1 00:00:01,400 --> 00:00:04,120 Speaker 1: Welcome to the Bloomberg Markets Podcast. I'm Paul Sweeney, along 2 00:00:04,120 --> 00:00:06,200 Speaker 1: with my co host of Bonnie Quinn. Every business day 3 00:00:06,240 --> 00:00:09,280 Speaker 1: we bring you interviews from CEOs, A, market pros and 4 00:00:09,400 --> 00:00:12,799 Speaker 1: Bloomberg experts, along with essential market moving news. Kind of 5 00:00:12,800 --> 00:00:16,320 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Markets Podcast on Apple Podcasts or wherever you listen 6 00:00:16,360 --> 00:00:20,479 Speaker 1: to podcasts, and on Bloomberg dot com. Well, it is 7 00:00:20,480 --> 00:00:22,920 Speaker 1: time to have a look at precious metals, and by 8 00:00:22,920 --> 00:00:25,279 Speaker 1: that we're not really talking bitcoin all. Little bitcoin itself 9 00:00:25,360 --> 00:00:27,400 Speaker 1: is getting more precious by the day. Let's bring in 10 00:00:27,440 --> 00:00:32,080 Speaker 1: Everett Moment precious metal specialists with Gainesville Coins. Let's begin, though, 11 00:00:32,080 --> 00:00:35,040 Speaker 1: with a traditional special metal, and that would be gold. Everett, 12 00:00:35,040 --> 00:00:38,040 Speaker 1: we saw it rise plenty, even though you know it 13 00:00:38,159 --> 00:00:40,640 Speaker 1: wasn't quite obvious what it was rising on. What are 14 00:00:40,640 --> 00:00:42,920 Speaker 1: the risks out there that people are are using golds 15 00:00:42,920 --> 00:00:46,800 Speaker 1: to hedge for. Well, thanks for having me on UM. 16 00:00:46,840 --> 00:00:49,760 Speaker 1: As we've seen, volatility has been essential part of the 17 00:00:49,800 --> 00:00:52,800 Speaker 1: gold trade. Recently, I think the return of risk on 18 00:00:52,920 --> 00:00:56,080 Speaker 1: sentiment has robbed gold of some of its appeal, and 19 00:00:56,120 --> 00:00:59,040 Speaker 1: in the short run we should expect UM some more 20 00:00:59,120 --> 00:01:01,720 Speaker 1: volatility with in or trading volumes. This week with the 21 00:01:01,760 --> 00:01:05,880 Speaker 1: Thanksgiving holiday. But once the dust settles on the vaccine 22 00:01:05,880 --> 00:01:10,440 Speaker 1: news and this protracted election transition, I believe that the 23 00:01:10,480 --> 00:01:14,479 Speaker 1: attention of the gold market will return back to the fundamentals, 24 00:01:14,520 --> 00:01:18,240 Speaker 1: and that mainly means the FED, UM and other central banks. 25 00:01:18,240 --> 00:01:21,479 Speaker 1: In fact, we've seen that the ECB has come out 26 00:01:21,680 --> 00:01:25,880 Speaker 1: and reiterated its commitment to supporting markets. UM. Beijing just 27 00:01:26,000 --> 00:01:29,640 Speaker 1: recently sold his first negative yielding bonds, and this is 28 00:01:29,680 --> 00:01:32,640 Speaker 1: about the most doublish that the FED Federal Reserve has 29 00:01:32,680 --> 00:01:35,959 Speaker 1: been in a generation. All of that leads me to 30 00:01:35,959 --> 00:01:39,479 Speaker 1: believe that currencies are going to take a hit going forward. UM. 31 00:01:39,480 --> 00:01:42,440 Speaker 1: It seems like a pretty reasonable expectation that the dollar 32 00:01:42,560 --> 00:01:45,360 Speaker 1: will slump a bit heading into next year and beyond, 33 00:01:45,480 --> 00:01:49,760 Speaker 1: and that's rather positive for commodities as a whole. Another 34 00:01:49,840 --> 00:01:53,600 Speaker 1: development that we all know has been a rather strange 35 00:01:53,680 --> 00:01:56,920 Speaker 1: year for markets, there's no denying that, and one aspect 36 00:01:57,000 --> 00:01:59,240 Speaker 1: of that is that the gold market has really shrugged 37 00:01:59,240 --> 00:02:03,200 Speaker 1: off any sasonality. UM, any of the normal seasonal flows. 38 00:02:03,600 --> 00:02:06,160 Speaker 1: I've really been ignored UM. And as I said, I 39 00:02:06,240 --> 00:02:08,400 Speaker 1: think as the news calms down a bit in the 40 00:02:08,480 --> 00:02:13,480 Speaker 1: coming weeks, that we will actually see seasonality reassert itself. 41 00:02:13,639 --> 00:02:18,080 Speaker 1: So that means the traditional wedding season in India and 42 00:02:18,120 --> 00:02:20,200 Speaker 1: the fact that in a few weeks we have the 43 00:02:20,320 --> 00:02:23,959 Speaker 1: Chinese lunar New Year coming up. All of that signals 44 00:02:24,000 --> 00:02:26,480 Speaker 1: that we're going to see a resurgence in physical demand 45 00:02:26,520 --> 00:02:30,320 Speaker 1: for gold coming from the East. So it's interesting. Uh Ever, 46 00:02:30,520 --> 00:02:33,919 Speaker 1: just looking at gold here, spot called up about year today, 47 00:02:33,919 --> 00:02:37,120 Speaker 1: but it feels kind of range bound here. You know, 48 00:02:37,160 --> 00:02:40,000 Speaker 1: we is there a call here where gold gets to 49 00:02:40,240 --> 00:02:44,840 Speaker 1: back up to two thousand dollars announced? Absolutely, I think 50 00:02:44,880 --> 00:02:47,400 Speaker 1: that it's the gold bowls will have to be patient 51 00:02:47,560 --> 00:02:49,920 Speaker 1: for that. Um. There is a lot of noise and 52 00:02:49,960 --> 00:02:53,079 Speaker 1: a lot of stuff obviously going on over these next 53 00:02:53,120 --> 00:02:55,760 Speaker 1: few weeks. But um, you know, when you look at 54 00:02:55,800 --> 00:02:59,120 Speaker 1: some of the sales numbers from like the United States Mint, 55 00:02:59,440 --> 00:03:02,560 Speaker 1: there are prong one million hounces of total gold sales 56 00:03:03,040 --> 00:03:06,160 Speaker 1: for the calendar year. That's already about five times higher 57 00:03:06,480 --> 00:03:09,200 Speaker 1: than we saw for all of two thousand nineteen. So 58 00:03:09,280 --> 00:03:12,280 Speaker 1: from a cyclical perspective, I believe we're in the early 59 00:03:12,320 --> 00:03:17,320 Speaker 1: innings of another bull market for commodities generally. And uh, 60 00:03:17,360 --> 00:03:19,760 Speaker 1: if gold, you know, has maybe lost some of its 61 00:03:19,960 --> 00:03:23,280 Speaker 1: safe Hagan appeal, I would point to its role as 62 00:03:23,320 --> 00:03:26,640 Speaker 1: a bet against the dollar, or really a hedge against 63 00:03:26,639 --> 00:03:30,600 Speaker 1: that potential paradigm shift in the dollars status. We've seen 64 00:03:31,040 --> 00:03:34,800 Speaker 1: this continued trend where economic power and trade supremacy is 65 00:03:35,080 --> 00:03:38,280 Speaker 1: tilting more towards China in the East than it really 66 00:03:38,320 --> 00:03:41,040 Speaker 1: ever has. And what you find is that in that 67 00:03:41,200 --> 00:03:44,000 Speaker 1: region of the world, those countries are rather united in 68 00:03:44,480 --> 00:03:47,920 Speaker 1: finding a more neutral reserve asset as a central part 69 00:03:47,920 --> 00:03:51,320 Speaker 1: of monetary policy. That could be really anything other than 70 00:03:51,360 --> 00:03:54,840 Speaker 1: the hegemonic US dollar, but in this case it's typically gold, 71 00:03:55,240 --> 00:03:58,400 Speaker 1: and that does have profound implications for the next twenty 72 00:03:58,480 --> 00:04:01,960 Speaker 1: to five years of economic history. The last time we 73 00:04:01,960 --> 00:04:05,680 Speaker 1: saw a meaningful realignment of what you might call global 74 00:04:05,760 --> 00:04:08,800 Speaker 1: dollar policy was more than thirty five years ago with 75 00:04:08,840 --> 00:04:11,600 Speaker 1: the Planet Accord, and I'm not alone in thinking that 76 00:04:11,760 --> 00:04:15,600 Speaker 1: some similar adjustment of that arrangement, or a reset, if 77 00:04:15,600 --> 00:04:18,640 Speaker 1: you will, is going to be necessary in the coming decades. 78 00:04:19,200 --> 00:04:22,000 Speaker 1: Based upon the current macro trends that we're seeing, it's 79 00:04:22,000 --> 00:04:25,280 Speaker 1: a fairly reasonable assumption that whatever that realignment looks like 80 00:04:25,400 --> 00:04:27,919 Speaker 1: with respect to the dollar um it's likely to be 81 00:04:28,040 --> 00:04:31,479 Speaker 1: rather positive for gold. So to answer your question, you know, 82 00:04:31,560 --> 00:04:36,400 Speaker 1: gold really is uh, behaving as a hedge against any 83 00:04:36,440 --> 00:04:41,480 Speaker 1: sort of currency weakness, the dollar included. So who are 84 00:04:41,520 --> 00:04:45,800 Speaker 1: these days considers bitcoin a Persson metal. Well, as you 85 00:04:45,839 --> 00:04:48,040 Speaker 1: said at the top, it's it's getting more precious by 86 00:04:48,040 --> 00:04:51,359 Speaker 1: the day, isn't it. Um. It's not entirely surprising to 87 00:04:51,400 --> 00:04:55,240 Speaker 1: me to see bitpoint bitcoin getting a lot more attention 88 00:04:55,240 --> 00:04:56,960 Speaker 1: and a lot more hype now for many of the 89 00:04:57,040 --> 00:05:00,560 Speaker 1: same reasons I just described with gold. Um. There is 90 00:05:00,600 --> 00:05:03,320 Speaker 1: sort of a generational or cyclical shift going on in 91 00:05:03,360 --> 00:05:08,919 Speaker 1: monetary policy, and bitcoin offers some alternative to the standard 92 00:05:09,320 --> 00:05:12,880 Speaker 1: dollar as a global reserve currency. Now, I don't mean 93 00:05:12,960 --> 00:05:15,800 Speaker 1: to suggest that it will popp all the dollar uh 94 00:05:15,839 --> 00:05:17,760 Speaker 1: in the next few months here, or even maybe in 95 00:05:17,800 --> 00:05:20,320 Speaker 1: the next two or three years, but it really does 96 00:05:20,360 --> 00:05:23,880 Speaker 1: deserve the attention it's getting because we're in uncharted territory 97 00:05:24,520 --> 00:05:26,840 Speaker 1: as far as central bank policy goes. So I think 98 00:05:27,160 --> 00:05:29,760 Speaker 1: bitcoin will continue to get attention, it will continue to 99 00:05:29,839 --> 00:05:34,200 Speaker 1: absorb some of these alternate dollar or alternate currency bets 100 00:05:34,279 --> 00:05:39,360 Speaker 1: that investors are making. Hey, every thirty seconds here spots silver. 101 00:05:39,400 --> 00:05:41,120 Speaker 1: I see is up thirty two year to date. That 102 00:05:41,160 --> 00:05:43,240 Speaker 1: kind of gets lost in some of the discussions here 103 00:05:43,240 --> 00:05:47,040 Speaker 1: what's the call on silver here? Right? Silver has maintained 104 00:05:47,080 --> 00:05:50,440 Speaker 1: some positive momentum. Um. It benefits from the fact that 105 00:05:50,520 --> 00:05:53,320 Speaker 1: it is partly an industrial metal. So as we've seen 106 00:05:53,360 --> 00:05:56,080 Speaker 1: with copper rallying, uh, silver has held up a little 107 00:05:56,080 --> 00:05:58,280 Speaker 1: bit better than gold. The main thing I'm launching with 108 00:05:58,320 --> 00:06:02,039 Speaker 1: silver has been some instability in Latin America. UM. I 109 00:06:02,040 --> 00:06:04,640 Speaker 1: think Peru is on its third president in the Spain 110 00:06:04,680 --> 00:06:06,919 Speaker 1: of about a week. UM. So many of the major 111 00:06:06,960 --> 00:06:11,120 Speaker 1: silver producing countries in Latin America seeing some political instabilities 112 00:06:11,120 --> 00:06:14,560 Speaker 1: from unrest that could affect the silver supply and drive 113 00:06:14,640 --> 00:06:18,200 Speaker 1: prices higher going forward. Ever, thank you so much for 114 00:06:18,279 --> 00:06:20,480 Speaker 1: joining us. We always appreciate chatting with you, getting your 115 00:06:20,520 --> 00:06:23,000 Speaker 1: thoughts on all things on the precious metal side of 116 00:06:23,080 --> 00:06:27,599 Speaker 1: the business. Everett Millman, precious Metal Specialists for Gainesville Coins, 117 00:06:27,640 --> 00:06:34,080 Speaker 1: based in Gainesville, Florida. Well, it is time to bring 118 00:06:34,120 --> 00:06:36,760 Speaker 1: in bankers the world. Bill rose to talk to us 119 00:06:36,760 --> 00:06:40,320 Speaker 1: a little bit about what exactly is happening virtually this year, 120 00:06:40,440 --> 00:06:43,160 Speaker 1: and given that we're just off the G twenty, we're 121 00:06:43,400 --> 00:06:46,040 Speaker 1: better at to start than at the G twenty. Bill, 122 00:06:46,120 --> 00:06:48,839 Speaker 1: what were the conversations that sort of struck you that 123 00:06:48,920 --> 00:06:50,920 Speaker 1: we're taking place at the G twenty this year of 124 00:06:51,040 --> 00:06:54,400 Speaker 1: all years. Well versall, Ronnie, it's very good to be 125 00:06:54,480 --> 00:06:58,680 Speaker 1: with you and Paul again. This meeting was unusual in 126 00:06:58,720 --> 00:07:02,000 Speaker 1: the sense that um it was the first one chaired 127 00:07:02,000 --> 00:07:04,560 Speaker 1: by an hour member of the of the Group of twenty. 128 00:07:04,960 --> 00:07:09,039 Speaker 1: Saudi Arabian reod obviously was done virtually and the whole 129 00:07:09,080 --> 00:07:15,720 Speaker 1: idea he was to concentrate on on COVID uh pandemic 130 00:07:16,640 --> 00:07:19,680 Speaker 1: UH and the fallout on the world economy, because the 131 00:07:19,720 --> 00:07:23,440 Speaker 1: first one of these was held by George Bush Jr. 132 00:07:23,480 --> 00:07:30,200 Speaker 1: At the time of the the Great economic Recession to 133 00:07:30,320 --> 00:07:33,720 Speaker 1: try and see what the economic response could be. So 134 00:07:33,800 --> 00:07:39,320 Speaker 1: what was covered here was basically, UH, the economy UH. 135 00:07:39,400 --> 00:07:44,280 Speaker 1: They got into climate change UH. And obviously what could 136 00:07:44,280 --> 00:07:47,680 Speaker 1: be done about speeding of vaccines and making sure they 137 00:07:47,720 --> 00:07:52,880 Speaker 1: were equally distributed around the world. UH, And the whole 138 00:07:52,960 --> 00:07:56,480 Speaker 1: question of world trade given how the economy of the 139 00:07:56,520 --> 00:08:02,000 Speaker 1: world is going. But there were no Pacific new UH, 140 00:08:02,080 --> 00:08:06,440 Speaker 1: let's say initiatives put forward here. Bill, what's the role 141 00:08:06,600 --> 00:08:11,480 Speaker 1: of China in kind of the global discussion these days 142 00:08:11,840 --> 00:08:15,440 Speaker 1: as relates to the G twenty and other forms. I 143 00:08:15,440 --> 00:08:20,840 Speaker 1: am very important question, Paul, because the only economy UH 144 00:08:21,080 --> 00:08:25,080 Speaker 1: member in the sense of membership in the Group of 145 00:08:25,080 --> 00:08:28,239 Speaker 1: twenty who has an economy that's going to grow as China. 146 00:08:29,200 --> 00:08:31,840 Speaker 1: All of the others, including the United States and Europe, 147 00:08:31,880 --> 00:08:35,560 Speaker 1: will be a negative GDP for this year and China 148 00:08:35,640 --> 00:08:38,600 Speaker 1: will show a growth rate of two and as the 149 00:08:38,600 --> 00:08:41,959 Speaker 1: world's second largest economy and the only G twenty country 150 00:08:42,000 --> 00:08:46,480 Speaker 1: that's growing um UH. It is very very important and 151 00:08:46,559 --> 00:08:48,720 Speaker 1: what they do there is very very important. And one 152 00:08:48,760 --> 00:08:52,120 Speaker 1: of the issues is that China is not a member 153 00:08:52,120 --> 00:08:56,120 Speaker 1: of the Paris Club where you restructure official debt um. 154 00:08:56,200 --> 00:08:59,520 Speaker 1: They would only agree to be an observer UH there. 155 00:08:59,720 --> 00:09:03,040 Speaker 1: And there's a lot of questions about the transparency of 156 00:09:03,120 --> 00:09:06,520 Speaker 1: their loans to the emerging markets which have been so 157 00:09:06,640 --> 00:09:09,800 Speaker 1: hard hit by covid UH. The estimate of the Keel 158 00:09:09,840 --> 00:09:14,520 Speaker 1: Institute is UH China has something over five hundred billion 159 00:09:14,600 --> 00:09:17,960 Speaker 1: five hundred thirty billion aboutstanding loans the places like Africa, 160 00:09:18,040 --> 00:09:22,959 Speaker 1: Southeast Asia, parts of Latin America, and they haven't been 161 00:09:23,000 --> 00:09:28,320 Speaker 1: willing to enter the longer term discussions on debt relief. 162 00:09:28,760 --> 00:09:32,839 Speaker 1: They did go along with the debt relief program of 163 00:09:32,960 --> 00:09:35,880 Speaker 1: the that was put forward at the annual meetings the 164 00:09:35,960 --> 00:09:40,720 Speaker 1: I m F World Bank, which were extended for six 165 00:09:40,800 --> 00:09:44,800 Speaker 1: more months after the original year, but people like David 166 00:09:44,880 --> 00:09:50,120 Speaker 1: Malpas and uh the I m F. David Malpas being 167 00:09:50,160 --> 00:09:52,840 Speaker 1: the head of the World Bank, wanted to extend it 168 00:09:52,920 --> 00:09:57,920 Speaker 1: for a full year. So China is doing less than 169 00:09:57,960 --> 00:10:00,960 Speaker 1: in order to be doing to help these emerging economies 170 00:10:01,920 --> 00:10:06,800 Speaker 1: really get back to normalization here by not willing to 171 00:10:06,840 --> 00:10:10,640 Speaker 1: come forward on disclosure as they should as the other 172 00:10:10,679 --> 00:10:14,720 Speaker 1: countries do, and be willing to restructure over longer periods 173 00:10:14,760 --> 00:10:17,320 Speaker 1: of time that that that they've given out in the 174 00:10:17,360 --> 00:10:22,959 Speaker 1: One Belt, One Road. So that's all very well and good, 175 00:10:23,040 --> 00:10:25,280 Speaker 1: but there's a lot of uncertainty out there right now, 176 00:10:25,480 --> 00:10:28,120 Speaker 1: and you know, can trying to afford to be so 177 00:10:28,240 --> 00:10:30,280 Speaker 1: generous at a time when trade is of the air 178 00:10:30,360 --> 00:10:33,839 Speaker 1: trade of the United States, trade with Europe, trade with Britain, um. 179 00:10:34,480 --> 00:10:36,360 Speaker 1: You know, it's it's not quite clear that China's through 180 00:10:36,360 --> 00:10:41,160 Speaker 1: the woods either. Yes, regarding COVID, well, they have controlled 181 00:10:41,200 --> 00:10:47,920 Speaker 1: it because obviously the system of China is basically a dictatorship, 182 00:10:48,480 --> 00:10:51,320 Speaker 1: and so they've been able to control the outbreak since 183 00:10:51,360 --> 00:10:55,120 Speaker 1: the original one in Wuhan at the end of last year. 184 00:10:55,160 --> 00:10:58,800 Speaker 1: The beginning of this year, and so their economy has 185 00:10:58,800 --> 00:11:02,760 Speaker 1: been able to come back much quicker and stronger than 186 00:11:02,800 --> 00:11:07,319 Speaker 1: any of the other economies. UH. The estimate of the 187 00:11:07,360 --> 00:11:10,640 Speaker 1: I m F is that this year as a whole, 188 00:11:11,520 --> 00:11:15,720 Speaker 1: two thousand twenty, the world economy is going to actually 189 00:11:15,800 --> 00:11:18,959 Speaker 1: be a negative territory four point four percent, which didn't 190 00:11:18,960 --> 00:11:22,599 Speaker 1: even happen at the worst moment of the Great Recession. 191 00:11:23,160 --> 00:11:25,120 Speaker 1: So that gives you a picture of the effect of 192 00:11:25,240 --> 00:11:29,480 Speaker 1: COVID has had on on the world economy. And David 193 00:11:29,559 --> 00:11:32,800 Speaker 1: Malpas estimates at the head of the World Bank that 194 00:11:33,600 --> 00:11:36,040 Speaker 1: during the course of this year will have seen a 195 00:11:36,160 --> 00:11:40,680 Speaker 1: hundred million people pass into extreme prop poverty from the 196 00:11:40,720 --> 00:11:46,760 Speaker 1: effects of the corovid UH COVID virus. So, Bill, what 197 00:11:46,800 --> 00:11:51,560 Speaker 1: do you think a Biden administration means for UH the 198 00:11:51,640 --> 00:11:54,040 Speaker 1: US in terms of its global role? Here you came 199 00:11:54,080 --> 00:11:58,800 Speaker 1: from a time when, you know, the post UH you know, 200 00:11:58,920 --> 00:12:04,280 Speaker 1: World War two, Cold War era, where the US really 201 00:12:04,440 --> 00:12:08,839 Speaker 1: lead an international community. Do you think we can get 202 00:12:08,880 --> 00:12:11,720 Speaker 1: back to that? Do you think that's what President like 203 00:12:11,800 --> 00:12:15,640 Speaker 1: Biden wants. I think that's definitely wants to do. He 204 00:12:15,679 --> 00:12:19,840 Speaker 1: already said that he will rejoin the Paris Agreement on 205 00:12:20,640 --> 00:12:24,640 Speaker 1: Climate change we're the only major country that hasn't signed 206 00:12:24,640 --> 00:12:28,000 Speaker 1: off on it. We did originally under Obama and then 207 00:12:28,480 --> 00:12:33,400 Speaker 1: it was withdrawn by Trump. Also, I think he will 208 00:12:34,000 --> 00:12:38,320 Speaker 1: try and arrange to get our problems settled with the 209 00:12:38,320 --> 00:12:42,280 Speaker 1: World Trade Organization, which is very, very important because we've 210 00:12:42,320 --> 00:12:45,559 Speaker 1: been fighting there. So I think in general you will 211 00:12:45,600 --> 00:12:51,600 Speaker 1: see a much more consideratory attitude visa VI. I think 212 00:12:51,720 --> 00:12:55,040 Speaker 1: our allies in the in the sense of trying to 213 00:12:55,160 --> 00:12:59,640 Speaker 1: be more of a positive element in some of these 214 00:13:00,040 --> 00:13:03,800 Speaker 1: discussions that are being held and trying to extract us 215 00:13:03,880 --> 00:13:07,800 Speaker 1: from this terrible pandemic and it's terrible impact on the 216 00:13:07,800 --> 00:13:12,440 Speaker 1: world economy. Bill, Where would you be looking right now 217 00:13:12,640 --> 00:13:17,040 Speaker 1: for an example of a healthy economy. Well, I I 218 00:13:17,240 --> 00:13:20,880 Speaker 1: already mentioned that the economy that's going to grow the 219 00:13:20,960 --> 00:13:24,440 Speaker 1: only one in the G twenties China. But I mean 220 00:13:24,440 --> 00:13:27,160 Speaker 1: you wouldn't call it a healthy economy either. Well, it's 221 00:13:27,280 --> 00:13:32,080 Speaker 1: healthy in the sense of UH having growth, and of 222 00:13:32,120 --> 00:13:35,960 Speaker 1: course the consumer hasn't come back as they're looking for, 223 00:13:36,080 --> 00:13:40,600 Speaker 1: but their exports have started to trend up, and so 224 00:13:40,679 --> 00:13:44,200 Speaker 1: when you look around, they're about the only example, particularly 225 00:13:44,240 --> 00:13:47,439 Speaker 1: of large countries that you can point out to. And 226 00:13:47,640 --> 00:13:50,520 Speaker 1: next year is going to be a difficult year also 227 00:13:50,600 --> 00:13:55,360 Speaker 1: because so much will depend on the vaccine being made 228 00:13:55,840 --> 00:14:02,880 Speaker 1: available on large quantities around the world. Old also, hopefully 229 00:14:02,960 --> 00:14:06,640 Speaker 1: there'll be some progress on a treatment right Mark is 230 00:14:06,679 --> 00:14:11,760 Speaker 1: working on something supposedly similar to uh to Tama flu 231 00:14:12,040 --> 00:14:15,200 Speaker 1: for the flu. But we're we've still got a long 232 00:14:15,200 --> 00:14:17,599 Speaker 1: ways to go here. Hey, Bill, thanks so much for 233 00:14:17,679 --> 00:14:20,840 Speaker 1: joining us. As always, we always appreciate your perspective. Bill Rhodes, 234 00:14:20,920 --> 00:14:23,720 Speaker 1: President and CEO of William R. Rhodes Global Advisors, also 235 00:14:23,760 --> 00:14:29,280 Speaker 1: a former chairman at City Bank. That was Rude Dauber, 236 00:14:29,360 --> 00:14:32,880 Speaker 1: Executive vice president and president of Biopharma suitables business unit 237 00:14:32,920 --> 00:14:35,960 Speaker 1: at Astra Zeneca speaking with Guy Johnson and Alex Steele 238 00:14:36,040 --> 00:14:40,680 Speaker 1: about their vaccine Vanni. It's it's the third major vaccine 239 00:14:40,720 --> 00:14:44,000 Speaker 1: to come to the market, lower efficacy rates, but still 240 00:14:44,200 --> 00:14:48,240 Speaker 1: um a promising drug at this point, right exactly. So 241 00:14:48,320 --> 00:14:51,440 Speaker 1: an early analysis showing the vaccine stopped an average of 242 00:14:51,560 --> 00:14:56,480 Speaker 1: seventy participants from falling ill. That rose to one of 243 00:14:56,520 --> 00:14:58,360 Speaker 1: two regiments. So I think it would be good if 244 00:14:58,360 --> 00:15:00,520 Speaker 1: you get some analysis from someone he knows a lot 245 00:15:00,560 --> 00:15:02,480 Speaker 1: about these things well, and we can do that with 246 00:15:02,520 --> 00:15:05,920 Speaker 1: our good friend Sam Fazzelli. He's a senior pharmaceutical analysts 247 00:15:05,920 --> 00:15:08,320 Speaker 1: for Bloomberg Intelligence. His day job is also the head 248 00:15:08,320 --> 00:15:13,360 Speaker 1: of the research business for Bloomberg Intelligence all across Europe. Sam, 249 00:15:13,440 --> 00:15:16,120 Speaker 1: you know, we this is the third major company to 250 00:15:16,240 --> 00:15:20,160 Speaker 1: bring UM a vaccine to market. Give us your thoughts 251 00:15:20,160 --> 00:15:26,280 Speaker 1: on this astro Zeneca Oxford vaccine yep, Guy high poem Bonny. 252 00:15:26,480 --> 00:15:31,840 Speaker 1: So you know, I've listened to what what Rod just said, 253 00:15:32,280 --> 00:15:35,240 Speaker 1: just said, so you know, and I do think that 254 00:15:35,280 --> 00:15:37,640 Speaker 1: it's very harsh to call us seven you precent effective 255 00:15:37,680 --> 00:15:42,480 Speaker 1: vaccine useless because it's it's not true UM even at 256 00:15:42,520 --> 00:15:44,320 Speaker 1: that level if that turned out to be the level 257 00:15:44,320 --> 00:15:47,520 Speaker 1: of efficacy, and we don't know, they don't know. That 258 00:15:47,600 --> 00:15:50,600 Speaker 1: division between the kind of doses is a little bit 259 00:15:50,800 --> 00:15:54,160 Speaker 1: um kind of academic at the minute, until we know 260 00:15:54,680 --> 00:15:57,920 Speaker 1: the background to it and that that's sufficient to help 261 00:15:58,560 --> 00:16:02,080 Speaker 1: many many countries with a vaccine that is easy to 262 00:16:02,120 --> 00:16:06,560 Speaker 1: ship and cost very little relatively speaking. So it is 263 00:16:06,640 --> 00:16:10,000 Speaker 1: it is a useful vaccine to have. It's just not 264 00:16:10,600 --> 00:16:13,000 Speaker 1: it didn't show the same sort of efficacy which were 265 00:16:13,000 --> 00:16:17,880 Speaker 1: worried about relative to UM that our fighter and BioNTech 266 00:16:18,000 --> 00:16:21,840 Speaker 1: and MODERNA. So just to finish that line. The question 267 00:16:21,880 --> 00:16:24,560 Speaker 1: now is does this mean that the vaccine's durability is 268 00:16:24,600 --> 00:16:27,840 Speaker 1: also lower. That's something we have to wait and find out, 269 00:16:28,000 --> 00:16:30,120 Speaker 1: right and we don't really know about the durability of 270 00:16:30,160 --> 00:16:33,680 Speaker 1: any of the vaccines right now. Some explain to us, though, 271 00:16:33,760 --> 00:16:37,320 Speaker 1: what exactly all of these numbers means. So the vaccine 272 00:16:37,360 --> 00:16:41,320 Speaker 1: stopped an average of participants falling ill, which rose to 273 00:16:42,600 --> 00:16:44,920 Speaker 1: for one of two regiments. So if he used half 274 00:16:44,960 --> 00:16:47,200 Speaker 1: of those followed by a full one, that gave you 275 00:16:47,240 --> 00:16:50,600 Speaker 1: a nine chance. But then later on we learned that 276 00:16:50,640 --> 00:16:54,600 Speaker 1: the two full doses showed an efficacy of sixty What 277 00:16:54,680 --> 00:16:56,880 Speaker 1: does all this mean that it depends on how you 278 00:16:56,960 --> 00:17:03,120 Speaker 1: receive the dosage, or it could us be um just 279 00:17:03,360 --> 00:17:06,760 Speaker 1: random numbers. The reality is that when you look at 280 00:17:06,800 --> 00:17:09,760 Speaker 1: the other group that had the ninety percent efficacy, it's 281 00:17:09,800 --> 00:17:12,720 Speaker 1: that the sort of numbers only if you remember with 282 00:17:12,920 --> 00:17:16,040 Speaker 1: Finds Interim at thirty two cases and all that we 283 00:17:16,040 --> 00:17:19,359 Speaker 1: were very worried about getting a forced read, and here 284 00:17:19,400 --> 00:17:21,679 Speaker 1: we're at that sort of number in that group of people. 285 00:17:22,160 --> 00:17:25,199 Speaker 1: We just need the company to do more analysis to 286 00:17:25,280 --> 00:17:28,040 Speaker 1: give us more data. Why they chose to put this 287 00:17:28,119 --> 00:17:30,600 Speaker 1: out today rather than I think he said that in 288 00:17:30,600 --> 00:17:32,840 Speaker 1: a few days time they'll have more detail. Why didn't 289 00:17:32,840 --> 00:17:35,560 Speaker 1: they just wait until inn It's just a little bit 290 00:17:35,560 --> 00:17:38,800 Speaker 1: beyond me, So Sam, it seems to me and I 291 00:17:38,800 --> 00:17:42,760 Speaker 1: guess this is not surprising. But it's competitive here between 292 00:17:42,800 --> 00:17:45,439 Speaker 1: these companies too. It seems like they're all trying to 293 00:17:45,520 --> 00:17:50,000 Speaker 1: one up each other and maybe talking up their particular 294 00:17:50,720 --> 00:17:53,679 Speaker 1: vaccine at the expense of others. So at the end 295 00:17:53,680 --> 00:17:56,320 Speaker 1: of the day, I guess what I'm learning is every 296 00:17:56,359 --> 00:18:00,159 Speaker 1: Monday morning, it seems it's not merger Monday, it's vaccine 297 00:18:00,000 --> 00:18:04,400 Speaker 1: in Monday, and those companies are really trying to I guess, 298 00:18:04,480 --> 00:18:07,000 Speaker 1: best position themselves. So this still is a commercial. It's 299 00:18:07,040 --> 00:18:10,200 Speaker 1: a business, isn't it it is. That's a good one, Paul. 300 00:18:10,240 --> 00:18:12,280 Speaker 1: I just hope it's not next Monday, because I'm hoping 301 00:18:12,320 --> 00:18:15,679 Speaker 1: to take a half the day off. The issue is, 302 00:18:16,560 --> 00:18:19,320 Speaker 1: funnily enough, for after it's the least important of all 303 00:18:19,960 --> 00:18:24,119 Speaker 1: they're not. They're selling this at cost. Fither I get BioNTech, 304 00:18:24,200 --> 00:18:26,720 Speaker 1: I get Moderna I get, but they're selling this at cost. 305 00:18:26,800 --> 00:18:30,040 Speaker 1: So what is the point of this if we is 306 00:18:30,040 --> 00:18:32,880 Speaker 1: there some kind of political pressure on them? Because the 307 00:18:33,000 --> 00:18:37,680 Speaker 1: UK and Europe are very dependent on this vaccine and 308 00:18:37,920 --> 00:18:40,560 Speaker 1: they don't have enough doses of the fires of BioNTech 309 00:18:40,680 --> 00:18:44,520 Speaker 1: and modern A vaccine contract for next year. The US 310 00:18:44,560 --> 00:18:46,960 Speaker 1: is different. The US has enough of those two vaccines 311 00:18:47,000 --> 00:18:50,439 Speaker 1: to cover all its population. So now here we are 312 00:18:50,720 --> 00:18:54,040 Speaker 1: perhaps they're being pushed to to come up with a 313 00:18:54,040 --> 00:18:56,960 Speaker 1: positive answer too, because we need our people to feel 314 00:18:57,000 --> 00:18:59,359 Speaker 1: good as they go to Christmas. That kind of thing. Well, 315 00:18:59,400 --> 00:19:01,679 Speaker 1: there's not can be app at refrigerator temperatures, which is 316 00:19:01,720 --> 00:19:04,520 Speaker 1: great news. But also Astra expects to have more than 317 00:19:04,600 --> 00:19:06,960 Speaker 1: three hundred million dollars ready to ship globally by the 318 00:19:07,040 --> 00:19:09,960 Speaker 1: end of the first quarter of next year, with about 319 00:19:10,040 --> 00:19:14,000 Speaker 1: one two hundred million dollars being produced monthly. How does 320 00:19:14,040 --> 00:19:16,640 Speaker 1: that compare with what can be produced by the other 321 00:19:16,800 --> 00:19:21,560 Speaker 1: vaccine companies. Yeah, so I think finds that I've talked 322 00:19:21,560 --> 00:19:25,360 Speaker 1: about one point um one point three billion dosars next year, 323 00:19:25,440 --> 00:19:28,320 Speaker 1: or just over a billion dozars next year. Moderna are 324 00:19:28,359 --> 00:19:32,840 Speaker 1: not far off into the into the high hundreds of millions. Frankly, 325 00:19:33,480 --> 00:19:35,679 Speaker 1: we were all we know, we we were not have 326 00:19:35,880 --> 00:19:39,399 Speaker 1: enough vaccine doses next year to inarculate everybody around the 327 00:19:39,440 --> 00:19:43,359 Speaker 1: world unless every vaccine worked. So it may end up 328 00:19:43,400 --> 00:19:46,639 Speaker 1: being that you just take your astra vaccine because you 329 00:19:46,680 --> 00:19:49,280 Speaker 1: pay me a little for it. You get your population 330 00:19:49,359 --> 00:19:52,360 Speaker 1: as much as you can vaccinated, assuming they come through 331 00:19:52,400 --> 00:19:56,080 Speaker 1: the door knowing that the vaccine is potentially less effective 332 00:19:56,080 --> 00:19:58,600 Speaker 1: than some other vaccine at some point in the future, 333 00:19:58,960 --> 00:20:00,560 Speaker 1: and then go back to them as Okay, now we're 334 00:20:00,560 --> 00:20:02,199 Speaker 1: going to give you the next one to give you 335 00:20:02,240 --> 00:20:06,560 Speaker 1: a real hardcore boost. But that needs to be studied. So, Sam, 336 00:20:06,600 --> 00:20:08,880 Speaker 1: I think you know, at the beginning of this, when 337 00:20:09,359 --> 00:20:11,439 Speaker 1: we started speaking to you and the other folks in 338 00:20:11,640 --> 00:20:14,000 Speaker 1: the business, we were told to expect, Hey, if you 339 00:20:14,040 --> 00:20:20,000 Speaker 1: get efficacy efficacy rates of sixty, that's a really good number. 340 00:20:20,359 --> 00:20:24,040 Speaker 1: And then we got you know, those two Fightser and 341 00:20:24,280 --> 00:20:28,439 Speaker 1: the the other one Mode Owner with did we just 342 00:20:28,480 --> 00:20:31,840 Speaker 1: get spoiled? There? Is this still a good number? It's 343 00:20:31,920 --> 00:20:34,520 Speaker 1: exactly the phrase I used in something else I'm writing 344 00:20:34,520 --> 00:20:37,520 Speaker 1: for spoiled. We are we were spoiled. We would nobody 345 00:20:37,560 --> 00:20:39,600 Speaker 1: expected those, which is why we got the jubilation that 346 00:20:39,640 --> 00:20:42,439 Speaker 1: we did. But the fact is that they're there, and 347 00:20:42,480 --> 00:20:45,600 Speaker 1: we've kind of got a corroboration from two independent companies 348 00:20:45,680 --> 00:20:48,840 Speaker 1: using a similar technology that gives you that number. So 349 00:20:49,080 --> 00:20:52,280 Speaker 1: you can get that for this virus. The point is 350 00:20:52,760 --> 00:20:55,800 Speaker 1: Aster didn't manage it so far. We just have to 351 00:20:55,840 --> 00:21:00,240 Speaker 1: get more detailed. I'm not ready to completely be them 352 00:21:00,320 --> 00:21:04,399 Speaker 1: up for certainly they didn't deserve to be up for 353 00:21:04,400 --> 00:21:06,840 Speaker 1: severy percent. That's a pretty good achievement. As it is. 354 00:21:07,680 --> 00:21:10,399 Speaker 1: In the world of vaccines you mentioned, you know, taking 355 00:21:10,520 --> 00:21:13,560 Speaker 1: one and then taking another and seeing how that would work. 356 00:21:14,200 --> 00:21:16,920 Speaker 1: What happens when someone gets two different kinds of vaccines 357 00:21:17,000 --> 00:21:20,119 Speaker 1: for something. Is it automatically true that they will be 358 00:21:20,160 --> 00:21:25,760 Speaker 1: more vaccinated? Um? Not necessarily, and you do have to 359 00:21:25,800 --> 00:21:29,240 Speaker 1: study it. So for instance, there are two shingles vaccines 360 00:21:29,240 --> 00:21:33,000 Speaker 1: out there, one that Merk Pharmaceuticals had for years excuse me, 361 00:21:33,040 --> 00:21:34,879 Speaker 1: and then TLAX of Smith client comes with a much 362 00:21:34,920 --> 00:21:39,440 Speaker 1: more effective one later. Currently you're advised to wait five 363 00:21:39,560 --> 00:21:42,240 Speaker 1: years once you've had one the mark one, before you 364 00:21:42,280 --> 00:21:44,760 Speaker 1: take the glacks of one. But until somebody doesn't study 365 00:21:44,760 --> 00:21:46,600 Speaker 1: and say, actually, look you're fine, or we're doing it 366 00:21:46,840 --> 00:21:50,119 Speaker 1: giving you a booster, you can't really be sure. So 367 00:21:50,400 --> 00:21:51,920 Speaker 1: you have to you have to take that with a 368 00:21:51,920 --> 00:21:55,359 Speaker 1: pinch of salt. Same give us the the economics with 369 00:21:55,400 --> 00:21:59,119 Speaker 1: these vaccines here you mentioned astra is going to do it, 370 00:21:59,160 --> 00:22:01,560 Speaker 1: I guess roughly at cost. They're not looking to make 371 00:22:01,560 --> 00:22:04,800 Speaker 1: a profit. How does how are those decisions made? Is 372 00:22:04,840 --> 00:22:07,080 Speaker 1: it a political thing, a regulatory thing? Is it just 373 00:22:07,119 --> 00:22:10,359 Speaker 1: a business decision? No? No, no. After I've never had 374 00:22:10,400 --> 00:22:14,119 Speaker 1: a vaccine's business, and they went into this, could I 375 00:22:14,160 --> 00:22:17,399 Speaker 1: say for the for the love of humanity and the 376 00:22:17,440 --> 00:22:19,119 Speaker 1: fact that I think we all need to get our 377 00:22:19,160 --> 00:22:23,080 Speaker 1: businesses back on track and get the world back to normal. Um. 378 00:22:23,400 --> 00:22:25,879 Speaker 1: They did, they they you know, they went out right 379 00:22:25,920 --> 00:22:27,760 Speaker 1: at the beginning, just like Johnson and Johnson did. And 380 00:22:27,800 --> 00:22:30,760 Speaker 1: Johnson and Johnson does have a vaccine's business, not necessarily 381 00:22:30,760 --> 00:22:33,280 Speaker 1: the biggest in the world, but it does have researching 382 00:22:33,359 --> 00:22:36,680 Speaker 1: vaccine at least. Um. So you know, they both said 383 00:22:36,680 --> 00:22:38,679 Speaker 1: the same thing. We're not going to make money on 384 00:22:38,840 --> 00:22:42,560 Speaker 1: the pandemic during the pandemic. So if there's a use 385 00:22:42,640 --> 00:22:45,480 Speaker 1: potential for the vaccine after the pandemic, like an annual 386 00:22:45,520 --> 00:22:48,760 Speaker 1: boost their requirement, then we reserve the right. So that's 387 00:22:48,800 --> 00:22:52,000 Speaker 1: not their phrases I'm paraphrasing, we reserve the right to 388 00:22:53,160 --> 00:22:56,560 Speaker 1: make a profit. Fitherer and Mother never did that. They 389 00:22:56,600 --> 00:22:58,320 Speaker 1: just went out and said, Okay, we're going to make 390 00:22:58,359 --> 00:23:01,720 Speaker 1: the money out of this, so and ASTRA did take 391 00:23:01,800 --> 00:23:05,240 Speaker 1: money from the government's various governments, quite a bit of money. Actually, 392 00:23:07,280 --> 00:23:13,480 Speaker 1: where will these companies compete internationally? So will some of 393 00:23:13,520 --> 00:23:17,000 Speaker 1: them be more likely to distribute to you underdeveloped countries 394 00:23:17,040 --> 00:23:20,920 Speaker 1: and poorer countries and some less? So, you know, I 395 00:23:21,320 --> 00:23:24,879 Speaker 1: I'd really hesitate to say to answer that question, because 396 00:23:25,000 --> 00:23:27,399 Speaker 1: if you assume at the end of the day that 397 00:23:27,440 --> 00:23:30,840 Speaker 1: the astro vaccine is not asificate effective as the others, 398 00:23:31,200 --> 00:23:32,879 Speaker 1: and you say, okay, well let's have that in the 399 00:23:32,960 --> 00:23:36,280 Speaker 1: developing world, that really is not a message that I 400 00:23:36,280 --> 00:23:38,720 Speaker 1: would like to be talking to anybody about at the 401 00:23:38,800 --> 00:23:41,800 Speaker 1: end of the day. But perhaps to say, here is 402 00:23:41,840 --> 00:23:43,960 Speaker 1: the vaccine that I can get to you easily, to 403 00:23:44,119 --> 00:23:50,400 Speaker 1: every corner of your country with just the fridge or refrigerator. Sorry, um, 404 00:23:50,520 --> 00:23:53,399 Speaker 1: then that's a different message. So we just have to 405 00:23:53,440 --> 00:23:56,560 Speaker 1: be very careful with the messaging here. I think, unfortunately 406 00:23:56,600 --> 00:23:58,520 Speaker 1: it's going to be a lot of people are going 407 00:23:58,520 --> 00:24:02,080 Speaker 1: to think twice about going to get the astro vaccine, 408 00:24:02,119 --> 00:24:03,840 Speaker 1: and I don't know what this will do to their 409 00:24:03,920 --> 00:24:08,840 Speaker 1: recruitment in their in their US trial. Yeah, so Sam, 410 00:24:09,440 --> 00:24:13,160 Speaker 1: the scientists, um, you know, really are coming through with 411 00:24:13,280 --> 00:24:16,119 Speaker 1: some some great science here coming up with the vaccines. 412 00:24:16,840 --> 00:24:18,840 Speaker 1: What are the companies that we should be looking at 413 00:24:19,520 --> 00:24:24,800 Speaker 1: or thinking about um in terms of producing and distributing 414 00:24:25,160 --> 00:24:27,479 Speaker 1: and you know, storing these things. Are there some companies 415 00:24:27,520 --> 00:24:29,879 Speaker 1: that do this or do the astros Nachas of the 416 00:24:29,880 --> 00:24:31,800 Speaker 1: world in the in the fists of the world do 417 00:24:31,880 --> 00:24:34,960 Speaker 1: that themselves. Yeah, well, so you know, Paul that that's 418 00:24:35,000 --> 00:24:38,239 Speaker 1: not really my area in terms of but we know 419 00:24:38,280 --> 00:24:41,320 Speaker 1: that Corning is making a very special glass that's required 420 00:24:41,359 --> 00:24:44,200 Speaker 1: for these glass files and they would need billions of them, right. 421 00:24:44,760 --> 00:24:50,280 Speaker 1: We know that Catalan and Emergent bios Solutions and lawns 422 00:24:50,280 --> 00:24:54,760 Speaker 1: are are are manufacturing partners for many of these companies. 423 00:24:55,040 --> 00:24:56,600 Speaker 1: So they are all and I think if you look 424 00:24:56,640 --> 00:24:59,200 Speaker 1: at those share price charts you'll see a similar response 425 00:25:00,560 --> 00:25:03,760 Speaker 1: early on when these vaccines started working out. So there 426 00:25:03,800 --> 00:25:09,159 Speaker 1: will be the partners that will be helping manufacture. In 427 00:25:09,240 --> 00:25:12,200 Speaker 1: term the distribution it needs to be, it's going to 428 00:25:12,240 --> 00:25:14,800 Speaker 1: be government work. And you know, you've heard about the 429 00:25:14,800 --> 00:25:17,760 Speaker 1: military getting involved in the US. You've heard about Walgreens 430 00:25:17,760 --> 00:25:20,680 Speaker 1: and pharmacists getting involved in the US. So it's it's 431 00:25:20,720 --> 00:25:26,000 Speaker 1: a pretty broad group of companies and organizations that need 432 00:25:26,040 --> 00:25:29,800 Speaker 1: to get involved. Some the researchers that have been working 433 00:25:29,800 --> 00:25:34,239 Speaker 1: on these vaccines, do you know, and not suggesting that 434 00:25:34,280 --> 00:25:36,960 Speaker 1: you you would, but just on the off off chance 435 00:25:37,000 --> 00:25:38,800 Speaker 1: that you do know what they had been working on 436 00:25:38,880 --> 00:25:40,680 Speaker 1: before and what we might now have to wait a 437 00:25:40,720 --> 00:25:46,240 Speaker 1: longer time for because resources were switched to vaccine, you know, 438 00:25:46,320 --> 00:25:49,880 Speaker 1: covid vaccine production. That's a very good question. I think 439 00:25:49,920 --> 00:25:52,600 Speaker 1: the researchers that many of the people who started working 440 00:25:52,600 --> 00:25:56,240 Speaker 1: on this are folks who are in the immunology of 441 00:25:56,280 --> 00:25:59,480 Speaker 1: microbiology virology background, and I think this is what they do. 442 00:26:00,000 --> 00:26:02,119 Speaker 1: We do have a virus that's running a mark in 443 00:26:02,400 --> 00:26:06,119 Speaker 1: the world, and basically that's their bread and butter. They 444 00:26:06,160 --> 00:26:09,480 Speaker 1: try and understand and solve those things. In terms of research. 445 00:26:10,280 --> 00:26:14,040 Speaker 1: You know, it's less the effects are secondary effects are 446 00:26:14,520 --> 00:26:18,160 Speaker 1: lower diagnoses of diseases because people have not been able 447 00:26:18,160 --> 00:26:21,520 Speaker 1: to consider the doctors um and you know, with these 448 00:26:21,560 --> 00:26:24,439 Speaker 1: antibodies and things that are coming through with the requirements 449 00:26:24,440 --> 00:26:28,840 Speaker 1: for IVY infusions, you've got the issue with um uh 450 00:26:28,880 --> 00:26:32,560 Speaker 1: you know I V centers. Infusion centers. Now that's where 451 00:26:32,720 --> 00:26:37,040 Speaker 1: cancer patients go to get their uh their drugs. You 452 00:26:37,080 --> 00:26:40,199 Speaker 1: don't really want COVID infected patients in there too, So 453 00:26:40,480 --> 00:26:42,080 Speaker 1: those are the side effect are thinking. But from a 454 00:26:42,160 --> 00:26:46,160 Speaker 1: research perspective, I don't think we're seeing anything diverted away 455 00:26:46,200 --> 00:26:51,399 Speaker 1: from anything. Um, it's just it's just additional, Sam, do 456 00:26:51,440 --> 00:26:53,560 Speaker 1: you think I mean, I know, when we again started 457 00:26:53,560 --> 00:26:56,399 Speaker 1: talking to you about vaccines back in the day several 458 00:26:56,680 --> 00:26:59,160 Speaker 1: months ago, you know, we're talking about four or five, six, 459 00:26:59,200 --> 00:27:01,800 Speaker 1: seven years for a vaccine to kind of get through approval, 460 00:27:01,840 --> 00:27:04,679 Speaker 1: and now we're looking at a much much more compressed 461 00:27:04,760 --> 00:27:07,360 Speaker 1: time frame here for the COVID vaccines. Do you think 462 00:27:07,400 --> 00:27:11,439 Speaker 1: this will have a permanent change to how vaccines do 463 00:27:11,600 --> 00:27:14,560 Speaker 1: get approved in the future, showing that it can be 464 00:27:14,600 --> 00:27:18,840 Speaker 1: done on a quicker time frame. Well, so, I think Paul, 465 00:27:18,920 --> 00:27:21,920 Speaker 1: that we certainly are have learned that you don't have 466 00:27:22,080 --> 00:27:26,600 Speaker 1: to have those massive time frames. Everything was done in series. 467 00:27:27,400 --> 00:27:30,240 Speaker 1: It is possible to get things done in parallel, but 468 00:27:30,359 --> 00:27:32,800 Speaker 1: that does have a cost because the FDA and the 469 00:27:32,880 --> 00:27:35,439 Speaker 1: regulators will get involved. That's one of the things back 470 00:27:35,480 --> 00:27:39,000 Speaker 1: to Vonnie's question. They only have so much resources. If 471 00:27:39,000 --> 00:27:41,679 Speaker 1: they're going to have to be doubling up resources on 472 00:27:41,840 --> 00:27:44,560 Speaker 1: speeding something up, that means they're taking it away from 473 00:27:44,600 --> 00:27:47,280 Speaker 1: something else. So and I think with some of the 474 00:27:47,280 --> 00:27:49,280 Speaker 1: companies have since that a little bit with the gost 475 00:27:49,320 --> 00:27:53,119 Speaker 1: to FDA responses. So does this change? We certainly have 476 00:27:53,240 --> 00:27:56,159 Speaker 1: learned that we can do things quicker, and I believe 477 00:27:56,280 --> 00:27:59,240 Speaker 1: that that going forward that we would be learning to 478 00:27:59,320 --> 00:28:03,840 Speaker 1: reduce the massive timelines, a lot of which is taken 479 00:28:03,840 --> 00:28:08,000 Speaker 1: in regulatory there I say, bureaucracy. Um, so that we 480 00:28:08,000 --> 00:28:11,679 Speaker 1: don't we don't spend so much time on just selling 481 00:28:11,680 --> 00:28:14,359 Speaker 1: out paperwork. And that's obviously good for the companies and 482 00:28:14,359 --> 00:28:19,159 Speaker 1: good for patients. Yeah, absolutely so. So some you know, 483 00:28:20,400 --> 00:28:23,480 Speaker 1: the numbers are rising all over. Tell us about Europe. 484 00:28:23,520 --> 00:28:25,119 Speaker 1: I mean, we pretty much know what's happening in the 485 00:28:25,160 --> 00:28:27,320 Speaker 1: United States. How bad is it across the Europe? Where 486 00:28:27,359 --> 00:28:30,320 Speaker 1: is it rising? Yes? So in Europe, I think the 487 00:28:30,320 --> 00:28:34,600 Speaker 1: majority of countries have turned it around. France, where I live, 488 00:28:34,680 --> 00:28:36,919 Speaker 1: has got below the twenty number. I mean you you 489 00:28:36,960 --> 00:28:38,880 Speaker 1: get the odd days where you get a case count 490 00:28:39,240 --> 00:28:41,800 Speaker 1: where somebody forgot to count something the day before, these 491 00:28:41,880 --> 00:28:44,920 Speaker 1: kind of things. Um, but they have certainly turned the corner. 492 00:28:45,000 --> 00:28:48,600 Speaker 1: The UK has has turned the corner or plateaued. Belgium 493 00:28:48,600 --> 00:28:50,840 Speaker 1: has turned the corner. I think Spain is plateauing, so 494 00:28:51,240 --> 00:28:53,560 Speaker 1: most of the countries the efforts have spent, which is 495 00:28:53,560 --> 00:28:56,600 Speaker 1: not shocking because the virus that gets transmitted when you 496 00:28:56,640 --> 00:28:59,840 Speaker 1: and I meet face to face, we've reduced that. Therefore, 497 00:29:00,080 --> 00:29:02,480 Speaker 1: thank god, the number of cases are falling, so it's 498 00:29:02,480 --> 00:29:04,720 Speaker 1: only in the right direction. So but I suspect that 499 00:29:04,840 --> 00:29:06,640 Speaker 1: they will be very careful when it comes to the 500 00:29:06,640 --> 00:29:10,520 Speaker 1: circles reopening. Hey, Sam, thanks so much for joining us. 501 00:29:10,960 --> 00:29:15,200 Speaker 1: As always, we appreciate your expertise. Sam Fazelli, Senior Pharmaceutical 502 00:29:15,200 --> 00:29:18,840 Speaker 1: analyst for Bloomberg Intelligence. He also manages the European research 503 00:29:18,920 --> 00:29:22,800 Speaker 1: business for Bloomberg Intelligence. And Vonnieu. We really appreciate getting 504 00:29:22,840 --> 00:29:27,160 Speaker 1: Sam's insights here. Thanks for listening to Bloomberg Markets podcast. 505 00:29:27,360 --> 00:29:30,680 Speaker 1: You can subscribe and listen to interviews at Apple Podcasts 506 00:29:30,880 --> 00:29:34,400 Speaker 1: or whatever podcast platform you prefer. I'm Bonnie Quinn. I'm 507 00:29:34,440 --> 00:29:37,040 Speaker 1: on Twitter at Bonnie Quinn, and I'm Paul Sweeney. I'm 508 00:29:37,080 --> 00:29:39,680 Speaker 1: on Twitter at pt Sweeney. Before the podcast, you can 509 00:29:39,760 --> 00:29:41,960 Speaker 1: always catch us worldwide at Bloomberg Radio.