WEBVTT - Single Best Idea with Tom Keene: Rebecca Patterson & Claudia Sahm

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<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. A single best idea,

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<v Speaker 1>which is Jobs Day even greater. September may give us

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<v Speaker 1>two jobs days. There's a jobs Day today and on

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<v Speaker 1>September ninth, next week. This huge revision. Some people say

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<v Speaker 1>it's not a big deal. Many others shout out Stephen Englander,

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<v Speaker 1>Stephanie Roth, Anna Wong. They say it's a big deal.

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<v Speaker 1>We'll see we have two jobs days in September, and

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<v Speaker 1>we'll give you as good a coverage as we can.

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<v Speaker 1>Today we are in Fanish. Rebecca Patterson joined us here

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<v Speaker 1>and we talked about investment as well as jobs. Here's

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<v Speaker 1>Rebecca Patterson on retail out front of the Street.

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<v Speaker 2>Stocks are near all time highs now. I think a

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<v Speaker 2>lot of that is retail investors. I think a lot

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<v Speaker 2>of that still is investors who want exposure to the

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<v Speaker 2>more structural trade themes like AI beneficiaries, global defense, and infrastructure.

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<v Speaker 2>But that is still creating wealth for consumers which allows

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<v Speaker 2>them to keep spending. So I think the risk appetite

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<v Speaker 2>is there. But I think gold is sending us a

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<v Speaker 2>signal up thirty five percent year to date. You know,

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<v Speaker 2>I worry that we're going to have a Brexit moment

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<v Speaker 2>that everything is fine, fine, fine, and then suddenly it's not.

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<v Speaker 2>And that's what we saw in twenty sixteen when the

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<v Speaker 2>referendum was announced in February till the vote in June,

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<v Speaker 2>UK markets were commcom com and then June twenty third

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<v Speaker 2>we got the vote and suddenly people said, oh, this

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<v Speaker 2>is actually real, and everything collapsed.

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<v Speaker 1>So Rebecca Patterson there were the Council on Foreign Relations,

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<v Speaker 1>look for her essays. You'll see him in the FT

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<v Speaker 1>and at Bloomberg. W really look for Rebecca Patterson on

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<v Speaker 1>that important Brexit idea at the Council on Foreign Relations

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<v Speaker 1>where she holds court. Claudia sam with us is always

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<v Speaker 1>on job, says what a value add not of the

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<v Speaker 1>sum rule, but Claudius on the idea of what part

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<v Speaker 1>of America is struggling.

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<v Speaker 3>There are demographic groups that have unemployment rates in the

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<v Speaker 3>best of times that look like recessions for other demographic groups.

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<v Speaker 3>I mean, we have some real structural problems and differences

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<v Speaker 3>in our economy. The fence tool with interest rates is

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<v Speaker 3>a really weak tool. So the best thing they can do,

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<v Speaker 3>and it helps everybody and particular those on the margins,

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<v Speaker 3>is to keep the economy as stable as possible, keep

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<v Speaker 3>inflation low, keep unemployment low, and that is their mandate.

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<v Speaker 3>But that's a bigger mandate that goes beyond the Fed.

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<v Speaker 1>Claudia sam They are providing assistance before a jobs report

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<v Speaker 1>that confirm the caution of so many a twenty two

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<v Speaker 1>thousand statistics some revisions that were challenging as well. The

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<v Speaker 1>unemployment rate ticks up from four point two to four

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<v Speaker 1>point five percent. One observation I want to mention that

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<v Speaker 1>was published today. It's not a single best idea, but

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<v Speaker 1>we'll take it. We'll steal from Peter Bearson. He's a

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<v Speaker 1>bank credit analyst, which is a hugely prestigious shop out

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<v Speaker 1>of Montreal, a wonderful multi decade tradition and Barrison Health

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<v Speaker 1>Court at Gold and Sachs for years, and he says,

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<v Speaker 1>look at the people seeking a job who aren't in

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<v Speaker 1>the labor force. It's growing each and every day. Michael

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<v Speaker 1>Gabin suggests we may see seventy five basis points of

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<v Speaker 1>cuts here in this new job economy on podcasts where

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<v Speaker 1>at Apple or at Spotify YouTube podcasts as well, it's

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<v Speaker 1>single best idea