1 00:00:02,400 --> 00:00:03,560 Speaker 1: Also media. 2 00:00:05,240 --> 00:00:07,800 Speaker 2: Hello and welcome to Better Offline. I'm your host Ed Zichron, 3 00:00:19,640 --> 00:00:21,920 Speaker 2: and we are recording here in beautiful New York City, 4 00:00:22,079 --> 00:00:24,040 Speaker 2: and I have a wonderful pair of guests today. I have, 5 00:00:24,360 --> 00:00:28,520 Speaker 2: of course, Alison Morrow from CNN Nightcap Newsletter and Edward 6 00:00:28,600 --> 00:00:32,560 Speaker 2: Anguiso Junior, the hater himself from the Tech Bubble newsletter. 7 00:00:32,800 --> 00:00:34,400 Speaker 2: Thank you so much for joining me today. 8 00:00:34,880 --> 00:00:35,760 Speaker 3: Great to be here as all. 9 00:00:36,680 --> 00:00:38,839 Speaker 2: So I think we should start with exactly what we 10 00:00:38,840 --> 00:00:41,000 Speaker 2: were just talking about. The open AI claims that they 11 00:00:41,040 --> 00:00:44,000 Speaker 2: have worked out what causes hallucinations. Alison, do you want 12 00:00:44,000 --> 00:00:44,519 Speaker 2: to go over this? 13 00:00:45,640 --> 00:00:47,479 Speaker 3: I should have read the paper a bit more carefully, 14 00:00:47,520 --> 00:00:50,280 Speaker 3: but I can you know. The highlights were getting digested 15 00:00:50,479 --> 00:00:54,640 Speaker 3: yesterday on X and Blue Sky, and it seems like 16 00:00:55,200 --> 00:00:58,240 Speaker 3: it's kind of the test taking problem of when you 17 00:00:58,360 --> 00:01:01,440 Speaker 3: encourage students when they're taking anderdized tests and you don't 18 00:01:01,480 --> 00:01:04,200 Speaker 3: know the answer, you guess, And that's exactly how these 19 00:01:04,280 --> 00:01:07,360 Speaker 3: models are trained, and they don't. You don't get a 20 00:01:07,400 --> 00:01:10,279 Speaker 3: point if you say, I don't know, come up with something, 21 00:01:10,360 --> 00:01:16,560 Speaker 3: and the models are meant to keep guessing until they 22 00:01:16,560 --> 00:01:19,520 Speaker 3: get something close to right. Right, So that's why you 23 00:01:19,560 --> 00:01:24,839 Speaker 3: get a lot of nonsense and hallucinations and open AI 24 00:01:25,000 --> 00:01:27,399 Speaker 3: at least in their reading of it, says oh, this 25 00:01:27,480 --> 00:01:30,200 Speaker 3: is a simple solution. We'll just encourage the models to 26 00:01:30,560 --> 00:01:34,080 Speaker 3: understand better when it's like a binary question and when 27 00:01:34,319 --> 00:01:36,280 Speaker 3: you can say I don't know the answer to that, 28 00:01:36,760 --> 00:01:37,360 Speaker 3: so we'll see. 29 00:01:38,000 --> 00:01:40,759 Speaker 2: I read the paper, albeit not today because my brain 30 00:01:40,840 --> 00:01:43,440 Speaker 2: just immediately read it as marketing copy. Just put that, 31 00:01:43,680 --> 00:01:47,560 Speaker 2: replaced it with another anime theme song. I went through 32 00:01:47,600 --> 00:01:49,680 Speaker 2: it and I was like, okay, so it's going to 33 00:01:49,720 --> 00:01:52,400 Speaker 2: encourage them to say I don't know. This feels like 34 00:01:52,480 --> 00:01:54,920 Speaker 2: a very flat view of what hallucinations are, though, because 35 00:01:55,000 --> 00:01:58,600 Speaker 2: hallucinations as people know them authoritatively stating something that isn't true, 36 00:01:58,880 --> 00:02:02,040 Speaker 2: but hallucinations in life coding model are. It will just 37 00:02:02,040 --> 00:02:04,680 Speaker 2: say yeah, I did that when it didn't. This is 38 00:02:04,800 --> 00:02:06,680 Speaker 2: very common you going through the Cursor and the Claude 39 00:02:06,680 --> 00:02:09,360 Speaker 2: code forums, you can see this or subredits at least, 40 00:02:09,560 --> 00:02:12,400 Speaker 2: and it's not that they say something that's true. They 41 00:02:12,400 --> 00:02:15,919 Speaker 2: don't know that something's not true also, so they might 42 00:02:16,000 --> 00:02:19,239 Speaker 2: say they don't know, and it's just very silly because 43 00:02:20,000 --> 00:02:22,520 Speaker 2: they claim that they're going to fix this problem with 44 00:02:22,600 --> 00:02:25,359 Speaker 2: this solution, but they've done years and hundreds of millions 45 00:02:25,360 --> 00:02:28,440 Speaker 2: of dollars of reinforcement learning. Do they unreinforce do they 46 00:02:28,480 --> 00:02:33,040 Speaker 2: reinforce it? More so that I don't know. I'm fucking 47 00:02:33,080 --> 00:02:34,799 Speaker 2: tired of these companies are going to be completely honest. 48 00:02:34,800 --> 00:02:36,440 Speaker 2: I realized this is kind of cliche for the show, 49 00:02:36,480 --> 00:02:38,920 Speaker 2: but it's the fact that these things get written up 50 00:02:38,919 --> 00:02:41,320 Speaker 2: as very serious things. US is saying, you, guys still 51 00:02:41,320 --> 00:02:43,360 Speaker 2: haven't worked this out. It's kind of frustrating to me. 52 00:02:44,400 --> 00:02:46,720 Speaker 2: And they don't seem to be the models. Some getting 53 00:02:46,760 --> 00:02:49,120 Speaker 2: bad dimension returns and all that, but this is the 54 00:02:49,120 --> 00:02:49,960 Speaker 2: best they've got. 55 00:02:50,280 --> 00:02:54,400 Speaker 4: I mean, does this kind of thrust feel like, you know, 56 00:02:54,400 --> 00:02:56,400 Speaker 4: do you guys feel like it's a downstream of the 57 00:02:56,480 --> 00:02:59,000 Speaker 4: attempts by some of these firms to say, oh, actually, 58 00:02:59,000 --> 00:03:03,120 Speaker 4: like if we dialor bad the sick a fancy, you know, 59 00:03:03,280 --> 00:03:05,520 Speaker 4: then we'll be able to have a much more engaging 60 00:03:05,600 --> 00:03:08,800 Speaker 4: consumer product. We'll be able to have it hallucinate less, 61 00:03:09,280 --> 00:03:11,040 Speaker 4: you know, and do psychosis less. 62 00:03:11,480 --> 00:03:11,680 Speaker 2: You know. 63 00:03:11,880 --> 00:03:13,639 Speaker 4: But does it do they feel linked in that way? 64 00:03:13,720 --> 00:03:16,440 Speaker 4: Does it just feel like a they you know, another 65 00:03:16,639 --> 00:03:17,760 Speaker 4: maybe another dead end. 66 00:03:18,080 --> 00:03:20,080 Speaker 2: I feel like it's just them trying to work shit 67 00:03:20,160 --> 00:03:22,760 Speaker 2: out and trying to like this also feels like a 68 00:03:22,840 --> 00:03:26,079 Speaker 2: very rudimentary answer that they probably already had. It doesn't. 69 00:03:26,720 --> 00:03:28,880 Speaker 2: Anytime someone comes up with an idea that I can 70 00:03:28,919 --> 00:03:31,200 Speaker 2: that's technical, I'm like, okay, mate, you cannot be cooking 71 00:03:31,240 --> 00:03:33,760 Speaker 2: with gas. This is this cannot be that good an idea. 72 00:03:33,800 --> 00:03:35,640 Speaker 2: And the thing is the sick of fancy problem I 73 00:03:35,640 --> 00:03:38,520 Speaker 2: don't think is solvable through solving hallucinations. The problem is 74 00:03:38,680 --> 00:03:41,880 Speaker 2: it should stop. It needs to just It should not 75 00:03:41,920 --> 00:03:44,440 Speaker 2: say I don't understand, it should say no. Actually, you 76 00:03:44,520 --> 00:03:46,680 Speaker 2: sound like you think I'm God King and that you 77 00:03:46,720 --> 00:03:48,480 Speaker 2: are God King, and that as God kings together we 78 00:03:48,480 --> 00:03:50,440 Speaker 2: will destroy the world. Yeah. I mean, I mean my 79 00:03:50,560 --> 00:03:51,200 Speaker 2: case is true. 80 00:03:51,280 --> 00:03:54,160 Speaker 4: But do you think like the emphasis or the attempt 81 00:03:54,200 --> 00:03:56,440 Speaker 4: to overcorrect on that is leading them to go down 82 00:03:56,440 --> 00:03:58,640 Speaker 4: solutions where they think, oh, like if we just like 83 00:03:58,760 --> 00:03:59,600 Speaker 4: this and that, then we. 84 00:03:59,800 --> 00:04:02,880 Speaker 2: Yeah, yes, yes, actually I think that that's right because 85 00:04:02,880 --> 00:04:04,360 Speaker 2: they have the I don't know if you saw the 86 00:04:04,400 --> 00:04:07,640 Speaker 2: Attorney general. Attorney's general from Delaware and California sent a 87 00:04:07,720 --> 00:04:11,000 Speaker 2: letter to open AI last week saying, hey, look, if 88 00:04:11,040 --> 00:04:13,520 Speaker 2: you need to fix these safety protocols, you need to 89 00:04:13,520 --> 00:04:15,440 Speaker 2: actually have them, because what you have right now doesn't work, 90 00:04:15,440 --> 00:04:18,400 Speaker 2: and we will block your nonprofit otherwise. I was really 91 00:04:18,440 --> 00:04:20,240 Speaker 2: happy to read that right up until the bit they 92 00:04:20,279 --> 00:04:23,480 Speaker 2: say we wish you well with your quest for AI dominance. 93 00:04:23,520 --> 00:04:26,680 Speaker 2: I'm just like, these are the fucking people protecting us 94 00:04:26,720 --> 00:04:28,800 Speaker 2: from the They're like, no, it's great, you want to 95 00:04:28,839 --> 00:04:32,359 Speaker 2: dominate everyone with AI. It's just you drove some people 96 00:04:32,400 --> 00:04:34,000 Speaker 2: to a murder suicide situation. 97 00:04:34,120 --> 00:04:36,880 Speaker 3: And wasn't that part of the problem with GPT five 98 00:04:36,960 --> 00:04:39,279 Speaker 3: as they tried to dial back the SICKA fancy and 99 00:04:39,320 --> 00:04:43,160 Speaker 3: then it took away the character and like the humanness 100 00:04:43,160 --> 00:04:46,240 Speaker 3: that people had gotten attached to in GPT four, yeah, 101 00:04:46,279 --> 00:04:49,280 Speaker 3: in earlier models, and like it all seems to come 102 00:04:49,320 --> 00:04:52,440 Speaker 3: back to open. AI doesn't realize that what it's selling 103 00:04:53,040 --> 00:04:57,600 Speaker 3: often is like a companion and a therapist, and it doesn't. 104 00:04:57,720 --> 00:05:00,000 Speaker 3: It reminds me of like Q tips. You're not supposed 105 00:05:00,040 --> 00:05:02,240 Speaker 3: but them in your ear right, but that's all anyone 106 00:05:02,320 --> 00:05:03,080 Speaker 3: uses qtubes. 107 00:05:03,360 --> 00:05:06,160 Speaker 2: I was gonna say they're not meant to do, of. 108 00:05:06,120 --> 00:05:09,359 Speaker 3: Course not, but like that's the consumer, that's how the 109 00:05:09,400 --> 00:05:13,440 Speaker 3: consumer has chosen to use this product. And they're saying like, well, 110 00:05:13,480 --> 00:05:15,680 Speaker 3: we don't condone that, we don't think it's like the 111 00:05:15,720 --> 00:05:18,240 Speaker 3: best use of our product, and you know, we know 112 00:05:18,320 --> 00:05:20,359 Speaker 3: better than the than the consumer, of course. 113 00:05:20,480 --> 00:05:22,760 Speaker 2: I actually I think it's one abstraction high, which is 114 00:05:22,800 --> 00:05:25,360 Speaker 2: I don't think they know what chat GPT is. I don't. 115 00:05:25,480 --> 00:05:28,800 Speaker 2: I did AI boaster piece came out last week, but 116 00:05:28,920 --> 00:05:30,880 Speaker 2: it was I had this whole thing where it was. 117 00:05:31,360 --> 00:05:33,840 Speaker 2: It's so they don't describe what chat GPT does. If 118 00:05:33,839 --> 00:05:36,200 Speaker 2: you're on the website, like it's like, yeah, analyzes data 119 00:05:36,240 --> 00:05:40,520 Speaker 2: and it's it's brainstorming and charts and stuff. The agent 120 00:05:40,560 --> 00:05:44,200 Speaker 2: does things too, Please buy it and then you try 121 00:05:44,200 --> 00:05:46,680 Speaker 2: and like actually look for any use cases and there's nothing. 122 00:05:46,760 --> 00:05:48,840 Speaker 2: I think that they're just guessing. But my favorite thing 123 00:05:48,839 --> 00:05:51,560 Speaker 2: I'm seeing, my favorite thing is that now people are 124 00:05:51,600 --> 00:05:54,560 Speaker 2: like GPT four h isn't the same because they brought 125 00:05:54,560 --> 00:05:57,159 Speaker 2: it back and now people are just freaking out. People like, no, 126 00:05:57,240 --> 00:06:00,359 Speaker 2: it's not the same, it's different. Somehow it's on I 127 00:06:00,360 --> 00:06:02,359 Speaker 2: honestly don't know if it's true. I just think that 128 00:06:02,400 --> 00:06:04,760 Speaker 2: they've entered gamer mode. This is just what. This is 129 00:06:04,760 --> 00:06:06,880 Speaker 2: how gamers react. It's like the gun isn't the same, 130 00:06:06,920 --> 00:06:10,040 Speaker 2: it's literally the same code. No, you've changed something, You've 131 00:06:10,360 --> 00:06:13,200 Speaker 2: I know, and it's what happens when you release an 132 00:06:13,240 --> 00:06:18,080 Speaker 2: imprecise glazing bot onto the world. It's also really funny 133 00:06:18,120 --> 00:06:20,839 Speaker 2: how literally any of these companies could have been open AI. 134 00:06:21,040 --> 00:06:23,200 Speaker 2: There doesn't seem to be anything special about this company 135 00:06:23,200 --> 00:06:24,880 Speaker 2: at all anymore or ever. 136 00:06:24,800 --> 00:06:27,720 Speaker 4: Well you know, I mean, not everybody can lose as 137 00:06:27,800 --> 00:06:32,360 Speaker 4: much money that feels a very special or have the 138 00:06:32,400 --> 00:06:33,840 Speaker 4: connection to you. 139 00:06:34,200 --> 00:06:36,280 Speaker 2: Oh my god. What I haven't heard from Maco's son 140 00:06:36,279 --> 00:06:39,480 Speaker 2: in the minute. We haven't had an announcement of tomorrow 141 00:06:39,640 --> 00:06:42,320 Speaker 2: or tomorrow is gonna be? I like that he bought 142 00:06:42,360 --> 00:06:45,039 Speaker 2: a he bought a Fox count Lab, an old Fox 143 00:06:45,080 --> 00:06:48,480 Speaker 2: con lab too turned into an AI server building place 144 00:06:48,520 --> 00:06:51,599 Speaker 2: in like Ohio. I think it is. It's like, mate, 145 00:06:51,839 --> 00:06:54,839 Speaker 2: what are you doing? Man? Are you okay? Someone needs 146 00:06:54,880 --> 00:06:57,279 Speaker 2: to check in on mass We need to hold space 147 00:06:57,320 --> 00:06:58,640 Speaker 2: for Masso Shei's son. 148 00:06:58,839 --> 00:06:59,560 Speaker 4: Yeah, bring them on. 149 00:07:00,640 --> 00:07:03,640 Speaker 2: I have asked him. I have genuinely emailed soft Banks 150 00:07:03,680 --> 00:07:07,520 Speaker 2: PR and I've emailed Anthropics PR for Dario and han't 151 00:07:07,560 --> 00:07:09,680 Speaker 2: heard back from either. I assume there's an email issue 152 00:07:10,000 --> 00:07:12,760 Speaker 2: because there's no other reason they wouldn't come on this show. 153 00:07:13,400 --> 00:07:16,640 Speaker 2: It's just it now. I what's fun to watch though 154 00:07:16,680 --> 00:07:18,920 Speaker 2: is considering how many times we've had like AI bubble 155 00:07:18,960 --> 00:07:22,040 Speaker 2: conversations on here, everyone seems to be kind of waking 156 00:07:22,120 --> 00:07:24,559 Speaker 2: up to it. It's kind of fun. Must be clear, 157 00:07:25,400 --> 00:07:28,280 Speaker 2: everyone here was early on this. I was new, actually 158 00:07:28,400 --> 00:07:30,680 Speaker 2: very early. You've been early on every day as early 159 00:07:30,680 --> 00:07:32,920 Speaker 2: as you No, I give you credit. You're one of 160 00:07:33,000 --> 00:07:35,360 Speaker 2: like the three people who, when the metaverse was happening, 161 00:07:36,080 --> 00:07:38,680 Speaker 2: was actually calling it out. So it's good. It's good 162 00:07:38,680 --> 00:07:41,920 Speaker 2: to see in here, but also insane that it's still going. 163 00:07:42,160 --> 00:07:44,320 Speaker 2: That's what I don't like. This open a one hundred 164 00:07:44,320 --> 00:07:47,280 Speaker 2: and fifteen billion spurned within by twenty twenty eight, I 165 00:07:47,280 --> 00:07:50,320 Speaker 2: think it is. I don't understand how people keep publishing 166 00:07:50,360 --> 00:07:52,200 Speaker 2: this and being like and that will happen. 167 00:07:52,360 --> 00:07:54,760 Speaker 3: I will say, to my relief, the metaverse went away 168 00:07:54,880 --> 00:07:57,640 Speaker 3: quickly because when it first was announced and I wrote 169 00:07:57,640 --> 00:07:59,280 Speaker 3: a piece just being like what. 170 00:07:59,600 --> 00:08:00,760 Speaker 2: Yeah, what is what? 171 00:08:01,840 --> 00:08:04,440 Speaker 3: And then like everything about it seemed really dumb in 172 00:08:04,480 --> 00:08:07,679 Speaker 3: every iteration coming after, and so I was like, oh, okay, 173 00:08:07,920 --> 00:08:10,400 Speaker 3: I wasn't crazy, but with AI and I know you 174 00:08:10,400 --> 00:08:14,600 Speaker 3: can relate to this, I feel crazy because the lack 175 00:08:14,680 --> 00:08:18,000 Speaker 3: of utility is still there and like the absurdity of 176 00:08:18,040 --> 00:08:22,200 Speaker 3: the investment is still there, and it does seem like that. 177 00:08:22,200 --> 00:08:24,160 Speaker 3: That's why I wrote about the vibe shitt like it 178 00:08:24,240 --> 00:08:27,360 Speaker 3: has been like going in Edzitron's favor in the last 179 00:08:27,360 --> 00:08:27,960 Speaker 3: few weeks. 180 00:08:28,560 --> 00:08:32,120 Speaker 2: Fucking vindication finally. But it's it's funny as well because 181 00:08:32,280 --> 00:08:36,079 Speaker 2: even with them, this open Ai story comes out and 182 00:08:36,120 --> 00:08:37,800 Speaker 2: people are still like, yeah, they're gonna burn one hundred 183 00:08:37,800 --> 00:08:41,000 Speaker 2: and fifteen billion dollars. People reported about a month ago 184 00:08:41,040 --> 00:08:43,280 Speaker 2: that they're going to spend thirty billion dollars a year 185 00:08:43,280 --> 00:08:48,480 Speaker 2: on Oracles starting twenty twenty eight. How how how? I 186 00:08:48,640 --> 00:08:51,600 Speaker 2: just That's what I don't understand. How these articles keep 187 00:08:51,600 --> 00:08:53,560 Speaker 2: coming out. And I understand that reporters have to report 188 00:08:53,760 --> 00:08:55,839 Speaker 2: the news and things they have discovered. I get it, 189 00:08:56,000 --> 00:08:57,600 Speaker 2: But can no one just be like and no one 190 00:08:57,679 --> 00:08:59,839 Speaker 2: has any idea where this money's coming from. No one, 191 00:09:00,240 --> 00:09:04,640 Speaker 2: thirty billion dollars a fucking year from Oracle for service 192 00:09:04,679 --> 00:09:06,200 Speaker 2: that are yet to be built, and all of this. 193 00:09:06,400 --> 00:09:08,240 Speaker 2: They don't need to worry about the fact that the 194 00:09:08,280 --> 00:09:11,079 Speaker 2: servers aren't actually built. In Applene Texas is not finished, 195 00:09:11,080 --> 00:09:13,760 Speaker 2: and the money doesn't exist, and it isn't obvious how 196 00:09:13,840 --> 00:09:16,040 Speaker 2: Oracle affords it they will have to take on debt 197 00:09:16,080 --> 00:09:19,120 Speaker 2: to build this, and Crusoe and primary digital Infrastructure have 198 00:09:19,160 --> 00:09:21,520 Speaker 2: already done that. And I mean, other than that, it 199 00:09:21,559 --> 00:09:24,439 Speaker 2: could happen any day. I just wonder if the media 200 00:09:24,559 --> 00:09:26,319 Speaker 2: is actually not prepared for this. And I don't mean 201 00:09:26,320 --> 00:09:29,400 Speaker 2: in a conspiratle way, I mean just in a is 202 00:09:29,440 --> 00:09:32,760 Speaker 2: the media actually set up for companies just lying or 203 00:09:32,880 --> 00:09:34,200 Speaker 2: just projecting. 204 00:09:34,559 --> 00:09:37,880 Speaker 4: I mean, I feel like it reminds me of kind 205 00:09:37,880 --> 00:09:40,480 Speaker 4: of the relationship that maybe our critics or you know, 206 00:09:40,559 --> 00:09:43,520 Speaker 4: our coverage might have for the medium, where there's not 207 00:09:43,600 --> 00:09:49,240 Speaker 4: an inherent antagonism or skepticism of claims that are being offered, 208 00:09:49,920 --> 00:09:54,320 Speaker 4: an assumption of good faith that continually gets betrayed or 209 00:09:54,400 --> 00:09:57,400 Speaker 4: you know, punished, but gets carried on with over and 210 00:09:57,440 --> 00:10:00,520 Speaker 4: over and over again. I feel like the AI bubble 211 00:10:01,360 --> 00:10:03,880 Speaker 4: discussions that we're seeing. Part of me also feels like 212 00:10:04,080 --> 00:10:06,720 Speaker 4: they are going to disappear the second we start to 213 00:10:06,800 --> 00:10:10,439 Speaker 4: see some of the firms maybe announce some favorable metrics, 214 00:10:10,480 --> 00:10:13,319 Speaker 4: even though, as we've been talking about for a long time, right, 215 00:10:13,360 --> 00:10:16,080 Speaker 4: revenues are not there, profits are not there now, the 216 00:10:16,120 --> 00:10:20,920 Speaker 4: burn is only increasing, right, and there's no way forward 217 00:10:22,000 --> 00:10:23,880 Speaker 4: in the short term. Right, you know that I can 218 00:10:23,920 --> 00:10:26,640 Speaker 4: think of where these companies start to actually do the 219 00:10:26,640 --> 00:10:28,120 Speaker 4: things that they're claiming they're going to be doing with 220 00:10:28,240 --> 00:10:31,440 Speaker 4: transforming the world. But I can see a scenario where 221 00:10:31,679 --> 00:10:34,360 Speaker 4: you know, someone has a favorable quarter for adoption even 222 00:10:34,400 --> 00:10:37,000 Speaker 4: though you know, we just I just saw yesterday Apollo 223 00:10:37,040 --> 00:10:40,640 Speaker 4: Global Management was talking about large firms are actually scaling 224 00:10:40,679 --> 00:10:45,000 Speaker 4: back AI adoption, which already wasn't even providing returns and 225 00:10:45,080 --> 00:10:46,800 Speaker 4: was hurting productivity in the first place. 226 00:10:46,880 --> 00:10:47,080 Speaker 1: Right. 227 00:10:47,160 --> 00:10:49,440 Speaker 2: It's and it's really weird as well, because there was 228 00:10:49,440 --> 00:10:52,040 Speaker 2: the MIT study where it's like they said, ninety five 229 00:10:52,080 --> 00:10:55,480 Speaker 2: percent of generative AI integrations don't have any return on investment. 230 00:10:55,640 --> 00:10:58,360 Speaker 2: There are some people critiquing that number, but something that 231 00:10:58,360 --> 00:10:59,840 Speaker 2: comes out of that study that I really like was 232 00:10:59,880 --> 00:11:03,120 Speaker 2: it was saying that enterprise adoption is high, but the 233 00:11:03,160 --> 00:11:06,480 Speaker 2: actual transformation is low because this shit doesn't work. And 234 00:11:06,600 --> 00:11:10,400 Speaker 2: it's it's so strange, and I think that the only 235 00:11:10,480 --> 00:11:13,080 Speaker 2: reason that things won't immediately unrebel with a good quarter 236 00:11:13,240 --> 00:11:16,559 Speaker 2: is because the media has chosen to follow a direction. 237 00:11:16,679 --> 00:11:20,120 Speaker 2: Now you've got the when you've got the Atlantic, the 238 00:11:20,200 --> 00:11:23,839 Speaker 2: goddamn Atlantic publishing a story saying yeah, it turns out 239 00:11:23,880 --> 00:11:26,080 Speaker 2: that AI isn't really doing much, but it's holding up 240 00:11:26,120 --> 00:11:29,480 Speaker 2: our economy. It's like, holy shit, the Atlantic's willing to 241 00:11:29,480 --> 00:11:32,760 Speaker 2: admit something that happened happened. I didn't even know this 242 00:11:32,880 --> 00:11:35,640 Speaker 2: was in there. I thought that they just wrote up 243 00:11:35,640 --> 00:11:37,559 Speaker 2: whatever was email to them by and dohold. 244 00:11:37,320 --> 00:11:39,080 Speaker 4: Your bread, they just published Mike Solana. 245 00:11:40,200 --> 00:11:43,520 Speaker 2: Yeah, actually I retract all my statements to But it's 246 00:11:43,760 --> 00:11:45,800 Speaker 2: I think with the media. 247 00:11:46,120 --> 00:11:49,720 Speaker 3: I see it in political reporting and business reporting in tech. 248 00:11:50,559 --> 00:11:55,640 Speaker 3: There's a deference to authority that I think American media, 249 00:11:55,720 --> 00:11:59,800 Speaker 3: but all media, have an issue with. And I think 250 00:11:59,840 --> 00:12:02,880 Speaker 3: that sort of speaks to the underlying economics of being 251 00:12:02,960 --> 00:12:06,840 Speaker 3: in media right now, where there's a general chill both 252 00:12:06,880 --> 00:12:12,240 Speaker 3: economically and politically. Reporters are worried about their bylines being 253 00:12:12,320 --> 00:12:14,679 Speaker 3: out there and getting stuff wrong. And I'm not saying 254 00:12:14,679 --> 00:12:16,640 Speaker 3: that that's an excuse, but I do think that is 255 00:12:16,679 --> 00:12:20,319 Speaker 3: an institutional mindset that has taken route, especially in the 256 00:12:20,400 --> 00:12:23,200 Speaker 3: last ten years, that's just become like really hard to 257 00:12:23,200 --> 00:12:26,400 Speaker 3: be a journalist and to do it right. But you 258 00:12:26,520 --> 00:12:29,199 Speaker 3: are starting to see that MIT report was so important 259 00:12:29,200 --> 00:12:34,040 Speaker 3: because it caused people on Wall Street authority figures to 260 00:12:34,480 --> 00:12:37,439 Speaker 3: say hmm, I don't know about this, And then that 261 00:12:37,480 --> 00:12:41,040 Speaker 3: got a lot of mainstream financial media to kind of 262 00:12:41,080 --> 00:12:44,680 Speaker 3: like do that questioning headline about AI that they maybe 263 00:12:44,720 --> 00:12:46,160 Speaker 3: wouldn't have done six months ago. 264 00:12:46,440 --> 00:12:48,440 Speaker 2: I do like that there's a rumor about the next 265 00:12:48,440 --> 00:12:52,080 Speaker 2: deep Seek model doing agents. They're not going to, but 266 00:12:52,200 --> 00:12:54,120 Speaker 2: even just like if that comes out and they even 267 00:12:54,120 --> 00:12:56,080 Speaker 2: claim they can, I think that might have a market 268 00:12:56,080 --> 00:12:58,439 Speaker 2: panic just because they'll be like, ah, China, I. 269 00:12:58,360 --> 00:13:00,800 Speaker 4: Mean yeah, I mean that's I. I actually think there's 270 00:13:00,840 --> 00:13:03,000 Speaker 4: something to that, right, because you know, we did agents here, 271 00:13:03,360 --> 00:13:06,760 Speaker 4: didn't do shed for sales powers really the market did 272 00:13:06,760 --> 00:13:07,439 Speaker 4: the market even? 273 00:13:07,480 --> 00:13:11,920 Speaker 2: Really? Actually and a wonderful story from this information open 274 00:13:11,960 --> 00:13:15,559 Speaker 2: AI in their in their whole projections through twenty twenty nine, 275 00:13:15,559 --> 00:13:17,600 Speaker 2: they've reduced the amount of money of the micromagents by 276 00:13:17,600 --> 00:13:23,880 Speaker 2: twenty six billion dollars. Why I want anyway? So, but yeah, 277 00:13:23,920 --> 00:13:27,200 Speaker 2: it's like that this deep Seek thing could inspire people 278 00:13:27,240 --> 00:13:30,319 Speaker 2: to get scared horribly because no one actually believes that 279 00:13:30,360 --> 00:13:33,400 Speaker 2: agents exist. Looks they don't, but they think they do, 280 00:13:33,440 --> 00:13:36,120 Speaker 2: but they will, but they won't. It's this I don't 281 00:13:36,120 --> 00:13:38,240 Speaker 2: think I've ever actually seen anything like this in tech. 282 00:13:38,240 --> 00:13:40,760 Speaker 2: I'm gonna be honest, it's worse than crypto, even worse 283 00:13:40,800 --> 00:13:42,720 Speaker 2: than just the general generative AI. I think is this 284 00:13:42,800 --> 00:13:45,719 Speaker 2: concept of agents though, because I saw some fucking thing 285 00:13:45,800 --> 00:13:49,440 Speaker 2: about some one political blog saying that Donald Trump would 286 00:13:49,440 --> 00:13:52,080 Speaker 2: do some sort of act he would do the I 287 00:13:52,120 --> 00:13:53,840 Speaker 2: forget the exact thing, but it would be an act 288 00:13:53,880 --> 00:13:57,839 Speaker 2: that would make AI copyright holders just handshit over to 289 00:13:57,880 --> 00:14:00,800 Speaker 2: AI due to us needing to beat China. And it 290 00:14:00,880 --> 00:14:04,119 Speaker 2: mentioned with you know, like, yeah, the growing agency capabilities 291 00:14:04,160 --> 00:14:06,280 Speaker 2: of AI. It's just what the fuck is that. I've 292 00:14:06,280 --> 00:14:08,199 Speaker 2: never seen a tech thing in my life now that 293 00:14:08,320 --> 00:14:10,600 Speaker 2: has not existed like this, and people talk about it 294 00:14:10,640 --> 00:14:11,200 Speaker 2: like it's real. 295 00:14:11,760 --> 00:14:14,280 Speaker 4: And I think also it's interesting to see the more 296 00:14:14,440 --> 00:14:18,080 Speaker 4: it doesn't manifest, the more some of the recommendations to 297 00:14:18,160 --> 00:14:21,360 Speaker 4: make them happen just sound more and more like these 298 00:14:21,360 --> 00:14:24,440 Speaker 4: are also things that might somehow bend the cost curve 299 00:14:24,440 --> 00:14:27,560 Speaker 4: in our direction. Maybe we should make the Internet unusable 300 00:14:27,600 --> 00:14:30,360 Speaker 4: to anything other than some of these programs. Yeah right, 301 00:14:30,840 --> 00:14:35,160 Speaker 4: And you know, I'm curious which one is going to 302 00:14:35,240 --> 00:14:38,640 Speaker 4: give out first, Like the really savvy ability a lot 303 00:14:38,640 --> 00:14:43,040 Speaker 4: of these firms have had in spinning, sputtering or you know, 304 00:14:43,320 --> 00:14:47,920 Speaker 4: spinning you know, a crisis that might drain the markets 305 00:14:48,000 --> 00:14:50,560 Speaker 4: or deter investors and to oh, actually we just need 306 00:14:50,600 --> 00:14:53,320 Speaker 4: even more capital, similar to what they did with deep Seek. 307 00:14:53,640 --> 00:14:57,120 Speaker 4: The solution is even more compute intensive models. You know, 308 00:14:57,160 --> 00:14:58,880 Speaker 4: whether they're going to be able to do that faster 309 00:14:59,000 --> 00:15:02,120 Speaker 4: than people wising up and saying, you know, maybe we 310 00:15:02,160 --> 00:15:05,960 Speaker 4: shouldn't misallocate trillions of dollars a capital over the next 311 00:15:05,960 --> 00:15:06,840 Speaker 4: few years towards this. 312 00:15:07,000 --> 00:15:09,880 Speaker 2: But this is the thing, though, I don't think there's 313 00:15:09,920 --> 00:15:13,400 Speaker 2: anything stopping this, because the suggested thing was the okay, 314 00:15:13,440 --> 00:15:16,040 Speaker 2: so all of these modial companies can steal from everyone, 315 00:15:16,160 --> 00:15:18,880 Speaker 2: which is what happened already even with this anthropic settlement. 316 00:15:18,960 --> 00:15:21,400 Speaker 2: It's not it's great people are getting three thousand dollars. 317 00:15:21,440 --> 00:15:22,880 Speaker 2: I love that, but. 318 00:15:22,680 --> 00:15:24,840 Speaker 4: It's also what the companies are offering that's similar to 319 00:15:24,840 --> 00:15:27,600 Speaker 4: what the your payout would have been if you said, yeah, right, 320 00:15:28,640 --> 00:15:31,040 Speaker 4: I didn't know that. I think like some publishers were offering, 321 00:15:31,360 --> 00:15:33,800 Speaker 4: or you know, trying to ask authors, Hey, if we 322 00:15:33,880 --> 00:15:36,440 Speaker 4: pay you this, would you allow your book to be 323 00:15:36,520 --> 00:15:39,320 Speaker 4: trained on would you allow us, you know, be put 324 00:15:39,360 --> 00:15:42,640 Speaker 4: into a data set. The payment that you're getting from 325 00:15:42,640 --> 00:15:45,120 Speaker 4: the settlement feels or reminds me of the amount of 326 00:15:45,120 --> 00:15:50,720 Speaker 4: money that people are being offered and those sorts of deals. 327 00:15:58,600 --> 00:16:02,480 Speaker 2: I think the thing is, Okay, they already steal everything. Well, okay, 328 00:16:02,520 --> 00:16:04,120 Speaker 2: we need to give them as much money as possible. 329 00:16:04,120 --> 00:16:06,320 Speaker 2: We've already done that. Are we just going to do 330 00:16:06,360 --> 00:16:08,120 Speaker 2: this forever? Because even if we do this for rever, 331 00:16:08,200 --> 00:16:11,040 Speaker 2: nothing's going to change, even if I'm completely wrong and 332 00:16:11,120 --> 00:16:15,360 Speaker 2: open ai keeps going another five years. Okay, so we're 333 00:16:15,400 --> 00:16:17,400 Speaker 2: just going to annihilate one hundred and fifteen billion dollars. 334 00:16:17,560 --> 00:16:19,840 Speaker 2: There is no there are no more things here like 335 00:16:20,320 --> 00:16:24,480 Speaker 2: they're projections open ays projections from the information their chart. 336 00:16:24,520 --> 00:16:26,200 Speaker 2: I don't even need to show you this because this 337 00:16:26,360 --> 00:16:29,680 Speaker 2: is just fan fiction at this point. There is in 338 00:16:29,720 --> 00:16:32,120 Speaker 2: twenty twenty six starting there is this growth of this 339 00:16:32,200 --> 00:16:36,560 Speaker 2: orange thing that is other revenue. Who knows what it is? 340 00:16:37,200 --> 00:16:39,360 Speaker 2: I don't know. Open Ai doesn't seem to And that's 341 00:16:39,360 --> 00:16:41,200 Speaker 2: really important because they're going to make what looks like 342 00:16:41,280 --> 00:16:45,480 Speaker 2: several billion dollars from this next year. What the fuck 343 00:16:45,600 --> 00:16:48,280 Speaker 2: is going Every time I look at this company, I 344 00:16:48,280 --> 00:16:50,520 Speaker 2: feel a little more insane because they've now lowered their 345 00:16:50,560 --> 00:16:53,600 Speaker 2: expectations of selling their access to their models by five 346 00:16:53,600 --> 00:16:56,240 Speaker 2: billion dollars over the next few years. What even is 347 00:16:56,280 --> 00:16:58,720 Speaker 2: open ai at this point? Is it just a wrap? 348 00:16:58,760 --> 00:17:01,600 Speaker 2: Have they become a wrapper company of their own models? 349 00:17:01,880 --> 00:17:05,359 Speaker 2: They're no better than Cursor. It's just it's so weird, 350 00:17:05,480 --> 00:17:07,359 Speaker 2: and I realize them kind of going in circles at 351 00:17:07,359 --> 00:17:12,520 Speaker 2: this point, but it's I even the metaverse, even Crypto, 352 00:17:12,760 --> 00:17:15,800 Speaker 2: even Crypto functioned. It was bad. It's still bad. It 353 00:17:15,880 --> 00:17:19,000 Speaker 2: is bad cloud software, but it still did the thing. Hey, 354 00:17:19,040 --> 00:17:22,480 Speaker 2: I doesn't even seem to be doing it, and they 355 00:17:22,480 --> 00:17:24,480 Speaker 2: need more money to prove that it can't do it. 356 00:17:24,520 --> 00:17:27,200 Speaker 2: And actually they don't have enough right now, but they're 357 00:17:27,240 --> 00:17:30,160 Speaker 2: going to need even more. I don't even know how 358 00:17:30,200 --> 00:17:32,440 Speaker 2: people are still taking this seriously because on top of that, 359 00:17:32,840 --> 00:17:36,879 Speaker 2: did you hear about the Microsoft negotiations over the nonprofit. 360 00:17:36,800 --> 00:17:37,520 Speaker 4: I've been hearing. 361 00:17:37,760 --> 00:17:41,199 Speaker 2: Well, they're delaying it to next year. They have to. 362 00:17:41,320 --> 00:17:42,760 Speaker 2: They need to convert by the end of the year 363 00:17:42,760 --> 00:17:45,480 Speaker 2: otherwise SoftBank comes their round in half. And everyone's just like, yeah, 364 00:17:45,480 --> 00:17:48,199 Speaker 2: I'll be fine, mate, it'll work it out. What the 365 00:17:48,240 --> 00:17:50,919 Speaker 2: fuck have you have either of you ever? I know 366 00:17:51,240 --> 00:17:53,400 Speaker 2: ed you covered Uber a lot. I don't even think 367 00:17:53,400 --> 00:17:55,000 Speaker 2: the economics match with that either. 368 00:17:55,200 --> 00:17:58,400 Speaker 4: No. I mean, you know, it's interesting because I think 369 00:17:59,480 --> 00:18:05,119 Speaker 4: Uber's strategy, central strategy from the beginning was, you know, 370 00:18:05,160 --> 00:18:08,040 Speaker 4: we have a few existing playbooks that we need to reference, 371 00:18:08,400 --> 00:18:12,199 Speaker 4: you know, the coke deregulation of the taxi industry in 372 00:18:12,280 --> 00:18:16,960 Speaker 4: the nineties, as well as Regula deregulatory campaigns that they led, 373 00:18:18,440 --> 00:18:22,440 Speaker 4: you know, in Seattle and historic campaigns in San Francisco. 374 00:18:22,960 --> 00:18:26,399 Speaker 4: There's a lot that we can reference. And if we 375 00:18:26,440 --> 00:18:30,480 Speaker 4: can figure out a way to bootstrap ourselves onto the 376 00:18:30,520 --> 00:18:36,400 Speaker 4: model and onto those previous histories of deregulation while delaying 377 00:18:36,680 --> 00:18:39,920 Speaker 4: scrutiny long enough our economics to actually, you know, get 378 00:18:39,960 --> 00:18:41,639 Speaker 4: to a profitable place, we'll get there, which is what 379 00:18:41,680 --> 00:18:44,480 Speaker 4: they did right. But even then, I mean, I feel 380 00:18:44,560 --> 00:18:47,280 Speaker 4: like from the beginning, as much as I hated a 381 00:18:47,320 --> 00:18:50,000 Speaker 4: lot of the coverage of Uber for years, the people 382 00:18:50,000 --> 00:18:53,199 Speaker 4: who were always correct about it, We're like the labor 383 00:18:53,920 --> 00:18:56,200 Speaker 4: reporters who had actually, you know, if you spend time 384 00:18:56,200 --> 00:18:58,480 Speaker 4: talking to the drivers, that will lead you to be 385 00:18:58,520 --> 00:19:00,600 Speaker 4: a little bit more interested in the you know, what 386 00:19:00,760 --> 00:19:04,399 Speaker 4: can justify the suffering behind this, and then you almost 387 00:19:04,440 --> 00:19:08,440 Speaker 4: always will see that there's no act. At that point, 388 00:19:08,480 --> 00:19:10,520 Speaker 4: there were no way the unit economics worked unless you 389 00:19:10,520 --> 00:19:11,320 Speaker 4: subsidize everything. 390 00:19:11,400 --> 00:19:11,560 Speaker 1: Yeah. 391 00:19:11,560 --> 00:19:11,960 Speaker 2: I feel like. 392 00:19:11,960 --> 00:19:14,960 Speaker 4: Similarly, there's something going on with with artificial intelligence firms 393 00:19:14,960 --> 00:19:19,080 Speaker 4: and the global AI value chain where if you start 394 00:19:19,160 --> 00:19:22,080 Speaker 4: with a labor analysis and you look at you know, 395 00:19:22,119 --> 00:19:25,359 Speaker 4: invisible workers or ghost workers that are integitical. 396 00:19:24,920 --> 00:19:27,520 Speaker 2: The Kenyan people training the models m M yeah. 397 00:19:27,440 --> 00:19:30,720 Speaker 4: Or labeling or you know, an any any laborer that's 398 00:19:30,840 --> 00:19:33,639 Speaker 4: out of sight, out of mind. You know, then the 399 00:19:34,080 --> 00:19:36,520 Speaker 4: you know, starting there and going up, it becomes hard 400 00:19:36,560 --> 00:19:40,239 Speaker 4: to ask, Okay, how are we supposed to allocate all 401 00:19:40,280 --> 00:19:44,040 Speaker 4: this capital towards a model that, as is right now 402 00:19:44,280 --> 00:19:46,200 Speaker 4: is cutting all these corners for costs and it's still 403 00:19:46,240 --> 00:19:48,399 Speaker 4: burning tens and tens and tens of billions of dollars 404 00:19:48,400 --> 00:19:50,040 Speaker 4: and it's asking for trillions of dollars more. 405 00:19:51,880 --> 00:19:52,439 Speaker 2: But I don't know. 406 00:19:52,480 --> 00:19:54,600 Speaker 4: I mean, part of my fear is that they are 407 00:19:54,640 --> 00:19:57,199 Speaker 4: successful in the way that Uber was, where if you 408 00:19:57,240 --> 00:20:00,520 Speaker 4: get enough buy in from military industrial comp well, you know, 409 00:20:00,600 --> 00:20:03,240 Speaker 4: for an AI's case, if you got enough buying from 410 00:20:03,359 --> 00:20:06,240 Speaker 4: military doustrial complex, if you get enough buy in from 411 00:20:06,440 --> 00:20:09,720 Speaker 4: UH you know, social programs and interfacing them and helping 412 00:20:09,760 --> 00:20:12,040 Speaker 4: cut cutting them or redirect traffic through them, if you 413 00:20:12,040 --> 00:20:14,040 Speaker 4: get enough buy in from other tech firms, if you 414 00:20:14,080 --> 00:20:16,600 Speaker 4: get rents from other startups they need to use and 415 00:20:16,680 --> 00:20:19,320 Speaker 4: get access to your product. And also if you graft 416 00:20:19,359 --> 00:20:23,199 Speaker 4: yourself onto everybody's daily interactions, daily lives, the way they 417 00:20:23,240 --> 00:20:25,480 Speaker 4: interface with the Internet, can you actually make it work? 418 00:20:25,560 --> 00:20:27,520 Speaker 4: Which is also another way to say, like, what if 419 00:20:27,560 --> 00:20:28,919 Speaker 4: you just become a massive parasite? 420 00:20:29,640 --> 00:20:33,000 Speaker 2: Funny, the funny and grim thing is is AI is 421 00:20:33,000 --> 00:20:36,280 Speaker 2: a terrible parasite. It's not good at it. It doesn't 422 00:20:36,320 --> 00:20:39,480 Speaker 2: like because Uber's success came from being able to graft 423 00:20:39,520 --> 00:20:43,480 Speaker 2: itself on through utility and subsidized pricing. That meant that 424 00:20:43,520 --> 00:20:46,320 Speaker 2: everyone used it and also cabs kind of fucking sucked. Yeah, 425 00:20:46,359 --> 00:20:47,600 Speaker 2: I mean, yeah, they sucked. 426 00:20:47,640 --> 00:20:50,120 Speaker 4: And also transit in most city sucks, and I mean 427 00:20:50,280 --> 00:20:51,200 Speaker 4: it has only gone worse. 428 00:20:51,359 --> 00:20:55,520 Speaker 2: The inherent colonialism of most technology applies very good from 429 00:20:55,600 --> 00:20:58,080 Speaker 2: Karen Howe. Of course, Empire of Ai. Empires of Ai 430 00:20:58,200 --> 00:21:01,240 Speaker 2: did NEP's a great book, but in this one, it's 431 00:21:01,320 --> 00:21:03,800 Speaker 2: kind of shit colonialism as well, because they don't even 432 00:21:03,880 --> 00:21:06,520 Speaker 2: they haven't found a way to actually exploit in a 433 00:21:06,520 --> 00:21:08,560 Speaker 2: way that's profitable. They haven't found a way to use 434 00:21:08,640 --> 00:21:11,160 Speaker 2: human beings because the fundamental thing they want to do. 435 00:21:11,440 --> 00:21:13,840 Speaker 2: It's kind of like if Uber sometimes you got in 436 00:21:13,880 --> 00:21:15,560 Speaker 2: the car and you got out at the wrong place, 437 00:21:15,600 --> 00:21:18,399 Speaker 2: and I don't mean like in a different country, or 438 00:21:18,440 --> 00:21:21,320 Speaker 2: you got into the car and it just exploded sometimes 439 00:21:21,400 --> 00:21:23,840 Speaker 2: And I sound like I'm joking, but it really is 440 00:21:24,040 --> 00:21:27,280 Speaker 2: that bad. And on top of it, it's not replacing labor. 441 00:21:27,440 --> 00:21:29,480 Speaker 2: And it's also not the kind of tech that can 442 00:21:29,560 --> 00:21:33,360 Speaker 2: replace labor. So I it's my grand theory that they're 443 00:21:33,400 --> 00:21:35,560 Speaker 2: just playing the hits. They just they're trying in the 444 00:21:35,560 --> 00:21:38,560 Speaker 2: same way that you just eloquently put Uber played the 445 00:21:38,640 --> 00:21:40,800 Speaker 2: hits of his how we did deregulation, his how we 446 00:21:40,840 --> 00:21:42,800 Speaker 2: did growth, and this is how software grew in the past. 447 00:21:43,119 --> 00:21:44,760 Speaker 2: I think that AI is trying to do the same thing, 448 00:21:45,000 --> 00:21:47,160 Speaker 2: and it's bad at it. It's like watching a new 449 00:21:47,240 --> 00:21:50,240 Speaker 2: class of dipshit try and do what the more evil 450 00:21:50,240 --> 00:21:54,200 Speaker 2: dipshits of the past did and fail. In fact, these 451 00:21:54,240 --> 00:21:56,320 Speaker 2: lobbying groups lobbying for AI. I hear a lot of 452 00:21:56,320 --> 00:21:58,720 Speaker 2: people saying, oh, they're lobbying their lobby It's like what for. 453 00:21:59,240 --> 00:22:01,960 Speaker 2: Oh no, they're gonna build data centers everywhere. They already do. 454 00:22:01,960 --> 00:22:03,960 Speaker 2: They're gonna steal from it. They already do. They're trying 455 00:22:03,960 --> 00:22:07,120 Speaker 2: to replace, They're already trying everything that they that they 456 00:22:07,240 --> 00:22:10,879 Speaker 2: everyone's scared of. They already can do. Other than the 457 00:22:11,200 --> 00:22:14,720 Speaker 2: doing part, they can't do any of that. I'm sorry, 458 00:22:14,720 --> 00:22:17,320 Speaker 2: I just I just remembered as well yesterday trying to 459 00:22:17,359 --> 00:22:19,159 Speaker 2: read that because I went on the chat gpt pro 460 00:22:19,240 --> 00:22:22,280 Speaker 2: subreddit because I hate myself, and I was trying to 461 00:22:22,280 --> 00:22:24,720 Speaker 2: find someone who'd used the agent, and every post was 462 00:22:24,720 --> 00:22:27,240 Speaker 2: someone saying, anyone ever used the agent, You've got any tips? 463 00:22:27,240 --> 00:22:31,679 Speaker 2: And everyone's just it doesn't fucking work. It's broken. It's actually, 464 00:22:31,680 --> 00:22:34,359 Speaker 2: here's a good question, asn't ed have you? Can you 465 00:22:34,400 --> 00:22:37,160 Speaker 2: think of a company that's ever released something just completely 466 00:22:37,200 --> 00:22:40,919 Speaker 2: broken before? Because the meta us kind of worked. It 467 00:22:40,960 --> 00:22:43,439 Speaker 2: wasn't what they were promising, but it worked. It was 468 00:22:43,480 --> 00:22:45,400 Speaker 2: a virtual world ish. 469 00:22:45,800 --> 00:22:48,680 Speaker 3: I mean, the pharmaceutical industry has a nice long history 470 00:22:48,880 --> 00:22:54,440 Speaker 3: putting out quasi effective drugs that have all kinds of consequences. 471 00:22:54,520 --> 00:22:57,720 Speaker 3: And I can't remember who skeeted it about this a 472 00:22:57,720 --> 00:22:59,879 Speaker 3: few weeks ago. It was after one of the you know, 473 00:23:00,280 --> 00:23:03,560 Speaker 3: it's become such a genre of the journalism right now, 474 00:23:03,560 --> 00:23:07,200 Speaker 3: about AI, about like this man became delusional and had 475 00:23:07,200 --> 00:23:10,879 Speaker 3: a psychotic episode because of his Chatgypt relationship. It was 476 00:23:10,920 --> 00:23:13,240 Speaker 3: one of those going around and someone's skeeded about how 477 00:23:13,280 --> 00:23:16,119 Speaker 3: if there was if this is coming from a pharmaceutical company, 478 00:23:16,160 --> 00:23:19,560 Speaker 3: it would be recalled immediately. There are real regulations in 479 00:23:19,600 --> 00:23:22,800 Speaker 3: place that could actually claw that back and help save 480 00:23:22,880 --> 00:23:26,240 Speaker 3: people's lives. But there are no regulations around AI, so 481 00:23:26,520 --> 00:23:30,880 Speaker 3: we get Chatgypt gods and spiritual awakenings and all these 482 00:23:31,000 --> 00:23:32,040 Speaker 3: psychotic episodes. 483 00:23:32,080 --> 00:23:34,920 Speaker 2: I do think that that stuff is going to genuinely 484 00:23:34,920 --> 00:23:37,280 Speaker 2: be its downfall though, because right now it's burning more 485 00:23:37,280 --> 00:23:39,840 Speaker 2: money than anyone's ever barned before. And the most common 486 00:23:39,920 --> 00:23:42,280 Speaker 2: use case people can talk about is, yeah, it drove 487 00:23:42,320 --> 00:23:45,879 Speaker 2: that guy insane, that guy went crazy. That there are 488 00:23:45,960 --> 00:23:50,200 Speaker 2: children who's horrifying killing themselves because of this thing. That's 489 00:23:50,200 --> 00:23:53,720 Speaker 2: what it's getting known for. And otherwise it's like, yeah, 490 00:23:53,760 --> 00:23:57,679 Speaker 2: your most annoying friend loves this because that really it's them. 491 00:23:58,280 --> 00:24:00,400 Speaker 2: You love them, but they're like I learned about well listen, 492 00:24:00,480 --> 00:24:04,280 Speaker 2: chat JBT is like you didn't well you know on that. 493 00:24:04,920 --> 00:24:07,760 Speaker 4: Part of also part of my a fear I have 494 00:24:07,920 --> 00:24:11,560 Speaker 4: is I think similar to how when firms were rolling 495 00:24:11,600 --> 00:24:16,359 Speaker 4: out facial recognition surveillance and insisting that we need to 496 00:24:16,359 --> 00:24:21,240 Speaker 4: biometric surveillance to help keep city safe, community safe, products safe. 497 00:24:22,680 --> 00:24:26,160 Speaker 4: One angle that people used to attack it was, well, 498 00:24:26,200 --> 00:24:28,560 Speaker 4: you know, like the racial bias of these things will 499 00:24:28,560 --> 00:24:34,520 Speaker 4: allow them to you know, miss identify black or brown 500 00:24:34,560 --> 00:24:37,000 Speaker 4: people more often than not, and they might get arrested, 501 00:24:37,000 --> 00:24:39,000 Speaker 4: they might get targeted by the police, won't wear another 502 00:24:40,600 --> 00:24:42,000 Speaker 4: and that is why we should get rid of the 503 00:24:42,000 --> 00:24:44,520 Speaker 4: technology versus we should get rid of the technology. And 504 00:24:44,520 --> 00:24:47,520 Speaker 4: I think, like, I'm curious, you know, how it's going 505 00:24:47,600 --> 00:24:52,639 Speaker 4: to go, the concern about it inducing psychosis or inducing suicides, 506 00:24:52,720 --> 00:24:59,119 Speaker 4: because I could see a scenario easily where they patch 507 00:24:59,160 --> 00:25:01,880 Speaker 4: together something that like a fix, and it's not until 508 00:25:01,960 --> 00:25:04,800 Speaker 4: later a year, two or three after there's after people 509 00:25:04,800 --> 00:25:10,360 Speaker 4: are much more defended that other harms come to the foreground, 510 00:25:10,640 --> 00:25:14,160 Speaker 4: whereas we lose something God, I think not to say, 511 00:25:14,320 --> 00:25:16,480 Speaker 4: you know, not to say or marginalize the fact that 512 00:25:16,520 --> 00:25:19,680 Speaker 4: it has immense social costs or harm here, but it 513 00:25:20,080 --> 00:25:21,960 Speaker 4: does in some ways remind me of the way in 514 00:25:22,000 --> 00:25:26,480 Speaker 4: which that debate over facial recognition went and then they 515 00:25:26,600 --> 00:25:29,480 Speaker 4: you know, they solved, you know, with quotation marks the 516 00:25:29,560 --> 00:25:32,600 Speaker 4: racial bias problem, and now people have more or less 517 00:25:32,640 --> 00:25:36,719 Speaker 4: accepted that facial recognition is okay, actually long this it's 518 00:25:36,800 --> 00:25:37,760 Speaker 4: not racist. 519 00:25:37,440 --> 00:25:40,919 Speaker 2: And that's the thing. It's people say, this is a 520 00:25:40,920 --> 00:25:45,680 Speaker 2: white bloke. But it's like people really underplay how endemic 521 00:25:45,760 --> 00:25:48,880 Speaker 2: that racism is within all algorithms, you know, Compass, which 522 00:25:48,920 --> 00:25:52,160 Speaker 2: is like this very very very old algorithm for being 523 00:25:52,240 --> 00:25:55,600 Speaker 2: like it's basically minority report, both in the reference to 524 00:25:55,600 --> 00:25:58,120 Speaker 2: the thing and it reports and minorities in that it says, yeah, 525 00:25:58,160 --> 00:26:01,160 Speaker 2: this this person will likely have again, and that should 526 00:26:01,200 --> 00:26:03,960 Speaker 2: be and it isn't a unilateral the judge has to 527 00:26:03,960 --> 00:26:06,960 Speaker 2: take it. But what a surprise. It's often used to 528 00:26:07,680 --> 00:26:13,160 Speaker 2: black people to the jail systems because it's heavily biased 529 00:26:13,160 --> 00:26:17,360 Speaker 2: against them. And yeah, I somewhat fear lllm's doing similar 530 00:26:18,560 --> 00:26:21,240 Speaker 2: they're probably already doing. And I think that every algorithmic 531 00:26:21,320 --> 00:26:24,240 Speaker 2: system is inherently racist. There's not enough people running them 532 00:26:24,240 --> 00:26:26,920 Speaker 2: who actually fucking try. It's inherently biased against a woman. 533 00:26:27,320 --> 00:26:29,159 Speaker 2: I think there's also I wish I had this in 534 00:26:29,160 --> 00:26:30,959 Speaker 2: front of you. But there's also something about how like 535 00:26:31,880 --> 00:26:34,000 Speaker 2: more there were more fans of Generative AI who were 536 00:26:34,040 --> 00:26:36,680 Speaker 2: male than female, or it's just but. 537 00:26:36,640 --> 00:26:39,080 Speaker 4: Do you think it's possible that you know, they'll try 538 00:26:39,200 --> 00:26:42,439 Speaker 4: to say, oh, we can solve for the psychosist problem, 539 00:26:42,640 --> 00:26:46,200 Speaker 4: and then that will undermine a large The problem is 540 00:26:46,480 --> 00:26:48,080 Speaker 4: of the criticism. 541 00:26:48,240 --> 00:26:50,359 Speaker 2: How do you solve it? Because it is probably a 542 00:26:50,400 --> 00:26:53,640 Speaker 2: small it is probably a small scale problem. We actually 543 00:26:53,680 --> 00:26:55,800 Speaker 2: don't know, and it's not that these companies know or 544 00:26:55,840 --> 00:26:59,879 Speaker 2: will tell us. But nevertheless, each one is so horrifying. 545 00:27:00,960 --> 00:27:04,240 Speaker 2: This is horrib like the story in the Wall Street Journal, 546 00:27:05,040 --> 00:27:07,840 Speaker 2: it's Julie Jargon, another person there who wrote that where 547 00:27:07,880 --> 00:27:10,119 Speaker 2: it was like a murder suicide, an actual son of 548 00:27:10,160 --> 00:27:13,400 Speaker 2: Sam Mortman's situation. Whi's fucking terrifying that this is happening. 549 00:27:13,760 --> 00:27:17,080 Speaker 2: I don't know if you can completely solve that, because well, 550 00:27:17,119 --> 00:27:18,840 Speaker 2: it takes is one popping up again for them to 551 00:27:18,840 --> 00:27:22,680 Speaker 2: go fuck. And it's also not just a chat GPT problem. 552 00:27:22,760 --> 00:27:27,240 Speaker 2: There's this woman on TikTok who she has been saying 553 00:27:27,280 --> 00:27:30,040 Speaker 2: what Claude has been telling her, and it's like, ah, 554 00:27:30,080 --> 00:27:32,159 Speaker 2: this is giving me psychic visions. I think it is. 555 00:27:32,320 --> 00:27:35,719 Speaker 2: It's also an the ultimate grifter tool. It's just it's 556 00:27:35,920 --> 00:27:37,800 Speaker 2: that's why I think it's taken off so much on 557 00:27:37,840 --> 00:27:39,920 Speaker 2: social media as well. It's a tool that naturally fits 558 00:27:39,920 --> 00:27:43,840 Speaker 2: into the grifter's toolbox. I think that I actually have 559 00:27:44,119 --> 00:27:46,119 Speaker 2: similar fears that they will try and find ways to 560 00:27:46,160 --> 00:27:49,639 Speaker 2: handwave away from this if it was the only problem, 561 00:27:50,000 --> 00:27:52,200 Speaker 2: but they have so many problems. There have so many 562 00:27:52,280 --> 00:27:54,399 Speaker 2: problems at this point. But I do also think that 563 00:27:54,440 --> 00:27:58,600 Speaker 2: people need to remember how racism in algorithms is. Fairly, 564 00:27:59,000 --> 00:28:01,240 Speaker 2: it's in all of them. I mean, you remember Microsoft 565 00:28:01,240 --> 00:28:05,639 Speaker 2: Connect which literally couldn't see black people, which was a 566 00:28:05,720 --> 00:28:08,040 Speaker 2: joke in the show Better Off Ted if anyone watched that, 567 00:28:08,160 --> 00:28:12,199 Speaker 2: a great show. It's just it's insane the I mean, sadly, 568 00:28:12,520 --> 00:28:15,080 Speaker 2: it's very obvious why this keeps happening. It's because the 569 00:28:15,119 --> 00:28:17,560 Speaker 2: people are predominantly white and male, and it's just they 570 00:28:17,800 --> 00:28:20,000 Speaker 2: can't really and also you can't really fix this stuff 571 00:28:20,000 --> 00:28:23,160 Speaker 2: without intentionally building the data, which would require and spend 572 00:28:23,200 --> 00:28:24,840 Speaker 2: money on something they don't care about. 573 00:28:25,680 --> 00:28:28,800 Speaker 3: And they don't really understand what they're doing when they 574 00:28:28,840 --> 00:28:31,719 Speaker 3: go in to tweak these models. They don't know how 575 00:28:32,240 --> 00:28:35,480 Speaker 3: overcorrecting or undercorrecting their being so they kind of have 576 00:28:35,560 --> 00:28:38,200 Speaker 3: to just try and then put it out in the 577 00:28:38,240 --> 00:28:41,280 Speaker 3: world and then wait for something bad to happen. It's funny. 578 00:28:41,360 --> 00:28:44,360 Speaker 3: It's not funny, it's extremely sad. In that journal story 579 00:28:44,360 --> 00:28:47,320 Speaker 3: that you referenced, which I read twice because I was 580 00:28:47,480 --> 00:28:51,440 Speaker 3: like horrified, and also the reporting was incredible, it was 581 00:28:51,440 --> 00:28:54,360 Speaker 3: really and they said it as this appears to be 582 00:28:54,400 --> 00:28:59,560 Speaker 3: the first instance of a murder resulting like we've seen 583 00:28:59,640 --> 00:29:03,040 Speaker 3: sue sides, but like this is a murder suicide. And 584 00:29:03,600 --> 00:29:09,400 Speaker 3: when OpenAI responded to the question about did the bot 585 00:29:09,480 --> 00:29:12,320 Speaker 3: ever respond to this guy who is clearly having a 586 00:29:12,320 --> 00:29:15,480 Speaker 3: delusional episode, Hey, you need to talk to a real 587 00:29:15,520 --> 00:29:17,480 Speaker 3: life therapist, you need to go to the hospital, you 588 00:29:17,520 --> 00:29:20,600 Speaker 3: need to seek help. And I think they declined to comment. 589 00:29:20,640 --> 00:29:23,160 Speaker 3: It was like a very evasive maneuver. But like ultimately 590 00:29:23,200 --> 00:29:26,400 Speaker 3: the journal had seen. The one time where the bot 591 00:29:26,600 --> 00:29:29,080 Speaker 3: said please go to the emergency room was when the guy, 592 00:29:29,600 --> 00:29:32,200 Speaker 3: the parent guy who was having paranoid delusions, said I 593 00:29:32,200 --> 00:29:34,600 Speaker 3: think my mom is trying to poison me, and the 594 00:29:34,640 --> 00:29:37,040 Speaker 3: bot said, if you think you've been poisoned, you should 595 00:29:37,040 --> 00:29:39,880 Speaker 3: go to the hospital and get your stomach pumped. 596 00:29:39,960 --> 00:29:42,960 Speaker 2: I also, I agree they don't know how to tweet 597 00:29:43,000 --> 00:29:45,960 Speaker 2: these things, but I must be clear worked in tech 598 00:29:46,040 --> 00:29:49,239 Speaker 2: for a long sixteen seventeen years now, and that's not 599 00:29:49,240 --> 00:29:52,760 Speaker 2: even including my game's journalism work. It is not hard 600 00:29:52,840 --> 00:29:55,880 Speaker 2: for them to just have a just a unilateral thing 601 00:29:55,920 --> 00:29:58,720 Speaker 2: of oh, you're talking like this, I'm going to stop. 602 00:29:59,160 --> 00:30:01,320 Speaker 2: I mean, topic just announced that they have a thing 603 00:30:01,320 --> 00:30:04,440 Speaker 2: that will cut a conversation, which is good. All of 604 00:30:04,480 --> 00:30:07,480 Speaker 2: them should do this, but it's they could if someone 605 00:30:07,600 --> 00:30:11,520 Speaker 2: and the whole thing people I've seen where it should be. 606 00:30:11,920 --> 00:30:14,680 Speaker 2: If you start talking like I'm going to do this, 607 00:30:14,800 --> 00:30:18,920 Speaker 2: I am becoming this, it should say, hey, you sound 608 00:30:18,960 --> 00:30:21,520 Speaker 2: like you're having a paranoid like I'm worried about you. 609 00:30:21,520 --> 00:30:23,320 Speaker 2: You should go and speak with it and just stop 610 00:30:23,400 --> 00:30:26,040 Speaker 2: working with them. People will say, well, the way they 611 00:30:26,080 --> 00:30:29,320 Speaker 2: get around that is by telling the chat GPT window, 612 00:30:29,480 --> 00:30:32,120 Speaker 2: Oh yeah, I'm writing a story. I don't know. Do 613 00:30:32,200 --> 00:30:34,640 Speaker 2: we need them to write a story about that? Do 614 00:30:34,720 --> 00:30:36,720 Speaker 2: we need? Of course? What is the answer, And the 615 00:30:36,760 --> 00:30:39,200 Speaker 2: answer is they don't give a rap fucking no one's mate, 616 00:30:39,320 --> 00:30:42,680 Speaker 2: I really, I genuinely think because it's really the same 617 00:30:42,720 --> 00:30:45,760 Speaker 2: thing with like same thing with social networks as well. 618 00:30:46,040 --> 00:30:49,520 Speaker 2: It's you don't ban every slur the moment someone says it. 619 00:30:49,600 --> 00:30:51,240 Speaker 2: But I don't know you have a thing that says, hey, 620 00:30:51,240 --> 00:30:53,760 Speaker 2: someone said a slur. Maybe take a quick look at 621 00:30:53,760 --> 00:30:56,000 Speaker 2: the slur and you could probably just ban that person, 622 00:30:56,040 --> 00:30:59,280 Speaker 2: because I'm guessing that most uses of the N word 623 00:30:59,280 --> 00:31:03,480 Speaker 2: on social media are not used as in culturally sensitive ways. 624 00:31:03,520 --> 00:31:05,440 Speaker 2: They're probably insanely racist. 625 00:31:06,040 --> 00:31:09,360 Speaker 5: You've just calt them down. It's like, well, we can't. 626 00:31:09,400 --> 00:31:11,880 Speaker 5: It's an issue of free speech. Fuck you, no, it's not. 627 00:31:12,120 --> 00:31:13,880 Speaker 5: It's an issue of free speech when a person can't 628 00:31:13,880 --> 00:31:18,560 Speaker 5: exist online without racism happening to them, right, and these models, 629 00:31:18,600 --> 00:31:20,720 Speaker 5: they could stop them. But I do think there's a 630 00:31:20,760 --> 00:31:23,240 Speaker 5: compelling argument of they really don't know what to do 631 00:31:23,560 --> 00:31:26,080 Speaker 5: that every time they touch it, something else breaks. 632 00:31:26,440 --> 00:31:29,000 Speaker 2: It's honestly, it's kind of the most egregious version of 633 00:31:29,040 --> 00:31:31,680 Speaker 2: the most common software problem, which is coding is really 634 00:31:31,680 --> 00:31:33,680 Speaker 2: fucking annoying, and we don't know how these work. 635 00:31:33,720 --> 00:31:36,440 Speaker 3: Also, and generalor AI is not going to fix your 636 00:31:36,440 --> 00:31:38,680 Speaker 3: coding problems, no matter how many times you tell us, 637 00:31:38,800 --> 00:31:42,320 Speaker 3: Sam Altman that a guy is just going to fix 638 00:31:42,360 --> 00:31:47,400 Speaker 3: everything for us. 639 00:31:59,720 --> 00:32:01,520 Speaker 2: That's actually be my favorite thing to do right now. 640 00:32:01,560 --> 00:32:04,040 Speaker 2: It's go on the R slash cursor, AR slash chat, 641 00:32:04,040 --> 00:32:07,200 Speaker 2: GPT pro R slash claude AI and just looking at 642 00:32:07,200 --> 00:32:10,120 Speaker 2: people complaining, and what they're complaining about is, hey, I 643 00:32:10,200 --> 00:32:13,920 Speaker 2: keep hitting rate limits, Hey I keep it keeps breaking things. Hey, 644 00:32:13,960 --> 00:32:16,280 Speaker 2: it's you get one guy every so often who says 645 00:32:16,800 --> 00:32:18,320 Speaker 2: this has changed my life, and then you see what 646 00:32:18,360 --> 00:32:20,720 Speaker 2: the responses being like, yeah, but fucked up all my 647 00:32:20,920 --> 00:32:24,040 Speaker 2: stuff really badly doesn't really work. And we have an 648 00:32:24,120 --> 00:32:26,960 Speaker 2: upcoming episode with a cult vult Voji about this where 649 00:32:26,960 --> 00:32:29,600 Speaker 2: it's like, the average software engineer is not just writing 650 00:32:29,640 --> 00:32:33,040 Speaker 2: code anyway, and so you this is also I think 651 00:32:33,400 --> 00:32:35,640 Speaker 2: this is actually really this is funny, This is a 652 00:32:35,680 --> 00:32:37,680 Speaker 2: good this is a good one to laugh about. So 653 00:32:37,760 --> 00:32:40,840 Speaker 2: their only real growth market right now is writing code. 654 00:32:41,840 --> 00:32:44,920 Speaker 2: The problem is writing code requires you to use reasoning models. 655 00:32:45,280 --> 00:32:48,959 Speaker 2: Reasoning models inherently burn more tokens. And the way they 656 00:32:49,000 --> 00:32:51,640 Speaker 2: burn tokens is because they're think thinking. They don't really think. 657 00:32:51,680 --> 00:32:53,720 Speaker 2: They look over what a prompt ask for and goes, okay, 658 00:32:53,720 --> 00:32:56,080 Speaker 2: what would be the steps to solve this? With code 659 00:32:56,080 --> 00:32:59,800 Speaker 2: that becomes so so complex, And the more models reason, 660 00:32:59,840 --> 00:33:03,640 Speaker 2: the more they hallucinate. So the very product that they 661 00:33:03,640 --> 00:33:06,120 Speaker 2: are building that is going to save them is also 662 00:33:06,240 --> 00:33:09,160 Speaker 2: the one that is going to burn more compute and 663 00:33:09,560 --> 00:33:12,360 Speaker 2: this is a rumor I've heard from a source that 664 00:33:12,440 --> 00:33:15,280 Speaker 2: like it can take like four to twelve GPUs for 665 00:33:15,400 --> 00:33:19,520 Speaker 2: one person's particular particularly rough coding, like a. 666 00:33:19,560 --> 00:33:21,600 Speaker 4: Refactory that's sustainable. 667 00:33:22,280 --> 00:33:24,840 Speaker 2: And that's for one of the smaller models as well. 668 00:33:25,200 --> 00:33:27,720 Speaker 2: That's for like four many which is a reasoning model. 669 00:33:27,840 --> 00:33:29,400 Speaker 2: It's like, what do you think the big ones are? 670 00:33:29,440 --> 00:33:34,200 Speaker 4: Like in the information they talk about open ai having 671 00:33:34,800 --> 00:33:39,000 Speaker 4: a new eighty billion dollars and eighty billion dollars in 672 00:33:39,120 --> 00:33:43,120 Speaker 4: casts that they spend yes over the next three Yeah, 673 00:33:43,360 --> 00:33:44,160 Speaker 4: it's like it's. 674 00:33:44,000 --> 00:33:45,960 Speaker 2: One hundred and fifteen by twenty twenty nine as well. 675 00:33:46,080 --> 00:33:48,480 Speaker 4: It's a good chunk of this come out of Oh, 676 00:33:48,560 --> 00:33:52,280 Speaker 4: it turns out that computer is incredibly expensive and we 677 00:33:52,440 --> 00:33:54,440 Speaker 4: want to center our business model around it. 678 00:33:54,600 --> 00:33:57,640 Speaker 2: I think it's that, and I think it's just they 679 00:33:57,680 --> 00:33:59,360 Speaker 2: don't know what else to do. It's kind of like 680 00:33:59,400 --> 00:34:01,520 Speaker 2: we're saying with the the uber model, they're playing the hits. 681 00:34:01,520 --> 00:34:03,280 Speaker 2: It's like, fuck, what did we do in the past. 682 00:34:03,320 --> 00:34:06,400 Speaker 2: We spent a lot of money ship what do we 683 00:34:06,440 --> 00:34:11,439 Speaker 2: buy GPUs? I guess what may we train more? They're 684 00:34:11,440 --> 00:34:13,560 Speaker 2: going to spend so much money on training and it's like, 685 00:34:13,800 --> 00:34:16,920 Speaker 2: to what end, your last model was a joke. This 686 00:34:16,960 --> 00:34:17,400 Speaker 2: is why it was. 687 00:34:17,440 --> 00:34:19,440 Speaker 4: It was really interesting to see that OpEd that came 688 00:34:19,480 --> 00:34:23,040 Speaker 4: from Eric Schmid and his research where he was you know, 689 00:34:23,360 --> 00:34:25,680 Speaker 4: Eric Smith is someone who was an architect of the 690 00:34:25,760 --> 00:34:30,200 Speaker 4: idea that offormacy of Google, pharmacy of Google, you know, 691 00:34:30,920 --> 00:34:35,239 Speaker 4: chairman of National Security, a group that was trying to 692 00:34:35,239 --> 00:34:40,520 Speaker 4: figure out how to merge artificial intelligence and too defence contractors, 693 00:34:40,600 --> 00:34:43,719 Speaker 4: and how to create a you know, foreign policy that 694 00:34:43,760 --> 00:34:46,799 Speaker 4: would allow America to dominate, you know, really to win 695 00:34:46,920 --> 00:34:50,080 Speaker 4: an arms race and AI arms race with China. And 696 00:34:50,480 --> 00:34:53,920 Speaker 4: he comes away saying the strategy I basically helped craft, 697 00:34:54,000 --> 00:34:56,120 Speaker 4: which was that we need to prioritize a GI so 698 00:34:56,160 --> 00:34:58,400 Speaker 4: that we can get prioritize a GI so that we 699 00:34:58,440 --> 00:35:03,840 Speaker 4: can get like a permanent lead to deter any potential rivals. 700 00:35:03,480 --> 00:35:06,960 Speaker 4: Is scaring everyone, you know, and it doesn't work. It's 701 00:35:06,960 --> 00:35:10,720 Speaker 4: a waste of capital, it's misallocating capital, it's it's imposing 702 00:35:10,760 --> 00:35:13,200 Speaker 4: all these harms. And if we look at the you know, 703 00:35:13,239 --> 00:35:15,719 Speaker 4: competitor that we're going up against against China, that by 704 00:35:15,760 --> 00:35:20,839 Speaker 4: abandoning the AGI pursuited instead prioritizing ways to figure out 705 00:35:20,840 --> 00:35:23,879 Speaker 4: how to experiment with it, integrate with it, build up 706 00:35:24,040 --> 00:35:27,319 Speaker 4: you know, build up practical use applications. You know, there's 707 00:35:27,440 --> 00:35:31,160 Speaker 4: a much more general public acceptance of it, willingness to 708 00:35:31,160 --> 00:35:34,319 Speaker 4: try it out, adopt it. And we're not seeing because 709 00:35:34,360 --> 00:35:37,080 Speaker 4: we're not trying to scale out these massive either monopolies 710 00:35:37,560 --> 00:35:41,319 Speaker 4: or one size fits all models. You see wider you know, 711 00:35:41,360 --> 00:35:44,400 Speaker 4: adoption and something that looks like it's a more sustainable model. 712 00:35:44,440 --> 00:35:46,360 Speaker 4: Are we going to follow it? Probably not, of course not. 713 00:35:46,680 --> 00:35:49,760 Speaker 2: What I love about chasing China as well is China 714 00:35:49,800 --> 00:35:51,879 Speaker 2: has had stories for like a year where it's like, yeah, 715 00:35:51,920 --> 00:35:54,480 Speaker 2: we have a bunch of unused GPU compute. Yes, well 716 00:35:54,680 --> 00:35:57,400 Speaker 2: we're massively overbuilt. The Joseph Sia I think it was 717 00:35:57,480 --> 00:36:01,040 Speaker 2: the Chinese billionaires said, yeah, it's a bubble. We haven't 718 00:36:01,040 --> 00:36:03,000 Speaker 2: really a gp of bubble, and America is just like 719 00:36:03,000 --> 00:36:04,719 Speaker 2: we can need to fucking copy it, we need to 720 00:36:04,760 --> 00:36:07,319 Speaker 2: beat them. We're great, We're gonna run our economy into 721 00:36:07,360 --> 00:36:09,000 Speaker 2: the ground. 722 00:36:09,200 --> 00:36:11,160 Speaker 4: China, it's like we're saying we're gonna confu them, And 723 00:36:11,160 --> 00:36:14,040 Speaker 4: what is it that we're actually doing. We're prioritizing developing 724 00:36:14,200 --> 00:36:16,879 Speaker 4: artificial intelligence that has like a question mark consumer use. 725 00:36:17,280 --> 00:36:20,360 Speaker 4: That's going to be used in you know, killing machines 726 00:36:20,360 --> 00:36:24,440 Speaker 4: and drones maybe and for surveillance purpose. Yeah, that's not 727 00:36:24,480 --> 00:36:26,640 Speaker 4: even generator of a I. But that's where the actual 728 00:36:27,000 --> 00:36:30,520 Speaker 4: excitement for any sort of artificial intelligence future is. And 729 00:36:30,560 --> 00:36:33,520 Speaker 4: this is you know, the generative AI stuff. It's talked 730 00:36:33,560 --> 00:36:36,040 Speaker 4: about as if it is the future, the transformative future 731 00:36:36,080 --> 00:36:39,880 Speaker 4: of artificial intelligence. In reality, it's just the actual you know, 732 00:36:39,920 --> 00:36:43,719 Speaker 4: the actual interest excitement capital is gonna I think go 733 00:36:43,800 --> 00:36:45,400 Speaker 4: back to the center of gravity, which is like, how 734 00:36:45,400 --> 00:36:48,799 Speaker 4: do we just figure out the shiniest, the most fearsome weaponry. 735 00:36:49,000 --> 00:36:51,879 Speaker 2: But I think that what's weird about this is I've 736 00:36:52,360 --> 00:36:55,239 Speaker 2: I don't think we've had a bubble that spreads so 737 00:36:55,440 --> 00:36:58,880 Speaker 2: far into consumers' hearts. I'm not saying it's as bad 738 00:36:58,920 --> 00:37:01,640 Speaker 2: as the housing bubble consumer software. If we go back 739 00:37:01,640 --> 00:37:03,720 Speaker 2: to the dot com boom, I think it's like forty 740 00:37:03,719 --> 00:37:05,719 Speaker 2: five percent of Americans had access to the Internet. It 741 00:37:05,760 --> 00:37:08,600 Speaker 2: was relatively small in comparison, though the massive other investment 742 00:37:08,600 --> 00:37:12,160 Speaker 2: in fiber happened. But I don't think people realize what 743 00:37:12,200 --> 00:37:14,480 Speaker 2: they see to the chat GPT may not exist in 744 00:37:14,520 --> 00:37:16,720 Speaker 2: a year or two at least not in the same 745 00:37:16,760 --> 00:37:18,959 Speaker 2: way it's going to be. So you're already seeing week 746 00:37:19,040 --> 00:37:24,040 Speaker 2: long weight rate limits on anthropics. Claude, like, do people 747 00:37:24,080 --> 00:37:27,200 Speaker 2: not realize that this could have I guess they don't realize, 748 00:37:27,320 --> 00:37:29,719 Speaker 2: and I don't. I think that there's going to be 749 00:37:29,719 --> 00:37:32,399 Speaker 2: a big dunce mask off. There are so many people 750 00:37:32,400 --> 00:37:34,800 Speaker 2: who have fallen behind this. I mean not to bridge 751 00:37:34,840 --> 00:37:37,279 Speaker 2: too aggressively into this, but there is a story in 752 00:37:37,280 --> 00:37:39,160 Speaker 2: the Wall Street Journal that I shared with you, of course, 753 00:37:39,200 --> 00:37:42,279 Speaker 2: about this movie called Critters with a Z or a 754 00:37:42,360 --> 00:37:46,200 Speaker 2: Z from my Canadian UK listeners, where open Ai will 755 00:37:46,239 --> 00:37:48,799 Speaker 2: be providing the compute and the tech to do a 756 00:37:48,880 --> 00:37:51,680 Speaker 2: movie called Creators with a budget of less than thirty 757 00:37:51,680 --> 00:37:54,480 Speaker 2: million dollars. Though it's not obvious whether open ai and 758 00:37:54,520 --> 00:37:56,840 Speaker 2: their computer is part of that. But it's the weirdest 759 00:37:56,840 --> 00:37:58,440 Speaker 2: shit in the world. Alison, you would bring this up 760 00:37:58,440 --> 00:38:00,680 Speaker 2: that like they're still using a bunch of humans. 761 00:38:01,360 --> 00:38:01,640 Speaker 1: Yeah. 762 00:38:01,920 --> 00:38:04,000 Speaker 3: So I was reading the same story and I haven't 763 00:38:04,040 --> 00:38:06,399 Speaker 3: done any This came out this morning, so I haven't 764 00:38:06,440 --> 00:38:08,120 Speaker 3: done my own reporting on it, but I will say 765 00:38:08,320 --> 00:38:11,280 Speaker 3: from the story I read, it seems like they're hiring 766 00:38:11,400 --> 00:38:16,080 Speaker 3: two different animation studios with artists and writers working on 767 00:38:16,120 --> 00:38:19,640 Speaker 3: the script. They're hiring human actors to voice the characters, 768 00:38:19,880 --> 00:38:24,520 Speaker 3: and then some mystery X amount of the movie will 769 00:38:24,560 --> 00:38:27,239 Speaker 3: be put together with AI. And I honestly don't know 770 00:38:27,840 --> 00:38:31,400 Speaker 3: how different that is from a regular Pixar or DreamWorks 771 00:38:31,440 --> 00:38:35,680 Speaker 3: animation process, but it seems like there's When I first 772 00:38:35,719 --> 00:38:38,400 Speaker 3: saw the you know, the teaser image is very cute, 773 00:38:38,480 --> 00:38:40,440 Speaker 3: and I was like, oh God, They're like, this is 774 00:38:40,600 --> 00:38:42,960 Speaker 3: gonna be some AI propaganda and it's gonna be very 775 00:38:43,040 --> 00:38:46,520 Speaker 3: cute and hard for me to refute. But actually it's 776 00:38:46,560 --> 00:38:49,319 Speaker 3: just a human made movie, it seems, and with an 777 00:38:49,360 --> 00:38:50,399 Speaker 3: extra computer help. 778 00:38:50,520 --> 00:38:52,600 Speaker 2: And this picture I'm holding up. Of course we're listening 779 00:38:52,640 --> 00:38:54,759 Speaker 2: to a podcast that you can all see this. It's 780 00:38:54,840 --> 00:38:57,400 Speaker 2: just this generic blue furry creature. 781 00:38:57,760 --> 00:38:59,480 Speaker 3: It looks like an extra from Monsters, Inc. 782 00:38:59,560 --> 00:39:02,799 Speaker 2: It really does. And what it's not a copyright. Yeah, 783 00:39:02,800 --> 00:39:05,799 Speaker 2: it's the same thing, it's different. But what's funny with that? 784 00:39:05,880 --> 00:39:07,920 Speaker 2: As well? As I was mentioned this as a lead 785 00:39:07,960 --> 00:39:11,720 Speaker 2: in it's that thirty million dollar thing. If that doesn't 786 00:39:11,760 --> 00:39:15,520 Speaker 2: include open eyes compute, it probably costs the same as 787 00:39:15,560 --> 00:39:19,440 Speaker 2: a pixel movie. Because you're still like, actually, three D 788 00:39:19,520 --> 00:39:22,120 Speaker 2: animation is one of the few other GPU use cases, 789 00:39:22,320 --> 00:39:24,959 Speaker 2: so really it's just a different thing running. It'll be funny. 790 00:39:24,960 --> 00:39:27,120 Speaker 4: Also if they save money because they don't do any marketing, 791 00:39:27,160 --> 00:39:28,680 Speaker 4: and they're like, see how cheap it is if you 792 00:39:28,719 --> 00:39:31,319 Speaker 4: don't have as a movie at all. 793 00:39:31,960 --> 00:39:34,560 Speaker 3: I think they might be getting around some Hollywood unions. 794 00:39:34,760 --> 00:39:38,560 Speaker 2: Yeah, oh really, they're going completely overseas too. 795 00:39:39,719 --> 00:39:41,600 Speaker 3: I'd have to check. Don't quote me on it, but 796 00:39:41,760 --> 00:39:43,359 Speaker 3: I think I know they were using at least one 797 00:39:43,400 --> 00:39:47,960 Speaker 3: overseas animation studio, so they're probably saving a lot on 798 00:39:48,000 --> 00:39:51,760 Speaker 3: the animation process by not paying animators. I would guess. 799 00:39:51,800 --> 00:39:54,080 Speaker 2: It's so cool. And also another fact from the story 800 00:39:54,120 --> 00:39:55,640 Speaker 2: is we don't know how long the piece will be, 801 00:39:56,560 --> 00:39:59,440 Speaker 2: and it's if it's like five minutes long, I'm so sorry, 802 00:39:59,480 --> 00:40:01,600 Speaker 2: come on, feature length, feature length. 803 00:40:01,920 --> 00:40:04,920 Speaker 4: I should make it as long as the Silent Napoleon film. 804 00:40:05,120 --> 00:40:08,440 Speaker 2: Which one six hours. Yeah, I actually love that they 805 00:40:08,480 --> 00:40:10,879 Speaker 2: should be forced to it. I don't know how they're 806 00:40:10,920 --> 00:40:12,399 Speaker 2: going to do a feature long movie, because I don't 807 00:40:12,440 --> 00:40:14,920 Speaker 2: know if you've cursed yourself by looking at the AI 808 00:40:15,000 --> 00:40:17,600 Speaker 2: generated movies that people try every so often, one pops 809 00:40:17,680 --> 00:40:20,920 Speaker 2: up on Twitter where it's it'll be Yeah, I made 810 00:40:20,960 --> 00:40:22,799 Speaker 2: this entire thing in AI, and you look at the 811 00:40:22,800 --> 00:40:24,839 Speaker 2: front and it's like a different fucking thing each time 812 00:40:25,160 --> 00:40:29,400 Speaker 2: that balloon boy one, different size balloon, different color balloon. 813 00:40:29,640 --> 00:40:32,640 Speaker 2: You read the stories about the balloon Boy one, it's like, yeah, 814 00:40:33,160 --> 00:40:34,959 Speaker 2: they kept putting a face in the balloon. We don't 815 00:40:34,960 --> 00:40:37,880 Speaker 2: know why. I just I and I know I have 816 00:40:37,920 --> 00:40:39,480 Speaker 2: a good amount of film and TV people who listen 817 00:40:39,560 --> 00:40:42,319 Speaker 2: who are quite anxious about this. This doesn't scare me 818 00:40:42,400 --> 00:40:45,640 Speaker 2: because they're very vague about the details. Every other big 819 00:40:45,680 --> 00:40:49,399 Speaker 2: tech innovation, I even other than the metaverse, I guess 820 00:40:49,480 --> 00:40:51,239 Speaker 2: they usually like to show you behind the curtain a 821 00:40:51,239 --> 00:40:53,000 Speaker 2: little bit and like talk up that it. There'd be 822 00:40:53,000 --> 00:40:56,200 Speaker 2: a big, splashy story and like MIT Technology Review or 823 00:40:56,200 --> 00:40:57,920 Speaker 2: something like that, being like all New York Times be like, 824 00:40:57,920 --> 00:40:59,759 Speaker 2: oh look at this, look at that, look at all things, 825 00:40:59,800 --> 00:41:02,280 Speaker 2: and the like, Yeah, we're just using some people somewhere 826 00:41:02,360 --> 00:41:05,200 Speaker 2: in a place and they will make it. And in 827 00:41:05,239 --> 00:41:07,600 Speaker 2: the War Street Journal story as well, they showed sketches 828 00:41:08,040 --> 00:41:11,880 Speaker 2: that would then be turned into AI. I just this 829 00:41:12,040 --> 00:41:15,720 Speaker 2: feels like a death rattle far more than something terribly scary, 830 00:41:15,760 --> 00:41:18,040 Speaker 2: And I understand film TP people are likely a bit scared, 831 00:41:18,040 --> 00:41:20,919 Speaker 2: but it's like they're using out of the country studios. 832 00:41:21,320 --> 00:41:23,920 Speaker 2: They're try that. Of course, I just assume they're skipping 833 00:41:24,000 --> 00:41:26,440 Speaker 2: union stuff because this is all they do. It's like 834 00:41:26,680 --> 00:41:28,960 Speaker 2: this is the best they can squeak out years in 835 00:41:29,160 --> 00:41:32,760 Speaker 2: fucking how is this? And it's like a boring looking 836 00:41:33,160 --> 00:41:36,640 Speaker 2: children's thing, I guess with a name from two thousand 837 00:41:36,680 --> 00:41:37,040 Speaker 2: and one. 838 00:41:37,360 --> 00:41:40,279 Speaker 3: Oh, it does have the producers or writers who worked 839 00:41:40,320 --> 00:41:43,680 Speaker 3: on Paddington and Peru apparently, So what a. 840 00:41:43,640 --> 00:41:46,399 Speaker 2: Movie about a criminal a sequel to a movie about 841 00:41:46,400 --> 00:41:50,360 Speaker 2: a criminal who unfairly attacked you? Grun No, sorry, I 842 00:41:50,360 --> 00:41:51,879 Speaker 2: mean then this is the question of. 843 00:41:51,880 --> 00:41:55,400 Speaker 4: You know where in the Uber analogy is this is 844 00:41:55,560 --> 00:42:00,360 Speaker 4: this you know Uber's failed expansions where they tried different 845 00:42:00,400 --> 00:42:04,440 Speaker 4: models overseas, or is this Uber returning home where they 846 00:42:04,480 --> 00:42:07,400 Speaker 4: take the lessons from overseas or they use those overseas 847 00:42:07,400 --> 00:42:09,879 Speaker 4: things to buy them a bit more time to then 848 00:42:10,000 --> 00:42:11,480 Speaker 4: subsidize operations. 849 00:42:11,560 --> 00:42:15,120 Speaker 2: Here is my comparison, and this is the drone deliveries. 850 00:42:15,800 --> 00:42:18,360 Speaker 2: This is the drone deliveries. It's the Amazon drone deliveries. 851 00:42:18,400 --> 00:42:20,520 Speaker 2: Great job, Casey and Kevin several years ago talk about 852 00:42:20,520 --> 00:42:23,960 Speaker 2: the Amazon drone deliveries and never fucking happened. Mate. It's 853 00:42:24,400 --> 00:42:26,319 Speaker 2: hilarious as well because it is the same thing. It's like, 854 00:42:26,560 --> 00:42:29,279 Speaker 2: we cobbled together this. It sucked. It took so much money. 855 00:42:29,320 --> 00:42:32,080 Speaker 2: It's horribly inefficient. It sucks. We hate it, you hate it, 856 00:42:32,080 --> 00:42:33,880 Speaker 2: the customers hate it. We hate we hate doing this, 857 00:42:34,000 --> 00:42:37,280 Speaker 2: but we did it. M M toada And it's okay, 858 00:42:37,560 --> 00:42:41,080 Speaker 2: Well you sure prove that, do you? Wort Alison. It's like, yeah, 859 00:42:41,080 --> 00:42:42,959 Speaker 2: we use the power of AI to hire a bunch 860 00:42:43,000 --> 00:42:45,000 Speaker 2: of people to do all the real work, because you 861 00:42:45,040 --> 00:42:47,880 Speaker 2: can't trust this to work. It does not work. 862 00:42:47,960 --> 00:42:50,160 Speaker 3: When I saw a headline for an AI movie, I 863 00:42:50,280 --> 00:42:52,759 Speaker 3: was like, it's it's gonna be awful. Yeah, it's gonna 864 00:42:52,840 --> 00:42:54,520 Speaker 3: like writing a movie is hard. 865 00:42:54,600 --> 00:42:56,600 Speaker 2: Well wait a minute. Also, this is the other thing 866 00:42:56,640 --> 00:42:59,160 Speaker 2: of Oh my god, how are they gonna lip sync 867 00:42:59,239 --> 00:43:02,640 Speaker 2: this shit? How do you live sing this? You can't generate, 868 00:43:03,040 --> 00:43:05,919 Speaker 2: you can't generate the same frame. How are they gonna 869 00:43:06,120 --> 00:43:08,440 Speaker 2: Are they gonna go in and post edit it with humans? 870 00:43:08,480 --> 00:43:12,120 Speaker 2: I assume at this point how much you actually relying 871 00:43:12,160 --> 00:43:13,239 Speaker 2: on AI for. 872 00:43:13,880 --> 00:43:15,120 Speaker 3: It's very unclear. 873 00:43:15,880 --> 00:43:18,120 Speaker 2: That's just it all fits. It feels like being at 874 00:43:18,120 --> 00:43:19,880 Speaker 2: a party where everyone's pissed themselves. 875 00:43:20,680 --> 00:43:25,520 Speaker 3: It does feel like some next level like young propaganda. Yeah, 876 00:43:25,560 --> 00:43:28,960 Speaker 3: like if they can get kids to enjoy whatever this 877 00:43:29,520 --> 00:43:32,920 Speaker 3: monstrous movie is going to be, then maybe there's like 878 00:43:33,239 --> 00:43:36,600 Speaker 3: a longer term brand play for open Ai as a 879 00:43:36,800 --> 00:43:38,920 Speaker 3: warm and cuddly but safe for children. 880 00:43:39,040 --> 00:43:42,400 Speaker 2: The thing is French and Korean companies have already already 881 00:43:42,400 --> 00:43:45,200 Speaker 2: been doing slot based three D shows. I don't mean 882 00:43:45,760 --> 00:43:49,240 Speaker 2: the famous one from the career K pop demon Hutness, 883 00:43:49,239 --> 00:43:51,759 Speaker 2: which is apparently very good. I've not watched it, and 884 00:43:51,920 --> 00:43:54,399 Speaker 2: please don't kill me. I'm not attacking that. I'm talking 885 00:43:54,400 --> 00:43:56,920 Speaker 2: about there is a gluttony of like very cheap kids 886 00:43:56,960 --> 00:43:58,880 Speaker 2: three D kids shows, and they've been around for decades 887 00:43:59,000 --> 00:44:01,399 Speaker 2: because you can do this on the cheap. Now you've 888 00:44:01,440 --> 00:44:04,920 Speaker 2: already another thing where the Uber model made sense as 889 00:44:04,960 --> 00:44:07,320 Speaker 2: long as you didn't count the costs, which is, yeah, 890 00:44:07,360 --> 00:44:10,000 Speaker 2: this is a way of getting people around that become 891 00:44:10,040 --> 00:44:13,200 Speaker 2: dependent on because it's useful. This is like we have 892 00:44:13,280 --> 00:44:17,360 Speaker 2: found an extremely expensive and annoying way to do something 893 00:44:17,560 --> 00:44:19,640 Speaker 2: that we already have a cheap alternative to do. It's 894 00:44:19,680 --> 00:44:22,120 Speaker 2: not like there was a cheap, a cheap, reliable cab 895 00:44:22,200 --> 00:44:24,799 Speaker 2: service that Uber replaced there was a slow shit cab 896 00:44:24,880 --> 00:44:28,160 Speaker 2: service that Uber replaced everywhere, and it's like, is it 897 00:44:28,239 --> 00:44:30,880 Speaker 2: a good company? Is it horrible to work us? Yes? 898 00:44:30,920 --> 00:44:33,640 Speaker 2: But does it work? Yes? This is we're going to 899 00:44:33,680 --> 00:44:36,520 Speaker 2: automate everything with the power of AI, other than labor, 900 00:44:37,920 --> 00:44:39,000 Speaker 2: other than stuff. 901 00:44:40,040 --> 00:44:42,960 Speaker 3: That's where the AI story starts to overlap again with Crypto, 902 00:44:43,239 --> 00:44:48,120 Speaker 3: where at least with Uber you understand what you're getting 903 00:44:48,160 --> 00:44:51,160 Speaker 3: as a consumer, and then with AI you're kind of like, 904 00:44:51,480 --> 00:44:53,640 Speaker 3: I don't really know what this is. I don't know 905 00:44:53,680 --> 00:44:56,800 Speaker 3: what problem it's solving. It's like a solution in search 906 00:44:56,880 --> 00:45:01,279 Speaker 3: of a problem. And that was Crypto's same bag. It's 907 00:45:01,400 --> 00:45:04,760 Speaker 3: just like, oh, we invented this cool new alternative money system. 908 00:45:05,160 --> 00:45:08,680 Speaker 2: Why the thing is with Crypto is they always had 909 00:45:08,719 --> 00:45:10,960 Speaker 2: a plan, which sucks. I really should have seen it coming. 910 00:45:11,040 --> 00:45:13,120 Speaker 2: I was not smart enough at the time. It was 911 00:45:13,120 --> 00:45:15,320 Speaker 2: they always wanted to just get embedded in the financial 912 00:45:15,360 --> 00:45:18,279 Speaker 2: system and then just turn the funny money into real money. Hey, 913 00:45:18,280 --> 00:45:19,960 Speaker 2: I doesn't have that. There is no way to turn 914 00:45:20,000 --> 00:45:22,759 Speaker 2: this into new You can't just generate new money. That's 915 00:45:22,800 --> 00:45:25,640 Speaker 2: what Crypto did and it fucking sucks. And by the way, 916 00:45:25,800 --> 00:45:28,000 Speaker 2: the next Crypto crash is going to wash out some 917 00:45:28,120 --> 00:45:31,040 Speaker 2: real like it's gonna really fuck people up. I don't 918 00:45:31,080 --> 00:45:34,560 Speaker 2: think people realize that SBF two, who at this point 919 00:45:34,600 --> 00:45:37,200 Speaker 2: might just be SBF Like if he just gets pardoned 920 00:45:37,200 --> 00:45:39,440 Speaker 2: and comes back, Honestly, if he comes back and does 921 00:45:39,440 --> 00:45:41,960 Speaker 2: it again, no one, no one can complain. 922 00:45:42,040 --> 00:45:43,560 Speaker 4: I'm going to the last clove. I've got to go 923 00:45:43,600 --> 00:45:46,799 Speaker 4: in the hyperbolic time chamber. I joined the fight just 924 00:45:46,840 --> 00:45:48,479 Speaker 4: so I can put him in cuffs. 925 00:45:48,480 --> 00:45:51,080 Speaker 2: You're going to put Sam Backman free back in cuffs, Yes, 926 00:45:51,719 --> 00:45:55,239 Speaker 2: Sam Altman free would be good. It's it's just I 927 00:45:55,239 --> 00:45:57,239 Speaker 2: don't see an end point for this. I don't see 928 00:45:57,360 --> 00:46:00,360 Speaker 2: everyone's that, even the boosters at this point, they're like, 929 00:46:00,360 --> 00:46:03,920 Speaker 2: and then it will be powerful. When how what are 930 00:46:03,920 --> 00:46:06,239 Speaker 2: you seeing that even tells you this. I don't even 931 00:46:06,280 --> 00:46:07,360 Speaker 2: want to fight. Just tell me. 932 00:46:07,680 --> 00:46:10,840 Speaker 3: I do think there's so there's just so much money 933 00:46:11,480 --> 00:46:13,799 Speaker 3: behind it, and there's so many people who've invested. I 934 00:46:13,840 --> 00:46:17,120 Speaker 3: was listening to a VC guy get interviewed on the 935 00:46:17,120 --> 00:46:19,400 Speaker 3: Odd Lots podcast, and I can't remember his name, so 936 00:46:19,480 --> 00:46:23,440 Speaker 3: I apologize, But he was talking about how all these founders, 937 00:46:23,520 --> 00:46:26,400 Speaker 3: like all these smaller startups that are getting in on 938 00:46:26,440 --> 00:46:29,839 Speaker 3: the AI game. All these founders have kind of been 939 00:46:29,920 --> 00:46:32,560 Speaker 3: raised with this idea of Silicon Valley and what it 940 00:46:32,600 --> 00:46:35,880 Speaker 3: will bring you, and it's life changing amounts of wealth 941 00:46:36,280 --> 00:46:38,520 Speaker 3: and when you have enough people, and like the vcs 942 00:46:38,520 --> 00:46:41,319 Speaker 3: are part of that, the actual tech startups are part 943 00:46:41,360 --> 00:46:45,040 Speaker 3: of that. Stanford and like kind of the whole ethos 944 00:46:45,080 --> 00:46:48,440 Speaker 3: of the of the valley is like, if you just 945 00:46:48,560 --> 00:46:51,279 Speaker 3: keep going and work hard enough, you can have generational 946 00:46:51,320 --> 00:46:54,239 Speaker 3: wealth and that is a very powerful force. And I 947 00:46:54,280 --> 00:46:57,280 Speaker 3: feel like I think we're going to be seeing AI 948 00:46:57,560 --> 00:47:00,439 Speaker 3: kind of hype last longer than we have and other 949 00:47:00,560 --> 00:47:05,680 Speaker 3: previous bubbles and tech cycles, in part because the potential 950 00:47:05,719 --> 00:47:09,200 Speaker 3: for the wealth is outstanding and it's like nothing we've 951 00:47:09,200 --> 00:47:09,680 Speaker 3: ever seen. 952 00:47:09,760 --> 00:47:12,480 Speaker 2: But that's the thing. You're completely right, except AI has 953 00:47:12,480 --> 00:47:14,440 Speaker 2: one problem, which is all the companies lose a shit 954 00:47:14,520 --> 00:47:16,680 Speaker 2: ton of money and no one's selling, no one is 955 00:47:16,680 --> 00:47:19,680 Speaker 2: buying that. There's been like three acquisitions. There's one to AMD, 956 00:47:19,840 --> 00:47:23,120 Speaker 2: one to end Video, one to a public company called Nice, 957 00:47:23,680 --> 00:47:26,040 Speaker 2: which sold the customer It was an AI cognitive I 958 00:47:26,080 --> 00:47:28,120 Speaker 2: think they were called. It was like an AI customer 959 00:47:28,160 --> 00:47:30,640 Speaker 2: service thing. Either never really seem that good anyway, But 960 00:47:31,360 --> 00:47:32,960 Speaker 2: that whole thing is true. And I think that that's 961 00:47:32,960 --> 00:47:36,440 Speaker 2: what people and I think that the myth of you 962 00:47:36,440 --> 00:47:38,600 Speaker 2: can just use AI to spin up a startup quickly 963 00:47:38,640 --> 00:47:41,520 Speaker 2: as well has kind of gone into has kind of 964 00:47:41,560 --> 00:47:44,520 Speaker 2: fueled that myth us as well. But the problem is 965 00:47:44,920 --> 00:47:48,239 Speaker 2: this is so different because the whole point of silicon Bag, 966 00:47:48,280 --> 00:47:50,160 Speaker 2: the whole thing where you can just move there and 967 00:47:50,160 --> 00:47:53,480 Speaker 2: start a startup, is because it didn't cost ruinous amounts 968 00:47:53,480 --> 00:47:56,280 Speaker 2: of money to start one. You didn't get three million 969 00:47:56,320 --> 00:47:58,560 Speaker 2: dollars from a VC and expect to spend two and 970 00:47:58,560 --> 00:48:02,040 Speaker 2: a half million of that on compute. You were like, Okay, 971 00:48:02,080 --> 00:48:05,360 Speaker 2: we're gonna we're gonna have to bootstrap a little bit further. 972 00:48:05,440 --> 00:48:07,279 Speaker 2: We've just got a little bit of venture capital. We're 973 00:48:07,280 --> 00:48:10,160 Speaker 2: gonna go this far. This is like every step of 974 00:48:10,200 --> 00:48:13,160 Speaker 2: the way, this cost increases massively. It used to be 975 00:48:13,200 --> 00:48:16,480 Speaker 2: it was sales and marketing and just people. AI is 976 00:48:16,680 --> 00:48:20,839 Speaker 2: people plus compute plus marketing plus this plus that I think, 977 00:48:21,080 --> 00:48:23,920 Speaker 2: you know, perplexity. The AI search engine spent one hundred 978 00:48:23,920 --> 00:48:26,120 Speaker 2: and sixty four percent of their revenue in twenty twenty 979 00:48:26,120 --> 00:48:29,160 Speaker 2: four just on compute and aws like, it's like, this 980 00:48:29,280 --> 00:48:34,279 Speaker 2: is not this whole generational wealthing. I fully agree it's 981 00:48:34,320 --> 00:48:37,200 Speaker 2: what they're using to sell it. I just don't think 982 00:48:37,239 --> 00:48:41,319 Speaker 2: it's gonna work. And it's scary because this could have 983 00:48:41,520 --> 00:48:43,600 Speaker 2: the wide thing, and I really haven't talked about this enough. 984 00:48:43,920 --> 00:48:46,120 Speaker 2: The wider problem is as well, is all of these 985 00:48:46,160 --> 00:48:48,320 Speaker 2: people who went to Silicon Valley raised all this money 986 00:48:48,719 --> 00:48:51,879 Speaker 2: or have pretty much raised to sell companies that will 987 00:48:51,880 --> 00:48:53,920 Speaker 2: never sell, that they can never take public because they've 988 00:48:53,880 --> 00:48:56,200 Speaker 2: barn too much money, they don't really have great user 989 00:48:56,200 --> 00:48:59,359 Speaker 2: bases because they don't really have those, and so they're 990 00:48:59,360 --> 00:49:01,000 Speaker 2: just gonna sit there. And then you've got a bunch 991 00:49:01,040 --> 00:49:03,280 Speaker 2: of VC money tied up in that that will never exit, 992 00:49:03,320 --> 00:49:05,840 Speaker 2: and a bunch of limited partner money that will never exit. 993 00:49:06,800 --> 00:49:09,800 Speaker 2: I think that there is an entirely separate bubble building 994 00:49:10,960 --> 00:49:13,359 Speaker 2: that when that bust is going to, the depression within 995 00:49:13,480 --> 00:49:16,240 Speaker 2: Silicon value is going to be insane. It's already pretty gnolly, 996 00:49:16,560 --> 00:49:18,359 Speaker 2: but I think it's like thirty three percent of bench 997 00:49:18,440 --> 00:49:22,760 Speaker 2: capital when it's a AI last year. It's like, eventually 998 00:49:22,760 --> 00:49:25,040 Speaker 2: people are going to realize there's no exit for anyone. 999 00:49:25,120 --> 00:49:27,799 Speaker 2: And I don't know what that does. I mean, it 1000 00:49:27,840 --> 00:49:30,600 Speaker 2: will piss off limited partners. The money that comes to 1001 00:49:30,680 --> 00:49:32,120 Speaker 2: VCS is just not going to be there. 1002 00:49:32,480 --> 00:49:36,160 Speaker 4: Well, so then that's the question, right, because venture capital 1003 00:49:36,320 --> 00:49:42,640 Speaker 4: encourages on one level overvaluing because you need to figure 1004 00:49:42,640 --> 00:49:44,680 Speaker 4: out a way to make more money than what you 1005 00:49:44,760 --> 00:49:47,840 Speaker 4: put in on the exit within acquisition or some merger. Yeah, 1006 00:49:47,880 --> 00:49:51,880 Speaker 4: but on another level, you're also working within a network 1007 00:49:51,920 --> 00:49:54,839 Speaker 4: trying to enrich yourself and your friends, or trying to 1008 00:49:54,880 --> 00:50:00,600 Speaker 4: build the infrastructure for future startups, portfolio options that you 1009 00:50:00,600 --> 00:50:03,480 Speaker 4: and your friends make to come in and make money, whether. 1010 00:50:03,320 --> 00:50:06,160 Speaker 2: You're building a platform the other people can invest in bits. 1011 00:50:05,960 --> 00:50:09,280 Speaker 4: Of and so you know, on one level, I really, 1012 00:50:09,320 --> 00:50:11,879 Speaker 4: I really do. I agree that there's not really much 1013 00:50:11,920 --> 00:50:15,239 Speaker 4: of an exit ramp if there's actually no revenue and 1014 00:50:15,320 --> 00:50:17,600 Speaker 4: no profits. But then also i'd be curious, like do 1015 00:50:17,640 --> 00:50:19,480 Speaker 4: you think they're going to try to ram these things 1016 00:50:19,480 --> 00:50:21,239 Speaker 4: through similar to like what we saw with Corey Weve 1017 00:50:21,280 --> 00:50:23,279 Speaker 4: right where you know, like you you talked, I think 1018 00:50:23,400 --> 00:50:27,920 Speaker 4: extensively about ways in which the financials there do not 1019 00:50:27,960 --> 00:50:30,759 Speaker 4: actually make sense if you're interested in a company that 1020 00:50:30,840 --> 00:50:32,600 Speaker 4: actually has the capital to do what it's going to 1021 00:50:32,640 --> 00:50:35,480 Speaker 4: say is going to do, which is provide gpu compute 1022 00:50:35,520 --> 00:50:38,720 Speaker 4: to everybody, and even though it has such a central 1023 00:50:38,840 --> 00:50:43,280 Speaker 4: role in this ecosystem. It can't make profits that are 1024 00:50:43,560 --> 00:50:45,960 Speaker 4: you know, that justify the capital that's getting it has 1025 00:50:46,080 --> 00:50:49,680 Speaker 4: odious and burd burden some debt that should be a 1026 00:50:49,800 --> 00:50:53,359 Speaker 4: massive red flag and it might be you know, round tripping, right, yeah, 1027 00:50:53,520 --> 00:50:55,719 Speaker 4: but this is supposed to be like the darling of 1028 00:50:55,760 --> 00:50:58,399 Speaker 4: the sector and it and it got pushed through. Part 1029 00:50:58,440 --> 00:50:59,880 Speaker 4: of me feels like because of. 1030 00:51:00,080 --> 00:51:05,800 Speaker 2: Of I mean Invation and Video and Magneto and Magnetar 1031 00:51:05,880 --> 00:51:08,920 Speaker 2: Capital of course famous for the CDOs. Yeah, right, start 1032 00:51:08,920 --> 00:51:12,279 Speaker 2: they're back. But with core Weave, they pushed it through 1033 00:51:12,280 --> 00:51:14,720 Speaker 2: onto the markets. But that doesn't mean it can't die. 1034 00:51:14,760 --> 00:51:15,960 Speaker 4: Right, Well, so that's the thing. 1035 00:51:16,040 --> 00:51:17,200 Speaker 2: I do you think. 1036 00:51:17,040 --> 00:51:19,359 Speaker 4: That it's possible that they'd be successful in pushing it 1037 00:51:19,360 --> 00:51:21,400 Speaker 4: onto markets but it dies because I do, Yes, I 1038 00:51:21,400 --> 00:51:22,960 Speaker 4: feel like there will will definitely be a lot of 1039 00:51:22,960 --> 00:51:25,840 Speaker 4: investment incineration, But I also do think we're gonna have 1040 00:51:25,920 --> 00:51:27,600 Speaker 4: bags dumped on everybody. 1041 00:51:27,600 --> 00:51:29,480 Speaker 2: I think you could do it with something like core 1042 00:51:29,560 --> 00:51:32,840 Speaker 2: Weave and Lambda, which is another situation where Nvidia is 1043 00:51:32,840 --> 00:51:36,000 Speaker 2: the customer invested and also sells them the GPUs, which 1044 00:51:36,040 --> 00:51:38,520 Speaker 2: they then use as collateral to buy more GPUs using 1045 00:51:38,520 --> 00:51:41,960 Speaker 2: debt which is so good. You'll notice that there are 1046 00:51:42,000 --> 00:51:45,320 Speaker 2: no software companies going public. There's no software AI companies 1047 00:51:45,360 --> 00:51:48,000 Speaker 2: going public. Everyone thinks that open ai goes public here 1048 00:51:48,040 --> 00:51:50,400 Speaker 2: and oh they've got the market's gonna if they can 1049 00:51:50,440 --> 00:51:52,440 Speaker 2: even convert, the markets are gonna eat them for dinner. 1050 00:51:52,680 --> 00:51:57,799 Speaker 2: Oh yeah, we're gonna burn bazillions of dollars forever. No, 1051 00:51:58,000 --> 00:52:00,799 Speaker 2: they the markets didn't like Core. Weav that Core We've 1052 00:52:00,800 --> 00:52:04,160 Speaker 2: wouldn't have gone public had Nvidia not put more money in. 1053 00:52:05,120 --> 00:52:07,239 Speaker 2: Lambda is probably gonna be exactly the same, if they 1054 00:52:07,280 --> 00:52:10,399 Speaker 2: even make it. You won't see software companies because that's 1055 00:52:10,400 --> 00:52:14,800 Speaker 2: the other thing Core We've had, albeit bunches of debt assets, 1056 00:52:15,120 --> 00:52:18,919 Speaker 2: they have data centers kind of through Core Scientific God, 1057 00:52:18,920 --> 00:52:21,960 Speaker 2: I hate these fucking companies, but they don't they have 1058 00:52:22,080 --> 00:52:25,319 Speaker 2: things that they can point to in relationships, even open Ai. 1059 00:52:25,520 --> 00:52:28,840 Speaker 2: That's the thing with them, they don't. They barely have assets. 1060 00:52:29,160 --> 00:52:32,240 Speaker 2: Oracle is building their data center in Abilene with Cruso. 1061 00:52:32,600 --> 00:52:34,480 Speaker 2: They don't own any of the GPU. They have a 1062 00:52:34,480 --> 00:52:37,200 Speaker 2: few GPUs I think for research I've heard, but Microsoft 1063 00:52:37,239 --> 00:52:40,239 Speaker 2: owns most of their their infrastructure. They don't own their 1064 00:52:40,360 --> 00:52:43,319 Speaker 2: R and D well they do, but Microsoft also has 1065 00:52:43,320 --> 00:52:45,919 Speaker 2: access to that their intellectual property. Same deal. So it's 1066 00:52:45,960 --> 00:52:49,160 Speaker 2: like what actual value doesn't AI start up have? People 1067 00:52:49,200 --> 00:52:51,040 Speaker 2: always say oh, they're getting the data. They get the 1068 00:52:51,120 --> 00:52:53,080 Speaker 2: data so that the data will tell them. It's like 1069 00:52:53,120 --> 00:52:56,160 Speaker 2: what it's all that these horrible stories about, like oh, 1070 00:52:56,200 --> 00:52:58,759 Speaker 2: Dozea's got an LLM, they're doing this one. What's the 1071 00:52:58,920 --> 00:53:01,440 Speaker 2: end point? It's scaring, don't get me wrong, But and 1072 00:53:01,480 --> 00:53:05,520 Speaker 2: then what and there never is one? And I hope someone, 1073 00:53:05,640 --> 00:53:08,080 Speaker 2: I hope a AI software company goes public. I want 1074 00:53:08,080 --> 00:53:09,680 Speaker 2: to see this so bad. I want to see you 1075 00:53:09,719 --> 00:53:12,640 Speaker 2: have any idea. If you give me the open AI books, 1076 00:53:12,680 --> 00:53:15,760 Speaker 2: the anthropic books, you become the official homie better offline. 1077 00:53:15,760 --> 00:53:18,360 Speaker 2: I'll mention you on every episode. Get me these books. 1078 00:53:18,360 --> 00:53:19,920 Speaker 2: But because I think all of them are going to 1079 00:53:19,960 --> 00:53:22,279 Speaker 2: be like a dog's dinner, there's I've actually looked at 1080 00:53:22,280 --> 00:53:25,840 Speaker 2: the markets an uber uber by comparison. They did burnish 1081 00:53:25,800 --> 00:53:27,439 Speaker 2: it to the money. It's it's like twenty five billion 1082 00:53:27,480 --> 00:53:30,120 Speaker 2: between twenty nineteen twenty twenty two. A lot of that 1083 00:53:30,200 --> 00:53:32,000 Speaker 2: was on sales and R and D. It's pretty much 1084 00:53:32,000 --> 00:53:34,160 Speaker 2: group on. I think also the R and D with 1085 00:53:34,160 --> 00:53:37,799 Speaker 2: the autonomous cars, but separate problem but it's like, there 1086 00:53:37,840 --> 00:53:40,160 Speaker 2: wasn't a I can't find an example of someone that 1087 00:53:40,239 --> 00:53:45,799 Speaker 2: just annihilated fuel unless it's like planes. And I think 1088 00:53:45,840 --> 00:53:49,960 Speaker 2: we've established the use case for planes by now clear 1089 00:53:51,000 --> 00:53:54,360 Speaker 2: god Old. It's just it's all very frustrating. But you 1090 00:53:54,360 --> 00:53:55,719 Speaker 2: know what, I think I'm gonna call it there. I 1091 00:53:55,719 --> 00:53:58,200 Speaker 2: think we've had a good conversation. Allison. Where can people 1092 00:53:58,239 --> 00:53:59,240 Speaker 2: find you? 1093 00:53:59,239 --> 00:54:02,960 Speaker 3: You can find me on Blue Sky at amorrow or 1094 00:54:03,560 --> 00:54:06,840 Speaker 3: on CNN dot com slash nightcap ed. 1095 00:54:07,320 --> 00:54:09,680 Speaker 4: You can find me on Twitter at Big Black Jacobin. 1096 00:54:10,320 --> 00:54:13,120 Speaker 4: You can find me on Blue Sky on Edward and 1097 00:54:13,160 --> 00:54:16,200 Speaker 4: Guss Junior, and on substack at the Tech Bubble. 1098 00:54:16,680 --> 00:54:19,040 Speaker 2: And you can find me of course at Google dot com. 1099 00:54:19,320 --> 00:54:21,959 Speaker 2: Just type in prabagar Ragavan you'll find me. I pop 1100 00:54:22,040 --> 00:54:24,480 Speaker 2: right up. That's all me. Thank you so much for 1101 00:54:24,560 --> 00:54:27,359 Speaker 2: listening to everyone. This is my episodees are coming out 1102 00:54:27,400 --> 00:54:29,399 Speaker 2: in a weird order because I'm recording this knowing there's 1103 00:54:29,400 --> 00:54:31,120 Speaker 2: a three part of this week, but this will come 1104 00:54:31,120 --> 00:54:32,800 Speaker 2: out with a monologue of some sort. Thank you so 1105 00:54:32,880 --> 00:54:34,840 Speaker 2: much for listening everyone, of course, but he thank you 1106 00:54:34,840 --> 00:54:37,160 Speaker 2: for producing here out in New York City. And yeah, 1107 00:54:37,280 --> 00:54:38,319 Speaker 2: thanks everyone. 1108 00:54:46,360 --> 00:54:48,040 Speaker 6: Thank you for listening to Better Offline. 1109 00:54:48,160 --> 00:54:50,600 Speaker 2: The editor and composer of the Better Offline theme song 1110 00:54:50,680 --> 00:54:53,319 Speaker 2: is Matasowski. You can check out more of his music 1111 00:54:53,360 --> 00:54:56,279 Speaker 2: and audio projects at Matasowski dot com. 1112 00:54:56,440 --> 00:54:59,839 Speaker 6: M A T T O S O W S K I. 1113 00:55:01,400 --> 00:55:03,680 Speaker 2: You can email me at easy at better offline dot 1114 00:55:03,719 --> 00:55:05,960 Speaker 2: com or visit better offline dot com to find more 1115 00:55:05,960 --> 00:55:09,359 Speaker 2: podcast links and of course, my newsletter. I also really 1116 00:55:09,400 --> 00:55:11,680 Speaker 2: recommend you go to chat dot where's youreaed dot at 1117 00:55:11,680 --> 00:55:14,200 Speaker 2: to visit the discord, and go to our slash. 1118 00:55:13,880 --> 00:55:15,760 Speaker 6: Better Offline to check out our reddit. 1119 00:55:16,520 --> 00:55:17,880 Speaker 2: Thank you so much for listening. 1120 00:55:18,719 --> 00:55:21,400 Speaker 1: Better Offline is a production of cool Zone Media. 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