Speaker 1: Check it on Man Now Down Man Thursday, September six
Speaker 1: podcast Megapod Live from the day back in our old
Speaker 1: stopping grounds here we had to do circle. Huh. We
Speaker 1: we slummed it its circle last week. Mike. Now, we're
Speaker 1: back at the d where we started on its Gil Alexander.
Speaker 1: That's the voice of Mike Palm, Vice President Operations, Circus Sports,
Speaker 1: Derrick Stephen's conciliary. One of the staples of the show.
Speaker 1: Todd Wishnev back in his mom's cork addic back in Pittsburgh.
Speaker 1: P A. Are you knowing, Toddy? You good? I'm good?
Speaker 1: He's watching soccer, he's betting soccer or something. Looks looking
Speaker 1: to the side. Does and our and our guests of
Speaker 1: the day kind enough to come back on the show.
Speaker 1: Always a rotating guest on the megapod. Uh and he
Speaker 1: has become one of the staples. We love having him. Uh.
Speaker 1: Drew Dinsick Ladies and gentlemen from both NBC Sports at
Speaker 1: the Edge podcast and Dinsi clas Sick what he does
Speaker 1: with his buddy Andy Molitor The Deep Dive podcast available
Speaker 1: We're All Podcasts and distributed at Whale Underscore. Capper was
Speaker 1: Hadden and Drew honor the privilege to be back with you, guys.
Speaker 1: Can't wait for this megapod. Love having you. For those
Speaker 1: who were seeing the visuals, Drew actually was here last week.
Speaker 1: We had dinner Withdrew. We had a great time at
Speaker 1: car Bone, but he was at Circus Stadium Swim. Took
Speaker 1: a picture now it's his background, actual picture. He was here.
Speaker 1: Didn't tell me, Oh, I'm sorry. I'm sorry. With all
Speaker 1: the contests going on, in the sign ups going on,
Speaker 1: I didn't want to put more on your plate. But
Speaker 1: I got to meet a lot of your team at
Speaker 1: Circa bet. Jeff Benson and company took great, great, great
Speaker 1: care of us on Sunday and in general I'm not
Speaker 1: easily impressed. Um, but what they have going on right now,
Speaker 1: Circus Book, Circus Sports, between the book and Stadium Swim,
Speaker 1: I mean they absolutely knocked it out of the park.
Speaker 1: That was such a joy to be there as a
Speaker 1: as a sports fan in it as a better uh
Speaker 1: and I cannot wait to go back. What a great commercial.
Speaker 1: First we should wreck that wreck that what Rome needs
Speaker 1: to say. Racket. By the way, how nice is Jeff
Speaker 1: Benson Drew? He was unbelievably nice and and and really
Speaker 1: though the Risk team. We had drinks with them on
Speaker 1: Thursday after the Bucks game. Um and those guys were
Speaker 1: all great. Got to meet Glenn and uh and Dylan
Speaker 1: and there were a couple of guys there as well,
Speaker 1: all just the absolutely solid crew. I I gotta tell
Speaker 1: you about Jeff Benson. You know this Saturday that before
Speaker 1: the NFL starts Week one, it's got to be one
Speaker 1: of the worst days for him of the year because
Speaker 1: of how he gets abused by all the people one
Speaker 1: that missed getting into the contest or two miss getting
Speaker 1: their picks in a Week one. He does get abused.
Speaker 1: He was absolutely got abused by people that we had
Speaker 1: to actually throw out of the casino because of what
Speaker 1: I mean. They call him everything but a white man.
Speaker 1: It's absolutely ridiculous. People came at to thirty to get
Speaker 1: in the contest. He came at to thirty to get
Speaker 1: in the contest. He said, you had to get in
Speaker 1: by two. Why you don't have to get the picks
Speaker 1: into three. They called the Gaming Commission on us because
Speaker 1: they said, if you can have to get the picks
Speaker 1: into three, you can get into the contest. Till three
Speaker 1: he had, he got interviewed by the Gaming Board at
Speaker 1: eight o'clock at night Saturdayay night because of this complaint.
Speaker 1: I mean, it's and it's so clearly, and we only
Speaker 1: talked about it for months and months. It's everywhere. It's course,
Speaker 1: oh man, people, right, Todd people, they're the worst. They're
Speaker 1: the worst, worst invention ever, worst invention ever. At this time,
Speaker 1: at this time, I would, I would, I would ask
Speaker 1: Drew what those Circle folks said about my particular case.
Speaker 1: But I don't want to have Drew talk out of turn.
Speaker 1: But let's just say they're in agreement with me in
Speaker 1: my little case. Um, would that be a fair characterization? Yes? No, yes, yeah,
Speaker 1: I mean that was again I'm a biased audience, so
Speaker 1: maybe they were just telling me what I wanted to hear.
Speaker 1: But we were install agreement across everyone. I talked to
Speaker 1: the industry that that Jeff Benson thing. Though, it's like
Speaker 1: it's clearly their fault for not putting them in. But
Speaker 1: it's amazing human beings transferring their their anger, you know,
Speaker 1: irrationally to the poor kid. And he's such a nice guy,
Speaker 1: such a nice guy. All right, let's start this. Are
Speaker 1: you eating? Are you eating today, I fastening. It is
Speaker 1: the day of Atonement. Really so religious. I'm religious. I'm
Speaker 1: the least religious person ever. This is a tribute to
Speaker 1: my father, right, This is tribute to my father. This
Speaker 1: is what he did every year, and I want as
Speaker 1: my own little way of attributing my father, this is
Speaker 1: what I do. So please, well keep your thoughts. I mean, look,
Speaker 1: I'm not gonna say you don't need to skip a
Speaker 1: couple of meals, so you know it's not the end
Speaker 1: of the I've always heard. I've always heard fasting brings
Speaker 1: on a little clairvoyance. So I can't wait to hear
Speaker 1: what your takes. Oh, thank you. I didn't know that
Speaker 1: was a side uh side effective fasting. I hope some
Speaker 1: clairvoyance will come. Uh that said, I wasn't very clairvoyant
Speaker 1: last week. Todd the records from last week as the
Speaker 1: as the podcast stenographer. Yes, as the podcast stenographer. Me
Speaker 1: and Mikey got robbed of going three and oh we
Speaker 1: both went two and one and we had over fifty
Speaker 1: two in that Arizona and they had fifty one at
Speaker 1: the end of three quarters and we were robbed. We
Speaker 1: should have had a three note. But me and Mikey
Speaker 1: both went two and one. Gilly the iceman went one
Speaker 1: and two. But all three of us hit the teasers.
Speaker 1: I didn't get robbed on the Damien Harris fumble. That
Speaker 1: wasn't robbery. You just want to robbery. One second, we
Speaker 1: can discuss robberies properly. Very easily. New England could have
Speaker 1: kicked the field goal at the end and you would
Speaker 1: have won by two very easily. You could have not
Speaker 1: very easily. You could have not scored fifty one and
Speaker 1: a half points, which is what happened. You're saying, So
Speaker 1: you're saying that has the same chances. There's no one
Speaker 1: scoring anything in the whole fourth quarter of a game.
Speaker 1: They already had fifty one, and you're actually, I am, actually,
Speaker 1: I am. I had first and ten at the eleven.
Speaker 1: You want to run the win probabilities on those, I'm
Speaker 1: going to respectfully disagree with you. I'm gonna call Michael
Speaker 1: Lombardi and we're gonna get the actual percentage problem. All right, Well,
Speaker 1: how did Brady do? Brady was wanted to Also, you
Speaker 1: don't realistic yet, Yeah, Brady was one day. You don't
Speaker 1: realistically think that New England covering they're needing a touchdown
Speaker 1: and to stop the Dolphins the other way is the
Speaker 1: same as having fifty one after three quarters. Do you
Speaker 1: really uh yeah, I'd have to see the play by
Speaker 1: play on your quarter. I don't know, I don't know.
Speaker 1: I don't know what the answer is. I was first
Speaker 1: intended the eleven. All I needed was one game in,
Speaker 1: one stop up. That's what is the percentage of getting
Speaker 1: it in on first Todd run? The numbers get I
Speaker 1: don't have a number for you, but I don't think
Speaker 1: it's as the numbers were much closer. No, it's not
Speaker 1: as cut and dry as you think it is. By
Speaker 1: the way, it's one point. Yeah, the live the live
Speaker 1: line was outside of three for me. Yeah, exactly. No. No,
Speaker 1: And like I'm like, like the live number on the
Speaker 1: board was was outside of three. Correct. So you're saying,
Speaker 1: that's what you're saying. You're saying the bet the in
Speaker 1: game betting market was on my side of things. Yeah,
Speaker 1: that's what I'm saying for you to Todd. But that's
Speaker 1: what I'm saying. It's like neither one of us was
Speaker 1: an underdog. You're acting like I was so much more
Speaker 1: of a dog than you. You're in about No. I
Speaker 1: would put you in about a fifty fifty there and
Speaker 1: I would put us in about like an eight twenty.
Speaker 1: Either way, they didn't work out. I ended up one
Speaker 1: and two and you ended up to and one. Bottom
Speaker 1: line is me and Mike you're two and one, you're
Speaker 1: one and two. Just let's move on. I don't you
Speaker 1: think I just said that? Uh? And everybody hit their teasers, right,
Speaker 1: everybody hit their teeth as I mentioned, were all one
Speaker 1: to know on the teasers. Okay, all right, it's no
Speaker 1: doubt even mikey. Uh. This is the time of year
Speaker 1: where we always talk about who didn't get their entries
Speaker 1: in and both millions in circus even before week one
Speaker 1: we had this happen. Yeah. I set the number for
Speaker 1: Survivor at twelve and a half and I was I
Speaker 1: was high. And I'm surprised because we had three times
Speaker 1: as many entries as last year, and I think we
Speaker 1: had eleven the first week. Didn't put him in. What
Speaker 1: was the total number of entries? Okay. What's what's unbelievable
Speaker 1: is how close to two contests were circu Mallions got
Speaker 1: four thousand eighty seven. Survivor got four thousand eighty. Wow,
Speaker 1: the difference from seven that is oncanny, right. I keep
Speaker 1: reminding Derek gently that in this meeting where we decided
Speaker 1: the rules and the guarantee, I had him convinced to
Speaker 1: do four million, four million and do eight million, and
Speaker 1: then he said, oh no, he just I changed my mind.
Speaker 1: Eight millions not sexy enough. Let's do ten million. Do
Speaker 1: you ever have a hie? But what was sexy about
Speaker 1: one point five million two years ago? That's not sexy?
Speaker 1: Do you agree with anything? Ten million versus eight million sexier?
Speaker 1: And was going to win in the fourth quarter and
Speaker 1: bo So we had eight people out of the four
Speaker 1: thousand eighty didn't get their survivor pick. Yet twenty one
Speaker 1: out of the four thousand eighties seven didn't submit picks
Speaker 1: in the circummedians, which they're disqualified from the year long
Speaker 1: Booby Prize because you have to put every pick and
Speaker 1: to win the Booby Prize. Yeah, they could win a
Speaker 1: quarterly movie prize later, but they can't win the year long.
Speaker 1: I went two in three and millions. The falcons like
Speaker 1: like in on the Megapod got me. That was a
Speaker 1: terrible pick. In New England got me with the fumble.
Speaker 1: Was it a terrible pick or did they just played terrible?
Speaker 1: I agreed with Brady I in Live life. I bet
Speaker 1: the falcons as well. Yeah, I mean they have got
Speaker 1: me too, and it is a terrible pick. How many
Speaker 1: times did I say Matt Ryan sucks and we should
Speaker 1: stop with this Matt Ryan nonsense. I'm tired of this guy.
Speaker 1: I'm tired. There's the first scream on the show. Yeah.
Speaker 1: There was a hundred and ninety six people that went
Speaker 1: or entries that went five and oh in week one
Speaker 1: and my partner am All Shaw, whose motto is I'd
Speaker 1: rather be piste off than piste on, is one of
Speaker 1: them went five? Yeah? Alright, Animal Show? Uh and then
Speaker 1: uh survivor how many people got eliminated out of the
Speaker 1: four thousand and eight it was seventeen percent, sixteen point
Speaker 1: seven percent. The fifth most popular through ninth most popular
Speaker 1: picks all got eliminated, but not one to three or four. No,
Speaker 1: one to three or four survive, but fifth. Which was
Speaker 1: shocked to me when I looked at it, was that
Speaker 1: the Jacksonville Jaguars were the fifth most popular pick and
Speaker 1: it wasn't that double option. Derek's talking about taking book
Speaker 1: because only fifteen people took the text, but a hundred
Speaker 1: sixty seven people, and then the Vikings Atlanta, the Patriots
Speaker 1: down the list of the next time was I was
Speaker 1: more surprised that the number one most popular picking circum
Speaker 1: millions was the was the Washington football team. I didn't
Speaker 1: understand that. I didn't understand it either. They bet them
Speaker 1: like that they had they and the game wasn't even
Speaker 1: that close. I mean, it's very weird the Chargers. The
Speaker 1: Chargers went two for but the Charges went two for
Speaker 1: six in the red zone. Todd on third down, I
Speaker 1: mean that that's fair. That's fair saying that when they
Speaker 1: were up sixty, had the ball, the Redskins would have
Speaker 1: won the game. They could have who could have won
Speaker 1: the game? Football team, whatever the game is. Sorry, Todd,
Speaker 1: I think you need to reevaluate your red zone analysis,
Speaker 1: both in the Washington game, in the Miami game, what
Speaker 1: was the red zone? And now in that one. I
Speaker 1: just said they abled to consider it for the Chargers
Speaker 1: Washington game. When you said, oh, Washington should have won, no,
Speaker 1: I said, they had the ball up sixteen thirteen, and
Speaker 1: they fumbled the ball away inside their own tent and
Speaker 1: gave him the game. Now, obviously the Chargers could have
Speaker 1: won the game. I'm just saying, and maybe should have
Speaker 1: won the game. The point is at sixteen thirteen, at
Speaker 1: that point, they had all the momentum and the football
Speaker 1: and they're at home, and Heineke is better than uh
Speaker 1: Ryan Fitzpatrick at this point, I guess. And wow, all
Speaker 1: I'm saying is looked all right. I was surprised. I
Speaker 1: have no problem with Heineke. Let's start with a Thursday
Speaker 1: night game. Since we segue to that, Drew will start
Speaker 1: with you Thursday night football, a barn burner between washing
Speaker 1: and in the Giants Washington three and a half point favorites,
Speaker 1: the total down to forty and a half. I um,
Speaker 1: I guess this morning there'll be less than five totals,
Speaker 1: fewer than five totals less than that the rest of
Speaker 1: the year, but we'll see. Uh do you have a
Speaker 1: play on this game? Uh? Yeah, I played into the
Speaker 1: opener on the total under forty two and a half.
Speaker 1: Most of my thought process was pretty straightforward here. Um,
Speaker 1: you have Taylor Heineke on a short week. What does
Speaker 1: that mean? Well, Uh, typically when you have a compressed
Speaker 1: schedule for preparing your offensive game plan. Uh, it is
Speaker 1: imperative that you use the prior week to get as
Speaker 1: much you know, get as much into the you know,
Speaker 1: as made wrinkles as possible in before you get to
Speaker 1: that Thursday night football game. And the fact that you
Speaker 1: have now a replacement level quarterback means anything that Washington
Speaker 1: prepared for in the preseason goes out the window and
Speaker 1: they have to on the fly come up with a
Speaker 1: game plan to attack what does I think at least
Speaker 1: a more stout defense with the Giants than what we
Speaker 1: saw against the Denver Broncos. So ultimately, I don't know
Speaker 1: how Washington goes score for score if the Giants even
Speaker 1: have anywhere close to uh life, you know, and in
Speaker 1: their offensive look um, and you get to basically taking
Speaker 1: the under. You get to fade the rookie quarterback on
Speaker 1: the short week as well as Jason Garrett on a
Speaker 1: short week, So it both both worked for me. Washington
Speaker 1: last week gave up a fifteen play drive with the
Speaker 1: Chargers that ran out the last six forty three of
Speaker 1: the game, couldn't get them off the field. Chargers were
Speaker 1: fourteen of nineteen on on third downs. Daniel Jones fumbled
Speaker 1: inside the red zone with the Giants driving late in
Speaker 1: the third quarter down seventeen to seven, when the game
Speaker 1: was still in the balance against Denver for Daniel Jones
Speaker 1: his NFL worst eighteen fumbles loss since entering the NFL
Speaker 1: in twenty nineteen. Matt Brown, my co host on Primetime
Speaker 1: Action on MSG plus, said he heard in great moments,
Speaker 1: in horrible use of trends history, he heard somebody throwing
Speaker 1: out the stat He goes, uh, Daniel Jones. He gave
Speaker 1: all the Janiel Daniel Jones fumbles, lost that and the other.
Speaker 1: But he's never fumbled against Washington. And you know there's
Speaker 1: some people who are gonna hear that and be like,
Speaker 1: oh wait a minute, he holds the ball tighter against Washington.
Speaker 1: Apparently some of these trend things are ludicrous. They're ludicrous.
Speaker 1: You know. We had some people like I like Greg
Speaker 1: mcelroyal lot as an analyst right as he knows his betting.
Speaker 1: He knows betting, and I think he's good on the games.
Speaker 1: But we had him on and he he wants He
Speaker 1: said Clemson was to play against Georgia, and his chief
Speaker 1: reason was in matchup of top five teams all time,
Speaker 1: Clemson is six and one in Georgia's three and ten,
Speaker 1: I said, what is what? What is what Mark Rick
Speaker 1: did with forty different kids ten years ago? Or have
Speaker 1: anything to do with this group of people That can't
Speaker 1: be that, that can't be relevant to this game. College
Speaker 1: has become Mike, Mike or Todd anything about this game tonight?
Speaker 1: I am staying clear. I'd like to make a comment
Speaker 1: from a survivor perspective. Yes, you think Washington's a pick tonight,
Speaker 1: I think you have to think about using it because
Speaker 1: of this damn Christmas rule. Right, You would think Cleveland
Speaker 1: and green Bay would be Survivor picks, but don't you
Speaker 1: have to save them to see what happens that Chris here?
Speaker 1: Is that too far away? Here's the thing about the
Speaker 1: green Bay part of that. Green Bay has a really
Speaker 1: tough game on Christmas, right, Like, you wouldn't pick them anyway.
Speaker 1: So the notion that you should be saving green Bay
Speaker 1: unless you can foresee an injury, right is kind of
Speaker 1: ludicrous to me. But to your point, these two segments
Speaker 1: of three games, Thanksgiving and Christmas, they're all up. The
Speaker 1: biggest number is Dallison and Oakland on Thanksgiving, which is
Speaker 1: not that clear of a game either, but right, so,
Speaker 1: I mean they're tough games. I got into I got
Speaker 1: into it with the yesterday shock. I can't believe that.
Speaker 1: We were talking about the notion of multiple entries and
Speaker 1: survivor and multiple entries, and then I said to him,
Speaker 1: I go, multiple entries my position. You can agree or disagree.
Speaker 1: I go, yes, your your probability of winning gets incrementally.
Speaker 1: He couldn't figure. He doesn't matter how many time to said,
Speaker 1: until he goes, well, he keeps coming back to you
Speaker 1: think it's the same amount of you have six entries
Speaker 1: one and I go, it's not what I said. I'll
Speaker 1: say it for a fifth time. Uh, it's incrementally better.
Speaker 1: But what I what I The point I was trying
Speaker 1: to make is the notion of having extra entries and
Speaker 1: survivor is actually less of a thing than people make
Speaker 1: it out to be. Because ultimately saying it's not six
Speaker 1: times more correct correct because well, he didn't get that point,
Speaker 1: so he What I'm saying is people end up playing
Speaker 1: those extra entries differently inevitably than they would their final one.
Speaker 1: And so in practice, while it sounds like a good thing,
Speaker 1: I hated myself immediately when about five entries because I
Speaker 1: know that eventually those four, in addition to the one
Speaker 1: that makes it the furthest, they're going to slough off
Speaker 1: because I'm not gonna play all five the same one,
Speaker 1: because that's the other way to say, are you playing
Speaker 1: all five the same way? If the answer is no,
Speaker 1: then my point is made. Then you're playing it differently
Speaker 1: than you would have optimally. That's all. But you think
Speaker 1: Washington doesn't play that, I think you have to consider them.
Speaker 1: I think the Giants are that bad. I was. I
Speaker 1: was thoroughly disgusted with the giants performance. I like Denver
Speaker 1: all week. I bet them when they were one and
Speaker 1: a half about a month ago because I and whine,
Speaker 1: I don't want to lay a field goal on the road.
Speaker 1: I played the game under I didn't think the Giant
Speaker 1: it's like the Giants. They got a touchdown on the
Speaker 1: last play of the game. I mean that the game
Speaker 1: was out of reach. I didn't feel that there was
Speaker 1: any point in that game where Denver wasn't in control
Speaker 1: of it with the quarterback when it was seventeen seven
Speaker 1: and the Giants were inside. But they still want no, No, Mike,
Speaker 1: you weren't gonna win the game. I agree with you.
Speaker 1: The Giants were not going to win the game. Denver
Speaker 1: was gonna win the game. And by the way, Teddy
Speaker 1: two gloves is a great game manager. Don't blow the
Speaker 1: game well, he is fantastic. He fits the teams the team,
Speaker 1: he fits his head coaches, hippocratic view of the quarterback position. First,
Speaker 1: do no harm and I will not speak up my uh.
Speaker 1: And by the way, people people joke about, they don't
Speaker 1: understand in the NFL it's more important not to lose
Speaker 1: the game than to win the games. Such a good point.
Speaker 1: But let me just say this, and we gotta get
Speaker 1: to our best best because Mike, he's on a schedule here,
Speaker 1: but we because you gotta do the nuts. By the way,
Speaker 1: the name it is official now, Odds who came up
Speaker 1: with that name? That was my first choice, odds On
Speaker 1: back in December when we were talking about this show,
Speaker 1: and Bill ad marketing guru said, oh, we we can't
Speaker 1: protect it, Odds Shark will sue us this and that.
Speaker 1: So then when they decided they wanted to go away
Speaker 1: from the Nuts, they had all these choices and I'm
Speaker 1: all sent in choices and I said, I still like
Speaker 1: my original odds on Bill Goes. That's a great name.
Speaker 1: That's what we're gonna call it. I said, Bill, you said, no,
Speaker 1: that it's on he Goes. No, I never heard of
Speaker 1: that name, I said, I have the emails. Surprise you
Speaker 1: guys didn't come up with a numbers game with the
Speaker 1: Z instead of an s now that would That would
Speaker 1: have been the move. Last thing before we get the
Speaker 1: best bets about the Broncos. Back to the Broncos for
Speaker 1: second draft kings. So good on draft kings. They do
Speaker 1: adjusted season win totals after every week, and they did
Speaker 1: it after week one and every so I've been on
Speaker 1: these off the grid stock market like you know, very
Speaker 1: illegal uh things for years and years and years where
Speaker 1: I bet season win totals in football when they weren't
Speaker 1: around and realized jurisdictions, uh, and they were just there
Speaker 1: was a buy price in a cell price. It actually
Speaker 1: started at Lehman Brothers. It was the biggest thing in
Speaker 1: the world. I don't play it anymore. And now in
Speaker 1: legalized jurisdictions, although we don't have buy and sell prices,
Speaker 1: we have these adjusted so good on them for that.
Speaker 1: And usually what happens is if you win a game
Speaker 1: you're not supposed to write. If you win a game
Speaker 1: as a dog, or if you lose the game as
Speaker 1: a favorite, your number gets adjusted more than otherwise makes
Speaker 1: sense intuitively, the Broncos at Draft Kings their season win
Speaker 1: total after beating the Giants, a game they were favorite,
Speaker 1: in a game they were supposed to win, got adjusted
Speaker 1: all the way to ten and a half. Yes, So
Speaker 1: I talked about it last night on Prime Time from
Speaker 1: eight and a half. It was seven and a half
Speaker 1: in the middle of the summer, eight and a half
Speaker 1: before the season. So I talked about on Prime Time
Speaker 1: last night. I talked about on a numbers game this
Speaker 1: morning that to me right now is the best bet
Speaker 1: on the board minus one ten under ten and a
Speaker 1: half on the Broncs that much in the other three
Speaker 1: teams in their Division one. It's not like anything was
Speaker 1: exposed that their divisions. They're still playing the Chiefs twice.
Speaker 1: If they won a game they were supposed to win.
Speaker 1: It made no sense intuitively. Don't know if you saw that, true,
Speaker 1: I I didn't, But that's absolutely But I mean, and
Speaker 1: that's that's in keeping with the overreaction in the Week
Speaker 1: two line. This look ahead was Denver minus one and
Speaker 1: a half and now it's six. And oh, by the way, like,
Speaker 1: um all, I bet five sides this week. I got
Speaker 1: market agreement on four. Uh. The Jacksonville plus six got
Speaker 1: thrown back in my face. So somebody out there was
Speaker 1: like ready to play six with then. So you make
Speaker 1: a great point, because let's keep in mind Draft Kings.
Speaker 1: Besides New Jersey, what's their biggest jurisdiction, Colorado? So we
Speaker 1: we we hypothesize that there's so much overreaction to the
Speaker 1: Broncos in that state that it is artificially moving their
Speaker 1: lines in a way that makes no sense whatsoever in
Speaker 1: the general market. Let's do best bets drew first, one
Speaker 1: side or total Week two of the NFL. Let's go side.
Speaker 1: Uh my favorite look currently on the board. I'm taking
Speaker 1: on your Las Vegas Raiders by backing the Pittsburgh Steelers
Speaker 1: price available right now five five and a half? Is
Speaker 1: that is that fair? Todd? We we usually go by
Speaker 1: the consensus, which is six. Right now, it's up to six.
Speaker 1: That happened this morning. Huh, all right, I'll lay the six.
Speaker 1: I don't mind dum. Obviously you want the best of
Speaker 1: the number. Uh, this was one where I hit I
Speaker 1: hit it four and a half and the market instantly
Speaker 1: was hot, so I knew I feel good about this one.
Speaker 1: In general, there's a number of angles that I think
Speaker 1: in this matchup, angles that support the Pittsburgh Steelers. Obviously,
Speaker 1: we'll start with the defensive side. The Pittsburgh Steelers proved
Speaker 1: against the Buffalo Bills that they are still one of
Speaker 1: the top, if not the best defense in the NFL.
Speaker 1: UM And you know when when you match up against
Speaker 1: the Raiders, the Raiders offense goes through one man. His
Speaker 1: name is Darren Waller, and the Pittsburgh Steelers have a
Speaker 1: unique defender and make it Fitzpatrick, who is maybe one
Speaker 1: of a handful of guys in the NFL who can
Speaker 1: match up with Darren Waller. Uh And, so I'm very
Speaker 1: excited to see that matchup in particular. Uh And we
Speaker 1: saw whenever the Ravens had anywhere close to type coverage
Speaker 1: on Waller, car was throwing a very safe pass in
Speaker 1: his actions overthrowing him. Uh. In fact, a lot of
Speaker 1: the first half utility of the Raiders offense was born
Speaker 1: out of not being able to hit the tight window
Speaker 1: to Darren Waller. So I think if that's sort of
Speaker 1: the the key to unraveling the Raiders offensive scheme, then
Speaker 1: that is advantaged Steelers on top of the fact that
Speaker 1: you have a number of injuries the Raiders offense are
Speaker 1: dealing with now, injuries across the offensive line in incognito
Speaker 1: missing practice. They put a guard on I R this week.
Speaker 1: They have Josh Jacob's missing practice, and the wide receivers
Speaker 1: were unimpressive against that Ravens secondary who was missing a
Speaker 1: ton of pieces. So um, I think ultimately the T J.
Speaker 1: Watt on the front floor are going to be able
Speaker 1: to generate an enormous amount of pressure on Car bring
Speaker 1: out the worst in him in terms of his passing. Uh.
Speaker 1: And then uh, you know, realistically you can keep the
Speaker 1: Raiders into the teens here um maybe less. And then
Speaker 1: the Steelers offensively, they were not impressive against the Bills.
Speaker 1: I will completely admit that, although I graded their offensive
Speaker 1: line a lot better than my expectation going into that game,
Speaker 1: particularly the adjustments they made a halftime in the second
Speaker 1: half of that game. Uh. And I think with the
Speaker 1: number of web things that they have in the passing attack,
Speaker 1: you're going to have an ability to get the ball
Speaker 1: out of Ben's hands quickly. Um, they're gonna be able
Speaker 1: to lean on naj Harris in the running game and
Speaker 1: getting him outside the tackles, which where he was the
Speaker 1: most effective against the Bills, and that should work and provide,
Speaker 1: you know, paid dividends for a Pittsburgh team that is
Speaker 1: still underrated by the market, even though this is a
Speaker 1: team that is healthier at every at basically every level
Speaker 1: on defense than they were when they finished last season,
Speaker 1: on top of the fact that Roethlisberger's arm is a
Speaker 1: lot more live than when the Steelers collapsed at the end.
Speaker 1: All told, I think you're getting a good situational spot
Speaker 1: again with the Raiders on a short week coming off
Speaker 1: of a hugely emotional Monday night football game, heading across
Speaker 1: the country for the Steelers home opener. Uh and anything
Speaker 1: lower than a touchdown as they play. My fair in
Speaker 1: this one is Pittsburgh by seven, very thorough, very logical. Pittsburgh.
Speaker 1: Mine is six. A few things. One, The Reds are
Speaker 1: already in trouble of the first tinning against the Pirates
Speaker 1: again Molly Molly's best road pitcher as baseball, and they're
Speaker 1: gonna blow this. They've lost eight straight series they refused
Speaker 1: to make the playoffs. It's unbelievable, uh to uh what
Speaker 1: you're saying about Darren Waller. His prop before that Ravens
Speaker 1: game the other night was like six catches and sixty
Speaker 1: eight and a half yards. Immediately saw in primetime, actually,
Speaker 1: I go call me square, give me the over on
Speaker 1: the sixth eight half. Couldn't one the over in each
Speaker 1: He was targeted nineteen times every Raiders game. I see,
Speaker 1: I'm like, just passed the ball of the wall and
Speaker 1: they have where's that coming from? And then they and
Speaker 1: then they just uh they took it to heart apparently.
Speaker 1: And by the way, the end of that game, let's
Speaker 1: just walk through it real quick. End of the game.
Speaker 1: So it's tied. Lamar Jackson fumbles, the Raiders are able
Speaker 1: to tie it up at seventeen. Then the Ravens score again.
Speaker 1: They tied up at four. So big thirty eight yard
Speaker 1: run by Lamar Jackson at the two minute mark. They
Speaker 1: get down it's a chip shot for Justin Tucker forty
Speaker 1: seven yard field goal with thirty seven seconds left in
Speaker 1: the game. He sinks it thirty seven seconds left in
Speaker 1: the game. They do not mortar kick it. They kick
Speaker 1: it through the ends on the game. How do you
Speaker 1: not dribble the ball there scooted on the ground. I'm
Speaker 1: not saying kicking up in the air because the fair catching.
Speaker 1: But well, but yes, but even then neill pin them.
Speaker 1: So it's either you run time off the clock or
Speaker 1: you more, or you pin them one of the You
Speaker 1: can't take a chance of her, I said, you must.
Speaker 1: It's all about the clock. Yard. You've gotta run five
Speaker 1: to seven seconds off the clock or pin them thirty
Speaker 1: thirty seven seconds up. So they don't do that. And
Speaker 1: two plays, really two successful plays all it took. Raiders
Speaker 1: tie the game up on a Dan Dani Carlson field goal. Okay,
Speaker 1: so it goes to overtime and then fifty five yard
Speaker 1: by the way, but that's the other thing that gets
Speaker 1: washed over. Like in the Minnesota game, Joseph hit one
Speaker 1: fifty yard or got ice and then hit another fifty
Speaker 1: two yard right two fifty yards in the right. I
Speaker 1: didn't work out on the end the uh in overtime.
Speaker 1: The bananas of that overtime, like so Carter Edwards from
Speaker 1: the thirty four yard line touchdown Raiders. We could see
Speaker 1: it with our naked eye. Who was probably short. The
Speaker 1: field is filled with players. They're tapping up Lamar, They're
Speaker 1: tapping up everybody, and it's like, yeah, he's he's down.
Speaker 1: So they got to clear everybody out. Raiders get the ball.
Speaker 1: Derek Carr gets stymied on the first I guess because
Speaker 1: they blew the whistle. You know, I had under one
Speaker 1: and a half for shortest TD Oh wow, yeah, oh man.
Speaker 1: And then they then two plays later it's the uh.
Speaker 1: Then it's the next play, it's then they do a
Speaker 1: hard can. They go a hard count and Alex Leatherwood
Speaker 1: jumps outside. You're like, I cannot believe what I'm watching.
Speaker 1: Sure enough, two plays later, off a helmet into the
Speaker 1: hands of the Ravens and you're like, I cannot believe
Speaker 1: it's happening. But then Lamar Jackson puts the ball on
Speaker 1: the ground again, which Drew and I talked about earlier
Speaker 1: this week. It's it's hard to get mad at Lamar
Speaker 1: Jazon because he's running for his life the entire game.
Speaker 1: And then finally the touchdown where Marlon Humphrey in the
Speaker 1: middle of the ball in mid air just goes, yeah,
Speaker 1: you're gonna score there, You're good. That's just bananas, bananas.
Speaker 1: I don't know. Why do you like guilt, said Gil.
Speaker 1: Do you like Waller over six and a half minus
Speaker 1: one seventy four and a half, which is what it
Speaker 1: is currently a draft? Yes, just over over over all
Speaker 1: Derrick Cardos shouldn't. I mean, it seems to me that
Speaker 1: that's the correct play. But but um Drew was saying
Speaker 1: that Minka Fitzpatrick is gonna is gonna get all over him.
Speaker 1: But still it's not gonna matter if they throw him
Speaker 1: eight hundred times, right, right, if they throw eight hundred
Speaker 1: times and it won't matter. But yeah, I agree with
Speaker 1: the make of ititz Patrick part of it too. But
Speaker 1: I mean, I'm not going under on Waller props. Let's
Speaker 1: put it that way. Uh, Todd, you go best bet first.
Speaker 1: You know, I don't like any of these damn games.
Speaker 1: But if I have to pick one, Say, if I
Speaker 1: have to pick one, I'll take the New England Patriots
Speaker 1: minus the six at the New York Jets. Now, I
Speaker 1: was a little skeptical of all the mac jones. Everyone
Speaker 1: was getting a complete excited sexually over mac Jones, Like,
Speaker 1: oh my god, this guy is the greatest the quarterback
Speaker 1: in the history of football and he's unbelievable and oh
Speaker 1: my god. And I have to say I was actually
Speaker 1: pretty impressed with mac Jones. I'll be honest, I was
Speaker 1: pretty impressed. It was a tough defense with with the Dolphins.
Speaker 1: They were inside the red zonal whole bunch of times. Granted,
Speaker 1: they had to kick field goals many times, and of
Speaker 1: course they screwed Gil in a fifty fifty toss up
Speaker 1: in the fourth quarter there Um, okay, Gil whatever. Anyways,
Speaker 1: the point is they were moving the ball. He did
Speaker 1: throw one gorgeous ball on a wheel route that I
Speaker 1: was like, God, damn, that was a rookie through that ball.
Speaker 1: I was like, this mac Jones might be for real.
Speaker 1: And uh so I really liked what I saw out
Speaker 1: of mac Jones. And because of that, it's Belichick against
Speaker 1: some guy from b YU who also is creating sexual
Speaker 1: excitement for people. But they came back to earth with
Speaker 1: what's happening to you right now? I'm trying to say
Speaker 1: it in a nice way. I'm trying to say it
Speaker 1: in a in a family friendly way. I was going
Speaker 1: to use the B word, but I'm not gonna say everybody.
Speaker 1: Everybody had a little too much excitement about Mr Zack
Speaker 1: Wilson and they came back to earth, and I think
Speaker 1: they're they're gonna have to come back to earth again
Speaker 1: this week. The Jets are not a good football team, folks.
Speaker 1: They're just not that good. And he's a rookie quarterback
Speaker 1: and he's going and get Belichick. Belichick is gonna, you know,
Speaker 1: draw something up and if Mac Jones is gonna play decently,
Speaker 1: I don't think minus six is so much to ask,
Speaker 1: even though we're on the road. Okay, Mike, my top pick,
Speaker 1: I bet live at plus three, but I know now
Speaker 1: it's two and a half as the Cincinnati Bengals at
Speaker 1: the Chicago Bears. Um, but right now, right now it's mine.
Speaker 1: It's uh, it's too sort of what do you have
Speaker 1: guilt for that game? Um? I don't know if I
Speaker 1: have internet connection, so I can't tell you right now.
Speaker 1: My consensus says two and a half half. I think
Speaker 1: it's so Bengals. You're taking Bengals plus two and a
Speaker 1: half my gear. Yeah, the Bears defense is not good.
Speaker 1: I mean, this is another team where we're listening to
Speaker 1: a narrative about like the football teams was um or
Speaker 1: you think the Giants is an average even they're not
Speaker 1: an average defense. This Bears defense is not good. I
Speaker 1: mean they the Dalton play all right on Sunday Night,
Speaker 1: but their defense doesn't stop anybody. You know, they gave
Speaker 1: up all these points. They gave up touchdowns and the
Speaker 1: drives in the reseason. I know it's the preseason, but
Speaker 1: it wasn't fourth stringers playing in the first quarter in
Speaker 1: the preseas. I'm talking about first half possessions and their
Speaker 1: preseason games. Teams were going up and down the field
Speaker 1: like they were high school. That was their second string.
Speaker 1: They're they're not good on defense. Uh Khalil Mack is
Speaker 1: not the player he was three or four years ago,
Speaker 1: and I think Cincinnati will be able to move the
Speaker 1: ball here against him. I think it's a lower scoring game,
Speaker 1: but I think Cincinnati's the better team here. I'd make
Speaker 1: Cincinnati a favorite on a neutral field, and so I
Speaker 1: think there's some value. I also bet him on the
Speaker 1: money line as well, so Cincinnati plus two and a
Speaker 1: half here. Cincinnati another team that benefited from a late
Speaker 1: fumble from a from a running back Dalvin Cook fumbling,
Speaker 1: and plus territory and overtime to suck the life out
Speaker 1: of the Vikings there in that one. So Cincinnati's your
Speaker 1: first pick. What is the Kansas City Chiefs line? Todd?
Speaker 1: Kansas City Chiefs are playing the Baltimore Ravens. I have
Speaker 1: them at minus three and a half. Okay, So on
Speaker 1: guessing lines, which took place before the Ravens played on
Speaker 1: Monday Night, Christie and I do a whole thing where
Speaker 1: again tribute to the old Stardust show. It's the other
Speaker 1: podcast episode here on the Beating the Book feed during
Speaker 1: football season, um, I guessed that site unseen with the
Speaker 1: Ravens that the Chiefs would end up being five and
Speaker 1: a half point favorites, and he goes, oh, no, your
Speaker 1: way off, it's two and a half, to which I replied,
Speaker 1: are you I wanted to say, are you fucking crazy?
Speaker 1: Two and a half? What? And then the Ravens went
Speaker 1: out and showed us that not only do they have
Speaker 1: running back depth problem, but they're offensive line is in tatters.
Speaker 1: Villa Nueva with the worst offensive line score of anybody
Speaker 1: at Pro Football Focus all week long in the National
Speaker 1: Football League. You can't in six days fix your offensive line.
Speaker 1: So even at three and a half, and again even
Speaker 1: if even if Baltimore, you know, even if uh you know,
Speaker 1: they play somewhat competently in this game, that offensive line
Speaker 1: is gonna put the Kansas City offense back on the
Speaker 1: field time and time again. I don't understand three and
Speaker 1: a half. And I have a one dollar wager one
Speaker 1: dollar United States with Chrissy that by game time it
Speaker 1: will get to my number. I may lose that dollar,
Speaker 1: but the point is I think it's gonna keep rising.
Speaker 1: I will take Kansas City minus three and a half
Speaker 1: a fourth quarter of the Raiders game a morning hosted
Speaker 1: Visa not you at PAULI. Howard text me and he said,
Speaker 1: bet MGM has left this Baltimore Kansas City game up
Speaker 1: while this Monday night game is going on. Really, I said,
Speaker 1: what's the number right now? He said it's three? He said,
Speaker 1: I like the chief. Should I bet it now? I said,
Speaker 1: And what world do you think it's going to be
Speaker 1: less than three a right game? You want to come
Speaker 1: back at four or four and a half? I thought,
Speaker 1: and I said it might get to five by game time.
Speaker 1: The three in my account earlier the week I bought
Speaker 1: it down to the three just for the heck of it. Yeah,
Speaker 1: but three and a half. I'll take Kansas City is
Speaker 1: my number one play, and again call me square, I'll
Speaker 1: take in Kansas City. Also, it was kind of surprising
Speaker 1: that a John Harbaugh kind of team doesn't win that game,
Speaker 1: like twenty thirteen or twenty to seventeen. It was seventeen
Speaker 1: ten with nine minutes to go and they had the
Speaker 1: ball to me. I thought, Okay, they'll come down, they'll
Speaker 1: kick the field goal, they'll go up twenty to ten.
Speaker 1: Then maybe they'll give him a backward field goal or touchdown.
Speaker 1: They're gonna win the game, right, That's a John Harbaugh
Speaker 1: type of football game. But that's not what happened. They
Speaker 1: let the Raiders go right down the I believe it
Speaker 1: was first in goal from the twenty, and they let
Speaker 1: him score touchdown first in goal from the twenty? Are
Speaker 1: you kidding me? You can make the argument though, that
Speaker 1: the game didn't flatter the Raiders. There's the play in
Speaker 1: the first quarter on the opening drive where they have
Speaker 1: a double injury and a holding penalty and end up
Speaker 1: with no points when they're on the eight team. Then
Speaker 1: there's a horrific offensive past interference call as they're coming
Speaker 1: off the goal line that never gets called in the NFL,
Speaker 1: and it's a bad call. I mean, there were some
Speaker 1: things there where you could say this Raiders result, it
Speaker 1: was unfortunate that they even went to overtime. I think
Speaker 1: we're gonna look back on that game and we're gonna
Speaker 1: be like, those were two really mediocre football teams. I
Speaker 1: really do competitive Exactly when I put up on Twitter,
Speaker 1: I said this is seven to eight to nine win teams.
Speaker 1: That's what they are. I don't disagree with that. I
Speaker 1: just want to add Gil. I don't know if you
Speaker 1: saw this because you were on the air, but Ronnie Stanley,
Speaker 1: oh yes, I heard at the end of the show. Yeah,
Speaker 1: I cut you off. Finishes the finish. I'm sorry, Ronnie
Speaker 1: Stanley out Yeah no, yeah, yeah, like the out for
Speaker 1: a while. So Villanueva now goes to the left table
Speaker 1: spot and put in a replacement level player. Excellent it.
Speaker 1: How is that line? What it is like? I don't
Speaker 1: understand why. I understand why there's not more money flowing
Speaker 1: into Kansas City. I don't know either. I think Holmes
Speaker 1: is missing the past. This car was missing in the
Speaker 1: first half of that game. I mean there was he
Speaker 1: was he was not good car in the first half
Speaker 1: of that game. Yeah, and I think I think you
Speaker 1: have a good pick though on Casey there and uh,
Speaker 1: ultimately I thought the Raiders exposed that the Ravens defense
Speaker 1: is not top ten. You know, they were expected to
Speaker 1: be a top five maybe top three unit, and they
Speaker 1: have major major issues on defense that's not fixable in
Speaker 1: one week. And health issues, depth issues, lots of problems.
Speaker 1: Uh and uh. I can tell you though that there
Speaker 1: is someone out there in the market who has who
Speaker 1: was baiting Baltimore for all day yesterday to try to
Speaker 1: get that number. And so there's a pretty aggressive there's
Speaker 1: some pretty aggressive orders out there that are getting filled
Speaker 1: for anything that's even a like a flat or a
Speaker 1: or a flattering three and a half four at the
Speaker 1: point of resistance, then yeah, yeah, I don't I don't
Speaker 1: think it's yeah it maybe it may, you know, the
Speaker 1: day of the game. Who knows. Yeah, Um, for now,
Speaker 1: at least, there's a lot of Baltimore buy for whatever reason,
Speaker 1: I don't understand it. I don't understand it either, Todd
Speaker 1: because go ahead, Drew, go ahead. I'm sorry. They had
Speaker 1: a little bit of vanilla game plan Baltimore offensively, So
Speaker 1: somebody may be thinking like, oh, they were saving the
Speaker 1: good place because they thought they could beat the Raiders easily. Right,
Speaker 1: Like the game plan from the Raiders. Ravens was not
Speaker 1: plus TV at all. Like a lot of their best stuff,
Speaker 1: we didn't see it. Um, if they were saying it
Speaker 1: saving it for the Chiefs, if the Chiefs defense and
Speaker 1: tackling issues are as problematic as we saw against the Browns,
Speaker 1: then maybe the Ravens can go score for score with
Speaker 1: these guys. But if that's the case, then this total
Speaker 1: is going to get blasted. I agree with Drew what
Speaker 1: happened to this new look Ravens offense. This was the
Speaker 1: same old stuff Greg Roman needs go go back to
Speaker 1: and Holy Spirit. That's assault continues from Mike Palm year
Speaker 1: after year. All Right, Todd, you get honors here because
Speaker 1: I know you complained before the season. Yes, because I
Speaker 1: was always the last last time. Okay, I'm gonna take
Speaker 1: you know. I don't know, but I like the over
Speaker 1: in the Cincinnati Bengal Bear game. Um, I kind of
Speaker 1: agree with Mike Palm that the Bears defense doesn't really
Speaker 1: strike fear into anybody, and the Bengals, actually we're scoring
Speaker 1: the ball after a very slow start in the Vikings game,
Speaker 1: they were scoring the ball. It made me be remembered
Speaker 1: of the Joe Burrow, you know, showing a lot of
Speaker 1: green shoots back before he got injured the first year.
Speaker 1: And I'm starting to think, hey, maybe the Cincinnati team
Speaker 1: on offense is pretty good and or at least, you know,
Speaker 1: at least average to slightly above average, and so I
Speaker 1: think they could get some points for you against the
Speaker 1: Bears defense. And I thought the Bears offense actually didn't
Speaker 1: look too bad. They were running the ball on the Rams.
Speaker 1: I was like, every time they hand off in the
Speaker 1: first half, they're gashing the hell out of the vaunted
Speaker 1: Rams supposed front four Montgomery guys running for nine yards,
Speaker 1: twelve yards, eleven yards. Andy Dalton is throwing it around,
Speaker 1: and I'm like wow, And I'm thinking the Bears don't
Speaker 1: look that bad on offense. You know, had had Stafford
Speaker 1: not hit those big long plays, that game could have
Speaker 1: been much closer game. Now, granted, the Bears you know,
Speaker 1: defense didn't do them any any uh, you know, favors,
Speaker 1: But I just thought the Bears look better on offense
Speaker 1: then you would have expected them to look with h
Speaker 1: with what might cause the beige water pistol Andy Dalton
Speaker 1: back there. And I think that, um, I think that
Speaker 1: the Bears will be able to score because I don't
Speaker 1: think Cincinnati's defense is you know, it's probably slightly below average,
Speaker 1: right if if average to below average, forty five is
Speaker 1: not really that high. So you know what, give me
Speaker 1: over over forty five with the Bengals against the Bears.
Speaker 1: Todd if you were still a Jew and not have
Speaker 1: renounced you, what would you what sins would you atone
Speaker 1: for today? Just curious betting on Matt Ryan ever, betting
Speaker 1: on Philip Rivers ever? Uh? And that's when I do
Speaker 1: every year. Um. Other other sins involved embarrassing good friends
Speaker 1: about their weight. That's not when you're not supposed to do.
Speaker 1: And uh, I don't know calling Mikey a mediocre talk
Speaker 1: show host. Maybe that would be wrong too. Wow Wow, Sorry,
Speaker 1: I asked, all right, jerw Ski, what's next? What do
Speaker 1: you got? Uh? So this one was a little bit
Speaker 1: of a hold your nose play, But I gotta be
Speaker 1: on the right side of this number. I'm gonna take
Speaker 1: the Colts at plus three and a half Indianapolis in
Speaker 1: uh in a better I guess guess the market really,
Speaker 1: in my opinion, overreacted to what you saw on Sunday
Speaker 1: Night football with the Rams and the Bears. I thought,
Speaker 1: you know, in general has pointed out and by the way,
Speaker 1: so far, I don't think we've had a losing pick.
Speaker 1: I love everything that you guys have said. Uh. And
Speaker 1: I'm in general agreement here. Um, but I did think
Speaker 1: the Rams defense got exposed to a degree on the ground.
Speaker 1: That's a team that if you can put two hats
Speaker 1: on are in donald there's a lot of soft spots,
Speaker 1: particularly in the running game. And a team like Indianapolis
Speaker 1: that's like their plan a. Uh. You know, they want
Speaker 1: to dictate with offensive line. They want to get Jonathan
Speaker 1: Taylor going early in this game. Uh. And I think
Speaker 1: you saw a very poor performance out of the Colts
Speaker 1: in Week one, particularly in the first half, and it
Speaker 1: was all borne out of rust. Really, Carson Wentz got
Speaker 1: almost no reps with this team in the preseason because
Speaker 1: of the foot injury. They throw them out their Week
Speaker 1: one and expected him to perform well against a relatively
Speaker 1: stout Seattle front. Uh. And no, no, no, no, no,
Speaker 1: bottom five, bottom five in the NFL. Absolutely, Yeah, there's
Speaker 1: and I'm not counting on Carson Wentz to you know,
Speaker 1: light the world on fire here to get me this W.
Speaker 1: I literally would like Jonathan Taylor to be sort of
Speaker 1: the featured part of the Colts offense this week and
Speaker 1: get out to a nice lead. And honestly, a guy
Speaker 1: like Carson Wentz you can play fairly well with the lead. Uh.
Speaker 1: And I think that's really the game state that the
Speaker 1: Rams are going to find themselves in coming in in
Speaker 1: a just a brutal situation. They played in prime time.
Speaker 1: They spent the entire preseason on the West coast. Uh
Speaker 1: and uh, now they gotta go fly east. They gotta
Speaker 1: kick off at you know, the crack of dawn their time. Uh.
Speaker 1: And I think you can get you know, this sets
Speaker 1: up well for the Colts to kind of play from
Speaker 1: ahead to a degree. And uh, you know, there's a
Speaker 1: lot of positives that I think you can point to
Speaker 1: in terms of what they did at half time adjusting
Speaker 1: to the Seattle Seahawks attacks. Seattle came out in that
Speaker 1: game and they picked apart. You know, they they every
Speaker 1: everybody's talked about this. They were using the cover two busters, right,
Speaker 1: and these are you know, the cover two has been solved.
Speaker 1: This is how you beat it, right. And it was
Speaker 1: almost like the Colts sort of forgot that those plays
Speaker 1: were you know, would likely be coming, and they didn't
Speaker 1: weren't really prepared for it, but they adjusted at halftime.
Speaker 1: I felt like, and in general, you have exactly the
Speaker 1: same offensive philosophy at the Rams as you have now
Speaker 1: with the Seahawks, with Shane Waldron going from John mcveigh's
Speaker 1: staff to Seattle. So the fact that that Colts defense
Speaker 1: just saw this approach and now they're, uh, they get
Speaker 1: it again, and they just they just did some adjustments
Speaker 1: in game, and now they get a whole week to
Speaker 1: continue to fine tune those adjustments. I think the sets
Speaker 1: of wealth for the Colts to get an outright win, honestly.
Speaker 1: Um and Uh. I guess the last point I'll bring
Speaker 1: up is, you know, the look ahead here was you
Speaker 1: know Rams minds one and a half, Rams minds two,
Speaker 1: and now you know, off of one week of action,
Speaker 1: they've now adjusted out past three. Uh. That's a huge
Speaker 1: win probability cestimate that I don't think is warranted based
Speaker 1: on what we saw from these two teams week one
Speaker 1: at all. Uh. And so I'll take the free points
Speaker 1: Indianapolis Drew's second play of the best bets. Mike your second,
Speaker 1: Now you get three and a half. Yeah, yeah, I said,
Speaker 1: I'll take the free I'll take the free points. Was
Speaker 1: my free point? Yes, sir, very dramatic. Paulsy debating a
Speaker 1: little bit here, but I'm gonna go with the Seattle Seahawks.
Speaker 1: Let's get your mic up there. Seattle Seahawks, Jason, Seattle Seahawks.
Speaker 1: It's hot? Are they laying six? Is that the number six?
Speaker 1: The Seattle Seahawk is laying Where the hell are they?
Speaker 1: They are laying six? Yeah, I would say six, Yes,
Speaker 1: six minus fifteen there's yeah, we'll give you six. I
Speaker 1: think that the Seattle was extremely efficient in Annapolis on
Speaker 1: offense when they had the ball, and the defense played
Speaker 1: better than I thought they would against forementioned bottom five
Speaker 1: cars and wins. Here's the thing that I don't think
Speaker 1: is an overreaction to Week one. The Titans are not good.
Speaker 1: The Titans are not winning that division. The Titans are
Speaker 1: not getting to the playoffs. The defense is still bad.
Speaker 1: It's always been bad. We forget how bad it was
Speaker 1: because they win eleven games and go to the playoffs.
Speaker 1: Now This was the thing that I thought would happen.
Speaker 1: I thought that Arthur Smith going to Atlanta would hurt
Speaker 1: them because he was the only guy that could make
Speaker 1: Tannehill decent. Tannehill couldn't start over a wide receiver at
Speaker 1: Texas and him he was a turnover machine in Miami
Speaker 1: and the last two years with Arthur Smith, Tannehill has
Speaker 1: been a top five quarterback statistically. You saw him. I
Speaker 1: thought their game plan was lost on offense. You didn't
Speaker 1: get Henry to have any impact on the game. And
Speaker 1: the biggest thing to me is you're down seventeen and
Speaker 1: halftime and you put up nothing in the second half
Speaker 1: at home and your home opener, you don't even dent
Speaker 1: into the into the cardinal lead at all. You know,
Speaker 1: I'm I'm down on them, And I thought the Seahawks.
Speaker 1: Now you get fans back to Seattle, a place where
Speaker 1: you didn't have fans as year. They to the Giants
Speaker 1: at all last year. I think that that rabid fan
Speaker 1: base is worth a few points here. And I think
Speaker 1: I made this number seven coming off a week one,
Speaker 1: so I'll lay I don't love to play, but I'll
Speaker 1: lay this six here. I'm gonna be using them in
Speaker 1: teasers and money line Parlot's Seattle, they couldn't even garbage
Speaker 1: time when they were getting where they when they were
Speaker 1: in the in the huge premat, you thought for sure,
Speaker 1: for sure Tennessee would get at least late. See my
Speaker 1: non overreaction overreaction a week one was the opposite side.
Speaker 1: I think Arizona is for real. Like I, I almost
Speaker 1: want to go out and get futures of them. I
Speaker 1: think I will. Um Russell Wilson eighteen of two fifty
Speaker 1: four last week, four touchdowns, no picks. He was sacked
Speaker 1: three times. He's eleventh career game with four plus touchdowns
Speaker 1: and not picks. That's the seventh most all time. And
Speaker 1: in the first half, which is wheready Katie bar the door.
Speaker 1: He was nine of eleven for one sixties six and
Speaker 1: three touchdowns against who did Seattle play last week? Real
Speaker 1: quick Indianapolis? That's right, um um I am? What's the
Speaker 1: what's the Buffalo Miami line? Todd? Is it still three
Speaker 1: and a half Little Bills or minus three and a
Speaker 1: half Give me the Dolphins plus three and a half?
Speaker 1: Um Las Vegas. Chris and I talked about this a
Speaker 1: little bit yesterday on a numbers game um. Last week,
Speaker 1: Buffalo six point home favorites against Pittsburgh. They end up
Speaker 1: losing largely on the strength of a special teams touch
Speaker 1: in the block punt um. In that game in the
Speaker 1: fourth quarter, Pittsburgh scored seventeen points in the fourth quarter.
Speaker 1: And now the Bills on the road against the Dolphins
Speaker 1: only dropped down two and a half points to three
Speaker 1: and a half. Well, this is minus nine and a
Speaker 1: half if you think about it, this is minus nine
Speaker 1: and a half at home. So they're saying Bills minus
Speaker 1: six against the Steelers, now minus nine and a half
Speaker 1: if they were at home against Miami. It's cuckoo. If
Speaker 1: I could have continued, I would have said the exact
Speaker 1: same thing. That's exactly right. And so I do think
Speaker 1: that Brian Flores and that coaching staff are really, really good.
Speaker 1: I know there's this knock on the Dolphins. Maybe it's
Speaker 1: justifiable where it tends to be a little more smoke
Speaker 1: in mirrors when you look at a box score than
Speaker 1: it does for other teams, But at some point, um,
Speaker 1: when it happens time and time again, I'm not so
Speaker 1: sure it's smoking mirrors. It's actually they just figured out
Speaker 1: some good in game coaching, and I figured out optimal
Speaker 1: ways to win ball games to US seven and three. Now,
Speaker 1: I know that will blow Michael Lombardi's head off his
Speaker 1: body because I know the jury still out on to A.
Speaker 1: But you're giving me the three in the hook here.
Speaker 1: Given that point spread, Cork, I will happily take the
Speaker 1: Dolphins in a division game, and if I lose by three,
Speaker 1: it lose by three still a winning bet. I'll take
Speaker 1: the Dolphins plus three and a half day. I love
Speaker 1: your pick, go I. I don't have the balls to
Speaker 1: do it, but I do love the pick because it's
Speaker 1: ridiculous that the Bills would be minus nine and a
Speaker 1: half at home against Miami and Flores. It throw out
Speaker 1: the statistics. Remember Belichick used to not have such great
Speaker 1: statistics that yet he would win every game. He would
Speaker 1: cover every single game, and people are like, well, wait,
Speaker 1: don't understand how is this happening in the New England's
Speaker 1: with yards for play. It's or As is one of
Speaker 1: those guys. He has something down, he has something yeared out.
Speaker 1: We had an NFL modeler with when I used to
Speaker 1: work with Dr Bob. We had a guy who did
Speaker 1: NFL and every week his model would come up, Oh,
Speaker 1: I gotta fade the Patriots. So I gotta fade the
Speaker 1: Patriots like every weekend. Finally, Captor week ten, Jerusal lapic
Speaker 1: is du probably knows this with the models. After week ten,
Speaker 1: week eleven, we had told him, We're like, and I
Speaker 1: can't Mike, I believe was his name. Mike. You gotta
Speaker 1: just you gotta remove this from the equation. There's just
Speaker 1: there's something that's not being picked up. It's Bill Belichick,
Speaker 1: and it's just it's it's it was a truism, and
Speaker 1: I think the Dolphins would definitely get that feel with Flores.
Speaker 1: Now you're this is more than one year now that
Speaker 1: he has shown us. You know something's going on here. Yes,
Speaker 1: I agree, Drew number three, What do I like on
Speaker 1: this board? I'm gonna go like a lot? Well, I
Speaker 1: played five sides this week. Does that concern you when
Speaker 1: you like a lot? By the way, is there's a
Speaker 1: little voice in your head that's like, oh no, I
Speaker 1: like too much? No? You know, okay, Well it's more
Speaker 1: I'm more nervous and I gotta force a couple. You know.
Speaker 1: It's uh, it's it's the other way around. Um, I liked.
Speaker 1: I liked I'm not gonna take the paths because I
Speaker 1: like the Todd's breakdown. That was fair. I agree with
Speaker 1: that um, and I agreed with the Mike Seattle look
Speaker 1: as well. I'm gonna go with the Minnesota Vikings. Currently,
Speaker 1: the consensus number there is three and a half. Again,
Speaker 1: I don't disagree with Gil's point in general that Arizona
Speaker 1: is for real, uh, and adjusting them up after their
Speaker 1: performance in your power numbers is fine. That is a
Speaker 1: completely fair point of view. This is still too big
Speaker 1: of a number when you consider that the Arizona defense
Speaker 1: really made their you know, made Hay with you know,
Speaker 1: it's just a standout performance from Chandler Jones in that game,
Speaker 1: got a couple of huge, high leverage turnovers that swung
Speaker 1: win probability early. Uh. And then uh, you know, Tennessee's defense,
Speaker 1: like Mike had brought up, is so poor that they're
Speaker 1: going to make the opposing quarterbacks that they play all
Speaker 1: season long look like m VP candidates in my opinion,
Speaker 1: And uh, this is a little bit tougher test. Minnesota's
Speaker 1: defense isn't all that much better than what we saw
Speaker 1: from them last year. Despite all of their off season
Speaker 1: acquisitions and some of the players coming back off of
Speaker 1: COVID UH time off. But I will say that this
Speaker 1: is going to be a more difficult UM ask of
Speaker 1: Kyler Murray and click Cliff Kingsbury to go uh and
Speaker 1: score thirty plot points here. Uh. And realistically, you have
Speaker 1: still Justin Jefferson and Adam Finland performing at all pro
Speaker 1: level with um Kirk Cousins who can do it under
Speaker 1: pressure as we've seen throughout his career. UH. And I
Speaker 1: think Minnesota is set up well to either um you know,
Speaker 1: get the early lead, uh and play from a head,
Speaker 1: which is the where where they are their best, or
Speaker 1: you know, come through the back door here. As long
Speaker 1: as I'm getting the hook on three so UM, I
Speaker 1: played this one earlier in the week at four and
Speaker 1: a half, it's now moved into three and a half.
Speaker 1: I think that's directionally the correct move here. My fair
Speaker 1: price in this game is too So anytime I can
Speaker 1: be on the right side of three, I will be happy.
Speaker 1: And Minnesota at plus three and a a half, Minnesota three
Speaker 1: and a half. So Drew, your three were once again
Speaker 1: they were UH stealers, Ye stealers, UM six plus three
Speaker 1: and a half and Vikings plus thing half. Alright, Mikey,
Speaker 1: I have the same pig as Todd. I like the
Speaker 1: Patriots Patriots this week, and I'll lay the six. UM.
Speaker 1: I wasn't impressed with the Jets here. Here's what I
Speaker 1: think they lost by five. I know they were on
Speaker 1: the road and it's their opening game, but I think
Speaker 1: the Patriots was no, it wasn't. They had a back
Speaker 1: door touch, but they did nothing in the first half
Speaker 1: at all. Didn't the Jets receivers drop a lot of
Speaker 1: passes though, like that could have been a little better.
Speaker 1: I believe the Patriots offense is clearly superior to Carolina's offense,
Speaker 1: and I think the Patriots defense is clearly superior the
Speaker 1: Carolina's defense. All right, So I'm gonna get a number
Speaker 1: that's similar. Is similar. I know they're on the road,
Speaker 1: it's similar to the margin of victory of the last
Speaker 1: game against an inferior team. UM, And so I agree
Speaker 1: with Todd here, Dodd, uh, I'll take under forty five
Speaker 1: in the Denver game, UM under forty five and Teddy
Speaker 1: two gloves versus UM Jacksonville. Jacksonville's offense was not very good.
Speaker 1: I don't know whether Houston Texans have a good defense,
Speaker 1: or they don't have a good defense. But I was
Speaker 1: not impressed with whatever Jacksonville was throwing out there. Uh,
Speaker 1: this did not look like ready for prime time offense
Speaker 1: to me. And I thought Denver's defense played well against
Speaker 1: the Giants, and now you're gonna ask the Denver defense
Speaker 1: to go play Jacksonville, which I think is even worse
Speaker 1: than the Giants. And the Giants couldn't score on Denver.
Speaker 1: So I'm thinking Denver is gonna go into you know,
Speaker 1: they're gonna play real conservative with Teddy two Gloves. Vic
Speaker 1: Fangio fits that mold. He's the defensive coach. He's like
Speaker 1: just first, like Mike said, first, do no harm, the
Speaker 1: Socratic oath, and that's what my my friend Teddy two
Speaker 1: Gloves like to do. He likes to first do no
Speaker 1: harm and just let's not make any mistakes, place solid defense,
Speaker 1: and get out of here with like a twenty three
Speaker 1: to thirteen win or something. You know, that's the kind
Speaker 1: of that's the kind of Teddy two loves type of
Speaker 1: type of game. I don't think Jacksonville is gonna be
Speaker 1: very successful in offense, and I don't think Denver's gonna,
Speaker 1: you know, light the board up because they're gonna play
Speaker 1: a conservative, So I'm gonna try to go under. I
Speaker 1: have forty five and a half someplace forty five four
Speaker 1: and a half, so I'll take forty five to be fair.
Speaker 1: Under forty five Denver against the Jags. Hippocratic Socratic. Socratic
Speaker 1: is for teachers, Socrates about protecting each child, and Socrates
Speaker 1: that whatever the oath is, thou shalt not throw an interception.
Speaker 1: That's the point. That's the wish, wish Nevick. Oh, if
Speaker 1: I believe that is all right for my third I
Speaker 1: so badly want to take the Atlanta Falcons plus the
Speaker 1: points at Tampa. I really do, But I just can't
Speaker 1: do it again, can't. I just can't do it um
Speaker 1: in the end. And and by the way, I also
Speaker 1: wanted to take the under in tonight's game the Giants
Speaker 1: in Washington, even at forty and a half, because I
Speaker 1: think it's gonna be a slog fest tonight on Thursday
Speaker 1: Night football, But I did not. Ultimately, what I end
Speaker 1: up with is and Drew with apologies. Drew and I
Speaker 1: are gonna be APO on the Rams and the Colts
Speaker 1: three and a half. I just really, I'm just trying
Speaker 1: to picture you close your eyes and your picture that
Speaker 1: Carson Wentz offense against Darren Donald in that defense. And
Speaker 1: you're right about Todd, You're right about Chicago. That was
Speaker 1: a weird first half on Sunday night where the Bears
Speaker 1: did make some hay against the Rams, and it was
Speaker 1: it was a strange first half because it was even
Speaker 1: you know, in that interception took place in the end
Speaker 1: zone for the Rams, where you're like, wow, this is
Speaker 1: the scenario where the Bears could be leading this game.
Speaker 1: But I just ultimately think that uh Sean McVan that
Speaker 1: offense are gonna put up enough points to outlast the
Speaker 1: Colts offense. And so while I don't think it's a blowout,
Speaker 1: I think the Rams do just enough to get that number.
Speaker 1: And really, honestly, I had trouble coming up with my
Speaker 1: third favorite, so I don't like it as much as
Speaker 1: the first two, but ultimately that's the one that I
Speaker 1: feel the most comfortable with, as opposed to say, the
Speaker 1: Atlanta Falcons plus the twelve and a half. By the way,
Speaker 1: in recency, I believe you were heads up with Drew
Speaker 1: Dinseck and some tennis matches, and he went against the
Speaker 1: Great Gilly god of tennis ticks and God burned did
Speaker 1: not which match, I can't remember which ones. There's a couple,
Speaker 1: but let me just tell you about Drew Dinseck. Drew
Speaker 1: Dins has been betting tennis before betting tennis. Was cool,
Speaker 1: isn't that right? Drew? I can't hear we lost Drew.
Speaker 1: We lost Drew. We can't hear Drew. We need Drew's response.
Speaker 1: You're back. I got so excited talking tennis. Yeah, let
Speaker 1: me go back to our text chain, because Gill and
Speaker 1: I text tennis from time to time. Go back to like, say,
Speaker 1: let we'll go back to Layton late May and we
Speaker 1: were talking about Djokovic Nadal at the French Open. I
Speaker 1: was like, I don't know, my good I just said,
Speaker 1: you know, I got I got Joker to win the French,
Speaker 1: win Wimbledon, and then lose to Medvedev in the US
Speaker 1: Open finals. I was I must have been I must
Speaker 1: have been fasting that day because the clairvoyance was was
Speaker 1: with me and I stuck to my guns on Medvedev
Speaker 1: and ultimately, uh that was That was one of the
Speaker 1: bigger wins I've had one so far, so I was
Speaker 1: pretty fired up about that. But on the women's side
Speaker 1: of the US Open, I think I lost head to
Speaker 1: head against Gil five times I had had. I wasn't.
Speaker 1: I wasn't even I was nowhere close to fair on
Speaker 1: either of the two teenagers that made the final. So
Speaker 1: I got Gil. We should all get on the colts. Well,
Speaker 1: it's a different sport. It's an entirely different arena, that's
Speaker 1: for sure. We've done all the best did very well
Speaker 1: at the US Open. I did very well hardcourt season.
Speaker 1: I lost. It was a thirty unit hardcore. I lost.
Speaker 1: It was luck. It was all luck, that's right. I
Speaker 1: lost needle in a haystack. I lost one match, but
Speaker 1: I got off of it. I had a lot of
Speaker 1: money I thought. I I thought that Sabo Linka could
Speaker 1: handle this Fernandez served and she couldn't handle that serve
Speaker 1: down the middle. So immediately I got off of it
Speaker 1: because it became a flip at a coin flip of
Speaker 1: a match when she couldn't handle that lefty serve down
Speaker 1: the tea. I thought she'd dominate that server, verson she couldn't.
Speaker 1: Sabolanca people love to bet Sabolanca, but until she I mean,
Speaker 1: I don't know if she's ever gonna get I also
Speaker 1: thought she was mentally weaker than the teenager in that match.
Speaker 1: She showed all the frustration. Yeah, she got at a
Speaker 1: little push. That's exactly Drew. I want to do a
Speaker 1: slam podcast on beating the book feed. I hope you
Speaker 1: will join me. I really did me you, Dan Weston
Speaker 1: will have a ball all right, somebody else wants I
Speaker 1: would love to do that. What did you say? Nobody else?
Speaker 1: Nobody else? Unlets use Yeah, nobody else ever asked me
Speaker 1: to do. Test POSTA did a couple of great previews.
Speaker 1: She's teaching at LSU today, Pamela, Mom, did you see that?
Speaker 1: I gotta tell Matt Brown and ls. She's speaking at
Speaker 1: a course on sports betting at l s U today.
Speaker 1: Tweed about it. Wow, I gotta tell Matt Um. Yeah. No,
Speaker 1: we totally have to do that. And that's a That's
Speaker 1: another point too. It doesn't matter how much fortune we
Speaker 1: make in tennis or how great these baseball pennant races are.
Speaker 1: No one cares. It's just what no one cares you made?
Speaker 1: Who cares? I want to make and lose money at football? Alright?
Speaker 1: Final one question before the final two questions, is teaser
Speaker 1: of the Wee Todd your teaser of the week? You started, Okay,
Speaker 1: I'm gonna go in Teaserville. I'm gonna go with road teams.
Speaker 1: I know you're not supposed to do it, but I
Speaker 1: don't care. I'm gonna take the Denver Broncos to win
Speaker 1: the game over the Jaguars. I already said, why you know,
Speaker 1: come on, Urban Meyer, give me a break. Uh. Patriots
Speaker 1: will be my other pick. I just don't see Belichick
Speaker 1: losing to the Jets. So I know these two teams
Speaker 1: are on the road, and by the way you check
Speaker 1: your money lines, you might be able to do this
Speaker 1: better and as a money line. But Broncos and Patriots
Speaker 1: at pick them, both of them. Give me those drew. Yeah,
Speaker 1: last week was the teaser delight. Uh, there were there
Speaker 1: were so many choices, honestly, and this week there's only
Speaker 1: one an advantage leg on the board in Cincinnati. Thankfully.
Speaker 1: I see a little bit of value there, as you know,
Speaker 1: without even the six points. But I'll happily take Cincinnati
Speaker 1: out past seven. Uh So Cincinnati eight and a half
Speaker 1: is the easy call. Uh, And yeah, I'll do something
Speaker 1: a little controversial here. I'll pair that with Green Bay
Speaker 1: at the current eleven. Bring that down to five. Just
Speaker 1: get me across the touchdown. With this Green Bay team
Speaker 1: against Detroit, I think that's probably one of the um
Speaker 1: it's one of the more lopsided matchups. And the fact
Speaker 1: that people got that backdoor with Detroit in week one
Speaker 1: I think has thrown a lot of the stench off
Speaker 1: exactly how bad that team the Green The San Francisco
Speaker 1: forty Niners led the Detroit lines by twenty four points
Speaker 1: with two minutes left in the game, and next thing
Speaker 1: you knew, San Francisco excuse me, Detroit had the ball
Speaker 1: down eight at the Niners twenty four yard line in regulation.
Speaker 1: Just incredible. They of course, they recovered an onside kicking there,
Speaker 1: which only happened four times all the last It's a
Speaker 1: huge result for us. Was its close nine and a half.
Speaker 1: There's a lot of people like, oh, what a bad beat,
Speaker 1: and the seven and a half was there all summer long?
Speaker 1: Of course, yeah, of course, you know what. I don't
Speaker 1: go with people with that, Oh you should have bought
Speaker 1: it earlier. Okay, fine, that's true, but it's still a
Speaker 1: bad beat. When the other team gets in damn on site.
Speaker 1: Kick my god, you want to argue on Yon kipor
Speaker 1: on everything. I'm just saying, it's um for me, New England, Cincinnati,
Speaker 1: Me Cincinnati Steelers. Oh wait wait wait wai New England,
Speaker 1: New England, Cincinnati for me and Cincinnatius eat and a
Speaker 1: half and mikey is I'm Cincinnati plus sat and a
Speaker 1: half Steelers pick them? Steelers teas down to basically basically
Speaker 1: just have to beat or not basically just have to
Speaker 1: beat Vegas. And you even have like a half it
Speaker 1: was it a half point or one and a half?
Speaker 1: Does he get Steelers are because it's the same as Patriots,
Speaker 1: same as Brown that's they're all down to a pick
Speaker 1: because we have ties wind correct correct alright, because you
Speaker 1: have different No, no, you don't. You know what about
Speaker 1: the survivor we're going to talk about survivor? Oh yeah,
Speaker 1: what would be your survivor pick? That's right. I'm sorry, Drew,
Speaker 1: if you had to Drew, what would be a survivor here?
Speaker 1: I'm fine taking the Packers out this week? Me too, Yeah,
Speaker 1: that's fine fine with me. I think I think you
Speaker 1: need to save Cleveland. Um, there's a reasonable chance that
Speaker 1: that that Cleveland is your pick against the Packers and Christmas.
Speaker 1: If something happens Dan Rogers with this week offensive line indoor,
Speaker 1: with his potential exit from green Bay, that might be
Speaker 1: Jordan's love season for all we know. Yeah, I am,
Speaker 1: I have no I get it, there's a green Bay
Speaker 1: thing on Christmas. I'm playing the Packers this week and
Speaker 1: just moving on. And if you beat me, you beat me. Mike,
Speaker 1: I'm either gonna I mean, I wasn't going to do that,
Speaker 1: but now that you're saying that, yeah, but I give
Speaker 1: it opinion. I won with my pick. I get if
Speaker 1: the man has theoretically compete, right, I just want to say, Todd,
Speaker 1: you're in. It's still right, Yeah you are. You have
Speaker 1: how many entries? Just one? I had the Rims, you
Speaker 1: had the Rams. Okay, and that's what I would have
Speaker 1: done theoretically, one with the Rams. So where are you
Speaker 1: going this week? Dodd? No, your first go ahead? Oh jeez,
Speaker 1: I would do it. I would take the football team tonight.
Speaker 1: I would wall here in this spot. Wow. That's why,
Speaker 1: when you're theoretical, you can do that exactly person, you're
Speaker 1: talking me into green Bay. I was worried about the
Speaker 1: Christmas stuff. Um, you're talking to me in the Green
Speaker 1: Bay now. But before I was getting talked into Green Bay,
Speaker 1: I was thinking about the Denver Broncos because I looked
Speaker 1: at their schedule and there's not that many times you're
Speaker 1: gonna want to take the Denver Broncos the rest of
Speaker 1: the year, and this might be one of the few
Speaker 1: times you're gonna get an opportunity to take the Denver Broncos.
Speaker 1: So I was thinking about taking them against the Jaguars instead,
Speaker 1: and then you can keep the Packers live for later. Um.
Speaker 1: The other team that I was thinking about it was
Speaker 1: another team that I didn't think there was that many
Speaker 1: opportunities to take, was the Patriots. But I think there's
Speaker 1: other there's better opportunities to take the Patriots. So I
Speaker 1: was thinking about the Uh, I still might take the Broncos.
Speaker 1: I'm not I think you need Denver live next week.
Speaker 1: They got their home opener against the Jets. They'll be
Speaker 1: like nine point favorites if they hold Serve this week. Yeah,
Speaker 1: I was looking at the thing though I thought there
Speaker 1: was somebody better. Um, I'm not sure. Let me look
Speaker 1: at my grid. But Houston plays Caroline on Thursday, Baltimore
Speaker 1: plays Detroit. Mike's got a show to do. Todd, just
Speaker 1: pick one, Okay, forget it. I just I said to
Speaker 1: take the Broncos. Okay, I'll take the Broncos. He'll burn them.
Speaker 1: Do you think do you think Jacksonville is gonna be
Speaker 1: the team that everybody picks on this year in Survivor?
Speaker 1: They I think that they thought it would be Houston,
Speaker 1: and after week one now they might be Jackie Jacksonville.
Speaker 1: All right, final two questions. So I guess you didn't
Speaker 1: want to hear the Young Kipper massacre story. There's no
Speaker 1: you don't have time. You could tell it after I leave.
Speaker 1: I've heard it. We'll finish with the Young Kipper mascuer um. Okay,
Speaker 1: So which is awesome? So all right? Uh the big
Speaker 1: Face rites, which is most likely in your opinion, to
Speaker 1: lose outright the candidates. The biggest favorites on the board,
Speaker 1: of course, are the aforementioned Green Bay Packers, who are
Speaker 1: double digit favorites against Detroit. Obviously, there's also double digit
Speaker 1: favorites with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers against the Falcons. And
Speaker 1: I wish this wouldst popping up on my screen and
Speaker 1: Cleveland double digits favorites double digit favorites rather against Houston.
Speaker 1: Are there any six and a half or graders? Besides that,
Speaker 1: I don't believe there are. So those are the only
Speaker 1: those are the only choices. One of those big favorites
Speaker 1: loses outright, who's the most likely? Drew? I see, I
Speaker 1: thought I was gonna have a great segue and talk
Speaker 1: to you about how Jacksonville is going to be Denver
Speaker 1: but only six point favorites. But but I like that,
Speaker 1: What do you think they could? I do? I mean
Speaker 1: this game? You know, one week ago you could have
Speaker 1: laid one and a half with Denver. You know, the
Speaker 1: the entire summer goes by, and we grade these two
Speaker 1: teams as about equal, and what happens in week one?
Speaker 1: Denver loses. Jerry Judy, I don't understand why we're adjusting
Speaker 1: so aggressively off of one outcome. And I get it.
Speaker 1: Trevor Lawrence looked terrible. He looked terrible, But guess what
Speaker 1: he was a rookie quarterback with a rookie head coach
Speaker 1: and his opening NFL start on the road. Like how
Speaker 1: many times have we seen that before? Like every single time?
Speaker 1: Like paid Manning probably looked like trash and his his
Speaker 1: opening start on the road whatever, So you know that
Speaker 1: there's not I'm I'm fine passing on uh you know,
Speaker 1: you know, giving him a pass on that. But yeah,
Speaker 1: this six points with the Jacks is just it's just egregious.
Speaker 1: I don't think any of those those three guys. I
Speaker 1: hope you guys are wrong. I don't think you're crazy
Speaker 1: at all. I would agree that if that was eligible,
Speaker 1: that would be the third choice. That would be the case.
Speaker 1: They got to go back to back road games, just
Speaker 1: for giggles. If it's just the three double digit ones,
Speaker 1: he's muted again. Oh, he's muted again. Drew. Let's get
Speaker 1: let's get Drew back. I don't think the other I
Speaker 1: don't think the other three teams have any realistic likelihood
Speaker 1: of losing. But I agreed with Gil that the number
Speaker 1: for Tampa Bay Atlanta is bonkers, like there's no math
Speaker 1: And again going back to the math model, there's no
Speaker 1: math model in the world that is telling anyone to
Speaker 1: bet Tampa Bay at that number, Like it's like almost
Speaker 1: I don't know what you would have to how how
Speaker 1: skewed you would have to be off market? To say
Speaker 1: that that Tampa Bay price is fair. But I didn't
Speaker 1: walk to the window in bed Atlanta this week. No way. Yeah,
Speaker 1: that's basically my attitude with it too. Alright, well, can
Speaker 1: we scrap at that Taylor? But wait, my man, Tyrod Taylor,
Speaker 1: who was my pick of the week last week, is
Speaker 1: going against the Brownies. And I'm not saying that they're
Speaker 1: gonna win or anything, but the stranger things have happened
Speaker 1: with that dumb idiot Baker Mayfield, who's playing much better.
Speaker 1: We have to give him credit, but he is an
Speaker 1: idiot and um, and so you never know, you never know,
Speaker 1: Houston Texans maybe. By the way, are the Houston Texans
Speaker 1: really this horrendous? I mean, Tyrod Taylor was a playoff quarter.
Speaker 1: Are they drew though? Are they? I Mean? I do
Speaker 1: a player level model, in a team level model, and
Speaker 1: both of them would tell me to lay the points
Speaker 1: with the Cleveland this week. Wow, Okay, Todd, would you
Speaker 1: do one of those ten point three teamers that you
Speaker 1: used to do at the South Point with these three
Speaker 1: big favorites and take the Packers down all of them
Speaker 1: under a field that was it will? That's actually a
Speaker 1: nice idea, Actually, I know you were very successful with
Speaker 1: him and Todd's. I think I was like nine and
Speaker 1: two that it's it's a rod it rhymes with Todd
Speaker 1: by the way, all right, last proper As long as
Speaker 1: you don't you know, you stab the guy in the
Speaker 1: heart with a needle. If you don't do that, he's
Speaker 1: got he's gotta go do the nuts or what's it called. Though,
Speaker 1: there's a big difference. There's a big difference though with Torod.
Speaker 1: Taylor's playing from a head or playing from behind, and
Speaker 1: if he's playing from behind in this game, then you've
Speaker 1: got big problem. I like that. That's a nice note too. Alright,
Speaker 1: game you want no part of your bizarro world? You
Speaker 1: pick aside and every one of these except one? What's
Speaker 1: the game you want no part of? Drew shoot? I
Speaker 1: should have had this cute a little bit better. H God,
Speaker 1: Dag go to New Orleans, Carolina. I don't know about
Speaker 1: how this COVID prep is gonna work out for them?
Speaker 1: All right, go to it. Thank you. You don't want
Speaker 1: him all you don't want them all Shaw doing a
Speaker 1: solo show today. Well, I'll still beat him to the studio.
Speaker 1: It's okay, all right, Thanks guys. Thank you, Mikey Todd.
Speaker 1: Which game you want no part of? I don't know
Speaker 1: about the RAMS cults because I know you guys have
Speaker 1: strong opinions on the RAMS Cults, But you know, I
Speaker 1: always like Frank Reich, and I don't know, is Carson
Speaker 1: Wench just gonna pull the whole team down and the
Speaker 1: Rams sort of didn't you know, I wasn't that impressed
Speaker 1: with them, So I don't want any part of that game.
Speaker 1: It's easy to pick one of these, like big spread games,
Speaker 1: like I mean, I could pick Detroit Green Bay and say, oh, well,
Speaker 1: it's eleven even though I think green Bay is gonna
Speaker 1: roll them. Eleven is still eleven um. But I think
Speaker 1: I think for me it might be tonight's game between
Speaker 1: the Giants and Washington, Like I just don't you know,
Speaker 1: I'm a lifelong Washington football team fan. I know how
Speaker 1: these kinds of games go sometimes and they're always close.
Speaker 1: Like I don't game right, whoever makes the big turnover
Speaker 1: the game? Yeah, I would say tonight Giants in Washington
Speaker 1: by the way of Washington loses. Man, they could be
Speaker 1: they could very easily be two and eight before the bye,
Speaker 1: but they have those five division games late. Is there
Speaker 1: only the Asian game before the last five weeks of
Speaker 1: the season, so they have a get out of jail
Speaker 1: free sequence at the end of the year that could
Speaker 1: still have them winning the division even if it's like
Speaker 1: four and eight or five and seven heading into it.
Speaker 1: So there's that um trust and Taylor heineck Man, he's
Speaker 1: not that bad. No, No, I love they I love
Speaker 1: the kid. But you know, he said one start so far,
Speaker 1: I'm excited to be sweating out my under forty two
Speaker 1: and a half when they go to overtime and I'm
Speaker 1: cheering for the tie. It smells like that had that
Speaker 1: happened last week. By the way, I caught the best
Speaker 1: number on under forty eight and a half in Cincinnati, Minnesota.
Speaker 1: We were also close to landing on forty eight. It
Speaker 1: was so close. The only game, the only game in
Speaker 1: the history of overtime in the NFL since ninety four
Speaker 1: when the instituteed it, that went to overtime with zero
Speaker 1: zero on the clock at the end of regulation and
Speaker 1: that was decided with a winner at zero zero at
Speaker 1: the end of overtime in the history of overtime in
Speaker 1: all those years, which is what forty seven years of
Speaker 1: football forty six plus. Alright, Todd, we conclude to days.
Speaker 1: Oh we lost her again. Let's get your back, Drew
Speaker 1: muted again. I'm You're back, Okay. Here was not Jewish,
Speaker 1: so he's not gonna appreciate the amazement of this story.
Speaker 1: But he's a he's a renaissance man. He's a very
Speaker 1: worldly individual. He's cosmopolitan. He will, he will appreciate your story.
Speaker 1: Please tell in on behalf of all Jews everywhere. The
Speaker 1: YOUM Kipper massacre which was not also we should probably
Speaker 1: have a disclaimer, was not an actual massacre. Just what
Speaker 1: Todd about it was it was a financial one. Uh.
Speaker 1: The Young Kipper massacre story is the greatest story proof
Speaker 1: that there that the world is really quantum mechanics and
Speaker 1: none of this is real at all. I can prove
Speaker 1: this to you by this story right here, and um.
Speaker 1: It starts in two thousand fourteen, when I didn't have
Speaker 1: a ton of money and I made a huge bet
Speaker 1: on Youme Kipper because it was October four, two thousand fourteen,
Speaker 1: and I wasn't doing Young Kipper anymore because I'm a
Speaker 1: renounced Jew, not a Jew. Renounced Jews we don't do
Speaker 1: yum kipper. And it was Saturday, and I went to
Speaker 1: my friend's house, who was like a fagazzy jew who
Speaker 1: was fasting. He's kind of like Gil. He was fasting,
Speaker 1: but he's not really a temple or anything. He's like
Speaker 1: a joker. But he was gonna sit there and watch
Speaker 1: the games with me. And so anyways, it's it's the
Speaker 1: afternoon game USC against Arizona State. I really need to
Speaker 1: win this bet because I made a big bet on
Speaker 1: the second half under thirty four and a half. You
Speaker 1: can check the play by play on this game. It's
Speaker 1: a crazy, crazy game. But anyways, um, what happened was
Speaker 1: I was so far ahead in this game there was
Speaker 1: no way they were gonna go over thirty four and
Speaker 1: a half in the second half. That when it became nightfall,
Speaker 1: yam kipper ends and I said to my friend, I'll
Speaker 1: go around the corner and get you sandwich. You were
Speaker 1: fasting all day. I'm not even worried about watching this
Speaker 1: game because I know I have it in the bag,
Speaker 1: and um, I needed to win the bet, but I
Speaker 1: wasn't even concerned. So I went around the corner, I
Speaker 1: got him a sandwich and came back. Whatever be it,
Speaker 1: be it as it may. There's a million crazy touchdowns
Speaker 1: at the end. There's on site kicks, there's all kinds
Speaker 1: of crazy nonsense. On site kick, run back for touch,
Speaker 1: all kinds of insanity happens, or on site kick in
Speaker 1: the next place, a touch craziness. Even with all the
Speaker 1: craziness that ensued, they still only had thirty four and
Speaker 1: they were a half point short. On the last play
Speaker 1: of the football game, Arizona State has the ball at
Speaker 1: the USC forty five. We all know it's coming. It's
Speaker 1: called a hail Mary, and they're gonna throw the hail Mary.
Speaker 1: They'll knock it down and I'll survive and they'll all
Speaker 1: be fine. So what happens is the quarterback for Arizona
Speaker 1: State goes back to pass. He throws the hail mary.
Speaker 1: Jalen Strong I believe, jumps up at the two yard
Speaker 1: line in front of a massive congregation of people, grabs
Speaker 1: the ball falls into the end zone for the touchdown.
Speaker 1: The Memorial Colisseum is absolutely quiet because it wins the
Speaker 1: game for Arizona State in the most shocking of games
Speaker 1: in a In a game the USC had in complete
Speaker 1: control of I mean absolutely complete control of this game
Speaker 1: and somehow they lost it. Everybody is stunned. Me and
Speaker 1: my friend are like, he can't. He starts laughing like
Speaker 1: a hyena because he can't even He's so ridiculously shocked
Speaker 1: at what happened, and he knows that I really needed
Speaker 1: to win this game. That he's just laughing like uncontrollably
Speaker 1: because it's unbelievable what just happened. Okay, fine, be that
Speaker 1: as it may. We've all heard bad beat stories, right,
Speaker 1: We've all heard bad beat stories. Big deal. It's a
Speaker 1: bad beat, right, Todd, what's so great about this story?
Speaker 1: Nothing so great about this Todd. Okay, fine, here comes
Speaker 1: the great part. So that's the end of that. It's
Speaker 1: just a bad beat. I really needed to win. I
Speaker 1: had no business losing, and I lost. Fine. Now it's
Speaker 1: two weeks later, and we used to go to this
Speaker 1: uh uh coffee being in Beverly Hills and sit out
Speaker 1: front all the time and argue about politics and was
Speaker 1: all craziness. But anyways, we would talk to all the
Speaker 1: people there. There was some guy there, h this old
Speaker 1: Hungarian guy who was in the holocausts, the Holocaust stories,
Speaker 1: I mean, crazy crazy stories. Anyways, we come friendly with
Speaker 1: him a little bit, and it turns out that he
Speaker 1: um was the grandfather of a guy in college football.
Speaker 1: So my friend says, hey, do you know this guy
Speaker 1: in college Now my friend doesn't know anything about college football, right,
Speaker 1: He sends me an email and says, do you know
Speaker 1: this guy in college football? I met his grandfather today?
Speaker 1: I said, are you like, is this candid camera? Are
Speaker 1: you joking about this or you seriously? Because he's never
Speaker 1: ever met any college football's grandfather's life and at the
Speaker 1: coffee shopper anywhere else, he tells me do you know
Speaker 1: this guy? Right? And he's being serious. He doesn't know
Speaker 1: who it is. I said, are you messing with me?
Speaker 1: He goes, no, No, I'm not messing with you. I
Speaker 1: just met this guy's grandfather. I said, that's the guy
Speaker 1: who through the hail Mary passed two weeks ago to
Speaker 1: destroy me and the young Kipper massacre. Do you remember that?
Speaker 1: He goes, No, way, that's the guy's grandfather is Mike
Speaker 1: Burka VICI is this guy's of all the guys in
Speaker 1: the world, We've never met anybody's grandfather who was in
Speaker 1: college football. He meets the guy that two weeks before. Okay,
Speaker 1: that's fine. It's still a crazy coincident. But now here's
Speaker 1: where it gets really spooked. So when he goes, oh,
Speaker 1: you gotta come over and meet Reuben. So I run
Speaker 1: over there and start talking to Reuben. Blah blah blah.
Speaker 1: We you know, it turns out the whole Holocaust is fine.
Speaker 1: Now he goes, He goes. She says he's got some
Speaker 1: crazy Holocaust stories too. I mean, don't get me fung.
Speaker 1: I won't even go into that. But anyways, so so
Speaker 1: now Rute, we're talking to Reuben, and Rubens go, oh, yeah,
Speaker 1: my my grandson. Yeah, Mike Burke reach. We used to
Speaker 1: go to all the games and blah blah blah. He goes, yeah,
Speaker 1: especially it was here in l A. Because the guy
Speaker 1: lives in l A. Right of course he's going to
Speaker 1: be at the coliseum. I said, oh, so you were
Speaker 1: at the game two weeks ago when they had the miracles.
Speaker 1: He goes, oh, you mean the Holy Moly. I go, no, no,
Speaker 1: Hail Mary. He calls it the Holy Mole because he's
Speaker 1: from you know, Hungary. He doesn't know. He goes, the
Speaker 1: Holy Moley. No, I wasn't at the game. I go,
Speaker 1: you go to all the games. But you weren't at
Speaker 1: the Holy Mole game. Why weren't you at the Holy
Speaker 1: Mole game? It's right here in l A and you
Speaker 1: live here. And now he used to go to all
Speaker 1: the games, and even in Arizona, because he goes, oh,
Speaker 1: I didn't go because it was young Kipper. I go, what,
Speaker 1: you're Jewish? He goes, yeah, yeah, I'm Jewish. I didn't
Speaker 1: go to the game because it was the Holm Kipper.
Speaker 1: I said, now wait a second, Now, your your daughter
Speaker 1: is Jewish and she's the mom of Mike work Recio.
Speaker 1: The Orthodox Jews they count only Judaism if it goes
Speaker 1: through the mom. We won't go into all that lineage nonsense,
Speaker 1: but the point is the Jews can't. The serious Jews
Speaker 1: only count you're Jewish if your mom is Jewish. Turns
Speaker 1: out Mike Bercovici is a Jew. Okay, Now I'm gonna
Speaker 1: tell you if you know anything about calling. You like analytics,
Speaker 1: Drew right, you like analytics? How many Jewish college football
Speaker 1: players are there the whole world? Zero point point point
Speaker 1: point zero zero zero, There's are one. There's none, There's none, exactly,
Speaker 1: And now not only is there the guy we needs grandfather.
Speaker 1: The only time we ever met anybody's grandfather is the
Speaker 1: guy the two weeks before through the Youme Kimper massacre pass.
Speaker 1: But wait, it gets better. He's a goddamn jew. Okay,
Speaker 1: kipper throws the Yo Kimper massacre. At that point, I
Speaker 1: was just like, Okay, pull the curtains back somehow, I
Speaker 1: know this can't be real. This is insane, Okay, And
Speaker 1: so that is the youme kipper Man massacre. Everybody Todd
Speaker 1: wish steps find his gambling story there is. That's awesome.
Speaker 1: That is you won't You won't. I bet a lot
Speaker 1: of college football back then. You won't convince me that
Speaker 1: CE team wasn't shaving points. Oh interesting, Well, there were
Speaker 1: a couple of just absolutely bananas losses that they had
Speaker 1: that season, you know, because they actually lost that game. Yeah,
Speaker 1: they lost out right. They had spread was that ten
Speaker 1: ten and halfish Cody Kessler was the quarterback, and um,
Speaker 1: you know what, it makes sense kind of what you're saying,
Speaker 1: because they they had the game totally in hand and
Speaker 1: then somehow, you know, it could have been that they
Speaker 1: were shaving points and then it got out of control
Speaker 1: because they you know, that was crazy that makes your
Speaker 1: story even better. The next week was the same sort
Speaker 1: of thing with they went at Arizona maybe uh, and
Speaker 1: it was the same sort of you know, mind melting
Speaker 1: how do they not cover kind of deal? Uh? Glad
Speaker 1: us a game and at halftime I remember it each time.
Speaker 1: That's awesome that that makes your story even better because
Speaker 1: there's a point shaving layer to it. Well, you know,
Speaker 1: it's funny that you say that, Drew, because I think
Speaker 1: with it, with the legalized sports gambling and everything, there's
Speaker 1: gonna be more and more hijinks, especially in college sports
Speaker 1: than ever before. Now. I know people, oh, Todd do
Speaker 1: be a conspiracy theories, But I sat with a NFL
Speaker 1: player in a sport book, a recent NFL player I'm
Speaker 1: not gonna say who it is, who was betting his
Speaker 1: ass off and telling me, oh, yeah, all the guys
Speaker 1: are betting when you were on a numbers game two
Speaker 1: three weeks ago. This is what I was talking about, right, Like,
Speaker 1: could it be that the thing that we didn't anticipate? Right,
Speaker 1: everybody everybody who's not a gamblers or all the kids
Speaker 1: are gonna be oh, they're gonna be compromise. It's not
Speaker 1: the kids it's the fact that you know what used
Speaker 1: to be a cute thing where Bill Snyder only knew
Speaker 1: about it, right, and Bill Snyder would for the boosters,
Speaker 1: that Kansas State would whatever the spread. Now that the
Speaker 1: unforeseen consequence, or at least I didn't foresee it, right,
Speaker 1: and I think most didn't. We had our, we had
Speaker 1: our we're on the wrong scent the sentence that now
Speaker 1: all these coaches are more aware of the point spread.
Speaker 1: And so, like you said when we were talking about it,
Speaker 1: You're like, it makes sense that they would actually want
Speaker 1: to please their alumni. By the way, every college football
Speaker 1: person that I had on the show, whether it's Adam
Speaker 1: Kramer or Chris Felika, whoever, they all agree with it
Speaker 1: except want Pete Feutack still protecting the shield. But everybody
Speaker 1: else thinks it's very reasonable, very But not only that
Speaker 1: these guys are all betting on the games even and
Speaker 1: that's like, whoko crazy. And this guy was telling me
Speaker 1: in college, I said, well, what about in college? He
Speaker 1: went to a Division one program, Uh, you know, pretty
Speaker 1: big name, and he goes, oh, yeah, we were all
Speaker 1: bet in college. I'm like, were they betting against their
Speaker 1: own team? It was no no, I don't think anybody
Speaker 1: did that, but they were all betting the games, and
Speaker 1: so what's to stop one of these college kids from
Speaker 1: getting in trouble and then starting to throw games. It
Speaker 1: happened in the past before there was all this crazy
Speaker 1: gambling going on, So it's probably gonna happen even more
Speaker 1: often now, and we're gonna see some crazy nonsense. I
Speaker 1: will say though, that like as we transition to a
Speaker 1: more illegalized market place and there's transparency between the you know,
Speaker 1: the programs and the you know n C double A
Speaker 1: in this case, and and the bookmakers, identifying unusual betting
Speaker 1: behavior becomes extremely easy. It comes like can't miss it,
Speaker 1: Like I've seen some I've seen some accounts that you know,
Speaker 1: they're they're playing you know, just donkey stuff on NonStop,
Speaker 1: and then all of a sudden, like uh, you know,
Speaker 1: corner kicks in Second League Mexico come through and you're like, okay,
Speaker 1: this is this is not legit, Like this is very
Speaker 1: very clearly like something is up. You know, like like right,
Speaker 1: you're right, it's easy to find. You know. What you're
Speaker 1: saying is a great point that it's going to be
Speaker 1: easier to find the the Shenanigans. Right, but still, these
Speaker 1: guys shouldn't betting on the games. I mean that's just craziness. Yeah, yeah,
Speaker 1: I mean that's how yeah they I completely agree with you,
Speaker 1: and I think almost all athletes the competitive nature of
Speaker 1: just being an athlete at the highest level, you end
Speaker 1: up getting into gambling one way or the other, presumably
Speaker 1: not on your sport, not on your team. Um. I
Speaker 1: know a lot of professional athletes are very heavy duty
Speaker 1: sports bettors. This isn't you know, this is a breaking news.
Speaker 1: But the but like, you know, what's going on in
Speaker 1: tennis with the Tennis Integrity Unit and like the fact
Speaker 1: that they're you know, putting up walls between you know,
Speaker 1: the regulator is in the books is stupid. Like they
Speaker 1: literally need to be going to those people to find
Speaker 1: unusual betting patterns on some of these challengers, you know
Speaker 1: challenger uh, you know, small stuff, double stuff like that
Speaker 1: if if you're if you have an account that's that's losing, losing,
Speaker 1: losing on you know, recreational stuff. And then all of
Speaker 1: a sudden, some hot sides are coming in on like
Speaker 1: you know GUIDs. You know, this doubles team is going
Speaker 1: to drop the fifth set in the second you know,
Speaker 1: this the fifth game in the second set, Like that's
Speaker 1: not you know, that's not educated guesswork, Like that's obviously uh,
Speaker 1: you know, professional fixed action. And they're like, yeah, there
Speaker 1: was that one ladies match recently you see, like the
Speaker 1: double faults that were so bloyant, Like yeah, totally. Jimmy
Speaker 1: mcarroll has been saying this for years, right, Jimmy McCarroll
Speaker 1: is like, we're the good guys. We're the guys that
Speaker 1: can point this stuff out quicker than anybody. Yeah, offering
Speaker 1: offering the action doesn't entice the betting, and doing it
Speaker 1: in the in the light of day, uh, makes it
Speaker 1: that much easier to identify the the suspect stuff in
Speaker 1: my opinion. Um, and yeah, I mean if if you
Speaker 1: had had legal bookmaking, legal game, you know, legal gaming
Speaker 1: in the United States and New Jersey and the Tim
Speaker 1: donaghi era and the NBA, like they would have been
Speaker 1: onto that stuff like that, Like it wouldn't they were
Speaker 1: onto the Arizona State remember the Arizona States Handle when
Speaker 1: all the kids came up from Arizona State to bed
Speaker 1: in the game and it came in a half time
Speaker 1: that was loose lips as opposed to they actually had
Speaker 1: information from some bookmakers because there's no there's a firewall.
Speaker 1: But you know there there's always been a firewall between
Speaker 1: the game. You know the game, you know, the bookmakers
Speaker 1: and the and the authorities, at least in the United
Speaker 1: States until you know, a couple of years ago. Yeah,
Speaker 1: the Arizona State was somebody get who was getting too
Speaker 1: bragged docious about it. What was that guy's name, not Smush,
Speaker 1: but he had some funny name Smith Headache. Smith was
Speaker 1: the headache. And then there was a Jewish kid who
Speaker 1: was like, Benny, you gotta do that? Why you gotta
Speaker 1: go what do you gotta go that? Are you gonna
Speaker 1: point that out? Because it's not my group. I'm gonna
Speaker 1: renounce Jews were different. I'm just kidding, um so so
Speaker 1: in a bowl on that though. I don't by the way,
Speaker 1: I don't think the ship. I actually don't think that
Speaker 1: the point him, I don't believe in the that that
Speaker 1: will become rampant because for all the reasons true statement.
Speaker 1: I do think the college football coaches, when a game
Speaker 1: is already decided, right, it's already there's the game win, loss,
Speaker 1: is already decided, and it just becomes down to a
Speaker 1: matter of the spread going either way. I do think
Speaker 1: those shenanigans will increase rapidly. I mean, it's but it's
Speaker 1: it is. There's if you're not doing that as a
Speaker 1: college coach, you're doing yourself and your program. Guess what
Speaker 1: like ESPN now there you know it's it's it's broadly
Speaker 1: painted across the board. Now everyone knows what you should
Speaker 1: win by, and if you don't win by that much,
Speaker 1: then you're gonna get downgraded in the you know, in
Speaker 1: the models and the voting and all that stuff on
Speaker 1: top of the teachers aren't in fact, you wonder you
Speaker 1: should be able to see if the bigger favorites are
Speaker 1: covering at a slightly higher rate now than they used
Speaker 1: to because of exactly what you're saying that we should
Speaker 1: see that in the numbers. In fact, you don't go
Speaker 1: ahead to you, I'm sorry, no, I let me. I'll
Speaker 1: think through my point. But yeah, what have you noticing
Speaker 1: that I have? I mean, I haven't noticed that. I'm
Speaker 1: just saying over a long period of time, if let's
Speaker 1: say you looked at all twenty five point favorites and
Speaker 1: above in the past they covered a certain percentage rate. Now,
Speaker 1: if we see what Gill is saying, which I agree
Speaker 1: with him a thousand percent, if we say what gill
Speaker 1: is saying is correct, we should see a higher percentage
Speaker 1: of those teams covering. No, totally totally anecdotal, but I
Speaker 1: believe outside of conference play, uh, the top tier programs
Speaker 1: they cover right for the double digit spreads is up
Speaker 1: in the kind of you know, the last probably probably
Speaker 1: five ten years in fact. The other sort of you know,
Speaker 1: kin to this is you wonder and we we may
Speaker 1: never find out about this, but you wonder if at
Speaker 1: some point in the future some coach who has a
Speaker 1: pretty decent win loss record ends up getting fired because
Speaker 1: he's not meeting the expectation of the spread. Serious Yeah, yeah,
Speaker 1: I mean not saying that that was that right, but
Speaker 1: I'm just saying we'll never find out about that. But
Speaker 1: you've gotta figure with all those schools, a hundred thirty
Speaker 1: d one schools, at some point somebody is going to
Speaker 1: get fired for yeah, you were good, but you weren't
Speaker 1: that good, you know what I mean? Well, the truth
Speaker 1: is that's what they should be judged by. They should
Speaker 1: be judged there is a school of thought that says
Speaker 1: you should be judgment by that. That's right, gentlemen, we
Speaker 1: should go. I appreciate it. Todd wished from his mom's
Speaker 1: cork attic at Pittsburgh, PA. And Drew, thank you so much. Man.
Speaker 1: We'll do it again this year. If you're willing to
Speaker 1: do another megapod later this year, we'll have you back,
Speaker 1: um because we so appreciate you being on here and
Speaker 1: all the numbers, game appearances, Man, Deep Dive podcasts, Bet
Speaker 1: the Edge podcast, So Deep Dives with Andy Molitor, Bet
Speaker 1: the Edges with Sarah Perlman. We're all podcasts are available
Speaker 1: well Underscore Capital I leave anything. I'm sorry at t Wishnev.
Speaker 1: I'm so sorry at t Wishnev. You're right, that is
Speaker 1: a oversight on my part. Where you can watch wonderful
Speaker 1: tennis braggadocious videos from Todd beating on his barn storming tour,
Speaker 1: beating all kinds of opponents, Drew, did I leave out anything?
Speaker 1: What else are you involved? Oh? You got it man.
Speaker 1: That's although we uh were doing some new stuff on Peacock.
Speaker 1: We were doing a weekly weekly show now me and
Speaker 1: me and Sarah and uh we added Warren sharp to
Speaker 1: the next, Uh to talk a little NFL. Every week
Speaker 1: they put that on. It's on Friday nights and then
Speaker 1: it re airs on Saturdays and Sundays before the game.
Speaker 1: Uh do about It's about an hour long. We break
Speaker 1: down the best of and uh yeah, it should be
Speaker 1: should be pretty cool to see that grol what's the
Speaker 1: name of that blitzing the board, blitzing the board, another
Speaker 1: bt B blitzing the board, Drew did, Yeah, that's good.
Speaker 1: Yeah right, Yeah, that has a nice spring to it. Yeah,
Speaker 1: I Drew, I'll be pulling for cold plus three and
Speaker 1: a half pick to see gilly Ice go down hard there.
Speaker 1: You see see what it's just that. We'll lend it
Speaker 1: on that for Todd, God wished that for Judd. Say
Speaker 1: it everybody, Thanks for listening to the megapod. Good luck
Speaker 1: with all your best this weekend. Yeah,