1 00:00:03,680 --> 00:00:06,800 Speaker 1: Welcome back to a numbers game with Ryan Gurduski. Happy Monday, folks. 2 00:00:06,840 --> 00:00:09,720 Speaker 1: Hope you had a great weekend. I know Thursday's episode 3 00:00:10,360 --> 00:00:12,600 Speaker 1: was a bit of a Debbie downer for a lot 4 00:00:12,600 --> 00:00:15,320 Speaker 1: of conservatives. I didn't have a lot of great polling information, 5 00:00:15,960 --> 00:00:18,840 Speaker 1: but I kind of do today, and I have an 6 00:00:18,840 --> 00:00:22,239 Speaker 1: interesting story that is good for everybody. It's not just 7 00:00:22,280 --> 00:00:24,840 Speaker 1: good for conservatives, it's good for literally everybody who lives 8 00:00:24,840 --> 00:00:28,200 Speaker 1: in America. So on the polling, two polls have come out, 9 00:00:28,240 --> 00:00:30,680 Speaker 1: one in California and one in New York, asking if 10 00:00:30,720 --> 00:00:35,320 Speaker 1: voters in those states support a mid decade redistricting and 11 00:00:35,440 --> 00:00:40,160 Speaker 1: partisan jerrymandering. You may remember Kathy Hogel and Gavin Newsom 12 00:00:40,280 --> 00:00:45,400 Speaker 1: in response to the efforts by Governor Greg Abbott to 13 00:00:45,560 --> 00:00:50,240 Speaker 1: redistrict the state and give Republicans more seats, they threatened 14 00:00:50,240 --> 00:00:53,200 Speaker 1: to do the same in their respective states. But they 15 00:00:53,240 --> 00:00:55,960 Speaker 1: do not have the same power in either New York 16 00:00:56,080 --> 00:01:02,360 Speaker 1: or California because those states have independent redistricting. The polls 17 00:01:02,400 --> 00:01:05,039 Speaker 1: that had come out asked voters in those states whether 18 00:01:05,280 --> 00:01:10,399 Speaker 1: or not they would support changes to the constitution because 19 00:01:10,440 --> 00:01:13,720 Speaker 1: both those dates forbid mid decade redistricting and for a 20 00:01:13,760 --> 00:01:17,880 Speaker 1: bid partisan jerrymandering. You have to go through independent commissions 21 00:01:17,880 --> 00:01:20,000 Speaker 1: and it is in the state constitution, so you would 22 00:01:20,000 --> 00:01:23,479 Speaker 1: need a rev You need the voters to participate in 23 00:01:23,520 --> 00:01:26,200 Speaker 1: the process to change the laws. It can't just be 24 00:01:26,600 --> 00:01:29,920 Speaker 1: Gavin Newsom and Kathy Hogel on their own core, on 25 00:01:29,959 --> 00:01:33,160 Speaker 1: their own women. So a poll from the University of 26 00:01:33,200 --> 00:01:37,840 Speaker 1: Berkeley found that only thirty six percent of Californians supported 27 00:01:37,880 --> 00:01:42,479 Speaker 1: Newsom's plan, in sixty four percent opposed. Making things worse 28 00:01:42,520 --> 00:01:47,560 Speaker 1: for Newsom is that not a single demographic latinocrats and 29 00:01:47,640 --> 00:01:50,760 Speaker 1: then it's women. No one supported the idea. Now, not 30 00:01:50,800 --> 00:01:53,960 Speaker 1: a majority of anyone rather supported the idea. It was 31 00:01:54,320 --> 00:02:00,120 Speaker 1: majority posts by every single constituency. Now that pole did 32 00:02:00,120 --> 00:02:01,800 Speaker 1: not allow for people to be undecided. You had to 33 00:02:01,800 --> 00:02:03,640 Speaker 1: decide whether you were supportive. 34 00:02:03,240 --> 00:02:03,840 Speaker 2: Or against it. 35 00:02:04,120 --> 00:02:06,720 Speaker 1: Another poll came out in New York that did allow 36 00:02:06,760 --> 00:02:09,160 Speaker 1: people to say they were undecided. It was from Siena 37 00:02:09,240 --> 00:02:12,040 Speaker 1: College and it asked New Yorkers the same question, do 38 00:02:12,080 --> 00:02:16,880 Speaker 1: you support this mid decade redistricting that's partisan jerrymandering. Thirty 39 00:02:16,919 --> 00:02:20,280 Speaker 1: five percent of New Yorkers said they supported it, thirty 40 00:02:20,320 --> 00:02:22,840 Speaker 1: four percent so they opposed it, and thirty two percent 41 00:02:22,880 --> 00:02:26,360 Speaker 1: were not sure, so it's virtually the same. Only about 42 00:02:26,400 --> 00:02:29,440 Speaker 1: a third of voters in both New York and California 43 00:02:29,760 --> 00:02:33,480 Speaker 1: say they support this redistricting efforts. In New York, there 44 00:02:33,639 --> 00:02:37,680 Speaker 1: was an actual outright plurality or majority in certain demographics 45 00:02:37,680 --> 00:02:40,200 Speaker 1: that supported it. The Democrats supported it, people lived in 46 00:02:40,200 --> 00:02:43,239 Speaker 1: New York City supported je support it in young people. 47 00:02:44,480 --> 00:02:48,120 Speaker 1: But that a majority does not make right. It is 48 00:02:48,160 --> 00:02:50,839 Speaker 1: the plurality by one point, but you would need over 49 00:02:50,880 --> 00:02:54,000 Speaker 1: fifty percent. And there was an election just three years 50 00:02:54,000 --> 00:02:56,359 Speaker 1: ago asking the same question. New Yorkers and New Yorker 51 00:02:56,400 --> 00:03:00,560 Speaker 1: said no, we don't want partisan jerrymandering. So there you go, 52 00:03:00,639 --> 00:03:03,880 Speaker 1: after weeks of liberals lighting their hair and fire and 53 00:03:03,919 --> 00:03:07,000 Speaker 1: stomping their feet and saying we're gonna oppose, you know, 54 00:03:07,160 --> 00:03:11,920 Speaker 1: govern apports efforts by jerrymandering New York and California, voters 55 00:03:11,919 --> 00:03:15,359 Speaker 1: in those states, in those overwhelmingly democratic states, sat there 56 00:03:15,360 --> 00:03:20,040 Speaker 1: and said no, because voters overall. I bet you, even 57 00:03:20,080 --> 00:03:22,359 Speaker 1: in Texas, that there was a vote for an independent commission, 58 00:03:22,639 --> 00:03:25,240 Speaker 1: they would probably pass independent commission. The idea of an 59 00:03:25,240 --> 00:03:29,280 Speaker 1: independent commission, whether or not it's truly independent, is overwhelmingly 60 00:03:29,560 --> 00:03:33,680 Speaker 1: supported by voters, so that's important. I actually also, by 61 00:03:33,720 --> 00:03:35,240 Speaker 1: the way I thought of this, I was thinking of 62 00:03:35,560 --> 00:03:38,120 Speaker 1: Kathy Hockel and Gavin Newsom and who they are as people, 63 00:03:38,760 --> 00:03:41,800 Speaker 1: and I have an alternative view to what I think 64 00:03:41,880 --> 00:03:45,560 Speaker 1: most people believe. I actually think Kathy Hochel and maybe 65 00:03:45,560 --> 00:03:48,800 Speaker 1: because I live in New York and I have been 66 00:03:48,840 --> 00:03:51,120 Speaker 1: there my whole life and I'm a New Yorker through 67 00:03:51,160 --> 00:03:55,400 Speaker 1: and through, I have a different affiliation to it. In California, 68 00:03:55,840 --> 00:03:58,880 Speaker 1: I think Kathy Hockel cares less about the letter of 69 00:03:58,920 --> 00:04:01,880 Speaker 1: the law the will of voters than Gavin Newsom does. 70 00:04:02,240 --> 00:04:06,040 Speaker 1: Because new someonelike Hokeel is running for president, right Hokeel. 71 00:04:06,040 --> 00:04:08,640 Speaker 1: If Hokeel is running for president, you know, if she's 72 00:04:08,680 --> 00:04:11,800 Speaker 1: the Democratic nominee, good luck. She sounds like she's deaf 73 00:04:11,800 --> 00:04:16,000 Speaker 1: and she acts like she's crazy. But if she, if she, 74 00:04:16,360 --> 00:04:19,400 Speaker 1: if he is running for president. I think what Newsom 75 00:04:19,560 --> 00:04:23,320 Speaker 1: is doing right now is something that I call chasing 76 00:04:23,360 --> 00:04:26,119 Speaker 1: the Internet. It's something that Tim Waltz did. Tim Waltz, 77 00:04:26,120 --> 00:04:29,080 Speaker 1: when he was a congressman, was a very moderate member 78 00:04:29,120 --> 00:04:32,760 Speaker 1: of Congress from Minnesota. He becomes governor and he moves 79 00:04:32,880 --> 00:04:36,680 Speaker 1: the far left and he chases these outlandish, stupid ideas 80 00:04:36,720 --> 00:04:39,320 Speaker 1: from the far left that you see on Twitter, because 81 00:04:39,360 --> 00:04:42,039 Speaker 1: that's really who governs a lot of the thought process 82 00:04:42,080 --> 00:04:43,960 Speaker 1: of staff. They sit there and say, oh, this is 83 00:04:43,960 --> 00:04:46,280 Speaker 1: what people really want. I'm going to follow it, and 84 00:04:46,320 --> 00:04:49,119 Speaker 1: they follow the Internet, and it leads you to being called, 85 00:04:49,279 --> 00:04:52,280 Speaker 1: you know, tampon tim It leads you to being thought 86 00:04:52,320 --> 00:04:55,240 Speaker 1: of as being not normal and that you are a 87 00:04:55,240 --> 00:04:57,120 Speaker 1: little bit out there and a little bit crazy. It 88 00:04:57,160 --> 00:04:59,480 Speaker 1: doesn't work out of people's favor. You never want to 89 00:04:59,600 --> 00:05:02,719 Speaker 1: chase the internet. Never chase Twitter if you're an elected official, 90 00:05:03,040 --> 00:05:06,400 Speaker 1: because Twitter is not real. It's a good sounding board, 91 00:05:06,640 --> 00:05:09,560 Speaker 1: but there's a lot of crazy and it does not 92 00:05:09,760 --> 00:05:14,680 Speaker 1: make up the majority where people actually are. So pulling aside, 93 00:05:14,880 --> 00:05:17,560 Speaker 1: there is a news story this week that I think 94 00:05:18,640 --> 00:05:22,560 Speaker 1: has important data and is an overall positive development in 95 00:05:22,600 --> 00:05:27,799 Speaker 1: our country. Edward Christine, who otherwise is known as Big Balls. 96 00:05:28,160 --> 00:05:30,520 Speaker 1: He was the nineteen He is the nineteen year old 97 00:05:30,640 --> 00:05:34,880 Speaker 1: DOGE staffer. He was attacked by a couple of black 98 00:05:34,920 --> 00:05:38,039 Speaker 1: teenagers in Washington, c while protecting a woman who I 99 00:05:38,040 --> 00:05:40,280 Speaker 1: believe was his girlfriend. They kind of said of significant 100 00:05:40,320 --> 00:05:43,000 Speaker 1: significant other in some reports, but while he was protecting 101 00:05:43,040 --> 00:05:46,599 Speaker 1: her he was attacked by some black teenagers and very 102 00:05:46,640 --> 00:05:48,880 Speaker 1: badly beat him. A total side note, by the way, 103 00:05:49,080 --> 00:05:51,120 Speaker 1: nothing to do with this overall story, but side note, 104 00:05:51,440 --> 00:05:56,719 Speaker 1: Big Balls comes from a very famous family. The liberals 105 00:05:56,760 --> 00:05:58,839 Speaker 1: lost their mind that this nineteen year old was trying 106 00:05:58,880 --> 00:06:01,080 Speaker 1: to slash the size government. So one day I was 107 00:06:01,440 --> 00:06:04,960 Speaker 1: up late at night, wasting time I should have been sleeping, 108 00:06:05,080 --> 00:06:08,560 Speaker 1: you know, looking up stuff on Wikipedia, either late at night, 109 00:06:08,600 --> 00:06:11,880 Speaker 1: if things are really really I'm truly suffering with sleeping, 110 00:06:11,920 --> 00:06:14,560 Speaker 1: which is a lot of times. I'm either on Wikipedia 111 00:06:15,000 --> 00:06:19,560 Speaker 1: looking up random music discographies of who produced what music 112 00:06:19,600 --> 00:06:23,240 Speaker 1: when like a complete knutbag, or I'm watching twenty twenty 113 00:06:23,240 --> 00:06:27,440 Speaker 1: four election reaction videos and playing Pimball on my computer. 114 00:06:27,760 --> 00:06:29,960 Speaker 1: But anyway, I was looking at big Balls one day 115 00:06:29,960 --> 00:06:32,640 Speaker 1: for whatever reason. And he is the grandson of a 116 00:06:32,680 --> 00:06:36,359 Speaker 1: man named Valerie Martinov I think I'm pronouncing that name correctly, 117 00:06:36,920 --> 00:06:40,919 Speaker 1: who was a Soviet spy that became a double agent, 118 00:06:41,000 --> 00:06:44,039 Speaker 1: inspied on behalf of the United States and was executed 119 00:06:44,080 --> 00:06:48,880 Speaker 1: in Moscow. How randomly cool of a lineage is that, 120 00:06:49,000 --> 00:06:52,679 Speaker 1: I mean, Big Balls is definitely in the genetics anyway. 121 00:06:53,440 --> 00:06:55,799 Speaker 1: So Big Balls was attacked by black teenagers, and President 122 00:06:55,800 --> 00:06:59,160 Speaker 1: Trump deputized federal officers to patrol the city of Washington, 123 00:06:59,240 --> 00:07:02,080 Speaker 1: DC and have this crackdown on crime. Now, I have 124 00:07:02,080 --> 00:07:04,040 Speaker 1: to say, I've never lived in DC, but I've been 125 00:07:04,080 --> 00:07:06,039 Speaker 1: there more times than I can count, and it is 126 00:07:06,080 --> 00:07:10,440 Speaker 1: a garbage jump. It is genuinely for our nation's capital. 127 00:07:10,480 --> 00:07:13,520 Speaker 1: There are homeless encampments underneath bridges and in parks. It 128 00:07:13,520 --> 00:07:16,840 Speaker 1: doesn't feel safe. I've seen shootings in the Chinatown area. 129 00:07:17,680 --> 00:07:20,760 Speaker 1: I've been followed by crazy people who are talking to themselves, 130 00:07:20,760 --> 00:07:24,480 Speaker 1: and those were not Democratic members of Congress, genuinely crazy 131 00:07:24,520 --> 00:07:27,480 Speaker 1: people who lived on the street. It is not safe. 132 00:07:27,520 --> 00:07:29,960 Speaker 1: It is just not a safe city, especially in certain hours. 133 00:07:30,240 --> 00:07:33,080 Speaker 1: And as of twenty twenty three, it had the fourth 134 00:07:33,080 --> 00:07:37,400 Speaker 1: worst homicide rate in our country, only behind Saint Louis 135 00:07:37,400 --> 00:07:40,320 Speaker 1: and Baltimore. I suspect actually they're now they're higher than 136 00:07:40,360 --> 00:07:43,200 Speaker 1: Baltimore because they've had a crackdown on crime there. The 137 00:07:43,280 --> 00:07:46,240 Speaker 1: homicide rate is so bad it is eight times the 138 00:07:46,240 --> 00:07:49,360 Speaker 1: homicira is eight times higher than the city of Fallujah 139 00:07:49,360 --> 00:07:53,960 Speaker 1: in Iraq. So I think anything to change the city's 140 00:07:54,480 --> 00:07:58,160 Speaker 1: current trajectory is welcomed. I mean, that is just the truth. 141 00:07:58,200 --> 00:08:00,680 Speaker 1: And I know that liberals are going to that. I mean, 142 00:08:00,920 --> 00:08:03,080 Speaker 1: I don't know that they're going to they have lost 143 00:08:03,160 --> 00:08:05,640 Speaker 1: their minds. You know, you know who else put troops 144 00:08:05,640 --> 00:08:08,560 Speaker 1: in their federal capital Hitler? I don't. I don't know 145 00:08:08,560 --> 00:08:10,560 Speaker 1: if they actually said that, but verbatim. But I'm going 146 00:08:10,600 --> 00:08:13,560 Speaker 1: to assume that someone invoked Hitler to make a comparison 147 00:08:13,600 --> 00:08:15,920 Speaker 1: to Trump about this move, because that's what lazy brain 148 00:08:15,960 --> 00:08:20,280 Speaker 1: deed people do. But while washingt d c. Is incredibly 149 00:08:20,760 --> 00:08:24,840 Speaker 1: dangerous still and especially in international standards, and let's see, 150 00:08:24,840 --> 00:08:28,520 Speaker 1: if you know, uh, international standards by the West, it's 151 00:08:28,520 --> 00:08:30,880 Speaker 1: safer than cities in like Columbia and Brazil, but it 152 00:08:30,960 --> 00:08:34,120 Speaker 1: is not safer than cities and like Sweden and Canada, 153 00:08:34,160 --> 00:08:36,160 Speaker 1: the people that we have to actually compete with on 154 00:08:36,200 --> 00:08:42,000 Speaker 1: the global stage. While it is, while it is dangerous, 155 00:08:43,880 --> 00:08:51,000 Speaker 1: overall crime in America has become much better. American crime 156 00:08:51,040 --> 00:08:55,880 Speaker 1: in America is on its way to a place that 157 00:08:55,920 --> 00:08:58,920 Speaker 1: we have not seen in living memory for most people. 158 00:08:59,320 --> 00:09:02,400 Speaker 1: So in the story of crime overwhelming Washington c And 159 00:09:02,400 --> 00:09:06,280 Speaker 1: by the way, the perpetrators of crime are overwhelmingly black, 160 00:09:06,800 --> 00:09:09,320 Speaker 1: the victims of crime are overwhelming black. I looked up 161 00:09:09,320 --> 00:09:13,080 Speaker 1: the statistic before in a black person in Washington CE 162 00:09:13,280 --> 00:09:16,560 Speaker 1: is ninety seven times more likely to be murdered than 163 00:09:16,679 --> 00:09:20,640 Speaker 1: a white American. There were one thousand, two hundred and 164 00:09:20,679 --> 00:09:23,760 Speaker 1: forty one Black Americans who were murdered in Washington C 165 00:09:24,400 --> 00:09:28,319 Speaker 1: in the last seven years. There were just eleven white Americans. 166 00:09:28,720 --> 00:09:32,280 Speaker 1: So anyone who wants to sit there and say that 167 00:09:32,360 --> 00:09:36,839 Speaker 1: this is white supremacy or whatever, the overwhelming group of 168 00:09:36,840 --> 00:09:39,160 Speaker 1: people who will benefit from any kind of crackton and 169 00:09:39,240 --> 00:09:42,840 Speaker 1: crime are almost always Black people. Rudy Giuliani, for what 170 00:09:42,920 --> 00:09:46,120 Speaker 1: he did in New York, saved more black lives than 171 00:09:46,360 --> 00:09:51,760 Speaker 1: Mandani will in ten thousand lifetimes of social justice bs 172 00:09:51,960 --> 00:09:55,680 Speaker 1: Washington C. Aside and that that statistic, though of crime 173 00:09:55,720 --> 00:09:58,319 Speaker 1: being higher in black communities, is overwhelmingly true. Across the 174 00:09:58,320 --> 00:10:02,480 Speaker 1: all country. Crime is down, and we are trending in 175 00:10:02,520 --> 00:10:04,320 Speaker 1: a way that we have not seen in a decade. 176 00:10:04,400 --> 00:10:07,200 Speaker 1: I know it's easy to forget because it's been over 177 00:10:07,280 --> 00:10:10,400 Speaker 1: ten years, but violent crime was on a steady decrease 178 00:10:10,440 --> 00:10:14,400 Speaker 1: from the early nineties until twenty fourteen. Then the death 179 00:10:14,440 --> 00:10:17,800 Speaker 1: of Michael Brown happened in Ferguson. The Black Lives Matter 180 00:10:17,880 --> 00:10:21,240 Speaker 1: movement was born in decades of progress. We're just like 181 00:10:21,280 --> 00:10:23,840 Speaker 1: wiped away in the blink of an eye, as is 182 00:10:23,880 --> 00:10:28,360 Speaker 1: always the case of progress. You know, everything that we 183 00:10:28,440 --> 00:10:30,760 Speaker 1: have that we enjoy society can be wiped away by 184 00:10:30,760 --> 00:10:34,160 Speaker 1: bad governance. And that's what happened with crime. You'll see 185 00:10:34,160 --> 00:10:37,000 Speaker 1: a number of studies that say violent crime more or 186 00:10:37,080 --> 00:10:39,400 Speaker 1: less continue to decrease. A big part of that is 187 00:10:39,400 --> 00:10:44,040 Speaker 1: because burglaries have massively declined over the last several decades 188 00:10:44,080 --> 00:10:47,480 Speaker 1: because people have home security systems and cameras and whatnot. 189 00:10:48,000 --> 00:10:50,880 Speaker 1: But I'm going to focus in on homicides because it 190 00:10:50,960 --> 00:10:54,959 Speaker 1: is the most violent of violent crimes, and it tends 191 00:10:54,960 --> 00:10:57,880 Speaker 1: to be a hard crime for cities to underplay because 192 00:10:57,920 --> 00:11:00,600 Speaker 1: there is a dead body. I mean, that is that 193 00:11:00,760 --> 00:11:03,000 Speaker 1: is the big thing that really makes sure you can't 194 00:11:04,440 --> 00:11:08,360 Speaker 1: fidget with the homicide numbers all that much. The homicide 195 00:11:08,400 --> 00:11:13,280 Speaker 1: rate in twenty fourteen hit four point four deaths per 196 00:11:13,320 --> 00:11:16,760 Speaker 1: one hundred thousand people, which was a decade lower. It 197 00:11:17,240 --> 00:11:20,720 Speaker 1: was considered a massive accomplishment in twenty fourteen. Then obviously 198 00:11:20,800 --> 00:11:23,599 Speaker 1: Ferguson happens and it rises to four point nine and 199 00:11:23,679 --> 00:11:27,880 Speaker 1: twenty fifteen, then it continues to increase through the rest 200 00:11:27,920 --> 00:11:31,040 Speaker 1: of the decade between five point five to five debt 201 00:11:31,120 --> 00:11:34,679 Speaker 1: murders per one hundred thousand people. Then Floyd happens and 202 00:11:34,720 --> 00:11:38,840 Speaker 1: it hit six point eight and twenty twenty the highest 203 00:11:38,880 --> 00:11:41,400 Speaker 1: rates in nineteen ninety six, and things are just I mean, 204 00:11:41,480 --> 00:11:46,480 Speaker 1: there's thousands and thousands of excess deaths. Well, the news 205 00:11:46,480 --> 00:11:49,920 Speaker 1: are breaking that this first half of twenty twenty five, 206 00:11:50,800 --> 00:11:54,640 Speaker 1: murder is down, not only just in major cities that 207 00:11:54,679 --> 00:11:59,040 Speaker 1: have had long standing high rates of homicide like Baltimore, Philadelphia, 208 00:11:59,120 --> 00:12:02,640 Speaker 1: and New Orleans and Saint Louis, even cities like Chicago 209 00:12:02,720 --> 00:12:05,680 Speaker 1: which have a bad mayor bad governance and still have 210 00:12:05,720 --> 00:12:08,920 Speaker 1: a disturbing high amount of homicides five hundred and one 211 00:12:08,960 --> 00:12:15,599 Speaker 1: so far last year. Crime is still declining Washington C. 212 00:12:16,000 --> 00:12:18,120 Speaker 1: Even in Washington C. Which is an outlier for being 213 00:12:18,320 --> 00:12:22,600 Speaker 1: high levels, I think twenty three murders per one hundred 214 00:12:22,600 --> 00:12:28,000 Speaker 1: thousand people, it is still on the decline side. Note 215 00:12:28,000 --> 00:12:30,079 Speaker 1: that was very, very funny. There's a New York Times 216 00:12:30,080 --> 00:12:32,880 Speaker 1: reporter by the way, named Linda Quinn who chided Trump 217 00:12:33,360 --> 00:12:35,600 Speaker 1: that she was like he said, DC's had the most 218 00:12:35,679 --> 00:12:37,760 Speaker 1: murder ever in twenty twenty three, and it's not the 219 00:12:37,760 --> 00:12:41,720 Speaker 1: most murder ever Justin's nineteen ninety seven, as if anyone cared, 220 00:12:41,760 --> 00:12:44,360 Speaker 1: like twenty years and give it a break, all right. 221 00:12:44,360 --> 00:12:48,640 Speaker 1: So the FBI statistics say that homicide will hit four 222 00:12:48,760 --> 00:12:52,160 Speaker 1: murders per one hundred thousand people this year. That is 223 00:12:52,200 --> 00:12:55,760 Speaker 1: the lowest level in sixty five years. Lowis since Neil 224 00:12:55,880 --> 00:12:58,839 Speaker 1: Armstrong walked on the Moon, or at least film that 225 00:12:58,880 --> 00:13:01,000 Speaker 1: he walked on the moon. I mean, whatever your opinion is, 226 00:13:01,280 --> 00:13:04,560 Speaker 1: but it is the lowest levels in sixty five years. 227 00:13:05,040 --> 00:13:08,960 Speaker 1: There has not been a time, basically in living memory, 228 00:13:09,520 --> 00:13:13,200 Speaker 1: that America has been safer when it comes to homicide. 229 00:13:13,240 --> 00:13:16,839 Speaker 1: And this is a great, wonderful development that we all 230 00:13:16,840 --> 00:13:20,480 Speaker 1: should be celebrating across party lines. I spoke to Charles 231 00:13:20,520 --> 00:13:23,080 Speaker 1: fain Layman of the Manhattan Institute of Hadding on this 232 00:13:23,080 --> 00:13:27,040 Speaker 1: podcast before to discuss why this has happened and how 233 00:13:27,440 --> 00:13:30,040 Speaker 1: it maybe could reverse in the coming future, how we 234 00:13:30,080 --> 00:13:33,520 Speaker 1: could see crime level spike. He's coming on next. 235 00:13:36,679 --> 00:13:40,360 Speaker 2: With me today is Charles fain Lehman. Thank you so much. 236 00:13:40,520 --> 00:13:44,080 Speaker 2: He has a great story in the Free Press discussing 237 00:13:44,160 --> 00:13:47,880 Speaker 2: why the murder rate has fallen so significantly. Girls. It's 238 00:13:47,920 --> 00:13:51,680 Speaker 2: fallen by an estimate fourteen percent. According to Jevin Asser, 239 00:13:52,000 --> 00:13:55,400 Speaker 2: what would you say is the biggest leading indicators is 240 00:13:55,400 --> 00:13:57,960 Speaker 2: why our homicide rate is declining so substantially. 241 00:13:58,720 --> 00:14:00,960 Speaker 3: Yeah, you know, Look, I think that there's are two stories. 242 00:14:01,280 --> 00:14:04,280 Speaker 3: One is the story about burnout, which is murder is 243 00:14:04,320 --> 00:14:07,400 Speaker 3: concentrated among a small number of people. Usually it's a 244 00:14:07,400 --> 00:14:09,520 Speaker 3: function of those people beeping with each other, they get 245 00:14:09,559 --> 00:14:13,440 Speaker 3: into arguments, those arguments escalate, they shoot. Once I shoot, 246 00:14:13,480 --> 00:14:16,800 Speaker 3: you shoot that there's a cycle. That cycle burns out 247 00:14:17,000 --> 00:14:20,480 Speaker 3: because to put it very bluntly, eventually enough of the 248 00:14:20,520 --> 00:14:23,160 Speaker 3: shooters we did that, you're not gonna a pink pat 249 00:14:23,240 --> 00:14:26,360 Speaker 3: affectedies off. I I think it's quite likely that's. 250 00:14:26,280 --> 00:14:27,040 Speaker 1: Part of the story. 251 00:14:27,200 --> 00:14:29,720 Speaker 3: But then another part of the story is that you 252 00:14:29,760 --> 00:14:32,480 Speaker 3: know that there's a large spike and murder in twenty 253 00:14:32,520 --> 00:14:37,360 Speaker 3: twenty that was downstrough both the cob pandemic and shutting 254 00:14:37,360 --> 00:14:43,440 Speaker 3: down the needle major institutions, schools, rich jails, et cetera. 255 00:14:43,640 --> 00:14:44,920 Speaker 3: That a lot of people on the street who are 256 00:14:44,920 --> 00:14:47,880 Speaker 3: going to bend. And then also of course defend the 257 00:14:47,880 --> 00:14:52,880 Speaker 3: police movement after Don George Floyd, which pushed cops to 258 00:14:52,920 --> 00:14:54,840 Speaker 3: do less and push them cops out of the profession. 259 00:14:55,360 --> 00:14:58,480 Speaker 3: I think that we have seen a slackening of both 260 00:14:58,520 --> 00:15:01,520 Speaker 3: of those tendencies where A we were opened back off 261 00:15:01,520 --> 00:15:02,880 Speaker 3: and then b I think a lot of big city 262 00:15:02,920 --> 00:15:06,160 Speaker 3: sex have realized that getting on board with the rhetoric 263 00:15:06,640 --> 00:15:09,440 Speaker 3: fund was probably a mistake. The New York Trains this morning, 264 00:15:09,880 --> 00:15:13,920 Speaker 3: I had an op ed basically acknowledging that defunds helped 265 00:15:13,960 --> 00:15:16,440 Speaker 3: drive the increasing time and saying don't bet sake again. 266 00:15:16,480 --> 00:15:18,880 Speaker 3: I think a lot of big city executives are saying 267 00:15:19,000 --> 00:15:19,640 Speaker 3: the same thing. 268 00:15:20,200 --> 00:15:23,800 Speaker 2: Okay, So in twenty we had a declining homicide rate 269 00:15:23,960 --> 00:15:27,640 Speaker 2: from like the nineteen nineties all the late twenty fourteen, 270 00:15:27,680 --> 00:15:31,160 Speaker 2: and then Ferguson happens. And after Ferguson, I mean, it 271 00:15:31,200 --> 00:15:33,600 Speaker 2: goes up, it goes down, but it's really always kind 272 00:15:33,600 --> 00:15:37,120 Speaker 2: of never declining at a certain level. And twenty twenty 273 00:15:37,120 --> 00:15:40,480 Speaker 2: happens and its spikes are we below the Ferguson effect yet? 274 00:15:41,720 --> 00:15:43,320 Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean so I've written a little bit of this, 275 00:15:43,400 --> 00:15:46,880 Speaker 3: and my argument is basically, like the structural determinatives of 276 00:15:46,880 --> 00:15:49,160 Speaker 3: homicide say it should keep going down, which by that 277 00:15:49,240 --> 00:15:51,680 Speaker 3: I mean basically the population is aging and homicide is 278 00:15:51,720 --> 00:15:54,440 Speaker 3: mostly a young man's game, and also way more surveilled 279 00:15:54,480 --> 00:15:57,760 Speaker 3: in the population than we were twenty thirty years ago. 280 00:15:57,800 --> 00:16:00,200 Speaker 3: Everyone in the camera in the pocket, that should drive 281 00:16:00,240 --> 00:16:03,520 Speaker 3: down attending all speed. I said, we've now gone through 282 00:16:03,520 --> 00:16:06,320 Speaker 3: two of these cycles where twenty fourteen, twenty sixteen and 283 00:16:06,360 --> 00:16:09,680 Speaker 3: twenty twenty to twenty twenty two twenties homicide took off, 284 00:16:10,200 --> 00:16:13,600 Speaker 3: and you know it was mogely responsiblity, the viral instance. 285 00:16:13,680 --> 00:16:15,680 Speaker 3: You now have a lot of highqoloity evidence and says yes, 286 00:16:16,080 --> 00:16:19,880 Speaker 3: these viral incidents following followed by police protests really can 287 00:16:20,080 --> 00:16:24,280 Speaker 3: drive increases it increased in pose activities and increases in homicide. 288 00:16:24,480 --> 00:16:28,000 Speaker 3: Pollis into that. So you know, I think unless is 289 00:16:28,040 --> 00:16:30,440 Speaker 3: like the version of prices, when it's like the version 290 00:16:30,480 --> 00:16:32,800 Speaker 3: of creates these cycles. And we've now gone through two 291 00:16:32,840 --> 00:16:34,560 Speaker 3: of these cycles, and the question is what can we 292 00:16:34,600 --> 00:16:37,040 Speaker 3: avoid more of these cycles? So I think the answer 293 00:16:37,080 --> 00:16:39,600 Speaker 3: is there was a big backlash in you know, twenty 294 00:16:39,640 --> 00:16:41,400 Speaker 3: twenty two to twenty twenty three, you saw a bunch 295 00:16:41,400 --> 00:16:43,680 Speaker 3: of mayors come in. Eric Adams of New York, a, 296 00:16:43,760 --> 00:16:47,920 Speaker 3: Januel Luria and San Francisco is the most recent example. Folks, 297 00:16:47,960 --> 00:16:51,360 Speaker 3: who has public safety becomes the sale issue? Pro voters, 298 00:16:51,400 --> 00:16:53,960 Speaker 3: it becomes their top priority. They really focus on it, 299 00:16:54,080 --> 00:16:57,200 Speaker 3: and they exact will respond to that to be hopitabile 300 00:16:57,520 --> 00:17:00,480 Speaker 3: sometimes respond to that and like the is that you 301 00:17:00,480 --> 00:17:02,080 Speaker 3: can be a victim of your and the success at 302 00:17:02,160 --> 00:17:03,680 Speaker 3: this part of what you're seeing here in New York 303 00:17:03,720 --> 00:17:07,680 Speaker 3: City where the Acadams really has eventually gotten the crime 304 00:17:07,720 --> 00:17:10,280 Speaker 3: rate down platy precipitously, and now voters are like, Okay, 305 00:17:10,280 --> 00:17:12,880 Speaker 3: I'm less worried about crime. I'm more worried at cost 306 00:17:13,000 --> 00:17:16,520 Speaker 3: of living. From Mondanie for better or worse owns that lane. 307 00:17:16,600 --> 00:17:18,040 Speaker 3: And I think a lot of the reasons He's are 308 00:17:18,040 --> 00:17:20,280 Speaker 3: going to win and Ober Adams are not is because 309 00:17:20,280 --> 00:17:23,399 Speaker 3: public stagey is less saliens of issues. You know, I 310 00:17:23,400 --> 00:17:25,359 Speaker 3: think I think there was the backlash. I think we 311 00:17:25,520 --> 00:17:27,280 Speaker 3: kind of come to the end of the backlash, and 312 00:17:27,320 --> 00:17:29,320 Speaker 3: now the question is like, oh, we're going to start 313 00:17:29,520 --> 00:17:31,440 Speaker 3: Look at New York, you look at Seattle, you look 314 00:17:31,440 --> 00:17:34,080 Speaker 3: at Minneapolis. Are we going to start installing reacent these 315 00:17:34,119 --> 00:17:35,679 Speaker 3: asters going to start the cycle again? 316 00:17:36,080 --> 00:17:36,280 Speaker 1: There? 317 00:17:36,400 --> 00:17:38,320 Speaker 3: These are a free city that are likely to install 318 00:17:38,720 --> 00:17:42,359 Speaker 3: DSA member far left become the police tips in their mayalties. 319 00:17:42,960 --> 00:17:45,560 Speaker 3: I am very concerned that they're gonna you know, they 320 00:17:45,680 --> 00:17:47,560 Speaker 3: occasionally talking of your gay about the fund, but I 321 00:17:47,560 --> 00:17:49,919 Speaker 3: think they're going to start backpacking on the games that 322 00:17:49,920 --> 00:17:52,359 Speaker 3: we've seen over the past couple of years because they know, 323 00:17:52,800 --> 00:17:54,440 Speaker 3: you know, we're at we're at a local minimum. We 324 00:17:54,480 --> 00:17:56,240 Speaker 3: don't have to worry about anymore. We can go back 325 00:17:56,280 --> 00:17:58,120 Speaker 3: to the more radical priorities. 326 00:17:58,720 --> 00:18:01,159 Speaker 2: Well, I mean, Brandon Johnson's a mayor of Chicago and 327 00:18:01,240 --> 00:18:04,760 Speaker 2: Chicago's my rate still don't mind, So that doesn't seem 328 00:18:04,800 --> 00:18:08,959 Speaker 2: like it's basically what you're saying, it's a race between 329 00:18:09,119 --> 00:18:13,160 Speaker 2: progressives versus an aging society. What will happen that will 330 00:18:13,240 --> 00:18:17,879 Speaker 2: the DSA candidates overturn everything or will the aging society 331 00:18:17,960 --> 00:18:20,360 Speaker 2: eventually went out and we'll just have less murder because 332 00:18:20,359 --> 00:18:21,879 Speaker 2: people will be older, you know. 333 00:18:21,920 --> 00:18:24,560 Speaker 3: I think the executive isn't the sole determinate And there 334 00:18:24,560 --> 00:18:27,639 Speaker 3: are structural factory right there is that burnout and she 335 00:18:27,640 --> 00:18:29,760 Speaker 3: looks I had a major humicide problem for a very 336 00:18:29,760 --> 00:18:31,600 Speaker 3: long time, and I think that's part by Johnson is 337 00:18:31,680 --> 00:18:34,080 Speaker 3: historically and flopular is good like a four percent of 338 00:18:34,160 --> 00:18:37,560 Speaker 3: profal rating and stuff. But yeah, I mean I do 339 00:18:37,680 --> 00:18:40,920 Speaker 3: think that the reality is that we do know what 340 00:18:41,080 --> 00:18:44,280 Speaker 3: works to suppress crime. We have the tools. It's no 341 00:18:44,320 --> 00:18:47,320 Speaker 3: only a seventies in the seventies, the nineties happens when 342 00:18:47,359 --> 00:18:48,000 Speaker 3: the only happens. 343 00:18:48,080 --> 00:18:48,800 Speaker 1: We know what works. 344 00:18:48,880 --> 00:18:50,720 Speaker 3: And since the question is like do you choose to 345 00:18:50,800 --> 00:18:52,560 Speaker 3: use this tool to not I think a lot of 346 00:18:52,600 --> 00:18:54,880 Speaker 3: cities chose to not use those tools for a couple 347 00:18:54,920 --> 00:18:57,639 Speaker 3: of years. Uh, they got the expected result. They bratched 348 00:18:57,680 --> 00:18:59,520 Speaker 3: it a deck, and then now it's just like, are 349 00:18:59,520 --> 00:19:02,280 Speaker 3: they going to learn History's lesson? I'm skeptical, but they will. 350 00:19:02,320 --> 00:19:04,119 Speaker 3: I kind of I'm concerned that we're going to go 351 00:19:04,200 --> 00:19:06,639 Speaker 3: back to this model like crime is down, therefore we 352 00:19:06,640 --> 00:19:09,119 Speaker 3: can know from the jails. That's my worry. 353 00:19:10,040 --> 00:19:12,520 Speaker 2: Well, Charles, thank you for doing this. I really appreciate it. 354 00:19:12,600 --> 00:19:14,080 Speaker 2: Where can people go to read more about you? 355 00:19:15,200 --> 00:19:16,919 Speaker 3: I think you find me on x at Charles MTh 356 00:19:16,960 --> 00:19:19,879 Speaker 3: Lehman and I'm alsoever at Cityjournal, citdydeak journal dot org. 357 00:19:20,040 --> 00:19:21,119 Speaker 3: You can find all of my writings. 358 00:19:21,560 --> 00:19:24,160 Speaker 2: You're listening to It's a numbers game with Ryan Grodsky. 359 00:19:24,240 --> 00:19:25,120 Speaker 2: We'll be right back. 360 00:19:28,280 --> 00:19:31,400 Speaker 1: Charles was traveling, so the conversation was short, but essentially, 361 00:19:31,440 --> 00:19:34,359 Speaker 1: we are falling in our crime rate because the local 362 00:19:34,440 --> 00:19:37,720 Speaker 1: municipalities have dumped, the defund the police, democrats, and we're 363 00:19:37,720 --> 00:19:41,720 Speaker 1: in an aging society. I think people underestimate how much 364 00:19:41,800 --> 00:19:44,040 Speaker 1: age plays in a role in our crime rate. There 365 00:19:44,119 --> 00:19:46,399 Speaker 1: is a wonderful book called The Rise and Fall of 366 00:19:46,480 --> 00:19:49,680 Speaker 1: Violent Crime in America by Barry Latser. He talks about 367 00:19:49,720 --> 00:19:52,400 Speaker 1: this a lot like the nineteen seventy saw this explosion 368 00:19:52,440 --> 00:19:56,520 Speaker 1: of serial killers and large crime, a large homicide rates, 369 00:19:56,560 --> 00:20:00,600 Speaker 1: in part because the baby boomers had hit their twenties, 370 00:20:00,760 --> 00:20:04,040 Speaker 1: and as Charles said, killing is a young man's game, 371 00:20:04,119 --> 00:20:08,360 Speaker 1: murders a young man's game. People usually don't start becoming 372 00:20:08,400 --> 00:20:12,280 Speaker 1: serial killers in their fifties and sixties. So as the 373 00:20:12,320 --> 00:20:17,080 Speaker 1: baby boomers hit their twenties, especially later baby boomers, homicide 374 00:20:17,119 --> 00:20:19,600 Speaker 1: starts picking up in the seventies. And as they start 375 00:20:19,600 --> 00:20:21,960 Speaker 1: aging out of the process and there are less children, 376 00:20:22,119 --> 00:20:24,960 Speaker 1: as the birth rates fall, there's less homicide, and that 377 00:20:25,040 --> 00:20:28,000 Speaker 1: completely that slows down. There were things like the crack 378 00:20:28,520 --> 00:20:31,960 Speaker 1: explosion and whatnot that increased it in some spots in 379 00:20:32,000 --> 00:20:35,239 Speaker 1: some cities, but that is the overall trend is an 380 00:20:35,240 --> 00:20:36,879 Speaker 1: aging society produces. 381 00:20:36,560 --> 00:20:38,720 Speaker 2: Less criminals, and we are in an aging society. 382 00:20:38,720 --> 00:20:39,720 Speaker 1: Whether that's good or bad. 383 00:20:40,000 --> 00:20:42,080 Speaker 2: That's a whole other conversation which I've talked about and 384 00:20:42,119 --> 00:20:43,760 Speaker 2: I probably will continue. 385 00:20:43,440 --> 00:20:45,480 Speaker 1: To talk about. We'll see if the likes of like 386 00:20:45,520 --> 00:20:47,879 Speaker 1: Mandani and others will reverse these trends because they are 387 00:20:47,880 --> 00:20:51,320 Speaker 1: committed to the socials vision that doesn't include strong polasing. 388 00:20:51,520 --> 00:20:56,320 Speaker 1: I hope not, because overall this is very, very good news. 389 00:20:56,400 --> 00:20:58,359 Speaker 1: Now it's time for the ask Me Anything segment of 390 00:20:58,359 --> 00:21:00,560 Speaker 1: this podcast. If you wanted part of the Ask Me 391 00:21:00,560 --> 00:21:04,080 Speaker 1: Anything segment, email me Ryan at Numbers gamepodcast dot com. 392 00:21:04,119 --> 00:21:07,399 Speaker 1: That's Ryan at Numbers gamepodcast dot com. You guys mostly 393 00:21:07,440 --> 00:21:12,879 Speaker 1: asked me about campaigns and politics, and I completely understand, 394 00:21:13,920 --> 00:21:17,119 Speaker 1: but you could ask me about virtually anything and I 395 00:21:17,160 --> 00:21:20,480 Speaker 1: will try to get to it on the show. And 396 00:21:20,880 --> 00:21:25,280 Speaker 1: you know anyway, So this email comes from Brian J. Fox. 397 00:21:25,320 --> 00:21:27,360 Speaker 1: He writes, Ryan, it's the Numbers Game is my handown 398 00:21:27,359 --> 00:21:28,240 Speaker 1: favorite podcast. 399 00:21:28,280 --> 00:21:30,399 Speaker 2: Brian, thank you. That means a lot to me. The 400 00:21:30,440 --> 00:21:34,160 Speaker 2: founding fathers designed a bicameral legislature to win the House 401 00:21:34,200 --> 00:21:36,399 Speaker 2: representing the people and the Senate representing the states. The 402 00:21:36,440 --> 00:21:38,480 Speaker 2: seventeen Amendment, ratified in nineteen. 403 00:21:38,280 --> 00:21:42,240 Speaker 1: Thirteen to address corruption and deadlock, and state legislators established 404 00:21:42,280 --> 00:21:46,480 Speaker 1: direct elections for senators, fundamentally altering the bounds. Both chambers 405 00:21:46,520 --> 00:21:49,560 Speaker 1: are now beholden to voters, reducing the influence of state governments. 406 00:21:49,560 --> 00:21:54,240 Speaker 1: If the seventeen Amendment were repealed and transparent process such 407 00:21:54,240 --> 00:21:57,720 Speaker 1: an open legislative voting and ethics oversight for state legislators 408 00:21:57,840 --> 00:22:01,520 Speaker 1: to appoint senators was implemented, how would this affect the 409 00:22:01,560 --> 00:22:05,200 Speaker 1: Senate's composition and representation in state's interests? Would it improve 410 00:22:05,280 --> 00:22:08,240 Speaker 1: state's power in the federal system? Thank you so much, Brian. 411 00:22:08,280 --> 00:22:11,840 Speaker 1: That is such a good question, and I am not 412 00:22:12,040 --> 00:22:15,760 Speaker 1: going to lie. It is something I've actually thought about before. 413 00:22:17,640 --> 00:22:20,439 Speaker 1: And I know that sounds like I'm crazy, but I 414 00:22:20,480 --> 00:22:22,440 Speaker 1: actually have thought about this quite a bit of time 415 00:22:22,840 --> 00:22:25,600 Speaker 1: because I born and raised in New York. As I 416 00:22:25,640 --> 00:22:27,760 Speaker 1: always sit there and remind people if they can't tell 417 00:22:27,760 --> 00:22:32,600 Speaker 1: by this accent, but in New York we had the 418 00:22:32,640 --> 00:22:36,120 Speaker 1: state Senate used to elect the Senate US senators. So 419 00:22:36,680 --> 00:22:40,399 Speaker 1: the state Senate in New York for over one hundred 420 00:22:40,480 --> 00:22:43,399 Speaker 1: years was Republican, and then it was like this weird 421 00:22:43,480 --> 00:22:47,240 Speaker 1: Republican Democrat coalition of like modern Democrats, and they had 422 00:22:47,280 --> 00:22:50,840 Speaker 1: some sharing power thing whatever. But Republicans basically controlled the 423 00:22:50,880 --> 00:22:53,840 Speaker 1: state Senate for over one hundred years. They had I 424 00:22:53,880 --> 00:22:56,200 Speaker 1: think a four year break in that one hundred year process. 425 00:22:56,800 --> 00:23:01,600 Speaker 1: And had this the seventeen Amendment not been appealed, we 426 00:23:01,640 --> 00:23:05,400 Speaker 1: would have absolutely had two Republican senators from New York probably, 427 00:23:06,280 --> 00:23:09,159 Speaker 1: I mean, depending when terms ended, we may still have one. 428 00:23:09,200 --> 00:23:11,679 Speaker 1: It would end up being a Democrat, but it would 429 00:23:11,760 --> 00:23:14,400 Speaker 1: I mean, it would have changed now, it would that 430 00:23:14,520 --> 00:23:18,840 Speaker 1: kind of process of having no direct election to senators 431 00:23:18,960 --> 00:23:23,399 Speaker 1: that would ultimately likely mean I mean almost sure and 432 00:23:23,440 --> 00:23:25,720 Speaker 1: guaranteed mean like there would never be a Senator JD 433 00:23:25,800 --> 00:23:28,600 Speaker 1: vance Right because we would need then we needed the 434 00:23:28,640 --> 00:23:30,360 Speaker 1: people to vote for him. I don't think the legislators 435 00:23:30,359 --> 00:23:32,000 Speaker 1: would have ever voted for him. It would have definitely 436 00:23:32,040 --> 00:23:36,280 Speaker 1: created a situation where a lot of our most iconic 437 00:23:36,359 --> 00:23:39,639 Speaker 1: senators who have been there because they were outside the 438 00:23:39,640 --> 00:23:44,480 Speaker 1: box and appeal to voters not the party system, may 439 00:23:44,520 --> 00:23:46,000 Speaker 1: not have been there. Would we have ever gotten a 440 00:23:46,080 --> 00:23:49,160 Speaker 1: Verry Goldwater. Would we have ever gotten a JFK? Would 441 00:23:49,160 --> 00:23:53,639 Speaker 1: we have ever gotten a John McCain? I don't, I 442 00:23:53,640 --> 00:23:55,280 Speaker 1: don't know. I think for a lot of the answers 443 00:23:55,320 --> 00:23:58,359 Speaker 1: is no, So our whole history changes, right then, and 444 00:23:58,400 --> 00:24:02,960 Speaker 1: there by having this system taken. 445 00:24:02,760 --> 00:24:03,560 Speaker 2: Away and changed. 446 00:24:03,680 --> 00:24:07,159 Speaker 1: And I think that that's an important coveyat because it 447 00:24:07,200 --> 00:24:12,240 Speaker 1: would be much more politics as usual, much more kind 448 00:24:12,240 --> 00:24:16,679 Speaker 1: of insider insider baseball, because you'd have to appeal to 449 00:24:18,119 --> 00:24:21,960 Speaker 1: the party as a whole. Okay, So as far as 450 00:24:22,040 --> 00:24:25,240 Speaker 1: how would it go right now, now, the legislature has 451 00:24:25,359 --> 00:24:28,560 Speaker 1: just had their elections, So once again, this is based 452 00:24:28,600 --> 00:24:30,879 Speaker 1: on term limits, and this is based on whether or 453 00:24:30,960 --> 00:24:34,440 Speaker 1: not if the Senator would have still been an office 454 00:24:34,440 --> 00:24:37,960 Speaker 1: when the party switched. So it's not a perfect analogy, right, 455 00:24:37,960 --> 00:24:41,080 Speaker 1: it's not a perfect analogy. First of all, Alaska would 456 00:24:41,119 --> 00:24:43,280 Speaker 1: have been in a much different state because they have 457 00:24:43,359 --> 00:24:47,480 Speaker 1: a coalition sharing thing where Democrats have representation. So we 458 00:24:47,520 --> 00:24:50,639 Speaker 1: would likely see maybe one Democrat out of Alaska. That 459 00:24:50,680 --> 00:24:53,800 Speaker 1: would be one of the big changes, for sure. 460 00:24:54,880 --> 00:24:55,840 Speaker 2: I'm looking to see. 461 00:24:55,880 --> 00:24:57,399 Speaker 1: I'm looking through the list right now. We would not 462 00:24:57,400 --> 00:25:00,399 Speaker 1: have a Susan Collins. That would be unfortunate since she 463 00:25:00,880 --> 00:25:03,240 Speaker 1: votes with the Republicans more times than not. We'd have 464 00:25:03,280 --> 00:25:06,239 Speaker 1: two Democrats from Michigan as we do now. We'd have 465 00:25:06,280 --> 00:25:09,359 Speaker 1: two Democrats from Minnesota as we do now because the 466 00:25:09,359 --> 00:25:12,120 Speaker 1: Democrats control that state. We have two Democrats from Nevada 467 00:25:12,160 --> 00:25:15,760 Speaker 1: as we do now, we probably have two Republicans from 468 00:25:15,800 --> 00:25:18,560 Speaker 1: New Hampshire, So that would be a big improvement for 469 00:25:18,640 --> 00:25:22,639 Speaker 1: the Republican Party. That would be a sizeable change. We 470 00:25:22,680 --> 00:25:23,720 Speaker 1: would have two. 471 00:25:23,520 --> 00:25:25,760 Speaker 2: Senators from Pennsylvania instead of just one, so that would 472 00:25:25,760 --> 00:25:28,840 Speaker 2: be a net plus of three, and we would likely 473 00:25:28,920 --> 00:25:31,639 Speaker 2: have I think that that's it, and maybe two senators 474 00:25:31,680 --> 00:25:33,480 Speaker 2: from Wisconsin, so. 475 00:25:33,359 --> 00:25:38,919 Speaker 1: We would probably add all of four Republicans to the Senate, 476 00:25:38,960 --> 00:25:43,240 Speaker 1: so instead of having fifty three, because we have five 477 00:25:43,359 --> 00:25:45,959 Speaker 1: minus two, so we'd have three, So we'd have fifty 478 00:25:46,000 --> 00:25:50,639 Speaker 1: five Republican Senators. So nothing to break the filibuster proof majority, 479 00:25:50,720 --> 00:25:54,120 Speaker 1: nothing to ultimately change. But I want you to think 480 00:25:54,119 --> 00:25:59,640 Speaker 1: about like key legislation, right if we had had that 481 00:25:59,680 --> 00:26:04,119 Speaker 1: system in two thousand and eight, for instance, there's no 482 00:26:04,160 --> 00:26:07,600 Speaker 1: way Obamacare would have passed, or is very unlikely Obamacare 483 00:26:07,600 --> 00:26:09,600 Speaker 1: would have passed because Republicans had a majority of state 484 00:26:09,680 --> 00:26:12,480 Speaker 1: legislatures going into that election. So maybe they would have 485 00:26:12,520 --> 00:26:15,840 Speaker 1: elected a few new Democrats, but not enough that they 486 00:26:15,880 --> 00:26:18,880 Speaker 1: would have had the sixty threshold that only comes from 487 00:26:19,119 --> 00:26:21,840 Speaker 1: the Obama wave and I guess the six wave, but 488 00:26:21,960 --> 00:26:25,480 Speaker 1: that wouldn't have come from. If the legislatures are elected, 489 00:26:25,520 --> 00:26:28,720 Speaker 1: it likely there would not be too enough Democrats to 490 00:26:28,960 --> 00:26:31,360 Speaker 1: like New York would definitely at least one Republican senator 491 00:26:31,400 --> 00:26:35,080 Speaker 1: in that mix, if not too and other states would 492 00:26:35,080 --> 00:26:38,840 Speaker 1: have also had a Republican in the mix. Yeah, so 493 00:26:39,119 --> 00:26:43,480 Speaker 1: who knows our history much much much different. Our representation 494 00:26:43,640 --> 00:26:46,920 Speaker 1: would be different as well, and who we've had as 495 00:26:46,960 --> 00:26:49,399 Speaker 1: elected officials would be different. It's almost hard to like 496 00:26:49,480 --> 00:26:53,720 Speaker 1: live in that kind of alternate universe. I think it's interesting, 497 00:26:53,760 --> 00:26:54,960 Speaker 1: it's so fascinating. 498 00:26:55,800 --> 00:26:56,480 Speaker 2: I don't even know if. 499 00:26:56,440 --> 00:26:59,760 Speaker 1: I would support that, but it would be something completely different. 500 00:27:00,119 --> 00:27:03,640 Speaker 1: Republicans would have had a majority in the United States 501 00:27:03,680 --> 00:27:05,600 Speaker 1: Senate for most of our time. They would have had 502 00:27:05,640 --> 00:27:08,919 Speaker 1: a super majority. Republicans would have had over sixty seats 503 00:27:08,960 --> 00:27:14,119 Speaker 1: then around twenty fourteen, because they almost had enough legislative 504 00:27:14,119 --> 00:27:17,040 Speaker 1: Senate majorities to do a constitutional amendment on their own, 505 00:27:17,480 --> 00:27:18,960 Speaker 1: it would have been something close to it would have been 506 00:27:18,920 --> 00:27:21,080 Speaker 1: at least sixty, probably in twenty fourteen, So there would 507 00:27:21,080 --> 00:27:23,639 Speaker 1: be a moment at the end of Obama's time in 508 00:27:23,680 --> 00:27:26,080 Speaker 1: office or Republicans would have had this huge majority in 509 00:27:26,080 --> 00:27:29,639 Speaker 1: the United States Senate, but it would have been a 510 00:27:29,640 --> 00:27:33,840 Speaker 1: blump in history. So yeah, it would lean more Republican, 511 00:27:34,280 --> 00:27:37,680 Speaker 1: but we'd have much much different leaders and who knows 512 00:27:37,960 --> 00:27:40,160 Speaker 1: how that will look, and likely a lot of key 513 00:27:40,240 --> 00:27:46,159 Speaker 1: legislation that Republicans have been able to thwart would have 514 00:27:47,480 --> 00:27:51,199 Speaker 1: would have or didn't thwart, rather like Obamacare would have 515 00:27:51,200 --> 00:27:53,240 Speaker 1: never happened. Also, by the way, another thing that would 516 00:27:53,280 --> 00:27:56,320 Speaker 1: have happened, the Gingridge Revolution, probably wouldn't have happened because 517 00:27:56,359 --> 00:28:00,879 Speaker 1: Democrats controlled the legislature. Remember this. Dem Crafts controlled the 518 00:28:00,920 --> 00:28:07,640 Speaker 1: state Senate in West Virginia, Mississippi, Alabama, Arkansas well into 519 00:28:08,600 --> 00:28:11,520 Speaker 1: the mid odds I think until twenty ten, twenty twelve, 520 00:28:11,640 --> 00:28:15,480 Speaker 1: or twenty fourteen in some of those states. So yeah, Democrats, 521 00:28:15,520 --> 00:28:16,800 Speaker 1: maybe they would have had it because they would have 522 00:28:16,800 --> 00:28:20,439 Speaker 1: had two Democrats in Mississippi and two Democrats in Arkansas. 523 00:28:20,840 --> 00:28:23,399 Speaker 1: It would have been a radically different map, and it 524 00:28:23,440 --> 00:28:26,959 Speaker 1: would have probably continued the trend of conservative Democrats from 525 00:28:27,000 --> 00:28:30,399 Speaker 1: the south and liberal Republicans from the north much longer 526 00:28:30,400 --> 00:28:34,000 Speaker 1: than it ended because of the popular vote. Well, anyway, 527 00:28:34,320 --> 00:28:39,040 Speaker 1: great question. That's my overall thing. At a Republicans not 528 00:28:39,120 --> 00:28:42,440 Speaker 1: that many. We had a peak in twenty fourteen, and 529 00:28:42,520 --> 00:28:45,520 Speaker 1: it's really fascinating kind of dig down deep down. Brian, 530 00:28:45,600 --> 00:28:47,400 Speaker 1: thank you for that. I really enjoyed that. That really 531 00:28:47,400 --> 00:28:48,160 Speaker 1: brought the nerd of me. 532 00:28:48,320 --> 00:28:51,800 Speaker 2: I'm going to actually go and give you highlights in 533 00:28:51,840 --> 00:28:57,280 Speaker 2: the next episode and bring you bring you some alternatives. 534 00:28:56,720 --> 00:28:58,080 Speaker 1: In that fantasy world. 535 00:28:58,200 --> 00:29:00,560 Speaker 2: I don't know if it means anything, but I find. 536 00:29:00,360 --> 00:29:03,120 Speaker 1: It super interesting and very entertaining. Brian. Thank you for that. 537 00:29:03,360 --> 00:29:04,240 Speaker 1: Thank you all for listening. 538 00:29:04,240 --> 00:29:06,640 Speaker 2: If you like this podcast, please like and subscribe on 539 00:29:06,680 --> 00:29:09,720 Speaker 2: the iHeartRadio app, Apple podcast, wherever you get your podcasts, 540 00:29:09,720 --> 00:29:13,440 Speaker 2: and I will see you guys on Thursday.