WEBVTT - Beating The Book: 2018 NFL MegaPod Week 16 Preview 0:00:03.400 --> 0:00:14.040 Check it on Man No Down Man Thursday Morning, decept 0:00:14.120 --> 0:00:19.079 the Beating the Book podcast, Megapod Week sixteen in the 0:00:19.200 --> 0:00:22.400 National Football League. Remember there's no guessing lines or megapod 0:00:22.520 --> 0:00:25.280 next week in between Christmas and New Year's week seventeen, 0:00:25.600 --> 0:00:27.920 we never do either. Don't get mad at us, get 0:00:27.960 --> 0:00:31.639 mad at Marco. You know you did. That was the 0:00:31.720 --> 0:00:35.000 tradition every single year. And then the one year you 0:00:35.080 --> 0:00:39.159 had this right idea, I just do a podcast and 0:00:39.240 --> 0:00:41.600 none of the games meant anything. And the couple that 0:00:41.760 --> 0:00:44.159 did the line was so high and you didn't know 0:00:44.200 --> 0:00:47.360 who was playing, and it was, you know, no other 0:00:47.360 --> 0:00:49.600 way to say it. It It was a clusterfuck of the show. 0:00:49.720 --> 0:00:51.880 It really, It really was how quickly did I throw 0:00:51.920 --> 0:00:53.920 you under the bus? There by the way. I was like, oh, yeah, 0:00:54.040 --> 0:00:56.760 I know, you know I could come you know, I 0:00:56.800 --> 0:00:59.040 could come back and throw you under the bus and 0:00:59.320 --> 0:01:02.360 tell people how close we were to ending this thing, 0:01:02.560 --> 0:01:06.720 uh two years ago that but yeah, we talked about 0:01:06.760 --> 0:01:08.440 that on the show, didn't we. Like The joke was 0:01:08.480 --> 0:01:11.120 I took you guys to quick Yeah, we we glossed 0:01:11.160 --> 0:01:14.120 it over. But you know, people don't realize how close 0:01:14.240 --> 0:01:16.920 that was. But the best part was You know, when 0:01:16.959 --> 0:01:19.560 you like almost break up with a girl and then 0:01:19.600 --> 0:01:22.520 you decide, oh, man, she is you know, she really 0:01:22.640 --> 0:01:25.560 is hot. And then you you know, you take the 0:01:25.560 --> 0:01:28.839 two of us to dinner, and you know, he pulled 0:01:28.880 --> 0:01:31.160 out all the stops we went to. Uh it was 0:01:31.240 --> 0:01:35.040 at the Aria, the all the name of the what 0:01:35.080 --> 0:01:39.840 was it? Carbone? Yes, yes, and I got the bone 0:01:39.920 --> 0:01:44.800 in Bill Parmesan and uh, yeah, we made you pay 0:01:44.840 --> 0:01:46.920 for We made you pay for that one. What do 0:01:46.920 --> 0:01:50.720 you mean you made me pay It was my my breakup, Like, 0:01:50.840 --> 0:01:53.560 it's not you guys, it's me. Well I know, but 0:01:53.720 --> 0:01:56.240 I I said, we we we didn't. We didn't go 0:01:56.360 --> 0:02:01.680 soft on you do you were paying no question about that, dude. 0:02:02.360 --> 0:02:04.080 And then then and then the next morning, I'm like, yeah, 0:02:04.160 --> 0:02:06.440 let's keep doing it. That's how it tear it out. Yeah, 0:02:09.919 --> 0:02:13.239 well that's a that's a great story, Marco. Probably a 0:02:13.280 --> 0:02:16.640 little too in depth, but I appreciate it. So probably 0:02:16.680 --> 0:02:18.800 you know what, some of these games this week, don't, 0:02:18.880 --> 0:02:24.320 you know, don't deserve the time. So that pent right. 0:02:24.680 --> 0:02:26.320 As always, the show I should point out, brought you 0:02:26.360 --> 0:02:28.480 by the score x dot com th h E S 0:02:28.520 --> 0:02:31.000 c O r e X. It's that secret stock market thing. 0:02:31.480 --> 0:02:36.200 We have the winner of the year long event coming 0:02:36.200 --> 0:02:39.680 on our show for wild Card weekend. Two weeks left 0:02:39.680 --> 0:02:42.520 in that contest, the year long beating the Book Megapod 0:02:42.600 --> 0:02:46.079 score X contest, who's got the biggest return on their portfolio? 0:02:46.600 --> 0:02:50.360 Right now, the leader remains profitable thirty four point eight percent, 0:02:50.960 --> 0:02:53.680 but the lead is narrowing just a little bit. Snap 0:02:53.720 --> 0:02:57.840 fade second place twenty nine and the week twenty eight 0:02:57.880 --> 0:03:00.000 point eight percent in third place, So we'll see if 0:03:00.000 --> 0:03:03.240 profitable can hang on and enjoined us the Megapod wild 0:03:03.240 --> 0:03:05.760 Card weekend. We look forward to that as always. That's 0:03:05.760 --> 0:03:07.560 the voice of Marco to Angela from Wage to Talk. 0:03:07.760 --> 0:03:10.320 I don't need to introduce him anymore. Aces here as 0:03:10.320 --> 0:03:12.799 well on the left from out of the sports betting diaspora. Hello, 0:03:12.919 --> 0:03:19.280 as here he is and joining us once again, kind 0:03:19.360 --> 0:03:22.000 enough to join us from the power Rank dot com 0:03:22.320 --> 0:03:24.720 Ed Fang, Good morning, Ed, Good morning guys. Thanks so 0:03:24.800 --> 0:03:26.880 much for having me on talks on the games. We 0:03:26.919 --> 0:03:29.880 appreciate it. Let's start. We always here's the thing we 0:03:29.960 --> 0:03:31.760 always start in the format where we start with the 0:03:31.800 --> 0:03:35.720 Monday night game. This Monday night game sucks if you 0:03:35.800 --> 0:03:38.280 have a betting angle on it, though by all means, 0:03:38.360 --> 0:03:42.040 feel free to extrapolate. If you don't, let's just move on. 0:03:42.360 --> 0:03:46.640 Denver three point favorites at Oakland Monday night. The game 0:03:46.880 --> 0:03:50.480 means NATA except for perhaps draft position. Denver coming off 0:03:50.560 --> 0:03:53.800 a horrific loss to the Browns on Saturday, in which 0:03:53.840 --> 0:03:55.880 fans Joseph decided to kick a field goal to make 0:03:55.880 --> 0:03:58.520 it seventeen to sixteen as opposed to going forward on 0:03:58.560 --> 0:04:01.920 fourth and one late. Oak Land. Well, they're just not 0:04:01.960 --> 0:04:04.200 that good at football. They're coming off You had another loss, 0:04:04.600 --> 0:04:09.480 Denver minus three at Oakland. Any thoughts on this one? Ed? Yeah, 0:04:09.520 --> 0:04:11.240 you know I'm gonna jump in here a little bit. Um. 0:04:11.680 --> 0:04:13.119 I don't like to side on this game, just because 0:04:13.160 --> 0:04:15.520 it's hard to figure out where Oakland's mind is, whether 0:04:15.560 --> 0:04:17.440 they're gonna play. You kind of gotta think that you're 0:04:17.440 --> 0:04:21.880 gonna be pumped up at home against the division rival. Um, 0:04:21.920 --> 0:04:25.120 but I'm not. I can't put numbers to motivation, so 0:04:25.160 --> 0:04:26.560 I'm not going to do that. But but one thing 0:04:26.600 --> 0:04:28.279 I do want to point out out about this game 0:04:28.920 --> 0:04:31.520 is that Oakland's fundamentals on offense have been pretty good. 0:04:32.040 --> 0:04:34.560 On my side, I look at pass offense in terms 0:04:34.600 --> 0:04:37.720 of adjusted yards for play, Oakland ranks and ninth. And 0:04:37.720 --> 0:04:39.479 remember they haven't had a Mark Cooper for the last 0:04:39.520 --> 0:04:42.600 however many weeks. And I've also started looking at success 0:04:42.720 --> 0:04:46.560 rate adjusted for strength of schedule this year. So success 0:04:46.600 --> 0:04:50.240 is simply if you get fifty yards on first down, 0:04:50.279 --> 0:04:52.760 on second down, and all the necessary yards on third 0:04:52.760 --> 0:04:57.200 and fourth down. Oakland's offense ranks tenth and uh so, 0:04:57.200 --> 0:04:59.120 so they're doing interesting things on that side of the ball. 0:04:59.160 --> 0:05:01.960 There awful on the other side of the ball. But 0:05:01.960 --> 0:05:04.520 but does this does kind of point to the over 0:05:04.600 --> 0:05:06.599 on this one? Um? I think it looked like it 0:05:06.640 --> 0:05:09.960 opened at forty five. Um, it's down to forty three. 0:05:10.000 --> 0:05:12.320 I really can't understand that, especially since Chris Harris Jr. 0:05:12.320 --> 0:05:17.560 Who's not playing for Denver Garyanne Connolly for Oakland cornerback 0:05:18.320 --> 0:05:20.840 is a little dinged up. So yeah, that's one thing 0:05:20.880 --> 0:05:24.800 I mean, I think I think Oakland's offense is possibly 0:05:25.200 --> 0:05:27.920 is decent, and uh the over is something that you 0:05:27.960 --> 0:05:31.080 should consider in this game. Yet three and a half 0:05:31.120 --> 0:05:33.719 somewhere in that pocket that's where the total is right now. 0:05:33.800 --> 0:05:38.120 Broncos and the Raiders on Monday Night, Marco, anything here Yeah, 0:05:38.160 --> 0:05:40.480 I like the Oakland side, Gil and this is what 0:05:40.560 --> 0:05:42.640 I'm gonna do the angle. By the time this game 0:05:42.720 --> 0:05:48.160 is played on Sunday, UM, Denver could possibly be officially eliminated. 0:05:48.200 --> 0:05:52.120 They're still mathematically alive. But I'll tell you who also 0:05:52.320 --> 0:05:56.000 is just mathematically alive is Fance Joseph Because the minute 0:05:56.040 --> 0:05:59.560 this team is officially out of the playoffs, he is 0:05:59.640 --> 0:06:03.400 also gonna be officially eliminated as coach of the Denver Broncos. 0:06:03.800 --> 0:06:06.960 And for the Oakland Raiders side, yes, what Ed said 0:06:06.960 --> 0:06:09.839 about the offense, Derek carrs looked good in the last 0:06:09.880 --> 0:06:13.520 three games UM Kansas City and Pittsburgh. They took both 0:06:13.560 --> 0:06:16.000 of those teams to the limit and got the win 0:06:16.080 --> 0:06:19.480 against Pittsburgh. Yeah, where those teams looking past them? Probably? 0:06:20.080 --> 0:06:24.080 But last week they did losing Cincinnati committed a few 0:06:24.560 --> 0:06:27.400 turnovers and it was a dead spot for them. Off 0:06:27.440 --> 0:06:30.120 of the Pittsburgh win and with this Monday night game 0:06:30.160 --> 0:06:32.880 on deck, traveling to the East Coast was a bad 0:06:32.920 --> 0:06:36.760 spot for them. But let's throw in the intangible. This 0:06:37.160 --> 0:06:39.520 for all intents and purposes, is probably going to be 0:06:39.560 --> 0:06:43.640 the final game in the Oakland Coliseum, and the Raiders 0:06:44.080 --> 0:06:46.320 they're gonna play somewhere next year, but it's not gonna 0:06:46.320 --> 0:06:49.880 be here. And as much as you know all of 0:06:49.920 --> 0:06:53.839 this stuff in Gil, you you're more uh in depth 0:06:53.920 --> 0:06:56.880 with in touch with the Bay Area. You know, the 0:06:56.960 --> 0:06:59.880 players had nothing to do with this. This is situation 0:07:00.040 --> 0:07:03.960 with ownership and city officials couldn't get a stadium done 0:07:04.000 --> 0:07:06.680 and all that, and that's why they're leaving. They want 0:07:06.680 --> 0:07:09.920 to give their fans, I think will win sending it out. 0:07:10.000 --> 0:07:13.400 And there's no coincidence that this was on Monday night, 0:07:13.440 --> 0:07:17.720 their last home game, the black Hole, Monday night, drinking 0:07:17.760 --> 0:07:20.040 all day, them going out on a high note. I 0:07:20.120 --> 0:07:24.240 think it's a great situational spot, especially if Denver's eliminated, 0:07:24.280 --> 0:07:27.400 and even if Denver's not, they get to play spoiler 0:07:27.480 --> 0:07:31.559 and be the one that eliminates them. It's an interesting point. 0:07:31.760 --> 0:07:35.480 One correction, the Broncos are already eliminated, Marco, they are 0:07:35.000 --> 0:07:40.360 they are done with it. Ye goodbye man Um. But 0:07:40.600 --> 0:07:43.040 it's an interesting point you make about Oakland Coliseum. I 0:07:43.040 --> 0:07:45.520 had an experience with this at RFK Stadium in Washington, 0:07:45.600 --> 0:07:49.080 d C. In nine seven. RFK Stadium, where the Redskins 0:07:49.080 --> 0:07:53.200 had won three Super Bowls as their home, uh stadium, 0:07:53.200 --> 0:07:55.360 and they were moving, but they were moving, you know, 0:07:55.520 --> 0:07:57.880 just outside of the city to FedEx Field where they 0:07:57.880 --> 0:08:00.160 play today, which is the worst state of experience it's 0:08:00.160 --> 0:08:04.320 in life. But it was a final game against the Cowboys. 0:08:04.360 --> 0:08:07.080 The Redskins destroyed the Cowboys that day. They weren't going 0:08:07.120 --> 0:08:09.520 to the playoffs, the Redskins weren't. It was just one 0:08:09.600 --> 0:08:11.760 of those days where you knew the Redskins were gonna win, 0:08:12.280 --> 0:08:15.040 but they were still beloved, right and people's people ripped 0:08:15.120 --> 0:08:17.440 chairs out of RFK. You know. The soccer team, the 0:08:17.480 --> 0:08:19.000 d C United, was still playing there. So it's not 0:08:19.080 --> 0:08:21.760 like the stadium was going away or the team really 0:08:21.800 --> 0:08:23.720 out of town. This is a little different, right, the 0:08:23.800 --> 0:08:27.240 Raiders are leaving again. Uh so it could be a 0:08:27.480 --> 0:08:30.440 very how can I put this interesting scene in the 0:08:30.520 --> 0:08:33.240 stands in this game? No telling what they're gonna do 0:08:33.280 --> 0:08:36.360 to that building in the black hole and otherwise, uh, 0:08:36.360 --> 0:08:38.640 the building is not going anywhere but final home game. 0:08:38.679 --> 0:08:40.480 You never know what kind of shenanigans are gonna be 0:08:40.480 --> 0:08:42.360 pulled out there. So it is a weird kind of game. 0:08:42.360 --> 0:08:44.480 And I'm kind of with you on that, Marco. I 0:08:44.520 --> 0:08:47.640 think there is a strange kind of emotional edge to 0:08:47.840 --> 0:08:50.719 the Raiders in this ballgame. Should point out, by the way, 0:08:50.720 --> 0:08:54.760 because Ed Brow Chris Harris that game against the Browns, 0:08:55.360 --> 0:09:00.920 the Broncos were down five cornerbacks, Like that's believable, Chris 0:09:00.920 --> 0:09:06.120 Harris Jr. Isaac Isaac Whiteham, Brendan Langley, Jamaar Taylor, even 0:09:06.160 --> 0:09:07.920 Bradley Roby was out for a bit. I mean, that 0:09:07.960 --> 0:09:11.720 was just ridiculous. Broncos, though, had a thirteen play drive 0:09:12.400 --> 0:09:16.120 eat up more than seven minutes, but after Philip Lindsay 0:09:16.160 --> 0:09:17.680 laid that game of stuff for a no game on 0:09:17.720 --> 0:09:19.640 third and one from the Cleveland six, that's when Vance 0:09:19.720 --> 0:09:22.080 Joseph sent in kicker Brandon McManus for a field goal 0:09:22.120 --> 0:09:24.920 instead of going forward on four down. Broncos did get 0:09:24.920 --> 0:09:26.920 the ball back at their thirteen with one forty nine 0:09:27.000 --> 0:09:29.559 remaining after Greg Williams decided to go for it on 0:09:29.600 --> 0:09:31.720 fourth down, which I think was the right call. Uh. 0:09:31.800 --> 0:09:34.320 They reached the fifty yard line with fifty two seconds left, 0:09:34.320 --> 0:09:36.520 but then a spike two in completions in a sack 0:09:37.000 --> 0:09:40.360 by Jabril Peppers of case Keenum there that all but 0:09:40.559 --> 0:09:44.080 ended Denver's playoff hopes and those playoff hopes are done 0:09:44.160 --> 0:09:47.319 zo now thirty two rushing yards for the Broncos in 0:09:47.360 --> 0:09:50.120 that game against the Browns. Any thoughts on this, Yeah, 0:09:50.120 --> 0:09:53.320 I wasn't really surprised that the total drop, just because 0:09:53.520 --> 0:09:56.840 historically this series has been an under series. Five of 0:09:56.840 --> 0:09:58.959 the last six have gone on there and they were 0:09:59.000 --> 0:10:03.040 some pretty low totals forty one, couple, forty four, forty three, 0:10:03.040 --> 0:10:06.239 and it still stayed under the total, So I understood 0:10:06.240 --> 0:10:08.560 why that moved. And then a couple that with the 0:10:08.600 --> 0:10:11.640 fact Denver hasn't gone over in the game since early, 0:10:11.920 --> 0:10:15.280 you know, mid October pretty much, so I you know, 0:10:15.280 --> 0:10:16.880 it's kind of the trend to the under, but I 0:10:16.880 --> 0:10:20.240 agree with that. I think this one sets up nicely 0:10:20.600 --> 0:10:23.440 for an over. I mean, we know when teams have 0:10:23.559 --> 0:10:26.360 nothing to play for, it tends to be more of 0:10:26.400 --> 0:10:30.000 a schoolyard type game. And more importantly, like we've touched 0:10:30.040 --> 0:10:32.360 on so many times with the podcast, it tends to 0:10:32.400 --> 0:10:35.240 take more effort to play defense than the play offense. 0:10:35.280 --> 0:10:38.040 I mean we see it with you know, all Star 0:10:38.200 --> 0:10:40.880 games and then Pro Bowls and stuff. When no one's 0:10:40.880 --> 0:10:44.040 playing defense, it's pretty easy to put up points. Uh, 0:10:44.080 --> 0:10:46.640 So I agree. I think the overall for some voundary, 0:10:46.720 --> 0:10:49.960 especially now they've dropped the forty three. As far as 0:10:50.000 --> 0:10:52.880 the sign, I simply tried to middle it. I thought 0:10:52.880 --> 0:10:54.559 the line would go up. I'd laid two and a 0:10:54.600 --> 0:10:57.280 half and I still have an outfit. Lets me buy 0:10:57.320 --> 0:10:59.640 a half a point on three for ten cents, So 0:10:59.720 --> 0:11:01.360 I knew I'd be able to take three and a 0:11:01.360 --> 0:11:03.960 half at ten for only ten cents, and I figured 0:11:03.960 --> 0:11:06.400 I'll have action that way by possibly setting up a 0:11:06.400 --> 0:11:09.440 middle um. But the only position I look to take 0:11:09.520 --> 0:11:11.920 is the under. I missed the forty five, so I 0:11:11.960 --> 0:11:14.440 may be forced to sit it out um if it 0:11:14.480 --> 0:11:16.600 doesn't go back up, but it's a prime time game, 0:11:16.600 --> 0:11:19.520 it may do so, especially as we approach game time. 0:11:19.800 --> 0:11:21.280 You have an outfit, lets you buy off the three 0:11:21.320 --> 0:11:25.520 for ten cents? Yea, yeah, three seven still ten cents, dude, 0:11:25.640 --> 0:11:28.640 And I just got to go really like, I can't 0:11:28.640 --> 0:11:31.560 do it a lot, you know. And I never bet 0:11:31.600 --> 0:11:34.000 limits with him, like if it's a nickel limit, I'll 0:11:34.000 --> 0:11:37.040 put like three on stuff because his lines are sometimes 0:11:37.080 --> 0:11:39.560 so far off, like he gives them to you and 0:11:39.640 --> 0:11:42.400 that's it, like barely ever even moves them. So it's 0:11:42.440 --> 0:11:44.920 one of those outs I just keep in that pocket man. Yeah, 0:11:44.960 --> 0:11:47.240 I don't want to abuse it either and anybody and 0:11:47.360 --> 0:11:50.000 not take advantage exactly for stuff like this is what 0:11:50.040 --> 0:11:51.720 I'll use them, by the way. That's a that's the 0:11:51.720 --> 0:11:53.880 point that we don't make enough. And that's like some 0:11:53.920 --> 0:11:57.000 of the complaints about like William Hill, people getting backed 0:11:57.040 --> 0:11:59.640 off at like William Hill. If you know a company 0:11:59.760 --> 0:12:02.280 or if you know an out is capable of that 0:12:02.360 --> 0:12:05.640 kind of behavior, maybe kind of realize that that's how 0:12:05.679 --> 0:12:08.320 they are and don't push that game. Gil. I don't 0:12:08.320 --> 0:12:12.000 even interrupt you. Honestly, I don't understand, and I you 0:12:12.000 --> 0:12:17.080 could delete this from the podcast of us talking. But 0:12:17.120 --> 0:12:19.960 all bullshit a sign. I get so sick of it 0:12:20.040 --> 0:12:23.600 seeing on Twitter. All right, it's it's bad enough the books, 0:12:23.640 --> 0:12:25.520 that's that that post. Oh, we took a half a 0:12:25.559 --> 0:12:27.959 million dollar money line bent, we took a three hundred 0:12:27.960 --> 0:12:29.800 money line bet and all this stuff, and yet they 0:12:29.800 --> 0:12:32.480 won't take a five thousand dollar bet from someone labeled 0:12:32.520 --> 0:12:35.720 a long term winner. I get it, Um, they shouldn't 0:12:35.720 --> 0:12:38.040 advertise the three thousand dollar bet if you're not willing 0:12:38.080 --> 0:12:40.760 to take it from everybody. So I understand that argument. 0:12:40.880 --> 0:12:42.839 But on the flip side of that same coin. I 0:12:43.080 --> 0:12:45.800 understand why all this bitching about they won't take a bet, 0:12:45.840 --> 0:12:47.360 they won't take a bet, they won't take a bet. 0:12:47.520 --> 0:12:50.880 Then open your own sports book and book all the sharps. 0:12:50.920 --> 0:12:52.880 If that's what you think the right moves to do. 0:12:53.160 --> 0:12:55.560 There are a company, their corporation. Their job is to 0:12:55.559 --> 0:12:59.360 turn a profit. That's it. Not if the market allows it, 0:13:00.000 --> 0:13:02.920 and that's what's gonna happen, we decide it. It's kind 0:13:02.920 --> 0:13:05.600 of like blackjack went the six to five Why because 0:13:05.640 --> 0:13:08.280 everyone kept playing it. So if you're gonna keep playing, 0:13:08.360 --> 0:13:11.440 stop bitching. And if you're you're gonna bitch about sports 0:13:11.440 --> 0:13:13.640 books not wanting to take your action because you win 0:13:13.720 --> 0:13:17.120 long term, then be fucking smart about it. Find more outs, 0:13:17.400 --> 0:13:20.280 don't bet the limits what everyone so you get dropped, 0:13:20.480 --> 0:13:23.320 Put in some middles, put in some scalps, give them 0:13:23.360 --> 0:13:26.760 some work. I mean, there's ways to keep accounts active. 0:13:27.840 --> 0:13:30.440 You're that sharp, and you're making that much money, and 0:13:30.480 --> 0:13:32.840 you're that great at this, that's the simple part. You 0:13:32.840 --> 0:13:34.920 should have learned, probably ten years ago, how to keep 0:13:34.960 --> 0:13:38.520 your ounce as long as possible. Getting in some cold stuff. 0:13:38.520 --> 0:13:40.960 You can't just fire hot shit in there. All day, 0:13:41.160 --> 0:13:43.240 every day and think the guy's gonna keep taking it. 0:13:43.320 --> 0:13:46.680 I wouldn't take its different different, it's a ray skill. 0:13:47.400 --> 0:13:48.760 You don't need a lot of them. If you have 0:13:48.880 --> 0:13:50.640 one guy that's going to give you all the moves, 0:13:50.800 --> 0:13:52.960 then why do you need the other fifteen guys piggyback 0:13:53.000 --> 0:13:55.280 in the sharp ship. Let him give you the stuff, 0:13:55.320 --> 0:13:58.200 adjust your lines, and then screw everybody else. I'd be 0:13:58.240 --> 0:14:00.400 doing the same thing, if you know what I mean. 0:14:00.440 --> 0:14:02.160 But I'm not going to take all the sharp action 0:14:02.280 --> 0:14:04.800 for what. Yeah, it's different from from you know, my 0:14:04.920 --> 0:14:06.880 William Hill thing where they don't pay you once the 0:14:06.920 --> 0:14:09.320 bets are made, they need to pay you. But but 0:14:09.400 --> 0:14:11.800 that's that's different. It's the business model of some of 0:14:11.800 --> 0:14:14.559 these companies. And it is always funny. After a while 0:14:14.600 --> 0:14:17.199 you're like, you know how they are, Uh play the game, 0:14:17.280 --> 0:14:19.640 because they're not gonna let you play it at all 0:14:19.680 --> 0:14:21.720 if you don't play the game, basically is what we're saying. 0:14:21.800 --> 0:14:25.000 And they shouldn't. They shouldn't. That's what they're there for 0:14:25.120 --> 0:14:27.840 to turn a profit. And if you're I know, because 0:14:27.840 --> 0:14:30.000 of card counting, that was the job. It was a 0:14:30.000 --> 0:14:32.120 cat and mouse game. Can we get in and how 0:14:32.120 --> 0:14:34.040 many hands can we play before they throw a sound? 0:14:34.200 --> 0:14:36.200 But they're gonna throw a sout because they're supposed to, 0:14:36.840 --> 0:14:39.800 because I would. That's again, why why the only sponsor 0:14:39.840 --> 0:14:42.440 I have here is Bookmaker? Because they're not like that? 0:14:42.520 --> 0:14:44.240 Right there, one of the few places on earth that's 0:14:44.240 --> 0:14:46.840 not like that. Uh, and those places are are rarer 0:14:46.840 --> 0:14:48.560 and rare. But anyway, we'll get to that later. Let's 0:14:48.600 --> 0:14:51.880 do Sunday Night k C at Seattle. Unlike the Monday 0:14:51.960 --> 0:14:55.280 night game, which has no implications whatsoever, this has implications 0:14:55.320 --> 0:14:58.480 everywhere for both teams. One of four games this weekend 0:14:58.480 --> 0:15:01.040 that has implications for both teams of Old k C 0:15:01.480 --> 0:15:05.680 loses to the Chargers last Thursday night in dramatic fashion. 0:15:06.200 --> 0:15:08.160 Philip Rivers. Don't get me started. We'll get to him 0:15:08.160 --> 0:15:09.920 in a minute when we talk about the Chargers. But 0:15:09.960 --> 0:15:11.920 the Chiefs are now eleven and three. They have the 0:15:11.920 --> 0:15:14.320 tiebreaker over the Chargers in the a f C West, 0:15:14.360 --> 0:15:16.400 So if the Chiefs went out, they'll get the number 0:15:16.440 --> 0:15:18.960 one seed in the a f C playoffs. But by 0:15:19.040 --> 0:15:22.000 this Sunday night game, twenty four hours before this, they 0:15:22.000 --> 0:15:24.440 will know if the Chargers have won their game against 0:15:24.440 --> 0:15:27.440 the Ravens if the Chargers have, that will continue to 0:15:27.480 --> 0:15:30.720 put the pressure on the Chiefs to keep pace in 0:15:30.800 --> 0:15:33.800 the a f C West. Otherwise, with a loss here, 0:15:33.800 --> 0:15:37.160 at a Chargers win, they will fall into wild card position. Obviously, 0:15:37.480 --> 0:15:39.600 after a long season of just all of us talking 0:15:39.600 --> 0:15:42.200 about the Chiefs NonStop, that will be a shock to 0:15:42.240 --> 0:15:45.480 the system. Chiefs are at Seattle. Chiefs right now, as 0:15:45.480 --> 0:15:48.360 we look across the board, can census in this ballgame 0:15:48.800 --> 0:15:51.200 are let's call it a two and a half extra 0:15:51.320 --> 0:15:53.600 juice two and a half point favorite with extra juice 0:15:53.640 --> 0:15:56.600 consensus at Seattle. The best thing that could have happened 0:15:56.640 --> 0:15:59.080 to the Chargers or people who are holding Chargers futures 0:15:59.080 --> 0:16:02.200 tickets like myself, was for Seattle to lose to San 0:16:02.240 --> 0:16:05.080 Francisco last week. That was a big deal because that 0:16:05.120 --> 0:16:08.680 puts Seattle at eight and six and really doesn't allow 0:16:08.800 --> 0:16:12.280 them to coast into the postseason. Otherwise this would have 0:16:12.360 --> 0:16:15.680 been a little bit different motivation wise for the Seahawks. Instead, 0:16:15.720 --> 0:16:18.200 they're eight and six, They're only a half game up 0:16:18.240 --> 0:16:21.080 on the Vikings in the wild card race. Seattle right 0:16:21.080 --> 0:16:23.960 now at number one, the Vikings at number two, and 0:16:24.160 --> 0:16:27.800 obviously the Eagles right behind them. So This is big. 0:16:27.800 --> 0:16:31.040 Seattle's gotta win this. They gotta ensure themselves a playoff position. 0:16:31.360 --> 0:16:34.080 Seattle plus two and a half at home, tough place 0:16:34.120 --> 0:16:36.800 to play. You always got to check the weather in Seattle, 0:16:36.840 --> 0:16:40.040 particularly this time of year. Marco, your thoughts here, Yeah, 0:16:40.120 --> 0:16:43.560 you talk about pressure guilt. Two weeks ago, Kansas City's 0:16:43.600 --> 0:16:48.400 the number one seed, rolling law and now they're there. 0:16:48.440 --> 0:16:50.600 They could be the five seed. They could go from 0:16:50.640 --> 0:16:53.520 one to five in one game. And as you said, 0:16:54.000 --> 0:16:56.280 this game's all They're gonna know what they need to do. 0:16:56.360 --> 0:17:00.200 And I think if the Chargers win, it's just put 0:17:00.320 --> 0:17:02.800 so much more pressure on Kansas City. And I'm looking 0:17:02.800 --> 0:17:05.800 at the Seattle side. And last week the lost, Yeah, 0:17:05.960 --> 0:17:07.679 just throw it out the window because it was a 0:17:07.680 --> 0:17:11.680 horrible spot for them. They beat Minnesota on Monday Night football, 0:17:11.760 --> 0:17:17.040 which virtually assured them as a playoff spot. You know, 0:17:17.080 --> 0:17:19.520 it was just as now if they're gonna be the 0:17:19.560 --> 0:17:23.600 top the wild card or the bottom wild card, they 0:17:23.720 --> 0:17:27.159 are so tough at home. We know how good Kansas 0:17:27.200 --> 0:17:29.000 City is at home and how loud it is the 0:17:29.119 --> 0:17:32.119 Kansas City. I still say k C has the loudest 0:17:32.440 --> 0:17:37.720 outdoor venue. Seattle is right there. Second, Uh, the twelfth man, 0:17:37.800 --> 0:17:39.760 and then you throw in the weather. You never know 0:17:39.800 --> 0:17:42.800 what the weather is gonna be in Seattle and let's 0:17:42.840 --> 0:17:46.240 face it, Kansas City. The last couple of weeks, offense 0:17:46.359 --> 0:17:51.040 scores twenty seven points against Baltimore against the Chargers. Granted 0:17:51.080 --> 0:17:55.560 they finally face some better defenses, but let's also point 0:17:55.560 --> 0:17:59.680 out the other common denominator. Uh, you've got cream hunt 0:18:00.200 --> 0:18:03.960 not there. There's no coincidence that the offensive production went 0:18:04.040 --> 0:18:07.560 down as good as Pat Mahomes has been this year. 0:18:08.200 --> 0:18:10.960 When you have a solid running game, it's gonna make 0:18:11.160 --> 0:18:13.480 you know, I've always said it, it it will make a 0:18:13.520 --> 0:18:17.800 good quarterback you know better, and it's gonna it's gonna 0:18:17.800 --> 0:18:21.359 make a great quarterback sensational. And that's what we've seen. 0:18:21.560 --> 0:18:24.080 Patrick Mahomes has played at a different level this year. 0:18:24.400 --> 0:18:27.159 But when that running games clicking, it's even tougher because 0:18:27.560 --> 0:18:31.919 it changes defensive schemes against them. I like Seattle in 0:18:31.960 --> 0:18:34.200 this game, but I'm gonna go the safe route, Gil. 0:18:34.840 --> 0:18:39.520 This is teaser city all over, sir. This is to 0:18:39.880 --> 0:18:43.000 take it. This is the traditional grab that two to 0:18:43.280 --> 0:18:46.600 two and a half point dog. Take him through the three, four, six, 0:18:46.640 --> 0:18:49.160 and seven and sit back and relax because I don't 0:18:49.160 --> 0:18:52.640 see Kansas City getting separations. That's where I'm at. Kick 0:18:52.640 --> 0:18:54.840 your legs up. Watch everybody else do get out a 0:18:54.920 --> 0:18:57.199 t s on a plink, oh finish while you can 0:18:57.240 --> 0:18:59.879 kick your legs up. I'm all about that. Seattle for 0:19:00.119 --> 0:19:03.520 game winning streaks snapped at San Francisco last week. It's 0:19:03.520 --> 0:19:06.080 so true. Do you ever remember a season like this 0:19:06.680 --> 0:19:09.480 where there were three teams the Chiefs, the Rams and 0:19:09.480 --> 0:19:11.240 the Saints. And the Saints are gonna be okay because 0:19:11.240 --> 0:19:14.880 despite five out of six bad halves, their last six 0:19:14.920 --> 0:19:16.639 halves of football, five out of the the last six have 0:19:16.680 --> 0:19:19.960 been dreadful offensively, despite that, they're in position to have 0:19:20.040 --> 0:19:22.600 home field throughout the NFC playoffs. They're gonna be okay. 0:19:22.720 --> 0:19:24.760 But you ever remember season where you had three teams 0:19:24.800 --> 0:19:27.560 like the Saints, Rams and Chiefs that were heading shoulders 0:19:27.600 --> 0:19:32.080 above everybody else, and within a span of two weeks 0:19:32.640 --> 0:19:36.360 where like, um, everything we thought we knew we kind 0:19:36.359 --> 0:19:39.119 of don't know anything anymore. Um So this will be 0:19:39.200 --> 0:19:41.919 very interesting and as Marco points out, feast or famine 0:19:41.920 --> 0:19:43.520 in many ways for the Chiefs. Here there's a lot 0:19:43.560 --> 0:19:45.879 of teams like that. The Steelers who we might get to. 0:19:46.160 --> 0:19:48.080 They're also in one of those positions where it's like 0:19:48.119 --> 0:19:51.600 division win or out completely for the Chiefs, it's number 0:19:51.600 --> 0:19:54.959 one seed or a wild card team that's gonna fight uphill. 0:19:55.119 --> 0:19:56.880 By the way, the other common thread between these two 0:19:56.920 --> 0:19:59.920 teams from last week Chiefs against the Chargers ten penalties 0:20:00.400 --> 0:20:04.119 sixty six yards. Seahawks and Pete Carroll doesn't get enough 0:20:04.160 --> 0:20:08.119 criticism for this because they're always being penalized. Fourteen penalties 0:20:08.320 --> 0:20:12.080 for the Seahawks against the Niners hundred forty eight yards 0:20:12.119 --> 0:20:14.560 in those penalties. ASA didn't mean to get you riled 0:20:14.640 --> 0:20:16.639 up earlier before, but I think that's a point that 0:20:16.760 --> 0:20:18.640 just came up that I think needs to be made 0:20:18.640 --> 0:20:21.520