1 00:00:02,440 --> 00:00:08,200 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. Ken Griffin, thank you 2 00:00:08,240 --> 00:00:10,119 Speaker 1: so much for joining us here in Doha. Eric, it 3 00:00:10,200 --> 00:00:12,400 Speaker 1: is great to be here today. We have a lot 4 00:00:12,440 --> 00:00:14,280 Speaker 1: to talk about as usual, folks. 5 00:00:15,160 --> 00:00:19,160 Speaker 2: I have been fortunate enough to have a long standing 6 00:00:19,200 --> 00:00:22,919 Speaker 2: relationship with Ken and have had the opportunity to interview 7 00:00:22,960 --> 00:00:23,759 Speaker 2: him many times. 8 00:00:25,000 --> 00:00:26,239 Speaker 1: I think of this as. 9 00:00:28,840 --> 00:00:31,319 Speaker 2: An evolution in so many ways, Ken, of things that 10 00:00:31,320 --> 00:00:33,480 Speaker 2: we've touched on in the past. One of those things, 11 00:00:33,479 --> 00:00:36,640 Speaker 2: of course, is geopolitics, a subject. 12 00:00:36,640 --> 00:00:40,120 Speaker 1: In order a graceful way to describe aging an. 13 00:00:39,920 --> 00:00:47,599 Speaker 2: Evolution, geopolitics is a subject that has come up already 14 00:00:47,600 --> 00:00:48,880 Speaker 2: many times on this stage. 15 00:00:48,920 --> 00:00:49,240 Speaker 1: Ken. 16 00:00:49,720 --> 00:00:52,839 Speaker 2: The world, as you know, is divided by conflicts. We 17 00:00:52,920 --> 00:00:55,600 Speaker 2: have hot wars in Ukraine and Gaza, and a cold 18 00:00:55,640 --> 00:00:58,680 Speaker 2: war you might say, between the United States and China, 19 00:00:58,760 --> 00:01:04,320 Speaker 2: and increasingly these conflicts are forcing states to pick sides, 20 00:01:04,959 --> 00:01:10,360 Speaker 2: and thus they're realigning global trade and investment. What we'd 21 00:01:10,560 --> 00:01:15,120 Speaker 2: like here, Ken, is your perspective on the trajectory of 22 00:01:15,160 --> 00:01:20,319 Speaker 2: these geopolitical trends and your ideas as to how they're 23 00:01:20,400 --> 00:01:24,880 Speaker 2: shaping or perhaps reshaping the macroeconomic landscape. You have to 24 00:01:24,959 --> 00:01:28,199 Speaker 2: navigate at your firm Citadel and citadel securities. 25 00:01:30,040 --> 00:01:32,080 Speaker 3: So that's a great question because it was just a 26 00:01:32,080 --> 00:01:36,399 Speaker 3: few years ago that I think most of us viewed 27 00:01:36,440 --> 00:01:39,759 Speaker 3: the world as heading towards geopolitical stability. 28 00:01:39,360 --> 00:01:42,000 Speaker 1: A better place in other words, yeah, yes. 29 00:01:42,080 --> 00:01:45,760 Speaker 3: And a more integrated market, both financial flows of goods, 30 00:01:45,840 --> 00:01:47,480 Speaker 3: flows of services, and. 31 00:01:47,400 --> 00:01:48,960 Speaker 1: Even the integration of labor markets. 32 00:01:49,840 --> 00:01:54,680 Speaker 3: And now with both the war and Europe, the tension 33 00:01:54,680 --> 00:01:58,680 Speaker 3: between the United States and China, and then in a 34 00:01:58,680 --> 00:02:02,440 Speaker 3: different way, what's on in the Middle East between Israel 35 00:02:04,320 --> 00:02:07,760 Speaker 3: and Hamas, it's very clear we live in a different 36 00:02:07,760 --> 00:02:11,160 Speaker 3: world than we had all experienced and fantasized about just 37 00:02:11,200 --> 00:02:16,920 Speaker 3: a few years ago. Now, the upshot of this is 38 00:02:16,960 --> 00:02:23,080 Speaker 3: that the traditional alliances post World War Two are regaining strength. 39 00:02:23,360 --> 00:02:26,320 Speaker 3: You see the NATO countries coming together more tightly. You 40 00:02:26,440 --> 00:02:31,800 Speaker 3: see the United States trying to pull its allies closer together, 41 00:02:31,919 --> 00:02:38,320 Speaker 3: whether it's Australia in the Pacific or our allies in Europe. 42 00:02:38,440 --> 00:02:43,200 Speaker 1: So there is definitely a reassertion. 43 00:02:42,639 --> 00:02:46,320 Speaker 3: Of the importance of global institutions, and in particular the 44 00:02:46,360 --> 00:02:47,519 Speaker 3: post World War two. 45 00:02:47,400 --> 00:02:50,200 Speaker 1: Frameworks that are once again at play. 46 00:02:50,800 --> 00:02:53,720 Speaker 3: As an investor, it's an interesting point in time because 47 00:02:54,000 --> 00:02:57,560 Speaker 3: if you are in the United States, there's a sense 48 00:02:57,600 --> 00:03:01,639 Speaker 3: that deploying capital in the markets of our clear. 49 00:03:01,480 --> 00:03:03,919 Speaker 1: Allies is to say its path to go. 50 00:03:05,280 --> 00:03:08,200 Speaker 3: In fact, you'll often hear American money managers, for example, 51 00:03:08,240 --> 00:03:11,480 Speaker 3: say that China is uninvestable because of. 52 00:03:11,440 --> 00:03:14,360 Speaker 1: The tension between the United States and China. 53 00:03:14,440 --> 00:03:18,320 Speaker 3: That's on clear display. And yet if you're here in 54 00:03:18,360 --> 00:03:21,359 Speaker 3: the Middle East, where China is an important importer of 55 00:03:22,400 --> 00:03:26,840 Speaker 3: oil and other products from across the region, it's a 56 00:03:26,919 --> 00:03:30,280 Speaker 3: very different story. China is clearly investible because of the 57 00:03:30,360 --> 00:03:33,639 Speaker 3: closeness form between China and this part of the world. 58 00:03:33,840 --> 00:03:39,440 Speaker 3: So you do see both the restrengthening of historical relationships, 59 00:03:39,920 --> 00:03:44,000 Speaker 3: new ties being built, and capital follows. 60 00:03:43,520 --> 00:03:48,000 Speaker 1: The flows of these geopolitical arrangements. Are you worried about 61 00:03:48,000 --> 00:03:49,280 Speaker 1: the direction of the world is headed. 62 00:03:51,280 --> 00:03:54,000 Speaker 3: Of course I am, and I'm willing to bet that 63 00:03:54,040 --> 00:03:54,280 Speaker 3: you are. 64 00:03:54,320 --> 00:03:54,640 Speaker 1: Also. 65 00:03:55,120 --> 00:03:57,200 Speaker 3: This is not where we want to see the world 66 00:03:57,240 --> 00:04:00,400 Speaker 3: head for just a number of obvious reasons. I mean, 67 00:04:00,440 --> 00:04:05,640 Speaker 3: first of all, global trade, which had adverse consequences that 68 00:04:05,120 --> 00:04:10,000 Speaker 3: we're learning about to this day, still unleashed an enormous 69 00:04:10,040 --> 00:04:16,240 Speaker 3: amount of gain for humanity. And with the rise of 70 00:04:16,240 --> 00:04:19,520 Speaker 3: global trade became the rise of information sharing, around the world, 71 00:04:19,839 --> 00:04:26,080 Speaker 3: which rapidly accelerated the trajectory of mankind. I mean of 72 00:04:26,160 --> 00:04:29,400 Speaker 3: note the Chinese, for example, our leaders in solar. 73 00:04:29,080 --> 00:04:32,120 Speaker 1: Their leaders in EVS, their leaders in. 74 00:04:32,160 --> 00:04:35,000 Speaker 3: A number of emerging technologies, and a world which is 75 00:04:35,040 --> 00:04:39,039 Speaker 3: more splintered will see the gains that the Chinese have 76 00:04:39,120 --> 00:04:43,280 Speaker 3: achieved in these important areas not shared by the Western countries. 77 00:04:44,080 --> 00:04:47,960 Speaker 3: And conversely, the United States is a clear leader in 78 00:04:48,040 --> 00:04:51,640 Speaker 3: Ai along with a number of the European countries, and 79 00:04:51,880 --> 00:04:56,159 Speaker 3: those gains will not be shared with China and the 80 00:04:56,200 --> 00:04:58,160 Speaker 3: countries in its sphere of influence. 81 00:04:58,480 --> 00:04:59,320 Speaker 1: So it's a very. 82 00:04:59,240 --> 00:05:03,440 Speaker 3: Clear cut loss for all of humanity when we have 83 00:05:03,560 --> 00:05:05,799 Speaker 3: the severing of ties between our countries. 84 00:05:06,240 --> 00:05:10,480 Speaker 2: On a practical level, is it getting harder to manage 85 00:05:10,480 --> 00:05:11,320 Speaker 2: the risks you face? 86 00:05:16,360 --> 00:05:19,200 Speaker 3: I think that one has to be aware that there 87 00:05:19,240 --> 00:05:24,200 Speaker 3: are more tail risks that are harder to ultimately manage, 88 00:05:24,360 --> 00:05:29,000 Speaker 3: and that goes with this rise in geopolitical complexity. So 89 00:05:29,080 --> 00:05:31,719 Speaker 3: I think that's that's certainly true, that there are just 90 00:05:31,839 --> 00:05:35,960 Speaker 3: larger tails today that didn't exist or we didn't perceive 91 00:05:36,000 --> 00:05:38,560 Speaker 3: them to exist seven or eight or ten years ago. 92 00:05:38,920 --> 00:05:41,400 Speaker 3: So that's that is intrinsic and money management today, and 93 00:05:41,400 --> 00:05:42,960 Speaker 3: that's the wit we think about each and every day 94 00:05:42,960 --> 00:05:45,880 Speaker 3: at Citadel is how do we mitigate the tail risks 95 00:05:45,880 --> 00:05:46,560 Speaker 3: in this world? 96 00:05:47,160 --> 00:05:48,800 Speaker 1: How do you mitigate the tail risks? 97 00:05:49,080 --> 00:05:50,880 Speaker 3: Well, part of its sizing, so part of it is 98 00:05:50,920 --> 00:05:54,440 Speaker 3: how much exposure you have to a strategy or to 99 00:05:54,480 --> 00:05:57,440 Speaker 3: a particular sector of the economy or to a particular country. 100 00:05:57,880 --> 00:06:00,400 Speaker 3: That's that is the go to playbook from manage in 101 00:06:00,400 --> 00:06:03,240 Speaker 3: your tails is just what's the most you're willing to 102 00:06:03,279 --> 00:06:07,359 Speaker 3: have exposed to a possible adverse event. And then the 103 00:06:07,400 --> 00:06:10,360 Speaker 3: other strategies to look for correlated payoffs that will protect 104 00:06:10,400 --> 00:06:11,800 Speaker 3: you in the event that. 105 00:06:11,839 --> 00:06:13,080 Speaker 1: The tail scenario occurs. 106 00:06:13,400 --> 00:06:14,920 Speaker 3: So those are two things that you do in your 107 00:06:14,960 --> 00:06:17,480 Speaker 3: portfolio construction to manage against the. 108 00:06:17,400 --> 00:06:18,760 Speaker 1: Tail risk in this environment. 109 00:06:19,640 --> 00:06:24,880 Speaker 2: Ken moments ago, you mentioned China and EVS. As it 110 00:06:24,960 --> 00:06:28,760 Speaker 2: happens today, the Biden administration is levying sweeping new tariffs 111 00:06:29,240 --> 00:06:32,279 Speaker 2: on Chinese imports, including on electric vehicles. 112 00:06:32,279 --> 00:06:33,520 Speaker 1: How does that change the picture. 113 00:06:35,279 --> 00:06:38,680 Speaker 3: It's sort of a continuation of the incoherent economic policies 114 00:06:38,720 --> 00:06:39,800 Speaker 3: of the Biden administration. 115 00:06:41,080 --> 00:06:43,240 Speaker 1: We've seen this giant push. 116 00:06:43,000 --> 00:06:46,560 Speaker 3: Towards green energy over the course of the last several years, 117 00:06:47,080 --> 00:06:49,800 Speaker 3: and at the same time, a set of policies that 118 00:06:49,880 --> 00:06:53,880 Speaker 3: run completely contrary to the stated goal of trying to 119 00:06:53,920 --> 00:06:57,920 Speaker 3: head towards the zero carbon world, and placing enormous tariffs 120 00:06:57,920 --> 00:07:02,600 Speaker 3: on Chinese evs, which are low cost, high quality, of 121 00:07:02,680 --> 00:07:06,200 Speaker 3: great value to American consumers is yet another part of 122 00:07:06,240 --> 00:07:09,760 Speaker 3: the incoherent bid economic strategy. The other part of the 123 00:07:09,760 --> 00:07:12,520 Speaker 3: strategy that I scratched my head about is the US 124 00:07:12,600 --> 00:07:18,680 Speaker 3: refusing to provide new LNG permits. Right, if you want 125 00:07:18,680 --> 00:07:21,400 Speaker 3: the world to head towards a lower carbon footprint and 126 00:07:21,480 --> 00:07:24,640 Speaker 3: move away from coal, access to LNG is a really 127 00:07:24,720 --> 00:07:27,680 Speaker 3: important part of the equation, and yet the United States 128 00:07:27,720 --> 00:07:31,280 Speaker 3: is refusing to permit new facilities in the foreseeable future. 129 00:07:31,240 --> 00:07:34,440 Speaker 2: And also to sell LNG to countries with which the 130 00:07:34,520 --> 00:07:36,240 Speaker 2: United States doesn't have a free trade agreement. 131 00:07:37,840 --> 00:07:38,840 Speaker 1: That's a part of the equation. 132 00:07:38,920 --> 00:07:43,080 Speaker 2: Also that I said, the United States amazingly is a 133 00:07:43,080 --> 00:07:44,720 Speaker 2: bigger LG exporter than Kutar. 134 00:07:46,320 --> 00:07:48,560 Speaker 1: We're and neck. We're neck and neck. 135 00:07:48,880 --> 00:07:52,000 Speaker 3: And it's very important to understand that if you want 136 00:07:52,040 --> 00:07:56,240 Speaker 3: a country to base its economy on natural gas, they're 137 00:07:56,240 --> 00:07:57,680 Speaker 3: going to want two suppliers. 138 00:07:58,880 --> 00:08:01,559 Speaker 1: It's not a wind lose is dynamic between the United 139 00:08:01,560 --> 00:08:03,840 Speaker 1: States and Qatar. It's a win win. 140 00:08:04,360 --> 00:08:08,600 Speaker 3: If you look at any good that is required on 141 00:08:08,680 --> 00:08:12,240 Speaker 3: an existential basis, you're going to want dual source supply. 142 00:08:12,840 --> 00:08:14,880 Speaker 3: And the rise of the United States is a major 143 00:08:15,040 --> 00:08:20,560 Speaker 3: lergy exporter only strengthens the position of this region of 144 00:08:20,600 --> 00:08:23,240 Speaker 3: the world in providing natural gas to other countries. 145 00:08:24,520 --> 00:08:26,880 Speaker 2: Going back to China for a moment. We've talked about 146 00:08:26,960 --> 00:08:29,400 Speaker 2: China in the past. You have what I would call 147 00:08:29,600 --> 00:08:34,280 Speaker 2: a constructive view of China, certainly more constructive than many 148 00:08:34,320 --> 00:08:39,080 Speaker 2: people with whom I've spoken. There is, however, strong hostility 149 00:08:39,120 --> 00:08:44,280 Speaker 2: to China among both Republicans and Democrats. So how would 150 00:08:44,320 --> 00:08:48,640 Speaker 2: you explain the way you look at the opportunity and 151 00:08:48,720 --> 00:08:51,640 Speaker 2: the problem that China presents, particularly to the United States. 152 00:08:53,240 --> 00:08:57,880 Speaker 3: So that's a treacherous question to have to answer. Let's 153 00:08:57,880 --> 00:09:01,920 Speaker 3: take a huge step back. I think that my view 154 00:09:02,120 --> 00:09:06,840 Speaker 3: towards China is rooted in respect. It is rooted in 155 00:09:06,960 --> 00:09:09,520 Speaker 3: the respect of a country that has pulled more people 156 00:09:09,559 --> 00:09:13,920 Speaker 3: out of poverty in the last forty years than than 157 00:09:13,920 --> 00:09:17,520 Speaker 3: any country in the history of the world. It's a 158 00:09:17,600 --> 00:09:23,360 Speaker 3: remarkable economic achievement that they've unleashed in China, and it 159 00:09:23,400 --> 00:09:27,199 Speaker 3: was an economic achievement that the United States firmly supported. 160 00:09:27,679 --> 00:09:30,720 Speaker 3: We believed in America that the rise of a free 161 00:09:30,800 --> 00:09:36,199 Speaker 3: market economy would lead to the rise of a liberal democracy. 162 00:09:36,679 --> 00:09:41,720 Speaker 3: It was an explicit calculation that happened in DC that 163 00:09:41,840 --> 00:09:45,600 Speaker 3: didn't actually happen to happen in reality. So it's important 164 00:09:45,640 --> 00:09:49,720 Speaker 3: to recognize that this was the goal of the United States, 165 00:09:49,960 --> 00:09:53,280 Speaker 3: was to see the economic rise of China, hoping it 166 00:09:53,280 --> 00:09:55,120 Speaker 3: would push it towards a liberal democracy. 167 00:09:55,360 --> 00:09:56,160 Speaker 1: It didn't happen. 168 00:09:56,679 --> 00:10:00,920 Speaker 3: The economy rose, did not become a liberal democracy. Having 169 00:10:01,000 --> 00:10:04,560 Speaker 3: said that, today, China is a powerhouse in research and 170 00:10:04,600 --> 00:10:08,480 Speaker 3: development in a broad number of fields, fields that are 171 00:10:08,559 --> 00:10:11,400 Speaker 3: very important to the future of all of us around 172 00:10:11,440 --> 00:10:14,440 Speaker 3: the world. And so long as we're able to maintain 173 00:10:14,480 --> 00:10:18,640 Speaker 3: a constructive relationship and we can share the best technologies 174 00:10:18,640 --> 00:10:21,840 Speaker 3: that are to countries and all the countries around the 175 00:10:21,840 --> 00:10:23,880 Speaker 3: world develop and build, there's an. 176 00:10:23,800 --> 00:10:24,800 Speaker 1: Opportunity for gain. 177 00:10:26,640 --> 00:10:30,240 Speaker 3: Right now, we have in some sense a very muddled relationship, 178 00:10:30,880 --> 00:10:33,120 Speaker 3: and it's almost as if we're trying to maximize the 179 00:10:33,160 --> 00:10:37,600 Speaker 3: opportunities for mutual pain. And that's a difficult place to be. 180 00:10:38,320 --> 00:10:41,000 Speaker 3: It makes the Chinese weary of trusting the United States. 181 00:10:41,280 --> 00:10:44,040 Speaker 3: It makes the United States wary of trusting China, and 182 00:10:44,120 --> 00:10:46,120 Speaker 3: there's just a lot lost in that equation. 183 00:10:46,640 --> 00:10:49,280 Speaker 2: It would make sense if what the United States wants 184 00:10:49,320 --> 00:10:52,320 Speaker 2: to do is make an enemy of China, but that's 185 00:10:52,320 --> 00:10:52,800 Speaker 2: not clear. 186 00:10:53,160 --> 00:10:55,120 Speaker 3: Well, you know, I don't want to make this a 187 00:10:55,360 --> 00:10:57,560 Speaker 3: US only is going after China. 188 00:10:57,600 --> 00:10:58,760 Speaker 1: It's a two way street. 189 00:10:59,000 --> 00:11:02,320 Speaker 3: I mean, the Chinese for ample supporting Russia's ability to 190 00:11:02,320 --> 00:11:06,000 Speaker 3: wage warn Ukraine doesn't play well in the United States 191 00:11:06,000 --> 00:11:09,240 Speaker 3: of America. So there's room for both countries to take 192 00:11:09,280 --> 00:11:13,640 Speaker 3: definitive acts to just turn the temperature down. And well, 193 00:11:13,720 --> 00:11:15,680 Speaker 3: if it's a coal word, it's to turn the temperature up. 194 00:11:15,679 --> 00:11:19,320 Speaker 3: I'm not sure what shoy you go. But to improve 195 00:11:19,360 --> 00:11:24,199 Speaker 3: the relationships and the dynamic between our two countries, Ken 196 00:11:24,360 --> 00:11:28,080 Speaker 3: Qatar is playing an instrumental role in the peace talks 197 00:11:28,200 --> 00:11:33,360 Speaker 3: or the effort to create piece as it were, between 198 00:11:33,360 --> 00:11:36,440 Speaker 3: the Israelis and the Palestinians and to resolve the situation 199 00:11:36,559 --> 00:11:37,079 Speaker 3: in Gaza. 200 00:11:37,320 --> 00:11:40,720 Speaker 2: And with respect to Hamas, you've been outspoken about the 201 00:11:40,760 --> 00:11:43,880 Speaker 2: pro Palestinian protests back in the United States. They've royal 202 00:11:44,000 --> 00:11:48,760 Speaker 2: university campuses. You've been particularly critical of your alma mater Harvard. 203 00:11:49,320 --> 00:11:51,640 Speaker 2: Here's my question to you. When people here in the 204 00:11:51,679 --> 00:11:55,400 Speaker 2: Gulf region and across the globe for that matter, see 205 00:11:55,440 --> 00:12:00,800 Speaker 2: the chaos at Harvard or Columbia or USC or MIT 206 00:12:01,120 --> 00:12:05,880 Speaker 2: and police and combat gear moving to clear accountments, how do. 207 00:12:05,840 --> 00:12:09,240 Speaker 1: You think that shapes their view of America? Not well? 208 00:12:10,640 --> 00:12:14,079 Speaker 1: Not well? And what is lost is that what's happening 209 00:12:14,120 --> 00:12:18,120 Speaker 1: on campus is not is not free speech. It's anarchy. 210 00:12:18,679 --> 00:12:21,360 Speaker 3: You know, in Columbia, when they storm a building, they 211 00:12:21,480 --> 00:12:26,280 Speaker 3: vandalize a building, they're destroying property, and then they ask 212 00:12:26,360 --> 00:12:28,720 Speaker 3: for humanitarian aid, which is the greatest of all ironies. 213 00:12:29,240 --> 00:12:33,200 Speaker 3: It's just the wrong It is the wrong dynamic that 214 00:12:33,240 --> 00:12:36,559 Speaker 3: we're seeing take place in American campuses. These are students. 215 00:12:36,720 --> 00:12:38,760 Speaker 3: Most of these students on campuses are trying to learn. 216 00:12:39,120 --> 00:12:42,600 Speaker 3: They're trying to have an education, and the university should 217 00:12:42,600 --> 00:12:47,440 Speaker 3: be really trying to encourage a constructive debate between the 218 00:12:47,480 --> 00:12:50,360 Speaker 3: students of different backgrounds, whether they're from the Middle East, 219 00:12:50,800 --> 00:12:54,480 Speaker 3: whether they're of Jewish origin. It's really important that the 220 00:12:54,600 --> 00:12:57,280 Speaker 3: generation that will be the generation that runs the world 221 00:12:57,320 --> 00:13:01,560 Speaker 3: in forty years I still learn from this horrible moment 222 00:13:01,600 --> 00:13:05,439 Speaker 3: in history, and we're not fostering that environment on campuses today, 223 00:13:05,480 --> 00:13:09,760 Speaker 3: and it's really it's a huge, huge disappointment that so 224 00:13:09,880 --> 00:13:12,800 Speaker 3: much what we see on campus. You've seen the video 225 00:13:12,800 --> 00:13:14,840 Speaker 3: footage of the kids interviewed, Why are you here? What 226 00:13:14,840 --> 00:13:18,080 Speaker 3: are you protesting about? Often they can't even answer basic 227 00:13:18,160 --> 00:13:21,680 Speaker 3: questions about what's happening in the region and why it's 228 00:13:21,720 --> 00:13:22,400 Speaker 3: taking place? 229 00:13:23,600 --> 00:13:24,360 Speaker 1: Can people here? 230 00:13:24,400 --> 00:13:27,079 Speaker 2: And I suspect those watching us around the world are 231 00:13:27,120 --> 00:13:32,160 Speaker 2: eager for your insights into what might happen during and 232 00:13:32,280 --> 00:13:33,800 Speaker 2: after the US election. 233 00:13:34,640 --> 00:13:35,679 Speaker 1: How might US. 234 00:13:35,600 --> 00:13:39,440 Speaker 2: Foreign policy and defense policy change if Donald Trump were 235 00:13:39,480 --> 00:13:40,600 Speaker 2: to return to the White House. 236 00:13:42,840 --> 00:13:45,920 Speaker 3: So if President Trump returns to the White House, I 237 00:13:45,960 --> 00:13:48,680 Speaker 3: think you'll see a global perception of a stronger America. 238 00:13:50,440 --> 00:13:50,640 Speaker 1: Now. 239 00:13:50,760 --> 00:13:56,200 Speaker 3: The Biden administration's form policies, the actual policies are generally 240 00:13:56,240 --> 00:14:03,920 Speaker 3: speaking thoughtful, but to be blunt, America does not exude 241 00:14:03,960 --> 00:14:07,720 Speaker 3: credibility or strength in its actions around the world today. 242 00:14:08,320 --> 00:14:12,400 Speaker 3: That our positioning does not match the thoughtfulness of our policies. 243 00:14:12,760 --> 00:14:15,880 Speaker 3: That's a very difficult place to be in a world 244 00:14:15,920 --> 00:14:19,560 Speaker 3: which has the geopolitical cross currents that we spoke about earlier. 245 00:14:19,960 --> 00:14:22,680 Speaker 3: And it means that those who are willing to push 246 00:14:23,080 --> 00:14:26,080 Speaker 3: to see how far you can push America are willing 247 00:14:26,120 --> 00:14:28,440 Speaker 3: to push harder than we want. 248 00:14:28,280 --> 00:14:29,040 Speaker 1: To see happening. 249 00:14:29,680 --> 00:14:32,960 Speaker 3: And I think that anybody who knows President Trump knows 250 00:14:33,200 --> 00:14:35,440 Speaker 3: that is not somebody you just pushed to see what's 251 00:14:35,480 --> 00:14:38,840 Speaker 3: going to happen. That's the wrong strategy with President Trump. 252 00:14:39,520 --> 00:14:43,080 Speaker 3: And so I believe that President Trump will have very 253 00:14:43,120 --> 00:14:46,440 Speaker 3: good people in foreign policy and in the Department of Defense. 254 00:14:46,880 --> 00:14:50,640 Speaker 3: But I think he will exude a level of strength 255 00:14:51,080 --> 00:14:53,480 Speaker 3: that will help to stabilize the world in this very, 256 00:14:53,680 --> 00:14:54,760 Speaker 3: very trying times. 257 00:14:55,200 --> 00:14:59,760 Speaker 2: There has been flagging support for aid to Ukraine. The 258 00:15:00,080 --> 00:15:02,320 Speaker 2: publican party with Donald Trump abandoned Ukraine. 259 00:15:02,680 --> 00:15:07,200 Speaker 1: No, he will not. You're certain of that. Well, this 260 00:15:07,280 --> 00:15:08,520 Speaker 1: goes back to my earlier statement. 261 00:15:08,560 --> 00:15:12,720 Speaker 3: You could never be certain about President Trump, and that's 262 00:15:12,800 --> 00:15:15,240 Speaker 3: part of the reason that he is more intimidating to 263 00:15:15,320 --> 00:15:18,520 Speaker 3: our adversaries. You never know exactly what the response is 264 00:15:18,560 --> 00:15:21,200 Speaker 3: going to be. But knowing a number of people that 265 00:15:21,240 --> 00:15:24,040 Speaker 3: he's close to, and having actually brought this topic up, 266 00:15:24,920 --> 00:15:27,200 Speaker 3: I think that President Trump feels he can find an 267 00:15:27,240 --> 00:15:31,360 Speaker 3: off ramp towards peace by reaching across to Putin and 268 00:15:31,480 --> 00:15:36,600 Speaker 3: to the Ukrainian leadership. I believe he knows it's important 269 00:15:36,600 --> 00:15:39,840 Speaker 3: to American interests, that we do not abandon the Ukrainian 270 00:15:39,840 --> 00:15:42,920 Speaker 3: people at this very difficult moment, and that we keep 271 00:15:43,040 --> 00:15:50,080 Speaker 3: Russian's territorial ambitions in check, and a strong pushback against 272 00:15:50,160 --> 00:15:52,680 Speaker 3: Putin will be part of the equation if need be, 273 00:15:53,400 --> 00:15:55,120 Speaker 3: to secure the peace in the Ukraine. 274 00:15:56,160 --> 00:16:00,240 Speaker 1: What do you think he'll do with economic policy. It's 275 00:16:00,240 --> 00:16:01,440 Speaker 1: difficult to know. 276 00:16:02,680 --> 00:16:06,840 Speaker 3: So neither administration gives me comfort in terms of a 277 00:16:06,880 --> 00:16:11,880 Speaker 3: willingness to reduce federal spending. But I have no doubt 278 00:16:12,800 --> 00:16:18,080 Speaker 3: that a Trump administration would be far less oriented towards 279 00:16:18,400 --> 00:16:24,880 Speaker 3: regulatory overreach and far more thoughtful about the role of 280 00:16:24,960 --> 00:16:28,359 Speaker 3: the US government in the day to day US economy. 281 00:16:28,920 --> 00:16:31,320 Speaker 3: One of the reasons that American voters are so unhappy 282 00:16:31,360 --> 00:16:34,880 Speaker 3: right now is inflation is out of control, and inflation 283 00:16:35,040 --> 00:16:38,200 Speaker 3: is out of control because of the expanse of government 284 00:16:38,240 --> 00:16:41,560 Speaker 3: under the biod administration, the rate of spending, and the 285 00:16:41,600 --> 00:16:45,600 Speaker 3: degree of intervention in the economy. It's causing energy prices 286 00:16:45,640 --> 00:16:48,760 Speaker 3: to be higher, It's causing the cost of manufacturing to 287 00:16:48,800 --> 00:16:52,120 Speaker 3: be higher. It's impacting every part of the economy in 288 00:16:52,160 --> 00:16:55,400 Speaker 3: a way that the American voter is frustrated about. President 289 00:16:55,440 --> 00:16:59,440 Speaker 3: Biden doesn't understand you need to break the back of 290 00:16:59,480 --> 00:17:05,200 Speaker 3: inflation to give people the sense of economic security. 291 00:17:06,080 --> 00:17:12,399 Speaker 2: We have talked in the past about America's tendency should 292 00:17:12,400 --> 00:17:14,720 Speaker 2: we say to spend more money than it generates in 293 00:17:14,760 --> 00:17:20,920 Speaker 2: text revenue? And you have warned ken of some catastrophic 294 00:17:20,960 --> 00:17:25,960 Speaker 2: consequences if deficit spending isn't brought under control. What is 295 00:17:26,000 --> 00:17:29,199 Speaker 2: the catalyst for an American debt crisis going to be? 296 00:17:30,119 --> 00:17:32,960 Speaker 3: So I don't know what that moment will be when 297 00:17:33,000 --> 00:17:36,360 Speaker 3: there's an auction that goes awry, or when the markets 298 00:17:36,359 --> 00:17:41,880 Speaker 3: become dislocated. Financial markets, generally speaking, work very well until 299 00:17:41,920 --> 00:17:45,159 Speaker 3: they catastrophically come off the rails. You don't necessarily get 300 00:17:45,200 --> 00:17:46,800 Speaker 3: a lot of warning that there's about to be a 301 00:17:46,840 --> 00:17:49,240 Speaker 3: big event. The crash of eighty seven is a great 302 00:17:49,280 --> 00:17:53,200 Speaker 3: case study. You know, that day I woke up, I 303 00:17:53,520 --> 00:17:57,800 Speaker 3: was in my dorm room trading then, and the stories 304 00:17:57,880 --> 00:17:59,920 Speaker 3: on the of the day were about a small scream 305 00:18:00,040 --> 00:18:03,320 Speaker 3: to the Middle East of frankly no consequence, and the 306 00:18:03,320 --> 00:18:08,919 Speaker 3: health of First Lady Nancy Reagan. And yet we an 307 00:18:09,080 --> 00:18:11,040 Speaker 3: end of that day with the stock market down twenty 308 00:18:11,280 --> 00:18:15,600 Speaker 3: percent and a number of American institutions literally on life support, 309 00:18:15,680 --> 00:18:20,400 Speaker 3: and your death happened in one day, one day. There 310 00:18:20,480 --> 00:18:24,040 Speaker 3: was no big story that morning that would make you 311 00:18:24,040 --> 00:18:25,639 Speaker 3: think that that day might have been the end of 312 00:18:25,640 --> 00:18:26,119 Speaker 3: the US. 313 00:18:26,040 --> 00:18:27,360 Speaker 1: Capital markets as we knew them. 314 00:18:27,720 --> 00:18:30,119 Speaker 3: There was no warning, And so I worry that the 315 00:18:30,119 --> 00:18:33,320 Speaker 3: debt crisis may have a similar construct, that they'll simply 316 00:18:33,359 --> 00:18:38,040 Speaker 3: be a day where a major auction fails and then 317 00:18:38,080 --> 00:18:42,080 Speaker 3: you see a panic start to brew in the treasury market, 318 00:18:42,720 --> 00:18:44,600 Speaker 3: and the question will be will be how fast will 319 00:18:44,640 --> 00:18:45,480 Speaker 3: the Fed intervene? 320 00:18:46,440 --> 00:18:47,959 Speaker 1: What panic will that induce? 321 00:18:48,040 --> 00:18:52,080 Speaker 3: Because government intervention under duress often just creates more panic. 322 00:18:52,880 --> 00:18:56,080 Speaker 1: And then do we see a flood of treasures. 323 00:18:55,680 --> 00:18:59,520 Speaker 3: Coming back into the market from holders around the world's 324 00:18:59,640 --> 00:19:04,119 Speaker 3: frightening respect, it is back to politics for a moment. 325 00:19:04,480 --> 00:19:07,000 Speaker 1: You've been a prominent donor. 326 00:19:07,160 --> 00:19:10,239 Speaker 2: I would say to Republican candidates, I'd like to know 327 00:19:10,320 --> 00:19:12,320 Speaker 2: how are you going to spend your money? How are 328 00:19:12,359 --> 00:19:15,920 Speaker 2: you already spending your money ahead of the election in November. 329 00:19:16,600 --> 00:19:21,600 Speaker 3: So I have been a significant supporter of Republicans that 330 00:19:21,640 --> 00:19:27,919 Speaker 3: stand for personal freedom, national security, and economic soundness. 331 00:19:27,520 --> 00:19:28,280 Speaker 1: The United States. 332 00:19:28,480 --> 00:19:30,679 Speaker 3: That has been a big focus of mine in this 333 00:19:30,720 --> 00:19:34,320 Speaker 3: primary election or this primary cycle. I want to see 334 00:19:34,359 --> 00:19:38,160 Speaker 3: people in the House and in the Senate that represent 335 00:19:38,400 --> 00:19:42,639 Speaker 3: the best of American values and backgrounds. 336 00:19:42,000 --> 00:19:44,320 Speaker 1: That prepare one to serve in public service. 337 00:19:44,800 --> 00:19:46,960 Speaker 3: In the last election cycle, I supported a number of 338 00:19:46,960 --> 00:19:50,320 Speaker 3: people who were veterans just and who are now serving 339 00:19:50,359 --> 00:19:52,800 Speaker 3: our country in the House, and they do it with 340 00:19:52,880 --> 00:19:55,919 Speaker 3: the pride that our country deserves, and they do it 341 00:19:55,920 --> 00:19:58,400 Speaker 3: with the integrity that our country needs. So I've been 342 00:19:58,520 --> 00:20:01,199 Speaker 3: very focused on finding candidate who I think represent the 343 00:20:01,200 --> 00:20:04,080 Speaker 3: best of American values to be part of. 344 00:20:04,040 --> 00:20:05,520 Speaker 1: The future of the Republican Party. 345 00:20:05,920 --> 00:20:10,320 Speaker 2: People probably want to know, have you donated to Donald 346 00:20:10,320 --> 00:20:13,800 Speaker 2: Trump's campaign, either directly or indirectly to a pack or 347 00:20:13,840 --> 00:20:14,440 Speaker 2: a super pack? 348 00:20:14,920 --> 00:20:17,879 Speaker 1: I have not, will you? I'm going to wait to 349 00:20:17,880 --> 00:20:21,639 Speaker 1: see what he picks his VP candidate. Is there anyone 350 00:20:21,680 --> 00:20:23,880 Speaker 1: whom you'd like to see him pick as his VP candidate? 351 00:20:24,000 --> 00:20:26,800 Speaker 1: I know I don't. This is again like poking the bear. 352 00:20:27,560 --> 00:20:30,240 Speaker 3: Not sure which way my recommendation goes in terms of 353 00:20:30,280 --> 00:20:31,840 Speaker 3: helping that person's prospects. 354 00:20:32,960 --> 00:20:39,080 Speaker 2: I think that's wise position to take. Before we finish 355 00:20:39,200 --> 00:20:43,800 Speaker 2: ken This region is blessed with resource wealth and as 356 00:20:43,840 --> 00:20:47,800 Speaker 2: a result, sovereign wealth, so much so that pretty much 357 00:20:47,840 --> 00:20:50,760 Speaker 2: every major asset manager in the West sees the Gulf 358 00:20:51,480 --> 00:20:53,560 Speaker 2: as something of a honeypot and is trying to raise 359 00:20:53,600 --> 00:20:56,960 Speaker 2: money here. As someone who isn't raising money here, how 360 00:20:56,960 --> 00:21:00,000 Speaker 2: would you advise the sovereign wealth funds in the Gulf 361 00:21:00,160 --> 00:21:06,080 Speaker 2: region to maximize their negotiating leverage. 362 00:21:07,200 --> 00:21:10,840 Speaker 3: So either I'm going to be excommunicated from the circle 363 00:21:10,880 --> 00:21:14,199 Speaker 3: of my fellow money managers or never invited to come 364 00:21:14,200 --> 00:21:15,360 Speaker 3: back to the Middle East again? 365 00:21:15,440 --> 00:21:17,000 Speaker 1: Is that? Is that the position E're putting me in? 366 00:21:18,240 --> 00:21:21,280 Speaker 3: So look, here's what I think is important to think about. 367 00:21:22,119 --> 00:21:25,720 Speaker 3: I think alignment between the interests of the money manager 368 00:21:26,760 --> 00:21:30,159 Speaker 3: and the sopoire well fund are very important. And I 369 00:21:30,160 --> 00:21:32,800 Speaker 3: think it's more important to have your money and trusted 370 00:21:32,840 --> 00:21:36,199 Speaker 3: with the firm that is going to act continuously in 371 00:21:36,240 --> 00:21:38,959 Speaker 3: your best interest as an investor than it is to 372 00:21:39,000 --> 00:21:43,160 Speaker 3: try to pick somebody who simply has the lowest fees 373 00:21:43,560 --> 00:21:50,560 Speaker 3: or some other superficial demarcation of being open and transparent. 374 00:21:51,160 --> 00:21:53,679 Speaker 3: I mean, let's be clear, your money managers who have 375 00:21:53,880 --> 00:21:58,240 Speaker 3: really important intellectual property aren't going to be unduly transparent. 376 00:21:58,600 --> 00:22:01,880 Speaker 3: They're trying to protect their very intellectual property that they'll 377 00:22:01,880 --> 00:22:07,680 Speaker 3: share the benefits with you of with the client. Simply put, 378 00:22:07,720 --> 00:22:12,000 Speaker 3: Coca Cola doesn't publish its recipe on the web. So 379 00:22:12,160 --> 00:22:15,400 Speaker 3: I think it's very important when you find a money manager, 380 00:22:15,600 --> 00:22:20,120 Speaker 3: you're really asking what's their competitive advantage, what's their culture? 381 00:22:20,720 --> 00:22:22,000 Speaker 1: How aligned are. 382 00:22:21,800 --> 00:22:24,800 Speaker 3: They with me and in both in the good moments 383 00:22:24,880 --> 00:22:25,880 Speaker 3: and the bad moments. 384 00:22:26,119 --> 00:22:28,239 Speaker 1: Are they going to put themselves. 385 00:22:27,680 --> 00:22:30,640 Speaker 3: In the shoes of their clients and make the right 386 00:22:30,680 --> 00:22:32,080 Speaker 3: decision by their clients. 387 00:22:32,920 --> 00:22:36,280 Speaker 1: It's citing. I take great pride that almost over. 388 00:22:36,119 --> 00:22:38,639 Speaker 3: Twenty percent of the capital in our hedge funds is 389 00:22:38,680 --> 00:22:41,800 Speaker 3: the capital the partners and the team members at Citadel. 390 00:22:42,119 --> 00:22:48,000 Speaker 3: We wake up every single day as co investors with 391 00:22:48,119 --> 00:22:51,919 Speaker 3: our capital providers, and I think that symbolizes what I 392 00:22:51,920 --> 00:22:55,040 Speaker 3: would think about looking for if I were a member 393 00:22:55,080 --> 00:22:57,040 Speaker 3: of the soccern wealth community here in the Middle East. 394 00:22:57,720 --> 00:23:04,560 Speaker 2: One last thing among the men, any distinctive qualities that citadels. 395 00:23:04,960 --> 00:23:07,920 Speaker 3: Just by the way, when you're going to pick a 396 00:23:07,960 --> 00:23:10,000 Speaker 3: brain search, did you find the doctor. 397 00:23:09,680 --> 00:23:13,720 Speaker 1: With the lowest feet? That's not what I would do. 398 00:23:13,800 --> 00:23:16,679 Speaker 3: No, Right, So you want to find somebody who actually 399 00:23:16,720 --> 00:23:20,639 Speaker 3: has pricing power because other people perceive them to be good, 400 00:23:21,119 --> 00:23:21,720 Speaker 3: it says something. 401 00:23:21,800 --> 00:23:23,359 Speaker 1: Yet there's something to be said for that. 402 00:23:24,760 --> 00:23:26,479 Speaker 2: I was just going to say, because I think it 403 00:23:26,520 --> 00:23:29,439 Speaker 2: would certainly interest people in this room and elsewhere in 404 00:23:29,480 --> 00:23:31,679 Speaker 2: this part of the world. One of the things that 405 00:23:31,720 --> 00:23:34,119 Speaker 2: Citadel is known for is how seriously you and your 406 00:23:34,160 --> 00:23:38,600 Speaker 2: colleagues take the search for extraordinary talent. A number of 407 00:23:38,920 --> 00:23:41,640 Speaker 2: investment firms have opened offices in this part of the world, 408 00:23:41,680 --> 00:23:44,560 Speaker 2: whether it's in Doha, whether it's in Abu Dhabi, Dubai 409 00:23:44,680 --> 00:23:45,760 Speaker 2: for example, or Riad. 410 00:23:46,080 --> 00:23:47,480 Speaker 1: Have you thought about expanding here? 411 00:23:48,000 --> 00:23:50,680 Speaker 3: Well, we actually just recently did an analysis of our 412 00:23:50,680 --> 00:23:54,360 Speaker 3: competitor's footprints in a number of these cities as we 413 00:23:54,440 --> 00:23:57,000 Speaker 3: try to think about what is our strategy here in 414 00:23:57,040 --> 00:23:57,639 Speaker 3: the Middle. 415 00:23:57,359 --> 00:24:01,920 Speaker 1: East, and you landed on the right issue. It's about talent. 416 00:24:02,800 --> 00:24:04,880 Speaker 3: And when we think about our Middle East strategy, we're 417 00:24:04,880 --> 00:24:06,920 Speaker 3: going to think about where are we going to draw 418 00:24:07,320 --> 00:24:11,080 Speaker 3: the greatest amount of talent, both from the domestic country 419 00:24:11,560 --> 00:24:16,639 Speaker 3: and from the international community. Too often countries try to 420 00:24:16,680 --> 00:24:21,679 Speaker 3: attract talent by having very attractive tax attributes. That tends 421 00:24:21,680 --> 00:24:25,600 Speaker 3: to draw in a handful of senior pms, but doesn't 422 00:24:25,720 --> 00:24:28,639 Speaker 3: draw in the analysts and the associates who do the 423 00:24:28,720 --> 00:24:31,879 Speaker 3: day to day work that's required to be successful in 424 00:24:31,920 --> 00:24:34,399 Speaker 3: the markets. One of the reasons that I think CDELL 425 00:24:34,440 --> 00:24:38,000 Speaker 3: has been so successful is the intense collaboration that we 426 00:24:38,080 --> 00:24:41,520 Speaker 3: have within our four walls. A PM working side by 427 00:24:41,600 --> 00:24:45,200 Speaker 3: side with an analyst, with an associate working through a problem, 428 00:24:46,000 --> 00:24:50,000 Speaker 3: Having a PM located in a low tax jurisdiction on 429 00:24:50,200 --> 00:24:54,119 Speaker 3: Zoom intermittently with a team back in London. That's not 430 00:24:54,160 --> 00:24:56,920 Speaker 3: a winning formula. So when we think about where we're 431 00:24:56,960 --> 00:24:58,520 Speaker 3: going to be in the Middle East in terms of 432 00:24:58,560 --> 00:25:01,359 Speaker 3: our footprint for human cap it's going to be about 433 00:25:01,400 --> 00:25:04,800 Speaker 3: a holistic solution where we've got people who are in 434 00:25:04,920 --> 00:25:08,720 Speaker 3: the region, integrated tightly with pms who are here. 435 00:25:08,880 --> 00:25:12,520 Speaker 1: The whole team is here and successful as a team. 436 00:25:12,800 --> 00:25:14,719 Speaker 1: It explains a lot. Ken, thank you very much. 437 00:25:14,800 --> 00:25:17,640 Speaker 2: Ladies and gentlemen, please join me in thanking Ken Griffin, 438 00:25:18,920 --> 00:25:19,240 Speaker 2: thank you.