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Speaker 1: This is Straight Fire with Jason McIntyre. What is up,

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Speaker 1: straight Fire Fan, It's me Jason McIntyre, Straight Fire for Wednesday,

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Speaker 1: September seven. I've got to say the fantasy football draft

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Speaker 1: situation has gotten out of control, folks. I know you

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Speaker 1: don't care about other people's fantasy teams with damn it.

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Speaker 1: This is my podcast and I'm gonna talk about my teams. No,

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Speaker 1: I'm not actually going to, but the draft process. If

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Speaker 1: you've got as many teams and leagues as I do,

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Speaker 1: my son is joining when you on a couple of them,

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Speaker 1: and then you're doing Survivor and you're doing pick Um

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Speaker 1: leagues and you're in Vegas draft contests and oh, by

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Speaker 1: the way, you're gambling on games. Like it's gotten a

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Speaker 1: little out of control and we're now, you know, team

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Speaker 1: on us what thirty six hours to rams bills Like

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Speaker 1: you gotta tighten your ship. You gotta get your act together.

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Speaker 1: And that's what I spent a lot of Tuesday doing.

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Speaker 1: And not only that, but we have a special, super

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Speaker 1: special guest today. You guys know how I'd like to

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Speaker 1: talk about bringing on new people and new voices to

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Speaker 1: the podcast, um specifically the gambling space, because listen, it's

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Speaker 1: a space that's emerging. It's a growth sector, as they

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Speaker 1: like to say, in the Internet streets. And sometimes you'll

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Speaker 1: stumble upon people who have really really good stuff. You guys,

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Speaker 1: remember back in the day on the Saturday radio show,

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Speaker 1: I found this guy t A on Twitter and I

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Speaker 1: would bring him on weekly segment. Guy starts blowing up.

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Speaker 1: Now he's got his own site. He's like, I mean,

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Speaker 1: he's big time, and we had him on as a

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Speaker 1: guest recently. Good information. Well, our guest today is potentially

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Speaker 1: in the same vein. His name is Connor Allen. He's

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Speaker 1: on Twitter at Connor Allen nfl uh. He does a

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Speaker 1: lot of prop bets. If you are a Rams fan,

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Speaker 1: you're gonna love what he says about Allen Robinson. I

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Speaker 1: hope you gotta be in your fantasy draft. I think

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Speaker 1: you guys are really gonna like this good stuff from

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Speaker 1: Connor Allen, So stick around for at Obviously, one just small,

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Speaker 1: uh news item that I saw before we get to Connor,

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Speaker 1: and it wasn't like a big big day in in

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Speaker 1: sports news. Obviously, it was a big day on other fronts.

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Speaker 1: I had too fantasy drafts. A buddy of mine who's

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Speaker 1: a regular listener the podcast. Shout out to my main man, Colbert.

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Speaker 1: His kid is a big time athlete. Uh, you know

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Speaker 1: among fourth graders. He's really good and uh you know

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Speaker 1: we celebrated him at top golf. I played so badly.

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Speaker 1: I don't even want to discuss it. Um. But like

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Speaker 1: I had that, I had two drafts. I was basically,

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Speaker 1: you know, me and my wife. The kids are at

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Speaker 1: the age whe they're playing sports and you're like a

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Speaker 1: glorified chauffeur taking him to practices because fall sports are

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Speaker 1: starting up, and it's just the heat out here in

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Speaker 1: l A is oppressive. It's just been a rough week.

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Speaker 1: I know, these are first world problems. Jason, shut up,

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Speaker 1: get get to the info, because it's like who who cares?

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Speaker 1: Suck it up? Deal with it? Um. Uh. The the

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Speaker 1: only thing that I really saw that was kind of

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Speaker 1: interesting on an NFL front. So t A was a

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Speaker 1: guest remember on the pot I think it was last week,

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Speaker 1: might have been two weeks ago, and he liked Kansas

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Speaker 1: City at three favored by three against Arizona. Kansas City

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Speaker 1: going on the road in season opener. Andy Reid obviously

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Speaker 1: just a legend with time to prepare, so the number

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Speaker 1: creeps up to four and a half. Um, I think

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Speaker 1: this was Thursday or Friday. Okay, well Tuesday. While I'm

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Speaker 1: on the herd, I see the number jump up because yes,

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Speaker 1: I had the odd screen open four and a half

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Speaker 1: right to six. So in the span of I don't

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Speaker 1: know a week, the Kansas City Chiefs went from minus

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Speaker 1: three to minus six. What like, seriously, what's going on?

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Speaker 1: What am I missing here? Why is this number going

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Speaker 1: through the roof? Now? I saw briefly I think one

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Speaker 1: place had six and a half and then it went

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Speaker 1: back down. I don't know, guys, something's going on now.

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Speaker 1: Maybe somebody has had inside information that I'm not privy

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Speaker 1: too at this point. But to see a line move

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Speaker 1: like that a full field goal, somebody must know something.

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Speaker 1: I don't know. You gotta keep an eye on a

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Speaker 1: COVID outbreak or something. Um, but something's up now. A

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Speaker 1: group did release one of these, you know, professional syndicates

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Speaker 1: released a pick at Kansas City minus four and a half,

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Speaker 1: and that is a large reason I guess it jumped up.

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Speaker 1: But that's gotta be a lot of money to move

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Speaker 1: it from four and a half to six. I know

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Speaker 1: five is a dead number, but still for a key number.

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Speaker 1: Obviously three that it passed through, and now six, it's

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Speaker 1: like what maybe there will be buyback on the on

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Speaker 1: the Cardinals. But I mean, listen, you don't need a

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Speaker 1: rocket scientist to know DeAndre Hopkins suspended. Christian Kirk, your

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Speaker 1: other number top receiver. He is now in Jacksonville. Zach Ertz,

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Speaker 1: their tight end is battling an injury. I don't know

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Speaker 1: if you guys saw this. Zach Hurtz may not play

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Speaker 1: like it's getting a little crazy out there. UM no

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Speaker 1: other significant line moves, although I did see that the

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Speaker 1: um Colts were eight. It's now down to seven. Somebody

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Speaker 1: must like something with Houston. More money coming in on Jacksonville.

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Speaker 1: Remember that's one of the games that I bet when

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Speaker 1: I was at Vegas last week. Jacksonville on the road

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Speaker 1: in Washington was three and a half. It's down to

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Speaker 1: two and a half. Um. You know, I don't want

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Speaker 1: to go overboard and make this heavy, heavy gambling every day,

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Speaker 1: but I know a lot of people are involved. We

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Speaker 1: want to have another successful season. So UM, I'm just

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Speaker 1: bringing you the news as I get it. UM. I

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Speaker 1: will say as the last point before we get to

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Speaker 1: Connor Allen more ads on the podcast, some gambling ones

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Speaker 1: take advantage of those folks. Okay, they're giving away free money.

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Speaker 1: I hope you can cash went some legitimately free money.

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Speaker 1: And as you know, the more listeners we have in

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Speaker 1: the podcast, the better the sponsors are. YadA, YadA, YadA,

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Speaker 1: we continue to get good guests. I'm I'm living the dream, baby,

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Speaker 1: living the dream. All right, let's get to our guest

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Speaker 1: today here on Straight Fire. His name is Connor Allen,

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Speaker 1: talking about the NFL in week one. Fox Sports Radio

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Speaker 1: has the best sports talk lineup in the nation. Catch

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Speaker 1: all of our shows at Fox Sports Radio dot com

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Speaker 1: and within the I Heart Radio app search f s

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Speaker 1: R to listen live. Jason likes to think he knows

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Speaker 1: everything when it comes to sports. I know what sports

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Speaker 1: dance want, but for everything he doesn't, he knows a

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Speaker 1: guy who does. Let's just say I know a guy

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Speaker 1: who knows a guy who knows another guy. Okay, let's

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Speaker 1: welcome into Straight Fire a new guest. We've never had

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Speaker 1: him on before. And you guys know, dating back to

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Speaker 1: my Saturday radio show, I would try to bring on

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Speaker 1: gamblers who I saw on social media. We're kind of

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Speaker 1: doing something different, kind of finding interesting angles. And I

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Speaker 1: know nothing about this guy. He could just go off

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Speaker 1: and say in a string of expletives. I don't know

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Speaker 1: really anything about Connor Allen, but I I followed him

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Speaker 1: when I saw somebody pop one of his things a

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Speaker 1: couple of months back, and I was like, huh, I

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Speaker 1: think that's a prop bet that I like. And then

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Speaker 1: I started following him and his feed was great. So

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Speaker 1: then this week I said, asked him to come on

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Speaker 1: the podcast. Connor Allen. He is a sports betting manager

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Speaker 1: for for Football. He is a longtime gambler. I don't

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Speaker 1: know much about you, Connor, tell me tell the audience

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Speaker 1: about yourself. Yeah, Jason, thank you so much for having

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Speaker 1: me on. I really appreciate it. But yeah, a little

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Speaker 1: bit of background about me. I started gambling, you know,

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Speaker 1: like most people, when I was a little bit younger

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Speaker 1: than I should have probably you know, ages, creating some

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Speaker 1: some fake Bravada accounts, you know, maybe ten years ago

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Speaker 1: at this point, just to get some skin in the game.

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Speaker 1: And then now it's progressed with legalized gambling everywhere too. Um,

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Speaker 1: you know, betting player props spending, sides, totals, everything. Um.

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Speaker 1: But most of my workers in the player props streets

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Speaker 1: uh season long, week to week player props um. But

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Speaker 1: you know obviously about on most of the games as well.

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Speaker 1: I do a weekly podcast over at four four dot com.

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Speaker 1: I do weekly articles and we released player prop bets

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Speaker 1: as well as sides and totals through our subscriber discord.

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Speaker 1: So what turned you onto gambling? Are you like a

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Speaker 1: math guy? Were you in METI? Uh? What? What? Like?

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Speaker 1: What your college? Would you go to school? College, concentration,

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Speaker 1: all that fun stuff. So I actually went to Illinois

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Speaker 1: wesley And College, a small school in Illinois. UM, and

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Speaker 1: actually not for media at all. I was business management major.

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Speaker 1: I originally actually submitted an article to Warren Sharp season

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Speaker 1: preview and I won the guest writing contest. So I

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Speaker 1: was in one of his books. I think it's twenty

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Speaker 1: seventeen or eighteen. Right as I was graduating college. Evan

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Speaker 1: Silva roto World saw it and was like, hey, do

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Speaker 1: you guys, do you want to work for NBC at

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Speaker 1: the time, So Silva, yeah, So Silva hired me. UM.

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Speaker 1: I had a little stint there, wrote, wrote a little bit,

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Speaker 1: and then but at the time, NBC wasn't doing much

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Speaker 1: gambling work, so I kept skewing my daily articles towards gambling,

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Speaker 1: and they just like, you know, shrug shoulders, didn't really care. Um,

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Speaker 1: So I kind of wanted to find my own spin

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Speaker 1: on it. So I started writing for other websites who

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Speaker 1: did really like think that that was more of a future.

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Speaker 1: And so that's kind of how I got my start

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Speaker 1: in the gambling because that was that's really been my concentration.

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Speaker 1: Is something I really enjoyed. Yeah, Evan Silva, good guy.

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Speaker 1: I've known him, he's probably seven eight years. Saw him

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Speaker 1: at the Combine. Uh, super nice guy. And listen, it

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Speaker 1: always takes someone to you know, the kindness of others

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Speaker 1: to kind of propel you. And I'm having Cilvil war

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Speaker 1: In Sharp. Those are good names to have. You know

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Speaker 1: you're backing obviously, But I gotta ask why player props

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Speaker 1: A lot of people think they could go beat the

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Speaker 1: NFL market. Oh man, I love Jacksonville this week. I

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Speaker 1: love Jacksonville. Um, and you know what, Washington might come

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Speaker 1: out and put it on them. I you know, it's

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Speaker 1: just it's weird. What do you why do you focus

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Speaker 1: on player props versus games. So the market is getting

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Speaker 1: a little bit harder, but it is still I think

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Speaker 1: one of the most beautiful markets in the NFL. The

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Speaker 1: NFL closing lines are some of the most efficient lines

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Speaker 1: in all sports betting. Whereas player props, they're releasing thousands

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Speaker 1: of player props. It's not getting better around by sharps.

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Speaker 1: It's not you know, being quite as used as like

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Speaker 1: the sides market. Whereas player props, we have projections. We

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Speaker 1: have models of every single player in websites that I'm

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Speaker 1: connected with, so you know, for for dot Com, there

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Speaker 1: are other great people who make awesome projections as well. Um,

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Speaker 1: and I think that they legitimately do as good or

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Speaker 1: better job than sports books at setting lines and projections.

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Speaker 1: And so if you look at it from that perspective, um,

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Speaker 1: you know, I think that we have an edge there.

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Speaker 1: And beyond that too, there are so many factors that

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Speaker 1: sports books just like can't pay attention to, can't take

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Speaker 1: into account if a backup gets injured, you know, or

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Speaker 1: a starter gets injured, like we know who the backup

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Speaker 1: is and the third string is and how that impacts matchups,

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Speaker 1: Whereas you know, sports books are just overwhelmed with how

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Speaker 1: much action they're taking. There's no way they can pay

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Speaker 1: attention to like every granular aspect of all of that. Yeah,

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Speaker 1: and they want to get up the lines as quick

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Speaker 1: as possible because everybody wants to get down as soon

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Speaker 1: as the number comes out. And if you're lagging by

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Speaker 1: hours or even a day, you're gonna miss out. So

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Speaker 1: I'm sure you can hit the props. Now, I'm assuming

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Speaker 1: you can't get down as much on player props as

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Speaker 1: you could on say a game. Um, how do you

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Speaker 1: do that? Do you have multiple books? You work with

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Speaker 1: a local guy? Yeah, so I try and spread out

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Speaker 1: my action as much as possible. Um. You know, like,

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Speaker 1: like you said, you can't get as much down as

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Speaker 1: you know you can run the sides. But you know,

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Speaker 1: the reality is is that most recreational betters are not

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Speaker 1: trying to bet you know, five ten on on a

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Speaker 1: game or a player prop as is. But you know,

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Speaker 1: if you're able to use multiple books, you're able to

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Speaker 1: use a couple of locals, you can easily get a

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Speaker 1: couple of thousand down on on prop here and there.

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Speaker 1: So you know you add that up and stack it up.

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Speaker 1: Um it you know it ends up pretty quick, you know.

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Speaker 1: So it's not you're not gonna be able to make

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Speaker 1: a living off of just this unless you're really really

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Speaker 1: out there and you know, in Vegas or you know,

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Speaker 1: close to sports books where you can bet a kiosks

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Speaker 1: and you're able to you know, kind of put more

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Speaker 1: action down. But I think that, like I spread on

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Speaker 1: my action pretty well. Live in Chicago, so we do

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Speaker 1: have access to legal books, but the books are you know,

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Speaker 1: all three hours away at least the physical locations. So

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Speaker 1: it's interesting you said you're not gonna be able to

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Speaker 1: make a living. Let's be real, connor, how many of

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Speaker 1: these people out there really just make a living off

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Speaker 1: sports gambling? Yeah, there's not a lot, like I mean,

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Speaker 1: like smooth smaller than even that people think, like we're

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Speaker 1: talking probably under a hundred people, right, Yeah, yeah, that's

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Speaker 1: that's about right. That seems about because a lot of

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Speaker 1: these guys who talk gambling are paid by a Fox, ESPN, NBC, right,

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Speaker 1: CBS or you know you've got a podcast where you

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Speaker 1: make money off advertising. Right. The idea that you can

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Speaker 1: just make you have like a life and a wife

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Speaker 1: and a family and kids, that's really not realistic. No,

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Speaker 1: not at all, And I think that I like, I

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Speaker 1: use it as a side income. You know, It's like

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Speaker 1: it's I feel like I make money on this, but

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Speaker 1: obviously my primary income is you know, media is you know, uh, writing,

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Speaker 1: you know, stuff like that. So I think that you're

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Speaker 1: totally at it. On the other it's really hard to

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Speaker 1: make a living on just sports betting itself. Yeah, Now

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Speaker 1: I am curious. I know that the gambling sewer out there,

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Speaker 1: as I've been calling it for a few years, they

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Speaker 1: just they they they're anonymous guys and they want to

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Speaker 1: come after people and say like, oh, this guy's terrible

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Speaker 1: at gambling. And meanwhile, these guys are all a lot

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Speaker 1: of anonymous. They don't have, you know, the balls to

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Speaker 1: put their name behind their picks or anything. I'm just curious,

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Speaker 1: are people coming after you yet for player props or

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Speaker 1: are we do you think we're not there? It's still

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Speaker 1: mostly a sides and totals deal. No, they still exist

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Speaker 1: for player props. Yeah, the gambling twitter is uh is

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Speaker 1: not a great place. You know, it gets pretty dark

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Speaker 1: there sometimes. But you know, I I we I stand

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Speaker 1: by what I do. I release all of my props.

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Speaker 1: They're playable as is you know, I try not to

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Speaker 1: release a prop that's crazy off market that will get

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Speaker 1: blasted within ten seconds. You know, I got try and

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Speaker 1: make it so that everyone can get down on it,

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Speaker 1: everyone can win money. And at the end of the day,

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Speaker 1: maybe we're not going to be making as much as

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Speaker 1: you know, Billy Walters or you know, the winning sides

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Speaker 1: or totals, but as long as everyone gets a little

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Speaker 1: bit you know, money there, I think that everyone will

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Speaker 1: be happy. So so I'm I'm just curious when you say,

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Speaker 1: you know, put out. So let's given uh an example

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Speaker 1: for week one? Right, Um, so last week I was

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Speaker 1: in Vegas and I got down on a bunch of games,

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Speaker 1: but I got down on the Giants Titans, for instance,

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Speaker 1: Giants six and a half. Right, So this was early

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Speaker 1: last week. Here we are now Tuesday. Uh, people are

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Speaker 1: asking for gambling content and I say, oh, I got

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Speaker 1: I'm on the Giants, And then you look and it's

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Speaker 1: five and a half and I get, like six being

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Speaker 1: a key number, like that kind of matters, And I feel,

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Speaker 1: you know, not great saying that, But I don't know, Connor,

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Speaker 1: does the same happen to you with props? Were like,

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Speaker 1: if you bet something last week for Week one. I

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Speaker 1: think one of the things we discussed maybe briefly on

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Speaker 1: Twitter was like the Jets team total of eighteen and

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Speaker 1: a half or something, and now is that moving as

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Speaker 1: we get closer and like how do you handle that

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Speaker 1: when they come after you and they're like, oh, I

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Speaker 1: couldn't get that number. Yes, I mean, we have a

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Speaker 1: pretty strict process of we released things in our discord

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Speaker 1: and we put a notification so that everyone gets pushing notification.

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Speaker 1: We say, so we'll I'll give an example, like a

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Speaker 1: direct example here. So we played Allen Robinson over fifty

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Speaker 1: seven and a a half receiving yards. This was earlier this week.

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Speaker 1: We put a push notification for the Thursday night game. Um,

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Speaker 1: you know, we think that he's in a great position

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Speaker 1: and succeed here. We think the game state is great.

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Speaker 1: Tradevious whites out. Um. You know, obviously there are some

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Speaker 1: concerns about him last year, but you know, most people

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Speaker 1: who studied the film, myself included, thought that he was

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Speaker 1: still able to separate. He just kind of gave up.

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Speaker 1: And that's from insiders in the organization. That's what I

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Speaker 1: heard from the Bears. So now I think that you know,

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Speaker 1: in this situation in Los Angeles with McVeigh really, you know,

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Speaker 1: just talking about him NonStop to reporters. You know, I

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Speaker 1: think he's in a great situation to succeed here. So

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Speaker 1: I took that over. Now that's sitting around like sixty

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Speaker 1: one and a half. I told our subscriber I would

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Speaker 1: played up to sixty and I think that's about where

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Speaker 1: it closes. Our projections haven't met like sixty five, so

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Speaker 1: you know, like I try and balance that, and if

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Speaker 1: they miss it, they miss it. But again, we give

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Speaker 1: everyone the opportunity to get a push notification, everyone to

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Speaker 1: be alerted. If they miss it, then you know, we

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Speaker 1: should have plenty of other players for them to get

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Speaker 1: on as well. Yeah, I'm looking at the bills secondary

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Speaker 1: woolf so elam, I'm assuming he's gonna be starting opposite

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Speaker 1: someone named Dane Jackson. Yeah, I mean I guess. I

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Speaker 1: guess at this point that could eat that guy up. Now,

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Speaker 1: now here's the thing with with with you know, uh

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Speaker 1: sides and totals. You know key numbers, you know, three

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Speaker 1: three and a half, uh six seven obviously, but with

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Speaker 1: totals like you gave out fifty seven and a half

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Speaker 1: for Robinson's receiving yards. Why do you love it up

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Speaker 1: to sixty but not necessarily sixty one and a half?

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Speaker 1: So I guess, I mean that's where it comes down to,

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Speaker 1: like the marginal, you know, I guess that's it's a

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Speaker 1: little bit more um subjective or subjective on that. You know,

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Speaker 1: we try and do the five to ten percent rule

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Speaker 1: on like you know, we would we would play a

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Speaker 1: player prop over of you know, up to Generally our edges,

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Speaker 1: we consider something that's good as like fIF um, so

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Speaker 1: you know, playing it up to five to ten percent

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Speaker 1: is generally fine. But you know, like I I think

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Speaker 1: that at this point they're stilling off of the edge

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Speaker 1: early in the season, there's no folatility with a receiving

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Speaker 1: prop um. But generally what we gave out was up

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Speaker 1: to sixty just because that's about where I anticipated the

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Speaker 1: market closing. So not super objective, um, and then just

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Speaker 1: in general, I mean, honestly, with our stuff early in

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Speaker 1: the season, we don't have a ton of data to

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Speaker 1: go off of, like in the first one weeks one,

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Speaker 1: weeks two, weeks three, whereas you know, like by weeks four,

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Speaker 1: you know we'll be using expected points at it. You know,

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Speaker 1: We'll be using a lot of other metrics here, you know,

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Speaker 1: like pressure rate, things that are a little bit more

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Speaker 1: start to stabilize after the first couple of weeks where

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Speaker 1: we get a bigger sample size about opponents and about um,

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Speaker 1: you know, kind of current roles, usage, things of that sort.

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Speaker 1: So even just like most of our analysis weeks like

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Speaker 1: one too, is a little bit more of based on

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Speaker 1: our priors, based on offseason moves, and a little bit

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Speaker 1: more subjectivity than um, you know, objective data. I was

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Speaker 1: going to ask about Robinson's priors because one of the

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Speaker 1: big talking points for the defending champs is well, he's

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Speaker 1: never had a quarterback this good. And then you look

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Speaker 1: at what McVey did for Stafford, Um can he do

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Speaker 1: the same for Robinson. I'm kind of with you. I

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Speaker 1: drafted him in a in a keeper league with by

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Speaker 1: I think by first pick um, and so now I

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Speaker 1: have Cup and Robinson. But it does feel like in

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Speaker 1: the opener the same way. I don't know if you

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Speaker 1: saw USC they went and you know they got Jordan Addison,

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Speaker 1: the receiver from Pitt in the transfer portal, and like

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Speaker 1: there were all these negative stories about those two. What

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Speaker 1: does what do they do? In the first game, Lincoln Ley,

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Speaker 1: we gotta scheme him up, get him too touchdowns. Do

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Speaker 1: you see something like that for Robinson where mcveigh's seriously

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Speaker 1: focusing on getting the guy the ball. Oh yeah, and

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Speaker 1: not to mention too, it looks like Van Jefferson might

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Speaker 1: be out, so he's like, who's kind of like their

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Speaker 1: fringe to three guy. So now it's basically just gonna

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Speaker 1: be Robinson and Cup. I mean, Tyler Higbie is there,

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Speaker 1: but you know, he's just a guy. So I think

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Speaker 1: that they are going to soak up like the majority

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Speaker 1: of the targets, are gonna scheming to get him open.

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Speaker 1: And that's kind of been the narrative that I've heard

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Speaker 1: from multiple insiders who've sat down talked with McVeigh. Like

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Speaker 1: all we've heard is just they love Alan Robinson's gonna

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Speaker 1: try and scheme and get him open in the red

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Speaker 1: zone a bunch. So I think that he is a

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Speaker 1: great player attack early in the player problem market, like

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Speaker 1: you said, fantasy drafts, I think that he's a great target,

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Speaker 1: you know, fourth, fifth, sixth round. I've seen him go

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Speaker 1: depending on your league and format. Um, you know, I

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Speaker 1: think he's a great target this season maybe I didn't

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Speaker 1: get him third. Maybe I got to put my fourth

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Speaker 1: or fifth. I was driving. My daughter had to draft

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Speaker 1: for me, but I I mean I take him in

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Speaker 1: the third. Still. Anyways, that's that's more than cup and

401
00:18:09,119 --> 00:18:11,280
Speaker 1: Robinson's a little dicey. But um so I put it,

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Speaker 1: put it on the trade market, and I got some

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Speaker 1: dumb offers. I was like, no, thanks, um So, let's

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Speaker 1: talk about a couple other guys you really like, maybe

405
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Speaker 1: that you're most against the market on where the market

406
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Speaker 1: say loves trade Lance. I've seen his MVP plot odds plummet.

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Speaker 1: You know, where are you on a guy like Lance

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Speaker 1: where there really are no priors unless you want a

409
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Speaker 1: factor in his two appearances last year, oh man, So

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Speaker 1: Lance is a guy that I've gone back and forth

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Speaker 1: on all year and something that the reports have done

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Speaker 1: the same. So you know, every week basically we heard

413
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Speaker 1: either trade Lance through like five picks in practice or

414
00:18:40,760 --> 00:18:43,960
Speaker 1: he threw three touchdowns. Uh. And you know, I think

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Speaker 1: I kind of played into that. So I really am

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Speaker 1: happy with my portfolio futures wise, and like, I think

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Speaker 1: I have a good plan of PT tech him in season,

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Speaker 1: So futures wise, I bet him to win the MVP

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Speaker 1: at AFT one, and then I bet him to lead

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Speaker 1: to lead the league in interceptions. He threw eleven interceptible

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Speaker 1: passes in just two and a half gay games last year,

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Speaker 1: I mean, which is crazy. And then if you look

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Speaker 1: at in season, though, you know, I'm not gonna really

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Speaker 1: attack too much of his passing volume. I think that

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Speaker 1: he could be super efficient. He could be terrible, but

426
00:19:11,080 --> 00:19:13,800
Speaker 1: last year rushing wise, he went seven for forty one

427
00:19:13,800 --> 00:19:16,360
Speaker 1: and a half of Game sixteen eighty nine and eight

428
00:19:16,400 --> 00:19:17,960
Speaker 1: for thirty one. So I think we can get like

429
00:19:18,000 --> 00:19:20,640
Speaker 1: a rushing attempts props, rushing yardage props, and games we're

430
00:19:20,680 --> 00:19:23,119
Speaker 1: gonna be playing from behind or more competitive games. I

431
00:19:23,160 --> 00:19:26,040
Speaker 1: like attacking those a lot. So so it sounds like

432
00:19:26,080 --> 00:19:28,720
Speaker 1: quasi bullish. Now, when you saw the Garoppolo news, I

433
00:19:28,720 --> 00:19:30,639
Speaker 1: think this is where I disagree with you. On social

434
00:19:30,720 --> 00:19:33,080
Speaker 1: you were like, they got Garoppolo and not not a

435
00:19:33,080 --> 00:19:35,920
Speaker 1: big deal. But I don't know. It seems like the

436
00:19:36,600 --> 00:19:39,200
Speaker 1: media folks seem to be split to cover the team

437
00:19:39,240 --> 00:19:41,639
Speaker 1: as to how much this is a factor keeping Jimmy

438
00:19:41,680 --> 00:19:43,800
Speaker 1: g Yes, I mean that was my initial take. Now

439
00:19:43,840 --> 00:19:45,520
Speaker 1: I've kind of gone back a little bit and now

440
00:19:45,520 --> 00:19:47,760
Speaker 1: I'm a little bit more centered, but I still don't

441
00:19:47,760 --> 00:19:49,320
Speaker 1: think it's a big as big of a deal. I'm

442
00:19:49,320 --> 00:19:51,919
Speaker 1: sure you've already given your spiel, probably to your audience

443
00:19:51,960 --> 00:19:54,320
Speaker 1: at this point, but uh, you know, I think that

444
00:19:54,359 --> 00:19:56,639
Speaker 1: when they drafted Lance, they were ready to ride that

445
00:19:56,760 --> 00:19:59,160
Speaker 1: roller coaster. They were ready to take the ups and downs,

446
00:19:59,160 --> 00:20:01,560
Speaker 1: and they wanted more volatility and more upside with a

447
00:20:01,600 --> 00:20:04,159
Speaker 1: guy like him. Um, because you know, they got to

448
00:20:04,200 --> 00:20:06,119
Speaker 1: the they were able to make the Super Bowl. I

449
00:20:06,160 --> 00:20:08,040
Speaker 1: just don't think Jimmy g had what it took to

450
00:20:08,119 --> 00:20:09,960
Speaker 1: really to win them games. You know, he was able

451
00:20:10,000 --> 00:20:12,159
Speaker 1: to get them there. He's able to lead that team.

452
00:20:12,440 --> 00:20:14,920
Speaker 1: But for some to have a quarterback that can actually

453
00:20:14,960 --> 00:20:16,840
Speaker 1: win you a game, I think is something that they're

454
00:20:16,840 --> 00:20:18,640
Speaker 1: looking for now. I could be totally wrong. I mean,

455
00:20:18,680 --> 00:20:20,440
Speaker 1: that's could be if they just want to sit there

456
00:20:20,440 --> 00:20:21,960
Speaker 1: and you know, coast their way to the super Bowl

457
00:20:22,000 --> 00:20:23,760
Speaker 1: with banking on the talent that they already have. That's

458
00:20:23,800 --> 00:20:26,240
Speaker 1: more than fine. I'm sure if they have that talent,

459
00:20:26,320 --> 00:20:28,000
Speaker 1: But I think that that's kind of why they banked

460
00:20:28,000 --> 00:20:29,840
Speaker 1: on Lance. I thought that they got they were just

461
00:20:29,880 --> 00:20:31,960
Speaker 1: extending their time. I thought to trade Jimmy g Away

462
00:20:32,119 --> 00:20:34,280
Speaker 1: because the no trade clause is avoidable as long as

463
00:20:34,320 --> 00:20:37,000
Speaker 1: he agrees to a trade. So I don't know that

464
00:20:37,080 --> 00:20:39,040
Speaker 1: was my take, but you know, I think that there

465
00:20:39,160 --> 00:20:41,439
Speaker 1: is you know, has more information release there. There are

466
00:20:41,480 --> 00:20:45,280
Speaker 1: some good compelling arguments. Otherwise, Fox Sports Radio has the

467
00:20:45,320 --> 00:20:48,240
Speaker 1: best sports talk lineup in the nation. Catch all of

468
00:20:48,280 --> 00:20:51,800
Speaker 1: our shows at Fox sports Radio dot com and within

469
00:20:51,840 --> 00:20:54,280
Speaker 1: the I Heart Radio app search f s R to

470
00:20:54,440 --> 00:20:58,560
Speaker 1: listen live. A team. I'm probably a little too high

471
00:20:58,560 --> 00:21:01,719
Speaker 1: on as the Vikings and probably thinking from the Bengals

472
00:21:02,000 --> 00:21:06,080
Speaker 1: Zach Taylor mcveighuy thing, but like, I can totally see

473
00:21:06,200 --> 00:21:09,320
Speaker 1: scenario where O'Connell comes in. You know, they're they're no

474
00:21:09,359 --> 00:21:11,760
Speaker 1: longer looking like a plotting offense. Kirk Cousins is like

475
00:21:11,840 --> 00:21:15,639
Speaker 1: leading the league in passing Jefferson. I drafted Osborne in

476
00:21:15,640 --> 00:21:18,399
Speaker 1: one of my leagues. Like any thoughts on the Vikings

477
00:21:18,480 --> 00:21:20,720
Speaker 1: Kirk Cousins or is there enough of a sample on

478
00:21:20,760 --> 00:21:23,520
Speaker 1: Cousins that you're just like, no, thank you, No, I'm

479
00:21:23,520 --> 00:21:25,879
Speaker 1: I'm with you. I really like the Vikings passing offense.

480
00:21:26,040 --> 00:21:28,600
Speaker 1: I am very excited about them using Jeffery Dustin Jefferson

481
00:21:28,640 --> 00:21:31,040
Speaker 1: in that Cooper Cup role. He even said it himself.

482
00:21:31,440 --> 00:21:33,720
Speaker 1: He said that he was consistently watching the Rams asking,

483
00:21:33,760 --> 00:21:35,640
Speaker 1: you know, how is Cooper Cup always wide open? How

484
00:21:35,680 --> 00:21:37,600
Speaker 1: is that possible? And now he's like, I see it,

485
00:21:37,680 --> 00:21:40,520
Speaker 1: I'm open, you know, every play, And so I cannot

486
00:21:40,520 --> 00:21:42,800
Speaker 1: be more excited about an explosive player like Justin Jefferson

487
00:21:42,840 --> 00:21:46,280
Speaker 1: operating that offense. I think feeling celess juice kJ Osborne

488
00:21:46,480 --> 00:21:48,200
Speaker 1: or if Smith looks like he's gonna be good to

489
00:21:48,240 --> 00:21:50,440
Speaker 1: go for week one. Now, defensively, I have a couple

490
00:21:50,440 --> 00:21:52,639
Speaker 1: of questions, you know about the team. Think that you know,

491
00:21:52,640 --> 00:21:54,400
Speaker 1: the past rush should be all right, but the secondaries

492
00:21:54,400 --> 00:21:56,679
Speaker 1: a little suspect. But from an offensive standpoint, I think

493
00:21:56,680 --> 00:21:58,520
Speaker 1: that we are going to see a lot of passing,

494
00:21:58,560 --> 00:22:01,320
Speaker 1: a lot of good like skiming, and we should see

495
00:22:01,320 --> 00:22:02,600
Speaker 1: a lot of overs. I think that that's kind of

496
00:22:02,640 --> 00:22:04,679
Speaker 1: my take is just in general, maybe not week one

497
00:22:04,720 --> 00:22:07,240
Speaker 1: again screen Bay. They have a stellar defense, but outside

498
00:22:07,240 --> 00:22:08,480
Speaker 1: of that, I think that there could be some good

499
00:22:08,480 --> 00:22:11,240
Speaker 1: spots to buy some overs and the Vikings. Early I

500
00:22:11,240 --> 00:22:14,320
Speaker 1: saw that Peter King did not have the Denver Broncos

501
00:22:14,400 --> 00:22:16,800
Speaker 1: making the playoffs. I'm kind of high on them. I'm

502
00:22:16,840 --> 00:22:19,120
Speaker 1: a Russell Wilson fan. I know last year's numbers were

503
00:22:19,400 --> 00:22:22,399
Speaker 1: up and down. Anything you see at a Denver plot

504
00:22:22,560 --> 00:22:27,280
Speaker 1: prop prop or team wise, Yeah, there was a prop

505
00:22:27,359 --> 00:22:29,920
Speaker 1: on Courtland Sutton. I took over sixty two and a

506
00:22:29,960 --> 00:22:32,480
Speaker 1: half receptions on the season. Um. But I do think

507
00:22:32,480 --> 00:22:36,920
Speaker 1: that this team in general is they're rated properly because

508
00:22:37,119 --> 00:22:39,600
Speaker 1: the division so hard. They have a really tough schedule. Obviously,

509
00:22:39,680 --> 00:22:42,760
Speaker 1: the Chiefs, the Raiders, the Chargers all would be you know,

510
00:22:42,800 --> 00:22:45,200
Speaker 1: playoff teams and basically every other division in the league

511
00:22:45,280 --> 00:22:47,639
Speaker 1: or at least borderline. Uh, And so I think that

512
00:22:47,680 --> 00:22:50,439
Speaker 1: makes it a harder. But really, I don't think that

513
00:22:50,480 --> 00:22:53,560
Speaker 1: we can, you know, overestimate how much Russell Wilson matters

514
00:22:53,560 --> 00:22:56,200
Speaker 1: of this Broncos team that's just dealt with terrible quarterbacks

515
00:22:56,200 --> 00:22:58,720
Speaker 1: of play for the most time, and before his injury

516
00:22:58,800 --> 00:23:01,840
Speaker 1: last year was still extan ep A plus completion percentage

517
00:23:01,840 --> 00:23:04,119
Speaker 1: over expectation. So like it's not like he was he

518
00:23:04,160 --> 00:23:05,600
Speaker 1: had a bad end of the year, but you know,

519
00:23:05,640 --> 00:23:07,840
Speaker 1: he he was okay before that, and then I mean

520
00:23:07,880 --> 00:23:10,119
Speaker 1: his whole career, he's he's by far the most efficient

521
00:23:10,200 --> 00:23:12,280
Speaker 1: quarterback to Broncos will have had. And Coralan's Son and

522
00:23:12,359 --> 00:23:15,240
Speaker 1: Jerry Judy I think are both too underrated options right now.

523
00:23:15,480 --> 00:23:17,160
Speaker 1: They just haven't been able to put it all together,

524
00:23:17,160 --> 00:23:20,119
Speaker 1: whether it's injury, whether it is in efficient quarterback play.

525
00:23:20,400 --> 00:23:23,560
Speaker 1: And now they have coaching who's working directly with Russell

526
00:23:23,560 --> 00:23:25,480
Speaker 1: Wilson to build this offense. So I think that they're

527
00:23:25,480 --> 00:23:28,000
Speaker 1: in a great spot offensively and defensively they need a

528
00:23:28,000 --> 00:23:29,840
Speaker 1: little more o their pass rush, but they have some

529
00:23:29,840 --> 00:23:32,480
Speaker 1: good pieces in the secondary too. So I'm excited about

530
00:23:32,480 --> 00:23:34,520
Speaker 1: this Broncos team and think that if they make the playoffs,

531
00:23:34,880 --> 00:23:36,720
Speaker 1: I'm considering like live betting them to win the Super

532
00:23:36,760 --> 00:23:38,800
Speaker 1: Bowl because they get everything clicking, they have pieces to

533
00:23:38,840 --> 00:23:41,680
Speaker 1: do so interesting, and they're potentially a big home field

534
00:23:41,720 --> 00:23:45,320
Speaker 1: advantage uh at Mile High or investor whatever they call

535
00:23:45,359 --> 00:23:48,359
Speaker 1: it in January, you know, um, so you know the

536
00:23:48,440 --> 00:23:51,600
Speaker 1: other thing is a f C obviously very loaded and difficult,

537
00:23:52,040 --> 00:23:55,000
Speaker 1: are you You know for some team futures, I gravitated

538
00:23:55,040 --> 00:23:57,000
Speaker 1: towards the overs in the NFC because it's a little

539
00:23:57,000 --> 00:23:59,400
Speaker 1: weaker and unders in the a f C. Or does

540
00:23:59,440 --> 00:24:02,560
Speaker 1: that correlate with player props as well or no? So

541
00:24:02,600 --> 00:24:04,680
Speaker 1: from our for my season long player props, I actually

542
00:24:04,680 --> 00:24:07,080
Speaker 1: did some research on this. Almost all of my portfolios

543
00:24:07,119 --> 00:24:10,720
Speaker 1: underst I've taking bets on over unders. Uh, fifteen of

544
00:24:10,720 --> 00:24:12,760
Speaker 1: them are unders. If you go back to last year

545
00:24:12,800 --> 00:24:15,040
Speaker 1: and look at the two forty three player props that

546
00:24:15,320 --> 00:24:18,520
Speaker 1: the sports books released, it was like sixty percent of

547
00:24:18,520 --> 00:24:20,640
Speaker 1: them went under. Whether that was due to injury, whether

548
00:24:20,680 --> 00:24:23,240
Speaker 1: it was due to um, you know, inefficiency. And I

549
00:24:23,240 --> 00:24:25,399
Speaker 1: think there's just so many outs on unders. UM. So

550
00:24:25,400 --> 00:24:26,960
Speaker 1: I'm not saying don't ever bet overs. You know, I

551
00:24:27,040 --> 00:24:29,040
Speaker 1: obviously I have a couple, but you know I skew

552
00:24:29,119 --> 00:24:32,040
Speaker 1: my action accordingly so that almost all of them are unders.

553
00:24:32,040 --> 00:24:33,639
Speaker 1: And at this point most of the numbers are gone.

554
00:24:33,800 --> 00:24:35,040
Speaker 1: And I was able to get a good number on

555
00:24:35,040 --> 00:24:38,080
Speaker 1: like Cam Akers and J K. Dobbins before his injury,

556
00:24:38,119 --> 00:24:40,080
Speaker 1: can think kind of flared up, um. And there was

557
00:24:40,240 --> 00:24:42,520
Speaker 1: a bunch of other examples as well, but at this point,

558
00:24:42,560 --> 00:24:44,920
Speaker 1: you know, I generally skewed towards unders, least throughout the

559
00:24:44,920 --> 00:24:46,800
Speaker 1: off season. All right, So we could wrap up with

560
00:24:46,840 --> 00:24:49,240
Speaker 1: any other week one actionable stuff you already mentioned the

561
00:24:49,240 --> 00:24:54,720
Speaker 1: Thursday Night or Allen Robinson anything, uh, prop side total.

562
00:24:55,119 --> 00:24:57,240
Speaker 1: I don't know if you're getting exotic with like first

563
00:24:57,240 --> 00:25:01,040
Speaker 1: halves um but I don't early in the season, do

564
00:25:01,080 --> 00:25:04,600
Speaker 1: you also tend to play unders or overs on full games,

565
00:25:04,640 --> 00:25:06,879
Speaker 1: because I just it feels like, and I don't have

566
00:25:06,960 --> 00:25:08,760
Speaker 1: numbers to back that up. The teams come out, they're

567
00:25:08,800 --> 00:25:11,400
Speaker 1: gonna be a little tight early in the season. Yeah,

568
00:25:11,400 --> 00:25:14,320
Speaker 1: I think something to look for is also they passed

569
00:25:14,320 --> 00:25:16,320
Speaker 1: the new rule like to really try they're trying to

570
00:25:16,359 --> 00:25:19,600
Speaker 1: focus on illegal contact as well. The last two times

571
00:25:19,640 --> 00:25:23,200
Speaker 1: we saw that, um you know, play illegal contact ended up.

572
00:25:23,480 --> 00:25:25,760
Speaker 1: I think it was more than doubling in those years,

573
00:25:25,760 --> 00:25:27,640
Speaker 1: so we saw it from the prior year they believe

574
00:25:27,680 --> 00:25:29,520
Speaker 1: it was in the early two thousand's. I can send

575
00:25:29,520 --> 00:25:31,680
Speaker 1: you the exact numbers here, you know, after the show.

576
00:25:31,720 --> 00:25:33,320
Speaker 1: But I think that's something to look for. It didn't

577
00:25:33,320 --> 00:25:35,480
Speaker 1: necessarily impact the amount of overs or unders, but it

578
00:25:35,520 --> 00:25:37,679
Speaker 1: did raise the amount of total points. So essentially the

579
00:25:37,720 --> 00:25:40,600
Speaker 1: market reacted accordingly to that, and then the closing lines

580
00:25:40,760 --> 00:25:43,080
Speaker 1: were not impacted. But I would say in the problem market,

581
00:25:43,160 --> 00:25:45,840
Speaker 1: that means that there could be more more plays, there

582
00:25:45,880 --> 00:25:49,119
Speaker 1: could be more yards, more points. Um. So I do

583
00:25:49,200 --> 00:25:51,160
Speaker 1: think that early in the season there could be some

584
00:25:51,160 --> 00:25:53,719
Speaker 1: some you know, availability for overs, but just in general

585
00:25:53,800 --> 00:25:58,120
Speaker 1: taking unders on players, um in uncertain situations is always

586
00:25:58,160 --> 00:25:59,679
Speaker 1: the better idea. You know, like you said, they come

587
00:25:59,680 --> 00:26:02,760
Speaker 1: out tie. We don't know a lot of their their roles. Um,

588
00:26:02,800 --> 00:26:04,520
Speaker 1: you know one that I think is another good look

589
00:26:04,520 --> 00:26:07,800
Speaker 1: for Thursday, cam Akers under sixty one and a half

590
00:26:07,880 --> 00:26:11,080
Speaker 1: rushing receiving yards. You know, Sean mcvey's talked about how

591
00:26:11,240 --> 00:26:13,639
Speaker 1: he really likes Dyrrel Anderson, he likes kyr And Williams,

592
00:26:13,640 --> 00:26:16,359
Speaker 1: who arrested in the third preseason game, uh, and wants

593
00:26:16,359 --> 00:26:18,720
Speaker 1: to use him in the passing game. So you know,

594
00:26:18,760 --> 00:26:20,320
Speaker 1: if he's in the passing game and you have Darrell

595
00:26:20,359 --> 00:26:23,280
Speaker 1: Henderson mixing in, cam Akers is gonna get what twelve thirteen,

596
00:26:23,480 --> 00:26:26,400
Speaker 1: fourteen carries maybe and then one target. You know. So

597
00:26:26,680 --> 00:26:28,920
Speaker 1: I think for him coming off a torn Achilles, where

598
00:26:29,000 --> 00:26:31,240
Speaker 1: running backs are over twelve and the last ten years

599
00:26:31,280 --> 00:26:33,439
Speaker 1: of ever being efficient in their entire career, I know,

600
00:26:33,520 --> 00:26:36,280
Speaker 1: he's really pretty Yeah. There they go back and look

601
00:26:36,280 --> 00:26:38,000
Speaker 1: at the history. It's pretty crazy. I mean Marlon mack

602
00:26:38,040 --> 00:26:39,719
Speaker 1: is the most recent example at this point, was just

603
00:26:39,760 --> 00:26:42,040
Speaker 1: cut from the Texans and then now demoted to the

604
00:26:42,040 --> 00:26:45,080
Speaker 1: practice spot. I mean, he wasn't awesome, but you know

605
00:26:45,119 --> 00:26:46,600
Speaker 1: he was good at one point in his career, he

606
00:26:46,640 --> 00:26:49,000
Speaker 1: was a pretty solid running back, so it's it's something

607
00:26:49,000 --> 00:26:50,719
Speaker 1: worth noting. I took I like Deander on that one

608
00:26:50,760 --> 00:26:53,239
Speaker 1: for Thursday. It does look like the total's gone up,

609
00:26:53,240 --> 00:26:56,159
Speaker 1: but I think that's probably an anticipation of you know,

610
00:26:56,320 --> 00:26:58,200
Speaker 1: the Rams winning through the air, as you said, not

611
00:26:58,280 --> 00:27:01,160
Speaker 1: Tredavious White, and then if flows behind, they're just gonna

612
00:27:01,160 --> 00:27:04,440
Speaker 1: be chucking. Oh yeah, yeah yeah. And I think the

613
00:27:04,560 --> 00:27:07,159
Speaker 1: Buffalo defense a little overrated last year. I know the

614
00:27:07,240 --> 00:27:09,560
Speaker 1: numbers were great, but then you dig in and look

615
00:27:09,560 --> 00:27:11,520
Speaker 1: at the schedule a little bit, and the quarterbacks they

616
00:27:11,520 --> 00:27:14,240
Speaker 1: faced not not exactly a murderers row. They didn't kill

617
00:27:14,280 --> 00:27:17,080
Speaker 1: teams last year. They were good. No, yeah, it was

618
00:27:17,119 --> 00:27:19,760
Speaker 1: like I think almost all of their teams that they

619
00:27:19,800 --> 00:27:21,480
Speaker 1: played were, you know, in the bottom half of the

620
00:27:21,560 --> 00:27:23,840
Speaker 1: league in terms of passing efficiency. They played just so

621
00:27:23,880 --> 00:27:26,640
Speaker 1: many backups and obviously they played well, so you can't

622
00:27:26,680 --> 00:27:28,680
Speaker 1: necessarily knock them for that. But at the same time,

623
00:27:28,800 --> 00:27:31,160
Speaker 1: when they played good offenses, you know, they were still

624
00:27:31,280 --> 00:27:33,720
Speaker 1: allowing plenty of points. They were still a beatable defense.

625
00:27:33,880 --> 00:27:36,760
Speaker 1: It's not like they were some you know, early Ravens,

626
00:27:36,800 --> 00:27:39,440
Speaker 1: you know, or eighty five Bears just like locking teams down.

627
00:27:39,680 --> 00:27:42,520
Speaker 1: They had plenty of holes themselves, right, I want to

628
00:27:42,560 --> 00:27:45,040
Speaker 1: obviously I got a crowbar in the Jets question. So,

629
00:27:45,160 --> 00:27:47,479
Speaker 1: I you know, I saw this stuff about Zack Wilson

630
00:27:47,680 --> 00:27:49,560
Speaker 1: maybe able to play. I think that's just games of

631
00:27:49,560 --> 00:27:51,880
Speaker 1: the ship, right, it's gonna be Flacco. That being said,

632
00:27:51,920 --> 00:27:54,520
Speaker 1: how do you adjust or is there any or is

633
00:27:54,520 --> 00:27:56,639
Speaker 1: there nothing? You just staying away from Ravens coming off

634
00:27:56,680 --> 00:27:59,480
Speaker 1: all the injuries versus the Jets, who you know, their

635
00:27:59,520 --> 00:28:02,200
Speaker 1: run beef has been good under Solo, but the passing

636
00:28:02,240 --> 00:28:04,320
Speaker 1: game is past. Defense has been awful because the second

637
00:28:04,320 --> 00:28:06,520
Speaker 1: he was terrible, But then again, the Ravens receivers are

638
00:28:06,560 --> 00:28:09,200
Speaker 1: not good. Um, how how do you handicap this? Is

639
00:28:09,240 --> 00:28:11,320
Speaker 1: there a chance that the Jets steal this in a

640
00:28:11,320 --> 00:28:14,439
Speaker 1: low scoring game? I mean I think that there could be,

641
00:28:14,520 --> 00:28:16,240
Speaker 1: But I'm I'm kind of willing to bet on a

642
00:28:16,359 --> 00:28:18,679
Speaker 1: Ravens bounce back. Here the most injured team in NFL

643
00:28:18,720 --> 00:28:21,840
Speaker 1: history last season and according to football Outsiders, Um, and

644
00:28:21,920 --> 00:28:24,160
Speaker 1: I think you're right. I'm assuming Joe Flacco starts here,

645
00:28:24,480 --> 00:28:26,800
Speaker 1: And I mean if they somehow through Zach Wilson in there,

646
00:28:26,840 --> 00:28:29,919
Speaker 1: that would be a complete, complete disaster. I mean twenty

647
00:28:29,920 --> 00:28:31,920
Speaker 1: eight and ep a per play last year, thirty one

648
00:28:32,040 --> 00:28:34,879
Speaker 1: in passing per play, and they made some upgrades offensively,

649
00:28:34,920 --> 00:28:37,280
Speaker 1: you know, obviously their obfensive line is getting healthier and

650
00:28:37,320 --> 00:28:39,200
Speaker 1: we project them to be better, but I'm still a

651
00:28:39,200 --> 00:28:40,840
Speaker 1: little worried about them. And then the Ravens you know,

652
00:28:40,920 --> 00:28:44,440
Speaker 1: got healthier at Kyle Hamilton's, Marcus Williams, Travis Jones, Michael

653
00:28:44,440 --> 00:28:47,760
Speaker 1: Pierce defensively. Um so, you know, I think that the Ravens,

654
00:28:47,800 --> 00:28:50,120
Speaker 1: like just as a whole, go back to their kind

655
00:28:50,120 --> 00:28:52,280
Speaker 1: of run heavy approach from what we saw before. You know,

656
00:28:52,320 --> 00:28:54,120
Speaker 1: all things as long as they're not down, which if

657
00:28:54,120 --> 00:28:56,080
Speaker 1: they're losing to the Jets by you know, a negative

658
00:28:56,120 --> 00:28:58,640
Speaker 1: game script, then some stuff is seriously gone off the

659
00:28:58,720 --> 00:29:01,000
Speaker 1: rails here. But the Jet team total, I like, I

660
00:29:01,040 --> 00:29:03,440
Speaker 1: think the under there we talked about earlier on Twitter,

661
00:29:03,560 --> 00:29:05,120
Speaker 1: I think you're able to find like eighteen and a

662
00:29:05,160 --> 00:29:07,760
Speaker 1: half nineteen. I think that that is uh, you know

663
00:29:07,800 --> 00:29:10,400
Speaker 1: a bit too. I should be about seventeen um against

664
00:29:10,400 --> 00:29:12,080
Speaker 1: the I think it should be a low scoring game.

665
00:29:12,080 --> 00:29:13,400
Speaker 1: Like you said, the Ravens are gonna try to run

666
00:29:13,440 --> 00:29:15,479
Speaker 1: the ball the Jets. I don't anticipate having to too

667
00:29:15,560 --> 00:29:18,640
Speaker 1: much excess success against the Ravens. So regardless even if

668
00:29:18,680 --> 00:29:20,960
Speaker 1: the Jets, you know, maybe lose by three or you know,

669
00:29:21,000 --> 00:29:23,000
Speaker 1: they come close and if you, like you said, able

670
00:29:23,000 --> 00:29:24,760
Speaker 1: to steal it in the Ravens offensesn't working at all,

671
00:29:24,960 --> 00:29:26,840
Speaker 1: the game is going to be have very few plays

672
00:29:26,880 --> 00:29:30,160
Speaker 1: and really be I think low scoring. I'm assuming you

673
00:29:30,200 --> 00:29:33,400
Speaker 1: went to Illinois Wesley and your Bears fan Midwest guy

674
00:29:33,520 --> 00:29:36,280
Speaker 1: or what. Yeah, I actually grew up in Colorado, so

675
00:29:36,280 --> 00:29:37,960
Speaker 1: I'm I'm a Broncos fan, so I was there for

676
00:29:37,960 --> 00:29:39,480
Speaker 1: a little bit and then you know the rest of

677
00:29:39,520 --> 00:29:43,000
Speaker 1: my career was in our life was in uh Chicago.

678
00:29:43,120 --> 00:29:45,160
Speaker 1: But you know, I wouldn't say that I'm a Barriers fan.

679
00:29:45,200 --> 00:29:47,320
Speaker 1: At this point. I think I was gonna wonder about

680
00:29:47,360 --> 00:29:49,800
Speaker 1: betting on the Niners on the road is a big favorite.

681
00:29:50,040 --> 00:29:52,400
Speaker 1: I obviously tease them down. They're one of the best

682
00:29:52,400 --> 00:29:55,120
Speaker 1: team legs, but like seven points. I think it's seven

683
00:29:55,520 --> 00:29:57,480
Speaker 1: on the road. I know the Bears stink this year

684
00:29:58,080 --> 00:30:01,480
Speaker 1: or they project to, but anything air or no. Yeah,

685
00:30:01,600 --> 00:30:03,440
Speaker 1: So I think that's another team total under from me.

686
00:30:03,520 --> 00:30:05,680
Speaker 1: Bears under seventeen points you can get right now at

687
00:30:05,720 --> 00:30:08,720
Speaker 1: some shops. I think that that is great. Dolphins of line,

688
00:30:08,840 --> 00:30:11,920
Speaker 1: as you mentioned, projects to be terrible defense. Uh, is

689
00:30:11,960 --> 00:30:13,719
Speaker 1: not in a good good spot here. I just don't know.

690
00:30:13,960 --> 00:30:15,200
Speaker 1: I just don't know how they're going to move the

691
00:30:15,240 --> 00:30:17,560
Speaker 1: ball against the Niners defense that is obviously still missing

692
00:30:17,560 --> 00:30:20,040
Speaker 1: some pieces from last year, but I mean projects to

693
00:30:20,080 --> 00:30:23,080
Speaker 1: be a pretty significant upgrade from what they're facing in

694
00:30:23,240 --> 00:30:25,720
Speaker 1: training camp. And all the b reported training campers saying

695
00:30:25,880 --> 00:30:27,720
Speaker 1: they can't even move the ball against this Bears defense,

696
00:30:27,760 --> 00:30:30,000
Speaker 1: which has I mean, they lost three or four their

697
00:30:30,000 --> 00:30:32,640
Speaker 1: best players essentially outside of like Roque one, and they

698
00:30:32,760 --> 00:30:34,640
Speaker 1: they got back um, you know, the other guy. But

699
00:30:34,880 --> 00:30:38,000
Speaker 1: it's the lost pool Mac lost, Eddie Goldman, lost schem Nicks.

700
00:30:38,400 --> 00:30:41,040
Speaker 1: It's it's tough to imagine them being good. Uh. And

701
00:30:41,040 --> 00:30:44,280
Speaker 1: then finally, I as a Jets fan, I'm conditioned to

702
00:30:44,320 --> 00:30:46,560
Speaker 1: not like the Dolphins or Patriots, but I especially don't

703
00:30:46,560 --> 00:30:48,920
Speaker 1: like the Patriots. And I don't know how much you

704
00:30:48,960 --> 00:30:53,440
Speaker 1: read to these narratives about um Belichick and who's calling

705
00:30:53,440 --> 00:30:55,760
Speaker 1: the plays and Matt Jones seems unhappy and that no

706
00:30:55,880 --> 00:30:59,760
Speaker 1: separation for davantep Parker like, it all lines up pretty badly.

707
00:30:59,800 --> 00:31:02,760
Speaker 1: They go down to the heat to Miami on Sunday.

708
00:31:02,840 --> 00:31:05,280
Speaker 1: It's gonna be hot, and there's all this excitement about

709
00:31:05,280 --> 00:31:08,880
Speaker 1: too and on he's now a captain. I kind of

710
00:31:08,880 --> 00:31:11,800
Speaker 1: want to talk myself under the Dolphins, but going against

711
00:31:11,840 --> 00:31:16,680
Speaker 1: Belichick has not been profitable any team. Uh side, Uh

712
00:31:16,840 --> 00:31:19,200
Speaker 1: props to anything you like in that one. I I

713
00:31:19,320 --> 00:31:21,800
Speaker 1: leaned towards the Dolphins, like you mentioned here, I don't

714
00:31:21,880 --> 00:31:23,520
Speaker 1: I don't necessarily make a huge deal out of the

715
00:31:23,520 --> 00:31:25,280
Speaker 1: who's calling place thing. I think the Bill Belt chick

716
00:31:25,280 --> 00:31:27,280
Speaker 1: will kind of figure that out. Um. But at the

717
00:31:27,320 --> 00:31:29,160
Speaker 1: same time, they are changing, you know, from it to

718
00:31:29,200 --> 00:31:31,960
Speaker 1: his zone blocking scheme, they're changing. They have Deante Parker

719
00:31:31,960 --> 00:31:33,920
Speaker 1: who has never been able to separate, you know, that's

720
00:31:33,920 --> 00:31:37,920
Speaker 1: not not nothing new for them. And then like defensively,

721
00:31:37,920 --> 00:31:39,440
Speaker 1: I think they have a couple of issues as well too.

722
00:31:39,480 --> 00:31:41,479
Speaker 1: So whereas the Dolphins, I'm a big believer in Mike

723
00:31:41,560 --> 00:31:43,280
Speaker 1: McDaniel kind of what he's bringing over there and the

724
00:31:43,280 --> 00:31:45,800
Speaker 1: pieces there is in place. So you know, Tyreek Kill,

725
00:31:45,880 --> 00:31:48,120
Speaker 1: Jalen Waddle just doing a ton of play action, a

726
00:31:48,160 --> 00:31:50,000
Speaker 1: ton of getting them into space. You know, I really

727
00:31:50,200 --> 00:31:52,200
Speaker 1: am excited to kind of see that happen. And well,

728
00:31:52,320 --> 00:31:54,160
Speaker 1: whether or not to h is you know, the real

729
00:31:54,240 --> 00:31:55,520
Speaker 1: deal of what he was made out to be coming

730
00:31:55,520 --> 00:31:57,800
Speaker 1: out of college, the tank for to a narrative, you know,

731
00:31:58,160 --> 00:32:00,760
Speaker 1: probably a little overblown at this point, but you know,

732
00:32:00,760 --> 00:32:02,080
Speaker 1: I think that he can be competent. I think he

733
00:32:02,080 --> 00:32:03,880
Speaker 1: gets a little too much hate for his arm and

734
00:32:03,880 --> 00:32:06,040
Speaker 1: that we look at what they did in San Francisco.

735
00:32:06,240 --> 00:32:08,360
Speaker 1: I mean, Jimmy g year over year has one of

736
00:32:08,400 --> 00:32:11,719
Speaker 1: the highest completetion percentages over expectation because they're just scheaming

737
00:32:11,720 --> 00:32:14,360
Speaker 1: guys open. There's always guys open. Whereas now we get

738
00:32:14,360 --> 00:32:16,920
Speaker 1: that in Miami. Here with Mike McDaniel coming over from

739
00:32:16,920 --> 00:32:19,640
Speaker 1: San Francisco, I think that we were able to see

740
00:32:19,680 --> 00:32:21,200
Speaker 1: the same thing. And when you're giving that two guys

741
00:32:21,200 --> 00:32:23,920
Speaker 1: like Tyreek, guys like Jalen Waddle, Uh, that's gonna be

742
00:32:23,920 --> 00:32:26,080
Speaker 1: pretty exciting. So I'm confident of the Dolphins. I think

743
00:32:26,320 --> 00:32:29,120
Speaker 1: minus two and a half. I'm interested in it all right.

744
00:32:29,440 --> 00:32:32,520
Speaker 1: He has Connor Allen and his Twitter hand O'Connor Allen

745
00:32:32,800 --> 00:32:36,120
Speaker 1: nfl um. What do you recommend people just listen to

746
00:32:36,120 --> 00:32:38,920
Speaker 1: your podcast, subscribe to the website? What what what's the

747
00:32:38,920 --> 00:32:41,160
Speaker 1: best way for them to get get your bets and

748
00:32:41,160 --> 00:32:43,320
Speaker 1: and get in the mix. Yeah, if you go to

749
00:32:43,360 --> 00:32:46,000
Speaker 1: a four for four dot com you can get all

750
00:32:46,120 --> 00:32:48,040
Speaker 1: my bets as part of our betting subscription. But we

751
00:32:48,080 --> 00:32:51,560
Speaker 1: also do a size and totals podcast on Thursday under

752
00:32:51,600 --> 00:32:53,960
Speaker 1: called Move the Line, and on Friday we do a

753
00:32:53,960 --> 00:32:56,680
Speaker 1: player props version. So whatever your fancy is, you know

754
00:32:56,680 --> 00:32:58,760
Speaker 1: we'll have bets for you and uh, you know it

755
00:32:58,760 --> 00:33:01,640
Speaker 1: should be a good time. Awesome stuff. Connor, thanks, uh,

756
00:33:01,640 --> 00:33:04,680
Speaker 1: and congrats on your rise. Man, you're doing a great job. Thanks, Jason,

757
00:33:04,720 --> 00:33:06,200
Speaker 1: really appreciate appreciating me on