WEBVTT - Protecting The Incumbents: Lanhee Chen Talks to A&G

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<v Speaker 1>If we're gonna talk politics with anybody, we like to

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<v Speaker 1>talk to Lan Heat Chin. He's a candidate for California

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<v Speaker 1>state controller, but he's also got all kinds of public

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<v Speaker 1>policy experience. David and dyane stuffy, fellow in American Public

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<v Speaker 1>Policy Studies at the Hoover Institution, director of domestic domestic

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<v Speaker 1>policy studies at Stanford universities, has been involved in a

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<v Speaker 1>Um attached to a bunch of different presidential campaigns. Lan

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<v Speaker 1>He welcome back to the Armstrong and getty show. Great

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<v Speaker 1>to do with you, Jack. Thank you. What do you

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<v Speaker 1>think of this idea of the Republicans trying to focus

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<v Speaker 1>on a few issues to make it clear to the

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<v Speaker 1>American people this is what we'll do for you. I

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<v Speaker 1>think it's a great idea. I think it's important to

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<v Speaker 1>offer contrast and to offer ideas, as you know, not

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<v Speaker 1>not just saying hey, we're not going to beat them,

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<v Speaker 1>but to say, listen, what are what are some of

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<v Speaker 1>the things that Republicans will do if they have the

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<v Speaker 1>opportunity to be in the majority in the house? And

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<v Speaker 1>it's very similar to what new gingridge did the contract

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<v Speaker 1>with America, focusing in on a few really important issues

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<v Speaker 1>like around the economy and how Republicans are gonna try

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<v Speaker 1>and help to make things more affordable in our country

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<v Speaker 1>after the decimation we've seen from inflation and now coming recession. Uh,

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<v Speaker 1>you know, talking about health care and how to make

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<v Speaker 1>healthcare more affordable and accessible to people. So I think

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<v Speaker 1>it's great to have an agenda. I think the challenge

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<v Speaker 1>obviously now is how much bandwidth and how much attention

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<v Speaker 1>is it going to get in the closing weeks of

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<v Speaker 1>a campaign, when when really substance tends to go out

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<v Speaker 1>the door, unfortunately, and it's all about, you know, attacks

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<v Speaker 1>in this and one way and the other. I do

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<v Speaker 1>think it's a good idea to offer the alternative. I

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<v Speaker 1>wish they've done it a little bit earlier, quickly. Yeah,

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<v Speaker 1>that's interesting. We're talking about that earlier. Just how and

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<v Speaker 1>I'm sure both parties are trying to figure this out.

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<v Speaker 1>In the modern world, people are starting to vote in

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<v Speaker 1>certain areas of the country today. So when do you

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<v Speaker 1>when do you announce your closing message? You know, gazillions

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<v Speaker 1>of people, like myself, I'm still a show up at

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<v Speaker 1>the polling place and vote on voting day. I just

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<v Speaker 1>for some reason like doing it that way. But you

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<v Speaker 1>know that's a shrinking group of people. So when do

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<v Speaker 1>you when do you unleash your closing argument now? Yeah,

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<v Speaker 1>it's interesting. The modern campaign has extended. Uh, you know

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<v Speaker 1>very much so. I mean we already knew it was

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<v Speaker 1>extending earlier, but when you talked about a closing message,

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<v Speaker 1>it used to be the case that you would have

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<v Speaker 1>a closing message in the last week of October and

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<v Speaker 1>you'd run two weeks. I remember doing a bunch of

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<v Speaker 1>different presidential campaigns over the years and we would sort

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<v Speaker 1>of go into that closing argument, you know, right around

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<v Speaker 1>Halloween and it gives herself usually a nice runway of

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<v Speaker 1>about a week, a week and a half to really

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<v Speaker 1>close strong. But to your point, I mean you look

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<v Speaker 1>at the state of California as an example. Ballots will

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<v Speaker 1>be in the mail October tent and it creates essentially

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<v Speaker 1>a rolling for week ellection. In Pennsylvania, I understand someone

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<v Speaker 1>told me that they've got ballots out already in Pennsylvania.

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<v Speaker 1>You can already request an abstency ballot now. So it

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<v Speaker 1>is an extended period of time and it changes the

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<v Speaker 1>character of campaigns, changes the nature of what campaigns and

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<v Speaker 1>candidates need to do and and it's it's almost like

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<v Speaker 1>you've got to start building into your closing argument through

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<v Speaker 1>the month of September and into October. And you know,

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<v Speaker 1>as I think about my own handed to seeing what

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<v Speaker 1>we're doing here in California, that that's how we're approaching it.

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<v Speaker 1>We're approaching it as a a lengthy period of time

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<v Speaker 1>over which you need to build your case, as opposed

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<v Speaker 1>to what it used to because about, you know, ten

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<v Speaker 1>days to two weeks. Do you think that's better? or

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<v Speaker 1>or or not? I I feel like I understand the,

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<v Speaker 1>you know, um of a democratic, small D democratic view

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<v Speaker 1>of making sure everybody has plenty of time to vote,

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<v Speaker 1>stretching out that sort of thing, but in terms of

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<v Speaker 1>focusing the nation's attention on issues, to have a conversation

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<v Speaker 1>about a debate about it, I think the longer period

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<v Speaker 1>is not working. Yeah, let me tell you what it does,

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<v Speaker 1>in my view, is it protects incumbents, because if you're

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<v Speaker 1>if you're already in office, and people show up and

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<v Speaker 1>they say, Oh, this guy is already a congressman or

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<v Speaker 1>this gal is already a member of the state legislature,

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<v Speaker 1>then you have a built in amount of name. I

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<v Speaker 1>D or a built in amount of recognition that a

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<v Speaker 1>challenger does not have. So when you lengthen the period

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<v Speaker 1>of time over which they've got to compete, in my

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<v Speaker 1>view what it does is it makes it easier for

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<v Speaker 1>the incumbent too to hang on because because, quite frankly,

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<v Speaker 1>you know, the incumbent is already going to have that

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<v Speaker 1>and and it's just that's kind of my view, because

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<v Speaker 1>I think what happens is the incumbent has all of

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<v Speaker 1>the resources and all the ability to communicate over that

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<v Speaker 1>period of time. The challenge is probably still raising money

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<v Speaker 1>right the challenger is still trying to figure out how

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<v Speaker 1>do I get my my name idea out there and

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<v Speaker 1>people are already voting, so it's too late by the

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<v Speaker 1>time that they actually get around the delivering a message.

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<v Speaker 1>So that's my sort of more cynical view. The reasons

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<v Speaker 1>period getting ended is because incumbents can protect themselves. Sometimes

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<v Speaker 1>cynical is just accurate. So the people that are already

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<v Speaker 1>in charge made the rules easier to keep them in charge. Yeah,

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<v Speaker 1>I mean, I look, I think you see it in

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<v Speaker 1>a lot of different places right. I think you see

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<v Speaker 1>it in different states. You know, certainly there is an

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<v Speaker 1>effort underway to make sure that incumbents are, you know,

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<v Speaker 1>more more, more closely enscons, more care lanscons in their positions,

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<v Speaker 1>and I don't think that's necessarily a good thing, but

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<v Speaker 1>I think that incumbents do write the rules and then

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<v Speaker 1>they have the advantage. What's actually gonna be on the

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<v Speaker 1>mind of most voters as they vote, whether they're voting

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<v Speaker 1>today or the first week in November? NBC has done

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<v Speaker 1>this thing with their polling where they break the economy

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<v Speaker 1>into like three different topics, inflation, jobs and something else,

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<v Speaker 1>so that that waters down those numbers and they can

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<v Speaker 1>claim that abortions the number one issue when if you

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<v Speaker 1>put all the economic stuff together, it is far and

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<v Speaker 1>away the number one issue. So what, in your mind,

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<v Speaker 1>is actually going to be the top of mind issues? Who?

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<v Speaker 1>Who Was it that said it's the economy stupid? Was

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<v Speaker 1>that James Carville, the political consultant for Bill Clinton? It

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<v Speaker 1>is always, I think, predominantly, the the economy that drives

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<v Speaker 1>voter decision making, and you know the economy can take

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<v Speaker 1>lots of different forms. Right. I mean to your point.

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<v Speaker 1>Is it that I'm paying a lot more for Gas

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<v Speaker 1>and food? Is it that I feel like my job

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<v Speaker 1>is at risk. Is it that I feel that the

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<v Speaker 1>economic conditions in our country are generally unstable and unsteady?

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<v Speaker 1>Those are all related. Yes, they're separate, specific concerns and

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<v Speaker 1>if you ask someone to put their finger on it,

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<v Speaker 1>is it inflation or is it it's very hard for

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<v Speaker 1>folks to do that. But the reality is it is

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<v Speaker 1>these kitchen table issues. I mean I see it every

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<v Speaker 1>day campaigning all over the state of California. When I

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<v Speaker 1>talk to people, predominantly, I will tell you, like nine

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<v Speaker 1>times out of ten, the first thing someone will tell

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<v Speaker 1>me is, you know what I'm I'm really frustrated with

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<v Speaker 1>how much gas they'll call. I'm really frustrated. I'm really

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<v Speaker 1>I'm really concerned about what's happening with our economy. I

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<v Speaker 1>keep hearing it's slowing down, mortgage rates are soaring, it's

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<v Speaker 1>making it harder for me to afford a house. All

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<v Speaker 1>of these things, these are all related issues. So I

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<v Speaker 1>think the economy, by and by and large, is going

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<v Speaker 1>to be the major issue of this campaign. Yeah, I

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<v Speaker 1>think you're right. I I'm at that point in my

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<v Speaker 1>life where I can, you know, afford to live, but

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<v Speaker 1>I often think about what would I have done when

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<v Speaker 1>I was twenty five. I'm not sure what I would

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<v Speaker 1>have done. I couldna have filled up my car and

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<v Speaker 1>gone to the grocery store. It's crazy. Yeah, well, and

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<v Speaker 1>I think the other piece of it is that people

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<v Speaker 1>look at Um the current conditions, and they just don't

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<v Speaker 1>see him getting better. You know. That's the other thing

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<v Speaker 1>is that it's not like there's a ton of hope

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<v Speaker 1>out there that we're going to see a dramatic end

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<v Speaker 1>to inflation or that interest rates are going to come

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<v Speaker 1>back down, because they're not. I mean interest rates are

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<v Speaker 1>headed in the in the other direction. Right I think

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<v Speaker 1>we're seeing home loan rates for the thirty year. At

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<v Speaker 1>least I heard it was up over six percent, which

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<v Speaker 1>is remarkable and where it was just just, you know,

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<v Speaker 1>twenty four months ago. So I think it's Um. It

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<v Speaker 1>is not just the state of the economy but a

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<v Speaker 1>sense that the people in charge, I don't know what

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<v Speaker 1>they're doing, they're not they're not doing what it takes

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<v Speaker 1>to improve the situation. That that gets me too. It

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<v Speaker 1>is there gonna be a price paid for Joe Biden

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<v Speaker 1>saying things like, you know, like you did on sixty minutes,

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<v Speaker 1>and has in various other Um settings where he says, oh, look, look,

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<v Speaker 1>it was zero, zero. Nobody's feeling like inflation is your own. Yeah,

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<v Speaker 1>I think that the challenge politicians have, particularly people who

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<v Speaker 1>are in office, is, you know, they risk looking like

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<v Speaker 1>they are Um, under selling or under estimating what's happening

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<v Speaker 1>in people's lives. And when you say, for example, I

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<v Speaker 1>mean this whole crop about inflation being transitory, which I

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<v Speaker 1>still I'm not sure who came up with that one,

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<v Speaker 1>but this idea that you know, everything is fine, keep calm,

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<v Speaker 1>the economy is doing fine. The economy is not doing fine.

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<v Speaker 1>All right, the reality is, if you look at the

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<v Speaker 1>economic indicators, there are some serious warning signs that we're

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<v Speaker 1>seeing slowing if you look at a lot of different

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<v Speaker 1>measures that economists used to evaluate whether we're headed toward recession,

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<v Speaker 1>a lot of those things are flashing red right now.

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<v Speaker 1>They're saying, listen, we're going to have a slowdown and

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<v Speaker 1>and labor markets, uh, you know, are still relatively tight,

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<v Speaker 1>but that you know, that could change. And so I

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<v Speaker 1>think the reality is that we are headed for challenging

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<v Speaker 1>economic times and politicians risk looking like they're out of

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<v Speaker 1>touch if they don't acknowledge that. But but if they're

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<v Speaker 1>gonna catch twenty two, Joe Biden's gonna catch twenty two

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<v Speaker 1>because on the one hand he can't really afford to

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<v Speaker 1>say what is the truth, which is that the economy

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<v Speaker 1>is in trouble, because politically he's got to sound like

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<v Speaker 1>a cheerleader. But if you're a cheerleader then you sound

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<v Speaker 1>like you're out of touch. That that's a challenge. That's

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<v Speaker 1>challenge he has. That's a good point. Is Joe Biden

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<v Speaker 1>gonna run again? I don't know. I'm probably the last

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<v Speaker 1>person to aspect because I just I don't I don't

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<v Speaker 1>know enough about the uner workings of that White House

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<v Speaker 1>or the party to know. But I will say this.

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<v Speaker 1>I think there's a lot of people chomping at the

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<v Speaker 1>bit to either to run against him or hoping he

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<v Speaker 1>doesn't run so it opens a pathway. Um. But I

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<v Speaker 1>you know, I mean I don't know. Like I I

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<v Speaker 1>look at him sometimes and I think, Jeez, this is Um.

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<v Speaker 1>Can he make you know, can he really be an

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<v Speaker 1>effective campaigner for another presidential campaign? I mean these things

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<v Speaker 1>are grueling. Yeah and well, and this is not gonna

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<v Speaker 1>be one you can do from your home on zoom.

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<v Speaker 1>Probably you'd actually have to track everything correct. You actually

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<v Speaker 1>have to go out and meet people and you know,

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<v Speaker 1>I think at one point in his career that was

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<v Speaker 1>actually strange. Yeah, absolutely, to get out there and meet

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<v Speaker 1>people and connect with people. I just think it's hard now,

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<v Speaker 1>you know. I mean everybody reaches an age where it's

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<v Speaker 1>it's just a more challenging and his problem is, frankly,

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<v Speaker 1>it's less what Republican he's going to run against, is

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<v Speaker 1>that there's a lot of ambitious Democrats who want to

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<v Speaker 1>take him out, you know, and that's that's his bigger problem.

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<v Speaker 1>Is Gavin gonna run? Boy, sure seems like it. I

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<v Speaker 1>mean he's positioning himself that way and trying to imagine

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<v Speaker 1>why you'd run ads in Florida like that, is the

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<v Speaker 1>governor of California, if you're running for president. You know,

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<v Speaker 1>there's this concept in politics, these politicians call it a

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<v Speaker 1>free shot election, where basically you've got a job and

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<v Speaker 1>so you go and run for something else because it's

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<v Speaker 1>a free shot. And Gavin running for President in twenty

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<v Speaker 1>four is a free shot because he's probably gonna get

0:10:55.440 --> 0:10:58.920
<v Speaker 1>you reelected this fall. And if he gets re elected,

0:10:59.080 --> 0:11:01.520
<v Speaker 1>then what is that mean he has four years right

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<v Speaker 1>as governor, and so two thousand twenty four falls right

0:11:04.280 --> 0:11:06.160
<v Speaker 1>in the middle of that. Why not? Right? It's like

0:11:06.240 --> 0:11:08.800
<v Speaker 1>why not give it a shot? So, you know, I

0:11:08.800 --> 0:11:11.360
<v Speaker 1>think he is in a similar position to others who

0:11:11.679 --> 0:11:13.719
<v Speaker 1>would evaluate and look at it and if they don't

0:11:13.760 --> 0:11:15.840
<v Speaker 1>feel like there's a political price to be paid for

0:11:15.960 --> 0:11:19.240
<v Speaker 1>running against an incumbent president or, in the alternative of

0:11:19.280 --> 0:11:22.600
<v Speaker 1>the incumbent president decides not to run, they may just say, hey,

0:11:22.640 --> 0:11:25.400
<v Speaker 1>why not give it a shot, you know? So I

0:11:25.440 --> 0:11:27.520
<v Speaker 1>don't know. Sometimes it's it's just a way of raising

0:11:27.520 --> 0:11:30.839
<v Speaker 1>their profile nationally too. I'm real close to out of time.

0:11:30.920 --> 0:11:32.319
<v Speaker 1>This is gonna have to be a short answer. Just

0:11:32.400 --> 0:11:38.240
<v Speaker 1>trump run again? I you know, I it's hard for

0:11:38.280 --> 0:11:39.720
<v Speaker 1>me to say. If you'd ask me a couple months ago,

0:11:39.760 --> 0:11:41.280
<v Speaker 1>I would have said yeah, I think he will run.

0:11:41.840 --> 0:11:44.280
<v Speaker 1>Now it's it's it's just a little bit more up

0:11:44.280 --> 0:11:45.679
<v Speaker 1>in the air, but I think if you had to bet,

0:11:45.679 --> 0:11:48.160
<v Speaker 1>I'd say yeah, I think he's gonna run. Interesting. So

0:11:48.200 --> 0:11:51.720
<v Speaker 1>if you live in California, vote for Lawnie Chen for controller,

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<v Speaker 1>because we need that. And if the only times thinks

0:11:54.480 --> 0:11:57.840
<v Speaker 1>it's true, wow, it's really true. Thank you, Lonie. Appreciate

0:11:57.840 --> 0:12:02.280
<v Speaker 1>your time today. Thanks Jack Barn strong and Jetty