WEBVTT - Anna Merlan & Daniel Nichanian

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<v Speaker 1>Hi, I'm Molly John Fast and this is Fast Politics. Well,

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<v Speaker 1>we discussed the top political headlines with some of today's

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<v Speaker 1>best minds.

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<v Speaker 2>We're on vacation, but that doesn't mean we don't have

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<v Speaker 2>a great show for you Today. Bolts Magazines Daniel Nacatia

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<v Speaker 2>details how states are going to affect policy in twenty

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<v Speaker 2>twenty five. But first we'll talk to mother Jones Eda

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<v Speaker 2>Merlin about how rfk's conspiracy minded world is making new

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<v Speaker 2>conspiracy theories about a pandemic.

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<v Speaker 1>Welcome back to past polity, Axanna, thanks for having me.

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<v Speaker 1>What's happening right now is so completely insane, So I

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<v Speaker 1>want you to first talk to us about this paranoia

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<v Speaker 1>about a post inauguration plandemic.

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<v Speaker 3>Yeah.

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<v Speaker 4>So, essentially what happened with this is that a scientist

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<v Speaker 4>and vaccine expert named doctor Peter Hotez went on MSNBC

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<v Speaker 4>and said that there are these kind of obvious disease

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<v Speaker 4>outbreak threats the next Trump administration is going to.

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<v Speaker 5>Have to deal with.

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<v Speaker 4>Right specifically, he said, we have some big picture stuff

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<v Speaker 4>coming down the pipe, meaning you know, ab and flu news,

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<v Speaker 4>streams of COVID, other potential outbreaks and sort of conspiracy

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<v Speaker 4>theorists mostly on the rate took that to me and

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<v Speaker 4>that he was threatening to unleash disease outbreaks during the

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<v Speaker 4>next Trump administration, because he also said all that stuff

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<v Speaker 4>is going to come crashing down on January twenty first

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<v Speaker 4>on the Trump administration. We need a really good team

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<v Speaker 4>to be able to handle this. So that was taken

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<v Speaker 4>as not just he's warning about disease outbreaks. That was

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<v Speaker 4>taken as he says they're going to He's going to

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<v Speaker 4>cause them, which is ridiculous.

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<v Speaker 1>Right, It is so completely beyond crazy this idea. So

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<v Speaker 1>what is the thinking here and who are the people

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<v Speaker 1>who are narrating this?

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<v Speaker 6>Right?

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<v Speaker 4>So, I think the first important thing to kind of

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<v Speaker 4>know here is that doctor Hotez is a really frequent

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<v Speaker 4>sort of target of the anti vaccine movement and the

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<v Speaker 4>right and the far right, you know, just to kind

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<v Speaker 4>of set the scene, he's, like I believe he's he

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<v Speaker 4>wears a bow tie. He's a recognized vaccine expert and

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<v Speaker 4>has been for years and was a real proponent during

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<v Speaker 4>COVID four people to get vaccinated. And then all of

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<v Speaker 4>that has put him on the radar of people like

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<v Speaker 4>Steve Bannon and Carlson and Joe Rogan and Aaron Rodgers,

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<v Speaker 4>all of them have denounced him in pretty like personal

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<v Speaker 4>terms over the years. So almost anytime he says anything,

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<v Speaker 4>he faces some degree of sort of outrage, harassment, pushback,

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<v Speaker 4>what have you. But talking specifically about these new threats

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<v Speaker 4>that the next Trump administration is going to face also

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<v Speaker 4>ran into this other thing, which is that the broader

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<v Speaker 4>kind of conspiracy community has been warning that, you know,

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<v Speaker 4>the deep spit, deep state or other dark forces are

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<v Speaker 4>going to try to interfere with Trump's presidency, you know,

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<v Speaker 4>and somehow set him up for failure, which it's worth

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<v Speaker 4>noting they also said this last time before he took office,

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<v Speaker 4>Like Alex Jones said before Trump took office the first time,

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<v Speaker 4>you know, they're not going to let him take office,

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<v Speaker 4>And so there's a lot of that now. This just

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<v Speaker 4>sort of created a kind of perfect storm situation where

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<v Speaker 4>the folks are trying to tell their audiences that Trump

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<v Speaker 4>is already under threat, right and running up against something

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<v Speaker 4>that is real and true, which is there are probably

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<v Speaker 4>going to be some pretty serious disease outbreaks in the

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<v Speaker 4>next couple of years. In California, today declared a state

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<v Speaker 4>of emergency over the Avian flu outbreak, we're seeing new

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<v Speaker 4>cases in human beings, which is pretty scary.

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<v Speaker 6>You know.

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<v Speaker 4>We've seen a couple of disease outbreaks in Africa, specifically

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<v Speaker 4>in Congo. There's a really devastating measles outbreak and also

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<v Speaker 4>an outbreak of novel disease that they're not sure what

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<v Speaker 4>it is yet, right, and then COVID is always a threat.

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<v Speaker 4>We're seeing COVID cases starting to tick back up. So

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<v Speaker 4>by warning that there's going to be a quote unquote plandemic,

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<v Speaker 4>like by implying that doctor Hotez or some other people

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<v Speaker 4>are going to cause the next pandemic, it acknowledges that

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<v Speaker 4>it's going to happen, and then it's real. But it

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<v Speaker 4>puts the blame onto a more politically useful group of actors.

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<v Speaker 1>Yeah, because it's much better if they can get mad

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<v Speaker 1>at the left than the right, is what you're saying.

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<v Speaker 4>Well, and if it's a conspiracy, right, if it's not

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<v Speaker 4>just like the outbreak of infectious disease has been happening

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<v Speaker 4>for years, it's better if it has a person behind

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<v Speaker 4>it to blame, preferably somebody who can be depicted as

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<v Speaker 4>sort of like an opponent of Donald Trump. So you know,

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<v Speaker 4>I'm seeing like Mickey willis sharing these ideas. Who's the

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<v Speaker 4>filmmaker who produced pandemic right of course, you know, which

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<v Speaker 4>implied that COVID nineteen was sort of deliberately created and

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<v Speaker 4>unleashed several pretty well known kind of anti vac seating

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<v Speaker 4>figures conspiratorial news sites like info wars and natural News.

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<v Speaker 4>So this one got a pretty wide amount of pickup

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<v Speaker 4>because it was useful for so many different people.

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<v Speaker 5>Yeah, I would love you to talk about it.

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<v Speaker 1>How a lot of these conspiracies are actually used by

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<v Speaker 1>people on the right to push a narrative.

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<v Speaker 5>Can you talk a little more about them.

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<v Speaker 4>The common thread with a lot of these is that

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<v Speaker 4>they create someone to blame, right, They create a sense

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<v Speaker 4>of a group of evil doers, like working in secret

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<v Speaker 4>against the common good, you know, kind of classic conspiracy stuff.

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<v Speaker 4>And so folding in new disease outbreaks into that is useful,

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<v Speaker 4>It's helpful. It creates a common energy, someone to blame,

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<v Speaker 4>someone to get mad at. And as we saw with

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<v Speaker 4>for instance, QAnon, you know, the basis of the qnon

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<v Speaker 4>conspiracy theory was that Donald Trump was doing a really

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<v Speaker 4>good job, but that a group of evil doers were

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<v Speaker 4>working against him and we're undermining him. So this idea

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<v Speaker 4>of a deep state or a sinister group of scientists

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<v Speaker 4>or some other kind of group of villains thwarting what

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<v Speaker 4>Donald Trump is trying to do is a useful idea if,

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<v Speaker 4>for instance, Donald Trump is having trouble getting things done.

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<v Speaker 1>So it's sort of way to give him an out

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<v Speaker 1>if he can't do some of the things he might

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<v Speaker 1>want to do.

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<v Speaker 4>Yeah, just sort of like preemptively create a set of

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<v Speaker 4>let's say too, yeah, a set of villains, a set

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<v Speaker 4>of factors that could be used to create an out

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<v Speaker 4>or you know, an alternate explanation for anything that does

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<v Speaker 4>not happen during the next Rump administration. Because he's making

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<v Speaker 4>really big promises, and so are people who are going

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<v Speaker 4>to be in administration.

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<v Speaker 1>Broad expensive, hard to maneuver promises totally.

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<v Speaker 4>You know, I mean, when you say that you're going

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<v Speaker 4>to solve all of these issues on day one, whether

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<v Speaker 4>it is the war in Ukraine, the war in Gaza.

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<v Speaker 4>You know, if you're Robert F. Kennedy Junior and you're

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<v Speaker 4>claiming that you're going to end ill.

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<v Speaker 5>Health, whatever that means, it's pretty vague.

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<v Speaker 4>Yeah, but yeah, I mean, these are incredibly broad claims,

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<v Speaker 4>and if you can't get them done, then it would

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<v Speaker 4>be great to be able to blame someone in advance.

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<v Speaker 1>So let's just for another minute talk about why I'm

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<v Speaker 1>wondering if you could explain to us sort of one

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<v Speaker 1>of the things that I've.

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<v Speaker 5>Been destruck by when we talk about our Cage Junior.

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<v Speaker 1>Part of K Junior actually brought a group into MAGA world.

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<v Speaker 5>They are really the other side of the horseshoe in

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<v Speaker 5>a lot of ways. I'm hoping you could talk.

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<v Speaker 1>About sort of who RFK Junior's people are and why

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<v Speaker 1>they exist.

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<v Speaker 3>Right.

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<v Speaker 4>First of all, I should plug Conspiratuality, the podcasts that

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<v Speaker 4>talks about the kind of incursion of right and far

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<v Speaker 4>right beliefs into the New Age health and wellness world

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<v Speaker 4>if you're curious about this, because they've done really great

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<v Speaker 4>work over the years talking about the ways that these

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<v Speaker 4>different characters kind of appear and join forces. But you know,

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<v Speaker 4>the first thing that Kennedy was in his adult life

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<v Speaker 4>was an environmental lawyer, and the second thing was an

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<v Speaker 4>anti vaccine activist. He's claimed that he got involved in

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<v Speaker 4>the vaccine issue in like two thousand and five because

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<v Speaker 4>you know, concerned mother came to him. But he has

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<v Speaker 4>created a really outsized public image in the anti vaccine

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<v Speaker 4>world as a crusader for their health right and has

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<v Speaker 4>like a real intense fandom in the anti vaccine world,

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<v Speaker 4>especially among mothers who believe that their children were harmed

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<v Speaker 4>by vaccines. And because he's built this incredibly like adoring

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<v Speaker 4>fan base, a lot of them were just automatically like

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<v Speaker 4>willing to follow him when he began this kind of

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<v Speaker 4>presidential run in this political career, willing to advocate for

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<v Speaker 4>his campaign. And then when his campaign started to founder

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<v Speaker 4>and he decided to suspend it and endorse Donald Trump,

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<v Speaker 4>he made what was a pretty canny sort of marketing

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<v Speaker 4>decision and started promoting this idea of the make America

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<v Speaker 4>Healthy Again movement in Maha, and Maha was meant to

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<v Speaker 4>be a way to kind of unite the concerns of

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<v Speaker 4>Trump voters and sort of Kennedy fans under one umbrella.

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<v Speaker 4>And it's not always like the most comfortable relationship, you know,

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<v Speaker 4>Like Kennedy is obviously a pretty big proponent of what

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<v Speaker 4>he considers to be healthy foods. There was that viral

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<v Speaker 4>image of him sitting uncomfortably at a table with Donald

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<v Speaker 4>Trump and some other people, you know, with McDonald's in

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<v Speaker 4>front of him, looking uncomfortable.

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<v Speaker 1>It.

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<v Speaker 4>You know, it's not always like the most natural kind

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<v Speaker 4>of marriage between these two sides, but they do share

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<v Speaker 4>some things in common, chiefly the sense that the government

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<v Speaker 4>regulates too much, especially around food safety.

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<v Speaker 1>Right, which is ironic because part of the problem here

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<v Speaker 1>when you think about like microplastics, the kind of thing

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<v Speaker 1>wouldn't that be a lack of government regulation.

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<v Speaker 4>Yeah, I mean, so this is interesting because both the

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<v Speaker 4>Maha people and the more died in the wole Trump

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<v Speaker 4>people do share this sense of government overreach and this

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<v Speaker 4>idea that, yeah, that the government is doing too much

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<v Speaker 4>and regulates too much around food and around medication. But yeah,

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<v Speaker 4>when we talk about a lot of the goals that

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<v Speaker 4>Kennedy wants to achieve, they are more about better and

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<v Speaker 4>further regulation of food safety. I mean, he also sort

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<v Speaker 4>of falsely claims that vaccines are unsafe, that they are

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<v Speaker 4>not tested, that they are not regulated in a way

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<v Speaker 4>that other drugs are, none of which is true. But again,

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<v Speaker 4>like to me, that sounds like he's making an argument

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<v Speaker 4>for more government oversight, not less right, but you know,

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<v Speaker 4>as the nominee for the head of AHHS, you know,

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<v Speaker 4>it seems like a lot of what he's talking about

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<v Speaker 4>is cutting funding and regulation and sort of like taking

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<v Speaker 4>away funding, especially from agencies that he considers to be corrupt,

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<v Speaker 4>like the NIH and the CDC.

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<v Speaker 5>So that's where raw milk comes into it. Can you

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<v Speaker 5>talk about raw milk?

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<v Speaker 4>Yeah, specifically raw milk. Where it relates to Kennedy is

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<v Speaker 4>he did this kind of viral tweet a while ago

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<v Speaker 4>where he was talking about all of the things that

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<v Speaker 4>he wants to reduce oversight of or you know, enforcement

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<v Speaker 4>actions against when he's the head of the AHHS. In October,

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<v Speaker 4>he had this kind of viral tweet where he said,

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<v Speaker 4>you know, the Fday's war on public health is about

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<v Speaker 4>to end. This includes its aggressive suppression of psychedelics, peptides,

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<v Speaker 4>stem cells, raw milk, hyperbaric therapies, kulating compound, impromectin, hydroxy clark,

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<v Speaker 4>when vitamins, clean food, sunshine, exercise, nutriceuticals, and anything else

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<v Speaker 4>that advances human health and can't be patented by pharma. Right,

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<v Speaker 4>and he's been super critical.

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<v Speaker 5>Of the war on sunshine.

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<v Speaker 4>Yeah, of course, right, But yeah, he's been super critical

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<v Speaker 4>of the FDA, and the USDA is sort of enforcement

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<v Speaker 4>actions against raw milk distributors when they are either taking

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<v Speaker 4>stuff across state lines or when you know, testing reveals

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<v Speaker 4>the presence of a flu, as it has recently. So yeah,

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<v Speaker 4>he's made it pretty clear that he considers raw milk

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<v Speaker 4>to be a health food that is inappropriately suppressed by

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<v Speaker 4>the federal government.

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<v Speaker 1>So interesting. Yeah, the war on sunlight is a real one.

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<v Speaker 1>So it's funny because this is so stupid. But then

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<v Speaker 1>also there's a certain like can you make the raw

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<v Speaker 1>milk and the ball of Arena farm stuff makes sense

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<v Speaker 1>for us. I think you have to explain Ballerina Farm

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<v Speaker 1>for the few, the few lucky people who don't know what.

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<v Speaker 4>This is, right, So, Vallerina Farm is a woman in

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<v Speaker 4>whose real name is Hannah Neilman. Basically, she's a social

0:12:10.320 --> 0:12:13.440
<v Speaker 4>media influencer. She's often referred to as a tradwife, though

0:12:13.480 --> 0:12:17.360
<v Speaker 4>I think she denies that, like she doesn't identify with

0:12:17.400 --> 0:12:21.239
<v Speaker 4>that designation. She is a woman who with her husband,

0:12:21.600 --> 0:12:26.920
<v Speaker 4>owns a farm in Utah and sells meat and sells

0:12:26.960 --> 0:12:30.200
<v Speaker 4>sourdos starter and kind of cultivates a what to me

0:12:30.280 --> 0:12:32.880
<v Speaker 4>seems like a tradwive aesthetic on social media, where she

0:12:32.960 --> 0:12:35.480
<v Speaker 4>has like a million, Oh, I'm sorry, she has ten

0:12:35.480 --> 0:12:38.600
<v Speaker 4>million Instagram followers and nine million on TikTok.

0:12:38.720 --> 0:12:39.480
<v Speaker 5>I actually don't know what.

0:12:39.480 --> 0:12:41.720
<v Speaker 4>Her stance is specifically on raw Milk, but I would

0:12:41.760 --> 0:12:45.880
<v Speaker 4>say that the tradwives, like some of the Raw Milk influencers,

0:12:45.920 --> 0:12:50.600
<v Speaker 4>sort of present themselves as advocating for an older, healthier,

0:12:50.840 --> 0:12:54.520
<v Speaker 4>more sort of a nostalgic view of health and wellness

0:12:54.800 --> 0:12:57.960
<v Speaker 4>that harkens back to an earlier and better and more

0:12:57.960 --> 0:13:00.120
<v Speaker 4>innocent time basically.

0:13:00.120 --> 0:13:02.720
<v Speaker 5>For the modern life.

0:13:02.800 --> 0:13:06.400
<v Speaker 1>I mean, the idea is that somehow modernity has ruined

0:13:06.440 --> 0:13:07.400
<v Speaker 1>American life.

0:13:07.800 --> 0:13:10.319
<v Speaker 4>Yeah, and we see that right in all kinds of

0:13:10.320 --> 0:13:14.199
<v Speaker 4>different areas, whether it is masculinity influencers talking about feminism

0:13:14.240 --> 0:13:17.160
<v Speaker 4>as the corrosive force, whether it's tribal wives also talking

0:13:17.200 --> 0:13:20.480
<v Speaker 4>about feminism as a corrosive force, whether it is mister

0:13:20.559 --> 0:13:24.000
<v Speaker 4>Kennedy saying that, you know, US health and safety agencies

0:13:24.040 --> 0:13:28.600
<v Speaker 4>are sort of inappropriately regulating things that we're seen as

0:13:28.600 --> 0:13:31.319
<v Speaker 4>healthy in previous eras, though of course that's not true

0:13:31.440 --> 0:13:34.680
<v Speaker 4>for things like hyperberic occiden chambers or chelating compounds. We've

0:13:34.720 --> 0:13:37.120
<v Speaker 4>been pasteurizing milk for a really long time because we

0:13:37.240 --> 0:13:40.760
<v Speaker 4>learned that it makes it much more difficult to get

0:13:40.960 --> 0:13:43.960
<v Speaker 4>things like tuberculosis listeriosis.

0:13:43.960 --> 0:13:47.080
<v Speaker 1>Like, yeah, yes, we have really ended up through the

0:13:47.480 --> 0:13:48.240
<v Speaker 1>rabbit hole here.

0:13:48.640 --> 0:13:51.160
<v Speaker 5>I'd love you to talk just for two seconds about

0:13:51.200 --> 0:13:52.680
<v Speaker 5>the polio vaccine.

0:13:52.840 --> 0:13:54.920
<v Speaker 4>So basically, there's a story in The New York Times

0:13:54.920 --> 0:13:57.600
<v Speaker 4>this week about how an attorney named Arion Siri, who's

0:13:57.600 --> 0:13:59.760
<v Speaker 4>a big player in the anti vaccine movement and who's

0:13:59.840 --> 0:14:02.360
<v Speaker 4>kind of linked to mister Kennedy and some other big

0:14:02.520 --> 0:14:05.439
<v Speaker 4>anti vaccine players like Dell big Tree, he filed a

0:14:05.480 --> 0:14:09.960
<v Speaker 4>petition for the government to revoke its approval of one

0:14:10.000 --> 0:14:13.040
<v Speaker 4>of the polio vaccines that is currently used in the

0:14:13.120 --> 0:14:17.680
<v Speaker 4>United States. He's also filed petitions seeking to pause the

0:14:17.679 --> 0:14:22.880
<v Speaker 4>distribution of other vaccines, including COVID vaccines. So this is

0:14:22.920 --> 0:14:26.280
<v Speaker 4>the long shot. Currently, this is not something that the

0:14:26.320 --> 0:14:30.400
<v Speaker 4>federal government would do, especially not for the specific polio

0:14:30.480 --> 0:14:32.120
<v Speaker 4>vaccine that was used in the United States. So it

0:14:32.160 --> 0:14:34.720
<v Speaker 4>is just widely considered to be extremely safe, very effective.

0:14:34.960 --> 0:14:38.240
<v Speaker 4>It is incredibly rare for children or adults in the

0:14:38.320 --> 0:14:41.840
<v Speaker 4>US to get polio anymore, which it didn't used to be. Basically,

0:14:41.840 --> 0:14:45.520
<v Speaker 4>Aaron Siri represents a group called I CAN, which is

0:14:45.760 --> 0:14:48.160
<v Speaker 4>owned by Dell Big Trees and anti vaccine Actiputs who

0:14:48.120 --> 0:14:51.200
<v Speaker 4>worked for Robert F. Kennedy Junior's campaign, and these petitions

0:14:51.240 --> 0:14:54.680
<v Speaker 4>to revoke authorization of these certain vaccines are being put

0:14:54.720 --> 0:14:58.880
<v Speaker 4>out by I CAN. So basically, right now, the idea

0:14:58.920 --> 0:15:01.160
<v Speaker 4>that the FDA would read petitions and be like, yeah,

0:15:01.200 --> 0:15:04.360
<v Speaker 4>we should do that is incredibly far fetched. With Robert F.

0:15:04.440 --> 0:15:08.520
<v Speaker 4>Kennedy Junior over AHHS, which is over the FDA, maybe

0:15:08.520 --> 0:15:11.840
<v Speaker 4>that would change. So it's more kind of about at

0:15:11.840 --> 0:15:16.160
<v Speaker 4>this point signaling what the priorities are for allies of

0:15:16.320 --> 0:15:20.280
<v Speaker 4>mister Kennedy if he is confirmed and sworn in as

0:15:20.320 --> 0:15:21.400
<v Speaker 4>head of AHHS.

0:15:21.640 --> 0:15:26.640
<v Speaker 1>This is such completely insane I should laugh. I laugh

0:15:26.720 --> 0:15:30.440
<v Speaker 1>to keep from crying. Thank you, thank you, thank you,

0:15:30.840 --> 0:15:31.880
<v Speaker 1>thank you for coming on.

0:15:32.320 --> 0:15:33.400
<v Speaker 4>Yeah, thank you for having me.

0:15:37.840 --> 0:15:40.440
<v Speaker 2>Daniel Lakatian is the editor of Bolt's bagazine.

0:15:40.680 --> 0:15:45.960
<v Speaker 1>Welcome back to Fast Politics, Daniel, talk us through state legislatures,

0:15:46.040 --> 0:15:46.920
<v Speaker 1>what's going on?

0:15:47.160 --> 0:15:51.000
<v Speaker 5>Talk us through elections? You're my election guy, among others.

0:15:51.440 --> 0:15:52.880
<v Speaker 6>Well, thanks for having me again.

0:15:52.960 --> 0:15:55.440
<v Speaker 3>It's yeah, a lot has changed since since I last

0:15:55.560 --> 0:15:56.160
<v Speaker 3>talked to you.

0:15:56.360 --> 0:15:57.680
<v Speaker 6>Quich probably was before the election.

0:15:58.080 --> 0:16:00.960
<v Speaker 3>We had bolts where I work reading low closely at

0:16:01.000 --> 0:16:03.480
<v Speaker 3>the state level, at the county level, which you know,

0:16:03.480 --> 0:16:06.720
<v Speaker 3>it doesn't get as much attention as obviously the federal elections.

0:16:06.960 --> 0:16:09.920
<v Speaker 3>Very understandable reasons, but when it comes to you know,

0:16:09.920 --> 0:16:11.600
<v Speaker 3>when it comes to a lot of things that people

0:16:11.720 --> 0:16:16.040
<v Speaker 3>really care about, including emotion rights, including civil rights, really

0:16:16.040 --> 0:16:17.280
<v Speaker 3>thinks that are going to be at the center of

0:16:17.320 --> 0:16:20.600
<v Speaker 3>the next two to four years. States are everything, especially

0:16:20.640 --> 0:16:23.920
<v Speaker 3>if you're a progressive, trying to find places where there

0:16:23.960 --> 0:16:28.320
<v Speaker 3>could be pushback, you know, cases where whether legal or political,

0:16:28.320 --> 0:16:30.160
<v Speaker 3>that's really word to look. And so a lot of

0:16:30.200 --> 0:16:32.800
<v Speaker 3>what we've done is look at state houses, state senates

0:16:33.040 --> 0:16:36.080
<v Speaker 3>and also state Supreme Court. So to just start with

0:16:36.360 --> 0:16:39.080
<v Speaker 3>state senates and state houses. You know what I did

0:16:39.080 --> 0:16:41.040
<v Speaker 3>in the in the past few weeks is quite is

0:16:41.160 --> 0:16:45.680
<v Speaker 3>just go state by state. Look in every state, how

0:16:45.760 --> 0:16:50.240
<v Speaker 3>did the composition of state chambers change, And that's really

0:16:50.400 --> 0:16:53.000
<v Speaker 3>going to determine what yours have opened and closed in

0:16:53.040 --> 0:16:53.520
<v Speaker 3>the next year.

0:16:53.840 --> 0:16:56.000
<v Speaker 1>I want to pause for a minute and just for

0:16:56.080 --> 0:17:00.760
<v Speaker 1>our listeners explain. You know, we're all feeling pretty moralized

0:17:01.560 --> 0:17:07.880
<v Speaker 1>and these state legislatures are a way to take power back.

0:17:08.040 --> 0:17:13.240
<v Speaker 1>They're not expensive. They are happening, you know, on off cycles.

0:17:13.720 --> 0:17:17.080
<v Speaker 1>So and these off yr elections are ones where low

0:17:17.160 --> 0:17:21.240
<v Speaker 1>turnout rules and a little money can make a big difference.

0:17:21.440 --> 0:17:25.120
<v Speaker 1>So anyways, start talking to me about these state legislators.

0:17:25.320 --> 0:17:25.560
<v Speaker 6>Yeah.

0:17:25.720 --> 0:17:25.800
<v Speaker 1>No.

0:17:26.000 --> 0:17:29.200
<v Speaker 3>So the first sort of big number that I thought

0:17:29.240 --> 0:17:32.439
<v Speaker 3>was interesting is I quite literally look at the swing

0:17:32.640 --> 0:17:36.200
<v Speaker 3>of state seats if you take into account all the

0:17:36.920 --> 0:17:39.000
<v Speaker 3>races across the country, which obviously is a bit of

0:17:39.000 --> 0:17:41.680
<v Speaker 3>a silly exercise because there isn't ever an institution where

0:17:41.680 --> 0:17:45.399
<v Speaker 3>every state lawmaker from Alaska to Florida gets in the room, right,

0:17:45.600 --> 0:17:49.880
<v Speaker 3>But there were rough six thousand elections happening for state

0:17:49.960 --> 0:17:52.880
<v Speaker 3>lawmaker around the country, and out of this six thousand,

0:17:53.400 --> 0:17:57.560
<v Speaker 3>the GOP gained fifty seven seats. That's a small number,

0:17:57.640 --> 0:18:00.320
<v Speaker 3>I mean, obviously, you know, it suggests that the UOPE

0:18:00.440 --> 0:18:02.840
<v Speaker 3>had the better nights, and if you look at the detail,

0:18:02.880 --> 0:18:04.719
<v Speaker 3>which we could do in a second, they had some

0:18:04.840 --> 0:18:07.520
<v Speaker 3>big wins, but if you look at the overall composition,

0:18:07.920 --> 0:18:11.000
<v Speaker 3>it was quite small given the extent of the shift.

0:18:11.040 --> 0:18:14.240
<v Speaker 3>Obviously in the presidential election. So this is another instance

0:18:14.440 --> 0:18:18.520
<v Speaker 3>like in the US House, where the coattails of Trump

0:18:18.640 --> 0:18:22.119
<v Speaker 3>were were much smaller than one might expect, and Democrats

0:18:22.160 --> 0:18:25.840
<v Speaker 3>clearly got a lot of bright spots as well. Republicans

0:18:25.960 --> 0:18:28.720
<v Speaker 3>gained seats in twenty states and Democrats gained seats in

0:18:28.760 --> 0:18:31.840
<v Speaker 3>eleven states. Again, the GOP had the better night, but

0:18:31.920 --> 0:18:34.680
<v Speaker 3>we do see in a bunch of states where Democrats

0:18:34.680 --> 0:18:37.119
<v Speaker 3>are the ones who gained seats and are in a

0:18:37.160 --> 0:18:38.680
<v Speaker 3>better spot going into twenty twenty five.

0:18:39.040 --> 0:18:41.440
<v Speaker 5>So let's talk about those states.

0:18:41.720 --> 0:18:44.720
<v Speaker 3>Yeah, yeah, So let's talk of the two most interesting

0:18:45.160 --> 0:18:50.880
<v Speaker 3>spots because in Wisconsin and Montana. Wisconsin and Montana had

0:18:50.920 --> 0:18:53.920
<v Speaker 3>new maps this year for the first time, and they

0:18:53.920 --> 0:18:56.760
<v Speaker 3>were more equitable maps than the ones that they were

0:18:56.800 --> 0:18:59.960
<v Speaker 3>using in twenty twenty twenty. In Wisconsin is probably the

0:19:00.119 --> 0:19:01.800
<v Speaker 3>one that a lot of people who are who might

0:19:01.880 --> 0:19:04.159
<v Speaker 3>listen to this have heard about, because there was a

0:19:04.320 --> 0:19:08.960
<v Speaker 3>huge court fight in Wisconsin around the gerrymanders that Republican

0:19:09.040 --> 0:19:11.920
<v Speaker 3>tasked in the early twenty tens and early twenty twenties

0:19:11.960 --> 0:19:15.120
<v Speaker 3>to re locked in their majorities in the state House

0:19:15.160 --> 0:19:17.240
<v Speaker 3>and the state Senate. And it took I mean, it

0:19:17.320 --> 0:19:21.359
<v Speaker 3>was a very expensive election for the state Supreme Court

0:19:21.400 --> 0:19:23.639
<v Speaker 3>in twenty twenty three got a lot of attention in

0:19:23.680 --> 0:19:25.480
<v Speaker 3>April twenty three, which is just a year and a

0:19:25.480 --> 0:19:29.399
<v Speaker 3>half to go, and the candidates supported by Democrats there

0:19:29.760 --> 0:19:32.199
<v Speaker 3>won and flipped the Court to the left for the

0:19:32.240 --> 0:19:35.040
<v Speaker 3>first time in a long time. And then the Court

0:19:35.359 --> 0:19:39.040
<v Speaker 3>shruck down the GOP gerrymanders that was a year ago,

0:19:39.119 --> 0:19:42.080
<v Speaker 3>and the new map was created and lo and behold

0:19:42.160 --> 0:19:44.800
<v Speaker 3>that that the map created a lot of change, as

0:19:44.840 --> 0:19:47.600
<v Speaker 3>you would expect, because we went from a very aggressive

0:19:47.680 --> 0:19:51.600
<v Speaker 3>up jeromander to a fair map. And over in the state,

0:19:52.320 --> 0:19:56.480
<v Speaker 3>Democrats gained fourteen seats in Wisconsin, so that's the biggest

0:19:56.480 --> 0:19:59.679
<v Speaker 3>gain they made anywhere in the country. Republicans kept their

0:20:00.000 --> 0:20:04.520
<v Speaker 3>majority in both chambers, but they're small majorities compared to

0:20:04.680 --> 0:20:08.520
<v Speaker 3>the quasi supermajorities they had, and it sets Democrats up

0:20:08.600 --> 0:20:11.280
<v Speaker 3>very well for twenty twenty six for trying to flip

0:20:11.320 --> 0:20:14.080
<v Speaker 3>control of Wisconsin for the first time in a long time.

0:20:14.359 --> 0:20:17.639
<v Speaker 3>And there's a somewhat similar story in Montana, which is

0:20:17.720 --> 0:20:20.600
<v Speaker 3>quite interesting because the defeat of John Tester in the

0:20:20.680 --> 0:20:23.199
<v Speaker 3>race for the US Senate was a huge story. Obviously,

0:20:23.200 --> 0:20:27.920
<v Speaker 3>on election night at the state level, Democrats gained twelve

0:20:28.000 --> 0:20:33.359
<v Speaker 3>seats across both chambers and up's supermajorities, which is actually

0:20:33.480 --> 0:20:36.919
<v Speaker 3>quite important because the GOP was hoping to use its

0:20:36.960 --> 0:20:41.080
<v Speaker 3>supermajorities to put constitutional amendments on the ballots on party

0:20:41.119 --> 0:20:41.679
<v Speaker 3>line votes.

0:20:41.880 --> 0:20:47.200
<v Speaker 1>Basically, they somehow flipped the Senate seed but lost the

0:20:47.240 --> 0:20:48.280
<v Speaker 1>majority in the House.

0:20:48.720 --> 0:20:52.200
<v Speaker 6>No, they did not lose the majority. Germany ten seats

0:20:52.240 --> 0:20:56.320
<v Speaker 6>in the state House, and that seems like a lot

0:20:56.880 --> 0:20:57.760
<v Speaker 6>that it's a big change.

0:20:57.800 --> 0:21:00.840
<v Speaker 3>Again, it's it has to do with the districting fighter

0:21:00.880 --> 0:21:03.480
<v Speaker 3>that was describing earlier, but the one that didn't come randomly.

0:21:03.520 --> 0:21:06.399
<v Speaker 3>There was a whole fight and another point of contact Smalledgy.

0:21:06.480 --> 0:21:08.880
<v Speaker 3>To just show you the depth of how everything is related.

0:21:09.160 --> 0:21:11.920
<v Speaker 3>There were elections for the state court in the state

0:21:11.920 --> 0:21:15.359
<v Speaker 3>of Montana, and Montana might be a very unusual state

0:21:15.760 --> 0:21:17.479
<v Speaker 3>in for a red state, in that it has a

0:21:17.520 --> 0:21:20.359
<v Speaker 3>state court, the state High Court the Supreme Court that

0:21:20.520 --> 0:21:24.399
<v Speaker 3>leans to the left and has repeatedly struck down GOP

0:21:24.640 --> 0:21:27.880
<v Speaker 3>bills in the last few years, including a restriction on abortion,

0:21:28.400 --> 0:21:32.560
<v Speaker 3>including restrictions on voting access, and conservatives were hoping to

0:21:32.640 --> 0:21:35.400
<v Speaker 3>really change that left lean of the.

0:21:35.359 --> 0:21:36.760
<v Speaker 6>Court and that didn't succeed.

0:21:36.880 --> 0:21:40.440
<v Speaker 3>Actually, there was a key race there that the Democratic

0:21:40.440 --> 0:21:43.280
<v Speaker 3>affiliated candidate won, So there is still going to be

0:21:43.359 --> 0:21:46.320
<v Speaker 3>this bucket of resistance in the state government, which is

0:21:46.440 --> 0:21:49.679
<v Speaker 3>going to be the state Court, and therefore that's why

0:21:49.800 --> 0:21:53.080
<v Speaker 3>the GOPS lost to the super majority there is important

0:21:53.119 --> 0:21:54.720
<v Speaker 3>because they're not going to be able to go around

0:21:54.800 --> 0:21:57.600
<v Speaker 3>the court and just put stuff on the ballot at well.

0:21:57.720 --> 0:22:01.200
<v Speaker 3>So that's going to be very interesting situation in coming years.

0:22:01.359 --> 0:22:04.800
<v Speaker 1>Yeah, that is very interesting, all right, So talk to

0:22:04.840 --> 0:22:09.240
<v Speaker 1>me about other state launche stuff. So the bright spots

0:22:09.320 --> 0:22:10.720
<v Speaker 1>Montana and what else.

0:22:11.000 --> 0:22:13.440
<v Speaker 3>Wisconsin one of the two biggest ones. So there are

0:22:13.600 --> 0:22:16.800
<v Speaker 3>others where Democrats gained seats, but the GOP also had

0:22:16.960 --> 0:22:19.280
<v Speaker 3>just to be clear of very bright spots. The two

0:22:19.960 --> 0:22:24.639
<v Speaker 3>main stories to just highlight are that the GOP erased

0:22:24.760 --> 0:22:27.919
<v Speaker 3>the majorities that Democrats had for the past couple of

0:22:27.960 --> 0:22:31.879
<v Speaker 3>years in the House in Michigan and the Minnesota House.

0:22:32.119 --> 0:22:34.879
<v Speaker 3>And in both cases, Democrats had just won control the

0:22:34.920 --> 0:22:37.920
<v Speaker 3>full government in twenty twenty two, which you might remember

0:22:37.920 --> 0:22:40.160
<v Speaker 3>as a huge story because no one expected Democrats to

0:22:40.160 --> 0:22:44.040
<v Speaker 3>to gain power during the mid term, and the GOP

0:22:44.600 --> 0:22:47.520
<v Speaker 3>gained just enough seats in both states to erase Democratic

0:22:47.600 --> 0:22:50.000
<v Speaker 3>majorities in the House. That doesn't mean that the Republicans

0:22:50.040 --> 0:22:52.920
<v Speaker 3>have control the state government because Democrats have in both

0:22:52.920 --> 0:22:57.160
<v Speaker 3>states the governorship and the state Senate. But it does stop, obviously,

0:22:57.200 --> 0:23:00.800
<v Speaker 3>the ability of Democrats to pass laws at will with

0:23:00.880 --> 0:23:03.679
<v Speaker 3>their own votes. In Michigan and Minnesota, those are states

0:23:03.680 --> 0:23:05.960
<v Speaker 3>that they used to do. They did a lot of

0:23:05.960 --> 0:23:07.520
<v Speaker 3>stuff in the last couple of years, a lot of

0:23:07.600 --> 0:23:11.359
<v Speaker 3>which made headlines. Just as an example, you know the

0:23:11.400 --> 0:23:15.280
<v Speaker 3>free lunches and schools that Governor Waltz signed. Governor Walts

0:23:15.400 --> 0:23:18.320
<v Speaker 3>also signed a voting rights Act at the state level.

0:23:18.680 --> 0:23:21.200
<v Speaker 3>So all of those sort of policies were done because

0:23:21.240 --> 0:23:24.000
<v Speaker 3>of the trafficta Democrats had. So those are the main

0:23:24.040 --> 0:23:26.639
<v Speaker 3>spot and then the other one I will name is

0:23:26.680 --> 0:23:30.880
<v Speaker 3>that in New England Republicans did. They gained in three states,

0:23:31.080 --> 0:23:34.200
<v Speaker 3>especially the state of Vermont, the state of Vermont, where

0:23:34.400 --> 0:23:37.720
<v Speaker 3>Republicans gained twenty five seats in the state House and

0:23:37.760 --> 0:23:41.240
<v Speaker 3>state Senate in Vermont and broke the supermajorities Democrats had.

0:23:41.359 --> 0:23:43.840
<v Speaker 3>The governor there is a Republican so that's going to

0:23:43.920 --> 0:23:46.240
<v Speaker 3>really tie the hands of Democrats to be able to

0:23:46.280 --> 0:23:47.119
<v Speaker 3>override the veto's.

0:23:47.160 --> 0:23:48.280
<v Speaker 6>The republican governor there.

0:23:48.600 --> 0:23:52.720
<v Speaker 1>Let's talk about what the calendar looks like, now, what's

0:23:52.760 --> 0:23:53.280
<v Speaker 1>coming up?

0:23:53.480 --> 0:23:53.800
<v Speaker 6>First?

0:23:53.960 --> 0:23:56.760
<v Speaker 1>I have this theory that I want you to either

0:23:56.880 --> 0:23:58.360
<v Speaker 1>tell me is wrong or right.

0:23:58.560 --> 0:24:01.480
<v Speaker 5>Okay, So I have this theory that the way.

0:24:01.320 --> 0:24:06.280
<v Speaker 1>This election went wasn't actually Republican Democrat brand, that it

0:24:06.400 --> 0:24:10.960
<v Speaker 1>was Trump then Democrats than Republicans. And so one of

0:24:10.960 --> 0:24:13.720
<v Speaker 1>the phenomenons I saw when I looked at some of

0:24:13.720 --> 0:24:16.439
<v Speaker 1>these numbers from swing states was that you had states

0:24:16.440 --> 0:24:19.719
<v Speaker 1>where Trump got over fifty percent of the vote, then

0:24:20.119 --> 0:24:23.400
<v Speaker 1>they must have left the ticket blank. And I'm wondering

0:24:23.440 --> 0:24:26.439
<v Speaker 1>if you can talk about that phenomenon as it like,

0:24:26.520 --> 0:24:29.240
<v Speaker 1>did you see when you look through the data, did

0:24:29.280 --> 0:24:31.920
<v Speaker 1>you see voters who were just Trump and no one

0:24:31.960 --> 0:24:32.760
<v Speaker 1>else voters?

0:24:33.280 --> 0:24:37.800
<v Speaker 3>That's a great question. I don't have numbers to share

0:24:37.880 --> 0:24:41.360
<v Speaker 3>on the undervote that you're asking about, but I think

0:24:41.359 --> 0:24:44.120
<v Speaker 3>there's evidence to suggest so, I mean, I think your

0:24:44.200 --> 0:24:46.560
<v Speaker 3>question gets to the very first thing I said, right,

0:24:46.600 --> 0:24:49.240
<v Speaker 3>which is that here I was just talking about Michigan

0:24:49.280 --> 0:24:52.159
<v Speaker 3>and Wisconsin, the states that saw a big swing one

0:24:52.200 --> 0:24:54.760
<v Speaker 3>way or the other, but in most of the country.

0:24:55.119 --> 0:24:57.920
<v Speaker 3>It's what the most startling thing as I literally went

0:24:58.000 --> 0:24:59.800
<v Speaker 3>state by state and not just state by state by

0:25:00.400 --> 0:25:03.399
<v Speaker 3>chamber by chamber. The most startling thing to me, that

0:25:03.560 --> 0:25:06.800
<v Speaker 3>the clear story that jumped out is that in so

0:25:06.960 --> 0:25:11.080
<v Speaker 3>many chambers the status quo was almost entirely intact, that

0:25:11.119 --> 0:25:15.040
<v Speaker 3>there was either no change at all or the most

0:25:15.240 --> 0:25:18.560
<v Speaker 3>minimal change. And I mean, I think the most striking

0:25:18.640 --> 0:25:22.840
<v Speaker 3>example is Pennsylvania, which maybe gets to what you're saying.

0:25:22.880 --> 0:25:27.359
<v Speaker 3>So let's just recap what happened in Pennsylvania. Obviously, Trump

0:25:27.400 --> 0:25:30.679
<v Speaker 3>won the state, flipping it on the presidential level. It

0:25:30.720 --> 0:25:35.399
<v Speaker 3>also flipped at the congressional level because Republicans ousted the

0:25:35.440 --> 0:25:38.359
<v Speaker 3>Democratic senator there, and they also gained seats in the

0:25:38.440 --> 0:25:40.879
<v Speaker 3>US House. Now let's go down one level, and this

0:25:41.000 --> 0:25:42.760
<v Speaker 3>is honestly one of the most I don't have a

0:25:42.800 --> 0:25:46.240
<v Speaker 3>particularly great explanation, but it's so startling. Not a single

0:25:46.520 --> 0:25:49.320
<v Speaker 3>seat changed hands in the state House. Out of two

0:25:49.359 --> 0:25:53.359
<v Speaker 3>hundred and three seats. Pennsylvania Democrats had a majority harder

0:25:53.359 --> 0:25:55.840
<v Speaker 3>than two to one hundred and one going into the election,

0:25:56.160 --> 0:25:57.720
<v Speaker 3>and they're going to have a majority harder than two

0:25:57.720 --> 0:26:02.240
<v Speaker 3>ton and one exiting the election. That is quite striking

0:26:02.520 --> 0:26:06.399
<v Speaker 3>given the given the shifts at the federal level that

0:26:06.520 --> 0:26:10.400
<v Speaker 3>did not translate when people were voting, and for their

0:26:10.440 --> 0:26:13.040
<v Speaker 3>state House, and we see this over and over again.

0:26:13.600 --> 0:26:15.600
<v Speaker 3>The number I came up with was that the twenty

0:26:15.640 --> 0:26:19.560
<v Speaker 3>eight chambers saw zero change after holding elections this year,

0:26:19.720 --> 0:26:22.480
<v Speaker 3>and a lot of others only saw a single seat shift.

0:26:22.840 --> 0:26:26.399
<v Speaker 3>That is a lot of stability underlying what you know.

0:26:26.480 --> 0:26:28.960
<v Speaker 3>Has often been covered as like a great night for

0:26:29.000 --> 0:26:32.320
<v Speaker 3>the GOP, a landslide for Trump, but etcetera, which the

0:26:32.400 --> 0:26:35.119
<v Speaker 3>numbers don't really support. Obviously the GOP had the better night,

0:26:35.160 --> 0:26:38.600
<v Speaker 3>there's no question. What I will say is Republicans have

0:26:38.680 --> 0:26:40.359
<v Speaker 3>a lot of reasons to be happy right out of

0:26:40.400 --> 0:26:42.120
<v Speaker 3>November fifth. So they're not going to ask each other

0:26:42.160 --> 0:26:44.720
<v Speaker 3>a lot of questions, which is understandable because.

0:26:44.520 --> 0:26:45.440
<v Speaker 6>They overall won.

0:26:45.640 --> 0:26:48.919
<v Speaker 3>But if you look at what they should ask themselves

0:26:49.359 --> 0:26:51.280
<v Speaker 3>how they weren't able to flip the state House in

0:26:51.320 --> 0:26:54.880
<v Speaker 3>Pennsylvania despite the state shifting to Trump. They should ask themselves,

0:26:55.200 --> 0:26:58.639
<v Speaker 3>right how Perry Lake lost by so much worse than

0:26:58.680 --> 0:27:01.920
<v Speaker 3>Trump in there on a Senate race. For a third

0:27:01.960 --> 0:27:04.879
<v Speaker 3>consecutive cycles, the GOP lost the Senate seat in Arizona,

0:27:05.280 --> 0:27:07.600
<v Speaker 3>and this time was an open race, with Trump winning

0:27:07.640 --> 0:27:09.600
<v Speaker 3>the state by six points, and yet they lost the

0:27:09.640 --> 0:27:11.879
<v Speaker 3>Senate race. There's a lot of questions for the GOP

0:27:12.040 --> 0:27:14.240
<v Speaker 3>to ask itself, and it's not going to ask itself

0:27:14.240 --> 0:27:15.080
<v Speaker 3>that because.

0:27:14.880 --> 0:27:16.520
<v Speaker 6>Take one the big one.

0:27:16.800 --> 0:27:21.159
<v Speaker 3>But there's a lot of different storylines if you dig right.

0:27:21.480 --> 0:27:22.400
<v Speaker 5>Yes, exactly.

0:27:22.440 --> 0:27:27.239
<v Speaker 1>And it is striking to me with Pennsylvania because you

0:27:27.320 --> 0:27:30.199
<v Speaker 1>must have had some people vote for Trump and then

0:27:30.200 --> 0:27:31.720
<v Speaker 1>Democrats on the bottom of the ticket.

0:27:31.800 --> 0:27:34.920
<v Speaker 3>Right, well, yes, no, of course, the question of whether

0:27:35.000 --> 0:27:38.640
<v Speaker 3>it was people splitting tickets or under voting is not

0:27:38.680 --> 0:27:41.120
<v Speaker 3>something I can speak to. But there definitely was ticket

0:27:41.160 --> 0:27:44.240
<v Speaker 3>splitting there, and there was a lot of obviously ticket

0:27:44.280 --> 0:27:46.919
<v Speaker 3>splitting in other states. I mean, just to name one

0:27:46.960 --> 0:27:51.800
<v Speaker 3>other state not overwhelm listeners, but North Carolina is a

0:27:51.840 --> 0:27:57.000
<v Speaker 3>great example where Democrats won the governor's race in the

0:27:57.040 --> 0:28:00.359
<v Speaker 3>midst of a giant scandal that engulfed the Republican But

0:28:00.400 --> 0:28:03.840
<v Speaker 3>they also want other state races. They won the AG

0:28:04.119 --> 0:28:08.200
<v Speaker 3>race by a surprising margin. They want other state level races.

0:28:08.240 --> 0:28:10.679
<v Speaker 3>They won by a very small margin a race for

0:28:10.720 --> 0:28:14.960
<v Speaker 3>the state Court, and they broke the GOP super majority

0:28:15.040 --> 0:28:17.840
<v Speaker 3>in the state House, which is going to prevent the

0:28:17.880 --> 0:28:21.600
<v Speaker 3>Republicans in twenty twenty five of overriding the vetos of

0:28:21.640 --> 0:28:24.000
<v Speaker 3>the incoming governor, and as you may have seen, the

0:28:24.000 --> 0:28:27.480
<v Speaker 3>Republican is not taking that very well. They're quite there

0:28:27.800 --> 0:28:31.240
<v Speaker 3>this week trying to ram through a bill that would

0:28:31.480 --> 0:28:34.840
<v Speaker 3>effectively gut some of the essential roles of the current

0:28:34.840 --> 0:28:38.680
<v Speaker 3>governor and transferred to Republican authority because they only have

0:28:39.040 --> 0:28:41.720
<v Speaker 3>a few weeks left of being able to use their

0:28:41.760 --> 0:28:43.720
<v Speaker 3>supermajorities and they're trying to make the most of it.

0:28:43.920 --> 0:28:47.800
<v Speaker 1>Yeah, exactly, very strange and interesting. So tell us where

0:28:47.800 --> 0:28:49.880
<v Speaker 1>we should keep our eyes peeled now, talk to us

0:28:49.880 --> 0:28:50.600
<v Speaker 1>about the future.

0:28:50.880 --> 0:28:53.160
<v Speaker 6>Yeah, there's always a lot. It's a lot happening.

0:28:53.560 --> 0:28:56.720
<v Speaker 3>The very first thing to know, if people want to

0:28:56.720 --> 0:29:00.160
<v Speaker 3>know about sort of elections going forward, is that they're

0:28:59.920 --> 0:29:03.480
<v Speaker 3>a special elections happening in January and early twenty twenty

0:29:03.520 --> 0:29:08.600
<v Speaker 3>five in Michigan and Virginia for important seats in the state.

0:29:08.560 --> 0:29:09.560
<v Speaker 5>And the governorship.

0:29:09.760 --> 0:29:12.360
<v Speaker 3>Governorship is going to be in in November, but there

0:29:12.360 --> 0:29:15.160
<v Speaker 3>are races in January, like literally around the corner that

0:29:15.280 --> 0:29:18.360
<v Speaker 3>will decide whether Democrats keep control of the state tenets

0:29:18.520 --> 0:29:20.840
<v Speaker 3>in Virginia and Michigan, and those those are very important.

0:29:21.000 --> 0:29:23.840
<v Speaker 3>And then yes, obviously the big one in twenty twenty

0:29:23.840 --> 0:29:27.600
<v Speaker 3>five is the governor's race in the state of Virginia.

0:29:27.680 --> 0:29:29.560
<v Speaker 3>That is going to be an open race because the

0:29:29.600 --> 0:29:32.760
<v Speaker 3>governor is not allowed to run for reelection. Democrats will

0:29:32.800 --> 0:29:36.520
<v Speaker 3>want to take that governorship back, which would give potentially

0:29:36.560 --> 0:29:39.480
<v Speaker 3>give them control they state government there that they lost

0:29:39.880 --> 0:29:42.680
<v Speaker 3>a few years ago. That's really a big one to

0:29:42.800 --> 0:29:45.360
<v Speaker 3>watch in Virginia. And the other the second big sort

0:29:45.400 --> 0:29:48.080
<v Speaker 3>of state wide race in twenty twenty five is the

0:29:48.120 --> 0:29:51.880
<v Speaker 3>Supreme Court race in Wisconsin. So that's actually happening in April,

0:29:52.280 --> 0:29:54.640
<v Speaker 3>and I already talked a bunch about why that court

0:29:54.680 --> 0:29:57.520
<v Speaker 3>has been so important in the past. A liberal justice

0:29:57.680 --> 0:30:01.520
<v Speaker 3>is not running for reelection in April, and conservutives have

0:30:01.560 --> 0:30:04.240
<v Speaker 3>a shot at flipping the court back to the right

0:30:04.360 --> 0:30:08.360
<v Speaker 3>in Wisconsin. Expect that to be extremely expensive race. It's

0:30:08.360 --> 0:30:10.880
<v Speaker 3>sort of going to be on its own on the calendar.

0:30:10.960 --> 0:30:14.360
<v Speaker 3>There's nothing around it happening. The stakes are very high

0:30:14.800 --> 0:30:19.960
<v Speaker 3>on abortion rights in Wisconsin, on redistricting in Wisconsin. That's

0:30:20.000 --> 0:30:24.160
<v Speaker 3>really where the next big campaign is likely to be.

0:30:24.560 --> 0:30:26.800
<v Speaker 3>And also, you know, at this point, the US House

0:30:26.880 --> 0:30:31.120
<v Speaker 3>is so tight, we're all that any special election, any retirement,

0:30:31.400 --> 0:30:35.640
<v Speaker 3>any vacancy would just be a huge deal, right because

0:30:36.000 --> 0:30:39.760
<v Speaker 3>if what once it flips, that actually has huge consequences.

0:30:39.800 --> 0:30:42.160
<v Speaker 1>What it has right now, it's good or at least

0:30:42.160 --> 0:30:44.760
<v Speaker 1>it's going to be two seventeen to two fifteen. Right.

0:30:45.160 --> 0:30:48.360
<v Speaker 3>So the results of November fifth were two twenty two,

0:30:48.360 --> 0:30:52.240
<v Speaker 3>two fifteen, and Trump named three people from the Republican

0:30:52.240 --> 0:30:54.320
<v Speaker 3>caucus and then Gates was one of them, and then

0:30:54.360 --> 0:30:54.960
<v Speaker 3>he resigned.

0:30:54.960 --> 0:30:56.800
<v Speaker 6>But is not going to be in the House. It's

0:30:56.840 --> 0:30:57.840
<v Speaker 6>not going to be aged anyway.

0:30:58.160 --> 0:31:00.000
<v Speaker 3>Yes, So that gets us as two seventeen to fifty

0:31:00.280 --> 0:31:02.040
<v Speaker 3>for now until the special elections.

0:31:02.360 --> 0:31:05.840
<v Speaker 1>Just as a reminder to listeners, you can't tie in

0:31:05.880 --> 0:31:07.000
<v Speaker 1>the House of Representatives.

0:31:07.040 --> 0:31:07.960
<v Speaker 5>You tie, you lose.

0:31:08.160 --> 0:31:12.280
<v Speaker 1>So it means that effectively Mike Johnson has a one

0:31:12.280 --> 0:31:13.080
<v Speaker 1>seat majority.

0:31:13.280 --> 0:31:15.800
<v Speaker 3>And at that point it's not just who has won

0:31:16.000 --> 0:31:18.800
<v Speaker 3>or who is in Congress, it's who is sick that

0:31:18.880 --> 0:31:22.800
<v Speaker 3>they who has a wedding to attend in Michigan, who

0:31:22.880 --> 0:31:25.280
<v Speaker 3>has you know, we we already saw that in the

0:31:25.320 --> 0:31:29.320
<v Speaker 3>last few years, where an absence could have huge consequences

0:31:29.600 --> 0:31:32.080
<v Speaker 3>in what's happening. And that's going to be a lot

0:31:32.080 --> 0:31:33.640
<v Speaker 3>more intense in coming months.

0:31:33.760 --> 0:31:36.840
<v Speaker 1>And actually, if you want to get furious, I was

0:31:36.880 --> 0:31:39.959
<v Speaker 1>talking to a member who was saying to me, you know,

0:31:40.440 --> 0:31:42.880
<v Speaker 1>Democrats have a couple of people who haven't been to

0:31:42.960 --> 0:31:46.040
<v Speaker 1>Congress in a while, of coorse, who are actually like

0:31:46.200 --> 0:31:48.960
<v Speaker 1>legitimately sick and who can't get there.

0:31:48.920 --> 0:31:51.080
<v Speaker 5>But who probably should not be in office anymore.

0:31:51.160 --> 0:31:54.200
<v Speaker 1>Now that said, Republicans also have that, But that is

0:31:54.280 --> 0:31:55.160
<v Speaker 1>quite infuriating.

0:31:55.920 --> 0:31:58.640
<v Speaker 3>Yes, I wish I had pulled the median age of

0:31:59.360 --> 0:32:00.000
<v Speaker 3>people in Congress.

0:32:00.120 --> 0:32:02.400
<v Speaker 6>By what you're saying doesn't surprise me.

0:32:02.480 --> 0:32:05.560
<v Speaker 1>Yeah, you know, look there's a Nancy Pelosi eighty tray

0:32:06.000 --> 0:32:08.200
<v Speaker 1>and then there's you know, some of those people are

0:32:08.240 --> 0:32:10.840
<v Speaker 1>not so old, but they are sick and they need

0:32:10.880 --> 0:32:12.880
<v Speaker 1>to leave if they're if they're too sick to get

0:32:12.880 --> 0:32:13.640
<v Speaker 1>to work, you know.

0:32:13.920 --> 0:32:17.520
<v Speaker 3>To also maybe to give a parallel point as to

0:32:17.600 --> 0:32:20.160
<v Speaker 3>how tight the margin is, because we were taught talking

0:32:20.200 --> 0:32:23.560
<v Speaker 3>earlier about re district thing, right, and we redistricting in

0:32:23.560 --> 0:32:26.240
<v Speaker 3>the state of Wisconsin in particular. So let's just talk

0:32:26.240 --> 0:32:30.400
<v Speaker 3>about redistricting in North Carolina for a moment, because the

0:32:30.480 --> 0:32:33.560
<v Speaker 3>exact inverse of what happened in Wisconsin happened in North

0:32:33.560 --> 0:32:37.240
<v Speaker 3>Carolina in twenty twenty two. Republicans flipped that state Supreme

0:32:37.280 --> 0:32:41.600
<v Speaker 3>Court and they struck down a prior ruling that had

0:32:43.000 --> 0:32:46.200
<v Speaker 3>stopped the GOP from passing their own maps. And so

0:32:46.320 --> 0:32:50.400
<v Speaker 3>what happened is that the GOP in North Carolina passed

0:32:50.480 --> 0:32:54.720
<v Speaker 3>new maps for twenty twenty four and that flipped three seats,

0:32:54.920 --> 0:32:57.560
<v Speaker 3>three seats and the margin in the House out of

0:32:57.600 --> 0:33:00.800
<v Speaker 3>the number fifth. If three seats hadn't flipped, the Democrats

0:33:00.800 --> 0:33:04.320
<v Speaker 3>would have been the majority party. So it's just so

0:33:04.520 --> 0:33:09.120
<v Speaker 3>interesting to trace back the current Republican majority not just

0:33:09.240 --> 0:33:11.960
<v Speaker 3>to the new map in North Carolina, but also as

0:33:11.960 --> 0:33:14.480
<v Speaker 3>a result to the state court elections that happen in

0:33:14.480 --> 0:33:15.280
<v Speaker 3>twenty twenty two.

0:33:15.560 --> 0:33:16.640
<v Speaker 6>Now, we don't think.

0:33:16.440 --> 0:33:21.760
<v Speaker 3>About the state court races as that relevant maybe to

0:33:21.840 --> 0:33:25.120
<v Speaker 3>federal politics or to the national politics, but here's a

0:33:25.200 --> 0:33:30.000
<v Speaker 3>case where literally the state level races for this for

0:33:30.280 --> 0:33:34.680
<v Speaker 3>state judges are directly responsible for a new map that

0:33:35.160 --> 0:33:37.480
<v Speaker 3>is directly responsible for who has the majority right now

0:33:37.560 --> 0:33:40.360
<v Speaker 3>in US House. So you know, that really explains maybe

0:33:40.360 --> 0:33:43.560
<v Speaker 3>to people why the coming election in Wisconsin is going

0:33:43.600 --> 0:33:46.000
<v Speaker 3>to be so expensive and why in twenty twenty six,

0:33:46.040 --> 0:33:48.240
<v Speaker 3>you know, you should repay attention to what's happening.

0:33:47.880 --> 0:33:50.040
<v Speaker 6>At the state level in these elections.

0:33:50.080 --> 0:33:51.000
<v Speaker 1>So interesting.

0:33:51.400 --> 0:33:53.400
<v Speaker 5>Thank you for coming on Daniel, I hope.

0:33:53.200 --> 0:33:55.320
<v Speaker 6>You'll come back, of course, thanks for having me.

0:33:55.840 --> 0:33:59.880
<v Speaker 1>That's it for this episode of Fast Politics. Tune in

0:34:00.520 --> 0:34:06.000
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0:34:06.080 --> 0:34:10.359
<v Speaker 1>minds and politics make sense of all this chaos. If

0:34:10.400 --> 0:34:13.440
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0:34:15.960 --> 0:34:17.080
<v Speaker 5>Thanks for listening.