker 2: five to thirty plus goal year player in Lewandowski to

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Speaker 2: someone who you know, choop mooting was okay, but they

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Speaker 2: really had scattered gold production. I mean, it had been

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Speaker 2: so dominated by Lewandowski that his absence it didn't really

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Speaker 2: change how good Byron was in the aggregate. You know,

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Speaker 2: they finished last season plus one point one point one

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Speaker 2: XG difference per ninety the season prior, they were a

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Speaker 2: little better, but it wasn't because the attack necessarily dropped off.

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Speaker 2: It was only marginally worse. It was just a matter

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Speaker 2: of you know, the results coming in different ways. Like

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Speaker 2: the amount of goals scored for Byron wasn't all that

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Speaker 2: different last season compared to the year before. But again

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Speaker 2: the variance increases because their average shot distance was a

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Speaker 2: little lower or a little longer. They didn't get, you know,

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Speaker 2: that consistent finishing production from the center and Chupomo ting.

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Speaker 2: You know, what can we reasonably expect from him? Because

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Speaker 2: most of his production in Germany came in the Novelsman era.

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Speaker 2: He was injured toward the end of the season. Slash

98
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Speaker 2: not as good in the Tukul era. He wasn't really

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Speaker 2: fancied in most of those matches, so you know, he

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Speaker 2: did play sixty eight minutes in the first Tuckle match,

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Speaker 2: which they won for two but didn't score. He didn't

102
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Speaker 2: score in any matches under Tukle, so I think there's

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Speaker 2: a question as to like, what is his role how

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Speaker 2: do they go about replacing the Mane minutes. Mane wasn't

105
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Speaker 2: a huge factory down the stretch either, but he was

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Speaker 2: pretty good in the first half of the season, so

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Speaker 2: you can see why there's a lot of cracks in

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Speaker 2: this Byron team. But like the title race last season

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Speaker 2: wasn't actually as close as maybe the market the real

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Speaker 2: life situation. I mean, Byron ran really cold and Dortmund

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Speaker 2: ran really well to get to a point where Dortmann

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Speaker 2: had a chance to win the title on the final day.

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Speaker 2: It took a lot of variance going against Dortmann or

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Speaker 2: going against Byron to even get a title race. So

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Speaker 2: I'm kind of skeptical, especially since Dortmann now loses their

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Speaker 2: best two players in terms of all progression, their best

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Speaker 2: all around player in Jude Bellingham. The replacement situation is

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Speaker 2: a little bit shaky, like Dortmund has a similar problem

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Speaker 2: that they don't really have a set place for all

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Speaker 2: of their goals to come from unless hall Air puts

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Speaker 2: it all together. So I'm kind of indifferent on the market.

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Speaker 2: I think Byron's a little cheap, but I'm not laying

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Speaker 2: a minus three seventy five. They'll tie up my money

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Speaker 2: for eight months nine months, so I have no real

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Speaker 2: play on the title market in this situation. But I

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Speaker 2: just think Byron's just worse unless they go in and

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Speaker 2: get a top end striker.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I agree. I mean that's the conversation that we've had, right,

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Speaker 1: You have the nail right on the head there that

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Speaker 1: so much had to go right for Dorm and they

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Speaker 1: had to run so hot just to even catch Byron

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Speaker 1: to basically have a chance to win it on the

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Speaker 1: final day. I mean, Byron was ten goals better by

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Speaker 1: x she differential like, that's a pretty significant gap between

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Speaker 1: first and second place. And this kind of leads me

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Speaker 1: into and I know a bet that we both like

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Speaker 1: is another market, which is winner without Bayern Munich, and

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Speaker 1: we both like RBI Leipzig at plus three fifty to

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Speaker 1: be the essentially finish in second place or you know,

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Speaker 1: obviously without Bayern Munich. It kind of leads to the

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Speaker 1: conversation you were talking about with Dortmund, is that they

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Speaker 1: are losing their two best players. They're losing their best

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Speaker 1: ball progressor up the left wing. They're losing Jude Bellingham,

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Speaker 1: who was everything in terms of transition to defending ball

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Speaker 1: progression even scored eight goals for them, like they had

146
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Speaker 1: three other guys who were tied with nine goals. So

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Speaker 1: the goal scoring is pretty dispersed throughout. Dortmund and Leipzig

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Speaker 1: had pretty much the exact same expected goal differential as

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Speaker 1: Dortmund last season. And if you look at Leipzig, yes,

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Speaker 1: I know, they lose soba'sly and they also lost Goarvidal.

151
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Speaker 1: Excuse me, Vardiol, I'm gonna get that name pronounced right

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Speaker 1: correctly once we start talking about Manchester City one of

153
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Speaker 1: these days. But you look at what obviously Christopher and

154
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Speaker 1: Cuckoo has gone as well, but you look at what

155
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Speaker 1: they did to replace that, you could make the argument

156
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Speaker 1: they maybe even got a little bit better offensively throughout

157
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Speaker 1: all these transitions. They bring over Benjamin Seshko from Salzburg

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Speaker 1: who's a very very promising talent scored a ton of

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Speaker 1: goals for Arbie Salbsk in the Austrian League. They bring

160
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Speaker 1: over to Luis Openda from Lenz who backed twenty one

161
00:08:32,960 --> 00:08:36,040
Speaker 1: goals point six to six x gp per ninety minute striker,

162
00:08:36,240 --> 00:08:39,679
Speaker 1: very very good and Shabi Simones, who you can make

163
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Speaker 1: the argument was the best player in the nether Ones

164
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Speaker 1: last season. And they still have Timo Werner. Like the

165
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Speaker 1: depth now that they have an attack is crazy, so

166
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Speaker 1: the limitation on them is not as high as maybe

167
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Speaker 1: it was when they lost two of their best attacking players.

168
00:08:56,480 --> 00:08:59,560
Speaker 1: Like the ceiling is right where it was it was

169
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Speaker 1: last sear And then you go to the defensive side

170
00:09:02,440 --> 00:09:06,360
Speaker 1: of the ball. Obviously, losing Gavardiol is a huge loss

171
00:09:06,360 --> 00:09:10,920
Speaker 1: for them, it's massive, but since Marco Rosa took over,

172
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Speaker 1: this has been one of the best defensive teams in

173
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Speaker 1: all of Europe. They were a point eighty six non

174
00:09:15,400 --> 00:09:19,360
Speaker 1: penalty expectacles allowed in his twenty nine matches in charge

175
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Speaker 1: in the Bundesliga. That was better than Bayern and better

176
00:09:22,240 --> 00:09:25,520
Speaker 1: than pretty much everybody else throughout Europe. So obviously losing

177
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Speaker 1: a big piece like Gavardiol is massive, but they still

178
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Speaker 1: have Simcon, they still have or been, They're still solid

179
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Speaker 1: defensively at the back, so I don't think you're gonna

180
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Speaker 1: see this catastrophic, catastrophic drop off like we might be

181
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Speaker 1: seeing with Dortmund here. So honestly, I think Leipzig should

182
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Speaker 1: be way closer to a pick them if you were

183
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Speaker 1: doing you know, because this is essentially a matchup bet,

184
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Speaker 1: Like nobody was even close to these two teams in

185
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Speaker 1: terms of underlying metrics, and that's really what we're What

186
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Speaker 1: it comes down to is that Leipzig probably should be

187
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Speaker 1: a pick em against Dortmund in this type of market.

188
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Speaker 1: But they're sitting at plus three fifty, so I know

189
00:09:58,320 --> 00:09:59,880
Speaker 1: it's a bet that we both.

190
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Speaker 2: Like, Yeah, I like this down there, like damn near

191
00:10:02,400 --> 00:10:04,240
Speaker 2: plus one fifty. Now, I would bet this because I

192
00:10:04,440 --> 00:10:07,160
Speaker 2: think this is a pretty even market. I mean, Lavakuzin

193
00:10:07,160 --> 00:10:09,280
Speaker 2: has had an interesting summer, but they weren't really that

194
00:10:09,320 --> 00:10:11,640
Speaker 2: close to either team last year in any way, and

195
00:10:11,640 --> 00:10:14,320
Speaker 2: they do lose Musa Diab so that's like a pretty

196
00:10:14,320 --> 00:10:16,680
Speaker 2: big piece of what they like to do. I think

197
00:10:16,720 --> 00:10:19,840
Speaker 2: that we need to talk about Openda and Cesco though,

198
00:10:19,840 --> 00:10:22,160
Speaker 2: because this is this is a credit to the Leipzig

199
00:10:22,200 --> 00:10:25,720
Speaker 2: talent scouting department in the Leipzig system that it's not

200
00:10:25,760 --> 00:10:28,320
Speaker 2: about one or two players, because we've seen Leipzig sell

201
00:10:28,360 --> 00:10:32,000
Speaker 2: guys and not really miss them and get better and

202
00:10:32,040 --> 00:10:34,200
Speaker 2: I think that's really the biggest statement you can make,

203
00:10:34,240 --> 00:10:36,760
Speaker 2: because they do go Sell and Kunku, who won the

204
00:10:36,760 --> 00:10:39,040
Speaker 2: Golden Boot in the Bundesliga last year, and it added

205
00:10:39,080 --> 00:10:41,440
Speaker 2: a ton of production and assists. So a bush lies

206
00:10:41,559 --> 00:10:44,080
Speaker 2: same thing, like really good young prospect, a ton of

207
00:10:44,080 --> 00:10:48,320
Speaker 2: passing value from him, and they replace those players you

208
00:10:48,360 --> 00:10:51,840
Speaker 2: mentioned Simon's like really good numbers in the Dutch league

209
00:10:51,840 --> 00:10:54,440
Speaker 2: in the airdivisy, somebody who is expected to break into

210
00:10:54,480 --> 00:10:56,880
Speaker 2: the Dutch national team, somebody who can kind of replace

211
00:10:56,920 --> 00:10:59,560
Speaker 2: the solo Bushlye role in my view, and they get

212
00:10:59,640 --> 00:11:02,880
Speaker 2: open to replace in Kunku and sesco O Penda. Last

213
00:11:02,960 --> 00:11:07,439
Speaker 2: year shots per ninety in France, Killian Mbappe four point six,

214
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Speaker 2: you know Messi four point one, Louiso Pendet three point seven,

215
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Speaker 2: So he was third best, ahead of Floren Baligan, Alexander Lachazette,

216
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Speaker 2: Jonathan David. So he was putting up really toko wa Kambi.

217
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Speaker 2: He was putting up ridiculously good numbers over the course

218
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Speaker 2: of the season to the point where in twenty and

219
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Speaker 2: this was in twenty eight nineties in his age twenty

220
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Speaker 2: two year at Lenz. So I'm really you know, a

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Speaker 2: believer in him, and I'm I'm surprised that a bigger

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Speaker 2: club than Leipsig didn't go for him, But I think

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Speaker 2: it's a great signing and I think, you know, in

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Speaker 2: the summer where all the strikers haven't really been making

225
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Speaker 2: their final moves yet, you know, then they got him

226
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Speaker 2: in early and they got it done and Cesco put

227
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Speaker 2: up really good numbers in the bundesligather there are in

228
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Speaker 2: the Austrian Bundessliga. There are Holland comps going around. I'm

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Speaker 2: not gonna do that, but people do like the full

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Speaker 2: profile that he has, so I'm a believer in what

231
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Speaker 2: they've done to replace him. You mentioned, you know how

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Speaker 2: good they were the second half. They were putting up

233
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Speaker 2: like top five team in Europe numbers in the second half.

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Speaker 2: I think they're more likely than Dorman to challenge for

235
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Speaker 2: the title. Dorman losing Guerrero and Bellingham is just so critical,

236
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Speaker 2: not just because Bellingham was so good at ball progression,

237
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Speaker 2: but they didn't have any ball winners. The whole team

238
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Speaker 2: was kind of just assume, you know, we're gonna have possession,

239
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Speaker 2: and then all of our players forward. It was incredibly

240
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Speaker 2: aggressive from Terzak and they were kind of a sieve

241
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Speaker 2: by the end of the season. Defensively, it cost him

242
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Speaker 2: the title and Leipzig beat the shit out of them

243
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Speaker 2: twice in the second half of the season. In the

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Speaker 2: league match, Dormand won, but it wasn't very competitive on

245
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Speaker 2: the box score because they had two flup goals. And

246
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Speaker 2: then in the cup match, I think the first fifteen

247
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Speaker 2: shots of the game all went to Leipsig, So these

248
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Speaker 2: teams weren't that even in the second half. I had

249
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Speaker 2: Lipsig clearly rated better. I still do like the summer moves,

250
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Speaker 2: so yeah, let's make it two to two. Love LEPs

251
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Speaker 2: They probably one of my bigger bets of the off season.

252
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Speaker 2: I haven't finalized the card yet, but I imagine that

253
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Speaker 2: wind up being one of my biggest bets.

254
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Speaker 1: Yeah. And one of the things Dortmund did to replace

255
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Speaker 1: Spelling him they brought over Felix Metcha from Wolfsburg. But

256
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Speaker 1: if you look at his profile, I mean, yes, he's

257
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Speaker 1: somewhat of a good ball winner in the middle of

258
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Speaker 1: the pitch, but he can't pass like if you look

259
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Speaker 1: at it, think he's only a seventy five percent patch

260
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Speaker 1: completion rate for a midfielder like and he doesn't really

261
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Speaker 1: progress the ball going forward, so you obviously lose that.

262
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Speaker 1: So now who's gonna be progressing the ball? They brought

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Speaker 1: us Spitzer, who had obviously a terrible season last year.

264
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Speaker 1: I had to go on loan to Manchester United and

265
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Speaker 1: didn't really feature there, So how good is he going

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Speaker 1: to be? So they basically just took half of the

267
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Speaker 1: belling him money and spent it on those two players,

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Speaker 1: and they can't even make up for, you know, half

269
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Speaker 1: of what he has done for them. So yes, I

270
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Speaker 1: agree with you. He's probably one of my bigger bets

271
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Speaker 1: as well. It's going to be live stiging essentially over

272
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Speaker 1: winner without Byron at plus three five, yeah, you know.

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Speaker 2: And Dormant will score goals, yeah, Bront of course. And

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Speaker 2: Royce if they can never keep Royce healthy for you know,

275
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Speaker 2: more than a few minutes a year, they're going into score.

276
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Speaker 2: But I think this defense is really scary right now

277
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Speaker 2: in the midfield, especially like there are no ball winners

278
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Speaker 2: in this team. Emory Choan going into his age twenty

279
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Speaker 2: nine season, is the best ball winner and they only

280
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Speaker 2: got twenty one nineties out of him, so you know,

281
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Speaker 2: he missed forty five percent of the season. I think that,

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Speaker 2: you know, there's they lose Modahu, who wasn't really a

283
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Speaker 2: factor last year but could have been. You know, he leaves,

284
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Speaker 2: so there's not a lot of midfield ball winning here

285
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Speaker 2: and the defense. You know, we've we've had this conversation

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Speaker 2: about Dortmund so many times. There was a brief period

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Speaker 2: where they were more conservative, but they have turned up

288
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Speaker 2: the dial again and are now kind of back to

289
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Speaker 2: old dormant.

290
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Speaker 1: Yeah. And then you obviously look at their attack Hall

291
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Speaker 1: Air and Doniel Malan up top. You can make the

292
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Speaker 1: argument that Arviy Leipsig is way better than them at

293
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Speaker 1: the striker positions. So we've basically just broke it down

294
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Speaker 1: that that Leipzig is better an attack in a midfield

295
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Speaker 1: and defense than Dortmount and yet they're still sitting at

296
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Speaker 1: this price. So this is one of our favorite bets.

297
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Speaker 1: But let's move on because love to talk relegation here

298
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Speaker 1: in the Bundesliga. And you, Anthony, I don't know why

299
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Speaker 1: you're doing this. You're betting your back to be relegated.

300
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Speaker 2: I hinted at this in the spring. I don't know

301
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Speaker 2: if you guys remember I kind of dropped it as

302
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Speaker 2: like this team could be in real serious trouble. I

303
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Speaker 2: think it was after they got housed by Dortmund five

304
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Speaker 2: to two. But this team has really lost a lot

305
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Speaker 2: of talent and they have not done much to replace it.

306
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Speaker 2: Marcus Taram leaves he's at Intern now, Lars Stendal leaves

307
00:15:34,520 --> 00:15:38,160
Speaker 2: you on his Hoffmann leaves, Remy Benza Baiini leaves, and

308
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Speaker 2: for my money, that's three of the four best players

309
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Speaker 2: on the team, maybe five with Taram, Hoffman and Benza Baiini.

310
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Speaker 2: Manucone is still there. He's their best player. He's the midfielder,

311
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Speaker 2: young guy twenty one years old, had an impressive season

312
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Speaker 2: last year, but again like he's not offering a ton

313
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Speaker 2: in terms of possession. It's a lot of ball winning,

314
00:15:57,840 --> 00:16:01,960
Speaker 2: not a lot of forward attack, and they have not

315
00:16:02,200 --> 00:16:05,880
Speaker 2: really replaced anyone to the level that I feel confident.

316
00:16:06,400 --> 00:16:10,160
Speaker 2: You know, Thomas Caansera is the name that they brought

317
00:16:10,160 --> 00:16:13,200
Speaker 2: into score goals. He was in the Czech League. He

318
00:16:13,280 --> 00:16:16,160
Speaker 2: had a decent season there, but it's the Czech league

319
00:16:16,160 --> 00:16:18,520
Speaker 2: and he's going up to the Bundesliga now at age

320
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Speaker 2: twenty two, and I just don't really know what they're

321
00:16:21,480 --> 00:16:23,440
Speaker 2: going to expect from him like transfer market Value doesn't

322
00:16:23,520 --> 00:16:25,200
Speaker 2: think it was like a huge move. They went out

323
00:16:25,200 --> 00:16:28,960
Speaker 2: and found this gem that nobody had heard of, so

324
00:16:29,360 --> 00:16:33,080
Speaker 2: that was a lot of lost attacking production. We know

325
00:16:33,120 --> 00:16:38,040
Speaker 2: that defensive issues. Farca is gone. They bring in Gerard Soani,

326
00:16:38,080 --> 00:16:39,960
Speaker 2: who had been at Young Boys and was okay there,

327
00:16:40,240 --> 00:16:43,160
Speaker 2: went to le Rakuzen, wasn't very good there, got sacked

328
00:16:43,160 --> 00:16:46,720
Speaker 2: pretty quickly. They lost sixty two of their ninety one

329
00:16:46,760 --> 00:16:50,560
Speaker 2: goal involvements from last season and they've replaced him with

330
00:16:50,720 --> 00:16:53,960
Speaker 2: like one guy. So I think that thirty three to one.

331
00:16:54,000 --> 00:16:56,320
Speaker 2: If you look at the board, there's four teams that

332
00:16:56,360 --> 00:16:58,680
Speaker 2: I think are clearly worse than everybody else, and it's

333
00:16:58,720 --> 00:17:03,440
Speaker 2: the two newly promoted side Darnstat Heidenheim, and then the

334
00:17:03,440 --> 00:17:05,480
Speaker 2: two teams that probably should have gone down last year

335
00:17:05,480 --> 00:17:08,359
Speaker 2: but didn't in Bokum and Ausburg. After that, it's a

336
00:17:08,400 --> 00:17:13,240
Speaker 2: pretty small gap. Like Verde, Bremen has made some real

337
00:17:13,280 --> 00:17:15,160
Speaker 2: improvements this year in the midfield, I think they're gonna

338
00:17:15,160 --> 00:17:18,800
Speaker 2: be okay. Like we talk about the next couple of

339
00:17:18,880 --> 00:17:21,719
Speaker 2: teams like Stuttgart had a better XG difference than Gladenbach,

340
00:17:23,160 --> 00:17:27,600
Speaker 2: Freiburg Wolfsburg unon mines like I think they're all on

341
00:17:27,640 --> 00:17:30,639
Speaker 2: paper right now better than god Boch. So then like

342
00:17:30,720 --> 00:17:34,879
Speaker 2: there's only Hoffenheim, who I know you're down on in Cologne,

343
00:17:34,880 --> 00:17:37,240
Speaker 2: who did quietly lose a ton this summer. Like that,

344
00:17:37,240 --> 00:17:40,720
Speaker 2: that's pretty much it. So like they're probably not getting relegated.

345
00:17:40,760 --> 00:17:42,840
Speaker 2: They're thirty three to one for a reason. But there's

346
00:17:42,880 --> 00:17:46,160
Speaker 2: a world where if this attack really struggles early, they

347
00:17:46,160 --> 00:17:48,280
Speaker 2: get pulled into that bottom five and they're in a

348
00:17:48,280 --> 00:17:50,480
Speaker 2: scrap by the end of the season for relegation and

349
00:17:50,920 --> 00:17:54,040
Speaker 2: they don't have money. They are broke, so it's a

350
00:17:54,040 --> 00:17:56,399
Speaker 2: tough situation. They let a lot of guys leave for free. Also,

351
00:17:56,480 --> 00:17:59,680
Speaker 2: Yon Sommer was an excellent shot stopper in the first half.

352
00:18:00,480 --> 00:18:02,760
Speaker 2: He left, and the shot stopping was negative in the

353
00:18:02,760 --> 00:18:05,320
Speaker 2: second and they had a minus point two to six

354
00:18:05,960 --> 00:18:08,119
Speaker 2: actually difference per ninety in the second half of the season.

355
00:18:08,160 --> 00:18:11,399
Speaker 2: So look, I love the Foals, and I you know,

356
00:18:11,440 --> 00:18:13,440
Speaker 2: I miss Marco and I miss us being a top

357
00:18:13,440 --> 00:18:16,000
Speaker 2: four contender, but we are closer to relegation than top

358
00:18:16,040 --> 00:18:19,919
Speaker 2: half right now. So I'm betting the fullest to fold

359
00:18:21,040 --> 00:18:21,720
Speaker 2: thirty three one.

360
00:18:22,640 --> 00:18:24,080
Speaker 1: It's sad it is.

361
00:18:24,520 --> 00:18:26,880
Speaker 2: We're still gonna bet them by the way against Bayron, Oh, of.

362
00:18:26,800 --> 00:18:29,160
Speaker 1: Course, yeah, we know. That's yeah, that's kind.

363
00:18:29,000 --> 00:18:31,600
Speaker 2: I'll be a win. That might be the six points

364
00:18:31,600 --> 00:18:32,399
Speaker 2: that keeps us up.

365
00:18:32,880 --> 00:18:35,399
Speaker 1: Well, Anthony, I'm gonna need them. So he had all

366
00:18:35,440 --> 00:18:37,840
Speaker 1: three points in match week one against the team that

367
00:18:37,840 --> 00:18:40,439
Speaker 1: I'm betting for relegation. It's a team that's been in

368
00:18:40,440 --> 00:18:43,240
Speaker 1: a thorn in my side going on three years now.

369
00:18:43,960 --> 00:18:48,359
Speaker 1: It's Augsburg. This club. So last season, if you go

370
00:18:48,359 --> 00:18:51,520
Speaker 1: back to last season, the year before that, they had

371
00:18:51,760 --> 00:18:54,560
Speaker 1: just a crazy horrible expected goal diffrenchial maybe one of

372
00:18:54,600 --> 00:18:56,760
Speaker 1: the worst in the league, but they somehow survived. They

373
00:18:56,840 --> 00:18:58,919
Speaker 1: go into last season and they were even money favorites

374
00:18:58,960 --> 00:19:02,040
Speaker 1: to be relegated because Shaalka and Vertebremen were coming up

375
00:19:02,080 --> 00:19:05,000
Speaker 1: from the Second Division. Those are big clubs. The market

376
00:19:05,040 --> 00:19:06,879
Speaker 1: clearly knew that they were going to be better than

377
00:19:06,920 --> 00:19:10,320
Speaker 1: what Augsburg had. Now they're sitting at plus two twenty

378
00:19:10,320 --> 00:19:13,000
Speaker 1: five to be relegated. And the reason for that is

379
00:19:13,000 --> 00:19:16,240
Speaker 1: is the two teams coming up in Darmstadt and Heidenheim

380
00:19:16,560 --> 00:19:18,320
Speaker 1: were not the best teams in the Second Division. They

381
00:19:18,320 --> 00:19:21,600
Speaker 1: were more around like point three five point three actually

382
00:19:21,640 --> 00:19:23,719
Speaker 1: differential per ninety there was about two or three teams

383
00:19:23,920 --> 00:19:26,600
Speaker 1: that were better than them in the second division, so

384
00:19:27,680 --> 00:19:29,680
Speaker 1: that I think is going to create a little bit

385
00:19:29,680 --> 00:19:33,840
Speaker 1: of value here. On Augsburg. We relegated last season minus

386
00:19:34,040 --> 00:19:39,199
Speaker 1: twenty four expected goal differential, second worst in the Bundesliga

387
00:19:39,359 --> 00:19:42,040
Speaker 1: to only Bochum, who is short at a shorter price

388
00:19:42,080 --> 00:19:44,359
Speaker 1: in this market. So that's why I'm not betting them.

389
00:19:44,680 --> 00:19:49,639
Speaker 1: But Augsburg is just a completely inept offensive team. In

390
00:19:49,680 --> 00:19:52,560
Speaker 1: the highest scoring league in Europe, where teams are putting

391
00:19:52,600 --> 00:19:55,919
Speaker 1: up three four goals sometimes per match, teams like Byron

392
00:19:56,000 --> 00:20:00,240
Speaker 1: and Dormound, Augsburg averaged just one point zero two goals

393
00:20:00,280 --> 00:20:02,960
Speaker 1: per ninety minutes. They were way too reliant on scoring

394
00:20:02,960 --> 00:20:05,560
Speaker 1: off set pieces. They averaged the fewest shots per ninety

395
00:20:05,920 --> 00:20:07,879
Speaker 1: they had the second longest average shot and they had

396
00:20:07,920 --> 00:20:10,919
Speaker 1: the second longest average shot distance. They did nothing in

397
00:20:10,960 --> 00:20:14,080
Speaker 1: the transfer market to improve their attack whatsoever, and obviously

398
00:20:14,080 --> 00:20:16,040
Speaker 1: they sold Ricardo Peppy, who was on loan last season

399
00:20:16,080 --> 00:20:19,520
Speaker 1: the Air Debisi, so that obviously doesn't matter. But then

400
00:20:19,560 --> 00:20:23,800
Speaker 1: defensively they conceded the third most expected goals they conceded.

401
00:20:23,840 --> 00:20:25,960
Speaker 1: They were conceding close to two big scoring chances per

402
00:20:26,040 --> 00:20:29,320
Speaker 1: ninety which was the most in the Bundesliga and they

403
00:20:29,359 --> 00:20:32,199
Speaker 1: conceded the most shots per ninety I do not know

404
00:20:32,240 --> 00:20:34,560
Speaker 1: how this team stayed up. It was just some type

405
00:20:34,600 --> 00:20:36,720
Speaker 1: of Houdini magic. Here and there. They get a couple

406
00:20:36,800 --> 00:20:41,479
Speaker 1: of results and it just keeps them up. But they

407
00:20:41,520 --> 00:20:44,120
Speaker 1: have the hardest schedule to open the season of any

408
00:20:44,119 --> 00:20:46,840
Speaker 1: team in the Bundesliga. Per opta. They start off at

409
00:20:46,840 --> 00:20:48,880
Speaker 1: home against Kladbach, who you just mentioned. Then they got

410
00:20:48,880 --> 00:20:50,720
Speaker 1: to go to Buyer and they played Bocum. They they

411
00:20:50,760 --> 00:20:54,360
Speaker 1: got two Leipzig, Minz and Freiburg. Like that is a

412
00:20:54,400 --> 00:20:57,920
Speaker 1: really really tough schedule outside of maybe Bochum to open

413
00:20:57,960 --> 00:21:01,400
Speaker 1: the season for this team. They really could get off

414
00:21:01,400 --> 00:21:03,720
Speaker 1: to a really bad start and start bottoming out pretty bad.

415
00:21:03,760 --> 00:21:05,959
Speaker 1: And like already mentioned the other two newly commoted teams

416
00:21:06,800 --> 00:21:10,560
Speaker 1: along with Bochum and Augsburg, that's clear four worst teams.

417
00:21:11,280 --> 00:21:13,760
Speaker 1: And then we you know the Bundesliga works if you're

418
00:21:13,760 --> 00:21:15,960
Speaker 1: obviously new to this, is that the bottom two teams

419
00:21:16,000 --> 00:21:19,000
Speaker 1: get relegated and then the seventeenth place team plays a

420
00:21:19,080 --> 00:21:22,679
Speaker 1: night relegation playoff against the third place team in the

421
00:21:22,720 --> 00:21:25,919
Speaker 1: second division in Germany, So it's.

422
00:21:25,760 --> 00:21:28,560
Speaker 2: Gonna be Hamburger again, and they're gonna lose again Hamburger.

423
00:21:28,200 --> 00:21:29,920
Speaker 1: Again, I know, and they're gonna get routed like seven

424
00:21:29,960 --> 00:21:34,560
Speaker 1: to nothing. I'm gonna keep betting this team to be

425
00:21:34,600 --> 00:21:38,639
Speaker 1: relegated like they if they they continually are just putting

426
00:21:38,680 --> 00:21:42,240
Speaker 1: up these horrible, horrible underlying numbers, and eventually it's gonna

427
00:21:42,280 --> 00:21:45,400
Speaker 1: catch up with them, Anthony, eventually, and I hope it's

428
00:21:45,440 --> 00:21:47,360
Speaker 1: this season at plus two twenty five.

429
00:21:48,040 --> 00:21:50,880
Speaker 2: I don't disagree a huge luck box rely a ton

430
00:21:51,040 --> 00:21:54,200
Speaker 2: on just like pulling off these remarkably good counters. That

431
00:21:54,280 --> 00:21:56,520
Speaker 2: they are the worst possession team. They have the lowest

432
00:21:56,520 --> 00:21:59,680
Speaker 2: pass completion rate by multiple percentage points. Like they are horrible,

433
00:22:00,600 --> 00:22:02,679
Speaker 2: but you know, they get these home dog spots and

434
00:22:02,720 --> 00:22:04,560
Speaker 2: they always find a couple of wins and they know

435
00:22:05,000 --> 00:22:07,679
Speaker 2: it is enough. And I are they home against Gludback?

436
00:22:07,680 --> 00:22:08,400
Speaker 2: Are they at gloud Black?

437
00:22:08,440 --> 00:22:09,680
Speaker 1: They're at home against clad Back.

438
00:22:09,960 --> 00:22:11,359
Speaker 2: Yeah, so they're going to be a big dog and

439
00:22:11,359 --> 00:22:12,320
Speaker 2: they're going to win that match.

440
00:22:13,440 --> 00:22:17,920
Speaker 1: We'll see one other thing. I also, uh, just before

441
00:22:17,920 --> 00:22:19,919
Speaker 1: we get out of here, bet through sixty five has

442
00:22:19,960 --> 00:22:22,399
Speaker 1: some other markets in terms of like player total goals

443
00:22:22,480 --> 00:22:25,760
Speaker 1: or player assists that you know, you guys can check out.

444
00:22:25,800 --> 00:22:29,119
Speaker 1: One thing I liked from those was Kimmich to have

445
00:22:29,200 --> 00:22:32,119
Speaker 1: ten or more assists at plus one sixty three, I

446
00:22:32,119 --> 00:22:35,800
Speaker 1: mean last season he was close to about about seven

447
00:22:35,920 --> 00:22:39,320
Speaker 1: or eight expected assists. He had most passes into the

448
00:22:39,320 --> 00:22:42,480
Speaker 1: penalty area and the most progressive passes of anybody in

449
00:22:42,480 --> 00:22:44,560
Speaker 1: the boat. It's like good by a pretty wide margin.

450
00:22:44,640 --> 00:22:46,800
Speaker 1: And obviously Byron is going to get a ton of goals.

451
00:22:46,840 --> 00:22:48,800
Speaker 1: So if he continues to put up those type of

452
00:22:48,800 --> 00:22:50,760
Speaker 1: passing numbers, he's still going to be starting every single

453
00:22:50,800 --> 00:22:52,840
Speaker 1: match in the middle of the pitch. And Byron obviously

454
00:22:52,880 --> 00:22:55,240
Speaker 1: has so much attacking talent around him. So getting that

455
00:22:55,359 --> 00:22:58,159
Speaker 1: at a plus money I think is a decent price.

456
00:22:59,240 --> 00:23:01,800
Speaker 2: Yeah, Osburg is barely a dog. I thought i'd get

457
00:23:01,800 --> 00:23:03,399
Speaker 2: a half a goal. You're not even gonna get that,

458
00:23:03,520 --> 00:23:06,280
Speaker 2: so I have to run my numbers still. We have

459
00:23:06,320 --> 00:23:09,320
Speaker 2: a week until we're in the Bundesliga season. But that

460
00:23:09,400 --> 00:23:11,680
Speaker 2: total is at three. I think it's a little high.

461
00:23:11,760 --> 00:23:14,080
Speaker 2: I have to look at it. But we'll stay tuned

462
00:23:14,080 --> 00:23:18,359
Speaker 2: for next week's episode. We'll talk about Ausburg next weekend.

463
00:23:18,440 --> 00:23:19,440
Speaker 2: But that is interesting.

464
00:23:19,840 --> 00:23:21,880
Speaker 1: That is a good reminder is that our our match

465
00:23:21,880 --> 00:23:25,840
Speaker 1: week one pod for the Premier League, La Liga and

466
00:23:25,960 --> 00:23:31,120
Speaker 1: League gun will be out Thursday. Exciting times. All right,

467
00:23:31,200 --> 00:23:35,000
Speaker 1: let's move on. That was Germany. Let's move on to

468
00:23:35,000 --> 00:23:39,240
Speaker 1: Italy and Syria. A one of the you know, looking

469
00:23:39,280 --> 00:23:43,360
Speaker 1: at the futures market, this is honestly one of the

470
00:23:43,440 --> 00:23:47,520
Speaker 1: tighter races that we have in terms of who's going

471
00:23:47,520 --> 00:23:49,560
Speaker 1: to win the league, because obviously Napoli is coming off

472
00:23:49,560 --> 00:23:52,639
Speaker 1: their first title in over thirty years. But we start

473
00:23:52,680 --> 00:23:58,160
Speaker 1: off with Inter. Who is your favorite? They are sitting

474
00:23:58,160 --> 00:24:01,400
Speaker 1: at plus one seventy five. NAPLE League is three to one,

475
00:24:01,680 --> 00:24:06,919
Speaker 1: Juventus is a little over three to one, ac Milan

476
00:24:07,000 --> 00:24:10,280
Speaker 1: five to one, Roma eleven to one, Lazio fourteen to one,

477
00:24:10,359 --> 00:24:14,639
Speaker 1: Adolanta twenty eight to one, Fiorentina eighty to one, Manza's

478
00:24:14,680 --> 00:24:17,000
Speaker 1: one hundred and fifty to one, to Reno two hundred

479
00:24:17,000 --> 00:24:21,400
Speaker 1: and fifty to one, Udinesse, Cesuolo, Bologna, they're all five

480
00:24:21,480 --> 00:24:27,720
Speaker 1: hundred to one. Salernitana, Cagliari, welcome back, Frosty, don Leche

481
00:24:27,960 --> 00:24:33,920
Speaker 1: and Pole, Verona and Genoa are all a thousand to one.

482
00:24:35,520 --> 00:24:39,080
Speaker 1: I you know, Anthony, I don't really think there's this

483
00:24:39,160 --> 00:24:43,879
Speaker 1: is really hard because we were talking before that the

484
00:24:43,920 --> 00:24:46,240
Speaker 1: price on Napoli isn't good enough for me. I really

485
00:24:46,240 --> 00:24:48,280
Speaker 1: think they probably should be the favorite here to win

486
00:24:48,320 --> 00:24:50,360
Speaker 1: it again. They put up the best on the metrics

487
00:24:50,400 --> 00:24:53,399
Speaker 1: of anybody. Yes, they lose kim Minjay, but they kept Oshman,

488
00:24:53,440 --> 00:24:57,400
Speaker 1: they kept Kavar Scalia. They are still in my mind

489
00:24:57,480 --> 00:24:59,960
Speaker 1: the best team in this league. But I don't know

490
00:25:00,080 --> 00:25:01,439
Speaker 1: if we can lay out a price of three to

491
00:25:01,440 --> 00:25:02,760
Speaker 1: one to win the league.

492
00:25:04,680 --> 00:25:07,000
Speaker 2: Well, I think it depends on what you think of

493
00:25:07,680 --> 00:25:10,720
Speaker 2: Juventus and Milan and like how reasonably in the race

494
00:25:10,760 --> 00:25:15,879
Speaker 2: are they. I personally have seen nothing from Alega Juventus

495
00:25:15,960 --> 00:25:17,600
Speaker 2: that makes me think that they're about to mount a

496
00:25:17,600 --> 00:25:20,400
Speaker 2: big title charge. Obviously they had last year. They had

497
00:25:20,400 --> 00:25:25,600
Speaker 2: the the issues regarding the transfer stuff and then they

498
00:25:25,600 --> 00:25:27,560
Speaker 2: lost points, they got docked and they were not in

499
00:25:27,560 --> 00:25:31,199
Speaker 2: Europe as a result. But even their underlying metrics, I mean,

500
00:25:31,200 --> 00:25:33,679
Speaker 2: they were plus point three six x g per ninety

501
00:25:34,680 --> 00:25:37,960
Speaker 2: with Valovich. They may lose Valovich between now and the

502
00:25:38,040 --> 00:25:40,680
Speaker 2: end of the transfer window. He's rumored to be linked

503
00:25:40,680 --> 00:25:44,199
Speaker 2: a couple places as potential move away. And then you

504
00:25:44,280 --> 00:25:48,000
Speaker 2: just like look around and this team, there's nothing in

505
00:25:48,000 --> 00:25:49,960
Speaker 2: their profile that makes me think that they're about to

506
00:25:50,280 --> 00:25:53,760
Speaker 2: figure some things out. They were extremely passive off the ball.

507
00:25:54,320 --> 00:25:56,480
Speaker 2: They dropped very deep and allowed a ton of bad

508
00:25:56,600 --> 00:25:59,720
Speaker 2: will quality shots and it worked because Cheesney had a really,

509
00:25:59,760 --> 00:26:03,720
Speaker 2: really good shot stopping season, and they benefited from him,

510
00:26:03,920 --> 00:26:06,760
Speaker 2: you know, saving the defense from what was a pretty

511
00:26:06,760 --> 00:26:10,560
Speaker 2: mediocre defensive unit. I just don't really think they can

512
00:26:10,600 --> 00:26:14,280
Speaker 2: rely on that again. And the result speak for themselves.

513
00:26:14,320 --> 00:26:16,280
Speaker 2: I mean when they played inter A Napoli, they were

514
00:26:16,359 --> 00:26:19,600
Speaker 2: largely outclassed. I think the interesting thing is the market

515
00:26:19,640 --> 00:26:23,920
Speaker 2: thinks Enters better than Napoli. I don't really show a

516
00:26:24,000 --> 00:26:26,160
Speaker 2: huge difference between the two teams. I have Napoli better.

517
00:26:26,240 --> 00:26:28,359
Speaker 2: I think it depends on how you kind of grade

518
00:26:28,440 --> 00:26:32,280
Speaker 2: Napoli because Napolis season was weird. They had this incredible

519
00:26:32,280 --> 00:26:35,760
Speaker 2: dominant run. They won the league going away because they

520
00:26:35,760 --> 00:26:37,880
Speaker 2: had two breakouts at the exact same time from two

521
00:26:37,880 --> 00:26:41,439
Speaker 2: superstar players who for my money are top fifteen players

522
00:26:41,480 --> 00:26:44,359
Speaker 2: in Europe, and then they kind of just coasted. I mean,

523
00:26:44,359 --> 00:26:47,399
Speaker 2: once they won the league, they kind of just took

524
00:26:47,560 --> 00:26:49,280
Speaker 2: the rest of the season off and they had that

525
00:26:49,320 --> 00:26:53,680
Speaker 2: poor Champions League run. But remember it beat Uventus one

526
00:26:53,840 --> 00:27:00,159
Speaker 2: nil a match Week thirty one, and then the lastlast

527
00:27:00,200 --> 00:27:03,359
Speaker 2: month of the season, they drew Sowernitana, drew UDNESSI lost

528
00:27:03,400 --> 00:27:07,919
Speaker 2: to Manza, drew Bologna, drew Sapdoria, beat Fiorentino one nil,

529
00:27:08,359 --> 00:27:10,360
Speaker 2: still beat Into three one, and then that was after

530
00:27:10,400 --> 00:27:12,000
Speaker 2: they went out of the Champions League. Once they went

531
00:27:12,000 --> 00:27:13,720
Speaker 2: out of the Champions League, the season was kind of over.

532
00:27:13,760 --> 00:27:15,399
Speaker 2: And it's not like they were that much worse than

533
00:27:16,040 --> 00:27:18,080
Speaker 2: then Milan in that Champions League time. They couldn't stop

534
00:27:18,119 --> 00:27:20,720
Speaker 2: Leao in the first leg and then the second leg.

535
00:27:20,760 --> 00:27:25,080
Speaker 2: It was some bad finishing variants. So do we think

536
00:27:25,119 --> 00:27:26,520
Speaker 2: they got figured out or do we think they just

537
00:27:26,520 --> 00:27:28,480
Speaker 2: stopped caring. I think it's a whole lot more of

538
00:27:29,320 --> 00:27:31,480
Speaker 2: we kind of just gave up a little bit, and

539
00:27:31,520 --> 00:27:33,120
Speaker 2: you can see it in the possession numbers, the ball

540
00:27:33,160 --> 00:27:36,840
Speaker 2: winning numbers, like they just kind of coasted. And if

541
00:27:36,840 --> 00:27:39,040
Speaker 2: they go again, I think there's still a lot better

542
00:27:39,080 --> 00:27:42,560
Speaker 2: than most of this league. And so inter you know

543
00:27:42,640 --> 00:27:44,960
Speaker 2: what they do this summer. They get Yon summer in,

544
00:27:45,000 --> 00:27:48,400
Speaker 2: they lose Onana. It's probably a net negative. I love Yan,

545
00:27:48,560 --> 00:27:51,120
Speaker 2: but he's not as good with his feet as Onana.

546
00:27:52,000 --> 00:27:57,120
Speaker 2: They get tam In and they lose h Echo Lukaku's

547
00:27:57,160 --> 00:28:00,280
Speaker 2: status remains very up in the air, Like there's there's

548
00:28:00,280 --> 00:28:03,240
Speaker 2: a shortage of goals in this inter team right now,

549
00:28:04,200 --> 00:28:06,480
Speaker 2: and I think that's going to cost them. Broseovich leaves,

550
00:28:06,480 --> 00:28:09,000
Speaker 2: they bring in a new defensive midfield or twenty one

551
00:28:09,080 --> 00:28:12,520
Speaker 2: year old kid, but I think there's a lot more

552
00:28:12,600 --> 00:28:16,280
Speaker 2: uncertainty with them than there is with this Napoli team.

553
00:28:16,400 --> 00:28:19,800
Speaker 2: So I think I would make Napoli a favorite if

554
00:28:19,800 --> 00:28:22,119
Speaker 2: you can find like a head to head market, I

555
00:28:22,119 --> 00:28:23,720
Speaker 2: would do that. If I have to make a bet here, though,

556
00:28:23,720 --> 00:28:25,080
Speaker 2: it's going to be Napoly three to one for me,

557
00:28:25,119 --> 00:28:29,040
Speaker 2: because I really don't think that there's a huge difference

558
00:28:32,720 --> 00:28:34,600
Speaker 2: or a huge threat from below the table, like I

559
00:28:34,600 --> 00:28:37,560
Speaker 2: don't really see you or Milan pushing up into the

560
00:28:37,560 --> 00:28:39,920
Speaker 2: top range. I think Milan still doesn't really have a striker,

561
00:28:41,160 --> 00:28:45,040
Speaker 2: and their midfield's kind of taking a step back. They

562
00:28:45,080 --> 00:28:47,840
Speaker 2: lose Tonali, you know, they don't really get a ton

563
00:28:47,880 --> 00:28:50,800
Speaker 2: from Diquittalare, so there are some question marks there. Roma

564
00:28:50,920 --> 00:28:52,920
Speaker 2: is still Roma, like they're not really a league threat

565
00:28:52,960 --> 00:28:56,320
Speaker 2: for me. They're more of a fortunately Europa League again,

566
00:28:56,880 --> 00:29:00,520
Speaker 2: you go again type team. Although they're top four odds

567
00:29:00,520 --> 00:29:04,120
Speaker 2: are intriguing me once again. Yeah, Lozzio loses surgame and

568
00:29:04,160 --> 00:29:07,000
Speaker 2: link if at Savage, who is like the best player

569
00:29:07,040 --> 00:29:10,200
Speaker 2: in the world relative to their team. Yep, and they

570
00:29:10,200 --> 00:29:11,960
Speaker 2: were old as hell last year, one of the oldest

571
00:29:11,960 --> 00:29:14,400
Speaker 2: teams in Europe. I'm expecting a lot of regression for them.

572
00:29:14,440 --> 00:29:16,800
Speaker 2: Two straight years of sorry ball where they just run

573
00:29:16,880 --> 00:29:19,640
Speaker 2: like gods cost us a shit ton of money. I

574
00:29:19,680 --> 00:29:23,200
Speaker 2: don't think they pull that off again. Fiorentina is really interesting. Yeah,

575
00:29:23,240 --> 00:29:26,880
Speaker 2: Atalanta loses holand don't really have a ton of interest

576
00:29:27,520 --> 00:29:30,480
Speaker 2: in them. It feels like they're just kind of parenthically

577
00:29:30,520 --> 00:29:33,320
Speaker 2: stuck on the periphery of the top four. But you

578
00:29:33,360 --> 00:29:36,160
Speaker 2: have interest in Florentina, who may or may not keep

579
00:29:36,280 --> 00:29:38,560
Speaker 2: Sophia on amerbat We still don't know the status of

580
00:29:38,560 --> 00:29:42,120
Speaker 2: his potential move to met United. We love them in

581
00:29:42,160 --> 00:29:44,200
Speaker 2: the Conference League, we bet them. I feel like week

582
00:29:44,200 --> 00:29:46,800
Speaker 2: to week a lot in Italy last year, But why

583
00:29:46,800 --> 00:29:48,240
Speaker 2: are you betting Fiorentina this year?

584
00:29:48,800 --> 00:29:51,800
Speaker 1: And really it comes down to the Cisco profile underlying metrics.

585
00:29:51,800 --> 00:29:53,840
Speaker 1: You know, they were one of the press pressing teams

586
00:29:53,880 --> 00:29:58,200
Speaker 1: in all of Italy. They did do some interesting transfer activity.

587
00:29:58,200 --> 00:30:02,040
Speaker 1: They brought an archer from you Ventus, who obviously hasn't

588
00:30:02,080 --> 00:30:03,880
Speaker 1: featured quite a bit lately. You know, he's been in

589
00:30:03,880 --> 00:30:08,680
Speaker 1: and out of form, went to Liverpool, got injured. But

590
00:30:09,560 --> 00:30:12,160
Speaker 1: if he can hit and he can find his old form,

591
00:30:12,560 --> 00:30:14,200
Speaker 1: then him along with Amrabat in the middle of the

592
00:30:14,200 --> 00:30:15,840
Speaker 1: pitch and then really this this bet is dependent on

593
00:30:15,880 --> 00:30:17,960
Speaker 1: Amberbat whether he stays or not. You know what's been

594
00:30:18,480 --> 00:30:21,320
Speaker 1: recently reported is United's trying to get the deal done,

595
00:30:22,160 --> 00:30:25,320
Speaker 1: but Amraerbet has also come out and said if he

596
00:30:25,840 --> 00:30:28,200
Speaker 1: stays at Fiorentina, he's fine with that, So he's not

597
00:30:28,320 --> 00:30:31,320
Speaker 1: necessarily demanding a move to Manchester United. If he stays,

598
00:30:31,320 --> 00:30:33,680
Speaker 1: he'll be one of the best central midfielders in Syria.

599
00:30:34,040 --> 00:30:37,720
Speaker 1: Fiorentina last season, you know plus eleven point seven expected

600
00:30:37,760 --> 00:30:41,000
Speaker 1: old difriendly that was only two worse than Juventus, was

601
00:30:41,080 --> 00:30:44,560
Speaker 1: better than Lazio. So when you're looking at this race

602
00:30:44,640 --> 00:30:48,000
Speaker 1: going for the top four, if you don't believe that

603
00:30:48,080 --> 00:30:51,360
Speaker 1: Lazio and Juventus are contenders, like we've already just mentioned,

604
00:30:51,880 --> 00:30:54,520
Speaker 1: are they significantly worse than a team like AC Milan

605
00:30:54,920 --> 00:30:58,200
Speaker 1: Roma or Atlanta, I'm not so sure. They're not gonna

606
00:30:58,240 --> 00:31:01,200
Speaker 1: be playing in Europe, so they won't have that added

607
00:31:01,200 --> 00:31:03,720
Speaker 1: pressure or those added matches, while all these other teams

608
00:31:03,720 --> 00:31:06,840
Speaker 1: are gonna have midweek matches that are gonna be really congested.

609
00:31:07,360 --> 00:31:09,480
Speaker 1: So if you're looking for that team from the outside

610
00:31:09,520 --> 00:31:12,640
Speaker 1: looking in that could maybe threaten that top four, I

611
00:31:12,800 --> 00:31:16,520
Speaker 1: Juarentina might be worth a look. I mean, there might

612
00:31:16,560 --> 00:31:18,520
Speaker 1: not be enough goals in this team. You know, they

613
00:31:18,560 --> 00:31:21,520
Speaker 1: have some decent attackers, you know, Jovich, Arthur Cabal and

614
00:31:21,600 --> 00:31:25,320
Speaker 1: Nico Gonzalez are all fun attackers. But really what it's

615
00:31:25,320 --> 00:31:27,640
Speaker 1: gonna come down to is if Orantina can continue to

616
00:31:27,640 --> 00:31:30,040
Speaker 1: put up some of these underlying metrics and some of

617
00:31:30,080 --> 00:31:32,760
Speaker 1: these pressing numbers that we've already seen and continued to

618
00:31:32,800 --> 00:31:36,040
Speaker 1: be a solid defensive team that barely allowed over one

619
00:31:36,040 --> 00:31:39,840
Speaker 1: expected goal in Syria last season, they could potentially threaten

620
00:31:40,320 --> 00:31:42,960
Speaker 1: Top four. So at a price of six to one

621
00:31:43,040 --> 00:31:46,760
Speaker 1: is interesting. I would like a bigger price, honestly, I

622
00:31:46,800 --> 00:31:48,600
Speaker 1: really would. I would like a you know, maybe a

623
00:31:48,640 --> 00:31:52,600
Speaker 1: seven or an eight to one. And you also mentioned Roma.

624
00:31:52,680 --> 00:31:55,680
Speaker 1: You know they're gonna be without Tammy Abraham for a

625
00:31:55,720 --> 00:31:57,800
Speaker 1: decent portion of the season after he got injured at

626
00:31:57,800 --> 00:31:59,440
Speaker 1: the end of last season and got I believe it

627
00:31:59,440 --> 00:32:01,880
Speaker 1: was a torneous Y else so, and they just lost

628
00:32:01,960 --> 00:32:04,760
Speaker 1: Roger Rabanyez to the Saudi League, so who knows that

629
00:32:04,800 --> 00:32:09,320
Speaker 1: the Jose at this point, And you know if outside

630
00:32:09,320 --> 00:32:11,120
Speaker 1: of Abraham, I mean, I don't think they're just going

631
00:32:11,160 --> 00:32:14,080
Speaker 1: to continue to rely on Diaballa to be, you know,

632
00:32:14,120 --> 00:32:16,360
Speaker 1: score that many goals. I'm not so sure with Rama.

633
00:32:16,400 --> 00:32:18,480
Speaker 1: So it's a very interesting top four race here. You know,

634
00:32:18,560 --> 00:32:21,480
Speaker 1: I really wish, Anthony, I really wish. I really wish

635
00:32:21,560 --> 00:32:23,480
Speaker 1: they gave us odds not to finish in the top

636
00:32:23,520 --> 00:32:25,720
Speaker 1: four because I would be running to the windows so

637
00:32:25,920 --> 00:32:28,680
Speaker 1: fast to BET Lazio and Juventus in this market. But

638
00:32:28,760 --> 00:32:31,720
Speaker 1: obviously in Syria, along with these other markets that we'll

639
00:32:31,720 --> 00:32:35,640
Speaker 1: talk about, they're just they're not as diverse as the

640
00:32:35,680 --> 00:32:37,480
Speaker 1: Premier League is, so we're kind of just stuck with

641
00:32:37,520 --> 00:32:41,000
Speaker 1: what we have. And honestly, Fiorantine is the only thing

642
00:32:41,000 --> 00:32:42,120
Speaker 1: that caught my eye on top four.

643
00:32:43,560 --> 00:32:45,720
Speaker 2: Yeah, I think we might we do another week until

644
00:32:45,720 --> 00:32:47,800
Speaker 2: we get to Syria. So maybe we get those markets

645
00:32:47,840 --> 00:32:49,560
Speaker 2: from BET three, six five in the next week or so,

646
00:32:49,680 --> 00:32:53,480
Speaker 2: because they do have them up for Bundesliga and and

647
00:32:53,520 --> 00:32:55,720
Speaker 2: a little bit more for Legan as well with those

648
00:32:55,720 --> 00:32:58,840
Speaker 2: two for La Liga and legan with those two starting

649
00:32:58,880 --> 00:33:00,520
Speaker 2: up this week, so maybe as we get a little

650
00:33:00,520 --> 00:33:04,280
Speaker 2: closer we get those markets. I generally agree like Fiorentina

651
00:33:04,320 --> 00:33:05,960
Speaker 2: had the field tilt numbers of a top four team

652
00:33:06,000 --> 00:33:08,640
Speaker 2: in Italy, they just didn't quite have the attacking output,

653
00:33:08,960 --> 00:33:11,880
Speaker 2: not quite good enough in the penalty area. Taliano's done

654
00:33:11,960 --> 00:33:15,440
Speaker 2: a hell of a job there, so you know they're

655
00:33:15,440 --> 00:33:18,040
Speaker 2: intriguing for sure. No Europe. I just think there's just

656
00:33:18,080 --> 00:33:22,360
Speaker 2: a huge kind of kaboodle of teams in the middle,

657
00:33:22,480 --> 00:33:24,120
Speaker 2: like a group of teams that I don't really know

658
00:33:24,160 --> 00:33:29,280
Speaker 2: what to make of. Between three and seven, I would

659
00:33:29,280 --> 00:33:33,120
Speaker 2: probably have Fiorentina right there with Lazzio. Lozzio falls down,

660
00:33:33,280 --> 00:33:35,720
Speaker 2: Fiorentina takes that spot, whereas ad a lot to fit in,

661
00:33:35,800 --> 00:33:37,880
Speaker 2: Like there's a lot to kind of parse through, and

662
00:33:37,920 --> 00:33:39,840
Speaker 2: this is a league that's not going to be decided early,

663
00:33:39,920 --> 00:33:42,440
Speaker 2: so I think we're going to get more time. I

664
00:33:42,480 --> 00:33:44,160
Speaker 2: don't you know, you don't have to rush to bet

665
00:33:44,200 --> 00:33:46,800
Speaker 2: futures before the season just because the season is starting.

666
00:33:47,920 --> 00:33:49,240
Speaker 2: Let's get a little bit of data on some of

667
00:33:49,280 --> 00:33:51,200
Speaker 2: these teams, see how things are progressing. Maybe wait for

668
00:33:51,200 --> 00:33:53,520
Speaker 2: the transfer window to close, so I have actually not

669
00:33:53,560 --> 00:33:56,800
Speaker 2: made a single bet in a Siria. The only ones

670
00:33:57,320 --> 00:34:01,560
Speaker 2: interested in Annapoli and Fiorentina again, you know, like you said,

671
00:34:01,600 --> 00:34:03,040
Speaker 2: we could fade lots, you know, more on a game

672
00:34:03,080 --> 00:34:05,920
Speaker 2: to game basis. I think losing SMS just so important

673
00:34:05,960 --> 00:34:07,640
Speaker 2: for them, and I think there's a lot of aggression looming.

674
00:34:07,640 --> 00:34:12,240
Speaker 2: But I am not that excited about kind of betting

675
00:34:12,280 --> 00:34:14,480
Speaker 2: Italy preseason. I'm gonna wait and see what the market

676
00:34:14,480 --> 00:34:16,319
Speaker 2: and how the games start, and maybe if we can

677
00:34:16,320 --> 00:34:18,520
Speaker 2: get an early read on a team and figure it out,

678
00:34:18,560 --> 00:34:21,840
Speaker 2: because the relegation market's really tricky too. Emply was the

679
00:34:21,880 --> 00:34:23,640
Speaker 2: first team that jumped off the board. They lose their

680
00:34:23,640 --> 00:34:26,960
Speaker 2: goalie to Spurs. He had been a great shot stopper

681
00:34:27,640 --> 00:34:30,479
Speaker 2: and really a major reason why they were so able

682
00:34:30,520 --> 00:34:33,880
Speaker 2: to stay up despite pretty middling numbers. They could be

683
00:34:33,880 --> 00:34:35,879
Speaker 2: in real danger, but the market's kind of onto them too.

684
00:34:35,960 --> 00:34:40,480
Speaker 2: So yeah, it's a really interesting league. I love watching

685
00:34:40,520 --> 00:34:44,200
Speaker 2: Italy every Sunday, but in terms of betting, it no

686
00:34:44,320 --> 00:34:46,600
Speaker 2: real like huge you must run to the window and

687
00:34:46,600 --> 00:34:47,800
Speaker 2: bet this for me, and it's like.

688
00:34:49,040 --> 00:34:52,719
Speaker 1: I have one. You spoke about relegation and if you've

689
00:34:52,719 --> 00:34:55,520
Speaker 1: been listening to this podcast long enough, I think you

690
00:34:55,560 --> 00:35:00,000
Speaker 1: know where this conversation is going. Salarnyitanas plus two fifty

691
00:35:00,040 --> 00:35:04,000
Speaker 1: to be relegated. They are like the cutoff between the

692
00:35:04,080 --> 00:35:06,279
Speaker 1: bad teams and then the middle of the table where

693
00:35:06,320 --> 00:35:08,399
Speaker 1: you have the Bologna's, you know, those type of teams

694
00:35:08,440 --> 00:35:10,760
Speaker 1: that are all ten eleven to one. Really no interest

695
00:35:10,760 --> 00:35:16,399
Speaker 1: in them being relegated. Salernitana two years ago pulled off

696
00:35:16,400 --> 00:35:18,840
Speaker 1: in a great escape. You know, coming into that season

697
00:35:18,840 --> 00:35:21,680
Speaker 1: they had a negative negative expected gold differential in the

698
00:35:21,680 --> 00:35:25,960
Speaker 1: second Division Italy. They got off to the worst star possible.

699
00:35:25,960 --> 00:35:27,759
Speaker 1: They were sitting near the bottom of the table, wasn't

700
00:35:27,760 --> 00:35:33,520
Speaker 1: for Venezia, and they pulled off just an insane escape

701
00:35:34,040 --> 00:35:37,839
Speaker 1: just to barely eke out on the final day. Well,

702
00:35:37,880 --> 00:35:41,880
Speaker 1: now we get into last season, they survive pretty comfortably.

703
00:35:41,920 --> 00:35:44,160
Speaker 1: There were some really really bad teams last week, you know,

704
00:35:44,200 --> 00:35:46,840
Speaker 1: Kremenessa and Sampdoria where two of the two of the

705
00:35:46,920 --> 00:35:49,800
Speaker 1: worst Syria teams that we've seen in quite a long time.

706
00:35:50,719 --> 00:35:53,640
Speaker 1: You know, they had forty two points minus fourteen minus

707
00:35:53,640 --> 00:35:56,480
Speaker 1: fourteen goldiffrenchial. You know, on the surface, it looks like

708
00:35:56,480 --> 00:35:59,600
Speaker 1: oh okay, you know, fourteenth or fifteenth best team and

709
00:36:00,080 --> 00:36:04,520
Speaker 1: Syria whatever, who cares they survive? They had a minus

710
00:36:04,840 --> 00:36:09,960
Speaker 1: thirty point five expected goal differential. That's insane. They conceded

711
00:36:10,000 --> 00:36:13,440
Speaker 1: sixty seven point five expected goals in thirty eight matches.

712
00:36:14,480 --> 00:36:19,320
Speaker 1: What happened was is that they have a decent striker

713
00:36:19,320 --> 00:36:21,799
Speaker 1: in Bulaedea who overperformed his x G by what six

714
00:36:21,960 --> 00:36:24,720
Speaker 1: seven goals himself, along with a lot of other attackers

715
00:36:24,719 --> 00:36:31,280
Speaker 1: who drastically overperformed offensively, and for whatever reason, Memo Choa

716
00:36:31,640 --> 00:36:33,720
Speaker 1: just continues to be the greatest goalkeeper in the world

717
00:36:34,040 --> 00:36:36,520
Speaker 1: and just went too in the middle of the season.

718
00:36:36,880 --> 00:36:37,960
Speaker 1: You know, I ended up with it. He only ended

719
00:36:38,040 --> 00:36:40,280
Speaker 1: up with like a plus two post shat XG plus minus,

720
00:36:40,320 --> 00:36:41,839
Speaker 1: but a lot of that was because he gave up,

721
00:36:42,080 --> 00:36:44,120
Speaker 1: you know, eight goals to Adelanta, and like, you know,

722
00:36:44,160 --> 00:36:48,960
Speaker 1: what happens with Salernitana is they'll get these luckbox draws

723
00:36:49,000 --> 00:36:52,120
Speaker 1: against better teams and then you'll just see, like you know,

724
00:36:52,239 --> 00:36:55,640
Speaker 1: Adelanta or inter whoever, just pour like five six goals

725
00:36:55,680 --> 00:36:58,280
Speaker 1: past them and they continue to get these luck box draws,

726
00:36:58,360 --> 00:37:01,920
Speaker 1: luckbox wins, and that's that's what happens throughout the entire season.

727
00:37:02,560 --> 00:37:05,919
Speaker 1: But similar to the conversation with Augsburg in the Bundesliga.

728
00:37:07,160 --> 00:37:10,920
Speaker 1: Eventually you're going to regress to what your expected numbers

729
00:37:10,960 --> 00:37:14,440
Speaker 1: are and you're smiling at me. Eventually they're going to

730
00:37:14,440 --> 00:37:16,120
Speaker 1: get relegated, Anthony. And if you look at the teams

731
00:37:16,120 --> 00:37:17,279
Speaker 1: coming up, I mean we have a couple of big

732
00:37:17,280 --> 00:37:19,560
Speaker 1: clubs coming up. Kagaliaris coming back there, a big club

733
00:37:19,600 --> 00:37:22,520
Speaker 1: Shenowa who was obviously going to mainstay in Syria a

734
00:37:22,719 --> 00:37:24,919
Speaker 1: for a long time. Frosty Nunn has been up here

735
00:37:24,960 --> 00:37:27,640
Speaker 1: a couple of times. You look at some of the

736
00:37:27,640 --> 00:37:31,399
Speaker 1: expected metrics from those teams, you know, Kagiliaria wasn't that great.

737
00:37:31,480 --> 00:37:34,080
Speaker 1: They had a by the way, they're they're a very

738
00:37:34,080 --> 00:37:38,799
Speaker 1: fun story because Claudio Ranieri basically pulled them from the

739
00:37:38,840 --> 00:37:43,160
Speaker 1: grave up into a playoff spot and got them into Syria.

740
00:37:43,400 --> 00:37:45,640
Speaker 1: But they didn't have great underlying metrics. But again, they're

741
00:37:45,680 --> 00:37:47,400
Speaker 1: a big club, They're able to spend a little bit

742
00:37:47,440 --> 00:37:48,000
Speaker 1: of money.

743
00:37:47,760 --> 00:37:49,560
Speaker 2: To get better and they're gonna stay up.

744
00:37:49,880 --> 00:37:52,399
Speaker 1: They're going to stay up exactly. Genowa and frost Nun

745
00:37:52,400 --> 00:37:54,880
Speaker 1: both head around a plus point seven actually differential for

746
00:37:55,000 --> 00:37:58,520
Speaker 1: ninety in the second division. Those are decent numbers, so

747
00:37:58,600 --> 00:38:01,040
Speaker 1: you compare that to what Sellerny did. These are not

748
00:38:02,120 --> 00:38:04,799
Speaker 1: teams like samp Door like Sampdoria was last season, who

749
00:38:04,920 --> 00:38:06,880
Speaker 1: just are gonna come up and quit like you know,

750
00:38:07,320 --> 00:38:11,640
Speaker 1: or even a Crimin Essay, who was god awful as well.

751
00:38:11,760 --> 00:38:14,440
Speaker 1: So eventually salary Ton is going to get relegated. And

752
00:38:14,440 --> 00:38:16,359
Speaker 1: now we're getting better and better prices. You know, they

753
00:38:16,360 --> 00:38:18,800
Speaker 1: were about minus one twenty de relegated in their first season.

754
00:38:18,840 --> 00:38:21,040
Speaker 1: They were about plus one fifty in the next season.

755
00:38:21,120 --> 00:38:24,560
Speaker 1: Now they're sitting at plus two fifty. That price is

756
00:38:24,600 --> 00:38:28,440
Speaker 1: crazy considering where their underlying numbers have been and how

757
00:38:28,480 --> 00:38:31,839
Speaker 1: bad they've been defensively. Memocho is gonna be thirty nine

758
00:38:31,920 --> 00:38:35,480
Speaker 1: years old. Maybe he'll just continue to be the best

759
00:38:35,480 --> 00:38:37,680
Speaker 1: goalkeeper in the world. I don't know. I don't think

760
00:38:37,680 --> 00:38:41,160
Speaker 1: Bulada can continue to overporm his expected metrics. But he

761
00:38:41,200 --> 00:38:44,440
Speaker 1: did it at ret he did at Reems, now.

762
00:38:44,239 --> 00:38:47,240
Speaker 2: He's gonna he did it against Is there a player

763
00:38:47,239 --> 00:38:48,840
Speaker 2: in the world that's cost you more money than the

764
00:38:48,840 --> 00:38:49,480
Speaker 2: bull idea?

765
00:38:49,800 --> 00:38:53,520
Speaker 1: Uh I Moobila is the easy answer to that question. Okay, yeah,

766
00:38:53,600 --> 00:38:55,960
Speaker 1: but besides Sam, yeah, no Bullada, because I remember he

767
00:38:56,000 --> 00:38:57,560
Speaker 1: missed a bunch of chances for via Real in the

768
00:38:57,640 --> 00:38:59,839
Speaker 1: Champions League too to send them home, and we had

769
00:38:59,840 --> 00:39:05,319
Speaker 1: that against Liverpool. But anyway, that's my only bet for

770
00:39:05,360 --> 00:39:09,640
Speaker 1: relegation again. You know, hopefully, you know, Anthony will have

771
00:39:09,680 --> 00:39:11,880
Speaker 1: the Syriap review up on the Action network dot com

772
00:39:11,920 --> 00:39:14,399
Speaker 1: you know before that season starts next week, so if

773
00:39:14,400 --> 00:39:16,359
Speaker 1: we get some more diverse markets, you know, we might

774
00:39:16,400 --> 00:39:17,880
Speaker 1: get some more odds there. But yeah, if we can

775
00:39:17,920 --> 00:39:19,759
Speaker 1: find a not to finish in the top four, I'll

776
00:39:19,800 --> 00:39:20,680
Speaker 1: be running so fast.

777
00:39:20,760 --> 00:39:23,799
Speaker 2: Bet Lotsio, I'll lay there's your Bayern Parley piece.

778
00:39:24,400 --> 00:39:25,160
Speaker 1: Oh, there we go.

779
00:39:25,280 --> 00:39:29,799
Speaker 2: That's Byron money Byron to win the Bundesliga, part with

780
00:39:30,400 --> 00:39:32,520
Speaker 2: partly with Latsio to finish top four. No, because you're

781
00:39:32,520 --> 00:39:34,800
Speaker 2: definitely laying a solid number against Lotsio.

782
00:39:35,200 --> 00:39:37,920
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean what I mean, they're you know, I

783
00:39:37,960 --> 00:39:41,120
Speaker 1: think they're about two pull two to one plus two

784
00:39:41,120 --> 00:39:42,719
Speaker 1: fifty to finish in the top four right now, So

785
00:39:42,719 --> 00:39:44,560
Speaker 1: you're probably gonna be laying around a minus you know,

786
00:39:44,560 --> 00:39:47,640
Speaker 1: three hundred or somewhere around there, so you can probably

787
00:39:47,800 --> 00:39:50,040
Speaker 1: hopefully get that down to elite to deeden price. But yeah,

788
00:39:50,040 --> 00:39:52,600
Speaker 1: how does that lose Anthony who knows. We'll find out

789
00:39:53,040 --> 00:39:55,160
Speaker 1: throughout the season. When I was last year, they lost

790
00:39:55,239 --> 00:40:01,000
Speaker 1: last year. That's true. All right, let's move on to Spain.

791
00:40:01,600 --> 00:40:03,560
Speaker 2: I'm excited for this one. This is an interesting I

792
00:40:03,560 --> 00:40:04,839
Speaker 2: don't very often about Spain.

793
00:40:04,880 --> 00:40:05,040
Speaker 1: I e.

794
00:40:05,160 --> 00:40:07,000
Speaker 2: Yeah, you know, because this league.

795
00:40:07,680 --> 00:40:10,040
Speaker 1: For me, Yeah, for me obviously. You know, if you're

796
00:40:10,280 --> 00:40:12,640
Speaker 1: if you're somebody who's new to wonder goal, you're somebody's

797
00:40:12,680 --> 00:40:16,240
Speaker 1: new t betting on soccer, new TI betting futures in soccer.

798
00:40:16,320 --> 00:40:20,759
Speaker 1: The the futures market in Spain is usually just a

799
00:40:20,760 --> 00:40:26,799
Speaker 1: two horse race. Right now, Real Madrid is your favorite

800
00:40:27,280 --> 00:40:31,640
Speaker 1: at even money, Barcelona is sitting at plus one thirty

801
00:40:31,719 --> 00:40:34,640
Speaker 1: eight at letty Co Madrid is nine to one. Then

802
00:40:34,680 --> 00:40:37,000
Speaker 1: there's a big drop off, soa Via thirty three to one,

803
00:40:37,080 --> 00:40:41,240
Speaker 1: Sociodad forty to one, via Real fifty to one, Athletic

804
00:40:41,320 --> 00:40:43,920
Speaker 1: Bilbao eighty to one, Real Betts one hundred to one.

805
00:40:44,120 --> 00:40:51,840
Speaker 1: Osasuna and Celta Vigo are both five hundred to one. Majorca, Valencia, Ryo, Vacano, Gitafe, Girona,

806
00:40:51,880 --> 00:40:57,120
Speaker 1: they're all one thousand to one. Almiria, Alavese, Grenada are

807
00:40:57,160 --> 00:41:01,239
Speaker 1: all fifteen hundred to one. Cadiz two thousand to one

808
00:41:02,080 --> 00:41:06,840
Speaker 1: and Las Palmas, a newly promoted team, two thousand, five

809
00:41:07,239 --> 00:41:12,040
Speaker 1: hundred to one. I have no interest in either Real

810
00:41:12,080 --> 00:41:14,200
Speaker 1: Madrid or Barcelona, but you actually do have some interest

811
00:41:14,239 --> 00:41:16,960
Speaker 1: in betting Barcelona at a decent plus number here against

812
00:41:16,960 --> 00:41:17,520
Speaker 1: Real Madrid.

813
00:41:19,120 --> 00:41:21,520
Speaker 2: Yeah, why is this the number?

814
00:41:22,360 --> 00:41:24,480
Speaker 1: Do they think that they're getting in Bape?

815
00:41:24,760 --> 00:41:26,239
Speaker 2: I mean, look, if they get killing them Bapa the yea,

816
00:41:26,239 --> 00:41:28,600
Speaker 2: they should be the favorite. But like it doesn't seem

817
00:41:28,640 --> 00:41:31,920
Speaker 2: to be happening until next summer. To me, who is

818
00:41:31,960 --> 00:41:35,479
Speaker 2: the striker for Real Madrid at the moment, Joe slu Yeah,

819
00:41:35,480 --> 00:41:38,160
Speaker 2: I'm gonna I'm gonna say that that's not great. Like

820
00:41:38,360 --> 00:41:41,759
Speaker 2: they lose him Benzema. Benzima is on the top five

821
00:41:41,800 --> 00:41:43,480
Speaker 2: by the way for players who have cost me money

822
00:41:43,480 --> 00:41:45,839
Speaker 2: over the years. Yeah, but like this is a Real

823
00:41:45,840 --> 00:41:47,920
Speaker 2: Madrid team that like hasn't been very good in the

824
00:41:47,960 --> 00:41:51,000
Speaker 2: league for multiple years now, and they run back the

825
00:41:51,000 --> 00:41:54,640
Speaker 2: same manager. There's there's a couple of cases for Madrid, right,

826
00:41:54,640 --> 00:41:56,680
Speaker 2: Like they bring Bellingham in and like he should be

827
00:41:56,719 --> 00:41:59,040
Speaker 2: a very good player in their midfield, immediately walks in

828
00:42:00,000 --> 00:42:01,880
Speaker 2: and is probably a top four player on the team.

829
00:42:02,320 --> 00:42:06,000
Speaker 2: Veneties takes another step forward. You can kind of paint

830
00:42:06,000 --> 00:42:10,480
Speaker 2: the picture where this works. But they're gonna lose a

831
00:42:10,520 --> 00:42:15,120
Speaker 2: lot in production from losing Karen Benzema nineteen goals in

832
00:42:16,120 --> 00:42:19,200
Speaker 2: the league last year. Vlilevich is the name they've been floating.

833
00:42:19,200 --> 00:42:21,239
Speaker 2: He's getting three shots per ninety and ittaly point four

834
00:42:21,280 --> 00:42:24,680
Speaker 2: to five xg for ninety like fine, but not Benzema.

835
00:42:25,320 --> 00:42:27,440
Speaker 2: And his finishing is at the level of Benzema, and

836
00:42:27,520 --> 00:42:33,680
Speaker 2: his his you know, connectivity in his cohesion with Venetius

837
00:42:33,760 --> 00:42:37,160
Speaker 2: has really been amazing to see over the years. And

838
00:42:37,160 --> 00:42:39,320
Speaker 2: then they lose Asensio two and it's not like a

839
00:42:39,360 --> 00:42:41,880
Speaker 2: Censio is a world beater player, but he produced a

840
00:42:41,920 --> 00:42:43,960
Speaker 2: lot for this team off the bench and in a

841
00:42:44,000 --> 00:42:46,920
Speaker 2: sub start role, like he wasn't always playing, but when

842
00:42:46,960 --> 00:42:50,319
Speaker 2: he did play, he was quite good. Censio fifteen goal

843
00:42:50,360 --> 00:42:53,480
Speaker 2: involvements in sixteen nineties last year. And did he overform

844
00:42:53,520 --> 00:42:56,160
Speaker 2: his ex g wildly, yes, but he was still putting

845
00:42:56,239 --> 00:43:00,200
Speaker 2: up some really impressive actually numbersero point seven actually plus

846
00:43:00,320 --> 00:43:02,960
Speaker 2: x a p ninety. He leaves and now it's like,

847
00:43:03,000 --> 00:43:06,040
Speaker 2: all right, who's left because he goes to PSG. So

848
00:43:06,080 --> 00:43:10,080
Speaker 2: now it's just Rodrigo Venetius belling Am. You know, I

849
00:43:10,160 --> 00:43:12,719
Speaker 2: expected Chew of Many to play more minutes, to slowly

850
00:43:12,800 --> 00:43:15,520
Speaker 2: work his way in for March and Cross, and maybe

851
00:43:15,520 --> 00:43:17,759
Speaker 2: that makes Real Madrid a better pressing team, a better

852
00:43:17,800 --> 00:43:20,920
Speaker 2: defensive aggressive team, because this Real Madrid team, because of

853
00:43:20,920 --> 00:43:25,560
Speaker 2: their athletic limitations with Benzima, Cross Modrich, you're very passive defensively,

854
00:43:25,600 --> 00:43:28,440
Speaker 2: so they would drop deeper, take you know, let teams

855
00:43:28,480 --> 00:43:32,480
Speaker 2: have the ball a little bit more against them, kind

856
00:43:32,480 --> 00:43:35,360
Speaker 2: of try to you know, allow weak, low quality shots.

857
00:43:35,719 --> 00:43:37,680
Speaker 2: But they're not getting high quality shots either, and now

858
00:43:37,719 --> 00:43:40,720
Speaker 2: they're taking away the striker. So they've they were bottom

859
00:43:40,760 --> 00:43:42,879
Speaker 2: five in the league in average shot distance last year,

860
00:43:42,880 --> 00:43:45,120
Speaker 2: and that just makes you more vulnerable as an attack

861
00:43:45,200 --> 00:43:51,360
Speaker 2: to two variants. So all of that, and then we

862
00:43:51,440 --> 00:43:53,799
Speaker 2: compare it to Barcelona, which they you know, they've had

863
00:43:53,840 --> 00:43:57,440
Speaker 2: a very quiet summer. They lose Sergio Busquetz. I'm kind

864
00:43:57,440 --> 00:43:59,440
Speaker 2: of skeptical on how much that really matters, because he

865
00:43:59,480 --> 00:44:02,080
Speaker 2: had been so passed his prime at this point, and

866
00:44:02,160 --> 00:44:04,239
Speaker 2: like his lack of running, I actually think hurt them

867
00:44:04,280 --> 00:44:07,160
Speaker 2: in transition defense against better teams. Like I think if

868
00:44:07,160 --> 00:44:09,440
Speaker 2: you had to say, what was Bars's biggest problem is

869
00:44:09,440 --> 00:44:12,640
Speaker 2: when they played teams with functioning transition attacks, they got

870
00:44:12,920 --> 00:44:15,640
Speaker 2: exposed a little bit, and that was shown in like

871
00:44:15,760 --> 00:44:19,320
Speaker 2: United match, the intermatch the Byron like any team that

872
00:44:19,400 --> 00:44:23,239
Speaker 2: have like big time attackers really destroyed them. Otherwise this

873
00:44:23,280 --> 00:44:27,040
Speaker 2: was an elite defense. They were much better Terscht Dagan

874
00:44:27,080 --> 00:44:29,480
Speaker 2: had a ridiculous shot stopping season. I don't think he'll

875
00:44:29,520 --> 00:44:31,359
Speaker 2: maintain that. But this is a Barcelona team that gets

876
00:44:31,360 --> 00:44:33,600
Speaker 2: a ton of high quality shots that I know they're

877
00:44:33,600 --> 00:44:36,239
Speaker 2: getting twenty five from Lewandowski if he's fit. They have,

878
00:44:36,719 --> 00:44:40,480
Speaker 2: you know, a younger core than Real Madrid. Why are

879
00:44:40,520 --> 00:44:43,120
Speaker 2: they such a big dog here? Is it because of Himbappe.

880
00:44:43,560 --> 00:44:45,160
Speaker 2: I don't really think they're even in the market for

881
00:44:45,239 --> 00:44:48,520
Speaker 2: Mbappe right now. I think it's clearly a next summer plant. Yeah,

882
00:44:48,760 --> 00:44:52,000
Speaker 2: so I don't think I can ford him this summer exactly.

883
00:44:52,080 --> 00:44:56,280
Speaker 2: So that means I think bars is better and somebody

884
00:44:56,320 --> 00:44:58,360
Speaker 2: has a dmy for front of the pod DM me

885
00:44:59,440 --> 00:45:02,960
Speaker 2: but I let team no. I really don't have interested

886
00:45:02,960 --> 00:45:05,600
Speaker 2: eight to one like they won the league a couple

887
00:45:05,640 --> 00:45:08,319
Speaker 2: of years ago twenty twenty twenty twenty one because O

888
00:45:08,480 --> 00:45:11,600
Speaker 2: Block had a historically good season for like the third

889
00:45:11,640 --> 00:45:13,440
Speaker 2: straight year he was at the peak of his powers.

890
00:45:13,440 --> 00:45:16,239
Speaker 2: It's shot stopping. They had a ridiculous finishing run and

891
00:45:16,320 --> 00:45:21,640
Speaker 2: attack from Suarez and company. And Barsa and Rial were

892
00:45:21,680 --> 00:45:23,480
Speaker 2: both kind of down. Remember it was the Barsa team

893
00:45:23,560 --> 00:45:25,680
Speaker 2: right after they gotten destroyed by Bayern. It was Lionel

894
00:45:25,719 --> 00:45:28,560
Speaker 2: Messi like kind of on his way out. They had

895
00:45:28,560 --> 00:45:31,440
Speaker 2: all kinds of squad issues and they were down. They

896
00:45:31,440 --> 00:45:34,759
Speaker 2: were like and Rial was down too in the league,

897
00:45:34,800 --> 00:45:37,680
Speaker 2: and they still had much better underline number than that.

898
00:45:37,800 --> 00:45:39,719
Speaker 2: Letty and a Lette needed to luck box to get there.

899
00:45:40,760 --> 00:45:43,840
Speaker 2: It is so hard to win this league as underdog.

900
00:45:43,880 --> 00:45:48,200
Speaker 2: That's it's not really worth investing. Also, and Trunk createsman

901
00:45:49,280 --> 00:45:55,319
Speaker 2: thirty one goal involvements last season at age thirty one.

902
00:45:55,480 --> 00:45:58,120
Speaker 2: I've definitely said he was washing the past point eight

903
00:45:58,160 --> 00:46:01,279
Speaker 2: three x G plus x A ninety. That's better than

904
00:46:01,320 --> 00:46:06,160
Speaker 2: he's ever done ever. Yeah, Ever, as far as we

905
00:46:06,200 --> 00:46:08,400
Speaker 2: have the extra data back, so like twenty sixteen, so

906
00:46:08,480 --> 00:46:10,040
Speaker 2: the last seven years, he has the best year of

907
00:46:10,040 --> 00:46:13,040
Speaker 2: his career. I don't really think that's gonna happen again.

908
00:46:13,480 --> 00:46:15,160
Speaker 2: They're the third oldest team in the league. There's no

909
00:46:15,239 --> 00:46:18,160
Speaker 2: real like breakout star that's about to produce and bring

910
00:46:18,239 --> 00:46:20,239
Speaker 2: the gun to the scene and take the goals. In

911
00:46:20,280 --> 00:46:23,879
Speaker 2: my view, so I'm kind of down on Letti too,

912
00:46:24,000 --> 00:46:28,680
Speaker 2: which means Sociadad, we run it back plus one ninety

913
00:46:28,680 --> 00:46:29,080
Speaker 2: top four.

914
00:46:30,480 --> 00:46:34,080
Speaker 1: I mean that's going back to that. Yes, okay, it's

915
00:46:34,080 --> 00:46:34,760
Speaker 1: a little short.

916
00:46:35,160 --> 00:46:37,800
Speaker 2: Yeah, because but I don't really think that the Chasing

917
00:46:37,800 --> 00:46:38,760
Speaker 2: pack is that good.

918
00:46:39,600 --> 00:46:41,640
Speaker 1: I'll give one. I'll give one that I like in

919
00:46:41,680 --> 00:46:43,799
Speaker 1: the Chasing pack, and it's the team we've bet a

920
00:46:43,840 --> 00:46:49,480
Speaker 1: million times. But Athletic Billbao. I like their profile and

921
00:46:49,520 --> 00:46:52,280
Speaker 1: if you look back last season they had similar numbers.

922
00:46:52,280 --> 00:46:53,880
Speaker 1: I agree with you. I like sociad I thought the

923
00:46:53,920 --> 00:46:56,240
Speaker 1: number was just a tattoo short. They just lost solot

924
00:46:56,320 --> 00:46:56,960
Speaker 1: to Via.

925
00:46:56,880 --> 00:46:58,920
Speaker 2: Reale, which they have Lumar sadikin.

926
00:46:58,960 --> 00:47:01,400
Speaker 1: Now they do have Lumar City's coming off an ACL injury,

927
00:47:01,440 --> 00:47:04,359
Speaker 1: so we'll see how good he is. Obviously. You know,

928
00:47:04,640 --> 00:47:09,880
Speaker 1: we love take Fusu Kuba, we love Ole Thabo, but

929
00:47:10,920 --> 00:47:15,759
Speaker 1: Athletic bill Bao. You know, they do lose Nigo Martinez

930
00:47:15,800 --> 00:47:18,760
Speaker 1: to Barcelona, who is their best defender, so that's a problem.

931
00:47:18,800 --> 00:47:22,920
Speaker 1: But this is a team last season that put up

932
00:47:22,920 --> 00:47:26,439
Speaker 1: the fifth best expected gold differential, only two goals behind Rial.

933
00:47:26,560 --> 00:47:30,120
Speaker 1: Socidad obviously a very very good defensive team and they're

934
00:47:30,200 --> 00:47:33,160
Speaker 1: very They're so difficult to play against because they can

935
00:47:33,200 --> 00:47:34,759
Speaker 1: come out and press you with their forwards. They have

936
00:47:34,800 --> 00:47:36,799
Speaker 1: the most highes turn numbers of anybody in LA League,

937
00:47:36,800 --> 00:47:40,680
Speaker 1: and they can sit so well compact defensively in that

938
00:47:40,719 --> 00:47:43,359
Speaker 1: low block. You know, the best final third to box

939
00:47:43,480 --> 00:47:45,640
Speaker 1: entry conversion rate of anybody in LA League as well.

940
00:47:47,000 --> 00:47:50,560
Speaker 1: You know, Martinez is a loss, but you look around,

941
00:47:50,920 --> 00:47:53,359
Speaker 1: they didn't lose anybody else. The Williams brothers are still

942
00:47:53,360 --> 00:47:56,239
Speaker 1: there putting up great numbers. They have one of the

943
00:47:56,320 --> 00:47:59,719
Speaker 1: most exciting young players, no Han Sinsett, who was about

944
00:47:59,719 --> 00:48:02,200
Speaker 1: a point five xg plus expected us this per ninety

945
00:48:02,200 --> 00:48:05,560
Speaker 1: minute rate at the age of twenty two, commanding a

946
00:48:05,560 --> 00:48:09,880
Speaker 1: thirty million dollar transfer value on transfer market dot Com.

947
00:48:09,920 --> 00:48:14,000
Speaker 1: And again we look at the chasing pack. You know, Socidad,

948
00:48:14,880 --> 00:48:16,239
Speaker 1: I agree with you. I think the number might be

949
00:48:16,280 --> 00:48:19,399
Speaker 1: just a little too short. Savilla and Rial Bettis had

950
00:48:19,440 --> 00:48:22,960
Speaker 1: significantly worse underlying metrics. You know, Syvia's obviously completely fallen

951
00:48:22,960 --> 00:48:25,719
Speaker 1: off in terms of where they are as a team,

952
00:48:25,719 --> 00:48:27,120
Speaker 1: and I don't really see them as much of a

953
00:48:27,120 --> 00:48:29,400
Speaker 1: threat anymore unless they love box their way up to

954
00:48:29,440 --> 00:48:32,279
Speaker 1: the top four like they've done in previous seasons. You

955
00:48:32,320 --> 00:48:36,839
Speaker 1: look at Via Reale, who just loss pow Torres. There's

956
00:48:36,880 --> 00:48:40,439
Speaker 1: really nobody else other than Bill Bao and Socia Dad

957
00:48:40,440 --> 00:48:43,319
Speaker 1: and the chasing pack for top four. And you also

958
00:48:43,400 --> 00:48:47,279
Speaker 1: mentioned the problems with Athletico Madrid, how they're old and

959
00:48:47,280 --> 00:48:50,440
Speaker 1: they're only getting older, bringing in you know, Espilaquetta and

960
00:48:50,480 --> 00:48:52,840
Speaker 1: Sionku to somewhat shir up their defense. I don't know

961
00:48:52,840 --> 00:48:55,280
Speaker 1: if that really does anything. You know, over the course

962
00:48:55,320 --> 00:49:00,600
Speaker 1: of the end of last season, uh semeone started playing

963
00:49:00,600 --> 00:49:02,880
Speaker 1: a lot more aggressively. You know, Athletico was putting up

964
00:49:02,880 --> 00:49:05,840
Speaker 1: great offensive numbers. I think that's why you saw Antoine

965
00:49:05,840 --> 00:49:08,960
Speaker 1: Griesman who forever was playing in Semioni's four four to

966
00:49:09,000 --> 00:49:12,880
Speaker 1: two low block, you know, key and on defensive metrics.

967
00:49:12,880 --> 00:49:16,239
Speaker 1: But now, I mean Athletico was putting up two to

968
00:49:16,239 --> 00:49:18,480
Speaker 1: three expected goals towards the end of last season. Then

969
00:49:18,480 --> 00:49:22,560
Speaker 1: they switched to the three five too, so we'll see

970
00:49:22,680 --> 00:49:26,359
Speaker 1: what happens. You know, how I would attack Athletic, Bill

971
00:49:26,360 --> 00:49:28,719
Speaker 1: Boo is I like them at nine to one to

972
00:49:28,800 --> 00:49:32,160
Speaker 1: be the winner without Barcelona or Real Madrid because nobody's

973
00:49:32,160 --> 00:49:34,239
Speaker 1: catching those two. It's it's going to be a two

974
00:49:34,280 --> 00:49:38,520
Speaker 1: horse race, you know, them being better than teams like

975
00:49:38,600 --> 00:49:43,440
Speaker 1: Sevilla and Real. Bettis I think there's in vi Real.

976
00:49:43,760 --> 00:49:45,520
Speaker 1: I think that's a decent price to take a chance

977
00:49:45,520 --> 00:49:47,480
Speaker 1: on them. Finally, they don't want they it looks like

978
00:49:47,480 --> 00:49:50,000
Speaker 1: they're not going to play in Europe. Osasuna has been

979
00:49:50,040 --> 00:49:52,640
Speaker 1: going through this weird like match fixing thing where they

980
00:49:52,880 --> 00:49:55,640
Speaker 1: from like ten years ago where some they got banned

981
00:49:55,680 --> 00:49:57,600
Speaker 1: from Europa Conference League and then bill bow Is going

982
00:49:57,680 --> 00:50:00,040
Speaker 1: to take their place, but then they appealed it and

983
00:50:00,080 --> 00:50:01,839
Speaker 1: they won that appeal, So I'm not really sure what's

984
00:50:01,880 --> 00:50:04,080
Speaker 1: going on with that right now. But Bill Boo is

985
00:50:04,160 --> 00:50:06,080
Speaker 1: not going to be playing Europe, so they won't have

986
00:50:06,080 --> 00:50:08,600
Speaker 1: that added pressure with them, while you know, Sociadada is

987
00:50:08,600 --> 00:50:11,440
Speaker 1: making their return to the Champions League, which is obviously

988
00:50:11,560 --> 00:50:14,319
Speaker 1: huge for them and you know added matches in there.

989
00:50:14,400 --> 00:50:16,960
Speaker 1: So at a price of nine to one, I think

990
00:50:17,000 --> 00:50:19,160
Speaker 1: it's a decent price on Bill Bois team. We obviously

991
00:50:19,239 --> 00:50:22,480
Speaker 1: have bet you know, a million times to be the

992
00:50:22,520 --> 00:50:26,000
Speaker 1: winner without essentially finish in third place.

993
00:50:27,160 --> 00:50:30,680
Speaker 2: Yeah, Virial got raided. I mean they Jackson to Chelsea.

994
00:50:30,719 --> 00:50:34,600
Speaker 2: They lost the Quays to Milan. They lost Torres. That's

995
00:50:34,680 --> 00:50:37,320
Speaker 2: the two of their three or four best players lose. Also,

996
00:50:37,560 --> 00:50:40,520
Speaker 2: who was awesome for them on loan last year goes

997
00:50:40,520 --> 00:50:42,560
Speaker 2: back to Spurs now, So like they have gotten raided.

998
00:50:43,200 --> 00:50:44,719
Speaker 2: I wasn't even really a big fan of them in

999
00:50:44,719 --> 00:50:48,279
Speaker 2: the market, Like after Emery left, they kind of stagnated,

1000
00:50:48,320 --> 00:50:50,160
Speaker 2: and so I think there's real regression coming for them.

1001
00:50:50,200 --> 00:50:52,240
Speaker 2: I wouldn't be surprised to see them in the mid table.

1002
00:50:53,040 --> 00:50:55,920
Speaker 2: Savilla is interesting because you're kind of buying them at

1003
00:50:55,960 --> 00:50:58,480
Speaker 2: the peak here again, like who's the real Sevilla. They're

1004
00:50:58,520 --> 00:51:00,880
Speaker 2: not the team that played relegation level half of the season.

1005
00:51:01,320 --> 00:51:03,399
Speaker 2: But then like you could say, you could squint and say, well,

1006
00:51:03,400 --> 00:51:05,640
Speaker 2: they had a plus point four actually difference per ninety

1007
00:51:05,640 --> 00:51:08,160
Speaker 2: in the final three months of the season. That is

1008
00:51:08,200 --> 00:51:10,280
Speaker 2: about what they would need to play out for this season.

1009
00:51:10,360 --> 00:51:14,360
Speaker 2: Tore to deserve that number at plus two thirty or

1010
00:51:14,360 --> 00:51:17,200
Speaker 2: whatever it is to finish top four, and they weren't

1011
00:51:17,200 --> 00:51:19,640
Speaker 2: that two years ago. They don't really have like a

1012
00:51:19,760 --> 00:51:23,160
Speaker 2: list of like an impressive list of players coming in.

1013
00:51:24,000 --> 00:51:27,200
Speaker 2: They probably get more from their strikers this year and

1014
00:51:27,600 --> 00:51:31,399
Speaker 2: the series but like they weren't good defensively either, So

1015
00:51:31,760 --> 00:51:33,239
Speaker 2: I think there's still a lot of questions about this

1016
00:51:33,280 --> 00:51:36,680
Speaker 2: Sevia team, like what are they really I still think

1017
00:51:36,719 --> 00:51:39,960
Speaker 2: that they're clearly worse than Socidad and slightly worse than Billbao,

1018
00:51:40,120 --> 00:51:42,480
Speaker 2: so I could see them finish fifth or sixth, but

1019
00:51:42,719 --> 00:51:44,440
Speaker 2: I really think top four is a stretch, and I

1020
00:51:44,520 --> 00:51:46,520
Speaker 2: just like the associated odd team. They also got Andre

1021
00:51:46,560 --> 00:51:50,480
Speaker 2: Silva in there. He's okay, him in for Sir Loo

1022
00:51:50,680 --> 00:51:53,880
Speaker 2: who leaves, it's kind of wash for me. Sadiko twenty

1023
00:51:53,880 --> 00:51:56,560
Speaker 2: four goals in the second division. That he had twenty

1024
00:51:56,560 --> 00:51:58,840
Speaker 2: seven goals in the second division for al Maria. He

1025
00:51:58,920 --> 00:52:01,640
Speaker 2: scored three goals in the first two games, then got

1026
00:52:01,640 --> 00:52:04,960
Speaker 2: sold and then got hurt. So him added into this

1027
00:52:05,040 --> 00:52:08,319
Speaker 2: team is a real threat. And you know, we don't

1028
00:52:08,360 --> 00:52:09,880
Speaker 2: know what he looks like off this big knee injury,

1029
00:52:09,880 --> 00:52:13,040
Speaker 2: but if he's anywhere close to to you know, what

1030
00:52:13,080 --> 00:52:15,759
Speaker 2: I think he can be, then this is like a

1031
00:52:15,800 --> 00:52:18,839
Speaker 2: twenty goal per year striker on a team that had

1032
00:52:19,000 --> 00:52:20,560
Speaker 2: if they had a problem, it was scoring goals. They

1033
00:52:20,560 --> 00:52:23,239
Speaker 2: were an elite defensive team. I still like as Sociodad,

1034
00:52:23,520 --> 00:52:25,279
Speaker 2: and I know it's a little bit cheaper this year,

1035
00:52:25,280 --> 00:52:27,480
Speaker 2: but I think there's a good chance they finished third,

1036
00:52:27,520 --> 00:52:29,640
Speaker 2: and I'll be looking to find like associate DoD Over

1037
00:52:29,719 --> 00:52:31,399
Speaker 2: at Letti Market. I don't know that we'll get one,

1038
00:52:31,440 --> 00:52:34,359
Speaker 2: but if we do, I'm intrigued by it. I guess

1039
00:52:34,360 --> 00:52:37,480
Speaker 2: what is their winner without barsa real price?

1040
00:52:38,239 --> 00:52:40,960
Speaker 1: Socidad is sitting ast six to one to be the

1041
00:52:41,000 --> 00:52:42,360
Speaker 1: winner without That's an interesting price.

1042
00:52:42,800 --> 00:52:44,600
Speaker 2: I think I like that more. Yeah, and just as

1043
00:52:44,640 --> 00:52:46,040
Speaker 2: much as top foe me. I'm gonna bet some top

1044
00:52:46,080 --> 00:52:48,480
Speaker 2: four and I'm also gonna bet some winner without I

1045
00:52:48,840 --> 00:52:53,680
Speaker 2: really just like the everything about this team, the system,

1046
00:52:53,760 --> 00:52:56,840
Speaker 2: the addition of a city who has a ton of upside.

1047
00:52:57,560 --> 00:52:59,440
Speaker 2: They were just about as good as a Letti last

1048
00:52:59,520 --> 00:53:02,400
Speaker 2: year until Graysman went god mode for like three months.

1049
00:53:02,640 --> 00:53:04,759
Speaker 1: The hast season and if and the thing about a

1050
00:53:04,800 --> 00:53:07,640
Speaker 1: floody coat as well. Like, they're not going to get

1051
00:53:07,680 --> 00:53:10,440
Speaker 1: better defensively just because they brought in Simon and Asper. Quote.

1052
00:53:11,719 --> 00:53:14,400
Speaker 1: If they're going to continue to play this high scoring,

1053
00:53:14,840 --> 00:53:16,800
Speaker 1: high event style, I think it's going to be a

1054
00:53:16,880 --> 00:53:18,920
Speaker 1: negative for them in the long run because of how

1055
00:53:19,000 --> 00:53:21,120
Speaker 1: old they are in attack, Like they're basically just gonna

1056
00:53:21,120 --> 00:53:25,120
Speaker 1: be relying on Marata and grays Mont to be most

1057
00:53:25,160 --> 00:53:27,120
Speaker 1: of their attack for an entire season, and I'm not

1058
00:53:27,160 --> 00:53:28,279
Speaker 1: sure they can really keep that up.

1059
00:53:28,960 --> 00:53:30,520
Speaker 2: Yeah, I no, Block has not been the same guy

1060
00:53:30,560 --> 00:53:32,600
Speaker 2: the last two years. True he's been fine, but like

1061
00:53:32,719 --> 00:53:36,160
Speaker 2: not the same guy, not the holy goodness God level

1062
00:53:36,200 --> 00:53:38,279
Speaker 2: shot stopping. So that was really their their ace in

1063
00:53:38,320 --> 00:53:41,120
Speaker 2: the hole. Without him at that level, it's just kind

1064
00:53:41,160 --> 00:53:44,279
Speaker 2: of a black profile, like a team that doesn't really

1065
00:53:44,280 --> 00:53:46,279
Speaker 2: have a high ceiling. So yeah, no interest in a

1066
00:53:46,400 --> 00:53:48,520
Speaker 2: LETI for the league. I'm sure Leeboff will come on

1067
00:53:48,600 --> 00:53:50,239
Speaker 2: and bet them win the Champions League again and then

1068
00:53:50,280 --> 00:53:52,480
Speaker 2: don't make a donation in the name of maybe I'll

1069
00:53:52,480 --> 00:53:55,600
Speaker 2: book those tickets this year, book them.

1070
00:53:56,040 --> 00:53:58,120
Speaker 1: I'll book your tickets for that. Yeah, that'd be funny.

1071
00:53:58,520 --> 00:54:01,719
Speaker 1: All right, let's move on. Uh, I'm gonna move us

1072
00:54:01,760 --> 00:54:06,239
Speaker 1: onto relegation. There is a team out there that I

1073
00:54:06,560 --> 00:54:08,719
Speaker 1: told you before this market came out that I really

1074
00:54:08,760 --> 00:54:11,040
Speaker 1: wanted to bet, and I was hoping they wouldn't make

1075
00:54:11,080 --> 00:54:13,560
Speaker 1: them the favorite to be relegated or something as at

1076
00:54:13,560 --> 00:54:15,960
Speaker 1: a minus number, and they didn't, and I'm glad they didn't.

1077
00:54:16,440 --> 00:54:19,000
Speaker 1: But I love Kaddiz to be relegated at plus one

1078
00:54:19,040 --> 00:54:21,600
Speaker 1: thirty eight. They're giving me the same similar vibes to

1079
00:54:21,800 --> 00:54:25,560
Speaker 1: what LJA was going into last season. A team that

1080
00:54:27,000 --> 00:54:29,640
Speaker 1: you know in Cadiz that had a minus twenty expected

1081
00:54:29,640 --> 00:54:32,200
Speaker 1: oldfferential which was third worst in La Liga. They really

1082
00:54:32,239 --> 00:54:34,600
Speaker 1: should have been relegated. Espiniol really should have stayed up.

1083
00:54:35,880 --> 00:54:38,040
Speaker 1: And when you're talking about relegation, you know we we've

1084
00:54:38,080 --> 00:54:40,920
Speaker 1: obviously talked at length about this is really book. You

1085
00:54:41,080 --> 00:54:44,400
Speaker 1: want to bet teams that have the biggest potential for

1086
00:54:44,520 --> 00:54:48,080
Speaker 1: things to go really really wrong, and you have to

1087
00:54:48,120 --> 00:54:50,160
Speaker 1: ask yourself what can really go right for this team

1088
00:54:50,200 --> 00:54:52,120
Speaker 1: to stay up. If you look at the teams coming

1089
00:54:52,200 --> 00:54:55,200
Speaker 1: up from the second division, Granada and Alabase have been

1090
00:54:55,239 --> 00:54:57,480
Speaker 1: mainstays in Laaliga for for a while and they have

1091
00:54:57,560 --> 00:55:00,680
Speaker 1: a decent talent pool. If you look at transfer dot com,

1092
00:55:01,239 --> 00:55:04,240
Speaker 1: Los Palmas is a very very interesting team, Anthony, because

1093
00:55:05,239 --> 00:55:10,520
Speaker 1: they put up insane underlying numbers in the second division

1094
00:55:10,560 --> 00:55:12,960
Speaker 1: around a point seven to eight. They were a point

1095
00:55:13,040 --> 00:55:15,480
Speaker 1: seven to eight actually differential per ninety and that was

1096
00:55:15,600 --> 00:55:18,680
Speaker 1: way better than Alabe's, way better than Grenada. Very clear

1097
00:55:18,719 --> 00:55:20,360
Speaker 1: in a way the best team in the second division.

1098
00:55:20,600 --> 00:55:23,440
Speaker 1: So although they have the least talent per transmarket dot Com,

1099
00:55:23,560 --> 00:55:27,200
Speaker 1: they are going to project out to be a halfway

1100
00:55:27,280 --> 00:55:30,360
Speaker 1: decent team that you could finish fourteenth or fifteenth in

1101
00:55:30,440 --> 00:55:34,960
Speaker 1: this league. So now you look at a team like

1102
00:55:35,080 --> 00:55:39,560
Speaker 1: Cadiz who should have been relegated. Who what were they

1103
00:55:39,719 --> 00:55:43,400
Speaker 1: really good at last season? They were near the bottom. Defensively,

1104
00:55:43,520 --> 00:55:45,800
Speaker 1: they were a really really bad love block that allowed

1105
00:55:45,840 --> 00:55:48,200
Speaker 1: one point six expected goals for ninety minutes. They weren't

1106
00:55:48,200 --> 00:55:51,400
Speaker 1: effective in transition. They had the third lowest amount of shots,

1107
00:55:51,760 --> 00:55:55,800
Speaker 1: second lowest big scoring chances, fifth longest average shot distance.

1108
00:55:56,400 --> 00:55:58,319
Speaker 1: It's just only a matter of time before a team

1109
00:55:58,440 --> 00:56:02,040
Speaker 1: like this gets relegated. And so at a price of

1110
00:56:02,120 --> 00:56:04,359
Speaker 1: plus one thirty eight to go down, I really think

1111
00:56:04,440 --> 00:56:06,960
Speaker 1: they should be the favorites to go down, given the

1112
00:56:07,000 --> 00:56:09,239
Speaker 1: teams that came up from the second division. And there's

1113
00:56:09,280 --> 00:56:12,840
Speaker 1: really no other team other than al Maria, who you know,

1114
00:56:13,200 --> 00:56:15,799
Speaker 1: they lose the l'al tore, but they you know, they

1115
00:56:15,920 --> 00:56:18,560
Speaker 1: bringing a kone who's a nicer addition for him, and

1116
00:56:18,800 --> 00:56:20,719
Speaker 1: a team that can actually score goals as opposed to

1117
00:56:20,719 --> 00:56:24,160
Speaker 1: this Cadiz team that can't defend, can't score, can't really

1118
00:56:24,239 --> 00:56:27,759
Speaker 1: do anything well and just needs kind of a couple

1119
00:56:28,520 --> 00:56:31,279
Speaker 1: crazy results against the bottom half the table to stay up.

1120
00:56:31,400 --> 00:56:34,640
Speaker 1: So oh and one more thing I got. I forgot

1121
00:56:34,640 --> 00:56:39,280
Speaker 1: to mention about Cadiz. They just lost THEO Bogdanga to Moscow.

1122
00:56:41,040 --> 00:56:44,600
Speaker 1: He led their team, Yes, led their team with four

1123
00:56:44,680 --> 00:56:47,360
Speaker 1: goals in three assists. That was the highest total of anybody.

1124
00:56:47,760 --> 00:56:49,440
Speaker 1: Was a point three to eight x sheet plus expected

1125
00:56:49,480 --> 00:56:51,880
Speaker 1: assists rate for ninety. Nobody else was even close on

1126
00:56:51,920 --> 00:56:54,319
Speaker 1: their team and played over ten nineties. So I think

1127
00:56:54,360 --> 00:56:56,640
Speaker 1: this team is going down. They're giving me similar vibes

1128
00:56:56,680 --> 00:56:59,040
Speaker 1: to l Chase. So I really really like Cadiz to

1129
00:56:59,080 --> 00:57:04,320
Speaker 1: be relegated. All right, that we'll do it for Spain.

1130
00:57:04,680 --> 00:57:08,400
Speaker 1: Let's move on to our final league, France League one,

1131
00:57:08,440 --> 00:57:12,400
Speaker 1: And Anthony, when I saw the title odds this one,

1132
00:57:12,560 --> 00:57:16,120
Speaker 1: this league maybe made me the most intrigued of any

1133
00:57:16,160 --> 00:57:19,680
Speaker 1: of the other leagues. Oh yeah, of what is happening

1134
00:57:20,560 --> 00:57:23,480
Speaker 1: at PSG right now? And I think it is creating

1135
00:57:23,560 --> 00:57:29,040
Speaker 1: a fantastic betting opportunity. But PSG is your favorite. They're

1136
00:57:29,080 --> 00:57:32,840
Speaker 1: sitting up minus three fifty, Marseilles twelve to one, Lens

1137
00:57:33,440 --> 00:57:36,840
Speaker 1: twenty to one, Monaco twenty to one, Lil twenty to one,

1138
00:57:37,200 --> 00:57:40,200
Speaker 1: Leon's twenty five to one, Ren thirty three to one,

1139
00:57:40,440 --> 00:57:43,160
Speaker 1: Niice is fifty to one, Reems is two hundred to one,

1140
00:57:43,600 --> 00:57:46,680
Speaker 1: Strasbourg two hundred to one, Toulouse two hundred and fifty

1141
00:57:46,720 --> 00:57:49,760
Speaker 1: to one, Montpellier two hundred and fifty to one. Claremont

1142
00:57:49,840 --> 00:57:52,360
Speaker 1: Foot and Knots are both three hundred and fifty one,

1143
00:57:53,120 --> 00:57:58,080
Speaker 1: Laurent is five hundred to one, Lejavre is seven hundred

1144
00:57:58,080 --> 00:57:59,880
Speaker 1: and fifty to one, Breast one thousand and one, and

1145
00:58:00,160 --> 00:58:04,600
Speaker 1: Mets is one thousand to one as well, if you've

1146
00:58:04,600 --> 00:58:07,520
Speaker 1: been living under a rock, there is a lot of

1147
00:58:07,600 --> 00:58:12,320
Speaker 1: drama at PSG surrounding Killian and bape on Weather and

1148
00:58:12,440 --> 00:58:17,080
Speaker 1: I honestly, as and Neymar and as time as we

1149
00:58:17,200 --> 00:58:20,120
Speaker 1: record this, Anthony, I don't know what I don't know

1150
00:58:20,200 --> 00:58:22,320
Speaker 1: what the current status is. I know that he's been

1151
00:58:22,640 --> 00:58:26,360
Speaker 1: dropped for their first couple league on matches. You know,

1152
00:58:26,600 --> 00:58:29,320
Speaker 1: as it's been stated is it's basically a stalemate where

1153
00:58:29,680 --> 00:58:31,840
Speaker 1: PSG says we are not going to let him leave

1154
00:58:31,880 --> 00:58:34,720
Speaker 1: for free to Real Madrid, and he is basically saying, no,

1155
00:58:34,800 --> 00:58:36,320
Speaker 1: I want to play out my final year at PSG

1156
00:58:36,440 --> 00:58:39,680
Speaker 1: because he wants to, you know, recoup quite a bit

1157
00:58:39,720 --> 00:58:43,800
Speaker 1: of money, and I think this creates a fantastic betting

1158
00:58:43,840 --> 00:58:48,160
Speaker 1: opportunity for a team down the board that had basically

1159
00:58:48,400 --> 00:58:51,880
Speaker 1: just as kind of expected metrics as PSG had in

1160
00:58:52,040 --> 00:58:55,440
Speaker 1: lil who you can find as high as thirty five

1161
00:58:55,480 --> 00:58:56,560
Speaker 1: to one in the market right now.

1162
00:58:57,240 --> 00:58:59,840
Speaker 2: Yeah, you know, it's really you have to dig into

1163
00:58:59,880 --> 00:59:01,720
Speaker 2: the team and kind of figure out who has the

1164
00:59:01,800 --> 00:59:05,120
Speaker 2: ceiling to get to that level. First thing, first, league

1165
00:59:05,200 --> 00:59:07,680
Speaker 2: is shorter this year. He went from twenty teams to

1166
00:59:07,760 --> 00:59:09,960
Speaker 2: eighteen teams, which means you instead of playing thirty eight games,

1167
00:59:10,000 --> 00:59:13,320
Speaker 2: you only played thirty four, which, of course, shorter games

1168
00:59:13,440 --> 00:59:16,360
Speaker 2: means more variance, means more chance of an upset happening

1169
00:59:16,400 --> 00:59:19,760
Speaker 2: against the better PSG team. There's the chance they lose

1170
00:59:19,800 --> 00:59:21,919
Speaker 2: both namar And and Bappe. Even if they keep both,

1171
00:59:22,240 --> 00:59:24,600
Speaker 2: I think they're still vulnerable. This is a team that

1172
00:59:24,720 --> 00:59:26,600
Speaker 2: only won the league over LENS by a couple points

1173
00:59:26,680 --> 00:59:30,640
Speaker 2: last year, and had Lens had a better day at

1174
00:59:30,720 --> 00:59:33,320
Speaker 2: PSG toward the end of the season, they could have won.

1175
00:59:33,360 --> 00:59:35,400
Speaker 2: The league ended up being a one point gap. PSG

1176
00:59:35,480 --> 00:59:37,120
Speaker 2: kind of mailed in the last two matches.

1177
00:59:37,320 --> 00:59:37,400
Speaker 1: So.

1178
00:59:38,880 --> 00:59:40,840
Speaker 2: The question is who can get to that eighty points

1179
00:59:41,600 --> 00:59:43,640
Speaker 2: that reasonably, you know, and it's gonna be a little

1180
00:59:43,640 --> 00:59:45,520
Speaker 2: lower this year, I guess because of the shorter number.

1181
00:59:45,560 --> 00:59:48,360
Speaker 2: But the two teams that immediately jump off the page

1182
00:59:48,400 --> 00:59:52,040
Speaker 2: to me are Ren and Leal, And you mentioned lel already.

1183
00:59:52,200 --> 00:59:55,200
Speaker 2: I think they're going to keep David. They keep David,

1184
00:59:55,280 --> 00:59:58,080
Speaker 2: then you know, it's twenty goals in the door, impressive

1185
00:59:58,160 --> 01:00:01,280
Speaker 2: numbers from him. They a style that makes them a

1186
01:00:01,400 --> 01:00:05,560
Speaker 2: very solid defensive side. They sometimes will struggle to get

1187
01:00:05,640 --> 01:00:08,440
Speaker 2: separation from weaker teams in this league, but you know,

1188
01:00:08,560 --> 01:00:10,720
Speaker 2: by extra different second best in the league last year

1189
01:00:10,760 --> 01:00:14,720
Speaker 2: by expected goals allowed, best defense. Marseille for me, you know,

1190
01:00:16,920 --> 01:00:20,760
Speaker 2: we gotta do this thing again, Marseille. I'm not falling

1191
01:00:20,840 --> 01:00:24,000
Speaker 2: forward again. I'm betting them because I bet the ceiling

1192
01:00:24,120 --> 01:00:27,360
Speaker 2: last year, and you know, they showed signs of it,

1193
01:00:27,440 --> 01:00:31,120
Speaker 2: but the inconsistency, the constant performances down the stretch where

1194
01:00:31,120 --> 01:00:36,640
Speaker 2: they just looked kind of uninterested. And you know, they

1195
01:00:37,440 --> 01:00:40,000
Speaker 2: get seventeen goal contributions from thirty three year old Alexis

1196
01:00:40,040 --> 01:00:43,600
Speaker 2: Sanchez and you know, how much is that repeatable? Like

1197
01:00:43,640 --> 01:00:48,840
Speaker 2: they've had a decent summer, but I'm kind of uncertain

1198
01:00:48,960 --> 01:00:52,040
Speaker 2: about like how high their ceiling really is. And this

1199
01:00:52,120 --> 01:00:54,320
Speaker 2: has been two straight years now where we've been like, well,

1200
01:00:54,840 --> 01:00:57,960
Speaker 2: Marseille could be really good, but then it doesn't really

1201
01:00:58,000 --> 01:01:00,920
Speaker 2: ever end up showing up on the pitch. You know,

1202
01:01:01,080 --> 01:01:04,640
Speaker 2: they get Obama Yang in, they get and Die in

1203
01:01:04,720 --> 01:01:07,640
Speaker 2: from Sheffield United, smile a sar like, They've made some

1204
01:01:07,800 --> 01:01:11,760
Speaker 2: really interesting signings again, so I'm kind of intrigued, but

1205
01:01:11,920 --> 01:01:13,960
Speaker 2: I'm not going to do it because the number is

1206
01:01:14,040 --> 01:01:15,880
Speaker 2: not that good and there's not that much of a

1207
01:01:15,960 --> 01:01:18,600
Speaker 2: gap between Leel and the rest of the team. The

1208
01:01:18,640 --> 01:01:21,600
Speaker 2: other the other team that caught my eye and that

1209
01:01:21,680 --> 01:01:24,400
Speaker 2: I think has had a quietly really good summer is Ren.

1210
01:01:25,400 --> 01:01:28,040
Speaker 2: If you look at you know where they bought, there's

1211
01:01:28,040 --> 01:01:30,800
Speaker 2: probably names you've never heard of, but it doesn't mean

1212
01:01:30,840 --> 01:01:34,160
Speaker 2: they haven't bought really interesting players. They get Enzo le

1213
01:01:34,320 --> 01:01:37,880
Speaker 2: Fe from Lorient, who was the best player midfielder for them,

1214
01:01:38,520 --> 01:01:41,080
Speaker 2: for twenty million. They go out and buy Ludovich Blase,

1215
01:01:41,120 --> 01:01:43,280
Speaker 2: who was the best player for not last year if

1216
01:01:43,320 --> 01:01:46,160
Speaker 2: you look at their underlying numbers, for fifteen million. So

1217
01:01:46,600 --> 01:01:48,520
Speaker 2: very quietly they went out and spent a little bit

1218
01:01:48,560 --> 01:01:53,400
Speaker 2: of money to get two very good attacking players and

1219
01:01:53,840 --> 01:01:56,520
Speaker 2: you know, they do lose a couple guys, you know,

1220
01:01:56,600 --> 01:02:00,640
Speaker 2: Bade and Uguchuku to Chelsea, like that will hurt, but

1221
01:02:01,880 --> 01:02:04,880
Speaker 2: this is still a team with you know, new players

1222
01:02:04,920 --> 01:02:06,840
Speaker 2: coming in that I like that have proven production in

1223
01:02:06,920 --> 01:02:10,840
Speaker 2: league on. They had a good, solid underlying base last year.

1224
01:02:10,920 --> 01:02:14,000
Speaker 2: They keep the majority of their goal scoring from last

1225
01:02:14,080 --> 01:02:18,560
Speaker 2: year too, So I'm into Ren. I think Wren, you

1226
01:02:18,640 --> 01:02:20,360
Speaker 2: can bet them if you want to bet them to

1227
01:02:20,360 --> 01:02:20,880
Speaker 2: win the league.

1228
01:02:21,440 --> 01:02:21,880
Speaker 1: I like that.

1229
01:02:22,160 --> 01:02:24,720
Speaker 2: I think they're interesting as a top four flyer at

1230
01:02:24,760 --> 01:02:27,920
Speaker 2: plus one sixty. I also think that they're interesting in

1231
01:02:28,040 --> 01:02:32,600
Speaker 2: a winner without PSG market as well, because they will

1232
01:02:32,680 --> 01:02:34,520
Speaker 2: be right up there with them, I think, and they've

1233
01:02:34,560 --> 01:02:37,480
Speaker 2: proven that they can they can kind of give PSG

1234
01:02:37,640 --> 01:02:39,440
Speaker 2: the work a little bit. They were very competitive with

1235
01:02:39,480 --> 01:02:43,160
Speaker 2: them last season, and this is two straight years where

1236
01:02:43,160 --> 01:02:45,360
Speaker 2: they've been really good. They keep ouregard, they keep greedy,

1237
01:02:45,600 --> 01:02:51,240
Speaker 2: so I like Ren. They they did beat PSG twice

1238
01:02:51,280 --> 01:02:53,160
Speaker 2: last year too, if that's worth anything to You don't

1239
01:02:53,200 --> 01:02:55,800
Speaker 2: really care about head to head, but I'm gonna go

1240
01:02:55,920 --> 01:03:00,880
Speaker 2: with Ren and Leo as my two teams to potentially

1241
01:03:00,880 --> 01:03:03,040
Speaker 2: steal this league in a wide open year, and it's

1242
01:03:03,040 --> 01:03:03,880
Speaker 2: gonna be very entertaining.

1243
01:03:04,960 --> 01:03:08,000
Speaker 1: PESG is so interesting to me because you know, they

1244
01:03:08,080 --> 01:03:10,320
Speaker 1: spent quite a bit of money this summer to bring

1245
01:03:10,400 --> 01:03:12,600
Speaker 1: in a number of players. You know, just got announced

1246
01:03:12,600 --> 01:03:15,920
Speaker 1: that Gonzala Ramos is coming over from Benfica. They bring

1247
01:03:15,960 --> 01:03:19,440
Speaker 1: in Kenyan Lee from Majorca, Asencio from Real Madrid. They

1248
01:03:19,520 --> 01:03:23,360
Speaker 1: solidify their defense with Lucas Hernandez from Byron Munich Screener

1249
01:03:23,440 --> 01:03:27,280
Speaker 1: from Inter They bring up with Ugarte from Lisbon. Like,

1250
01:03:27,400 --> 01:03:30,440
Speaker 1: they brought in a lot of players with some pretty

1251
01:03:30,520 --> 01:03:34,000
Speaker 1: that I think really helps them, mostly defensively. The question

1252
01:03:34,120 --> 01:03:36,000
Speaker 1: mark er at surrounding PSG is is if they do

1253
01:03:36,080 --> 01:03:38,280
Speaker 1: this stalemate and Abobe, whether he leaves or they just

1254
01:03:38,320 --> 01:03:41,520
Speaker 1: sit him on the bench for the entire season, how

1255
01:03:42,560 --> 01:03:45,080
Speaker 1: good are they going to be offensively? And can they

1256
01:03:45,800 --> 01:03:47,680
Speaker 1: you know, make up for the type of production that

1257
01:03:47,760 --> 01:03:50,560
Speaker 1: Inbape and Messi had less season Because Messi and and

1258
01:03:50,600 --> 01:03:53,800
Speaker 1: Babe last season combined for eight point six shots per

1259
01:03:53,880 --> 01:03:57,800
Speaker 1: ninety one point three expected goals and fifteen touches in

1260
01:03:57,840 --> 01:04:01,840
Speaker 1: the penalty year. That is massive, massive offensive numbers to

1261
01:04:01,920 --> 01:04:03,800
Speaker 1: make up for it, and I'm not sure. Listen, gun

1262
01:04:03,880 --> 01:04:05,520
Speaker 1: Sala Ramos is awesome. He had the hat trick in

1263
01:04:05,560 --> 01:04:08,600
Speaker 1: the World Cup. I'm not sure if he's ready to

1264
01:04:08,680 --> 01:04:11,040
Speaker 1: come in and just start putting up just crazy numbers

1265
01:04:11,120 --> 01:04:14,200
Speaker 1: like and Bope and Messi did last season. Then you

1266
01:04:14,320 --> 01:04:17,400
Speaker 1: look at you know, Messi was incredible in terms of creation,

1267
01:04:17,560 --> 01:04:19,720
Speaker 1: chance creation last season, one hundred and twenty passes in

1268
01:04:19,760 --> 01:04:22,320
Speaker 1: the penalty and Bope had seventy six. You go down

1269
01:04:22,360 --> 01:04:28,080
Speaker 1: the list. Their next two was Renetta Sanchez and Marco Varazzi. Well,

1270
01:04:28,520 --> 01:04:30,680
Speaker 1: Sanchez is rumored to be going on loan to Roma,

1271
01:04:30,840 --> 01:04:32,919
Speaker 1: Varazzi is rumored to be going to the Saudi League.

1272
01:04:33,040 --> 01:04:36,840
Speaker 1: So now you basically have this squad overhaul and transitional

1273
01:04:36,920 --> 01:04:40,120
Speaker 1: period from PSG, and it almost creates this perfect opportunity

1274
01:04:40,600 --> 01:04:43,560
Speaker 1: to pick them off and listen, even if you go

1275
01:04:43,680 --> 01:04:46,400
Speaker 1: back through PSG's season last year, if you remember the

1276
01:04:46,520 --> 01:04:49,280
Speaker 1: first six matches of the season, they looked like the

1277
01:04:49,360 --> 01:04:52,320
Speaker 1: best team ever assembled. I mean, they outscored their opponents

1278
01:04:52,360 --> 01:04:54,440
Speaker 1: twenty four to four. They put up eighteen point three

1279
01:04:54,480 --> 01:04:58,200
Speaker 1: expected goals, like they looked like they were just going

1280
01:04:58,240 --> 01:05:01,080
Speaker 1: to run away and destroy everybody. Then the Champions League started,

1281
01:05:01,120 --> 01:05:04,000
Speaker 1: they started focusing more on that because that's always been

1282
01:05:04,040 --> 01:05:06,439
Speaker 1: PSG's main goals to win the Champions League. They don't

1283
01:05:06,440 --> 01:05:09,200
Speaker 1: really They say they care, but they really don't care

1284
01:05:09,240 --> 01:05:11,000
Speaker 1: as much about league on and like they do the

1285
01:05:11,080 --> 01:05:14,600
Speaker 1: Champions League and their performances dropped down. If you look

1286
01:05:14,640 --> 01:05:19,000
Speaker 1: at just post World Cup, Lil had the best non

1287
01:05:19,040 --> 01:05:22,120
Speaker 1: penalty expected gold of Pfetial by four goals over Marseille.

1288
01:05:22,120 --> 01:05:25,680
Speaker 1: They were at plus nineteen since the since the world

1289
01:05:25,800 --> 01:05:28,480
Speaker 1: after the World Cup break. And what made Lil so good,

1290
01:05:28,560 --> 01:05:31,040
Speaker 1: like you mentioned their defense, which was amazing. I mean

1291
01:05:31,080 --> 01:05:34,200
Speaker 1: they allowed under thirty goals from open play. They you know,

1292
01:05:34,280 --> 01:05:37,400
Speaker 1: they were gonna be getting They're getting Jallo back, who

1293
01:05:37,680 --> 01:05:40,280
Speaker 1: missed the entire second half due to injury. You know,

1294
01:05:40,400 --> 01:05:42,680
Speaker 1: Jonathan David, like you mentioned, he's going to be back.

1295
01:05:43,000 --> 01:05:45,480
Speaker 1: He bagged twenty four goals last season. They kept their

1296
01:05:45,520 --> 01:05:50,120
Speaker 1: midfield together, they even brought in, you know, somewhat some

1297
01:05:50,240 --> 01:05:54,080
Speaker 1: good talent. And most importantly, they underperformed offensively thirty eight

1298
01:05:54,160 --> 01:05:58,640
Speaker 1: goals a forty eight expected post World Cup. And they

1299
01:05:58,720 --> 01:06:02,240
Speaker 1: kept their manager, Fanesca. He you know, he was rumored

1300
01:06:02,280 --> 01:06:03,800
Speaker 1: to go to Marseille. He was rumored to go to

1301
01:06:03,920 --> 01:06:05,720
Speaker 1: a bunch of different jobs. He turned all those jobs

1302
01:06:05,760 --> 01:06:08,120
Speaker 1: down to come back to LIL and this isn't the

1303
01:06:08,160 --> 01:06:10,400
Speaker 1: little team you know from a couple of years ago

1304
01:06:10,760 --> 01:06:12,920
Speaker 1: that was four four to two low block transitional, like,

1305
01:06:13,000 --> 01:06:14,840
Speaker 1: this is a little team that can control matches, can

1306
01:06:14,880 --> 01:06:18,360
Speaker 1: control possession. They controlled sixty point five percent possession last

1307
01:06:18,360 --> 01:06:21,920
Speaker 1: season on average. So at a price at thirty five

1308
01:06:21,960 --> 01:06:23,720
Speaker 1: to one, a team that's putting up this good of

1309
01:06:23,800 --> 01:06:28,200
Speaker 1: underlying metrics that basically kept their same squad together from

1310
01:06:28,320 --> 01:06:31,440
Speaker 1: last season, it's it's too good of a price to

1311
01:06:31,520 --> 01:06:34,240
Speaker 1: turn down at thirty five to one. So I'll be

1312
01:06:34,280 --> 01:06:36,520
Speaker 1: on Little at thirty five to one, as will you

1313
01:06:36,800 --> 01:06:39,960
Speaker 1: along with Ren in that market. But yeah, this is

1314
01:06:40,080 --> 01:06:43,360
Speaker 1: really a really good opportunity here. You know, we got

1315
01:06:43,440 --> 01:06:45,400
Speaker 1: this a couple of years ago when you know it

1316
01:06:45,440 --> 01:06:48,440
Speaker 1: did end up working out, but when Barcelona and Real

1317
01:06:48,520 --> 01:06:51,200
Speaker 1: Madrid were going through their financial fair play and you

1318
01:06:51,240 --> 01:06:54,880
Speaker 1: know all of their financial issues post COVID, there's only

1319
01:06:55,080 --> 01:06:57,880
Speaker 1: rare instances where you get a chance to really fade

1320
01:06:57,960 --> 01:06:59,880
Speaker 1: these top tier clubs that you know, like a by

1321
01:07:00,000 --> 01:07:02,360
Speaker 1: Iron or PSG in their individual leagues. And I think

1322
01:07:02,360 --> 01:07:04,959
Speaker 1: this is a perfect opportunity to do it in League

1323
01:07:04,960 --> 01:07:06,800
Speaker 1: GNE with a team that actually knocked PSG off the

1324
01:07:06,840 --> 01:07:09,560
Speaker 1: perch two years ago to win the league of fifty

1325
01:07:09,600 --> 01:07:11,800
Speaker 1: to one. So I think it's a good price on

1326
01:07:12,280 --> 01:07:13,320
Speaker 1: LIL at thirty five.

1327
01:07:13,400 --> 01:07:16,160
Speaker 2: Yeah, real quick. You know, Lenz finishes second, they lose Opende,

1328
01:07:16,240 --> 01:07:19,840
Speaker 2: they lose Fofana haven't been that active in the transfer market.

1329
01:07:20,120 --> 01:07:22,960
Speaker 2: I'm kind of expecting a big regression year from them, yep,

1330
01:07:23,080 --> 01:07:27,680
Speaker 2: without the goals. Monico and Leone both had decent seasons,

1331
01:07:28,520 --> 01:07:31,080
Speaker 2: but they both just kind of start from a really

1332
01:07:31,160 --> 01:07:33,400
Speaker 2: low defensive baseline to the point where I don't really

1333
01:07:33,440 --> 01:07:36,080
Speaker 2: trust them to hold up over the course of a

1334
01:07:36,480 --> 01:07:39,479
Speaker 2: thirty four match season. So that's why I'm I'm into

1335
01:07:39,600 --> 01:07:42,440
Speaker 2: the other two. Like I said, Leo to win the

1336
01:07:42,520 --> 01:07:45,560
Speaker 2: league ren winner without PSG. Also like the top four

1337
01:07:45,640 --> 01:07:50,920
Speaker 2: plus one sixty, So yeah, riding those teams and it's

1338
01:07:50,920 --> 01:07:52,280
Speaker 2: gonna be a really fun league on this season.

1339
01:07:52,600 --> 01:07:54,800
Speaker 1: It is going to be fun. So let's move to

1340
01:07:54,880 --> 01:07:58,280
Speaker 1: relegation because, like you mentioned, we're moving to eighteen teams,

1341
01:07:58,880 --> 01:08:01,080
Speaker 1: so that means there are for a lot of these

1342
01:08:01,120 --> 01:08:03,240
Speaker 1: teams near the bottom of the table, there are four

1343
01:08:03,360 --> 01:08:08,720
Speaker 1: less matches against you know, relegation type fodder, and one

1344
01:08:08,760 --> 01:08:10,240
Speaker 1: team that caught my eye when I was going through

1345
01:08:10,280 --> 01:08:12,560
Speaker 1: the odds, it is kind of a short price Sat

1346
01:08:12,600 --> 01:08:16,520
Speaker 1: de Bresois at plus one sixty eight to be relegated.

1347
01:08:16,880 --> 01:08:19,120
Speaker 1: I mean, this team was the definition of below average

1348
01:08:19,200 --> 01:08:22,960
Speaker 1: last season. They did finish nine points from safety, but

1349
01:08:23,080 --> 01:08:25,600
Speaker 1: they had the second worst to expect a goldfferential of

1350
01:08:25,720 --> 01:08:28,120
Speaker 1: the teams that survived. You know, Lorient had the worst.

1351
01:08:28,280 --> 01:08:31,200
Speaker 1: But I think Lorient made a couple moves this summer

1352
01:08:31,240 --> 01:08:32,920
Speaker 1: that I think will make them a little bit better. Also,

1353
01:08:32,960 --> 01:08:36,840
Speaker 1: they're owned by the same team as Bournemouth, so they

1354
01:08:36,840 --> 01:08:38,760
Speaker 1: see excive me the same owner as Bournemouth, so you

1355
01:08:38,840 --> 01:08:41,240
Speaker 1: might see they have some money to play around in

1356
01:08:41,280 --> 01:08:44,000
Speaker 1: the transfer market. And you know Bress just sold their

1357
01:08:44,000 --> 01:08:49,600
Speaker 1: best attacking player Horner rats too Glodbach. So there you go,

1358
01:08:49,720 --> 01:08:53,000
Speaker 1: there's your attacking talent coming over Anthony to Glodbach point

1359
01:08:53,120 --> 01:08:56,759
Speaker 1: five point five x G plus expected SIS rate. Last season,

1360
01:08:57,760 --> 01:09:00,720
Speaker 1: they brought back Martin Satriano on loan. He was on

1361
01:09:00,800 --> 01:09:02,560
Speaker 1: loan two years ago from them from intern try to

1362
01:09:02,600 --> 01:09:04,680
Speaker 1: bolster their offense. He didn't have a great season then

1363
01:09:04,920 --> 01:09:08,439
Speaker 1: limited sample size, wasn't really that effective offensively. They made

1364
01:09:08,479 --> 01:09:11,040
Speaker 1: a managerial change in the middle of the season brought

1365
01:09:11,080 --> 01:09:14,080
Speaker 1: in Eric Roy, who hadn't managed since twenty eleven, didn't

1366
01:09:14,120 --> 01:09:16,800
Speaker 1: go very well second worst expect a goal differential of

1367
01:09:17,000 --> 01:09:21,559
Speaker 1: the newly promoted teams over his sample size in charge

1368
01:09:21,600 --> 01:09:24,799
Speaker 1: with twenty one matches. I think there's some real bottoming

1369
01:09:24,800 --> 01:09:26,719
Speaker 1: out potential. I mean, the squad is the fourth lowest

1370
01:09:26,720 --> 01:09:30,080
Speaker 1: squad transfer value on per transfer market dot com. If

1371
01:09:30,080 --> 01:09:32,000
Speaker 1: they put up worse offensive numbers than they did last

1372
01:09:32,080 --> 01:09:34,200
Speaker 1: year where they couldn't even average over one non penalty

1373
01:09:34,240 --> 01:09:36,880
Speaker 1: expect goal for ninety I think they could very easily

1374
01:09:36,920 --> 01:09:40,400
Speaker 1: get relegated. So and you know there's a change here.

1375
01:09:40,640 --> 01:09:42,240
Speaker 1: You know with France, you know they go back to

1376
01:09:42,320 --> 01:09:44,760
Speaker 1: eighteen teams, but like I mentioned, you know, the top

1377
01:09:44,840 --> 01:09:49,040
Speaker 1: bottom two teams get automatically relegated and then that seventeenth place,

1378
01:09:49,280 --> 01:09:52,000
Speaker 1: much like Germany, is a relegation playoff with third place

1379
01:09:52,080 --> 01:09:55,240
Speaker 1: team in the second division. So they could verily easily

1380
01:09:55,520 --> 01:09:58,719
Speaker 1: drop down to at least seventeenth here potentially to get relegated.

1381
01:09:58,800 --> 01:10:00,720
Speaker 1: So that's the only thing that my eye in terms

1382
01:10:00,760 --> 01:10:05,880
Speaker 1: of relegation in ligue on one more before we get

1383
01:10:05,920 --> 01:10:10,040
Speaker 1: out of here, Golden boot, because you know, obviously Killian

1384
01:10:10,080 --> 01:10:13,160
Speaker 1: Embappe is the overwhelming favorite, but we don't know what's

1385
01:10:13,240 --> 01:10:16,200
Speaker 1: going to happen with him right now. And this market.

1386
01:10:16,439 --> 01:10:18,840
Speaker 1: Anthony is also very interesting because if you look at

1387
01:10:18,880 --> 01:10:22,280
Speaker 1: some of the top names from last season, they're gone.

1388
01:10:22,960 --> 01:10:27,200
Speaker 1: Baligan is gone, Lionelle Messi is gone, Openda is gone.

1389
01:10:27,960 --> 01:10:30,120
Speaker 1: So that leaves a couple names. You know, Jonathan David

1390
01:10:30,200 --> 01:10:31,760
Speaker 1: is eight to one in this market. That's all too

1391
01:10:31,800 --> 01:10:34,280
Speaker 1: short for me to take that type of price. You know,

1392
01:10:34,360 --> 01:10:36,680
Speaker 1: Lacazette is next at ten to one. He's getting a

1393
01:10:36,720 --> 01:10:38,200
Speaker 1: little bit up there, even though he put up great

1394
01:10:38,240 --> 01:10:41,080
Speaker 1: shot numbers. So it kind of landed me on one name.

1395
01:10:41,360 --> 01:10:43,759
Speaker 1: I was going through a couple of you know, Tererem

1396
01:10:43,800 --> 01:10:45,840
Speaker 1: Mophi was kind of interesting, but he just didn't get

1397
01:10:45,840 --> 01:10:49,240
Speaker 1: the type of XG for ninety numbers that you need

1398
01:10:49,720 --> 01:10:53,400
Speaker 1: to win this type of award. So I settled on

1399
01:10:53,560 --> 01:10:58,000
Speaker 1: Wasim Ben Yettter from Monaco at fourteen to one. Very

1400
01:10:58,160 --> 01:11:00,559
Speaker 1: very interesting profile. Obviously, is getting up there in age.

1401
01:11:00,600 --> 01:11:03,240
Speaker 1: He's thirty one now, only played a little over twenty

1402
01:11:03,320 --> 01:11:06,839
Speaker 1: three nineties last season, but in those twenty three nineties

1403
01:11:07,280 --> 01:11:10,720
Speaker 1: he put up a point seven to four actually per

1404
01:11:10,800 --> 01:11:13,160
Speaker 1: ninety minute scoring rate that was third in League N

1405
01:11:13,320 --> 01:11:16,320
Speaker 1: only to Imbappe and Baligan. He was only getting two

1406
01:11:16,320 --> 01:11:18,880
Speaker 1: point eight shots FORER ninety. Increased competition from Bolo and

1407
01:11:18,960 --> 01:11:21,240
Speaker 1: they in the lineup, you know, reduces his shots for

1408
01:11:21,280 --> 01:11:23,320
Speaker 1: NINETI but he is the one that takes penalties, which

1409
01:11:23,320 --> 01:11:25,760
Speaker 1: obviously you need for the Golden Boot, and over the

1410
01:11:25,840 --> 01:11:28,639
Speaker 1: last three seasons he scored twenty three goals from the penalties.

1411
01:11:28,640 --> 01:11:31,559
Speaker 1: He's very very good at them. And Monico's the offense

1412
01:11:31,640 --> 01:11:34,200
Speaker 1: last season was top five and XG. They won't be

1413
01:11:34,280 --> 01:11:36,800
Speaker 1: taking part in any European competition, so Ben Yettter at

1414
01:11:36,840 --> 01:11:39,320
Speaker 1: thirty one, can put all of his focus into League On,

1415
01:11:39,439 --> 01:11:42,639
Speaker 1: hopefully can play over thirty nineties, get decent shot numbers

1416
01:11:42,760 --> 01:11:47,080
Speaker 1: continue at x G for ninety and what should be

1417
01:11:47,120 --> 01:11:50,519
Speaker 1: a very very interesting Golden Boot race if Imbope is

1418
01:11:50,840 --> 01:11:54,679
Speaker 1: not involved in it, So that isolanded on ben Yette

1419
01:11:55,080 --> 01:11:58,120
Speaker 1: at fourteen to one. You know, Gonzala Ramos just came

1420
01:11:58,200 --> 01:12:00,760
Speaker 1: over from from Benfica. I'll be interested to see what

1421
01:12:00,840 --> 01:12:02,360
Speaker 1: his odds are in this Golden Boo market.

1422
01:12:02,960 --> 01:12:05,280
Speaker 2: I don't think I put his name two seventy five.

1423
01:12:06,160 --> 01:12:09,479
Speaker 1: Plus two seventy five? Are you being serious?

1424
01:12:10,479 --> 01:12:11,040
Speaker 2: That's serious.

1425
01:12:11,200 --> 01:12:12,679
Speaker 1: That's so short. Oh my gosh.

1426
01:12:12,920 --> 01:12:14,320
Speaker 2: I was gonna say that if he was like six

1427
01:12:14,400 --> 01:12:16,080
Speaker 2: seven to one, I was gonna find out. I was

1428
01:12:16,120 --> 01:12:18,240
Speaker 2: gonna say that five is terrible. Ben three sixty five

1429
01:12:18,280 --> 01:12:20,960
Speaker 2: has it up, and Bape plus one fifty, Ramos plus

1430
01:12:21,000 --> 01:12:25,439
Speaker 2: two seventy five, then David Laca, Ben yet Er Neymar

1431
01:12:26,600 --> 01:12:31,040
Speaker 2: then you get down the list. But I had no

1432
01:12:31,160 --> 01:12:34,639
Speaker 2: real lean here. To be honest, don't love Benyadeer because

1433
01:12:34,640 --> 01:12:35,920
Speaker 2: he's kind of on the way down for me. I

1434
01:12:35,920 --> 01:12:37,880
Speaker 2: don't know that he'll stay fit enough. But if he

1435
01:12:37,920 --> 01:12:40,880
Speaker 2: plays thirty nineties, then yeah, he's for sure live.

1436
01:12:41,160 --> 01:12:43,080
Speaker 1: And that's the hope here because you know they're not again,

1437
01:12:43,080 --> 01:12:45,320
Speaker 1: they're not gonna play in Europe, so he can focus in.

1438
01:12:45,439 --> 01:12:48,000
Speaker 1: You know, it's only thirty four matches now, not thirty eight,

1439
01:12:48,240 --> 01:12:52,040
Speaker 1: so you really just need him to peak for you know,

1440
01:12:52,120 --> 01:12:54,320
Speaker 1: get keep that same actually for ninety minute up, which

1441
01:12:54,320 --> 01:12:58,479
Speaker 1: he has done the last few seasons. Ramonico team putting

1442
01:12:58,479 --> 01:13:01,320
Speaker 1: all their folks in a league on so we'll see,

1443
01:13:01,720 --> 01:13:04,559
Speaker 1: you know. I also just saw that today Monaco made

1444
01:13:04,560 --> 01:13:07,280
Speaker 1: a bid for for Ballion, so that makes things also

1445
01:13:07,439 --> 01:13:11,200
Speaker 1: very interesting. So I haven't bet ben Yette yet. But

1446
01:13:11,200 --> 01:13:13,680
Speaker 1: I'm gonna wait until you know the gun opens on

1447
01:13:13,760 --> 01:13:17,360
Speaker 1: Friday to see and if it's there and Balikan hasn't

1448
01:13:17,360 --> 01:13:20,280
Speaker 1: came over with Marsenall yet, I'll be hitting benyettter at

1449
01:13:20,320 --> 01:13:23,120
Speaker 1: fourteen to one. I got to give out one more

1450
01:13:23,160 --> 01:13:25,960
Speaker 1: bet that really really caught my eye when I was

1451
01:13:26,000 --> 01:13:27,639
Speaker 1: going through it. I've already put it out on Twitter.

1452
01:13:28,320 --> 01:13:30,160
Speaker 1: It's a limited market. I think you know Bet three

1453
01:13:30,200 --> 01:13:32,559
Speaker 1: sixty five has it up. You can find also one

1454
01:13:32,680 --> 01:13:35,679
Speaker 1: hundred and fifty to one out there. The Dutch second Division,

1455
01:13:35,680 --> 01:13:38,840
Speaker 1: also known as the Euresta de Vise, the IXU twenty

1456
01:13:38,880 --> 01:13:41,080
Speaker 1: one team is one hundred and fifty to one. Last

1457
01:13:41,120 --> 01:13:44,160
Speaker 1: season they finished sixth then expected older thrensial her transfer

1458
01:13:44,240 --> 01:13:47,000
Speaker 1: market dot com. They have the second highest squad transfer

1459
01:13:47,120 --> 01:13:50,160
Speaker 1: value of anybody in that second division. They obviously can't

1460
01:13:50,160 --> 01:13:53,320
Speaker 1: get promoted if they win. But for a team that

1461
01:13:53,600 --> 01:13:57,040
Speaker 1: is essentially the second most talented, that has put up

1462
01:13:57,040 --> 01:13:59,320
Speaker 1: top six numbers, be sitting at one hundred and fifty

1463
01:13:59,320 --> 01:14:01,000
Speaker 1: to one is a little crazy. So if you want

1464
01:14:01,000 --> 01:14:03,760
Speaker 1: to have some fun in the second division, I asked

1465
01:14:03,760 --> 01:14:06,320
Speaker 1: you twenty one team I think as a legitimate shot

1466
01:14:06,400 --> 01:14:07,920
Speaker 1: to win that you.

1467
01:14:07,960 --> 01:14:10,599
Speaker 2: Already told me. I'm gonna bet it. Set off this show.

1468
01:14:11,400 --> 01:14:13,400
Speaker 2: Let's do like a quick, little like rapid fire recap,

1469
01:14:13,560 --> 01:14:16,120
Speaker 2: just kind of like what we generally like so Bundesliga.

1470
01:14:16,160 --> 01:14:19,160
Speaker 2: We're both on Leipzig to be the best non Byron team.

1471
01:14:19,160 --> 01:14:20,960
Speaker 2: We think Byron is a little bit cheap to win

1472
01:14:21,000 --> 01:14:24,040
Speaker 2: the league. I'm an agreement on that because I don't

1473
01:14:24,040 --> 01:14:26,719
Speaker 2: think they're going to go into the season without addressing striker.

1474
01:14:27,000 --> 01:14:29,080
Speaker 2: So if they don't get Kane, I think Kolamwani is

1475
01:14:29,120 --> 01:14:31,400
Speaker 2: a name that may move. I think there's no way

1476
01:14:31,479 --> 01:14:34,600
Speaker 2: that Chukl goes into the year with just cubamoting. I

1477
01:14:34,640 --> 01:14:37,160
Speaker 2: think that's a real risk play, and I think Byron

1478
01:14:37,200 --> 01:14:39,880
Speaker 2: will spend to make sure that they're not in danger there.

1479
01:14:39,960 --> 01:14:44,400
Speaker 2: And Dortmund losing Bellingham and Guerrero hurts. So we like Leipzig.

1480
01:14:45,200 --> 01:14:49,040
Speaker 2: We threw out potential relegation flyers on on Hoffenheim and

1481
01:14:49,479 --> 01:14:54,040
Speaker 2: on Gladbach. You also like Osburg to be relegated. Plus

1482
01:14:54,080 --> 01:14:57,679
Speaker 2: T twenty five the luck box runs out of batteries

1483
01:14:57,720 --> 01:15:00,600
Speaker 2: potentially in Italy, we kind of agreed. The market is

1484
01:15:00,640 --> 01:15:03,400
Speaker 2: a little bit uninteresting at the moment. Yeah, but we

1485
01:15:03,479 --> 01:15:06,360
Speaker 2: did mention Fiorentine as a potential sleeper. You think Salanyitana

1486
01:15:06,439 --> 01:15:09,200
Speaker 2: finally goes down after they've beat relegation off for a

1487
01:15:09,240 --> 01:15:11,720
Speaker 2: couple of years. We agree Napoli should be a slight

1488
01:15:11,800 --> 01:15:13,720
Speaker 2: favorite of our inter for the league three to one,

1489
01:15:13,920 --> 01:15:17,400
Speaker 2: decent price, maybe not quite good enough cile start in

1490
01:15:18,200 --> 01:15:20,040
Speaker 2: La Liga. I'm all over Barsa to win the league

1491
01:15:20,040 --> 01:15:21,720
Speaker 2: at plus one forty. I don't think they're worse than

1492
01:15:21,760 --> 01:15:26,800
Speaker 2: Real Madrid. I love Sociadad top four and top three.

1493
01:15:27,040 --> 01:15:29,760
Speaker 2: You like Billbao. We are both out on Sevilla and

1494
01:15:29,960 --> 01:15:33,920
Speaker 2: Via Real as potential threats. And then in Ligan it's

1495
01:15:33,960 --> 01:15:37,839
Speaker 2: all leo baby, all lel all the time. Against PSG,

1496
01:15:37,920 --> 01:15:40,120
Speaker 2: we're playing against them. Also, I like Ren and you

1497
01:15:40,200 --> 01:15:42,559
Speaker 2: think Brest is the team that could go down Stat

1498
01:15:42,600 --> 01:15:46,519
Speaker 2: de Bresois this season. As the eighteen team French League

1499
01:15:46,640 --> 01:15:50,439
Speaker 2: gets underway this weekend. That's right, So we will have

1500
01:15:50,520 --> 01:15:53,599
Speaker 2: written previews for all of these leagues. BJ's covering France

1501
01:15:53,680 --> 01:15:57,280
Speaker 2: and Spain this week. I will be covering Italy and

1502
01:15:57,400 --> 01:15:59,599
Speaker 2: Germany next week. You can find that in the Action

1503
01:15:59,640 --> 01:16:02,679
Speaker 2: Network app on our website as well, and I'll probably

1504
01:16:02,960 --> 01:16:04,479
Speaker 2: we'll tweet them all out as well, and we also

1505
01:16:04,520 --> 01:16:07,599
Speaker 2: have our Premier League stuff coming out this week, rolling

1506
01:16:07,640 --> 01:16:11,439
Speaker 2: out team by team previews. So so much fun. We

1507
01:16:11,600 --> 01:16:13,720
Speaker 2: have so much soccer to talk about. Women's World Cup.

1508
01:16:13,760 --> 01:16:16,840
Speaker 2: We're doing a pod Wednesday, so it's a crazy time

1509
01:16:16,880 --> 01:16:18,479
Speaker 2: of the year for Wonder Goal, but it's very exciting

1510
01:16:19,000 --> 01:16:21,040
Speaker 2: it is. How about those how about those.

1511
01:16:20,880 --> 01:16:23,880
Speaker 1: Sees, how about those suites. Let's hopefully by the time

1512
01:16:23,920 --> 01:16:25,600
Speaker 1: we get done recording this, they've beat in Japan and

1513
01:16:25,640 --> 01:16:29,240
Speaker 1: got into the semi finals. So that's a good note,

1514
01:16:30,120 --> 01:16:31,960
Speaker 1: a programming note here for Wonder Goal. So if you

1515
01:16:32,080 --> 01:16:35,240
Speaker 1: haven't listened yet to our Premier League preview episode that

1516
01:16:35,280 --> 01:16:37,800
Speaker 1: we already did, go listen to that. Go listen to

1517
01:16:37,960 --> 01:16:40,120
Speaker 1: our point total Premier League draft with our good friend

1518
01:16:40,200 --> 01:16:43,680
Speaker 1: Alon Shapiro from the fml FPL pod. We will be

1519
01:16:44,439 --> 01:16:49,200
Speaker 1: obviously recording for the Women's World Cup quarterfinals coming up

1520
01:16:49,280 --> 01:16:53,160
Speaker 1: here on Wednesday, as well for our match Week one

1521
01:16:53,680 --> 01:16:56,680
Speaker 1: Premier League episode that'll come out. Both those will come

1522
01:16:56,720 --> 01:17:00,840
Speaker 1: out on Thursday morning. For Antony du bund He. I'm

1523
01:17:00,920 --> 01:17:04,160
Speaker 1: BJ Cunningham. Thank you all for listening, good luck with

1524
01:17:04,200 --> 01:17:07,160
Speaker 1: your wagers, and we'll see you on Thursday.

1525
01:17:13,600 --> 01:17:18,080
Speaker 2: Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly. If you or

1526
01:17:18,120 --> 01:17:20,920
Speaker 2: someone you care about has a gambling problem, help is

1527
01:17:20,920 --> 01:17:24,040
Speaker 2: available twenty four to seven at one eight hundred Gambler