WEBVTT - Beating The Book: 2021 NFL MegaPod Week 2 Preview 0:00:03.440 --> 0:00:12.000 Check it on Man Now Down Man Thursday, September six 0:00:13.680 --> 0:00:18.040 podcast Megapod Live from the day back in our old 0:00:18.040 --> 0:00:20.200 stopping grounds here we had to do circle. Huh. We 0:00:20.200 --> 0:00:23.640 we slummed it its circle last week. Mike. Now, we're 0:00:23.640 --> 0:00:26.439 back at the d where we started on its Gil Alexander. 0:00:26.600 --> 0:00:30.080 That's the voice of Mike Palm, Vice President Operations, Circus Sports, 0:00:30.200 --> 0:00:32.600 Derrick Stephen's conciliary. One of the staples of the show. 0:00:32.640 --> 0:00:36.160 Todd Wishnev back in his mom's cork addic back in Pittsburgh. 0:00:36.200 --> 0:00:39.720 P A. Are you knowing, Toddy? You good? I'm good? 0:00:39.920 --> 0:00:42.360 He's watching soccer, he's betting soccer or something. Looks looking 0:00:42.400 --> 0:00:47.400 to the side. Does and our and our guests of 0:00:47.440 --> 0:00:49.080 the day kind enough to come back on the show. 0:00:49.120 --> 0:00:51.760 Always a rotating guest on the megapod. Uh and he 0:00:51.840 --> 0:00:54.840 has become one of the staples. We love having him. Uh. 0:00:54.920 --> 0:00:58.080 Drew Dinsick Ladies and gentlemen from both NBC Sports at 0:00:58.080 --> 0:01:01.000 the Edge podcast and Dinsi clas Sick what he does 0:01:01.080 --> 0:01:03.960 with his buddy Andy Molitor The Deep Dive podcast available 0:01:04.000 --> 0:01:06.600 We're All Podcasts and distributed at Whale Underscore. Capper was 0:01:06.640 --> 0:01:09.800 Hadden and Drew honor the privilege to be back with you, guys. 0:01:09.840 --> 0:01:11.800 Can't wait for this megapod. Love having you. For those 0:01:11.840 --> 0:01:14.479 who were seeing the visuals, Drew actually was here last week. 0:01:14.880 --> 0:01:16.480 We had dinner Withdrew. We had a great time at 0:01:16.480 --> 0:01:19.200 car Bone, but he was at Circus Stadium Swim. Took 0:01:19.240 --> 0:01:22.440 a picture now it's his background, actual picture. He was here. 0:01:22.600 --> 0:01:27.319 Didn't tell me, Oh, I'm sorry. I'm sorry. With all 0:01:27.360 --> 0:01:29.480 the contests going on, in the sign ups going on, 0:01:29.520 --> 0:01:30.880 I didn't want to put more on your plate. But 0:01:30.920 --> 0:01:32.280 I got to meet a lot of your team at 0:01:32.520 --> 0:01:35.720 Circa bet. Jeff Benson and company took great, great, great 0:01:35.760 --> 0:01:38.160 care of us on Sunday and in general I'm not 0:01:38.319 --> 0:01:41.320 easily impressed. Um, but what they have going on right now, 0:01:41.400 --> 0:01:44.640 Circus Book, Circus Sports, between the book and Stadium Swim, 0:01:44.680 --> 0:01:46.840 I mean they absolutely knocked it out of the park. 0:01:46.880 --> 0:01:49.440 That was such a joy to be there as a 0:01:49.440 --> 0:01:51.480 as a sports fan in it as a better uh 0:01:51.520 --> 0:01:53.920 and I cannot wait to go back. What a great commercial. 0:01:53.920 --> 0:01:56.040 First we should wreck that wreck that what Rome needs 0:01:56.120 --> 0:01:58.600 to say. Racket. By the way, how nice is Jeff 0:01:58.600 --> 0:02:05.000 Benson Drew? He was unbelievably nice and and and really 0:02:05.000 --> 0:02:06.760 though the Risk team. We had drinks with them on 0:02:06.800 --> 0:02:10.520 Thursday after the Bucks game. Um and those guys were 0:02:10.520 --> 0:02:14.000 all great. Got to meet Glenn and uh and Dylan 0:02:14.200 --> 0:02:16.000 and there were a couple of guys there as well, 0:02:16.040 --> 0:02:19.000 all just the absolutely solid crew. I I gotta tell 0:02:19.040 --> 0:02:21.919 you about Jeff Benson. You know this Saturday that before 0:02:22.000 --> 0:02:24.240 the NFL starts Week one, it's got to be one 0:02:24.280 --> 0:02:26.480 of the worst days for him of the year because 0:02:26.520 --> 0:02:28.639 of how he gets abused by all the people one 0:02:28.720 --> 0:02:31.200 that missed getting into the contest or two miss getting 0:02:31.200 --> 0:02:33.079 their picks in a Week one. He does get abused. 0:02:33.080 --> 0:02:35.440 He was absolutely got abused by people that we had 0:02:35.480 --> 0:02:37.960 to actually throw out of the casino because of what 0:02:38.040 --> 0:02:39.640 I mean. They call him everything but a white man. 0:02:39.720 --> 0:02:43.920 It's absolutely ridiculous. People came at to thirty to get 0:02:44.000 --> 0:02:47.400 in the contest. He came at to thirty to get 0:02:47.440 --> 0:02:48.840 in the contest. He said, you had to get in 0:02:48.880 --> 0:02:50.359 by two. Why you don't have to get the picks 0:02:50.360 --> 0:02:52.919 into three. They called the Gaming Commission on us because 0:02:52.919 --> 0:02:54.440 they said, if you can have to get the picks 0:02:54.440 --> 0:02:56.640 into three, you can get into the contest. Till three 0:02:56.840 --> 0:02:58.880 he had, he got interviewed by the Gaming Board at 0:02:58.880 --> 0:03:01.280 eight o'clock at night Saturdayay night because of this complaint. 0:03:02.880 --> 0:03:05.240 I mean, it's and it's so clearly, and we only 0:03:05.280 --> 0:03:08.440 talked about it for months and months. It's everywhere. It's course, 0:03:10.080 --> 0:03:14.440 oh man, people, right, Todd people, they're the worst. They're 0:03:14.440 --> 0:03:19.119 the worst, worst invention ever, worst invention ever. At this time, 0:03:19.520 --> 0:03:21.040 at this time, I would, I would, I would ask 0:03:21.120 --> 0:03:24.120 Drew what those Circle folks said about my particular case. 0:03:24.120 --> 0:03:25.839 But I don't want to have Drew talk out of turn. 0:03:25.880 --> 0:03:28.080 But let's just say they're in agreement with me in 0:03:28.080 --> 0:03:32.799 my little case. Um, would that be a fair characterization? Yes? No, yes, yeah, 0:03:32.800 --> 0:03:35.840 I mean that was again I'm a biased audience, so 0:03:35.880 --> 0:03:37.480 maybe they were just telling me what I wanted to hear. 0:03:37.520 --> 0:03:40.360 But we were install agreement across everyone. I talked to 0:03:40.400 --> 0:03:42.760 the industry that that Jeff Benson thing. Though, it's like 0:03:42.800 --> 0:03:45.040 it's clearly their fault for not putting them in. But 0:03:45.080 --> 0:03:48.280 it's amazing human beings transferring their their anger, you know, 0:03:48.360 --> 0:03:50.680 irrationally to the poor kid. And he's such a nice guy, 0:03:51.000 --> 0:03:53.760 such a nice guy. All right, let's start this. Are 0:03:53.760 --> 0:03:56.480 you eating? Are you eating today, I fastening. It is 0:03:56.480 --> 0:04:02.000 the day of Atonement. Really so religious. I'm religious. I'm 0:04:02.040 --> 0:04:04.120 the least religious person ever. This is a tribute to 0:04:04.200 --> 0:04:07.600 my father, right, This is tribute to my father. This 0:04:07.680 --> 0:04:10.080 is what he did every year, and I want as 0:04:10.160 --> 0:04:13.280 my own little way of attributing my father, this is 0:04:13.320 --> 0:04:16.360 what I do. So please, well keep your thoughts. I mean, look, 0:04:16.400 --> 0:04:18.159 I'm not gonna say you don't need to skip a 0:04:18.160 --> 0:04:20.000 couple of meals, so you know it's not the end 0:04:20.000 --> 0:04:24.479 of the I've always heard. I've always heard fasting brings 0:04:24.520 --> 0:04:26.440 on a little clairvoyance. So I can't wait to hear 0:04:26.440 --> 0:04:28.240 what your takes. Oh, thank you. I didn't know that 0:04:28.320 --> 0:04:31.120 was a side uh side effective fasting. I hope some 0:04:31.160 --> 0:04:34.240 clairvoyance will come. Uh that said, I wasn't very clairvoyant 0:04:34.320 --> 0:04:36.640 last week. Todd the records from last week as the 0:04:37.200 --> 0:04:41.680 as the podcast stenographer. Yes, as the podcast stenographer. Me 0:04:41.760 --> 0:04:44.520 and Mikey got robbed of going three and oh we 0:04:44.680 --> 0:04:47.640 both went two and one and we had over fifty 0:04:47.680 --> 0:04:49.760 two in that Arizona and they had fifty one at 0:04:49.760 --> 0:04:51.720 the end of three quarters and we were robbed. We 0:04:51.720 --> 0:04:53.279 should have had a three note. But me and Mikey 0:04:53.279 --> 0:04:56.200 both went two and one. Gilly the iceman went one 0:04:56.240 --> 0:04:59.040 and two. But all three of us hit the teasers. 0:04:59.080 --> 0:05:01.359 I didn't get robbed on the Damien Harris fumble. That 0:05:01.400 --> 0:05:05.040 wasn't robbery. You just want to robbery. One second, we 0:05:05.080 --> 0:05:09.640 can discuss robberies properly. Very easily. New England could have 0:05:09.680 --> 0:05:11.200 kicked the field goal at the end and you would 0:05:11.240 --> 0:05:13.200 have won by two very easily. You could have not 0:05:13.560 --> 0:05:15.360 very easily. You could have not scored fifty one and 0:05:15.400 --> 0:05:17.360 a half points, which is what happened. You're saying, So 0:05:17.400 --> 0:05:19.360 you're saying that has the same chances. There's no one 0:05:19.440 --> 0:05:21.320 scoring anything in the whole fourth quarter of a game. 0:05:21.320 --> 0:05:23.760 They already had fifty one, and you're actually, I am, actually, 0:05:23.760 --> 0:05:25.240 I am. I had first and ten at the eleven. 0:05:25.520 --> 0:05:28.000 You want to run the win probabilities on those, I'm 0:05:28.000 --> 0:05:30.640 going to respectfully disagree with you. I'm gonna call Michael 0:05:30.640 --> 0:05:35.680 Lombardi and we're gonna get the actual percentage problem. All right, Well, 0:05:35.680 --> 0:05:39.120 how did Brady do? Brady was wanted to Also, you 0:05:39.160 --> 0:05:41.599 don't realistic yet, Yeah, Brady was one day. You don't 0:05:41.600 --> 0:05:46.480 realistically think that New England covering they're needing a touchdown 0:05:46.560 --> 0:05:48.800 and to stop the Dolphins the other way is the 0:05:48.839 --> 0:05:51.440 same as having fifty one after three quarters. Do you 0:05:51.480 --> 0:05:53.520 really uh yeah, I'd have to see the play by 0:05:53.520 --> 0:05:55.440 play on your quarter. I don't know, I don't know. 0:05:55.480 --> 0:05:57.040 I don't know what the answer is. I was first 0:05:57.040 --> 0:05:59.440 intended the eleven. All I needed was one game in, 0:05:59.520 --> 0:06:01.919 one stop up. That's what is the percentage of getting 0:06:01.960 --> 0:06:03.920 it in on first Todd run? The numbers get I 0:06:03.920 --> 0:06:05.880 don't have a number for you, but I don't think 0:06:05.920 --> 0:06:08.839 it's as the numbers were much closer. No, it's not 0:06:08.880 --> 0:06:10.320 as cut and dry as you think it is. By 0:06:10.360 --> 0:06:12.360 the way, it's one point. Yeah, the live the live 0:06:12.440 --> 0:06:16.760 line was outside of three for me. Yeah, exactly. No. No, 0:06:16.920 --> 0:06:19.560 And like I'm like, like the live number on the 0:06:19.560 --> 0:06:22.800 board was was outside of three. Correct. So you're saying, 0:06:23.000 --> 0:06:24.360 that's what you're saying. You're saying the bet the in 0:06:24.480 --> 0:06:26.880 game betting market was on my side of things. Yeah, 0:06:26.880 --> 0:06:29.240 that's what I'm saying for you to Todd. But that's 0:06:29.240 --> 0:06:30.840 what I'm saying. It's like neither one of us was 0:06:30.880 --> 0:06:33.360 an underdog. You're acting like I was so much more 0:06:33.360 --> 0:06:35.200 of a dog than you. You're in about No. I 0:06:35.200 --> 0:06:37.599 would put you in about a fifty fifty there and 0:06:37.640 --> 0:06:39.559 I would put us in about like an eight twenty. 0:06:39.720 --> 0:06:41.640 Either way, they didn't work out. I ended up one 0:06:41.640 --> 0:06:44.720 and two and you ended up to and one. Bottom 0:06:44.720 --> 0:06:46.480 line is me and Mike you're two and one, you're 0:06:46.520 --> 0:06:48.839 one and two. Just let's move on. I don't you 0:06:48.839 --> 0:06:51.560 think I just said that? Uh? And everybody hit their teasers, right, 0:06:51.600 --> 0:06:54.560 everybody hit their teeth as I mentioned, were all one 0:06:54.640 --> 0:06:59.080 to know on the teasers. Okay, all right, it's no 0:06:59.120 --> 0:07:01.920 doubt even mikey. Uh. This is the time of year 0:07:01.920 --> 0:07:04.200 where we always talk about who didn't get their entries 0:07:04.200 --> 0:07:06.960 in and both millions in circus even before week one 0:07:07.000 --> 0:07:09.920 we had this happen. Yeah. I set the number for 0:07:10.080 --> 0:07:12.680 Survivor at twelve and a half and I was I 0:07:12.720 --> 0:07:15.239 was high. And I'm surprised because we had three times 0:07:15.240 --> 0:07:16.920 as many entries as last year, and I think we 0:07:16.960 --> 0:07:19.040 had eleven the first week. Didn't put him in. What 0:07:19.080 --> 0:07:22.080 was the total number of entries? Okay. What's what's unbelievable 0:07:22.160 --> 0:07:24.480 is how close to two contests were circu Mallions got 0:07:24.480 --> 0:07:28.160 four thousand eighty seven. Survivor got four thousand eighty. Wow, 0:07:28.200 --> 0:07:31.800 the difference from seven that is oncanny, right. I keep 0:07:31.840 --> 0:07:34.760 reminding Derek gently that in this meeting where we decided 0:07:34.800 --> 0:07:38.080 the rules and the guarantee, I had him convinced to 0:07:38.160 --> 0:07:40.200 do four million, four million and do eight million, and 0:07:40.200 --> 0:07:42.640 then he said, oh no, he just I changed my mind. 0:07:42.640 --> 0:07:45.200 Eight millions not sexy enough. Let's do ten million. Do 0:07:45.240 --> 0:07:50.760 you ever have a hie? But what was sexy about 0:07:50.760 --> 0:07:53.440 one point five million two years ago? That's not sexy? 0:07:53.840 --> 0:07:58.560 Do you agree with anything? Ten million versus eight million sexier? 0:07:59.120 --> 0:08:01.160 And was going to win in the fourth quarter and 0:08:01.880 --> 0:08:06.760 bo So we had eight people out of the four 0:08:06.840 --> 0:08:09.520 thousand eighty didn't get their survivor pick. Yet twenty one 0:08:09.720 --> 0:08:12.119 out of the four thousand eighties seven didn't submit picks 0:08:12.120 --> 0:08:15.320 in the circummedians, which they're disqualified from the year long 0:08:15.560 --> 0:08:17.880 Booby Prize because you have to put every pick and 0:08:18.000 --> 0:08:20.080 to win the Booby Prize. Yeah, they could win a 0:08:20.160 --> 0:08:22.720 quarterly movie prize later, but they can't win the year long. 0:08:23.200 --> 0:08:25.480 I went two in three and millions. The falcons like 0:08:25.640 --> 0:08:27.600 like in on the Megapod got me. That was a 0:08:27.680 --> 0:08:29.760 terrible pick. In New England got me with the fumble. 0:08:29.880 --> 0:08:32.040 Was it a terrible pick or did they just played terrible? 0:08:32.520 --> 0:08:34.559 I agreed with Brady I in Live life. I bet 0:08:34.600 --> 0:08:37.319 the falcons as well. Yeah, I mean they have got 0:08:37.360 --> 0:08:39.160 me too, and it is a terrible pick. How many 0:08:39.160 --> 0:08:42.000 times did I say Matt Ryan sucks and we should 0:08:42.040 --> 0:08:44.880 stop with this Matt Ryan nonsense. I'm tired of this guy. 0:08:45.000 --> 0:08:47.960 I'm tired. There's the first scream on the show. Yeah. 0:08:48.480 --> 0:08:50.600 There was a hundred and ninety six people that went 0:08:50.800 --> 0:08:53.000 or entries that went five and oh in week one 0:08:53.040 --> 0:08:56.040 and my partner am All Shaw, whose motto is I'd 0:08:56.120 --> 0:08:58.120 rather be piste off than piste on, is one of 0:08:58.160 --> 0:09:02.440 them went five? Yeah? Alright, Animal Show? Uh and then 0:09:02.600 --> 0:09:05.000 uh survivor how many people got eliminated out of the 0:09:05.080 --> 0:09:09.520 four thousand and eight it was seventeen percent, sixteen point 0:09:09.600 --> 0:09:13.200 seven percent. The fifth most popular through ninth most popular 0:09:13.240 --> 0:09:16.319 picks all got eliminated, but not one to three or four. No, 0:09:16.400 --> 0:09:19.000 one to three or four survive, but fifth. Which was 0:09:19.000 --> 0:09:20.640 shocked to me when I looked at it, was that 0:09:20.640 --> 0:09:23.360 the Jacksonville Jaguars were the fifth most popular pick and 0:09:23.360 --> 0:09:25.840 it wasn't that double option. Derek's talking about taking book 0:09:25.840 --> 0:09:28.520 because only fifteen people took the text, but a hundred 0:09:28.559 --> 0:09:33.400 sixty seven people, and then the Vikings Atlanta, the Patriots 0:09:33.440 --> 0:09:35.160 down the list of the next time was I was 0:09:35.240 --> 0:09:38.480 more surprised that the number one most popular picking circum 0:09:38.520 --> 0:09:41.800 millions was the was the Washington football team. I didn't 0:09:41.880 --> 0:09:45.480 understand that. I didn't understand it either. They bet them 0:09:45.480 --> 0:09:49.559 like that they had they and the game wasn't even 0:09:49.640 --> 0:09:53.240 that close. I mean, it's very weird the Chargers. The 0:09:53.320 --> 0:09:55.840 Chargers went two for but the Charges went two for 0:09:55.920 --> 0:09:59.280 six in the red zone. Todd on third down, I 0:09:59.280 --> 0:10:02.600 mean that that's fair. That's fair saying that when they 0:10:02.640 --> 0:10:06.040 were up sixty, had the ball, the Redskins would have 0:10:06.040 --> 0:10:08.160 won the game. They could have who could have won 0:10:08.200 --> 0:10:11.960 the game? Football team, whatever the game is. Sorry, Todd, 0:10:12.000 --> 0:10:14.320 I think you need to reevaluate your red zone analysis, 0:10:15.720 --> 0:10:17.880 both in the Washington game, in the Miami game, what 0:10:17.920 --> 0:10:19.640 was the red zone? And now in that one. I 0:10:19.679 --> 0:10:21.760 just said they abled to consider it for the Chargers 0:10:21.800 --> 0:10:24.880 Washington game. When you said, oh, Washington should have won, no, 0:10:25.000 --> 0:10:28.040 I said, they had the ball up sixteen thirteen, and 0:10:28.080 --> 0:10:30.440 they fumbled the ball away inside their own tent and 0:10:30.480 --> 0:10:32.880 gave him the game. Now, obviously the Chargers could have 0:10:32.880 --> 0:10:35.080 won the game. I'm just saying, and maybe should have 0:10:35.080 --> 0:10:37.240 won the game. The point is at sixteen thirteen, at 0:10:37.240 --> 0:10:39.360 that point, they had all the momentum and the football 0:10:39.640 --> 0:10:42.839 and they're at home, and Heineke is better than uh 0:10:42.920 --> 0:10:47.280 Ryan Fitzpatrick at this point, I guess. And wow, all 0:10:47.360 --> 0:10:51.199 I'm saying is looked all right. I was surprised. I 0:10:52.120 --> 0:10:54.440 have no problem with Heineke. Let's start with a Thursday 0:10:54.480 --> 0:10:56.400 night game. Since we segue to that, Drew will start 0:10:56.440 --> 0:10:59.920 with you Thursday night football, a barn burner between washing 0:11:00.040 --> 0:11:02.720 and in the Giants Washington three and a half point favorites, 0:11:02.880 --> 0:11:06.760 the total down to forty and a half. I um, 0:11:06.880 --> 0:11:09.400 I guess this morning there'll be less than five totals, 0:11:10.240 --> 0:11:12.640 fewer than five totals less than that the rest of 0:11:12.679 --> 0:11:14.960 the year, but we'll see. Uh do you have a 0:11:14.960 --> 0:11:18.400 play on this game? Uh? Yeah, I played into the 0:11:18.400 --> 0:11:21.400 opener on the total under forty two and a half. 0:11:22.160 --> 0:11:25.959 Most of my thought process was pretty straightforward here. Um, 0:11:26.080 --> 0:11:28.600 you have Taylor Heineke on a short week. What does 0:11:28.640 --> 0:11:31.880 that mean? Well, Uh, typically when you have a compressed 0:11:32.240 --> 0:11:35.920 schedule for preparing your offensive game plan. Uh, it is 0:11:35.960 --> 0:11:39.280 imperative that you use the prior week to get as 0:11:39.360 --> 0:11:41.600 much you know, get as much into the you know, 0:11:41.800 --> 0:11:44.920 as made wrinkles as possible in before you get to 0:11:44.920 --> 0:11:46.720 that Thursday night football game. And the fact that you 0:11:46.760 --> 0:11:49.640 have now a replacement level quarterback means anything that Washington 0:11:49.720 --> 0:11:52.800 prepared for in the preseason goes out the window and 0:11:52.840 --> 0:11:54.480 they have to on the fly come up with a 0:11:54.520 --> 0:11:56.880 game plan to attack what does I think at least 0:11:57.360 --> 0:11:59.720 a more stout defense with the Giants than what we 0:11:59.760 --> 0:12:03.280 saw against the Denver Broncos. So ultimately, I don't know 0:12:03.320 --> 0:12:06.440 how Washington goes score for score if the Giants even 0:12:06.559 --> 0:12:10.240 have anywhere close to uh life, you know, and in 0:12:10.280 --> 0:12:14.440 their offensive look um, and you get to basically taking 0:12:14.480 --> 0:12:16.559 the under. You get to fade the rookie quarterback on 0:12:16.600 --> 0:12:18.360 the short week as well as Jason Garrett on a 0:12:18.440 --> 0:12:22.000 short week, So it both both worked for me. Washington 0:12:22.120 --> 0:12:24.000 last week gave up a fifteen play drive with the 0:12:24.080 --> 0:12:26.120 Chargers that ran out the last six forty three of 0:12:26.160 --> 0:12:28.439 the game, couldn't get them off the field. Chargers were 0:12:28.480 --> 0:12:32.880 fourteen of nineteen on on third downs. Daniel Jones fumbled 0:12:32.880 --> 0:12:34.680 inside the red zone with the Giants driving late in 0:12:34.679 --> 0:12:36.640 the third quarter down seventeen to seven, when the game 0:12:36.679 --> 0:12:39.120 was still in the balance against Denver for Daniel Jones 0:12:39.240 --> 0:12:43.040 his NFL worst eighteen fumbles loss since entering the NFL 0:12:43.040 --> 0:12:45.959 in twenty nineteen. Matt Brown, my co host on Primetime 0:12:46.000 --> 0:12:49.600 Action on MSG plus, said he heard in great moments, 0:12:49.600 --> 0:12:53.040 in horrible use of trends history, he heard somebody throwing 0:12:53.080 --> 0:12:55.520 out the stat He goes, uh, Daniel Jones. He gave 0:12:55.559 --> 0:12:57.640 all the Janiel Daniel Jones fumbles, lost that and the other. 0:12:57.880 --> 0:13:00.840 But he's never fumbled against Washington. And you know there's 0:13:00.880 --> 0:13:02.640 some people who are gonna hear that and be like, 0:13:02.679 --> 0:13:06.120 oh wait a minute, he holds the ball tighter against Washington. 0:13:06.120 --> 0:13:10.599 Apparently some of these trend things are ludicrous. They're ludicrous. 0:13:10.800 --> 0:13:13.400 You know. We had some people like I like Greg 0:13:13.480 --> 0:13:16.200 mcelroyal lot as an analyst right as he knows his betting. 0:13:16.280 --> 0:13:18.440 He knows betting, and I think he's good on the games. 0:13:18.480 --> 0:13:20.520 But we had him on and he he wants He 0:13:20.559 --> 0:13:23.880 said Clemson was to play against Georgia, and his chief 0:13:23.960 --> 0:13:27.360 reason was in matchup of top five teams all time, 0:13:27.800 --> 0:13:30.040 Clemson is six and one in Georgia's three and ten, 0:13:30.120 --> 0:13:32.199 I said, what is what? What is what Mark Rick 0:13:32.280 --> 0:13:34.679 did with forty different kids ten years ago? Or have 0:13:35.000 --> 0:13:37.839 anything to do with this group of people That can't 0:13:37.840 --> 0:13:40.720 be that, that can't be relevant to this game. College 0:13:40.720 --> 0:13:44.439 has become Mike, Mike or Todd anything about this game tonight? 0:13:44.480 --> 0:13:46.720 I am staying clear. I'd like to make a comment 0:13:46.840 --> 0:13:50.360 from a survivor perspective. Yes, you think Washington's a pick tonight, 0:13:50.480 --> 0:13:52.480 I think you have to think about using it because 0:13:52.480 --> 0:13:56.360 of this damn Christmas rule. Right, You would think Cleveland 0:13:56.360 --> 0:13:58.280 and green Bay would be Survivor picks, but don't you 0:13:58.320 --> 0:14:00.560 have to save them to see what happens that Chris here? 0:14:00.840 --> 0:14:02.439 Is that too far away? Here's the thing about the 0:14:02.760 --> 0:14:05.480 green Bay part of that. Green Bay has a really 0:14:05.520 --> 0:14:09.400 tough game on Christmas, right, Like, you wouldn't pick them anyway. 0:14:09.480 --> 0:14:12.280 So the notion that you should be saving green Bay 0:14:12.360 --> 0:14:15.720 unless you can foresee an injury, right is kind of 0:14:16.320 --> 0:14:19.920 ludicrous to me. But to your point, these two segments 0:14:19.920 --> 0:14:23.680 of three games, Thanksgiving and Christmas, they're all up. The 0:14:23.680 --> 0:14:27.600 biggest number is Dallison and Oakland on Thanksgiving, which is 0:14:27.640 --> 0:14:29.800 not that clear of a game either, but right, so, 0:14:29.880 --> 0:14:31.880 I mean they're tough games. I got into I got 0:14:31.920 --> 0:14:34.720 into it with the yesterday shock. I can't believe that. 0:14:35.080 --> 0:14:38.120 We were talking about the notion of multiple entries and 0:14:38.200 --> 0:14:40.680 survivor and multiple entries, and then I said to him, 0:14:40.680 --> 0:14:44.320 I go, multiple entries my position. You can agree or disagree. 0:14:44.440 --> 0:14:48.200 I go, yes, your your probability of winning gets incrementally. 0:14:48.600 --> 0:14:50.800 He couldn't figure. He doesn't matter how many time to said, 0:14:50.840 --> 0:14:52.360 until he goes, well, he keeps coming back to you 0:14:52.440 --> 0:14:53.960 think it's the same amount of you have six entries 0:14:54.000 --> 0:14:55.120 one and I go, it's not what I said. I'll 0:14:55.120 --> 0:14:57.480 say it for a fifth time. Uh, it's incrementally better. 0:14:57.520 --> 0:14:59.160 But what I what I The point I was trying 0:14:59.200 --> 0:15:02.240 to make is the notion of having extra entries and 0:15:02.280 --> 0:15:06.720 survivor is actually less of a thing than people make 0:15:06.760 --> 0:15:09.360 it out to be. Because ultimately saying it's not six 0:15:09.400 --> 0:15:14.640 times more correct correct because well, he didn't get that point, 0:15:14.920 --> 0:15:18.120 so he What I'm saying is people end up playing 0:15:18.160 --> 0:15:23.320 those extra entries differently inevitably than they would their final one. 0:15:23.920 --> 0:15:27.480 And so in practice, while it sounds like a good thing, 0:15:27.480 --> 0:15:30.160 I hated myself immediately when about five entries because I 0:15:30.280 --> 0:15:33.680 know that eventually those four, in addition to the one 0:15:33.720 --> 0:15:35.520 that makes it the furthest, they're going to slough off 0:15:35.600 --> 0:15:37.360 because I'm not gonna play all five the same one, 0:15:37.400 --> 0:15:38.960 because that's the other way to say, are you playing 0:15:39.000 --> 0:15:40.640 all five the same way? If the answer is no, 0:15:40.960 --> 0:15:44.160 then my point is made. Then you're playing it differently 0:15:44.200 --> 0:15:48.120 than you would have optimally. That's all. But you think 0:15:48.120 --> 0:15:50.320 Washington doesn't play that, I think you have to consider them. 0:15:50.320 --> 0:15:52.800 I think the Giants are that bad. I was. I 0:15:52.880 --> 0:15:55.800 was thoroughly disgusted with the giants performance. I like Denver 0:15:55.880 --> 0:15:58.160 all week. I bet them when they were one and 0:15:58.240 --> 0:16:00.320 a half about a month ago because I and whine, 0:16:00.280 --> 0:16:01.840 I don't want to lay a field goal on the road. 0:16:01.880 --> 0:16:03.720 I played the game under I didn't think the Giant 0:16:04.000 --> 0:16:05.640 it's like the Giants. They got a touchdown on the 0:16:05.720 --> 0:16:07.320 last play of the game. I mean that the game 0:16:07.400 --> 0:16:09.280 was out of reach. I didn't feel that there was 0:16:09.320 --> 0:16:11.360 any point in that game where Denver wasn't in control 0:16:11.400 --> 0:16:15.040 of it with the quarterback when it was seventeen seven 0:16:15.040 --> 0:16:20.760 and the Giants were inside. But they still want no, No, Mike, 0:16:20.840 --> 0:16:22.440 you weren't gonna win the game. I agree with you. 0:16:22.480 --> 0:16:24.320 The Giants were not going to win the game. Denver 0:16:24.440 --> 0:16:26.400 was gonna win the game. And by the way, Teddy 0:16:26.440 --> 0:16:30.920 two gloves is a great game manager. Don't blow the 0:16:30.960 --> 0:16:35.520 game well, he is fantastic. He fits the teams the team, 0:16:35.600 --> 0:16:39.520 he fits his head coaches, hippocratic view of the quarterback position. First, 0:16:39.560 --> 0:16:44.040 do no harm and I will not speak up my uh. 0:16:44.240 --> 0:16:46.480 And by the way, people people joke about, they don't 0:16:46.560 --> 0:16:49.200 understand in the NFL it's more important not to lose 0:16:49.240 --> 0:16:52.200 the game than to win the games. Such a good point. 0:16:52.320 --> 0:16:53.600 But let me just say this, and we gotta get 0:16:53.600 --> 0:16:55.480 to our best best because Mike, he's on a schedule here, 0:16:55.520 --> 0:16:57.320 but we because you gotta do the nuts. By the way, 0:16:59.480 --> 0:17:02.880 the name it is official now, Odds who came up 0:17:02.880 --> 0:17:05.800 with that name? That was my first choice, odds On 0:17:06.080 --> 0:17:08.720 back in December when we were talking about this show, 0:17:08.840 --> 0:17:12.400 and Bill ad marketing guru said, oh, we we can't 0:17:12.440 --> 0:17:14.880 protect it, Odds Shark will sue us this and that. 0:17:15.440 --> 0:17:17.359 So then when they decided they wanted to go away 0:17:17.359 --> 0:17:20.280 from the Nuts, they had all these choices and I'm 0:17:20.280 --> 0:17:22.320 all sent in choices and I said, I still like 0:17:22.400 --> 0:17:24.520 my original odds on Bill Goes. That's a great name. 0:17:24.560 --> 0:17:27.040 That's what we're gonna call it. I said, Bill, you said, no, 0:17:27.080 --> 0:17:28.840 that it's on he Goes. No, I never heard of 0:17:28.880 --> 0:17:32.480 that name, I said, I have the emails. Surprise you 0:17:32.480 --> 0:17:34.520 guys didn't come up with a numbers game with the 0:17:34.640 --> 0:17:37.640 Z instead of an s now that would That would 0:17:37.640 --> 0:17:39.760 have been the move. Last thing before we get the 0:17:39.760 --> 0:17:41.560 best bets about the Broncos. Back to the Broncos for 0:17:41.640 --> 0:17:44.840 second draft kings. So good on draft kings. They do 0:17:44.840 --> 0:17:47.320 adjusted season win totals after every week, and they did 0:17:47.400 --> 0:17:49.760 it after week one and every so I've been on 0:17:49.800 --> 0:17:53.560 these off the grid stock market like you know, very 0:17:53.640 --> 0:17:57.160 illegal uh things for years and years and years where 0:17:57.200 --> 0:17:59.480 I bet season win totals in football when they weren't 0:17:59.480 --> 0:18:02.399 around and realized jurisdictions, uh, and they were just there 0:18:02.440 --> 0:18:04.160 was a buy price in a cell price. It actually 0:18:04.200 --> 0:18:06.119 started at Lehman Brothers. It was the biggest thing in 0:18:06.160 --> 0:18:08.080 the world. I don't play it anymore. And now in 0:18:08.160 --> 0:18:10.520 legalized jurisdictions, although we don't have buy and sell prices, 0:18:10.680 --> 0:18:12.640 we have these adjusted so good on them for that. 0:18:13.040 --> 0:18:15.080 And usually what happens is if you win a game 0:18:15.080 --> 0:18:16.560 you're not supposed to write. If you win a game 0:18:16.560 --> 0:18:18.199 as a dog, or if you lose the game as 0:18:18.240 --> 0:18:21.400 a favorite, your number gets adjusted more than otherwise makes 0:18:21.400 --> 0:18:26.680 sense intuitively, the Broncos at Draft Kings their season win 0:18:26.800 --> 0:18:29.359 total after beating the Giants, a game they were favorite, 0:18:29.359 --> 0:18:31.719 in a game they were supposed to win, got adjusted 0:18:32.040 --> 0:18:35.199 all the way to ten and a half. Yes, So 0:18:35.240 --> 0:18:37.240 I talked about it last night on Prime Time from 0:18:37.240 --> 0:18:39.080 eight and a half. It was seven and a half 0:18:39.080 --> 0:18:40.280 in the middle of the summer, eight and a half 0:18:40.320 --> 0:18:42.119 before the season. So I talked about on Prime Time 0:18:42.200 --> 0:18:43.720 last night. I talked about on a numbers game this 0:18:43.760 --> 0:18:46.920 morning that to me right now is the best bet 0:18:46.920 --> 0:18:49.000 on the board minus one ten under ten and a 0:18:49.040 --> 0:18:51.240 half on the Broncs that much in the other three 0:18:51.240 --> 0:18:53.439 teams in their Division one. It's not like anything was 0:18:53.480 --> 0:18:56.119