1 00:00:04,440 --> 00:00:09,520 Speaker 1: From Bloomberg News and iHeartRadio. It's the big tag. I'm 2 00:00:09,520 --> 00:00:21,120 Speaker 1: west Kosova today. A devastating year of war in Ukraine. 3 00:00:24,720 --> 00:00:29,320 Speaker 1: February twenty fourth marks one year since Russia invaded Ukraine. 4 00:00:30,120 --> 00:00:33,160 Speaker 1: In a televised speech at the time, President Vladimir Putin 5 00:00:33,200 --> 00:00:35,720 Speaker 1: described the attack not as the start of a war, 6 00:00:35,960 --> 00:00:40,240 Speaker 1: but what he called a special military operation. We're putting 7 00:00:40,240 --> 00:00:47,080 Speaker 1: it to dust. Putin and his general's anticipated Ukraine's army 8 00:00:47,120 --> 00:00:50,879 Speaker 1: would fold and Russia would quickly capture Kia of the capitol. 9 00:00:51,320 --> 00:00:53,760 Speaker 1: As we've all seen. Of course, that did not happen. 10 00:00:54,080 --> 00:00:58,400 Speaker 1: Ukraine's military has fought back Russia's forces against all bolts 11 00:00:59,200 --> 00:01:06,160 Speaker 1: and doom and gloom scenarios. Ukraine didn't fall. Ukraine is 12 00:01:06,200 --> 00:01:11,560 Speaker 1: alive and keying in Europe. In the US have provided 13 00:01:11,680 --> 00:01:15,960 Speaker 1: Ukraine with guns, ammunition, and drones, and advanced missiles and 14 00:01:16,040 --> 00:01:18,720 Speaker 1: tanks may soon be on the way. We will not 15 00:01:18,760 --> 00:01:22,000 Speaker 1: only support financially but also empower Ukraine to make the 16 00:01:22,040 --> 00:01:26,800 Speaker 1: most of its potential. And we've given Ukraine what they 17 00:01:26,880 --> 00:01:30,360 Speaker 1: needed when they needed to defend themselves and since the 18 00:01:30,440 --> 00:01:35,600 Speaker 1: invasion that has result at more than twenty billion dollars 19 00:01:35,600 --> 00:01:39,160 Speaker 1: in terms of security assistance. But the war has taken 20 00:01:39,280 --> 00:01:43,720 Speaker 1: a terrible toll. Thousands have died, cities and homes have 21 00:01:43,840 --> 00:01:47,720 Speaker 1: been destroyed, and millions of Ukrainians who fled are now 22 00:01:47,800 --> 00:01:52,200 Speaker 1: living as refugees in other countries Ukraine just into Poland, 23 00:01:52,240 --> 00:01:55,480 Speaker 1: and that's just in the last twelve days. Those numbers 24 00:01:55,480 --> 00:01:58,720 Speaker 1: continue to grow. This is the biggest refugee crisis Europe 25 00:01:58,760 --> 00:02:00,960 Speaker 1: has faced since World Well. Soon hey on the ground, 26 00:02:01,000 --> 00:02:04,960 Speaker 1: as Ukraine braces for an expected next wave of Russian attacks. 27 00:02:05,000 --> 00:02:08,720 Speaker 1: I ask my colleagues Darena Krasna Lutska and Mark Champion 28 00:02:08,880 --> 00:02:12,720 Speaker 1: in Kiev and ros Matheson in London to take stock 29 00:02:12,760 --> 00:02:15,440 Speaker 1: of all that has happened in the past year and 30 00:02:15,560 --> 00:02:21,280 Speaker 1: what lies ahead. Dasha, after a year, I suppose one 31 00:02:21,320 --> 00:02:24,680 Speaker 1: of the most important things that's happened is what hasn't happened, 32 00:02:25,040 --> 00:02:28,400 Speaker 1: which is that Russia has failed in its effort to 33 00:02:28,440 --> 00:02:32,280 Speaker 1: take over Ukrainian that Ukraine still stands as a nation. 34 00:02:32,919 --> 00:02:36,239 Speaker 1: You're in kievd right now. Can you describe what it's 35 00:02:36,320 --> 00:02:40,200 Speaker 1: like there and in the country right now? It's quite 36 00:02:40,320 --> 00:02:43,800 Speaker 1: loud now on the streets when the electricity is katout 37 00:02:43,880 --> 00:02:46,760 Speaker 1: and it still happens on a daily basis. You walk 38 00:02:46,800 --> 00:02:49,680 Speaker 1: on the main street that you can hear that quite 39 00:02:49,800 --> 00:02:53,400 Speaker 1: loud noise from generators and also the smell is not perfect. 40 00:02:53,680 --> 00:02:58,160 Speaker 1: But shops are working, he addressers are working, business is working. 41 00:02:58,520 --> 00:03:02,839 Speaker 1: So in that regard, Ukrainians are fighting in every possible way. 42 00:03:03,560 --> 00:03:07,560 Speaker 1: How are the Ukrainian people feeling about the state of 43 00:03:07,639 --> 00:03:11,640 Speaker 1: what's happening now. It's obviously been an enormously traumatic year. 44 00:03:12,240 --> 00:03:15,679 Speaker 1: We see lots of funerals now because fighting is very 45 00:03:15,680 --> 00:03:18,960 Speaker 1: swee in the eastern part of the country. But still 46 00:03:19,120 --> 00:03:22,200 Speaker 1: Ukrainians are not ready to lay down their weapons and 47 00:03:22,440 --> 00:03:27,359 Speaker 1: the president himself feels this desire to fight further. Ukrainians 48 00:03:27,760 --> 00:03:31,200 Speaker 1: main thought is that if we allow Russia to take 49 00:03:31,240 --> 00:03:34,960 Speaker 1: at least part of our land in several years, it 50 00:03:35,000 --> 00:03:38,320 Speaker 1: will rebuild its forces again and it will try to 51 00:03:38,400 --> 00:03:40,840 Speaker 1: seize more of our land. We saw that back in 52 00:03:40,880 --> 00:03:44,520 Speaker 1: two thousand and fourteen when there was a fragile peace 53 00:03:44,560 --> 00:03:47,560 Speaker 1: secret with Russia that it just resulted in a full 54 00:03:47,560 --> 00:03:50,920 Speaker 1: scale war just several years later. So this time Ukrainians 55 00:03:50,960 --> 00:03:55,720 Speaker 1: are determined to regain control on all the territory and 56 00:03:56,040 --> 00:03:59,800 Speaker 1: try to keep push Russia back as much as possible, 57 00:04:00,360 --> 00:04:02,480 Speaker 1: if I can just add just a little bit to 58 00:04:02,600 --> 00:04:06,160 Speaker 1: what Dasha was saying, I come in and out. You know, 59 00:04:06,240 --> 00:04:09,880 Speaker 1: Dasha lives here the whole time. So when I was 60 00:04:10,000 --> 00:04:12,920 Speaker 1: last year in October, it's kind of noticeable to me 61 00:04:13,040 --> 00:04:16,240 Speaker 1: at least, is that the mood I think is a 62 00:04:16,240 --> 00:04:20,080 Speaker 1: little more sober, a little more grim. You can tell 63 00:04:20,120 --> 00:04:22,640 Speaker 1: that it's been a very hard winter for the reasons 64 00:04:22,680 --> 00:04:26,560 Speaker 1: that Dasha was laying out, but also you know, in 65 00:04:26,600 --> 00:04:31,720 Speaker 1: October you'd just come off these two very successful counter offensives. 66 00:04:32,200 --> 00:04:35,880 Speaker 1: There was quite a bit of optimism, and the main 67 00:04:35,960 --> 00:04:38,120 Speaker 1: question for people was, you know, well, the winter is 68 00:04:38,120 --> 00:04:40,320 Speaker 1: coming in, it will slow down, But the question was 69 00:04:40,400 --> 00:04:44,360 Speaker 1: when will our next offensive be? And now coming back, 70 00:04:44,800 --> 00:04:47,560 Speaker 1: it's not that people are pessimistic or that they've given 71 00:04:47,640 --> 00:04:51,440 Speaker 1: up in any sense. It's just it's more sober, more grim. 72 00:04:51,600 --> 00:04:54,919 Speaker 1: And the question now is, well, you know, when exactly 73 00:04:54,960 --> 00:04:58,800 Speaker 1: will the Russian offensive begin? Any answer that is it's 74 00:04:59,360 --> 00:05:01,360 Speaker 1: you know, if it has begun already, it will be soon, 75 00:05:01,880 --> 00:05:04,080 Speaker 1: and you know we're going to need to survive that 76 00:05:04,200 --> 00:05:08,000 Speaker 1: before we get our turn. So that's the main thing 77 00:05:08,040 --> 00:05:11,000 Speaker 1: that has struck me in recent months. Can you give 78 00:05:11,040 --> 00:05:16,039 Speaker 1: a sense of right now, how much of Ukraine is 79 00:05:16,760 --> 00:05:19,599 Speaker 1: occupied by Russian forces, how much of it is in 80 00:05:19,640 --> 00:05:24,440 Speaker 1: the control of Russian forces, and how much is in 81 00:05:24,839 --> 00:05:30,120 Speaker 1: Ukraine's firm hands. It's hard to estimate because obviously we 82 00:05:30,160 --> 00:05:34,279 Speaker 1: need to rely on official data. What Ukraine regained. It 83 00:05:34,320 --> 00:05:38,320 Speaker 1: seems to me that at least what the official information is, 84 00:05:38,360 --> 00:05:40,599 Speaker 1: and that's what I also hear from people I know 85 00:05:40,680 --> 00:05:43,960 Speaker 1: and who are battling now in the east and in 86 00:05:44,040 --> 00:05:49,240 Speaker 1: the south. The area that Ukraine regained, they managed to 87 00:05:49,240 --> 00:05:53,680 Speaker 1: build some good defensive lines. So even if Russia starts 88 00:05:54,160 --> 00:05:58,280 Speaker 1: counterfensive or another offensive, it won't be that easy for 89 00:05:58,320 --> 00:06:02,360 Speaker 1: them to take again, for example, Hirson under their control, 90 00:06:02,960 --> 00:06:06,640 Speaker 1: or move much further in the south of Ukraine. It's 91 00:06:06,680 --> 00:06:13,480 Speaker 1: around Zapurisia region. But again Russia managed to build quite 92 00:06:13,760 --> 00:06:17,120 Speaker 1: strong defense lines in the area in don Bus region. 93 00:06:17,279 --> 00:06:21,159 Speaker 1: So for Ukraine, if and when it starts its contrafensive, 94 00:06:21,160 --> 00:06:24,080 Speaker 1: it's going to be very difficult to advance in any 95 00:06:24,120 --> 00:06:31,839 Speaker 1: of those directions that people actually expected to advance. Razzi 96 00:06:31,920 --> 00:06:34,960 Speaker 1: year ago of Vladimir Putin believed his military would quickly 97 00:06:35,000 --> 00:06:39,839 Speaker 1: defeat Ukraine, that Kiev would practically fall overnight, obviously that 98 00:06:39,960 --> 00:06:43,480 Speaker 1: hasn't happened. How do you put in these generals get 99 00:06:43,520 --> 00:06:46,840 Speaker 1: this so wrong? Well, that's an interesting question. I'm sure 100 00:06:46,880 --> 00:06:49,680 Speaker 1: Mark has some views on this. Also, because there was 101 00:06:49,720 --> 00:06:51,440 Speaker 1: a lot written in the run up to the war 102 00:06:51,640 --> 00:06:54,320 Speaker 1: about the fact that Russia had spent an enormous amount 103 00:06:54,360 --> 00:06:58,000 Speaker 1: of money over a period of years modernizing its military. 104 00:06:58,120 --> 00:07:01,320 Speaker 1: It had a very large, learned army, It was considered 105 00:07:01,360 --> 00:07:04,360 Speaker 1: to be very well trained. There was the expectation, as 106 00:07:04,400 --> 00:07:07,920 Speaker 1: you say, that that even though Ukraine had had previous 107 00:07:07,960 --> 00:07:11,280 Speaker 1: experience in combat, that the Russian troops would simply be superior, 108 00:07:11,840 --> 00:07:14,720 Speaker 1: better organized, better equipment and so on, and the sort 109 00:07:14,720 --> 00:07:17,360 Speaker 1: of mystique that came around that, and what we really 110 00:07:17,400 --> 00:07:20,280 Speaker 1: saw is in fact big questions now about where did 111 00:07:20,320 --> 00:07:23,160 Speaker 1: all that money go to that big Russian modernization that 112 00:07:23,160 --> 00:07:25,680 Speaker 1: we all wrote about and heard about for years, Because 113 00:07:25,680 --> 00:07:28,720 Speaker 1: it certainly didn't go into training and good equipment, going 114 00:07:28,760 --> 00:07:31,520 Speaker 1: by what we've seen happened on the ground in Ukraine, 115 00:07:31,600 --> 00:07:33,880 Speaker 1: so certainly a lot of it was probably funneled off 116 00:07:34,280 --> 00:07:36,880 Speaker 1: in corruption. Perhaps there were lots of people who just 117 00:07:37,000 --> 00:07:40,080 Speaker 1: simply told the Russian president, no, no, no, the military 118 00:07:40,160 --> 00:07:43,320 Speaker 1: is terrific. This will be an easy walkover for unone 119 00:07:43,440 --> 00:07:45,720 Speaker 1: was prepared to tell him the reality of the state 120 00:07:46,120 --> 00:07:49,000 Speaker 1: of his own military, which had degraded. But we've seen, 121 00:07:49,520 --> 00:07:51,440 Speaker 1: you know, from the action on the ground, not just 122 00:07:51,480 --> 00:07:54,560 Speaker 1: sort of questions about the capacity of the troops or 123 00:07:54,560 --> 00:07:57,440 Speaker 1: the equipment, but really sort of fundamental questions about the 124 00:07:57,480 --> 00:08:01,200 Speaker 1: way the military is organized or organized in this case, 125 00:08:01,240 --> 00:08:04,760 Speaker 1: in terms of the leadership, structure, command and control. All 126 00:08:04,800 --> 00:08:07,320 Speaker 1: of it is seemed to be pretty poor. And the 127 00:08:07,400 --> 00:08:10,200 Speaker 1: question is why simply has Russia not done better for 128 00:08:10,560 --> 00:08:12,680 Speaker 1: a phrase on the ground. But I'm sure Mark has 129 00:08:12,720 --> 00:08:16,360 Speaker 1: some observations about that too. Yeah, I think that's that's 130 00:08:16,400 --> 00:08:19,760 Speaker 1: all right, you know, And if you had to prioritize, 131 00:08:19,800 --> 00:08:21,480 Speaker 1: you know, because I mean a lot of people in 132 00:08:21,520 --> 00:08:25,400 Speaker 1: a lot of militaries outside Russia and Ukraine have been, 133 00:08:25,840 --> 00:08:28,400 Speaker 1: you know, working pretty hard to figure this out because 134 00:08:28,400 --> 00:08:31,440 Speaker 1: it really matters, you know, it really matters whether the 135 00:08:31,560 --> 00:08:34,720 Speaker 1: Russians just sort of messed up this time or whether 136 00:08:34,920 --> 00:08:38,160 Speaker 1: there's something seriously wrong with the way that they fight 137 00:08:38,559 --> 00:08:41,920 Speaker 1: with the equipment they have, and that changes everybody's calculations. 138 00:08:41,920 --> 00:08:45,240 Speaker 1: And I think for a lot of analysts and you know, 139 00:08:45,280 --> 00:08:48,400 Speaker 1: sort of defense ministries and so on. The tendency is 140 00:08:48,440 --> 00:08:52,240 Speaker 1: to say, well, the number one reason why they did 141 00:08:52,360 --> 00:08:57,760 Speaker 1: so poorly was really down to Putin and his immediate entourage, 142 00:08:57,800 --> 00:09:02,160 Speaker 1: who directed the plan and for action more or less 143 00:09:02,160 --> 00:09:06,000 Speaker 1: without the generals because they wanted an element of surprise. 144 00:09:06,559 --> 00:09:10,959 Speaker 1: They also didn't inform even quite senior commanders and certainly 145 00:09:10,960 --> 00:09:15,000 Speaker 1: not the troops until even the day of invasion. So 146 00:09:15,040 --> 00:09:18,680 Speaker 1: they were extremely ill prepared. They made all the wrong assumptions, 147 00:09:19,080 --> 00:09:23,280 Speaker 1: and they therefore went in in ways that really have 148 00:09:23,480 --> 00:09:25,920 Speaker 1: nothing to do with warfare. It was like a parade. 149 00:09:26,679 --> 00:09:30,280 Speaker 1: So and that the lasting problem there is that they 150 00:09:30,400 --> 00:09:34,640 Speaker 1: lost a lot around Kiev, and in those early weeks 151 00:09:35,080 --> 00:09:40,680 Speaker 1: they lost really very large numbers of their best troops. 152 00:09:40,960 --> 00:09:43,560 Speaker 1: They sent their best people in, their best trained people, 153 00:09:43,559 --> 00:09:45,960 Speaker 1: their best equipped, you know, their airborne forces and so on, 154 00:09:46,080 --> 00:09:49,600 Speaker 1: and they were decimated. And now these troops have to 155 00:09:49,600 --> 00:09:52,679 Speaker 1: be backfilled and replaced. You know, the troops that come in. Now, 156 00:09:52,760 --> 00:09:55,680 Speaker 1: the equipment that replaces the equipment that was destroyed huge 157 00:09:55,679 --> 00:09:58,440 Speaker 1: amounts is not as good, it's not as well trained, 158 00:09:58,440 --> 00:10:01,560 Speaker 1: the equipments older and on. So they it's one of 159 00:10:01,559 --> 00:10:04,000 Speaker 1: those things where you can't just try again because you 160 00:10:04,040 --> 00:10:07,880 Speaker 1: don't have the same resources with which to try again. 161 00:10:08,320 --> 00:10:11,080 Speaker 1: And that said, all of that said, there's a lot 162 00:10:11,120 --> 00:10:15,320 Speaker 1: of caution in just dismissing the ability of the Russians 163 00:10:15,320 --> 00:10:18,600 Speaker 1: to learn. One big worry is that the dog that 164 00:10:18,640 --> 00:10:22,400 Speaker 1: didn't bark in this fight has been the Russian air force, 165 00:10:22,440 --> 00:10:27,160 Speaker 1: which is very large and does have very capable aircraft, 166 00:10:27,320 --> 00:10:30,720 Speaker 1: very capable missiles and so on, and they failed to 167 00:10:30,880 --> 00:10:35,040 Speaker 1: impose air superiority, which changed the whole nature of the war. 168 00:10:35,640 --> 00:10:36,960 Speaker 1: I was going to say, Mark, there was one thing 169 00:10:36,960 --> 00:10:39,400 Speaker 1: I was curious about with the air force that you mentioned, 170 00:10:39,400 --> 00:10:41,640 Speaker 1: and it's come up a lot, is why did they 171 00:10:41,760 --> 00:10:44,080 Speaker 1: not use their air force to greater effect in the 172 00:10:44,120 --> 00:10:46,400 Speaker 1: early stages of the war. Why did they not really 173 00:10:46,440 --> 00:10:50,480 Speaker 1: deploy that to full effect and also potentially bombing more 174 00:10:50,520 --> 00:10:52,600 Speaker 1: targets in the early stages of the war. Why did 175 00:10:52,640 --> 00:10:55,520 Speaker 1: they seemingly rely so much on the ground. And that's 176 00:10:55,679 --> 00:10:59,319 Speaker 1: a question that we hear a lot absolutely. I mean, 177 00:10:59,360 --> 00:11:02,000 Speaker 1: I think there's a number of elements. One is that 178 00:11:02,559 --> 00:11:05,240 Speaker 1: taking out air defenses is one of the hardest things 179 00:11:05,280 --> 00:11:08,960 Speaker 1: to do, and they may just not have been very 180 00:11:09,000 --> 00:11:12,560 Speaker 1: well trained for it. It's not the task that they 181 00:11:12,559 --> 00:11:15,080 Speaker 1: spent all their time training for they may not have 182 00:11:15,080 --> 00:11:17,200 Speaker 1: had as many hours in training as they should have 183 00:11:17,200 --> 00:11:20,360 Speaker 1: had and so on. But another factor is simply that 184 00:11:20,480 --> 00:11:24,959 Speaker 1: because in the early stages, the early hours of the campaign, 185 00:11:25,400 --> 00:11:29,200 Speaker 1: there was this complete misconception of what was going to happen. 186 00:11:29,280 --> 00:11:32,559 Speaker 1: So in those first critical couple of days at the beginning, 187 00:11:33,120 --> 00:11:36,199 Speaker 1: the air force went in, it bombed various targets. It 188 00:11:36,200 --> 00:11:38,760 Speaker 1: actually didn't have very good information, it was quite out 189 00:11:38,760 --> 00:11:42,520 Speaker 1: of date, and immediately it became clear that the ground 190 00:11:42,520 --> 00:11:44,840 Speaker 1: forces were getting into trouble. So the air force was 191 00:11:44,920 --> 00:11:49,439 Speaker 1: diverted into a support role for the ground forces, and 192 00:11:49,600 --> 00:11:52,840 Speaker 1: there weren't spending all their time trying to take out 193 00:11:52,880 --> 00:11:55,520 Speaker 1: the air defenses, the airfields and so on, And the 194 00:11:55,600 --> 00:11:59,080 Speaker 1: Ukrainians had time to move their planes so that they 195 00:11:59,080 --> 00:12:02,080 Speaker 1: wouldn't get destroyed, so that they weren't where they the 196 00:12:02,120 --> 00:12:05,280 Speaker 1: Russians expected them to be. So, you know, there's sort 197 00:12:05,280 --> 00:12:07,320 Speaker 1: of a number of elements in there that people are 198 00:12:07,320 --> 00:12:09,920 Speaker 1: sort of trying to pick apart. But obviously, you know, 199 00:12:10,120 --> 00:12:12,440 Speaker 1: none of us were in the cockpits or in the 200 00:12:13,040 --> 00:12:16,079 Speaker 1: you know, in the command structure and know exactly what happened. 201 00:12:16,320 --> 00:12:20,320 Speaker 1: But that seems to have been a contributor Dasha, And 202 00:12:20,400 --> 00:12:25,280 Speaker 1: it wasn't just Russia's poor planning and poor execution, but 203 00:12:25,880 --> 00:12:31,000 Speaker 1: a remarkable response by Ukraine's military, which was everything that 204 00:12:31,040 --> 00:12:34,520 Speaker 1: the Russian military has not been. It has been fast, 205 00:12:34,960 --> 00:12:38,800 Speaker 1: it's been innovative, it's been efficient in the use of 206 00:12:38,960 --> 00:12:43,000 Speaker 1: its weapons. It's even when it was greatly outpowered, it 207 00:12:43,120 --> 00:12:47,000 Speaker 1: made better use of what it had. How has Ukraine 208 00:12:47,040 --> 00:12:51,040 Speaker 1: been able to essentially be so nimble in the face 209 00:12:51,080 --> 00:12:54,760 Speaker 1: of superior firepower. Well, people say that, first of all, 210 00:12:55,360 --> 00:12:59,600 Speaker 1: motivation means right, and here Ukrainians are fighting for their land. 211 00:13:00,040 --> 00:13:03,480 Speaker 1: While when you ask a Russian what he is doing here, 212 00:13:03,679 --> 00:13:07,040 Speaker 1: it's kind of hard to get an answer from him. 213 00:13:07,080 --> 00:13:10,559 Speaker 1: You know, there are lots of captured Russian soldiers and 214 00:13:11,240 --> 00:13:15,400 Speaker 1: some people record interviews with them and they say that, oh, yeah, 215 00:13:15,440 --> 00:13:19,719 Speaker 1: we just watched Russian propaganda saying that Ukraine turned into 216 00:13:19,840 --> 00:13:23,120 Speaker 1: our enemy. But they couldn't really explain in a way 217 00:13:23,600 --> 00:13:27,440 Speaker 1: why they would think that Ukraine might attack Russia at 218 00:13:27,480 --> 00:13:30,160 Speaker 1: any point, because Ukraine is much much smaller than Russian 219 00:13:30,480 --> 00:13:34,280 Speaker 1: and has much less resources than Russia has. For Ukrainians, 220 00:13:34,320 --> 00:13:37,679 Speaker 1: it's motivation. In the first days of the war, we 221 00:13:37,760 --> 00:13:40,959 Speaker 1: had such a huge lines to military units as men 222 00:13:41,040 --> 00:13:45,400 Speaker 1: were trying to register and join the army. That it 223 00:13:45,559 --> 00:13:48,880 Speaker 1: just enormous lines, and it was called it was February, 224 00:13:48,880 --> 00:13:51,400 Speaker 1: and people stayed at night to be registered and joined 225 00:13:51,400 --> 00:13:54,199 Speaker 1: the army. So as a result, now the army is 226 00:13:54,240 --> 00:13:58,200 Speaker 1: full of professionals starting from I don't know, from theater 227 00:13:58,400 --> 00:14:02,439 Speaker 1: and bally ending with ten as players and IT specialists, etc. 228 00:14:02,960 --> 00:14:06,040 Speaker 1: But people are motivated, they want to learn. They are 229 00:14:06,080 --> 00:14:08,680 Speaker 1: being trained not only in Ukraine but also by our 230 00:14:08,720 --> 00:14:13,160 Speaker 1: western partners, and they proved themselves to be capable to learn, 231 00:14:13,200 --> 00:14:16,280 Speaker 1: and this obviously makes a much difference as we see 232 00:14:16,360 --> 00:14:19,000 Speaker 1: during the war. So the other thing to remember is that, 233 00:14:19,040 --> 00:14:22,360 Speaker 1: you know, the war began in twenty fourteen, not in 234 00:14:22,360 --> 00:14:26,360 Speaker 1: twenty twenty two, and it began with the annexation of Crimea, 235 00:14:26,360 --> 00:14:30,720 Speaker 1: of course, and then an insurgency which the Russians armed 236 00:14:30,840 --> 00:14:33,640 Speaker 1: and at times sent their own troops in to take 237 00:14:33,720 --> 00:14:36,800 Speaker 1: part in. And you had a quite serious war in 238 00:14:37,160 --> 00:14:42,120 Speaker 1: two fourteen and fifteen, about fourteen thousand people died. And 239 00:14:42,320 --> 00:14:44,280 Speaker 1: you know, then you had a peace settlement which was 240 00:14:44,280 --> 00:14:48,560 Speaker 1: really a ceasefire, and the firing never ceased. So all 241 00:14:48,600 --> 00:14:52,160 Speaker 1: along a you know, a front line. There were trenches, 242 00:14:52,480 --> 00:14:55,920 Speaker 1: you know, opposite each other, artillery being chills being exchanged, 243 00:14:56,440 --> 00:14:59,120 Speaker 1: you know, reconnaissance parties going across the other side to 244 00:14:59,160 --> 00:15:02,640 Speaker 1: get behind the line. So for eight years the Ukrainians 245 00:15:02,720 --> 00:15:06,960 Speaker 1: were preparing. They had had a non existent army, in 246 00:15:07,080 --> 00:15:10,680 Speaker 1: part because through the previous pro Russian government had actually 247 00:15:10,720 --> 00:15:15,160 Speaker 1: dismantled parts of the military. Large arms deposts had been 248 00:15:15,160 --> 00:15:17,240 Speaker 1: blown up over a period of years, so it was 249 00:15:17,320 --> 00:15:21,480 Speaker 1: quite deliberate, and so for eight years they did have 250 00:15:21,560 --> 00:15:25,440 Speaker 1: the chance to rebuild and to train. They were rotating. 251 00:15:26,480 --> 00:15:30,760 Speaker 1: Estimates run from three to five hundred thousand soldiers who 252 00:15:30,840 --> 00:15:35,960 Speaker 1: rotted through the trenches spent six months tours fighting, so 253 00:15:36,040 --> 00:15:39,000 Speaker 1: you had almost half a million people who had direct 254 00:15:39,200 --> 00:15:42,880 Speaker 1: recent experience of fighting. At the same time, they were 255 00:15:42,880 --> 00:15:46,120 Speaker 1: getting training from NATO partners, NATO training and so on, 256 00:15:46,520 --> 00:15:49,040 Speaker 1: and they restructured the armed forces so that they would 257 00:15:49,120 --> 00:15:51,600 Speaker 1: have a more kind of Western style armedforce than The 258 00:15:51,640 --> 00:15:55,240 Speaker 1: critical thing there was that you have a strong non 259 00:15:55,240 --> 00:15:59,280 Speaker 1: commissioned officer corps, the sort of low level officers who 260 00:15:59,280 --> 00:16:03,600 Speaker 1: were very much connection, working very closely with the ordinary troops, 261 00:16:04,160 --> 00:16:07,760 Speaker 1: and they are kind of mentoring force, provide experience, support 262 00:16:07,840 --> 00:16:10,280 Speaker 1: and all that sort of thing, and all of that 263 00:16:10,600 --> 00:16:14,760 Speaker 1: has really helped the Ukrainians more than I think anybody 264 00:16:14,800 --> 00:16:18,160 Speaker 1: thought training could help. But it's helped a lot. And 265 00:16:18,200 --> 00:16:19,600 Speaker 1: I think the second thing I was just going to 266 00:16:19,680 --> 00:16:22,000 Speaker 1: mention that I think has made the difference is the 267 00:16:22,240 --> 00:16:26,720 Speaker 1: use of intelligence. Knowing that they were outgunned at times 268 00:16:26,760 --> 00:16:28,800 Speaker 1: by ten to twelve to one in terms of the 269 00:16:28,800 --> 00:16:32,240 Speaker 1: ampt of artillery shells that were being fired, the Ukrainians 270 00:16:32,320 --> 00:16:35,360 Speaker 1: understood that they had to find a way to make 271 00:16:35,440 --> 00:16:38,160 Speaker 1: every shell count and they have. And there's a number 272 00:16:38,200 --> 00:16:41,920 Speaker 1: of apps and so on at the front line that 273 00:16:42,000 --> 00:16:45,320 Speaker 1: are being used at very sophisticated apps that are being 274 00:16:45,440 --> 00:16:49,800 Speaker 1: used in order to connect drone intelligence and other kinds 275 00:16:49,840 --> 00:16:53,880 Speaker 1: of data and just put it in the hands of 276 00:16:53,920 --> 00:16:57,400 Speaker 1: the people who are actually firing the guns. And these 277 00:16:57,440 --> 00:17:01,960 Speaker 1: apps will calculate for them exactly once they've got the coordinates. 278 00:17:01,960 --> 00:17:05,880 Speaker 1: It will calculate for them exactly what the trajectory of 279 00:17:06,040 --> 00:17:09,080 Speaker 1: the missile should be and how they should aim it. 280 00:17:09,400 --> 00:17:12,880 Speaker 1: And they are simply much much better at hitting a target. 281 00:17:13,920 --> 00:17:24,960 Speaker 1: Our conversation continues after the break, we defeated Russia in 282 00:17:25,040 --> 00:17:31,399 Speaker 1: the battle for minds of the world. We have no 283 00:17:31,640 --> 00:17:37,159 Speaker 1: pr nor should anyone in the world have it. Ukraine's 284 00:17:37,680 --> 00:17:42,719 Speaker 1: gained this victory and it gives us courage, which inspires 285 00:17:43,200 --> 00:17:48,119 Speaker 1: the entire world rous. One person who has been at 286 00:17:48,160 --> 00:17:52,080 Speaker 1: the center of this, of course, is Ukraine's President Zelinski. 287 00:17:52,200 --> 00:17:57,040 Speaker 1: He's become a very visible international figure, testifying before the 288 00:17:57,160 --> 00:18:00,399 Speaker 1: US Congress, going to other capitals to make the case 289 00:18:00,440 --> 00:18:04,080 Speaker 1: why the world must keep its attention and Ukraine must 290 00:18:04,160 --> 00:18:07,920 Speaker 1: keep delivering arms and other aid to Ukraine. How important 291 00:18:08,040 --> 00:18:14,480 Speaker 1: has President Zelinsky been in maintaining Ukraine's unity at home 292 00:18:14,640 --> 00:18:20,080 Speaker 1: and also its ability to keep fighting well, incredibly important 293 00:18:20,080 --> 00:18:23,240 Speaker 1: and arguably he's been just the president that Ukraine needed 294 00:18:23,400 --> 00:18:26,000 Speaker 1: in this moment. And it's funny thinking about the run 295 00:18:26,080 --> 00:18:28,560 Speaker 1: up to the war now and away, because people tended 296 00:18:28,640 --> 00:18:31,159 Speaker 1: to dismiss him very much as someone who didn't have 297 00:18:31,240 --> 00:18:34,600 Speaker 1: the heft to be a president during wartime, you know, 298 00:18:34,680 --> 00:18:36,159 Speaker 1: of course, there was all this talk that he might 299 00:18:36,200 --> 00:18:39,800 Speaker 1: even leave the country, and famously he declined the offer 300 00:18:40,240 --> 00:18:42,600 Speaker 1: to do so. But you can see that his skills 301 00:18:42,880 --> 00:18:46,679 Speaker 1: at presenting a message, it's selling in fact, Ukraine's cause 302 00:18:46,800 --> 00:18:50,720 Speaker 1: in this moment relentlessly on social media videos, all of 303 00:18:50,800 --> 00:18:53,840 Speaker 1: it appearing speeches at parliaments, you know, you name it, 304 00:18:53,880 --> 00:18:56,399 Speaker 1: he's done it. He's done anything that he can to 305 00:18:56,480 --> 00:18:59,719 Speaker 1: remind people that this war is going on, that Ukraine 306 00:18:59,800 --> 00:19:03,200 Speaker 1: needs more money and more weapons to keep fighting, and 307 00:19:03,240 --> 00:19:06,320 Speaker 1: no event is too small or too large to do that. 308 00:19:06,400 --> 00:19:09,440 Speaker 1: And you could say arguably that's made a tremendous difference 309 00:19:09,640 --> 00:19:13,439 Speaker 1: in keeping the world's attention on Ukraine in rallying cause 310 00:19:13,480 --> 00:19:16,440 Speaker 1: for money and weapons. If you look at other conflicts 311 00:19:16,520 --> 00:19:19,040 Speaker 1: around the world that have gone on for a period 312 00:19:19,040 --> 00:19:21,000 Speaker 1: of time, you can see that there's been a real 313 00:19:21,080 --> 00:19:24,840 Speaker 1: challenge to maintain that kind of momentum, and perhaps that 314 00:19:24,920 --> 00:19:27,679 Speaker 1: challenge will come for Ukraine if this war goes on 315 00:19:27,760 --> 00:19:30,760 Speaker 1: for another year or beyond. But you can see some 316 00:19:30,840 --> 00:19:34,080 Speaker 1: of that concern creeping in. Potentially now you've seen President 317 00:19:34,119 --> 00:19:38,680 Speaker 1: Zelinsky leaving Ukraine more regularly, coming directly to the rest 318 00:19:38,720 --> 00:19:41,720 Speaker 1: of the world to spread that message. Kind of saw 319 00:19:41,760 --> 00:19:44,160 Speaker 1: that very clearly in his recent trip to the UK 320 00:19:44,800 --> 00:19:48,679 Speaker 1: and to France and to Brussels, very much perhaps recognizing 321 00:19:48,720 --> 00:19:50,640 Speaker 1: that this is a moment where he needs to work 322 00:19:50,680 --> 00:19:53,159 Speaker 1: even harder to do that. So in terms of just 323 00:19:53,240 --> 00:19:56,360 Speaker 1: being sort of the front facing element of the war 324 00:19:56,400 --> 00:19:59,800 Speaker 1: for Ukraine. He's really really done his job. How much 325 00:20:00,000 --> 00:20:02,080 Speaker 1: he has sort of been important behind the scenes in 326 00:20:02,160 --> 00:20:05,480 Speaker 1: terms of directing the war effort and someone is less clear, 327 00:20:05,520 --> 00:20:08,280 Speaker 1: and perhaps dash Roma might have views on that. But 328 00:20:08,560 --> 00:20:10,480 Speaker 1: if he had just had to do one thing in 329 00:20:10,560 --> 00:20:12,959 Speaker 1: this moment, and that's simply to really sort of like 330 00:20:13,080 --> 00:20:16,080 Speaker 1: keep Ukraine front and center for the world, then certainly 331 00:20:16,080 --> 00:20:20,520 Speaker 1: he's delivered Rossio exactly right. He did the right thing. 332 00:20:20,560 --> 00:20:23,959 Speaker 1: He concentrated on delivering the message to the world, and 333 00:20:24,000 --> 00:20:26,480 Speaker 1: he's very good at that because his background is showbiz. 334 00:20:26,520 --> 00:20:29,119 Speaker 1: He knows how to do videos, he knows how to 335 00:20:29,600 --> 00:20:33,639 Speaker 1: reach the audience. He has an excellent speechwriter, so the 336 00:20:34,040 --> 00:20:39,280 Speaker 1: you know, words really touch people. And locally he doesn't 337 00:20:39,320 --> 00:20:44,000 Speaker 1: really at least was not really involved in planning operations. 338 00:20:44,040 --> 00:20:48,119 Speaker 1: He picked up a very capable top army chief and 339 00:20:48,240 --> 00:20:50,679 Speaker 1: the guy is doing his job and he not just 340 00:20:50,760 --> 00:20:53,960 Speaker 1: the Lenski himself doesn't interfere in that because, as he said, 341 00:20:54,200 --> 00:20:59,440 Speaker 1: it's up to military people to decide operations. Mark These 342 00:20:59,440 --> 00:21:02,920 Speaker 1: appeals President Zelinski has made around the world have been 343 00:21:04,119 --> 00:21:08,000 Speaker 1: met with a lot of aid from the US, from Europe, 344 00:21:08,000 --> 00:21:10,760 Speaker 1: from other parts of the world, providing a lot of 345 00:21:11,040 --> 00:21:16,119 Speaker 1: munitions and some sophisticated weaponry will. US and Germany are 346 00:21:16,119 --> 00:21:19,280 Speaker 1: poised to announce that they will provide main battle tanks 347 00:21:19,280 --> 00:21:23,520 Speaker 1: to Ukraine. Germany's Defense minister says chance Schultz is talking 348 00:21:23,560 --> 00:21:27,600 Speaker 1: to his allies about supplying keep with the Leopard tank. Today, 349 00:21:27,680 --> 00:21:30,959 Speaker 1: I'm announcing that the United States will be sending thirty 350 00:21:30,960 --> 00:21:35,400 Speaker 1: one Abram tanks to Ukraine, the equivalent of one Ukrainian battalion. 351 00:21:35,720 --> 00:21:38,080 Speaker 1: And that's the conversation that we've been having most recently 352 00:21:38,400 --> 00:21:40,919 Speaker 1: about how can we provide air defense to protect the 353 00:21:41,000 --> 00:21:44,000 Speaker 1: Ukrainian population. That has been the thing that we've talked about, 354 00:21:44,000 --> 00:21:47,040 Speaker 1: probably most in all of our conversations, which is why 355 00:21:47,080 --> 00:21:51,360 Speaker 1: we've provided thousands of surface to air missiles and air 356 00:21:51,400 --> 00:21:53,680 Speaker 1: defense systems, and we'll continue to do so, and more 357 00:21:53,720 --> 00:21:56,199 Speaker 1: are coming over the next few weeks. I think in 358 00:21:56,240 --> 00:21:58,600 Speaker 1: the beginning of the ward, there was some question about 359 00:21:58,640 --> 00:22:01,919 Speaker 1: whether the West would give as much as it has 360 00:22:02,080 --> 00:22:05,639 Speaker 1: for fear of provoking Russia into a wider war. And 361 00:22:05,720 --> 00:22:10,120 Speaker 1: yet as it's gone and the West has really stepped up. Certainly, 362 00:22:10,160 --> 00:22:15,000 Speaker 1: I before this war began and certainly present putin the 363 00:22:15,040 --> 00:22:20,480 Speaker 1: expectation was that Europe would not really be as united 364 00:22:20,560 --> 00:22:23,040 Speaker 1: or determined as it has been, and that it couldn't 365 00:22:23,119 --> 00:22:26,440 Speaker 1: last very long. The record, you know, in the response 366 00:22:26,440 --> 00:22:29,200 Speaker 1: to Crimea, the response to the fighting in Georgia in 367 00:22:29,240 --> 00:22:31,840 Speaker 1: two thousand and eight was not good in that sense. 368 00:22:32,320 --> 00:22:35,240 Speaker 1: You know, I'm very strung that the perspective is different. 369 00:22:35,520 --> 00:22:37,480 Speaker 1: So the first thing to remember is this is a 370 00:22:37,600 --> 00:22:40,720 Speaker 1: high intensity war that we haven't seen since World War Two, 371 00:22:41,480 --> 00:22:44,399 Speaker 1: and that you know, those kinds of wars they require 372 00:22:44,720 --> 00:22:51,120 Speaker 1: just mass mobilization of economic resources, people, etc. And so 373 00:22:51,359 --> 00:22:54,680 Speaker 1: seen from Kiev, you know, there's a lot of gratitude 374 00:22:54,760 --> 00:22:57,480 Speaker 1: about the weapons that have come, a complete understanding that 375 00:22:57,560 --> 00:23:00,520 Speaker 1: without them they wouldn't really have been able to survive, 376 00:23:00,640 --> 00:23:03,159 Speaker 1: certainly wouldn't be able to think about whether they can 377 00:23:03,200 --> 00:23:07,160 Speaker 1: take the territory back. But at the same time real 378 00:23:07,720 --> 00:23:11,720 Speaker 1: failure to understand why it always takes so long, that 379 00:23:11,840 --> 00:23:15,800 Speaker 1: it is this long, ratcheted process where you begin with 380 00:23:16,000 --> 00:23:19,560 Speaker 1: you know, shoulder held anti tank missiles, and then it 381 00:23:19,600 --> 00:23:22,480 Speaker 1: takes a while before you get to you know, bigger artillery, 382 00:23:22,520 --> 00:23:25,880 Speaker 1: even though it's very clear that the Ukrainians desperately need 383 00:23:26,200 --> 00:23:28,480 Speaker 1: the big artillery, and then it takes a while before 384 00:23:28,520 --> 00:23:30,959 Speaker 1: you get to you know, the next thing, you know, 385 00:23:31,000 --> 00:23:34,000 Speaker 1: to the big air defense or to the tanks, and 386 00:23:34,080 --> 00:23:36,399 Speaker 1: now of course they're you know, sort of pressing for jets. 387 00:23:36,400 --> 00:23:39,000 Speaker 1: And so from that point of view, if they had 388 00:23:39,040 --> 00:23:43,679 Speaker 1: been given everything they've been given right away, then you know, 389 00:23:43,760 --> 00:23:48,080 Speaker 1: the outcome might have been much better for Ukraine. This 390 00:23:48,160 --> 00:23:51,639 Speaker 1: question of tanks and jets has been going on for 391 00:23:51,800 --> 00:23:55,440 Speaker 1: quite some time now. At first the Germany, poland other 392 00:23:55,560 --> 00:23:59,040 Speaker 1: nations were hesitant to give over tanks, and now as 393 00:23:59,119 --> 00:24:02,120 Speaker 1: Mark describes that sort of softening and those are moving 394 00:24:02,240 --> 00:24:06,800 Speaker 1: toward Ukraine. Jets seem to be a real sticking point though. 395 00:24:06,840 --> 00:24:12,159 Speaker 1: Do you think ultimately that Ukraine will receive jets from 396 00:24:12,200 --> 00:24:15,280 Speaker 1: Western militaries. You know, more and more countries are sort 397 00:24:15,280 --> 00:24:17,680 Speaker 1: of looking at how much they've sent in and also going, well, wow, 398 00:24:17,720 --> 00:24:21,880 Speaker 1: we're running really low ourselves, and defense companies just can't 399 00:24:21,920 --> 00:24:23,760 Speaker 1: sort of turn on a switch to the factory and 400 00:24:23,880 --> 00:24:27,480 Speaker 1: magically produce a whole lot of extra equipment with great speed. 401 00:24:27,520 --> 00:24:30,199 Speaker 1: That's why we're seeing talk about a common fun potentially 402 00:24:30,280 --> 00:24:32,760 Speaker 1: for the EU for ammunition, But that would be to 403 00:24:32,800 --> 00:24:35,280 Speaker 1: sort of like get companies to start making ammunition in 404 00:24:35,320 --> 00:24:37,840 Speaker 1: six to nine months from now and in a lot 405 00:24:37,880 --> 00:24:41,400 Speaker 1: of countries have got stockpiles that have been depleted, and 406 00:24:41,840 --> 00:24:43,320 Speaker 1: you know, there's a point where they have to sort 407 00:24:43,320 --> 00:24:46,040 Speaker 1: of say, well, we can't actually send anymore. And of 408 00:24:46,080 --> 00:24:48,960 Speaker 1: course they haven't said modern fighter jets, but as they 409 00:24:48,960 --> 00:24:51,159 Speaker 1: don't necessarily have a lot of them to start with, 410 00:24:51,280 --> 00:24:53,320 Speaker 1: and countries like Poland so well, we can't send them 411 00:24:53,359 --> 00:24:56,560 Speaker 1: unless we had a guarantee from the US of replacement, 412 00:24:56,680 --> 00:25:00,080 Speaker 1: and there's no certainty about that either. And if you 413 00:25:00,200 --> 00:25:02,440 Speaker 1: look at the language around fighter jets, yeah, they're sort 414 00:25:02,440 --> 00:25:04,159 Speaker 1: of saying, well, we could look at it. Maybe in 415 00:25:04,240 --> 00:25:07,720 Speaker 1: the longer term, there could be an assessment about it, 416 00:25:07,760 --> 00:25:11,000 Speaker 1: but the language on that remains really really cautious and 417 00:25:11,080 --> 00:25:14,040 Speaker 1: suggests that that's really quite a large hurdle to get over. 418 00:25:15,320 --> 00:25:25,440 Speaker 1: We'll be right back after when you're fighting. Ukraine is 419 00:25:25,480 --> 00:25:29,360 Speaker 1: looking at another year ahead. I don't think anyone expects 420 00:25:29,400 --> 00:25:33,440 Speaker 1: this war to be over anytime soon. What can we 421 00:25:33,520 --> 00:25:37,080 Speaker 1: expect in the months ahead, Well, the question is is 422 00:25:37,160 --> 00:25:40,080 Speaker 1: Russia really going to launch a major offensive or has 423 00:25:40,119 --> 00:25:43,040 Speaker 1: it already started as Mark talked about earlier, And is 424 00:25:43,080 --> 00:25:45,879 Speaker 1: it not sort of one big shebang moment, or is 425 00:25:45,920 --> 00:25:49,159 Speaker 1: it just sort of a gradual increase in intensity in 426 00:25:49,200 --> 00:25:52,520 Speaker 1: the coming months, because Russia obviously sees a window here 427 00:25:52,560 --> 00:25:55,360 Speaker 1: before Ukraine does start to get some of that more 428 00:25:55,359 --> 00:25:58,520 Speaker 1: advanced weaponry, which is sort of months away, so now 429 00:25:58,600 --> 00:26:01,800 Speaker 1: would be the time to try and gain more territory 430 00:26:01,920 --> 00:26:05,200 Speaker 1: rather in the East. And that's a difficult time potentially 431 00:26:05,320 --> 00:26:08,320 Speaker 1: for Ukraine in the coming weeks to be able to 432 00:26:08,320 --> 00:26:10,760 Speaker 1: sort of hold that back, And that's perhaps reflected in 433 00:26:10,760 --> 00:26:13,080 Speaker 1: the sense of how people are feeling that Mark and 434 00:26:13,119 --> 00:26:16,560 Speaker 1: Dasha were talking about earlier in Kiev at the moment, 435 00:26:16,880 --> 00:26:20,359 Speaker 1: because any kind of full offensive by Ukraine is probably 436 00:26:20,400 --> 00:26:23,119 Speaker 1: some months away and more likely to come in the South. 437 00:26:23,320 --> 00:26:25,919 Speaker 1: But as you say that, beyond that we just headed 438 00:26:25,920 --> 00:26:28,359 Speaker 1: for the reality that a war that will go on 439 00:26:28,480 --> 00:26:32,600 Speaker 1: for another year or more even possibly three four years, 440 00:26:32,880 --> 00:26:35,199 Speaker 1: does it turn into a grinding conflict just in the 441 00:26:35,240 --> 00:26:38,680 Speaker 1: East and the South. And the challenge there for Ukraine 442 00:26:38,680 --> 00:26:43,040 Speaker 1: obviously is again keeping momentum for the world on its 443 00:26:43,080 --> 00:26:46,280 Speaker 1: plight there and supporting its military or do people sort 444 00:26:46,280 --> 00:26:48,919 Speaker 1: of get to the point where that fatigue does set in. 445 00:26:49,280 --> 00:26:52,160 Speaker 1: So it's probably quite a difficult time ahead for Ukraine potentially, 446 00:26:52,200 --> 00:26:56,919 Speaker 1: and all of that about from this situation that is 447 00:26:57,000 --> 00:27:00,200 Speaker 1: now more challenging. In the east. Ukraine launched, though to 448 00:27:00,960 --> 00:27:05,640 Speaker 1: very successful country offensive operations back last year, because there 449 00:27:05,720 --> 00:27:09,280 Speaker 1: was also an element of surprise, they kind of just 450 00:27:09,600 --> 00:27:13,280 Speaker 1: unexpectedly for Russia, launched it in the north of the 451 00:27:13,320 --> 00:27:16,200 Speaker 1: country and then in the south. Now it's kind of 452 00:27:16,320 --> 00:27:20,680 Speaker 1: options are much more limited, and of course Russians are 453 00:27:20,840 --> 00:27:24,600 Speaker 1: preparing for that for any possible Ukrainian contrafensive. This is 454 00:27:24,640 --> 00:27:26,320 Speaker 1: on one side. On the other side, there is a 455 00:27:26,400 --> 00:27:31,080 Speaker 1: question of economy. Last year, obviously there was some you know, 456 00:27:32,240 --> 00:27:36,159 Speaker 1: some stuff left from the previous years. You know, this year, 457 00:27:36,200 --> 00:27:38,679 Speaker 1: at least from what I hear from companies, it's going 458 00:27:38,720 --> 00:27:42,840 Speaker 1: to be more difficult for them to operate. Plus it's 459 00:27:43,160 --> 00:27:45,760 Speaker 1: unclear what's gonna happen with the world economy. Obviously it 460 00:27:45,760 --> 00:27:49,119 Speaker 1: has an impact here and also a very important part 461 00:27:49,160 --> 00:27:53,200 Speaker 1: of Ukraine's if you want rebuilding after the war. There's 462 00:27:53,200 --> 00:27:56,560 Speaker 1: a question of for immigration, whether people who left the country, 463 00:27:56,640 --> 00:28:00,439 Speaker 1: those were mainly women with kids. They fled the country 464 00:28:00,560 --> 00:28:04,360 Speaker 1: last year. Many of them already found jobs there. So 465 00:28:04,480 --> 00:28:07,000 Speaker 1: once the war is over, the question is whether people 466 00:28:07,040 --> 00:28:10,760 Speaker 1: would come back or rather men who are now prohibited 467 00:28:10,760 --> 00:28:13,720 Speaker 1: to live the country and after the war, obviously answer 468 00:28:13,880 --> 00:28:17,160 Speaker 1: all limitations will be lifted out out whether those husbands 469 00:28:17,440 --> 00:28:21,359 Speaker 1: will rather join their families in the European Union, which 470 00:28:21,400 --> 00:28:24,440 Speaker 1: means Ukraine will lose lots of people. Mark, the last 471 00:28:24,440 --> 00:28:26,679 Speaker 1: time you were on this podcast talking about Ukraine, you 472 00:28:26,760 --> 00:28:33,280 Speaker 1: said that Vladimir Putin's own personal investment, his own reputation, 473 00:28:33,840 --> 00:28:38,680 Speaker 1: is so tied up in winning this war that you 474 00:28:38,760 --> 00:28:41,280 Speaker 1: didn't see any way in which he would accept a 475 00:28:41,360 --> 00:28:44,320 Speaker 1: settlement in which he was seen as having lost. Do 476 00:28:44,360 --> 00:28:48,440 Speaker 1: you think that that's more or less true now? Ultimately, 477 00:28:49,160 --> 00:28:54,280 Speaker 1: most conflicts and with some kind of settlement, And at 478 00:28:54,280 --> 00:28:58,600 Speaker 1: the moment it's almost impossible to see any room for 479 00:28:58,680 --> 00:29:02,280 Speaker 1: a settlement because for Ukraine the issue is to recover 480 00:29:02,360 --> 00:29:05,880 Speaker 1: their territory, and for Russia, for President Putin, the issue 481 00:29:06,440 --> 00:29:09,440 Speaker 1: is to gain the territory that he is the next 482 00:29:09,600 --> 00:29:13,360 Speaker 1: because he annexed several provinces, declared that they were now 483 00:29:13,440 --> 00:29:18,520 Speaker 1: part of Russia, and his troops didn't even occupy all 484 00:29:18,560 --> 00:29:21,520 Speaker 1: of them. So you have these two sets of goals 485 00:29:21,560 --> 00:29:25,360 Speaker 1: that are in complete conflict. So it's very, very difficult 486 00:29:25,400 --> 00:29:29,560 Speaker 1: to see how any time soon there can be any 487 00:29:29,600 --> 00:29:32,560 Speaker 1: kind of settlement, neither side has an interest, neither side 488 00:29:33,160 --> 00:29:36,680 Speaker 1: is exhausted that the Ukrainians have, you know, still a 489 00:29:36,760 --> 00:29:40,320 Speaker 1: motivated force, They're still getting armed, and the Russians have 490 00:29:40,640 --> 00:29:43,920 Speaker 1: mobilized and sent you know, several hundred thousand new troops 491 00:29:43,960 --> 00:29:46,520 Speaker 1: to the front. They now have more in Ukraine than 492 00:29:46,560 --> 00:29:48,560 Speaker 1: they had at the beginning of the war. So it 493 00:29:48,640 --> 00:29:52,320 Speaker 1: remains true. And the question always is what can he 494 00:29:52,400 --> 00:29:55,200 Speaker 1: sell it as a victory? And I do think, you know, 495 00:29:55,280 --> 00:29:58,800 Speaker 1: the sort of glimmer of light there is that, in 496 00:29:58,800 --> 00:30:02,040 Speaker 1: the same way that he has been able to control 497 00:30:02,680 --> 00:30:06,400 Speaker 1: the message at home, you know, as far as a 498 00:30:06,520 --> 00:30:10,400 Speaker 1: kind of mendacious way about what's happening in Ukraine, there 499 00:30:10,600 --> 00:30:12,560 Speaker 1: is the glimmer of hope that if he decides that 500 00:30:12,640 --> 00:30:17,200 Speaker 1: he needs to sell something that is objectively a defeat 501 00:30:17,240 --> 00:30:19,480 Speaker 1: as a victory, he may be able to do so. 502 00:30:20,120 --> 00:30:22,880 Speaker 1: But I think that that basic point that he can't 503 00:30:22,920 --> 00:30:27,360 Speaker 1: afford a strong men cannot afford to lose, that remains 504 00:30:27,440 --> 00:30:30,000 Speaker 1: and it's only a question of what losing consists on. 505 00:30:30,840 --> 00:30:35,160 Speaker 1: Dasha Rosmark, thanks so much for talking with me today. 506 00:30:35,160 --> 00:30:39,000 Speaker 1: Thank you, thanks us, thanks for listening to us here 507 00:30:39,080 --> 00:30:42,200 Speaker 1: at the Big Take. It's a daily podcast from Bloomberg 508 00:30:42,280 --> 00:30:45,960 Speaker 1: and iHeartRadio. For more shows from my Heart Radio, visit 509 00:30:46,000 --> 00:30:49,960 Speaker 1: the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you listen, and 510 00:30:50,040 --> 00:30:52,880 Speaker 1: we'd love to hear from you. Email us questions or 511 00:30:52,920 --> 00:30:57,560 Speaker 1: comments to Big Take at Bloomberg dot net. The supervising 512 00:30:57,600 --> 00:31:00,800 Speaker 1: producer of The Big Take is Vicky Bergolina, Our senior 513 00:31:00,840 --> 00:31:05,640 Speaker 1: producer is Catherine Fink. Federica Romannello is our producer. Our 514 00:31:05,680 --> 00:31:10,600 Speaker 1: associate producer is zenib Siddiki. Raphael Mcii is our engineer. 515 00:31:10,880 --> 00:31:14,840 Speaker 1: And our original music was composed by Leo Sidrin. I'm 516 00:31:14,920 --> 00:31:18,560 Speaker 1: west Kosova. We'll be back tomorrow with another Big Take