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Speaker 1: Welcome to the Favorites, the podcast presented by bet three

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Speaker 1: sixty five.

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Speaker 2: We are part of the Action Network.

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Speaker 1: Today is our Super Bowl fifty eight betting recap and,

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Speaker 1: by the way, our Super Bowl fifty nine matchup preview,

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Speaker 1: at least what we think it might be. I am

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Speaker 1: Chad Milman, Chief Content Officer of the Action Network. In

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Speaker 1: the spirit of the show, as I just alluded to.

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Speaker 2: Simon and I will do what we always do.

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Speaker 1: We will give you some takeaways on our leans thoughts

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Speaker 1: strategies for betting twenty twenty four NFL futures. Believe it

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Speaker 1: or not, it's never too early to start thinking about

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Speaker 1: all of that goodness. Plus, we will share our thoughts

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Speaker 1: on the big game, expected, the unexpected, the triumph's mistakes.

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Speaker 1: The last game of another NFL season is in the books.

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Speaker 1: Later in the show, will bring on our superstar who

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Speaker 1: has more stats about the greatness and what we are

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Speaker 1: actually witnessing with Patrick Mahomes Director of Research, Evan Abrams.

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Speaker 1: He's going to provide all the context we need before

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Speaker 1: we get to any of that. Let's bring in my cohes,

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Speaker 1: my bff, my companion, Michael Padre, professional Better, Simon Hunter.

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Speaker 2: Hello, Simon.

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Speaker 3: Chad, what a weekend, brother, dude.

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Speaker 1: We're going to get to it, because we freaking nailed it,

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Speaker 1: like settled on a side, settled on a lien for

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Speaker 1: the total, did not get distracted. We're going to dig

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Speaker 1: into all that lost so much more. I want to

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Speaker 1: make a small point. Something circular happened yesterday, a little

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Speaker 1: bit of a circular moment. As anyone who was listening

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Speaker 1: to the podcast knows. We have talked about Mitch Drubisky

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Speaker 1: so often when he was.

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Speaker 2: The quarterback of the Bears.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, and I would always make a point. Mitch Trubisky

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Speaker 1: was someone the Bears traded up to get. They didn't

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Speaker 1: draft Patrick Mahomes, they didn't go for Deshaun Watson in

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Speaker 1: that draft. They traded up to get Mitch Trubisky. On Monday,

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Speaker 1: the day after Patrick Mahomes won his third Super Bowl

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Speaker 1: title and third Super Bowl MVP, the only quarterback drafted

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Speaker 1: ahead of him, Mitch Trubisky in twenty seventeen, was released

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Speaker 1: by his third NFL team. Reminder, the Bears traded up

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Speaker 1: to get Mitch Trubisky number two. Overall, that felt very

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Speaker 1: full circle to me. Here we are seven years later,

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Speaker 1: we're talking about the Bears having to draft a quarterback,

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Speaker 1: mich Trubisy getting released by his thirteen within twenty four

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Speaker 1: hours of Patrick Mahomes winning his third Super Bowl.

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Speaker 3: Now you're sick in the head, Chad who talks about

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Speaker 3: mister Bisky the day after the Super Bowl? You are

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Speaker 3: truly sick in the head. Only you would bring him

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Speaker 3: up today.

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Speaker 1: So when I looked at when I looked at the

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Speaker 1: list of people drafted ahead of Patrick Mahomes, in addition

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Speaker 1: to Mitrubisky, Miles Garrett, you can explain it also drafted

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Speaker 1: that year John Ross receiver by the Bangles ahead of

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Speaker 1: Patrick Mahomes, Solomon Thomas from the Niners, Corey Davis receiver

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Speaker 1: drafted by the Titans, Leonard Fournett drafted by the Jags.

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Speaker 2: Mike Williams from the Chargers.

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Speaker 1: All of these teams in twenty seventeen probably were thinking

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Speaker 1: we need a quarterback, but they decided not to draft

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Speaker 1: Patrick Mahomes.

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Speaker 3: No, he's a miracle though no one saw this coming.

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Speaker 3: Sam is the same with Purdy, the guy who played against.

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Speaker 3: Neither of these guys you ever saw coming, even Mahomes

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Speaker 3: if you go back and watch his college career. No,

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Speaker 3: one was ever going to take him at number one,

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Speaker 3: and Chad just said it. The dude felt that pick

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Speaker 3: ten would will always be the craziest part of it.

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Speaker 3: Where it's like that team, even their I remember their

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Speaker 3: GM talking about because they had Alex Smith on the team,

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Speaker 3: everyone was attacking them. Why are you trading up to

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Speaker 3: the tenth pick over to Shawn Watson? Why are you

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Speaker 3: moving up above taking this guy above Watson who's a

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Speaker 3: national champ, And it's just crazy these guys. Again, in life,

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Speaker 3: it's good to think different, and the Chiefs are the

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Speaker 3: best example of that. They saw something no one else

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Speaker 3: could see. And even Andy Reeds in his wildest dreams,

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Speaker 3: they did not see this kid turning what he's into.

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Speaker 3: So yeah, I can't wait to dive into it. Brother.

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Speaker 1: We are going to dive into the context of how

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Speaker 1: great he is as a reminder and how great we are,

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Speaker 1: by the way, for betting on him because of how

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Speaker 1: great he is as a reminder. The Favorite podcast is

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Speaker 1: Terms condition and restrictions apply. As reminder, catch every episode.

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Speaker 1: All of the favorites live on YouTube. For those enjoying

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Speaker 2: Okay, Simon.

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Speaker 1: For two weeks, we have been saying Chiefs as dogs

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Speaker 1: plus two and a half plus two. Evan even told

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Speaker 1: us if we're gonna bet on the Chiefs, bet on

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Speaker 1: the Chiefs to win, and bet them to win by

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Speaker 1: a field goal, because we were going to see that

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Speaker 1: teams in that position when you do win, you tend

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Speaker 1: to win by field goal or more. A lot of

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Speaker 1: noise out there from the wise guys. For sure, we

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Speaker 1: settled on it. We feel good about it, Under and

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Speaker 1: the Chiefs. This game raised so many questions to me

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Speaker 1: about some really interesting important topics of betting. First and

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Speaker 1: I want your take on this, how to power rate

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Speaker 1: when we get to the playoffs. San Francisco was the

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Speaker 1: dominant team all season long. The Chiefs were clearly a

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Speaker 1: team that was much better in the last five weeks

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Speaker 1: of the season. Bookmakers did not account for that, like

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Speaker 1: maybe the game should have been closer to opening it one, right?

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Speaker 1: Why can't better as a bookmakers adjust more quickly to

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Speaker 1: account for sort of an end of the season improvement

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Speaker 1: and evolution.

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Speaker 3: I let'ld say first, Matt Mitchell hit the damn music

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Speaker 3: one last time? Uh yeah, Chad, that was the dream.

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Speaker 3: The way we broke down the game, everything we said

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Speaker 3: it literally went exactly how we talked about it. And

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Speaker 3: that's as a better when you're investing heavy And I

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Speaker 3: tell people all the time, Week one is my second

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Speaker 3: biggest week, the biggest week of any professional any year.

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Speaker 3: Will always be the super Bowl, because it's never easier

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Speaker 3: to get money down. It's no book will say no

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Speaker 3: to any bet I want to make. They will take. Again,

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Speaker 3: this is talking side in total props. It's it's a joke.

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Speaker 3: You're going to get pennies down, But on side in totals,

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Speaker 3: I could put as much money as I wanted down

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Speaker 3: on that under like the forty seven and a half

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Speaker 3: hung for two and a half weeks, never aendying amount

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Speaker 3: of money could be poured into it. They didn't move it.

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Speaker 3: Same with the Chiefs, Chad. That was the craziest part.

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Speaker 3: All that money kept coming in and the books. Again,

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Speaker 3: these guys are smart. There's a really reason these casinos exist.

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Speaker 3: But they got caught. They thought they were so smart

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Speaker 3: hanging that number, and they were happy to take that

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Speaker 3: Chiefs money because they liked their position. I think it's

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Speaker 3: something mean. You were going to talk about how the

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Speaker 3: models can account for what mahomes can do, and the

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Speaker 3: books got caught. I think again, the Vegas had a

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Speaker 3: winning day, but I think their take home was sixty

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Speaker 3: six million dollars, So one hundred and ninety million was bet.

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Speaker 3: Their take was six million. That's terrible, Like people will

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Speaker 3: be fired for that, no joke. That's that's a really

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Speaker 3: bad take for them on their biggest weekend they've ever had.

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Speaker 3: So yeah, they they should have hung. But we talked

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Speaker 3: about they should have made this a pick, make it

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Speaker 3: maybe minus one, but it was crazy before kickoff, you

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Speaker 3: could have got two and a half. So yeah, for

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Speaker 3: me and what we talked about again, we'll dive more

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Speaker 3: into it. It's like it's the dream scenario, right. Our

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Speaker 3: show wins big, my group wins big. I personally went big.

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Speaker 3: I'll get a really nice bonus here coming up. And

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Speaker 3: it's just people care so much about the playoffs. Mean,

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Speaker 3: you could lay an egg for two months and got

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Speaker 3: honest truth. If we win the super Bowl, most of

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Speaker 3: that will be forgotten just because people do bet so

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Speaker 3: heavy on this game. So yeah, it's nice to know

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Speaker 3: we put a ton of time into this game. You

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Speaker 3: break down film NonStop and just for off the top.

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Speaker 3: Something that really stood out for me, something we talked

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Speaker 3: about was the difference of Spags right and everything in

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Speaker 3: that game. Again, mahomes all of it's incredible. It all

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Speaker 3: felt like it came down to Spags waited at the

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Speaker 3: right time to send those corner blitzes on those third

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Speaker 3: downs that literally decided that game. So you know, obviously

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Speaker 3: so much would dive into this game. But off the top,

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Speaker 3: to me, the biggest thing that stood out was just

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Speaker 3: how well Perdy played and just in the biggest moment,

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Speaker 3: I think he was blitzed. I'd have to look at

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Speaker 3: my notes, I think eighteen times and he was twelve

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Speaker 3: for eight against the Blitz. So like, it wasn't even

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Speaker 3: that Perty had a bad game against the Blitz, but

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Speaker 3: those those third downs, those third and fourths, those third

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Speaker 3: and threes with spags would send that corner blitz. It

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Speaker 3: was the game changer. So just dream scenario, Chad, Right,

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Speaker 3: when you win, when you win an over under by

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Speaker 3: half a point, you cannot feel like you got very

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Speaker 3: lucky in a game that was ten to three at

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Speaker 3: halftime and you almost lost the over So by the.

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Speaker 1: Way, one just total one total by half a point,

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Speaker 1: half a point scores in overtime.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, right, like it just that's why again we want

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Speaker 3: to I want to shoot in the books for laying

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Speaker 3: a bad number. How sharp were they with that total?

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Speaker 3: Like opening at forty seven and a half, touched forty eight,

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Speaker 3: closed at forty six and a half in a couple

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Speaker 3: of books, And it's just that's what we're dealing with

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Speaker 3: here people, these last couple of Super Bowls. It's again,

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Speaker 3: it's the golden age of football. Like it's we haven't

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Speaker 3: had a blowout in forever, Like it's just been incredibly

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Speaker 3: closed super bowls where you can go back and look

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Speaker 3: in the nineties, the seventies, the eighties, a lot of

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Speaker 3: blowouts and yeah, it's just again, one hundred and twenty

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Speaker 3: three million people watched that. It really is the golden

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Speaker 3: age of football.

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Speaker 1: But you didn't answer my question, why can't books adjust

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Speaker 1: and why didn't a lot of better is adjust. A

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Speaker 1: lot of professional money came in on the Niners, big

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Speaker 1: big bets came in on the Niners.

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Speaker 2: Why we were hearing it all week?

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Speaker 1: You're sort of shaking your head, and like all week

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Speaker 1: we were hearing a house players.

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Speaker 3: I told you a tauas players, right.

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Speaker 1: But still like even before that, we were hearing from

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Speaker 1: wise guys that they liked the Niners and we were

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Speaker 1: staying strong and staying on the Chiefs.

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Speaker 2: But a lot of that, to me is because the way.

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Speaker 1: These games get power rated is power ratings are set

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Speaker 1: over the course of the season, and bookmakers especially are

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Speaker 1: very slow to adjust. And the Chiefs were a team

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Speaker 1: that was not perfect, but they are a team that

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Speaker 1: is built to win over the course of a season.

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Speaker 1: They're not worried about whether or not they're going to

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Speaker 1: be the number one seed. They know they'll be able

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Speaker 1: to win wherever they go as long as they are

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Speaker 1: playing their best.

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Speaker 2: Football come January.

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Speaker 1: So the books didn't adjust for the fact that the

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Speaker 1: Niners got that the Chiefs got so much better.

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Speaker 2: Why is it so hard for books to make those

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Speaker 2: dramatic adjustments.

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Speaker 3: Honestly, the truth is they're stubborn. And that was the

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Speaker 3: hardest part for me adjusting to the Mahomes because I

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Speaker 3: told you, it's like everything in my body was like,

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Speaker 3: you want to take the forty nine ers here. They

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Speaker 3: matched up really well with a lot of what they did,

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Speaker 3: but you just talked about it. It's like the more

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Speaker 3: I dove into the film, the more I realized it's like, no,

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Speaker 3: there's plenty here for the Chiefs to take advantage of

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Speaker 3: against this forty nine ers team, and they did. And like, again,

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Speaker 3: it's all about the adjustments. We talk all the time.

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Speaker 3: It's these games are won and lost on these adjustments,

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Speaker 3: and even in that overtime, people will go back and

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Speaker 3: watch watch how they attack Bosa. That's that was the

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Speaker 3: biggest table for me, Like that was a big adjustment

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Speaker 3: where Bosa dominated the first half and they kind of

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Speaker 3: redid the offense. We're like, you know what, we need

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Speaker 3: to need to run it at him or just break

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Speaker 3: out Mahomes to that side and let him get free. Wrong,

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Speaker 3: we cannot have him keep dropping back and let Bosa

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Speaker 3: get free runs on him. So yeah, the books, I

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Speaker 3: got where they were coming from. I told Dry this

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Speaker 3: game at minus one and a half for the forty

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Speaker 3: nine ers, but I was never going to bet the

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Speaker 3: forty nine unless they were a dog. I was never

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Speaker 3: going to do it. But you kind of saw where

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Speaker 3: I was coming from. Where I wanted the Chiefs at

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Speaker 3: three because that felt like the safe number, Like that

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Speaker 3: to me was the safest spot to bet this team.

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Speaker 3: Because thing about this game, it was a coin flip game.

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Speaker 3: It came down to a field goal, and that's that's

258
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Speaker 3: what it felt like it was going to be the

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Speaker 3: whole time, no matter what. So yeah, the books not

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Speaker 3: adjusting to it. I think it's just being stubborn because

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Speaker 3: most of us have the model and I was right

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Speaker 3: there with them. But I didn't get the money. That's

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Speaker 3: what That's my biggest issue was I didn't get the money.

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Speaker 3: Where It's like the books kept saying they needed the

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Speaker 3: forty nine ers, then why not move the number? Because

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Speaker 3: every pro I talked to, the ones that were betting

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Speaker 3: it were stubborn betterans. They weren't putting big money against

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Speaker 3: my homes. Honestly, That's why I kept saying those big

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Speaker 3: bets were seeing that was house betters to me. And

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Speaker 3: you know, even our our network Action ran a thing

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Speaker 3: with Billy Walters. And again, all you people out there,

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Speaker 3: you don't fucking know any professional betters. Billy Billy Walters

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Speaker 3: is it for you? Guys? Right? You think you know

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Speaker 3: pros on Twitter? You do not. But what Billy Walters

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Speaker 3: says is God's honest truth. And when people are like, oh,

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Speaker 3: he's playing mind games telling people he's going to take

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Speaker 3: the chiefs here, he's really going to be on the

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Speaker 3: forty nine ers. What so he can look stupid to

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Speaker 3: all of you people say he's about the chiefs, Billy Billy.

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Speaker 2: Walters is saying he's on the Chiefs, he's already gotten

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Speaker 2: his money down.

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Speaker 3: He doesn't I couldn't say that the narrative. We're like,

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Speaker 3: they're like, oh, Billy's trying to psyite people out so

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Speaker 3: he gets a better number on the forty nine ers.

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Speaker 3: It couldn't be further from the truth on what he

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Speaker 3: was doing. So that was what it was annoying. Part two.

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Speaker 3: People are like, you're doing the square pick taking the

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Speaker 3: chiefs with the public. It's like, you only know one

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Speaker 3: professional better named Billy Walters and he's on the chiefs.

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Speaker 3: How can the chiefs be square if the best better

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Speaker 3: in American history is on that side. So that that's

292
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Speaker 3: the hardest part too. You're hearing so much stupid noise.

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Speaker 3: Even the pros I talked to that are really smart,

294
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Speaker 3: none of them went seven figures against Mahomes for good reason.

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Speaker 3: It's like they're not dumb enough to take that stance

296
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Speaker 3: where they were. They did take a stance, they did

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Speaker 3: take the forty nine ers, but none of them were like, oh,

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Speaker 3: this is this is an easy bet, right, None of

299
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Speaker 3: them took that big of a position just because the

300
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Speaker 3: line was so tight. So, yeah, it was an interesting

301
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Speaker 3: week of really hard to stay in your position because

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Speaker 3: there was so much noise. But honestly, one of the

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Speaker 3: best sleeps I've ever had been in Super Bowl was

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Speaker 3: a Saturday night've been on Mahomes. I really had peace

305
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Speaker 3: of mind where it's like, I feel so much trust

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Speaker 3: with this guy that if he has the ball last,

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Speaker 3: I'm gonna be all right. And what did we see

308
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Speaker 3: chat We saw history. He was eight for eight on

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Speaker 3: that final drive in overtime to get a touchdown. That's

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Speaker 3: why we bet him. Right, It's like that was the

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Speaker 3: exact thing we talked about.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, everything we talked about was do you really want

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Speaker 1: to get it bet against Mahomes in a close.

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Speaker 2: Game where the fact he's the guy on the either side.

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Speaker 1: Of the field is going to play into the decision

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Speaker 1: that every other coach opposing him in, every quarterback opposing

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Speaker 1: him plays, We're gonna I want to dig in a

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Speaker 1: little more into sort of his greatness.

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Speaker 2: There's two other points I want to make.

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Speaker 1: You mentioned Spagnolo and he's the only coordinator with four

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Speaker 1: Super Bowl rings. He called a legendary blitz. I think

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Speaker 1: it should go down with the Edelman catch in the

323
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Speaker 1: Super Bowl against the Falcons. I think it should go

324
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Speaker 1: down with the Malcolm Butler interception. I think it should

325
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Speaker 1: go down with the Tyree helmet.

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Speaker 2: Catch third and four from the.

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Speaker 1: Kansas City thirty five yard line. If San Francisco late

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Speaker 1: in the game, ty game. If San Francisco gets a

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Speaker 1: first down, that game is over. And he ran a blitz.

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Speaker 1: And people like to hate on Romo, but Romo did

331
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Speaker 1: an amazing job of capturing this. Trent McDuffie is lined

332
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Speaker 1: up in the slot what looks like he will be

333
00:16:39,920 --> 00:16:42,920
Speaker 1: defending whoever is in the slot for the Niners. He

334
00:16:43,440 --> 00:16:48,840
Speaker 1: takes one tiny step back as Purty is in shotgun

335
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Speaker 1: and sees what McDuffie is doing. Purty looks the other way.

336
00:16:53,680 --> 00:16:57,920
Speaker 1: Trent McDuffie then leaves coverage. Blitz is unblocked. He's there

337
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Speaker 1: in less than a second and a half. That's the

338
00:17:00,560 --> 00:17:04,480
Speaker 1: ball down, it's a field goal. That's the game. And

339
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Speaker 1: like the fact that Spagnolo knew when he wanted to

340
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Speaker 1: call that blitz. He did not call a ton of

341
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Speaker 1: blitzes on that drive, but on that play called that blitz.

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Speaker 1: He's a Hall of famer. He must get into the

343
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Speaker 1: Hall of Fame with the way he has built a

344
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Speaker 1: defense to compliment a once in a generation quarterback and

345
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Speaker 1: Patrick Mahomes put him in.

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Speaker 2: The Hall of Fame.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, and he's also a great life lesson of not

348
00:17:28,440 --> 00:17:30,280
Speaker 3: everyone's cut out for different things in life. He is

349
00:17:30,320 --> 00:17:32,800
Speaker 3: not a good head coach, and there's so much an

350
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Speaker 3: extra that goes into head coach. But like you just

351
00:17:35,119 --> 00:17:38,359
Speaker 3: said it that they're the second youngest defense in NFL

352
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Speaker 3: history to win a Super Bowl, Like their average age

353
00:17:40,680 --> 00:17:43,960
Speaker 3: was twenty five, and what he's done with their secondary

354
00:17:44,000 --> 00:17:46,080
Speaker 3: of the cornerbacks, all of it, even their young detack

355
00:17:46,280 --> 00:17:48,800
Speaker 3: was like, that was how you beat Purty. How you

356
00:17:48,800 --> 00:17:50,600
Speaker 3: beat Purty is you get pressure up the middle and

357
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Speaker 3: get them off balanced. Like that's really his only real weakness.

358
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Speaker 3: I mean, that's what's so crazy about breaking down Perty's film.

359
00:17:56,040 --> 00:17:58,879
Speaker 3: It's like, I can't believe this kid was the last

360
00:17:58,880 --> 00:18:01,040
Speaker 3: pick in the second round or the seventh round, like

361
00:18:01,119 --> 00:18:03,160
Speaker 3: all of his off bouncers, all of it. So, yeah,

362
00:18:03,200 --> 00:18:06,639
Speaker 3: when you're breaking out of defense, to me, that was

363
00:18:06,680 --> 00:18:09,600
Speaker 3: the key, right, And Kurt Warner did a great breakdown

364
00:18:09,640 --> 00:18:12,720
Speaker 3: on Twitter about there was really nothing Perty can do.

365
00:18:12,960 --> 00:18:16,359
Speaker 3: If Purdy was a ten year vet, maybe there's something

366
00:18:16,400 --> 00:18:18,280
Speaker 3: he could have done there, right, Maybe go hard count

367
00:18:18,680 --> 00:18:21,800
Speaker 3: anything to see that pre snap blitz. That's not who

368
00:18:21,800 --> 00:18:24,800
Speaker 3: perty is man, He's a second guy running a very

369
00:18:24,840 --> 00:18:27,040
Speaker 3: simple system that he just needs to really make those

370
00:18:27,080 --> 00:18:28,960
Speaker 3: reads right. So Purdy has a lot going on his

371
00:18:29,000 --> 00:18:30,600
Speaker 3: head already, trying to remember all these plays on all this

372
00:18:30,640 --> 00:18:34,280
Speaker 3: different crap him not doing a hard count there. Yes,

373
00:18:34,600 --> 00:18:36,719
Speaker 3: people are can fault them for that, right, but if

374
00:18:36,720 --> 00:18:38,439
Speaker 3: you go back and watch that play, there's nothing they

375
00:18:38,480 --> 00:18:41,199
Speaker 3: could have done unless taking a time out or whatever

376
00:18:41,320 --> 00:18:43,000
Speaker 3: it was. He was dead from the get gos. What

377
00:18:43,040 --> 00:18:46,920
Speaker 3: Chad just said, incredible disguise. The guy was backpedaling right

378
00:18:46,960 --> 00:18:50,080
Speaker 3: before he snapped it and then just instant sprint unblocked

379
00:18:50,119 --> 00:18:52,280
Speaker 3: right to him. So that was incredible. That everyone's gonna

380
00:18:52,280 --> 00:18:55,679
Speaker 3: go back to the overtime play, right, Ayuk breaks his

381
00:18:55,720 --> 00:18:57,960
Speaker 3: guy's ankles. He is in the back of the end

382
00:18:58,040 --> 00:19:01,440
Speaker 3: zone wide open in that overtime But what happened right

383
00:19:01,920 --> 00:19:04,679
Speaker 3: third down Blitzah, Yeah, that's what I mean. Third down

384
00:19:04,720 --> 00:19:09,080
Speaker 3: blitz by Spags. The offensive line shifted, They didn't account

385
00:19:09,160 --> 00:19:11,080
Speaker 3: the right the guard made the wrong read. He broke

386
00:19:11,119 --> 00:19:15,760
Speaker 3: inside instead of staying on Chris Jones right, unblocked right,

387
00:19:15,800 --> 00:19:18,400
Speaker 3: they're party and it's just that's that's the game within

388
00:19:18,440 --> 00:19:21,520
Speaker 3: the game, right. Andy Reid made the perfect call on

389
00:19:21,600 --> 00:19:25,440
Speaker 3: that touchdown and a couple couple plays right, same with Spags.

390
00:19:25,440 --> 00:19:29,920
Speaker 3: Spags made the perfect calls of the perfect time, and

391
00:19:30,040 --> 00:19:32,159
Speaker 3: that was the game changer of the game, Like you

392
00:19:32,200 --> 00:19:34,320
Speaker 3: just talked about, like it won't be remembered by by

393
00:19:34,359 --> 00:19:37,120
Speaker 3: football nerds like us. That's a player I'll remember forever,

394
00:19:37,160 --> 00:19:39,639
Speaker 3: because you're right. It was just the perfect call and

395
00:19:39,680 --> 00:19:41,720
Speaker 3: he'd just been saving it for that exact third down.

396
00:19:42,520 --> 00:19:47,800
Speaker 1: At halftime of this game, the Niners were then up

397
00:19:47,800 --> 00:19:51,080
Speaker 1: ten to three, and I was sitting watching with my wife,

398
00:19:51,320 --> 00:19:54,679
Speaker 1: who's not a like, you know, huge football fan. She

399
00:19:54,720 --> 00:19:57,280
Speaker 1: doesn't know sort of the history and the legacy of

400
00:19:57,359 --> 00:20:00,760
Speaker 1: usher coming on, right, She doesn't know the history and

401
00:20:00,880 --> 00:20:04,479
Speaker 1: legacy of Kyle Shanahan. And I looked at her and

402
00:20:04,520 --> 00:20:07,880
Speaker 1: I go, I said, this, poor forty nine Ers coach,

403
00:20:08,960 --> 00:20:11,639
Speaker 1: he's going to lose another Super Bowl in which he

404
00:20:11,680 --> 00:20:12,840
Speaker 1: had a double digit lead.

405
00:20:13,160 --> 00:20:15,320
Speaker 3: I felt the same way. I felt the same way.

406
00:20:15,720 --> 00:20:16,800
Speaker 2: And here's the thing.

407
00:20:17,960 --> 00:20:23,080
Speaker 1: I feel like this should not be an indictment on

408
00:20:23,400 --> 00:20:26,280
Speaker 1: Kyle Shanahan not winning at this point, I think it's

409
00:20:26,359 --> 00:20:29,720
Speaker 1: actually a testament to his skill level.

410
00:20:30,440 --> 00:20:31,760
Speaker 2: Of the people he is.

411
00:20:31,760 --> 00:20:36,040
Speaker 1: Playing against, he should be praised for making it as

412
00:20:36,160 --> 00:20:39,840
Speaker 1: hard on them as it has been, because he's had

413
00:20:39,880 --> 00:20:44,919
Speaker 1: the misfortune of coaching against Tom Brady when he was

414
00:20:44,920 --> 00:20:48,720
Speaker 1: the coordinator for the Falcons and Patrick Mahomes in his

415
00:20:48,800 --> 00:20:52,960
Speaker 1: two Super Bowl losses. This is like, and this is

416
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Speaker 1: something we were saying about Patrick Mahomes for the past

417
00:20:55,480 --> 00:21:00,200
Speaker 1: two weeks. He's not a normal quarterback, right. He is

418
00:21:00,240 --> 00:21:05,640
Speaker 1: a Michael Jordan esque, Picasso esque, Shakespeare Esque Bill Gates

419
00:21:05,880 --> 00:21:10,600
Speaker 1: esque figure. He is the exception to every rule. We

420
00:21:10,640 --> 00:21:15,200
Speaker 1: are witnessing greatness on a level that has not existed

421
00:21:15,240 --> 00:21:18,720
Speaker 1: except for maybe Tom Brady in the NFL, which is

422
00:21:18,760 --> 00:21:21,639
Speaker 1: why you cannot bet against him. You cannot account for

423
00:21:22,040 --> 00:21:24,560
Speaker 1: the normal modeling when it comes to him. This is

424
00:21:24,640 --> 00:21:28,719
Speaker 1: the Buffalo Bills losing to the Cowboys because they had EMMITTT.

425
00:21:28,760 --> 00:21:31,879
Speaker 1: Smith and Michael Irvin. It's the Jazz losing to the

426
00:21:32,040 --> 00:21:35,640
Speaker 1: Bulls because they have Michael Jordan. Taking nothing away from

427
00:21:35,680 --> 00:21:38,360
Speaker 1: Jerry Sloan and John Stockton and Carl Malone, all Hall

428
00:21:38,400 --> 00:21:41,439
Speaker 1: of famers, but you were going against Michael Jordan and

429
00:21:41,440 --> 00:21:44,080
Speaker 1: Phil Jackson like, you're just going against the people who

430
00:21:44,119 --> 00:21:47,040
Speaker 1: are better than anyone ever, not just better than anyone

431
00:21:47,119 --> 00:21:50,399
Speaker 1: in this moment. Here's a great staff from Aaron Shatz

432
00:21:51,359 --> 00:21:59,120
Speaker 1: from formerlia football outsiders Mike Shanahan teams are now three

433
00:21:59,160 --> 00:22:03,399
Speaker 1: of the sixth best teams ever to lose a Super

434
00:22:03,440 --> 00:22:09,240
Speaker 1: Bowl based on DVOA. I mean, I feel terrible for

435
00:22:09,280 --> 00:22:11,439
Speaker 1: the guy, but he's going against Here's some stats on

436
00:22:11,480 --> 00:22:13,000
Speaker 1: how dominant Patrick Mahomes is.

437
00:22:13,119 --> 00:22:15,040
Speaker 3: I just love they called him Mike. You called him Mike, Mike.

438
00:22:15,200 --> 00:22:15,920
Speaker 2: Is that Colin Mike?

439
00:22:16,119 --> 00:22:17,359
Speaker 3: Yeah, it's You're just locked in.

440
00:22:17,680 --> 00:22:19,160
Speaker 2: I'm locked in. Sorry, Kyle.

441
00:22:20,440 --> 00:22:30,720
Speaker 3: Pats take behind to the squee below.

442
00:22:31,440 --> 00:22:35,440
Speaker 1: In one hundred and fourteen career starts, Patrick Mahomes has

443
00:22:35,480 --> 00:22:41,439
Speaker 1: lost by more than one possession four times. When Kansas

444
00:22:41,440 --> 00:22:44,280
Speaker 1: City allows seventeen points or less with Mahomes as a QB,

445
00:22:45,080 --> 00:22:48,600
Speaker 1: they are forty two and oh straight up. When they

446
00:22:48,600 --> 00:22:52,800
Speaker 1: allow fewer than twenty four points, they are fifty eight

447
00:22:53,600 --> 00:22:58,160
Speaker 1: and six. When he is trailed by seven or more

448
00:22:58,160 --> 00:23:02,560
Speaker 1: points in a less playoff games, he has taken the

449
00:23:02,680 --> 00:23:07,560
Speaker 1: lead back in ten of those games. Since twenty nineteen,

450
00:23:08,320 --> 00:23:10,359
Speaker 1: the Chiefs have trailed by ten or more points in

451
00:23:10,359 --> 00:23:13,080
Speaker 1: a playoff game. Six times they are five and one

452
00:23:13,119 --> 00:23:15,159
Speaker 1: straight up in those games. The rest of the NFL

453
00:23:15,840 --> 00:23:21,720
Speaker 1: six and forty eight in those games, the guy is insane.

454
00:23:22,680 --> 00:23:25,119
Speaker 3: He's insane, and these are the down This is suppeoifically

455
00:23:25,200 --> 00:23:27,119
Speaker 3: a down year. Like that's the craziest part of these

456
00:23:27,160 --> 00:23:30,080
Speaker 3: last two years. Was like, Okay, they paid him the money.

457
00:23:30,080 --> 00:23:33,200
Speaker 3: Now they have to rebuild around them, right, and it's

458
00:23:33,240 --> 00:23:35,640
Speaker 3: just gone the other way. And that was like, that's

459
00:23:35,640 --> 00:23:37,720
Speaker 3: the most painful part for me, where like we talked

460
00:23:37,720 --> 00:23:40,320
Speaker 3: about it, we got sucked in the narrative that they

461
00:23:40,359 --> 00:23:43,800
Speaker 3: just weren't the same team this year. And it's true

462
00:23:43,960 --> 00:23:46,000
Speaker 3: even in that Super Bowl, right, it showed it Uckily had.

463
00:23:46,040 --> 00:23:49,600
Speaker 3: That offense can be incredibly stagnant because they don't have

464
00:23:49,680 --> 00:23:53,040
Speaker 3: the game breakers. And again forty nine ers fans, I

465
00:23:53,040 --> 00:23:56,000
Speaker 3: don't fault them for it, but you know, once they

466
00:23:56,000 --> 00:23:59,280
Speaker 3: get injury to the linebacker position, you can't say the

467
00:23:59,280 --> 00:24:02,840
Speaker 3: game did change. They who came in who got her

468
00:24:02,880 --> 00:24:03,480
Speaker 3: was a green Law?

469
00:24:03,720 --> 00:24:04,720
Speaker 2: Green Law got hurt.

470
00:24:04,920 --> 00:24:07,360
Speaker 3: Yes, it was green Law. So Greenlaw goes down and

471
00:24:07,520 --> 00:24:10,000
Speaker 3: at the time he is dominating the game. If you

472
00:24:10,040 --> 00:24:12,359
Speaker 3: go back and watch the film, they are flying to

473
00:24:12,400 --> 00:24:15,160
Speaker 3: the ball. The guy who comes in and replace him,

474
00:24:15,640 --> 00:24:18,040
Speaker 3: Mahomes goes nine for nine against him, with one hundred

475
00:24:18,040 --> 00:24:22,400
Speaker 3: and thirty passer rating in a touchdown. It's like, that's

476
00:24:22,440 --> 00:24:25,960
Speaker 3: what's so brutal with this, where you eventually give Mahomes

477
00:24:26,000 --> 00:24:29,040
Speaker 3: the matchup. He is so incredibly good at attacking it

478
00:24:29,080 --> 00:24:31,560
Speaker 3: and taking advantage of it, and he's assassin with it.

479
00:24:31,640 --> 00:24:34,720
Speaker 3: And that was the adjustment obviously they made, and we

480
00:24:34,760 --> 00:24:37,920
Speaker 3: talked about it a little before the show, like Love

481
00:24:38,400 --> 00:24:40,880
Speaker 3: I Will Love Forever. That call on fourth and one

482
00:24:40,960 --> 00:24:43,639
Speaker 3: running a triple option right, he could either handed it off,

483
00:24:43,960 --> 00:24:46,320
Speaker 3: he could have done a quick pass to Kelsey or Rice,

484
00:24:46,840 --> 00:24:48,640
Speaker 3: but if it wasn't there, he was just gonna tuck

485
00:24:48,680 --> 00:24:51,680
Speaker 3: it and run. And it's like you can't stop those

486
00:24:51,760 --> 00:24:53,920
Speaker 3: kind of quarterbacks in those moments where Mahomes just never

487
00:24:54,000 --> 00:24:56,200
Speaker 3: lets it get too big, he didn't even panic. I mean,

488
00:24:56,280 --> 00:24:58,720
Speaker 3: right in his phrace is Bosa. Bosa goes with the

489
00:24:58,800 --> 00:25:01,159
Speaker 3: running back, he keeps and just cuts right off of

490
00:25:01,200 --> 00:25:03,119
Speaker 3: him and takes whatever it was ten fifty yards outfut

491
00:25:03,200 --> 00:25:05,440
Speaker 3: It's just like that's what we talk about. We're betting

492
00:25:05,520 --> 00:25:08,439
Speaker 3: him where he just when things break down. He always

493
00:25:08,440 --> 00:25:10,680
Speaker 3: makes magic and the moment's never too big for him.

494
00:25:10,840 --> 00:25:13,320
Speaker 3: And even at halftime, like you said, they're down ten

495
00:25:13,359 --> 00:25:17,320
Speaker 3: to three, I never lost confidence and I knew eventually

496
00:25:17,320 --> 00:25:19,400
Speaker 3: they would get a lucky break. That's just how their

497
00:25:19,400 --> 00:25:22,320
Speaker 3: team's been all season. And sure enough, that punt happens,

498
00:25:22,400 --> 00:25:25,199
Speaker 3: hits a foot, you know, the guy makes the right

499
00:25:25,200 --> 00:25:27,600
Speaker 3: play right, tries to dive on it or pick it up,

500
00:25:27,600 --> 00:25:29,439
Speaker 3: which I guess could say the wrong place, should just

501
00:25:29,480 --> 00:25:32,919
Speaker 3: dove on it, But the moment was there, and what

502
00:25:33,119 --> 00:25:35,840
Speaker 3: we talk about all the time, he's such a killer

503
00:25:35,840 --> 00:25:38,119
Speaker 3: with momentum that their first play he goes right to

504
00:25:38,119 --> 00:25:40,320
Speaker 3: the end zone. They score. And this is where I

505
00:25:40,359 --> 00:25:43,000
Speaker 3: got so much respect for Purdy. He came out down

506
00:25:43,040 --> 00:25:45,320
Speaker 3: thirteen to ten and drove right down the field and

507
00:25:45,359 --> 00:25:47,600
Speaker 3: got a touchdown. And it's like, again, if you're a

508
00:25:47,640 --> 00:25:50,520
Speaker 3: for a nine er span, it sucks, it's brutal, but

509
00:25:50,560 --> 00:25:54,159
Speaker 3: it's like, you guys are so lucky that Purty just

510
00:25:54,160 --> 00:25:57,119
Speaker 3: seems like he's the real deal and these moments aren't

511
00:25:57,119 --> 00:26:00,919
Speaker 3: too big for him. It's it's pretty incredible. So yeah,

512
00:26:00,960 --> 00:26:05,280
Speaker 3: like again, retrospect this league, I mean, God, William me

513
00:26:05,280 --> 00:26:07,160
Speaker 3: and Chad, are still gonna be living for another hundred years.

514
00:26:07,160 --> 00:26:09,600
Speaker 3: There's gonna be in next hundred years there's gonna be

515
00:26:09,640 --> 00:26:11,800
Speaker 3: teams that never win a Super Bowl, the Lions of Browns.

516
00:26:11,840 --> 00:26:14,080
Speaker 3: There is gonna be these teams that exist that are

517
00:26:14,119 --> 00:26:15,919
Speaker 3: never gonna win. And that's the toughest part. If you're

518
00:26:15,920 --> 00:26:18,359
Speaker 3: a Finance fan, It's like you got the team, but

519
00:26:18,359 --> 00:26:19,639
Speaker 3: you don't know if you're ever gonna be back. And

520
00:26:19,680 --> 00:26:21,240
Speaker 3: that's that's why I get it why you guys are

521
00:26:21,280 --> 00:26:23,920
Speaker 3: so miserable right now. But it's like what Chad said,

522
00:26:24,640 --> 00:26:27,080
Speaker 3: you ran into history. It's mahomes like it's an Eagles fan.

523
00:26:27,080 --> 00:26:29,320
Speaker 3: I'm bummed about it. But it's like if you lose

524
00:26:29,440 --> 00:26:31,920
Speaker 3: the greatest one, it doesn't matter. Now. The fun part, Chad,

525
00:26:31,920 --> 00:26:34,040
Speaker 3: for me and you the next ten years, who's gonna

526
00:26:34,040 --> 00:26:36,320
Speaker 3: be our Eli Manning? Right? Who is going to be

527
00:26:37,080 --> 00:26:41,680
Speaker 3: this mid tier, unassuming quarterback that's gonna keep slaying this guy?

528
00:26:41,840 --> 00:26:44,120
Speaker 3: And you know the story at the end of the day,

529
00:26:44,520 --> 00:26:47,840
Speaker 3: again Eli made the throws. It was Spags right. Spags

530
00:26:47,880 --> 00:26:49,800
Speaker 3: is part of that team that beat the had eighteen

531
00:26:49,840 --> 00:26:52,399
Speaker 3: oh on a Patriots, So we know what you need

532
00:26:52,440 --> 00:26:54,080
Speaker 3: to do to beat Mahomes right. You need to be

533
00:26:54,119 --> 00:26:56,320
Speaker 3: able to get pressure with the front four. That's how

534
00:26:56,359 --> 00:26:58,240
Speaker 3: the foy Nites are winning. They were getting pressure with

535
00:26:58,280 --> 00:27:00,920
Speaker 3: their front four dropping the rest of the coverage. My

536
00:27:01,000 --> 00:27:03,320
Speaker 3: Homes couldn't do anything to it. This issue was the

537
00:27:03,320 --> 00:27:06,480
Speaker 3: foy Niners going to capitalize? I mean, you can't only

538
00:27:06,520 --> 00:27:09,360
Speaker 3: score two touchdowns against Pat and expect to win. And

539
00:27:09,840 --> 00:27:12,639
Speaker 3: I think Party had good retrospect talking about that where

540
00:27:13,280 --> 00:27:17,080
Speaker 3: he did fail and retrospect because they kicked field goals.

541
00:27:17,400 --> 00:27:20,200
Speaker 3: You need sevens to beat you need you need seven

542
00:27:20,280 --> 00:27:21,840
Speaker 3: to beat them, right, Like we've seen it time and

543
00:27:21,920 --> 00:27:25,159
Speaker 3: time again. If you give him an inch the mental

544
00:27:25,160 --> 00:27:28,240
Speaker 3: war games, they're going to beat you eventually. And I

545
00:27:28,240 --> 00:27:31,919
Speaker 3: think it makes sense why people keep harping on. We

546
00:27:31,960 --> 00:27:34,720
Speaker 3: talked before, right, Chad more prepared team was going to

547
00:27:34,720 --> 00:27:36,600
Speaker 3: be the Chiefs. Right, their coaching staff will be the

548
00:27:36,600 --> 00:27:40,360
Speaker 3: most prepared team. It showed true, like them not knowing

549
00:27:40,400 --> 00:27:43,200
Speaker 3: the overtime rules and the fact that Andy Reid talked

550
00:27:43,200 --> 00:27:46,280
Speaker 3: about the overtime rooms in training camp and then they

551
00:27:46,280 --> 00:27:48,200
Speaker 3: talked about it for the two weeks leading up to it.

552
00:27:48,200 --> 00:27:51,000
Speaker 3: It's like, this is what it takes to be great,

553
00:27:51,160 --> 00:27:54,120
Speaker 3: and those little details. Again, I'm not going to blame

554
00:27:54,200 --> 00:27:56,320
Speaker 3: Kyle for losing the game because of that, but that,

555
00:27:56,480 --> 00:27:58,280
Speaker 3: just to me is another factor on the edge that

556
00:27:58,320 --> 00:28:00,880
Speaker 3: Andy Reid and Spags had where it's like every little

557
00:28:00,920 --> 00:28:02,000
Speaker 3: detail they're prepare for.

558
00:28:03,280 --> 00:28:07,520
Speaker 1: In the end, we bet on the best player, the

559
00:28:07,520 --> 00:28:11,679
Speaker 1: better head coach, and the best coordinator. That's ultimately what

560
00:28:11,720 --> 00:28:16,399
Speaker 1: we decided we were gonna do. Yeah, Simon, can you

561
00:28:16,480 --> 00:28:19,959
Speaker 1: name the fastest growing ticketing app in the United States?

562
00:28:20,640 --> 00:28:21,399
Speaker 3: Game Time?

563
00:28:22,040 --> 00:28:24,600
Speaker 1: That's right, It's game Time. I love Game Time for

564
00:28:24,600 --> 00:28:27,720
Speaker 1: two reasons. First, they still sponsor this show. Second, I

565
00:28:27,800 --> 00:28:30,320
Speaker 1: actually use game Time all the time. They have amazing

566
00:28:30,800 --> 00:28:37,400
Speaker 1: last minute deals, including pro and college sports. Speaking of which,

567
00:28:37,720 --> 00:28:41,440
Speaker 1: I'm actually going to open the game Time app right now.

568
00:28:41,480 --> 00:28:44,640
Speaker 2: No matter where you live. What am I doing right now?

569
00:28:44,640 --> 00:28:44,800
Speaker 3: Oh?

570
00:28:44,840 --> 00:28:47,400
Speaker 1: I can see in the game Time app. I can

571
00:28:47,440 --> 00:28:49,480
Speaker 1: see that I can go to a Brooklyn Nets game

572
00:28:49,520 --> 00:28:52,640
Speaker 1: tonight for less than one hundred dollars. They're play in

573
00:28:52,640 --> 00:28:56,480
Speaker 1: the Boston Celtics. I can get into an NBA game in.

574
00:28:56,440 --> 00:28:57,600
Speaker 2: New York City.

575
00:28:58,360 --> 00:29:00,440
Speaker 1: No matter where you live, download the game Time app

576
00:29:00,440 --> 00:29:02,680
Speaker 1: and get out and have some fun this week.

577
00:29:02,720 --> 00:29:03,280
Speaker 2: You deserve it.

578
00:29:03,320 --> 00:29:05,320
Speaker 1: You can redeem code favorites for twenty dollars off your

579
00:29:05,320 --> 00:29:09,400
Speaker 1: first purchase. Terms apply. Just download the game Time app

580
00:29:09,400 --> 00:29:12,480
Speaker 1: and you use code favorites for twenty dollars off your

581
00:29:12,560 --> 00:29:20,760
Speaker 1: first purchase. Last minute tickets, lowest prices. Garn teed, all right, Evan,

582
00:29:22,520 --> 00:29:26,960
Speaker 1: bring us some interesting stats and data to provide context

583
00:29:27,040 --> 00:29:28,560
Speaker 1: for this wonderful Super Bowl.

584
00:29:29,080 --> 00:29:29,800
Speaker 3: What's up, guys?

585
00:29:30,080 --> 00:29:31,800
Speaker 4: We can go one by one here. I do want

586
00:29:31,840 --> 00:29:34,120
Speaker 4: to mention one thing since Simon just hit on it,

587
00:29:34,160 --> 00:29:36,760
Speaker 4: so that list from Aaron shats the top three super

588
00:29:36,760 --> 00:29:41,800
Speaker 4: Bowl losses on that DVOA list all Spagnola too, So

589
00:29:41,880 --> 00:29:44,480
Speaker 4: two forty nine ers and Simon mentioned at oh seven,

590
00:29:44,640 --> 00:29:46,280
Speaker 4: So Spagnola been the great thing.

591
00:29:46,280 --> 00:29:47,520
Speaker 3: I just looked it up very quickly.

592
00:29:47,920 --> 00:29:51,800
Speaker 4: Only so he only had one sack against Perdy and

593
00:29:51,920 --> 00:29:54,360
Speaker 4: only two sacks against Hertz. He had five against Brady,

594
00:29:54,400 --> 00:29:57,760
Speaker 4: so to me, not even sacks. It's the pressure. And

595
00:29:57,800 --> 00:29:59,400
Speaker 4: we saw that on the third down in all those

596
00:29:59,400 --> 00:30:03,800
Speaker 4: different situationtions. Just brilliant scheming, but very fun. That's Bagnola

597
00:30:03,880 --> 00:30:06,360
Speaker 4: is a top three on that list. That guy is unreal.

598
00:30:07,920 --> 00:30:11,680
Speaker 4: All right, let's keep going here. So it's just ridiculous.

599
00:30:11,880 --> 00:30:14,320
Speaker 2: All famer Paul a freaking famer.

600
00:30:14,360 --> 00:30:16,520
Speaker 4: Him and Dick lebou like side by side on so

601
00:30:16,600 --> 00:30:20,360
Speaker 4: many lists. In his career, Patrick Mahomes has played eighteen

602
00:30:20,440 --> 00:30:23,880
Speaker 4: games away from home against defenses allowing twenty points per

603
00:30:23,960 --> 00:30:27,040
Speaker 4: game or less. Mahomes is now seventeen and one. In

604
00:30:27,080 --> 00:30:31,200
Speaker 4: those games, he's won fifteen straight. His only loss was

605
00:30:31,240 --> 00:30:34,320
Speaker 4: to Ryan Tannehill in twenty nineteen. A fun side note,

606
00:30:34,360 --> 00:30:35,640
Speaker 4: but ridiculous.

607
00:30:35,920 --> 00:30:39,280
Speaker 2: The truth is he'll never be an underdog again. Like

608
00:30:40,040 --> 00:30:43,000
Speaker 2: he made a point of noting that they really shouldn't

609
00:30:43,000 --> 00:30:44,000
Speaker 2: ever be underdogs.

610
00:30:45,320 --> 00:30:47,640
Speaker 1: So but this is a good note to remember if

611
00:30:47,960 --> 00:30:50,880
Speaker 1: by chance he ever is an underdog in this scenario again.

612
00:30:51,760 --> 00:30:53,800
Speaker 4: Yeah, all right, so let's move to kind of next

613
00:30:53,840 --> 00:30:55,920
Speaker 4: season for a second, just for a moment, because this

614
00:30:56,080 --> 00:30:58,280
Speaker 4: is a very fun note. So remembering the super Bowl

615
00:30:58,320 --> 00:31:00,880
Speaker 4: hangover for week one. So since two one thousand, the

616
00:31:01,040 --> 00:31:04,200
Speaker 4: loser of a super Bowl five and nineteen against the

617
00:31:04,240 --> 00:31:07,080
Speaker 4: spread to open the year the next season, so not

618
00:31:07,240 --> 00:31:08,800
Speaker 4: a great start last two years.

619
00:31:08,680 --> 00:31:10,920
Speaker 3: Gone one and one with one covering and one not.

620
00:31:11,440 --> 00:31:14,600
Speaker 3: And so let's was covered by what half a point

621
00:31:14,600 --> 00:31:17,560
Speaker 3: against the Patriots. Yeah, it was very tight, really lucky.

622
00:31:17,960 --> 00:31:20,520
Speaker 3: They didn't look great, so I think the angle kind

623
00:31:20,520 --> 00:31:22,800
Speaker 3: of sits for itself. Yeah, but let's kind of talk

624
00:31:22,800 --> 00:31:24,520
Speaker 3: about let's kind of talk about that Week one for

625
00:31:24,560 --> 00:31:28,120
Speaker 3: a second. So speaking of week one, Andy Reid sixteen

626
00:31:28,200 --> 00:31:30,240
Speaker 3: and nine straight up as a head coach to open

627
00:31:30,320 --> 00:31:32,640
Speaker 3: the regular season. But I'm only mentioning that that for

628
00:31:32,720 --> 00:31:35,520
Speaker 3: this reason when looking at his teams playing on long rest,

629
00:31:35,600 --> 00:31:38,280
Speaker 3: so thirteen plus days outside of that Week one, he

630
00:31:38,440 --> 00:31:41,240
Speaker 3: is now thirty two and seven in his career with

631
00:31:41,400 --> 00:31:43,880
Speaker 3: the Chiefs and the Eagles. And I took it one

632
00:31:43,920 --> 00:31:47,160
Speaker 3: step further because I was honestly just curious with Mahomes

633
00:31:47,240 --> 00:31:50,880
Speaker 3: and McNabb. He is twenty seven and three on that

634
00:31:51,040 --> 00:31:55,280
Speaker 3: thirteen days rest outside of Week one, So great quarterback

635
00:31:55,480 --> 00:31:58,800
Speaker 3: and rest. There is literally nobody better in the sport.

636
00:31:58,880 --> 00:32:00,600
Speaker 3: So I thought that was fun. We could put that

637
00:32:00,680 --> 00:32:01,400
Speaker 3: in our back pocket.

638
00:32:02,760 --> 00:32:05,200
Speaker 2: Jeez, Louise. We got a lot of stuff to remember.

639
00:32:05,760 --> 00:32:08,280
Speaker 2: For two. That's why I'm here at the end.

640
00:32:08,160 --> 00:32:08,520
Speaker 3: Of the day.

641
00:32:08,800 --> 00:32:12,040
Speaker 2: A lot of sets remember, But really just remember, they'll

642
00:32:12,040 --> 00:32:13,200
Speaker 2: bet against Patrick Mahomes.

643
00:32:13,880 --> 00:32:15,200
Speaker 3: That's mostly what this is about.

644
00:32:15,920 --> 00:32:19,160
Speaker 4: To Chad's point though, so he'll never be an underdog again,

645
00:32:19,280 --> 00:32:21,080
Speaker 4: but the fact that he was in back to back

646
00:32:21,160 --> 00:32:25,400
Speaker 4: Super Bowls is something we'll never ever forget because he

647
00:32:25,720 --> 00:32:28,520
Speaker 4: was the first team ever to win back to back

648
00:32:28,520 --> 00:32:31,640
Speaker 4: Super Bowls both as underdogs, and Mahomes might go down

649
00:32:31,680 --> 00:32:33,760
Speaker 4: to the best quarterback ever. So the fact that that

650
00:32:33,840 --> 00:32:35,880
Speaker 4: actually happened and we had two teams in Philly and

651
00:32:35,920 --> 00:32:39,880
Speaker 4: San Francisco that pushed the market in that direction pretty fascinating.

652
00:32:40,440 --> 00:32:43,920
Speaker 1: Isn't that amazing? Like, think about this, and this was

653
00:32:44,040 --> 00:32:48,840
Speaker 1: driving a lot of our decision making. Why would you

654
00:32:48,880 --> 00:32:50,720
Speaker 1: bet against Patrick Mahomes as an underdog?

655
00:32:50,840 --> 00:32:50,880
Speaker 4: Like?

656
00:32:50,960 --> 00:32:53,440
Speaker 1: In what world should this guy be an underdog? What

657
00:32:53,560 --> 00:32:57,640
Speaker 1: will be really interesting is, let's say one year, Patrick

658
00:32:57,720 --> 00:33:00,880
Speaker 1: Mahomes is in the Super Bowl with a three loss

659
00:33:01,000 --> 00:33:06,360
Speaker 1: Kansas City team against a team that went undefeated that

660
00:33:06,480 --> 00:33:11,800
Speaker 1: goes into the Super Bowl nineteen and o, and Patrick

661
00:33:11,880 --> 00:33:15,160
Speaker 1: Mahomes is an underdog because there's no way he wouldn't

662
00:33:15,160 --> 00:33:17,200
Speaker 1: be right. There's no way bookmakers are going to have

663
00:33:17,240 --> 00:33:19,840
Speaker 1: a nineteen and OHO team three loss team, even if

664
00:33:19,840 --> 00:33:22,320
Speaker 1: it's Patrick Mahomes, and he won't be the underdog. I

665
00:33:22,360 --> 00:33:24,280
Speaker 1: can't wait for that day, and I can't wait to

666
00:33:24,400 --> 00:33:26,120
Speaker 1: unload my kid's college fund.

667
00:33:26,520 --> 00:33:30,600
Speaker 4: Patrick Mahomes the craziest part about that stat though, Chad,

668
00:33:31,080 --> 00:33:33,040
Speaker 4: he did start his career and I believe this is

669
00:33:33,160 --> 00:33:36,760
Speaker 4: right being a favorite in thirteen consecutive playoff games, he

670
00:33:36,960 --> 00:33:40,760
Speaker 4: was one start away from tying Peyton Mannings record, and

671
00:33:40,840 --> 00:33:42,400
Speaker 4: then all of a sudden he was a dog in

672
00:33:42,520 --> 00:33:47,400
Speaker 4: five of six. So literally, it's just the dichotomy between

673
00:33:47,440 --> 00:33:49,920
Speaker 4: the two and the difference of runs that they had

674
00:33:50,000 --> 00:33:52,320
Speaker 4: in the teams just kind of makes it very fascinating.

675
00:33:54,080 --> 00:33:55,320
Speaker 2: What else, a Dad, You got anything else?

676
00:33:55,680 --> 00:33:55,840
Speaker 3: Yeah?

677
00:33:55,880 --> 00:33:57,360
Speaker 4: I mean I got a bunch of stuff here. Last

678
00:33:57,400 --> 00:34:00,480
Speaker 4: seventeen Super Bowls, Dogs now ten and seven straight up,

679
00:34:00,760 --> 00:34:03,640
Speaker 4: twelve and five against the spread. So dogs have been

680
00:34:03,720 --> 00:34:06,320
Speaker 4: really running the game, especially when the two teams are tight.

681
00:34:06,440 --> 00:34:09,400
Speaker 4: And it's been the sixteenth consecutive year where the spread's

682
00:34:09,440 --> 00:34:13,040
Speaker 4: been I believe under seven, so tight games. Two weeks

683
00:34:13,080 --> 00:34:15,360
Speaker 4: of prep dogs have been pretty good. And we mentioned

684
00:34:15,400 --> 00:34:17,840
Speaker 4: this on the first pot I did right off the

685
00:34:17,920 --> 00:34:22,759
Speaker 4: matchup being set NFC favorites now is just terrible. So

686
00:34:23,200 --> 00:34:25,839
Speaker 4: covering just once in the last eleven games dating back

687
00:34:25,840 --> 00:34:27,959
Speaker 4: to nineteen ninety six, and we kind of talked about

688
00:34:27,960 --> 00:34:28,640
Speaker 4: that and actually it.

689
00:34:28,680 --> 00:34:29,600
Speaker 2: Came exactly true.

690
00:34:29,680 --> 00:34:29,799
Speaker 3: Right.

691
00:34:30,000 --> 00:34:32,239
Speaker 4: We were like, what was the reason oh the great

692
00:34:32,320 --> 00:34:35,160
Speaker 4: quarterbacks on the other side, Well happened again.

693
00:34:37,920 --> 00:34:39,719
Speaker 2: You got one more that I want to read, which is.

694
00:34:41,440 --> 00:34:44,520
Speaker 1: I have about it that the last seventeen Super Bowls,

695
00:34:44,560 --> 00:34:48,399
Speaker 1: the team with the better record entering the game has

696
00:34:48,520 --> 00:34:50,040
Speaker 1: covered once.

697
00:34:52,200 --> 00:34:55,439
Speaker 4: Unbelievable this super Bowl.

698
00:34:55,520 --> 00:34:56,640
Speaker 2: Man, There's so many.

699
00:34:56,600 --> 00:35:00,680
Speaker 1: Signals that you can glean from what has happened, And like,

700
00:35:01,000 --> 00:35:04,680
Speaker 1: I think the hardest part with betting sometimes is assuming

701
00:35:04,800 --> 00:35:06,799
Speaker 1: this is going to be the time where that doesn't work.

702
00:35:07,239 --> 00:35:11,160
Speaker 1: It's like betting the unders in primetime games, betting regression

703
00:35:11,360 --> 00:35:12,200
Speaker 1: in some sort.

704
00:35:12,040 --> 00:35:12,399
Speaker 2: Of a way.

705
00:35:13,480 --> 00:35:18,800
Speaker 1: We got to figure out a way, guys, Guys, this

706
00:35:19,000 --> 00:35:22,239
Speaker 1: is the killer app that I'm about to suggest. We

707
00:35:22,400 --> 00:35:26,239
Speaker 1: figure out how do we figure out which of these

708
00:35:26,280 --> 00:35:28,000
Speaker 1: signals are irrefutable?

709
00:35:28,600 --> 00:35:29,319
Speaker 2: Do you know what I mean?

710
00:35:30,040 --> 00:35:30,239
Speaker 3: Sure?

711
00:35:30,320 --> 00:35:33,279
Speaker 2: Which signals are irrefutable as a prediction.

712
00:35:33,040 --> 00:35:37,879
Speaker 1: Of what will happen next? Evan, Evan, you got six

713
00:35:38,000 --> 00:35:39,680
Speaker 1: months to figure it out.

714
00:35:40,520 --> 00:35:42,920
Speaker 4: I was gonna say it's the six Pillars of something.

715
00:35:43,040 --> 00:35:45,520
Speaker 4: It's got a creative name to it, but what it

716
00:35:45,600 --> 00:35:48,680
Speaker 4: really should be, Chad, is anytime you bet against Patrick Mahomes,

717
00:35:48,719 --> 00:35:51,359
Speaker 4: your phone should just electrocute you. That is most likely

718
00:35:51,440 --> 00:35:53,360
Speaker 4: what the situation, and if he's an underdog and you

719
00:35:53,440 --> 00:35:56,000
Speaker 4: bet against him, they should just completely take your phone away.

720
00:35:56,239 --> 00:35:57,680
Speaker 3: So that's probably the easiest way to do it.

721
00:35:58,120 --> 00:35:59,240
Speaker 2: You know how I like to manage.

722
00:36:00,040 --> 00:36:02,960
Speaker 1: I like to think big picture. You can figure out

723
00:36:02,960 --> 00:36:05,960
Speaker 1: the details. Just tell me what the answer is going

724
00:36:06,040 --> 00:36:10,440
Speaker 1: to be. That's it, all right for the second time.

725
00:36:10,800 --> 00:36:14,360
Speaker 1: Catch every episode of the Favorites live on YouTube. For

726
00:36:14,400 --> 00:36:17,080
Speaker 1: those enjoying on YouTube, don't forget to give us a like.

727
00:36:17,440 --> 00:36:23,560
Speaker 1: Subscribe to the Action Network YouTube page. And now a

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Speaker 1: two minutes. We've run the numbers, We've done the math.

736
00:36:49,880 --> 00:36:50,920
Speaker 2: Evan is on it.

737
00:36:51,400 --> 00:36:54,560
Speaker 1: Factor is less expensive than takeout in every meal is

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741
00:37:08,560 --> 00:37:11,600
Speaker 1: get fifty percent off. All right, this was a great

742
00:37:11,680 --> 00:37:16,000
Speaker 1: stat simon An all credit to Evan. He told us

743
00:37:16,040 --> 00:37:23,680
Speaker 1: before the season began that the preseason Super Bowl favorites

744
00:37:24,520 --> 00:37:30,000
Speaker 1: with a with odds of twelve hundred or shorter had

745
00:37:30,040 --> 00:37:34,080
Speaker 1: won nine of the past ten Super Bowls. Kansas City

746
00:37:34,680 --> 00:37:37,040
Speaker 1: went off at six to one. So now it makes

747
00:37:37,080 --> 00:37:40,279
Speaker 1: it ten of the eleven past Super Bowl champions with

748
00:37:40,320 --> 00:37:44,000
Speaker 1: preseason odds of twelve to one or shorter have won

749
00:37:44,040 --> 00:37:49,160
Speaker 1: the Super Bowl. So I reminded everybody that in this

750
00:37:49,320 --> 00:37:52,640
Speaker 1: season I did a little round robin. I bet you

751
00:37:52,719 --> 00:37:58,080
Speaker 1: know Cincinnati, San Francisco, Cincinnati, Philly, Cincinnati, or San Francisco, Casey,

752
00:37:58,640 --> 00:38:02,440
Speaker 1: San Francisco, Buffalo, et cetera, et cetera, et cetera, And

753
00:38:02,560 --> 00:38:06,360
Speaker 1: I got a matchup of San Francisco Kansas City at

754
00:38:06,440 --> 00:38:07,160
Speaker 1: twenty two to one.

755
00:38:08,640 --> 00:38:09,720
Speaker 2: Looking ahead to the futures.

756
00:38:09,719 --> 00:38:11,719
Speaker 1: And we'll talk about totals for a second for our

757
00:38:11,800 --> 00:38:15,439
Speaker 1: two teams here, but looking ahead of the futures, nine

758
00:38:15,520 --> 00:38:17,200
Speaker 1: Ers are six to one at Bet three sixty five,

759
00:38:17,840 --> 00:38:21,279
Speaker 1: Kansas City is seven to one, Ravens nine to one.

760
00:38:22,239 --> 00:38:28,560
Speaker 1: Bill's ten to one, Detroit Lions twelve to one, just

761
00:38:28,680 --> 00:38:33,920
Speaker 1: on the outside, Bengals fourteen to one, Cowboys sixteen to one.

762
00:38:37,239 --> 00:38:42,279
Speaker 1: First question, if we're betting a Super Bowl matchup, would

763
00:38:42,320 --> 00:38:45,080
Speaker 1: you do a round robin with these five twelve to

764
00:38:45,200 --> 00:38:46,120
Speaker 1: one teams right now?

765
00:38:47,520 --> 00:38:52,759
Speaker 3: Yeah? Sure, it's fun. But people, right now, in a

766
00:38:52,840 --> 00:38:55,520
Speaker 3: high yel savings count, you can get five percent back

767
00:38:55,680 --> 00:38:57,400
Speaker 3: on your money. Okay, do you want to tie your

768
00:38:57,440 --> 00:38:59,759
Speaker 3: money up with a sportsbook for the next year or

769
00:38:59,800 --> 00:39:01,520
Speaker 3: do you want to do that with your money? Please

770
00:39:01,600 --> 00:39:05,680
Speaker 3: do the latter. Don't. Don't make these bets like what

771
00:39:05,760 --> 00:39:08,360
Speaker 3: Chat's talking about is true. What I bet on is

772
00:39:08,640 --> 00:39:12,400
Speaker 3: the unicorns, and it happens way more often you'd believe it,

773
00:39:12,520 --> 00:39:14,960
Speaker 3: even this last season. Okay, I was all in on

774
00:39:15,040 --> 00:39:17,120
Speaker 3: the Rams. I talked about the Rams for months. You

775
00:39:17,200 --> 00:39:18,560
Speaker 3: could have got them at one hundred and fifty to

776
00:39:18,680 --> 00:39:21,239
Speaker 3: one to make a Super Bowl run. Could you not

777
00:39:21,320 --> 00:39:24,279
Speaker 3: have seen them beat that Lion's team right a couple

778
00:39:24,320 --> 00:39:25,680
Speaker 3: of bounces to go their way? That could they have

779
00:39:25,719 --> 00:39:28,480
Speaker 3: beat Tampa on the road? Probably? Could they have beaten

780
00:39:28,560 --> 00:39:31,240
Speaker 3: this forty nine Ers team that seemed like they struggled

781
00:39:31,280 --> 00:39:33,200
Speaker 3: down towards the end of the season right Oerra three

782
00:39:33,239 --> 00:39:35,600
Speaker 3: against the spread for the forty nine ers in the playoffs.

783
00:39:35,840 --> 00:39:37,480
Speaker 3: I'm sure the Rams could have done it right. So

784
00:39:38,160 --> 00:39:39,839
Speaker 3: that's what if I'm going to tie up my money

785
00:39:39,880 --> 00:39:41,759
Speaker 3: for the next year. I wanted to be in a

786
00:39:41,800 --> 00:39:45,200
Speaker 3: long shot. Now people take it out of context where

787
00:39:45,200 --> 00:39:47,879
Speaker 3: we're like these this show thinks stuff. The Chicago Bears

788
00:39:47,920 --> 00:39:49,399
Speaker 3: are going to win the Super Bowl because we gave

789
00:39:49,480 --> 00:39:51,759
Speaker 3: them out at one hundred and one. Fucking hey, we

790
00:39:51,800 --> 00:39:54,680
Speaker 3: did not think that. Maybe we did once it came

791
00:39:54,719 --> 00:39:58,120
Speaker 3: to August, but I definitely didn't think that betting in February.

792
00:39:58,280 --> 00:40:00,279
Speaker 3: And what I'm betting here is I I want to

793
00:40:00,320 --> 00:40:03,360
Speaker 3: bet long shots on things that might happen, that could happen,

794
00:40:03,920 --> 00:40:06,480
Speaker 3: and you know, things could break these teams ways, and

795
00:40:06,520 --> 00:40:08,919
Speaker 3: that's how they could get there. So if I'm gonna

796
00:40:08,920 --> 00:40:11,600
Speaker 3: give you my what I've already bet again, this is

797
00:40:11,640 --> 00:40:13,799
Speaker 3: gonna I'll start the bottom. We're gonna get real ugly people.

798
00:40:14,360 --> 00:40:16,840
Speaker 3: My first bet, I made Giants at one hundred and

799
00:40:16,840 --> 00:40:19,160
Speaker 3: twenty five to one on bet three six five. Do

800
00:40:19,280 --> 00:40:21,360
Speaker 3: I really think the Giants are gonna win the Super Bowl? No?

801
00:40:21,640 --> 00:40:24,080
Speaker 3: Do I think their division is open? Yeah? I don't

802
00:40:24,120 --> 00:40:26,040
Speaker 3: think Dallas and Eagles are as good as people perceive.

803
00:40:26,080 --> 00:40:28,719
Speaker 3: And I think if Daniel Jodges is healthy, they get

804
00:40:28,719 --> 00:40:30,319
Speaker 3: a little better. I mean, even look at what they

805
00:40:30,400 --> 00:40:33,759
Speaker 3: did with Tommy DeVito. People like it's all there. The

806
00:40:33,840 --> 00:40:37,040
Speaker 3: Giants could make some crazy run. Do I really believe it? No,

807
00:40:37,320 --> 00:40:40,399
Speaker 3: that's that's gonna start with the Giants. They're my longest one.

808
00:40:40,840 --> 00:40:44,160
Speaker 3: Next up is Pittsburgh. Pittsburgh is heavily rumored to be

809
00:40:44,239 --> 00:40:45,560
Speaker 3: out there to get Justin Fields.

810
00:40:45,719 --> 00:40:47,840
Speaker 2: Yes, I was gonna ask.

811
00:40:47,719 --> 00:40:49,680
Speaker 1: You about this one because I'm looking at this one

812
00:40:49,719 --> 00:40:52,200
Speaker 1: and like, of course we're going to bet the Steelers.

813
00:40:52,239 --> 00:40:54,560
Speaker 1: I want to remind people that a few years ago

814
00:40:55,640 --> 00:40:58,799
Speaker 1: we had both bet on the Buccaneers at very long

815
00:40:58,920 --> 00:41:01,760
Speaker 1: odds before before Tom Brady went to the Bucks because

816
00:41:01,760 --> 00:41:03,600
Speaker 1: he was rumored to be as part of the sweepstakes.

817
00:41:04,640 --> 00:41:07,879
Speaker 3: And like, again, that's another great one where I again

818
00:41:08,000 --> 00:41:10,040
Speaker 3: dumbest luckiest bet ever. I hit that at sixty to

819
00:41:10,120 --> 00:41:12,440
Speaker 3: one Tampa to win a Super Bowl because Tom got

820
00:41:12,480 --> 00:41:16,320
Speaker 3: traded there or with there as a free agent. Again,

821
00:41:16,600 --> 00:41:20,239
Speaker 3: these are ugly people, Arizona Cardinals. I don't think there's

822
00:41:20,360 --> 00:41:22,600
Speaker 3: terrible to perceive, even this year, they had. They had

823
00:41:22,600 --> 00:41:24,439
Speaker 3: a bunch of games where it's like, Okay, this team

824
00:41:25,040 --> 00:41:27,560
Speaker 3: is not that terrible. And you saw Kyler Murray came back.

825
00:41:28,120 --> 00:41:30,440
Speaker 3: He's a spark, like as much hate as he gets,

826
00:41:31,280 --> 00:41:33,759
Speaker 3: he is what all these people are hoping Bryce s

827
00:41:33,760 --> 00:41:36,600
Speaker 3: Young would be right. It's like these fast, short quarterbacks

828
00:41:36,640 --> 00:41:39,080
Speaker 3: that could put the ball downfield. Now you added they

829
00:41:39,120 --> 00:41:41,279
Speaker 3: might take Marvin Harris Junior with their first pick, and

830
00:41:41,360 --> 00:41:44,200
Speaker 3: now he has an episode still on the outside. I

831
00:41:44,360 --> 00:41:46,320
Speaker 3: love that upside for Arizona. The only reason I'm not

832
00:41:46,320 --> 00:41:48,200
Speaker 3: putting a lot on it is because their division. It's

833
00:41:48,280 --> 00:41:50,600
Speaker 3: like the FY nine Ers, They're going to be right

834
00:41:50,680 --> 00:41:53,680
Speaker 3: back here. They're heredy cost them point three percent of

835
00:41:53,719 --> 00:41:56,160
Speaker 3: their salary cap, like they got the money. The FY

836
00:41:56,239 --> 00:41:58,680
Speaker 3: nine Ers should be back. So again, not too heavy

837
00:41:58,800 --> 00:42:01,959
Speaker 3: in Arizona, just because of that division. Chat already mentioned

838
00:42:01,960 --> 00:42:05,279
Speaker 3: them Tampa sixty six to one. I just like the

839
00:42:05,400 --> 00:42:07,640
Speaker 3: value there on Baker. It's like in that division, I

840
00:42:07,680 --> 00:42:09,760
Speaker 3: got another team about to bring up. It's just because

841
00:42:09,760 --> 00:42:12,680
Speaker 3: of the division they're in to cap it out. Even

842
00:42:12,719 --> 00:42:14,600
Speaker 3: though this has moved Atlanta. I saw them at fifty

843
00:42:14,640 --> 00:42:16,640
Speaker 3: to one, now they're down to forty to one. There's

844
00:42:16,680 --> 00:42:20,080
Speaker 3: my last one Atlanta. Like Atlanta, if they go get

845
00:42:20,239 --> 00:42:24,000
Speaker 3: Justin Fields, if they go get Kirk Cousins instantly, that's

846
00:42:24,080 --> 00:42:26,160
Speaker 3: going to be a good team. Like they have all

847
00:42:26,239 --> 00:42:29,040
Speaker 3: the pieces. The only thing missing all season was the quarterback.

848
00:42:29,120 --> 00:42:32,359
Speaker 3: So I hate that they've moved so much because they're

849
00:42:32,400 --> 00:42:34,040
Speaker 3: right at the threshold. I region don't like to take

850
00:42:34,120 --> 00:42:35,920
Speaker 3: forty to one at this point of the year, but

851
00:42:37,000 --> 00:42:38,879
Speaker 3: if you can shop around, this is about three six

852
00:42:39,000 --> 00:42:41,520
Speaker 3: five or on shop rounds. If any other book has

853
00:42:41,520 --> 00:42:43,279
Speaker 3: them at fifty to one. Still, I like the value

854
00:42:43,280 --> 00:42:46,000
Speaker 3: in Atlanta, just in case they do get a quarterback

855
00:42:46,040 --> 00:42:46,319
Speaker 3: in there.

856
00:42:47,239 --> 00:42:52,560
Speaker 1: It's funny when I look at these top five Niners, Chiefs, Ravens, Bills, Lions.

857
00:42:53,560 --> 00:42:54,879
Speaker 3: How about Lions being top five?

858
00:42:55,320 --> 00:43:01,080
Speaker 1: I know it almost looks it looks disorienting, to be honest,

859
00:43:01,600 --> 00:43:04,640
Speaker 1: because obviously we know what they did last year and

860
00:43:04,680 --> 00:43:06,359
Speaker 1: there's gonna be a lot of momentum for them.

861
00:43:07,080 --> 00:43:10,280
Speaker 3: But the Chief's the only bet though when you talk AFC, right.

862
00:43:10,680 --> 00:43:14,640
Speaker 1: Yeah, Like the Lines to me looks like I feel

863
00:43:14,680 --> 00:43:19,000
Speaker 1: like they might be overvalued because of expectations. I might

864
00:43:19,200 --> 00:43:21,520
Speaker 1: wait and hope that the Lines lose a couple of games,

865
00:43:21,560 --> 00:43:24,479
Speaker 1: early drop and then yeah, like a virtue of their team.

866
00:43:25,640 --> 00:43:29,879
Speaker 1: Then I look at the Ravens and the Bills. Why

867
00:43:29,920 --> 00:43:33,520
Speaker 1: would I bet on either of those when they play

868
00:43:33,560 --> 00:43:35,839
Speaker 1: in the same division as in the same conference as

869
00:43:35,880 --> 00:43:36,280
Speaker 1: the Chiefs.

870
00:43:37,480 --> 00:43:40,840
Speaker 3: There's just no mean factor. He's broken both of them mentally,

871
00:43:41,040 --> 00:43:43,560
Speaker 3: he's broken them. You can't tell me it hasn't like

872
00:43:43,560 --> 00:43:47,520
Speaker 3: people that keep being denial. It's like Josh Allen. I

873
00:43:47,560 --> 00:43:49,279
Speaker 3: don't know how much therapy he's gonna have to do,

874
00:43:50,200 --> 00:43:52,400
Speaker 3: but come on, like you just talked about it, like

875
00:43:52,880 --> 00:43:56,480
Speaker 3: Michael Jordan broke people's wills. He broke that whole air,

876
00:43:56,600 --> 00:43:59,600
Speaker 3: That whole nineties air was broken because of Jordan. We're

877
00:43:59,640 --> 00:44:03,160
Speaker 3: seeing it for Mahomes. Like again, the Jazz, they should

878
00:44:03,200 --> 00:44:06,560
Speaker 3: have won multiple championships and he broke them. Even he

879
00:44:06,600 --> 00:44:08,600
Speaker 3: would say they had better teams and he still beat

880
00:44:08,640 --> 00:44:10,480
Speaker 3: them just because of what he could do. So it

881
00:44:10,520 --> 00:44:12,520
Speaker 3: feels the same rhythm, Mahmes. I'm right on board with Chad.

882
00:44:12,600 --> 00:44:14,880
Speaker 3: It's like even the gout Dallas Cowboys. I almost got

883
00:44:14,920 --> 00:44:17,919
Speaker 3: sucked back in the Cowboys were twenty to one. Dak

884
00:44:18,400 --> 00:44:20,640
Speaker 3: for all we know, Dak is mentally broken. The dude

885
00:44:21,160 --> 00:44:23,440
Speaker 3: Jordan Love looked like the season bet when they played

886
00:44:23,640 --> 00:44:26,680
Speaker 3: like he got outclassed by Jordan Love. So I'd much

887
00:44:26,800 --> 00:44:31,239
Speaker 3: rather throw money on green Bay at third price. Let's

888
00:44:31,239 --> 00:44:33,799
Speaker 3: see where they're at. Green Bay is twenty two to one.

889
00:44:33,920 --> 00:44:36,759
Speaker 3: I rather bet them than I would Dallas because at

890
00:44:36,800 --> 00:44:38,680
Speaker 3: least I know Jordan Love has what it takes in

891
00:44:38,680 --> 00:44:40,600
Speaker 3: the playoffs. He doesn't let the moment get too big

892
00:44:40,680 --> 00:44:43,640
Speaker 3: for him. So yeah, people, if you think I'm betting

893
00:44:43,680 --> 00:44:45,879
Speaker 3: these futures, I really think what Chad said so true.

894
00:44:45,920 --> 00:44:48,240
Speaker 3: It's like, really dive into it. Can you really trust

895
00:44:48,360 --> 00:44:50,839
Speaker 3: these teams at these prices? And I just don't think

896
00:44:50,880 --> 00:44:52,279
Speaker 3: I can. Where It's like, I rather bet on these

897
00:44:52,280 --> 00:44:54,759
Speaker 3: other random teams at a better price that to me

898
00:44:54,880 --> 00:44:56,879
Speaker 3: had the same exact chances this Cowboys team does.

899
00:44:57,840 --> 00:45:02,000
Speaker 1: The only AFC team I would bet on Cincinnati Bengals

900
00:45:02,120 --> 00:45:04,759
Speaker 1: because I do think Burrow has proven it. Burrow has

901
00:45:04,800 --> 00:45:09,200
Speaker 1: beaten Mahomes multiple times. They have a in Anarroumo, they

902
00:45:09,239 --> 00:45:12,440
Speaker 1: have a coordinator on defense who I think is Spags

903
00:45:12,640 --> 00:45:17,480
Speaker 1: like in his ability to be creative and create schemes

904
00:45:17,760 --> 00:45:21,440
Speaker 1: that will challenge Mahomes. And they also have so much talent.

905
00:45:22,000 --> 00:45:23,200
Speaker 1: So fourteen to one for the best.

906
00:45:23,239 --> 00:45:24,759
Speaker 3: It was like the last year of it, right, because

907
00:45:24,760 --> 00:45:27,080
Speaker 3: they're tagging T Higgs like this feels like the last

908
00:45:27,160 --> 00:45:30,319
Speaker 3: year of h Chase T Higgs. You know, it's all

909
00:45:30,440 --> 00:45:32,680
Speaker 3: there for this this Bengals team coming off an injury

910
00:45:32,760 --> 00:45:34,719
Speaker 3: to right, it's good by low spot two for them.

911
00:45:34,880 --> 00:45:36,600
Speaker 1: So since he feels like a good one to me,

912
00:45:36,680 --> 00:45:39,600
Speaker 1: they could get out strong. So that's that's an interesting

913
00:45:39,640 --> 00:45:39,960
Speaker 1: one to me.

914
00:45:40,480 --> 00:45:40,799
Speaker 2: Right now.

915
00:45:40,920 --> 00:45:45,600
Speaker 1: The totals for season wins Chiefs ten and a half, nine,

916
00:45:45,680 --> 00:45:46,640
Speaker 1: Ers eleven and a half.

917
00:45:47,120 --> 00:45:48,839
Speaker 2: I mean, how do you not bet the Chiefs over

918
00:45:48,920 --> 00:45:49,200
Speaker 2: right now?

919
00:45:49,320 --> 00:45:52,200
Speaker 3: What is be? Three? Six five? Hung their totals already.

920
00:45:52,160 --> 00:45:54,040
Speaker 2: That's what I'm looking at regular season wins?

921
00:45:54,200 --> 00:45:57,480
Speaker 3: Shit, just those two? Just those two? Okay, that makes sense. Yeah,

922
00:45:57,520 --> 00:46:04,239
Speaker 3: that's psycho level. Gon do anything, but fuck man, I

923
00:46:04,280 --> 00:46:07,000
Speaker 3: guess you got to take Mahomes over right, Damn of

924
00:46:07,120 --> 00:46:10,840
Speaker 3: course you do. Yeah, that's crazy though they already hung it.

925
00:46:11,200 --> 00:46:13,200
Speaker 3: Do you imagine locking up your money on a season

926
00:46:13,239 --> 00:46:15,480
Speaker 3: win total for a year? That's insane?

927
00:46:16,000 --> 00:46:16,200
Speaker 2: Yeah.

928
00:46:16,440 --> 00:46:18,600
Speaker 1: And look, we're gonna We've got a lot of draft

929
00:46:18,640 --> 00:46:20,640
Speaker 1: coming up, We've got a lot of free agency coming up.

930
00:46:20,800 --> 00:46:24,320
Speaker 1: We're gonna have experts and guests on the podcasts in

931
00:46:24,440 --> 00:46:28,239
Speaker 1: all these areas talking about ex pro players, and so

932
00:46:28,480 --> 00:46:29,960
Speaker 1: it's gonna be a lot of fun. We're gonna dig

933
00:46:30,040 --> 00:46:31,960
Speaker 1: in deeply in get a lot of actionable stuff as

934
00:46:32,000 --> 00:46:34,440
Speaker 1: we go along. But I like what we're building here, Simon,

935
00:46:34,560 --> 00:46:36,400
Speaker 1: I like. I think we've got a nice little foundation

936
00:46:36,800 --> 00:46:41,040
Speaker 1: to build on for the season. As a reminder, the

937
00:46:41,120 --> 00:46:43,640
Speaker 1: Favorite podcast is presented by Bet three six five.

938
00:46:44,040 --> 00:46:45,200
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939
00:46:45,239 --> 00:46:48,960
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947
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948
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949
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Speaker 1: New Jersey, Ohio, Virginia, or eighteen and older in Kentucky.

950
00:47:17,600 --> 00:47:19,799
Speaker 1: Gambling problem called one eight hundred gambler or one eight

951
00:47:19,880 --> 00:47:24,920
Speaker 1: hundred bets off. In Iowa terms, conditioned restrictions apply. Simon,

952
00:47:25,160 --> 00:47:26,799
Speaker 1: you're back in New Jersey. You've been back in New

953
00:47:26,840 --> 00:47:30,239
Speaker 1: Jersey for a couple of weeks. Can you officially and

954
00:47:30,320 --> 00:47:32,439
Speaker 1: finally tell people so they can stop asking you why

955
00:47:32,520 --> 00:47:33,799
Speaker 1: you were in Hawaii for so long?

956
00:47:34,680 --> 00:47:36,200
Speaker 3: Well, I did tell people about our live shows. That

957
00:47:36,280 --> 00:47:39,640
Speaker 3: was a little treat to our diehard listeners, where in person,

958
00:47:39,760 --> 00:47:42,280
Speaker 3: I was happy to tell them. But yeah, Chad knows,

959
00:47:42,880 --> 00:47:44,440
Speaker 3: I got in a little bit of trouble last year.

960
00:47:44,440 --> 00:47:46,640
Speaker 3: I basically, you know, the group I worked for, a

961
00:47:46,680 --> 00:47:49,120
Speaker 3: lot of them are oldered guys, and they all live

962
00:47:49,360 --> 00:47:52,880
Speaker 3: in Vegas. And I just viewed it that everything going

963
00:47:52,880 --> 00:47:54,879
Speaker 3: on the East Coast is a lot different right now

964
00:47:55,120 --> 00:47:57,800
Speaker 3: than what's going on in Vegas. It's like two different worlds.

965
00:47:58,360 --> 00:47:59,880
Speaker 3: A lot of different people here too, a lot of

966
00:48:00,120 --> 00:48:03,040
Speaker 3: it's the game has changed. It's like I have so

967
00:48:03,200 --> 00:48:05,400
Speaker 3: many books here. There's just so it's just so different.

968
00:48:05,640 --> 00:48:08,680
Speaker 3: And I basically was going to try to get out

969
00:48:08,680 --> 00:48:10,560
Speaker 3: of a contract and start my own little thing up,

970
00:48:10,760 --> 00:48:13,200
Speaker 3: start my own group. I got caught for the Like

971
00:48:13,320 --> 00:48:15,120
Speaker 3: the easiest way to say is I got caught before

972
00:48:15,160 --> 00:48:19,319
Speaker 3: even getting anything going, and uh, you got gone. Yeah,

973
00:48:19,880 --> 00:48:22,000
Speaker 3: I was told I had to leave the East Coast

974
00:48:22,040 --> 00:48:25,279
Speaker 3: and I had to move west. Being the asshole I am,

975
00:48:25,400 --> 00:48:26,640
Speaker 3: I was like, well, I'm gonna stick it to these

976
00:48:26,680 --> 00:48:29,200
Speaker 3: guys because they're paying for it. I'm gonna make them

977
00:48:29,440 --> 00:48:32,960
Speaker 3: pay for me to move to Hawaii. And yeah, joke

978
00:48:33,120 --> 00:48:35,120
Speaker 3: was on me, like it was cool for two months,

979
00:48:35,840 --> 00:48:38,399
Speaker 3: but quickly did I realize I am in the middle

980
00:48:38,400 --> 00:48:41,239
Speaker 3: of the Pacific, thousands of miles from a sports book,

981
00:48:41,840 --> 00:48:44,680
Speaker 3: and yeah, it was awful. It was. It was really

982
00:48:44,760 --> 00:48:47,000
Speaker 3: tough trying to work there and deal with people, especially

983
00:48:47,040 --> 00:48:49,680
Speaker 3: on the East Coast on those different hours doing our

984
00:48:49,719 --> 00:48:54,120
Speaker 3: show at those different hours. Luckily, fleu to Vegas February first,

985
00:48:54,560 --> 00:48:56,200
Speaker 3: got the clear that I can move back to Jersey.

986
00:48:56,280 --> 00:48:58,799
Speaker 3: Now I am back in Jersey and hopefully next season

987
00:48:58,840 --> 00:49:01,200
Speaker 3: I will be as well. It's just I love it here.

988
00:49:01,280 --> 00:49:03,799
Speaker 3: I love the sports books, and I am a true

989
00:49:03,840 --> 00:49:06,440
Speaker 3: degenerated heart where it's like I knew I missed the books,

990
00:49:06,480 --> 00:49:08,879
Speaker 3: but I really didn't realize how bad I was going

991
00:49:08,920 --> 00:49:10,680
Speaker 3: through during the season twil I was miles away. So

992
00:49:11,160 --> 00:49:14,560
Speaker 3: love to WHI love the people Hawaii amazing experience, survived

993
00:49:14,880 --> 00:49:17,800
Speaker 3: a once in a lifetime horrible fires. Happy to be

994
00:49:17,920 --> 00:49:20,040
Speaker 3: back on the East Coast where there are no wildfires

995
00:49:20,160 --> 00:49:23,560
Speaker 3: and my cheese steak doesn't cost thirty dollars and tastes

996
00:49:23,600 --> 00:49:25,919
Speaker 3: like shit. It's nice to be back on the East

997
00:49:25,960 --> 00:49:26,799
Speaker 3: Coast and.

998
00:49:27,000 --> 00:49:29,120
Speaker 2: We're in the same time zone and only two hours

999
00:49:29,160 --> 00:49:31,800
Speaker 2: away from each other. And I think about you saying

1000
00:49:31,840 --> 00:49:32,279
Speaker 2: how hard it.

1001
00:49:32,360 --> 00:49:35,080
Speaker 1: Is to live in Hawaii while I'm literally looking out

1002
00:49:35,120 --> 00:49:38,840
Speaker 1: my window at a blizzard that has been going on

1003
00:49:39,160 --> 00:49:43,200
Speaker 1: since midnight and trees that are falling down because the

1004
00:49:43,320 --> 00:49:45,400
Speaker 1: snow is so heavy.

1005
00:49:45,680 --> 00:49:49,360
Speaker 2: So, yeah, welcome back to the East Coast, sucker.

1006
00:49:49,960 --> 00:49:52,840
Speaker 3: Yeah, I love to why, but I am very happy

1007
00:49:52,960 --> 00:49:54,840
Speaker 3: back with all my degenerates on the East Coast.

1008
00:49:55,719 --> 00:49:56,000
Speaker 2: Listen.

1009
00:49:56,160 --> 00:49:59,160
Speaker 1: We're glad you're back too, as are all of our listeners.

1010
00:49:59,440 --> 00:50:01,960
Speaker 1: Be sure to catch our next episode of the Favorites

1011
00:50:02,560 --> 00:50:04,560
Speaker 1: live on the Action Network. You You two page every

1012
00:50:04,640 --> 00:50:08,160
Speaker 1: Tuesday at one forty five pm Eastern.

1013
00:50:08,239 --> 00:50:08,959
Speaker 2: Download us from.

1014
00:50:08,840 --> 00:50:12,400
Speaker 1: Spotify, Apple Podcasts, wherever you get your pods, rate, review, subscribe,

1015
00:50:12,480 --> 00:50:13,719
Speaker 1: leave us five stars.

1016
00:50:13,719 --> 00:50:16,960
Speaker 2: Save whatever you want feedback as a gift until Tuesday,

1017
00:50:17,120 --> 00:50:28,040
Speaker 2: one pm Eastern. Love You, Action network reminds you please

1018
00:50:28,120 --> 00:50:31,520
Speaker 2: gamble responsibly. If you or someone you care about has

1019
00:50:31,560 --> 00:50:34,640
Speaker 2: a gambling problem, help Us available twenty four to seven

1020
00:50:34,840 --> 00:50:36,200
Speaker 2: at one eight hundred gambler