WEBVTT - Single Best Idea with Tom Keene: Bret Barker & John Stoltzfus

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<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio news.

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<v Speaker 2>Single best idea, the last one of the year. We

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<v Speaker 2>will revisit in January to reframe what seems to be

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<v Speaker 2>an exceptional twenty twenty five. I just mentioned to Paul Sweeney,

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<v Speaker 2>I've never seen a holiday season with less focus on

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<v Speaker 2>how stores are doing. I don't know why that is.

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<v Speaker 2>Maybe we'll pick up the pieces in January. One thing

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<v Speaker 2>I heard two or three days ago which I do

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<v Speaker 2>agree with, and I think it's important. We're setting ourselves

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<v Speaker 2>up for an exceptionally important earning season. Look for that

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<v Speaker 2>January twenty five ish. I think Apple's January thirtieth and

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<v Speaker 2>into early February with a frenzy JP Morgan I'm assuming

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<v Speaker 2>is I don't have it in front of me January fifteenth, seventeenth, whatever.

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<v Speaker 2>But the earning season I think this year, for the

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<v Speaker 2>fourth quarter will really be something on this final single

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<v Speaker 2>best idea for the year on what I watch most closely,

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<v Speaker 2>which is the inflation adjusted rate tips piece tenure. Here's

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<v Speaker 2>Brett Barker of TCW on the left coast. Brett Barker

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<v Speaker 2>on higher real rates.

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<v Speaker 3>This is really reminiscent of fall of twenty twenty three.

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<v Speaker 3>If you remember back then, there was a lot of

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<v Speaker 3>talk of risk premium fiscal largess, right, and we had

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<v Speaker 3>real rates in the thirty yearth sector close to two sixty.

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<v Speaker 3>We're not too far from there now, and the ten

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<v Speaker 3>year rates within twenty base points where we were there.

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<v Speaker 3>So I think we look at that. I think real

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<v Speaker 3>rates are restricted. So for us, I think you're getting

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<v Speaker 3>close to these points. I think people are talking about

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<v Speaker 3>how we can go. It's like, well, I think at

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<v Speaker 3>this point at time, you're basically back to almost PREGFC

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<v Speaker 3>levels on real rates, and we don't think the economy

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<v Speaker 3>is the same as it was in PGFC, so we

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<v Speaker 3>think these are pretty restricted real rates.

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<v Speaker 2>That's really important statement Brett Barker TCW. Here, and this

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<v Speaker 2>is this restrictive or accommodative goes to the heart of

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<v Speaker 2>the matter. That's the debate that's engaged in economics, finance, investment,

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<v Speaker 2>and indeed redounding over to international relations as well and

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<v Speaker 2>the real rate. You know, but for those of you

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<v Speaker 2>that don't follow this, from a one point nine zero

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<v Speaker 2>ish out to two point twenty five ish is a

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<v Speaker 2>really significant move. TCW cautious there as well on a

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<v Speaker 2>Christmas Eve, Benjamin Ladler then at HSBC. This is twenty

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<v Speaker 2>eighteen twelve, twenty four eighteen. Ben Ladler said, get on

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<v Speaker 2>board stocks. It's one of the great bullmarket calls of

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<v Speaker 2>all time. It's been a six year run EBB and

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<v Speaker 2>flow here COVID. I looked in two thousand and I

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<v Speaker 2>think twenty three. Maybe we had a draw down a

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<v Speaker 2>seven or eight percent. Whatever, the answer is, it's been

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<v Speaker 2>a great bullmarket. And congratulations to strategists that have led

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<v Speaker 2>on that. One who's led is from OpCo. His name

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<v Speaker 2>is John Stolfis. He writes a brilliant short accessible non

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<v Speaker 2>Mathey notes, and they talk about participation in the market

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<v Speaker 2>and participating with an optimism the corporations will adapt. He

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<v Speaker 2>has a stunning call out the SPX seven thousand ish

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<v Speaker 2>that gets you out near DOWBT forty nine thousand, Dow

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<v Speaker 2>fifty thousand, maybe with some optimism and a cup of

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<v Speaker 2>eggnag out to fifty one thousand on the doubt. John

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<v Speaker 2>STOFISOVOPKO the view forward.

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<v Speaker 1>First thing, I've got to say that I think the

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<v Speaker 1>bears got it wrong and that they thought the FED

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<v Speaker 1>was going to blow up the economy. Push US into

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<v Speaker 1>a recession with the with the Ray high cycle that

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<v Speaker 1>they started in March twenty two. Instead, the Fed was

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<v Speaker 1>very sensitive in exercising its dual mandate. Then the bear's

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<v Speaker 1>been really bid wrong on the consumer. We always say,

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<v Speaker 1>don't bet against the American consumer. The consumer discretionary, by

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<v Speaker 1>the way, is the best performing S and P five

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<v Speaker 1>hundred index since August fit which was the summer low,

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<v Speaker 1>which was when the market had that fullback of around

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<v Speaker 1>eight percent.

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<v Speaker 2>Paul Sweeney told me to buy Walmart. I didn't. I

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<v Speaker 2>guess that's consumer discretionary. John Stolphus of OpCo on your

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<v Speaker 2>community across the nation on Apple car Play worldwide, on

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<v Speaker 2>Apple car Play and Android Auto, on Serius XM channel

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<v Speaker 2>one twenty one and from Nathan Hagars Washington in ninety

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<v Speaker 2>nine one FM, Tamal Kataden and Boston in ninety two

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<v Speaker 2>nine and on YouTube. All I can say is subscribe

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<v Speaker 2>to Bloomberg podcast. It is our future and my future

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<v Speaker 2>here at Bloomberg Surveillance, and of course this podcast find

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