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Speaker 1: terms and responsible gaming resources. All right, everybody welcome in.

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Speaker 1: Chad Milman gonna come up with Sharper Square, the CEO

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Speaker 1: of the Action Network, in about ten minutes. So you know,

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Speaker 1: I talk a lot and speculate a lot about who

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Speaker 1: I would hire for all these college and NFL jobs.

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Speaker 1: Two sources confirmed me a couple of days ago that

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Speaker 1: Greg Byrne, the very sharp athletic director at Alabama, had

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Speaker 1: been monitoring and doing some diligence on Washington Husky coach

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Speaker 1: Kaylin de Boor since September. That does not mean Kaylin

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Speaker 1: de bor is going to get the job. But two

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Speaker 1: different sources, none of my sources are agents trying to

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Speaker 1: promote people. It's not where my sources are said that

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Speaker 1: Greg Byrne was under the understanding that Nick Saban in

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Speaker 1: the next couple of years could be moving, could be retiring.

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Speaker 1: And that he wanted to do like all athletic directors

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Speaker 1: have a list, and that Kaylin de Boorr was near

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Speaker 1: the very top of it. I would have if I

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Speaker 1: was greg Byrn called Sark first. Reportedly he did. Sark

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Speaker 1: said no. I would have said no. I think Texas

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Speaker 1: is a great job and a great place to live,

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Speaker 1: but I think Kaylin de Boor is on a short

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Speaker 1: list of who I would have hired next. I have

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Speaker 1: been told if Caylan was offered the job, he would

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Speaker 1: accept the job. But you know a lot of these

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Speaker 1: things all go through Jimmy Sext and the agent, and

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Speaker 1: he's going to put one candidate against the other, and

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Speaker 1: you look up and pretty quick you instead of making

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Speaker 1: eight million, you're making nine point seven million, and you

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Speaker 1: get an extra year. So there's a lot of gamesmanship

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Speaker 1: behind this. Jimmy Sexton is a central figure all these hires.

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Speaker 1: He represents all the biggest names. But my sources were

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Speaker 1: excellent on Kaylan de Boor, and he is now the

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Speaker 1: betting favorite to get the job. He is a better

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Speaker 1: coach than Dan Lanning. Dan Lanning is a tremendous recruiter.

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Speaker 1: Some of that is simply Oregon's collective spearheaded by Phil Knight,

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Speaker 1: has more money than anybody else in the Pac twelve's collective.

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Speaker 1: So they do a really good job cleaning up on

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Speaker 1: West Coast recruiting. Andy inherited Mario Christobal's recruits Mario as

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Speaker 1: a game coach, as a recruiter top notch. So Lanning

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Speaker 1: really hasn't proven to me over the course of time

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Speaker 1: that he can win with his own guys. He can't

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Speaker 1: beat Kayland Boor with his own guys. He's Ozero for three.

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Speaker 1: And I like Dan Lanning, but de Bor is the

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Speaker 1: better coach. So I suspect if Kaylin de Boor doesn't

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Speaker 1: get the job, or does, he's one of the top

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Speaker 1: two candidates. Again, I would have called Stark first and

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Speaker 1: then it would be Kaylen de Boor and Dabo Sweeney

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Speaker 1: would be my top candidates. Now, in terms of the NFO,

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Speaker 1: where do I think the perfect landing spot for each

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Speaker 1: of the jobs is? Well, let's start with New England.

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Speaker 1: Because Belichick's the legend. I think they have to hire

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Speaker 1: an offensive coach with no connection to New England Gerrod Mayo,

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Speaker 1: linebacker coach for the Patriots. Belichick's system is all he

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Speaker 1: knows Mike Rabel, former Patriot again, he couldn't get the

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Speaker 1: offense right in Tennessee. The defense at New England is okay,

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Speaker 1: it's not great, it's okay. What you need is to

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Speaker 1: do sort of what the Detroit Lions did. You've got

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Speaker 1: to bring in the top personnel guy in the market

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Speaker 1: they did from the Rams. Then you bring in a

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Speaker 1: new coach, then you get top coordinators, and you just

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Speaker 1: bring in a new worldview. So I think Ben Johnson

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Speaker 1: would be an excellent hire for New England. He has

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Speaker 1: no connection to all the New England people. He's an

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Speaker 1: offensive guy. My guess is he may give me Jones

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Speaker 1: another year. Trade down, you could get a bevy of picks,

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Speaker 1: because I think New England has many issues. I think

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Speaker 1: if you get the quarterback right, it doesn't solve a

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Speaker 1: lot of your problems. So he may Ben Johnson may

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Speaker 1: just say, hey, you know, we got the third pick,

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Speaker 1: let's get the third best quarterback. I can say him

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Speaker 1: trading down six or seven spots, getting a Michael Pennix

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Speaker 1: or a bon Nix and five other picks. New England

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Speaker 1: needs lots and lots of pieces. They need two receivers,

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Speaker 1: they need to get another tight end, another pass rusher.

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Speaker 1: They were light on corners at the end of last year.

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Speaker 1: They don't really have a number one running back, tight end,

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Speaker 1: wide receiver. There's a lot of work and a quarterback.

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Speaker 1: So Ben Johnson to me, if I was Robert Kraft,

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Speaker 1: feels like and you've built so much equity up with

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Speaker 1: your fan base. If Ben doesn't work, you go out

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Speaker 1: and get another guy. You know, when you're the Red Sox,

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Speaker 1: when you're the Celtics, when you're the Patriots in England,

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Speaker 1: you don't have to hit on every coach. If it messages,

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Speaker 1: you get it, You get another try, get another stab

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Speaker 1: at it. Your your fan base is not selling their

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Speaker 1: season ticket. So Ben Johnson Patriots works for me. Jim

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Speaker 1: Harbor the Chargers works for me. The Chargers need to

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Speaker 1: they need to face the franchise justin Herbert is very reluctant.

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Speaker 1: He quarterbacks, doesn't want to be a star, doesn't have

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Speaker 1: any interest. Kind of hides and that's okay. He has

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Speaker 1: no interest getting caught up and social media and advertisements.

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Speaker 1: He'll do one or two subway commercials. But I think

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Speaker 1: Jim Harball gives the Chargers a much needed face of

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Speaker 1: the franchise. I think he's the best coach on the market,

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Speaker 1: and because they've gone with assistant coaches multiple times, I

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Speaker 1: don't think Ben Johnson has the gravitas or the fit needed.

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Speaker 1: So Sean mcvay's in the same building. You gotta go big,

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Speaker 1: You gotta go big. Harbor to the Chargers. If I

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Speaker 1: was Washington, I'd be very interested in Mike Vrabel. I

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Speaker 1: would prefer offensive coaches, but they have a ton of

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Speaker 1: cap space in Washington. Mike Vrabel knows the league. He

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Speaker 1: could go buy an offense, draft a quarterback with that

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Speaker 1: early pick, and then go buy an offense and upgrade

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Speaker 1: your defense. Vrabel to Washington, they would be a significantly

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Speaker 1: better team tomorrow. They've already got a couple of good

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Speaker 1: d linemen up front. Between the cap space and Mike's

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Speaker 1: ability to draft in personnel. Plus, he's not Harbar Belichick,

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Speaker 1: where he demands that he has control of personnel. He'd

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Speaker 1: like to say he doesn't need to have final say,

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Speaker 1: so I think Ben Johnson to the Patriots, Harbaugh of

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Speaker 1: the Chargers, and Mike Vrabel to Washington is what works

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Speaker 1: for me. Bill Belichick where well, it wouldn't be my

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Speaker 1: first pick, but I think Philadelphia if they lose to

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Speaker 1: the Buccaneers, is a very interesting landing spot. He would

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Speaker 1: not get ultimate power because Howie Roseman runs the show,

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Speaker 1: so Belichick could want power, he would not get ultimate

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Speaker 1: power over Howie Roseman. And when the other jobs dry up, Belichick,

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Speaker 1: who still wants to coach, is not going to have

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Speaker 1: the leverage or the say he would have if he

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Speaker 1: was the top candidate. He's not Harbaugh is and Mike

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Speaker 1: frable is and Ben Johnson for a lot of teams

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Speaker 1: is So I think Philadelphia with Howie Roseman running personnel

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Speaker 1: for Belichick. The weakness of the Eagles right now is

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Speaker 1: the back end of their defense. Belichick's the best ever

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Speaker 1: at drafting and developing corners and safeties and linebackers. He's

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Speaker 1: great at that. Then no offense, especially skilled people. They've

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Speaker 1: already got their quarterback, They've got some culture. They're not

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Speaker 1: a desperate franchise. Bill Belichick moves to the NFC Philadelphia

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Speaker 1: if Nick Serianni can't meet Tampa. My feeling is they

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Speaker 1: will and that will save his job. But they are

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Speaker 1: reeling and falling off a cliff, and Philadelphia has shown

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Speaker 1: they're not impulsive. They just have high stand There's a difference.

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Speaker 1: You know, Andy Reid was there for like, I think

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Speaker 1: like fourteen years, Chip Kelly was there, three, Doug Peterson

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Speaker 1: was there I think four to five, four and a

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Speaker 1: half five. So they're not impulsive, They're not Carolina, but

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Speaker 1: they are impatient with people who are mediocre or struggle.

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Speaker 1: So that would put Belichick in Philadelphia potentially. I don't

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Speaker 1: know what the best fit for Atlanta is. I will

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Speaker 1: tell you I think Kaylan de Boor in the NFL

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Speaker 1: works for me. Kaylan de Boor, his temperament, his ability

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Speaker 1: to elevate offense. You know, draft Michael Pennix go down

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Speaker 1: to Atlanta with those top seven offensive line, great running back,

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Speaker 1: great young receiver, good tight end. The defense needs to

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Speaker 1: be cleaned up. But I could see Atlanta drafting maybe

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Speaker 1: reaching a little for Michael Pennix. I think Kaylen de

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Speaker 1: Boor has to be considered for Atlanta. I think he's

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Speaker 1: that good of a coach. Not all college coaches struggle.

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Speaker 1: I've been told about Kaylan de boor temperament A plus

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Speaker 1: iq AA plus doesn't love to recruit. That's the one

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Speaker 1: knock on him as a college coach doesn't love to recruit.

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Speaker 1: So if I was Kaylan de Boor and I was

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Speaker 1: given the opportunity of NFL or Alabama, NFL is very

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Speaker 1: interesting to me. I mean, it's a better league than

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Speaker 1: college football. It's got a better coaching pension. You don't

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Speaker 1: have to deal with a nonsense of the transfer portal,

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Speaker 1: crazy donors and boosters NCAA. I would just say, as

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Speaker 1: a wild card, keep your eye onto Bore. With the

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Speaker 1: Atlanta Falcons off another winning week three and two, blazing

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Speaker 1: five for the record thirteen to the last fifteen weeks

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Speaker 1: or is it fourteen to sixteen? I was five hundred

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Speaker 1: or better sixty three percent after my disastrous opening two weeks,

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Speaker 1: so we had a very good season of blazing five

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Speaker 1: Sharper Square Chad Milman, Coco Action Network, All odds provided

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Speaker 1: by DraftKings. You know, the game that I talked myself,

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Speaker 1: you and McIntyre talked me out of was the Texans,

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Speaker 1: and so you know the numbers, It did feel like

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Speaker 1: a Colt's play. But one of the reasons I think

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Speaker 1: that the Consumers fans had one of their best years

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Speaker 1: ever because increasingly over the last two years it has

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Speaker 1: gotten so quarterback centric. Last year, seven of seven playoff

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Speaker 1: teams in the NFC had offensive coaches. This year, it's

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Speaker 1: eleven of fourteen was twelve of fourteen for most of

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Speaker 1: the season. And I think c J. Stroud listening watching

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Speaker 1: those who either cover him or watch him or judge

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Speaker 1: his film. I think we're looking at a deep ball

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Speaker 1: thrower that is one of the best in the league

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Speaker 1: accuracy seeing the field. So I know the Browns have

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Speaker 1: a better roster, but Joe Flacco's story has actually been

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Speaker 1: better than his quarterback. His passer rating has been ninety.

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Speaker 1: The story's great, his quarterback play has been okay. I

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Speaker 1: would take CJ. Stroud at home plus two and a half.

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Speaker 1: Don't think they have the roster. I know rookie quarterbacks

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Speaker 1: don't do all in the playoffs, but I think we're

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Speaker 1: looking at a special player Sharper square.

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Speaker 2: Yeah. The way you're describing it is similar to how

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Speaker 2: wise guys have been describing CJ. Stroud is that he's

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Speaker 2: neo from the matrix, right. There's something about him that

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Speaker 2: is unicorn esque, and he defies all the expectations. He

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Speaker 2: breaks all the models. He changes the rules for what

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Speaker 2: we expect. We shouldn't want to bet on a rookie

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Speaker 2: coach with a rookie quarterback against the best defense in

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Speaker 2: the NFL in the playoffs, And yet that's what we

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Speaker 2: want to do. And if you break this game down

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Speaker 2: a little bit further, the Texans were six and three

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Speaker 2: at home this year, six and two playing with c J. Stroud.

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Speaker 2: One of those games he missed. It happened to be

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Speaker 2: the game in which Joe Flacco and Amari Cooper had

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Speaker 2: a career day against the Texans in Houston. When he

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Speaker 2: was at home, c J. Stroud threw for twenty five

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Speaker 2: hundred yards. He threw four seven yard no nine yards

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Speaker 2: per completion, threw for seventeen touchdowns. When the Cleveland Browns

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Speaker 2: defense was on the road, they gave up thirty points

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Speaker 2: a game. They had eight road games, nine holding games.

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Speaker 2: In those eight road games, they gave up one hundred

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Speaker 2: and twelve more points than they did in the nine

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Speaker 2: games at home. Everything about their defense is different when

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Speaker 2: they're on the road. So the wise guys are on

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Speaker 2: the Texans at two and a half. This game actually

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Speaker 2: opened at two, got that down to one and a half.

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Speaker 2: The public came in and rode it back up to three.

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Speaker 2: Wise guys took the three. Now it's settle the two

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Speaker 2: and a half. Personally, I'm waiting hoping that it gets

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Speaker 2: back to three sometime before kickoff. A lot of lines

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Speaker 2: have been moving aggressively before kickoff, so I'm hoping it

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Speaker 2: gets back to three. But the Wise guys are with you, Colin.

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Speaker 1: Okay, we're not getting the best of the number, not

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Speaker 1: even close. But the Chiefs minus four and a half,

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Speaker 1: I think, you know it's all bets are off zero degrees.

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Speaker 1: I mean Tua under like forty degrees has been a

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Speaker 1: different quarterback. Tua in December and January is a five

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Speaker 1: hundred quarterback. He's a Hawaiian kid who plays in Miami

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Speaker 1: and then in Alabama. This is all just like taking

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Speaker 1: a surfer and saying, here's anchorage, take your shirt off,

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Speaker 1: good luck. It's just different. So I think.

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Speaker 2: I think.

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Speaker 1: I also think the Chiefs rested people at home. They're

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Speaker 1: used to it. It's just a weather advantage. I would

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Speaker 1: take the Chiefs to cover. The number was at like

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Speaker 1: one and a half half at one point two, so

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Speaker 1: it's not the best of the number, but I think

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Speaker 1: i'd still take Chiefs. Sharper square.

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Speaker 2: Well, it's square at four and a half because of

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Speaker 2: what you just said. Look, if it was Chiefs one

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Speaker 2: and a half, it was Chiefs two to two and

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Speaker 2: a half, even Chiefs three, then the wise guys were

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Speaker 2: playing the Chiefs. But as soon as it got to

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Speaker 2: three and a half, and then all of a sudden,

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Speaker 2: it's four and four and a half, you're just playing

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Speaker 2: a bad number. And long term you might win this weekend,

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Speaker 2: but long term it's not the right play, right And

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Speaker 2: so there's a couple of things that have made this

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Speaker 2: number run. I think one, the weather people already believe

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Speaker 2: the narrative that the Dolphins can't play in the cold,

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Speaker 2: to the injuries that the Dolphins have suffered suffered defensively,

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Speaker 2: I don't know how they're going to rush the passer.

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Speaker 2: Are they only going to be able to rush the

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Speaker 2: passer by blitzing? And if you blitz you don't win

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Speaker 2: against Patrick Mahomes. But here's the flip side, and here's

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Speaker 2: why the wise guys like the doll Dolphins in this spot. One,

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Speaker 2: these aren't the Chiefs of years past, right, They really

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Speaker 2: don't have any reliable downfield target. So the Dolphins can

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Speaker 2: bracket Travis Kelce coming off the line at tight end,

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Speaker 2: double team him, and then you basically put Jalen Ramsey

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Speaker 2: on Brashi Rice and you've taken away all the weapons

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Speaker 2: that Patrick Mahomes has. And the flip side is the

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Speaker 2: Chiefs defense is better than anything Patrick Mahomes has ever

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Speaker 2: played with. The Dolphins. What's their mo? While they're a

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Speaker 2: great downfield passing team, they're a really great running team.

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Speaker 2: Don't forget Mike McDaniels. He's a running game coordinator. Right

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Speaker 2: Raheem Moster limited practice, I would expect him to play.

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Speaker 2: Devon h Chan brilliant out of the backfield as are

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Speaker 2: running back this year. I think this will be a

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Speaker 2: closer game than people think. So that's why the wise

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Speaker 2: guys are taking the four and a half. Personally, I

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Speaker 2: took the under forty four and a half. I'm not

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Speaker 2: taking a side in this game.

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Speaker 1: Okay, Packers plus seven and a half would be the

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Speaker 1: side at Dallas. Dallas is going to score points. Joe

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Speaker 1: Berry's defense has been a siev most of the year,

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Speaker 1: but Green Bay is a live dog. Four different receivers.

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Speaker 1: I like good tight ends, Jordan Love playing well. If

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Speaker 1: Dallas went seven and a half for a Green Bay team.

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Speaker 1: That I mean, if I told you they scored twenty seven,

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Speaker 1: you'd be like, yeah, I can see that. I mean,

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Speaker 1: Joe Berry's defense looked good against Chicago. It's not good.

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Speaker 1: So I think it's a thirty three to twenty seven,

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Speaker 1: thirty three to twenty eight fun game to watch. Seven

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Speaker 1: and a half feels way too heavy. I'll take green Bay.

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Speaker 2: Sharper Square totally nailed it. Wise, guys are all over

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Speaker 2: green Bay here. It's really interesting because this number probably

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Speaker 2: should be power rated at six and the line should

306
00:17:45,960 --> 00:17:49,159
Speaker 2: be about six for this game. You have two defenses

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Speaker 2: that you say, Joe Berry and the Packers defense is

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Speaker 2: very good. But look, the Cowboys defense gets more credit

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Speaker 2: than it deserves. If past rushes, it's pass rush is

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Speaker 2: middle of the road. You've got Micah Parson, who's, you know,

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Speaker 2: an All Pro, had more sacks this year than he's

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Speaker 2: ever had. And you've got a defensive secondary with George Bland,

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Speaker 2: who had more pick sixes than ever led the league

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Speaker 2: in interceptions. Between those two spectrums, it's a lot of sizzle,

315
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Speaker 2: not a lot of steak. And so this is a

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Speaker 2: pass rush that is middling at best. So I wouldn't

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Speaker 2: expect them to be a team that puts Jordan Love

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Speaker 2: on his heels. And by the way, they play a

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Speaker 2: lot of man. Jordan Love's passer rating is thirteen points

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Speaker 2: higher against man that it is against zone. And what

321
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Speaker 2: you're doing against Jordan Love right now, don't forget Dak

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Speaker 2: Prescott let the league in touchdown passes. Jordan Love was

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Speaker 2: number two. Jordan Love since November has just been lights

324
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Speaker 2: out elite as a quarterback, and I think it speaks

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Speaker 2: to a coaching advantage for the Packers. Matt Laflor just

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Speaker 2: a better coach than Mike McCarthy. We've seen it. Mike

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Speaker 2: McCarthy is not great in late game situations. He is

328
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Speaker 2: not great in managing the clock. Very good chance to

329
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Speaker 2: pack The Cowboys put themselves in a very bad position

330
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Speaker 2: with bad decision making late in the game.

331
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Speaker 1: One agree with you, Yeah, this is the easy one.

332
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Speaker 1: Rams plus the points three and a half at Lions

333
00:19:16,480 --> 00:19:18,760
Speaker 1: was four at one point. I get a coaching advantage,

334
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Speaker 1: a quarterback advantage, a health advantage, and I think people

335
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Speaker 1: are forgetting just how good the Rams draft was. Their

336
00:19:26,160 --> 00:19:29,479
Speaker 1: first three picks, a left guard, a defensive tackle who

337
00:19:29,520 --> 00:19:32,240
Speaker 1: should be the rookie of the year. Defensively, an outside

338
00:19:32,320 --> 00:19:35,639
Speaker 1: linebacker who is relentless. And in the fifth round, they

339
00:19:35,640 --> 00:19:37,960
Speaker 1: got the steal of the entire draft in Puka and Akua.

340
00:19:38,280 --> 00:19:41,159
Speaker 1: Their special teams are dubious. So that's what scares me.

341
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Speaker 1: I don't think they win the Super Bowl, but as

342
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Speaker 1: a healthy team, coach quarterback upgrade, and they have young players.

343
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Speaker 1: We all know Puka, but they have nailed this draft.

344
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Speaker 1: This is a team runs the ball, can throw it deep,

345
00:19:59,320 --> 00:20:03,680
Speaker 1: can rush the They're not a great team. You can

346
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Speaker 1: They're a little like Detroit. They can score a lot.

347
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Speaker 1: You can beat them over the top. But there's no

348
00:20:08,920 --> 00:20:12,240
Speaker 1: way I'm giving over your field goal to the Rams.

349
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Speaker 1: The Rams could easily win this game. Rams plus three

350
00:20:15,720 --> 00:20:17,600
Speaker 1: and a half sharper square totally right.

351
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Speaker 2: It's another live dog. By the way, if you're putting

352
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Speaker 2: together a money line parlay, you could do worse than

353
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Speaker 2: putting together a parlay with the Rams and the Packers.

354
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Speaker 2: Because I agree with you one hundred percent. The wise

355
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Speaker 2: guys agree with you as well. They're going to be

356
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Speaker 2: on the Rams at three and a half. They did

357
00:20:31,280 --> 00:20:35,160
Speaker 2: bet it down from four almost immediately on Sunday night,

358
00:20:35,200 --> 00:20:37,879
Speaker 2: it was the first game that the wise guys started

359
00:20:37,880 --> 00:20:40,880
Speaker 2: pounding when the wildcard games were announced, and you didn't

360
00:20:40,920 --> 00:20:45,760
Speaker 2: even mention Colin Kyen Williams. This has been a different

361
00:20:45,800 --> 00:20:49,919
Speaker 2: team since Kyen Williams came back from injury. Matthew Stafford.

362
00:20:50,200 --> 00:20:53,240
Speaker 2: When's the last time like Matthew Stafford wasn't sort of

363
00:20:53,280 --> 00:20:56,080
Speaker 2: the focal point of the offense, didn't throw for four

364
00:20:56,080 --> 00:20:58,879
Speaker 2: thousand yards this year, played in every game, but this

365
00:20:59,000 --> 00:21:04,360
Speaker 2: team was accelerating towards the playoffs when Kyrin Williams came back.

366
00:21:04,440 --> 00:21:08,320
Speaker 2: Great coaching season by Sean McVay. I'm curious to me

367
00:21:08,400 --> 00:21:10,639
Speaker 2: that you think he's that much better of a coach

368
00:21:11,240 --> 00:21:13,439
Speaker 2: than Dan Campbell. I don't see the difference in this

369
00:21:13,560 --> 00:21:16,879
Speaker 2: game being on the sidelines. To me, the real difference

370
00:21:16,960 --> 00:21:19,720
Speaker 2: might end up being the fact that Sam Laporta isn't

371
00:21:19,760 --> 00:21:24,200
Speaker 2: playing because he's a guy who this past season second

372
00:21:24,320 --> 00:21:28,520
Speaker 2: most first down receptions on the Lions, finished the season

373
00:21:28,560 --> 00:21:31,640
Speaker 2: with the most receptions ever for a tight end, tied

374
00:21:31,720 --> 00:21:35,480
Speaker 2: for the most touchdown receptions. I think the books are

375
00:21:35,520 --> 00:21:39,639
Speaker 2: discounting how important he is to the Lions and Jared

376
00:21:39,680 --> 00:21:40,879
Speaker 2: Goff's comfort.

377
00:21:42,000 --> 00:21:44,720
Speaker 1: This is a line game. If the Eagles are minus

378
00:21:44,760 --> 00:21:47,119
Speaker 1: three and a half, I probably go box, but I

379
00:21:47,119 --> 00:21:49,160
Speaker 1: think it's a close twenty seven to twenty four game.

380
00:21:49,200 --> 00:21:51,200
Speaker 1: I'll take the Eagles minus two and a half. Much

381
00:21:51,240 --> 00:21:55,960
Speaker 1: better personnel, I mean Tampa down the stretch, maybe Carolina

382
00:21:56,000 --> 00:21:58,000
Speaker 1: a couple times. I think, you know, it's a little

383
00:21:58,000 --> 00:21:59,919
Speaker 1: like the Joe Flacco story. The story is better than

384
00:21:59,960 --> 00:22:02,600
Speaker 1: the reality. I don't think dam is very good. They

385
00:22:02,600 --> 00:22:05,120
Speaker 1: don't have really a home field advantage. Half that stadium

386
00:22:05,160 --> 00:22:08,520
Speaker 1: will be Eagles fans two and a half. The numbers

387
00:22:08,760 --> 00:22:11,280
Speaker 1: to me affillate number sharper square.

388
00:22:11,760 --> 00:22:13,680
Speaker 2: It's totally sharp if you're playing two and a half.

389
00:22:13,760 --> 00:22:15,479
Speaker 2: If it's three and a half, the wise guys are

390
00:22:15,480 --> 00:22:17,880
Speaker 2: going to play the Bucks. That's it, like, that's that's

391
00:22:17,920 --> 00:22:21,080
Speaker 2: how it's going to go. So check your local listings,

392
00:22:21,440 --> 00:22:23,679
Speaker 2: figure out what you want the number to be, and

393
00:22:23,680 --> 00:22:27,359
Speaker 2: play the half point on either side. The greatest advantage

394
00:22:27,440 --> 00:22:30,600
Speaker 2: that the Bucks really have could be in the middle

395
00:22:30,600 --> 00:22:32,439
Speaker 2: of the field with Kate Atten. If you want to

396
00:22:32,440 --> 00:22:34,760
Speaker 2: be taking a player prop, you might want to think

397
00:22:34,760 --> 00:22:39,359
Speaker 2: about playing his over reception yards. Keep it under say

398
00:22:39,880 --> 00:22:42,879
Speaker 2: twenty three twenty four if you can find that. But

399
00:22:43,200 --> 00:22:45,719
Speaker 2: the other advantage has been Baker mayfield to Mike Evans

400
00:22:45,720 --> 00:22:47,520
Speaker 2: this year. You know, Mike Evans tied for the league

401
00:22:47,640 --> 00:22:50,520
Speaker 2: lead in touchdown receptions. But if it's going to be

402
00:22:50,640 --> 00:22:53,239
Speaker 2: terrible weather and there's going to be weather all up

403
00:22:53,280 --> 00:22:56,600
Speaker 2: and down throughout the country, then and it might be

404
00:22:56,720 --> 00:22:59,639
Speaker 2: torrential rain there, that's going to limit Baker's ability to

405
00:22:59,640 --> 00:23:03,720
Speaker 2: get the b downfield to Mike Evans. So it's a

406
00:23:03,840 --> 00:23:07,800
Speaker 2: really really tricky game to bet. If you have to

407
00:23:07,840 --> 00:23:10,080
Speaker 2: pick a side, you got to play the number.

408
00:23:11,560 --> 00:23:16,720
Speaker 1: And finally, the Bills game could be moved. There's so

409
00:23:16,840 --> 00:23:21,280
Speaker 1: much snow. Buffalo's a much better team. TJ watch not playing.

410
00:23:21,400 --> 00:23:26,159
Speaker 1: I Mike Tomlin getting ten in crappy weather. It's like,

411
00:23:26,480 --> 00:23:29,520
Speaker 1: that's a stayaway game for me. Talk me into the side.

412
00:23:29,560 --> 00:23:32,119
Speaker 2: The wise guys like, well, look, the wise guys are

413
00:23:32,160 --> 00:23:34,080
Speaker 2: sort of thinking the same thing as you. Right, don't

414
00:23:34,080 --> 00:23:36,159
Speaker 2: forget this game opened at seven and a half, it

415
00:23:36,240 --> 00:23:40,080
Speaker 2: lasted for about thirty seconds, and got that up immediately

416
00:23:41,119 --> 00:23:44,920
Speaker 2: to nine and a half. Ten. I, unfortunately am the

417
00:23:44,960 --> 00:23:47,920
Speaker 2: sucker who looked at it on Tuesday and was like, yes,

418
00:23:48,000 --> 00:23:49,840
Speaker 2: screw it, I don't care what the number is. The

419
00:23:49,920 --> 00:23:53,600
Speaker 2: Bills are going to destroy this team. I bet it

420
00:23:53,640 --> 00:23:57,000
Speaker 2: at minus ten and then forty eight hours later, I'm,

421
00:23:57,359 --> 00:24:00,720
Speaker 2: you know, getting reports of the winter apocalypse coming into

422
00:24:01,200 --> 00:24:04,040
Speaker 2: western New York. So that scares me quite a bit.

423
00:24:04,359 --> 00:24:08,920
Speaker 2: But if not for the weather, I would tell you, yeah,

424
00:24:09,520 --> 00:24:12,160
Speaker 2: you take the freaking Bills and you eat the number

425
00:24:12,240 --> 00:24:15,919
Speaker 2: and you don't care. Because the Steelers forget about the

426
00:24:16,000 --> 00:24:19,680
Speaker 2: fact that they're going to have a first playoff game

427
00:24:19,920 --> 00:24:24,320
Speaker 2: quarterback in Mason Rudolph, which is never a good scenario. CJ.

428
00:24:24,480 --> 00:24:30,159
Speaker 2: Stroud it accepted. Without TJ. Watt, this is just a

429
00:24:30,160 --> 00:24:33,240
Speaker 2: different team in terms of they're a bad team. So

430
00:24:34,000 --> 00:24:36,760
Speaker 2: you cannot bet on the Steelers if they're not going

431
00:24:36,840 --> 00:24:39,960
Speaker 2: to have TJ. Watt. The problem is the weather, which

432
00:24:40,000 --> 00:24:43,560
Speaker 2: is such a mystery and X factor right now. If

433
00:24:43,600 --> 00:24:46,600
Speaker 2: you haven't bet it yet, don't bet it.

434
00:24:48,320 --> 00:24:51,080
Speaker 1: And finally, before we let you go, we'll be bringing

435
00:24:51,119 --> 00:24:53,600
Speaker 1: you on for a few more weeks. All the coaching

436
00:24:53,720 --> 00:24:57,280
Speaker 1: changes are interesting. You're closer to the New England part

437
00:24:57,320 --> 00:24:59,720
Speaker 1: of the country. I have said I would go, I

438
00:24:59,720 --> 00:25:02,399
Speaker 1: would clean it out. I would go Ben Johnson, I

439
00:25:02,440 --> 00:25:06,639
Speaker 1: would I would consider trading down and getting They need

440
00:25:06,720 --> 00:25:08,920
Speaker 1: so many things on offense. They need two receivers, two

441
00:25:08,960 --> 00:25:12,040
Speaker 1: tight ends, a better left tackle. I mean, I could

442
00:25:12,119 --> 00:25:14,760
Speaker 1: argue quarterback. They need everything. And I think if you

443
00:25:14,760 --> 00:25:16,960
Speaker 1: could get bow Nicks at twelve, trade down to twelve

444
00:25:17,040 --> 00:25:19,720
Speaker 1: and get four or five more picks, I'd love to

445
00:25:19,720 --> 00:25:23,240
Speaker 1: see mac Jones with an offensive minded coach Ben Johnson.

446
00:25:23,240 --> 00:25:25,240
Speaker 1: That's the fit for me. I like Vrabel, but he

447
00:25:25,240 --> 00:25:28,400
Speaker 1: couldn't get the offense right in Tennessee. McVeigh would struggle

448
00:25:28,680 --> 00:25:31,480
Speaker 1: rebuilding this offense in two years, so would Shanahan. They

449
00:25:31,480 --> 00:25:33,840
Speaker 1: just don want to be players. So I would just say, hey, listen,

450
00:25:33,880 --> 00:25:36,200
Speaker 1: we're just going to go Ben Johnson, We're going to

451
00:25:36,280 --> 00:25:41,479
Speaker 1: go buy an offense. The defense has some players, is

452
00:25:41,520 --> 00:25:47,560
Speaker 1: there when you look at all these openings, is there?

453
00:25:48,680 --> 00:25:51,520
Speaker 1: For instance, would you give Pete Carroll another shot?

454
00:25:52,440 --> 00:25:52,680
Speaker 2: Yes?

455
00:25:54,000 --> 00:25:55,679
Speaker 1: Okay, Now I don't look.

456
00:25:56,000 --> 00:26:00,480
Speaker 2: I don't think Pete Carroll's ready to quit, don't forget.

457
00:26:00,280 --> 00:26:04,480
Speaker 2: At his press conference the other day, he was acting

458
00:26:04,600 --> 00:26:06,920
Speaker 2: like he was getting ready to go back into the room,

459
00:26:06,960 --> 00:26:09,760
Speaker 2: start prepping for the draft, get to mini camps and

460
00:26:10,240 --> 00:26:14,600
Speaker 2: get into training camp and play another season with Gino Smith.

461
00:26:14,720 --> 00:26:18,440
Speaker 2: And by the way, he just had two winning seasons.

462
00:26:18,440 --> 00:26:21,840
Speaker 2: With Geno Smith. He's the guy who first recognized that

463
00:26:21,960 --> 00:26:24,040
Speaker 2: Russell Wilson might have been cooked and made the hard

464
00:26:24,040 --> 00:26:28,000
Speaker 2: decisions to jettison Russell Wilson and take the heat for that.

465
00:26:28,480 --> 00:26:33,960
Speaker 2: Like I'm if I'm David Tepper and I'm already not

466
00:26:34,359 --> 00:26:38,040
Speaker 2: proving myself to be a very good owner, and I've

467
00:26:38,080 --> 00:26:40,720
Speaker 2: got a bad rep and I've made bad decisions, and

468
00:26:40,760 --> 00:26:44,000
Speaker 2: I'm firing my GMS, and I'm throwing drinks at fans

469
00:26:44,040 --> 00:26:48,080
Speaker 2: and I'm forcing my team to draft Bryce Young. I

470
00:26:48,160 --> 00:26:49,920
Speaker 2: go out and get Pete Carroll and he teaches me

471
00:26:50,000 --> 00:26:51,960
Speaker 2: how to be a football owner and also how to

472
00:26:52,119 --> 00:26:56,359
Speaker 2: enjoy the experience of having a football team.

473
00:26:59,680 --> 00:27:02,000
Speaker 1: What do you make of the Atlanta job? I threw out,

474
00:27:02,440 --> 00:27:05,760
Speaker 1: I'll throw it so I before this in my preamble,

475
00:27:05,800 --> 00:27:10,199
Speaker 1: I talked about coaches, I said. Two sources told me

476
00:27:10,240 --> 00:27:13,200
Speaker 1: this week that Alabama ad Greg Burn has been watching

477
00:27:13,280 --> 00:27:16,639
Speaker 1: Kaylan de Boor for two three months and he is

478
00:27:16,680 --> 00:27:18,560
Speaker 1: the betting favorite now. So I had a pretty good

479
00:27:18,640 --> 00:27:21,080
Speaker 1: two good sources on that if he doesn't get the

480
00:27:21,119 --> 00:27:24,960
Speaker 1: Bama job, I would consider the Atlanta Falcons and Kaylan

481
00:27:25,040 --> 00:27:30,600
Speaker 1: de Boor he has kind of an NFL temperament. They

482
00:27:30,640 --> 00:27:33,320
Speaker 1: have good offensive piece O lines top six or seven

483
00:27:33,880 --> 00:27:38,200
Speaker 1: good offensive pieces. He knows Pennix and bow Nicks better

484
00:27:38,240 --> 00:27:41,720
Speaker 1: than anybody. He's faced bo Nicks three times. He's had Pennix.

485
00:27:42,040 --> 00:27:44,639
Speaker 1: Those guys are not top six to seven picks, so

486
00:27:44,800 --> 00:27:47,440
Speaker 1: he would know where to go on that. He would

487
00:27:47,480 --> 00:27:50,080
Speaker 1: get the quarterback right, the offense is ready to go.

488
00:27:50,359 --> 00:27:54,760
Speaker 1: The division's wonky, and he is a detail maven. He

489
00:27:54,920 --> 00:28:00,440
Speaker 1: is a brilliant detail guy. That's my like, what huh wait,

490
00:28:01,119 --> 00:28:04,680
Speaker 1: Kaylin de Boor to the Falcons. So that's my take.

491
00:28:04,760 --> 00:28:07,800
Speaker 2: Okay, I don't know. I'm much like, Look, if you

492
00:28:08,119 --> 00:28:10,879
Speaker 2: want to get an offensive guy in there, obviously, but

493
00:28:11,600 --> 00:28:13,960
Speaker 2: I would want to get a guy who is going

494
00:28:14,000 --> 00:28:16,679
Speaker 2: to be able to figure out who has had the

495
00:28:17,320 --> 00:28:21,720
Speaker 2: coaching experience in the NFL as much as Kaylin de

496
00:28:21,800 --> 00:28:24,960
Speaker 2: Boor as a genius and what he has done in college.

497
00:28:25,440 --> 00:28:29,880
Speaker 2: It is a rough transition. Pete Carroll is the exception,

498
00:28:30,359 --> 00:28:34,040
Speaker 2: not the rule. And we've seen how well certain coaches

499
00:28:34,240 --> 00:28:37,600
Speaker 2: who have been coordinators at the NFL level with a

500
00:28:37,600 --> 00:28:42,120
Speaker 2: certain type of experience have done. If we're talking about Shanahan,

501
00:28:42,440 --> 00:28:47,040
Speaker 2: if we're talking about Stefanski, if we're talking about O'Connell, right.

502
00:28:47,400 --> 00:28:50,479
Speaker 2: Even Brian Dable, you know at Buffalo, was the Buffalo

503
00:28:50,520 --> 00:28:53,760
Speaker 2: Bills offensive coordinator. So give me a guy who has

504
00:28:53,800 --> 00:28:56,800
Speaker 2: been running a system at a high level in the NFL.

505
00:28:57,360 --> 00:29:00,920
Speaker 2: And then I also feel like the Falcons, as good

506
00:29:00,920 --> 00:29:02,680
Speaker 2: as their offensive line is in the right side of

507
00:29:02,680 --> 00:29:06,640
Speaker 2: their offensive line could be as good as any in

508
00:29:06,640 --> 00:29:08,640
Speaker 2: the NFL. And when they were all healthy earlier in

509
00:29:08,640 --> 00:29:11,560
Speaker 2: the year, the Falcons running to the right were better

510
00:29:11,600 --> 00:29:14,400
Speaker 2: than any team. And that was a surefire bet was

511
00:29:14,440 --> 00:29:16,600
Speaker 2: to bet on the Falcons being able to run to

512
00:29:16,640 --> 00:29:19,520
Speaker 2: the right. I don't know if they're gonna be able

513
00:29:19,520 --> 00:29:22,520
Speaker 2: to keep all those pieces right. They don't have any quarterbacking.

514
00:29:22,920 --> 00:29:26,040
Speaker 2: And sure you can say in their draft slot, do

515
00:29:26,080 --> 00:29:27,760
Speaker 2: they want to get bow Nicks, Do they want to

516
00:29:27,800 --> 00:29:30,280
Speaker 2: get Michael Pennix? Do they want to go trade for

517
00:29:30,400 --> 00:29:31,920
Speaker 2: Justin Fields? And what are you going to have to

518
00:29:31,920 --> 00:29:34,160
Speaker 2: give up to get Justin Fields? Well, you have to

519
00:29:34,160 --> 00:29:37,760
Speaker 2: give up a second round player and an important piece

520
00:29:37,880 --> 00:29:42,400
Speaker 2: of your offensive line. So I think there's interesting scenarios there.

521
00:29:42,800 --> 00:29:44,959
Speaker 2: I don't want a college coach coaching my team if

522
00:29:44,960 --> 00:29:46,120
Speaker 2: I'm an Atlanta Falcons fan.

523
00:29:46,680 --> 00:29:48,479
Speaker 1: Finally, Belichick. Where should he go?

524
00:29:51,160 --> 00:29:54,120
Speaker 2: That's really interesting in my heart at hearts, I would

525
00:29:54,240 --> 00:29:57,520
Speaker 2: love to see Belichick doing TV. I think he'd be

526
00:29:57,600 --> 00:30:03,000
Speaker 2: amazing at it, But look, he's fourteen games away. Can

527
00:30:03,080 --> 00:30:07,400
Speaker 2: you imagine Belichick with the Chargers turning that defense into

528
00:30:07,440 --> 00:30:11,200
Speaker 2: something that doesn't collapse at the end of every game

529
00:30:11,600 --> 00:30:16,520
Speaker 2: and ruin what could be an amazing career for Justin Herbert,

530
00:30:16,560 --> 00:30:22,680
Speaker 2: an amazing career for Keenan Allen. He's good enough offensively, obviously,

531
00:30:22,960 --> 00:30:26,240
Speaker 2: we saw how he developed Tom Brady over those years.

532
00:30:26,320 --> 00:30:29,560
Speaker 2: Tom Brady's a different cat, right He's he is a

533
00:30:29,640 --> 00:30:32,240
Speaker 2: true unicorn. We can agree he's the greatest of all time.

534
00:30:32,760 --> 00:30:37,160
Speaker 2: What he did for himself in separate from Bill Belichick

535
00:30:37,480 --> 00:30:40,560
Speaker 2: turned him into the greatest ever. But what Bill Belichick

536
00:30:40,600 --> 00:30:44,160
Speaker 2: could teach Justin Herbert about recognizing coverages could just make

537
00:30:44,240 --> 00:30:46,680
Speaker 2: him a better quarterback. You and I both agree, like Herbert,

538
00:30:47,320 --> 00:30:50,600
Speaker 2: he didn't regress, but he didn't reach the next level

539
00:30:50,640 --> 00:30:53,360
Speaker 2: this year. A lot of injuries. There's too much talent

540
00:30:53,440 --> 00:30:56,120
Speaker 2: on that team being wasted. I'd love to see Bill

541
00:30:56,200 --> 00:31:00,600
Speaker 2: Belichick coaching a team that has historically underachieved and always

542
00:31:00,600 --> 00:31:01,920
Speaker 2: having an amazing roster.

543
00:31:02,880 --> 00:31:06,280
Speaker 1: All right, Chad Cross, our fingers, Sharper Square Action Network,

544
00:31:06,320 --> 00:31:08,720
Speaker 1: all oldgs provided by DraftKings, Buddy Good Seniors.

545
00:31:08,760 --> 00:31:11,680
Speaker 2: As a wlody dude, hold on, hold on what I

546
00:31:11,720 --> 00:31:15,000
Speaker 2: need to give you some stats because we went through

547
00:31:15,000 --> 00:31:21,680
Speaker 2: a forty eight hour cycle. Nick Saban, Pete Carroll, Bill Belichick.

548
00:31:22,320 --> 00:31:27,280
Speaker 2: These are legendary coaches. There have been forty eight NFL

549
00:31:27,520 --> 00:31:32,719
Speaker 2: and college football title games since two thousand. They coached

550
00:31:32,720 --> 00:31:36,840
Speaker 2: in twenty two of them. Forty six percent of the

551
00:31:36,960 --> 00:31:40,160
Speaker 2: overall title games in pro and college football they coached in.

552
00:31:40,200 --> 00:31:43,200
Speaker 2: And if we're going to talk about betting, these guys

553
00:31:43,760 --> 00:31:47,719
Speaker 2: deserve their own wing. Fifty five percent against the spread

554
00:31:48,120 --> 00:31:53,000
Speaker 2: in their careers combined. But here is my favorite stat. Okay,

555
00:31:53,960 --> 00:31:56,400
Speaker 2: you and I talk about this all the time. You

556
00:31:56,440 --> 00:31:59,640
Speaker 2: want to fade big favorites, teams that are a touchdown

557
00:31:59,720 --> 00:32:02,200
Speaker 2: or more or doesn't matter who they are. We're doing

558
00:32:02,200 --> 00:32:04,000
Speaker 2: it this week. We're going to fade the Cowboys at

559
00:32:04,040 --> 00:32:09,720
Speaker 2: seven and a half. Right, these guys broke every single

560
00:32:10,080 --> 00:32:16,080
Speaker 2: rule when it comes to betting big favorites. Bill Belichick

561
00:32:16,840 --> 00:32:20,960
Speaker 2: fifty four percent against the spread as a big favorite

562
00:32:21,000 --> 00:32:25,440
Speaker 2: seven or more. Nick Saban fifty six percent against the

563
00:32:25,480 --> 00:32:29,160
Speaker 2: spread Pete Carroll fifty five percent, College fifty three percent.

564
00:32:29,520 --> 00:32:32,720
Speaker 2: In the pros as favorites of seven or more combined,

565
00:32:33,840 --> 00:32:37,080
Speaker 2: these guys were fifty five percent. You got to win

566
00:32:37,160 --> 00:32:38,880
Speaker 2: fifty two point three to be in the money. You

567
00:32:38,920 --> 00:32:43,400
Speaker 2: win fifty five percent, you are a world class gambler.

568
00:32:43,440 --> 00:32:47,240
Speaker 2: If you had spent one hundred dollars just betting on

569
00:32:47,400 --> 00:32:52,680
Speaker 2: these guys, you would be up five thousand dollars.

570
00:32:53,600 --> 00:32:56,560
Speaker 1: So what does that mean when thirteen of the last

571
00:32:56,600 --> 00:32:59,480
Speaker 1: fifteen weeks I hit sixty three percent? What does that mean?

572
00:32:59,520 --> 00:33:01,520
Speaker 1: What kind of and where am I colin?

573
00:33:02,440 --> 00:33:07,680
Speaker 2: Your world class at everything? You don't need me to

574
00:33:07,720 --> 00:33:10,479
Speaker 2: tell you that it really What it really means is

575
00:33:11,120 --> 00:33:14,719
Speaker 2: if you had taken all of your money and just

576
00:33:14,760 --> 00:33:20,280
Speaker 2: started betting your blazing five, you'd be so rich.

577
00:33:21,120 --> 00:33:26,000
Speaker 1: You know what, though, is that I still consider myself

578
00:33:26,000 --> 00:33:28,000
Speaker 1: a square, which I am because I'm not a professional,

579
00:33:28,600 --> 00:33:34,080
Speaker 1: and I still have I still have a lot of

580
00:33:34,160 --> 00:33:38,200
Speaker 1: bad picks. For instance, I had at Lana last week

581
00:33:38,280 --> 00:33:39,280
Speaker 1: as terrible.

582
00:33:39,160 --> 00:33:42,160
Speaker 2: To but everyone did like that wasn't terrible, that was

583
00:33:42,320 --> 00:33:46,200
Speaker 2: just the right side. And at the look, it's so funny.

584
00:33:46,320 --> 00:33:48,640
Speaker 2: We did this contest for the favorites for my podcast,

585
00:33:48,680 --> 00:33:51,400
Speaker 2: in which we had twelve thousand people sign up, and

586
00:33:52,240 --> 00:33:55,479
Speaker 2: we gave away one hundred and twenty thousand dollars in

587
00:33:55,640 --> 00:33:58,600
Speaker 2: prize money, and there was a season long pick them

588
00:33:58,600 --> 00:34:01,800
Speaker 2: contest to pick five games against it spread every single week,

589
00:34:02,280 --> 00:34:05,840
Speaker 2: and top place got forty thousand dollars, second place got ten,

590
00:34:06,440 --> 00:34:08,759
Speaker 2: third place got five, and then we had week to

591
00:34:08,800 --> 00:34:12,600
Speaker 2: week we were giving away money, right, so first place

592
00:34:13,080 --> 00:34:18,360
Speaker 2: forty thousand dollars. He made a commitment to himself that

593
00:34:18,520 --> 00:34:22,759
Speaker 2: no matter what happened in the last week, as right

594
00:34:22,840 --> 00:34:24,880
Speaker 2: as the side was, as good as the number was,

595
00:34:25,360 --> 00:34:27,680
Speaker 2: he was not going to bet Carolina. He was not

596
00:34:27,760 --> 00:34:30,080
Speaker 2: going to bet Atlanta. He said to himself, I Am

597
00:34:30,120 --> 00:34:34,000
Speaker 2: not losing forty thousand dollars on the Carolina Panthers and

598
00:34:34,080 --> 00:34:36,239
Speaker 2: the Atlanta Falcons. And the guys who came in second

599
00:34:36,280 --> 00:34:39,279
Speaker 2: and third, they both had the Atlanta Falcons and the

600
00:34:39,320 --> 00:34:43,480
Speaker 2: Carolina Panthers. So you're not wrong, but sometimes it's just

601
00:34:43,480 --> 00:34:43,879
Speaker 2: not right.

602
00:34:44,280 --> 00:34:51,160
Speaker 1: Good see anybody, anybody the volume, Hi, folks. Game Time

603
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