WEBVTT - Caution, not ambition, will shape the next decade of climate action 0:00:00.200 --> 0:00:03.960 Welcome to zero I am Akshatrati. This week, we are 0:00:04.080 --> 0:00:19.160 entering a decade of climate caution. The war in the 0:00:19.160 --> 0:00:22.159 Middle East has forced countries to focus their attention on 0:00:22.200 --> 0:00:25.759 the short term. European countries are offering some subsidies to 0:00:25.840 --> 0:00:29.640 keep energy prices low. The US, under President Donald Trump, 0:00:29.720 --> 0:00:32.520 is pushing the oil industry to drill more to try 0:00:32.520 --> 0:00:36.600 to keep global oil prices from rising even further. China 0:00:36.640 --> 0:00:40.200 has halted the export of petrol and diesel, while India 0:00:40.320 --> 0:00:44.640 has engaged with Iran to secure shipments of liquefied petroleum gas. 0:00:45.200 --> 0:00:48.920 But beyond some of those immediate measures, the war hasn't 0:00:48.960 --> 0:00:52.600 stopped countries from continuing their long term planning. In the 0:00:52.640 --> 0:00:55.640 past month, we've seen two major plans from two of 0:00:55.680 --> 0:01:00.000 the world's biggest polluters. In March, China approved its fifth 0:01:00.000 --> 0:01:02.720 teenth five year Plan, which sets out the trajectory for 0:01:02.800 --> 0:01:06.160 its entire economy and gives us a clearer sense of 0:01:06.200 --> 0:01:09.880 how the government makes progress on its climate goals. Then 0:01:09.959 --> 0:01:13.000 a few weeks after that, India published its climate plan 0:01:13.080 --> 0:01:16.559 for twenty thirty five. The plan got both types of reactions, 0:01:16.880 --> 0:01:20.800 praising India's commitment to climate and criticizing it for its 0:01:20.880 --> 0:01:24.560 lack of ambition. Today, I'm joined by my colleague Lily Pike, 0:01:24.680 --> 0:01:27.840 who is Bloomberg Greens China reporter, to discuss what these 0:01:27.880 --> 0:01:31.480 plans signal for the next decade. In our conversation, we 0:01:31.520 --> 0:01:34.880 will also touch on two other major emitters, the US, 0:01:35.040 --> 0:01:38.200 where Lily used to live until last year, and Europe, 0:01:38.280 --> 0:01:46.119 where I live. Lily, Welcome to the show. 0:01:46.280 --> 0:01:49.000 Great to be here, ak Shad, I'm a longtime fan 0:01:49.040 --> 0:01:49.440 of the pod. 0:01:49.800 --> 0:01:52.040 Yeah, it's good to have you. So you're usually based 0:01:52.040 --> 0:01:54.720 in Singapore, and of course you report on China from there. 0:01:55.200 --> 0:01:58.480 But before we get to China, let's start with the 0:01:58.640 --> 0:02:02.080 US and tell me what the Trump administration has done 0:02:02.120 --> 0:02:05.800 over the past few months attacking climate policies and clean 0:02:05.920 --> 0:02:06.720 energy build out. 0:02:06.960 --> 0:02:09.320 That's right. I actually happened to be in the New 0:02:09.440 --> 0:02:12.359 York office today so I can moonlight as a US 0:02:12.440 --> 0:02:15.959 climate reporter for a bit. You know, it's always jarring 0:02:16.080 --> 0:02:19.120 coming back to the US from Asia because the energy 0:02:19.120 --> 0:02:22.040 and climate conversation is obviously so different here in the 0:02:22.120 --> 0:02:26.360 US right now. And you know, over the last year 0:02:26.840 --> 0:02:30.359 since Trump took office, we've seen a lot of rollbacks 0:02:30.400 --> 0:02:32.639 and a lot of attacks on climate and energy policy, 0:02:33.120 --> 0:02:35.200 the one that I think of first and foremost being 0:02:35.200 --> 0:02:39.240 here in New York, is the major battle over wind energy. 0:02:39.760 --> 0:02:43.160 I'm sure you're very familiar with this, but you know 0:02:43.200 --> 0:02:48.760 Trump has a particular animosity toward windmills, as he calls them, 0:02:49.000 --> 0:02:53.160 and he's been really focused on really kind of fighting 0:02:53.320 --> 0:02:57.480 wind energy projects in the US, particularly offshore wind. And 0:02:57.800 --> 0:03:00.400 just last week there was news that broke that the 0:03:00.440 --> 0:03:05.400 administration is actually going to pay total the French energy 0:03:05.400 --> 0:03:09.840 company a billion dollars for these leases that they purchased 0:03:09.840 --> 0:03:14.280 for offshore wind, so that they can then invest in 0:03:14.680 --> 0:03:17.240 natural gas development instead. So I think that kind of 0:03:17.240 --> 0:03:20.360 just highlights the extent to which the administration is anti 0:03:20.400 --> 0:03:23.160 wind and pro fossil fuels. You know, they're paying to 0:03:24.120 --> 0:03:27.760 have this company not develop wind energy. Clearly, from the 0:03:27.760 --> 0:03:32.560 administration side, it's been a very anti clean energy campaign, 0:03:32.800 --> 0:03:36.000 both on those wind projects, but also more broadly, if 0:03:36.040 --> 0:03:39.160 you look back at the tax bill, broad effort to 0:03:39.200 --> 0:03:42.480 slash the Biden era clean energy tax credits, and so 0:03:42.600 --> 0:03:45.400 that's having major long term implications for the speed of 0:03:45.400 --> 0:03:48.480 the clean energy deployment in the US versus say, China, 0:03:48.520 --> 0:03:51.640 where we've seen records every year. One of the biggest 0:03:51.640 --> 0:03:55.440 things on the climate frontier in the US has been 0:03:55.480 --> 0:03:59.240 the roll back and repeal of the so called Endangerment Finding, 0:04:00.240 --> 0:04:02.880 was the scientific finding back in two thousand and nine 0:04:03.160 --> 0:04:07.920 that allowed the EPA to set regulations on climate change 0:04:08.080 --> 0:04:10.240 and carbon emissions across the board in the US. So 0:04:10.320 --> 0:04:14.520 that has really wide ranging impacts for climate regulation going forward. 0:04:14.840 --> 0:04:17.520 And then kind of more broadly, obviously, we've just seen 0:04:17.720 --> 0:04:22.039 the US step back across the board from international institutions 0:04:23.080 --> 0:04:26.960 that includes all the main climate forums, the Paris Agreement 0:04:27.560 --> 0:04:32.560 Trump pulled out right after taking office again, and that's 0:04:32.600 --> 0:04:35.719 extended all the way to the Framework Convention on Climate Change, 0:04:35.760 --> 0:04:40.120 the unf Triple C, as well as the IPCC, the 0:04:40.160 --> 0:04:44.440 scientific body behind global climate action. And so we've really 0:04:44.480 --> 0:04:46.640 just seen a US retreat across the board. 0:04:46.720 --> 0:04:48.800 Yeah, and it's something we've talked about. We actually had 0:04:48.800 --> 0:04:51.960 the head of the IPCC on the podcast in March, 0:04:52.000 --> 0:04:55.479 so I hopelessness, we'll go back and listen. Because so 0:04:55.560 --> 0:04:59.640 much of climate science comes from the US, and if 0:04:59.680 --> 0:05:02.359 the U US government pulls out of that process, it 0:05:02.400 --> 0:05:06.400 can have pretty negative impacts for much much longer. Because 0:05:06.440 --> 0:05:10.919 these reports have so much impact on policy, but the 0:05:11.000 --> 0:05:15.000 US is only the second largest annual limitter. The biggest 0:05:15.120 --> 0:05:20.520 is China, which you cover extensively. And in the past month, 0:05:20.640 --> 0:05:26.520 we've had what would be China's defining strategy for the 0:05:26.520 --> 0:05:29.840 next five years. It's five Year Plan, a thing that 0:05:29.880 --> 0:05:33.080 it does well every five years, but it's sort of 0:05:33.480 --> 0:05:38.080 the planning document that everybody follows. So let's start there. 0:05:38.279 --> 0:05:40.839 What were the main headlines as they relate to energy 0:05:40.839 --> 0:05:41.880 and climate, so that. 0:05:41.800 --> 0:05:43.520 We have a lot to cover here. I was actually 0:05:44.000 --> 0:05:47.000 in Beijing this year for the release of the five 0:05:47.080 --> 0:05:51.599 Year Plan. Every year in Beijing there's an annual legislative 0:05:51.600 --> 0:05:53.880 meeting called the Two Sessions, and this was a special 0:05:53.960 --> 0:05:56.280 year because it was also the release of this five 0:05:56.360 --> 0:06:00.280 year Plan, which extends out to twenty thirty and so 0:06:00.360 --> 0:06:04.839 every year there's this tradition of foreign correspondents racing to 0:06:04.960 --> 0:06:08.599 get these documents before they're uploaded online to break the news. 0:06:08.720 --> 0:06:11.279 So everybody goes to the Great Hall of the People 0:06:11.600 --> 0:06:15.680 and races to get this stack of documents, which includes 0:06:16.160 --> 0:06:19.120 the five Year Plan targets. So my first read of 0:06:19.160 --> 0:06:22.080 these targets was done actually on the floor of the 0:06:22.080 --> 0:06:24.000 Great Hall of the people, they're no chairs, were just 0:06:24.720 --> 0:06:26.800 sitting on the floor scrambling to read. 0:06:27.000 --> 0:06:28.960 It's one of those things about working with the Chinese 0:06:29.000 --> 0:06:32.080 government that continues to stun me because even now, if 0:06:32.080 --> 0:06:34.760 you have to get like official comments from the government, 0:06:34.800 --> 0:06:37.000 you have to fax your questions in. 0:06:37.640 --> 0:06:42.599 It's very old school, yes, exactly. So it's a funny 0:06:42.680 --> 0:06:45.880 process to just get these paper documents and you know, 0:06:45.880 --> 0:06:49.280 we're talking about hundreds and hundreds of pages. So since 0:06:49.320 --> 0:06:51.760 then we've had some more time to digest all of 0:06:51.800 --> 0:06:55.440 these new targets and plans. But it's just worth underscoring 0:06:55.480 --> 0:06:58.280 how important the Five Year Plan processes in China. It 0:06:58.320 --> 0:07:02.680 really sets these major signals for climate, energy, the economy, 0:07:02.760 --> 0:07:06.120 or more broadly, you know, going back multiple decades now, 0:07:06.160 --> 0:07:09.320 it's been a really important way of you know, setting 0:07:09.480 --> 0:07:12.320 the guidelines for clean energy development in China and for 0:07:12.360 --> 0:07:16.920 the development of new technologies and manufacturing. So the kind 0:07:16.920 --> 0:07:21.880 of headline news out of this plan is really a 0:07:21.920 --> 0:07:26.040 balancing act that the Chinese government is doing where overall, 0:07:26.120 --> 0:07:28.600 you know, there's a statement that was included that was 0:07:29.200 --> 0:07:34.320 to continue to pursue the comprehensive green transformation of the economy, 0:07:34.800 --> 0:07:36.520 and so for you know I'm here in the US. 0:07:36.600 --> 0:07:40.240 That's a really you know, bold vision of moving from 0:07:40.400 --> 0:07:42.720 you know, this very coal based economy to a clean 0:07:42.840 --> 0:07:45.280 energy based economy, and that continues to be the direction 0:07:45.320 --> 0:07:48.520 of travel for China. And we see that all these 0:07:48.640 --> 0:07:52.000 signals in the five Year Plan on clean energy. However, 0:07:52.320 --> 0:07:54.680 you know, it's really important to look at some of 0:07:54.720 --> 0:07:57.760 the clear targets on climate change in particular which were 0:07:57.840 --> 0:08:00.920 less ambitious. And so when I wanted to highlight in particular, 0:08:01.000 --> 0:08:04.560 is this one the carbon intensity target? This is quite 0:08:04.600 --> 0:08:07.920 in the weeds, but it's really important. So this is 0:08:07.920 --> 0:08:10.120 the clearest climate target in the five year Plan. And 0:08:10.480 --> 0:08:12.720 the key thing to know is that there was a 0:08:12.720 --> 0:08:15.720 carbon intensity target set in the last five year Plan 0:08:16.000 --> 0:08:18.440 and China missed it, it seems, yeah. 0:08:18.480 --> 0:08:21.360 And it's the target where you take total emissions and 0:08:21.400 --> 0:08:25.080 then divide it by the gross domestic product of China. 0:08:25.560 --> 0:08:28.560 So that's why the intensity rather than the absolute emissions, 0:08:28.960 --> 0:08:33.480 which kind of if the economy continues growing, kind of 0:08:33.520 --> 0:08:36.800 allows China to creep growing its emissions even as the 0:08:36.840 --> 0:08:38.520 intensity might fall. 0:08:38.559 --> 0:08:42.120 That's exactly right. So it's basically, as you said, a 0:08:42.200 --> 0:08:45.400 way for China to set climate targets without having to 0:08:45.480 --> 0:08:48.760 really restrict its growth or put a hard cap on 0:08:48.800 --> 0:08:53.079 carbon emissions. And so actually China said that in this 0:08:53.080 --> 0:08:56.120 five year plan they would move toward a system where 0:08:56.120 --> 0:08:58.480 they would do what's called a dual control system, which 0:08:58.520 --> 0:09:01.240 is both that intensity target but also setting a firm 0:09:01.320 --> 0:09:04.960 cap on emissions. So going into this new five year plan, 0:09:04.960 --> 0:09:07.000 we were hoping we would see that kind of clear 0:09:08.040 --> 0:09:10.480 cap on emissions, and we did not get that. What 0:09:10.520 --> 0:09:13.720 we got was a new twenty thirty carbon intensity target 0:09:13.880 --> 0:09:19.040 to reduce carbon intensity by seventeen percent, and that is 0:09:19.720 --> 0:09:23.720 short of the ambition needed to meet China's Paris Agreement goals. 0:09:24.760 --> 0:09:28.120 And that is even after missing the previous carbon intensity 0:09:28.120 --> 0:09:30.120 target and the last five year plan. And so I 0:09:30.120 --> 0:09:34.240 think this just stepping back really highlights something that we 0:09:34.280 --> 0:09:37.120 all talk about, which is that China is thought to 0:09:37.200 --> 0:09:40.960 have set very conservative targets and then to overachieve those targets. 0:09:41.520 --> 0:09:43.840 But here we're seeing that, you know, due to some 0:09:45.080 --> 0:09:47.800 economic challenges in the last five year plan and continued 0:09:47.880 --> 0:09:50.520 challenges with the trade war, with the real wars going 0:09:50.520 --> 0:09:54.120 on around the world, China's become more conservative in its 0:09:54.120 --> 0:09:58.160 target setting, and in fact it seems, you know, missing 0:09:58.200 --> 0:10:01.240 these targets we look back in the last five years, 0:10:01.480 --> 0:10:03.280 and so I think that just kind of signals that 0:10:03.360 --> 0:10:06.920 China is in this era of climate cautions as you 0:10:07.000 --> 0:10:07.800 described well. 0:10:07.800 --> 0:10:11.800 But it's also true that China builds the most amount 0:10:11.840 --> 0:10:13.960 of clean tech in the world, deploys most of it 0:10:14.000 --> 0:10:19.719 at home, and does overperform. So why the caution, that's right. 0:10:19.760 --> 0:10:23.560 I think it's sort of hard to grapple with because 0:10:23.679 --> 0:10:28.000 we report on and read about all of these record 0:10:28.000 --> 0:10:30.440 breaking years with clean energy deployment, and it seems like 0:10:30.520 --> 0:10:33.400 China is able to do this year after year pretty easily. 0:10:34.000 --> 0:10:36.120 But what we've seen is at the same time, there 0:10:36.120 --> 0:10:39.600 are other areas of emissions growth. And so if you 0:10:39.640 --> 0:10:42.560 look back on last year, we saw China's emissions actually 0:10:42.559 --> 0:10:46.320 dip for the first time outside of the pandemic in 0:10:46.400 --> 0:10:49.199 a while, and so emissions fell just marginally, but by 0:10:49.280 --> 0:10:53.560 zero point three percent, and that for some experts, you know, 0:10:53.760 --> 0:10:56.760 it seems like a sign of optimism that emissions might 0:10:56.760 --> 0:11:00.280 actually start to plateau and fall, but it's too soon 0:11:00.320 --> 0:11:04.319 to say, because we also saw emissions in say the 0:11:04.400 --> 0:11:07.240 chemical sector, which we can talk more about, go up 0:11:07.360 --> 0:11:10.800 twelve percent and that's an area where emissions could continue 0:11:10.800 --> 0:11:14.200 to climb going forward. So we're seeing positive trends in 0:11:14.520 --> 0:11:19.000 transportation emissions as China's ev sales grow up to the 0:11:19.000 --> 0:11:22.800 fifty percent level last year, oil use has gone down 0:11:22.840 --> 0:11:26.079 in that sector, and we also see power sector emissions 0:11:26.120 --> 0:11:29.360 starting to decline with the growth of renewable energy. So 0:11:29.440 --> 0:11:31.560 in all those fronts we see optimism, and it seems 0:11:31.600 --> 0:11:34.520 like China should be able to continue to meet its 0:11:34.640 --> 0:11:38.080 rather conservative climate targets and perhaps exceed them, and so 0:11:38.160 --> 0:11:40.679 that carbon intensity target should be achievable. But at the 0:11:40.720 --> 0:11:43.360 same time, there's so much uncertainty in the world, and 0:11:43.400 --> 0:11:46.319 we see China also trying to extend the use of 0:11:46.360 --> 0:11:49.040 its fossil fuels at least in the next five years 0:11:49.559 --> 0:11:51.560 in these new sectors such as the chemical industry. 0:11:51.880 --> 0:11:53.840 And then there's an aspect of the Five Year Plan, 0:11:53.920 --> 0:11:57.800 which really is a Soviet tool that not just China, 0:11:57.920 --> 0:12:02.040 but even India where I grew up, uses it's very 0:12:02.280 --> 0:12:05.200 clearly laid out that can have huge impacts. So we 0:12:05.280 --> 0:12:10.480 know in past five year plans clean technologies have been mentioned, 0:12:10.679 --> 0:12:13.920 and once they've been mentioned, that has led to huge deployment. 0:12:14.400 --> 0:12:17.200 As we know of solar batteries, electric cars, and all 0:12:17.240 --> 0:12:21.840 the capacity in electrical equipment manufacturing that China has built, 0:12:22.160 --> 0:12:26.000 which is allowing China to cut emissions at home some 0:12:26.040 --> 0:12:28.320 of it, but really allowing so much other world to 0:12:28.360 --> 0:12:32.080 cut emissions. Were there technologies that were mentioned in this 0:12:32.240 --> 0:12:36.320 five year plan that China is aiming to work on, 0:12:36.440 --> 0:12:39.120 and when it starts doing that, it can really bring 0:12:39.200 --> 0:12:40.640 the cost down quickly. 0:12:40.920 --> 0:12:43.720 Absolutely, you know, just looking back, as you said, in 0:12:43.760 --> 0:12:46.360 the previous fiber plans, we get these mentions of these 0:12:46.400 --> 0:12:48.840 technologies which end up being you know, kind of bedrock 0:12:48.880 --> 0:12:51.160 technologies in the coming five to ten years. And so 0:12:51.160 --> 0:12:54.760 it's really important. Even if the five year Plan operates 0:12:54.760 --> 0:12:57.880 at a fairly high level and is super detailed, often 0:12:57.880 --> 0:13:01.319 on targets, those signals are very important to watch. And 0:13:02.200 --> 0:13:04.360 I was just thinking back to this map in the 0:13:04.440 --> 0:13:08.720 last five year plan which showed the potential locations for 0:13:08.920 --> 0:13:12.840 these clean energy megabases in China in the Northwest, and 0:13:12.880 --> 0:13:15.240 we've seen just a huge growth in those megabases in 0:13:15.240 --> 0:13:18.280 the past five years, at a scale that was unimaginable 0:13:18.280 --> 0:13:20.520 in the rest of the world, like hundreds of gigawatts. 0:13:21.000 --> 0:13:24.960 One of our reporters went to that region. Actually, a 0:13:24.960 --> 0:13:27.079 whole team of our reporters went to that region and 0:13:27.880 --> 0:13:30.920 visited one of these megabases in Inner Mongolia and described 0:13:31.400 --> 0:13:33.960 the scale as I think it was twelve Central park's 0:13:34.040 --> 0:13:37.160 worth of solar panels. This is just massive. So yes, 0:13:37.200 --> 0:13:39.560 it's really important to look at one of the name 0:13:39.640 --> 0:13:41.880 drops in the five year Plan as to what's coming 0:13:41.960 --> 0:13:45.920 up going forward. This year in the five year Plan, 0:13:46.080 --> 0:13:49.720 we saw a couple new sectors. Of course, there's still 0:13:49.760 --> 0:13:53.800 mentions of the bedrock technologies of clean energy as a 0:13:53.800 --> 0:13:58.760 share of total energy consumption, reaffirming those previous targets that 0:13:58.800 --> 0:14:01.400 have been set to increase that by twenty thirty. But 0:14:01.520 --> 0:14:04.080 beyond that, there are these frontier technologies that China really 0:14:04.080 --> 0:14:07.520 wants to develop further, and so we see a couple 0:14:07.640 --> 0:14:10.720 kind of new terms catchphrases that we might see going forward. 0:14:11.280 --> 0:14:13.760 One of those is this concept of a zero carbon 0:14:13.760 --> 0:14:17.160 industrial park. China set the goal of building around one 0:14:17.240 --> 0:14:20.600 hundred of those parks in the next five years. That 0:14:20.840 --> 0:14:23.359 is essentially kind of like a new type of factory 0:14:23.480 --> 0:14:27.240 or industrial park throughout China, and that would look like 0:14:27.960 --> 0:14:32.120 direct purchase of green electricity, greater use of green hydrogen 0:14:32.160 --> 0:14:36.800 when electricity use is impossible, large scale battery deployment, and 0:14:36.840 --> 0:14:39.920 then kind of advanced ideas of more synergy between different 0:14:39.960 --> 0:14:42.400 industries within the park to try to get emissions down 0:14:42.400 --> 0:14:45.080 as low as possible, and of course, because China is 0:14:45.080 --> 0:14:49.160 a manufacturing powerhouse, getting those emissions down is super important. 0:14:49.920 --> 0:14:52.040 So that's kind of like not one technology, but sort 0:14:52.080 --> 0:14:55.920 of an amalgamation of different technologies into more of a 0:14:56.000 --> 0:15:01.480 system going forward. Other concepts technologies that were mentioned the 0:15:01.560 --> 0:15:05.000 Vivier Plan include green fuels, So this is a really 0:15:05.080 --> 0:15:08.720 new area for development in China, and we see in 0:15:08.760 --> 0:15:12.240 a couple cases already the development of green ammonia and 0:15:12.320 --> 0:15:15.840 methanol which can be used in shipping and other areas 0:15:15.840 --> 0:15:19.680 where electrification is impossible, and that would involve the use 0:15:19.680 --> 0:15:22.520 of green hydrogen as well. So this is a really 0:15:22.520 --> 0:15:26.120 new area for China, but one to watch going forward. Equally, 0:15:26.200 --> 0:15:29.600 kind of on the frontier of technology is the idea 0:15:29.640 --> 0:15:34.920 of a zero carbon freight transport corridor, and China set 0:15:34.960 --> 0:15:37.800 the goal of building ten thousand kilometers of this new 0:15:37.840 --> 0:15:40.800 corridor in the Fiber Plan, and that really is referring 0:15:40.840 --> 0:15:45.800 to freight like long distance trucking e trucks, electric trucks, 0:15:46.160 --> 0:15:48.880 so that's something to watch. That might mean cool battery 0:15:48.920 --> 0:15:53.080 swapping on highways, better charging infrastructure across the board. And 0:15:53.120 --> 0:15:55.440 then of course there are these kind of more futuristic 0:15:55.480 --> 0:15:59.000 technologies like nuclear fusion, and that there is no clear 0:15:59.040 --> 0:16:02.280 target in the plan. It's just something that China has 0:16:02.280 --> 0:16:04.560 its eye on for further development and obviously would be 0:16:04.920 --> 0:16:08.160 really revolutionary if anything that significant happens in the next 0:16:08.200 --> 0:16:10.880 five years, but there's no there's no clear target behind. 0:16:10.640 --> 0:16:14.600 That, and some of these things really can make a 0:16:14.640 --> 0:16:17.760 huge difference. I mean, we are seeing real squeeze on diesel, 0:16:17.840 --> 0:16:21.800 for example, among all the refined products from the Strait 0:16:21.800 --> 0:16:24.360 of horm moves that come out, but diesel in particular 0:16:24.520 --> 0:16:28.240 is used in heavy duty trucks and it's become really expensive. 0:16:28.280 --> 0:16:31.640 So things like electric trucks as they become cheaper and 0:16:31.680 --> 0:16:35.119 their adoption grows because of China, but also other places 0:16:35.560 --> 0:16:39.960 build see more trucking electric. There's also talk about green 0:16:40.000 --> 0:16:42.920 fuels in Europe because Europe doesn't have much of its 0:16:42.920 --> 0:16:48.040 own fossil fuels, and especially in a war, you need 0:16:48.160 --> 0:16:50.600 jet fuel to be able to run all these planes. 0:16:50.920 --> 0:16:53.160 And so if the Strait of hormones is shut. You know, 0:16:53.240 --> 0:16:54.920 where are you going to get your jet fuel from? 0:16:55.240 --> 0:16:58.840 Perhaps you need to have green fuel capacity for war purposes, 0:16:58.880 --> 0:17:01.920 if not for climate goals. So coming to the war though, 0:17:02.080 --> 0:17:06.240 I mean, China has in some ways been preparing for 0:17:06.760 --> 0:17:10.119 a moment like this. Obviously, the one that it prepares 0:17:10.160 --> 0:17:14.280 for most is if there's a war with Taiwan and 0:17:14.359 --> 0:17:17.760 trying to capture it and what the US might do 0:17:17.800 --> 0:17:20.399 as a result. Choking up the Strait of Foremost is 0:17:20.440 --> 0:17:24.160 one of those things that it might do. Does any 0:17:24.240 --> 0:17:30.200 of what's happening with the war affect China's trajectory on energy. 0:17:30.960 --> 0:17:34.520 Yeah, it's really been head spinning in terms of the 0:17:34.560 --> 0:17:38.800 speed of changes across the world the last few weeks 0:17:38.840 --> 0:17:40.840 since the Five Year Plan came out, and so we 0:17:40.880 --> 0:17:43.680 are looking at a different reality now. I would say 0:17:43.760 --> 0:17:45.960 the reality has changed more in other parts of Asia 0:17:46.000 --> 0:17:49.000 compared to China, because, as you said, China has been 0:17:49.000 --> 0:17:52.159 preparing for this moment for a long time. Chinese policymakers 0:17:52.160 --> 0:17:54.960 are obsessed with energy security. There is a major power 0:17:55.040 --> 0:17:58.240 crunch in China about four years ago, and that really 0:17:58.280 --> 0:18:02.280 led policymakers to double down on the backbone of the 0:18:02.359 --> 0:18:06.280 Chinese energy system, which is coal of course, So as 0:18:06.400 --> 0:18:10.320 clean energy deployment has really increased in China, so has 0:18:10.359 --> 0:18:13.640 the development of coal fired power plants. And also this 0:18:14.320 --> 0:18:17.400 you know coal to chemicals industry that we touched on earlier. 0:18:17.960 --> 0:18:19.840 All the experts I've been talking to you seem to 0:18:19.840 --> 0:18:24.080 think China is fairly well insulated from the energy energy 0:18:24.080 --> 0:18:27.200 shocks that we're seeing play out across Asia right now. 0:18:27.320 --> 0:18:30.240 You know, it has stockpiles of oil, it has the 0:18:30.280 --> 0:18:34.840 domestic coal resources that it needs, but of course it's 0:18:34.880 --> 0:18:38.560 not fully insulated. And so as we see oil prices 0:18:38.600 --> 0:18:42.280 go up, our colleagues that BLIMMERG Intelligence actually projected that, 0:18:42.720 --> 0:18:45.440 you know, if oil prices remain at the current levels, 0:18:45.480 --> 0:18:48.399 we could see coal use in the chemical sector double 0:18:48.480 --> 0:18:50.600 this year, which you know, if you think about how 0:18:50.600 --> 0:18:53.680 intensive that sector is from an emissions perspective, could really 0:18:53.720 --> 0:18:57.640 be significant for China's carbon footprint. So I think it's 0:18:57.680 --> 0:18:59.760 too soon to say exactly how this will shake out. 0:18:59.800 --> 0:19:01.439 You know, we don't know what the trajectory of the 0:19:01.440 --> 0:19:04.679 war is, but China's default is to revert back to 0:19:04.800 --> 0:19:07.720 cole at least to some extent in the short term, 0:19:07.720 --> 0:19:10.119 and I don't think that means abandoning the clean energy plans, 0:19:10.160 --> 0:19:12.359 but it might mean that we see an increase in 0:19:12.400 --> 0:19:15.640 emissions compared to with the pre war trajectory in this. 0:19:15.640 --> 0:19:23.040 Year after the break more of my conversation with Lily 0:19:23.160 --> 0:19:25.480 Pike and while I have you, please take a moment 0:19:25.520 --> 0:19:29.960 to rate or review zero on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or YouTube. Recently, 0:19:30.160 --> 0:19:34.240 amster Boo wrote clear and informative but engaging and made 0:19:34.280 --> 0:19:36.240 me smile. Thank you, Emster Boom. 0:19:52.440 --> 0:19:55.119 So Akshat. Now to turn the tables, I wanted to 0:19:55.119 --> 0:19:57.080 ask you about some of the reporting you've been doing 0:19:57.160 --> 0:20:02.399 lately on what's happening in India, just the third largest 0:20:02.400 --> 0:20:07.000 emitter after the US and China. So you've covered this 0:20:07.080 --> 0:20:09.240 major new plan that was just released in India. I 0:20:09.280 --> 0:20:11.040 know you were waiting for this plan to drop for 0:20:11.080 --> 0:20:13.879 a long time. Can you explain what was in the 0:20:13.920 --> 0:20:17.000 plan and what it means for India's climate trajector going forward. 0:20:17.359 --> 0:20:19.960 Yeah, we got so many false starts about this plan 0:20:20.040 --> 0:20:22.600 coming out that it was getting boring by the end 0:20:22.640 --> 0:20:25.680 of it. Then it really did come out of nowhere 0:20:25.720 --> 0:20:28.760 because nobody was expecting it to happen while the war 0:20:28.880 --> 0:20:31.760 was playing out and India is suffering from an energy crunch. 0:20:32.240 --> 0:20:35.680 But yes, we got a plan that has targets set 0:20:35.680 --> 0:20:39.040 out to twenty thirty five. This plan, unlike the China 0:20:39.080 --> 0:20:41.440 Five Year Plan, is not a domestic plan. It's really 0:20:41.600 --> 0:20:45.240 a plan submitted to the United Nations as part of 0:20:45.280 --> 0:20:51.720 India's commitment to the Paris Agreement. And the Paris Agreement 0:20:52.200 --> 0:20:54.639 is one that requires all countries to act. And so 0:20:55.040 --> 0:20:57.879 you know, even though this plan is late, should have 0:20:57.920 --> 0:21:01.200 been submitted in February twenty twenty five, there were commentaers 0:21:02.240 --> 0:21:05.880 praising that India is still committed to acting on climate 0:21:06.440 --> 0:21:09.840 and even though it's late, just having that plan is 0:21:10.240 --> 0:21:13.840 better than say the US, where Donald Trump has pulled 0:21:13.840 --> 0:21:16.880 the US out of the Paris Agreement. The plane itself 0:21:17.760 --> 0:21:22.520 has set goals that are pretty weak. So it has 0:21:22.560 --> 0:21:26.520 also set, just like China, a carbon intensity target. And 0:21:26.600 --> 0:21:31.080 so those carbon intensity targets are set by the base 0:21:31.280 --> 0:21:35.359 being two thousand and five, and then by twenty thirty 0:21:35.359 --> 0:21:39.880 five there'll be a carbon intensity cut of forty seven percent. Now, 0:21:39.880 --> 0:21:43.679 this is only slightly above a forty five percent reduction 0:21:43.760 --> 0:21:47.040 in carbon intensity that India already is aiming for by 0:21:47.119 --> 0:21:51.960 twenty thirty then the other concrete target in the plan 0:21:52.440 --> 0:21:57.960 was to increase the share of non fossil fuel power 0:21:58.280 --> 0:22:03.240 in the grid mix to sixty percent by twenty thirty five. Currently, 0:22:04.080 --> 0:22:07.800 as of twenty twenty six, it's at fifty three percent, 0:22:08.640 --> 0:22:13.199 and the pace at which India has been deploying renewable energy, 0:22:13.480 --> 0:22:16.520 that goal of sixty percent would be very easily met. 0:22:16.600 --> 0:22:20.840 If anything, the India Power Ministry was aiming for something 0:22:20.880 --> 0:22:25.560 like seventy percent non fossil fuels by twenty thirty six, 0:22:26.800 --> 0:22:30.639 and so on the target side, those targets are weak, 0:22:30.840 --> 0:22:35.199 and again, just like China, they are signaling caution and 0:22:35.240 --> 0:22:40.760 it's to some extent understandable. Right, Both China and India 0:22:41.160 --> 0:22:45.680 went on their carbon intensive trajectory much later than Europe 0:22:45.840 --> 0:22:48.920 or the US did, and now that the US, which 0:22:48.960 --> 0:22:52.160 is the largest historical limitter of emissions, has pulled out 0:22:52.200 --> 0:22:55.800 of this process, there isn't that much pressure on India 0:22:55.800 --> 0:23:00.840 and China to aim higher. And sure Europe tried, but 0:23:00.960 --> 0:23:04.800 Europe on its own is not as big a motivator 0:23:05.040 --> 0:23:09.000 for India. So the targets we got were weaker targets, 0:23:09.400 --> 0:23:11.880 but at least India has committed to the process. 0:23:12.280 --> 0:23:17.080 We talked about China being known to set relatively conservative 0:23:17.119 --> 0:23:20.280 targets and overperform. Do you see these new targets as 0:23:20.640 --> 0:23:23.720 a way of setting a benchmark that is easily achievable 0:23:23.760 --> 0:23:25.919 so that India knows it will meet the targets or 0:23:25.960 --> 0:23:28.320 do you think that you know it's still possible that 0:23:28.320 --> 0:23:29.160 they won't be met. 0:23:29.320 --> 0:23:31.879 I say that at least India has done so in 0:23:31.880 --> 0:23:35.360 the past. So in twenty fourteen, Prime Minister Mode set 0:23:35.359 --> 0:23:39.680 a goal that India will build one hundred gigawards of 0:23:39.840 --> 0:23:44.680 clean energy by twenty twenty two, and it exceeded that target. 0:23:45.080 --> 0:23:48.720