WEBVTT - Here's Second Covid Wave We Hoped We Wouldn't See: JHU's Sauer 0:00:01.400 --> 0:00:04.120 Welcome to the Bloomberg Markets Podcast. I'm Paul Sweeney, along 0:00:04.120 --> 0:00:06.240 with my co host of Bonnie Quinn. Every business day 0:00:06.240 --> 0:00:09.280 we bring you interviews from CEOs, A, market pros, and 0:00:09.400 --> 0:00:12.799 Bloomberg experts, along with essential market moving news. Kind the 0:00:12.800 --> 0:00:16.320 Bloomberg Markets Podcast on Apple podcast or wherever you listen 0:00:16.360 --> 0:00:20.599 to podcasts, and on Bloomberg dot com. Let's get straight 0:00:20.600 --> 0:00:24.720 to Lauren sour Johns Hopkins University System, Professor of Emergency Medicine. 0:00:24.960 --> 0:00:28.160 We're getting the numbers out of you know, you're right now, 0:00:28.240 --> 0:00:31.560 Italy recording a record new daily coronavirus cases of just 0:00:31.720 --> 0:00:34.640 more than ten thousand, ten thousand and ten people in Italy. 0:00:34.880 --> 0:00:37.440 On Thursday it was just eight thousand, eight hundred. We 0:00:37.560 --> 0:00:43.120 have England, you know, fighting in terms of Boris Johnson 0:00:43.200 --> 0:00:45.839 telling some of the districts to shut themselves down, places 0:00:45.880 --> 0:00:48.479 like Manchester, you know, really reacting to this. So it's 0:00:48.520 --> 0:00:51.200 it's causing a lot of trouble around the world again, Lauren, 0:00:51.720 --> 0:00:54.160 how much worse is this going to get? Once again? 0:00:55.680 --> 0:00:57.320 You know, I don't think we know, but I think 0:00:57.320 --> 0:00:59.240 all of the signals are indicating that we need to 0:00:59.280 --> 0:01:02.240 be prepared for it to be bad again. Um, even 0:01:02.240 --> 0:01:04.320 in places that we thought we had sort of passed 0:01:04.360 --> 0:01:06.560 the peak. I think a lot of us are starting 0:01:06.600 --> 0:01:08.800 to think that this is the second wave that we've 0:01:08.840 --> 0:01:12.640 been hoping we didn't see, UM, and that some people 0:01:12.640 --> 0:01:15.959 have dismissed as not coming, especially because it's aligning with 0:01:16.000 --> 0:01:20.360 respiratory viruses and more generally so UM, making sure that 0:01:20.360 --> 0:01:22.920 that we have a sense of what cases are COVID cases, 0:01:23.000 --> 0:01:26.360 what cases are flu and RSV cases, and really being 0:01:26.400 --> 0:01:29.080 able to manage those patients appropriately. I think we're going 0:01:29.080 --> 0:01:32.480 to continue to see the numbers take up across the globe. Yeah, 0:01:32.520 --> 0:01:34.560 and you have to worry about hospitals once again, you 0:01:34.600 --> 0:01:37.399 have to worry about senior homes and so on. Boris 0:01:37.440 --> 0:01:39.880 Johnson just saying about an hour ago that he doesn't 0:01:39.880 --> 0:01:42.760 want new national virus lockdowns, and and there's many countries 0:01:42.760 --> 0:01:44.640 that don't. But you do see the likes of France 0:01:44.680 --> 0:01:47.720 imposing curfews and the likes of Ireland saying that you 0:01:47.720 --> 0:01:51.640 can't gather in people's homes anymore. Um. Is that what 0:01:51.640 --> 0:01:55.800 it's going to take? More complete shutdowns? Yeah? I mean 0:01:55.840 --> 0:01:58.360 I don't think anyone wants to see these lockdowns. I 0:01:58.400 --> 0:02:01.880 think that they are really challenging to implement and enforce 0:02:01.960 --> 0:02:05.360 and have can have you know, dramatic impacts on people, 0:02:05.400 --> 0:02:08.560 and particularly on the mental health space, and and the 0:02:08.639 --> 0:02:11.360 idea that they impact the our ability to get people 0:02:11.440 --> 0:02:14.799 back into schools, back into jobs, back into the economy. Um. 0:02:14.840 --> 0:02:19.240 But we did see the efficacy of these control measures 0:02:19.240 --> 0:02:22.040 early in the pandemic, um, you know, and in the 0:02:22.160 --> 0:02:25.920 spring and summer, So they shouldn't be discounted for sure. 0:02:25.960 --> 0:02:28.600 And while I'm sure they'll be applied regionally based on 0:02:28.639 --> 0:02:32.360 the way cases are moving, Um, they we definitely can't 0:02:32.360 --> 0:02:35.799 discount them as a control measure at this point, Lauren. 0:02:36.080 --> 0:02:38.560 You know, after the President got sick and sort of 0:02:38.760 --> 0:02:43.320 you know, basically went on national television and radio for 0:02:43.560 --> 0:02:45.960 sort of four days straight and then appeared at a 0:02:46.200 --> 0:02:47.799 you know, a town hall last night and seemed to 0:02:47.840 --> 0:02:51.560 be in good condition. Does it mean that therapeutics have 0:02:51.639 --> 0:02:54.440 got that good that you could go immediately to hospital 0:02:54.440 --> 0:02:58.200 as soon as you feel symptoms and get these steroids 0:02:58.200 --> 0:03:00.839 and these drugs and be fine four days if you're 0:03:00.880 --> 0:03:03.280 one of the people that receives the virus in this 0:03:03.400 --> 0:03:06.760 for a fairly generic way. Yeah, I don't think that 0:03:06.760 --> 0:03:08.440 that's what it means at all. In fact, I think 0:03:08.560 --> 0:03:11.959 that the president received exceptional care as the president of 0:03:12.000 --> 0:03:15.720 the United States, and I think his case actually highlights, 0:03:16.160 --> 0:03:19.440 UM the disparities of care across the nation, across our nation, 0:03:19.480 --> 0:03:23.040 and across the globe. UM that that many people who 0:03:23.360 --> 0:03:27.600 had been infected with with oars kobe to like him, UM, 0:03:27.600 --> 0:03:29.679 but who are not the President, who don't, who won't 0:03:29.680 --> 0:03:33.760 receive these exceptional standards of care, UM did not do 0:03:33.840 --> 0:03:35.800 as well and continue to not do as well. And 0:03:35.840 --> 0:03:39.160 we still see people dying across the globe every day 0:03:39.200 --> 0:03:42.280 because UM, they don't have this access to care and 0:03:42.280 --> 0:03:45.800 they don't have this exceptional management. But also because it 0:03:45.880 --> 0:03:48.200 may be, you know, a one off case. We can't 0:03:48.240 --> 0:03:50.920 learn anything from a single case. You know, there's so 0:03:50.960 --> 0:03:54.240 many confounding variables in what happened to him and his 0:03:54.360 --> 0:03:57.040 course of treatment and how his case was managed that 0:03:57.120 --> 0:03:59.839 there's no way to infer that it's specific to one 0:04:00.080 --> 0:04:03.680 rug or one experimental therapeutic or one type one element 0:04:03.760 --> 0:04:07.160 of his care. UM, all those things combined probably created 0:04:07.160 --> 0:04:11.000 an environment in which he UM received the best you know, 0:04:11.080 --> 0:04:14.160 had the best possible outcome. Anyone of his stats could 0:04:14.160 --> 0:04:17.479 have expected. Yeah, and I think that bear is repeating. 0:04:17.520 --> 0:04:19.839 And Chris Christie spent a week in the hospital, for example, 0:04:19.920 --> 0:04:21.960 he also got all sorts of drugs that you know, 0:04:22.000 --> 0:04:24.680 we don't know about. Possibly not as well cared for 0:04:24.720 --> 0:04:28.520 as the president, but probably very very closely, you know, 0:04:29.080 --> 0:04:31.159 in terms of the standard. But if you look at 0:04:31.160 --> 0:04:34.120 England right now, we just heard that four thousand, six 0:04:34.160 --> 0:04:37.440 hundred forty seven people were hospitalized and new virus deaths 0:04:37.440 --> 0:04:41.039 were up by one thirty six the day before. So 0:04:41.120 --> 0:04:45.560 people are still dying daily from this virus. I think 0:04:45.560 --> 0:04:50.560 that needs to be underlined constantly. Is there any reduction 0:04:50.839 --> 0:04:56.760 in the fatality rate in terms of who's getting it? Yeah, UM, 0:04:56.800 --> 0:04:59.719 I can't speak to the actually like the specific numbers. 0:04:59.760 --> 0:05:02.480 I think there's a lot of people working on understanding 0:05:02.560 --> 0:05:07.080 how we manage these patients and if mortality is decreasing. Um. 0:05:07.120 --> 0:05:10.880 I haven't seen the you know, the latest data on that, 0:05:11.000 --> 0:05:13.799 but I can say that I think we're getting better 0:05:13.920 --> 0:05:18.760 at managing, UM, how how we manage, how we ventilate, 0:05:18.800 --> 0:05:21.760 how we take care of these patients and so um, 0:05:21.800 --> 0:05:25.560 you know, we are able to get patients out of 0:05:25.600 --> 0:05:28.880 the hospital faster, which is always better. For people. UM, 0:05:28.960 --> 0:05:32.960 we're able to keep people off mechanical ventilation, which demonstrates 0:05:33.000 --> 0:05:36.159 that we're managing their respirations better. So we're learning a 0:05:36.160 --> 0:05:39.360 lot more about the patients and how to manage um 0:05:39.400 --> 0:05:43.159 these respiratory effects and that that always will lead to 0:05:43.200 --> 0:05:45.880 improved outcomes. If you can keep people off mechanical ventilation, 0:05:45.960 --> 0:05:48.320 you know, it's it's always better to keep people from 0:05:48.320 --> 0:05:51.200 being intubated. So I think we are getting better at 0:05:51.360 --> 0:05:54.320 caring for COVID nineteen patients. UM. I don't know if 0:05:54.360 --> 0:05:57.719 we if we can say that we've reduced mortality yet. Um, 0:05:57.839 --> 0:06:01.720 but we ventilate less and we um and we get 0:06:01.760 --> 0:06:04.279 people out of the hospital quicker, Lauren. Really just time 0:06:04.279 --> 0:06:06.479 for yes or no answer. But at the beginning, people 0:06:06.480 --> 0:06:08.960 were discouraged from going to hospital until they really felt 0:06:09.000 --> 0:06:11.240 like it was life and death. Now it seems like 0:06:11.279 --> 0:06:14.080 people are being encouraged to go immediately. What's your advice, 0:06:15.000 --> 0:06:18.840 I would say, get tested. That's step one. So get tested. UM, 0:06:18.880 --> 0:06:21.760 you know your status, and if you're feeling unwell, then 0:06:21.800 --> 0:06:24.920 it's time to call your doctor or go to the hospital. 0:06:24.920 --> 0:06:28.160 If you don't have a primary care doctor. Laurence, thank you. 0:06:28.200 --> 0:06:29.680 We put you on the spot all the time to 0:06:29.720 --> 0:06:33.000 try and give us answers. And we're fully aware that 0:06:33.040 --> 0:06:34.840 you all are learning about this day by day as well, 0:06:34.880 --> 0:06:37.120 and we appreciate that you keep up with all of 0:06:37.160 --> 0:06:40.880 the everything that's going on. Lauren sour Johns Hopkins University, 0:06:40.880 --> 0:06:46.440 Assistant Professor of Emergency Medicine, delighted to welcome kids Juke's 0:06:46.520 --> 0:06:50.279 chief Global effects strategist for Associated General and so much more. 0:06:50.400 --> 0:06:52.960 In fact, that's just the beginning of what he does 0:06:52.960 --> 0:06:56.240 for Associate A General Kit. Let's get straight into it. 0:06:57.080 --> 0:07:00.479 The e C. S vonder Lyon is sending a team 0:07:00.520 --> 0:07:04.039 to London next week to intensify talks. Why why is 0:07:04.080 --> 0:07:07.400 the European Union being so nice if you like, to 0:07:07.440 --> 0:07:10.480 Britain when Boris Johnson gave himself a self imposed deadline 0:07:10.480 --> 0:07:14.440 of yesterday, um I look, I think in the end 0:07:14.880 --> 0:07:18.400 it's in the interest of both parties to get a deal, 0:07:18.680 --> 0:07:21.880 at least a deal, not to add further disruptions to 0:07:21.920 --> 0:07:25.239 their economies. Remember, you know, these are big trading partners 0:07:25.280 --> 0:07:27.200 for the EU as a whole. The UK is about 0:07:27.280 --> 0:07:30.080 number three or number two you know out there in 0:07:30.160 --> 0:07:32.080 terms of number three in terms of overall trade, So 0:07:32.120 --> 0:07:35.960 it's not it's not negligible even for them. It's a 0:07:36.000 --> 0:07:40.160 bigger relationship the other way around by without any doubt 0:07:40.160 --> 0:07:42.120 at all. But so they have an interest in getting 0:07:42.200 --> 0:07:45.680 something over the line. You wouldn't want the negative hit 0:07:45.880 --> 0:07:49.760 from a freeze on trade or a real major disruption 0:07:49.800 --> 0:07:52.600 on trade between the UK and the EU to happen 0:07:53.040 --> 0:07:55.360 in the middle of a pandemic. He wouldn't want to happen, ever, 0:07:55.520 --> 0:07:57.400 But it would be really dumb not to be able 0:07:57.400 --> 0:08:01.200 to get something cobbled together in the middle of a pandemic. Um, 0:08:01.240 --> 0:08:03.440 So I suspect that the EU will feel that they 0:08:03.440 --> 0:08:05.320 have to keep on coming at it and going at it. 0:08:05.360 --> 0:08:08.520 In my fifth suspect, but for all the rhetoric that 0:08:08.560 --> 0:08:12.000 the UK will have to stay at it as well, um, 0:08:12.000 --> 0:08:13.840 trying as hard as it knows how to try to 0:08:13.880 --> 0:08:15.920 make sure it gets you know, a better deal than 0:08:15.920 --> 0:08:18.000 the one that thinks it is inadequate. But but you know, 0:08:18.840 --> 0:08:22.240 clearly it's easy to make a mess of this from here. Yeah, no, absolutely, 0:08:22.280 --> 0:08:24.480 And I'm sure I hear what you're saying. But if 0:08:24.760 --> 0:08:27.680 Europe has already announced to it's sending a team next week, 0:08:27.920 --> 0:08:30.640 then what's the incentive for Boris Johnson to back down 0:08:30.680 --> 0:08:33.040 on anything or to reach some kind of compromise on 0:08:33.120 --> 0:08:35.840 anything before the weekend. I mean you say in your 0:08:35.920 --> 0:08:38.600 note that you say it seems unlikely the UK side 0:08:38.600 --> 0:08:41.760 will walk away. I guess that's something, But it also 0:08:41.800 --> 0:08:44.280 means that the UK doesn't really need to come up 0:08:44.280 --> 0:08:47.680 with some kind of solution. Well the UK, you know, 0:08:47.840 --> 0:08:50.840 I mean sort of. The facts are still that the 0:08:50.920 --> 0:08:54.840 UK has more to lose economically, um, and perhaps has 0:08:55.400 --> 0:08:57.640 you know, look the more difficult job given the starting 0:08:57.640 --> 0:09:00.920 point politically, that that the UK government may have a 0:09:01.000 --> 0:09:05.520 trickier task in terms of selling failure to negotiate something 0:09:05.559 --> 0:09:09.800 sensible to its own supporters. But um, you so the 0:09:09.880 --> 0:09:13.240 UK needs to save face. But the UK also needs 0:09:13.240 --> 0:09:15.880 to limit the economic damage because there's there's no getting 0:09:15.880 --> 0:09:18.079 away from fact that is that is bigger here. In 0:09:18.080 --> 0:09:21.760 that sense, the UK it still doesn't want to just 0:09:21.960 --> 0:09:24.240 walk away, but it does want the European side to 0:09:24.320 --> 0:09:27.880 understand we could. Um, the rest of us are looking 0:09:27.920 --> 0:09:30.280 there saying can you please all get you know, at 0:09:30.320 --> 0:09:33.840 least something that avoids this cliff edge disaster in the 0:09:33.880 --> 0:09:37.000 first quarter of next year. Little send the economy you know, 0:09:37.080 --> 0:09:39.640 straight back into a deep recession again at exactly the 0:09:39.640 --> 0:09:43.040 wrong time. Um, and and maybe that's still possible. I mean, 0:09:43.040 --> 0:09:46.360 I would say my my central assumption is that you know, 0:09:46.440 --> 0:09:48.120 at this point they're going to make a mess of it. 0:09:48.200 --> 0:09:51.240 But um, you know, at least, you know, while they 0:09:51.240 --> 0:09:56.319 still talk, maybe maybe sense prevails somehow. Yeah, Ki explained 0:09:56.360 --> 0:10:00.600 to us why Europe is not happy and why Britain 0:10:00.679 --> 0:10:02.920 is not happy. So on fisheries, for example, it's just 0:10:03.040 --> 0:10:06.120 one one example, but there's also that have a playing field. 0:10:06.160 --> 0:10:10.120 There's also other items on the agenda, and Europe wants 0:10:10.120 --> 0:10:13.480 to make sure that the UK doesn't leave clauses open 0:10:13.640 --> 0:10:15.720 such that it can decide on subsidies in the future 0:10:15.800 --> 0:10:20.880 without Europe's input. I mean that seems reasonable now, Yeah, 0:10:21.000 --> 0:10:23.120 So the I mean, I think this is the nature 0:10:23.240 --> 0:10:25.800 of of all trade deals is they're very complicated in 0:10:25.880 --> 0:10:28.600 terms of people looking forward and trying to prevent someone 0:10:28.640 --> 0:10:30.720 being able to cheat in the future. And part of 0:10:30.760 --> 0:10:33.920 the issue is that after you know, forty five years 0:10:33.920 --> 0:10:36.440 of a free trade area, neither side is very good 0:10:36.440 --> 0:10:39.880 at working out how you untangle it. Equally, the purpose, 0:10:39.920 --> 0:10:41.959 if you like, politically, was to be able to walk 0:10:42.000 --> 0:10:44.839 away from the EU from the UK government's perspective, and 0:10:44.840 --> 0:10:47.840 they're they're not going to interfere in our domestic business, 0:10:47.880 --> 0:10:53.000 so they feel bound to that statement, whereas in practice 0:10:53.240 --> 0:10:57.360 any trade deal involves a compromise on exactly that. Um. 0:10:57.480 --> 0:11:00.280 So again, you know, they have to find the way 0:11:00.320 --> 0:11:02.640 to swallow some pride but get most of what they 0:11:02.640 --> 0:11:05.920 want on both sides. And you know it's whether they 0:11:05.960 --> 0:11:09.080 have the political will to manage that. And of course 0:11:09.080 --> 0:11:11.680 all this is going on as lockdowns continue to increase 0:11:11.679 --> 0:11:14.360 in severity across Europe and in Britain as well, the 0:11:14.360 --> 0:11:17.199 House gatherings even in barred in London at the moment, 0:11:17.200 --> 0:11:21.120 and in other areas obviously across England. Kit what happens 0:11:21.160 --> 0:11:23.679 to Sterling and the euro and this environment, and does 0:11:23.679 --> 0:11:25.760 some of this depend on the dollar and what happens 0:11:25.760 --> 0:11:30.200 with general election here? Um it almost everything depends on 0:11:30.240 --> 0:11:32.760 what happens with the dollar as well. But look, I 0:11:32.840 --> 0:11:35.600 think the market I mean the last you know, I 0:11:35.640 --> 0:11:39.360 threw out a Twitter pole lunchtime today when when Boris 0:11:39.400 --> 0:11:42.360 Johnson made his comments and about sixty four think no 0:11:42.440 --> 0:11:45.040 deal is likely. So the market has something priced in 0:11:45.120 --> 0:11:47.760 for no deal. But if you if you do get 0:11:47.760 --> 0:11:52.440 a walk away, UM, I think we'll see, certainly we'll see, certainly, sir, 0:11:52.600 --> 0:11:56.400 Sterling lose UM five percent or so and more probably 0:11:56.520 --> 0:11:59.520 between five and ten percent against the euro, and the 0:11:59.520 --> 0:12:02.240 euro would lose something against the dollar as well, So 0:12:02.280 --> 0:12:05.120 O cable on that basis if we just walk away 0:12:05.120 --> 0:12:10.079 will be the wrong side of UM pretty quickly. I 0:12:10.120 --> 0:12:12.880 don't think it's you know, Sterling is so beaten up 0:12:12.880 --> 0:12:15.520 and historically so weak at these levels in trade weighted 0:12:15.640 --> 0:12:17.880 terms that I don't think it's it's it's going to 0:12:17.960 --> 0:12:21.000 send it dramatically further than that. I do think that 0:12:20.920 --> 0:12:23.920 the worst story will be, you know, we're we're likely 0:12:23.960 --> 0:12:27.080 to end up in a bad environment with negative rates 0:12:27.080 --> 0:12:30.000 sometime next year of the Bank eng and feels they 0:12:30.000 --> 0:12:33.080 need to do something that's not good for the currency. 0:12:33.559 --> 0:12:37.240 And we are likely to be the worst performer in 0:12:37.360 --> 0:12:39.600 terms of global growth of certainly of the kind of 0:12:39.600 --> 0:12:42.760 the G ten countries on the on the average growth 0:12:42.800 --> 0:12:49.880 of one and there's nothing, there's nothing terribly encouraging in that. Frankly, well, 0:12:50.000 --> 0:12:52.640 we will continue to watch the headlines as they come out. Again, 0:12:52.679 --> 0:12:55.920 it's still Friday, so something might still happen. Before the 0:12:55.920 --> 0:12:58.320 weekend or into next week. Kid, thank you so much 0:12:58.360 --> 0:13:00.880 for joining us this afternoon, London in time, Kitch you 0:13:01.040 --> 0:13:07.480 associated general now very happy to welcome Meshu, senior editor 0:13:07.520 --> 0:13:11.480 at the National Review and for Spoomberg opinion columnist. Mesh 0:13:11.559 --> 0:13:14.160 I want to ask you, obviously about the Scotus hearings 0:13:14.200 --> 0:13:17.200 this week, but first we have to have to mention 0:13:17.440 --> 0:13:20.720 the dueling town halls last night. I wonder if you're 0:13:20.720 --> 0:13:23.120 watching them in split screen and you know what your 0:13:23.200 --> 0:13:28.960 lasting impressions were. Well, I preferred to go to the 0:13:29.000 --> 0:13:34.000 transcript rather than watch it um to to compress the 0:13:34.080 --> 0:13:37.040 time commitment. And I think we got a pretty good 0:13:37.080 --> 0:13:41.560 picture of both of these men and what they're like. 0:13:41.720 --> 0:13:45.560 The voters were able to assess, for example, whether the 0:13:45.640 --> 0:13:48.800 story of cognitive decline that President Trump has been telling 0:13:48.800 --> 0:13:52.719 about Joe Biden UH is accurate or whether it's overdrawn. 0:13:52.800 --> 0:13:56.079 And I think that people could get a good perspective 0:13:56.080 --> 0:13:58.320 on that. And with Trump, we've all seen a lot 0:13:58.400 --> 0:14:02.280 of Trump philosophy years and he was the same as 0:14:02.760 --> 0:14:05.880 as usual. There was there and you know, and that 0:14:06.000 --> 0:14:11.839 includes the combativeness, it includes the conspiracy theories UM and UH, 0:14:11.880 --> 0:14:16.160 and and it includes the uh, the kind of uh 0:14:16.320 --> 0:14:22.320 rambling and disconnected sentences that we've come to expect, and frankly, 0:14:22.360 --> 0:14:25.800 we get a little bit from both of these candidates 0:14:25.360 --> 0:14:29.560 the whole Q and on stuff. Does he not know 0:14:29.760 --> 0:14:31.840 what it is? Is he lying to the public when 0:14:31.880 --> 0:14:33.440 he says he doesn't know what it is, except that 0:14:33.480 --> 0:14:35.840 he knows they battled pedophilia and are very against it, 0:14:35.880 --> 0:14:40.080 as if anyone in the world isn't. Well, you know, 0:14:40.160 --> 0:14:42.880 at a certain point you have to say, given that 0:14:42.960 --> 0:14:47.080 this has come up so frequently, um, maybe it's time 0:14:47.120 --> 0:14:50.880 he learned something about it. You know. The the explanation 0:14:50.960 --> 0:14:55.920 that he gives is not an excuse. And when you, um, 0:14:56.160 --> 0:14:59.120 say you don't know something about it, you don't then 0:14:59.360 --> 0:15:03.880 follow it up with praise, which is what he has done. Um. 0:15:03.880 --> 0:15:07.840 So you know, it's entirely possible that he is ignorant 0:15:07.960 --> 0:15:12.040 of it. But you know, I think at this point 0:15:12.040 --> 0:15:14.880 it's part of his job not to be All right, 0:15:14.920 --> 0:15:16.880 let's move to the course, because it's been a very 0:15:17.000 --> 0:15:20.560 very interesting week in terms of Scota's hearings, but also 0:15:20.800 --> 0:15:23.280 the idea that Democrats will want to maybe make changes 0:15:23.320 --> 0:15:26.560 to the Supreme Court if in fact it becomes more 0:15:27.600 --> 0:15:30.600 plausible for the Democrats to do so. First of all, 0:15:30.640 --> 0:15:33.440 on the hearings, Judge Amy Coney Barrs is all butt 0:15:33.560 --> 0:15:36.240 in at this point, did you learn anything that you 0:15:36.240 --> 0:15:41.520 didn't already know about this candidate for the Supreme Court? Well, 0:15:41.560 --> 0:15:45.600 you know, these hearings are not designed to shed a 0:15:45.640 --> 0:15:51.280 ton of light on the judicial philosophy of the nominees. 0:15:51.400 --> 0:15:54.200 So uh so I can't say that I learned a 0:15:54.240 --> 0:15:57.520 lot in that respect. Um, I did get a good 0:15:57.520 --> 0:16:02.280 picture of somebody who is extraordin nearly adept, who was 0:16:02.400 --> 0:16:06.040 who was pretty quick on her feet, uh and extremely 0:16:06.120 --> 0:16:12.000 knowledgeable about Supreme Court case law, doctrines and so forth. 0:16:12.360 --> 0:16:15.560 This is what we'd expected, um. But but she was 0:16:15.680 --> 0:16:19.760 able to hold her own him, Etcender Feinstein, after asking 0:16:19.760 --> 0:16:23.160 her some tough questions about the Affordable Care Act, for example, 0:16:23.200 --> 0:16:29.280 pronounced herself impressed by Barrett's answers. Yes. And you have 0:16:29.280 --> 0:16:31.800 a great column out on this, Judge Barrett's best ally 0:16:31.800 --> 0:16:34.040 as Ruth Bader Ginsburg, And you point to the fact 0:16:34.040 --> 0:16:36.720 that not answering questions is a bipartisan tradition. But of 0:16:36.760 --> 0:16:38.760 course senators are always within their rights to try and 0:16:38.840 --> 0:16:41.360 change it, or try and you know, at least pressure 0:16:41.640 --> 0:16:45.880 the potential justice and see how they perform under pressure. 0:16:45.920 --> 0:16:47.600 It is, you know, one of the last times you'll 0:16:47.600 --> 0:16:51.680 hear from them publicly speaking like that, except the special 0:16:51.720 --> 0:16:55.920 events and so on. Biden said last night that the 0:16:55.960 --> 0:16:59.760 public with no around election time what the Democrats plan is. 0:16:59.800 --> 0:17:02.440 If they do have a chance to impact the court 0:17:02.480 --> 0:17:05.440 strategy around the country, what do you imagine the Democrats 0:17:05.480 --> 0:17:09.040 will come up with? Is an injustices really something that 0:17:09.080 --> 0:17:12.639 the public will want? So I think Biden has twisted 0:17:12.720 --> 0:17:15.119 himself and not a little bit on this question. So 0:17:15.240 --> 0:17:18.399 last night he said that voters deserved to have his 0:17:18.480 --> 0:17:21.800 answer to it before they voted before election day. But 0:17:21.840 --> 0:17:25.720 of course people are already voting, and Vice President Biden 0:17:25.880 --> 0:17:30.560 certainly knows this. Uh So there's no real good justification 0:17:30.640 --> 0:17:34.360 for waiting except to wait and see what the political 0:17:34.359 --> 0:17:38.040 winds um deliver. I think that there's gonna be a 0:17:38.080 --> 0:17:41.240 lot of interest on the part of the left wing 0:17:41.280 --> 0:17:43.439 of the Democratic Party and expanding the Supreme Court and 0:17:43.440 --> 0:17:46.760 getting more reliable liberals on the bench if they're in 0:17:46.760 --> 0:17:49.240 a position to do that. That is, if Biden wins, 0:17:49.280 --> 0:17:53.120 and if the Democrats have the Senate UM so far 0:17:53.240 --> 0:17:56.320 that has been an unpopular position in the polls. There's 0:17:56.320 --> 0:18:00.320 a pretty long historical tradition of rejecting that kind of gift. 0:18:00.560 --> 0:18:04.560 But Franklin Roosevelt failed at this in the nineteen thirties 0:18:04.600 --> 0:18:08.040 after an election where he won forty forty eight states 0:18:08.480 --> 0:18:12.280 and his party had three quarters of the votes in 0:18:12.359 --> 0:18:15.680 the House and the Senate actually more. Um So, it's 0:18:15.720 --> 0:18:19.000 historically been a pretty fringe idea in a way it's 0:18:19.000 --> 0:18:22.879 been it's been an extreme and unpopular one. Uh So, 0:18:23.200 --> 0:18:26.359 we'll see whether Biden really decides that he wants to 0:18:26.440 --> 0:18:29.280 lead off his first year in office, assuming he wins 0:18:29.760 --> 0:18:33.560 with such an idea. Remess, I can't let you go 0:18:33.600 --> 0:18:35.960 without asking you a little bit about what you're making 0:18:36.000 --> 0:18:38.040 off some of the Senate races around the country. I mean, 0:18:38.080 --> 0:18:43.680 obviously we're watching the Lindsay Graham, you know, very closely 0:18:43.760 --> 0:18:46.240 that race. But also there was a very sort of 0:18:46.359 --> 0:18:50.200 odd and almost funny exchange between Mark Crk and Tommy 0:18:50.280 --> 0:18:53.359 duck Worth for the Illinois seat. What's standing out to 0:18:53.400 --> 0:18:57.080 you and what are you most keeping an eye on? Well, 0:18:57.119 --> 0:19:01.679 I think that we're at a moment air. These Senate 0:19:01.760 --> 0:19:06.760 races have very little independence from the presidential race, and 0:19:07.080 --> 0:19:10.199 the way people vote for the president is likely to 0:19:10.200 --> 0:19:12.200 be the way they vote for the Senate as well. 0:19:12.440 --> 0:19:15.359 So I think that a lot of Republican Senate candidates 0:19:15.359 --> 0:19:18.320 in a lot of states are looking at how the 0:19:18.359 --> 0:19:23.400 president's doing and uh and getting pretty nervous right now. Yeah, 0:19:23.480 --> 0:19:26.760 And of course I mean that duck Worth Kirk thing 0:19:26.840 --> 0:19:29.160 coming up again sort of this cycle, because we're seeing 0:19:29.160 --> 0:19:31.720 a lot of that around the country. And then finally, 0:19:31.840 --> 0:19:34.760 you know Ben sass comments about Trump and what they 0:19:34.800 --> 0:19:37.680 said about the GOP and the election outlook. Did did 0:19:38.160 --> 0:19:39.960 did that mean anything to you? Does it have any 0:19:40.000 --> 0:19:42.560 kind of wider implication or is it just the type 0:19:42.600 --> 0:19:48.399 of chatter that's happening, you know, and say Lincoln projects circles. Well, 0:19:48.440 --> 0:19:54.359 I am sure that Senator Staff was accurately relating his sentiments. 0:19:54.359 --> 0:19:57.560 I think that he felt kind of buttoned up and 0:19:57.760 --> 0:20:01.399 unable to express those kinds of view when he was 0:20:01.480 --> 0:20:06.320 facing the prospect of a Republican primary in Nebraska and 0:20:06.359 --> 0:20:10.560 didn't want to spend pro Trump voters. That once he 0:20:10.840 --> 0:20:14.040 won that primary, I think he's felt more liberated to 0:20:14.359 --> 0:20:19.119 express his views. Remesh, thank you, throwing a lot of 0:20:19.240 --> 0:20:22.040 topics that you want to get all of your opinions 0:20:22.080 --> 0:20:24.280 and your intelligence as we really head to the last 0:20:24.320 --> 0:20:27.080 couple of weeks in this cycle. It's it's a fascinating 0:20:27.119 --> 0:20:29.960 one and each time every four years there's always something 0:20:29.960 --> 0:20:34.240 new that really makes us glued to our media entrepreneurs 0:20:34.560 --> 0:20:37.160 with the National Review and of course at Bloomberg Opinion columnist, 0:20:37.320 --> 0:20:42.280 thank you for joining us on this Friday. Now another 0:20:42.320 --> 0:20:44.159 major story of the day, and for that return to 0:20:44.160 --> 0:20:48.199 George Ferguson of Bloomberg Intelligence. The Boeing Max has been 0:20:48.280 --> 0:20:52.520 judged safe to fly by Europe's aviation regulator. This is 0:20:52.560 --> 0:20:56.639 a serious, serious decision. It's been in the wings, no 0:20:56.840 --> 0:20:59.840 pun intended for a long long time, but it does 0:21:00.280 --> 0:21:02.080 like it might be a bit of a strange time 0:21:02.160 --> 0:21:05.520 to give Boeing the go ahead when account really put 0:21:05.520 --> 0:21:07.840 Max is in the air. Anyway, George, come on in 0:21:07.880 --> 0:21:09.720 and talk to us about this. What are your thoughts 0:21:09.800 --> 0:21:13.919 on the timing of this good morning it Yes, so 0:21:15.160 --> 0:21:18.400 our thoughts are that we actually thought the European regulator 0:21:18.880 --> 0:21:21.840 would come in after the US regulator approved the airplane 0:21:21.840 --> 0:21:25.399 to fly again. But look, I think it's all fine. 0:21:25.400 --> 0:21:30.119 I think it all of the information we're getting out 0:21:30.160 --> 0:21:32.879 of the f a A is that they're very happy 0:21:32.920 --> 0:21:36.480 with the process so far. There's a couple more there's 0:21:36.520 --> 0:21:38.199 a couple more parts of the process. The f a 0:21:38.240 --> 0:21:41.400 has two complete order to reauthorize the MAX to fly. 0:21:42.440 --> 0:21:44.399 But I think it's a it's a nice endorsement for 0:21:44.400 --> 0:21:46.960 the airplane that the Europeans feel it's safe enough to 0:21:47.040 --> 0:21:50.359 fly in their airspace. It looks to us, like you know, 0:21:50.440 --> 0:21:53.159 by the end of the year, early next year, the 0:21:53.280 --> 0:21:55.800 MAX will be clear to fly in two of its 0:21:55.840 --> 0:22:00.240 most important markets, Europe and the US. And so I 0:22:00.240 --> 0:22:02.960 think if you're bowing, this is great news, and we're 0:22:02.960 --> 0:22:04.720 seeing it in the share place right now. Yeah, you 0:22:04.760 --> 0:22:07.320 have to wonder about orders though, and how much they'll 0:22:07.359 --> 0:22:09.880 come back given the environment that we're in with pandemic 0:22:09.880 --> 0:22:13.320