1 00:00:02,759 --> 00:00:05,480 Speaker 1: There are five thousand, five hundred and forty one entrance 2 00:00:05,519 --> 00:00:08,720 Speaker 1: in this year's Games, a near record as the hostation 3 00:00:08,840 --> 00:00:12,480 Speaker 1: the Japanese enter last The Japanese have spent two billion 4 00:00:12,480 --> 00:00:15,800 Speaker 1: dollars to welcome their guests and other taxpayers can play 5 00:00:16,200 --> 00:00:27,280 Speaker 1: out laugh, Hello, and welcome to Stephanomics, the podcast that 6 00:00:27,320 --> 00:00:31,680 Speaker 1: brings the economy to you. Fifty seven years ago, Japan 7 00:00:31,920 --> 00:00:35,160 Speaker 1: was bursting with pride to be hosting the Olympic Games. 8 00:00:35,680 --> 00:00:38,720 Speaker 1: Now of the country wants them to go away, but 9 00:00:38,840 --> 00:00:42,120 Speaker 1: the government can't bear the thought of canceling because it 10 00:00:42,159 --> 00:00:45,760 Speaker 1: feels like an admission that they haven't beaten COVID nineteen. 11 00:00:46,560 --> 00:00:50,599 Speaker 1: This week, our Tokyo based economy reporter Yuko Takeo, has 12 00:00:50,640 --> 00:00:53,360 Speaker 1: a great piece for you, delving into the economics and 13 00:00:53,400 --> 00:00:58,080 Speaker 1: the politics of Tokyo one. Later on, I'll be asking 14 00:00:58,080 --> 00:01:01,680 Speaker 1: our France economy reporter will Horror been about that landmark 15 00:01:01,760 --> 00:01:04,920 Speaker 1: agreement which the G seven countries have supposedly reached to 16 00:01:05,080 --> 00:01:09,479 Speaker 1: extract more tax supposedly out of big multinationals. At the end, 17 00:01:09,959 --> 00:01:12,039 Speaker 1: I'm also going to play you part of a conversation 18 00:01:12,120 --> 00:01:16,040 Speaker 1: about the work from Home revolution with Stanford University professor 19 00:01:16,120 --> 00:01:20,200 Speaker 1: Nicholas Blue. He says it could worsen inequality in the workplace, 20 00:01:20,600 --> 00:01:24,480 Speaker 1: even as it also makes downtown apartments a bit more affordable. 21 00:01:25,040 --> 00:01:27,960 Speaker 1: So plenty to come, but first let's go to Tokyo. 22 00:01:45,760 --> 00:01:48,920 Speaker 1: This is a sound that the International Olympic Committee wants 23 00:01:48,920 --> 00:01:52,320 Speaker 1: you to hear over and over again. It's the theme 24 00:01:52,440 --> 00:01:55,440 Speaker 1: music that would play when athletes at the Tokyo Olympics 25 00:01:55,440 --> 00:01:59,720 Speaker 1: pick up their medals if the games go ahead, as 26 00:01:59,720 --> 00:02:06,120 Speaker 1: did he, I feel I can already hear the footsteps 27 00:02:06,160 --> 00:02:10,440 Speaker 1: of athletes making their way to Tokyo from overseas. There 28 00:02:10,480 --> 00:02:13,920 Speaker 1: are people asking why we're holding the Olympic and Paralympic 29 00:02:14,000 --> 00:02:17,120 Speaker 1: Games at a time like this, But I believe it's 30 00:02:17,160 --> 00:02:20,600 Speaker 1: precisely because we're in these difficult times that we should 31 00:02:20,600 --> 00:02:27,840 Speaker 1: hold the games. That's Japan's Olympic Minister say Ko Hashimoto, 32 00:02:28,000 --> 00:02:31,840 Speaker 1: who herself has competed in seven Games, first as a 33 00:02:31,880 --> 00:02:35,880 Speaker 1: speed skater, then as a cyclist. I was listening to 34 00:02:35,880 --> 00:02:39,040 Speaker 1: her speak in Ariak Arena in Tokyo Bay, one of 35 00:02:39,160 --> 00:02:42,680 Speaker 1: eight bleaming new venues built for the Games. She was, 36 00:02:42,720 --> 00:02:46,600 Speaker 1: therefore the unveiling of the award ceremony anthem. The medals 37 00:02:46,639 --> 00:02:51,720 Speaker 1: podium and the medal's trade, each item demonstrating Japan's tirelest 38 00:02:51,760 --> 00:02:55,840 Speaker 1: attention to detail and its government's dogged determination to press 39 00:02:55,840 --> 00:03:09,679 Speaker 1: ahead with the Games, come what may. It wasn't meant 40 00:03:09,680 --> 00:03:15,480 Speaker 1: to be this way. The International Olympic Committee as the 41 00:03:15,560 --> 00:03:18,400 Speaker 1: honor of announcing that the Games of the thirty second 42 00:03:18,440 --> 00:03:31,600 Speaker 1: Olympias in are awarded to the city of Tokyo. As 43 00:03:31,639 --> 00:03:35,440 Speaker 1: it was in four when the first Tokyo Olympics became 44 00:03:35,480 --> 00:03:39,120 Speaker 1: a springboard for Japan's emergence as a major manufacturing power, 45 00:03:39,960 --> 00:03:43,920 Speaker 1: the Games were expected to give the economy a helping hand. 46 00:03:44,960 --> 00:03:48,960 Speaker 1: A country battered by a massive earthquake, tsunami, and nuclear 47 00:03:49,000 --> 00:03:54,080 Speaker 1: disaster would use the event to drive its recovery. The 48 00:03:54,120 --> 00:03:57,720 Speaker 1: Olympics would also help the country attract forty million visitors 49 00:03:57,760 --> 00:04:02,800 Speaker 1: per year. That inbound tourism would help sustain shops, hotels, 50 00:04:02,920 --> 00:04:06,520 Speaker 1: and travel throughout Japan, or given the regions a boost 51 00:04:06,640 --> 00:04:09,040 Speaker 1: as they struggle with the effects of a declining and 52 00:04:09,240 --> 00:04:14,080 Speaker 1: aging population. June Cito, an economist at the Japan Center 53 00:04:14,120 --> 00:04:18,080 Speaker 1: for Economic Research, believes that Japan needs to attract more 54 00:04:18,160 --> 00:04:21,880 Speaker 1: foreigners over the longer term, both for the tourism sector 55 00:04:22,240 --> 00:04:26,280 Speaker 1: and make up for labor shortages in a declining, graying population. 56 00:04:28,480 --> 00:04:34,480 Speaker 1: Man trying to boost the economy by linking the goal 57 00:04:34,560 --> 00:04:37,360 Speaker 1: of forty million visitors to the Olympics wasn't at all 58 00:04:37,440 --> 00:04:41,039 Speaker 1: unreasonable looking at the momentum before the pandemic. All of 59 00:04:41,080 --> 00:04:43,680 Speaker 1: this is connected with what kind of legacy you're looking 60 00:04:43,680 --> 00:04:51,120 Speaker 1: to get from the Olympics. Still, the Games were never 61 00:04:51,160 --> 00:04:54,560 Speaker 1: expected to compete with the economic punching power of the 62 00:04:54,720 --> 00:04:59,400 Speaker 1: ninety four Olympics. Those games marked Japan's return to the 63 00:04:59,440 --> 00:05:02,640 Speaker 1: international on stage from the destruction of the World War. 64 00:05:03,839 --> 00:05:08,080 Speaker 1: A massive spending blitz built key parts of the capital's infrastructure, 65 00:05:08,480 --> 00:05:12,240 Speaker 1: including its bullet trains and the elevated highways that give 66 00:05:12,279 --> 00:05:17,520 Speaker 1: Tokyo it's blade runner look. That ambitious national project also 67 00:05:17,600 --> 00:05:20,760 Speaker 1: got Japan hooked on the concept of the debt financing 68 00:05:20,880 --> 00:05:25,440 Speaker 1: government bond. In the decades since then, that addiction has 69 00:05:25,560 --> 00:05:29,080 Speaker 1: left the country with the developed world's heaviest public debtload. 70 00:05:33,000 --> 00:05:46,280 Speaker 1: I'm gonna taking me out of capital green. I you 71 00:05:46,480 --> 00:05:53,680 Speaker 1: donder that's weightlifter setting a new world record defend off 72 00:05:53,800 --> 00:05:58,000 Speaker 1: US challenger Isaac Berger. And when Japan's first gold medal 73 00:05:58,240 --> 00:06:02,520 Speaker 1: at the nineteen sixty four Games. Now A sprightly eighty 74 00:06:02,600 --> 00:06:06,560 Speaker 1: one year old Miak recalls the mood, hinting that the 75 00:06:06,600 --> 00:06:09,599 Speaker 1: public may still rally round in support of the games. 76 00:06:10,640 --> 00:06:19,040 Speaker 1: You many sins over in Japan lost the war and 77 00:06:19,240 --> 00:06:22,800 Speaker 1: it was trying to recover. The Olympics came around in 78 00:06:22,920 --> 00:06:26,719 Speaker 1: nineteen sixty four and everyone was intent on making it 79 00:06:26,920 --> 00:06:30,760 Speaker 1: a success. It wasn't quite like that at first, but 80 00:06:31,240 --> 00:06:35,799 Speaker 1: as the Olympic came closer and closer, everyone started frying 81 00:06:35,920 --> 00:06:39,800 Speaker 1: the Olympic caras. By the time the game as it started, 82 00:06:40,160 --> 00:06:50,359 Speaker 1: the entire country was duped up in moment. Today coaches 83 00:06:50,400 --> 00:06:55,159 Speaker 1: the Tokyo International University weightlifting team. When I entered the 84 00:06:55,160 --> 00:06:58,159 Speaker 1: training room with him, dozens of young men and women 85 00:06:58,320 --> 00:07:01,520 Speaker 1: line up to offer greetings the back to the Olympic legend. 86 00:07:05,680 --> 00:07:09,000 Speaker 1: The room of sweat and toil fills the air. As 87 00:07:09,040 --> 00:07:12,320 Speaker 1: the students return to training. My ears are pounded by 88 00:07:12,360 --> 00:07:15,280 Speaker 1: their pries and shouts and the sound of multi colored 89 00:07:15,280 --> 00:07:19,800 Speaker 1: weights crashing into the ground. Among those pumping iron is 90 00:07:19,840 --> 00:07:23,920 Speaker 1: twenty four year old Massacuro Miyamoto. He has one member 91 00:07:23,960 --> 00:07:26,480 Speaker 1: of the team who's highly likely to qualify for the 92 00:07:26,480 --> 00:07:30,560 Speaker 1: Olympics this year. Like he's feeling uneasy over the page 93 00:07:30,560 --> 00:07:38,000 Speaker 1: of the Games. Well, I've been thinking about the Olympics 94 00:07:38,160 --> 00:07:40,880 Speaker 1: as long as I've been involved in sport, and I've 95 00:07:41,000 --> 00:07:43,600 Speaker 1: always want to be a part of it. If the 96 00:07:43,720 --> 00:07:48,000 Speaker 1: Games get canceled now, then everything I've dedicated myself to 97 00:07:48,440 --> 00:07:58,360 Speaker 1: who have been for nothing. It's not only some athletes 98 00:07:58,400 --> 00:08:01,680 Speaker 1: who are hoping the Games will go. For Prime Minister 99 00:08:01,760 --> 00:08:05,800 Speaker 1: Yoshihida Sugar, staging the Olympics could be a prerequisite for 100 00:08:05,840 --> 00:08:11,040 Speaker 1: holding onto the pattern as Japan's leader. Eugi Zaka, an 101 00:08:11,080 --> 00:08:15,360 Speaker 1: academic at Narrow Women's University, has spent his career researching 102 00:08:15,440 --> 00:08:19,920 Speaker 1: the Olympics. He says that for Japan's leaders, there's no 103 00:08:20,000 --> 00:08:24,720 Speaker 1: political upside from a cancelation, even with public opinion against 104 00:08:24,720 --> 00:08:28,920 Speaker 1: holding the games. Because the scrapped Olympics would symbolize the 105 00:08:28,960 --> 00:08:37,240 Speaker 1: government's failure to contain COVID nineteen, Staging the Olympics is 106 00:08:37,320 --> 00:08:41,360 Speaker 1: tantamount to having the virus under control. Together with getting 107 00:08:41,360 --> 00:08:44,800 Speaker 1: the vaccines distributed faster, this could end up being a 108 00:08:44,840 --> 00:08:48,600 Speaker 1: plus point for the administration. Holding the Olympics has in 109 00:08:48,640 --> 00:08:51,600 Speaker 1: a sense become a lifeline for the government, and that's 110 00:08:51,600 --> 00:08:59,920 Speaker 1: why they can't cancel that ditching the Games would all 111 00:09:00,040 --> 00:09:02,800 Speaker 1: to be bad for an economy that's already teetering on 112 00:09:02,840 --> 00:09:06,479 Speaker 1: the brink of a double deprocession on the emergency restrictions, 113 00:09:07,520 --> 00:09:12,160 Speaker 1: But staging the Games comes with obvious risks too. Bringing 114 00:09:12,240 --> 00:09:15,400 Speaker 1: seventy eight thousand people to Japan from around the world 115 00:09:15,840 --> 00:09:19,640 Speaker 1: could turn the Games into a super spread event that 116 00:09:19,720 --> 00:09:22,800 Speaker 1: could have a greater cost for the economy in addition 117 00:09:22,840 --> 00:09:26,720 Speaker 1: to the human consequences. One reason why many corporate leaders 118 00:09:26,760 --> 00:09:32,160 Speaker 1: have joined medical professionals in calling for a cancelation. With 119 00:09:32,360 --> 00:09:36,120 Speaker 1: little more than six weeks ago, the national consensus in 120 00:09:36,160 --> 00:09:40,400 Speaker 1: favor of the games lies in pieces chattered by the pandemic. 121 00:09:41,679 --> 00:09:46,920 Speaker 1: Even Mia, our gold medal hero from four acknowledges that 122 00:09:47,000 --> 00:09:50,960 Speaker 1: a late surge of support has yet to arrive. For 123 00:09:51,120 --> 00:09:59,960 Speaker 1: what you can do compre how people feel. But the people, 124 00:10:00,000 --> 00:10:04,920 Speaker 1: our citizens, even my friends and really in that one 125 00:10:04,920 --> 00:10:10,160 Speaker 1: in big commodity. Yet I do say as that they 126 00:10:10,240 --> 00:10:22,480 Speaker 1: talk yoga, coredent's, they talk your clus Now there's a 127 00:10:22,520 --> 00:10:25,439 Speaker 1: nerdy topic which we've come back to a few times 128 00:10:25,520 --> 00:10:29,000 Speaker 1: on this podcast, that actually made it to prime time 129 00:10:29,040 --> 00:10:32,320 Speaker 1: news this weekend when G seven finance ministers agreed on 130 00:10:32,360 --> 00:10:35,160 Speaker 1: a deal to charge a global minimum tax on the 131 00:10:35,160 --> 00:10:38,200 Speaker 1: profits of big companies, so I think it's it's only fair. 132 00:10:38,200 --> 00:10:40,720 Speaker 1: We get the low down on this from Bloomberg's France 133 00:10:40,760 --> 00:10:44,439 Speaker 1: economy reporter William Horribin, who has been dutifully following this 134 00:10:44,559 --> 00:10:47,680 Speaker 1: story from the beginning. Will and then we have we 135 00:10:47,679 --> 00:10:49,760 Speaker 1: have a few other things to talk about today. But 136 00:10:49,880 --> 00:10:51,680 Speaker 1: let me ask you about all the headlines that we 137 00:10:51,720 --> 00:10:57,360 Speaker 1: saw at the weekend tax on on these big global companies. 138 00:10:57,559 --> 00:11:02,000 Speaker 1: Does that mean that companies like Google aren't going to 139 00:11:02,040 --> 00:11:04,120 Speaker 1: be able to do all these kind of fancy avoidance 140 00:11:04,160 --> 00:11:07,800 Speaker 1: operations anymore and end up paying no tax anywhere? I 141 00:11:07,840 --> 00:11:11,880 Speaker 1: guess the short answer is yes, they're not going to 142 00:11:11,920 --> 00:11:14,800 Speaker 1: be They're not going to be able to do those 143 00:11:15,040 --> 00:11:19,640 Speaker 1: things anymore. Um. But what was really significant about what 144 00:11:19,640 --> 00:11:22,320 Speaker 1: happened happened at the G seven was in some ways 145 00:11:22,360 --> 00:11:26,160 Speaker 1: more political than technical. There is there's some detail in 146 00:11:26,200 --> 00:11:29,720 Speaker 1: the in the final communicator that they've put down on paper, um, 147 00:11:29,760 --> 00:11:32,520 Speaker 1: But what it actually happened is that they've resolved a 148 00:11:32,559 --> 00:11:36,200 Speaker 1: major divide between Europe and the US on who gets 149 00:11:36,280 --> 00:11:39,160 Speaker 1: to tax the multinationals, how we share out the spoils 150 00:11:39,280 --> 00:11:43,559 Speaker 1: of globalization if you like. Um, and if we remember 151 00:11:43,640 --> 00:11:46,720 Speaker 1: that Trump always used to say his stance was America, 152 00:11:47,360 --> 00:11:52,480 Speaker 1: America taxes it's companies, not anyone else. And europe response 153 00:11:52,600 --> 00:11:54,640 Speaker 1: was like, how on a second. These are huge up, 154 00:11:54,679 --> 00:11:57,000 Speaker 1: they have huge operations in our country. They're relying on 155 00:11:57,000 --> 00:12:01,120 Speaker 1: our infrastructure, our people. Um, but they're not paying any 156 00:12:01,120 --> 00:12:03,079 Speaker 1: tax here and we want a slice of that pie. 157 00:12:03,720 --> 00:12:06,120 Speaker 1: So what happens at the G seven this weekend is 158 00:12:06,240 --> 00:12:10,319 Speaker 1: that everyone sort of recognizes, Okay, these multinationals, they need 159 00:12:10,360 --> 00:12:13,120 Speaker 1: to pay more in the places where more of the 160 00:12:13,160 --> 00:12:15,640 Speaker 1: tax that they do already pay in the places where 161 00:12:15,640 --> 00:12:19,480 Speaker 1: they're actually doing business. Um. So the home countries, if say, 162 00:12:19,640 --> 00:12:22,880 Speaker 1: for Google, for the US, need to share out some 163 00:12:22,920 --> 00:12:26,160 Speaker 1: of the rights to tax the profits of Google. And 164 00:12:26,200 --> 00:12:29,120 Speaker 1: it's worth pausing for a second there, because what they 165 00:12:29,120 --> 00:12:32,640 Speaker 1: have essentially agreed to is to let other governments tax 166 00:12:32,760 --> 00:12:38,120 Speaker 1: their companies instead of them. And conceptually, even even materially, 167 00:12:38,160 --> 00:12:40,480 Speaker 1: this may not be huge, but conceptually that's a that's 168 00:12:40,480 --> 00:12:43,920 Speaker 1: a huge breakthrough. And for the purpose of these years 169 00:12:43,960 --> 00:12:47,160 Speaker 1: long negotiations that have been happening at the o c 170 00:12:47,240 --> 00:12:49,280 Speaker 1: D is also key. You know, people at the o 171 00:12:49,400 --> 00:12:52,360 Speaker 1: c D always said, we're doing all this technical work 172 00:12:52,400 --> 00:12:54,720 Speaker 1: on lots of the nitty gritty of how to rewrite 173 00:12:54,720 --> 00:12:58,560 Speaker 1: tax legislation around the world, But what really, what really 174 00:12:58,880 --> 00:13:02,080 Speaker 1: has blocked us is this agreement on this willingness to 175 00:13:02,120 --> 00:13:05,360 Speaker 1: share out right to tax companies. And once that's resolved, 176 00:13:05,440 --> 00:13:08,400 Speaker 1: they've always said, the rest will just flow from that. 177 00:13:08,760 --> 00:13:10,640 Speaker 1: On the face of it, it seems surprising that the 178 00:13:10,720 --> 00:13:13,440 Speaker 1: US would be willing to give up that right. They've 179 00:13:13,440 --> 00:13:18,079 Speaker 1: produced this big, these big, successful global companies. Surely you want, 180 00:13:18,559 --> 00:13:20,360 Speaker 1: if you're the US, you want to keep as many 181 00:13:20,360 --> 00:13:23,720 Speaker 1: of those tax revenues to yourself as you can. Well, 182 00:13:23,760 --> 00:13:27,120 Speaker 1: there's there's various elements to how to respond to that, 183 00:13:27,160 --> 00:13:30,839 Speaker 1: and why the US has shifted, the simplest way of 184 00:13:30,880 --> 00:13:33,360 Speaker 1: putting it is that they've realized that if they want 185 00:13:33,360 --> 00:13:36,960 Speaker 1: to get what they want, they've they've got to cooperate, 186 00:13:37,000 --> 00:13:39,400 Speaker 1: and we've got to have a system that is stable 187 00:13:39,600 --> 00:13:42,559 Speaker 1: to some extent, rather than lots of people threatening each 188 00:13:42,559 --> 00:13:46,600 Speaker 1: other with tariffs or putting in place taxes on the 189 00:13:46,640 --> 00:13:51,120 Speaker 1: revenue of American companies all around the world. Um. So 190 00:13:51,240 --> 00:13:54,920 Speaker 1: it's that sort of this moment that you realize, you know, 191 00:13:54,960 --> 00:13:58,079 Speaker 1: these countries all countries around the world perhaps have been 192 00:13:58,120 --> 00:14:01,880 Speaker 1: competing on the basis of tax, and in some ways, 193 00:14:01,960 --> 00:14:05,000 Speaker 1: you know, they've decided actually with probably in our interesting 194 00:14:05,040 --> 00:14:07,880 Speaker 1: we become more of a cartel and so then we 195 00:14:07,920 --> 00:14:10,080 Speaker 1: can start getting what we want. And what the US 196 00:14:10,120 --> 00:14:13,400 Speaker 1: really wants is the minimum tax part of this deal, 197 00:14:14,080 --> 00:14:16,720 Speaker 1: so that companies are not sort of going off to 198 00:14:16,760 --> 00:14:21,040 Speaker 1: tax havents and that they can make sure that they 199 00:14:21,120 --> 00:14:24,520 Speaker 1: pay their fair share, and that the US isn't isn't 200 00:14:24,560 --> 00:14:27,240 Speaker 1: losing tax revenues all around the world. And that's that's 201 00:14:27,360 --> 00:14:30,040 Speaker 1: that's that minimum tax part of the deal is really 202 00:14:30,120 --> 00:14:32,960 Speaker 1: that is read the thing that rather than sharing out 203 00:14:32,960 --> 00:14:34,760 Speaker 1: the pie differently, it's a question of making a much 204 00:14:34,800 --> 00:14:38,400 Speaker 1: bigger pie for government to be able to fund all 205 00:14:38,400 --> 00:14:40,080 Speaker 1: the spending that they need to do in the wake 206 00:14:40,120 --> 00:14:42,960 Speaker 1: of the COVID pandemic. And I noticed, and we can't 207 00:14:42,960 --> 00:14:44,800 Speaker 1: afford too much time on this, but I noticed that 208 00:14:44,840 --> 00:14:46,440 Speaker 1: there had been this sticking point and it had come 209 00:14:46,520 --> 00:14:48,520 Speaker 1: up the last time I spoke to you. Around Amazon, 210 00:14:48,680 --> 00:14:51,600 Speaker 1: there's been a lot of focus on which are the 211 00:14:51,680 --> 00:14:56,440 Speaker 1: companies that will have this sort of sharing of revenues 212 00:14:56,440 --> 00:14:58,600 Speaker 1: across countries was going to be just the big companies 213 00:14:58,640 --> 00:15:01,600 Speaker 1: that have lots of profit. An Amazon, it's that frustrating 214 00:15:01,640 --> 00:15:04,520 Speaker 1: thing that although it sells an enormous amount in every country, 215 00:15:04,760 --> 00:15:07,280 Speaker 1: it seems to have quite a low profit margin. So 216 00:15:07,320 --> 00:15:11,160 Speaker 1: what's going to happen specifically with Amazon. Well, yeah, as 217 00:15:11,280 --> 00:15:14,560 Speaker 1: as you say the Amazon, it would be it would 218 00:15:14,560 --> 00:15:17,320 Speaker 1: be sort of crazy to create a global tax system 219 00:15:17,360 --> 00:15:19,680 Speaker 1: and then say, oh, by the way, Amazon isn't part 220 00:15:19,680 --> 00:15:22,520 Speaker 1: of this. It just wouldn't make any sense to people 221 00:15:22,560 --> 00:15:27,120 Speaker 1: who are pushing for such a change of the system. 222 00:15:27,280 --> 00:15:30,520 Speaker 1: So what they've got to do is find a way, 223 00:15:30,600 --> 00:15:32,440 Speaker 1: and they're still working on this, is find a way 224 00:15:32,440 --> 00:15:35,640 Speaker 1: of hitting a target without aiming for it. So they've 225 00:15:35,640 --> 00:15:39,680 Speaker 1: got to they've got to score a goal. An Amazon tax. Yeah, 226 00:15:39,680 --> 00:15:42,520 Speaker 1: they can't call it Amazon tax because otherwise that opens 227 00:15:42,600 --> 00:15:46,480 Speaker 1: up all the problems about taxing digital companies or targeting 228 00:15:46,520 --> 00:15:50,080 Speaker 1: certain things. So they're working on a way of of 229 00:15:50,360 --> 00:15:55,080 Speaker 1: potentially chopping up conceptually Amazon operations so that they can 230 00:15:55,400 --> 00:15:57,440 Speaker 1: find bits that are really profitable and say, right, we 231 00:15:57,440 --> 00:15:59,680 Speaker 1: can share out some of that profit for taxing purposes. 232 00:16:00,040 --> 00:16:04,040 Speaker 1: It's technically tricky because you open a can of worms 233 00:16:04,160 --> 00:16:13,560 Speaker 1: that they thought they had closed. We have these G sevens. 234 00:16:13,640 --> 00:16:16,400 Speaker 1: I always wondered why G seven still existed once they 235 00:16:16,440 --> 00:16:18,640 Speaker 1: created the G twenty, because the G seven is quite 236 00:16:18,680 --> 00:16:20,680 Speaker 1: a sort of old fashioned group of companies. We've got 237 00:16:20,680 --> 00:16:23,280 Speaker 1: the big the Heads of Government summit coming in Cornwall 238 00:16:23,280 --> 00:16:27,200 Speaker 1: this weekend, but when you look at the countries around 239 00:16:27,200 --> 00:16:30,400 Speaker 1: the table, it's it's most of the sort of new 240 00:16:30,440 --> 00:16:34,960 Speaker 1: world is not represented. Obviously, they can't just carve up 241 00:16:35,000 --> 00:16:37,320 Speaker 1: all these text revenues just for themselves. It's just not 242 00:16:37,320 --> 00:16:39,080 Speaker 1: not a very good look. So how is this going 243 00:16:39,160 --> 00:16:41,760 Speaker 1: to get sold to the rest of the world. How 244 00:16:41,800 --> 00:16:43,200 Speaker 1: are we going to how is it going to get 245 00:16:43,200 --> 00:16:48,840 Speaker 1: more sort of global buying. I think that the point 246 00:16:48,880 --> 00:16:51,880 Speaker 1: we made right the start that actually what's happened at 247 00:16:51,880 --> 00:16:56,600 Speaker 1: the G seven they resolved disagreement between the US and Europe, 248 00:16:56,880 --> 00:17:00,760 Speaker 1: and so once that's done, they the rest of what 249 00:17:01,000 --> 00:17:04,040 Speaker 1: is agreed at the G seven is actually leaves a 250 00:17:04,080 --> 00:17:06,600 Speaker 1: considered all amount of margin for everyone else to start 251 00:17:06,640 --> 00:17:08,920 Speaker 1: working on how to resolve how to find solutions to 252 00:17:09,200 --> 00:17:11,600 Speaker 1: their problems with this deal. The key really is that 253 00:17:11,720 --> 00:17:15,200 Speaker 1: G seven has lifted a problem that it had within itself, 254 00:17:15,480 --> 00:17:17,720 Speaker 1: and so now we can get down to really working 255 00:17:17,760 --> 00:17:22,800 Speaker 1: on all the exceedingly complicated issues that flow from and 256 00:17:23,280 --> 00:17:25,119 Speaker 1: I noticed there's some of the issues that have to 257 00:17:25,160 --> 00:17:27,880 Speaker 1: be resolved pretty big, like how do you define profits? 258 00:17:28,000 --> 00:17:29,840 Speaker 1: I mean that seems to be there'll be a lot 259 00:17:29,880 --> 00:17:32,480 Speaker 1: of accountants waiting to hear how they define so that 260 00:17:32,560 --> 00:17:36,399 Speaker 1: they can quickly find a way around it. Yeah, yeah, absolutely. Well, 261 00:17:36,640 --> 00:17:38,439 Speaker 1: the reassuring thing is that the O a CD has 262 00:17:38,480 --> 00:17:40,760 Speaker 1: been working on all these things for years, right, so 263 00:17:40,880 --> 00:17:42,560 Speaker 1: they've they've got it all sort of lined up to 264 00:17:42,640 --> 00:17:45,040 Speaker 1: go and they but it doesn't mean it's not complicated. 265 00:17:45,119 --> 00:17:47,560 Speaker 1: But a lot of their work has already been done. 266 00:17:48,200 --> 00:17:50,720 Speaker 1: And also there's a sort of there's a big global 267 00:17:51,280 --> 00:17:55,280 Speaker 1: shift going on, and that is that actually everyone wants 268 00:17:55,320 --> 00:17:58,159 Speaker 1: a deal, even even the big tech firms. Right. What 269 00:17:58,320 --> 00:18:00,199 Speaker 1: they want is some kind of stable mechanis and they 270 00:18:00,240 --> 00:18:03,040 Speaker 1: don't want to be hit by tariffs or or very 271 00:18:03,280 --> 00:18:07,560 Speaker 1: unilateral punitive taxes and different countries. And they think they 272 00:18:07,600 --> 00:18:11,800 Speaker 1: also recognize and from from a more political perspective, all 273 00:18:11,880 --> 00:18:14,040 Speaker 1: the governments realize that they have to make this work 274 00:18:14,119 --> 00:18:16,320 Speaker 1: because they're at the point where they they need to 275 00:18:16,480 --> 00:18:18,360 Speaker 1: end the race at the bottom because they don't want 276 00:18:18,440 --> 00:18:20,600 Speaker 1: to they need the money. They need money to be 277 00:18:20,600 --> 00:18:23,880 Speaker 1: able to invest in their economies. But also they want 278 00:18:23,920 --> 00:18:26,440 Speaker 1: to be able to sell the notion of globalization to 279 00:18:27,160 --> 00:18:30,600 Speaker 1: the middle classes and and and show that they are 280 00:18:30,840 --> 00:18:34,119 Speaker 1: taking back power from from the winners of globalization. And 281 00:18:34,280 --> 00:18:35,840 Speaker 1: to do that they've got to they've got to make 282 00:18:35,880 --> 00:18:38,000 Speaker 1: this work and keep the keep the accountants at bay, 283 00:18:38,040 --> 00:18:40,200 Speaker 1: if you like. So. I can't help thinking that we 284 00:18:40,240 --> 00:18:41,760 Speaker 1: will be returning to you at some point in the 285 00:18:41,840 --> 00:18:44,320 Speaker 1: next few months for the next exciting installment of the 286 00:18:44,680 --> 00:18:47,960 Speaker 1: definition of global profit for the corporate minimum tax. But 287 00:18:48,080 --> 00:18:50,000 Speaker 1: it is actually as you suggest, there's a lot of 288 00:18:50,080 --> 00:18:53,520 Speaker 1: money involved. It's quite an important point of principle about 289 00:18:53,560 --> 00:18:57,359 Speaker 1: whether you can make the global economy work work better. 290 00:18:57,760 --> 00:19:00,640 Speaker 1: Will horrorb and thank you very much, Thank you, Sephanie. 291 00:19:00,680 --> 00:19:09,320 Speaker 1: Thanks now. If you think of all the changes called 292 00:19:09,400 --> 00:19:11,640 Speaker 1: by the pandemic, one that does seem to be here 293 00:19:11,680 --> 00:19:15,320 Speaker 1: to stay is working from home. Companies such as Vanguard 294 00:19:15,400 --> 00:19:18,840 Speaker 1: Group and Ford Motor Company are permanently adopting what they 295 00:19:18,920 --> 00:19:22,080 Speaker 1: call hybrid work schedules. Employee spend some of the week 296 00:19:22,119 --> 00:19:24,720 Speaker 1: at home and the rest of an office. But what's 297 00:19:24,720 --> 00:19:26,840 Speaker 1: it going to mean for the rest of the economy? 298 00:19:27,280 --> 00:19:30,960 Speaker 1: While Stanford University economist Nicholas Blue has been researching the 299 00:19:31,040 --> 00:19:34,600 Speaker 1: impact of remote working for years, sin since COVID hit, 300 00:19:34,920 --> 00:19:37,960 Speaker 1: he's become the go to expert on working from home. 301 00:19:38,680 --> 00:19:42,440 Speaker 1: He's also co director of the Productivity, Innovation and Entrepreneurship 302 00:19:42,560 --> 00:19:45,800 Speaker 1: Program at the National Bureau of Economic Research, and he 303 00:19:45,880 --> 00:19:49,520 Speaker 1: spent the last year surveying tens of thousands of US 304 00:19:49,600 --> 00:19:53,639 Speaker 1: firms and employees, asking them about their post pandemic work arrangements. 305 00:19:54,200 --> 00:19:57,439 Speaker 1: US economy reporter Olivia Rockman went to talk to Bloom 306 00:19:57,720 --> 00:20:01,120 Speaker 1: about the results of that survey and working paper he's 307 00:20:01,160 --> 00:20:05,080 Speaker 1: just published, co author with his colleague Argent Romany. It's 308 00:20:05,119 --> 00:20:08,240 Speaker 1: pretty interesting stuff. Here's just a taste of their conversation. 309 00:20:09,280 --> 00:20:12,720 Speaker 1: It looks like the suburbs of large cities are the 310 00:20:12,880 --> 00:20:15,879 Speaker 1: hottest property markets. It's kind of odd that Central New 311 00:20:15,960 --> 00:20:19,119 Speaker 1: York has done really badly, but the suburbs of New 312 00:20:19,200 --> 00:20:22,480 Speaker 1: York had dined incredibly well. And then places further away 313 00:20:23,040 --> 00:20:25,720 Speaker 1: still like if you go to you know, very very 314 00:20:25,840 --> 00:20:30,280 Speaker 1: upstate New York. I'm thinking like Topeka, Kansas, or you know, Tulsa, Oklahoma, 315 00:20:30,400 --> 00:20:34,840 Speaker 1: or Hawaii, or you know, Mississippi or Alaska have done fine. 316 00:20:35,200 --> 00:20:37,320 Speaker 1: Because the whole U. S. Housing market is it's not 317 00:20:37,440 --> 00:20:40,800 Speaker 1: like they've exploded, so we think of this is all 318 00:20:40,920 --> 00:20:44,320 Speaker 1: due to the move to hybrid. So the vast majority 319 00:20:44,680 --> 00:20:46,960 Speaker 1: kind of sevent firms I've talked, you know, and you 320 00:20:47,000 --> 00:20:49,560 Speaker 1: see it in all the server data, I'm moving to hybrid, 321 00:20:49,640 --> 00:20:54,560 Speaker 1: whereby basically most big American firms telling people post pandemic, 322 00:20:54,640 --> 00:20:56,840 Speaker 1: when you come back, you're going to be coming back 323 00:20:56,880 --> 00:21:00,840 Speaker 1: probably three days a week typically, and if you grow 324 00:21:00,920 --> 00:21:02,320 Speaker 1: up from home two days a week, it makes it 325 00:21:02,400 --> 00:21:04,399 Speaker 1: more appealing to live out in the suburbs. It should 326 00:21:04,400 --> 00:21:06,080 Speaker 1: be clear that this is only half of people US. 327 00:21:06,119 --> 00:21:09,760 Speaker 1: Half of people, typically university grads, is going to go hybrid. 328 00:21:10,000 --> 00:21:12,720 Speaker 1: The other half but still, you know, on the business 329 00:21:12,760 --> 00:21:15,320 Speaker 1: premises every day because they're doing more physical manual jobs 330 00:21:15,359 --> 00:21:19,960 Speaker 1: than meeting customers, etcetera. UM, the richer educated half of 331 00:21:20,240 --> 00:21:23,359 Speaker 1: mostly the people buying houses. So that's why that's really 332 00:21:23,400 --> 00:21:27,680 Speaker 1: impactful for real estate. These folks are moving out. The 333 00:21:27,960 --> 00:21:30,359 Speaker 1: question as to what the long and impact will be, 334 00:21:31,600 --> 00:21:36,080 Speaker 1: I personally think it's actually maybe positive. It's not. It's 335 00:21:36,080 --> 00:21:39,760 Speaker 1: certainly not obviously negative. So to put it in context, 336 00:21:39,880 --> 00:21:43,520 Speaker 1: the center of American cities have had a forty year boom, 337 00:21:44,040 --> 00:21:47,440 Speaker 1: so from about to two thousand and nineteen they've been 338 00:21:47,480 --> 00:21:51,159 Speaker 1: on a continuous upward swing. And so what's happened is 339 00:21:51,280 --> 00:21:54,440 Speaker 1: COVID is probably unwound, maybe ten to twenty years of that, 340 00:21:54,680 --> 00:21:57,840 Speaker 1: but you know, probably no more. So you can think 341 00:21:57,880 --> 00:22:00,480 Speaker 1: of city centers relatively going to be the still worse 342 00:22:00,680 --> 00:22:04,960 Speaker 1: in two thousand and five, which is expensive, but that 343 00:22:05,119 --> 00:22:07,639 Speaker 1: gap has narrowed a little bit. You know, as an economist, 344 00:22:08,080 --> 00:22:10,080 Speaker 1: it's pretty clear the adjustment it's going to be on 345 00:22:10,160 --> 00:22:14,159 Speaker 1: many margins, maybe some bohemiums, maybe more artists will come 346 00:22:14,200 --> 00:22:16,600 Speaker 1: back from the city centers, folks that are driven out. 347 00:22:16,800 --> 00:22:21,040 Speaker 1: In fact, maybe people that need to work on the 348 00:22:21,080 --> 00:22:23,760 Speaker 1: business premises five days a week that were priced out, 349 00:22:23,840 --> 00:22:25,960 Speaker 1: but actually the very people that should be living in 350 00:22:26,000 --> 00:22:28,240 Speaker 1: the city centers for return. There was a mention in 351 00:22:28,280 --> 00:22:32,840 Speaker 1: one of your papers about promotions, and I wonder how 352 00:22:33,080 --> 00:22:36,480 Speaker 1: some of this ends up, you know, making it harder 353 00:22:36,560 --> 00:22:38,920 Speaker 1: for some people to to move up, especially let's say, 354 00:22:38,920 --> 00:22:40,760 Speaker 1: if there's a parent that decides to work from home 355 00:22:40,840 --> 00:22:44,560 Speaker 1: five days a week. Yeah, you know, I think you 356 00:22:44,640 --> 00:22:47,600 Speaker 1: know what so this this kind of to managerial decisions. 357 00:22:47,680 --> 00:22:50,800 Speaker 1: One is what to do post pandemic, and I would 358 00:22:50,840 --> 00:22:53,000 Speaker 1: say most firms have gone to hybrid, and that seems 359 00:22:53,040 --> 00:22:56,040 Speaker 1: like yesterday's decision quite frankly. So sure. But then the 360 00:22:56,080 --> 00:22:59,200 Speaker 1: big issue is on choice and do you set the 361 00:22:59,280 --> 00:23:01,240 Speaker 1: thing right at the top the firm what you said, 362 00:23:01,240 --> 00:23:03,360 Speaker 1: it right at the bottom and let people choose. I've 363 00:23:03,400 --> 00:23:05,680 Speaker 1: been against setting at the bottom because I think choice 364 00:23:05,760 --> 00:23:10,520 Speaker 1: is actually problematic for three reasons. The first to are 365 00:23:10,600 --> 00:23:12,600 Speaker 1: quick and kind of obvious. What is mixed mode doesn't 366 00:23:12,640 --> 00:23:14,960 Speaker 1: work very well. So when some people in the office 367 00:23:15,000 --> 00:23:17,000 Speaker 1: and summer our home, it just leads to a kind 368 00:23:17,040 --> 00:23:18,960 Speaker 1: of in and an outgroup. So even if evan in 369 00:23:19,000 --> 00:23:22,280 Speaker 1: the office joins meetings, you know on their own zoom screen, 370 00:23:22,359 --> 00:23:23,880 Speaker 1: you know, as soon as the meetings over, they get 371 00:23:23,960 --> 00:23:26,600 Speaker 1: up and go chat. So people are home until left out, 372 00:23:27,000 --> 00:23:30,159 Speaker 1: and that's almost impossible to deal with. There's a second 373 00:23:30,200 --> 00:23:34,119 Speaker 1: issue about if you let people choose. People say that 374 00:23:34,600 --> 00:23:37,040 Speaker 1: of their two days they work at home, it will 375 00:23:37,040 --> 00:23:40,639 Speaker 1: be a Wednesday and it will be a Friday. So 376 00:23:40,720 --> 00:23:42,359 Speaker 1: if you let people choose, you're going to find the 377 00:23:42,440 --> 00:23:45,040 Speaker 1: office crushed on the Wednesday and empty on It is 378 00:23:45,119 --> 00:23:47,760 Speaker 1: like tumbleweed blowing through on the Friday, so it's very 379 00:23:47,800 --> 00:23:51,480 Speaker 1: inefficient and office space. And then the final reason that 380 00:23:51,560 --> 00:23:54,000 Speaker 1: I'm against choice is the one you raise, which is 381 00:23:54,040 --> 00:23:56,280 Speaker 1: the most subtle, but it's maybe the most pernicials, which 382 00:23:56,440 --> 00:23:58,840 Speaker 1: is they're kind of the two facts us knowing. One 383 00:23:59,000 --> 00:24:02,320 Speaker 1: is who who would choose to work from home? In 384 00:24:02,440 --> 00:24:04,800 Speaker 1: our survey we ask people what would you how many 385 00:24:04,840 --> 00:24:06,080 Speaker 1: days a week would you like to work from home? 386 00:24:06,160 --> 00:24:09,840 Speaker 1: Post pandemic? And if you look at amongst college graduates, 387 00:24:09,880 --> 00:24:13,320 Speaker 1: which is well but over half of our workforce, and 388 00:24:13,400 --> 00:24:15,399 Speaker 1: you look at people with children under the age of twelve, 389 00:24:15,800 --> 00:24:18,760 Speaker 1: always said more women than men choose to work from 390 00:24:18,800 --> 00:24:23,120 Speaker 1: home five days a week. And yeah, that so already 391 00:24:23,240 --> 00:24:26,840 Speaker 1: amongst graduates with the young kids, there's a big gender 392 00:24:26,880 --> 00:24:29,080 Speaker 1: dividers to who would choose to work from home five 393 00:24:29,160 --> 00:24:32,320 Speaker 1: days a week. You hear it for people that disabled 394 00:24:32,359 --> 00:24:35,000 Speaker 1: people are living far out, etcetera. A group of people 395 00:24:35,400 --> 00:24:37,280 Speaker 1: who have given the choice to choose, you know, for 396 00:24:37,400 --> 00:24:40,400 Speaker 1: quite very logical and sensible reasons to work from home 397 00:24:40,440 --> 00:24:43,760 Speaker 1: more days. So that seems totally sensible. The problem is 398 00:24:43,840 --> 00:24:46,119 Speaker 1: the second factors. If you look in the data and 399 00:24:46,400 --> 00:24:48,720 Speaker 1: working from home in a team where there are other 400 00:24:48,800 --> 00:24:52,680 Speaker 1: people coming into the office is extremely costly in promotion. 401 00:24:53,080 --> 00:24:55,600 Speaker 1: So if you let people choose my theories, in some 402 00:24:55,680 --> 00:24:58,280 Speaker 1: ways the biggest cost in the long run, all the 403 00:24:58,359 --> 00:25:02,040 Speaker 1: single young men coming five days a week. College educated 404 00:25:02,119 --> 00:25:03,639 Speaker 1: women with a six year old and an eight year 405 00:25:03,640 --> 00:25:06,840 Speaker 1: old maybe come in two days a week and six 406 00:25:06,920 --> 00:25:09,080 Speaker 1: seven years down the road. There's a huge different in 407 00:25:09,240 --> 00:25:11,920 Speaker 1: promotion rates. And you know, you have a diversity crisis. 408 00:25:12,119 --> 00:25:14,280 Speaker 1: And honestly, for companies, you have it like a legal 409 00:25:14,400 --> 00:25:19,040 Speaker 1: mind field of why justifiable lawsuits. I mean, you know, 410 00:25:19,240 --> 00:25:20,720 Speaker 1: you would look at the data and you'd see lo 411 00:25:20,800 --> 00:25:23,639 Speaker 1: and behold, you've got a gender divide in promotion, a 412 00:25:23,720 --> 00:25:27,040 Speaker 1: disability divide in promotion, maybe an income divicer's wealthy people 413 00:25:27,080 --> 00:25:30,200 Speaker 1: live near you know stuff that's just the nightmare for companies. 414 00:25:30,280 --> 00:25:34,520 Speaker 1: So I have been advising that firms should probably harmonize 415 00:25:34,680 --> 00:25:37,560 Speaker 1: across the firm how many days people were from home, 416 00:25:37,920 --> 00:25:41,760 Speaker 1: and try and harmonize which days is in each team 417 00:25:42,040 --> 00:25:46,320 Speaker 1: in terms of you know, people sacrifices that they're willing 418 00:25:46,400 --> 00:25:50,320 Speaker 1: to make for flexibility. Did you did you serve anyone 419 00:25:50,359 --> 00:25:52,120 Speaker 1: about that, Like, oh, I would be willing to take 420 00:25:52,760 --> 00:25:56,000 Speaker 1: a pig cut for a hybrid model yes, so we 421 00:25:56,520 --> 00:25:58,840 Speaker 1: we've I have really good data on this, So we 422 00:25:59,200 --> 00:26:03,119 Speaker 1: servey people a parish pandemic. If you're allowed to work 423 00:26:03,160 --> 00:26:05,240 Speaker 1: from him two days a week, would that would you 424 00:26:05,359 --> 00:26:08,560 Speaker 1: be positive? Neutral? Negative? Then if you're either positive or negative, 425 00:26:08,640 --> 00:26:10,480 Speaker 1: we ask how much would that be equivalent to in 426 00:26:10,600 --> 00:26:13,080 Speaker 1: terms of your current salary? And you tell your average 427 00:26:13,080 --> 00:26:16,960 Speaker 1: across everyone and you get plus and I've done the 428 00:26:17,000 --> 00:26:18,879 Speaker 1: same seven that you catch is that they come out 429 00:26:18,880 --> 00:26:22,440 Speaker 1: there six. So basically people value being able to work 430 00:26:22,480 --> 00:26:24,560 Speaker 1: from home to two days a week at something like 431 00:26:24,680 --> 00:26:28,040 Speaker 1: six of salary. So you can think of it as 432 00:26:28,320 --> 00:26:30,720 Speaker 1: equivalent probably to a pension plan or a kind of 433 00:26:30,760 --> 00:26:33,560 Speaker 1: a mean healthcare plan. That raises why this is a 434 00:26:33,600 --> 00:26:36,960 Speaker 1: bit of an inequality issue. Another management change is only 435 00:26:37,040 --> 00:26:39,520 Speaker 1: half your employees get this, nearer half don't, and the 436 00:26:39,600 --> 00:26:42,800 Speaker 1: half they get this are typically the higher earning, better 437 00:26:42,960 --> 00:26:45,480 Speaker 1: educated half that mostly have had a better pandemics have 438 00:26:45,640 --> 00:26:53,919 Speaker 1: worked home. Well, that's it for this episode of Stephanomics. 439 00:26:54,119 --> 00:26:56,080 Speaker 1: All be back next week with a lot more from 440 00:26:56,160 --> 00:26:59,960 Speaker 1: around the world. This episode was produced by Magnus Hendrick 441 00:27:00,280 --> 00:27:03,000 Speaker 1: and the segment on the Tokyo Olympics was written by 442 00:27:03,080 --> 00:27:07,120 Speaker 1: Yuko Takeo and edited by Paul Jackson. Metic special thanks 443 00:27:07,160 --> 00:27:11,200 Speaker 1: also to William Horrabin, Olivia Rockman, and Professor Nicholas Blue. 444 00:27:11,960 --> 00:27:15,240 Speaker 1: Mike Sasso is executive producer of Stephanomics and the head 445 00:27:15,240 --> 00:27:18,520 Speaker 1: of Bluebird Podcasts is Francesco leaving h