WEBVTT - Counterfeiting Scandals Keep Slamming the Commodities Market

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<v Speaker 1>Hello, and welcome to another episode of the Odd Blots podcast.

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<v Speaker 2>I'm Tracy Alloway and I'm Joe Wisenthal.

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<v Speaker 1>Joe, have you ever heard of something called the tablet

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<v Speaker 1>of a Naser? I'm going to mispronounce that because my

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<v Speaker 1>ancient Mesopotamian isn't up to scratch, but the tablet of

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<v Speaker 1>a Nasser?

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<v Speaker 3>No.

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<v Speaker 2>Never.

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<v Speaker 1>This became like a big internet meme. There were lots

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<v Speaker 1>of jokes about it, but it was basically this tablet,

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<v Speaker 1>this old Mesopotamian tablet I think it was like four

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<v Speaker 1>thousand years old with cuneiform written on it. People sometimes

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<v Speaker 1>talk about it as the world's oldest business complaint.

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<v Speaker 2>You know, not only have I never heard of this tablet,

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<v Speaker 2>I'm actually struggling to like figure out what the next

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<v Speaker 2>thing you're going to say is that connects it to

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<v Speaker 2>this episode that's coming up.

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<v Speaker 1>This is the most random intro to.

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<v Speaker 4>What I like.

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<v Speaker 2>I like this one. I like where you're going.

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<v Speaker 1>I'm trying, I'm trying to bring historic context. But okay,

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<v Speaker 1>So written on this tablet was a business complaint against

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<v Speaker 1>this guy, a Nasser, who was a copper trader in

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<v Speaker 1>ancient Mesopotamia and his customer had written a complaint basically saying,

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<v Speaker 1>you promised me a certain amount and type of copper,

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<v Speaker 1>you gave me lesser quality copper, and I am upset

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<v Speaker 1>and you have to do something about that.

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<v Speaker 2>So I get this is okay. Now I get how

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<v Speaker 2>this makes sense. And I guess this is like a

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<v Speaker 2>phenomenon throughout history that if you're buying actual physical stuff,

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<v Speaker 2>there is a question of you enter into a contract,

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<v Speaker 2>did you actually get the stuff? Is the stuff that

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<v Speaker 2>the stuff that the person said they were going to

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<v Speaker 2>give you? Is it actually what it is? Is it real?

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<v Speaker 5>That's exactly it?

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<v Speaker 1>And how do you check beforehand to see whether or

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<v Speaker 1>not the stuff that you're going to be getting is

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<v Speaker 1>the stuff that was promised to you. These are ancient,

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<v Speaker 1>ancient problems. And the weird thing is it seems like

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<v Speaker 1>the commodities world hasn't actually progressed that much from cuneiform

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<v Speaker 1>tablets written on stone to what we use today, which

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<v Speaker 1>is mostly paperwork.

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<v Speaker 2>I remember an episode we did with Dan Davies several

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<v Speaker 2>years ago, and we talked about the salad oil scandal.

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<v Speaker 2>The fame is one where the guy like filled up

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<v Speaker 2>those tanks filled with water and then put a thin

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<v Speaker 2>layer of oil, and they came and they checked and

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<v Speaker 2>they're like, oh, these tanks are oil, and he was

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<v Speaker 2>able to borrow against them. Warren Buffett made a bunch

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<v Speaker 2>in the crash of all the entities that were associated

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<v Speaker 2>with it. But this stuff always fascinates me because I

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<v Speaker 2>think these are the stories where there's something different between

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<v Speaker 2>just the lines we see on the chart, these abstracted

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<v Speaker 2>version of commodities versus like the actual handling of the

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<v Speaker 2>real thing.

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<v Speaker 1>Right, there's the financialized commodity, the line that you see

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<v Speaker 1>on an electronic screen, and then the actual commodity. The

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<v Speaker 1>two are supposed to match or relate, but they're not

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<v Speaker 1>one way or another. But they're definitely not the same thing.

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<v Speaker 1>And recently, one of the reasons we wanted to do

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<v Speaker 1>this episode is there have been a series of scandals

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<v Speaker 1>in commodities land that have to do with collateral management.

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<v Speaker 1>So the big one that springs to mind is Elemy

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<v Speaker 1>discovering that it had a bunch of rocks instead of

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<v Speaker 1>nickel backing some of its content, and this kind of

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<v Speaker 1>was a major talking point in commodities world.

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<v Speaker 2>Yeah, we recently did that interview with us CME chief

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<v Speaker 2>Terry Duffy, and he seemed to acknowledge that there's like

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<v Speaker 2>something about Nichols specifically that makes it susceptible to this

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<v Speaker 2>sort of deception. But we didn't really get into the details.

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<v Speaker 2>But this is just so fascinating that involves like heists

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<v Speaker 2>and scams and deceptions on the fraud and it's just

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<v Speaker 2>as you say, it's throughout history. So I'd love to

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<v Speaker 2>learn more about how this business works.

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<v Speaker 1>Yeah, why does the commodities world seem so sort of

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<v Speaker 1>ripe for these types of scandals. I'm very pleased to

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<v Speaker 1>say that we have truly the perfect guests. We are

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<v Speaker 1>going to be speaking with multi time, a lots guests

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<v Speaker 1>at the moment. Mercury Group CEO Anton Posner and Mercury

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<v Speaker 1>Group Coooh, Margo Brock, thank you so much for coming

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<v Speaker 1>back on all thoughts.

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<v Speaker 5>Thanks for having us.

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<v Speaker 3>Thank you great to be here.

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<v Speaker 1>So the last time we talked, I think we were

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<v Speaker 1>talking about the barge business and what was going on

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<v Speaker 1>in the Mississippi River. But walk us through your approach

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<v Speaker 1>to collateral management because this is a space that you

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<v Speaker 1>play in. I think you do some business for major

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<v Speaker 1>players such as the big banks, but what exactly do

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<v Speaker 1>you guys do in the field of collateral management.

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<v Speaker 3>Sure, yeah, I'll take the lead on that one trace. Again, First,

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<v Speaker 3>I'd just like to say, as that canneiform reference you made,

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<v Speaker 3>they're still fighting it out in court and Athens. Their

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<v Speaker 3>errors are still has not been resolved, so it's still

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<v Speaker 3>going on.

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<v Speaker 1>We can litigate it right now.

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<v Speaker 3>Yeah, exactly, it's continuing. So yeah, that's why I have

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<v Speaker 3>conneiform keyboard on my iPhone. So what we do We,

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<v Speaker 3>as you mentioned, we work for several major banks that

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<v Speaker 3>are involved in physical commodity finance and trade. In addition

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<v Speaker 3>to trading companies and producers and commodities, a certainly a

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<v Speaker 3>strong focus on metals and steel and raw materials that

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<v Speaker 3>go along with it. On the collateral management front, we

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<v Speaker 3>perform audits and inspections at facilities for banks and financiers

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<v Speaker 3>that are financing physical commodities to do some initial vetting work,

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<v Speaker 3>finding out the procedures, diving into the everything from the

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<v Speaker 3>ownership and the procedures and the personnel that are involved

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<v Speaker 3>in issuance of documentation to who's going to be the

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<v Speaker 3>primary point of communication, how are they keeping track of

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<v Speaker 3>who owns what? And so forth. That is the pre

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<v Speaker 3>work that's done preliminary ahead of a finance deal. And

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<v Speaker 3>then once there are physical commodities in place, we're doing

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<v Speaker 3>jobs like having auditors go out and count physical metal

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<v Speaker 3>accounting bundles of aluminum, ingots and warehouse for banks to

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<v Speaker 3>verify what's there. And even to the point where we have,

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<v Speaker 3>through our subcontract or partners, flying drones to measure the

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<v Speaker 3>heights an angle of repose of stockpiles of coal, for example,

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<v Speaker 3>to verify approximately how many tons are in stockpile for

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<v Speaker 3>banks that are financing drybulk commodities like that.

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<v Speaker 2>I have a question before we get into like the

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<v Speaker 2>various frauds and deceptions, why do we take like a

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<v Speaker 2>very sort of simple, sort of vanilla instance of how

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<v Speaker 2>trade would work. Like suppose Tracy has a bunch of

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<v Speaker 2>oil and she wants to pledge it borrow some money

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<v Speaker 2>from me, and I would need to make sure that

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<v Speaker 2>she actually has the oil and she actually.

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<v Speaker 4>Oil.

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<v Speaker 3>Is the old story, right.

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<v Speaker 2>Yeah, Tracy is coal. She doesn't want she wants to

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<v Speaker 2>borrow against it, get some liquidity for it. I say, yeah,

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<v Speaker 2>I want to. I'm happy to lend against your coal. Tracy,

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<v Speaker 2>but I need some proof that it's there. She goes

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<v Speaker 2>to you, what's like the basic steps of the process.

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<v Speaker 2>What do you produce for me?

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<v Speaker 3>Sure the you know, initially, and we work with our clients,

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<v Speaker 3>with our bank and trading clients to determine what level

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<v Speaker 3>they want to go down, how far they want to

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<v Speaker 3>go down the rabbit hole in terms of analyzing, okay,

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<v Speaker 3>I mean you could could be the point of sending

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<v Speaker 3>a survey or out taking samples, sending it to a

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<v Speaker 3>pre agreed laboratory that expertise in that particular commodity to

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<v Speaker 3>verify the quality that's there. Of course, the quantity inspection

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<v Speaker 3>is important, right, verifying that the quantity matches what Tracy's

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<v Speaker 3>declaring to the bank or the financier. So verifying the

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<v Speaker 3>quality the volume, and then also verifying and working to

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<v Speaker 3>ensure that the facility that it's being stored at Tracy's

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<v Speaker 3>house in Connecticut may may not past monster in terms

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<v Speaker 3>of a secure collateral.

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<v Speaker 1>Squirrels that have made exactly within.

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<v Speaker 3>The exactly the biomass that's mixed in exactly right, So

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<v Speaker 3>so ensuring that right. And we have clients that sometimes

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<v Speaker 3>don't want us to go that deep. Sometimes it's just volume.

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<v Speaker 3>But we're not taking samples for qualities and so forth.

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<v Speaker 3>So we're our initial approach with a one of our

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<v Speaker 3>clients that hire us for collateral management services is determining

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<v Speaker 3>how far how far down they want to go.

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<v Speaker 1>I was going to ask how much of this depends

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<v Speaker 1>on the sample size, because it seems like an easy

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<v Speaker 1>thing for me to do if I was worried about

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<v Speaker 1>the quality of my coal is I don't know, I

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<v Speaker 1>would get a really nice piece of anthracite from somewhere

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<v Speaker 1>else and say here, here's a sample of my coal.

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<v Speaker 3>Sure.

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<v Speaker 4>Yeah, Well, most importantly, if you're going to draw samples,

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<v Speaker 4>it's going to be randomized, and you're going to have

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<v Speaker 4>a certain percentage of the cargo that has to be sampled.

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<v Speaker 4>If it's quite a large stockpile of coal, you know

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<v Speaker 4>you're going to want a lot of representative samples from

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<v Speaker 4>different sides, different angles, top bottoms, and quite so people

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<v Speaker 4>can't pick the most attractive piece of anthracites run out there.

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<v Speaker 4>So it really does depend on the parcel size that

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<v Speaker 4>you're talking about.

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<v Speaker 1>I mean, you've just laid out how it's supposed to

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<v Speaker 1>go in the theory, and yet what we've seen recently

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<v Speaker 1>is numerous examples of people fooling the auditors, people fooling

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<v Speaker 1>the inspectors, sometimes in kind of amusing ways with painted

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<v Speaker 1>rocks and things like that. So what's going on there?

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<v Speaker 3>Uh? I mean there's a lot of opportunity for fraud

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<v Speaker 3>at all levels, at all all the facets right that

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<v Speaker 3>of this process. As you said, going back you know

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<v Speaker 3>to the Phoenicians right in there in their complaints. So

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<v Speaker 3>there's no nothing, nothing much has changed except the methods

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<v Speaker 3>of which communication has. But you know the things that

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<v Speaker 3>could go wrong where you had the recent traffic Aura

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<v Speaker 3>mess uh there with a thousand containers of what appears

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<v Speaker 3>to be steel discs or fake nickel. And then there

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<v Speaker 3>was other other examples that Henleyong scandal in Singapore for example,

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<v Speaker 3>where you had the warehousemen that was storing the petroleum

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<v Speaker 3>oil in this case was issuing issuing documentation to multiple

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<v Speaker 3>financiers for the same exact stocks. You had a that's

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<v Speaker 3>a situation where it wasn't the supplier that was the problem,

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<v Speaker 3>but rather the facility that was doing the storage, which

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<v Speaker 3>which has been a problem.

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<v Speaker 2>Well, so I was going to ask and it's the

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<v Speaker 2>sort of perfect your answer, because I was going to

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<v Speaker 2>add on to Tracy's like, do entities become vulnerable when

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<v Speaker 2>they work with the same counterparties over and over again

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<v Speaker 2>and just sort of like drop their guard essentially, like, oh,

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<v Speaker 2>this is the way we've always done it. There's the

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<v Speaker 2>way we've always done it. And then someone figures out

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<v Speaker 2>how to enter into that relationship that's existed for a

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<v Speaker 2>long time. Like maybe the first time Tracy pledges are

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<v Speaker 2>called to me, like I do a big inspection, but

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<v Speaker 2>by the tenth time, like, yeah, I know you're good

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<v Speaker 2>for it. But is that when fraud starts?

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<v Speaker 4>Absolutely, because you get complacent and you let your guard down,

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<v Speaker 4>like anything else in life. So these long standing relationships

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<v Speaker 4>that have always just run on autopilot, and someday some

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<v Speaker 4>guy has a great idea of how he's going to

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<v Speaker 4>fool the system and make money. So yeah, I think

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<v Speaker 4>you have to keep the guard up. You have to

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<v Speaker 4>have your checks and balances in place from the beginning

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<v Speaker 4>of that relationship straight through to the end.

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<v Speaker 5>That's why they exist.

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<v Speaker 4>Once you drop your checks and balances, that's when you

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<v Speaker 4>stop being a.

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<v Speaker 1>Of all use that you know, looking at what you have,

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<v Speaker 1>so Here's a really basic question because I you know,

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<v Speaker 1>we all read a little bit about the traffic Era

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<v Speaker 1>and LME scandal, but everyone was focused on those very

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<v Speaker 1>big names for obvious reasons. But what happened to the

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<v Speaker 1>alleged fraudster? Do they just disappear with the money? I

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<v Speaker 1>imagine their business of commodity shipping and producing is pretty

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<v Speaker 1>moot at that point, right.

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<v Speaker 3>Yeah, the producer in India, and on the Nickel situation,

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<v Speaker 3>I'm sure is untouchable at this point in terms of

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<v Speaker 3>ability to transact with other anyone else really at this point.

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<v Speaker 4>He also but he also got half a billion dollars,

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<v Speaker 4>so he's fine.

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<v Speaker 2>Yeah, And there's no like real obvious recourse against.

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<v Speaker 3>The trafficker is pursuing. You know, we don't certainly don't

0:12:06.760 --> 0:12:08.800
<v Speaker 3>know the ins and outs of right, We're not we're

0:12:08.800 --> 0:12:10.880
<v Speaker 3>not involved in that, so be clear on that. Right.

0:12:10.920 --> 0:12:15.000
<v Speaker 3>So we're we're reading what transpired from news reports, right,

0:12:15.040 --> 0:12:18.160
<v Speaker 3>but we you know, it looks like they're pursuing legal

0:12:18.320 --> 0:12:22.280
<v Speaker 3>avenues to to to go after them, but that's going

0:12:22.320 --> 0:12:23.719
<v Speaker 3>to be long and drawn out.

0:12:24.000 --> 0:12:26.240
<v Speaker 2>It just to be clear on Nickel, and I think

0:12:26.240 --> 0:12:28.640
<v Speaker 2>this is something Terry Duffy when we talk to him,

0:12:28.640 --> 0:12:31.079
<v Speaker 2>he's like, there's something about nickel. It's that it's in bags, right,

0:12:31.160 --> 0:12:33.280
<v Speaker 2>Like some metal is like stacked you see it, and

0:12:33.320 --> 0:12:38.080
<v Speaker 2>so everything what would be an ideal form of auditing.

0:12:38.160 --> 0:12:40.400
<v Speaker 2>I can't imagine open every bag, but what.

0:12:40.360 --> 0:12:41.880
<v Speaker 5>Is opening some bags?

0:12:41.920 --> 0:12:42.199
<v Speaker 3>Okay?

0:12:42.320 --> 0:12:47.520
<v Speaker 4>Yeah, again it becomes that randomized audit, that randomized sampling,

0:12:47.600 --> 0:12:50.160
<v Speaker 4>and you do have to you have to look and

0:12:50.200 --> 0:12:52.680
<v Speaker 4>you have to go in and say, let's you know,

0:12:52.679 --> 0:12:54.839
<v Speaker 4>it's all stacked in the warehouse, let's break some down,

0:12:54.960 --> 0:12:57.800
<v Speaker 4>Let's pull it out, and let's just at a minimum

0:12:57.960 --> 0:12:59.520
<v Speaker 4>open the top of the bags and look in.

0:13:01.400 --> 0:13:04.160
<v Speaker 3>Also is going to say two Nickel is a much

0:13:04.160 --> 0:13:08.800
<v Speaker 3>more higher value metal versus aluminum, let's say, or zinc.

0:13:09.240 --> 0:13:12.600
<v Speaker 3>So it's like counterfeiting. If you're going to counterfeit bills,

0:13:12.600 --> 0:13:15.280
<v Speaker 3>you can probably counterfeit if taking the time to do

0:13:15.320 --> 0:13:17.199
<v Speaker 3>what you're going to be doing one hundred dollars bills, right,

0:13:17.280 --> 0:13:19.960
<v Speaker 3>rather than focusing on counterfeiting on dollar bills.

0:13:20.360 --> 0:13:24.600
<v Speaker 2>Nickel so in bags high value.

0:13:25.040 --> 0:13:27.640
<v Speaker 4>And there's really been two different types of fraud on it,

0:13:27.720 --> 0:13:31.560
<v Speaker 4>and one is the Indian one that traffic Goor is

0:13:31.600 --> 0:13:35.200
<v Speaker 4>involved in is during shipment. So by the time it

0:13:35.360 --> 0:13:40.160
<v Speaker 4>lands where it's headed, the last containers are already afloat

0:13:40.480 --> 0:13:43.839
<v Speaker 4>and everything, all the documents are presented and everyone's been paid,

0:13:44.360 --> 0:13:46.880
<v Speaker 4>so they haven't had the opportunity to open doors on

0:13:46.920 --> 0:13:49.720
<v Speaker 4>that very first container that's shipped to even look and

0:13:49.760 --> 0:13:52.440
<v Speaker 4>find their fraud. So that fraud you have to really

0:13:52.760 --> 0:13:55.800
<v Speaker 4>concentrate on combating at load.

0:13:56.679 --> 0:13:59.160
<v Speaker 5>And then there's the fraud of the rocks that were.

0:13:59.040 --> 0:14:01.760
<v Speaker 4>In the nickel bags, and that was in warehouse for

0:14:01.880 --> 0:14:06.480
<v Speaker 4>years and years, but again nobody.

0:14:05.200 --> 0:14:06.280
<v Speaker 5>Opened up the bags there.

0:14:06.960 --> 0:14:09.480
<v Speaker 4>So there's you know, like Anton said, it's a system

0:14:09.880 --> 0:14:12.160
<v Speaker 4>as old as time, and there's so many points within

0:14:12.160 --> 0:14:15.360
<v Speaker 4>that system where fraud can happen and theft happens and

0:14:15.400 --> 0:14:17.160
<v Speaker 4>the opportunities present themselves.

0:14:17.280 --> 0:14:19.760
<v Speaker 1>So just on this note, I mean, my impression is

0:14:19.800 --> 0:14:22.040
<v Speaker 1>that one of the issues here and one of the

0:14:22.080 --> 0:14:25.640
<v Speaker 1>reasons why the commodities world is susceptible to this type

0:14:25.640 --> 0:14:27.840
<v Speaker 1>of fraud is, you know, not just that you can

0:14:28.400 --> 0:14:31.960
<v Speaker 1>fake nickel by using some rocks put in a bag,

0:14:32.080 --> 0:14:34.840
<v Speaker 1>but also so much of it relies on paperwork and

0:14:34.960 --> 0:14:37.920
<v Speaker 1>you know, invoices and trade receivables and things like that.

0:14:37.960 --> 0:14:40.520
<v Speaker 1>Can you talk a little bit about why that is

0:14:40.680 --> 0:14:43.840
<v Speaker 1>and how endemic it is in your line of business.

0:14:44.320 --> 0:14:48.520
<v Speaker 3>Sure on the paper referring to the paperwork side rate paperwork.

0:14:48.960 --> 0:14:51.360
<v Speaker 3>The documents that go along with a shimment are fairly

0:14:51.480 --> 0:14:56.920
<v Speaker 3>easy to forge, right, So the quality certificates that went

0:14:56.960 --> 0:15:00.240
<v Speaker 3>along with that nickel coming out of India, or the

0:15:00.240 --> 0:15:05.000
<v Speaker 3>the paperwork. Let's take the Henleyong situation, right, the documentation,

0:15:05.080 --> 0:15:08.520
<v Speaker 3>the warehouse receipts, the holding certificates that went to the

0:15:08.800 --> 0:15:12.880
<v Speaker 3>to the banks to show that that there was ownership, right,

0:15:13.280 --> 0:15:17.360
<v Speaker 3>can are just printed off off a computer, signed and stamped.

0:15:17.360 --> 0:15:21.280
<v Speaker 3>It's fairly easy to to make these documents and send

0:15:21.280 --> 0:15:23.920
<v Speaker 3>them along, So it's the doc The paperwork is only

0:15:24.400 --> 0:15:27.560
<v Speaker 3>as good as the counter party that's that's drawing it up.

0:15:27.640 --> 0:15:33.480
<v Speaker 3>So it's the old trust. But verify premise, as Margo said, right,

0:15:34.680 --> 0:15:38.800
<v Speaker 3>taking representative samples, not just you know the paperwork really

0:15:39.680 --> 0:15:42.240
<v Speaker 3>really is to go along with a but it has

0:15:42.320 --> 0:15:44.480
<v Speaker 3>to be part of a part of the bigger process.

0:15:44.600 --> 0:15:48.440
<v Speaker 2>Right. So obviously one way of fighting fraud is, as

0:15:48.480 --> 0:15:51.280
<v Speaker 2>you say, go in the bags, rip open a bunch,

0:15:51.560 --> 0:15:55.360
<v Speaker 2>do samples. The other way to engage in fraud that

0:15:55.400 --> 0:15:57.480
<v Speaker 2>you've sort of hinted up and haven't talked about as much.

0:15:57.600 --> 0:16:02.120
<v Speaker 2>Is Tracy comes to me asks for money against her call,

0:16:02.400 --> 0:16:05.080
<v Speaker 2>but also does it for like six or seven entities

0:16:06.040 --> 0:16:09.120
<v Speaker 2>over pledges. So what are some of the checks that

0:16:09.160 --> 0:16:12.240
<v Speaker 2>you do or that a party should do to avoid

0:16:12.360 --> 0:16:14.480
<v Speaker 2>or prevent multiple pledged collateral.

0:16:14.600 --> 0:16:16.720
<v Speaker 3>Yeah, and this is a it's a tougher one. Yeah,

0:16:16.720 --> 0:16:19.760
<v Speaker 3>because let's go back to the to the ching Dao

0:16:20.040 --> 0:16:24.760
<v Speaker 3>scandal in China ten plus years ago. I believe where

0:16:25.280 --> 0:16:32.080
<v Speaker 3>the Western warehousing companies LM warehousing companies in China doesn't

0:16:32.080 --> 0:16:34.600
<v Speaker 3>have Linda Metal Exchange warehouses. So these are the same

0:16:34.640 --> 0:16:40.040
<v Speaker 3>companies that had subcontracted warehouses in ching Dao storing copper

0:16:40.160 --> 0:16:44.160
<v Speaker 3>and other metals, and the warehouse been there. There was

0:16:44.160 --> 0:16:47.360
<v Speaker 3>a couple of warehouses in ching Dao that were subcontracted

0:16:47.360 --> 0:16:53.359
<v Speaker 3>by the LEM warehousing companies and they were in cahoots

0:16:53.400 --> 0:16:57.640
<v Speaker 3>with some of the local traders there to double triple,

0:16:57.760 --> 0:17:03.400
<v Speaker 3>quadruple pledge these of copper to multiple banks. So they'd say, right,

0:17:03.400 --> 0:17:05.760
<v Speaker 3>you got a ten thousand tons of copper cathodes sitting

0:17:05.800 --> 0:17:10.920
<v Speaker 3>in there, and the local warehouse ban was issuing warehouse

0:17:10.960 --> 0:17:15.239
<v Speaker 3>receipt to multiple multiple banks. And financing entities for that

0:17:15.320 --> 0:17:21.520
<v Speaker 3>same stack of copper, unbeknownst to the warehousing company that

0:17:21.680 --> 0:17:25.680
<v Speaker 3>was contracting contracting with them. So they thought the western

0:17:25.720 --> 0:17:28.520
<v Speaker 3>warehousing companies or the large lumy wareusing companies thought that

0:17:28.560 --> 0:17:32.600
<v Speaker 3>they were that their Chinese subcontractor was doing the right

0:17:32.640 --> 0:17:36.080
<v Speaker 3>thing and being honorable, but was really handing out paper

0:17:37.280 --> 0:17:39.439
<v Speaker 3>left and right right for the same stack of metal.

0:17:39.720 --> 0:17:42.280
<v Speaker 4>And I would say, if Joe was looking to finance

0:17:42.320 --> 0:17:44.880
<v Speaker 4>Tracy's coal, you don't want to do it on Tracy's

0:17:44.920 --> 0:17:48.359
<v Speaker 4>property because Tracy retains retains control of it.

0:17:49.359 --> 0:17:51.280
<v Speaker 5>And that's going to be Yeah, that's going to be

0:17:51.359 --> 0:17:52.160
<v Speaker 5>step number one.

0:17:52.160 --> 0:17:54.800
<v Speaker 4>I want your call somewhere where I have a trusted

0:17:54.960 --> 0:17:58.760
<v Speaker 4>third party controlling it and hopefully issuing only one warehouse

0:17:58.760 --> 0:17:59.879
<v Speaker 4>receipt on it, so.

0:18:00.000 --> 0:18:02.600
<v Speaker 2>It would be the warehouse. So in the process of

0:18:02.600 --> 0:18:06.080
<v Speaker 2>getting that confirmation, it would be the warehouse sort of

0:18:06.160 --> 0:18:08.400
<v Speaker 2>vouching for it, and then it would be on them.

0:18:08.600 --> 0:18:10.680
<v Speaker 2>It would be on the warehouse, like would be the

0:18:10.720 --> 0:18:12.919
<v Speaker 2>one breaking the law, being complicit and breaking the law

0:18:12.960 --> 0:18:13.960
<v Speaker 2>if they were sending.

0:18:13.680 --> 0:18:15.720
<v Speaker 5>It out to right, which is what happened in Chindawn

0:18:15.840 --> 0:18:16.200
<v Speaker 5>got it.

0:18:16.480 --> 0:18:18.920
<v Speaker 3>And Marker brings up a really good point, and often

0:18:18.960 --> 0:18:22.840
<v Speaker 3>we've had multiple conversations over the years about providing collateral

0:18:22.880 --> 0:18:27.920
<v Speaker 3>management services for stock retained at a customers or at

0:18:27.920 --> 0:18:31.760
<v Speaker 3>a at a facility that's controlled by the entity that's

0:18:31.840 --> 0:18:35.880
<v Speaker 3>getting that's benefiting from the financing. Right. So, as Margo said,

0:18:35.880 --> 0:18:40.440
<v Speaker 3>with that's always a more complicated collateral management approach. Then

0:18:40.480 --> 0:18:44.000
<v Speaker 3>you have to have regular inspections verify that when the

0:18:44.080 --> 0:18:47.240
<v Speaker 3>inspector is not there, is that material being taken being

0:18:47.640 --> 0:18:51.560
<v Speaker 3>being taken out right? We were We did a a

0:18:51.640 --> 0:18:57.159
<v Speaker 3>similar project for inbound steel slab going into a rolling

0:18:57.200 --> 0:19:01.560
<v Speaker 3>mill in Ohio. This and the bank that we were

0:19:01.560 --> 0:19:04.480
<v Speaker 3>working for on that one was financing the steel slab,

0:19:04.520 --> 0:19:07.120
<v Speaker 3>but it was on the property of the rolling mill,

0:19:07.480 --> 0:19:10.439
<v Speaker 3>and then the bank would would have possession of the

0:19:10.520 --> 0:19:13.720
<v Speaker 3>slab but also the coils steel coils that were rolled

0:19:13.760 --> 0:19:16.639
<v Speaker 3>from that slab afterward. That meant we had to send

0:19:16.720 --> 0:19:20.480
<v Speaker 3>in Mercury or predecessor predecessor company. We had to send

0:19:20.480 --> 0:19:24.439
<v Speaker 3>in inspectors regularly to verify what was there. Did they

0:19:24.480 --> 0:19:27.120
<v Speaker 3>did the mill take more slabs than they were supposed

0:19:27.160 --> 0:19:30.320
<v Speaker 3>to from the stock that was that was dedicated to

0:19:30.359 --> 0:19:36.520
<v Speaker 3>that particular bank And in one case, Margo uncovered interesting situation.

0:19:37.640 --> 0:19:41.959
<v Speaker 4>Fraud and it was only detected simply because we were

0:19:42.000 --> 0:19:46.119
<v Speaker 4>working on behalf of both banks that were financing the

0:19:46.240 --> 0:19:48.760
<v Speaker 4>slab and the ultimate hot rolled coil that were coming

0:19:48.800 --> 0:19:51.720
<v Speaker 4>out of the slab. So at the end of each

0:19:51.800 --> 0:19:54.640
<v Speaker 4>day there was a pledge list of you know, we've

0:19:54.800 --> 0:19:58.159
<v Speaker 4>we've removed this much slab from your inventory by you know,

0:19:58.240 --> 0:20:02.239
<v Speaker 4>specific piece number, and to balance out the value, you

0:20:02.480 --> 0:20:04.399
<v Speaker 4>now have this stack of coils and these are the

0:20:04.440 --> 0:20:07.280
<v Speaker 4>numbers of your coils. And this happens on a daily basis,

0:20:07.280 --> 0:20:09.320
<v Speaker 4>and all those reports came to us and basically it

0:20:09.359 --> 0:20:12.560
<v Speaker 4>was a simple overlay of reports and we started identifying

0:20:12.600 --> 0:20:13.960
<v Speaker 4>coils that were double pledged.

0:20:14.680 --> 0:20:17.680
<v Speaker 2>Sorry explain that an overlay of reports? What does that mean?

0:20:18.160 --> 0:20:21.840
<v Speaker 4>Just taking both inventory reports, both daily declarations to each

0:20:21.880 --> 0:20:24.440
<v Speaker 4>of each of the banks, oh and doing them side

0:20:24.440 --> 0:20:27.320
<v Speaker 4>by side to look and start realizing that we had

0:20:27.320 --> 0:20:29.879
<v Speaker 4>a handful of coils that were pledged to both banks.

0:20:30.119 --> 0:20:32.959
<v Speaker 1>So out of curiosity, how much was that slab and

0:20:33.000 --> 0:20:35.879
<v Speaker 1>the coils worth? And the reason I ask is because

0:20:36.160 --> 0:20:40.880
<v Speaker 1>this seems like a lot of work and very granular risk, right,

0:20:40.960 --> 0:20:44.879
<v Speaker 1>granular high risk, and I kind of wonder, I wonder

0:20:44.960 --> 0:20:48.400
<v Speaker 1>about the incentive structure here. If there are commodities dealers

0:20:48.440 --> 0:20:51.640
<v Speaker 1>out there who basically say, this is a risk we're

0:20:51.680 --> 0:20:53.879
<v Speaker 1>willing to take. We're going to find someone, you know,

0:20:53.960 --> 0:20:57.200
<v Speaker 1>a warehouse or whoever with the least amount of paper work,

0:20:57.320 --> 0:21:00.880
<v Speaker 1>the least bureaucratic process to go through. Because this all

0:21:00.920 --> 0:21:01.960
<v Speaker 1>seems like quite a lot.

0:21:02.160 --> 0:21:06.120
<v Speaker 3>Yeah. This the value of the slabs a few hundred

0:21:06.160 --> 0:21:08.080
<v Speaker 3>bucks a ton, and then they were when they were

0:21:08.119 --> 0:21:10.440
<v Speaker 3>rolled in. The coils were added value at that point,

0:21:10.480 --> 0:21:12.640
<v Speaker 3>So add on another one hundred bucks a ton. I'm

0:21:12.640 --> 0:21:16.320
<v Speaker 3>certainly not a steel pricing expert, right, but but that

0:21:16.520 --> 0:21:20.159
<v Speaker 3>was just just to give you approximate value. But Tracy,

0:21:20.200 --> 0:21:24.920
<v Speaker 3>were seeing just on your question, right, We're seeing banks

0:21:24.960 --> 0:21:29.240
<v Speaker 3>that bailed out of commodity trade finance because of these problems.

0:21:29.280 --> 0:21:32.399
<v Speaker 3>Ab an Amorro being Paraba a couple of years ago

0:21:32.800 --> 0:21:35.400
<v Speaker 3>announced that they were getting out of a lot, some

0:21:35.440 --> 0:21:39.600
<v Speaker 3>significant portion of their physical commodity trade. It's left a

0:21:39.720 --> 0:21:43.800
<v Speaker 3>smaller group of trader of banks that are willing to

0:21:44.000 --> 0:21:46.920
<v Speaker 3>get involved in this at this point, which has opened

0:21:46.960 --> 0:21:48.960
<v Speaker 3>up the door to some of the some of the

0:21:49.119 --> 0:21:53.240
<v Speaker 3>less scrupulous ones take the Green Cell disaster right using

0:21:53.240 --> 0:21:54.400
<v Speaker 3>their disaster.

0:21:54.080 --> 0:21:56.439
<v Speaker 2>There, Yeah, because I don't think of that in the

0:21:56.520 --> 0:21:59.800
<v Speaker 2>same category. So yeah, different yea, So how is green

0:22:00.080 --> 0:22:01.159
<v Speaker 2>all fit into the story?

0:22:01.760 --> 0:22:05.159
<v Speaker 3>And Green still pretty basically it boils down for the

0:22:05.200 --> 0:22:09.760
<v Speaker 3>most part to an entity Green Seal Capital, that that

0:22:09.960 --> 0:22:12.720
<v Speaker 3>was too close with one of the steel steel producers.

0:22:12.760 --> 0:22:19.320
<v Speaker 3>They were financing trades uh that were that involved the

0:22:19.359 --> 0:22:23.000
<v Speaker 3>steel producer. The bank that the steel producer owned was

0:22:23.000 --> 0:22:24.760
<v Speaker 3>was heavily involved in uh.

0:22:24.920 --> 0:22:29.879
<v Speaker 4>In trade receivable, trade receivable, but also future sales.

0:22:30.920 --> 0:22:36.320
<v Speaker 5>Yeah, so you don't even have anything to secure.

0:22:35.960 --> 0:22:39.760
<v Speaker 3>That set right, So and fake invoices that were presented

0:22:39.840 --> 0:22:43.280
<v Speaker 3>to Green Salt to finance, and Green Salt was backed

0:22:43.280 --> 0:22:45.800
<v Speaker 3>by Credit Swee and we know where Credit sweez is

0:22:45.840 --> 0:22:48.480
<v Speaker 3>at these days, so none of this worked out well.

0:22:48.359 --> 0:22:53.440
<v Speaker 2>For the number of credit stepped over the exactly.

0:22:53.520 --> 0:22:56.600
<v Speaker 3>I mean, this was one of you know, massive uh

0:22:56.960 --> 0:22:59.560
<v Speaker 3>you know, massive strike against against the bank. And of

0:22:59.560 --> 0:23:02.119
<v Speaker 3>course now look where they are, right and it's merged

0:23:02.160 --> 0:23:05.760
<v Speaker 3>into ubs. But you know, this was the situations Marko

0:23:05.840 --> 0:23:09.439
<v Speaker 3>mentioned the future receivables which was never made clear to

0:23:09.520 --> 0:23:11.879
<v Speaker 3>Credit Sweee and they are investors in the funds that

0:23:11.920 --> 0:23:16.240
<v Speaker 3>were backing Green sell that they weren't financing physical sales,

0:23:16.280 --> 0:23:20.840
<v Speaker 3>they were financing theoretical sales. I mean when you read

0:23:21.400 --> 0:23:25.400
<v Speaker 3>what transpired there, you know, I think, you know, our

0:23:25.600 --> 0:23:27.919
<v Speaker 3>teenage kids could have figured out that this was a

0:23:27.960 --> 0:23:28.879
<v Speaker 3>bad deal.

0:23:29.240 --> 0:23:31.600
<v Speaker 2>So it's one thing to be a future receivable, and

0:23:31.640 --> 0:23:34.119
<v Speaker 2>a future sale may one day become a receivable, but

0:23:34.200 --> 0:23:38.919
<v Speaker 2>it's clearly not the same thing by an exactly you

0:23:39.080 --> 0:23:41.520
<v Speaker 2>mentioned the banks have gotten out of this business. So

0:23:41.600 --> 0:23:44.160
<v Speaker 2>this is not just like that's interesting to me because

0:23:44.240 --> 0:23:48.479
<v Speaker 2>that implies it's not just the occasional idiosyncratic thing that

0:23:48.520 --> 0:23:50.600
<v Speaker 2>pops up on the news and becomes a scandal that

0:23:50.600 --> 0:23:52.719
<v Speaker 2>we talked about once every years, that it must be

0:23:52.800 --> 0:23:55.720
<v Speaker 2>like a big enough challenge for the industry that some

0:23:55.800 --> 0:23:57.960
<v Speaker 2>banks like this is not do you talk about like

0:23:58.200 --> 0:23:59.359
<v Speaker 2>how big are we talking about here?

0:24:00.359 --> 0:24:03.040
<v Speaker 3>Yeah, we've seen, you know, with EB and AMRO and

0:24:03.119 --> 0:24:06.080
<v Speaker 3>BNP Paraba getting out there were two major, two banks

0:24:06.080 --> 0:24:08.800
<v Speaker 3>that were major had a major presence in the physical

0:24:08.800 --> 0:24:13.080
<v Speaker 3>commodity uh physical commodity trade. So it's left the banks

0:24:13.480 --> 0:24:17.600
<v Speaker 3>that are that are left in it. I N G. Rabobank,

0:24:17.920 --> 0:24:20.560
<v Speaker 3>Brown Brothers, Harriman here in New York of course, UH

0:24:20.680 --> 0:24:22.840
<v Speaker 3>JP Morgan Chase and so forth. But it's left a

0:24:22.920 --> 0:24:26.000
<v Speaker 3>dwindling number of banks that have the appetite for getting

0:24:26.440 --> 0:24:31.239
<v Speaker 3>getting involved in physical commodity UH trade finance. And in

0:24:31.280 --> 0:24:33.919
<v Speaker 3>this way, look at what happened with on the Trafficura

0:24:34.040 --> 0:24:36.200
<v Speaker 3>part of this part of the story. And certainly again

0:24:36.240 --> 0:24:39.359
<v Speaker 3>not an expert and exactly what happened, but City Bank

0:24:39.440 --> 0:24:43.680
<v Speaker 3>bailed out of financing those nickel trades with that particular supplier.

0:24:44.040 --> 0:24:47.040
<v Speaker 3>I think it was about a year before, maybe before

0:24:47.080 --> 0:24:49.840
<v Speaker 3>the problem became evident, So there was must have been

0:24:49.840 --> 0:24:52.280
<v Speaker 3>some red flags that were that were coming up, and

0:24:52.440 --> 0:24:56.160
<v Speaker 3>City was was keen enough to be able to extract

0:24:56.240 --> 0:25:01.560
<v Speaker 3>themselves from that prior that left Trafficura in a situation

0:25:01.680 --> 0:25:05.600
<v Speaker 3>where we saw they went to non some non traditional

0:25:05.680 --> 0:25:10.760
<v Speaker 3>secondary finance entities to mitigate their risk. They weren't using

0:25:10.800 --> 0:25:14.720
<v Speaker 3>their own money for purchasing that nickel. They were using

0:25:15.680 --> 0:25:19.639
<v Speaker 3>trade finance trade finance company money that that ended up

0:25:19.640 --> 0:25:22.119
<v Speaker 3>getting caught up in the in the mess at this

0:25:22.160 --> 0:25:25.160
<v Speaker 3>point too. So it leads to the question of if

0:25:25.200 --> 0:25:29.639
<v Speaker 3>a major company like traffic Aura can't get bank level

0:25:29.920 --> 0:25:33.160
<v Speaker 3>interest rates to finance this, and they're going to the

0:25:33.200 --> 0:25:37.800
<v Speaker 3>secondary lenders, right that are much higher cost.

0:25:38.720 --> 0:25:42.560
<v Speaker 1>Why right, Well, I've seen some people draw a not

0:25:42.920 --> 0:25:46.840
<v Speaker 1>very subtle connection between like, Okay, the regulators put in

0:25:46.960 --> 0:25:50.960
<v Speaker 1>additional rules around trade financing because it's a risky business

0:25:51.000 --> 0:25:53.680
<v Speaker 1>for the banks. So a bunch of banks pulled out.

0:25:53.720 --> 0:25:57.359
<v Speaker 1>Now you have a smaller body of players, some of

0:25:57.480 --> 0:26:01.440
<v Speaker 1>varying qualities, and this might be one reason why we're

0:26:01.480 --> 0:26:04.760
<v Speaker 1>seeing more scandals because you don't have as much credit,

0:26:05.000 --> 0:26:08.680
<v Speaker 1>you don't have as big an ecosystem as you did previously.

0:26:08.960 --> 0:26:11.320
<v Speaker 1>Is there any truth to that claim?

0:26:11.800 --> 0:26:17.720
<v Speaker 3>Yeah, yeah, the certainly without with less lenders and less

0:26:17.760 --> 0:26:22.080
<v Speaker 3>participants in the in the field, right, it's it's concentrated

0:26:22.119 --> 0:26:25.399
<v Speaker 3>that risk into a smaller group of entities that are

0:26:25.440 --> 0:26:28.480
<v Speaker 3>willing the banks, the financiers that are that are doing

0:26:28.480 --> 0:26:31.240
<v Speaker 3>this type of this type of business. So I think

0:26:31.280 --> 0:26:35.720
<v Speaker 3>that there's some credence credence to that, but it ultimately

0:26:35.760 --> 0:26:38.400
<v Speaker 3>goes back still to the quality. Right, if we're talking

0:26:38.440 --> 0:26:42.640
<v Speaker 3>about financing aluminum coming out of an Alcoa smelter, it's

0:26:42.640 --> 0:26:47.440
<v Speaker 3>not quite the same as what traffic Goura got got

0:26:47.440 --> 0:26:50.440
<v Speaker 3>hooked into, or the problems with the uh, you know,

0:26:50.600 --> 0:26:55.320
<v Speaker 3>fake copper painted bricks and stuff. This was not this

0:26:55.400 --> 0:26:58.760
<v Speaker 3>metal was not coming out of a out of you know,

0:26:58.800 --> 0:27:02.320
<v Speaker 3>an al Co or Rio tin level of producer and

0:27:02.400 --> 0:27:06.080
<v Speaker 3>counter parties. So the minute you're going getting involved in

0:27:06.280 --> 0:27:10.120
<v Speaker 3>entities that are that may not have quite the level

0:27:10.119 --> 0:27:13.680
<v Speaker 3>of reputation as these major major producers have, you need

0:27:13.720 --> 0:27:17.560
<v Speaker 3>to start ramping up your level of collateral management and

0:27:17.600 --> 0:27:21.400
<v Speaker 3>oversight and uh and risk risk management. And I think

0:27:21.440 --> 0:27:24.639
<v Speaker 3>that's that's really where the problem is, where we see

0:27:25.280 --> 0:27:29.119
<v Speaker 3>regularly not not that desire to go as far as

0:27:29.119 --> 0:27:29.560
<v Speaker 3>they need to.

0:27:46.560 --> 0:27:50.240
<v Speaker 2>Can we talk about gold? The internet loves the occasional

0:27:50.280 --> 0:27:55.280
<v Speaker 2>story about gold theories like all the gold gold, Yeah,

0:27:55.560 --> 0:27:57.639
<v Speaker 2>all the gold that's in Fort Knox is actually a

0:27:57.680 --> 0:28:00.240
<v Speaker 2>brick and if painted, no one is inspected in fifty year.

0:28:00.280 --> 0:28:03.960
<v Speaker 2>You know, you just like see this constantly, constantly, what

0:28:04.080 --> 0:28:07.760
<v Speaker 2>kind of regular inspections are a is there gold? Is

0:28:07.760 --> 0:28:10.280
<v Speaker 2>there gold fraud? Is that a thing that exists in

0:28:10.400 --> 0:28:12.639
<v Speaker 2>terms of this is not gold or something painted or

0:28:12.960 --> 0:28:14.720
<v Speaker 2>that someone moved it out and no one has checked

0:28:14.720 --> 0:28:17.880
<v Speaker 2>the warehouse, and uh, how is gold inspected?

0:28:18.320 --> 0:28:21.600
<v Speaker 3>Yeah? Gold, gold is not something that we get involved.

0:28:21.600 --> 0:28:25.320
<v Speaker 3>We don't get involved in pressure spunels. So caveat. With

0:28:25.359 --> 0:28:29.000
<v Speaker 3>that that being said, uh, what are the inspection companies

0:28:29.040 --> 0:28:31.560
<v Speaker 3>that we that we work closely with? They have they

0:28:31.560 --> 0:28:34.040
<v Speaker 3>fly somebody down to the Cayman Islands every once in

0:28:34.040 --> 0:28:37.000
<v Speaker 3>a while to go into the bank vaults and check

0:28:37.000 --> 0:28:40.960
<v Speaker 3>out the gold, doesn't it. I thought that was fantastic.

0:28:41.480 --> 0:28:47.640
<v Speaker 2>Applying to say, I've never admitted this before. I was

0:28:47.760 --> 0:28:48.800
<v Speaker 2>I did this field trip.

0:28:48.920 --> 0:28:50.520
<v Speaker 1>I thought you were going to say you're a gold bug.

0:28:50.680 --> 0:28:53.480
<v Speaker 2>No. I did this field trip to the New York

0:28:53.520 --> 0:28:58.440
<v Speaker 2>fed when I was in high school. And they brought

0:28:58.480 --> 0:29:00.280
<v Speaker 2>us down to the gold vault and it was pretty cool,

0:29:00.280 --> 0:29:02.160
<v Speaker 2>and they showed us how like often like when one

0:29:02.280 --> 0:29:04.600
<v Speaker 2>entity like the I m F like sells gold to

0:29:04.640 --> 0:29:12.040
<v Speaker 2>another entity, like the gold is put on a palette locker.

0:29:12.360 --> 0:29:14.360
<v Speaker 2>But anyway, I was like standing next to the gold

0:29:14.480 --> 0:29:16.320
<v Speaker 2>and I like sort of scratched a little bit of

0:29:16.360 --> 0:29:18.480
<v Speaker 2>it myself and a couple of pieces of dust like

0:29:18.600 --> 0:29:20.040
<v Speaker 2>fell that like sort of freaked out.

0:29:20.400 --> 0:29:21.840
<v Speaker 5>But then he put it in his pocket.

0:29:21.920 --> 0:29:23.240
<v Speaker 2>No, it didn't turn it on the floor.

0:29:23.240 --> 0:29:25.120
<v Speaker 1>But I was like, oh, like that gold is that

0:29:25.200 --> 0:29:26.320
<v Speaker 1>must be a federal crime.

0:29:26.400 --> 0:29:30.800
<v Speaker 4>Yeah, I was just like, statue of limitations has expired.

0:29:30.920 --> 0:29:34.440
<v Speaker 2>This little pieces of dust fell throughout. I forgot freaked

0:29:34.480 --> 0:29:37.000
<v Speaker 2>out that was even possible. So somewhere there was a

0:29:37.080 --> 0:29:42.320
<v Speaker 2>golden get was just like a little I don't know anyway, Yeah, limitations,

0:29:42.640 --> 0:29:43.920
<v Speaker 2>I freaked out. I didn't take any of that.

0:29:45.040 --> 0:29:48.400
<v Speaker 3>Yeah, they see them pulling movies, right, pulling pulling the

0:29:48.440 --> 0:29:51.280
<v Speaker 3>gold around and these big palettes with these pulleys, and

0:29:51.960 --> 0:29:53.920
<v Speaker 3>not to dive too deep into gold because it's not

0:29:54.000 --> 0:29:56.800
<v Speaker 3>our ear of expertise, right, But same principles, right, if

0:29:56.840 --> 0:29:58.800
<v Speaker 3>you're flying down to the Cayman isons and you're going

0:29:58.840 --> 0:30:03.320
<v Speaker 3>to inspect gold old in this story, in this particular case,

0:30:03.400 --> 0:30:06.120
<v Speaker 3>one of the major global banks that was financing the

0:30:06.200 --> 0:30:09.760
<v Speaker 3>gold there in a vault in the Caymans. I'm not

0:30:09.840 --> 0:30:12.520
<v Speaker 3>sure what level of how far they took they went

0:30:12.560 --> 0:30:15.240
<v Speaker 3>as far as taking samples and setting into a lab

0:30:15.320 --> 0:30:17.280
<v Speaker 3>for analysis and so forth, or if it was just

0:30:17.360 --> 0:30:19.800
<v Speaker 3>a simple counting. But when you get into a simple

0:30:19.880 --> 0:30:24.680
<v Speaker 3>counting of gold bars, then you're just counting them, you're

0:30:24.720 --> 0:30:27.520
<v Speaker 3>not verifying that they're actually gold, and you might end

0:30:27.600 --> 0:30:29.920
<v Speaker 3>up with something you know that like is on that

0:30:30.040 --> 0:30:30.720
<v Speaker 3>table over there.

0:30:34.960 --> 0:30:40.040
<v Speaker 2>I thought we were gonna Yeah, so exactly what what

0:30:40.280 --> 0:30:41.800
<v Speaker 2>what is our takeaway from this problem.

0:30:41.960 --> 0:30:44.600
<v Speaker 3>Yeah, the takeaway is that I can count that as one,

0:30:44.760 --> 0:30:46.640
<v Speaker 3>but it doesn't mean that it's one bar of gold

0:30:46.720 --> 0:30:51.800
<v Speaker 3>one brick of gold, right, So just doing account and

0:30:52.320 --> 0:30:54.520
<v Speaker 3>is is only only one.

0:30:54.440 --> 0:30:57.160
<v Speaker 2>Story actually brought more And so I guess part of

0:30:57.240 --> 0:30:58.160
<v Speaker 2>the story could be.

0:30:59.760 --> 0:31:00.240
<v Speaker 3>This one.

0:31:02.280 --> 0:31:04.360
<v Speaker 2>How common is stuff like that? Because that actually is

0:31:04.480 --> 0:31:08.040
<v Speaker 2>not that different from even conceptually the Celling oil scandal, right,

0:31:08.080 --> 0:31:10.880
<v Speaker 2>which is like you have this layer of something legitimate.

0:31:11.200 --> 0:31:13.120
<v Speaker 2>So talk to us a little bit about like just

0:31:13.240 --> 0:31:14.880
<v Speaker 2>sort of like the way some of this can get

0:31:14.920 --> 0:31:17.440
<v Speaker 2>concealed if like the you know, the top layer or

0:31:17.480 --> 0:31:18.320
<v Speaker 2>something like that is.

0:31:18.560 --> 0:31:22.000
<v Speaker 4>Legit exactly what you said, you make those outer layers

0:31:22.040 --> 0:31:25.480
<v Speaker 4>look to be the right material, and then it's the

0:31:25.560 --> 0:31:29.840
<v Speaker 4>onus is on someone to be responsible and look inside, right, Yeah,

0:31:30.000 --> 0:31:33.200
<v Speaker 4>look inside that stack and see is it what you

0:31:33.320 --> 0:31:35.880
<v Speaker 4>think it is all the way through? Right? And again

0:31:35.960 --> 0:31:38.280
<v Speaker 4>that's just like I said, you know, early on you

0:31:38.400 --> 0:31:39.920
<v Speaker 4>talked about the nickel and maybe you do have to

0:31:39.960 --> 0:31:42.520
<v Speaker 4>get into the warehouse and occasionally say I want that

0:31:42.680 --> 0:31:45.480
<v Speaker 4>lot they're broken down and pull out all of them,

0:31:45.560 --> 0:31:47.360
<v Speaker 4>and I want to look inside the bags in the middle.

0:31:47.800 --> 0:31:49.640
<v Speaker 5>Don't forget that about the middle. That's where we all

0:31:49.840 --> 0:31:52.280
<v Speaker 5>you know, it's like the middle of the mashed potatoes.

0:31:51.920 --> 0:31:55.040
<v Speaker 2>Here your hdge of vegetables as a kid, like a

0:31:55.280 --> 0:31:57.840
<v Speaker 2>movie in which someone is convinced there's a fraud and

0:31:58.040 --> 0:32:00.680
<v Speaker 2>just goes through this like and just tearing bag after

0:32:00.800 --> 0:32:03.800
<v Speaker 2>bag and still like they're all, well, they slowly go

0:32:03.880 --> 0:32:05.440
<v Speaker 2>and sane, they know there's fraud.

0:32:05.240 --> 0:32:07.880
<v Speaker 3>And they finally get carted out for the warehouse but

0:32:07.960 --> 0:32:10.840
<v Speaker 3>has the right to charge for for the labor and

0:32:11.040 --> 0:32:13.920
<v Speaker 3>time to move all that stuff. So and warehouseman doesn't

0:32:13.920 --> 0:32:18.560
<v Speaker 3>carry but certainly whoever is perpetrating that potential fraud. I

0:32:18.640 --> 0:32:21.440
<v Speaker 3>think this goes to what Margo said earlier too about

0:32:21.480 --> 0:32:26.200
<v Speaker 3>the the repetition the comfort. Right if the inspector that

0:32:26.320 --> 0:32:28.800
<v Speaker 3>flies down down to the Cayman Islands to go inspect

0:32:28.800 --> 0:32:30.720
<v Speaker 3>for the bank shows up once a month and he

0:32:31.000 --> 0:32:34.360
<v Speaker 3>does the same thing and doesn't dive too deep, you know,

0:32:34.440 --> 0:32:38.000
<v Speaker 3>potential thief at that point. Could someone that says ulterior

0:32:38.080 --> 0:32:40.640
<v Speaker 3>motives could say, you got to mix it up. We

0:32:41.400 --> 0:32:44.320
<v Speaker 3>know that he's never going to go beyond just the

0:32:44.400 --> 0:32:46.280
<v Speaker 3>first first layer, right.

0:32:47.400 --> 0:32:49.680
<v Speaker 1>So one thing I wanted to ask is how often

0:32:49.880 --> 0:32:53.280
<v Speaker 1>maybe two questions how often does commodities fraud go hand

0:32:53.320 --> 0:32:56.400
<v Speaker 1>in hand with insurance fraud? Because I imagine a lot

0:32:56.440 --> 0:32:59.400
<v Speaker 1>of these dealers must have some insurance in place, although

0:32:59.440 --> 0:33:03.000
<v Speaker 1>I did read about Mercuria, I think, which thought it

0:33:03.080 --> 0:33:05.280
<v Speaker 1>had insurance and then it turned out that that insurance

0:33:05.360 --> 0:33:10.240
<v Speaker 1>was also fraudulent. And then secondly, secondly, just going back

0:33:10.240 --> 0:33:13.080
<v Speaker 1>to your example of the steel slabs, like what happened

0:33:13.360 --> 0:33:16.840
<v Speaker 1>after you discovered that? Do you start talking to the

0:33:16.920 --> 0:33:19.440
<v Speaker 1>counter parties? Do you make a claim for a loss?

0:33:19.720 --> 0:33:20.560
<v Speaker 1>How does it all work?

0:33:21.600 --> 0:33:26.440
<v Speaker 4>Settling that became easy in that we went back to

0:33:26.520 --> 0:33:30.880
<v Speaker 4>the facility. We went back to the steel mill and said,

0:33:31.600 --> 0:33:34.400
<v Speaker 4>you know, we've found a problem and you are double pledged,

0:33:34.600 --> 0:33:36.920
<v Speaker 4>and how are we going to rectify this? And they

0:33:37.160 --> 0:33:39.160
<v Speaker 4>looked at it and they said, okay, we're going to

0:33:39.280 --> 0:33:43.200
<v Speaker 4>rescind that report and republish it. And they said, you know,

0:33:43.360 --> 0:33:45.640
<v Speaker 4>citing it was just a clerical error, which it could

0:33:45.680 --> 0:33:48.320
<v Speaker 4>have been. And they definitely focused on what was the

0:33:48.520 --> 0:33:51.720
<v Speaker 4>more high profile, important bank that you would all know

0:33:52.080 --> 0:33:54.520
<v Speaker 4>favored counterparty, yes, who they really needed to make sure

0:33:54.520 --> 0:33:55.560
<v Speaker 4>they stayed in their good graces.

0:33:55.600 --> 0:33:57.680
<v Speaker 5>They said, don't touch that report and don't tell them anything.

0:34:00.240 --> 0:34:01.920
<v Speaker 5>The bigger one with the bigger line.

0:34:01.840 --> 0:34:04.360
<v Speaker 4>Is who got to keep the double pledged coils, and

0:34:04.520 --> 0:34:08.160
<v Speaker 4>they the secondary bank got a new list. But we

0:34:08.320 --> 0:34:11.719
<v Speaker 4>did have in that instance someone on site so we

0:34:11.840 --> 0:34:15.000
<v Speaker 4>could dispatch them at any point to go out with

0:34:15.120 --> 0:34:17.520
<v Speaker 4>the list and say, I need you to verify these coils.

0:34:17.800 --> 0:34:18.440
<v Speaker 5>And that's what you do.

0:34:18.560 --> 0:34:20.920
<v Speaker 4>You go out and you say to the warehouse owner

0:34:21.280 --> 0:34:24.480
<v Speaker 4>or the facility where it's being stored, this is the cargo.

0:34:24.600 --> 0:34:26.800
<v Speaker 4>I want a spot check. Tell me on your report

0:34:26.840 --> 0:34:28.840
<v Speaker 4>where it is, and now let's go find it.

0:34:29.520 --> 0:34:31.640
<v Speaker 5>And that's what you know. That's a bit of the

0:34:31.680 --> 0:34:33.480
<v Speaker 5>corrective action for the checks and balances.

0:34:33.520 --> 0:34:35.680
<v Speaker 4>Let's make sure there it's where they say it is

0:34:35.719 --> 0:34:36.880
<v Speaker 4>and it truly exists.

0:34:37.400 --> 0:34:39.880
<v Speaker 3>After Margo, it definitely think it might have been the

0:34:40.000 --> 0:34:42.600
<v Speaker 3>second time that it happened, because it wasn't just once

0:34:43.280 --> 0:34:46.480
<v Speaker 3>the larger, larger bank. First time I ever heard the

0:34:46.560 --> 0:34:50.480
<v Speaker 3>phrase the d risking team got involved and they withdrew

0:34:50.640 --> 0:34:51.800
<v Speaker 3>themselves de risking.

0:34:51.920 --> 0:34:53.080
<v Speaker 1>That's when you know you're in trouble.

0:34:54.360 --> 0:34:57.759
<v Speaker 3>Yeah, exactly thought the same thing like Margot, so that

0:34:57.880 --> 0:34:59.840
<v Speaker 3>the de risking team is extracted.

0:35:00.000 --> 0:35:02.359
<v Speaker 1>I imagining like a swat team that just like comes

0:35:02.560 --> 0:35:05.000
<v Speaker 1>through the It's definitely it's a military action, right, and

0:35:05.640 --> 0:35:06.719
<v Speaker 1>it never ends well for you.

0:35:07.280 --> 0:35:09.800
<v Speaker 3>But yeah, they that bank wound down their involvement in

0:35:09.920 --> 0:35:13.000
<v Speaker 3>that trade after Margo's discovery, which was the right thing

0:35:13.040 --> 0:35:15.160
<v Speaker 3>to do. Is just getting sloppy, Uh, you know at

0:35:15.200 --> 0:35:15.560
<v Speaker 3>that point.

0:35:15.680 --> 0:35:19.440
<v Speaker 2>So can you talk a little bit about liquids? I mean,

0:35:19.560 --> 0:35:22.200
<v Speaker 2>just even I started talking about the salad oil scandal,

0:35:22.600 --> 0:35:25.719
<v Speaker 2>did anything change fundamentally after that in terms of how

0:35:25.920 --> 0:35:28.839
<v Speaker 2>inspections are done? Because that was pretty clever. The oil

0:35:28.880 --> 0:35:31.640
<v Speaker 2>floats to the top water underneath. But like, did anything

0:35:31.760 --> 0:35:35.759
<v Speaker 2>fundamentally change? And our liquids still tricky to verify in

0:35:35.840 --> 0:35:36.400
<v Speaker 2>some cases.

0:35:36.800 --> 0:35:40.520
<v Speaker 3>M liquids are not an area that were involved, Yeah,

0:35:40.840 --> 0:35:42.560
<v Speaker 3>were involved in so take it. Take it with a

0:35:42.600 --> 0:35:45.000
<v Speaker 3>grain of salt, right in this case, or a dash

0:35:45.080 --> 0:35:49.960
<v Speaker 3>of olive oil. But yeah, liquid sampling and so forth

0:35:50.040 --> 0:35:52.640
<v Speaker 3>something that we Margo and I were both ship's officers,

0:35:52.719 --> 0:35:56.240
<v Speaker 3>merchant marine officers, so we uh had our time learning

0:35:56.320 --> 0:35:59.120
<v Speaker 3>in school about taking samples in a tanker. Yeah, and

0:35:59.320 --> 0:36:03.560
<v Speaker 3>uh and so worth with so forth. But I don't

0:36:03.600 --> 0:36:07.160
<v Speaker 3>think that there's anything It's still the same basic principles

0:36:07.200 --> 0:36:11.320
<v Speaker 3>of representative samples, not just not just going to the

0:36:11.400 --> 0:36:14.640
<v Speaker 3>top layer, right, but doing a thorough inspection and having

0:36:15.840 --> 0:36:20.240
<v Speaker 3>and also vetting of the facility that's storing it, ensuring

0:36:20.320 --> 0:36:24.320
<v Speaker 3>that the facility is vetted, vetted properly, and that the

0:36:24.400 --> 0:36:29.000
<v Speaker 3>ownership and the management and the procedures are tight and intact,

0:36:29.520 --> 0:36:33.840
<v Speaker 3>and the counter party counterparty risk. But the sampling physical

0:36:33.920 --> 0:36:36.759
<v Speaker 3>sampling of when it comes to liquid commodities, I think

0:36:36.880 --> 0:36:41.399
<v Speaker 3>is something that hasn't changed in the past few thousand years,

0:36:41.440 --> 0:36:43.359
<v Speaker 3>and it's just a matter of how thorough it's done

0:36:43.360 --> 0:36:44.480
<v Speaker 3>and if it's done in the right way.

0:36:45.040 --> 0:36:48.000
<v Speaker 1>So speaking of change, I mean we started this conversation

0:36:48.239 --> 0:36:52.920
<v Speaker 1>talking about that Mesopotamian tablet and the complaint about copper quality.

0:36:53.480 --> 0:36:58.520
<v Speaker 1>It does seem like a lot of this hasn't technologically advanced.

0:36:58.640 --> 0:37:01.359
<v Speaker 1>But talk to us about what is happening on that front.

0:37:01.400 --> 0:37:05.640
<v Speaker 1>Because you mentioned drones surveying coal, I imagine ancient Mesopotamia

0:37:05.719 --> 0:37:08.560
<v Speaker 1>did not have the benefit of drones. I'm certain there

0:37:08.640 --> 0:37:12.160
<v Speaker 1>happened dozens if not hundreds of people on LinkedIn pitching

0:37:12.280 --> 0:37:16.360
<v Speaker 1>blockchain for siles. That must be a thing. But what

0:37:16.600 --> 0:37:19.120
<v Speaker 1>kind of advancements are people talking about?

0:37:19.440 --> 0:37:22.120
<v Speaker 3>As you said, right, certainly the drone. Ability to use

0:37:22.200 --> 0:37:28.400
<v Speaker 3>drones to measure physical dry bulk stockpiles is an advancement.

0:37:28.480 --> 0:37:31.080
<v Speaker 3>It gives a far more accurate picture of what's what's

0:37:31.120 --> 0:37:36.640
<v Speaker 3>there versus a versus an eyeballing an estimation, right, which

0:37:36.680 --> 0:37:40.319
<v Speaker 3>would be another form of doing that or verifying very

0:37:40.400 --> 0:37:43.520
<v Speaker 3>complicated verifying of the weight of everything that's gone into

0:37:43.600 --> 0:37:47.920
<v Speaker 3>that stockpile, but that can change any day. Was materials withdrawn?

0:37:48.440 --> 0:37:53.560
<v Speaker 3>The blockchain UH, and electronic bills of lading right, and

0:37:53.880 --> 0:37:58.279
<v Speaker 3>so forth, it all helps, but still it goes back

0:37:58.360 --> 0:38:02.840
<v Speaker 3>to traffic goura right. All of the paperwork was perfect.

0:38:03.200 --> 0:38:06.480
<v Speaker 3>So the block paperwork, whether it flew h whether it

0:38:06.760 --> 0:38:10.440
<v Speaker 3>moved via blockchain or went via via FedEx, it was

0:38:10.480 --> 0:38:13.520
<v Speaker 3>still perfect. The metal was it right, So blockchain is

0:38:13.560 --> 0:38:16.880
<v Speaker 3>not going to prevent that. It might catch some other problems.

0:38:16.960 --> 0:38:20.440
<v Speaker 2>But garbage and garbage out right, like exactly, you can just.

0:38:20.520 --> 0:38:23.200
<v Speaker 1>Track it better. You can track.

0:38:24.880 --> 0:38:25.360
<v Speaker 3>What about?

0:38:25.560 --> 0:38:29.000
<v Speaker 1>What about even more basic solutions? And I'm sure there's

0:38:29.000 --> 0:38:31.440
<v Speaker 1>a really obvious and simple reason why you couldn't do this,

0:38:31.640 --> 0:38:34.320
<v Speaker 1>But for instance, the nickel in the bags, could you

0:38:34.560 --> 0:38:37.080
<v Speaker 1>like put it in plastic bags or glass jars so

0:38:37.160 --> 0:38:37.920
<v Speaker 1>you could see.

0:38:37.760 --> 0:38:40.480
<v Speaker 3>It, Yeah, something more visible.

0:38:41.000 --> 0:38:44.960
<v Speaker 4>Well, I'm assuming the bags that are used are for longevity.

0:38:45.120 --> 0:38:45.719
<v Speaker 5>Oh, I see right.

0:38:45.960 --> 0:38:48.200
<v Speaker 4>Glass is going to add weight, harder to handle, so

0:38:48.440 --> 0:38:51.280
<v Speaker 4>that's not really too feasible. But different bags.

0:38:51.719 --> 0:38:52.120
<v Speaker 5>I don't know.

0:38:52.400 --> 0:38:55.279
<v Speaker 1>But what are the warehouses saying about this? Are are they,

0:38:55.440 --> 0:38:57.680
<v Speaker 1>you know, making noises about we're going to start doing

0:38:57.760 --> 0:39:01.640
<v Speaker 1>things maybe slightly differently in order to void all right?

0:39:01.840 --> 0:39:06.839
<v Speaker 4>I mean that's where is the liability and who's authenticating

0:39:06.960 --> 0:39:11.160
<v Speaker 4>what that material is? If the warehouseman is merely storing it,

0:39:12.040 --> 0:39:15.840
<v Speaker 4>they're saying their receipts will say said to contain. You know,

0:39:16.160 --> 0:39:19.960
<v Speaker 4>I'm declaring I'm annoyante, right, I'm ware housing this as copper.

0:39:20.040 --> 0:39:23.600
<v Speaker 4>But I'm not a metallurgist. I've not been part of

0:39:23.760 --> 0:39:26.399
<v Speaker 4>the buy and sell on this. I'm merely the guy

0:39:26.400 --> 0:39:29.120
<v Speaker 4>who's building you put this in. So I'm just saying,

0:39:29.360 --> 0:39:32.920
<v Speaker 4>those twenty four stacks are there, and they are purported

0:39:33.000 --> 0:39:35.520
<v Speaker 4>to be this. Maybe we've weighed them and we can

0:39:35.560 --> 0:39:38.840
<v Speaker 4>authenticate the weight of the units, but I can't guarantee

0:39:38.920 --> 0:39:42.479
<v Speaker 4>that it's copper or at a different level, you're saying

0:39:42.560 --> 0:39:45.239
<v Speaker 4>it's you know, a certain quality and it's truly a

0:39:45.280 --> 0:39:50.080
<v Speaker 4>different quality. I certainly can't authenticate that, but there are

0:39:51.120 --> 0:39:53.880
<v Speaker 4>you know, you can certainly hire people to come in

0:39:54.040 --> 0:39:56.680
<v Speaker 4>and do whatever is the right level of scrutiny for

0:39:56.880 --> 0:40:01.279
<v Speaker 4>the commodity. Obviously, all commodities have different different approaches on

0:40:01.360 --> 0:40:04.560
<v Speaker 4>that liquid versus cards versus soft commodities and so forth,

0:40:05.120 --> 0:40:07.400
<v Speaker 4>and the warehouse can play a role in that for

0:40:07.480 --> 0:40:11.160
<v Speaker 4>a hired service, for whatever reliability they're willing to take on.

0:40:11.560 --> 0:40:13.920
<v Speaker 2>Yeah, I was gonna say because you mentioned that earlier,

0:40:14.040 --> 0:40:18.120
<v Speaker 2>So on some level, I imagine there are some commodities

0:40:18.160 --> 0:40:20.920
<v Speaker 2>in which there's not much fraud, probably because it's just

0:40:21.120 --> 0:40:23.400
<v Speaker 2>cheap and bulky and there's not much I don't know,

0:40:23.520 --> 0:40:26.000
<v Speaker 2>there's probably not much point in putting something fake for

0:40:26.120 --> 0:40:29.520
<v Speaker 2>thos like soybeans or corn or something like that would

0:40:29.560 --> 0:40:31.720
<v Speaker 2>be my guest. But I guess for like the ones

0:40:31.760 --> 0:40:34.520
<v Speaker 2>where that are more susceptible to fraud, that take more

0:40:34.680 --> 0:40:37.520
<v Speaker 2>time for someone to go in and do representative samples,

0:40:37.560 --> 0:40:40.040
<v Speaker 2>et cetera. Is there a de facto like, you know,

0:40:40.440 --> 0:40:44.359
<v Speaker 2>higher risk premium that traders in these markets pay. They're

0:40:44.440 --> 0:40:46.839
<v Speaker 2>paying for the warehouse at the time. The warehouse has

0:40:46.960 --> 0:40:50.080
<v Speaker 2>this and you as a participant on one side of

0:40:50.200 --> 0:40:53.680
<v Speaker 2>the trade rents time, I guess for the from the

0:40:53.719 --> 0:40:56.879
<v Speaker 2>warehouse for that inspection. Is that basically how it works,

0:40:56.920 --> 0:40:59.320
<v Speaker 2>and so like to transact into some of these commodities,

0:40:59.560 --> 0:41:01.880
<v Speaker 2>whether it's like a nickel that for reasons because of

0:41:01.880 --> 0:41:04.719
<v Speaker 2>the bags or whatever, they're valuable and not visible, like

0:41:04.800 --> 0:41:07.279
<v Speaker 2>you ultimately like have to pay more to transact in

0:41:07.360 --> 0:41:07.960
<v Speaker 2>these commodities.

0:41:08.160 --> 0:41:11.239
<v Speaker 3>Certainly you know from an insurance standpoint where you're getting

0:41:11.239 --> 0:41:14.480
<v Speaker 3>an all risk cargo insurance which is typical policy when

0:41:14.520 --> 0:41:18.759
<v Speaker 3>you're moving and storing goods and commodities like this, that

0:41:19.040 --> 0:41:21.800
<v Speaker 3>the insurance premiums are going to be significantly higher for

0:41:22.760 --> 0:41:28.000
<v Speaker 3>higher value goods. Goods like that. The facilities themselves will

0:41:28.080 --> 0:41:32.480
<v Speaker 3>often look at the warehousing companies facilities will often look

0:41:32.560 --> 0:41:36.680
<v Speaker 3>at at higher costs for storing higher value The risk

0:41:36.800 --> 0:41:40.320
<v Speaker 3>is higher, the incidents of theft or higher, you know

0:41:40.360 --> 0:41:42.759
<v Speaker 3>with those type of those type of commodities. So yes,

0:41:43.320 --> 0:41:46.560
<v Speaker 3>there's going to be more costs in dealing dealing with

0:41:47.239 --> 0:41:50.160
<v Speaker 3>you know, with that with higher value commodities for sure.

0:41:50.680 --> 0:41:52.400
<v Speaker 1>One thing I wanted to ask before I forget, is

0:41:52.440 --> 0:41:56.680
<v Speaker 1>there a commodity that is particularly well suited to fraud.

0:41:58.200 --> 0:41:59.760
<v Speaker 5>I think I think nickel apparently.

0:42:00.120 --> 0:42:03.800
<v Speaker 3>Yeah, copper also has been a big, big one, right, Yeah.

0:42:04.000 --> 0:42:08.640
<v Speaker 4>Something that's higher value. So that's what peaues interest because

0:42:09.200 --> 0:42:11.359
<v Speaker 4>it's a great thing to steal and resell. Copper can

0:42:11.400 --> 0:42:16.440
<v Speaker 4>go on the secondary market quite fast. Aluminum nobody steals aluminum.

0:42:16.600 --> 0:42:17.280
<v Speaker 5>Nobody cares.

0:42:17.480 --> 0:42:19.759
<v Speaker 4>It's not worth it's not worth enough, and it's really

0:42:19.800 --> 0:42:21.320
<v Speaker 4>big and heavy, so people don't move it.

0:42:21.640 --> 0:42:26.120
<v Speaker 2>Heavy, unwieldly, right, small and expensive is where you want

0:42:26.120 --> 0:42:26.640
<v Speaker 2>to exactly.

0:42:27.480 --> 0:42:31.800
<v Speaker 1>Gold bricks, they're a classic for a reason.

0:42:32.040 --> 0:42:32.959
<v Speaker 2>Okay, that makes sense.

0:42:33.560 --> 0:42:36.840
<v Speaker 1>So we would be remiss if we didn't also ask you,

0:42:36.960 --> 0:42:39.160
<v Speaker 1>while we have you here, what's going on with the

0:42:39.200 --> 0:42:42.000
<v Speaker 1>Mississippi River and the barges, because the last time we

0:42:42.080 --> 0:42:44.960
<v Speaker 1>spoke to you, I think it was back in August, yeah, September,

0:42:45.840 --> 0:42:48.239
<v Speaker 1>there was a drought. There wasn't enough water in the

0:42:48.360 --> 0:42:51.600
<v Speaker 1>river and so people were having difficulty getting the barges

0:42:51.600 --> 0:42:55.040
<v Speaker 1>where they needed to be. Now we've heard some stories

0:42:55.080 --> 0:42:57.640
<v Speaker 1>that there's too much water. What's going on that?

0:42:57.960 --> 0:43:00.080
<v Speaker 4>I think the last time we spoke, we were we

0:43:00.120 --> 0:43:01.719
<v Speaker 4>weren't even into the belly of the beast jet.

0:43:01.800 --> 0:43:04.480
<v Speaker 5>It got worse before it got better. It was pretty

0:43:04.520 --> 0:43:06.640
<v Speaker 5>epic last year what we saw.

0:43:06.560 --> 0:43:08.960
<v Speaker 4>And it was what most people haven't seen in a

0:43:09.040 --> 0:43:10.800
<v Speaker 4>lifetime of doing river business.

0:43:10.880 --> 0:43:12.480
<v Speaker 5>It's just been that long.

0:43:13.080 --> 0:43:18.200
<v Speaker 4>The river is always cyclical, and we do see drier periods,

0:43:18.600 --> 0:43:21.000
<v Speaker 4>and we do see periods where we get a lot

0:43:21.040 --> 0:43:22.279
<v Speaker 4>of the you know, this time of year, we get

0:43:22.320 --> 0:43:25.000
<v Speaker 4>a lot of runoff from the mountains from snow and

0:43:25.520 --> 0:43:27.839
<v Speaker 4>makes it way its way all the way down the Mississippi.

0:43:28.480 --> 0:43:31.840
<v Speaker 4>And so that is a classic feast or famine, and

0:43:31.960 --> 0:43:35.640
<v Speaker 4>both of them present similar challenges where we have to

0:43:35.840 --> 0:43:41.280
<v Speaker 4>reduce the toe size. Navigation is harder, and as an overall,

0:43:41.320 --> 0:43:43.799
<v Speaker 4>the river just slows down and trade slows down.

0:43:44.719 --> 0:43:46.719
<v Speaker 2>See can you walk through the mechanics of why does

0:43:46.800 --> 0:43:49.120
<v Speaker 2>too much water it reduced to size?

0:43:50.000 --> 0:43:52.640
<v Speaker 4>We end up with the water is moving too fast

0:43:53.000 --> 0:43:55.439
<v Speaker 4>and a lot of instances and they will take down

0:43:55.520 --> 0:43:58.640
<v Speaker 4>the toe sizes just to keep better controls. That's when

0:43:58.680 --> 0:44:03.160
<v Speaker 4>you start seeing toes break apart. Whereas in the fall

0:44:03.280 --> 0:44:05.480
<v Speaker 4>we were on smaller toe sizes because we had to

0:44:05.760 --> 0:44:09.000
<v Speaker 4>the towboats had to navigate little water in so many places.

0:44:09.520 --> 0:44:11.520
<v Speaker 5>They couldn't take the big toes, so.

0:44:12.080 --> 0:44:13.680
<v Speaker 2>They couldn't be filled up as much right, because they

0:44:13.680 --> 0:44:13.960
<v Speaker 2>were right.

0:44:14.440 --> 0:44:16.120
<v Speaker 5>Yeah, we had to have them really really light.

0:44:16.520 --> 0:44:20.279
<v Speaker 3>And a typical tow like on the mainline toe on

0:44:20.320 --> 0:44:24.000
<v Speaker 3>the river would be tugboat pushing spending as like thirty barges.

0:44:24.120 --> 0:44:27.399
<v Speaker 3>So give you a perspective, right, So reducing that from

0:44:27.440 --> 0:44:28.120
<v Speaker 3>a thirty barge.

0:44:28.400 --> 0:44:30.000
<v Speaker 2>Yeah, so we are.

0:44:30.800 --> 0:44:34.640
<v Speaker 4>We're over that hump. Now we're getting back into normal

0:44:34.719 --> 0:44:36.719
<v Speaker 4>flows and more normal water.

0:44:36.600 --> 0:44:38.000
<v Speaker 5>Size and water depths.

0:44:38.640 --> 0:44:41.080
<v Speaker 4>So that puts the river at a better speed and

0:44:41.120 --> 0:44:43.200
<v Speaker 4>we get back to some normal traffic for a bit.

0:44:44.360 --> 0:44:47.000
<v Speaker 3>You mentioned, Tracy, but the high water situation was in

0:44:47.000 --> 0:44:50.000
<v Speaker 3>the upper Misissippi rivers in the north of Saint Louis,

0:44:50.080 --> 0:44:54.160
<v Speaker 3>like up toward through up to Minneapolis. So you know

0:44:54.200 --> 0:44:57.080
<v Speaker 3>that'll get back to normal. But yeahs it's low water.

0:44:59.280 --> 0:45:02.000
<v Speaker 1>Is it ever the what's the perfect level of water

0:45:02.080 --> 0:45:03.680
<v Speaker 1>in the Mississippi for the barge business?

0:45:04.239 --> 0:45:04.359
<v Speaker 3>Oh?

0:45:04.719 --> 0:45:07.080
<v Speaker 5>Yes, I don't know what happens like twice a year.

0:45:07.239 --> 0:45:07.560
<v Speaker 3>I don't know.

0:45:07.920 --> 0:45:09.879
<v Speaker 4>I don't know where a moment that's gonna happen this year?

0:45:10.239 --> 0:45:10.759
<v Speaker 2>Fair enough?

0:45:11.200 --> 0:45:14.120
<v Speaker 1>All right, Well, Anton and Margo, we really appreciate you

0:45:14.280 --> 0:45:17.160
<v Speaker 1>coming back on odlots. Thank you so much. We appreciate

0:45:17.200 --> 0:45:17.920
<v Speaker 1>your thoughts too.

0:45:18.239 --> 0:45:18.839
<v Speaker 3>Always fun.

0:45:19.040 --> 0:45:35.319
<v Speaker 1>Yeah, thanks so much, Thank you so much, guys. So Joe,

0:45:35.400 --> 0:45:37.879
<v Speaker 1>I really enjoyed that conversation. I gotta say, I feel

0:45:37.920 --> 0:45:40.280
<v Speaker 1>like we need to do an odd lots on location

0:45:40.480 --> 0:45:42.960
<v Speaker 1>where we follow the guy flying down to the Cayman

0:45:43.040 --> 0:45:44.160
<v Speaker 1>Islands to check on the gold.

0:45:44.400 --> 0:45:47.120
<v Speaker 2>I love that idea. Yeah, actually do an inspection, you

0:45:47.200 --> 0:45:49.080
<v Speaker 2>know what I was thinking about. And I guess it's

0:45:49.239 --> 0:45:51.719
<v Speaker 2>even goes back to some of our conversations that we

0:45:51.760 --> 0:45:54.480
<v Speaker 2>had with Javier Bloss last year, Like it's sort of

0:45:54.560 --> 0:45:59.120
<v Speaker 2>like commodities seems very unincorporate, yeah, compared to the rest

0:45:59.239 --> 0:46:02.640
<v Speaker 2>of the finance industry, and this is like another reminder of.

0:46:02.680 --> 0:46:03.240
<v Speaker 5>It, totally.

0:46:03.320 --> 0:46:04.879
<v Speaker 1>And it's kind of weird when you think that it's

0:46:05.080 --> 0:46:08.320
<v Speaker 1>the basic building, yes, for so much of our world,

0:46:08.440 --> 0:46:10.279
<v Speaker 1>and yet it still seems to be the sort of

0:46:10.440 --> 0:46:14.120
<v Speaker 1>like I'm going to mix my metaphors here, but swashbuckling, wild.

0:46:13.960 --> 0:46:18.160
<v Speaker 2>West, Yes, piracy, gray areas, all of these things in

0:46:18.280 --> 0:46:20.359
<v Speaker 2>which like you just sort of assumed that like large

0:46:20.400 --> 0:46:23.359
<v Speaker 2>corporations would have like squeezed all that out. Yeah, crime

0:46:23.440 --> 0:46:25.919
<v Speaker 2>is kind of hard in many digital realms at this point,

0:46:25.960 --> 0:46:29.359
<v Speaker 2>but it feels like when there's physical stuff like crime

0:46:29.440 --> 0:46:30.000
<v Speaker 2>finds a way.

0:46:30.320 --> 0:46:32.200
<v Speaker 1>But the other thing I was thinking is it does

0:46:32.400 --> 0:46:35.359
<v Speaker 1>feel like there's a sort of clash of incentives here

0:46:35.480 --> 0:46:38.239
<v Speaker 1>where you want to encourage people to use the best

0:46:38.320 --> 0:46:42.200
<v Speaker 1>counter parties, use warehouses with very stringent risk control measures,

0:46:42.880 --> 0:46:47.160
<v Speaker 1>and yet that also seems extremely time consuming and expensive

0:46:47.320 --> 0:46:49.920
<v Speaker 1>and bureaucratics. You could see why people might want to

0:46:50.440 --> 0:46:51.560
<v Speaker 1>switch to others.

0:46:51.880 --> 0:46:55.280
<v Speaker 2>And I guess that also, like to the original point,

0:46:55.400 --> 0:46:58.720
<v Speaker 2>like a warehouse, like the element, you just don't expect

0:46:58.760 --> 0:47:02.160
<v Speaker 2>it to have any issue, and then that is ultimately

0:47:02.360 --> 0:47:05.560
<v Speaker 2>the mental bias. I suppose that the fraudsters take advantage

0:47:05.600 --> 0:47:07.879
<v Speaker 2>of if you can get in somehow into the most

0:47:07.960 --> 0:47:11.160
<v Speaker 2>reputable entities where people feel like nothing bad is going

0:47:11.239 --> 0:47:13.120
<v Speaker 2>to happen here. So you could see how it's sort

0:47:13.120 --> 0:47:15.640
<v Speaker 2>of like this, like I don't know, cat and mouse game.

0:47:15.880 --> 0:47:18.919
<v Speaker 1>Speaking of mental bias, you need to shift your take

0:47:19.160 --> 0:47:22.800
<v Speaker 1>on the golden Fort Knox and you scratching it and

0:47:22.920 --> 0:47:26.040
<v Speaker 1>say you were you didn't accidentally touch it. You were checking,

0:47:26.239 --> 0:47:29.919
<v Speaker 1>I was checking, checking, check, and we did everyone.

0:47:32.239 --> 0:47:35.040
<v Speaker 2>For everyone that at least one gold bar that was

0:47:35.080 --> 0:47:37.040
<v Speaker 2>in the basement of the New York Fed in nineteen

0:47:37.120 --> 0:47:39.200
<v Speaker 2>ninety eight when I took a field trip, there was

0:47:39.280 --> 0:47:40.600
<v Speaker 2>real gold service.

0:47:40.680 --> 0:47:41.640
<v Speaker 3>I have done my part.

0:47:41.719 --> 0:47:42.920
<v Speaker 2>I have done my parts.

0:47:43.160 --> 0:47:44.080
<v Speaker 3>Thank you for the reframe.

0:47:44.200 --> 0:47:45.960
<v Speaker 1>All right? On that note, shall we leave it there?

0:47:46.080 --> 0:47:46.719
<v Speaker 2>Let's leave it there?

0:47:46.760 --> 0:47:47.080
<v Speaker 5>All right?

0:47:47.239 --> 0:47:49.960
<v Speaker 1>This has been another episode of the All Thoughts podcast.

0:47:50.080 --> 0:47:52.560
<v Speaker 1>I'm Tracy Alloway. You can follow me on Twitter at

0:47:52.600 --> 0:47:53.360
<v Speaker 1>Tracy Alloway.

0:47:53.440 --> 0:47:56.080
<v Speaker 2>And I'm Joe Wisenthal. You can follow me on Twitter

0:47:56.239 --> 0:47:59.719
<v Speaker 2>at the Stalwart. Follow our producers on Twitter Carmen rod

0:47:59.800 --> 0:48:03.279
<v Speaker 2>ree Is at Carmen Arman and dash Ol Bennett at Dashbot.

0:48:03.520 --> 0:48:05.880
<v Speaker 2>And check out all of the Bloomberg podcasts under the

0:48:05.960 --> 0:48:07.200
<v Speaker 2>handle at podcasts.

0:48:07.560 --> 0:48:11.280
<v Speaker 1>And you can stream Bloomberg originals on Apple TV, Roku,

0:48:11.680 --> 0:48:15.520
<v Speaker 1>Samsung TV, and more, and tune in on Bloomberg TV

0:48:15.680 --> 0:48:16.960
<v Speaker 1>at ten pm Eastern.

0:48:17.200 --> 0:48:19.680
<v Speaker 2>And for more odd Lots content, go to Bloomberg dot

0:48:19.760 --> 0:48:22.239
<v Speaker 2>com slash odd Lots, where we have a blog, we

0:48:22.360 --> 0:48:25.440
<v Speaker 2>post our transcripts, we have a weekly newsletter, and we

0:48:25.520 --> 0:48:27.560
<v Speaker 2>have a discord where you can go chat twenty four

0:48:27.600 --> 0:48:30.120
<v Speaker 2>to seven with other odd Lots listeners. It's really fun.

0:48:30.360 --> 0:48:33.759
<v Speaker 2>Discord dot gg slash odd lots. Go check it out.

0:48:34.440 --> 0:48:37.040
<v Speaker 2>Thanks for joining, Thanks for watching, Thanks for listening.

0:49:00.920 --> 0:49:02.960
<v Speaker 3>Now stood in a