Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio news.
Speaker 2: Single best idea, the last one of the year. We
Speaker 2: will revisit in January to reframe what seems to be
Speaker 2: an exceptional twenty twenty five. I just mentioned to Paul Sweeney,
Speaker 2: I've never seen a holiday season with less focus on
Speaker 2: how stores are doing. I don't know why that is.
Speaker 2: Maybe we'll pick up the pieces in January. One thing
Speaker 2: I heard two or three days ago which I do
Speaker 2: agree with, and I think it's important. We're setting ourselves
Speaker 2: up for an exceptionally important earning season. Look for that
Speaker 2: January twenty five ish. I think Apple's January thirtieth and
Speaker 2: into early February with a frenzy JP Morgan I'm assuming
Speaker 2: is I don't have it in front of me January fifteenth, seventeenth, whatever.
Speaker 2: But the earning season I think this year, for the
Speaker 2: fourth quarter will really be something on this final single
Speaker 2: best idea for the year on what I watch most closely,
Speaker 2: which is the inflation adjusted rate tips piece tenure. Here's
Speaker 2: Brett Barker of TCW on the left coast. Brett Barker
Speaker 2: on higher real rates.
Speaker 3: This is really reminiscent of fall of twenty twenty three.
Speaker 3: If you remember back then, there was a lot of
Speaker 3: talk of risk premium fiscal largess, right, and we had
Speaker 3: real rates in the thirty yearth sector close to two sixty.
Speaker 3: We're not too far from there now, and the ten
Speaker 3: year rates within twenty base points where we were there.
Speaker 3: So I think we look at that. I think real
Speaker 3: rates are restricted. So for us, I think you're getting
Speaker 3: close to these points. I think people are talking about
Speaker 3: how we can go. It's like, well, I think at
Speaker 3: this point at time, you're basically back to almost PREGFC
Speaker 3: levels on real rates, and we don't think the economy
Speaker 3: is the same as it was in PGFC, so we
Speaker 3: think these are pretty restricted real rates.
Speaker 2: That's really important statement Brett Barker TCW. Here, and this
Speaker 2: is this restrictive or accommodative goes to the heart of
Speaker 2: the matter. That's the debate that's engaged in economics, finance, investment,
Speaker 2: and indeed redounding over to international relations as well and
Speaker 2: the real rate. You know, but for those of you
Speaker 2: that don't follow this, from a one point nine zero
Speaker 2: ish out to two point twenty five ish is a
Speaker 2: really significant move. TCW cautious there as well on a
Speaker 2: Christmas Eve, Benjamin Ladler then at HSBC. This is twenty
Speaker 2: eighteen twelve, twenty four eighteen. Ben Ladler said, get on
Speaker 2: board stocks. It's one of the great bullmarket calls of
Speaker 2: all time. It's been a six year run EBB and
Speaker 2: flow here COVID. I looked in two thousand and I
Speaker 2: think twenty three. Maybe we had a draw down a
Speaker 2: seven or eight percent. Whatever, the answer is, it's been
Speaker 2: a great bullmarket. And congratulations to strategists that have led
Speaker 2: on that. One who's led is from OpCo. His name
Speaker 2: is John Stolfis. He writes a brilliant short accessible non
Speaker 2: Mathey notes, and they talk about participation in the market
Speaker 2: and participating with an optimism the corporations will adapt. He
Speaker 2: has a stunning call out the SPX seven thousand ish
Speaker 2: that gets you out near DOWBT forty nine thousand, Dow
Speaker 2: fifty thousand, maybe with some optimism and a cup of
Speaker 2: eggnag out to fifty one thousand on the doubt. John
Speaker 2: STOFISOVOPKO the view forward.
Speaker 1: First thing, I've got to say that I think the
Speaker 1: bears got it wrong and that they thought the FED
Speaker 1: was going to blow up the economy. Push US into
Speaker 1: a recession with the with the Ray high cycle that
Speaker 1: they started in March twenty two. Instead, the Fed was
Speaker 1: very sensitive in exercising its dual mandate. Then the bear's
Speaker 1: been really bid wrong on the consumer. We always say,
Speaker 1: don't bet against the American consumer. The consumer discretionary, by
Speaker 1: the way, is the best performing S and P five
Speaker 1: hundred index since August fit which was the summer low,
Speaker 1: which was when the market had that fullback of around
Speaker 1: eight percent.
Speaker 2: Paul Sweeney told me to buy Walmart. I didn't. I
Speaker 2: guess that's consumer discretionary. John Stolphus of OpCo on your
Speaker 2: community across the nation on Apple car Play worldwide, on
Speaker 2: Apple car Play and Android Auto, on Serius XM channel
Speaker 2: one twenty one and from Nathan Hagars Washington in ninety
Speaker 2: nine one FM, Tamal Kataden and Boston in ninety two
Speaker 2: nine and on YouTube. All I can say is subscribe
Speaker 2: to Bloomberg podcast. It is our future and my future
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