Speaker 1: Check it on Man No Down Man Thursday Morning, decept
Speaker 1: the Beating the Book podcast, Megapod Week sixteen in the
Speaker 1: National Football League. Remember there's no guessing lines or megapod
Speaker 1: next week in between Christmas and New Year's week seventeen,
Speaker 1: we never do either. Don't get mad at us, get
Speaker 1: mad at Marco. You know you did. That was the
Speaker 1: tradition every single year. And then the one year you
Speaker 1: had this right idea, I just do a podcast and
Speaker 1: none of the games meant anything. And the couple that
Speaker 1: did the line was so high and you didn't know
Speaker 1: who was playing, and it was, you know, no other
Speaker 1: way to say it. It It was a clusterfuck of the show.
Speaker 1: It really, It really was how quickly did I throw
Speaker 1: you under the bus? There by the way. I was like, oh, yeah,
Speaker 1: I know, you know I could come you know, I
Speaker 1: could come back and throw you under the bus and
Speaker 1: tell people how close we were to ending this thing,
Speaker 1: uh two years ago that but yeah, we talked about
Speaker 1: that on the show, didn't we. Like The joke was
Speaker 1: I took you guys to quick Yeah, we we glossed
Speaker 1: it over. But you know, people don't realize how close
Speaker 1: that was. But the best part was You know, when
Speaker 1: you like almost break up with a girl and then
Speaker 1: you decide, oh, man, she is you know, she really
Speaker 1: is hot. And then you you know, you take the
Speaker 1: two of us to dinner, and you know, he pulled
Speaker 1: out all the stops we went to. Uh it was
Speaker 1: at the Aria, the all the name of the what
Speaker 1: was it? Carbone? Yes, yes, and I got the bone
Speaker 1: in Bill Parmesan and uh, yeah, we made you pay
Speaker 1: for We made you pay for that one. What do
Speaker 1: you mean you made me pay It was my my breakup, Like,
Speaker 1: it's not you guys, it's me. Well I know, but
Speaker 1: I I said, we we we didn't. We didn't go
Speaker 1: soft on you do you were paying no question about that, dude.
Speaker 1: And then then and then the next morning, I'm like, yeah,
Speaker 1: let's keep doing it. That's how it tear it out. Yeah,
Speaker 1: well that's a that's a great story, Marco. Probably a
Speaker 1: little too in depth, but I appreciate it. So probably
Speaker 1: you know what, some of these games this week, don't,
Speaker 1: you know, don't deserve the time. So that pent right.
Speaker 1: As always, the show I should point out, brought you
Speaker 1: by the score x dot com th h E S
Speaker 1: c O r e X. It's that secret stock market thing.
Speaker 1: We have the winner of the year long event coming
Speaker 1: on our show for wild Card weekend. Two weeks left
Speaker 1: in that contest, the year long beating the Book Megapod
Speaker 1: score X contest, who's got the biggest return on their portfolio?
Speaker 1: Right now, the leader remains profitable thirty four point eight percent,
Speaker 1: but the lead is narrowing just a little bit. Snap
Speaker 1: fade second place twenty nine and the week twenty eight
Speaker 1: point eight percent in third place, So we'll see if
Speaker 1: profitable can hang on and enjoined us the Megapod wild
Speaker 1: Card weekend. We look forward to that as always. That's
Speaker 1: the voice of Marco to Angela from Wage to Talk.
Speaker 1: I don't need to introduce him anymore. Aces here as
Speaker 1: well on the left from out of the sports betting diaspora. Hello,
Speaker 1: as here he is and joining us once again, kind
Speaker 1: enough to join us from the power Rank dot com
Speaker 1: Ed Fang, Good morning, Ed, Good morning guys. Thanks so
Speaker 1: much for having me on talks on the games. We
Speaker 1: appreciate it. Let's start. We always here's the thing we
Speaker 1: always start in the format where we start with the
Speaker 1: Monday night game. This Monday night game sucks if you
Speaker 1: have a betting angle on it, though by all means,
Speaker 1: feel free to extrapolate. If you don't, let's just move on.
Speaker 1: Denver three point favorites at Oakland Monday night. The game
Speaker 1: means NATA except for perhaps draft position. Denver coming off
Speaker 1: a horrific loss to the Browns on Saturday, in which
Speaker 1: fans Joseph decided to kick a field goal to make
Speaker 1: it seventeen to sixteen as opposed to going forward on
Speaker 1: fourth and one late. Oak Land. Well, they're just not
Speaker 1: that good at football. They're coming off You had another loss,
Speaker 1: Denver minus three at Oakland. Any thoughts on this one? Ed? Yeah,
Speaker 1: you know I'm gonna jump in here a little bit. Um.
Speaker 1: I don't like to side on this game, just because
Speaker 1: it's hard to figure out where Oakland's mind is, whether
Speaker 1: they're gonna play. You kind of gotta think that you're
Speaker 1: gonna be pumped up at home against the division rival. Um,
Speaker 1: but I'm not. I can't put numbers to motivation, so
Speaker 1: I'm not going to do that. But but one thing
Speaker 1: I do want to point out out about this game
Speaker 1: is that Oakland's fundamentals on offense have been pretty good.
Speaker 1: On my side, I look at pass offense in terms
Speaker 1: of adjusted yards for play, Oakland ranks and ninth. And
Speaker 1: remember they haven't had a Mark Cooper for the last
Speaker 1: however many weeks. And I've also started looking at success
Speaker 1: rate adjusted for strength of schedule this year. So success
Speaker 1: is simply if you get fifty yards on first down,
Speaker 1: on second down, and all the necessary yards on third
Speaker 1: and fourth down. Oakland's offense ranks tenth and uh so,
Speaker 1: so they're doing interesting things on that side of the ball.
Speaker 1: There awful on the other side of the ball. But
Speaker 1: but does this does kind of point to the over
Speaker 1: on this one? Um? I think it looked like it
Speaker 1: opened at forty five. Um, it's down to forty three.
Speaker 1: I really can't understand that, especially since Chris Harris Jr.
Speaker 1: Who's not playing for Denver Garyanne Connolly for Oakland cornerback
Speaker 1: is a little dinged up. So yeah, that's one thing
Speaker 1: I mean, I think I think Oakland's offense is possibly
Speaker 1: is decent, and uh the over is something that you
Speaker 1: should consider in this game. Yet three and a half
Speaker 1: somewhere in that pocket that's where the total is right now.
Speaker 1: Broncos and the Raiders on Monday Night, Marco, anything here Yeah,
Speaker 1: I like the Oakland side, Gil and this is what
Speaker 1: I'm gonna do the angle. By the time this game
Speaker 1: is played on Sunday, UM, Denver could possibly be officially eliminated.
Speaker 1: They're still mathematically alive. But I'll tell you who also
Speaker 1: is just mathematically alive is Fance Joseph Because the minute
Speaker 1: this team is officially out of the playoffs, he is
Speaker 1: also gonna be officially eliminated as coach of the Denver Broncos.
Speaker 1: And for the Oakland Raiders side, yes, what Ed said
Speaker 1: about the offense, Derek carrs looked good in the last
Speaker 1: three games UM Kansas City and Pittsburgh. They took both
Speaker 1: of those teams to the limit and got the win
Speaker 1: against Pittsburgh. Yeah, where those teams looking past them? Probably?
Speaker 1: But last week they did losing Cincinnati committed a few
Speaker 1: turnovers and it was a dead spot for them. Off
Speaker 1: of the Pittsburgh win and with this Monday night game
Speaker 1: on deck, traveling to the East Coast was a bad
Speaker 1: spot for them. But let's throw in the intangible. This
Speaker 1: for all intents and purposes, is probably going to be
Speaker 1: the final game in the Oakland Coliseum, and the Raiders
Speaker 1: they're gonna play somewhere next year, but it's not gonna
Speaker 1: be here. And as much as you know all of
Speaker 1: this stuff in Gil, you you're more uh in depth
Speaker 1: with in touch with the Bay Area. You know, the
Speaker 1: players had nothing to do with this. This is situation
Speaker 1: with ownership and city officials couldn't get a stadium done
Speaker 1: and all that, and that's why they're leaving. They want
Speaker 1: to give their fans, I think will win sending it out.
Speaker 1: And there's no coincidence that this was on Monday night,
Speaker 1: their last home game, the black Hole, Monday night, drinking
Speaker 1: all day, them going out on a high note. I
Speaker 1: think it's a great situational spot, especially if Denver's eliminated,
Speaker 1: and even if Denver's not, they get to play spoiler
Speaker 1: and be the one that eliminates them. It's an interesting point.
Speaker 1: One correction, the Broncos are already eliminated, Marco, they are
Speaker 1: they are done with it. Ye goodbye man Um. But
Speaker 1: it's an interesting point you make about Oakland Coliseum. I
Speaker 1: had an experience with this at RFK Stadium in Washington,
Speaker 1: d C. In nine seven. RFK Stadium, where the Redskins
Speaker 1: had won three Super Bowls as their home, uh stadium,
Speaker 1: and they were moving, but they were moving, you know,
Speaker 1: just outside of the city to FedEx Field where they
Speaker 1: play today, which is the worst state of experience it's
Speaker 1: in life. But it was a final game against the Cowboys.
Speaker 1: The Redskins destroyed the Cowboys that day. They weren't going
Speaker 1: to the playoffs, the Redskins weren't. It was just one
Speaker 1: of those days where you knew the Redskins were gonna win,
Speaker 1: but they were still beloved, right and people's people ripped
Speaker 1: chairs out of RFK. You know. The soccer team, the
Speaker 1: d C United, was still playing there. So it's not
Speaker 1: like the stadium was going away or the team really
Speaker 1: out of town. This is a little different, right, the
Speaker 1: Raiders are leaving again. Uh so it could be a
Speaker 1: very how can I put this interesting scene in the
Speaker 1: stands in this game? No telling what they're gonna do
Speaker 1: to that building in the black hole and otherwise, uh,
Speaker 1: the building is not going anywhere but final home game.
Speaker 1: You never know what kind of shenanigans are gonna be
Speaker 1: pulled out there. So it is a weird kind of game.
Speaker 1: And I'm kind of with you on that, Marco. I
Speaker 1: think there is a strange kind of emotional edge to
Speaker 1: the Raiders in this ballgame. Should point out, by the way,
Speaker 1: because Ed Brow Chris Harris that game against the Browns,
Speaker 1: the Broncos were down five cornerbacks, Like that's believable, Chris
Speaker 1: Harris Jr. Isaac Isaac Whiteham, Brendan Langley, Jamaar Taylor, even
Speaker 1: Bradley Roby was out for a bit. I mean, that
Speaker 1: was just ridiculous. Broncos, though, had a thirteen play drive
Speaker 1: eat up more than seven minutes, but after Philip Lindsay
Speaker 1: laid that game of stuff for a no game on
Speaker 1: third and one from the Cleveland six, that's when Vance
Speaker 1: Joseph sent in kicker Brandon McManus for a field goal
Speaker 1: instead of going forward on four down. Broncos did get
Speaker 1: the ball back at their thirteen with one forty nine
Speaker 1: remaining after Greg Williams decided to go for it on
Speaker 1: fourth down, which I think was the right call. Uh.
Speaker 1: They reached the fifty yard line with fifty two seconds left,
Speaker 1: but then a spike two in completions in a sack
Speaker 1: by Jabril Peppers of case Keenum there that all but
Speaker 1: ended Denver's playoff hopes and those playoff hopes are done
Speaker 1: zo now thirty two rushing yards for the Broncos in
Speaker 1: that game against the Browns. Any thoughts on this, Yeah,
Speaker 1: I wasn't really surprised that the total drop, just because
Speaker 1: historically this series has been an under series. Five of
Speaker 1: the last six have gone on there and they were
Speaker 1: some pretty low totals forty one, couple, forty four, forty three,
Speaker 1: and it still stayed under the total, So I understood
Speaker 1: why that moved. And then a couple that with the
Speaker 1: fact Denver hasn't gone over in the game since early,
Speaker 1: you know, mid October pretty much, so I you know,
Speaker 1: it's kind of the trend to the under, but I
Speaker 1: agree with that. I think this one sets up nicely
Speaker 1: for an over. I mean, we know when teams have
Speaker 1: nothing to play for, it tends to be more of
Speaker 1: a schoolyard type game. And more importantly, like we've touched
Speaker 1: on so many times with the podcast, it tends to
Speaker 1: take more effort to play defense than the play offense.
Speaker 1: I mean we see it with you know, all Star
Speaker 1: games and then Pro Bowls and stuff. When no one's
Speaker 1: playing defense, it's pretty easy to put up points. Uh,
Speaker 1: So I agree. I think the overall for some voundary,
Speaker 1: especially now they've dropped the forty three. As far as
Speaker 1: the sign, I simply tried to middle it. I thought
Speaker 1: the line would go up. I'd laid two and a
Speaker 1: half and I still have an outfit. Lets me buy
Speaker 1: a half a point on three for ten cents, So
Speaker 1: I knew I'd be able to take three and a
Speaker 1: half at ten for only ten cents, and I figured
Speaker 1: I'll have action that way by possibly setting up a
Speaker 1: middle um. But the only position I look to take
Speaker 1: is the under. I missed the forty five, so I
Speaker 1: may be forced to sit it out um if it
Speaker 1: doesn't go back up, but it's a prime time game,
Speaker 1: it may do so, especially as we approach game time.
Speaker 1: You have an outfit, lets you buy off the three
Speaker 1: for ten cents? Yea, yeah, three seven still ten cents, dude,
Speaker 1: And I just got to go really like, I can't
Speaker 1: do it a lot, you know. And I never bet
Speaker 1: limits with him, like if it's a nickel limit, I'll
Speaker 1: put like three on stuff because his lines are sometimes
Speaker 1: so far off, like he gives them to you and
Speaker 1: that's it, like barely ever even moves them. So it's
Speaker 1: one of those outs I just keep in that pocket man. Yeah,
Speaker 1: I don't want to abuse it either and anybody and
Speaker 1: not take advantage exactly for stuff like this is what
Speaker 1: I'll use them, by the way. That's a that's the
Speaker 1: point that we don't make enough. And that's like some
Speaker 1: of the complaints about like William Hill, people getting backed
Speaker 1: off at like William Hill. If you know a company
Speaker 1: or if you know an out is capable of that
Speaker 1: kind of behavior, maybe kind of realize that that's how
Speaker 1: they are and don't push that game. Gil. I don't
Speaker 1: even interrupt you. Honestly, I don't understand, and I you
Speaker 1: could delete this from the podcast of us talking. But
Speaker 1: all bullshit a sign. I get so sick of it
Speaker 1: seeing on Twitter. All right, it's it's bad enough the books,
Speaker 1: that's that that post. Oh, we took a half a
Speaker 1: million dollar money line bent, we took a three hundred
Speaker 1: money line bet and all this stuff, and yet they
Speaker 1: won't take a five thousand dollar bet from someone labeled
Speaker 1: a long term winner. I get it, Um, they shouldn't
Speaker 1: advertise the three thousand dollar bet if you're not willing
Speaker 1: to take it from everybody. So I understand that argument.
Speaker 1: But on the flip side of that same coin. I
Speaker 1: understand why all this bitching about they won't take a bet,
Speaker 1: they won't take a bet, they won't take a bet.
Speaker 1: Then open your own sports book and book all the sharps.
Speaker 1: If that's what you think the right moves to do.
Speaker 1: There are a company, their corporation. Their job is to
Speaker 1: turn a profit. That's it. Not if the market allows it,
Speaker 1: and that's what's gonna happen, we decide it. It's kind
Speaker 1: of like blackjack went the six to five Why because
Speaker 1: everyone kept playing it. So if you're gonna keep playing,
Speaker 1: stop bitching. And if you're you're gonna bitch about sports
Speaker 1: books not wanting to take your action because you win
Speaker 1: long term, then be fucking smart about it. Find more outs,
Speaker 1: don't bet the limits what everyone so you get dropped,
Speaker 1: Put in some middles, put in some scalps, give them
Speaker 1: some work. I mean, there's ways to keep accounts active.
Speaker 1: You're that sharp, and you're making that much money, and
Speaker 1: you're that great at this, that's the simple part. You
Speaker 1: should have learned, probably ten years ago, how to keep
Speaker 1: your ounce as long as possible. Getting in some cold stuff.
Speaker 1: You can't just fire hot shit in there. All day,
Speaker 1: every day and think the guy's gonna keep taking it.
Speaker 1: I wouldn't take its different different, it's a ray skill.
Speaker 1: You don't need a lot of them. If you have
Speaker 1: one guy that's going to give you all the moves,
Speaker 1: then why do you need the other fifteen guys piggyback
Speaker 1: in the sharp ship. Let him give you the stuff,
Speaker 1: adjust your lines, and then screw everybody else. I'd be
Speaker 1: doing the same thing, if you know what I mean.
Speaker 1: But I'm not going to take all the sharp action
Speaker 1: for what. Yeah, it's different from from you know, my
Speaker 1: William Hill thing where they don't pay you once the
Speaker 1: bets are made, they need to pay you. But but
Speaker 1: that's that's different. It's the business model of some of
Speaker 1: these companies. And it is always funny. After a while
Speaker 1: you're like, you know how they are, Uh play the game,
Speaker 1: because they're not gonna let you play it at all
Speaker 1: if you don't play the game, basically is what we're saying.
Speaker 1: And they shouldn't. They shouldn't. That's what they're there for
Speaker 1: to turn a profit. And if you're I know, because
Speaker 1: of card counting, that was the job. It was a
Speaker 1: cat and mouse game. Can we get in and how
Speaker 1: many hands can we play before they throw a sound?
Speaker 1: But they're gonna throw a sout because they're supposed to,
Speaker 1: because I would. That's again, why why the only sponsor
Speaker 1: I have here is Bookmaker? Because they're not like that?
Speaker 1: Right there, one of the few places on earth that's
Speaker 1: not like that. Uh, and those places are are rarer
Speaker 1: and rare. But anyway, we'll get to that later. Let's
Speaker 1: do Sunday Night k C at Seattle. Unlike the Monday
Speaker 1: night game, which has no implications whatsoever, this has implications
Speaker 1: everywhere for both teams. One of four games this weekend
Speaker 1: that has implications for both teams of Old k C
Speaker 1: loses to the Chargers last Thursday night in dramatic fashion.
Speaker 1: Philip Rivers. Don't get me started. We'll get to him
Speaker 1: in a minute when we talk about the Chargers. But
Speaker 1: the Chiefs are now eleven and three. They have the
Speaker 1: tiebreaker over the Chargers in the a f C West,
Speaker 1: So if the Chiefs went out, they'll get the number
Speaker 1: one seed in the a f C playoffs. But by
Speaker 1: this Sunday night game, twenty four hours before this, they
Speaker 1: will know if the Chargers have won their game against
Speaker 1: the Ravens if the Chargers have, that will continue to
Speaker 1: put the pressure on the Chiefs to keep pace in
Speaker 1: the a f C West. Otherwise, with a loss here,
Speaker 1: at a Chargers win, they will fall into wild card position. Obviously,
Speaker 1: after a long season of just all of us talking
Speaker 1: about the Chiefs NonStop, that will be a shock to
Speaker 1: the system. Chiefs are at Seattle. Chiefs right now, as
Speaker 1: we look across the board, can census in this ballgame
Speaker 1: are let's call it a two and a half extra
Speaker 1: juice two and a half point favorite with extra juice
Speaker 1: consensus at Seattle. The best thing that could have happened
Speaker 1: to the Chargers or people who are holding Chargers futures
Speaker 1: tickets like myself, was for Seattle to lose to San
Speaker 1: Francisco last week. That was a big deal because that
Speaker 1: puts Seattle at eight and six and really doesn't allow
Speaker 1: them to coast into the postseason. Otherwise this would have
Speaker 1: been a little bit different motivation wise for the Seahawks. Instead,
Speaker 1: they're eight and six, They're only a half game up
Speaker 1: on the Vikings in the wild card race. Seattle right
Speaker 1: now at number one, the Vikings at number two, and
Speaker 1: obviously the Eagles right behind them. So This is big.
Speaker 1: Seattle's gotta win this. They gotta ensure themselves a playoff position.
Speaker 1: Seattle plus two and a half at home, tough place
Speaker 1: to play. You always got to check the weather in Seattle,
Speaker 1: particularly this time of year. Marco, your thoughts here, Yeah,
Speaker 1: you talk about pressure guilt. Two weeks ago, Kansas City's
Speaker 1: the number one seed, rolling law and now they're there.
Speaker 1: They could be the five seed. They could go from
Speaker 1: one to five in one game. And as you said,
Speaker 1: this game's all They're gonna know what they need to do.
Speaker 1: And I think if the Chargers win, it's just put
Speaker 1: so much more pressure on Kansas City. And I'm looking
Speaker 1: at the Seattle side. And last week the lost, Yeah,
Speaker 1: just throw it out the window because it was a
Speaker 1: horrible spot for them. They beat Minnesota on Monday Night football,
Speaker 1: which virtually assured them as a playoff spot. You know,
Speaker 1: it was just as now if they're gonna be the
Speaker 1: top the wild card or the bottom wild card, they
Speaker 1: are so tough at home. We know how good Kansas
Speaker 1: City is at home and how loud it is the
Speaker 1: Kansas City. I still say k C has the loudest
Speaker 1: outdoor venue. Seattle is right there. Second, Uh, the twelfth man,
Speaker 1: and then you throw in the weather. You never know
Speaker 1: what the weather is gonna be in Seattle and let's
Speaker 1: face it, Kansas City. The last couple of weeks, offense
Speaker 1: scores twenty seven points against Baltimore against the Chargers. Granted
Speaker 1: they finally face some better defenses, but let's also point
Speaker 1: out the other common denominator. Uh, you've got cream hunt
Speaker 1: not there. There's no coincidence that the offensive production went
Speaker 1: down as good as Pat Mahomes has been this year.
Speaker 1: When you have a solid running game, it's gonna make
Speaker 1: you know, I've always said it, it it will make a
Speaker 1: good quarterback you know better, and it's gonna it's gonna
Speaker 1: make a great quarterback sensational. And that's what we've seen.
Speaker 1: Patrick Mahomes has played at a different level this year.
Speaker 1: But when that running games clicking, it's even tougher because
Speaker 1: it changes defensive schemes against them. I like Seattle in
Speaker 1: this game, but I'm gonna go the safe route, Gil.
Speaker 1: This is teaser city all over, sir. This is to
Speaker 1: take it. This is the traditional grab that two to
Speaker 1: two and a half point dog. Take him through the three, four, six,
Speaker 1: and seven and sit back and relax because I don't
Speaker 1: see Kansas City getting separations. That's where I'm at. Kick
Speaker 1: your legs up. Watch everybody else do get out a
Speaker 1: t s on a plink, oh finish while you can
Speaker 1: kick your legs up. I'm all about that. Seattle for
Speaker 1: game winning streaks snapped at San Francisco last week. It's
Speaker 1: so true. Do you ever remember a season like this
Speaker 1: where there were three teams the Chiefs, the Rams and
Speaker 1: the Saints. And the Saints are gonna be okay because
Speaker 1: despite five out of six bad halves, their last six
Speaker 1: halves of football, five out of the the last six have
Speaker 1: been dreadful offensively, despite that, they're in position to have
Speaker 1: home field throughout the NFC playoffs. They're gonna be okay.
Speaker 1: But you ever remember season where you had three teams
Speaker 1: like the Saints, Rams and Chiefs that were heading shoulders
Speaker 1: above everybody else, and within a span of two weeks
Speaker 1: where like, um, everything we thought we knew we kind
Speaker 1: of don't know anything anymore. Um So this will be
Speaker 1: very interesting and as Marco points out, feast or famine
Speaker 1: in many ways for the Chiefs. Here there's a lot
Speaker 1: of teams like that. The Steelers who we might get to.
Speaker 1: They're also in one of those positions where it's like
Speaker 1: division win or out completely for the Chiefs, it's number
Speaker 1: one seed or a wild card team that's gonna fight uphill.
Speaker 1: By the way, the other common thread between these two
Speaker 1: teams from last week Chiefs against the Chargers ten penalties
Speaker 1: sixty six yards. Seahawks and Pete Carroll doesn't get enough
Speaker 1: criticism for this because they're always being penalized. Fourteen penalties
Speaker 1: for the Seahawks against the Niners hundred forty eight yards
Speaker 1: in those penalties. ASA didn't mean to get you riled
Speaker 1: up earlier before, but I think that's a point that
Speaker 1: just came up that I think needs to be made
Speaker 1: more often. So I'm glad you took the mantel there. Yes, sir,
Speaker 1: I was gonna say, speak for yourself, because I saw
Speaker 1: this coming somewhere around week five or six, if I
Speaker 1: remember correctly. I'm not sure where the confusion comes in.
Speaker 1: I gotta I got a briefcase full of three dollar
Speaker 1: bills with a plane ticket to Missouri. That's the only
Speaker 1: state I'll be cashing those. That team's as tony as
Speaker 1: a three dollar bill. Brother, I've said it before, I'll
Speaker 1: say it again. They're they're that one possession team that
Speaker 1: don't know how to win when they have the win
Speaker 1: in their grass. That's well, I'm not even I told
Speaker 1: you if I could write a team, make money with them,
Speaker 1: and trust them, I'm all good. I don't I don't
Speaker 1: have any bias. I could care less. I'll bet you today,
Speaker 1: fade you tomorrow. My. You know, my only uh loyalty
Speaker 1: is to my pocket when it comes to betting. Um.
Speaker 1: But but at the end of the day, I just
Speaker 1: felt this team was way way over valued. We were
Speaker 1: getting way ahead of ourselves based on the fact the
Speaker 1: history of this team, the history of this head coach.
Speaker 1: That when it matters, when it really matters, when you're
Speaker 1: a foot away from grabbing that trophy of this that
Speaker 1: Super Bowl trophy, that conference championship, that division, you're gonna choke.
Speaker 1: I mean, you just look at past history. You know,
Speaker 1: they always say tell me what someone did, I'll tell
Speaker 1: you what they're gonna do. You know, it's pretty much
Speaker 1: one of those human things that it's not even a
Speaker 1: sport thing. I mean, at the end of the day,
Speaker 1: I just didn't understand what all this hype was for
Speaker 1: Kansas City. If they were getting it done on the
Speaker 1: defensive side of the ball as well, I'd say you
Speaker 1: might be right. But the fact they had to put
Speaker 1: up forty points a game to win, to me, tells
Speaker 1: me this is a you're not gonna be able to
Speaker 1: sustain that throughout the entire season. I don't care how
Speaker 1: much the NFL has changed and has become an offensive
Speaker 1: type league. If you do not have a defense, you're
Speaker 1: not bringing home that Super Bowl trophy. Find me a
Speaker 1: team that's done it. I can't remember in the recent
Speaker 1: you know, UH history that that's done it. But as
Speaker 1: far as this matchup goes, I'm going to tell you
Speaker 1: the truth. That has nothing to do with the bias
Speaker 1: at Kansas City. UM. I had San Francisco last week
Speaker 1: first half end game against UH Seattle. I hope the
Speaker 1: listeners got down on that. But I think the wrong
Speaker 1: team is favored. I really do. I think on a
Speaker 1: neutral field, if they were playing in your backyard, Kansas
Speaker 1: City would not be more than a one one and
Speaker 1: a half point favorite over Seattle. The way they both
Speaker 1: teams have been playing right now, and the fact they're
Speaker 1: going into Seattle with with a game that's so meaningful,
Speaker 1: and that they're a favorite, to me, makes absolutely no
Speaker 1: sense at all. That's nothing more than perception. That's nothing
Speaker 1: more than than the betting market and overreaction. Um. And
Speaker 1: to me, I think you got to take advantage of it.
Speaker 1: There's just so much value on the Seattle Seahawks. If
Speaker 1: you look at Kansas City real quickly, match up wise,
Speaker 1: look over the last three weeks what they've done. They've
Speaker 1: won two out of three, but they having covered why
Speaker 1: they've averaged allowed about five yards per carry over there
Speaker 1: um and three straight games. And now you're going up
Speaker 1: against the Seattle team that has been running the football
Speaker 1: lights out in six of the last seven games. UM.
Speaker 1: To me, that's the perfect recipe for for Kansas City.
Speaker 1: You're gonna be seeing old Patrick Johnny Holmes on the
Speaker 1: sideline waiting to get in because they're gonna be grinding
Speaker 1: that clock in Seattle. Baby, that much I can promise
Speaker 1: you they're gonna run, run, run that football and get
Speaker 1: the win. Give me Seattle all day. Like I said,
Speaker 1: wrong team's favored win or lose. I have no doubt,
Speaker 1: zero none that this is as much lyne value as
Speaker 1: you could possibly get on a primetime game. So I'm
Speaker 1: all over the Seattle Seahawks. Just push that line up
Speaker 1: the three for me, not like I'm gonna need it
Speaker 1: because this has money line written all over it. Don't
Speaker 1: even waste your teaser on the Seattle side. Just the
Speaker 1: two and a half some more than enough, probably got
Speaker 1: a touchdown more than you need. We'll still tease it
Speaker 1: just for the hell of it. How about that more
Speaker 1: down just to get more action. Yeah? Uh so you
Speaker 1: are we sprinkling there, we're sprinkling in spring. That's the
Speaker 1: reverse that's the pleaser whatever that Yeah, sprick sprickle s Yeah,
Speaker 1: the reverse teaser, which, by the way, reverse teaser and
Speaker 1: the term pleaser all invented by the great Christie Andrews.
Speaker 1: People don't know that, but that's the case. By the way,
Speaker 1: you can do those at the South Point. You know what,
Speaker 1: you get twenty five to one on three team reverse
Speaker 1: teasers and seventy five to one on four teamers. That's
Speaker 1: some good ship right there. Now they limit you don't
Speaker 1: get me wrong. Then they're not gonna let you do
Speaker 1: more than like fifty bucks. But still, you know, um,
Speaker 1: Chris Felika hit a four team or the other day
Speaker 1: last week for thirty seven hundreds. So it was a
Speaker 1: nice little job right there. So you know, if you're
Speaker 1: in town, that's the place to go for those. So
Speaker 1: remember the look the head on this game was Seattle
Speaker 1: minus one, so that that kind of going towards what
Speaker 1: I was saying as far as the long team being
Speaker 1: favored Seattle all day every day, we're unanimous. So far,
Speaker 1: let's see what Ed has to say. Ed, what you got? Yeah,
Speaker 1: a lot of thoughts. I mean I agree with a
Speaker 1: so much about these three teams and and and seeing regression.
Speaker 1: You know, we talked about the Rams, talked about the Chiefs,
Speaker 1: and we talked about the Saints, and two of those
Speaker 1: three teams of terrible defenses, mainly the Chiefs, uh and
Speaker 1: the Saints. So not not surprisitive to come back to
Speaker 1: earth and um, but I'm going to disagree with this
Speaker 1: on this. I've not been excited about Seattle. I know
Speaker 1: they've had won eight games, but my numbers have them
Speaker 1: as a blow average NFL team. I thought they were
Speaker 1: a blow average NFL team coming into this year. Uh,
Speaker 1: nothing except for maybe Russell Wilson once in a while. Uh.
Speaker 1: To just that this is is a good team to me, UM,
Speaker 1: I think Kansas City by about two and a half
Speaker 1: is is right. I think the total of fifty three
Speaker 1: is about right. But what really fascinates me about this
Speaker 1: Kansas City team is the way they play defense. UM
Speaker 1: in the sense that you know, I I do my
Speaker 1: defensive rankings in a couple of different ways. When you
Speaker 1: look at past defense, UM, look at yards per tempt
Speaker 1: adjusted for strength of schedule, they're twelve, so that would
Speaker 1: be pretty good. But when you look at success rate
Speaker 1: adjusted for opponent there and I think that's the more
Speaker 1: important number here. And you can kind of see that
Speaker 1: in the Chargers game. The Charges at eight drives in
Speaker 1: that game against Kansas City, they scored four touchdowns, they
Speaker 1: threw two picks, and they punted twice. But but what
Speaker 1: I think Kansas City does is they just don't they
Speaker 1: know they suck, and they just you know, play off
Speaker 1: the line of scrimmage and and and let you kind
Speaker 1: of do what you want. So the Chargers had a
Speaker 1: lot of drives in there. Clearly the charges are a
Speaker 1: great offense, so that's part of that. But yeah, I
Speaker 1: mean the Chiefs, uh, just I'm very fascinated with their defense.
Speaker 1: And um, you know, mahomes can't win games for them.
Speaker 1: And I think you know, obviously the cream Hunt thing
Speaker 1: is probably affecting this offense. But but I think defensive
Speaker 1: coordinators are probably starting to figure this guy out a
Speaker 1: little bit more and you're gonna start to see that
Speaker 1: more and especially continuing into the playoffs. And I'm just
Speaker 1: interested to see both how that plays out and as
Speaker 1: well as just can this defense do anything. I mean,
Speaker 1: even with Eric Barry back. I came back in that
Speaker 1: Chargers game Damian Williams last week against the Chargers in defeat.
Speaker 1: Ten carries forty nine yards, two touchdowns, six catches for
Speaker 1: seventy four yards, again in defeat. And yes, Chiefs fans
Speaker 1: and Chiefs backers, when hearing Ace will be quick to say,
Speaker 1: and rightfully, so, boy, that Kareem Hunt thing really fell
Speaker 1: into your lab, didn't it. Ace. They'll say that. And
Speaker 1: the fact that there's still eleven and three, let's point
Speaker 1: that out. It's not like they've fallen off a cliff.
Speaker 1: For god's sakes, Let's talk about Saturday's games because there
Speaker 1: are two games now I said earlier, there four games
Speaker 1: that involve two teams that have to deal with playoff implications.
Speaker 1: It's actually five. I just didn't count the Redskins Titans
Speaker 1: as one of those games because the Redskins. Even though
Speaker 1: the Redskins are only a half game out of a
Speaker 1: playoff spot, I would argue that there has never been
Speaker 1: a team that is only a half game out of
Speaker 1: a playoff spot with just two weeks remaining in a
Speaker 1: season that has as feutal a chance as the Washington
Speaker 1: Redskins do. Because this just it's their fourth quarterback. For
Speaker 1: god's sakes, Josh Johnson, I don't know how they beat
Speaker 1: the Jaguars, yet somehow they did on a tipped ball,
Speaker 1: largely in part because of a tip ball to Jamison Crowder.
Speaker 1: Josh Johnson, this is a true story. I am not
Speaker 1: trying to be funny. Last week he actually played Madden
Speaker 1: NFL nineteen to learn all of his new teammates names.
Speaker 1: That's just the truth that that actually happened. So first
Speaker 1: victory of his career. But when you when you hold
Speaker 1: the opposition to less than a yard per path attempt, yeah,
Speaker 1: you get yourself a chance to win the game. Cody Kessler,
Speaker 1: For God's sakes, right, Cody Kesler, who uh ended up
Speaker 1: with what was it total US nine completions. Yeah, when
Speaker 1: you factor in the sacks, it comes out to twenty
Speaker 1: net passing yards. So uh, it's not gonna be Cody
Speaker 1: Kesler in the Jaguars. Is Marcus Mariota as uh Mike
Speaker 1: Jorico likes to pronounce that. They correct Hawaiian pronunciation Mariota,
Speaker 1: who uh only through for eighty eight yards in victory
Speaker 1: for the Titans in the rain against the Giants. Tennessee
Speaker 1: blanked the Giants last week in the driving rain storm.
Speaker 1: They don't need to when Derrick Henry is going crazy
Speaker 1: two hundred forty eight yards the week before, a hundred
Speaker 1: seventy on a career high thirty three carries against the Giants. Actually,
Speaker 1: those four hundred and eight combined yards, what did I
Speaker 1: say to forty eight? That means he rush for two
Speaker 1: thirty eight the previous game? Sorry about that, but four
Speaker 1: oh eight over the last two games the best in
Speaker 1: the Titans era Earl Campbell. The Tyler Rose did run
Speaker 1: for more than that over a two game stretch with
Speaker 1: the Houston Oilers. But you get the idea. Tennessee is
Speaker 1: favored by ten in this game against the Redskins that's
Speaker 1: one game on atur Day. Let's call it ten and
Speaker 1: a half now in some locations, then super good game.
Speaker 1: Baltimore at the Chargers. Baltimore is eight and six. Like
Speaker 1: the Titans, Baltimore, Tennessee, and Indianapolis are all tied at
Speaker 1: eight and six for the number two wild card position.
Speaker 1: Baltimore is also just a half game behind the Pittsburgh Steelers,
Speaker 1: as Marco knows very well in the a f C North,
Speaker 1: so this is huge for them with Lamar Jackson under center.
Speaker 1: Lamar Jackson's four and one thus far with the Ravens,
Speaker 1: and we'll never see Joe Flacco ever again in a
Speaker 1: Ravens uniform barring injury. And then there's the Chargers, who
Speaker 1: I've been talking about all week on a numbers game
Speaker 1: at Visa, UH, since that performance on Thursday, even before
Speaker 1: when I was accumulating Chargers futures and I was telling
Speaker 1: everybody that I was. Philip Rivers is having one of
Speaker 1: the most spectacular careers you'll ever see when all his
Speaker 1: contemporaries are going down by the wayside. Eli is Eli,
Speaker 1: Drew Brees is having some some rough stars here late.
Speaker 1: Big Ben is making mistakes like he's never made before.
Speaker 1: Tom Brady is not the Tom Brady of old. All
Speaker 1: of these guys are suspect. And here's Philip Rivers having
Speaker 1: the best damn season of his career and he's just
Speaker 1: not appreciated. He's going to the Hall of Fame. People
Speaker 1: should stop with this debate and forgive me for those
Speaker 1: who listen to the Visa show with me repeating myself.
Speaker 1: But he's never had any offensive lineman of any repute.
Speaker 1: He never gets hurt. He, unlike the Saints, the Rams
Speaker 1: and the Chiefs, never has receivers running wide open in
Speaker 1: the field. He's a pinpoint passers shot putting them the ball.
Speaker 1: He rarely uses play action, which I don't understand, which
Speaker 1: would make those receivers that much more open. And yet
Speaker 1: here he is and the Chargers with the best record
Speaker 1: in the a f C, gonna try to keep pressure
Speaker 1: on the Chiefs as we talked about earlier, for the
Speaker 1: number one seed, otherwise they will be the number one
Speaker 1: wild card Chargers by four and a half. Ace. We
Speaker 1: start with you on this one. Is there a game
Speaker 1: here of the two that you like better than the other? Yeah,
Speaker 1: to share info with our listeners. Washington, Tennessee, personally haven't
Speaker 1: touched it a group. I provide accounts for it. They
Speaker 1: took Washington plus ten and a half. Um, I always
Speaker 1: take a percentage of the the account, so obviously I have
Speaker 1: something writing on that sign. But I I piggyback the
Speaker 1: ones that I like a lot and release them. You
Speaker 1: know that the to my guys, um, and I haven't
Speaker 1: with that Washington one at all. I just not confident
Speaker 1: in it. But personally at the side I like in
Speaker 1: those matchups. I like, uh, the Chargers. I do in
Speaker 1: that matchup, but I think the line should be a
Speaker 1: little bit higher than it was. Um. You know, you
Speaker 1: see this Baltimore team. I know Charges are coming off
Speaker 1: a big win, but I don't think this is a
Speaker 1: leftdown spot for them. I mean they got Denver on deck, granted,
Speaker 1: but this is a team that that's been focused. Other
Speaker 1: than that one point loss against Denver. I mean, they've
Speaker 1: just been playing really good football, even when they turned
Speaker 1: the ball over their winning games. That's what's most impressive.
Speaker 1: I Mean they were minus two and turnovers that Kansas
Speaker 1: City and won that game. You know when you can
Speaker 1: do that, uh, you're you're playing really well. I like
Speaker 1: the Chargers, right now ride that momentum, something I don't
Speaker 1: usually do. When a team looks that good, they're usually
Speaker 1: gonna be over bound. You. I don't see it here.
Speaker 1: I really don't keeping it out at that price of four.
Speaker 1: I don't know why I thought the line should be
Speaker 1: closer to six. But I like the Chargers. Yeah, it's
Speaker 1: actually more four than four and a half. I think
Speaker 1: the Chargers going to the Super Bowl. I really do.
Speaker 1: Most balanced team in the a f C to me,
Speaker 1: Although if you talk to any Chargers fan, they will
Speaker 1: sit there and they will say to you, if the
Speaker 1: Chargers lose this, this would be the most Chargers thing ever,
Speaker 1: So you never know. By the way the Charges. I
Speaker 1: feel for old San Diego Chargers fans because they were
Speaker 1: such a loyal fan base to this franchise and it
Speaker 1: must be so conflicting for them now to see this
Speaker 1: team that left San Diego to play at StubHub and
Speaker 1: see their success now and wonder, really, after all these years,
Speaker 1: is this one you're really gonna put it together? So
Speaker 1: I gotta be tough for them. Ed any take on
Speaker 1: any of these two games here Saturday? Yeah, I mean
Speaker 1: I think, uh, I mean, I'm fascinated with the Chargers.
Speaker 1: I I do think they are should be a super
Speaker 1: well favorite coming out of a f C basically because
Speaker 1: of balance on both sides of the ball. My numbers
Speaker 1: like both uh, the offense and the defense. UM. And
Speaker 1: then you know, the this Tennessee Washington game kind of
Speaker 1: cracks me up. We'll talk about this later, but you
Speaker 1: look at these teams that are not very good but
Speaker 1: favored by more than a touchdown at home to Tennessee, Dallas, Indy,
Speaker 1: and Cleveland. Like, none of those teams kind of past
Speaker 1: the smell test for you know, being any kind of
Speaker 1: Super Bowl contender. Yet they're big favorites. And I mean
Speaker 1: you can clearly see why for the Tennessee in Cleveland
Speaker 1: because you know, the opposing starting quarterbacks are out. Washington's
Speaker 1: on their their fourth quarterback. UM. But yeah, that that
Speaker 1: really fascinates me about this week in particular. Yeah, Redskins
Speaker 1: on their fourth quarterback, on their makeshift offensive line with
Speaker 1: skill players that have been mostly out of the lineup
Speaker 1: this year. Just a decimated offense, Marco either one of these.
Speaker 1: Yeah for me, the Tennessee lines too. You know, I
Speaker 1: can't lay ten points with a team that struggles to
Speaker 1: score your pay in a premium you want to take
Speaker 1: them because of the must win. The intriguing game, obviously
Speaker 1: is Baltimore and the Charges. And I think what you're
Speaker 1: gonna get here is you're gonna get a mix from
Speaker 1: the betters, the guys that crunch the numbers and are
Speaker 1: strictly numbers guys. They're gonna be on Baltimore because you
Speaker 1: get a defense like Baltimore's getting points, they're always gonna
Speaker 1: line up there. But for me watching these games, and
Speaker 1: this is where you gotta just you know, sometimes you
Speaker 1: gotta set numbers aside and look and see what you're
Speaker 1: seeing and understand what you're seeing. Lamar Jackson has more
Speaker 1: rushing attempts a hundred and fourteen I believe it is
Speaker 1: to seventy three pass completions. That's not a formula that
Speaker 1: you can continue to keep getting away with. And you
Speaker 1: look at the teams that they've played during this streak.
Speaker 1: He's been the starter for five games, their four and
Speaker 1: one straight up with him at the helm. But they
Speaker 1: beat Incinnati, who's decimated with injuries, Oakland pitiful defense, Atlanta
Speaker 1: who this is a totally lost season. Kansas City doesn't
Speaker 1: have a good defense, and then last week Tampa Bay
Speaker 1: one of the worst defenses in the league. We fought
Speaker 1: in the Kansas City game that if Baltimore fell behind
Speaker 1: by two scores because of that Kansas City offense, what
Speaker 1: would Lamar Jackson do if he had to use his arms. Well,
Speaker 1: they never fell behind by two scores because their defense
Speaker 1: and Casey was so bad that Baltimore was able to
Speaker 1: keep moving to football. Will they have that success against
Speaker 1: the Chargers. The Chargers have a decent defense. It's not great,
Speaker 1: but it's the best defense that Lamar Jackson will have faced.
Speaker 1: And they've got a very capable offense that is playing
Speaker 1: well right now. I just think that this game gets
Speaker 1: to ten, a ten point lead for for the Chargers,
Speaker 1: and then Baltimore has got to push the envelope and
Speaker 1: then we might see the turnovers by Lamar Jackson. I
Speaker 1: I leaned to the Chargers, but but it's a tough
Speaker 1: one because you look at the numbers, and I'm old
Speaker 1: school and I believe in that you give me the
Speaker 1: better defense getting points, I'm usually there of the time. Hey, Marko,
Speaker 1: I just gotta jump in real quick in as a
Speaker 1: numbers guy, I mean my numbers say he charges by
Speaker 1: about three and a half, so not a ton of
Speaker 1: value at four at all. Um, So, I mean maybe
Speaker 1: lean Baltimore, but that's that's what my numbers that are
Speaker 1: available to members of my side say. Lamar Jackson last
Speaker 1: last week against the Bucks fourteen excuse me, fourteen and
Speaker 1: twenty three for one thirty one one touchdown, nose sacks,
Speaker 1: sack two times, eighteen carries ninety five yards, averaging five
Speaker 1: point three yards per rush. I'm with you, Marco on
Speaker 1: on everything you say about Lamar Jackson. I'm not buying
Speaker 1: it yet, that's for sure. Baltimore has hitched its wagon
Speaker 1: to him, though four point favorites are four point dogs
Speaker 1: rather four and a half point dogs in some spots
Speaker 1: at the Chargers Saturday evening. All right, Sunday games, like,
Speaker 1: oh my god, I have so much gold for this
Speaker 1: is the hardest part of my job, narrowing it down
Speaker 1: for winners, free for you guys. So yeah, here's what
Speaker 1: I'm gonna give you something I already bet, um already
Speaker 1: fired on. Uh actually bet the side and the total
Speaker 1: on this game, and that's Cleveland and Cincinnati. I can't
Speaker 1: give you Cleveland because I gave it to my guys
Speaker 1: that mine is seven. It's now up the close to tents,
Speaker 1: so no value there, but we could still get some
Speaker 1: money on that on their guys because this game, I've
Speaker 1: been given a total I don't think all season, maybe one,
Speaker 1: and I said, I gotta wait for one where I
Speaker 1: don't think five quarters could get the game over the total,
Speaker 1: and I think this is that game. Um. Cleveland's defense
Speaker 1: has really stepped up, man. Other than those twenty nine
Speaker 1: points to Houston, over the last five weeks, they've been
Speaker 1: absolutely phenomenal. And those twenty nine points they gave up
Speaker 1: to Houston, they gave four had four turnovers in that game. Um,
Speaker 1: So it's hard to keep a team out of the
Speaker 1: end zone when you turn the ball over four time.
Speaker 1: So I'll give him a pass there. Then on the
Speaker 1: flip side, granted, Cincinnati put up thirty points, but that
Speaker 1: was against Oakland last week. Again, beneficiaries up some turnovers,
Speaker 1: were able to run the football for almost two hundred yards, um,
Speaker 1: something they're not gonna do against the Cleveland Browns. And offensively,
Speaker 1: you look at Cincinnati over the last six weeks. So
Speaker 1: Oakland out the wind though they haven't been able to
Speaker 1: put up more than twenty one any of those weeks.
Speaker 1: I don't see this team crack in twenty UM, keep
Speaker 1: them in those low teams. I think Cleveland gets into
Speaker 1: the twenties. This one barely cracks forty. Give me to
Speaker 1: under forty four and a half. Uh, I feel better
Speaker 1: forty five. It's one of those, you know, not maybe
Speaker 1: it goes back up, you get the forty five. I
Speaker 1: bet it on their forty six and a half, forty six,
Speaker 1: forty five and a half and on their forty five. UM,
Speaker 1: that's where I stopped. But I'd still forty four and
Speaker 1: a half. No reason that to stop there. This game
Speaker 1: don't crack the forties, all right, Cincinnati Cleveland under forty
Speaker 1: four and a half? Right now? As we do this
Speaker 1: on Thursday morning, A saying even if it were five
Speaker 1: quarters ed, what do you like on Sunday? Yeah, I
Speaker 1: mean the game I'm looking at is uh Tampa Bay
Speaker 1: at Dallas. We already talked about these four teams that
Speaker 1: are not very good and yet more than touchdown favorite
Speaker 1: UM and Dallas doesn't. It doesn't impress me on either
Speaker 1: side of the ball when you look at their numbers.
Speaker 1: There my past offense ranking on defense, just just nothing
Speaker 1: strikes out stands out about this team. And if you
Speaker 1: look at Tampa Bay, you know that we've talked about
Speaker 1: how their defenses is terrible, but but they've been able
Speaker 1: to chuck the ball around this year. I mean, I
Speaker 1: know Jameis Winson got benched, but um, they throw the
Speaker 1: ball around. And they are third in my past offensive breaking.
Speaker 1: So that's taking yards per past attempting and adjusting for
Speaker 1: strength of schedule. My numbers, um would make uh. My
Speaker 1: numbers would make Dallas at three and a half point favorite.
Speaker 1: So I would take the points with Tampa Bay in
Speaker 1: that game. Taking the Boys with Tampa Bay, that's a
Speaker 1: that's a lot of points. Cowboys clinched the NFC East
Speaker 1: with the wind Tampa Bay always live. I will say
Speaker 1: this the home road splits. I've been talking about them
Speaker 1: all year long in the NFL. No season with bigger
Speaker 1: chasms and home road splits than this one. Dallas the
Speaker 1: quintessential home road team, just crushing it at home, uh
Speaker 1: and not getting it done on the road. Tampa Bay
Speaker 1: also has some severe home road splits as well. Dallas
Speaker 1: six and one straight up at home two and five
Speaker 1: on the road. Uh, Tampa Bay four and three at home,
Speaker 1: one in six straight up all the road. Obviously points
Speaker 1: spread involved here. That is a lot of points for
Speaker 1: the Tampa Bay Buccaneers to get though, that's for sure. Marco.
Speaker 1: What are you looking at on Sunday? Gil, Just a
Speaker 1: quick note for you. Just in Washington, Redskins, No, Jordan
Speaker 1: Read officially out for Saturday. Yeah, another blow to your team.
Speaker 1: Jordan Read, who had for much of the season being
Speaker 1: the only one that remained healthy on that offense, which
Speaker 1: is funny because he was always the guy that was brittle,
Speaker 1: couldn't quite make it through the whole season. So it
Speaker 1: wasn't he wasn't even the backup quarterback in one of
Speaker 1: those games. No, that was a Quinn. That was a
Speaker 1: wide receiver trade Quinn. Yeah, all right, thanks for that, Marco,
Speaker 1: thanks so much. I'm sorry it came across my sad
Speaker 1: was breaking news. I'm sorry. Uh you the one I'm
Speaker 1: gonna go to. And I love how people just they
Speaker 1: jump on the bandwagon so fast, they jump off it
Speaker 1: so fast. I don't know how people don't break legs
Speaker 1: jumping on and off the way they do. I think
Speaker 1: I know where you're going. I think I know where
Speaker 1: you're going. I'm going Houston, Philadelphia. That's exactly where I
Speaker 1: thought you were going. I've made this point all week. Yeah,
Speaker 1: the Philadelphia team, Okay, the Dallas game. Everybody wanted Philadelphia.
Speaker 1: This was the fashionable play because after they had two
Speaker 1: wins against I'm sorry, the New York Giants in the
Speaker 1: Washington Redskins no offense skill. But the Washington game, you
Speaker 1: remember that game, That was the game with Sanchez, you know,
Speaker 1: had to come in and everything. Forget those two wins,
Speaker 1: and then the Dallas game final and overtime was the
Speaker 1: most counterfeit final score you will ever see. They went
Speaker 1: up and down the field on Philadelphia. Now, there was
Speaker 1: a couple of controversial calls that maybe he could have
Speaker 1: changed things, but the fact was Dallas had their way
Speaker 1: with this Philadelphia defense. I don't know what happened last
Speaker 1: week with the Rams. I can tell you when I
Speaker 1: was watching the game as it started and saw all
Speaker 1: week the way the line just kept going up and
Speaker 1: up and up. It reminds me. And I don't remember
Speaker 1: if it was last year or two years ago, but
Speaker 1: do you remember the Sunday night football game that had
Speaker 1: the New York Giants going to Denver, and the Giants
Speaker 1: had all of those injuries, and that line just kept
Speaker 1: rolling go ever nobody wanted them. What happened not only
Speaker 1: did the Giants come or they pulled the upset. And
Speaker 1: I think the Rams was a combination of losing the
Speaker 1: Bear game twice because it was such a big game
Speaker 1: and they got there, they got a punch in the
Speaker 1: gut and a real dose of reality that they're not
Speaker 1: what they think they are because the Bears really intimidated them,
Speaker 1: made them look bad. Jared Goff was horrible, four turn interceptions,
Speaker 1: and I think there was a carryover effect coming into
Speaker 1: the Philly game. And then WinCE is out. Oh, we
Speaker 1: just gotta show up here and we're gonna win this game.
Speaker 1: Do you remember how bad Philly was at the beginning
Speaker 1: of the year with falls, Well, he had his good
Speaker 1: game the injured player theory. Now it's the second week
Speaker 1: they got to cover. I don't see him doing it again.
Speaker 1: This Houston team has done nothing wrong all season. Uh,
Speaker 1: since they lost the first three, they rolled off nine
Speaker 1: in a row and then they lose to one of
Speaker 1: the hottest teams in the league. That nobody wants to
Speaker 1: play right now. That might not make the playoffs in
Speaker 1: the end. Annapolis Colts Um, they had a snooze fest
Speaker 1: on Saturday night against the Jets, so they get an
Speaker 1: extra day's rest. That was basically just a scrimmage. Philadelphia
Speaker 1: played on the West Coast on Sunday night. Travel back
Speaker 1: home with the East coast. You've got that advantage. They
Speaker 1: had a late night, so lose if you want to
Speaker 1: say half a day. Houston's got into dang. I love Houston.
Speaker 1: I'm taking them as the best bet. And you know what,
Speaker 1: remember that teaser I said on were Seattle. Well, the
Speaker 1: other end of it's gonna be Houston right now while
Speaker 1: you're still getting points. I think by the time we
Speaker 1: get the game time, it's not gonna be there. Do
Speaker 1: it now, guys, Seattle Houston in a teaser book. It
Speaker 1: like he says, free money. They're printing it. Just go
Speaker 1: pick it up. We're thinking along the same lines, Marco.
Speaker 1: We are seeing these teasers. I don't know if that's
Speaker 1: good or bad. Gill, I think that's very good for you,
Speaker 1: young man. I think that's very good. I think you
Speaker 1: know you asked. That's my answer. Um, I'm with you,
Speaker 1: though I'm guessing lines on Monday, I thought Houston would
Speaker 1: be favorite in this game. I thought Houston would be
Speaker 1: favorite in this game, only to find out that the
Speaker 1: effects of recency are as real as ever. Uh, and
Speaker 1: Philly is the favorite now this does appear. So it
Speaker 1: opened at Houston, I guess in some spot open at
Speaker 1: Houston minus one and a half, though I never saw
Speaker 1: where that was, And then quickly it became a Philadelphia.
Speaker 1: It was a pick them before you knew it in
Speaker 1: Philadelphia was favored by as much as two and a half.
Speaker 1: It has come down a little bit, it's like one
Speaker 1: and a half now consensus. It's even come down a
Speaker 1: little today, So you wonder what's gonna happen between now
Speaker 1: and game time. But I'm very with you on the
Speaker 1: overall sentiment that, uh, this is a line that surprises
Speaker 1: me in in many ways minus wanted to have. Total
Speaker 1: in this game is at forty six. All right, gentlemen.
Speaker 1: Before we get to the final two questions of the show,
Speaker 1: a reminder as always that support for today's show as
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Speaker 1: enjoy it during bowl season as well. All the favorites
Speaker 1: except for Georgia Southern. I guess they didn't close as
Speaker 1: a favorite. But so far in bowl season, every single
Speaker 1: favorite has come home. What a strange beginning to the
Speaker 1: college football bull season. We'll see if that continues through
Speaker 1: the weekend before there's a mini break before bull season
Speaker 1: really gets serious next week. All right, gentlemen, Then the
Speaker 1: final two questions are as follows. As always, which of
Speaker 1: the big favorites is the most likely to lose? Outright? Boy,
Speaker 1: do we have a slew of them. In fact, we
Speaker 1: have three games that are double digits. Well, actually, in
Speaker 1: some places it's really five. There are five different games
Speaker 1: where you're looking at double digits. Let's start with the
Speaker 1: game we already talked about Tennessee on Saturday. Ten point
Speaker 1: favorites at home against the Washington Redskins. New England thirteen
Speaker 1: and a half point favorites at home against the Buffalo Bills. Obviously,
Speaker 1: the breaking news this morning, sad news, Josh Gordon taking
Speaker 1: another leave, not expected to play again this season. Some
Speaker 1: reports say it has to do with uh violating the
Speaker 1: rules that were in place for him to join the Patriots. Uh,
Speaker 1: your brain goes to certain things that have affected Josh
Speaker 1: in the past, and your brain also goes to, will
Speaker 1: we ever see Josh Gordon play football again in the
Speaker 1: National Football League? Gordon who led the Patriots and yards
Speaker 1: receiving and yards per catch this year eighteen yards per
Speaker 1: catch for Josh Gordon, Patriots favorite by thirteen and a
Speaker 1: half in that game. Uh. Then there's the Colts nine
Speaker 1: point favorites consensus right now hosting the Giants as the
Speaker 1: Colts try to shut out a second NFC East team
Speaker 1: in as many weeks. Uh, Cleveland, we talked about them
Speaker 1: nine and a half point favorites somewhere in that pocket
Speaker 1: hosting the Cincinnati Bengals, Arizona fourteen point dogs, the Rams
Speaker 1: fourteen point favorites on the road at Arizona. Uh. Those
Speaker 1: are the big ones. Those are all the big ones,
Speaker 1: either on the cusp of ten points are greater or
Speaker 1: in double digits comfortably, Which of those big favorites, ed
Speaker 1: is the most likely to lose out right? In your opinion?
Speaker 1: I was gonna I was gonna talk about Tampa Bay again,
Speaker 1: but I guess we're going with ten plus. I'll go
Speaker 1: with the newer Giants here. Um, And I think this
Speaker 1: is you know, less about the Giants and more about
Speaker 1: my questions with the Colts and the to their defense, Um,
Speaker 1: their last when I look at success rated justin first
Speaker 1: strength of schedule, Uh, they're not doing much better on
Speaker 1: the past defense by adjusted yards per attempt one So
Speaker 1: you know, um, it's it's just a team that I'm
Speaker 1: not I'm not impressed with so far. I know they've
Speaker 1: done on some decent side, decent things on the offense
Speaker 1: side of the ball with with Andrew luck and and
Speaker 1: Marlon Mack running the ball. But I'll take the New
Speaker 1: York Giants. Okay, So the so the Colts most likely
Speaker 1: of that group to lose out right, if given your
Speaker 1: druthers I love the word druthers, you would have taken
Speaker 1: Dallas as a seven point favorite hosting the Tampa Bay
Speaker 1: Buccaneers seven seven and a half. Somewhere in that pocket
Speaker 1: Marco biggest favorite, most likely lose out right in your opinion, Yeah,
Speaker 1: you didn't put the You didn't put any of the
Speaker 1: six pointers in this week. No, I didn't because I
Speaker 1: didn't need to. But if I did, also you get
Speaker 1: two tiers. Just like Ed just said, double digit tier
Speaker 1: would be the Colts. Then if you default, he went
Speaker 1: to Dallas, so you can get the same kind of answer. Yeah,
Speaker 1: if I did this, um boy, I'll tell you what. Uh,
Speaker 1: this is gonna be ball z. But I'm gonna look
Speaker 1: at New England right now. This is you know, with
Speaker 1: the Josh Gordon and you know stuff. This team is
Speaker 1: just I mean, they're You've got Buffalo. You're gonna see
Speaker 1: Josh Allen running all over the place. This guy has
Speaker 1: been amazing the last several weeks. You know, down the
Speaker 1: stretch in New England to me, looked like a tired
Speaker 1: team last week, and this is team has played a
Speaker 1: lot of road games. You look at their schedule of
Speaker 1: what they've done and the way this NFL put their
Speaker 1: schedule up this week. I talked about it. It It was
Speaker 1: one of the reasons why, you know, one of the
Speaker 1: many reasons that I had Pittsburgh last week. But uh,
Speaker 1: I just they're not the same team, and that that's
Speaker 1: gonna be ball z. If you're making me go to
Speaker 1: the double digits because I don't want to go against Indianapolis.
Speaker 1: They're just playing too good. Do I want to lay
Speaker 1: the points with them? No? But the one I was
Speaker 1: gonna throw in if we go to the lower tier
Speaker 1: minute soda. Laying six at Detroit as bad as Detroit is,
Speaker 1: Minnesota is just they beat up on the teams that
Speaker 1: they can in. This line is absolutely ridiculous. Now, I
Speaker 1: know Detroit's bad, but do you realize that when they
Speaker 1: played at Minnesota, the closing number was five and a half.
Speaker 1: They're playing six on the road. You're you're gonna tell me?
Speaker 1: I know, you know, Golden Tate's gone, there's you know,
Speaker 1: Matthew Stafford's banged up. But I'm gonna go with the
Speaker 1: misery loves Company, uh attitude here. The season's over for
Speaker 1: Detroit and it's been for a long time. But this
Speaker 1: is a division rival that you could put You know,
Speaker 1: you can play the role of spoiler. If you're not
Speaker 1: going to the playoffs, why not try to prevent somebody
Speaker 1: else you know that needs this win bad. I got
Speaker 1: Detroit if we're gonna go, if we include the six.
Speaker 1: Agree with what you're saying there. This would be so
Speaker 1: like Detroit to show up for this game. And I
Speaker 1: just don't know about Minnesota. I know everybody's excited because
Speaker 1: they went to the run last week. Uh. Some advanced
Speaker 1: analytics guys like Laren Sharper will tell you that's exactly
Speaker 1: the wrong thing for the Vikings to do on a
Speaker 1: long term basis. Um, yeah that Edward, agree right there?
Speaker 1: All right? UM A same question. Two tiers of the
Speaker 1: double digit ones are the ones that are flirting with
Speaker 1: double digness and then knock it down to uh the
Speaker 1: next year, who would be the most likely to lose
Speaker 1: out right? In your opinion? Agree with Marco. As far
Speaker 1: as the Minnesota Detroit, I made my line four. The
Speaker 1: look ahead was three at open four and a half.
Speaker 1: Now it's up to six. Um, that's way too high.
Speaker 1: I like Detroit, plus the point saying if I like
Speaker 1: a dog, especially at home, I'm gonna sprinkle money line.
Speaker 1: So that has it. Um. But as far as value goes,
Speaker 1: like last week's Eagles, UM, I needed a little more.
Speaker 1: I wanted four to one, and I'd be on those
Speaker 1: Giants too. If it gets the four to one, that
Speaker 1: that's that's gonna be a bet for me, Like the
Speaker 1: Eagles at five to one. UM. Right now it's at
Speaker 1: like three seven d the highest I could find, UM
Speaker 1: one a little bit more. Hopefully it gets there. I
Speaker 1: think they're the Colts are a beatable Man. And more importantly,
Speaker 1: I love the how both these teams are coming off
Speaker 1: the kind of the opposite spectrum. You have the Giants
Speaker 1: coming off being shut out, Colts coming off having shut
Speaker 1: out Dallas. Um, I mean, it sets up nicely for
Speaker 1: for the Giants to bounce back and get a win.
Speaker 1: And prior to that game, let's not forget they had
Speaker 1: one four out of the five their last five games,
Speaker 1: and more importantly, they were dogs and three of those
Speaker 1: five and the one they did lose was by a
Speaker 1: field goal UM on the road to Philadelphia. And if
Speaker 1: you look at the splits, UM, I mean, Giants got
Speaker 1: more wins on I mean a better record three and
Speaker 1: four on the road compared to two and five UM
Speaker 1: at home. So give me the Giants also, but let's
Speaker 1: try to get four to one on our money, then
Speaker 1: that would definitely be worth the bet. A testament to
Speaker 1: what this week in the NFL is like the fact
Speaker 1: that we had a two tier answer to that question.
Speaker 1: Rare that that happens, But lots of games with large
Speaker 1: spreads of six points or more, many of which were
Speaker 1: double digits or flirting with that final question, you had
Speaker 1: to bet aside in each of these Bizarro exercise sixteen
Speaker 1: games in the NFL you must bet aside and fifteen
Speaker 1: of them. Which is the game you want to pass on? Ed? Yeah,
Speaker 1: I'm passing on Atlanta at Carolina. Carolina has shut down
Speaker 1: Cam Newton for the year. I read it was shoulder fatigue. Yes,
Speaker 1: it seems a little strange to me. Um, they're gonna
Speaker 1: throw out Taylor. Yeah, Taylor Hideki Yeah from Dominion, undrafted
Speaker 1: quarterback with five career pass attempts. And uh, I do numbers,
Speaker 1: but I don't know how to do numbers on Taylor
Speaker 1: Heineke and and uh and you have all kinds of
Speaker 1: crazy things. On the other side of the ball. Atlanta
Speaker 1: has had a crazy season with injuries on the defensive
Speaker 1: side of the ball. I'm looking at Desmond Trufon is questionable,
Speaker 1: Julio Jones. I just don't know what to do with
Speaker 1: that game. Yeah, I hear you. And on the shutdown
Speaker 1: of Cam Newton, that spread shifts from Atlanta being a
Speaker 1: three and a half point dog to Carolina being a
Speaker 1: three and a half point dog. Some might quibble with
Speaker 1: the seven point move from Cam to Taylor. Heinarchy, uh, Marco,
Speaker 1: which is the game you want no part of. Yeah,
Speaker 1: the shutting down of Cam Newton. If you just looked
Speaker 1: at the last drive Monday night, the throws he was made. Dude,
Speaker 1: it was sad. How did they lose that game? He
Speaker 1: lost single handedly lost that game for him that I
Speaker 1: felt so bad for that defense. I live bet that
Speaker 1: last drive. Marco. It's funny you say that because I
Speaker 1: said to my buddy was sitting right next to me.
Speaker 1: I go, I'm jumping in because there is zero chance
Speaker 1: that Cam Newton is going to be able to matriculate
Speaker 1: this ball down the field, even into field goal range.
Speaker 1: Heavily bet against that happening. Anyway, Go ahead. I'm sorry,
Speaker 1: I'm gonna the game I don't want any part of.
Speaker 1: Is the Rams in Arizona. You're laying fourteen points with him.
Speaker 1: The Rams, you know they need to win if they
Speaker 1: want to still try to get that home old advantage,
Speaker 1: you know, still away from the Saints. But what made
Speaker 1: they look ahead line was eleven and a half. Okay,
Speaker 1: they lost last week? How did this line go up?
Speaker 1: Arizona did what we thought they would do. They'd lose
Speaker 1: on the road, but the Rams lost at home, and
Speaker 1: the look ahead line goes from eleven and a half
Speaker 1: to fourteen. Do I want to take the Rams? No?
Speaker 1: Do I trust the Arizona? Hell no, I don't want
Speaker 1: any part of this game. And the Rams need they
Speaker 1: need a confidence building win. So I think, you know,
Speaker 1: this is one of those ones where they could, if
Speaker 1: they get a chance, just keep the you know, foot
Speaker 1: on the gas. But I really think the injury the
Speaker 1: Cup is hurt this Rams offense more than anybody that
Speaker 1: was Um goff security blanket in my opinion. Uh, when
Speaker 1: he needed to go to somebody on third down, he
Speaker 1: was the guy he went to. They're missing him in
Speaker 1: this lineup. I was joking with Michael Lombardi several times
Speaker 1: on my show. I'm like, is Cooper Cup the m
Speaker 1: v P of the National Football League? That I saw
Speaker 1: him tweeting it the other day and I was like, Hey,
Speaker 1: wait a minute, you're stealing my thoughts. Um, But it
Speaker 1: really is. It's like, it's ridiculous how far they've fallen.
Speaker 1: Warren Sharp will tell you it's all about their going
Speaker 1: away from play action passes. Uh. Sean McVeigh, I was
Speaker 1: at Sean McVeigh Truther. But there's a lot that's happened
Speaker 1: in the last few weeks where I like shake my head.
Speaker 1: I'm like, you, forget about Todd Gurley. You're not play
Speaker 1: action passing. These guys aren't getting out of bounds when
Speaker 1: they're supposed to. Like at some point, that's coaching, right,
Speaker 1: Like you know, even even Sean McVeigh is not impervious
Speaker 1: to criticism a same thing. Which game you want? No
Speaker 1: part of this? This was tough. I'm honest. Pretty much
Speaker 1: all these games are bettable Denver Oakland most likely, you know,
Speaker 1: the Monday night game just the way when I haven't
Speaker 1: bet yet, except, like I said, trying to set up
Speaker 1: possibly a middle um. But that's the one that I
Speaker 1: ain't really have any opinion on to do that like
Speaker 1: I did. Okay uh? And I would say, Marco, to
Speaker 1: your rhetorical question, what happened this past week that made
Speaker 1: that line go to fourteen? I think people who were like, oh,
Speaker 1: Josh Rosen is terrible at football were like, oh my god,
Speaker 1: he's even more terrible than we thought that would be.
Speaker 1: It would be my guess what would Tom Brady do
Speaker 1: in that system? Though? Right? Is it all Rosen's fault
Speaker 1: or no? Of course not. And I do agree with
Speaker 1: the sentiment because I I am famous for having said,
Speaker 1: if Peyton Manning were drafted by the Washington Redskins, Peyton
Speaker 1: Manning would never have become Peyton Manning. I really believe that.
Speaker 1: I think there's no sport like football in that regard.
Speaker 1: It really is so dependent on where you end up
Speaker 1: and is an organization stable, is their continuity from year
Speaker 1: to year. If Peyton Manning had a different o C
Speaker 1: every single season in d C, I mean, he wouldn't
Speaker 1: have sucked, but he would never have become the Hall
Speaker 1: of Famer. And there's no way to prove that. But
Speaker 1: I firmly believe that anyway, we've done all we could do. Gentlemen,
Speaker 1: for Week sixteen in the NFL, here's the deal. Once again,
Speaker 1: we're not here for weeks seventeen. We've tried it before,
Speaker 1: hadn't gone well. One day, I was like, Hey, let's
Speaker 1: try a Week seventeen, and so we did it one
Speaker 1: year and it was not fun because there's too much scoreliness.
Speaker 1: And they've also taken away the uh, the many correlated
Speaker 1: parlay opportunities. They've reduced those by making a lot of
Speaker 1: the game's concurrent The final week of the season, So everybody,
Speaker 1: just enjoy your Christmas holiday. The weekend between Christmas and
Speaker 1: New Year's will be back for Wild Car weekends. So
Speaker 1: happy holidays, Merry Christmas, Happy New Year to everybody. Marco,
Speaker 1: Ace and all of you and everybody who listens to
Speaker 1: this show so loyally, not just this year, but through
Speaker 1: the years. We cannot express our appreciation enough. And I
Speaker 1: know I speak for Marco and as on that as well. Indeed,
Speaker 1: happy holidays to everyone. Man, have a safe holiday season
Speaker 1: and enjoy yourself and your families. Man, be'st of luck ahead, health, prosperity,
Speaker 1: all that good stuff. And appreciate you guys listening to
Speaker 1: us each week. Merry Christmas, everybody we do, we appreciate it.
Speaker 1: And guys getting close, it's gonna be about a month away.
Speaker 1: You know what we'll be doing the lifestyle. Oh yes, boy,
Speaker 1: do I have a topic we need to touch on?
Speaker 1: Oh what do you care to Oh my god, it's
Speaker 1: just there's that there's an insanity bruin on Twitter that
Speaker 1: we have to touch on. Oh wait, this companion nonsense
Speaker 1: is really starting to rub me the wrong way. I
Speaker 1: have no idea what he's talking about. Oh, God, this
Speaker 1: is good. All right. That's the weekend between conference championship
Speaker 1: and Super Bowl as well. And for those who have
Speaker 1: never heard that show before, let me just warn you
Speaker 1: in advance. Uh it is. It is a travesty. It
Speaker 1: is a deplorable endeavor that we undertake every year. So
Speaker 1: we'll bring in meltzer. We'll do that one Eda from
Speaker 1: the Power Rank. Second appearance this year. Ed appreciate it, man,
Speaker 1: always appreciate the insight. Hey man, thank you so much
Speaker 1: for having me on. And uh you know, here's the
Speaker 1: Apple not kicking you guys off their podcast for the
Speaker 1: for the lifestyle episode. Thank you appreciate that. And by
Speaker 1: the way, if you have money in the stock market,
Speaker 1: go to your portfolios quickly. That's all I have to say.
Speaker 1: All right, thanks everybody for listening. Good luck with all
Speaker 1: your bets this weekend. Happy holidays. We'll see a week
Speaker 1: after days. Battle Botta ba Babble went Battle Bo