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Speaker 1: You're listening to the Buck Sexton Show podcast, let make

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Speaker 1: sure you subscribe to the podcast on the iHeartRadio app

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Speaker 1: or wherever you get your podcasts.

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Speaker 2: So is China going to invade Taiwan? This is obviously

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Speaker 2: something that I'm spending a lot of time thinking about

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Speaker 2: right now because I just got back from a week

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Speaker 2: in Taiwan. I interviewed the president President Lai and that

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Speaker 2: now has been picked up by the international media. So

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Speaker 2: a lot of eyeballs on this issue, which is one

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Speaker 2: of the main reasons of course I wanted to go.

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Speaker 2: But I sat down with the Vice President of Taiwan,

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Speaker 2: the National Security Council, national Security Advisor. I went to

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Speaker 2: I'm going to answer the question it is trying to

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Speaker 2: get invade, but first I went to a military basis

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Speaker 2: either high mars artillery system really more like a rocket system,

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Speaker 2: but they call it an artillery system. I saw a

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Speaker 2: drone manufacturing facility. Of course, drones very important in military

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Speaker 2: applications and all kinds of defense of the future. Quite honestly,

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Speaker 2: it's going to be tech and AI related. I saw

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Speaker 2: a boat manufacturing facility that on the one hand makes

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Speaker 2: traditional all kinds of boats, but traditional navy boats, coastguard vessels,

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Speaker 2: but not very big ones, I think less than one

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Speaker 2: hundred feet only. But they are making speedboats that have

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Speaker 2: an explosive payload, that are autonomous, that are drone speedboats

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Speaker 2: with a big boom in them, or that will go boom.

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Speaker 2: That was really interesting. Went to TSMC, which is the

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Speaker 2: chip manufacturer that plays a huge role not just in

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Speaker 2: the global economy and artificial intelligence, but plays a very

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Speaker 2: substantial role in the whole national security situation.

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Speaker 1: So I got a very good overview.

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Speaker 2: And thank you to my friend Stephen Yates, my buddy

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Speaker 2: now of almost fifteen years, who set all of this up.

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Speaker 2: He's at the Heritage Foundation. He was my guru, my

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Speaker 2: shirpa through all of this. And my two brothers, Mason

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Speaker 2: and Keats came. They I just wanted them to be

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Speaker 2: there and see Taiwan and and to be able to

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Speaker 2: soak up as much of this information as they could.

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Speaker 2: And you know, they're very involved in their own ways

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Speaker 2: in well let's just say commerce and politics and how

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Speaker 2: Taiwan plays into all that. So is China going to invade?

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Speaker 2: I think the answer, unfortunately is yes. So then the

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Speaker 2: next question is when now.

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Speaker 1: There I can tell you this.

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Speaker 2: I have spoken to a whole range of experts on

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Speaker 2: what's going to happen here, and they disagree about basically

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Speaker 2: everything in terms of when this is going to happen.

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Speaker 1: Is the invasion going to happen?

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Speaker 2: Different experts, and I'm talking about people in the DoD

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Speaker 2: here in the States, I'm talking about people in the

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Speaker 2: national security apparatus in Taiwan and outside experts. I get

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Speaker 2: different answers from everybody on this stuff because nobody can

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Speaker 2: predict the future, and there's a lot of variables here

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Speaker 2: for anyone who was wondering, by the way, before I

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Speaker 2: dive into some of this, this back and forth on

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Speaker 2: Taiwan something that I think is important. If you're saying, oh,

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Speaker 2: I don't care, or why does this affect me? If

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Speaker 2: we wake up and Taiwan Taipei the capital, it's being

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Speaker 2: pummelines missiles to soften up their defenses in advance of

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Speaker 2: a blockade of the islands, so ships preventing other ships

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Speaker 2: from getting the area, and an amphibious invasion with massive

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Speaker 2: Chinese forces deployed. The stock market is going to crash

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Speaker 2: like you've never seen. It will be trillions of dollars

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Speaker 2: of wealth erased overnight. You will see a global supply

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Speaker 2: chain disruption of the likes of which we have not seen,

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Speaker 2: I think, worse than what you even saw in the

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Speaker 2: early days of COVID. It will be an absolute mess

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Speaker 2: for everybody. If you live in Oklahoma, your iPhone relies

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Speaker 2: on chips made in Taiwan, and this is the point

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Speaker 2: that's so critical. They can't be made anywhere else. So

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Speaker 2: that's why on just a basic day to day level,

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Speaker 2: this really matters. So I think that everybody should first

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Speaker 2: put it in that context. I also want to say

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Speaker 2: my well, I'll get into what I think should happen,

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Speaker 2: But why do I believe, after talking to all these

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Speaker 2: advisors and all these different individuals, why do I think

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Speaker 2: that China is going to invade? Well, for one thing,

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Speaker 2: they say they're going to do it. I know they've

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Speaker 2: said that for a long time. But Shi Jinping is

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Speaker 2: a full blown dictator, is a very scary individual, and

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Speaker 2: he has set a date for this of twenty twenty seven.

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Speaker 2: People keep saying he won't do it while Trump's in office,

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Speaker 2: and to that, I say, well, why, because it's going

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Speaker 2: to be so much easier under a possible JD vance administration.

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Speaker 1: I don't think that's the case.

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Speaker 2: So also, is Trump really that favorable toward the defensive

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Speaker 2: time one, It's not really known where Trump is on

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Speaker 2: this now. I think that's by design. It's in a

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Speaker 2: way a continuation of the official US position, which is

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Speaker 2: strategic ambiguity.

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Speaker 1: Will we do it? Will we not do it? Well,

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Speaker 1: we'll see.

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Speaker 2: And that's the intentional position. I've never seen this anywhere

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Speaker 2: else in the US foreign policy, certainly not as explicitly

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Speaker 2: put out this way. That is the intentional position of

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Speaker 2: the United States government on this, and it has been

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Speaker 2: for a long time. Will we won't We we'll see.

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Speaker 2: But also, China is in no danger when you start

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Speaker 2: to so that they've said they're going to do it.

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Speaker 2: China is in no danger of invasion or military class

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Speaker 2: with any of its neighbors. You know, it's got India

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Speaker 2: on one side, Russia on the other. They're not they're

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Speaker 2: not doing anything. Then you have the vast step the

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Speaker 2: sort of grassland super highway that the Mongols used to

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Speaker 2: conquer much of the known world, you know, a long

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Speaker 2: time ago. That's not They're not going to get invaded

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Speaker 2: by any of the stands. You know, Kazakhstan is not

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Speaker 2: about to invade China. You know, turkmenis Stan, all these places,

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Speaker 2: they're not about to So we know that that's not

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Speaker 2: the end. Japan just wants to do its own thing.

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Speaker 2: There's no invasion threat of China. Why is it olding

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Speaker 2: up its military in this massive way, an unprecedented build up,

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Speaker 2: churning out so many ships, churning out so many missiles.

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Speaker 2: There's only one goal that this can have because the

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Speaker 2: country no one would dream of invading, China has a

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Speaker 2: billion people, all right, It's just it's not even on

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Speaker 2: the table for anyone. So this is all geared toward

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Speaker 2: taking Taiwan, and there's a deep seated need. Remember that

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Speaker 2: the Chinese the CCP of the Chinese Communist Party, and

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Speaker 2: I really recommend people read Mao. The Untold Story is

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Speaker 2: the one that I really really love. Jun Chang and

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Speaker 2: John Halliday, I think, are the authors that it explains

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Speaker 2: to you that Mao is just the most evil human being,

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Speaker 2: maybe certainly in modern history. I don't know if anybody

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Speaker 2: could be more evil in terms of the death and

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Speaker 2: the sadism and the murderous nature.

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Speaker 1: Of his policies.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean Hitler's horrible Stalin's horrible, Mao has them

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Speaker 2: all beat in terms of numbers, raw numbers of people

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Speaker 2: who were killed murdered by the state in what a

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Speaker 2: lot of times through starvation. It's a really horrible way

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Speaker 2: to go. So now is an evil SOB and he

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Speaker 2: is the founder of the CCP, and now Shijin Ping

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Speaker 2: has that mantle. Hi Jin Ping has taken over this role.

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Speaker 2: So there's reason, I think, for extremely high levels of

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Speaker 2: concern right now for an invasion of Taiwan. And I'll

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Speaker 2: get into how I think that invasion looks here in

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Speaker 2: Paradigm Press. Okay, so what do I think an invasion

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Speaker 2: looks like? I had these conversations again with people of

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Speaker 2: all different all different perspectives, who are very focused on

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Speaker 2: this issue, and in many cases have access to the

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Speaker 2: classified the high side, whether Taiwanese or American version of it,

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Speaker 2: and everybody has different answers, so no one knows what

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Speaker 2: the answer is.

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Speaker 1: But I think it's most likely that if.

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Speaker 2: China was to do this, you would see a combination

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Speaker 2: of blockade in blitzkrieg. The blockade would probably start with

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Speaker 2: some pretense of there's an issue that we're solving in

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Speaker 2: the area. There's some problem that we the Chinese military

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Speaker 2: are addressing, so we're going to do that, and we're

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Speaker 2: not allowing any other ships in the area. So in

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Speaker 2: a sense, they'd be daring Taiwan to do something about them.

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Speaker 2: And then the blitzkreen would be the the the missiles,

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Speaker 2: which they're They're just gonna try to pummel Taiwan with

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Speaker 2: missiles and then soften things up for the invasion force

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Speaker 2: to land. And I think their goal would be to

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Speaker 2: finish off this conflict before the US could even make

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Speaker 2: a realistic effort, if it would choose to do so,

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Speaker 2: if it would choose to do so in defense of Taiwan.

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Speaker 2: So they finish it off, they say, look, we've taken

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Speaker 2: the island. Guys, this is ours one China policy internal matter.

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Speaker 2: This is from the CCP perspective, you really want to

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Speaker 2: lose an aircraft carrier two to our our anti ship missiles. Again,

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Speaker 2: from the Chinese perspective, you really want to lose Americans

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Speaker 2: in this fight, very very compelling, because we don't want

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Speaker 2: to lose Americans in somebody else's fight, right, So this

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Speaker 2: you start to that that's their plan and if they

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Speaker 2: can get there, if they believe they can get there,

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Speaker 2: I think they're going to launch an invasion. And as

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Speaker 2: I've said, this is hugely problematic for the rest of

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Speaker 2: the world for two reasons. One the massive economic hit that.

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Speaker 1: This will create, and you're.

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Speaker 2: Going to have, like I said, the tech economy will

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Speaker 2: come to a screeching holt. Now this might go on

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Speaker 2: for weeks. This isn't just like a twenty four hour thing.

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Speaker 2: So the tech economy all of a sudden, you're going

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Speaker 2: to see real pain and pandemonium around that.

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Speaker 1: So that's one part of it.

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Speaker 2: And then the other part of it is we can't

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Speaker 2: allow China to have full control of the fabs, the

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Speaker 2: manufacturing facilities for the most advanced microchips in the world,

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Speaker 2: and that's what they would have if they took control

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Speaker 2: of Taiwan.

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Speaker 1: The CCP would.

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Speaker 2: Without question if they took over. Now there's questions about

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Speaker 2: would there be intentional destruction of these facilities by time

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Speaker 2: when stakeholders there's a lot of there's so many variables.

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Speaker 2: This is why everybody has different opinions. But if the

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Speaker 2: CCP was able to take control and then run these factories,

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Speaker 2: and you know in a matter of time they probably

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Speaker 2: would be able to figure that out, they will have

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Speaker 2: a stranglehold on the global tech economy, which affects all

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Speaker 2: of us. Remember that there's chips. There are microchips, semiconductors

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Speaker 2: in your car, in your likely in your washer dryer,

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Speaker 2: certainly in your smartphone and your laptop, in your television,

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Speaker 2: all of these things reliant chips. If China controls the

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Speaker 2: chips that the whole world relies on, think about the

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Speaker 2: leverage that gives them, and think about the counterintelligence.

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Speaker 1: Risks that that creates for us.

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Speaker 2: So we're all going to be buying our most sensitive chips,

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Speaker 2: because that's going to include chips used for military application. Everybody,

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Speaker 2: we're gonna be buying all that from China. So that's

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Speaker 2: where you see this is a huge, a huge problem,

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Speaker 2: a huge challenge, and why I think everybody has to

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Speaker 2: look at this. I get there's a boy cried wolf feeling.

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Speaker 2: Oh the South China Sea, the Gray Zone. Ships are

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Speaker 2: ramming each other. They're arguing over the sen Kaku or

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Speaker 2: the Da Dau islands. They're arguing over this little island

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Speaker 2: chain or that, you know, fishing rights here or there. Now,

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Speaker 2: that's important stuff for those countries, but we don't really care.

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Speaker 1: Right, you're not up late at night, like who's going

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Speaker 1: to be in control of the Senkaku Islands.

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Speaker 2: But now it's about going for the big prize, which

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Speaker 2: is Taiwan. This is now a shift from the Chinese

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Speaker 2: Chaimist Party. And one of the reasons, one of the

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Speaker 2: reasons that we know this is that they have cut

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Speaker 2: off traveled to Taiwan. Almost all of it, like ninety

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Speaker 2: percent of travel from mainland China to Taiwan is gone.

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Speaker 2: That wasn't the case even five six years ago. There

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Speaker 2: was plenty of tourists coming in from China, and they've

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Speaker 2: cut off. They have no communication between the governments. None

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Speaker 2: think about that. Note they're only one hundred miles apart.

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Speaker 2: No communication from the Taiwanese government to the Chinese government

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Speaker 2: and vice versa or the you know CCP Beijing government.

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Speaker 2: And because there's Republic of there's a Republic of China,

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Speaker 2: which is Taiwan, and then there's uh, you know, Democratic

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Speaker 2: People's Republic of China or whatever I mean, there's all

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Speaker 2: these different or People's Republic of China PRC. Sorry, there's

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Speaker 2: a Democrats. I can't go all sorright, there's Democratic Republic

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Speaker 2: People's Republic of North Korea.

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Speaker 1: Right.

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Speaker 2: The longer the name and the more claims to political

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Speaker 2: legitimacy in the name the less legitimate. The regime always is,

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Speaker 2: you know that. So these are these are the factors.

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Speaker 2: But they're they're they're setting up to do this and

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Speaker 2: and I don't know, well, can they be stopped and

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Speaker 2: what would the US role in that? Bee let's talk

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Speaker 2: about that in a second. Look at the price of gold, friends,

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Speaker 2: all time high. I've been telling you all year that

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Speaker 2: gold is a sound investment, and now gold's at an

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Speaker 2: all time high. So just to be clear, we've been

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Speaker 2: talking about gold for a while on this program, and gold.

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Speaker 1: Is up, up, up, up.

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Speaker 2: The long term thesis of gold, I've believe is going

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Speaker 2: to continue over time to be up because it's a

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Speaker 2: precious metal, it holds value, and there's so much money

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Speaker 2: printing going on by governance, including our own. This is

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Speaker 2: why I think you should check out what my friends

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Speaker 2: at Birch Gold Group can.

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Speaker 1: Do for you. Birch Gold Group is who I trust.

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Speaker 2: I mean, the last time we saw this kind of

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Speaker 2: increase in the value of gold in one year's time

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Speaker 2: was nineteen seventy nine. That's what Americans had serious inflation

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Speaker 2: going on. So something something's up, my friends, and gold

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Speaker 2: is a big indicator, and gold is a safe haven.

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Speaker 2: You can still get in the door now with Birch

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Speaker 2: Gold Group's latest offers. They'll help you convert an existing IRA,

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Speaker 2: for example, or four oh one K into attack sheltered

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Speaker 2: ir gold. You don't pay a dime out of pocket.

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Speaker 2: Just text my name Buck to ninety eight ninety eight

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Speaker 2: ninety eight claim your free infocit on gold. There's no obligation,

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Speaker 2: just useful information. Text my name Buck to ninety eight

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Speaker 2: ninety eight ninety eight today.

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Speaker 1: So what do I think we should do about this?

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Speaker 2: I know that's a critical component, right, That's something that

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Speaker 2: we have to know. I'm not saying we should set

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Speaker 2: up US military bases in Taiwan. I'm not saying we

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Speaker 2: should do the fighting for them. They told me very explicitly,

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Speaker 2: the president of that country and many many other officials

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Speaker 2: told me they will fight, and they will fight tooth

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Speaker 2: and nail to defend their sovereignty, to defend their island.

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Speaker 2: Now there's some skepticism from people in the American policy

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Speaker 2: intelligency about this. I'm just telling you they they were

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Speaker 2: as full throated and clear about this as they could be.

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Speaker 2: They say they will fight and I think that for

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Speaker 2: the leadership for a lot of people, they look at

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Speaker 2: what happened to Hong Kong. Which, what happened to Hong Kong,

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Speaker 2: it's now been consumed by the CCP dragon, it is

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Speaker 2: now fully under the thumb of the CCP, the different

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Speaker 2: system there. Freedom and democracy gone gone, hope. I was

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Speaker 2: told by somebody who's actually tied to a very prominent

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Speaker 2: dissident who's in prison in Hong Kong now for writing

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Speaker 2: a newspaper. Essentially, I was told that the way to

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Speaker 2: describe Hong Kong now as hope is just eradicated. And

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Speaker 2: people see that and they really remember China was saying,

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Speaker 2: oh no, it's fine, it's ours, don't worry. This is

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Speaker 2: an internal matter. It'd be the same thing in Taiwan.

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Speaker 2: It would be turning that island.

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Speaker 1: Into a.

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Speaker 2: Surf a serfdom of the CCP. And people don't want that.

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Speaker 2: So I think they are willing to defend themselves, that's

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Speaker 2: my assessment. How can they, Well, this is where they

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Speaker 2: have to get asymmetric, and this is where drones and

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Speaker 2: advanced tech and things like ANDROL technology, which is very

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Speaker 2: much involved in trying to come up with new ways

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Speaker 2: to use ai and tech and manufacturing capacity. The Taiwanese

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Speaker 2: are very good at tech and manufacturing, and they're going

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Speaker 2: to have to produce and also work with partners to

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Speaker 2: produce an arsenal of self defense munitions and capabilities that

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Speaker 2: is so formidable that China just keeps on delaying, delaying, delaying,

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Speaker 2: create a perpetuation of the status quo with Taiwan by

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Speaker 2: raising the price so high that it is on indefinite

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Speaker 2: delay because China is I think the current regime is

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Speaker 2: never going to say, okay, Taiwan can do its own thing.

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Speaker 2: That's never going to happen. You'd have to have a

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Speaker 2: collapse of the CCP. But you can delay it indefinitely,

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Speaker 2: you know, you can maybe kick it out ten twenty

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Speaker 2: thirty years maybe if Taiwan really gets its capabilities in

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Speaker 2: order in China realizes that. And of course there's tremendous

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Speaker 2: amounts of spying and espionage going on, and they're they're

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Speaker 2: all kinds of there's a lot of cases actually that

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Speaker 2: the Taiwanese courts are going through about people who are

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Speaker 2: CCP moles and spies in Taiwan. So they have a

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Speaker 2: tremendous amount of intelligence collection going on against the Taiwanese,

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Speaker 2: so they have a good sense of capabilities. If they

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Speaker 2: can get their capabilities to a point where the CCP

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Speaker 2: would risk Chinese Commuist.

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Speaker 1: Party would risk disaster with the plan.

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Speaker 2: That I laid out of the of the blockade and

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Speaker 2: blitzkrieg strike, then I think that they might be able.

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Speaker 2: They might be okay, they might be able to continue

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Speaker 2: on and make their chips. And it's a wonderful country.

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Speaker 2: I mean, I really have tremendous respect for the Taiwanese.

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Speaker 2: They are a a friendly, orderly, law abiding, just just

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Speaker 2: very good, smart, impressive people. It's a great country of

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Speaker 2: great people, and I certainly think it deserves its sovereignty

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Speaker 2: and deserves to just live in peace. And that's all

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Speaker 2: they want. They just want to live in peace and

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Speaker 2: make great products for the rest of the world. But

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Speaker 2: communists have to destroy, and the CCP, even though they're

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Speaker 2: not traditional you know, Marxist Leninist, the CCP wants to

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Speaker 2: destroy and to own and to control. And I hope

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Speaker 2: that we the US, will give give the Taiwanese the

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Speaker 2: tools to do the job, help them get the tools

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Speaker 2: to do the job, because I think that's possible.

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