WEBVTT - The Realignment of Global Dollar Policy Will Boost Gold 0:00:01.400 --> 0:00:04.120 Welcome to the Bloomberg Markets Podcast. I'm Paul Sweeney, along 0:00:04.120 --> 0:00:06.200 with my co host of Bonnie Quinn. Every business day 0:00:06.240 --> 0:00:09.280 we bring you interviews from CEOs, A, market pros and 0:00:09.400 --> 0:00:12.799 Bloomberg experts, along with essential market moving news. Kind of 0:00:12.800 --> 0:00:16.320 Bloomberg Markets Podcast on Apple Podcasts or wherever you listen 0:00:16.360 --> 0:00:20.479 to podcasts, and on Bloomberg dot com. Well, it is 0:00:20.480 --> 0:00:22.920 time to have a look at precious metals, and by 0:00:22.920 --> 0:00:25.279 that we're not really talking bitcoin all. Little bitcoin itself 0:00:25.360 --> 0:00:27.400 is getting more precious by the day. Let's bring in 0:00:27.440 --> 0:00:32.080 Everett Moment precious metal specialists with Gainesville Coins. Let's begin, though, 0:00:32.080 --> 0:00:35.040 with a traditional special metal, and that would be gold. Everett, 0:00:35.040 --> 0:00:38.040 we saw it rise plenty, even though you know it 0:00:38.159 --> 0:00:40.640 wasn't quite obvious what it was rising on. What are 0:00:40.640 --> 0:00:42.920 the risks out there that people are are using golds 0:00:42.920 --> 0:00:46.800 to hedge for. Well, thanks for having me on UM. 0:00:46.840 --> 0:00:49.760 As we've seen, volatility has been essential part of the 0:00:49.800 --> 0:00:52.800 gold trade. Recently, I think the return of risk on 0:00:52.920 --> 0:00:56.080 sentiment has robbed gold of some of its appeal, and 0:00:56.120 --> 0:00:59.040 in the short run we should expect UM some more 0:00:59.120 --> 0:01:01.720 volatility with in or trading volumes. This week with the 0:01:01.760 --> 0:01:05.880 Thanksgiving holiday. But once the dust settles on the vaccine 0:01:05.880 --> 0:01:10.440 news and this protracted election transition, I believe that the 0:01:10.480 --> 0:01:14.479 attention of the gold market will return back to the fundamentals, 0:01:14.520 --> 0:01:18.240 and that mainly means the FED, UM and other central banks. 0:01:18.240 --> 0:01:21.479 In fact, we've seen that the ECB has come out 0:01:21.680 --> 0:01:25.880 and reiterated its commitment to supporting markets. UM. Beijing just 0:01:26.000 --> 0:01:29.640 recently sold his first negative yielding bonds, and this is 0:01:29.680 --> 0:01:32.640 about the most doublish that the FED Federal Reserve has 0:01:32.680 --> 0:01:35.959 been in a generation. All of that leads me to 0:01:35.959 --> 0:01:39.479 believe that currencies are going to take a hit going forward. UM. 0:01:39.480 --> 0:01:42.440 It seems like a pretty reasonable expectation that the dollar 0:01:42.560 --> 0:01:45.360 will slump a bit heading into next year and beyond, 0:01:45.480 --> 0:01:49.760 and that's rather positive for commodities as a whole. Another 0:01:49.840 --> 0:01:53.600 development that we all know has been a rather strange 0:01:53.680 --> 0:01:56.920 year for markets, there's no denying that, and one aspect 0:01:57.000 --> 0:01:59.240 of that is that the gold market has really shrugged 0:01:59.240 --> 0:02:03.200 off any sasonality. UM, any of the normal seasonal flows. 0:02:03.600 --> 0:02:06.160 I've really been ignored UM. And as I said, I 0:02:06.240 --> 0:02:08.400 think as the news calms down a bit in the 0:02:08.480 --> 0:02:13.480 coming weeks, that we will actually see seasonality reassert itself. 0:02:13.639 --> 0:02:18.080 So that means the traditional wedding season in India and 0:02:18.120 --> 0:02:20.200 the fact that in a few weeks we have the 0:02:20.320 --> 0:02:23.959 Chinese lunar New Year coming up. All of that signals 0:02:24.000 --> 0:02:26.480 that we're going to see a resurgence in physical demand 0:02:26.520 --> 0:02:30.320 for gold coming from the East. So it's interesting. Uh Ever, 0:02:30.520 --> 0:02:33.919 just looking at gold here, spot called up about year today, 0:02:33.919 --> 0:02:37.120 but it feels kind of range bound here. You know, 0:02:37.160 --> 0:02:40.000 we is there a call here where gold gets to 0:02:40.240 --> 0:02:44.840 back up to two thousand dollars announced? Absolutely, I think 0:02:44.880 --> 0:02:47.400 that it's the gold bowls will have to be patient 0:02:47.560 --> 0:02:49.920 for that. Um. There is a lot of noise and 0:02:49.960 --> 0:02:53.079 a lot of stuff obviously going on over these next 0:02:53.120 --> 0:02:55.760 few weeks. But um, you know, when you look at 0:02:55.800 --> 0:02:59.120 some of the sales numbers from like the United States Mint, 0:02:59.440 --> 0:03:02.560 there are prong one million hounces of total gold sales 0:03:03.040 --> 0:03:06.160 for the calendar year. That's already about five times higher 0:03:06.480 --> 0:03:09.200 than we saw for all of two thousand nineteen. So 0:03:09.280 --> 0:03:12.280 from a cyclical perspective, I believe we're in the early 0:03:12.320 --> 0:03:17.320 innings of another bull market for commodities generally. And uh, 0:03:17.360 --> 0:03:19.760 if gold, you know, has maybe lost some of its 0:03:19.960 --> 0:03:23.280 safe Hagan appeal, I would point to its role as 0:03:23.320 --> 0:03:26.640 a bet against the dollar, or really a hedge against 0:03:26.639 --> 0:03:30.600 that potential paradigm shift in the dollars status. We've seen 0:03:31.040 --> 0:03:34.800 this continued trend where economic power and trade supremacy is 0:03:35.080 --> 0:03:38.280 tilting more towards China in the East than it really 0:03:38.320 --> 0:03:41.040 ever has. And what you find is that in that 0:03:41.200 --> 0:03:44.000 region of the world, those countries are rather united in 0:03:44.480 --> 0:03:47.920 finding a more neutral reserve asset as a central part 0:03:47.920 --> 0:03:51.320 of monetary policy. That could be really anything other than 0:03:51.360 --> 0:03:54.840 the hegemonic US dollar, but in this case it's typically gold, 0:03:55.240 --> 0:03:58.400 and that does have profound implications for the next twenty 0:03:58.480 --> 0:04:01.960 to five years of economic history. The last time we 0:04:01.960 --> 0:04:05.680 saw a meaningful realignment of what you might call global 0:04:05.760 --> 0:04:08.800 dollar policy was more than thirty five years ago with 0:04:08.840 --> 0:04:11.600 the Planet Accord, and I'm not alone in thinking that 0:04:11.760 --> 0:04:15.600 some similar adjustment of that arrangement, or a reset, if 0:04:15.600 --> 0:04:18.640 you will, is going to be necessary in the coming decades. 0:04:19.200 --> 0:04:22.000 Based upon the current macro trends that we're seeing, it's 0:04:22.000 --> 0:04:25.280 a fairly reasonable assumption that whatever that realignment looks like 0:04:25.400 --> 0:04:27.919 with respect to the dollar um it's likely to be 0:04:28.040 --> 0:04:31.479 rather positive for gold. So to answer your question, you know, 0:04:31.560 --> 0:04:36.400 gold really is uh, behaving as a hedge against any 0:04:36.440 --> 0:04:41.480 sort of currency weakness, the dollar included. So who are 0:04:41.520 --> 0:04:45.800 these days considers bitcoin a Persson metal. Well, as you 0:04:45.839 --> 0:04:48.040 said at the top, it's it's getting more precious by 0:04:48.040 --> 0:04:51.359 the day, isn't it. Um. It's not entirely surprising to 0:04:51.400 --> 0:04:55.240 me to see bitpoint bitcoin getting a lot more attention 0:04:55.240 --> 0:04:56.960 and a lot more hype now for many of the 0:04:57.040 --> 0:05:00.560 same reasons I just described with gold. Um. There is 0:05:00.600 --> 0:05:03.320 sort of a generational or cyclical shift going on in 0:05:03.360 --> 0:05:08.919 monetary policy, and bitcoin offers some alternative to the standard 0:05:09.320 --> 0:05:12.880 dollar as a global reserve currency. Now, I don't mean 0:05:12.960 --> 0:05:15.800 to suggest that it will popp all the dollar uh 0:05:15.839 --> 0:05:17.760 in the next few months here, or even maybe in 0:05:17.800 --> 0:05:20.320 the next two or three years, but it really does 0:05:20.360 --> 0:05:23.880 deserve the attention it's getting because we're in uncharted territory 0:05:24.520 --> 0:05:26.840 as far as central bank policy goes. So I think 0:05:27.160 --> 0:05:29.760 bitcoin will continue to get attention, it will continue to 0:05:29.839 --> 0:05:34.200 absorb some of these alternate dollar or alternate currency bets 0:05:34.279 --> 0:05:39.360 that investors are making. Hey, every thirty seconds here spots silver. 0:05:39.400 --> 0:05:41.120 I see is up thirty two year to date. That 0:05:41.160 --> 0:05:43.240 kind of gets lost in some of the discussions here 0:05:43.240 --> 0:05:47.040 what's the call on silver here? Right? Silver has maintained 0:05:47.080 --> 0:05:50.440 some positive momentum. Um. It benefits from the fact that 0:05:50.520 --> 0:05:53.320 it is partly an industrial metal. So as we've seen 0:05:53.360 --> 0:05:56.080 with copper rallying, uh, silver has held up a little 0:05:56.080 --> 0:05:58.280 bit better than gold. The main thing I'm launching with 0:05:58.320 --> 0:06:02.039 silver has been some instability in Latin America. UM. I 0:06:02.040 --> 0:06:04.640 think Peru is on its third president in the Spain 0:06:04.680 --> 0:06:06.919 of about a week. UM. So many of the major 0:06:06.960 --> 0:06:11.120 silver producing countries in Latin America seeing some political instabilities 0:06:11.120 --> 0:06:14.560 from unrest that could affect the silver supply and drive 0:06:14.640 --> 0:06:18.200 prices higher going forward. Ever, thank you so much for 0:06:18.279 --> 0:06:20.480 joining us. We always appreciate chatting with you, getting your 0:06:20.520 --> 0:06:23.000 thoughts on all things on the precious metal side of 0:06:23.080 --> 0:06:27.599 the business. Everett Millman, precious Metal Specialists for Gainesville Coins, 0:06:27.640 --> 0:06:34.080 based in Gainesville, Florida. Well, it is time to bring 0:06:34.120 --> 0:06:36.760 in bankers the world. Bill rose to talk to us 0:06:36.760 --> 0:06:40.320 a little bit about what exactly is happening virtually this year, 0:06:40.440 --> 0:06:43.160 and given that we're just off the G twenty, we're 0:06:43.400 --> 0:06:46.040 better at to start than at the G twenty. Bill, 0:06:46.120 --> 0:06:48.839 what were the conversations that sort of struck you that 0:06:48.920 --> 0:06:50.920 we're taking place at the G twenty this year of 0:06:51.040 --> 0:06:54.400 all years. Well versall, Ronnie, it's very good to be 0:06:54.480 --> 0:06:58.680 with you and Paul again. This meeting was unusual in 0:06:58.720 --> 0:07:02.000 the sense that um it was the first one chaired 0:07:02.000 --> 0:07:04.560 by an hour member of the of the Group of twenty. 0:07:04.960 --> 0:07:09.039 Saudi Arabian reod obviously was done virtually and the whole 0:07:09.080 --> 0:07:15.720 idea he was to concentrate on on COVID uh pandemic 0:07:16.640 --> 0:07:19.680 UH and the fallout on the world economy, because the 0:07:19.720 --> 0:07:23.440 first one of these was held by George Bush Jr. 0:07:23.480 --> 0:07:30.200 At the time of the the Great economic Recession to 0:07:30.320 --> 0:07:33.720 try and see what the economic response could be. So 0:07:33.800 --> 0:07:39.320 what was covered here was basically, UH, the economy UH. 0:07:39.400 --> 0:07:44.280 They got into climate change UH. And obviously what could 0:07:44.280 --> 0:07:47.680 be done about speeding of vaccines and making sure they 0:07:47.720 --> 0:07:52.880 were equally distributed around the world. UH, And the whole 0:07:52.960 --> 0:07:56.480 question of world trade given how the economy of the 0:07:56.520 --> 0:08:02.000 world is going. But there were no Pacific new UH, 0:08:02.080 --> 0:08:06.440 let's say initiatives put forward here. Bill, what's the role 0:08:06.600 --> 0:08:11.480 of China in kind of the global discussion these days 0:08:11.840 --> 0:08:15.440 as relates to the G twenty and other forms. I 0:08:15.440 --> 0:08:20.840 am very important question, Paul, because the only economy UH 0:08:21.080 --> 0:08:25.080 member in the sense of membership in the Group of 0:08:25.080 --> 0:08:28.239 twenty who has an economy that's going to grow as China. 0:08:29.200 --> 0:08:31.840 All of the others, including the United States and Europe, 0:08:31.880 --> 0:08:35.560 will be a negative GDP for this year and China 0:08:35.640 --> 0:08:38.600 will show a growth rate of two and as the 0:08:38.600 --> 0:08:41.959 world's second largest economy and the only G twenty country 0:08:42.000 --> 0:08:46.480 that's growing um UH. It is very very important and 0:08:46.559 --> 0:08:48.720 what they do there is very very important. And one 0:08:48.760 --> 0:08:52.120 of the issues is that China is not a member 0:08:52.120 --> 0:08:56.120 of the Paris Club where you restructure official debt um. 0:08:56.200 --> 0:08:59.520 They would only agree to be an observer UH there. 0:08:59.720 --> 0:09:03.040 And there's a lot of questions about the transparency of 0:09:03.120 --> 0:09:06.520 their loans to the emerging markets which have been so 0:09:06.640 --> 0:09:09.800 hard hit by covid UH. The estimate of the Keel 0:09:09.840 --> 0:09:14.520 Institute is UH China has something over five hundred billion 0:09:14.600 --> 0:09:17.960 five hundred thirty billion aboutstanding loans the places like Africa, 0:09:18.040 --> 0:09:22.959 Southeast Asia, parts of Latin America, and they haven't been 0:09:23.000 --> 0:09:28.320 willing to enter the longer term discussions on debt relief. 0:09:28.760 --> 0:09:32.839 They did go along with the debt relief program of 0:09:32.960 --> 0:09:35.880 the that was put forward at the annual meetings the 0:09:35.960 --> 0:09:40.720 I m F World Bank, which were extended for six 0:09:40.800 --> 0:09:44.800 more months after the original year, but people like David 0:09:44.880 --> 0:09:50.120 Malpas and uh the I m F. David Malpas being 0:09:50.160 --> 0:09:52.840 the head of the World Bank, wanted to extend it 0:09:52.920 --> 0:09:57.920 for a full year. So China is doing less than 0:09:57.960 --> 0:10:00.960 in order to be doing to help these emerging economies 0:10:01.920 --> 0:10:06.800 really get back to normalization here by not willing to 0:10:06.840 --> 0:10:10.640 come forward on disclosure as they should as the other 0:10:10.679 --> 0:10:14.720 countries do, and be willing to restructure over longer periods 0:10:14.760 --> 0:10:17.320 of time that that that they've given out in the 0:10:17.360 --> 0:10:22.959 One Belt, One Road. So that's all very well and good, 0:10:23.040 --> 0:10:25.280 but there's a lot of uncertainty out there right now, 0:10:25.480 --> 0:10:28.120 and you know, can trying to afford to be so 0:10:28.240 --> 0:10:30.280 generous at a time when trade is of the air 0:10:30.360 --> 0:10:33.839 trade of the United States, trade with Europe, trade with Britain, um. 0:10:34.480 --> 0:10:36.360 You know, it's it's not quite clear that China's through 0:10:36.360 --> 0:10:41.160 the woods either. Yes, regarding COVID, well, they have controlled 0:10:41.200 --> 0:10:47.920 it because obviously the system of China is basically a dictatorship, 0:10:48.480 --> 0:10:51.320 and so they've been able to control the outbreak since 0:10:51.360 --> 0:10:55.120 the original one in Wuhan at the end of last year. 0:10:55.160 --> 0:10:58.800 The beginning of this year, and so their economy has 0:10:58.800 --> 0:11:02.760 been able to come back much quicker and stronger than 0:11:02.800 --> 0:11:07.319 any of the other economies. UH. The estimate of the 0:11:07.360 --> 0:11:10.640 I m F is that this year as a whole, 0:11:11.520 --> 0:11:15.720 two thousand twenty, the world economy is going to actually 0:11:15.800 --> 0:11:18.959 be a negative territory four point four percent, which didn't 0:11:18.960 --> 0:11:22.599 even happen at the worst moment of the Great Recession. 0:11:23.160 --> 0:11:25.120 So that gives you a picture of the effect of 0:11:25.240 --> 0:11:29.480 COVID has had on on the world economy. And David 0:11:29.559 --> 0:11:32.800 Malpas estimates at the head of the World Bank that 0:11:33.600 --> 0:11:36.040 during the course of this year will have seen a 0:11:36.160 --> 0:11:40.680 hundred million people pass into extreme prop poverty from the 0:11:40.720 --> 0:11:46.760 effects of the corovid UH COVID virus. So, Bill, what 0:11:46.800 --> 0:11:51.560 do you think a Biden administration means for UH the 0:11:51.640 --> 0:11:54.040 US in terms of its global role? Here you came 0:11:54.080 --> 0:11:58.800 from a time when, you know, the post UH you know, 0:11:58.920 --> 0:12:04.280 World War two, Cold War era, where the US really 0:12:04.440 --> 0:12:08.839 lead an international community. Do you think we can get 0:12:08.880 --> 0:12:11.720 back to that? Do you think that's what President like 0:12:11.800 --> 0:12:15.640 Biden wants. I think that's definitely wants to do. He 0:12:15.679 --> 0:12:19.840 already said that he will rejoin the Paris Agreement on 0:12:20.640 --> 0:12:24.640 Climate change we're the only major country that hasn't signed 0:12:24.640 --> 0:12:28.000 off on it. We did originally under Obama and then 0:12:28.480 --> 0:12:33.400 it was withdrawn by Trump. Also, I think he will 0:12:34.000 --> 0:12:38.320 try and arrange to get our problems settled with the 0:12:38.320 --> 0:12:42.280 World Trade Organization, which is very, very important because we've 0:12:42.320 --> 0:12:45.559 been fighting there. So I think in general you will 0:12:45.600 --> 0:12:51.600 see a much more consideratory attitude visa VI. I think 0:12:51.720 --> 0:12:55.040 our allies in the in the sense of trying to 0:12:55.160 --> 0:12:59.640 be more of a positive element in some of these 0:13:00.040 --> 0:13:03.800 discussions that are being held and trying to extract us 0:13:03.880 --> 0:13:07.800 from this terrible pandemic and it's terrible impact on the 0:13:07.800 --> 0:13:12.440 world economy. Bill, Where would you be looking right now 0:13:12.640 --> 0:13:17.040 for an example of a healthy economy. Well, I I 0:13:17.240 --> 0:13:20.880 already mentioned that the economy that's going to grow the 0:13:20.960 --> 0:13:24.440 only one in the G twenties China. But I mean 0:13:24.440 --> 0:13:27.160 you wouldn't call it a healthy economy either. Well, it's 0:13:27.280 --> 0:13:32.080 healthy in the sense of UH having growth, and of 0:13:32.120 --> 0:13:35.960 course the consumer hasn't come back as they're looking for, 0:13:36.080 --> 0:13:40.600 but their exports have started to trend up, and so 0:13:40.679 --> 0:13:44.200 when you look around, they're about the only example, particularly 0:13:44.240 --> 0:13:47.439 of large countries that you can point out to. And 0:13:47.640 --> 0:13:50.520 next year is going to be a difficult year also 0:13:50.600 --> 0:13:55.360 because so much will depend on the vaccine being made 0:13:55.840 --> 0:14:02.880 available on large quantities around the world. Old also, hopefully 0:14:02.960 --> 0:14:06.640 there'll be some progress on a treatment right Mark is 0:14:06.679 --> 0:14:11.760 working on something supposedly similar to uh to Tama flu 0:14:12.040 --> 0:14:15.200 for the flu. But we're we've still got a long 0:14:15.200 --> 0:14:17.599 ways to go here. Hey, Bill, thanks so much for 0:14:17.679 --> 0:14:20.840 joining us. As always, we always appreciate your perspective. Bill Rhodes, 0:14:20.920 --> 0:14:23.720 President and CEO of William R. Rhodes Global Advisors, also 0:14:23.760 --> 0:14:29.280 a former chairman at City Bank. That was Rude Dauber, 0:14:29.360 --> 0:14:32.880 Executive vice president and president of Biopharma suitables business unit 0:14:32.920 --> 0:14:35.960 at Astra Zeneca speaking with Guy Johnson and Alex Steele 0:14:36.040 --> 0:14:40.680 about their vaccine Vanni. It's it's the third major vaccine 0:14:40.720 --> 0:14:44.000 to come to the market, lower efficacy rates, but still 0:14:44.200 --> 0:14:48.240 um a promising drug at this point, right exactly. So 0:14:48.320 --> 0:14:51.440 an early analysis showing the vaccine stopped an average of 0:14:51.560 --> 0:14:56.480 seventy participants from falling ill. That rose to one of 0:14:56.520 --> 0:14:58.360 two regiments. So I think it would be good if 0:14:58.360 --> 0:15:00.520 you get some analysis from someone he knows a lot 0:15:00.560 --> 0:15:02.480 about these things well, and we can do that with 0:15:02.520 --> 0:15:05.920 our good friend Sam Fazzelli. He's a senior pharmaceutical analysts 0:15:05.920 --> 0:15:08.320 for Bloomberg Intelligence. His day job is also the head 0:15:08.320 --> 0:15:13.360 of the research business for Bloomberg Intelligence all across Europe. Sam, 0:15:13.440 --> 0:15:16.120 you know, we this is the third major company to 0:15:16.240 --> 0:15:20.160 bring UM a vaccine to market. Give us your thoughts 0:15:20.160 --> 0:15:26.280 on this astro Zeneca Oxford vaccine yep, Guy high poem Bonny. 0:15:26.480 --> 0:15:31.840 So you know, I've listened to what what Rod just said, 0:15:32.280 --> 0:15:35.240 just said, so you know, and I do think that 0:15:35.280 --> 0:15:37.640 it's very harsh to call us seven you precent effective 0:15:37.680 --> 0:15:42.480 vaccine useless because it's it's not true UM even at 0:15:42.520 --> 0:15:44.320 that level if that turned out to be the level 0:15:44.320 --> 0:15:47.520 of efficacy, and we don't know, they don't know. That 0:15:47.600 --> 0:15:50.600 division between the kind of doses is a little bit 0:15:50.800 --> 0:15:54.160 um kind of academic at the minute, until we know 0:15:54.680 --> 0:15:57.920 the background to it and that that's sufficient to help 0:15:58.560 --> 0:16:02.080 many many countries with a vaccine that is easy to 0:16:02.120 --> 0:16:06.560 ship and cost very little relatively speaking. So it is 0:16:06.640 --> 0:16:10.000 it is a useful vaccine to have. It's just not 0:16:10.600 --> 0:16:13.000 it didn't show the same sort of efficacy which were 0:16:13.000 --> 0:16:17.880 worried about relative to UM that our fighter and BioNTech 0:16:18.000 --> 0:16:21.840 and MODERNA. So just to finish that line. The question 0:16:21.880 --> 0:16:24.560 now is does this mean that the vaccine's durability is 0:16:24.600 --> 0:16:27.840 also lower. That's something we have to wait and find out, 0:16:28.000 --> 0:16:30.120 right and we don't really know about the durability of 0:16:30.160 --> 0:16:33.680 any of the vaccines right now. Some explain to us, though, 0:16:33.760 --> 0:16:37.320 what exactly all of these numbers means. So the vaccine 0:16:37.360 --> 0:16:41.320 stopped an average of participants falling ill, which rose to 0:16:42.600 --> 0:16:44.920 for one of two regiments. So if he used half 0:16:44.960 --> 0:16:47.200 of those followed by a full one, that gave you 0:16:47.240 --> 0:16:50.600 a nine chance. But then later on we learned that 0:16:50.640 --> 0:16:54.600 the two full doses showed an efficacy of sixty What 0:16:54.680 --> 0:16:56.880 does all this mean that it depends on how you 0:16:56.960 --> 0:17:03.120 receive the dosage, or it could us be um just 0:17:03.360 --> 0:17:06.760 random numbers. The reality is that when you look at 0:17:06.800 --> 0:17:09.760 the other group that had the ninety percent efficacy, it's 0:17:09.800 --> 0:17:12.720 that the sort of numbers only if you remember with 0:17:12.920 --> 0:17:16.040 Finds Interim at thirty two cases and all that we 0:17:16.040 --> 0:17:19.359 were very worried about getting a forced read, and here 0:17:19.400 --> 0:17:21.679 we're at that sort of number in that group of people. 0:17:22.160 --> 0:17:25.199 We just need the company to do more analysis to 0:17:25.280 --> 0:17:28.040 give us more data. Why they chose to put this 0:17:28.119 --> 0:17:30.600 out today rather than I think he said that in 0:17:30.600 --> 0:17:32.840 a few days time they'll have more detail. Why didn't 0:17:32.840 --> 0:17:35.560 they just wait until inn It's just a little bit 0:17:35.560 --> 0:17:38.800 beyond me, So Sam, it seems to me and I 0:17:38.800 --> 0:17:42.760 guess this is not surprising. But it's competitive here between 0:17:42.800 --> 0:17:45.439 these companies too. It seems like they're all trying to 0:17:45.520 --> 0:17:50.000 one up each other and maybe talking up their particular 0:17:50.720 --> 0:17:53.679 vaccine at the expense of others. So at the end 0:17:53.680 --> 0:17:56.320 of the day, I guess what I'm learning is every 0:17:56.359 --> 0:18:00.159 Monday morning, it seems it's not merger Monday, it's vaccine 0:18:00.000 --> 0:18:04.400 in Monday, and those companies are really trying to I guess, 0:18:04.480 --> 0:18:07.000 best position themselves. So this still is a commercial. It's 0:18:07.040 --> 0:18:10.200 a business, isn't it it is. That's a good one, Paul. 0:18:10.240 --> 0:18:12.280 I just hope it's not next Monday, because I'm hoping 0:18:12.320 --> 0:18:15.679 to take a half the day off. The issue is, 0:18:16.560 --> 0:18:19.320 funnily enough, for after it's the least important of all 0:18:19.960 --> 0:18:24.119 they're not. They're selling this at cost. Fither I get BioNTech, 0:18:24.200 --> 0:18:26.720 I get Moderna I get, but they're selling this at cost. 0:18:26.800 --> 0:18:30.040 So what is the point of this if we is 0:18:30.040 --> 0:18:32.880 there some kind of political pressure on them? Because the 0:18:33.000 --> 0:18:37.680 UK and Europe are very dependent on this vaccine and 0:18:37.920 --> 0:18:40.560 they don't have enough doses of the fires of BioNTech 0:18:40.680 --> 0:18:44.520 and modern A vaccine contract for next year. The US 0:18:44.560 --> 0:18:46.960 is different. The US has enough of those two vaccines 0:18:47.000 --> 0:18:50.439 to cover all its population. So now here we are 0:18:50.720 --> 0:18:54.040 perhaps they're being pushed to to come up with a 0:18:54.040 --> 0:18:56.960 positive answer too, because we need our people to feel 0:18:57.000 --> 0:18:59.359 good as they go to Christmas. That kind of thing. Well, 0:18:59.400 --> 0:19:01.679 there's not can be app at refrigerator temperatures, which is 0:19:01.720 --> 0:19:04.520 great news. But also Astra expects to have more than 0:19:04.600 --> 0:19:06.960 three hundred million dollars ready to ship globally by the 0:19:07.040 --> 0:19:09.960 end of the first quarter of next year, with about 0:19:10.040 --> 0:19:14.000 one two hundred million dollars being produced monthly. How does 0:19:14.040 --> 0:19:16.640 that compare with what can be produced by the other 0:19:16.800 --> 0:19:21.560 vaccine companies. Yeah, so I think finds that I've talked 0:19:21.560 --> 0:19:25.360 about one point um one point three billion dosars next year, 0:19:25.440 --> 0:19:28.320 or just over a billion dozars next year. Moderna are 0:19:28.359 --> 0:19:32.840 not far off into the into the high hundreds of millions. Frankly, 0:19:33.480 --> 0:19:35.679 we were all we know, we we were not have 0:19:35.880 --> 0:19:39.399 enough vaccine doses next year to inarculate everybody around the 0:19:39.440 --> 0:19:43.359 world unless every vaccine worked. So it may end up 0:19:43.400 --> 0:19:46.639 being that you just take your astra vaccine because you 0:19:46.680 --> 0:19:49.280 pay me a little for it. You get your population 0:19:49.359 --> 0:19:52.360 as much as you can vaccinated, assuming they come through 0:19:52.400 --> 0:19:56.080 the door knowing that the vaccine is potentially less effective 0:19:56.080 --> 0:19:58.600 than some other vaccine at some point in the future, 0:19:58.960 --> 0:20:00.560 and then go back to them as Okay, now we're 0:20:00.560 --> 0:20:02.199 going to give you the next one to give you 0:20:02.240 --> 0:20:06.560 a real hardcore boost. But that needs to be studied. So, Sam, 0:20:06.600 --> 0:20:08.880 I think you know, at the beginning of this, when 0:20:09.359 --> 0:20:11.439 we started speaking to you and the other folks in 0:20:11.640 --> 0:20:14.000 the business, we were told to expect, Hey, if you 0:20:14.040 --> 0:20:20.000 get efficacy efficacy rates of sixty, that's a really good number. 0:20:20.359 --> 0:20:24.040 And then we got you know, those two Fightser and 0:20:24.280 --> 0:20:28.439 the the other one Mode Owner with did we just 0:20:28.480 --> 0:20:31.840 get spoiled? There? Is this still a good number? It's 0:20:31.920 --> 0:20:34.520 exactly the phrase I used in something else I'm writing 0:20:34.520 --> 0:20:37.520 for spoiled. We are we were spoiled. We would nobody 0:20:37.560 --> 0:20:39.600 expected those, which is why we got the jubilation that 0:20:39.640 --> 0:20:42.439 we did. But the fact is that they're there, and 0:20:42.480 --> 0:20:45.600 we've kind of got a corroboration from two independent companies 0:20:45.680 --> 0:20:48.840 using a similar technology that gives you that number. So 0:20:49.080 --> 0:20:52.280 you can get that for this virus. The point is 0:20:52.760 --> 0:20:55.800 Aster didn't manage it so far. We just have to 0:20:55.840 --> 0:21:00.240 get more detailed. I'm not ready to completely be them 0:21:00.320 --> 0:21:04.399 up for certainly they didn't deserve to be up for 0:21:04.400 --> 0:21:06.840 severy percent. That's a pretty good achievement. As it is. 0:21:07.680 --> 0:21:10.399 In the world of vaccines you mentioned, you know, taking 0:21:10.520 --> 0:21:13.560 one and then taking another and seeing how that would work. 0:21:14.200 --> 0:21:16.920 What happens when someone gets two different kinds of vaccines 0:21:17.000 --> 0:21:20.119 for something. Is it automatically true that they will be 0:21:20.160 --> 0:21:25.760 more vaccinated? Um? Not necessarily, and you do have to 0:21:25.800 --> 0:21:29.240 study it. So for instance, there are two shingles vaccines 0:21:29.240 --> 0:21:33.000 out there, one that Merk Pharmaceuticals had for years excuse me, 0:21:33.040 --> 0:21:34.879 and then TLAX of Smith client comes with a much 0:21:34.920 --> 0:21:39.440 more effective one later. Currently you're advised to wait five 0:21:39.560 --> 0:21:42.240 years once you've had one the mark one, before you 0:21:42.280 --> 0:21:44.760 take the glacks of one. But until somebody doesn't study 0:21:44.760 --> 0:21:46.600 and say, actually, look you're fine, or we're doing it 0:21:46.840 --> 0:21:50.119 giving you a booster, you can't really be sure. So 0:21:50.400 --> 0:21:51.920 you have to you have to take that with a 0:21:51.920 --> 0:21:55.359 pinch of salt. Same give us the the economics with 0:21:55.400 --> 0:21:59.119 these vaccines here you mentioned astra is going to do it, 0:21:59.160 --> 0:22:01.560 I guess roughly at cost. They're not looking to make 0:22:01.560 --> 0:22:04.800 a profit. How does how are those decisions made? Is 0:22:04.840 --> 0:22:07.080 it a political thing, a regulatory thing? Is it just 0:22:07.119 --> 0:22:10.359 a business decision? No? No, no. After I've never had 0:22:10.400 --> 0:22:14.119 a vaccine's business, and they went into this, could I 0:22:14.160 --> 0:22:17.399 say for the for the love of humanity and the 0:22:17.440 --> 0:22:19.119 fact that I think we all need to get our 0:22:19.160 --> 0:22:23.080 businesses back on track and get the world back to normal. Um. 0:22:23.400 --> 0:22:25.879 They did, they they you know, they went out right 0:22:25.920 --> 0:22:27.760 at the beginning, just like Johnson and Johnson did. And 0:22:27.800 --> 0:22:30.760 Johnson and Johnson does have a vaccine's business, not necessarily 0:22:30.760 --> 0:22:33.280 the biggest in the world, but it does have researching 0:22:33.359 --> 0:22:36.680 vaccine at least. Um. So you know, they both said 0:22:36.680 --> 0:22:38.679 the same thing. We're not going to make money on 0:22:38.840 --> 0:22:42.560 the pandemic during the pandemic. So if there's a use 0:22:42.640 --> 0:22:45.480 potential for the vaccine after the pandemic, like an annual 0:22:45.520 --> 0:22:48.760 boost their requirement, then we reserve the right. So that's 0:22:48.800 --> 0:22:52.000 not their phrases I'm paraphrasing, we reserve the right to 0:22:53.160 --> 0:22:56.560 make a profit. Fitherer and Mother never did that. They 0:22:56.600 --> 0:22:58.320 just went out and said, Okay, we're going to make 0:22:58.359 --> 0:23:01.720 the money out of this, so and ASTRA did take 0:23:01.800 --> 0:23:05.240 money from the government's various governments, quite a bit of money. Actually, 0:23:07.280 --> 0:23:13.480 where will these companies compete internationally? So will some of 0:23:13.520 --> 0:23:17.000 them be more likely to distribute to you underdeveloped countries 0:23:17.040 --> 0:23:20.920 and poorer countries and some less? So, you know, I 0:23:21.320 --> 0:23:24.879 I'd really hesitate to say to answer that question, because 0:23:25.000 --> 0:23:27.399 if you assume at the end of the day that 0:23:27.440 --> 0:23:30.840 the astro vaccine is not asificate effective as the others, 0:23:31.200 --> 0:23:32.879 and you say, okay, well let's have that in the 0:23:32.960 --> 0:23:36.280 developing world, that really is not a message that I 0:23:36.280 --> 0:23:38.720 would like to be talking to anybody about at the 0:23:38.800 --> 0:23:41.800