WEBVTT - November Jobs Day And Infrastructure 0:00:00.800 --> 0:00:04.040 Welcome to the Bloomberg Markets Podcast. I'm Paul Sweeney alongside 0:00:04.040 --> 0:00:06.920 my co host Matt Miller. Every business day we bring 0:00:06.960 --> 0:00:11.520 you interviews from CEOs, market pros, and Bloomberg experts, along 0:00:11.560 --> 0:00:15.600 with essential market moving news. Find the Bloomberg Markets podcast 0:00:15.600 --> 0:00:18.479 called Apple Podcasts or wherever you listen to podcasts, and 0:00:18.480 --> 0:00:22.640 at Bloomberg dot com slash podcast. I want to get 0:00:22.680 --> 0:00:27.280 over right now to Dana Peterson UM to help us 0:00:27.600 --> 0:00:32.400 assess what's going on here in uh in the economy. 0:00:32.720 --> 0:00:37.040 Dana is Chief Economists and Center Leader of the Economy 0:00:37.400 --> 0:00:40.839 at the Conference Board, and Um, you know, it's the 0:00:40.880 --> 0:00:44.800 consumer that makes not just a huge difference in terms 0:00:44.840 --> 0:00:47.200 of spending right now, but in terms of so many 0:00:48.159 --> 0:00:51.760 other things, including returning to the workforce as as we 0:00:52.280 --> 0:00:56.960 have seen highlighted by today's jobs report. Dana, what's the 0:00:57.000 --> 0:01:01.040 state of the consumer's health and not just you know, financially, 0:01:01.200 --> 0:01:04.000 but in terms of getting back out there looked like 0:01:04.080 --> 0:01:08.640 to you yes, I mean, our last survey of consumer 0:01:08.680 --> 0:01:11.240 confidence for November showed that there was a dip in 0:01:11.319 --> 0:01:15.119 confidence overall. And when we ask consumers you know, what's 0:01:15.120 --> 0:01:19.039 the problem, they cited two things. First, inflation, and the 0:01:19.120 --> 0:01:21.640 second was COVID, And certainly when we look at the 0:01:21.760 --> 0:01:26.040 number of delta variant and COVID cases overall in November, 0:01:26.080 --> 0:01:28.520 they were still pretty elevated, even though they were not 0:01:28.600 --> 0:01:31.679 as bad as say late August early September UM and 0:01:31.680 --> 0:01:34.680 I think we saw that in today's report, where we 0:01:34.760 --> 0:01:39.360 saw just two tens UH in terms of total payroll 0:01:39.440 --> 0:01:43.680 gains and very little gains in terms of leisure and hospitality, 0:01:43.720 --> 0:01:47.800 and even some other UH sectors UM in services had 0:01:47.840 --> 0:01:52.200 negative readings. So if consumers are still not feeling safe 0:01:52.320 --> 0:01:54.880 and want to get out there and engage in these 0:01:54.880 --> 0:01:58.200 services that you have to enjoy outside of the home, 0:01:58.560 --> 0:02:01.240 and that's certainly going to in fact effect how many 0:02:01.400 --> 0:02:05.880 people UH employers are going to hire. It's been interesting 0:02:05.920 --> 0:02:09.080 to watch wage growth, but then an uptick in inflation 0:02:09.160 --> 0:02:12.040 as well the last print, and inflation was about six percent. 0:02:12.440 --> 0:02:15.519 And I'm curious how you're thinking about the relatively strong 0:02:16.000 --> 0:02:19.720 wage growth that we got in this report though if 0:02:19.720 --> 0:02:22.680 it's not keeping up with a six percent inflation rate, 0:02:23.040 --> 0:02:26.679 real wages are still negative. How do you view these 0:02:26.720 --> 0:02:31.560 wage numbers? Sure, I think the wage numbers increasing, you know, 0:02:31.600 --> 0:02:35.280 four percent year on year UM is really telling of 0:02:35.360 --> 0:02:38.920 the continued labor shortages that we're seeing. And certainly some 0:02:39.160 --> 0:02:41.359 industries are worse than others. So if you look at 0:02:41.360 --> 0:02:44.639 the retail I'm sorry, If you look at Lesion, hospitality 0:02:45.040 --> 0:02:48.120 wages were up almost thirteen percent year on year UM. 0:02:48.160 --> 0:02:54.320 And also transportation, I'm sorry, yeah, it's transportation and also warehousing. Uh, 0:02:54.320 --> 0:02:57.160 those prices were up more than six percent year on year. 0:02:57.200 --> 0:03:00.240 So certain areas, certainly those areas that are seen need 0:03:00.440 --> 0:03:04.680 most acute labor shortages. Again, those sectors that need people 0:03:04.720 --> 0:03:07.919 to physically be at work, we're seeing much higher wage 0:03:07.960 --> 0:03:13.240 increases relative to overall in terms of the participation rate. 0:03:13.320 --> 0:03:15.800 Janet Yellen a couple of days ago and her testimony 0:03:15.840 --> 0:03:19.320 said she thinks it's all about COVID that people are 0:03:19.320 --> 0:03:21.600 afraid to come back in Goldman Sachs, I think put 0:03:21.600 --> 0:03:24.280 out a report, uh, a couple of weeks ago, though, 0:03:24.320 --> 0:03:29.000 saying it's really about um returns because people have made 0:03:29.040 --> 0:03:31.760 so much money in the markets that those closed to 0:03:31.840 --> 0:03:34.000 retirement have decided they could go ahead and do it. 0:03:34.400 --> 0:03:37.120 How do you see it, Well, I think it's a 0:03:37.160 --> 0:03:41.200 combination of both plus other things. So certainly many people 0:03:41.240 --> 0:03:44.120 have retired early, either because they were afraid of getting 0:03:44.160 --> 0:03:47.240 sick or because their forewing k plans really exploded and 0:03:47.280 --> 0:03:50.000 they said, look, we feel financially safe, we can go 0:03:50.040 --> 0:03:52.560 ahead and retire. And many of those people are probably 0:03:52.600 --> 0:03:55.560 not going to return to the labor markets. Certainly, many 0:03:55.600 --> 0:03:59.240 people are still afraid of getting sick. Um. Certainly, again 0:03:59.280 --> 0:04:03.600 looking at the more confidence data, uh far, the virus 0:04:03.680 --> 0:04:06.280 is still very real. But you also have other factors. 0:04:06.280 --> 0:04:08.800 So for example, travel bands are still in play, so 0:04:08.880 --> 0:04:11.880 that means that labor from abroad really isn't able to 0:04:11.920 --> 0:04:14.160 come in. And still in some of those spots you 0:04:14.200 --> 0:04:17.839 still have lingering childcare issues, which are especially acute for 0:04:18.800 --> 0:04:23.800 women with working women with children. And so potentially the 0:04:23.839 --> 0:04:27.440 participation rate may not return to the level that we 0:04:27.520 --> 0:04:31.200 saw before the pandemic. So that suggests that maybe we're 0:04:31.240 --> 0:04:36.160 closer to full employment than the participation rate is signaling. 0:04:37.120 --> 0:04:41.400 How does this Federal Reserve respond? I would argue that 0:04:41.440 --> 0:04:43.760 maybe we heard sort of a different tone out of J. 0:04:43.920 --> 0:04:47.640 Powell this week. What does this mean for a FED meeting? 0:04:47.760 --> 0:04:52.560 And on December? Well, I I think you know, when 0:04:52.640 --> 0:04:55.120 looking at this employment report, it was mixed. On the 0:04:55.160 --> 0:04:58.760 one hand, payrolls were pretty pathetic, but UM on the 0:04:58.800 --> 0:05:02.360 household survey, we saw some good numbers there. Unemployment rate 0:05:03.080 --> 0:05:05.640 continue to fall, and certainly when you look at unemployment 0:05:05.720 --> 0:05:09.200 rates for different demographic groups, they're not as bad as 0:05:09.240 --> 0:05:13.359 they used to be. UM. Also, if you again getting 0:05:13.400 --> 0:05:16.599 back to the participation rate and reason for why you're 0:05:16.600 --> 0:05:19.719 not going to see some people come back, then you 0:05:19.760 --> 0:05:21.920 can say that, look, we're getting close to the full 0:05:21.920 --> 0:05:24.800 employment maybe in some areas we've actually reached it. But 0:05:24.880 --> 0:05:27.240 we also have to be very concerned about inflation. Look 0:05:27.279 --> 0:05:30.400 at wages rising as acutely as they are, businesses are 0:05:30.560 --> 0:05:33.800 most likely passing some of those wage costs and other 0:05:33.880 --> 0:05:37.719 input costs down to consumers. That's showing up in consumer inflation. 0:05:38.200 --> 0:05:40.400 And if you're the FED, you have to also be 0:05:40.480 --> 0:05:43.360 concerned not just about how many people are working, but 0:05:43.400 --> 0:05:46.479 they're they're buying power, and certainly they're buying power is 0:05:46.480 --> 0:05:52.279 eroded if prices are rising, especially forces necessities like food, UM, 0:05:52.400 --> 0:05:56.040 energy and shelter. Danny, you think do you think that 0:05:56.080 --> 0:05:58.040 the FED is going to be able to was rate, 0:05:58.440 --> 0:06:03.560 raise wages? Sorry, what am I talking about? Raise rates? 0:06:04.279 --> 0:06:08.080 UM without hurting economic growth? I mean we're only at 0:06:08.240 --> 0:06:13.760 you know, if they raise twice seventy five basis points, absolutely, 0:06:13.800 --> 0:06:16.440 I think that they can raise. As you said, if 0:06:16.480 --> 0:06:19.160 they raise interest rates two or three times, you still 0:06:19.440 --> 0:06:22.840 very low interest rates, still very accommodative. And let's let's 0:06:22.839 --> 0:06:25.159 think about what growth may look like next year, anywhere 0:06:25.200 --> 0:06:28.599 from three to four percent, depending upon what you have 0:06:28.680 --> 0:06:32.119 in there in terms of additional fiscal stimulus and also 0:06:32.160 --> 0:06:36.000 effects from higher inflation. So three percent is still very strong, 0:06:36.160 --> 0:06:39.520 especially when a potential GDP is probably close to two percent. 0:06:40.000 --> 0:06:43.560 So you have that perfect backdrop for the said relatively 0:06:43.800 --> 0:06:46.600 strong growth meaning well above trend at least one one 0:06:46.640 --> 0:06:51.520 to two percentage points above trend um, elevated prices, rising 0:06:51.560 --> 0:06:58.840 inflation expectations, and also an employment back drop that's significantly 0:06:58.880 --> 0:07:00.800 better and deep. When you look at number of missing 0:07:00.839 --> 0:07:06.200 persons from payrolls, you're around three million compared to two 0:07:06.240 --> 0:07:09.280 million back in February March of last year. So we've 0:07:09.360 --> 0:07:13.520 come a long way. Is that what I mean? A 0:07:13.560 --> 0:07:15.760 flattening yield curve on the two s tends right now 0:07:15.800 --> 0:07:20.080 below eighty basis points, and you could argue maybe eighty 0:07:20.120 --> 0:07:22.960 basis points feels low. It's the flattest that we've had 0:07:23.120 --> 0:07:26.920 since pre pandemic. And it's also the rate of change 0:07:26.920 --> 0:07:29.400 at which we've gotten to eight basis points. What is 0:07:29.440 --> 0:07:32.400 that flattening of the old curve telling you about a 0:07:32.440 --> 0:07:37.120 pull forward of some of these rate hike expectations. Well, 0:07:37.160 --> 0:07:40.640 I think markets are are kind of confused a little bit. 0:07:41.320 --> 0:07:43.880 On the one hand, you do have the strongest signaling 0:07:43.960 --> 0:07:47.360 from the FED. Certainly during the testimony from the chair 0:07:48.440 --> 0:07:51.840 he said, let's get rid of that word transitory and 0:07:51.920 --> 0:07:54.960 think more about the fact that some of these inflations 0:07:55.680 --> 0:07:59.040 elements are potentially a little bit more persistent, given the 0:07:59.040 --> 0:08:01.160 fact of the pandemic is persisting, and there may be 0:08:01.280 --> 0:08:04.920 some other things that even after the pandemic may linger, 0:08:05.000 --> 0:08:09.440 such as I wages. And also, meanwhile, you have the 0:08:09.560 --> 0:08:12.440 armicron variant cropping up, and we know that the delta 0:08:12.560 --> 0:08:17.280 variant has and is continuing to affect economic activity. So 0:08:17.320 --> 0:08:20.000 I would imagine markets probably don't know which way to 0:08:20.080 --> 0:08:23.680 go on this. But again, looking ahead to next year, 0:08:24.360 --> 0:08:27.920 um in the springtime or mid year, the conditions are 0:08:27.960 --> 0:08:30.640 probably going to be ripe. Among the things that I've 0:08:30.640 --> 0:08:33.439 already mentioned for the FED to go ahead and start 0:08:34.200 --> 0:08:37.959 raising interest rates a little bit. I want to ask 0:08:38.000 --> 0:08:40.680 a question that I know you don't want to be political. 0:08:40.679 --> 0:08:43.000 No economists wants to be political, unless you're Paul Krugman 0:08:43.120 --> 0:08:47.400 or Brian Westbury, But build back better? Does that kind 0:08:47.440 --> 0:08:52.439 of spending add to inflation? Or um? Does it help 0:08:52.520 --> 0:08:56.160 us avoid inflation? Or is it a question of your 0:08:56.200 --> 0:09:00.120 time span? I think a lot of it to a 0:09:00.200 --> 0:09:02.520 combination of what's in the bill, which we we do 0:09:02.679 --> 0:09:06.600 know um and certainly it's already been scored by the CBO, 0:09:06.960 --> 0:09:12.160 and the timing of when the outlays happen, and certainly UM, 0:09:12.200 --> 0:09:15.559 I think the outlays are meant to be accelerated across 0:09:15.600 --> 0:09:18.120 the ten year period or however long the period is. 0:09:18.679 --> 0:09:21.960 And so that means that you have stronger growth potentially 0:09:22.000 --> 0:09:24.679 next year and and and also in the year after. 0:09:25.360 --> 0:09:27.959 And so that means that you also may have stronger 0:09:28.000 --> 0:09:32.720 demand UM, certainly from businesses that are uh, you know, 0:09:32.800 --> 0:09:37.240 certainly investing such that they can meet the demands of 0:09:38.240 --> 0:09:41.120 required by the bill UM. And so that means higher 0:09:41.160 --> 0:09:45.600 prices and certainly UM potentially higher prices for consumers as well. So, 0:09:45.760 --> 0:09:50.240 taking together stronger growth somewhat stronger inflation, and so again 0:09:50.280 --> 0:09:54.959 that provides additional space are a reason for the said 0:09:55.000 --> 0:09:58.440 to go ahead and begin raising interest rates from zero. 0:09:59.520 --> 0:10:02.040 It's int sting. I do wonder you know, what do 0:10:02.080 --> 0:10:05.320 you think about sort of this intersection of increase in 0:10:05.400 --> 0:10:10.079 fiscal and monetary stimulus. I think we knew post financial 0:10:10.120 --> 0:10:13.319 crisis there was a lot of pressure to do monetary 0:10:13.400 --> 0:10:17.480 stimulus because we didn't have the fiscal stimulus this time around. 0:10:17.520 --> 0:10:20.680 Actually could argue that the fiscal side has really been 0:10:21.160 --> 0:10:25.000 front and center along with monetary policy. Does that sort 0:10:25.040 --> 0:10:28.439 of also give the Fed officials room to pull back 0:10:28.800 --> 0:10:34.439 because as notwith saying this massive fiscal stimulus that is coming, well, 0:10:34.480 --> 0:10:39.120 I think, um, you're right. We had lots of fiscal 0:10:39.240 --> 0:10:43.760 copious amounts of fiscal and monetary policy stimulus amid the pandemic. 0:10:43.960 --> 0:10:47.560 And certainly when we look at the drivers of inflation, 0:10:48.040 --> 0:10:51.560 all that is not linked to the FEDS low interest 0:10:51.640 --> 0:10:53.440 rates or quantitae and vias, and some of it is 0:10:53.480 --> 0:10:57.360 linked to the very strong demand for good um and 0:10:57.400 --> 0:11:01.800 services you can consume at home from discill stimulus checks. 0:11:01.800 --> 0:11:04.160 But still them all of the said is looked to 0:11:04.760 --> 0:11:09.000 to manage the economy in the financial system and certainly 0:11:09.000 --> 0:11:14.120 the FED can help cool lost some of the the 0:11:14.240 --> 0:11:18.080 heat that we're seeing in the economy and certainly in 0:11:17.080 --> 0:11:22.400 an inflation by raising interest rates. So again, you know, 0:11:22.600 --> 0:11:26.439 we have two very powerful policy impulses, and certainly in 0:11:26.440 --> 0:11:30.359 the FED can pull back on its policy impulses consistent 0:11:30.400 --> 0:11:34.040 with its dual mandate. All right, Dana, thanks so much, 0:11:34.080 --> 0:11:37.800 great to get your insight today. It's been a truly 0:11:37.920 --> 0:11:40.840 fascinating I mean, the last couple of years have been 0:11:41.400 --> 0:11:44.320 clearly unprecedented, but we've had an amazing week as well 0:11:44.360 --> 0:11:48.040 in terms of trading. Dana Peterson, Chief Economist and Center 0:11:48.160 --> 0:11:53.600 Leader of Economy, UM Strategy and Finance at the conference board, 0:11:58.200 --> 0:12:01.880 let's get over right now and talk a more in 0:12:02.000 --> 0:12:06.160 depth way about the job's number right now. Jani Bailey 0:12:06.280 --> 0:12:11.199 joins US right now, chief workforce analysis at employee Bridge 0:12:11.480 --> 0:12:13.520 and Johnny, you know, the President is going to come 0:12:13.520 --> 0:12:17.760 out and say, yeah, I was a too. It was 0:12:17.800 --> 0:12:21.240 a two hundred and fifty thousand, two hundred sixty thousand miss. 0:12:21.280 --> 0:12:24.760 But um, the unemployment number has fallen to four point 0:12:24.800 --> 0:12:29.320 two percent. Even experts didn't anticipate that. Are we in 0:12:29.360 --> 0:12:33.960 a good place as far as unemployments? Concerned. Well, first 0:12:34.000 --> 0:12:35.840 of all, thanks for having me. UM, great to be 0:12:35.920 --> 0:12:38.320 with you this morning, and I can tell you this 0:12:38.600 --> 0:12:42.040 Job's report, UM, it does have a little bit of 0:12:42.040 --> 0:12:46.200 a mixed message because you're right, that headline number was 0:12:46.679 --> 0:12:49.800 not that strong. We were expecting a number of five 0:12:49.880 --> 0:12:53.760 hundred and fifty thousand jobs created and only saw two 0:12:53.840 --> 0:12:57.160 hundred and ten thousand jobs created for the month of November, 0:12:57.280 --> 0:13:01.440 so that was a disappointment. How Ever, there is a 0:13:01.440 --> 0:13:05.160 lot of good news in this report. When you look 0:13:05.280 --> 0:13:10.640 at the overall labor force. UM, we saw that almost 0:13:10.679 --> 0:13:15.320 six hundred thousand people entered back into the labor force, 0:13:15.840 --> 0:13:18.120 which was a really good sign. We have a hundred 0:13:18.120 --> 0:13:22.120 and sixty two million people that are participating in the 0:13:22.200 --> 0:13:25.240 labor force compared to November last year, it was a 0:13:25.320 --> 0:13:28.960 hundred and sixty million UM. And even better is that 0:13:29.000 --> 0:13:34.040 we're seeing the number of employed people expand as well. UM. 0:13:34.080 --> 0:13:37.640 That was over one point one million people added in 0:13:37.679 --> 0:13:40.480 the month of November, so we now have a hundred 0:13:40.559 --> 0:13:44.440 and fifty five million people working and that's what's really 0:13:44.520 --> 0:13:48.760 driving down that unemployment rate. So UM, there is a 0:13:48.840 --> 0:13:51.880 lot of good news in this report as well. Though, 0:13:52.520 --> 0:13:54.960 you know, I wouldn't be surprised. Maybe if next month 0:13:55.080 --> 0:13:57.520 maybe they revised the numbers and it's a little bit 0:13:57.559 --> 0:13:59.560 better and we see a little bit more job creation. 0:13:59.720 --> 0:14:03.920 But UM, I was surprised that the that the overall 0:14:04.000 --> 0:14:08.160 job creation number was only two UM and twenty one. 0:14:08.600 --> 0:14:10.480 And you bring up a good point. Talk to us 0:14:10.480 --> 0:14:13.320 about the revisions because we've seen a lot of those 0:14:13.920 --> 0:14:19.280 in the past reports. Is there something UM changing were 0:14:19.360 --> 0:14:23.560 different about the way the payrolls report is is calculated. 0:14:23.600 --> 0:14:26.560 I mean, I've heard a lot of people starting their 0:14:26.600 --> 0:14:30.920 own businesses and job formation and employ you know, new 0:14:31.240 --> 0:14:35.680 sort of employer creation, and it's sort of changing the 0:14:35.680 --> 0:14:41.160 way that we should be looking at a traditional payrolls report. Yeah, 0:14:41.240 --> 0:14:44.040 you know, it's very interesting because then you can also 0:14:44.320 --> 0:14:48.200 enter into the gig economy UM and and see, you know, 0:14:48.240 --> 0:14:51.280 how many people are participating in that and actually working 0:14:51.360 --> 0:14:55.520 and is that being calculated UM correctly. But I can 0:14:55.560 --> 0:14:59.760 tell you from a revision standpoint, you know, UM not 0:15:00.120 --> 0:15:03.400 has really changed in the way they're calculating it. We 0:15:03.400 --> 0:15:06.520 we see every month, UM, the first Friday of the month, 0:15:06.640 --> 0:15:10.200 when the Bureau of Labor Statistics puts out the report, 0:15:10.360 --> 0:15:15.280 they will also revise the last or the previous two months, 0:15:15.840 --> 0:15:19.040 and you know, the past few months we have seen 0:15:19.480 --> 0:15:24.600 upward revisions. UM. This month in November, they actually revised 0:15:25.040 --> 0:15:29.440 September and October ups and it was an additional eighty 0:15:29.560 --> 0:15:35.000 seven thousand jobs created in those months. So the reports 0:15:35.000 --> 0:15:38.320 were actually even better. And I wouldn't wouldn't be surprised 0:15:38.360 --> 0:15:40.760 if we see that, you know, next month when we 0:15:40.800 --> 0:15:44.440 look at the December jobs report, UM, maybe November will 0:15:44.440 --> 0:15:48.280 get revived upwoard and well we will see a stronger number. UM. 0:15:48.360 --> 0:15:51.640 But overall there you know, the sectors, if you really 0:15:51.680 --> 0:15:53.960 kind of break it down and look at where the 0:15:54.040 --> 0:15:58.000 jobs were created, UM, it was kind of interesting. We 0:15:58.080 --> 0:16:03.480 did not see uh strong job growth in leisure and hospitality. 0:16:03.800 --> 0:16:07.239 Only twenty three thousand jobs were created in that sector, 0:16:07.520 --> 0:16:11.360 and that was expected to perform much stronger since we've 0:16:11.400 --> 0:16:14.680 seen people start to travel again. UM. I don't know 0:16:14.720 --> 0:16:16.760 about all of you, but you know, just being an 0:16:16.800 --> 0:16:20.320 airport lately, the flights are packed, the airports are packed. 0:16:21.240 --> 0:16:27.320 Restaurants certainly are you know, um at full capacity. So, 0:16:27.920 --> 0:16:30.680 uh surprise, we didn't see a stronger number there. But 0:16:31.440 --> 0:16:36.240 there was good job growth in construction and manufacturing. Both 0:16:36.280 --> 0:16:41.040 sectors added thirty one thousand. We're also seeing trade and 0:16:41.160 --> 0:16:45.760 transportation UM at about fifty thousand. It was a little 0:16:45.800 --> 0:16:49.120 over forty nine tho jobs created in that sector. So 0:16:49.200 --> 0:16:52.920 I think it really speaks to our economy right now 0:16:52.960 --> 0:16:56.600 in the demand and supply chain, UM, there's a lot 0:16:56.680 --> 0:17:00.160 of jobs available and where we're adding people back back 0:17:00.160 --> 0:17:02.520 in those sectors. I mean there are a ton of 0:17:02.600 --> 0:17:04.639 job We we focus so much on the people that 0:17:04.680 --> 0:17:08.760 haven't come back into the labor force because the participation 0:17:08.840 --> 0:17:13.680 rate is has historically been so important. UM. But there 0:17:13.680 --> 0:17:17.959 are so many openings there. And your company, employee Bridge, 0:17:18.040 --> 0:17:22.760 is widely recognized as the biggest industrial staffing firm in America. 0:17:23.080 --> 0:17:26.720 Where where do you see the most need right now? 0:17:27.000 --> 0:17:31.720 And how difficult is it for you to fill those positions? Yes, 0:17:31.840 --> 0:17:36.200 So at employee Bridge, we have organized ourselves really by brands. 0:17:36.280 --> 0:17:40.560 So we have a division called pro Drivers and they 0:17:40.600 --> 0:17:46.040 place UM CDL drivers and also non CDL drivers. UM. 0:17:46.240 --> 0:17:51.719 There is demand just right now for for drivers. So 0:17:51.800 --> 0:17:55.240 that is an area UM that we're seeing pay rates 0:17:55.320 --> 0:18:00.119 significantly up there, up eight year over year, and we 0:18:00.160 --> 0:18:02.639 have tons of job openings. In fact, we could I 0:18:02.720 --> 0:18:05.080 was talking to the president of that division yesterday. He said, 0:18:05.080 --> 0:18:08.120 we could double inside if we could just find more people. Well, 0:18:08.240 --> 0:18:09.720 and by the way, I don't want to get too 0:18:09.760 --> 0:18:11.879 far off from this tangent because I've always wanted to 0:18:11.880 --> 0:18:15.720 be a truck driver, long haul truck driver. But well, 0:18:17.560 --> 0:18:20.639 I've looked, I've looked into it though I've I've been 0:18:20.880 --> 0:18:23.840 reading a lot more about it lately. And not only 0:18:24.200 --> 0:18:27.800 is it a incredibly difficult you know, just to do 0:18:27.920 --> 0:18:30.840 to operate these big rigs, um, and you want to 0:18:30.840 --> 0:18:34.160 operate them safely, so you need experience, but it's it's 0:18:34.200 --> 0:18:37.040 not easy to get licensed either. I mean, how how 0:18:37.040 --> 0:18:40.840 difficult is it for someone who who'se you know, biggest 0:18:40.840 --> 0:18:44.159 truck experience is like an F one fifty to be 0:18:44.240 --> 0:18:49.280 driving an eighteen wheeler across America. Well, there's you know, 0:18:49.520 --> 0:18:53.720 great training programs and schools to teach them. So if 0:18:53.800 --> 0:18:56.800 they're they have to be twenty one years old um 0:18:57.000 --> 0:19:02.639 and a clean, cleaned living record, um. But there's great 0:19:02.680 --> 0:19:05.960 opportunities and many companies are you know, offering to pay 0:19:06.000 --> 0:19:09.920 for the training to help them, you know, and get them, 0:19:09.960 --> 0:19:12.560 you know, put them to work. So lots of opportunities 0:19:12.560 --> 0:19:16.000 in that area. Interesting. Is it happening fast enough though? 0:19:16.040 --> 0:19:20.080 I mean overall too across sectors? Where where are all 0:19:20.160 --> 0:19:23.520 the workers? What is not in I mean there are 0:19:23.600 --> 0:19:26.960 the pay increases that we've seen, not enough to bring 0:19:27.000 --> 0:19:31.960 workers back. Well, that is such a great question, um, 0:19:32.119 --> 0:19:34.800 And I think everyone's kind of scratching their head. You know, 0:19:34.840 --> 0:19:40.200 it's it's probably a combination of things. Because certainly COVID 0:19:40.680 --> 0:19:45.760 um impacted many families. We saw, you know, women drop 0:19:45.760 --> 0:19:48.080 out of the workforce that how to stay home and 0:19:48.160 --> 0:19:52.119 maybe help their children with online schooling. Um. We've also 0:19:52.200 --> 0:19:55.560 seen that, you know, the impact of covid has maybe 0:19:55.600 --> 0:19:58.600 made people reevaluate, you know, are we going to have 0:19:58.720 --> 0:20:03.160 to you know, working you know, parents or maybe one 0:20:03.280 --> 0:20:05.960 going to stay home. People are reevaluating themselves, So that 0:20:06.720 --> 0:20:10.560 certainly has been an impact. Safety health and safety is 0:20:10.640 --> 0:20:15.240 still a factor. UM. But you know, when I look 0:20:15.280 --> 0:20:19.120 at labor participation and you break it down, I'm I'm 0:20:19.119 --> 0:20:23.200 more concerned that we don't see enough women actually participating 0:20:23.240 --> 0:20:25.600 in the workforce. So I think employers are going to 0:20:25.680 --> 0:20:28.919 have to think differently about how they and you know, 0:20:29.000 --> 0:20:33.080 attract women to the workforce, whether it's more flexibility, more 0:20:33.200 --> 0:20:38.760 work from home opportunities. Um, there's an opportunity to increase 0:20:38.840 --> 0:20:42.280 labor participation that someone could kind of crack the code 0:20:42.440 --> 0:20:44.560 on figuring out how to make it more attractive for 0:20:44.640 --> 0:20:46.879 women to come back. Well, I have a great idea. 0:20:47.160 --> 0:20:53.359 What if What if major employers also had daycare in preschool? Yeah, 0:20:53.400 --> 0:20:55.959 the major employers. I mean, it is something you know, 0:20:56.040 --> 0:20:58.359 to think about. For a while, I felt like we 0:20:58.359 --> 0:21:01.960 were headed down, you know track, And you really don't 0:21:02.000 --> 0:21:05.840 hear that as much today, partly because of COVID. You know, 0:21:06.040 --> 0:21:11.000 many UM employers have moved the professional jobs and said, 0:21:11.040 --> 0:21:16.040 you know, you can work remotely or have a hybrid schedule. Um. 0:21:16.119 --> 0:21:19.200 But that is something the major employers where they have all, 0:21:19.760 --> 0:21:23.560 you know, all of their employees at big locations. UM, 0:21:23.640 --> 0:21:27.080 that would be a great, great benefit to offer employees. 0:21:27.119 --> 0:21:28.560 So I don't want to get again. I don't want 0:21:28.560 --> 0:21:31.120 to get political. And I've been flamed lately for being 0:21:31.200 --> 0:21:35.480 a bleeding hero. Can you believe that on on social media? Um? 0:21:35.560 --> 0:21:38.320 Do you think build Back Better, if passed in its 0:21:38.359 --> 0:21:42.600 current state, would help to increase to get women back 0:21:42.680 --> 0:21:49.159 into the labor force. Oh gosh, that is a loaded question. Um. Okay, 0:21:49.160 --> 0:21:50.720 I didn't mean to I don't. I didn't mean for 0:21:50.720 --> 0:21:53.199 it to be that way. I really don't know. No, 0:21:53.520 --> 0:21:56.879 I think you know, I'm not I have to be honest, 0:21:56.880 --> 0:22:00.160 but I'm not sure that that is the ants, sir. 0:22:00.240 --> 0:22:05.240 I think we do need programs absolutely that support women, UM, 0:22:05.280 --> 0:22:11.199 that supports families, UM, and you know, offer training and 0:22:11.400 --> 0:22:15.800 opportunities to get people back to back to work. My 0:22:15.960 --> 0:22:21.440 concern would be too much social assistance is not going 0:22:21.520 --> 0:22:24.600 to help get people back to work. And there's got 0:22:24.600 --> 0:22:26.480 to be a balance. So that's why I say that's 0:22:26.480 --> 0:22:29.280 a loaded question. There needs to be a balance. We 0:22:29.440 --> 0:22:36.679 definitely you know, you can be an economist, well, I 0:22:36.720 --> 0:22:39.040 can't say it's I see it more so on the 0:22:39.040 --> 0:22:42.160 front lines with workers. When we were you know, when 0:22:42.200 --> 0:22:45.359 our country was offering all of the supplemental insurance for 0:22:45.400 --> 0:22:49.080 the unemployment benefits, you know, we had many people that 0:22:49.080 --> 0:22:50.560 we would call and so, we have a great job 0:22:50.600 --> 0:22:52.760 for you, and they would say, well, I'm actually making 0:22:52.800 --> 0:22:57.080 more money on unemployment right now, and so why would 0:22:57.160 --> 0:23:00.520 I risk going to work? And so that that's always 0:23:00.560 --> 0:23:03.680 a topic that's debated, but I could tell you firsthand 0:23:04.040 --> 0:23:06.359 this this was a real issue that we dealt with 0:23:06.440 --> 0:23:09.400 for a while and now that that's kind of run 0:23:09.400 --> 0:23:11.359 its course, and those benefits did go away in the 0:23:11.440 --> 0:23:14.920 beginning of September, but it took a while for us 0:23:14.960 --> 0:23:17.960 to kind of get back and get people participating in 0:23:17.960 --> 0:23:21.040 the workforce. UM. And I can tell you right now 0:23:21.359 --> 0:23:25.080 we're seeing more applications, so so to you know, to 0:23:25.119 --> 0:23:28.520 answer your your question, I think it's a balance. Let's 0:23:28.560 --> 0:23:32.480 be careful that we don't offer so much social assistance 0:23:32.520 --> 0:23:35.760 that people don't want to come back to work and 0:23:35.800 --> 0:23:38.000 don't want to participate. We can't make it too easy. 0:23:38.080 --> 0:23:41.080 You know, our country was built on strong you know, 0:23:41.240 --> 0:23:44.560 values and work ethic and we need people out there 0:23:44.560 --> 0:23:47.360 working in all sectors. We need them training, we need 0:23:47.400 --> 0:23:51.400 them learning, um, and we need them participating. I'm really 0:23:51.440 --> 0:23:55.200 passionate about labor participation. We need to get more people participating. 0:23:56.000 --> 0:23:59.520 Really appreciate your time. What a wide ranging interview. Johnny 0:23:59.560 --> 0:24:08.040 Biley of Horse Title here chief workforce analyst at Employee Bridge. 0:24:08.600 --> 0:24:10.240 Let's get over and out of Tom Giinville. As I said, 0:24:10.240 --> 0:24:15.040 he's going to join us from LaSalle Network, leading American 0:24:15.280 --> 0:24:19.360 staffing firm to talk about the job's number. We had 0:24:19.400 --> 0:24:24.560 a big miss, Uh, Tom and nonetheless unemployment came down 0:24:24.560 --> 0:24:28.760 to four point two with the participation rate rising. What's 0:24:28.760 --> 0:24:33.360 your take, did we have a big miss? I get 0:24:33.400 --> 0:24:36.720 it that economists want to look and predict the future 0:24:36.720 --> 0:24:38.760 of what everything is going to be. You know, we 0:24:38.800 --> 0:24:42.960 had to revive UH for October of five and forty 0:24:43.040 --> 0:24:48.080 six thousand, right, so we're revising the previous month off. 0:24:48.520 --> 0:24:51.960 We added two hundred and ten thousand jobs, the participation 0:24:52.119 --> 0:24:56.919 rate increased, and unemployment rate decreased. I don't see how 0:24:56.960 --> 0:25:01.200 that's a myth. Talk to us then about the reaction 0:25:01.320 --> 0:25:04.840 within some of them. For just for the record, I 0:25:04.920 --> 0:25:08.280