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Speaker 1: Welcome to the Betting Crows PGA Podcast. I'm Pat Fitzmorris

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Speaker 1: along with Bo mcbrair. The Florida Swing is over. It's

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Speaker 1: time for the PGA Tours Texas.

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Speaker 2: Two step.

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Speaker 1: After quickly recapping the Valspar Championship, Bo and I are

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Speaker 1: going to give you a full betting preview of the

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Speaker 1: Texas Children's Houston Open. We'll tell you who's on our

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Speaker 1: early betting cards, and we will make a couple of

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Speaker 1: one and done picks. At the end of the show,

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Speaker 1: Victor Hoveland wins the Valspar Championship, defeating Justin Thomas by

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Speaker 1: one shot. Bo, I'm kicking myself. I didn't bet Hoveland

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Speaker 1: last week. I did bet Holand the two previous weeks

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Speaker 1: at the Arnold Palmer Invitational and the Players Championship when

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Speaker 1: we were getting a really good price on him, but

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Speaker 1: Hoveland missed the cut in those two events. He rolled

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Speaker 1: into the Valspar having missed the cut in three straight events,

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Speaker 1: and I got off the train at the wrong stop.

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Speaker 1: Hoveland was fifty to one last Monday, as odds got

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Speaker 1: even longer at some sports books later in the week.

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Speaker 1: Did you have any of Hovland?

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Speaker 2: Bo?

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Speaker 3: I thought about it. I almost even did a live

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Speaker 3: when he was a few shots back on Sunday. But

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Speaker 3: I was rooting for JT. I didn't root for JT

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Speaker 3: or Victor last week, and it bit me on both

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Speaker 3: of those because I was I mean, I've been telling

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Speaker 3: you all season long that Victor and JT are both

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Speaker 3: going to be back this year in full strength. Didn't

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Speaker 3: expect it to both be at the vals Bar, and

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Speaker 3: I didn't expect it to both happen at the same time.

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Speaker 3: So I guess we both suck.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, it was a fun final round. At one point

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Speaker 1: there was a four way tie at the top, with

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Speaker 1: about a dozen players within two shots of the lead.

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Speaker 1: There were veterans like Shane Lowry and Billy Horschel. There

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Speaker 1: were young guys like Rio Hisatsuni and Ricky Castillo. But

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Speaker 1: then the two biggest names from among the contenders surged

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Speaker 1: to the top of the leader board. Justin Thomas had

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Speaker 1: made the cut on the number, but then he shot

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Speaker 1: a torrid sixty five on Saturday, low round of the tournaments,

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Speaker 1: and he was seven under par through fifteen holes. On Sunday,

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Speaker 1: just red hot Thomas was twelve under par at that

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Speaker 1: point had a two shot lead but then the snake

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Speaker 1: pit got him. The three hole finishing stretch at the

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Speaker 1: Copperhead course is murderous. You talked about it last week.

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Speaker 1: Bo Thomas missed the fairway with his drives on sixteen

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Speaker 1: and eighteen wound up with bogies on both holes. Hoveland,

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Speaker 1: on the other hand, was a snake charmer. He birdied

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Speaker 1: the sixteenth and seventeenth holes to grab a late lead,

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Speaker 1: then hung on for the win with the gentleman's bogie

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Speaker 1: on the eighteenth. We saw the victor Hoveland were used

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Speaker 1: to sing. He had a rough start to the year.

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Speaker 1: Apparently he's on his third swing coach of twenty twenty

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Speaker 1: five and we're not even three months in. But Hoveland

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Speaker 1: seemed to be back to normal at the Valspar and Bo.

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Speaker 1: Copperhead might be one of my favorite most underrated venues

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Speaker 1: on the tour. Bayhill and Sawgrass get all the accolades

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Speaker 1: among the Florida courses, but Copperhead is such a good test.

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Speaker 1: It was playing firm and fast on Sunday, which made

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Speaker 1: for some really fun golf. Not so much fun for

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Speaker 1: some of the players, though. We saw temper tantrums from

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Speaker 1: Saheith Thigala Adam Hadwin, Pat and Kazaire. I guess watching

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Speaker 1: golf at Copperhead is more fun than playing golf at Copperhead.

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Speaker 2: Bo your thoughts on the Valspar.

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Speaker 3: It's one of my favorites too. I just like the

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Speaker 3: way that the Florida Swing lines up great golf courses

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Speaker 3: for these guys. And nothing against bay Hill or Sagrass.

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Speaker 3: They're legendary golf courses, but the Florida Swing is about

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Speaker 3: tough golf that's not tigerproofed, so to speak. They don't

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Speaker 3: do it through making the courses longer. They make it

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Speaker 3: through making the rough more difficult to deal with. The

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Speaker 3: greens are faster, the hazards are clearly in play. You

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Speaker 3: don't have to make a course eight thousand yards to

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Speaker 3: make it difficult for these guys. In fact, if you

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Speaker 3: make it longer, it just makes it more difficult for

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Speaker 3: the shorter hitters. The longer hitters love when you make

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Speaker 3: the golf courses longer because it just gives them more

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Speaker 3: of an advantage. The Florida Swing's great. The fact that

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Speaker 3: they were up with the valas Bar at Copperhead, we

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Speaker 3: saw exactly why that golf course is so much fun.

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Speaker 3: To watch because the snake pit is it is the

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Speaker 3: ultimate role reversal. And if we had Scott Hansen from

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Speaker 3: NFL Reds on here, he would be that that is

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Speaker 3: the witching hour of the of the Championship golf is

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Speaker 3: when wins become losses and losses become wins. You have

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Speaker 3: a great golf course with a three hole stretch. You

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Speaker 3: saw Justin Thomas kind of hold serve with what everybody

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Speaker 3: else is doing on the snake pit on Sunday, which

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Speaker 3: was miss the fairway on sixteen. You're pretty much scratching

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Speaker 3: to avoid double bogie, which he did very well. I

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Speaker 3: thought he was looking at a six there and he

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Speaker 3: saved five, and then he nearly holed out on seventeen

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Speaker 3: to save his part, just didn't do it. And then

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Speaker 3: Victor hits one of the best shots of the week

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Speaker 3: on sixteen inside a six feet from one to eighty

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Speaker 3: five in a in a tucked front right pin location

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Speaker 3: where nobody was even attacking that pin but Victor. Since

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Speaker 3: he was in that fairway. It's a really hard fair

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Speaker 3: way to find. It's an even tougher green to find.

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Speaker 3: I told you last week thirty six percent greens in

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Speaker 3: regulation on number sixteen, nicknamed Moccasin. He made it look

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Speaker 3: so easy, and that two shot swing between his birdie

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Speaker 3: and Justin Thomas's bogie that sixteenth hole made the difference

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Speaker 3: in the entire championship, and then seventeen and eighteen you

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Speaker 3: had a couple strokes difference there too. It flipped on

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Speaker 3: its head in the last hour of that championship. That's

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Speaker 3: what championship golf is all about.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, it was a really fun tournament and great to

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Speaker 1: see two of the best players in the world back

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Speaker 1: in peak form as we close in on the Masters,

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Speaker 1: the first major of the year. So really good to

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Speaker 1: see JT and Hoblin playing well. I know it's been

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Speaker 1: a long win drought for Justin Thomas. I don't think

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Speaker 1: that draft's gonna last much longer. He is playing some

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Speaker 1: really good golf. We saw him shoot that sixty two

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Speaker 1: at the Players Championship the previous week, the sixty five

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Speaker 1: on Saturday almost as impressive. JT has been playing lights out,

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Speaker 1: so unfortunately he's not in Houston this week, and we

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Speaker 1: will do a deep dive on the Houston Open in

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Speaker 1: just a moment.

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Speaker 3: But first, download the free betting pros app for iOS

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Speaker 1: So now we leave Florida and head west to Texas.

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Speaker 1: The Texas Children's Houston Open will be played at Memorial Park.

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Speaker 1: It's a par seventy that plays two seven, four hundred

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Speaker 1: and seventy five yards and with the Masters coming up

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Speaker 1: in a couple of weeks, Memorial Park is a pretty

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Speaker 1: good tune up for Augusta National. Well, so yeah, it's

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Speaker 1: on the long side, and as is the case with Augusta,

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Speaker 1: Memorial Park has generous fairways and manageable rough on Like

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Speaker 1: the Florida courses, it also has big, fast Bermuda green complexes.

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Speaker 1: You'll also see a lot of runoff areas around the

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Speaker 1: greens at Memorial Parks. Of the players are gonna have

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Speaker 1: to do some chipping off tight lies, just as they

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Speaker 1: will at Augusta. So Memorial Park is long, but there

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Speaker 1: is not a lot of water. We've been seeing tons

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Speaker 1: of hotter holes on the Florida courses. In Houston not

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Speaker 1: so much. There aren't many bunkers at Memorial Park either.

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Speaker 1: What you do get a lot of at Memorial Park

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Speaker 1: par threes. There are five of them and only three

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Speaker 1: par fives, so par three scoring is pretty important and

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Speaker 1: it's a good mix of distances. On the par threes.

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Speaker 1: There are a couple of real shorties. There's number two,

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Speaker 1: which is one hundred and sixty seven yards, Number fifteen

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Speaker 1: is just one fifty five, and they are also a

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Speaker 1: couple of long ones two hundred and sixteen yards and

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Speaker 1: two hundred and thirty seven yards really nice. Makes your threes.

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Speaker 1: Two of the three par fives are longer than six

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Speaker 1: hundred yards, so they may not be gettable in two

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Speaker 1: unless the wind is favorable. We also get a really

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Speaker 1: long opening hole at Memorial Park. Number one plays to

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Speaker 1: five hundred and twenty two yards, so players will immediately

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Speaker 1: be tested with the driver, and that's another feature. Memorial

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Speaker 1: Park bow long par fours, five of them are four

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Speaker 1: hundred and ninety yards or longer. The big hitters definitely

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Speaker 1: have an advantage here. The defending Houston Open champion Steven

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Speaker 1: Jaeger You finished minus twelve last year, one shot better

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Speaker 1: than Scotti Scheffler, Tony Fenow, Thomas Detree, Taylor Moore, and

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Speaker 1: Bo mcbeer favorite Alejandro Toasty. Tony Fenow won here in

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Speaker 1: a kkewalk in twenty twenty three, finished sixteen under par,

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Speaker 1: four shots clear of the field. Jason Kokrak finished ten

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Speaker 1: under par to win the twenty twenty two Houston Open.

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Speaker 1: Carlos Ortiz was minus thirteen when he won here in

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Speaker 1: twenty twenty one, and Lonto Griffin won the twenty twenty

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Speaker 1: HU Open by going fourteen under par. Jaeger Corac Ortiz,

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Speaker 1: Lanto Griffin. We've had some surprise winners here lately. Now

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Speaker 1: get ready for windy conditions in Houston this week. They

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Speaker 1: are expecting winds of fifteen to twenty five miles per

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Speaker 1: hour on Thursday, along with the chance of showers. Friday's

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Speaker 1: forecast is looking pretty dicey, with a chance of thunderstorms

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Speaker 1: and heavy rain. Winds are expected to be ten to

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Speaker 1: twenty miles per hour. The thunderstorms move out Saturday morning,

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Speaker 1: the temperatures climb into the low eighties and the winds

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Speaker 1: will blow at ten to twenty and on Sunday no

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Speaker 1: rain chance, but winds are again expected to be in

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Speaker 1: the ten to twenty mile an hour range. BO what

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Speaker 1: do you make of Memorial Park.

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Speaker 3: It's a new slot on the schedule. This is normally

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Speaker 3: where we would have the Accenture Matchplay event in Texas.

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Speaker 3: They decided to flip the schedule a bit and throw

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Speaker 3: the Texas Children's Houston Open in the slot. It's turned

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Speaker 3: into a really nice masters tune up a couple of

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Speaker 3: weeks before the big event. That's what I get out

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Speaker 3: of this is you didn't have something like that beforehand

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Speaker 3: before they moved this event. And that's why we see

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Speaker 3: Rory and Scottie here because they're not going to be

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Speaker 3: playing next week at the Valero Texas Open. That's more

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Speaker 3: of your like, okay, prior winners or top golfers. They're

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Speaker 3: already at Augusta when most of the other guys are

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Speaker 3: trying to get points at the Valero. This is your

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Speaker 3: master's tune up for the Champs and another opportunity for

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Speaker 3: some of these younger guys or guys that need status

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Speaker 3: to make the Masters, like we saw with Steven Jeger

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Speaker 3: last year, qualified for the Masters with the big win.

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Speaker 3: That's why you get a lot of surprises here because

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Speaker 3: you've got a couple of stragglers that come in here

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Speaker 3: wanting to get ready for Augusta that are already here.

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Speaker 3: But this event is all about the difficulty and how

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Speaker 3: well can somebody try to get into the Masters a

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Speaker 3: couple of weeks left. I'm excited because this golf course

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Speaker 3: is hard enough to challenge the good players that are

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Speaker 3: here that are already at Augusta, but it's also accessible

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Speaker 3: enough length wise, skill position wise. What we need for

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Speaker 3: somebody to maybe make a surprise in Augusta in a

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Speaker 3: couple of weeks based off their win here. This is

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Speaker 3: a springboard type tournament.

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Speaker 2: Yeah.

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Speaker 1: Is there one particular stat you pay close attention to

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Speaker 1: bow like with your model? Is there one category where

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Speaker 1: you really turn up the dials? Yeah?

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Speaker 3: The one I really focused on was a ball striking.

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Speaker 3: It's a It's an all encompassing stat that encompasses off

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Speaker 3: the tea work, approach, work, and around the green. It's

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Speaker 3: pretty much everything about putting and shipping, so's it's something

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Speaker 3: where you compile all the ball striking stats, but then

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Speaker 3: you also have to kind of correlate it with putting,

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Speaker 3: because I think putting is more of a streaky stat

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Speaker 3: where I'll look more of a slow like a short

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Speaker 3: term time frame, and then ball striking I'll expand out,

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Speaker 3: So who's hitting the ball well and who's also converting

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Speaker 3: their chances lately? And then driving distance here does make

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Speaker 3: a difference. All of those guys you mentioned that were

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Speaker 3: quote unquote surprise winners are on the longer side of

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Speaker 3: how far they can hit the ball, especially or te

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Speaker 3: Is and co Crack. Those guys are both bombers. Scotty

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Speaker 3: very nearly came back here, but Steven Yeger bomber. We

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Speaker 3: even call him Yeager Bombs. This is a golf course

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Speaker 3: that requires some distance off the tee, So I think

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Speaker 3: we have some guys in here that aren't named Scotty

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Speaker 3: Scheffler that we might be interested in.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, so let's get to the odds.

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Speaker 1: All odds are a courtesy of DraftKings as of Monday morning.

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Speaker 1: Please note that some of these odds may have changed

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Speaker 1: by the time you consume this show. Scotty Scheffler returns

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Speaker 1: to action. As you mentioned Bo, He's the favorite at

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Speaker 1: plus three point thirty, followed by Rory McElroy at plus

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Speaker 1: seven hundred. Then there's a big drop off. Aaron Ray,

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Speaker 1: Michael Kim, JJ Spawn and Davis Thompson are thirty to one.

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Speaker 1: Jason Day, Wyndham Clark, Tony Finow, and Sung Jay Ammer

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Speaker 1: all thirty five to one. Min Woo Lee and Seawou

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Speaker 1: Kim are forty to one. Jacob Bridgeman, Taylor Pendrith and

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Speaker 1: defending champs Steven Yeger are forty five to one, and

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Speaker 1: Maverick McNeely and Keith Mitchell are fifty to one. Who

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Speaker 1: do you like from among the headliners?

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Speaker 3: Ball It's gonna blow your mind that I'm gonna pick

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Speaker 3: this guy, But nobody's playing better golf right now, and

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Speaker 3: nobody needs this tournament to look good more than Rory McElroy,

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Speaker 3: Believe it or not. Even though he's won two of

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Speaker 3: his last four starts, he has never won the Masters.

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Speaker 3: And honestly, that's a pretty close comp course for Augusta National.

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Speaker 3: It's not exact, it's not really even close to exact,

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Speaker 3: but it is as close as it gets. For what

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Speaker 3: we see on the regular PGA Tour, Roda augustin Nashville

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Speaker 3: is a crown jewel. Rory McIlroy's never won there. He's

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Speaker 3: won everything else. He's won literally everything there is to

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Speaker 3: win in the world of golf except for the Masters,

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Speaker 3: and he hasn't showed up at this golf course before.

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Speaker 3: He's never played here. He's played the Houston Open, but

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Speaker 3: it was long before they had gone to Memorial Park.

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Speaker 3: So I think Rory mcclroy has a lot to prove,

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Speaker 3: and it just kind of falls in line with how

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Speaker 3: well this course fits his game. That puts an accent

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Speaker 3: mark on his distance advantage, his advantage off the tee,

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Speaker 3: and his newfound love of hitting good approach shots. This

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Speaker 3: is a guy who has all the firepower in the world.

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Speaker 3: He's playing extremely good golf and he needs to win

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Speaker 3: this tournament. So plus seven hundred, Rory McElroy is my pick,

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Speaker 3: and he's the only favorite that I'm even going to entertain.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, it seems like so long ago now, Bo that

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Speaker 1: Rory came to the back nine at Augusta National with

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Speaker 1: the lead and promptly snaphooked his drive on the tenth

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Speaker 1: tee up against the Butler Cabins.

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Speaker 2: It is time for him to make another run.

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Speaker 1: It feels like we figured he'd be in the hunt

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Speaker 1: every year for most years, and he has had trouble

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Speaker 1: crawling back into it now. He has never played a

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Speaker 1: Houston Open at Memorial Park. But Rory's coming in hot.

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Speaker 1: He's won twice in his last four PGA tour starts

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Speaker 1: first at Pebble Beach, then at the Players Championship two

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Speaker 1: weeks ago. He was off last week, so it comes

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Speaker 1: into Houston confident and well rested, and we know his

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Speaker 1: power off the t is gonna play at Memorial Park.

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Speaker 1: So what about Scotty bo plus three thirty. He's played

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Speaker 1: the Houston Open in four of the five years since

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Speaker 1: the tournament moved back to Memorial Park in twenty twenty.

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Speaker 1: In his last three trips here, second, ninth and second.

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Speaker 3: Oh yeah, there's no bang for the buck here. That's

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Speaker 3: the reason why I'm going to hold out hope, not optimistically,

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Speaker 3: that he'll slip to double digit on somewhere along the way.

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Speaker 3: I don't expect that to happen. He's as good as

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Speaker 3: it gets. He owns this place. He hasn't won here,

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Speaker 3: but he's been damn close every time. I think he

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Speaker 3: very well could win this tournament. He's Scotti Scheffler, but

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Speaker 3: there's no juice to squeeze out of that limit, So

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Speaker 3: I'm not going to do it unless it's gonna actually

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Speaker 3: pay me to do it. So this is not a

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Speaker 3: tournament where I'm overinvested. I'm going to keep it pretty

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Speaker 3: conservative with how much I bet because I do have

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Speaker 3: some nice majors and signature events coming up that I

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Speaker 3: really want to attack. This is not a green light

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Speaker 3: tournament for betting. This is a yellow light and you

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Speaker 3: just gotta be careful. So for me, I'm going to

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Speaker 3: hold out hope that Scotty starts off a little slow,

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Speaker 3: we get some double digit odds on him, and then

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Speaker 3: of course I'll throw in a couple bucks just to

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Speaker 3: feel good when Scotty wins, because it doesn't happen very

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Speaker 3: often where we feel great about Scotty Scheffler winning as

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Speaker 3: a better But Rory is the crown jewel here. He's

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Speaker 3: the one I want to see win this tournament. He's

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Speaker 3: the one I am interested to see how he plays here,

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Speaker 3: and I want to see him get tuned up for Augustus,

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Speaker 3: so we have something to talk about in a couple

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Speaker 3: of weeks.

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Speaker 1: I'm with you, and I think seven to one is

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Speaker 1: a pretty decent price on him. Actually, I'll mention a

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Speaker 1: few of these other guys after we get past that

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Speaker 1: drop off point where plummets from seven to one to

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Speaker 1: thirty to one precipitus. It is if it's this indeed,

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Speaker 1: bo Aaron Rye offers kind of a nice combination of

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Speaker 1: form and course fit. He's finished seventh in each of

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Speaker 1: his last two trips to Houston, also finished nineteenth here

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Speaker 1: in twenty twenty one. Ry has finished top fifteen in

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Speaker 1: three straight events, and you know, windy conditions probably won't

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Speaker 1: bother an Englishman. Ry isn't really a big hitter, but

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Speaker 1: the lack of distance has not been an issue for

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Speaker 1: him so far on this course. Michael Kim had strung

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Speaker 1: together five straight top fifteens before missing the cut at

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Speaker 1: the Players Championship and then you know, just kind of

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Speaker 1: a so so finished at Valspar. His track record isn't

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Speaker 1: great at Memorial Park, though his best finished in three

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Speaker 1: starts here a forty seventh. JJ Spahn has finished second

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Speaker 1: in two of his last three events. He ranks second

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Speaker 1: on tour and strokes gain and approach shots. Also a

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Speaker 1: fairly big hitter, so he might be a pretty good

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Speaker 1: fit for this course. Tony final Bow likes Memorial Park

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Speaker 1: and he's coming in at thirty five to one finale.

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Speaker 1: Won the Houston Open in twenty twenty two, didn't play

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Speaker 1: it in twenty twenty three, but then finished in that

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Speaker 1: multiway time for second last year. We've got Jason Day

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Speaker 1: playing well lately. He was seventh here in twenty twenty

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Speaker 1: sixteenth and twenty twenty two. Minwou Lee hasn't really seriously

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Speaker 1: contended in any event this year, but he's been steady

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Speaker 1: with five top twenties and seven starts and one more name,

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Speaker 1: Maverick McNeely. He's missed the cut in his last two events,

351
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Speaker 1: but before that he was ninth at the Phoenix Open

352
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Speaker 1: in second at the Genesis. Mav has also finished no

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Speaker 1: worse than twenty seventh. Yeah, in three previous trips to

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Speaker 1: Memorial Park. He can hit it a long way. McNeely

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Speaker 1: also ranks ninth on tour in thirty percentage on par threes.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, he's an outstanding putter, one of the best on

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Speaker 3: tour as well, and he's been playing great golf. A

358
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Speaker 3: couple of guys in this range that I hope kind

359
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Speaker 3: of slip out of that fifty to one or shorter

360
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Speaker 3: so that I can bet on them are Minwu Lee,

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Speaker 3: who at forty to one is just too short. I

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Speaker 3: just don't think he has hit. There's not a lot

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Speaker 3: of bang for the bucks there. Forty to one for

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Speaker 3: a guy who really hasn't pushed for any wins this year.

365
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Speaker 3: He's looked good in spots, but if he slips to

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Speaker 3: fifty or fifty five, I'm probably gonna take some chances

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Speaker 3: on Minwu Lee because of his distance advantage as well

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Speaker 3: as his improved approach play. He's been one of the

369
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Speaker 3: worst approach players on tour the last two years and

370
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Speaker 3: it's held him back. He's looked a lot better the

371
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Speaker 3: last few weeks, so Minwu Lee, if he slips a

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Speaker 3: little bit, is going to be a play. Another guy

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Speaker 3: that looked good last week for a while Keith Mitchell

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Speaker 3: Kashmir Keith fifty to one right now, I'm hoping he

375
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Speaker 3: slips his sixty sixty five so I can get some

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Speaker 3: action on Kashmir Keith because he fits well, here it's Bermuda.

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Speaker 3: It requires good off the tea game. He's got that

378
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Speaker 3: in spades. If he can just make a damn putt.

379
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Speaker 3: That's Keith Mitchell's game is. It's give yourself so many

380
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Speaker 3: opportunities that eventually some of those birdies will fall, and

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Speaker 3: it's like Scottie Shuffler light.

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Speaker 1: Let's look at some of the mid range plays. We've

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Speaker 1: got Alex Smalley, Thomas Dietrie and Sahith Thgala at fifty

384
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Speaker 1: five to one. Max Grazerman, Joe high Smith, Taylor Moore

385
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Speaker 1: and Ben Griffin are sixty to one, Kurt Kitty Yama

386
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Speaker 1: is seventy to one, Patrick Rodgers and Jake Knapp are

387
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Speaker 1: seventy five to one, and we have a big group

388
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Speaker 1: at eighty to one with Nick Taylor, Harry Hall, Harris English,

389
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Speaker 1: Seamus Power, Sam Stevens and Rasmus Hoyguard. Do you like

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Speaker 1: any of these.

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Speaker 3: Guys, bow, I really do. I like Max Grazerman. Grazerman

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Speaker 3: rates out extremely well in my model top ten. His

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Speaker 3: weakness is actually ball striking. His approach game has been

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Speaker 3: kind of off, but he makes a ton of birdies

395
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Speaker 3: even then. So with the rough here not as Penal.

396
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Speaker 3: I look to see his ability to hit long approach shots,

397
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Speaker 3: which is better than his general approach stats. He's really

398
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Speaker 3: good at bogey of Winnen's top ten ins field, he's

399
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Speaker 3: top ten and strokes gain on par five and driving distance,

400
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Speaker 3: and he's thirty third in putting. Max Grazerman at sixty

401
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Speaker 3: to one seems like a really good bargain. He's been

402
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Speaker 3: playing great golf this season and looking back to last year,

403
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Speaker 3: obviously the course suits his With a top ten finish,

404
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Speaker 3: he doesn't have a lot of those on the PGA

405
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Speaker 3: Tour early in his career, so I'm paying attention to

406
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Speaker 3: potential horse for the course here. Graysonan's got a lot

407
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Speaker 3: of skill, and I'll address the elephant in the room.

408
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Speaker 3: Kurt kitty Yama is a great course fit here, but

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Speaker 3: he hasn't made a putt all season, and that really

410
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Speaker 3: kills me. As good of a ball striker as he is,

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Speaker 3: as good as he is at playing and grinding through

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Speaker 3: tough conditions, he has not made a single putt this season.

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Speaker 3: It seems like every time I watch him, he misses

414
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Speaker 3: short birdie putts, he misses short par putts, he missed

415
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Speaker 3: his long intermediate and short putts of all regards. I

416
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Speaker 3: haven't seen one fall for him, and until he starts

417
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Speaker 3: seeing balls going in the hole, I can't bet on him.

418
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Speaker 3: And it's really sad. But just start making some putts, Kurt,

419
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Speaker 3: and the wins will come because he's got everything else.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I know, it almost makes me wish that he

421
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Speaker 1: would go to the broomstick bo like anything. Yeah, Kitty

422
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Speaker 1: Yama's putter has just been nice.

423
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Speaker 3: I think he should pay attention to what Shay Batia did.

424
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Speaker 3: He went to the long putter and worked at it

425
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Speaker 3: and worked at it, went from in the hundreds and

426
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Speaker 3: ranked putting to in the top fifty. And that's a

427
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Speaker 3: huge difference for somebody like Batilla, who is also a

428
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Speaker 3: great ball striker, who just couldn't make putts last year

429
00:22:16,800 --> 00:22:19,200
Speaker 3: and now this year, look at Batia, he's looking great

430
00:22:19,240 --> 00:22:22,280
Speaker 3: with the putter and he's pulling things together. I think

431
00:22:22,560 --> 00:22:25,600
Speaker 3: Kidiamus should do that where he should at least examine

432
00:22:26,000 --> 00:22:29,400
Speaker 3: other guys that have improved their putting dramatically in one

433
00:22:29,480 --> 00:22:33,199
Speaker 3: season without really changing anything fundamental. He might change the

434
00:22:33,200 --> 00:22:36,640
Speaker 3: style of putter or just like go to aim point

435
00:22:36,720 --> 00:22:39,919
Speaker 3: or something, do something different because whatever you're doing is

436
00:22:39,960 --> 00:22:40,479
Speaker 3: not working.

437
00:22:41,480 --> 00:22:44,800
Speaker 1: So you mentioned Grazerman. He finished seventh in Houston last

438
00:22:44,840 --> 00:22:46,959
Speaker 1: year and has been in pretty good for him this season.

439
00:22:47,240 --> 00:22:49,399
Speaker 1: I'll mention three other mid range guys who sort of

440
00:22:49,440 --> 00:22:52,920
Speaker 1: interest me. Alex Smalley has finished twenty first or better

441
00:22:52,960 --> 00:22:55,040
Speaker 1: than six of eight starts this year. He missed the

442
00:22:55,080 --> 00:22:57,800
Speaker 1: cut in Houston last year, but he was fourth here

443
00:22:57,800 --> 00:23:02,400
Speaker 1: in twenty twenty two. Fifteenth twenty twenty one. Thomas Dietree

444
00:23:02,720 --> 00:23:06,639
Speaker 1: finished second last year in his Memorial Park debut, and

445
00:23:06,800 --> 00:23:09,040
Speaker 1: his victory in Phoenix last month showed that he is

446
00:23:09,040 --> 00:23:11,800
Speaker 1: the moxie to get into the winner circle. One more

447
00:23:11,800 --> 00:23:14,120
Speaker 1: guy bo We talked about him a couple of weeks ago,

448
00:23:14,200 --> 00:23:16,760
Speaker 1: Jake Knapp. It just seems like this guy's taking a

449
00:23:16,760 --> 00:23:19,800
Speaker 1: step up in class in twenty twenty five. He missed

450
00:23:19,800 --> 00:23:22,200
Speaker 1: the cut at Valspar last week, but he'd finished top

451
00:23:22,240 --> 00:23:25,800
Speaker 1: twenty five in his four previous events. Jake Napp crushes

452
00:23:25,800 --> 00:23:28,480
Speaker 1: it off the tee and he ranks eleventh on tour

453
00:23:28,560 --> 00:23:32,240
Speaker 1: in strokes gained putting boh. It's just like he's not

454
00:23:32,320 --> 00:23:35,119
Speaker 1: a one dimensional bomber anymore, not just a guy you

455
00:23:35,280 --> 00:23:36,040
Speaker 1: only consider it.

456
00:23:36,440 --> 00:23:37,600
Speaker 2: Mexico and Puerto Rico.

457
00:23:38,520 --> 00:23:41,320
Speaker 3: Yeah, it's it, sure, sure seems like that the way

458
00:23:41,359 --> 00:23:45,639
Speaker 3: he's playing. Some concern is his ability off the tee

459
00:23:46,119 --> 00:23:48,600
Speaker 3: has been pretty bad, and he's not good at scrambling

460
00:23:48,720 --> 00:23:51,959
Speaker 3: or of avoiding bogies. That's that's one thing that stands

461
00:23:51,960 --> 00:23:54,560
Speaker 3: out for me. He slipped a sixty third in my model.

462
00:23:54,800 --> 00:23:58,119
Speaker 3: Everything you said is true. His driving distance is thirtieth,

463
00:23:58,160 --> 00:24:00,600
Speaker 3: which as as long as he is, you can tell

464
00:24:00,640 --> 00:24:03,119
Speaker 3: he's been battling things off the tee. He's hitting a

465
00:24:03,119 --> 00:24:05,760
Speaker 3: lot of stingers, he's hitting a lot of less than

466
00:24:05,840 --> 00:24:09,240
Speaker 3: driver to find the fairway because he just can't find

467
00:24:09,240 --> 00:24:12,199
Speaker 3: it with a map when he's pulling driver. He's going

468
00:24:12,280 --> 00:24:14,399
Speaker 3: to need to pull driver here, and he's going to

469
00:24:14,440 --> 00:24:18,000
Speaker 3: need to pull driver well to do well here. For

470
00:24:18,119 --> 00:24:21,320
Speaker 3: those putting stats to pay off, his approach game has

471
00:24:21,400 --> 00:24:24,879
Speaker 3: been okay, it's just right now. He needs to be

472
00:24:24,920 --> 00:24:27,680
Speaker 3: able to find fairways so that he can make birdies

473
00:24:28,040 --> 00:24:30,760
Speaker 3: and of course avoid the bogies because that's what's killed

474
00:24:30,800 --> 00:24:34,080
Speaker 3: him last week and when he's played poorly this year,

475
00:24:34,119 --> 00:24:36,600
Speaker 3: it's just he just shoots himself in the foot so

476
00:24:36,840 --> 00:24:41,360
Speaker 3: often with burying himself off the tee in wayward places,

477
00:24:41,400 --> 00:24:43,720
Speaker 3: and then he's so aggressive that he just doesn't know

478
00:24:43,800 --> 00:24:47,160
Speaker 3: to take his lumps, like what Victor Hovelin did on eighteen.

479
00:24:47,240 --> 00:24:49,119
Speaker 3: He didn't even try to go for the pin. He

480
00:24:49,200 --> 00:24:53,000
Speaker 3: knew that a bogie won, and so he fought for bogie.

481
00:24:53,240 --> 00:24:55,240
Speaker 3: Jake Knapp would have been going after that pin, like

482
00:24:55,280 --> 00:24:58,000
Speaker 3: I need to win this tournament. It's like, no, you don't.

483
00:24:58,680 --> 00:25:00,320
Speaker 3: You need to put the ball on the hole. Five

484
00:25:00,359 --> 00:25:01,119
Speaker 3: shots are less.

485
00:25:02,400 --> 00:25:07,200
Speaker 1: Yeah, Jake might appreciate the roomy or fairways at Memorial Park.

486
00:25:07,680 --> 00:25:09,920
Speaker 1: What about long shots? Bo give us a few names

487
00:25:09,920 --> 00:25:10,920
Speaker 1: from the outer reaches.

488
00:25:11,320 --> 00:25:13,119
Speaker 3: Well, I mean, I can't go to the show without

489
00:25:13,240 --> 00:25:18,280
Speaker 3: going with Carl Phillips, very, very long hitter. He's struggled

490
00:25:18,320 --> 00:25:22,679
Speaker 3: last week with approach. But this is something that is

491
00:25:22,760 --> 00:25:25,920
Speaker 3: different with the Valspar. The Valspar is a very demanding

492
00:25:25,960 --> 00:25:28,520
Speaker 3: second shot golf course, a very demanding off the t

493
00:25:28,720 --> 00:25:32,159
Speaker 3: golf course. The challenge here is mainly being in the

494
00:25:32,200 --> 00:25:35,639
Speaker 3: right place if you miss, and I think that the

495
00:25:36,000 --> 00:25:39,159
Speaker 3: penalty for missing was so much more last week than

496
00:25:39,200 --> 00:25:40,800
Speaker 3: it is going to be this week. I think this

497
00:25:40,880 --> 00:25:43,840
Speaker 3: week the defense is mainly weather and the length of

498
00:25:43,880 --> 00:25:46,760
Speaker 3: the golf course. If it softens up, Carl Phillips is

499
00:25:47,080 --> 00:25:49,960
Speaker 3: the kind of guy who can score in tough conditions,

500
00:25:50,320 --> 00:25:52,200
Speaker 3: and he's one hundred and twenty to one. This guy

501
00:25:52,320 --> 00:25:55,439
Speaker 3: is a special, special player, so I'm gonna bet him

502
00:25:55,440 --> 00:25:58,800
Speaker 3: every time. And Danny Walker has impressed me. He's at

503
00:25:58,800 --> 00:26:01,280
Speaker 3: two hundred to one. Danny Walker has been playing great

504
00:26:01,280 --> 00:26:05,640
Speaker 3: golf since he snuck in with a late withdrawal on

505
00:26:05,760 --> 00:26:07,840
Speaker 3: Thursday morning a couple of weeks ago. And he what

506
00:26:07,920 --> 00:26:09,520
Speaker 3: does he do? He goes in it almost wins the

507
00:26:09,600 --> 00:26:12,840
Speaker 3: damn thing. Danny Walker impressed me, and so I'm going

508
00:26:12,920 --> 00:26:15,280
Speaker 3: to play him this week at two hundred and one.

509
00:26:15,359 --> 00:26:18,240
Speaker 3: Let's throw in one more name. It's only one hundred

510
00:26:18,240 --> 00:26:21,320
Speaker 3: and fifty to one, but Kevin Roy rates out really

511
00:26:21,320 --> 00:26:25,800
Speaker 3: well for me. Another long hitter that has shown spots

512
00:26:25,840 --> 00:26:27,920
Speaker 3: where he's good at grinding it out, but he's also

513
00:26:28,000 --> 00:26:31,320
Speaker 3: really good at making birdies and bunches if he's in position.

514
00:26:32,040 --> 00:26:35,560
Speaker 3: So all long shots, Phillips, Roy and Walker, those are

515
00:26:35,560 --> 00:26:37,600
Speaker 3: the three guys that I have circled on my betting

516
00:26:37,640 --> 00:26:38,359
Speaker 3: card so far.

517
00:26:38,840 --> 00:26:41,480
Speaker 1: You mentioned show favorite Carl Phillips at one hundred and

518
00:26:41,520 --> 00:26:43,240
Speaker 1: twenty to one. Bow there were a couple other names

519
00:26:43,280 --> 00:26:44,959
Speaker 1: at one hundred and twenty to one, which sort of

520
00:26:45,000 --> 00:26:48,720
Speaker 1: interested me. Davis Riley, who was a train wreck early

521
00:26:48,760 --> 00:26:51,920
Speaker 1: in the season, like withdrew from the Century in early January,

522
00:26:52,000 --> 00:26:55,160
Speaker 1: then missed four straight cots. But suddenly Riley is hot.

523
00:26:55,480 --> 00:26:58,640
Speaker 1: He was in the Hunted valspar over the weekend, finished seventh.

524
00:26:59,040 --> 00:27:01,120
Speaker 1: He was sixth at the Puerto Rico opened a few

525
00:27:01,119 --> 00:27:04,840
Speaker 1: weeks ago, finished seventeenth in Houston last year, and he's

526
00:27:04,880 --> 00:27:07,800
Speaker 1: been top thirty in each of his last three trips. Here,

527
00:27:08,400 --> 00:27:11,439
Speaker 1: Ricky Castillo, you put me onto this guy ball. He

528
00:27:11,520 --> 00:27:13,240
Speaker 1: was in the hunt at the vals Bar on Sunday,

529
00:27:13,240 --> 00:27:14,840
Speaker 1: eventually slid back into twelve.

530
00:27:15,160 --> 00:27:16,960
Speaker 2: But this kid has some game, he does.

531
00:27:17,160 --> 00:27:19,439
Speaker 1: And one more guy one hundred and twenty to one

532
00:27:19,480 --> 00:27:22,520
Speaker 1: who would interest me, Joel Damon just a horse for

533
00:27:22,560 --> 00:27:25,280
Speaker 1: the course. Two top tens in Houston in the last

534
00:27:25,280 --> 00:27:28,280
Speaker 1: four years and two top tens on tour this year.

535
00:27:28,720 --> 00:27:31,800
Speaker 3: Yeah. Riley's approach game has been the catalyst for his improvement.

536
00:27:31,880 --> 00:27:35,280
Speaker 3: He found something in the offseason that took him from

537
00:27:35,760 --> 00:27:38,440
Speaker 3: very bad approach game to middle of the pack, which

538
00:27:38,480 --> 00:27:41,320
Speaker 3: for him is great because he's a pretty long hitter

539
00:27:41,560 --> 00:27:44,680
Speaker 3: and an amazing putter. And then Castillo is the opposite,

540
00:27:44,720 --> 00:27:46,919
Speaker 3: where he's a great approach player and a really good

541
00:27:46,960 --> 00:27:48,919
Speaker 3: off the team player, but he's dead lasted in this

542
00:27:48,960 --> 00:27:51,520
Speaker 3: field and putting. So if we can get something out

543
00:27:51,520 --> 00:27:54,000
Speaker 3: of Ricky Castillo on these big, fast screens that don't

544
00:27:54,000 --> 00:27:56,200
Speaker 3: have a lot of nuance, we might have something there.

545
00:27:57,160 --> 00:27:58,840
Speaker 1: Who's on your betting card as of now?

546
00:27:59,119 --> 00:28:02,160
Speaker 3: I got Rory LUs seven hundred, I got Kasmir, Keith

547
00:28:02,200 --> 00:28:05,639
Speaker 3: Mitchell at fifty to one, Max Grazerman at sixty, and

548
00:28:05,680 --> 00:28:08,240
Speaker 3: then I'm throwing a little bit each on Carl Phillips,

549
00:28:08,720 --> 00:28:10,320
Speaker 3: Kevin Roy, and Danny Walker.

550
00:28:11,000 --> 00:28:13,520
Speaker 1: Yeah, I've got Rory also at seven to one. I've

551
00:28:13,520 --> 00:28:16,639
Speaker 1: got Aaron Rye at thirty to one, Tony Finow at

552
00:28:16,640 --> 00:28:19,600
Speaker 1: thirty five to one, Maverick McNeely at fifty to one,

553
00:28:19,720 --> 00:28:22,200
Speaker 1: Jake Knapp at seventy five to one, and then Joel

554
00:28:22,280 --> 00:28:25,240
Speaker 1: Damon and Carl Villips at one hundred and twenty to one.

555
00:28:25,880 --> 00:28:27,960
Speaker 1: I'm over betting at a little bow. I think I

556
00:28:28,000 --> 00:28:31,240
Speaker 1: won a little too much on March Madness. That's this weekend.

557
00:28:31,359 --> 00:28:34,480
Speaker 1: So with my thicker bank roll, I'm I'm blowing.

558
00:28:34,560 --> 00:28:35,480
Speaker 2: I can't believe I.

559
00:28:35,520 --> 00:28:38,800
Speaker 3: Only missed four picks in the whole first round, and

560
00:28:38,840 --> 00:28:40,640
Speaker 3: then in the second round I lost two of my

561
00:28:40,800 --> 00:28:45,080
Speaker 3: final four teams. So that's what I get for not

562
00:28:45,160 --> 00:28:46,360
Speaker 3: watching any hoops this year.

563
00:28:48,480 --> 00:28:51,160
Speaker 1: Now for the one and done competition, Boa, it's Upstraka.

564
00:28:51,280 --> 00:28:53,840
Speaker 1: Last week he finished tied for twenty eighth, good for

565
00:28:53,920 --> 00:28:57,719
Speaker 1: fifty five thousand, eight hundred and forty three dollars. Mildly disappointing,

566
00:28:57,720 --> 00:29:00,800
Speaker 1: but far less disappointing than my solction of two time

567
00:29:00,880 --> 00:29:05,040
Speaker 1: Valspar champion Sam Burns, who missed the cut, and somehow

568
00:29:05,080 --> 00:29:07,560
Speaker 1: I am still holding onto a slim lead despite the

569
00:29:07,600 --> 00:29:11,000
Speaker 1: fact that I've managed to pick five cut missers this season,

570
00:29:11,480 --> 00:29:14,280
Speaker 1: while Bo's guys have not missed a cut all year. Boe,

571
00:29:14,320 --> 00:29:16,600
Speaker 1: you're betting lead off this week? Who are you taking?

572
00:29:18,480 --> 00:29:20,920
Speaker 3: So it's tricky because I want to go kind of

573
00:29:20,920 --> 00:29:23,280
Speaker 3: conservative this week, but I also want to kind of

574
00:29:23,320 --> 00:29:26,240
Speaker 3: catch up here because it's embarrassing that I'm not beating

575
00:29:26,280 --> 00:29:30,960
Speaker 3: you soundly without missing a single cut this season. I'm

576
00:29:30,960 --> 00:29:32,200
Speaker 3: going to eat you in the middle. I'm going to

577
00:29:32,280 --> 00:29:33,200
Speaker 3: go with Max Grazerman.

578
00:29:33,960 --> 00:29:36,800
Speaker 1: Max Grazerman, it is I am going to take Aaron

579
00:29:36,960 --> 00:29:40,640
Speaker 1: Rye after the miscut. I need a steady hand and

580
00:29:40,680 --> 00:29:42,800
Speaker 1: I think Aaron Ry is going to give me that.

581
00:29:42,800 --> 00:29:45,400
Speaker 1: That's all for this week's Betting Pros PGA podcast will

582
00:29:45,440 --> 00:29:48,840
Speaker 1: be back next week to preview the final event before

583
00:29:48,880 --> 00:29:54,080
Speaker 1: the Masters, the Valero Texas Open. Until then, so long everyone.

584
00:29:53,960 --> 00:29:56,560
Speaker 4: Thanks for listening to the Betting Pros podcast. If you

585
00:29:56,640 --> 00:29:59,000
Speaker 4: love the show, the best freeway to support us is

586
00:29:59,000 --> 00:30:02,400
Speaker 4: by leaving a positive review on Apple Podcasts or Spotify.

587
00:30:02,720 --> 00:30:05,320
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588
00:30:05,440 --> 00:30:09,080
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589
00:30:09,120 --> 00:30:11,640
Speaker 4: channel at YouTube dot com slash Betting Pros