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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news.

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Speaker 2: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast.

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Speaker 1: Catch us live weekdays at seven am Eastern on Apple

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Speaker 1: CarPlay or Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business app. Listen

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Speaker 1: on demand wherever you get your podcasts, or watch us

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Speaker 1: live on YouTube.

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Speaker 3: Sebastian Page joining us right now. We have three things

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Speaker 3: to talk about with him, and of course with Tierro.

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Speaker 3: Price had a multi asset chair of asset allocation, and

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Speaker 3: you know that's the focus of the discussion. We got

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Speaker 3: to talk about his Canada so much in the news

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Speaker 3: right now. But I got to put this book up.

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Speaker 3: This is out in a couple of weeks, This book

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Speaker 3: of the Month Club Readers Digest, The Psychology of Leadership

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Speaker 3: coming out Bonus Round, Weekend Readable. It's got the right

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Speaker 3: length to it. But what completely separates this book is

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Speaker 3: you have you know, we're about the book of the year.

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Speaker 3: Maybe it is, maybe it's not even read it yet.

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Speaker 3: You have the forward of the year. How did you

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Speaker 3: get Larry kaulp to give you the forward to your book?

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Speaker 4: Nine enough to accept to participate. Larry was on the

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Speaker 4: board of directors for a while for Tiro Price and

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Speaker 4: I use every connection I could get to try to

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Speaker 4: get to him to ask him for this favor.

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Speaker 3: What are the cast practices of mister Caulp at Tiro Price,

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Speaker 3: at danaher in the Miracle? He's wrought a generous electric

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Speaker 3: What are the cult best practices?

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Speaker 4: He's really into the Japanese approach to quality and kaisen,

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Speaker 4: and he's really into listening to the customer. I remember, Tom,

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Speaker 4: I had to present to the board once about my

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Speaker 4: business and the stories in my book. But I presented

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Speaker 4: a range in terms of my growth forecast for our business,

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Speaker 4: and the range was pretty wide. Let Reculp would not

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Speaker 4: have it. They said, what is your goal? So there's

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Speaker 4: a lot of discussions around that.

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Speaker 3: Our goal right now is mental stability with their portfolios.

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Speaker 3: Least is medicaid. But what do we do with this

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Speaker 3: uncertainty out there right now? How do you approach that?

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Speaker 4: We're not panicking, Tom, I think market's the economy. I

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Speaker 4: think we're going to be okay. We're looking at a

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Speaker 4: slow down. The data for the consumer is showing that

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Speaker 4: things are slowing down and the markets is selling off.

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Speaker 4: But it's not just because of tariff headlines. It's because

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Speaker 4: of the growth slow down. It's because we had extremely

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Speaker 4: high valuations going into this, and yes, the word of

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Speaker 4: the hour uncertainty. So it's a combination of all these things.

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Speaker 4: But I don't think we're getting a recession about the consumer.

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Speaker 5: We've seen some University of Michigan data last week which

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Speaker 5: is a little concerning. We had the airlines take their

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Speaker 5: guidance down, forward guidance down with a big broad departments

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Speaker 5: or like coals take its guidance down.

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Speaker 6: How do you think the consumer's doing these days?

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Speaker 4: So I don't like the last two retail sales prints.

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Speaker 4: The last one was positive but still below expectation. The

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Speaker 4: one before was revised minus one point two percent month

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Speaker 4: over month. Those two data points are not good and

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Speaker 4: they're showing some slowdown overall. The economic surprise index in

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Speaker 4: the US is in negative territory, but I'm not counting

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Speaker 4: the US consumer out yet. Unemployment at four point one

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Speaker 4: percent is a low number for unemployment. Wages for the

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Speaker 4: last twelve months are growing at four percent and inflation's

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Speaker 4: at three percent. This means that wages are growing faster

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Speaker 4: than inflation. And I know it's completely it's really not

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Speaker 4: distributed equally, but the aggregate shape of the consumer is

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Speaker 4: quite good. The level of household debt to GDP is

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Speaker 4: nearer twenty year low. Again, not every not every segment

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Speaker 4: of the consumer is healthy, but in aggregate it's I'm

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Speaker 4: not counting it out.

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Speaker 5: You had a global multi asset, so you can go anywhere.

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Speaker 5: Where are you going these days? What are you talking

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Speaker 5: to your portfolio managers about?

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Speaker 4: You know, going into this, we had been adding to

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Speaker 4: europe to international stocks in the on the value side.

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Speaker 4: It turns out right now it's maybe, aside from gold,

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Speaker 4: the best performing asset last year. Today it's up thirteen percent,

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Speaker 4: and we're likely to continue to add. European banks, for example,

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Speaker 4: used to trade at two times their book value prior

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Speaker 4: to the global financial crisis. They're at one time there

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Speaker 4: are but one ex their book value. So we think

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Speaker 4: there are opportunities there with positive interest rates.

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Speaker 5: So as we think about these, a ten percent pullback,

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Speaker 5: let's called an eight percent pull back in the SMP,

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Speaker 5: maybe a twelve percent pull back in Nasdaq.

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Speaker 6: Buying opportunity buy the dip, be caut what are we

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Speaker 6: doing here?

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Speaker 4: So we've been de risking, but we're at kind of

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Speaker 4: neutral on risk assets right now. We're waiting it out.

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Speaker 4: If the vis goes to thirty and stock sell off

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Speaker 4: fifteen to twenty percent, we're more likely to buy than

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Speaker 4: to sell. So that's what we're kind of watching right now.

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Speaker 6: I'm kind of hearing that a lot.

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Speaker 5: Like you know, we had Stewart Kaiser from City Group

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Speaker 5: on from the trading desk there at City. He's not

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Speaker 5: buying here, but he's like, we're close. I mean, but

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Speaker 5: to me, it seems like it's kind of all about

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Speaker 5: the earnings out there. If the consumer's pulling back, if

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Speaker 5: there's a lot of uncertainty out there, I'm not sure

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Speaker 5: I can depend upon those earnings numbers that I see

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Speaker 5: out there on the street.

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Speaker 4: You know, it's interesting to compare the US with Europe

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Speaker 4: right now, because the earnings estimates in Europe are trending

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Speaker 4: up and the surprises are looking good, better than in

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Speaker 4: the US. And then you look at profitability of European stocks,

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Speaker 4: it's on the way up, whereas in the US it's stabilized.

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Speaker 3: It's stabilized, Like we got a couple things to do here.

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Speaker 3: But Sebastian page to ask this right now, there's so

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Speaker 3: much uncertainty out there. All my radars says, that's a

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Speaker 3: massive opportunity to find the opportunity that comes out of

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Speaker 3: any given uncertainty.

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Speaker 4: Uncertainty up stocks down usually and historically when they're hispanic

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Speaker 4: in the market. I know, Tom, you like to watch

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Speaker 4: the vis When the vix hits thirty, historically, it's a

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Speaker 4: good time. It's a good time to look for opportunities.

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Speaker 4: We like non US value stocks because you have evaluation advantage,

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Speaker 4: you have short term momentum, and that short term momentum

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Speaker 4: is supported by fundamentals.

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Speaker 3: Okay, so you knew Paul years ago that you looked

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Speaker 3: at Canton, which was the best school in northern New York.

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Speaker 3: You can literally hear the Saint Lawrence River whatever up

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Speaker 3: north there, or Clarkson, which is sology one hockey and

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Speaker 3: they'd have six ringers from Quebec on there. You don't

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Speaker 3: know those folks with Sebastian Page looks like that left

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Speaker 3: wing we hated on the other team. He spoke perfect English,

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Speaker 3: but when he stepped on the ice he only speaks French.

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Speaker 3: So you're even more intimidated by him. You grew up

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Speaker 3: in the heart of it. You go from Victoriaville down

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Speaker 3: through Windsor to the land of hockey stick Sherbert Quebec.

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Speaker 3: Is your Quebec going to be on board with Mark

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Speaker 3: Kearney in this battle with the United States.

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Speaker 4: You know, I started playing ice hockey at the age

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Speaker 4: of five.

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Speaker 7: That how you have to do that in Quebec.

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Speaker 4: I'm kind of conflicted because have dual citizenship US and Canada.

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Speaker 4: I think things were normalized. We just have to be patient,

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Speaker 4: wait some of it out and just go along with

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Speaker 4: a good faith negotiation. And again I'm kind of my

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Speaker 4: heart is in both places.

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Speaker 3: So what do you do in the hockey game here?

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Speaker 3: The other day US Canada? It was great?

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Speaker 4: Well there, yeah, well you know when I swear and

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Speaker 4: I watched hockey, I swear in French.

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Speaker 6: Yes, there you go.

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Speaker 3: Well in French when I missed, when I missed my cue,

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Speaker 3: I got asked, we got to get the Jane Foley here.

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Speaker 3: But this is too important. Victoriaville CCM five stripe or

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Speaker 3: did you go with the local Sherwood?

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Speaker 4: The local Sherwood. Yeah, I had the best hockey stole.

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Speaker 3: I had the Victoriaville toe curve. It was the only

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Speaker 3: thing I'd pay a lot of money.

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Speaker 4: Now, yeah, we used to heat it up. He curved

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Speaker 4: exactly with the writing.

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Speaker 3: You get the blowtorch out here, your mother would be

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Speaker 3: like toll part up the basement. Sebastian. Jane Foley's in

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Speaker 3: London going what did we got? Stay with talking about

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Speaker 3: Sebastian Page, Thank you so much. Book The Psychology a

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Speaker 3: Leadership is the book. This will be out so you

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Speaker 3: can't get it today. Lawrence Kopp with the introduction to

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Speaker 3: the Psychology of Leadership.

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Speaker 2: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast.

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Speaker 1: Listen live each weekday starting at seven am Eastern on

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Speaker 1: Apple Corplay.

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Speaker 8: And Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business app.

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Speaker 1: flagship New York station, Just say Alexa Play Bloomberg eleven thirty.

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Speaker 3: Jane Foley, she is an Robert Bank. We really appreciate

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Speaker 3: her coming on on short notice. I don't want to

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Speaker 3: do you know, international relations bit Jane Foley on Turkish

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Speaker 3: Lira out two big figures thirty six to thirty eight.

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Speaker 3: But it's destabilizing within an emerging market disaster, idiosyncratic disaster.

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Speaker 3: What does it signal that the people of Turkey to

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Speaker 3: see such an abrupt weakening.

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Speaker 9: Well, of course this is related again to the idea

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Speaker 9: that Ergon is reassearching a more authority rule. Certainly over

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Speaker 9: the last few weeks I suppose that there has been

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Speaker 9: a lead up to this, not a huge surprise, but

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Speaker 9: of course Erigon needs to have an early presidential election

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Speaker 9: if he wants to win again, and it looks as

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Speaker 9: if he's taken out some of his main opposition. From

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Speaker 9: the markets point of view, of course, there is a

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Speaker 9: fear that this could be at learned to unorthodox policies.

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Speaker 9: But of course for Europe there's something else as well,

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Speaker 9: and this is all related back to Turkey's want potentially

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Speaker 9: to become a member of the EU, but also what

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Speaker 9: we've been seeing this year in terms of NATO, Europe

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Speaker 9: of course having to step up in a much bigger

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Speaker 9: way for its own defense, and Turkey putting out there

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Speaker 9: the possibility that it, with its second largest army within NATO,

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Speaker 9: could play a greater function in that defense if perhaps

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Speaker 9: it had a little bit more power within the EU.

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Speaker 9: So that is something which I think has created more

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Speaker 9: uncertainty in politics in Europe.

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Speaker 3: Pass has enough talk on Turkey. Paul wants to know

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Speaker 3: what the euro is going to do for travels this summer.

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Speaker 3: Are we going to actually model out of euro to

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Speaker 3: one fifteen stronger.

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Speaker 9: Euro Well, we've got one twelve as our.

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Speaker 7: Cancel that exactly.

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Speaker 9: But you know, I would say that, you know, you know,

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Speaker 9: when you know, with your previous guess you were talking

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Speaker 9: about US stocks, I think you know, to put it

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Speaker 9: in context, you know, one of the biggest changes for

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Speaker 9: the markets this year has been the news regarding German

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Speaker 9: you know, fiscal policy, and that the movement higher in

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Speaker 9: terms of GDP that we've seen for some German big

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Speaker 9: forecasters now not for this year, but for next year

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Speaker 9: and the year after. That's a real sea change for Europe.

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Speaker 9: And of course we've seen a big sea change in

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Speaker 9: China too, and that of course with deep seat but

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Speaker 9: also the BYD battery system that we've heard about this

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Speaker 9: week too for for autos, and I think these two

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Speaker 9: things are really created, you know, a lot of change

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Speaker 9: in terms of what investors are looking at in terms

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Speaker 9: of investment opportunities. Last year it seemed to be just

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Speaker 9: about the US. Now people are thinking, you know, did

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Speaker 9: I overlook Europe? Did I overlook China? You know, there

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Speaker 9: are opportunities there in which I didn't realize were potentially

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Speaker 9: their last year. So this is this is really significant

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Speaker 9: and that is why you know, the europe is the

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Speaker 9: euro is looking a lot better, even though some of

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Speaker 9: that money may not be be spent immediately, it is

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Speaker 9: coming in Germany and that's a huge difference.

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Speaker 7: Pound.

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Speaker 5: Sterling's had a nice kind of run here this year

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Speaker 5: as well. Here what's driving.

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Speaker 7: That jain and kind of how do you think about

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Speaker 7: that going forward?

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Speaker 9: Well, you know, the cable certainly had a jitter's right

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Speaker 9: at the beginning of the year, partly related of course

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Speaker 9: to US eels dragging guilt eels high, but also the

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Speaker 9: poor growth outlook which doesn't look good for government finances,

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Speaker 9: which of course the strainer in the UK. Now cable

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Speaker 9: has gone higher since then, but that's largely related to

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Speaker 9: the weakness of the dollar. To be honest, I think

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Speaker 9: the euros story has meant that Sterling is going to

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Speaker 9: struggle now to win more ground back against the euro.

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Speaker 9: But there is a statement, a budget statement to the

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Speaker 9: spring statement, I should say, on March the twenty six

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Speaker 9: and the government really going to have to come back

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Speaker 9: on spending in order to play by its fiscal rules.

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Speaker 9: But you know, I think ster is out of the

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Speaker 9: limelight that the news has been so much about Germany

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Speaker 9: within Europe this year.

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Speaker 3: Jane Foley on short notice, we really appreciate a team surveillance.

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Speaker 3: Appreciate your effort. This morning with Rabobank Jane Foley in London.

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Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Catch us live

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Speaker 1: weekday afternoons from seven to ten am Eastern Listen on

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Speaker 1: Applecarplay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business app, or

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Speaker 1: watch us live on YouTube.

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Speaker 5: Our next guest Joints is sar Dean, currenty CEO and

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Speaker 5: founder of Macro Risk Advisors.

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Speaker 6: What's going on with gold? I mean I get it

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Speaker 6: safe haven kind of thing, but is something else going

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Speaker 6: on here?

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Speaker 7: I think there's a number of things.

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Speaker 10: I mean, first sort of stepping back and thinking about

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Speaker 10: this idea of diversification and you know, it's a time

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Speaker 10: honored pursuit in markets.

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Speaker 7: And it's it's elusive.

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Speaker 10: And what I mean by that is you can try

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Speaker 10: to pick stocks that zig and zag with one another,

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Speaker 10: but it turns out that when there is a risk off,

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Speaker 10: that's when correlations, you know, really rise. So you have

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Speaker 10: got to find assets that are just unlike equities. And

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Speaker 10: what I would say is gold is truly unlike stocks.

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Speaker 10: If I look at the last twenty odd years of

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Speaker 10: both returns and correlations in the S and P and gold,

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Speaker 10: the realized correlation of daily returns is five percent.

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Speaker 7: That is absurdly low.

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Speaker 10: And you just can't find something like that in the

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Speaker 10: equity market. If you just chose even two random stocks,

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Speaker 10: you're going to get correlations in the forty to seventy percent.

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Speaker 10: So gold, first and foremost is a diversifier. And second

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Speaker 10: it's a limited supply asset, and I think that's critical

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Speaker 10: as well.

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Speaker 7: An asset that does not have limited supply is.

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Speaker 10: Treasuries, right where a wash in treasuries And I think

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Speaker 10: right now you want to find those assets that are disciplined,

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Speaker 10: and gold is a disciplined asset, and that there's just

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Speaker 10: not a supplier of it.

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Speaker 3: I want to come back to gold. But and this

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Speaker 3: is too important a question. Is persistent free cash flow

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Speaker 3: a scarce item right now?

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Speaker 10: I think in some ways yes, I would say that

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Speaker 10: as well. The market, of course, has been pricing this

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Speaker 10: gigantic capex spend growth. Growth in capex has obviously been

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Speaker 10: a big part of what's empowered the MAG seven. You know,

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Speaker 10: compare compare the sort of top of the S and

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Speaker 10: P the MAG seven to where we were twenty five

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Speaker 10: years ago. And you know, just to use this word

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Speaker 10: discipline again, profitability in these companies currently is much higher

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Speaker 10: than it was back then. The PE ratios, while they're high,

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Speaker 10: are much more modest than the Cisco and the Intel,

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Speaker 10: you know, the pe boom that was that was the

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Speaker 10: two thousand. So free cash flow is an important aspect

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Speaker 10: of markets. But I think, you know, right now we're

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Speaker 10: in this period where the markets taking a good look

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Speaker 10: at future earnings and also you know, rerating the the pe.

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Speaker 3: The water's coming out. Who's wearing no clothes as the

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Speaker 3: tide pulls out? Right now? Where's the exposure that could

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Speaker 3: be embarrassing in the next six months.

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Speaker 7: Yeah, I think that it's.

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Speaker 10: No, I don't I don't necessarily think that that's as

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Speaker 10: big an issue. I mean, I think, if anything, folks

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Speaker 10: are excited about the you know, the big change in

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Speaker 10: in debt trajectory, at least potentially in Germany.

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Speaker 7: We'll we'll see how that plays out. I think the question.

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Speaker 10: Around valuations is always going to be an important one.

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Speaker 10: And at some point this US exceptionalism theme got to

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Speaker 10: be I believe, reasonably overdone. You know, when a market

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Speaker 10: outperforms to the extent that the US has. Any allocation

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Speaker 10: to foreign stocks, for example, has proven to be, you know,

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Speaker 10: taking away from your return. And I think people just

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Speaker 10: crowd into a winner, and I think that's where the

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Speaker 10: risk is.

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Speaker 3: Let's talk, Paul. The arcane language of Dean kerrent Vall

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Speaker 3: on Bitcoin and assets related to it. MSTR miners is

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Speaker 3: getting hit hard one month implied on ibbit is just

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Speaker 3: forty seven. And that's what's in English. The rest of

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Speaker 3: it's in Greek. I mean this pro derivative stuff, folks,

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Speaker 3: is it's sort of like in the third season and

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Speaker 3: Game of Thrones. It's, you know, just a little arcane to.

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Speaker 5: Say this loss the rails a little bit. Dean, what

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Speaker 5: are clients doing in terms of this year? In twenty

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Speaker 5: twenty five, we've had of a higher degree of economic

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Speaker 5: policy uncertainty, which has impacted financial markets pretty significantly. What

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Speaker 5: are your clients doing in the derivatives market to try

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Speaker 5: to I guess play that if you will.

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Speaker 10: Yeah, so, I think our major call and our conversations

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Speaker 10: with clients have focused on this idea that the stock

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Speaker 10: market was diversifying itself.

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Speaker 7: In a way that is unsustainable and what do I

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Speaker 7: what do I mean by that?

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Speaker 10: So if we just look at the MAG seven and

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Speaker 10: we look at the way in which its movements are

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Speaker 10: relative to the rest of the market, zigging and zagging,

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Speaker 10: a lot of diversification even within the MAG seven, unsustainable

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Speaker 10: levels of diversification.

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Speaker 7: And what that did was it reduced the overall level of.

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Speaker 10: Volatility at the index level for the for the S

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Speaker 10: and P and so as the Trump administration came in

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Speaker 10: and of course there was a lot of enthusiasm for

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Speaker 10: a pro growth agenda. I think that the stop start

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Speaker 10: of the tariffs has been very, very difficult for folks

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Speaker 10: to handicap.

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Speaker 7: And so you know, earlier this year we really pushed

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Speaker 7: people to say.

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Speaker 10: Okay, look, let's buy some insurance. And you know, insurance

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Speaker 10: is something you have to pay for.

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Speaker 7: It's not free. Nothing, nothing like that is free.

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Speaker 10: But there was an opportunity to do relatively basic trades

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Speaker 10: in the S and P that allowed you to defray

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Speaker 10: your risk for what we thought was a really reasonable cost.

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Speaker 7: That's worked quite well in.

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Speaker 3: Your morning community across the Nation, Good Morning ninety ninety

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Speaker 3: one FM in Washington, Bloomberg eleven three Z on New York,

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Speaker 3: ninety two nine FM in Boston, and all the digital

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Speaker 3: process that we have Good Morning Sirius XM on YouTube

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Speaker 3: as well. Dan current Macro risk Advisors. What are the

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Speaker 3: cross moments tell you you're right about Skew, Folks, here's

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Speaker 3: the Greek one month, twenty five day call ball is

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Speaker 3: up three from a week ago, and twenty five day

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Speaker 3: putball is up four point four. Translate the cross moments,

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Speaker 3: particularly Skew right Now, well.

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Speaker 10: Let's just step back and look at this ten percent

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Speaker 10: drid on that we had, you know, in the S

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Speaker 10: and P. There's only a handful that you can find

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Speaker 10: over the last twenty five years. Some of them are

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Speaker 10: the doozies of the GFC COVID. You have the VIX

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Speaker 10: event in twenty eighteen. This one has been unique in

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Speaker 10: the combination of the speed of it, which has happened

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Speaker 10: over just twenty odd days, but a relatively low level

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Speaker 10: of realized volatility twenty percent realized volatility, and it's really

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Speaker 10: the absence of very large moves. So if I look

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Speaker 10: at my subset of ten percent draw downs. I always

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Speaker 10: see at least two three percent down days in the SMP.

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Speaker 10: My biggest move on this draw down is just two

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Speaker 10: point seven percent. So it's the sequencing of down a percent,

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Speaker 10: down a percent and a half that has led to,

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Speaker 10: you know, a pretty good destruction of wealth at the

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Speaker 10: S and P level. That of course has lifted the VIX,

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Speaker 10: but it's been a controlled demolition, as one client put it,

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Speaker 10: and I think that's a I.

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Speaker 7: Think that's well said.

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Speaker 10: So the cross moments I don't think are flaring in

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Speaker 10: a big way. It's not like we had a VIX

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Speaker 10: of ten that went to thirty. We had a VIX

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Speaker 10: of fourteen or fifteen that climbed its way into the

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Speaker 10: low twenties level. So it's, like I said, very controlled.

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Speaker 10: And I think the handoff here is okay. The pods

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Speaker 10: for the big multi strat hedge funds have had to

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Speaker 10: de risk. That's caused a lot of factor volatility, a.

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Speaker 7: Lot of rotation.

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Speaker 10: But the big handoff now is what is the impact

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Speaker 10: on the real economy. I took real interest in the

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Speaker 10: piece on the Bloomberg terminal yesterday, quoting Morgan Stanley's president

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Speaker 10: saying deal making has really gotten frozen here. Yep, right,

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Speaker 10: So it does feel like corporate America has been stymied

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Speaker 10: by the start.

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Speaker 7: Stop of the tariff negotiations.

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Speaker 5: If I mean again, we've had a straw down the

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Speaker 5: SMP roughly eight percent here, the peak to trough was

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Speaker 5: roughly ten percent. If I want to buy downside protection here,

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Speaker 5: how much more expensive is it today versus a couple

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Speaker 5: months ago.

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Speaker 7: Yeah, certainly.

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Speaker 10: You know they say you can't trade the VIX, and

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Speaker 10: that's true.

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Speaker 7: The VIX is a calculation agent.

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Speaker 10: It sort of dutifully takes in all option prices of

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Speaker 10: the S and P and pops out a number.

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Speaker 7: But really what it represents is the cost of insurance.

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Speaker 10: And so when you move the VICS from fifteen to twenty,

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Speaker 10: you're popping the cost of insurance up kind of thirty

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Speaker 10: percent one month insurance. I like using what they call

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Speaker 10: put spreads, which is what I would call a modified

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Speaker 10: insurance policy. If the market truly crashes, that put spread

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Speaker 10: is going to get me some insurance back. I'm going

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Speaker 10: to get paid back to some extent, but not a

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Speaker 10: GFC style insurance right where I would have needed a

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Speaker 10: gigantic amount of insurance. So we like using put spreads

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Speaker 10: here because you know the VIX is at twenty. It's

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Speaker 10: not as if it's a steal. But I do think,

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Speaker 10: you know, continuing to maintain some insurance is important.

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Speaker 3: So translate the pro put spread structure over to someone

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Speaker 3: like Lisa Matteo with a five oh one K. She's

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Speaker 3: killed it on the tech play. She's not going to

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Speaker 3: do a put spread on a five oh one K.

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Speaker 3: How do you be defensive within a.

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Speaker 7: Retirement right, And this is where I come back to.

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Speaker 10: You know, insurance is costly. We don't ask Geico to

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Speaker 10: sell us car insurance and not expect them to make money.

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Speaker 10: You shouldn't expect Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley to sell

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Speaker 10: you financial market insurance and not to make money.

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Speaker 7: Insurance is costly. Over time, that cost can add.

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Speaker 10: Up, and so where our focus at Macro Risk Advisors

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Speaker 10: has been has been on diversifying assets like gold. And

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Speaker 10: gold is acting really nicely defensively even as it trends higher.

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Speaker 10: So it's not a tail risk hedge that you can

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Speaker 10: truly count on. There is some basis risk, but because

440
00:23:33,200 --> 00:23:36,560
Speaker 10: it's got this limited supply profile, and this is the

441
00:23:36,680 --> 00:23:41,000
Speaker 10: most important part it occupies a space in the sort

442
00:23:41,000 --> 00:23:44,920
Speaker 10: of collective intelligence of how people think about markets that

443
00:23:45,600 --> 00:23:49,800
Speaker 10: it benefits from chaos and sadly, I think the world

444
00:23:50,080 --> 00:23:54,040
Speaker 10: is having to confront a lot of uncertainty here and

445
00:23:54,160 --> 00:23:56,960
Speaker 10: so as we try to price in the what ifs

446
00:23:57,560 --> 00:24:02,960
Speaker 10: of Russia, Ukraine, of terror, riffs of monetary policy, that's

447
00:24:03,000 --> 00:24:05,680
Speaker 10: a lot to take in. And gold benefits from this

448
00:24:05,800 --> 00:24:08,960
Speaker 10: sort of widening of you know, what we have to

449
00:24:09,040 --> 00:24:10,880
Speaker 10: handicap in terms of potential outcomes.

450
00:24:11,280 --> 00:24:14,080
Speaker 6: Clients you talk to, do they think there's more another

451
00:24:14,200 --> 00:24:15,200
Speaker 6: leg down in this market?

452
00:24:15,800 --> 00:24:18,840
Speaker 10: Yeah, I'd say it's very easy to paint pictures of,

453
00:24:19,359 --> 00:24:21,760
Speaker 10: you know, further downside. I think it comes, you know,

454
00:24:21,920 --> 00:24:25,040
Speaker 10: back to how much is the real economy truly affected

455
00:24:25,119 --> 00:24:26,240
Speaker 10: by the tariff uncertainty?

456
00:24:26,520 --> 00:24:28,720
Speaker 3: I got to get this in. I mean, it's cruel

457
00:24:28,760 --> 00:24:32,920
Speaker 3: and unusual punishment. You actually bring your children in to

458
00:24:33,040 --> 00:24:36,040
Speaker 3: see Bloomberg surveillance. Can we say good morning to mister

459
00:24:36,160 --> 00:24:40,800
Speaker 3: Thompson really appreciate his attention to the show. My young

460
00:24:41,000 --> 00:24:45,320
Speaker 3: kids even want you on YouTube while they eat breakfast

461
00:24:45,480 --> 00:24:48,840
Speaker 3: night before school. Okay, I would back and said, well

462
00:24:48,880 --> 00:24:50,840
Speaker 3: what do they eat? I figured it was like fruit

463
00:24:50,920 --> 00:24:54,280
Speaker 3: loops or you know, and it's like Alisa Matteo breakfast.

464
00:24:54,359 --> 00:24:57,680
Speaker 3: They're having like gluten free this and you know the

465
00:24:58,000 --> 00:25:02,240
Speaker 3: oatmeal and you know, come on, So we say, mister

466
00:25:02,359 --> 00:25:06,119
Speaker 3: thomp said, this is cruel and unusual. Punishment is, well,

467
00:25:06,160 --> 00:25:07,960
Speaker 3: you didn't bring your offspring in today, did you.

468
00:25:08,160 --> 00:25:11,640
Speaker 10: She could not make the five thirty wake up calls either.

469
00:25:11,640 --> 00:25:15,240
Speaker 3: Either, could I. That's a separate story. Dean Kurtit thank

470
00:25:15,320 --> 00:25:20,040
Speaker 3: you so much with Macros. Can't say enough about his research.

471
00:25:20,160 --> 00:25:23,320
Speaker 3: Now you've got to get that through Macro Risk Advisors.

472
00:25:23,600 --> 00:25:25,800
Speaker 2: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast.

473
00:25:26,200 --> 00:25:29,119
Speaker 1: Listen live each weekday starting at seven am Eastern on

474
00:25:29,240 --> 00:25:30,399
Speaker 1: Apple Coarplay.

475
00:25:30,040 --> 00:25:32,440
Speaker 8: And Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business app.

476
00:25:32,560 --> 00:25:35,560
Speaker 1: You can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our

477
00:25:35,600 --> 00:25:40,119
Speaker 1: flagship New York station. Just say Alexa play Bloomberg eleven thirty.

478
00:25:40,560 --> 00:25:42,960
Speaker 3: This is a real bias that I have, folks, Which

479
00:25:43,080 --> 00:25:46,840
Speaker 3: is it? We like people with prodigious engineering chops. We

480
00:25:46,960 --> 00:25:50,280
Speaker 3: get some wonderful pedigree in here. Aaron McLoughlin joins us

481
00:25:50,320 --> 00:25:52,720
Speaker 3: now with a conference board, and I mean the road

482
00:25:52,760 --> 00:25:57,080
Speaker 3: interview is what's the FED gonna do? But underneath it

483
00:25:57,240 --> 00:26:05,400
Speaker 3: all is shocking competent and transportation, Urban studies, and engineering.

484
00:26:05,640 --> 00:26:09,199
Speaker 3: So we're doing a massive audible here with Aaron McLoughlin

485
00:26:09,359 --> 00:26:11,640
Speaker 3: on her massive unique wheelhouse.

486
00:26:12,000 --> 00:26:12,600
Speaker 11: Good morning.

487
00:26:13,000 --> 00:26:17,160
Speaker 3: Why does it take so long to build anything? Paul

488
00:26:17,280 --> 00:26:20,440
Speaker 3: Sweeney is out there every day looking at the tunnel

489
00:26:20,840 --> 00:26:24,040
Speaker 3: over the New Jerseys. Why in America does it take

490
00:26:24,320 --> 00:26:26,640
Speaker 3: so long to build anything?

491
00:26:28,400 --> 00:26:33,920
Speaker 11: Permits, land acquisition, environmental regulations not in my backyard?

492
00:26:34,040 --> 00:26:35,520
Speaker 2: Or do they have all of those things?

493
00:26:35,640 --> 00:26:37,960
Speaker 3: Do they have not in my backyard in Switzerland?

494
00:26:38,760 --> 00:26:41,640
Speaker 11: I imagine they must, although I just went to Switzerland

495
00:26:41,680 --> 00:26:44,119
Speaker 11: a couple weeks ago actually and learned that it's smaller

496
00:26:44,200 --> 00:26:47,600
Speaker 11: than my home state of Massachusetts my population, so you know,

497
00:26:47,840 --> 00:26:52,159
Speaker 11: there's a lot more homogenious thought perhaps in other places

498
00:26:52,200 --> 00:26:54,360
Speaker 11: in the world as we know. I think it's really

499
00:26:54,400 --> 00:26:56,959
Speaker 11: interesting that the current administration is going to speed up

500
00:26:57,240 --> 00:27:01,640
Speaker 11: federal permitting, federal regulations, but we still have state permitting

501
00:27:01,760 --> 00:27:05,480
Speaker 11: and regulations and lots of other bureaucracies that will slow

502
00:27:05,560 --> 00:27:08,639
Speaker 11: things down. And our supply chain is physical. So this

503
00:27:08,800 --> 00:27:12,280
Speaker 11: is all really relevant conversation as we talk about reshoring.

504
00:27:12,000 --> 00:27:13,880
Speaker 3: Well, we get one more thing in here. Whether they're

505
00:27:13,880 --> 00:27:17,440
Speaker 3: building an Intel factory, somewhere sem a conductor and all that.

506
00:27:18,280 --> 00:27:21,480
Speaker 3: Do we have the labor to do the infrastructure, whether

507
00:27:21,480 --> 00:27:24,359
Speaker 3: you're expert at or do we have the labor to

508
00:27:24,480 --> 00:27:28,000
Speaker 3: actually run the companies better than you do three miles

509
00:27:28,080 --> 00:27:29,040
Speaker 3: west of Hong Kong.

510
00:27:29,560 --> 00:27:32,119
Speaker 11: It's very interesting and that sort of lends itself to

511
00:27:32,200 --> 00:27:37,600
Speaker 11: the big uncertainty. Construction labor has I believe, the highest

512
00:27:37,760 --> 00:27:42,240
Speaker 11: percentage of foreign born workers. So my friends that are

513
00:27:42,400 --> 00:27:45,480
Speaker 11: directly in the construction industry right now are seeing labor

514
00:27:45,560 --> 00:27:48,520
Speaker 11: shortages be exasperated by some of the policies.

515
00:27:48,760 --> 00:27:54,080
Speaker 3: And yes, yes we go to surveillance construction expert Paul Sweeney,

516
00:27:54,200 --> 00:27:56,600
Speaker 3: or how about that bathroom redo right now?

517
00:27:57,760 --> 00:28:00,280
Speaker 6: Look looking solid, all those things.

518
00:28:00,440 --> 00:28:04,840
Speaker 5: Just talking about Tom talking about construction, the gateway project,

519
00:28:05,040 --> 00:28:07,240
Speaker 5: the coming into the the what's going to be the

520
00:28:07,320 --> 00:28:11,560
Speaker 5: new Lincoln in the new tunnel, the railroads, unbelievable what

521
00:28:11,600 --> 00:28:16,000
Speaker 5: they've built in just this couple year's time. Really again,

522
00:28:16,080 --> 00:28:18,400
Speaker 5: the progress that they've made out there building that new

523
00:28:18,560 --> 00:28:20,480
Speaker 5: railroad thing in North Jersey's pretty cool.

524
00:28:20,920 --> 00:28:22,639
Speaker 6: What we've been dealing with over the last couple of.

525
00:28:22,760 --> 00:28:26,800
Speaker 5: Months, Aaron, has been economic policy coming out of Washington

526
00:28:26,920 --> 00:28:29,480
Speaker 5: that we're hearing across the board, whether it's talks of

527
00:28:29,520 --> 00:28:31,960
Speaker 5: tariffs or changes in immigration policies, creating a level of

528
00:28:32,119 --> 00:28:35,960
Speaker 5: uncertainty out there for everybody. How do you guys reflect

529
00:28:36,000 --> 00:28:37,480
Speaker 5: that in your data at the Conference Word? What are

530
00:28:37,520 --> 00:28:39,160
Speaker 5: your companies that you talk to?

531
00:28:39,240 --> 00:28:42,840
Speaker 11: What are they saying. So our companies are members of

532
00:28:42,920 --> 00:28:44,880
Speaker 11: the Conference Board, what we're hearing from them is of

533
00:28:44,960 --> 00:28:47,920
Speaker 11: course uncertainty, but it is creating I don't want to

534
00:28:48,040 --> 00:28:51,920
Speaker 11: use the word paralysis, but it is creating an extreme

535
00:28:52,720 --> 00:28:56,680
Speaker 11: slowdown in decision making. And that slow down we think

536
00:28:56,800 --> 00:29:00,560
Speaker 11: will ripple into the economy and cause an economic slowdown.

537
00:29:01,160 --> 00:29:03,960
Speaker 5: And Tom was just calling out the UBS chief executive.

538
00:29:03,960 --> 00:29:06,840
Speaker 5: He's over in London. He's saying, Hey, basically their MNA

539
00:29:06,920 --> 00:29:09,160
Speaker 5: stuff is frozen. I mean, you know, because people don't

540
00:29:09,160 --> 00:29:11,840
Speaker 5: know what to do. How about consumer confidence? Because here

541
00:29:11,920 --> 00:29:13,960
Speaker 5: in the US that's seventy percent of our economy is

542
00:29:14,040 --> 00:29:16,400
Speaker 5: kind of the consumer. What's your data showing.

543
00:29:16,840 --> 00:29:19,000
Speaker 11: So the Conference Board is very well known for our

544
00:29:19,040 --> 00:29:22,360
Speaker 11: consumer confidence index, and it sort of dipped for the

545
00:29:22,400 --> 00:29:26,360
Speaker 11: first time into what we would consider recessionary possible territory.

546
00:29:26,720 --> 00:29:29,719
Speaker 11: We are not calling for a recession, but consumers are

547
00:29:29,760 --> 00:29:33,440
Speaker 11: seeing what's happening around them, and they are cutting back

548
00:29:33,560 --> 00:29:36,080
Speaker 11: on spending that maybe discretionary.

549
00:29:36,880 --> 00:29:37,680
Speaker 9: You have four.

550
00:29:37,640 --> 00:29:42,600
Speaker 3: Degrees in the Act author Education and Infrastructure, including Oxford

551
00:29:42,680 --> 00:29:48,800
Speaker 3: University's wonderful infrastructure development and finance effort. Aeron McLaughlin the

552
00:29:48,920 --> 00:29:51,800
Speaker 3: congestion text. Do you have an opinion that won't get

553
00:29:51,880 --> 00:29:55,040
Speaker 3: you in trouble with the General counsel of the conference Board?

554
00:29:55,360 --> 00:29:58,280
Speaker 11: Well, I know you all were watching outside the windows,

555
00:29:58,360 --> 00:30:00,520
Speaker 11: as was I since I'm based here in mid tois Manhattan,

556
00:30:00,600 --> 00:30:03,800
Speaker 11: and it certainly did ease up on it. It seemed

557
00:30:03,840 --> 00:30:06,200
Speaker 11: to work, you know, like anything else. After a while,

558
00:30:06,240 --> 00:30:09,360
Speaker 11: it would probably have less of an impact. Folks would get,

559
00:30:09,760 --> 00:30:13,040
Speaker 11: you know, accustomed to sort of pain the fee. But

560
00:30:13,800 --> 00:30:17,240
Speaker 11: congestion weighs down our economy. So there's you know, there's

561
00:30:17,440 --> 00:30:18,720
Speaker 11: both sides to the conversation.

562
00:30:18,880 --> 00:30:22,120
Speaker 3: Okay, they're in my ear. Ask her one question about

563
00:30:22,160 --> 00:30:24,800
Speaker 3: the FED. Oh yes, What do we say is the

564
00:30:24,920 --> 00:30:30,640
Speaker 3: consumer is a consumer in this shutdown so broken that

565
00:30:30,760 --> 00:30:32,920
Speaker 3: the FED has to do an audible today and say

566
00:30:33,000 --> 00:30:34,160
Speaker 3: we're going to wait, wait wait.

567
00:30:34,720 --> 00:30:37,320
Speaker 11: I think the FED will wait wait, wait, yes, and

568
00:30:37,520 --> 00:30:40,960
Speaker 11: I think it will be interesting going forward to keep

569
00:30:41,000 --> 00:30:46,240
Speaker 11: an eye on labor inform labor data will increasingly be

570
00:30:46,520 --> 00:30:47,600
Speaker 11: more important this year.

571
00:30:47,760 --> 00:30:51,480
Speaker 3: Now, when you leave the building, if John Tucker or

572
00:30:51,640 --> 00:30:54,760
Speaker 3: Michael Barr tackle you, I know to look for a

573
00:30:54,880 --> 00:30:58,760
Speaker 3: parking garage north of sixtieth Street. Just run. I will

574
00:30:58,880 --> 00:31:01,960
Speaker 3: call security. Aaron McLaughlin, thank you so much for the

575
00:31:02,040 --> 00:31:04,720
Speaker 3: conference Board Senior economists, and we're going to get our

576
00:31:04,760 --> 00:31:09,240
Speaker 3: back on this whole infrastructure debate where everything takes forever

577
00:31:10,120 --> 00:31:10,640
Speaker 3: to build.

578
00:31:17,200 --> 00:31:19,400
Speaker 2: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast.

579
00:31:19,800 --> 00:31:24,000
Speaker 1: Listen live each weekday starting at seven am Eastern on Apple, Corplay.

580
00:31:23,640 --> 00:31:26,040
Speaker 8: And Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business app.

581
00:31:26,160 --> 00:31:29,040
Speaker 1: You can also watch us live every weekday on YouTube

582
00:31:29,200 --> 00:31:31,240
Speaker 1: and always on the Bloomberg terminal.

583
00:31:31,400 --> 00:31:34,280
Speaker 3: It is the newspapers, and they've really been something. You know,

584
00:31:34,360 --> 00:31:36,880
Speaker 3: we'd like to do some lighthearted stuff here, folks, but

585
00:31:37,000 --> 00:31:41,080
Speaker 3: I'll tell you just newspaper to newspaper right now. Absolutely

586
00:31:41,360 --> 00:31:45,280
Speaker 3: unreal the jumble that's out there with an unreal report today,

587
00:31:45,440 --> 00:31:46,600
Speaker 3: Lisa matel what do you have.

588
00:31:47,040 --> 00:31:49,720
Speaker 12: Well, we always hear different stories right about President Trump's

589
00:31:49,720 --> 00:31:54,040
Speaker 12: hostility toward Canada, how that's affecting different things. Now it's

590
00:31:54,160 --> 00:31:56,560
Speaker 12: actually could be hurting New York City tourism. So this

591
00:31:56,760 --> 00:31:58,640
Speaker 12: was in the New York Times. They say were more

592
00:31:58,680 --> 00:32:01,000
Speaker 12: than one million Canadians visit New York City last year,

593
00:32:01,080 --> 00:32:04,520
Speaker 12: they spent about six hundred million dollars. Only the British

594
00:32:04,680 --> 00:32:07,040
Speaker 12: visit more than Canadians the New York City.

595
00:32:07,040 --> 00:32:07,720
Speaker 6: I didn't realize that.

596
00:32:08,480 --> 00:32:10,360
Speaker 12: So now a lot of them are canceling their trips

597
00:32:11,040 --> 00:32:13,200
Speaker 12: since he imposed the tariffs on Canada, threatened to make

598
00:32:13,240 --> 00:32:15,640
Speaker 12: it the fifty first state. So the data shows last

599
00:32:15,680 --> 00:32:18,120
Speaker 12: month the number of Canadians flying to three airports in

600
00:32:18,240 --> 00:32:21,200
Speaker 12: around the city fell eleven percent compared with twenty twenty

601
00:32:21,240 --> 00:32:23,640
Speaker 12: four that same time period. And the New York Times

602
00:32:23,680 --> 00:32:26,400
Speaker 12: they spoke with different tourism guys. They said, school groups,

603
00:32:26,400 --> 00:32:31,880
Speaker 12: they're calling off those end of the year trips, retirees, newlyweds, friends, families,

604
00:32:32,480 --> 00:32:35,760
Speaker 12: and they say that tourism boycott could extend because now

605
00:32:35,800 --> 00:32:38,959
Speaker 12: people are planning twenty twenty six trips, so they might

606
00:32:39,000 --> 00:32:40,400
Speaker 12: be canceling those as well.

607
00:32:42,240 --> 00:32:43,600
Speaker 3: Because I'm afraid of what I'll said.

608
00:32:43,680 --> 00:32:45,240
Speaker 6: No, it's just it's it's it's sad.

609
00:32:45,640 --> 00:32:48,200
Speaker 5: And again, you think about Florida, and I think I

610
00:32:48,280 --> 00:32:49,720
Speaker 5: know a lot of Canadians go to like you know,

611
00:32:49,760 --> 00:32:51,720
Speaker 5: the Phoenix area in the winter time for all that

612
00:32:51,800 --> 00:32:52,280
Speaker 5: kind of stuff.

613
00:32:52,320 --> 00:32:54,280
Speaker 6: So it's not good.

614
00:32:55,240 --> 00:32:58,200
Speaker 3: I would say more than anything here, I'll just opine,

615
00:32:59,000 --> 00:33:02,480
Speaker 3: it's just talk about fifty first state. I grew up

616
00:33:02,640 --> 00:33:08,200
Speaker 3: in basically southern Toronto which is called Rochester and across

617
00:33:08,320 --> 00:33:12,560
Speaker 3: Lake Ontario. I think, like the airplane flight is eighteen

618
00:33:12,640 --> 00:33:16,280
Speaker 3: minutes or serving. And it's this talk of a fifty

619
00:33:16,320 --> 00:33:16,840
Speaker 3: first state.

620
00:33:17,000 --> 00:33:18,800
Speaker 6: It is just it hurtful.

621
00:33:18,880 --> 00:33:21,920
Speaker 3: Yeah, next, you got something lighter than that place.

622
00:33:22,120 --> 00:33:23,320
Speaker 6: Shoot, how about this?

623
00:33:23,560 --> 00:33:26,160
Speaker 12: More companies leaving Delaware for Nevada.

624
00:33:26,400 --> 00:33:27,480
Speaker 8: Okay, And it's a move.

625
00:33:27,560 --> 00:33:31,000
Speaker 12: It's called dexit, that's what they're calling it. U So

626
00:33:31,240 --> 00:33:34,680
Speaker 12: Delaware's new governor, he's just warning. He's saying they're rolling

627
00:33:34,760 --> 00:33:38,400
Speaker 12: the dice by leaving to Vegas. But the reason why

628
00:33:38,480 --> 00:33:40,760
Speaker 12: they're doing it, they say Nevada offers as much safer

629
00:33:40,840 --> 00:33:44,400
Speaker 12: bet than Delaware and it's recently become easier to move

630
00:33:44,440 --> 00:33:48,160
Speaker 12: because Delaware Supreme Court changed recently they cleared companies to

631
00:33:48,280 --> 00:33:51,320
Speaker 12: leave the state. So they agreed with Nevada's argument because

632
00:33:51,360 --> 00:33:53,360
Speaker 12: Nevada says it should be the companies and not the

633
00:33:53,480 --> 00:33:56,080
Speaker 12: courts that should conduct those costs benefit analysis.

634
00:33:56,160 --> 00:33:59,400
Speaker 6: Over what state offers that better deal. So they have

635
00:33:59,480 --> 00:33:59,880
Speaker 6: had a few more.

636
00:34:00,080 --> 00:34:02,640
Speaker 12: You had a Bill Ackman's Pershing Square, drop box, the

637
00:34:02,720 --> 00:34:05,840
Speaker 12: trade desk. They've gone from Delaware over Toll.

638
00:34:05,840 --> 00:34:06,760
Speaker 3: It's a huge franchise.

639
00:34:06,840 --> 00:34:10,080
Speaker 6: You go down, ye next is definitely okay.

640
00:34:10,320 --> 00:34:12,320
Speaker 12: So the next time any of you please go to

641
00:34:12,440 --> 00:34:15,600
Speaker 12: the Taco Bell to drive through, okay, especially those late

642
00:34:15,719 --> 00:34:19,719
Speaker 12: night runs, AI could be taking your next order. We

643
00:34:19,840 --> 00:34:22,480
Speaker 12: have young brands, they owned Taco Bell, Pizza hut KFC.

644
00:34:22,920 --> 00:34:24,680
Speaker 6: They're partnering with Nvidia.

645
00:34:24,320 --> 00:34:27,080
Speaker 12: To build these AI driven services in the restaurants. So

646
00:34:27,560 --> 00:34:29,719
Speaker 12: some of them are AI powered voice ordering it the

647
00:34:29,840 --> 00:34:31,920
Speaker 12: drive through. So now AI, you won't be talking to

648
00:34:32,000 --> 00:34:34,360
Speaker 12: a person, you'll be talking to I guess a computer

649
00:34:35,480 --> 00:34:38,040
Speaker 12: and it's going to be using about five hundred it's locations.

650
00:34:38,280 --> 00:34:40,400
Speaker 12: But they're saying they're saying they're saying it's going to

651
00:34:40,440 --> 00:34:43,319
Speaker 12: help boost sales doing that instead of you know, going

652
00:34:43,360 --> 00:34:45,280
Speaker 12: with the regular humans. But they're saying that the humans

653
00:34:45,280 --> 00:34:47,920
Speaker 12: are not going to disappear. They're still going to be there.

654
00:34:48,040 --> 00:34:48,920
Speaker 6: They're just going to be.

655
00:34:48,960 --> 00:34:53,280
Speaker 12: Focused more on customers service and helping the customers instead.

656
00:34:54,280 --> 00:34:56,160
Speaker 12: But they're using it in different ways. You know internal

657
00:34:56,239 --> 00:34:58,600
Speaker 12: things too. But McDonald's too has been you know, talking

658
00:34:58,640 --> 00:34:59,880
Speaker 12: about the different technology that.

659
00:35:00,080 --> 00:35:00,879
Speaker 7: Number two with a coke?

660
00:35:01,000 --> 00:35:01,480
Speaker 6: How hard does that?

661
00:35:02,080 --> 00:35:02,320
Speaker 3: Ordering that?

662
00:35:02,400 --> 00:35:03,240
Speaker 6: Since I was fifteen?

663
00:35:03,719 --> 00:35:07,840
Speaker 3: Well, what percentage of their business is like seamless, DoorDash,

664
00:35:07,880 --> 00:35:08,439
Speaker 3: grub Hub.

665
00:35:08,960 --> 00:35:09,719
Speaker 8: That's a good question.

666
00:35:10,840 --> 00:35:12,360
Speaker 12: I know in my house it's Ginoi.

667
00:35:13,440 --> 00:35:14,120
Speaker 6: Not in my house.

668
00:35:14,200 --> 00:35:16,759
Speaker 3: I picked up the bag of McDonald's. I said, why

669
00:35:16,800 --> 00:35:18,200
Speaker 3: are we ordering McDonald's.

670
00:35:18,239 --> 00:35:18,759
Speaker 4: Who are we?

671
00:35:19,560 --> 00:35:19,920
Speaker 3: What have we?

672
00:35:20,920 --> 00:35:23,919
Speaker 12: Well, it's different when you walk in. I truth be told.

673
00:35:23,960 --> 00:35:27,040
Speaker 12: I went to a McDonald's last week, and you go

674
00:35:27,280 --> 00:35:28,759
Speaker 12: there and it's just a computer screen.

675
00:35:28,760 --> 00:35:30,240
Speaker 6: You can't go up to the person anymore.

676
00:35:30,719 --> 00:35:33,520
Speaker 12: So you're sitting there and I'm confused. I'm sitting there

677
00:35:33,560 --> 00:35:36,279
Speaker 12: pressing like fifty million buttons. I'm like what I could

678
00:35:36,280 --> 00:35:38,200
Speaker 12: have just gone to the person, told them what I wanted,

679
00:35:38,320 --> 00:35:39,239
Speaker 12: and we've done like this.

680
00:35:39,560 --> 00:35:43,320
Speaker 6: They made it so easy. I was so confused figured

681
00:35:43,320 --> 00:35:43,560
Speaker 6: it out.

682
00:35:43,680 --> 00:35:45,240
Speaker 12: But technology things are changing.

683
00:35:45,760 --> 00:35:47,839
Speaker 3: Lisa Mateo the Newspapers.

684
00:35:48,360 --> 00:35:53,120
Speaker 1: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast, available on Apple, Spotify

685
00:35:53,320 --> 00:35:57,040
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686
00:35:57,120 --> 00:36:00,680
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687
00:36:01,120 --> 00:36:04,839
Speaker 1: The iHeartRadio app tune In, and the Bloomberg Business app.

688
00:36:05,200 --> 00:36:08,280
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689
00:36:08,600 --> 00:36:10,600
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