1 00:00:00,800 --> 00:00:04,040 Speaker 1: Welcome to the Bloomberg Markets Podcast. I'm Paul Sweeney alongside 2 00:00:04,040 --> 00:00:06,920 Speaker 1: my co host Matt Miller. Every business day we bring 3 00:00:06,960 --> 00:00:11,520 Speaker 1: you interviews from CEOs, market pros, and Bloomberg experts, along 4 00:00:11,560 --> 00:00:15,600 Speaker 1: with essential market moving news. Find the Bloomberg Markets podcast 5 00:00:15,600 --> 00:00:18,479 Speaker 1: called Apple Podcasts or wherever you listen to podcasts, and 6 00:00:18,480 --> 00:00:22,640 Speaker 1: at Bloomberg dot com slash podcast. I want to get 7 00:00:22,680 --> 00:00:27,280 Speaker 1: over right now to Dana Peterson UM to help us 8 00:00:27,600 --> 00:00:32,400 Speaker 1: assess what's going on here in uh in the economy. 9 00:00:32,720 --> 00:00:37,040 Speaker 1: Dana is Chief Economists and Center Leader of the Economy 10 00:00:37,400 --> 00:00:40,839 Speaker 1: at the Conference Board, and Um, you know, it's the 11 00:00:40,880 --> 00:00:44,800 Speaker 1: consumer that makes not just a huge difference in terms 12 00:00:44,840 --> 00:00:47,200 Speaker 1: of spending right now, but in terms of so many 13 00:00:48,159 --> 00:00:51,760 Speaker 1: other things, including returning to the workforce as as we 14 00:00:52,280 --> 00:00:56,960 Speaker 1: have seen highlighted by today's jobs report. Dana, what's the 15 00:00:57,000 --> 00:01:01,040 Speaker 1: state of the consumer's health and not just you know, financially, 16 00:01:01,200 --> 00:01:04,000 Speaker 1: but in terms of getting back out there looked like 17 00:01:04,080 --> 00:01:08,640 Speaker 1: to you yes, I mean, our last survey of consumer 18 00:01:08,680 --> 00:01:11,240 Speaker 1: confidence for November showed that there was a dip in 19 00:01:11,319 --> 00:01:15,119 Speaker 1: confidence overall. And when we ask consumers you know, what's 20 00:01:15,120 --> 00:01:19,039 Speaker 1: the problem, they cited two things. First, inflation, and the 21 00:01:19,120 --> 00:01:21,640 Speaker 1: second was COVID, And certainly when we look at the 22 00:01:21,760 --> 00:01:26,040 Speaker 1: number of delta variant and COVID cases overall in November, 23 00:01:26,080 --> 00:01:28,520 Speaker 1: they were still pretty elevated, even though they were not 24 00:01:28,600 --> 00:01:31,679 Speaker 1: as bad as say late August early September UM and 25 00:01:31,680 --> 00:01:34,680 Speaker 1: I think we saw that in today's report, where we 26 00:01:34,760 --> 00:01:39,360 Speaker 1: saw just two tens UH in terms of total payroll 27 00:01:39,440 --> 00:01:43,680 Speaker 1: gains and very little gains in terms of leisure and hospitality, 28 00:01:43,720 --> 00:01:47,800 Speaker 1: and even some other UH sectors UM in services had 29 00:01:47,840 --> 00:01:52,200 Speaker 1: negative readings. So if consumers are still not feeling safe 30 00:01:52,320 --> 00:01:54,880 Speaker 1: and want to get out there and engage in these 31 00:01:54,880 --> 00:01:58,200 Speaker 1: services that you have to enjoy outside of the home, 32 00:01:58,560 --> 00:02:01,240 Speaker 1: and that's certainly going to in fact effect how many 33 00:02:01,400 --> 00:02:05,880 Speaker 1: people UH employers are going to hire. It's been interesting 34 00:02:05,920 --> 00:02:09,080 Speaker 1: to watch wage growth, but then an uptick in inflation 35 00:02:09,160 --> 00:02:12,040 Speaker 1: as well the last print, and inflation was about six percent. 36 00:02:12,440 --> 00:02:15,519 Speaker 1: And I'm curious how you're thinking about the relatively strong 37 00:02:16,000 --> 00:02:19,720 Speaker 1: wage growth that we got in this report though if 38 00:02:19,720 --> 00:02:22,680 Speaker 1: it's not keeping up with a six percent inflation rate, 39 00:02:23,040 --> 00:02:26,679 Speaker 1: real wages are still negative. How do you view these 40 00:02:26,720 --> 00:02:31,560 Speaker 1: wage numbers? Sure, I think the wage numbers increasing, you know, 41 00:02:31,600 --> 00:02:35,280 Speaker 1: four percent year on year UM is really telling of 42 00:02:35,360 --> 00:02:38,920 Speaker 1: the continued labor shortages that we're seeing. And certainly some 43 00:02:39,160 --> 00:02:41,359 Speaker 1: industries are worse than others. So if you look at 44 00:02:41,360 --> 00:02:44,639 Speaker 1: the retail I'm sorry, If you look at Lesion, hospitality 45 00:02:45,040 --> 00:02:48,120 Speaker 1: wages were up almost thirteen percent year on year UM. 46 00:02:48,160 --> 00:02:54,320 Speaker 1: And also transportation, I'm sorry, yeah, it's transportation and also warehousing. Uh, 47 00:02:54,320 --> 00:02:57,160 Speaker 1: those prices were up more than six percent year on year. 48 00:02:57,200 --> 00:03:00,240 Speaker 1: So certain areas, certainly those areas that are seen need 49 00:03:00,440 --> 00:03:04,680 Speaker 1: most acute labor shortages. Again, those sectors that need people 50 00:03:04,720 --> 00:03:07,919 Speaker 1: to physically be at work, we're seeing much higher wage 51 00:03:07,960 --> 00:03:13,240 Speaker 1: increases relative to overall in terms of the participation rate. 52 00:03:13,320 --> 00:03:15,800 Speaker 1: Janet Yellen a couple of days ago and her testimony 53 00:03:15,840 --> 00:03:19,320 Speaker 1: said she thinks it's all about COVID that people are 54 00:03:19,320 --> 00:03:21,600 Speaker 1: afraid to come back in Goldman Sachs, I think put 55 00:03:21,600 --> 00:03:24,280 Speaker 1: out a report, uh, a couple of weeks ago, though, 56 00:03:24,320 --> 00:03:29,000 Speaker 1: saying it's really about um returns because people have made 57 00:03:29,040 --> 00:03:31,760 Speaker 1: so much money in the markets that those closed to 58 00:03:31,840 --> 00:03:34,000 Speaker 1: retirement have decided they could go ahead and do it. 59 00:03:34,400 --> 00:03:37,120 Speaker 1: How do you see it, Well, I think it's a 60 00:03:37,160 --> 00:03:41,200 Speaker 1: combination of both plus other things. So certainly many people 61 00:03:41,240 --> 00:03:44,120 Speaker 1: have retired early, either because they were afraid of getting 62 00:03:44,160 --> 00:03:47,240 Speaker 1: sick or because their forewing k plans really exploded and 63 00:03:47,280 --> 00:03:50,000 Speaker 1: they said, look, we feel financially safe, we can go 64 00:03:50,040 --> 00:03:52,560 Speaker 1: ahead and retire. And many of those people are probably 65 00:03:52,600 --> 00:03:55,560 Speaker 1: not going to return to the labor markets. Certainly, many 66 00:03:55,600 --> 00:03:59,240 Speaker 1: people are still afraid of getting sick. Um. Certainly, again 67 00:03:59,280 --> 00:04:03,600 Speaker 1: looking at the more confidence data, uh far, the virus 68 00:04:03,680 --> 00:04:06,280 Speaker 1: is still very real. But you also have other factors. 69 00:04:06,280 --> 00:04:08,800 Speaker 1: So for example, travel bands are still in play, so 70 00:04:08,880 --> 00:04:11,880 Speaker 1: that means that labor from abroad really isn't able to 71 00:04:11,920 --> 00:04:14,160 Speaker 1: come in. And still in some of those spots you 72 00:04:14,200 --> 00:04:17,839 Speaker 1: still have lingering childcare issues, which are especially acute for 73 00:04:18,800 --> 00:04:23,800 Speaker 1: women with working women with children. And so potentially the 74 00:04:23,839 --> 00:04:27,440 Speaker 1: participation rate may not return to the level that we 75 00:04:27,520 --> 00:04:31,200 Speaker 1: saw before the pandemic. So that suggests that maybe we're 76 00:04:31,240 --> 00:04:36,160 Speaker 1: closer to full employment than the participation rate is signaling. 77 00:04:37,120 --> 00:04:41,400 Speaker 1: How does this Federal Reserve respond? I would argue that 78 00:04:41,440 --> 00:04:43,760 Speaker 1: maybe we heard sort of a different tone out of J. 79 00:04:43,920 --> 00:04:47,640 Speaker 1: Powell this week. What does this mean for a FED meeting? 80 00:04:47,760 --> 00:04:52,560 Speaker 1: And on December? Well, I I think you know, when 81 00:04:52,640 --> 00:04:55,120 Speaker 1: looking at this employment report, it was mixed. On the 82 00:04:55,160 --> 00:04:58,760 Speaker 1: one hand, payrolls were pretty pathetic, but UM on the 83 00:04:58,800 --> 00:05:02,360 Speaker 1: household survey, we saw some good numbers there. Unemployment rate 84 00:05:03,080 --> 00:05:05,640 Speaker 1: continue to fall, and certainly when you look at unemployment 85 00:05:05,720 --> 00:05:09,200 Speaker 1: rates for different demographic groups, they're not as bad as 86 00:05:09,240 --> 00:05:13,359 Speaker 1: they used to be. UM. Also, if you again getting 87 00:05:13,400 --> 00:05:16,599 Speaker 1: back to the participation rate and reason for why you're 88 00:05:16,600 --> 00:05:19,719 Speaker 1: not going to see some people come back, then you 89 00:05:19,760 --> 00:05:21,920 Speaker 1: can say that, look, we're getting close to the full 90 00:05:21,920 --> 00:05:24,800 Speaker 1: employment maybe in some areas we've actually reached it. But 91 00:05:24,880 --> 00:05:27,240 Speaker 1: we also have to be very concerned about inflation. Look 92 00:05:27,279 --> 00:05:30,400 Speaker 1: at wages rising as acutely as they are, businesses are 93 00:05:30,560 --> 00:05:33,800 Speaker 1: most likely passing some of those wage costs and other 94 00:05:33,880 --> 00:05:37,719 Speaker 1: input costs down to consumers. That's showing up in consumer inflation. 95 00:05:38,200 --> 00:05:40,400 Speaker 1: And if you're the FED, you have to also be 96 00:05:40,480 --> 00:05:43,360 Speaker 1: concerned not just about how many people are working, but 97 00:05:43,400 --> 00:05:46,479 Speaker 1: they're they're buying power, and certainly they're buying power is 98 00:05:46,480 --> 00:05:52,279 Speaker 1: eroded if prices are rising, especially forces necessities like food, UM, 99 00:05:52,400 --> 00:05:56,040 Speaker 1: energy and shelter. Danny, you think do you think that 100 00:05:56,080 --> 00:05:58,040 Speaker 1: the FED is going to be able to was rate, 101 00:05:58,440 --> 00:06:03,560 Speaker 1: raise wages? Sorry, what am I talking about? Raise rates? 102 00:06:04,279 --> 00:06:08,080 Speaker 1: UM without hurting economic growth? I mean we're only at 103 00:06:08,240 --> 00:06:13,760 Speaker 1: you know, if they raise twice seventy five basis points, absolutely, 104 00:06:13,800 --> 00:06:16,440 Speaker 1: I think that they can raise. As you said, if 105 00:06:16,480 --> 00:06:19,160 Speaker 1: they raise interest rates two or three times, you still 106 00:06:19,440 --> 00:06:22,840 Speaker 1: very low interest rates, still very accommodative. And let's let's 107 00:06:22,839 --> 00:06:25,159 Speaker 1: think about what growth may look like next year, anywhere 108 00:06:25,200 --> 00:06:28,599 Speaker 1: from three to four percent, depending upon what you have 109 00:06:28,680 --> 00:06:32,119 Speaker 1: in there in terms of additional fiscal stimulus and also 110 00:06:32,160 --> 00:06:36,000 Speaker 1: effects from higher inflation. So three percent is still very strong, 111 00:06:36,160 --> 00:06:39,520 Speaker 1: especially when a potential GDP is probably close to two percent. 112 00:06:40,000 --> 00:06:43,560 Speaker 1: So you have that perfect backdrop for the said relatively 113 00:06:43,800 --> 00:06:46,600 Speaker 1: strong growth meaning well above trend at least one one 114 00:06:46,640 --> 00:06:51,520 Speaker 1: to two percentage points above trend um, elevated prices, rising 115 00:06:51,560 --> 00:06:58,840 Speaker 1: inflation expectations, and also an employment back drop that's significantly 116 00:06:58,880 --> 00:07:00,800 Speaker 1: better and deep. When you look at number of missing 117 00:07:00,839 --> 00:07:06,200 Speaker 1: persons from payrolls, you're around three million compared to two 118 00:07:06,240 --> 00:07:09,280 Speaker 1: million back in February March of last year. So we've 119 00:07:09,360 --> 00:07:13,520 Speaker 1: come a long way. Is that what I mean? A 120 00:07:13,560 --> 00:07:15,760 Speaker 1: flattening yield curve on the two s tends right now 121 00:07:15,800 --> 00:07:20,080 Speaker 1: below eighty basis points, and you could argue maybe eighty 122 00:07:20,120 --> 00:07:22,960 Speaker 1: basis points feels low. It's the flattest that we've had 123 00:07:23,120 --> 00:07:26,920 Speaker 1: since pre pandemic. And it's also the rate of change 124 00:07:26,920 --> 00:07:29,400 Speaker 1: at which we've gotten to eight basis points. What is 125 00:07:29,440 --> 00:07:32,400 Speaker 1: that flattening of the old curve telling you about a 126 00:07:32,440 --> 00:07:37,120 Speaker 1: pull forward of some of these rate hike expectations. Well, 127 00:07:37,160 --> 00:07:40,640 Speaker 1: I think markets are are kind of confused a little bit. 128 00:07:41,320 --> 00:07:43,880 Speaker 1: On the one hand, you do have the strongest signaling 129 00:07:43,960 --> 00:07:47,360 Speaker 1: from the FED. Certainly during the testimony from the chair 130 00:07:48,440 --> 00:07:51,840 Speaker 1: he said, let's get rid of that word transitory and 131 00:07:51,920 --> 00:07:54,960 Speaker 1: think more about the fact that some of these inflations 132 00:07:55,680 --> 00:07:59,040 Speaker 1: elements are potentially a little bit more persistent, given the 133 00:07:59,040 --> 00:08:01,160 Speaker 1: fact of the pandemic is persisting, and there may be 134 00:08:01,280 --> 00:08:04,920 Speaker 1: some other things that even after the pandemic may linger, 135 00:08:05,000 --> 00:08:09,440 Speaker 1: such as I wages. And also, meanwhile, you have the 136 00:08:09,560 --> 00:08:12,440 Speaker 1: armicron variant cropping up, and we know that the delta 137 00:08:12,560 --> 00:08:17,280 Speaker 1: variant has and is continuing to affect economic activity. So 138 00:08:17,320 --> 00:08:20,000 Speaker 1: I would imagine markets probably don't know which way to 139 00:08:20,080 --> 00:08:23,680 Speaker 1: go on this. But again, looking ahead to next year, 140 00:08:24,360 --> 00:08:27,920 Speaker 1: um in the springtime or mid year, the conditions are 141 00:08:27,960 --> 00:08:30,640 Speaker 1: probably going to be ripe. Among the things that I've 142 00:08:30,640 --> 00:08:33,439 Speaker 1: already mentioned for the FED to go ahead and start 143 00:08:34,200 --> 00:08:37,959 Speaker 1: raising interest rates a little bit. I want to ask 144 00:08:38,000 --> 00:08:40,680 Speaker 1: a question that I know you don't want to be political. 145 00:08:40,679 --> 00:08:43,000 Speaker 1: No economists wants to be political, unless you're Paul Krugman 146 00:08:43,120 --> 00:08:47,400 Speaker 1: or Brian Westbury, But build back better? Does that kind 147 00:08:47,440 --> 00:08:52,439 Speaker 1: of spending add to inflation? Or um? Does it help 148 00:08:52,520 --> 00:08:56,160 Speaker 1: us avoid inflation? Or is it a question of your 149 00:08:56,200 --> 00:09:00,120 Speaker 1: time span? I think a lot of it to a 150 00:09:00,200 --> 00:09:02,520 Speaker 1: combination of what's in the bill, which we we do 151 00:09:02,679 --> 00:09:06,600 Speaker 1: know um and certainly it's already been scored by the CBO, 152 00:09:06,960 --> 00:09:12,160 Speaker 1: and the timing of when the outlays happen, and certainly UM, 153 00:09:12,200 --> 00:09:15,559 Speaker 1: I think the outlays are meant to be accelerated across 154 00:09:15,600 --> 00:09:18,120 Speaker 1: the ten year period or however long the period is. 155 00:09:18,679 --> 00:09:21,960 Speaker 1: And so that means that you have stronger growth potentially 156 00:09:22,000 --> 00:09:24,679 Speaker 1: next year and and and also in the year after. 157 00:09:25,360 --> 00:09:27,959 Speaker 1: And so that means that you also may have stronger 158 00:09:28,000 --> 00:09:32,720 Speaker 1: demand UM, certainly from businesses that are uh, you know, 159 00:09:32,800 --> 00:09:37,240 Speaker 1: certainly investing such that they can meet the demands of 160 00:09:38,240 --> 00:09:41,120 Speaker 1: required by the bill UM. And so that means higher 161 00:09:41,160 --> 00:09:45,600 Speaker 1: prices and certainly UM potentially higher prices for consumers as well. So, 162 00:09:45,760 --> 00:09:50,240 Speaker 1: taking together stronger growth somewhat stronger inflation, and so again 163 00:09:50,280 --> 00:09:54,959 Speaker 1: that provides additional space are a reason for the said 164 00:09:55,000 --> 00:09:58,440 Speaker 1: to go ahead and begin raising interest rates from zero. 165 00:09:59,520 --> 00:10:02,040 Speaker 1: It's int sting. I do wonder you know, what do 166 00:10:02,080 --> 00:10:05,320 Speaker 1: you think about sort of this intersection of increase in 167 00:10:05,400 --> 00:10:10,079 Speaker 1: fiscal and monetary stimulus. I think we knew post financial 168 00:10:10,120 --> 00:10:13,319 Speaker 1: crisis there was a lot of pressure to do monetary 169 00:10:13,400 --> 00:10:17,480 Speaker 1: stimulus because we didn't have the fiscal stimulus this time around. 170 00:10:17,520 --> 00:10:20,680 Speaker 1: Actually could argue that the fiscal side has really been 171 00:10:21,160 --> 00:10:25,000 Speaker 1: front and center along with monetary policy. Does that sort 172 00:10:25,040 --> 00:10:28,439 Speaker 1: of also give the Fed officials room to pull back 173 00:10:28,800 --> 00:10:34,439 Speaker 1: because as notwith saying this massive fiscal stimulus that is coming, well, 174 00:10:34,480 --> 00:10:39,120 Speaker 1: I think, um, you're right. We had lots of fiscal 175 00:10:39,240 --> 00:10:43,760 Speaker 1: copious amounts of fiscal and monetary policy stimulus amid the pandemic. 176 00:10:43,960 --> 00:10:47,560 Speaker 1: And certainly when we look at the drivers of inflation, 177 00:10:48,040 --> 00:10:51,560 Speaker 1: all that is not linked to the FEDS low interest 178 00:10:51,640 --> 00:10:53,440 Speaker 1: rates or quantitae and vias, and some of it is 179 00:10:53,480 --> 00:10:57,360 Speaker 1: linked to the very strong demand for good um and 180 00:10:57,400 --> 00:11:01,800 Speaker 1: services you can consume at home from discill stimulus checks. 181 00:11:01,800 --> 00:11:04,160 Speaker 1: But still them all of the said is looked to 182 00:11:04,760 --> 00:11:09,000 Speaker 1: to manage the economy in the financial system and certainly 183 00:11:09,000 --> 00:11:14,120 Speaker 1: the FED can help cool lost some of the the 184 00:11:14,240 --> 00:11:18,080 Speaker 1: heat that we're seeing in the economy and certainly in 185 00:11:17,080 --> 00:11:22,400 Speaker 1: an inflation by raising interest rates. So again, you know, 186 00:11:22,600 --> 00:11:26,439 Speaker 1: we have two very powerful policy impulses, and certainly in 187 00:11:26,440 --> 00:11:30,359 Speaker 1: the FED can pull back on its policy impulses consistent 188 00:11:30,400 --> 00:11:34,040 Speaker 1: with its dual mandate. All right, Dana, thanks so much, 189 00:11:34,080 --> 00:11:37,800 Speaker 1: great to get your insight today. It's been a truly 190 00:11:37,920 --> 00:11:40,840 Speaker 1: fascinating I mean, the last couple of years have been 191 00:11:41,400 --> 00:11:44,320 Speaker 1: clearly unprecedented, but we've had an amazing week as well 192 00:11:44,360 --> 00:11:48,040 Speaker 1: in terms of trading. Dana Peterson, Chief Economist and Center 193 00:11:48,160 --> 00:11:53,600 Speaker 1: Leader of Economy, UM Strategy and Finance at the conference board, 194 00:11:58,200 --> 00:12:01,880 Speaker 1: let's get over right now and talk a more in 195 00:12:02,000 --> 00:12:06,160 Speaker 1: depth way about the job's number right now. Jani Bailey 196 00:12:06,280 --> 00:12:11,199 Speaker 1: joins US right now, chief workforce analysis at employee Bridge 197 00:12:11,480 --> 00:12:13,520 Speaker 1: and Johnny, you know, the President is going to come 198 00:12:13,520 --> 00:12:17,760 Speaker 1: out and say, yeah, I was a too. It was 199 00:12:17,800 --> 00:12:21,240 Speaker 1: a two hundred and fifty thousand, two hundred sixty thousand miss. 200 00:12:21,280 --> 00:12:24,760 Speaker 1: But um, the unemployment number has fallen to four point 201 00:12:24,800 --> 00:12:29,320 Speaker 1: two percent. Even experts didn't anticipate that. Are we in 202 00:12:29,360 --> 00:12:33,960 Speaker 1: a good place as far as unemployments? Concerned. Well, first 203 00:12:34,000 --> 00:12:35,840 Speaker 1: of all, thanks for having me. UM, great to be 204 00:12:35,920 --> 00:12:38,320 Speaker 1: with you this morning, and I can tell you this 205 00:12:38,600 --> 00:12:42,040 Speaker 1: Job's report, UM, it does have a little bit of 206 00:12:42,040 --> 00:12:46,200 Speaker 1: a mixed message because you're right, that headline number was 207 00:12:46,679 --> 00:12:49,800 Speaker 1: not that strong. We were expecting a number of five 208 00:12:49,880 --> 00:12:53,760 Speaker 1: hundred and fifty thousand jobs created and only saw two 209 00:12:53,840 --> 00:12:57,160 Speaker 1: hundred and ten thousand jobs created for the month of November, 210 00:12:57,280 --> 00:13:01,440 Speaker 1: so that was a disappointment. How Ever, there is a 211 00:13:01,440 --> 00:13:05,160 Speaker 1: lot of good news in this report. When you look 212 00:13:05,280 --> 00:13:10,640 Speaker 1: at the overall labor force. UM, we saw that almost 213 00:13:10,679 --> 00:13:15,320 Speaker 1: six hundred thousand people entered back into the labor force, 214 00:13:15,840 --> 00:13:18,120 Speaker 1: which was a really good sign. We have a hundred 215 00:13:18,120 --> 00:13:22,120 Speaker 1: and sixty two million people that are participating in the 216 00:13:22,200 --> 00:13:25,240 Speaker 1: labor force compared to November last year, it was a 217 00:13:25,320 --> 00:13:28,960 Speaker 1: hundred and sixty million UM. And even better is that 218 00:13:29,000 --> 00:13:34,040 Speaker 1: we're seeing the number of employed people expand as well. UM. 219 00:13:34,080 --> 00:13:37,640 Speaker 1: That was over one point one million people added in 220 00:13:37,679 --> 00:13:40,480 Speaker 1: the month of November, so we now have a hundred 221 00:13:40,559 --> 00:13:44,440 Speaker 1: and fifty five million people working and that's what's really 222 00:13:44,520 --> 00:13:48,760 Speaker 1: driving down that unemployment rate. So UM, there is a 223 00:13:48,840 --> 00:13:51,880 Speaker 1: lot of good news in this report as well. Though, 224 00:13:52,520 --> 00:13:54,960 Speaker 1: you know, I wouldn't be surprised. Maybe if next month 225 00:13:55,080 --> 00:13:57,520 Speaker 1: maybe they revised the numbers and it's a little bit 226 00:13:57,559 --> 00:13:59,560 Speaker 1: better and we see a little bit more job creation. 227 00:13:59,720 --> 00:14:03,920 Speaker 1: But UM, I was surprised that the that the overall 228 00:14:04,000 --> 00:14:08,160 Speaker 1: job creation number was only two UM and twenty one. 229 00:14:08,600 --> 00:14:10,480 Speaker 1: And you bring up a good point. Talk to us 230 00:14:10,480 --> 00:14:13,320 Speaker 1: about the revisions because we've seen a lot of those 231 00:14:13,920 --> 00:14:19,280 Speaker 1: in the past reports. Is there something UM changing were 232 00:14:19,360 --> 00:14:23,560 Speaker 1: different about the way the payrolls report is is calculated. 233 00:14:23,600 --> 00:14:26,560 Speaker 1: I mean, I've heard a lot of people starting their 234 00:14:26,600 --> 00:14:30,920 Speaker 1: own businesses and job formation and employ you know, new 235 00:14:31,240 --> 00:14:35,680 Speaker 1: sort of employer creation, and it's sort of changing the 236 00:14:35,680 --> 00:14:41,160 Speaker 1: way that we should be looking at a traditional payrolls report. Yeah, 237 00:14:41,240 --> 00:14:44,040 Speaker 1: you know, it's very interesting because then you can also 238 00:14:44,320 --> 00:14:48,200 Speaker 1: enter into the gig economy UM and and see, you know, 239 00:14:48,240 --> 00:14:51,280 Speaker 1: how many people are participating in that and actually working 240 00:14:51,360 --> 00:14:55,520 Speaker 1: and is that being calculated UM correctly. But I can 241 00:14:55,560 --> 00:14:59,760 Speaker 1: tell you from a revision standpoint, you know, UM not 242 00:15:00,120 --> 00:15:03,400 Speaker 1: has really changed in the way they're calculating it. We 243 00:15:03,400 --> 00:15:06,520 Speaker 1: we see every month, UM, the first Friday of the month, 244 00:15:06,640 --> 00:15:10,200 Speaker 1: when the Bureau of Labor Statistics puts out the report, 245 00:15:10,360 --> 00:15:15,280 Speaker 1: they will also revise the last or the previous two months, 246 00:15:15,840 --> 00:15:19,040 Speaker 1: and you know, the past few months we have seen 247 00:15:19,480 --> 00:15:24,600 Speaker 1: upward revisions. UM. This month in November, they actually revised 248 00:15:25,040 --> 00:15:29,440 Speaker 1: September and October ups and it was an additional eighty 249 00:15:29,560 --> 00:15:35,000 Speaker 1: seven thousand jobs created in those months. So the reports 250 00:15:35,000 --> 00:15:38,320 Speaker 1: were actually even better. And I wouldn't wouldn't be surprised 251 00:15:38,360 --> 00:15:40,760 Speaker 1: if we see that, you know, next month when we 252 00:15:40,800 --> 00:15:44,440 Speaker 1: look at the December jobs report, UM, maybe November will 253 00:15:44,440 --> 00:15:48,280 Speaker 1: get revived upwoard and well we will see a stronger number. UM. 254 00:15:48,360 --> 00:15:51,640 Speaker 1: But overall there you know, the sectors, if you really 255 00:15:51,680 --> 00:15:53,960 Speaker 1: kind of break it down and look at where the 256 00:15:54,040 --> 00:15:58,000 Speaker 1: jobs were created, UM, it was kind of interesting. We 257 00:15:58,080 --> 00:16:03,480 Speaker 1: did not see uh strong job growth in leisure and hospitality. 258 00:16:03,800 --> 00:16:07,239 Speaker 1: Only twenty three thousand jobs were created in that sector, 259 00:16:07,520 --> 00:16:11,360 Speaker 1: and that was expected to perform much stronger since we've 260 00:16:11,400 --> 00:16:14,680 Speaker 1: seen people start to travel again. UM. I don't know 261 00:16:14,720 --> 00:16:16,760 Speaker 1: about all of you, but you know, just being an 262 00:16:16,800 --> 00:16:20,320 Speaker 1: airport lately, the flights are packed, the airports are packed. 263 00:16:21,240 --> 00:16:27,320 Speaker 1: Restaurants certainly are you know, um at full capacity. So, 264 00:16:27,920 --> 00:16:30,680 Speaker 1: uh surprise, we didn't see a stronger number there. But 265 00:16:31,440 --> 00:16:36,240 Speaker 1: there was good job growth in construction and manufacturing. Both 266 00:16:36,280 --> 00:16:41,040 Speaker 1: sectors added thirty one thousand. We're also seeing trade and 267 00:16:41,160 --> 00:16:45,760 Speaker 1: transportation UM at about fifty thousand. It was a little 268 00:16:45,800 --> 00:16:49,120 Speaker 1: over forty nine tho jobs created in that sector. So 269 00:16:49,200 --> 00:16:52,920 Speaker 1: I think it really speaks to our economy right now 270 00:16:52,960 --> 00:16:56,600 Speaker 1: in the demand and supply chain, UM, there's a lot 271 00:16:56,680 --> 00:17:00,160 Speaker 1: of jobs available and where we're adding people back back 272 00:17:00,160 --> 00:17:02,520 Speaker 1: in those sectors. I mean there are a ton of 273 00:17:02,600 --> 00:17:04,639 Speaker 1: job We we focus so much on the people that 274 00:17:04,680 --> 00:17:08,760 Speaker 1: haven't come back into the labor force because the participation 275 00:17:08,840 --> 00:17:13,680 Speaker 1: rate is has historically been so important. UM. But there 276 00:17:13,680 --> 00:17:17,959 Speaker 1: are so many openings there. And your company, employee Bridge, 277 00:17:18,040 --> 00:17:22,760 Speaker 1: is widely recognized as the biggest industrial staffing firm in America. 278 00:17:23,080 --> 00:17:26,720 Speaker 1: Where where do you see the most need right now? 279 00:17:27,000 --> 00:17:31,720 Speaker 1: And how difficult is it for you to fill those positions? Yes, 280 00:17:31,840 --> 00:17:36,200 Speaker 1: So at employee Bridge, we have organized ourselves really by brands. 281 00:17:36,280 --> 00:17:40,560 Speaker 1: So we have a division called pro Drivers and they 282 00:17:40,600 --> 00:17:46,040 Speaker 1: place UM CDL drivers and also non CDL drivers. UM. 283 00:17:46,240 --> 00:17:51,719 Speaker 1: There is demand just right now for for drivers. So 284 00:17:51,800 --> 00:17:55,240 Speaker 1: that is an area UM that we're seeing pay rates 285 00:17:55,320 --> 00:18:00,119 Speaker 1: significantly up there, up eight year over year, and we 286 00:18:00,160 --> 00:18:02,639 Speaker 1: have tons of job openings. In fact, we could I 287 00:18:02,720 --> 00:18:05,080 Speaker 1: was talking to the president of that division yesterday. He said, 288 00:18:05,080 --> 00:18:08,120 Speaker 1: we could double inside if we could just find more people. Well, 289 00:18:08,240 --> 00:18:09,720 Speaker 1: and by the way, I don't want to get too 290 00:18:09,760 --> 00:18:11,879 Speaker 1: far off from this tangent because I've always wanted to 291 00:18:11,880 --> 00:18:15,720 Speaker 1: be a truck driver, long haul truck driver. But well, 292 00:18:17,560 --> 00:18:20,639 Speaker 1: I've looked, I've looked into it though I've I've been 293 00:18:20,880 --> 00:18:23,840 Speaker 1: reading a lot more about it lately. And not only 294 00:18:24,200 --> 00:18:27,800 Speaker 1: is it a incredibly difficult you know, just to do 295 00:18:27,920 --> 00:18:30,840 Speaker 1: to operate these big rigs, um, and you want to 296 00:18:30,840 --> 00:18:34,160 Speaker 1: operate them safely, so you need experience, but it's it's 297 00:18:34,200 --> 00:18:37,040 Speaker 1: not easy to get licensed either. I mean, how how 298 00:18:37,040 --> 00:18:40,840 Speaker 1: difficult is it for someone who who'se you know, biggest 299 00:18:40,840 --> 00:18:44,159 Speaker 1: truck experience is like an F one fifty to be 300 00:18:44,240 --> 00:18:49,280 Speaker 1: driving an eighteen wheeler across America. Well, there's you know, 301 00:18:49,520 --> 00:18:53,720 Speaker 1: great training programs and schools to teach them. So if 302 00:18:53,800 --> 00:18:56,800 Speaker 1: they're they have to be twenty one years old um 303 00:18:57,000 --> 00:19:02,639 Speaker 1: and a clean, cleaned living record, um. But there's great 304 00:19:02,680 --> 00:19:05,960 Speaker 1: opportunities and many companies are you know, offering to pay 305 00:19:06,000 --> 00:19:09,920 Speaker 1: for the training to help them, you know, and get them, 306 00:19:09,960 --> 00:19:12,560 Speaker 1: you know, put them to work. So lots of opportunities 307 00:19:12,560 --> 00:19:16,000 Speaker 1: in that area. Interesting. Is it happening fast enough though? 308 00:19:16,040 --> 00:19:20,080 Speaker 1: I mean overall too across sectors? Where where are all 309 00:19:20,160 --> 00:19:23,520 Speaker 1: the workers? What is not in I mean there are 310 00:19:23,600 --> 00:19:26,960 Speaker 1: the pay increases that we've seen, not enough to bring 311 00:19:27,000 --> 00:19:31,960 Speaker 1: workers back. Well, that is such a great question, um, 312 00:19:32,119 --> 00:19:34,800 Speaker 1: And I think everyone's kind of scratching their head. You know, 313 00:19:34,840 --> 00:19:40,200 Speaker 1: it's it's probably a combination of things. Because certainly COVID 314 00:19:40,680 --> 00:19:45,760 Speaker 1: um impacted many families. We saw, you know, women drop 315 00:19:45,760 --> 00:19:48,080 Speaker 1: out of the workforce that how to stay home and 316 00:19:48,160 --> 00:19:52,119 Speaker 1: maybe help their children with online schooling. Um. We've also 317 00:19:52,200 --> 00:19:55,560 Speaker 1: seen that, you know, the impact of covid has maybe 318 00:19:55,600 --> 00:19:58,600 Speaker 1: made people reevaluate, you know, are we going to have 319 00:19:58,720 --> 00:20:03,160 Speaker 1: to you know, working you know, parents or maybe one 320 00:20:03,280 --> 00:20:05,960 Speaker 1: going to stay home. People are reevaluating themselves, So that 321 00:20:06,720 --> 00:20:10,560 Speaker 1: certainly has been an impact. Safety health and safety is 322 00:20:10,640 --> 00:20:15,240 Speaker 1: still a factor. UM. But you know, when I look 323 00:20:15,280 --> 00:20:19,120 Speaker 1: at labor participation and you break it down, I'm I'm 324 00:20:19,119 --> 00:20:23,200 Speaker 1: more concerned that we don't see enough women actually participating 325 00:20:23,240 --> 00:20:25,600 Speaker 1: in the workforce. So I think employers are going to 326 00:20:25,680 --> 00:20:28,919 Speaker 1: have to think differently about how they and you know, 327 00:20:29,000 --> 00:20:33,080 Speaker 1: attract women to the workforce, whether it's more flexibility, more 328 00:20:33,200 --> 00:20:38,760 Speaker 1: work from home opportunities. Um, there's an opportunity to increase 329 00:20:38,840 --> 00:20:42,280 Speaker 1: labor participation that someone could kind of crack the code 330 00:20:42,440 --> 00:20:44,560 Speaker 1: on figuring out how to make it more attractive for 331 00:20:44,640 --> 00:20:46,879 Speaker 1: women to come back. Well, I have a great idea. 332 00:20:47,160 --> 00:20:53,359 Speaker 1: What if What if major employers also had daycare in preschool? Yeah, 333 00:20:53,400 --> 00:20:55,959 Speaker 1: the major employers. I mean, it is something you know, 334 00:20:56,040 --> 00:20:58,359 Speaker 1: to think about. For a while, I felt like we 335 00:20:58,359 --> 00:21:01,960 Speaker 1: were headed down, you know track, And you really don't 336 00:21:02,000 --> 00:21:05,840 Speaker 1: hear that as much today, partly because of COVID. You know, 337 00:21:06,040 --> 00:21:11,000 Speaker 1: many UM employers have moved the professional jobs and said, 338 00:21:11,040 --> 00:21:16,040 Speaker 1: you know, you can work remotely or have a hybrid schedule. Um. 339 00:21:16,119 --> 00:21:19,200 Speaker 1: But that is something the major employers where they have all, 340 00:21:19,760 --> 00:21:23,560 Speaker 1: you know, all of their employees at big locations. UM, 341 00:21:23,640 --> 00:21:27,080 Speaker 1: that would be a great, great benefit to offer employees. 342 00:21:27,119 --> 00:21:28,560 Speaker 1: So I don't want to get again. I don't want 343 00:21:28,560 --> 00:21:31,120 Speaker 1: to get political. And I've been flamed lately for being 344 00:21:31,200 --> 00:21:35,480 Speaker 1: a bleeding hero. Can you believe that on on social media? Um? 345 00:21:35,560 --> 00:21:38,320 Speaker 1: Do you think build Back Better, if passed in its 346 00:21:38,359 --> 00:21:42,600 Speaker 1: current state, would help to increase to get women back 347 00:21:42,680 --> 00:21:49,159 Speaker 1: into the labor force. Oh gosh, that is a loaded question. Um. Okay, 348 00:21:49,160 --> 00:21:50,720 Speaker 1: I didn't mean to I don't. I didn't mean for 349 00:21:50,720 --> 00:21:53,199 Speaker 1: it to be that way. I really don't know. No, 350 00:21:53,520 --> 00:21:56,879 Speaker 1: I think you know, I'm not I have to be honest, 351 00:21:56,880 --> 00:22:00,160 Speaker 1: but I'm not sure that that is the ants, sir. 352 00:22:00,240 --> 00:22:05,240 Speaker 1: I think we do need programs absolutely that support women, UM, 353 00:22:05,280 --> 00:22:11,199 Speaker 1: that supports families, UM, and you know, offer training and 354 00:22:11,400 --> 00:22:15,800 Speaker 1: opportunities to get people back to back to work. My 355 00:22:15,960 --> 00:22:21,440 Speaker 1: concern would be too much social assistance is not going 356 00:22:21,520 --> 00:22:24,600 Speaker 1: to help get people back to work. And there's got 357 00:22:24,600 --> 00:22:26,480 Speaker 1: to be a balance. So that's why I say that's 358 00:22:26,480 --> 00:22:29,280 Speaker 1: a loaded question. There needs to be a balance. We 359 00:22:29,440 --> 00:22:36,679 Speaker 1: definitely you know, you can be an economist, well, I 360 00:22:36,720 --> 00:22:39,040 Speaker 1: can't say it's I see it more so on the 361 00:22:39,040 --> 00:22:42,160 Speaker 1: front lines with workers. When we were you know, when 362 00:22:42,200 --> 00:22:45,359 Speaker 1: our country was offering all of the supplemental insurance for 363 00:22:45,400 --> 00:22:49,080 Speaker 1: the unemployment benefits, you know, we had many people that 364 00:22:49,080 --> 00:22:50,560 Speaker 1: we would call and so, we have a great job 365 00:22:50,600 --> 00:22:52,760 Speaker 1: for you, and they would say, well, I'm actually making 366 00:22:52,800 --> 00:22:57,080 Speaker 1: more money on unemployment right now, and so why would 367 00:22:57,160 --> 00:23:00,520 Speaker 1: I risk going to work? And so that that's always 368 00:23:00,560 --> 00:23:03,680 Speaker 1: a topic that's debated, but I could tell you firsthand 369 00:23:04,040 --> 00:23:06,359 Speaker 1: this this was a real issue that we dealt with 370 00:23:06,440 --> 00:23:09,400 Speaker 1: for a while and now that that's kind of run 371 00:23:09,400 --> 00:23:11,359 Speaker 1: its course, and those benefits did go away in the 372 00:23:11,440 --> 00:23:14,920 Speaker 1: beginning of September, but it took a while for us 373 00:23:14,960 --> 00:23:17,960 Speaker 1: to kind of get back and get people participating in 374 00:23:17,960 --> 00:23:21,040 Speaker 1: the workforce. UM. And I can tell you right now 375 00:23:21,359 --> 00:23:25,080 Speaker 1: we're seeing more applications, so so to you know, to 376 00:23:25,119 --> 00:23:28,520 Speaker 1: answer your your question, I think it's a balance. Let's 377 00:23:28,560 --> 00:23:32,480 Speaker 1: be careful that we don't offer so much social assistance 378 00:23:32,520 --> 00:23:35,760 Speaker 1: that people don't want to come back to work and 379 00:23:35,800 --> 00:23:38,000 Speaker 1: don't want to participate. We can't make it too easy. 380 00:23:38,080 --> 00:23:41,080 Speaker 1: You know, our country was built on strong you know, 381 00:23:41,240 --> 00:23:44,560 Speaker 1: values and work ethic and we need people out there 382 00:23:44,560 --> 00:23:47,360 Speaker 1: working in all sectors. We need them training, we need 383 00:23:47,400 --> 00:23:51,400 Speaker 1: them learning, um, and we need them participating. I'm really 384 00:23:51,440 --> 00:23:55,200 Speaker 1: passionate about labor participation. We need to get more people participating. 385 00:23:56,000 --> 00:23:59,520 Speaker 1: Really appreciate your time. What a wide ranging interview. Johnny 386 00:23:59,560 --> 00:24:08,040 Speaker 1: Biley of Horse Title here chief workforce analyst at Employee Bridge. 387 00:24:08,600 --> 00:24:10,240 Speaker 1: Let's get over and out of Tom Giinville. As I said, 388 00:24:10,240 --> 00:24:15,040 Speaker 1: he's going to join us from LaSalle Network, leading American 389 00:24:15,280 --> 00:24:19,360 Speaker 1: staffing firm to talk about the job's number. We had 390 00:24:19,400 --> 00:24:24,560 Speaker 1: a big miss, Uh, Tom and nonetheless unemployment came down 391 00:24:24,560 --> 00:24:28,760 Speaker 1: to four point two with the participation rate rising. What's 392 00:24:28,760 --> 00:24:33,360 Speaker 1: your take, did we have a big miss? I get 393 00:24:33,400 --> 00:24:36,720 Speaker 1: it that economists want to look and predict the future 394 00:24:36,720 --> 00:24:38,760 Speaker 1: of what everything is going to be. You know, we 395 00:24:38,800 --> 00:24:42,960 Speaker 1: had to revive UH for October of five and forty 396 00:24:43,040 --> 00:24:48,080 Speaker 1: six thousand, right, so we're revising the previous month off. 397 00:24:48,520 --> 00:24:51,960 Speaker 1: We added two hundred and ten thousand jobs, the participation 398 00:24:52,119 --> 00:24:56,919 Speaker 1: rate increased, and unemployment rate decreased. I don't see how 399 00:24:56,960 --> 00:25:01,200 Speaker 1: that's a myth. Talk to us then about the reaction 400 00:25:01,320 --> 00:25:04,840 Speaker 1: within some of them. For just for the record, I 401 00:25:04,920 --> 00:25:08,280 Speaker 1: get your point, but um, we had a print of 402 00:25:08,320 --> 00:25:13,240 Speaker 1: two ten and we were looking for five fifty. So well, Tom, 403 00:25:13,320 --> 00:25:16,520 Speaker 1: take into us for this a little bit then, I mean, 404 00:25:16,560 --> 00:25:19,520 Speaker 1: if you're thinking about all the visions higher, is that 405 00:25:19,680 --> 00:25:21,600 Speaker 1: the case here? Of what we're thinking about is that 406 00:25:21,640 --> 00:25:24,760 Speaker 1: we'll get another revision next month for this month and 407 00:25:24,800 --> 00:25:27,360 Speaker 1: boost the top line number that that, of course Matt 408 00:25:27,400 --> 00:25:32,280 Speaker 1: Matt is referring to. Historically, there there is a percentage 409 00:25:32,280 --> 00:25:35,359 Speaker 1: of the population that's unemployable and people don't want to 410 00:25:35,359 --> 00:25:38,280 Speaker 1: talk about that, and sure as heck, politicians don't. The 411 00:25:38,440 --> 00:25:40,359 Speaker 1: number used to be between two and a half and 412 00:25:40,400 --> 00:25:44,240 Speaker 1: three percent of the population is unemployable, and whether for 413 00:25:44,320 --> 00:25:47,240 Speaker 1: whatever reason they don't want to they don't have the abilities. 414 00:25:47,400 --> 00:25:50,840 Speaker 1: There's a discrepancy and skill sets versus what's in demand. 415 00:25:51,280 --> 00:25:54,080 Speaker 1: But there's a certain percentages of the population that isn't 416 00:25:54,080 --> 00:25:57,360 Speaker 1: a contributing member of the workforce. And what we've got 417 00:25:57,480 --> 00:26:01,159 Speaker 1: is a situation where every single if we if we 418 00:26:01,200 --> 00:26:04,320 Speaker 1: remove politics, right and I'm a centrist, if we remove 419 00:26:04,400 --> 00:26:08,000 Speaker 1: politics from this equation and and Biden and Trump and 420 00:26:08,040 --> 00:26:11,720 Speaker 1: all this craziness and COVID, what we still have is 421 00:26:11,720 --> 00:26:17,240 Speaker 1: a small percentage of holdback due to COVID, meaning parents 422 00:26:17,400 --> 00:26:19,840 Speaker 1: who left the workforce and are still out of the 423 00:26:19,880 --> 00:26:23,040 Speaker 1: workforce because they need to be home when their kids 424 00:26:23,040 --> 00:26:25,399 Speaker 1: are sick or if there's COVID, you also have a 425 00:26:25,400 --> 00:26:28,679 Speaker 1: second percentage of population that people were contemplating leaving the 426 00:26:28,680 --> 00:26:31,800 Speaker 1: workforce to be stay at home parents, and with COVID 427 00:26:31,840 --> 00:26:34,280 Speaker 1: they realize how much they actually enjoy being around their 428 00:26:34,359 --> 00:26:36,720 Speaker 1: kids and they don't want to come back. You can't 429 00:26:36,760 --> 00:26:40,320 Speaker 1: recreate you can't recreate history. That's just factual. So now 430 00:26:40,359 --> 00:26:43,560 Speaker 1: what we've got is a more stabilized situation. I know 431 00:26:43,680 --> 00:26:46,920 Speaker 1: we have the the other variant that's potentially coming through 432 00:26:46,920 --> 00:26:50,160 Speaker 1: from Africa. Um, but we can't worry about that until 433 00:26:50,400 --> 00:26:52,879 Speaker 1: we have something to worry about in this country. What 434 00:26:53,040 --> 00:26:56,760 Speaker 1: we have is, as I said earlier, participants participation rate 435 00:26:57,080 --> 00:27:02,000 Speaker 1: is at the highest level since pre pandemic. Right, it 436 00:27:02,080 --> 00:27:04,680 Speaker 1: doesn't get me, It really doesn't get that much better 437 00:27:04,680 --> 00:27:09,960 Speaker 1: than that unemployment drop. Companies are hiring now ten thousand 438 00:27:10,040 --> 00:27:14,639 Speaker 1: maybe because give or take, that might be the only 439 00:27:14,680 --> 00:27:17,919 Speaker 1: available workers to add to the situation who want to 440 00:27:17,960 --> 00:27:24,520 Speaker 1: work interesting, Uh take, and I get um your points? 441 00:27:25,240 --> 00:27:29,600 Speaker 1: What about your at your business right now, little sound network? Um, 442 00:27:29,680 --> 00:27:33,280 Speaker 1: how in demand are your services? Because we see an 443 00:27:33,280 --> 00:27:36,960 Speaker 1: amazing amount of job openings and how difficult are you 444 00:27:37,000 --> 00:27:41,440 Speaker 1: finding them to fill? We are up almost fifty over 445 00:27:41,480 --> 00:27:45,200 Speaker 1: a year ago. Our October itself was up over fifty 446 00:27:45,280 --> 00:27:48,919 Speaker 1: seven percent over a year ago. Our temporary staff and 447 00:27:48,960 --> 00:27:52,959 Speaker 1: we do all white collar are temporary staffing business is 448 00:27:53,359 --> 00:27:56,600 Speaker 1: we can't find enough people. Our search business is the 449 00:27:56,640 --> 00:28:00,560 Speaker 1: best it's ever been in twenty four years. And internally 450 00:28:01,040 --> 00:28:03,439 Speaker 1: we are high. We've hired over a hundred people this 451 00:28:03,520 --> 00:28:06,600 Speaker 1: year in recruiting in sales roles, and we're adding another 452 00:28:06,720 --> 00:28:09,600 Speaker 1: hundred and fifty next year. Business has never been better, 453 00:28:09,640 --> 00:28:12,119 Speaker 1: and we do operations in thirty eight of the of 454 00:28:12,160 --> 00:28:16,480 Speaker 1: the continental forty eight. And is this the wage growth 455 00:28:16,520 --> 00:28:19,240 Speaker 1: that we are seeing that comes in again pretty strong 456 00:28:19,240 --> 00:28:23,080 Speaker 1: in this report that is attracting um some of those 457 00:28:23,080 --> 00:28:26,840 Speaker 1: people to come back out and and continue to be 458 00:28:27,000 --> 00:28:29,959 Speaker 1: participating in this labor force. Is it a wage growth 459 00:28:30,000 --> 00:28:34,680 Speaker 1: that that you're finally seen. Yeah, I mean people people 460 00:28:34,680 --> 00:28:37,280 Speaker 1: want to work when they're paid more, There's no doubt 461 00:28:37,320 --> 00:28:39,800 Speaker 1: about it. But I also believe that there was a 462 00:28:39,800 --> 00:28:43,480 Speaker 1: certain percentage of the population that didn't under you know, 463 00:28:43,520 --> 00:28:45,680 Speaker 1: we want to talk about, Oh, September numbers will be 464 00:28:45,720 --> 00:28:49,840 Speaker 1: great because the federal unemploymental stop and and people need 465 00:28:49,880 --> 00:28:51,840 Speaker 1: to get back to work. And maybe we just saw 466 00:28:51,960 --> 00:28:54,840 Speaker 1: two or three months lag from that number two, And 467 00:28:54,920 --> 00:28:59,840 Speaker 1: that is people just the until the benefits stop. Then 468 00:29:00,000 --> 00:29:02,240 Speaker 1: people start to look, and then it takes time when 469 00:29:02,240 --> 00:29:04,920 Speaker 1: they start to look to find a job, and and 470 00:29:04,960 --> 00:29:08,560 Speaker 1: then you contribute to the system here. So just because 471 00:29:08,600 --> 00:29:12,280 Speaker 1: the benefits ended at the end of August doesn't mean 472 00:29:12,320 --> 00:29:14,200 Speaker 1: that all of a sudden the September numbers were going 473 00:29:14,240 --> 00:29:16,880 Speaker 1: to be great. I'm not so sure that we didn't 474 00:29:16,920 --> 00:29:20,640 Speaker 1: see a lag from the benefits ending and in addition 475 00:29:20,720 --> 00:29:25,080 Speaker 1: to increased wages and increase the people realizing that we 476 00:29:25,120 --> 00:29:27,320 Speaker 1: are not going to turn into a socialist government and 477 00:29:27,360 --> 00:29:28,920 Speaker 1: everything is going to be free, and I gotta get 478 00:29:28,960 --> 00:29:32,960 Speaker 1: my head back in the game. Wow, if everything we're free, 479 00:29:33,520 --> 00:29:36,400 Speaker 1: I live under a socialist government here in a sense 480 00:29:36,600 --> 00:29:40,640 Speaker 1: social democrats. A lot of stuff is free kind of, 481 00:29:41,320 --> 00:29:56,760 Speaker 1: but I have to pay half of my income in taxes. Now, 482 00:29:56,880 --> 00:30:00,200 Speaker 1: let's talk about the energy industry, right and out with 483 00:30:00,200 --> 00:30:02,960 Speaker 1: the chief executive of e O S Energy Enterprises, Joe 484 00:30:03,000 --> 00:30:07,040 Speaker 1: master Angelo joins us UH and we are going to 485 00:30:07,120 --> 00:30:10,360 Speaker 1: get a little bit into the Infrastructure Bill and some 486 00:30:10,600 --> 00:30:15,640 Speaker 1: grants to expand US battery research. First of all, Joe, UM, 487 00:30:15,680 --> 00:30:18,520 Speaker 1: what's your take on what we saw in the Infrastructure 488 00:30:18,520 --> 00:30:20,240 Speaker 1: Bill and how do you think it's going to change 489 00:30:20,240 --> 00:30:24,200 Speaker 1: the energy industry. Yeah, I think you know, the industry 490 00:30:24,200 --> 00:30:26,360 Speaker 1: and of itself. We're at a tipping point right now 491 00:30:26,640 --> 00:30:32,200 Speaker 1: of really accelerating into more and more um energy storage, 492 00:30:32,240 --> 00:30:34,760 Speaker 1: more and more renewables, and I think what you see 493 00:30:35,160 --> 00:30:37,240 Speaker 1: in the Infrastructure Bill is going to help us get there. 494 00:30:37,240 --> 00:30:39,640 Speaker 1: And I also think it's important to think about in 495 00:30:39,720 --> 00:30:42,600 Speaker 1: the Build Back Better Bill as well. There's some great 496 00:30:42,640 --> 00:30:45,959 Speaker 1: incentives for people to make investments in the standalone energy 497 00:30:46,000 --> 00:30:49,560 Speaker 1: storage outside of just doing energy storage with solar, which 498 00:30:49,600 --> 00:30:51,720 Speaker 1: is also going to help us firm up the grid 499 00:30:51,760 --> 00:30:54,960 Speaker 1: and allow higher use of renewables. Joe, I think it's 500 00:30:54,960 --> 00:30:58,400 Speaker 1: so fascinating. I think six months ago we were all 501 00:30:58,440 --> 00:31:01,000 Speaker 1: talking about the chip shortage, and know we're still talking 502 00:31:01,040 --> 00:31:04,080 Speaker 1: about the chip shortage, but everyone says that a year 503 00:31:04,160 --> 00:31:07,320 Speaker 1: from now it is going to be a battery shortage. 504 00:31:07,480 --> 00:31:11,800 Speaker 1: Do you agree depends on the technology, I think, I 505 00:31:11,880 --> 00:31:15,960 Speaker 1: think um, I think the shortage is driven by the demand. 506 00:31:16,480 --> 00:31:19,240 Speaker 1: I think what we've tried to do is is position 507 00:31:19,280 --> 00:31:21,640 Speaker 1: ourselves to be able to scale rapidly with how we've 508 00:31:21,680 --> 00:31:25,560 Speaker 1: designed both are our manufacturing process and our supply chain. 509 00:31:26,120 --> 00:31:27,960 Speaker 1: And we're ready to scale. And we're in the midst 510 00:31:28,000 --> 00:31:32,240 Speaker 1: of investing in our factory in in Turtle Creek outside Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania. 511 00:31:32,280 --> 00:31:34,600 Speaker 1: We've added, you know, close to a hundred jobs, and 512 00:31:34,600 --> 00:31:38,280 Speaker 1: we're continuing to add manufacturing capacity to go from a 513 00:31:38,440 --> 00:31:42,640 Speaker 1: run rate of around two hundred fifty megawatt hours per 514 00:31:42,760 --> 00:31:45,479 Speaker 1: year to eight hundred megawatt hours pre by the end 515 00:31:45,480 --> 00:31:48,120 Speaker 1: of next year. So we're excited to keep building out 516 00:31:48,160 --> 00:31:51,040 Speaker 1: and just keep working through the challenges and bring great 517 00:31:51,080 --> 00:31:54,400 Speaker 1: technology to market. Tell us, by the way, for those 518 00:31:54,440 --> 00:31:56,320 Speaker 1: who don't know what you do at EOS, the ticker 519 00:31:56,400 --> 00:32:00,280 Speaker 1: is e O se UM. But you have a long 520 00:32:00,360 --> 00:32:06,160 Speaker 1: career in working in power at GE from turbo machinery 521 00:32:06,240 --> 00:32:11,040 Speaker 1: to gas power systems. What do you do now at EOS? Yeah? Yeah, man, 522 00:32:11,280 --> 00:32:13,760 Speaker 1: I've been in the energy industry for for thirty years. 523 00:32:14,320 --> 00:32:19,080 Speaker 1: UM Eos is a is a stationary energy storage company 524 00:32:19,120 --> 00:32:24,959 Speaker 1: that is based on zinc Roman technology for its electro 525 00:32:25,040 --> 00:32:29,240 Speaker 1: like that allows you to store and discharge energy UM back, 526 00:32:29,400 --> 00:32:31,520 Speaker 1: pull energy from the grid and discharge it back on 527 00:32:31,600 --> 00:32:34,640 Speaker 1: the grid. We do this with earth abundant, non toxic, 528 00:32:34,720 --> 00:32:37,880 Speaker 1: fully recyclable materials, and do this in a way that 529 00:32:37,920 --> 00:32:41,760 Speaker 1: allows extreme operating flexibility. It's it's a it's a great 530 00:32:41,880 --> 00:32:45,080 Speaker 1: technology whose time has arrived, and it's just very exciting 531 00:32:45,120 --> 00:32:47,760 Speaker 1: to lead the firm. Can you talk to us, Joan. 532 00:32:47,840 --> 00:32:51,479 Speaker 1: I'm thinking big picture here, the shift to renewables and 533 00:32:51,560 --> 00:32:56,640 Speaker 1: the impact that that has had on gas prices. There 534 00:32:56,680 --> 00:32:58,960 Speaker 1: have been some concerns that the way in which we're 535 00:32:59,000 --> 00:33:02,520 Speaker 1: shifting we're not doing it in a reliable way. What 536 00:33:02,720 --> 00:33:06,280 Speaker 1: is this sort of ideal shift? What does that look 537 00:33:06,360 --> 00:33:09,640 Speaker 1: like to you? Yeah, so funny, I would I would 538 00:33:09,680 --> 00:33:12,880 Speaker 1: start off and always say that the energy value chain 539 00:33:12,920 --> 00:33:14,720 Speaker 1: is always going to have a mix of technologies, and 540 00:33:14,760 --> 00:33:19,000 Speaker 1: I believe that there is a mix for gas turbine technology. 541 00:33:19,000 --> 00:33:22,120 Speaker 1: As we move forward, as renewables have come on, you 542 00:33:22,160 --> 00:33:25,080 Speaker 1: know that the reality of renewables is the sun isn't 543 00:33:25,080 --> 00:33:27,480 Speaker 1: always shining and the wind isn't always blowing, so you 544 00:33:27,560 --> 00:33:30,600 Speaker 1: have these moments of time where either you have too 545 00:33:30,720 --> 00:33:33,800 Speaker 1: much or you don't have enough. And what the industry 546 00:33:33,840 --> 00:33:36,920 Speaker 1: is now moving towards is to add this stationary storage 547 00:33:37,000 --> 00:33:40,479 Speaker 1: to allow you to store energy when there's excess and 548 00:33:40,640 --> 00:33:43,440 Speaker 1: discharge it when there's a need. So it allows those 549 00:33:43,920 --> 00:33:48,480 Speaker 1: renewable technologies to become a firming resource so that when 550 00:33:48,520 --> 00:33:50,720 Speaker 1: we flipped the switch in our house, the lights come on. 551 00:33:50,840 --> 00:33:52,840 Speaker 1: And that that's the key trick here. As you want 552 00:33:52,880 --> 00:33:56,120 Speaker 1: to add more renewables, you need reliable storage in order 553 00:33:56,160 --> 00:34:00,760 Speaker 1: to do that. It's it's such a fast eating industry 554 00:34:00,800 --> 00:34:03,760 Speaker 1: and I think it's going to become more and more important. 555 00:34:04,280 --> 00:34:07,080 Speaker 1: What do you think in terms of the growth, what's 556 00:34:07,120 --> 00:34:10,320 Speaker 1: your what's your forecast for the growth of just the 557 00:34:10,440 --> 00:34:15,320 Speaker 1: energy storage industry. I think it depends on it depends 558 00:34:15,360 --> 00:34:18,719 Speaker 1: on what forecasts you look at. I mean, we're in 559 00:34:18,880 --> 00:34:21,440 Speaker 1: we're in a tremendous growth cycle where you're talking about 560 00:34:21,840 --> 00:34:25,759 Speaker 1: you know, compound average growth rates in as we look 561 00:34:25,800 --> 00:34:28,279 Speaker 1: out over the over the next few years. I think 562 00:34:28,280 --> 00:34:30,839 Speaker 1: a catalyst to accelerate that growth goes back to where 563 00:34:30,840 --> 00:34:33,759 Speaker 1: we started the conversation with the Build Back Better Bill 564 00:34:33,800 --> 00:34:36,799 Speaker 1: of allowing people to get investment tax credits to bring 565 00:34:37,000 --> 00:34:40,440 Speaker 1: new technology on that also incentivizes them to take American 566 00:34:40,480 --> 00:34:43,680 Speaker 1: may technology. You know, we're a company, the technology was 567 00:34:43,719 --> 00:34:47,400 Speaker 1: invented in the US. Of our suppliers are in the US, 568 00:34:47,440 --> 00:34:50,200 Speaker 1: are factories in the US, and allowing us to do 569 00:34:50,239 --> 00:34:52,680 Speaker 1: this is going to allow us to gain energy independence 570 00:34:52,760 --> 00:34:55,920 Speaker 1: as we look to more green and lower carbon solutions. 571 00:34:56,640 --> 00:35:00,359 Speaker 1: Talk to me more about that, are we honest ring 572 00:35:00,840 --> 00:35:07,400 Speaker 1: fasten us? Well? I think right now you have UM 573 00:35:07,520 --> 00:35:11,120 Speaker 1: you have a lot of companies like ours or other companies. 574 00:35:11,160 --> 00:35:13,080 Speaker 1: You know, EOS is not you know, I'd love to 575 00:35:13,120 --> 00:35:15,200 Speaker 1: tell you that we're going to be a solution. It's 576 00:35:15,239 --> 00:35:16,520 Speaker 1: gonna take a lot of us to be able to 577 00:35:16,560 --> 00:35:17,719 Speaker 1: do what we need to do because there's a lot 578 00:35:17,760 --> 00:35:19,879 Speaker 1: of different use cases. So there are other companies out 579 00:35:19,880 --> 00:35:24,080 Speaker 1: there that are behind us in their commercialization and industrialization 580 00:35:24,120 --> 00:35:27,080 Speaker 1: path that need to be that pushed to to be 581 00:35:27,120 --> 00:35:30,320 Speaker 1: able to to to grow into a full scale manufacturer. 582 00:35:30,360 --> 00:35:32,920 Speaker 1: I think of what we're doing now is going to 583 00:35:32,960 --> 00:35:35,840 Speaker 1: allow us to do that. The timing is right in 584 00:35:35,960 --> 00:35:40,280 Speaker 1: the market to get other technologies besides lithium ion into 585 00:35:40,400 --> 00:35:43,440 Speaker 1: the grid and allow us to to bring more renewables 586 00:35:43,480 --> 00:35:46,400 Speaker 1: on and and and shore up our supplying demount of power. 587 00:35:47,320 --> 00:35:51,439 Speaker 1: You've come on at a well, I guess, a very 588 00:35:51,560 --> 00:35:54,640 Speaker 1: volate time for your stock. It's shot up and then 589 00:35:54,719 --> 00:35:57,839 Speaker 1: came back down to levels we saw before your chief 590 00:35:57,840 --> 00:36:01,759 Speaker 1: executive officer, what's going on with the more Look, you know, 591 00:36:02,760 --> 00:36:06,640 Speaker 1: what we control is how we execute, how the orders 592 00:36:06,680 --> 00:36:08,440 Speaker 1: that we win, in the product that we deliver, and 593 00:36:08,480 --> 00:36:11,239 Speaker 1: that's what we're focused on every day. As you know, 594 00:36:11,320 --> 00:36:13,160 Speaker 1: there's a lot of other things that go on around 595 00:36:13,239 --> 00:36:15,520 Speaker 1: a stock price. But what we've said from the day 596 00:36:15,560 --> 00:36:18,960 Speaker 1: we've gone public is we just want to show people 597 00:36:19,000 --> 00:36:22,719 Speaker 1: that we're the company that executes and delivers and we're 598 00:36:22,719 --> 00:36:25,239 Speaker 1: going to continue to show that prove those proofpoints and 599 00:36:25,360 --> 00:36:28,319 Speaker 1: show people that we're great investment for the future in 600 00:36:28,360 --> 00:36:31,960 Speaker 1: a growing industry with a great technology, and now we 601 00:36:32,040 --> 00:36:34,040 Speaker 1: just have to show our ability to deliver, and that's 602 00:36:34,040 --> 00:36:36,040 Speaker 1: what we're that's what we're focused on right now. Adios 603 00:36:37,200 --> 00:36:39,160 Speaker 1: all right, Joe, thanks so much for joining us. Great 604 00:36:39,200 --> 00:36:41,879 Speaker 1: to hear a little bit more about your company and 605 00:36:42,000 --> 00:36:44,799 Speaker 1: your industry. Joe Master and Jello there, the CEO of 606 00:36:44,880 --> 00:36:51,640 Speaker 1: EOS Energy Enterprises. Thanks for listening to the Bloomberg Markets podcast. 607 00:36:52,040 --> 00:36:55,240 Speaker 1: You can subscribe and listen to interviews at Apple Podcasts 608 00:36:55,360 --> 00:36:59,279 Speaker 1: or whatever podcast platform you prefer. I'm Matt Miller. I'm 609 00:36:59,320 --> 00:37:02,759 Speaker 1: on Twitter at Matt Miller nineteen seventy three. And I'm 610 00:37:02,800 --> 00:37:05,880 Speaker 1: Fall Sweeney. I'm on Twitter at pt Sweeney. Before the podcast, 611 00:37:05,920 --> 00:37:08,399 Speaker 1: you can always catch us worldwide at Bloomberg Radio.