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Speaker 1: Hi, I'm Molly John Fast and this is Fast Politics. Well,

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Speaker 1: we discussed the top political headlines with some of today's

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Speaker 1: best minds.

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Speaker 2: We're on vacation, but that doesn't mean we don't have

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Speaker 2: a great show for you Today. Bolts Magazines Daniel Nacatia

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Speaker 2: details how states are going to affect policy in twenty

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Speaker 2: twenty five. But first we'll talk to mother Jones Eda

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Speaker 2: Merlin about how rfk's conspiracy minded world is making new

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Speaker 2: conspiracy theories about a pandemic.

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Speaker 1: Welcome back to past polity, Axanna, thanks for having me.

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Speaker 1: What's happening right now is so completely insane, So I

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Speaker 1: want you to first talk to us about this paranoia

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Speaker 1: about a post inauguration plandemic.

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Speaker 3: Yeah.

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Speaker 4: So, essentially what happened with this is that a scientist

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Speaker 4: and vaccine expert named doctor Peter Hotez went on MSNBC

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Speaker 4: and said that there are these kind of obvious disease

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Speaker 4: outbreak threats the next Trump administration is going to.

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Speaker 5: Have to deal with.

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Speaker 4: Right specifically, he said, we have some big picture stuff

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Speaker 4: coming down the pipe, meaning you know, ab and flu news,

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Speaker 4: streams of COVID, other potential outbreaks and sort of conspiracy

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Speaker 4: theorists mostly on the rate took that to me and

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Speaker 4: that he was threatening to unleash disease outbreaks during the

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Speaker 4: next Trump administration, because he also said all that stuff

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Speaker 4: is going to come crashing down on January twenty first

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Speaker 4: on the Trump administration. We need a really good team

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Speaker 4: to be able to handle this. So that was taken

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Speaker 4: as not just he's warning about disease outbreaks. That was

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Speaker 4: taken as he says they're going to He's going to

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Speaker 4: cause them, which is ridiculous.

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Speaker 1: Right, It is so completely beyond crazy this idea. So

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Speaker 1: what is the thinking here and who are the people

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Speaker 1: who are narrating this?

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Speaker 6: Right?

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Speaker 4: So, I think the first important thing to kind of

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Speaker 4: know here is that doctor Hotez is a really frequent

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Speaker 4: sort of target of the anti vaccine movement and the

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Speaker 4: right and the far right, you know, just to kind

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Speaker 4: of set the scene, he's, like I believe he's he

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Speaker 4: wears a bow tie. He's a recognized vaccine expert and

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Speaker 4: has been for years and was a real proponent during

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Speaker 4: COVID four people to get vaccinated. And then all of

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Speaker 4: that has put him on the radar of people like

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Speaker 4: Steve Bannon and Carlson and Joe Rogan and Aaron Rodgers,

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Speaker 4: all of them have denounced him in pretty like personal

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Speaker 4: terms over the years. So almost anytime he says anything,

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Speaker 4: he faces some degree of sort of outrage, harassment, pushback,

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Speaker 4: what have you. But talking specifically about these new threats

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Speaker 4: that the next Trump administration is going to face also

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Speaker 4: ran into this other thing, which is that the broader

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Speaker 4: kind of conspiracy community has been warning that, you know,

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Speaker 4: the deep spit, deep state or other dark forces are

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Speaker 4: going to try to interfere with Trump's presidency, you know,

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Speaker 4: and somehow set him up for failure, which it's worth

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Speaker 4: noting they also said this last time before he took office,

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Speaker 4: Like Alex Jones said before Trump took office the first time,

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Speaker 4: you know, they're not going to let him take office,

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Speaker 4: And so there's a lot of that now. This just

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Speaker 4: sort of created a kind of perfect storm situation where

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Speaker 4: the folks are trying to tell their audiences that Trump

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Speaker 4: is already under threat, right and running up against something

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Speaker 4: that is real and true, which is there are probably

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Speaker 4: going to be some pretty serious disease outbreaks in the

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Speaker 4: next couple of years. In California, today declared a state

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Speaker 4: of emergency over the Avian flu outbreak, we're seeing new

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Speaker 4: cases in human beings, which is pretty scary.

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Speaker 6: You know.

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Speaker 4: We've seen a couple of disease outbreaks in Africa, specifically

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Speaker 4: in Congo. There's a really devastating measles outbreak and also

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Speaker 4: an outbreak of novel disease that they're not sure what

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Speaker 4: it is yet, right, and then COVID is always a threat.

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Speaker 4: We're seeing COVID cases starting to tick back up. So

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Speaker 4: by warning that there's going to be a quote unquote plandemic,

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Speaker 4: like by implying that doctor Hotez or some other people

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Speaker 4: are going to cause the next pandemic, it acknowledges that

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Speaker 4: it's going to happen, and then it's real. But it

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Speaker 4: puts the blame onto a more politically useful group of actors.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, because it's much better if they can get mad

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Speaker 1: at the left than the right, is what you're saying.

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Speaker 4: Well, and if it's a conspiracy, right, if it's not

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Speaker 4: just like the outbreak of infectious disease has been happening

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Speaker 4: for years, it's better if it has a person behind

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Speaker 4: it to blame, preferably somebody who can be depicted as

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Speaker 4: sort of like an opponent of Donald Trump. So you know,

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Speaker 4: I'm seeing like Mickey willis sharing these ideas. Who's the

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Speaker 4: filmmaker who produced pandemic right of course, you know, which

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Speaker 4: implied that COVID nineteen was sort of deliberately created and

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Speaker 4: unleashed several pretty well known kind of anti vac seating

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Speaker 4: figures conspiratorial news sites like info wars and natural News.

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Speaker 4: So this one got a pretty wide amount of pickup

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Speaker 4: because it was useful for so many different people.

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Speaker 5: Yeah, I would love you to talk about it.

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Speaker 1: How a lot of these conspiracies are actually used by

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Speaker 1: people on the right to push a narrative.

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Speaker 5: Can you talk a little more about them.

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Speaker 4: The common thread with a lot of these is that

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Speaker 4: they create someone to blame, right, They create a sense

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Speaker 4: of a group of evil doers, like working in secret

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Speaker 4: against the common good, you know, kind of classic conspiracy stuff.

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Speaker 4: And so folding in new disease outbreaks into that is useful,

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Speaker 4: It's helpful. It creates a common energy, someone to blame,

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Speaker 4: someone to get mad at. And as we saw with

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Speaker 4: for instance, QAnon, you know, the basis of the qnon

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Speaker 4: conspiracy theory was that Donald Trump was doing a really

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Speaker 4: good job, but that a group of evil doers were

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Speaker 4: working against him and we're undermining him. So this idea

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Speaker 4: of a deep state or a sinister group of scientists

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Speaker 4: or some other kind of group of villains thwarting what

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Speaker 4: Donald Trump is trying to do is a useful idea if,

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Speaker 4: for instance, Donald Trump is having trouble getting things done.

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Speaker 1: So it's sort of way to give him an out

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Speaker 1: if he can't do some of the things he might

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Speaker 1: want to do.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, just sort of like preemptively create a set of

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Speaker 4: let's say too, yeah, a set of villains, a set

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Speaker 4: of factors that could be used to create an out

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Speaker 4: or you know, an alternate explanation for anything that does

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Speaker 4: not happen during the next Rump administration. Because he's making

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Speaker 4: really big promises, and so are people who are going

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Speaker 4: to be in administration.

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Speaker 1: Broad expensive, hard to maneuver promises totally.

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Speaker 4: You know, I mean, when you say that you're going

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Speaker 4: to solve all of these issues on day one, whether

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Speaker 4: it is the war in Ukraine, the war in Gaza.

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Speaker 4: You know, if you're Robert F. Kennedy Junior and you're

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Speaker 4: claiming that you're going to end ill.

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Speaker 5: Health, whatever that means, it's pretty vague.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, but yeah, I mean, these are incredibly broad claims,

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Speaker 4: and if you can't get them done, then it would

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Speaker 4: be great to be able to blame someone in advance.

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Speaker 1: So let's just for another minute talk about why I'm

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Speaker 1: wondering if you could explain to us sort of one

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Speaker 1: of the things that I've.

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Speaker 5: Been destruck by when we talk about our Cage Junior.

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Speaker 1: Part of K Junior actually brought a group into MAGA world.

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Speaker 5: They are really the other side of the horseshoe in

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Speaker 5: a lot of ways. I'm hoping you could talk.

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Speaker 1: About sort of who RFK Junior's people are and why

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Speaker 1: they exist.

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Speaker 3: Right.

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Speaker 4: First of all, I should plug Conspiratuality, the podcasts that

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Speaker 4: talks about the kind of incursion of right and far

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Speaker 4: right beliefs into the New Age health and wellness world

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Speaker 4: if you're curious about this, because they've done really great

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Speaker 4: work over the years talking about the ways that these

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Speaker 4: different characters kind of appear and join forces. But you know,

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Speaker 4: the first thing that Kennedy was in his adult life

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Speaker 4: was an environmental lawyer, and the second thing was an

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Speaker 4: anti vaccine activist. He's claimed that he got involved in

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Speaker 4: the vaccine issue in like two thousand and five because

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Speaker 4: you know, concerned mother came to him. But he has

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Speaker 4: created a really outsized public image in the anti vaccine

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Speaker 4: world as a crusader for their health right and has

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Speaker 4: like a real intense fandom in the anti vaccine world,

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Speaker 4: especially among mothers who believe that their children were harmed

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Speaker 4: by vaccines. And because he's built this incredibly like adoring

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Speaker 4: fan base, a lot of them were just automatically like

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Speaker 4: willing to follow him when he began this kind of

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Speaker 4: presidential run in this political career, willing to advocate for

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Speaker 4: his campaign. And then when his campaign started to founder

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Speaker 4: and he decided to suspend it and endorse Donald Trump,

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Speaker 4: he made what was a pretty canny sort of marketing

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Speaker 4: decision and started promoting this idea of the make America

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Speaker 4: Healthy Again movement in Maha, and Maha was meant to

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Speaker 4: be a way to kind of unite the concerns of

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Speaker 4: Trump voters and sort of Kennedy fans under one umbrella.

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Speaker 4: And it's not always like the most comfortable relationship, you know,

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Speaker 4: Like Kennedy is obviously a pretty big proponent of what

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Speaker 4: he considers to be healthy foods. There was that viral

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Speaker 4: image of him sitting uncomfortably at a table with Donald

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Speaker 4: Trump and some other people, you know, with McDonald's in

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Speaker 4: front of him, looking uncomfortable.

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Speaker 1: It.

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Speaker 4: You know, it's not always like the most natural kind

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Speaker 4: of marriage between these two sides, but they do share

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Speaker 4: some things in common, chiefly the sense that the government

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Speaker 4: regulates too much, especially around food safety.

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Speaker 1: Right, which is ironic because part of the problem here

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Speaker 1: when you think about like microplastics, the kind of thing

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Speaker 1: wouldn't that be a lack of government regulation.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, I mean, so this is interesting because both the

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Speaker 4: Maha people and the more died in the wole Trump

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Speaker 4: people do share this sense of government overreach and this

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Speaker 4: idea that, yeah, that the government is doing too much

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Speaker 4: and regulates too much around food and around medication. But yeah,

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Speaker 4: when we talk about a lot of the goals that

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Speaker 4: Kennedy wants to achieve, they are more about better and

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Speaker 4: further regulation of food safety. I mean, he also sort

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Speaker 4: of falsely claims that vaccines are unsafe, that they are

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Speaker 4: not tested, that they are not regulated in a way

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Speaker 4: that other drugs are, none of which is true. But again,

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Speaker 4: like to me, that sounds like he's making an argument

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Speaker 4: for more government oversight, not less right, but you know,

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Speaker 4: as the nominee for the head of AHHS, you know,

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Speaker 4: it seems like a lot of what he's talking about

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Speaker 4: is cutting funding and regulation and sort of like taking

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Speaker 4: away funding, especially from agencies that he considers to be corrupt,

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Speaker 4: like the NIH and the CDC.

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Speaker 5: So that's where raw milk comes into it. Can you

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Speaker 5: talk about raw milk?

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Speaker 4: Yeah, specifically raw milk. Where it relates to Kennedy is

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Speaker 4: he did this kind of viral tweet a while ago

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Speaker 4: where he was talking about all of the things that

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Speaker 4: he wants to reduce oversight of or you know, enforcement

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Speaker 4: actions against when he's the head of the AHHS. In October,

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Speaker 4: he had this kind of viral tweet where he said,

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Speaker 4: you know, the Fday's war on public health is about

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Speaker 4: to end. This includes its aggressive suppression of psychedelics, peptides,

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Speaker 4: stem cells, raw milk, hyperbaric therapies, kulating compound, impromectin, hydroxy clark,

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Speaker 4: when vitamins, clean food, sunshine, exercise, nutriceuticals, and anything else

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Speaker 4: that advances human health and can't be patented by pharma. Right,

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Speaker 4: and he's been super critical.

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Speaker 5: Of the war on sunshine.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, of course, right, But yeah, he's been super critical

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Speaker 4: of the FDA, and the USDA is sort of enforcement

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Speaker 4: actions against raw milk distributors when they are either taking

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Speaker 4: stuff across state lines or when you know, testing reveals

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Speaker 4: the presence of a flu, as it has recently. So yeah,

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Speaker 4: he's made it pretty clear that he considers raw milk

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Speaker 4: to be a health food that is inappropriately suppressed by

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Speaker 4: the federal government.

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Speaker 1: So interesting. Yeah, the war on sunlight is a real one.

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Speaker 1: So it's funny because this is so stupid. But then

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Speaker 1: also there's a certain like can you make the raw

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Speaker 1: milk and the ball of Arena farm stuff makes sense

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Speaker 1: for us. I think you have to explain Ballerina Farm

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Speaker 1: for the few, the few lucky people who don't know what.

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Speaker 4: This is, right, So, Vallerina Farm is a woman in

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Speaker 4: whose real name is Hannah Neilman. Basically, she's a social

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Speaker 4: media influencer. She's often referred to as a tradwife, though

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Speaker 4: I think she denies that, like she doesn't identify with

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Speaker 4: that designation. She is a woman who with her husband,

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Speaker 4: owns a farm in Utah and sells meat and sells

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Speaker 4: sourdos starter and kind of cultivates a what to me

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Speaker 4: seems like a tradwive aesthetic on social media, where she

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Speaker 4: has like a million, Oh, I'm sorry, she has ten

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Speaker 4: million Instagram followers and nine million on TikTok.

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Speaker 5: I actually don't know what.

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Speaker 4: Her stance is specifically on raw Milk, but I would

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Speaker 4: say that the tradwives, like some of the Raw Milk influencers,

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Speaker 4: sort of present themselves as advocating for an older, healthier,

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Speaker 4: more sort of a nostalgic view of health and wellness

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Speaker 4: that harkens back to an earlier and better and more

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Speaker 4: innocent time basically.

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Speaker 5: For the modern life.

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Speaker 1: I mean, the idea is that somehow modernity has ruined

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Speaker 1: American life.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, and we see that right in all kinds of

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Speaker 4: different areas, whether it is masculinity influencers talking about feminism

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Speaker 4: as the corrosive force, whether it's tribal wives also talking

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Speaker 4: about feminism as a corrosive force, whether it is mister

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Speaker 4: Kennedy saying that, you know, US health and safety agencies

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Speaker 4: are sort of inappropriately regulating things that we're seen as

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Speaker 4: healthy in previous eras, though of course that's not true

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Speaker 4: for things like hyperberic occiden chambers or chelating compounds. We've

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Speaker 4: been pasteurizing milk for a really long time because we

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Speaker 4: learned that it makes it much more difficult to get

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Speaker 4: things like tuberculosis listeriosis.

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Speaker 1: Like, yeah, yes, we have really ended up through the

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Speaker 1: rabbit hole here.

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Speaker 5: I'd love you to talk just for two seconds about

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Speaker 5: the polio vaccine.

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Speaker 4: So basically, there's a story in The New York Times

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Speaker 4: this week about how an attorney named Arion Siri, who's

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Speaker 4: a big player in the anti vaccine movement and who's

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Speaker 4: kind of linked to mister Kennedy and some other big

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Speaker 4: anti vaccine players like Dell big Tree, he filed a

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Speaker 4: petition for the government to revoke its approval of one

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Speaker 4: of the polio vaccines that is currently used in the

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Speaker 4: United States. He's also filed petitions seeking to pause the

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Speaker 4: distribution of other vaccines, including COVID vaccines. So this is

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Speaker 4: the long shot. Currently, this is not something that the

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Speaker 4: federal government would do, especially not for the specific polio

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Speaker 4: vaccine that was used in the United States. So it

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Speaker 4: is just widely considered to be extremely safe, very effective.

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Speaker 4: It is incredibly rare for children or adults in the

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Speaker 4: US to get polio anymore, which it didn't used to be. Basically,

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Speaker 4: Aaron Siri represents a group called I CAN, which is

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Speaker 4: owned by Dell Big Trees and anti vaccine Actiputs who

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Speaker 4: worked for Robert F. Kennedy Junior's campaign, and these petitions

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Speaker 4: to revoke authorization of these certain vaccines are being put

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Speaker 4: out by I CAN. So basically, right now, the idea

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Speaker 4: that the FDA would read petitions and be like, yeah,

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Speaker 4: we should do that is incredibly far fetched. With Robert F.

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Speaker 4: Kennedy Junior over AHHS, which is over the FDA, maybe

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Speaker 4: that would change. So it's more kind of about at

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Speaker 4: this point signaling what the priorities are for allies of

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Speaker 4: mister Kennedy if he is confirmed and sworn in as

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Speaker 4: head of AHHS.

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Speaker 1: This is such completely insane I should laugh. I laugh

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Speaker 1: to keep from crying. Thank you, thank you, thank you,

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Speaker 1: thank you for coming on.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, thank you for having me.

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Speaker 2: Daniel Lakatian is the editor of Bolt's bagazine.

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Speaker 1: Welcome back to Fast Politics, Daniel, talk us through state legislatures,

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Speaker 1: what's going on?

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Speaker 5: Talk us through elections? You're my election guy, among others.

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Speaker 6: Well, thanks for having me again.

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Speaker 3: It's yeah, a lot has changed since since I last

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Speaker 3: talked to you.

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Speaker 6: Quich probably was before the election.

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Speaker 3: We had bolts where I work reading low closely at

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Speaker 3: the state level, at the county level, which you know,

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Speaker 3: it doesn't get as much attention as obviously the federal elections.

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Speaker 3: Very understandable reasons, but when it comes to you know,

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Speaker 3: when it comes to a lot of things that people

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Speaker 3: really care about, including emotion rights, including civil rights, really

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Speaker 3: thinks that are going to be at the center of

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Speaker 3: the next two to four years. States are everything, especially

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Speaker 3: if you're a progressive, trying to find places where there

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Speaker 3: could be pushback, you know, cases where whether legal or political,

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Speaker 3: that's really word to look. And so a lot of

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Speaker 3: what we've done is look at state houses, state senates

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Speaker 3: and also state Supreme Court. So to just start with

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Speaker 3: state senates and state houses. You know what I did

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Speaker 3: in the in the past few weeks is quite is

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Speaker 3: just go state by state. Look in every state, how

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Speaker 3: did the composition of state chambers change, And that's really

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Speaker 3: going to determine what yours have opened and closed in

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Speaker 3: the next year.

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Speaker 1: I want to pause for a minute and just for

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Speaker 1: our listeners explain. You know, we're all feeling pretty moralized

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Speaker 1: and these state legislatures are a way to take power back.

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Speaker 1: They're not expensive. They are happening, you know, on off cycles.

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Speaker 1: So and these off yr elections are ones where low

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Speaker 1: turnout rules and a little money can make a big difference.

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Speaker 1: So anyways, start talking to me about these state legislators.

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Speaker 6: Yeah.

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Speaker 1: No.

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Speaker 3: So the first sort of big number that I thought

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Speaker 3: was interesting is I quite literally look at the swing

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Speaker 3: of state seats if you take into account all the

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Speaker 3: races across the country, which obviously is a bit of

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Speaker 3: a silly exercise because there isn't ever an institution where

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Speaker 3: every state lawmaker from Alaska to Florida gets in the room, right,

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Speaker 3: But there were rough six thousand elections happening for state

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Speaker 3: lawmaker around the country, and out of this six thousand,

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Speaker 3: the GOP gained fifty seven seats. That's a small number,

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Speaker 3: I mean, obviously, you know, it suggests that the UOPE

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Speaker 3: had the better nights, and if you look at the detail,

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Speaker 3: which we could do in a second, they had some

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Speaker 3: big wins, but if you look at the overall composition,

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Speaker 3: it was quite small given the extent of the shift.

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Speaker 3: Obviously in the presidential election. So this is another instance

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Speaker 3: like in the US House, where the coattails of Trump

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Speaker 3: were were much smaller than one might expect, and Democrats

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Speaker 3: clearly got a lot of bright spots as well. Republicans

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Speaker 3: gained seats in twenty states and Democrats gained seats in

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Speaker 3: eleven states. Again, the GOP had the better night, but

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Speaker 3: we do see in a bunch of states where Democrats

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Speaker 3: are the ones who gained seats and are in a

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Speaker 3: better spot going into twenty twenty five.

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Speaker 5: So let's talk about those states.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, yeah, So let's talk of the two most interesting

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Speaker 3: spots because in Wisconsin and Montana. Wisconsin and Montana had

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Speaker 3: new maps this year for the first time, and they

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Speaker 3: were more equitable maps than the ones that they were

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Speaker 3: using in twenty twenty twenty. In Wisconsin is probably the

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Speaker 3: one that a lot of people who are who might

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Speaker 3: listen to this have heard about, because there was a

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Speaker 3: huge court fight in Wisconsin around the gerrymanders that Republican

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Speaker 3: tasked in the early twenty tens and early twenty twenties

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Speaker 3: to re locked in their majorities in the state House

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Speaker 3: and the state Senate. And it took I mean, it

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Speaker 3: was a very expensive election for the state Supreme Court

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Speaker 3: in twenty twenty three got a lot of attention in

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Speaker 3: April twenty three, which is just a year and a

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Speaker 3: half to go, and the candidates supported by Democrats there

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Speaker 3: won and flipped the Court to the left for the

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Speaker 3: first time in a long time. And then the Court

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Speaker 3: shruck down the GOP gerrymanders that was a year ago,

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Speaker 3: and the new map was created and lo and behold

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Speaker 3: that that the map created a lot of change, as

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Speaker 3: you would expect, because we went from a very aggressive

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Speaker 3: up jeromander to a fair map. And over in the state,

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Speaker 3: Democrats gained fourteen seats in Wisconsin, so that's the biggest

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Speaker 3: gain they made anywhere in the country. Republicans kept their

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Speaker 3: majority in both chambers, but they're small majorities compared to

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Speaker 3: the quasi supermajorities they had, and it sets Democrats up

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Speaker 3: very well for twenty twenty six for trying to flip

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Speaker 3: control of Wisconsin for the first time in a long time.

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Speaker 3: And there's a somewhat similar story in Montana, which is

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Speaker 3: quite interesting because the defeat of John Tester in the

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Speaker 3: race for the US Senate was a huge story. Obviously,

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Speaker 3: on election night at the state level, Democrats gained twelve

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Speaker 3: seats across both chambers and up's supermajorities, which is actually

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Speaker 3: quite important because the GOP was hoping to use its

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Speaker 3: supermajorities to put constitutional amendments on the ballots on party

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Speaker 3: line votes.

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Speaker 1: Basically, they somehow flipped the Senate seed but lost the

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Speaker 1: majority in the House.

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Speaker 6: No, they did not lose the majority. Germany ten seats

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Speaker 6: in the state House, and that seems like a lot

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Speaker 6: that it's a big change.

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Speaker 3: Again, it's it has to do with the districting fighter

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Speaker 3: that was describing earlier, but the one that didn't come randomly.

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Speaker 3: There was a whole fight and another point of contact Smalledgy.

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Speaker 3: To just show you the depth of how everything is related.

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Speaker 3: There were elections for the state court in the state

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Speaker 3: of Montana, and Montana might be a very unusual state

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Speaker 3: in for a red state, in that it has a

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Speaker 3: state court, the state High Court the Supreme Court that

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Speaker 3: leans to the left and has repeatedly struck down GOP

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Speaker 3: bills in the last few years, including a restriction on abortion,

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Speaker 3: including restrictions on voting access, and conservatives were hoping to

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Speaker 3: really change that left lean of the.

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Speaker 6: Court and that didn't succeed.

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Speaker 3: Actually, there was a key race there that the Democratic

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Speaker 3: affiliated candidate won, So there is still going to be

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Speaker 3: this bucket of resistance in the state government, which is

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Speaker 3: going to be the state Court, and therefore that's why

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Speaker 3: the GOPS lost to the super majority there is important

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Speaker 3: because they're not going to be able to go around

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Speaker 3: the court and just put stuff on the ballot at well.

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Speaker 3: So that's going to be very interesting situation in coming years.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, that is very interesting, all right, So talk to

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Speaker 1: me about other state launche stuff. So the bright spots

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Speaker 1: Montana and what else.

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Speaker 3: Wisconsin one of the two biggest ones. So there are

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Speaker 3: others where Democrats gained seats, but the GOP also had

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Speaker 3: just to be clear of very bright spots. The two

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Speaker 3: main stories to just highlight are that the GOP erased

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Speaker 3: the majorities that Democrats had for the past couple of

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Speaker 3: years in the House in Michigan and the Minnesota House.

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Speaker 3: And in both cases, Democrats had just won control the

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Speaker 3: full government in twenty twenty two, which you might remember

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Speaker 3: as a huge story because no one expected Democrats to

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Speaker 3: to gain power during the mid term, and the GOP

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Speaker 3: gained just enough seats in both states to erase Democratic

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Speaker 3: majorities in the House. That doesn't mean that the Republicans

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Speaker 3: have control the state government because Democrats have in both

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Speaker 3: states the governorship and the state Senate. But it does stop, obviously,

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Speaker 3: the ability of Democrats to pass laws at will with

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Speaker 3: their own votes. In Michigan and Minnesota, those are states

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Speaker 3: that they used to do. They did a lot of

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Speaker 3: stuff in the last couple of years, a lot of

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Speaker 3: which made headlines. Just as an example, you know the

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Speaker 3: free lunches and schools that Governor Waltz signed. Governor Walts

440
00:23:15,400 --> 00:23:18,320
Speaker 3: also signed a voting rights Act at the state level.

441
00:23:18,680 --> 00:23:21,200
Speaker 3: So all of those sort of policies were done because

442
00:23:21,240 --> 00:23:24,000
Speaker 3: of the trafficta Democrats had. So those are the main

443
00:23:24,040 --> 00:23:26,639
Speaker 3: spot and then the other one I will name is

444
00:23:26,680 --> 00:23:30,880
Speaker 3: that in New England Republicans did. They gained in three states,

445
00:23:31,080 --> 00:23:34,200
Speaker 3: especially the state of Vermont, the state of Vermont, where

446
00:23:34,400 --> 00:23:37,720
Speaker 3: Republicans gained twenty five seats in the state House and

447
00:23:37,760 --> 00:23:41,240
Speaker 3: state Senate in Vermont and broke the supermajorities Democrats had.

448
00:23:41,359 --> 00:23:43,840
Speaker 3: The governor there is a Republican so that's going to

449
00:23:43,920 --> 00:23:46,240
Speaker 3: really tie the hands of Democrats to be able to

450
00:23:46,280 --> 00:23:47,119
Speaker 3: override the veto's.

451
00:23:47,160 --> 00:23:48,280
Speaker 6: The republican governor there.

452
00:23:48,600 --> 00:23:52,720
Speaker 1: Let's talk about what the calendar looks like, now, what's

453
00:23:52,760 --> 00:23:53,280
Speaker 1: coming up?

454
00:23:53,480 --> 00:23:53,800
Speaker 6: First?

455
00:23:53,960 --> 00:23:56,760
Speaker 1: I have this theory that I want you to either

456
00:23:56,880 --> 00:23:58,360
Speaker 1: tell me is wrong or right.

457
00:23:58,560 --> 00:24:01,480
Speaker 5: Okay, So I have this theory that the way.

458
00:24:01,320 --> 00:24:06,280
Speaker 1: This election went wasn't actually Republican Democrat brand, that it

459
00:24:06,400 --> 00:24:10,960
Speaker 1: was Trump then Democrats than Republicans. And so one of

460
00:24:10,960 --> 00:24:13,720
Speaker 1: the phenomenons I saw when I looked at some of

461
00:24:13,720 --> 00:24:16,439
Speaker 1: these numbers from swing states was that you had states

462
00:24:16,440 --> 00:24:19,719
Speaker 1: where Trump got over fifty percent of the vote, then

463
00:24:20,119 --> 00:24:23,400
Speaker 1: they must have left the ticket blank. And I'm wondering

464
00:24:23,440 --> 00:24:26,439
Speaker 1: if you can talk about that phenomenon as it like,

465
00:24:26,520 --> 00:24:29,240
Speaker 1: did you see when you look through the data, did

466
00:24:29,280 --> 00:24:31,920
Speaker 1: you see voters who were just Trump and no one

467
00:24:31,960 --> 00:24:32,760
Speaker 1: else voters?

468
00:24:33,280 --> 00:24:37,800
Speaker 3: That's a great question. I don't have numbers to share

469
00:24:37,880 --> 00:24:41,360
Speaker 3: on the undervote that you're asking about, but I think

470
00:24:41,359 --> 00:24:44,120
Speaker 3: there's evidence to suggest so, I mean, I think your

471
00:24:44,200 --> 00:24:46,560
Speaker 3: question gets to the very first thing I said, right,

472
00:24:46,600 --> 00:24:49,240
Speaker 3: which is that here I was just talking about Michigan

473
00:24:49,280 --> 00:24:52,159
Speaker 3: and Wisconsin, the states that saw a big swing one

474
00:24:52,200 --> 00:24:54,760
Speaker 3: way or the other, but in most of the country.

475
00:24:55,119 --> 00:24:57,920
Speaker 3: It's what the most startling thing as I literally went

476
00:24:58,000 --> 00:24:59,800
Speaker 3: state by state and not just state by state by

477
00:25:00,400 --> 00:25:03,399
Speaker 3: chamber by chamber. The most startling thing to me, that

478
00:25:03,560 --> 00:25:06,800
Speaker 3: the clear story that jumped out is that in so

479
00:25:06,960 --> 00:25:11,080
Speaker 3: many chambers the status quo was almost entirely intact, that

480
00:25:11,119 --> 00:25:15,040
Speaker 3: there was either no change at all or the most

481
00:25:15,240 --> 00:25:18,560
Speaker 3: minimal change. And I mean, I think the most striking

482
00:25:18,640 --> 00:25:22,840
Speaker 3: example is Pennsylvania, which maybe gets to what you're saying.

483
00:25:22,880 --> 00:25:27,359
Speaker 3: So let's just recap what happened in Pennsylvania. Obviously, Trump

484
00:25:27,400 --> 00:25:30,679
Speaker 3: won the state, flipping it on the presidential level. It

485
00:25:30,720 --> 00:25:35,399
Speaker 3: also flipped at the congressional level because Republicans ousted the

486
00:25:35,440 --> 00:25:38,359
Speaker 3: Democratic senator there, and they also gained seats in the

487
00:25:38,440 --> 00:25:40,879
Speaker 3: US House. Now let's go down one level, and this

488
00:25:41,000 --> 00:25:42,760
Speaker 3: is honestly one of the most I don't have a

489
00:25:42,800 --> 00:25:46,240
Speaker 3: particularly great explanation, but it's so startling. Not a single

490
00:25:46,520 --> 00:25:49,320
Speaker 3: seat changed hands in the state House. Out of two

491
00:25:49,359 --> 00:25:53,359
Speaker 3: hundred and three seats. Pennsylvania Democrats had a majority harder

492
00:25:53,359 --> 00:25:55,840
Speaker 3: than two to one hundred and one going into the election,

493
00:25:56,160 --> 00:25:57,720
Speaker 3: and they're going to have a majority harder than two

494
00:25:57,720 --> 00:26:02,240
Speaker 3: ton and one exiting the election. That is quite striking

495
00:26:02,520 --> 00:26:06,399
Speaker 3: given the given the shifts at the federal level that

496
00:26:06,520 --> 00:26:10,400
Speaker 3: did not translate when people were voting, and for their

497
00:26:10,440 --> 00:26:13,040
Speaker 3: state House, and we see this over and over again.

498
00:26:13,600 --> 00:26:15,600
Speaker 3: The number I came up with was that the twenty

499
00:26:15,640 --> 00:26:19,560
Speaker 3: eight chambers saw zero change after holding elections this year,

500
00:26:19,720 --> 00:26:22,480
Speaker 3: and a lot of others only saw a single seat shift.

501
00:26:22,840 --> 00:26:26,399
Speaker 3: That is a lot of stability underlying what you know.

502
00:26:26,480 --> 00:26:28,960
Speaker 3: Has often been covered as like a great night for

503
00:26:29,000 --> 00:26:32,320
Speaker 3: the GOP, a landslide for Trump, but etcetera, which the

504
00:26:32,400 --> 00:26:35,119
Speaker 3: numbers don't really support. Obviously the GOP had the better night,

505
00:26:35,160 --> 00:26:38,600
Speaker 3: there's no question. What I will say is Republicans have

506
00:26:38,680 --> 00:26:40,359
Speaker 3: a lot of reasons to be happy right out of

507
00:26:40,400 --> 00:26:42,120
Speaker 3: November fifth. So they're not going to ask each other

508
00:26:42,160 --> 00:26:44,720
Speaker 3: a lot of questions, which is understandable because.

509
00:26:44,520 --> 00:26:45,440
Speaker 6: They overall won.

510
00:26:45,640 --> 00:26:48,919
Speaker 3: But if you look at what they should ask themselves

511
00:26:49,359 --> 00:26:51,280
Speaker 3: how they weren't able to flip the state House in

512
00:26:51,320 --> 00:26:54,880
Speaker 3: Pennsylvania despite the state shifting to Trump. They should ask themselves,

513
00:26:55,200 --> 00:26:58,639
Speaker 3: right how Perry Lake lost by so much worse than

514
00:26:58,680 --> 00:27:01,920
Speaker 3: Trump in there on a Senate race. For a third

515
00:27:01,960 --> 00:27:04,879
Speaker 3: consecutive cycles, the GOP lost the Senate seat in Arizona,

516
00:27:05,280 --> 00:27:07,600
Speaker 3: and this time was an open race, with Trump winning

517
00:27:07,640 --> 00:27:09,600
Speaker 3: the state by six points, and yet they lost the

518
00:27:09,640 --> 00:27:11,879
Speaker 3: Senate race. There's a lot of questions for the GOP

519
00:27:12,040 --> 00:27:14,240
Speaker 3: to ask itself, and it's not going to ask itself

520
00:27:14,240 --> 00:27:15,080
Speaker 3: that because.

521
00:27:14,880 --> 00:27:16,520
Speaker 6: Take one the big one.

522
00:27:16,800 --> 00:27:21,159
Speaker 3: But there's a lot of different storylines if you dig right.

523
00:27:21,480 --> 00:27:22,400
Speaker 5: Yes, exactly.

524
00:27:22,440 --> 00:27:27,239
Speaker 1: And it is striking to me with Pennsylvania because you

525
00:27:27,320 --> 00:27:30,199
Speaker 1: must have had some people vote for Trump and then

526
00:27:30,200 --> 00:27:31,720
Speaker 1: Democrats on the bottom of the ticket.

527
00:27:31,800 --> 00:27:34,920
Speaker 3: Right, well, yes, no, of course, the question of whether

528
00:27:35,000 --> 00:27:38,640
Speaker 3: it was people splitting tickets or under voting is not

529
00:27:38,680 --> 00:27:41,120
Speaker 3: something I can speak to. But there definitely was ticket

530
00:27:41,160 --> 00:27:44,240
Speaker 3: splitting there, and there was a lot of obviously ticket

531
00:27:44,280 --> 00:27:46,919
Speaker 3: splitting in other states. I mean, just to name one

532
00:27:46,960 --> 00:27:51,800
Speaker 3: other state not overwhelm listeners, but North Carolina is a

533
00:27:51,840 --> 00:27:57,000
Speaker 3: great example where Democrats won the governor's race in the

534
00:27:57,040 --> 00:28:00,359
Speaker 3: midst of a giant scandal that engulfed the Republican But

535
00:28:00,400 --> 00:28:03,840
Speaker 3: they also want other state races. They won the AG

536
00:28:04,119 --> 00:28:08,200
Speaker 3: race by a surprising margin. They want other state level races.

537
00:28:08,240 --> 00:28:10,679
Speaker 3: They won by a very small margin a race for

538
00:28:10,720 --> 00:28:14,960
Speaker 3: the state Court, and they broke the GOP super majority

539
00:28:15,040 --> 00:28:17,840
Speaker 3: in the state House, which is going to prevent the

540
00:28:17,880 --> 00:28:21,600
Speaker 3: Republicans in twenty twenty five of overriding the vetos of

541
00:28:21,640 --> 00:28:24,000
Speaker 3: the incoming governor, and as you may have seen, the

542
00:28:24,000 --> 00:28:27,480
Speaker 3: Republican is not taking that very well. They're quite there

543
00:28:27,800 --> 00:28:31,240
Speaker 3: this week trying to ram through a bill that would

544
00:28:31,480 --> 00:28:34,840
Speaker 3: effectively gut some of the essential roles of the current

545
00:28:34,840 --> 00:28:38,680
Speaker 3: governor and transferred to Republican authority because they only have

546
00:28:39,040 --> 00:28:41,720
Speaker 3: a few weeks left of being able to use their

547
00:28:41,760 --> 00:28:43,720
Speaker 3: supermajorities and they're trying to make the most of it.

548
00:28:43,920 --> 00:28:47,800
Speaker 1: Yeah, exactly, very strange and interesting. So tell us where

549
00:28:47,800 --> 00:28:49,880
Speaker 1: we should keep our eyes peeled now, talk to us

550
00:28:49,880 --> 00:28:50,600
Speaker 1: about the future.

551
00:28:50,880 --> 00:28:53,160
Speaker 6: Yeah, there's always a lot. It's a lot happening.

552
00:28:53,560 --> 00:28:56,720
Speaker 3: The very first thing to know, if people want to

553
00:28:56,720 --> 00:29:00,160
Speaker 3: know about sort of elections going forward, is that they're

554
00:28:59,920 --> 00:29:03,480
Speaker 3: a special elections happening in January and early twenty twenty

555
00:29:03,520 --> 00:29:08,600
Speaker 3: five in Michigan and Virginia for important seats in the state.

556
00:29:08,560 --> 00:29:09,560
Speaker 5: And the governorship.

557
00:29:09,760 --> 00:29:12,360
Speaker 3: Governorship is going to be in in November, but there

558
00:29:12,360 --> 00:29:15,160
Speaker 3: are races in January, like literally around the corner that

559
00:29:15,280 --> 00:29:18,360
Speaker 3: will decide whether Democrats keep control of the state tenets

560
00:29:18,520 --> 00:29:20,840
Speaker 3: in Virginia and Michigan, and those those are very important.

561
00:29:21,000 --> 00:29:23,840
Speaker 3: And then yes, obviously the big one in twenty twenty

562
00:29:23,840 --> 00:29:27,600
Speaker 3: five is the governor's race in the state of Virginia.

563
00:29:27,680 --> 00:29:29,560
Speaker 3: That is going to be an open race because the

564
00:29:29,600 --> 00:29:32,760
Speaker 3: governor is not allowed to run for reelection. Democrats will

565
00:29:32,800 --> 00:29:36,520
Speaker 3: want to take that governorship back, which would give potentially

566
00:29:36,560 --> 00:29:39,480
Speaker 3: give them control they state government there that they lost

567
00:29:39,880 --> 00:29:42,680
Speaker 3: a few years ago. That's really a big one to

568
00:29:42,800 --> 00:29:45,360
Speaker 3: watch in Virginia. And the other the second big sort

569
00:29:45,400 --> 00:29:48,080
Speaker 3: of state wide race in twenty twenty five is the

570
00:29:48,120 --> 00:29:51,880
Speaker 3: Supreme Court race in Wisconsin. So that's actually happening in April,

571
00:29:52,280 --> 00:29:54,640
Speaker 3: and I already talked a bunch about why that court

572
00:29:54,680 --> 00:29:57,520
Speaker 3: has been so important in the past. A liberal justice

573
00:29:57,680 --> 00:30:01,520
Speaker 3: is not running for reelection in April, and conservutives have

574
00:30:01,560 --> 00:30:04,240
Speaker 3: a shot at flipping the court back to the right

575
00:30:04,360 --> 00:30:08,360
Speaker 3: in Wisconsin. Expect that to be extremely expensive race. It's

576
00:30:08,360 --> 00:30:10,880
Speaker 3: sort of going to be on its own on the calendar.

577
00:30:10,960 --> 00:30:14,360
Speaker 3: There's nothing around it happening. The stakes are very high

578
00:30:14,800 --> 00:30:19,960
Speaker 3: on abortion rights in Wisconsin, on redistricting in Wisconsin. That's

579
00:30:20,000 --> 00:30:24,160
Speaker 3: really where the next big campaign is likely to be.

580
00:30:24,560 --> 00:30:26,800
Speaker 3: And also, you know, at this point, the US House

581
00:30:26,880 --> 00:30:31,120
Speaker 3: is so tight, we're all that any special election, any retirement,

582
00:30:31,400 --> 00:30:35,640
Speaker 3: any vacancy would just be a huge deal, right because

583
00:30:36,000 --> 00:30:39,760
Speaker 3: if what once it flips, that actually has huge consequences.

584
00:30:39,800 --> 00:30:42,160
Speaker 1: What it has right now, it's good or at least

585
00:30:42,160 --> 00:30:44,760
Speaker 1: it's going to be two seventeen to two fifteen. Right.

586
00:30:45,160 --> 00:30:48,360
Speaker 3: So the results of November fifth were two twenty two,

587
00:30:48,360 --> 00:30:52,240
Speaker 3: two fifteen, and Trump named three people from the Republican

588
00:30:52,240 --> 00:30:54,320
Speaker 3: caucus and then Gates was one of them, and then

589
00:30:54,360 --> 00:30:54,960
Speaker 3: he resigned.

590
00:30:54,960 --> 00:30:56,800
Speaker 6: But is not going to be in the House. It's

591
00:30:56,840 --> 00:30:57,840
Speaker 6: not going to be aged anyway.

592
00:30:58,160 --> 00:31:00,000
Speaker 3: Yes, So that gets us as two seventeen to fifty

593
00:31:00,280 --> 00:31:02,040
Speaker 3: for now until the special elections.

594
00:31:02,360 --> 00:31:05,840
Speaker 1: Just as a reminder to listeners, you can't tie in

595
00:31:05,880 --> 00:31:07,000
Speaker 1: the House of Representatives.

596
00:31:07,040 --> 00:31:07,960
Speaker 5: You tie, you lose.

597
00:31:08,160 --> 00:31:12,280
Speaker 1: So it means that effectively Mike Johnson has a one

598
00:31:12,280 --> 00:31:13,080
Speaker 1: seat majority.

599
00:31:13,280 --> 00:31:15,800
Speaker 3: And at that point it's not just who has won

600
00:31:16,000 --> 00:31:18,800
Speaker 3: or who is in Congress, it's who is sick that

601
00:31:18,880 --> 00:31:22,800
Speaker 3: they who has a wedding to attend in Michigan, who

602
00:31:22,880 --> 00:31:25,280
Speaker 3: has you know, we we already saw that in the

603
00:31:25,320 --> 00:31:29,320
Speaker 3: last few years, where an absence could have huge consequences

604
00:31:29,600 --> 00:31:32,080
Speaker 3: in what's happening. And that's going to be a lot

605
00:31:32,080 --> 00:31:33,640
Speaker 3: more intense in coming months.

606
00:31:33,760 --> 00:31:36,840
Speaker 1: And actually, if you want to get furious, I was

607
00:31:36,880 --> 00:31:39,959
Speaker 1: talking to a member who was saying to me, you know,

608
00:31:40,440 --> 00:31:42,880
Speaker 1: Democrats have a couple of people who haven't been to

609
00:31:42,960 --> 00:31:46,040
Speaker 1: Congress in a while, of coorse, who are actually like

610
00:31:46,200 --> 00:31:48,960
Speaker 1: legitimately sick and who can't get there.

611
00:31:48,920 --> 00:31:51,080
Speaker 5: But who probably should not be in office anymore.

612
00:31:51,160 --> 00:31:54,200
Speaker 1: Now that said, Republicans also have that, But that is

613
00:31:54,280 --> 00:31:55,160
Speaker 1: quite infuriating.

614
00:31:55,920 --> 00:31:58,640
Speaker 3: Yes, I wish I had pulled the median age of

615
00:31:59,360 --> 00:32:00,000
Speaker 3: people in Congress.

616
00:32:00,120 --> 00:32:02,400
Speaker 6: By what you're saying doesn't surprise me.

617
00:32:02,480 --> 00:32:05,560
Speaker 1: Yeah, you know, look there's a Nancy Pelosi eighty tray

618
00:32:06,000 --> 00:32:08,200
Speaker 1: and then there's you know, some of those people are

619
00:32:08,240 --> 00:32:10,840
Speaker 1: not so old, but they are sick and they need

620
00:32:10,880 --> 00:32:12,880
Speaker 1: to leave if they're if they're too sick to get

621
00:32:12,880 --> 00:32:13,640
Speaker 1: to work, you know.

622
00:32:13,920 --> 00:32:17,520
Speaker 3: To also maybe to give a parallel point as to

623
00:32:17,600 --> 00:32:20,160
Speaker 3: how tight the margin is, because we were taught talking

624
00:32:20,200 --> 00:32:23,560
Speaker 3: earlier about re district thing, right, and we redistricting in

625
00:32:23,560 --> 00:32:26,240
Speaker 3: the state of Wisconsin in particular. So let's just talk

626
00:32:26,240 --> 00:32:30,400
Speaker 3: about redistricting in North Carolina for a moment, because the

627
00:32:30,480 --> 00:32:33,560
Speaker 3: exact inverse of what happened in Wisconsin happened in North

628
00:32:33,560 --> 00:32:37,240
Speaker 3: Carolina in twenty twenty two. Republicans flipped that state Supreme

629
00:32:37,280 --> 00:32:41,600
Speaker 3: Court and they struck down a prior ruling that had

630
00:32:43,000 --> 00:32:46,200
Speaker 3: stopped the GOP from passing their own maps. And so

631
00:32:46,320 --> 00:32:50,400
Speaker 3: what happened is that the GOP in North Carolina passed

632
00:32:50,480 --> 00:32:54,720
Speaker 3: new maps for twenty twenty four and that flipped three seats,

633
00:32:54,920 --> 00:32:57,560
Speaker 3: three seats and the margin in the House out of

634
00:32:57,600 --> 00:33:00,800
Speaker 3: the number fifth. If three seats hadn't flipped, the Democrats

635
00:33:00,800 --> 00:33:04,320
Speaker 3: would have been the majority party. So it's just so

636
00:33:04,520 --> 00:33:09,120
Speaker 3: interesting to trace back the current Republican majority not just

637
00:33:09,240 --> 00:33:11,960
Speaker 3: to the new map in North Carolina, but also as

638
00:33:11,960 --> 00:33:14,480
Speaker 3: a result to the state court elections that happen in

639
00:33:14,480 --> 00:33:15,280
Speaker 3: twenty twenty two.

640
00:33:15,560 --> 00:33:16,640
Speaker 6: Now, we don't think.

641
00:33:16,440 --> 00:33:21,760
Speaker 3: About the state court races as that relevant maybe to

642
00:33:21,840 --> 00:33:25,120
Speaker 3: federal politics or to the national politics, but here's a

643
00:33:25,200 --> 00:33:30,000
Speaker 3: case where literally the state level races for this for

644
00:33:30,280 --> 00:33:34,680
Speaker 3: state judges are directly responsible for a new map that

645
00:33:35,160 --> 00:33:37,480
Speaker 3: is directly responsible for who has the majority right now

646
00:33:37,560 --> 00:33:40,360
Speaker 3: in US House. So you know, that really explains maybe

647
00:33:40,360 --> 00:33:43,560
Speaker 3: to people why the coming election in Wisconsin is going

648
00:33:43,600 --> 00:33:46,000
Speaker 3: to be so expensive and why in twenty twenty six,

649
00:33:46,040 --> 00:33:48,240
Speaker 3: you know, you should repay attention to what's happening.

650
00:33:47,880 --> 00:33:50,040
Speaker 6: At the state level in these elections.

651
00:33:50,080 --> 00:33:51,000
Speaker 1: So interesting.

652
00:33:51,400 --> 00:33:53,400
Speaker 5: Thank you for coming on Daniel, I hope.

653
00:33:53,200 --> 00:33:55,320
Speaker 6: You'll come back, of course, thanks for having me.

654
00:33:55,840 --> 00:33:59,880
Speaker 1: That's it for this episode of Fast Politics. Tune in

655
00:34:00,520 --> 00:34:06,000
Speaker 1: every Monday, Wednesday, Thursday and Saturday to hear the best

656
00:34:06,080 --> 00:34:10,359
Speaker 1: minds and politics make sense of all this chaos. If

657
00:34:10,400 --> 00:34:13,440
Speaker 1: you enjoy this podcast, please send it to a friend

658
00:34:13,880 --> 00:34:15,520
Speaker 1: and keep the conversation going.

659
00:34:15,960 --> 00:34:17,080
Speaker 5: Thanks for listening.