1 00:00:02,520 --> 00:00:13,760 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. This is the Bloomberg 2 00:00:13,840 --> 00:00:17,920 Speaker 1: Surveillance Podcast. Catch us live weekdays at seven am Eastern 3 00:00:18,200 --> 00:00:22,000 Speaker 1: on Apple CarPlay or Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business app. 4 00:00:22,360 --> 00:00:25,680 Speaker 1: Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts, or watch 5 00:00:25,760 --> 00:00:27,120 Speaker 1: us live on YouTube. 6 00:00:27,200 --> 00:00:30,080 Speaker 2: There's always in a given week. Two three, four Research 7 00:00:30,160 --> 00:00:32,800 Speaker 2: reports a stick out. A couple of days ago, George 8 00:00:32,840 --> 00:00:35,880 Speaker 2: Savelli has put out an absolute jewel Deutsche Bank and 9 00:00:36,120 --> 00:00:42,239 Speaker 2: information bursting stereotypes on all that's going on on tariff's 10 00:00:42,320 --> 00:00:46,280 Speaker 2: international dynamics, economics and of course you know the whole 11 00:00:46,320 --> 00:00:49,160 Speaker 2: debate here that we have. He joins us now from 12 00:00:49,200 --> 00:00:51,639 Speaker 2: Deutsche Bank. George, thank you so much for being with us. 13 00:00:52,000 --> 00:00:55,960 Speaker 2: Figure two. No one knows this, including the President of 14 00:00:56,000 --> 00:00:59,360 Speaker 2: the United States. If you take out our addiction to 15 00:00:59,440 --> 00:01:05,520 Speaker 2: Canadian oil and gas, we run a trade surplus with Canada. 16 00:01:08,720 --> 00:01:11,679 Speaker 3: Yes, the US does if you exclude energy. 17 00:01:11,880 --> 00:01:16,280 Speaker 4: And I think one of the challenges in thinking through 18 00:01:16,360 --> 00:01:21,760 Speaker 4: about tariff risks is the economic impact. And if you 19 00:01:21,840 --> 00:01:25,040 Speaker 4: compare the economic impact of tariffs on Canada VERSUS, for example, 20 00:01:25,120 --> 00:01:29,040 Speaker 4: China on the US, it would be far larger because 21 00:01:29,080 --> 00:01:31,200 Speaker 4: Canada has a bigger capacity to retaliate. 22 00:01:31,360 --> 00:01:35,560 Speaker 3: There's a reliance on energy that creates inflation. So the 23 00:01:35,680 --> 00:01:37,520 Speaker 3: market is questioning. 24 00:01:37,160 --> 00:01:40,959 Speaker 4: How much President Trump will go ahead with the tariff 25 00:01:41,000 --> 00:01:42,280 Speaker 4: is threatening on Canada. 26 00:01:42,040 --> 00:01:44,360 Speaker 3: As soon as February first, does the X and it's 27 00:01:44,360 --> 00:01:45,480 Speaker 3: going to be a learning process. 28 00:01:45,680 --> 00:01:49,640 Speaker 2: Does the xxis matter? Is it timing important like they 29 00:01:49,680 --> 00:01:52,440 Speaker 2: want to try and set out or is all in 30 00:01:52,560 --> 00:01:56,440 Speaker 2: one big one or that? Does that matter to George Caravellas. 31 00:01:57,480 --> 00:02:00,880 Speaker 4: I think, well, what matters to me is what impacts 32 00:02:00,880 --> 00:02:03,360 Speaker 4: the market. And if you look at the price action 33 00:02:03,520 --> 00:02:05,320 Speaker 4: this week in the market, what. 34 00:02:05,360 --> 00:02:08,280 Speaker 3: Was interesting and it's something we had warned about. The 35 00:02:08,320 --> 00:02:11,640 Speaker 3: previous week. The market was expecting an immediate tariff announcement. 36 00:02:12,480 --> 00:02:14,640 Speaker 4: You could see it in the risk premium that was 37 00:02:14,680 --> 00:02:17,440 Speaker 4: priced in to the volatility space. You could see the 38 00:02:17,440 --> 00:02:21,399 Speaker 4: inflation break evens. And therefore, when tariffs were not announced 39 00:02:21,400 --> 00:02:25,840 Speaker 4: on the first day of President Trump's new administration, you 40 00:02:26,000 --> 00:02:30,000 Speaker 4: have seen the market squeeze in terms of the doll longs. 41 00:02:30,760 --> 00:02:34,680 Speaker 4: Now we're entering next week with almost the opposite dynamic. 42 00:02:35,040 --> 00:02:38,320 Speaker 4: The market has completely taken out the risk premium of 43 00:02:38,440 --> 00:02:42,160 Speaker 4: potentially mediate tariffs, especially with regard to Canada, and that 44 00:02:42,160 --> 00:02:43,080 Speaker 4: would be a big shock. 45 00:02:44,160 --> 00:02:47,680 Speaker 2: I mean, I figure nine, Paul, this brilliant research report. Folks, 46 00:02:47,680 --> 00:02:49,920 Speaker 2: we protect the copyright of our guests. You're not going 47 00:02:49,960 --> 00:02:52,120 Speaker 2: to get it from me her poud go to Deutsche 48 00:02:52,160 --> 00:02:56,000 Speaker 2: Bank to get the Sarah Ellis research. The US imports 49 00:02:56,120 --> 00:02:59,960 Speaker 2: more oil from Canada than all other countries come. 50 00:03:00,080 --> 00:03:01,160 Speaker 5: But I did not know that. 51 00:03:01,440 --> 00:03:03,960 Speaker 6: I mean, well that's what you get from Crevel Ceabellos, 52 00:03:04,240 --> 00:03:07,960 Speaker 6: so Georgia in your market. In the currency market, how 53 00:03:08,000 --> 00:03:10,680 Speaker 6: have traders been positioning themselves for a world where there 54 00:03:10,760 --> 00:03:13,880 Speaker 6: may be higher trade tariffs, you. 55 00:03:13,840 --> 00:03:16,240 Speaker 7: Know, not just Canon Mexico, but kind of across the board. 56 00:03:18,160 --> 00:03:20,680 Speaker 4: So this is really the key question for the market 57 00:03:20,800 --> 00:03:23,000 Speaker 4: and the big driver this year so far. It's what 58 00:03:23,320 --> 00:03:25,840 Speaker 4: I would call the tariff risk premium. How much of 59 00:03:25,880 --> 00:03:30,240 Speaker 4: that risk premium is priced into the market and traders 60 00:03:30,440 --> 00:03:34,920 Speaker 4: have been positioned for some probability of tariffs going ahead. 61 00:03:35,360 --> 00:03:38,720 Speaker 4: I think what we saw this week was just how 62 00:03:38,760 --> 00:03:42,600 Speaker 4: aggressively people were expecting immediate tariffs, and that is why 63 00:03:42,600 --> 00:03:45,800 Speaker 4: we're seeing some irreversal recent trends. But if you're looking 64 00:03:45,800 --> 00:03:48,920 Speaker 4: at the cumulative amount of tariffs that are priced in, 65 00:03:49,480 --> 00:03:52,880 Speaker 4: especially after the retracements, we've seen this week, you're actually 66 00:03:52,920 --> 00:03:55,760 Speaker 4: not seeing that much. I would say the market is 67 00:03:55,800 --> 00:03:58,160 Speaker 4: that the very lower end, if. 68 00:03:58,000 --> 00:04:00,880 Speaker 3: Not below the lower end of what is a reasonable 69 00:04:00,960 --> 00:04:02,400 Speaker 3: range of tariffs going forward. 70 00:04:02,720 --> 00:04:05,040 Speaker 4: And that's really the reason why we still see the 71 00:04:05,160 --> 00:04:09,720 Speaker 4: risks askewed towards more in terms of dollar strength, because 72 00:04:09,800 --> 00:04:12,840 Speaker 4: the market at the moment, I think is underpricing the 73 00:04:12,920 --> 00:04:15,280 Speaker 4: full extent of tariffs that could materialize. 74 00:04:15,320 --> 00:04:18,880 Speaker 2: In this hour Accrassination on your Friday and YouTube again, 75 00:04:18,960 --> 00:04:22,520 Speaker 2: Subscribe to Bloomberg podcast building each and every day, including 76 00:04:22,600 --> 00:04:25,960 Speaker 2: the weekends. A lot of podcasts watching during the weekends. 77 00:04:26,000 --> 00:04:28,640 Speaker 2: George Sarah ellis with As we continue, he is with 78 00:04:29,880 --> 00:04:32,760 Speaker 2: Deutsche Bain. Coming up, Sarah Hunt. We'll talk equities with. 79 00:04:32,720 --> 00:04:36,760 Speaker 7: Her pot George, is there any reasonable bear case for 80 00:04:36,800 --> 00:04:39,160 Speaker 7: the US dollar? I just don't see it out there, 81 00:04:39,200 --> 00:04:40,599 Speaker 7: and I haven't for the longest time. 82 00:04:43,000 --> 00:04:44,719 Speaker 3: You mean a reasonable case for the dollar to. 83 00:04:44,680 --> 00:04:46,520 Speaker 7: A weekend or just yes and yeah, just kind of 84 00:04:46,520 --> 00:04:47,960 Speaker 7: a bearish case for the US dollar. 85 00:04:49,440 --> 00:04:53,040 Speaker 3: So I can give you a historical example. 86 00:04:53,160 --> 00:04:57,560 Speaker 4: When President Trump started his first administration, the market was 87 00:04:57,560 --> 00:05:00,600 Speaker 4: also expecting dollar strength, and you saw two things happening. 88 00:05:01,320 --> 00:05:05,440 Speaker 4: You saw any progress on fiscal and tax reform stall 89 00:05:05,560 --> 00:05:07,640 Speaker 4: for nine months as the administration was. 90 00:05:07,560 --> 00:05:10,680 Speaker 3: Trying through peal Obamacare, and you saw a big upswing 91 00:05:10,720 --> 00:05:11,560 Speaker 3: in global growth. 92 00:05:11,920 --> 00:05:13,839 Speaker 4: I think if you saw a repetition of that, the 93 00:05:13,920 --> 00:05:16,920 Speaker 4: dollar would most certainly weaken. But what we're seeing this 94 00:05:17,000 --> 00:05:21,560 Speaker 4: time is the administration picking up pace. The immediate focus is. 95 00:05:21,440 --> 00:05:26,040 Speaker 3: On tax cuts, it is on trade, and the global. 96 00:05:25,720 --> 00:05:29,040 Speaker 4: Environment looks a lot more challenging, so we I can 97 00:05:29,080 --> 00:05:31,479 Speaker 4: always build a varish case for the dollar, but from 98 00:05:31,520 --> 00:05:34,200 Speaker 4: my perspective, I think the hurdle is much higher than 99 00:05:34,240 --> 00:05:35,600 Speaker 4: what it was in twenty nineteen. 100 00:05:35,680 --> 00:05:37,600 Speaker 2: The news flow is extraordinary Jersey. They got to do 101 00:05:37,640 --> 00:05:42,640 Speaker 2: an audible here just in the last twelve hours, eighteen hours. 102 00:05:43,200 --> 00:05:47,080 Speaker 2: The president is reverted in Fed speak, and I think 103 00:05:47,120 --> 00:05:50,920 Speaker 2: indirectly in currency speak to what we knew Donald Trump 104 00:05:50,960 --> 00:05:53,720 Speaker 2: to be, which is he likes lower interest rates. I mean, 105 00:05:53,720 --> 00:05:56,600 Speaker 2: he's a real estate guy, which real estate guy Paul 106 00:05:56,680 --> 00:06:00,760 Speaker 2: doesn't like lower interest rates. Introduce him to me sometime, George. 107 00:06:00,760 --> 00:06:05,039 Speaker 2: The president wants lower interest rates from Chairman Powell. I 108 00:06:05,120 --> 00:06:09,279 Speaker 2: believe he stated at Davos he is going to lower interstrates. 109 00:06:09,440 --> 00:06:12,840 Speaker 2: Let's just begin with that. With your Cambridge economics, can 110 00:06:12,880 --> 00:06:16,320 Speaker 2: a government leader force interst rates lower? 111 00:06:19,240 --> 00:06:23,680 Speaker 4: If the FED is independent and this institutional independence is maintained, 112 00:06:24,760 --> 00:06:28,840 Speaker 4: then the answer is no. The transmission would work via 113 00:06:28,839 --> 00:06:31,200 Speaker 4: FED appointments. But then if you're looking at the FED 114 00:06:31,240 --> 00:06:34,760 Speaker 4: appointment process, which requires Center confirmation, and also the number 115 00:06:34,760 --> 00:06:37,800 Speaker 4: of FED governors that are up for reappointment. 116 00:06:37,440 --> 00:06:38,320 Speaker 3: There's not that many. 117 00:06:39,080 --> 00:06:41,200 Speaker 4: But what I would say, going back to the question 118 00:06:41,520 --> 00:06:45,359 Speaker 4: around the bare case for the dollar, the single biggest 119 00:06:45,440 --> 00:06:49,400 Speaker 4: risk would be a compromise of FED independence. We certainly 120 00:06:49,480 --> 00:06:52,480 Speaker 4: don't see that from our perspective, because I think the 121 00:06:52,520 --> 00:06:55,239 Speaker 4: administration is well aware that if that was to happen, 122 00:06:55,440 --> 00:06:57,120 Speaker 4: it would lead to all sorts of other. 123 00:06:57,000 --> 00:07:00,720 Speaker 3: Bad things happening. For example, heels going up rather. 124 00:07:00,520 --> 00:07:02,680 Speaker 2: Than down right in the back end exactly. 125 00:07:03,839 --> 00:07:06,560 Speaker 4: But I think it's for that reason that the commentary 126 00:07:06,600 --> 00:07:11,560 Speaker 4: is likely to remain rather than genuinely impacting and government 127 00:07:11,600 --> 00:07:12,520 Speaker 4: what we saw last. 128 00:07:12,320 --> 00:07:15,960 Speaker 2: Time, and Governor Lusetti will straighten that out. One final question, 129 00:07:16,040 --> 00:07:20,800 Speaker 2: George Saravellos, the president wants a week dollar. He's been 130 00:07:20,880 --> 00:07:24,840 Speaker 2: that way since before he was president as well. How 131 00:07:24,920 --> 00:07:29,080 Speaker 2: far are we from the tension of the Plaza accord 132 00:07:29,120 --> 00:07:32,400 Speaker 2: where there was a primal scream for a week dollar. 133 00:07:33,880 --> 00:07:37,080 Speaker 4: So you raise a very interesting question, Tom, because by 134 00:07:37,120 --> 00:07:39,880 Speaker 4: this time in the first administration, we already had the 135 00:07:39,920 --> 00:07:43,320 Speaker 4: Secretary Treasury nominee Unusin talking down the dollar, we had 136 00:07:43,400 --> 00:07:46,840 Speaker 4: tweets from President Trump talking down the dollar. And this 137 00:07:47,000 --> 00:07:49,880 Speaker 4: time what I'm seeing is something very different. I'm seeing 138 00:07:49,920 --> 00:07:53,400 Speaker 4: Scott Besson in the testimony in the Senate testimony hearing 139 00:07:53,880 --> 00:07:56,680 Speaker 4: talk about the importance of the dollar as a reserve currency. 140 00:07:57,280 --> 00:07:59,640 Speaker 4: I'm not seeing Trump talk about the dollar all that 141 00:07:59,760 --> 00:08:01,800 Speaker 4: much at all. In fact, I think he hasn't even 142 00:08:01,840 --> 00:08:05,840 Speaker 4: mentioned anything since the Bloomberg interview he gave way for 143 00:08:06,000 --> 00:08:08,960 Speaker 4: the election. I think the reason behind that is the 144 00:08:09,000 --> 00:08:13,240 Speaker 4: administration is realizing a strong dollar helps keep US inflation down, 145 00:08:13,840 --> 00:08:16,160 Speaker 4: and therefore, from that perspective, it is one of the 146 00:08:16,200 --> 00:08:18,320 Speaker 4: few things that I think is different from the first 147 00:08:18,360 --> 00:08:21,960 Speaker 4: administration that they're actually less keen on a week dollar 148 00:08:22,200 --> 00:08:23,800 Speaker 4: to help US inflation come down. 149 00:08:23,880 --> 00:08:26,840 Speaker 2: Gotta un Jorge Servell's congratulations for the research piece of 150 00:08:26,840 --> 00:08:30,800 Speaker 2: the week, just absolutely outstanding. Mister Serrave ellis at Deutsche Bank. 151 00:08:36,080 --> 00:08:39,680 Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast catch us Live 152 00:08:39,720 --> 00:08:42,880 Speaker 1: weekday afternoons from seven to ten am Eastern. Listen on 153 00:08:43,000 --> 00:08:46,640 Speaker 1: Applecarplay and Android Otto with the Bloomberg Business app, or 154 00:08:46,800 --> 00:08:48,280 Speaker 1: watch US live on YouTube. 155 00:08:48,360 --> 00:08:52,000 Speaker 2: Sir Hunt joins US now and the equity markets. Are 156 00:08:52,080 --> 00:08:56,800 Speaker 2: you surprised at the day after day bid of the market. 157 00:08:57,320 --> 00:09:00,000 Speaker 8: I'm not really because what we're looking at right now. 158 00:08:59,840 --> 00:09:02,360 Speaker 9: Is again all the optimism and people are putting the 159 00:09:02,360 --> 00:09:04,959 Speaker 9: pessimism or the things that might go wrong aside. 160 00:09:04,559 --> 00:09:07,720 Speaker 8: Because of earnings or Washington, so Washington. 161 00:09:07,880 --> 00:09:10,640 Speaker 9: But earnings have helped, right, So earnings also a lot 162 00:09:10,960 --> 00:09:12,520 Speaker 9: banks that banks. 163 00:09:12,200 --> 00:09:14,520 Speaker 8: Needed to come in with good numbers. They did. If 164 00:09:14,559 --> 00:09:15,840 Speaker 8: we can see earnings come in good. 165 00:09:15,840 --> 00:09:18,839 Speaker 7: That's going to go well, because it seems like twenty 166 00:09:18,880 --> 00:09:21,520 Speaker 7: twenty five, if this market's going to move higher after 167 00:09:21,559 --> 00:09:24,280 Speaker 7: two years of twenty percent plus returns and a FED, 168 00:09:24,320 --> 00:09:26,720 Speaker 7: that's probably not going to be that active in twenty 169 00:09:26,760 --> 00:09:29,800 Speaker 7: twenty five in terms of lowering rates. Earnings really have 170 00:09:29,880 --> 00:09:33,040 Speaker 7: to drive the story here. Are you confident in a eleven, 171 00:09:33,080 --> 00:09:35,240 Speaker 7: twelve thirteen percent growth in SMP earnings? 172 00:09:36,360 --> 00:09:38,520 Speaker 8: It depends a lot. Again, Now, what's going to happen 173 00:09:38,600 --> 00:09:39,280 Speaker 8: with technology? 174 00:09:39,360 --> 00:09:39,520 Speaker 10: Right? 175 00:09:39,559 --> 00:09:41,440 Speaker 9: You can look at the energy sector and go okay, 176 00:09:41,480 --> 00:09:43,439 Speaker 9: oil prices are higher. That's going to help earnings for 177 00:09:43,480 --> 00:09:45,440 Speaker 9: the SMP as a whole, where last year it was 178 00:09:45,480 --> 00:09:48,200 Speaker 9: it was a detriment. There are going to be areas 179 00:09:48,240 --> 00:09:50,360 Speaker 9: where you need to see that growth coming through because 180 00:09:50,360 --> 00:09:52,560 Speaker 9: the multiple where the multiple is, it's hard to see 181 00:09:52,600 --> 00:09:54,920 Speaker 9: multiple expansion. You need to see the earnings grow into 182 00:09:54,960 --> 00:09:56,960 Speaker 9: that so that you can see that market move higher. 183 00:09:57,400 --> 00:09:59,840 Speaker 7: One of the sectors that has been, if I guess 184 00:10:00,200 --> 00:10:04,120 Speaker 7: Trump trade kind of sectors financials. The expectation that the 185 00:10:04,160 --> 00:10:07,680 Speaker 7: regulatory environment's going to ease if nothing else that would 186 00:10:07,679 --> 00:10:10,160 Speaker 7: be beneficial. Do you ascribe to that? Have you guys 187 00:10:10,160 --> 00:10:12,640 Speaker 7: stepped up your exposure to financials? 188 00:10:13,280 --> 00:10:15,520 Speaker 9: I wouldn't say that we've necessarily stepped it up because 189 00:10:15,559 --> 00:10:18,880 Speaker 9: we had representation there and basically a lot more in 190 00:10:18,920 --> 00:10:20,640 Speaker 9: the larger banks, because I think there may be some 191 00:10:20,720 --> 00:10:22,600 Speaker 9: issues with the regional banks. But I think that just 192 00:10:22,600 --> 00:10:24,000 Speaker 9: the fact that you may see an M and a 193 00:10:24,040 --> 00:10:26,920 Speaker 9: boom after you've got a change at the FTC might 194 00:10:27,000 --> 00:10:28,880 Speaker 9: help on the financial sector because you have a lot 195 00:10:28,880 --> 00:10:31,840 Speaker 9: of smaller banks. I think that what the market is 196 00:10:31,840 --> 00:10:34,559 Speaker 9: looking for is a change in the tone, both from 197 00:10:34,600 --> 00:10:37,920 Speaker 9: a regulatory standpoint and from an M and a standpoint. 198 00:10:37,960 --> 00:10:40,960 Speaker 7: I guess with this new administration there's been I think 199 00:10:41,120 --> 00:10:44,840 Speaker 7: a palpable sense of economic optimism. I'm not sure it's 200 00:10:44,880 --> 00:10:47,160 Speaker 7: animal spirits is the right word, but people feel like 201 00:10:47,600 --> 00:10:50,200 Speaker 7: this is an administration, a government that is pro business, 202 00:10:50,240 --> 00:10:53,760 Speaker 7: pro growth. If that's in fact a sense, is this 203 00:10:54,040 --> 00:10:57,160 Speaker 7: maybe a time for smaller caps mid caps to actually 204 00:10:57,200 --> 00:10:57,679 Speaker 7: do well? 205 00:10:57,880 --> 00:10:59,640 Speaker 9: I think it absolutely is, and I think that, I 206 00:10:59,640 --> 00:11:00,960 Speaker 9: mean that's it's going to depend a on on what 207 00:11:01,000 --> 00:11:03,320 Speaker 9: happens to the rest of the underlying economic data, because 208 00:11:03,320 --> 00:11:05,520 Speaker 9: for small caps to do well, you need to see 209 00:11:05,559 --> 00:11:07,800 Speaker 9: a good economy. The fact that the FED is likely 210 00:11:07,840 --> 00:11:09,600 Speaker 9: to be backing off a bit here is tougher for 211 00:11:09,640 --> 00:11:11,640 Speaker 9: small caps because higher rates are tougher for them as 212 00:11:11,640 --> 00:11:13,920 Speaker 9: a group. But I think that that could be If 213 00:11:13,920 --> 00:11:15,240 Speaker 9: the US does do well. 214 00:11:15,160 --> 00:11:16,480 Speaker 8: Small and min should do well as well. 215 00:11:16,520 --> 00:11:20,960 Speaker 2: Not once, but twice this weekend, I got grilled on 216 00:11:21,160 --> 00:11:24,320 Speaker 2: international stocks, and I, you know, I went back and 217 00:11:24,320 --> 00:11:27,400 Speaker 2: looked at my Sarah Hunt notes and the basic idea 218 00:11:27,720 --> 00:11:30,960 Speaker 2: is they're completely correlated to week dollar. Am I right 219 00:11:31,000 --> 00:11:31,240 Speaker 2: on that? 220 00:11:32,000 --> 00:11:34,480 Speaker 9: I think it is much bigger driver than what's going 221 00:11:34,520 --> 00:11:36,360 Speaker 9: on for them economically, and one of the reasons that 222 00:11:36,400 --> 00:11:39,000 Speaker 9: you would think they should be less strong is because 223 00:11:39,000 --> 00:11:41,760 Speaker 9: what's going on in Europe is not fantastic economically, But 224 00:11:41,800 --> 00:11:44,440 Speaker 9: there definitely is a currency trade off there, and I 225 00:11:44,440 --> 00:11:46,120 Speaker 9: think that it's sort of like when the US when 226 00:11:46,200 --> 00:11:48,800 Speaker 9: interest rates go higher, the tech group goes lower when 227 00:11:48,800 --> 00:11:49,760 Speaker 9: the dollar gets weaker. 228 00:11:50,000 --> 00:11:53,199 Speaker 2: Yeah, how do you digest? And I don't wanted to 229 00:11:53,240 --> 00:11:56,360 Speaker 2: talk about Apple specifically unless you want to, But there's 230 00:11:56,440 --> 00:12:00,560 Speaker 2: like rumors ONNG somebody's this, or that there's a shortfall. 231 00:12:01,040 --> 00:12:05,080 Speaker 2: There are these research geeks measuring things on whatever product. 232 00:12:05,440 --> 00:12:07,920 Speaker 2: Do you lean over the desk and listen to those people, 233 00:12:08,040 --> 00:12:11,760 Speaker 2: read those people or is it just tangential noise. 234 00:12:12,200 --> 00:12:13,680 Speaker 9: I think it has to be part of what you're 235 00:12:13,679 --> 00:12:16,239 Speaker 9: looking at altogether, because you don't want to be surprised 236 00:12:16,280 --> 00:12:18,200 Speaker 9: by some sort of a shortfall, but the market doesn't 237 00:12:18,200 --> 00:12:21,000 Speaker 9: seem to be enormously surprised. I think it really depends 238 00:12:21,000 --> 00:12:22,440 Speaker 9: on what else is going on underneath. 239 00:12:22,440 --> 00:12:23,000 Speaker 8: For something like. 240 00:12:22,960 --> 00:12:26,439 Speaker 9: Apple, specifically, that service revenue and that recurring revenue is 241 00:12:26,480 --> 00:12:28,960 Speaker 9: a bigger part of what people look at in the story. 242 00:12:29,000 --> 00:12:30,280 Speaker 8: The hardware is still important. 243 00:12:30,520 --> 00:12:33,319 Speaker 9: So if there's a shortfall and it's not continuous, that's 244 00:12:33,360 --> 00:12:34,319 Speaker 9: probably not as big a deal. 245 00:12:34,440 --> 00:12:36,760 Speaker 2: We're talking apple. Can I be rude, Paul? Are you're 246 00:12:36,800 --> 00:12:39,000 Speaker 2: going to load the boat on an apple? There's a pullback. 247 00:12:39,800 --> 00:12:41,600 Speaker 9: I'm definitely going to make sure that if I was 248 00:12:41,840 --> 00:12:44,720 Speaker 9: underweight or not participating and I like the story, I 249 00:12:44,720 --> 00:12:45,680 Speaker 9: would be adding to it. 250 00:12:45,720 --> 00:12:49,040 Speaker 8: Here. We had a participation already, so I mean. 251 00:12:49,080 --> 00:12:50,600 Speaker 7: She owns Yeah, that's fine. 252 00:12:50,640 --> 00:12:53,880 Speaker 2: That's that's Baron's talk. That's the way Mario Gabelli talks. 253 00:12:53,960 --> 00:12:54,760 Speaker 3: Nothing wrong with that. 254 00:12:55,280 --> 00:12:57,280 Speaker 7: We mentioned the FED before, probably a little bit more 255 00:12:57,360 --> 00:13:00,320 Speaker 7: quiescent this year than maybe we initially thought think the 256 00:13:00,320 --> 00:13:01,240 Speaker 7: FED will do this year. 257 00:13:02,440 --> 00:13:03,880 Speaker 9: There's going to be that's going to depend on a 258 00:13:03,920 --> 00:13:05,959 Speaker 9: lot of different factoris. But right now I think the 259 00:13:06,000 --> 00:13:09,160 Speaker 9: impetus is to do nothing. It's just sort of wait 260 00:13:09,240 --> 00:13:11,520 Speaker 9: and pause. We'll see what happens next week. But I 261 00:13:11,559 --> 00:13:13,839 Speaker 9: think that you're going to need to see data on 262 00:13:13,880 --> 00:13:16,960 Speaker 9: the inflation side come in reasonably good for the FED 263 00:13:17,000 --> 00:13:18,800 Speaker 9: to be able to cut more just because things are 264 00:13:18,800 --> 00:13:21,120 Speaker 9: going well enough that it seems contradictory to say, we're 265 00:13:21,160 --> 00:13:23,079 Speaker 9: raising our inflation out and we're cutting. 266 00:13:22,840 --> 00:13:28,000 Speaker 2: Rates, But aren't these rates nominal or real quote unquote normal. 267 00:13:28,800 --> 00:13:31,640 Speaker 2: We have this great conversation with Greg Peters of p JAP. 268 00:13:32,440 --> 00:13:34,600 Speaker 2: I mean, a lot of the younger people are going, 269 00:13:34,760 --> 00:13:36,600 Speaker 2: oh gee, it's so weird. 270 00:13:37,040 --> 00:13:37,920 Speaker 8: Is it. 271 00:13:37,920 --> 00:13:39,920 Speaker 9: It's not so weird on the back end, on the 272 00:13:40,080 --> 00:13:41,920 Speaker 9: long end, but on the short end that seems a 273 00:13:41,960 --> 00:13:44,680 Speaker 9: little high relative to other things. So that could be 274 00:13:44,720 --> 00:13:47,080 Speaker 9: the argument of saying I can bring the short end 275 00:13:47,120 --> 00:13:48,960 Speaker 9: down a little bit because we want to see that 276 00:13:49,040 --> 00:13:51,440 Speaker 9: steep ree yield curve and that more normalized yield curve. 277 00:13:51,559 --> 00:13:54,920 Speaker 9: But yes, after a decade of zero, go back and look, 278 00:13:55,160 --> 00:13:57,120 Speaker 9: rates at five percent are almost. 279 00:13:56,760 --> 00:13:59,360 Speaker 8: In a low relative to history, especially on the long end. 280 00:14:00,040 --> 00:14:03,240 Speaker 2: Tearing up Paul Out on YouTube today. On live chat, 281 00:14:03,800 --> 00:14:07,800 Speaker 2: he used the word quis like when you're court sighted 282 00:14:07,960 --> 00:14:11,160 Speaker 2: duke and the first quarter doesn't go well. Now do 283 00:14:11,160 --> 00:14:13,839 Speaker 2: you look there, and who's the freshman start calem. 284 00:14:13,760 --> 00:14:17,160 Speaker 3: H Cooper flag Connor, Yeah, Cooper Cooper, Cooper Flagg. 285 00:14:17,360 --> 00:14:18,760 Speaker 2: So do you go Cooper you're quiet? 286 00:14:18,920 --> 00:14:21,160 Speaker 7: Yeah, that's not gonna happen. I'd get thrown out of 287 00:14:21,160 --> 00:14:21,560 Speaker 7: my seats. 288 00:14:21,640 --> 00:14:23,520 Speaker 3: Quies, what's happened to me? 289 00:14:24,400 --> 00:14:27,680 Speaker 2: You know, Lisa, he's ruined yep to others to it, Sarah, 290 00:14:27,680 --> 00:14:29,760 Speaker 2: thank you so much, Sarah Han on short notice today 291 00:14:29,760 --> 00:14:34,400 Speaker 2: in the equity markets, as we really readjust without buying Saxon. 292 00:14:34,680 --> 00:14:38,600 Speaker 1: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Listen live each weekday 293 00:14:38,640 --> 00:14:41,680 Speaker 1: starting at seven am Eastern on Apple Corplay and Android 294 00:14:41,680 --> 00:14:44,720 Speaker 1: Auto with the Bloomberg Business App. You can also listen 295 00:14:44,800 --> 00:14:48,040 Speaker 1: live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station, 296 00:14:48,600 --> 00:14:51,600 Speaker 1: Just say Alexa Play Bloomberg eleven thirty. 297 00:14:51,680 --> 00:14:57,760 Speaker 2: Calem Anderson for years was definitive in international economics. You 298 00:14:57,800 --> 00:15:00,760 Speaker 2: get upset, you throw out a twelve page wonder Oh damn, 299 00:15:00,800 --> 00:15:03,080 Speaker 2: I gotta read this. He was that good. 300 00:15:03,080 --> 00:15:04,800 Speaker 3: He's teemed up. 301 00:15:04,680 --> 00:15:10,080 Speaker 2: With Thomas Harr of the Denmark Central Bank to write 302 00:15:10,120 --> 00:15:16,160 Speaker 2: a lovely, short focused treatise on your fear of inflation. 303 00:15:16,800 --> 00:15:20,040 Speaker 2: Doctor Hart joins us right now, chief Economists, head of 304 00:15:20,080 --> 00:15:25,160 Speaker 2: all of economics for the Central Bank of Denmark's National Bank. 305 00:15:25,720 --> 00:15:30,880 Speaker 2: Is this nineteen sixties inflation? Is this the inflation that 306 00:15:31,000 --> 00:15:35,000 Speaker 2: our parents or some of us older lived, Doctor Herr. 307 00:15:36,040 --> 00:15:38,920 Speaker 10: Well, thanks a lotor for being on the show, Tom, 308 00:15:38,960 --> 00:15:41,680 Speaker 10: and no, I don't think it is. So. I think 309 00:15:41,760 --> 00:15:43,760 Speaker 10: what happened, and that's what we talk a lot about 310 00:15:43,800 --> 00:15:47,560 Speaker 10: at length in the book, is there was some extraordinary shock, 311 00:15:47,640 --> 00:15:51,280 Speaker 10: and there was extraordinary you can say, fiscal and monetary policy. 312 00:15:51,320 --> 00:15:54,800 Speaker 10: A lot of differences between the different regions we describe 313 00:15:54,840 --> 00:15:58,440 Speaker 10: both the US, Europe and Asia. But that happened. 314 00:15:58,640 --> 00:15:59,840 Speaker 2: But what was the key. 315 00:15:59,720 --> 00:16:03,920 Speaker 10: Difference between compared to the sixties and seventies was, for example, 316 00:16:03,920 --> 00:16:06,840 Speaker 10: that inflacing expectations did not rise to the same extent, 317 00:16:07,280 --> 00:16:09,440 Speaker 10: and therefore that was one of the key reasons why 318 00:16:09,520 --> 00:16:13,720 Speaker 10: inflacing back down. Clearly there are a lot of uncertainties 319 00:16:13,720 --> 00:16:14,920 Speaker 10: out there have to talk about that. 320 00:16:15,600 --> 00:16:18,800 Speaker 2: The heart of the matter, in the fear of every 321 00:16:18,920 --> 00:16:23,120 Speaker 2: sentence of Jerome Powers press conference, is the fear of 322 00:16:23,280 --> 00:16:28,400 Speaker 2: central banks unanchored. Are we threatened that we could be 323 00:16:28,560 --> 00:16:31,280 Speaker 2: unanchored in these tumultuous times? 324 00:16:33,040 --> 00:16:35,480 Speaker 10: I think, I mean all central banks are monitoring this 325 00:16:35,760 --> 00:16:38,480 Speaker 10: extremely closely and clearly. When you look at the last 326 00:16:38,520 --> 00:16:40,920 Speaker 10: and that's what the book is about. The twenty twenty one, 327 00:16:41,040 --> 00:16:44,840 Speaker 10: twenty two bursts of inflation. We did see on the 328 00:16:44,880 --> 00:16:47,600 Speaker 10: short term inplaced expectations that they write somewhat, but the 329 00:16:47,680 --> 00:16:52,040 Speaker 10: longer term still was so you can say surprisingly or 330 00:16:52,240 --> 00:16:56,560 Speaker 10: at least noteworthy, resilient. But we are monitoring this extremely 331 00:16:56,560 --> 00:16:59,320 Speaker 10: closely to see whether there are any signs of dangers, 332 00:16:59,480 --> 00:17:02,080 Speaker 10: but so far they are not in my view, And 333 00:17:02,200 --> 00:17:03,800 Speaker 10: that's also what we talk about in the book. 334 00:17:05,000 --> 00:17:05,359 Speaker 1: To us. 335 00:17:05,480 --> 00:17:08,760 Speaker 7: The discussion these days, just in the last a week 336 00:17:08,840 --> 00:17:13,280 Speaker 7: or so here in the US, it has been about tariffs. Tariffs, teriffs. 337 00:17:13,880 --> 00:17:18,000 Speaker 7: From your perspective, what is their impact on inflation? How 338 00:17:18,040 --> 00:17:19,359 Speaker 7: do you think about that relationship? 339 00:17:20,160 --> 00:17:22,080 Speaker 10: Now? I think there is a difference between whether you 340 00:17:22,080 --> 00:17:24,040 Speaker 10: look at it from a US perspective or whether you 341 00:17:24,080 --> 00:17:26,120 Speaker 10: look at it from a world perspective. But because one 342 00:17:26,160 --> 00:17:28,119 Speaker 10: of the point we're actually making in the book is 343 00:17:28,160 --> 00:17:30,720 Speaker 10: that inflation is to a very large extent of global phenomena. 344 00:17:31,280 --> 00:17:33,359 Speaker 10: But I would say, and that's always the danger of 345 00:17:33,400 --> 00:17:35,600 Speaker 10: saying this time is different. But I think if you 346 00:17:35,600 --> 00:17:38,360 Speaker 10: look at the tariffs issue, I think it's very difficult 347 00:17:38,400 --> 00:17:40,680 Speaker 10: to not see it as at least short term somewhat 348 00:17:40,680 --> 00:17:43,560 Speaker 10: inflationary for the US, and by that way also some 349 00:17:43,600 --> 00:17:45,879 Speaker 10: of the other things which could come out of the 350 00:17:45,880 --> 00:17:48,399 Speaker 10: new administration. But I would say in terms of for 351 00:17:48,440 --> 00:17:50,600 Speaker 10: the rest of the world, I would say less so, 352 00:17:51,160 --> 00:17:53,640 Speaker 10: because what it could be, you can say, a negative 353 00:17:53,680 --> 00:17:56,680 Speaker 10: supply shop for the US in terms of tariffs, will 354 00:17:56,760 --> 00:18:00,520 Speaker 10: be a negative demand shop for europe nation, and therefore 355 00:18:00,560 --> 00:18:03,040 Speaker 10: I would say the spillo of that in terms of 356 00:18:03,080 --> 00:18:05,760 Speaker 10: the information area, it's very very uncertain. Of course, also 357 00:18:05,920 --> 00:18:08,960 Speaker 10: depends on what happens to the dollar, but I would 358 00:18:09,000 --> 00:18:11,280 Speaker 10: think that it would be more limited in terms of 359 00:18:11,400 --> 00:18:13,480 Speaker 10: the global spilows from that. That would be so in 360 00:18:13,480 --> 00:18:14,440 Speaker 10: twenty one twenty. 361 00:18:14,160 --> 00:18:17,000 Speaker 2: Two, Thomas Hard, I would be remiss if I didn't 362 00:18:17,000 --> 00:18:23,280 Speaker 2: pull an audible here for American commuters those on YouTube nationwide. 363 00:18:24,040 --> 00:18:27,720 Speaker 2: The Bank of Denmark rights heard on all the research 364 00:18:27,840 --> 00:18:31,040 Speaker 2: capabilities of Greenland, and I don't want to get into 365 00:18:31,080 --> 00:18:34,160 Speaker 2: a debate about who's going to end up with Greenland here, 366 00:18:34,280 --> 00:18:37,359 Speaker 2: but I do want to ask simply, what's the number 367 00:18:37,400 --> 00:18:41,520 Speaker 2: one thing in the Danish Central Banks research on Greenland 368 00:18:41,880 --> 00:18:45,080 Speaker 2: that you would like to convey to our American audience. 369 00:18:46,680 --> 00:18:49,320 Speaker 10: I mean, we do some ananosis on Greenland. We will 370 00:18:49,359 --> 00:18:52,520 Speaker 10: actually quite quite soon come out with a new analysis 371 00:18:52,560 --> 00:18:55,800 Speaker 10: on Greenland and that you can look out for. I 372 00:18:55,840 --> 00:18:57,520 Speaker 10: think it would be out in a couple of months, 373 00:18:57,800 --> 00:19:01,720 Speaker 10: just published from the Central Banks, purely on the economic 374 00:19:01,840 --> 00:19:04,920 Speaker 10: out roup for Greenland. We're updating this on a quite 375 00:19:04,960 --> 00:19:07,560 Speaker 10: regular basis and that will come out as I said 376 00:19:07,560 --> 00:19:08,520 Speaker 10: in a couple months. 377 00:19:08,280 --> 00:19:10,560 Speaker 2: Time, we'll have to have you back on for that. 378 00:19:11,000 --> 00:19:15,640 Speaker 2: I think maybe Paul Spring and Copenhagen, Thomas Hart, thank 379 00:19:15,680 --> 00:19:19,919 Speaker 2: you so much. Congratulations on your book with Callum Anderson 380 00:19:19,960 --> 00:19:23,280 Speaker 2: the inflation Researchers. We greatly appreciate it. Today, doctor Herr 381 00:19:23,760 --> 00:19:27,000 Speaker 2: is with the Denmark Central Bank. 382 00:19:32,960 --> 00:19:36,880 Speaker 1: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Listen live each weekday 383 00:19:36,920 --> 00:19:39,920 Speaker 1: starting at seven am Eastern on Apple, Corplay and Android 384 00:19:39,920 --> 00:19:42,920 Speaker 1: Auto with the Bloomberg Business app. You can also watch 385 00:19:43,000 --> 00:19:45,960 Speaker 1: us live every weekday on YouTube and always on the 386 00:19:46,000 --> 00:19:47,080 Speaker 1: Bloomberg terminal. 387 00:19:47,520 --> 00:19:49,440 Speaker 2: The daily look at the front page is the Lisa 388 00:19:49,480 --> 00:19:53,000 Speaker 2: Matteo Moment and now the Yak Report. What are you 389 00:19:53,080 --> 00:19:53,960 Speaker 2: talking about? 390 00:19:54,240 --> 00:19:58,879 Speaker 5: Okay, Kashmir right, the hottest thing, very expensive, beautiful, feels 391 00:19:58,960 --> 00:20:03,160 Speaker 5: nice and soft for a birthday, yes, but forget about 392 00:20:03,200 --> 00:20:05,399 Speaker 5: it because there's a new luxury material that you have 393 00:20:05,520 --> 00:20:08,760 Speaker 5: to be interested in. It's from the Yak Yes, you 394 00:20:08,800 --> 00:20:09,480 Speaker 5: were talking about it. 395 00:20:09,520 --> 00:20:10,239 Speaker 7: What the heck is then? 396 00:20:10,400 --> 00:20:10,520 Speaker 2: Right? 397 00:20:10,600 --> 00:20:10,760 Speaker 4: Right? 398 00:20:10,800 --> 00:20:13,640 Speaker 5: It's for men. Oh, okay, it's a cattle. They known 399 00:20:13,680 --> 00:20:14,480 Speaker 5: for loud grunting. 400 00:20:14,560 --> 00:20:14,679 Speaker 7: Right. 401 00:20:14,720 --> 00:20:17,520 Speaker 5: They could probably eat a little Kashmir goat, but it's 402 00:20:17,600 --> 00:20:20,520 Speaker 5: less expensive. The Wallstreet Journal points it out. It's still soft, 403 00:20:20,920 --> 00:20:23,440 Speaker 5: not as soft as cashmere, but it has a little 404 00:20:23,480 --> 00:20:26,520 Speaker 5: bit of a manly touch to it, so it's tough 405 00:20:26,640 --> 00:20:28,720 Speaker 5: yet tender at the same time. 406 00:20:28,880 --> 00:20:29,520 Speaker 8: So it has that. 407 00:20:29,720 --> 00:20:31,119 Speaker 2: This is a skirt. 408 00:20:31,280 --> 00:20:32,639 Speaker 3: Yes, it could be, it could be. 409 00:20:32,880 --> 00:20:36,440 Speaker 7: Maybe I'm looking at the American trench call yak shirt 410 00:20:36,480 --> 00:20:38,000 Speaker 7: two and forty nine dollars. 411 00:20:38,080 --> 00:20:42,600 Speaker 5: Wow, compared to what cashmere should run you almost nine 412 00:20:42,680 --> 00:20:43,280 Speaker 5: hundred bucks. 413 00:20:43,520 --> 00:20:43,760 Speaker 3: Yep. 414 00:20:43,880 --> 00:20:46,760 Speaker 7: The Todd Snyder knit cashmere over shirt nine hundred and 415 00:20:46,800 --> 00:20:49,800 Speaker 7: ninety eight dollars. So Yak is the I guess it's 416 00:20:49,800 --> 00:20:52,120 Speaker 7: just a pedestrian man's Kashmir. 417 00:20:52,800 --> 00:20:55,199 Speaker 5: But they're saying, well, I don't know if it's from Tibet, 418 00:20:55,320 --> 00:20:58,399 Speaker 5: but they're saying that it offers this like conversational piece 419 00:20:58,520 --> 00:21:00,320 Speaker 5: because you're at a party and you can say, hey, 420 00:21:00,400 --> 00:21:01,720 Speaker 5: my shirt's made from Yak. 421 00:21:02,720 --> 00:21:05,680 Speaker 8: No it doesn't work, No, No, all right, marks. 422 00:21:06,440 --> 00:21:07,520 Speaker 3: I'm trying. I'm trying. 423 00:21:07,840 --> 00:21:08,159 Speaker 8: Okay. 424 00:21:08,440 --> 00:21:10,560 Speaker 5: President's Trump moving back into the White House. He sent 425 00:21:10,560 --> 00:21:13,879 Speaker 5: the DC luxury home market. It's on this buying spree 426 00:21:13,960 --> 00:21:16,920 Speaker 5: right now because more people want to be his neighbor. 427 00:21:17,040 --> 00:21:20,439 Speaker 5: So you have business leaders, new members of Congress, wealthy 428 00:21:20,440 --> 00:21:23,800 Speaker 5: political appointees. They're all scooping up these like multimillion dollar 429 00:21:23,840 --> 00:21:26,880 Speaker 5: properties in DC and some of those surrounding neighborhoods. So 430 00:21:26,920 --> 00:21:30,200 Speaker 5: I'll give you an example December Canter Fitzgerald CEO Howard Lutnik, 431 00:21:30,400 --> 00:21:32,760 Speaker 5: he's the President's pick for Commerce Secretary. He set a 432 00:21:32,840 --> 00:21:36,000 Speaker 5: record for DC. He paid twenty five million dollars for 433 00:21:36,080 --> 00:21:38,960 Speaker 5: a home there. Also on the hunt, you have Treasury 434 00:21:39,000 --> 00:21:40,399 Speaker 5: Secretary Nowminee Scott Bessen. 435 00:21:40,520 --> 00:21:41,760 Speaker 8: He's looking for a home there. 436 00:21:41,800 --> 00:21:44,320 Speaker 5: But the real estate agents they're just saying that these 437 00:21:44,320 --> 00:21:47,160 Speaker 5: are like big ticket deals. That's really taking off faster 438 00:21:47,280 --> 00:21:48,840 Speaker 5: than in any prior administration. 439 00:21:49,000 --> 00:21:51,800 Speaker 7: You know, the DC metro area there were eighty seven 440 00:21:51,880 --> 00:21:54,439 Speaker 7: home sales about five million dollars last year compared with 441 00:21:54,480 --> 00:21:57,280 Speaker 7: fifty three and twenty twenty three, and sixteen in twenty 442 00:21:57,280 --> 00:21:57,760 Speaker 7: twenty six. 443 00:21:57,800 --> 00:22:00,240 Speaker 5: So the price we're just scoring, we're going up because 444 00:22:00,240 --> 00:22:02,400 Speaker 5: of that, because people want to be over to Georgetown. 445 00:22:03,000 --> 00:22:06,000 Speaker 5: Georgetown there you go is. 446 00:22:06,040 --> 00:22:07,639 Speaker 2: Like eight million dollars to get it. 447 00:22:07,760 --> 00:22:13,679 Speaker 5: You know, I I what was their university? Check that 448 00:22:13,720 --> 00:22:17,080 Speaker 5: one out. So if you have an old iPhone with 449 00:22:17,200 --> 00:22:20,440 Speaker 5: TikTok installed on it, people are paying you big. 450 00:22:20,359 --> 00:22:21,680 Speaker 10: Money for this. 451 00:22:21,720 --> 00:22:24,720 Speaker 5: Okay, yes, The reason because is the app is still 452 00:22:24,760 --> 00:22:27,840 Speaker 5: not on the App Store. So when TikTok went down 453 00:22:27,880 --> 00:22:30,919 Speaker 5: and went black and on Saturday store, it's not in 454 00:22:30,960 --> 00:22:33,520 Speaker 5: the app store, so people started deleting it once it 455 00:22:33,560 --> 00:22:36,080 Speaker 5: went down on Saturday. But now they can't get it 456 00:22:36,119 --> 00:22:39,119 Speaker 5: back up because it's not on the App Store and 457 00:22:39,160 --> 00:22:41,520 Speaker 5: they can't. They can't get it and they need. 458 00:22:41,280 --> 00:22:43,480 Speaker 7: Their to TikTok's still dark. 459 00:22:43,960 --> 00:22:47,439 Speaker 5: No, it's not dark, it's back up and running. You 460 00:22:47,480 --> 00:22:48,920 Speaker 5: can't get it if you want to go in the 461 00:22:48,960 --> 00:22:52,400 Speaker 5: app store. Old if you buy it, can I tell 462 00:22:52,440 --> 00:22:55,800 Speaker 5: you how much they're going for. They're selling a Facebook Marketplace, 463 00:22:55,880 --> 00:23:00,880 Speaker 5: poshmark eBay three thousand dollars. Some one guy even said 464 00:23:00,880 --> 00:23:03,000 Speaker 5: he paid five seven hundred dollars. 465 00:23:03,119 --> 00:23:05,160 Speaker 7: Well, if that's your business, you know, if that's your 466 00:23:05,160 --> 00:23:09,119 Speaker 7: business being an influencer or content creator, you got to be. 467 00:23:09,119 --> 00:23:09,479 Speaker 2: There, right. 468 00:23:09,560 --> 00:23:12,600 Speaker 5: If you deleted it, then then you're stock. But people 469 00:23:12,600 --> 00:23:14,320 Speaker 5: are saying, you know what, don't do it because they 470 00:23:14,320 --> 00:23:17,359 Speaker 5: can have some spyware in there. You could, you know, 471 00:23:17,440 --> 00:23:20,560 Speaker 5: be in trouble. They're saying that there are safer options. 472 00:23:20,560 --> 00:23:22,720 Speaker 5: You can go to web browsers. They still have it 473 00:23:22,800 --> 00:23:25,399 Speaker 5: on there. Reddit people and Redder are saying there's like 474 00:23:25,400 --> 00:23:27,720 Speaker 5: a workaround to the app. There's always some kind of 475 00:23:27,720 --> 00:23:29,920 Speaker 5: way around, but it's a good way to make money 476 00:23:29,920 --> 00:23:32,399 Speaker 5: if you have an old iPhone with TikTok Lisa. 477 00:23:32,119 --> 00:23:34,720 Speaker 2: But tay you, thank you so much. On newspaper Report Today. 478 00:23:35,040 --> 00:23:39,840 Speaker 1: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast, available on Apple, Spotify, 479 00:23:39,960 --> 00:23:43,760 Speaker 1: and anywhere else you get your podcasts. Listen live each 480 00:23:43,800 --> 00:23:47,600 Speaker 1: weekday seven to ten am Easter and on Bloomberg dot Com, 481 00:23:47,760 --> 00:23:51,560 Speaker 1: the iHeartRadio app, tune In, and the Bloomberg Business app. 482 00:23:51,880 --> 00:23:54,960 Speaker 1: You can also watch us live every weekday on YouTube 483 00:23:55,280 --> 00:23:57,280 Speaker 1: and always on the Bloomberg terminal