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Speaker 1: Good morning.

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Speaker 2: I'm Nathan Hager and I'm Karen Moscow. Here are the

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Speaker 2: stories we're following today.

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Speaker 1: We begin with the first major winter storm to hit

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Speaker 1: the East Coast so far this season. Let's get the

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Speaker 1: very latest on that with Bloomberg meteorologist Rob Carol and

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Speaker 1: Rob Nathan.

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Speaker 3: The weekend storm is going to be worse to the

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Speaker 3: north and west of the district in Baltimore, and also

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Speaker 3: north and west of New York City and north and

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Speaker 3: west of Boston. The major cities are going to see

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Speaker 3: some mixing with rain that that's going to hold down

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Speaker 3: the accumulations. But it's the areas to the north and

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Speaker 3: west that are going to do quite well where it

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Speaker 3: stays all snow. Three to five inches possible north and

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Speaker 3: west of the district in Baltimore, while north and west

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Speaker 3: of New York City as much as five to eight

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Speaker 3: inches will fall. We could see as much as five

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Speaker 3: to ten inches of snow north and west of Boston

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Speaker 3: during the storm.

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Speaker 1: Okay, Rob, So when do you expect this wintry weather

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Speaker 1: is going to end.

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Speaker 3: Storm's going to wind down during the evening and overnight

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Speaker 3: hours in the district in Baltimore. In New York city.

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Speaker 3: It comes to an end Sunday afternoon the Boston area.

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Speaker 3: I will see it ending late Sunday night early Monday morning,

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Speaker 3: and we should see quite a bit of an improvement

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Speaker 3: weatherwise into Monday of next week.

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Speaker 1: Okay, Rob, Carolyn, thanks for that. We'll be checking back

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Speaker 1: with you for more on this East coast winter storm

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Speaker 1: throughout the day.

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Speaker 2: Mowe now turned to the crucial jobs are poored for

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Speaker 2: the month of December. Nathan It's forecast a show one

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Speaker 2: hundred and seventy five thousand jobs were added a last month,

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Speaker 2: and we get more from Bloomberg's Michael McKee.

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Speaker 4: Wall Street goes into today's jobs report expecting strength in

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Speaker 4: hiring and wages. That was not what the Fed was

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Speaker 4: expecting a few months ago. The central bankers want job

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Speaker 4: growth of about one hundred thousand a month and unemployment

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Speaker 4: in the fours to signal an easing of labor market

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Speaker 4: inflation pressures. Instead, they're likely to get a continuing conundrum,

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Speaker 4: a strong labor market but falling inflation, making it hard

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Speaker 4: to know the best path for interest rates. They will

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Speaker 4: probably focus on the composition of jobs. Some analysts say

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Speaker 4: job growth should be concentrated in low wage sectors like healthcare,

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Speaker 4: assistants and restaurants, and that will be the sign the

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Speaker 4: Fed wants that the economy is slowing. McKee, Bloomberg Radio.

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Speaker 1: All right, Mike, thanks for the options market. It's been

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Speaker 1: a buzz ahead of the jobs report. There is a

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Speaker 1: large parish wager underway on yields rising to four point

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Speaker 1: one five percent by the end of the day. That

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Speaker 1: would mark the biggest one day rise in tenure yields

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Speaker 1: since late March. It would be a further retrenchment for

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Speaker 1: treasuries following last year's furious two month rally. In checking

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Speaker 1: the tenure right now, it is at four point zero

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Speaker 1: three percent.

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Speaker 4: Well, Nathan.

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Speaker 2: Rates are also in focus overseas. Traders are pairing bets

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Speaker 2: on cuts from the European Central Bank. Let's go to

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Speaker 2: London and get the latest from Bloomberg's Ewen pots Hore Youwen.

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Speaker 5: Karen, and Nathan. It's the first time since mid December

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Speaker 5: that traders are betting on fewer than six quarter point

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Speaker 5: rate reductions from the ECB. At the end of last year,

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Speaker 5: the market was pricing as much as one hundred and

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Speaker 5: seventy four basis points of cuts. That number has now

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Speaker 5: slipped blow one hundred and fifty basis points and key

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Speaker 5: data this morning, shining more lights on the inflation pitcher.

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Speaker 5: You're area CPI coming in at two point nine percent

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Speaker 5: in the year to December. That's a higher number than

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Speaker 5: the previous month as energy subsidies expire in a number

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Speaker 5: of countries. In London, you and pot Splomberg Radio.

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Speaker 1: All right, you and thank you. Now we turned to

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Speaker 1: the latest developments in the Middle East. Secretary of State

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Speaker 1: Antony Blincoln is returning to the region, his fourth trip

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Speaker 1: since the October seventh attack on Israel. Bloomberg Zamie Morris

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Speaker 1: reports from Washington.

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Speaker 6: There is a risk the war between Israel and Hamas

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Speaker 6: can spread into a broader regional conflict. This trip is

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Speaker 6: part of US efforts to prevent that. Secretary Blincoln will

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Speaker 6: travel to Turkey, Jordan, Cotter, the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, Egypt,

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Speaker 6: and Israel. State Department spokesman Matthew Miller says they don't

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Speaker 6: expect some of these conversations to be easy.

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Speaker 7: We want to prevent the conflict from spreading, but part

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Speaker 7: of that means that people need to stop taking strikes

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Speaker 7: against our soldiers, and if they take strikes against our soldiers,

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Speaker 7: we're going to do what we need to protect ourselves.

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Speaker 6: Groups backed by Iran have escalated attacks across Iraq, Syria, Lebanon,

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Speaker 6: and Yemen and armed forces in a rocker also warning

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Speaker 6: of a quote dangerous escalation after a US right killed

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Speaker 6: a senior commander in an Iran backed militia in Washington,

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Speaker 6: Amy Morris, Bloomberg Radio.

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Speaker 2: All right, Amy, thanks. Meanwhile, the Islamic State group has

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Speaker 2: claimed responsibility for the two explosions that killed almost one

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Speaker 2: hundred people in Iran. The attacks risked inflaming tensions further

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Speaker 2: in the Middle East, with Iran saying it had been

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Speaker 2: targeted because of its stands on Israel. Bloomberg Henry Meyer

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Speaker 2: looks at the impact of the Islamic State taking responsibility

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Speaker 2: for the attacks.

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Speaker 8: It's significant in the sense that it reduces the risks

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Speaker 8: of a more confrontation between Israel and Iran. Iran had

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Speaker 8: said that the bloss with the work of people who

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Speaker 8: were trying to punish it for its stance on the

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Speaker 8: Israeli offensive in Gaza. And you know, obviously any suspicion

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Speaker 8: of Israeli involvement could have proved extremely explosive.

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Speaker 2: And Bloomberg Henry Meyer notes US officials said from the

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Speaker 2: start the attacks had the hallmark of a group such

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Speaker 2: as Islamic State.

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Speaker 1: Back here in the US, Karen, there's more fallout over

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Speaker 1: the resignation of former Harvard president Claudine Gay. The Reverend

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Speaker 1: Al sharped and led a protest at Bill Ackman's Manhattan

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Speaker 1: offices yesterday. The civil rights activist says the billionaire investors

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Speaker 1: campaign against Gay is a blow to the diversity, equity

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Speaker 1: and inclusion movement. Gay stepped down as Harvard's first black

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Speaker 1: president this week in a backlash over her handling of

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Speaker 1: campus antisemitism and accusations of plagiarism.

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Speaker 2: Meantime, Nathan Business Insider is reporting Bill Lackman's wife, Nary Auxman,

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Speaker 2: plagiarized multiple sections of her doctoral dissertation at MIT. Acman

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Speaker 2: responded to the report in a post on X, writing,

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Speaker 2: you know you struck a chord when they go after

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Speaker 2: your wife. Time now for a look at some of

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Speaker 2: the other stories making news around the world. For that,

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Speaker 2: we're joined by Bloomberg's Amy Morris. Amy, Good morning, Good morning, Karen.

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Speaker 6: Residents in the small town of Perry, Iowa, held a

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Speaker 6: vigil last night, hours after a gunman opened fire at

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Speaker 6: the local high school, killing a sixth grader and wounding

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Speaker 6: four other students in the school's principal, Andrea Meyer, is

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Speaker 6: a two thousand and four alumna at the school, and

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Speaker 6: she spoke at last night's vigil green rally around our survivors,

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Speaker 6: our community, our teachers, our first responders, and we're going

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Speaker 6: to show them what we've shown them every day for

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Speaker 6: as long as I have.

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Speaker 9: Known that we appreciate them, enjoy them, respect them, and

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Speaker 9: dare I say love them.

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Speaker 6: The suspect, identified as seventeen year old Dylan Butler, a

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Speaker 6: student at Perry High School, also died of an apparent

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Speaker 6: self inflicted gunshot wound. Classes are canceled throughout the school

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Speaker 6: district for today. Florida Governor Ronda Santis and former UN

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Speaker 6: Ambassador Nicky Haley held back to back CNN town halls

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Speaker 6: in Iowa last night as they fight to be primary

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Speaker 6: GOP presidential challenger to Donald Trump, who already has a

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Speaker 6: huge lead in the polls. DeSantis called Haley a phony

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Speaker 6: who is quote playing for voters who are not even

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Speaker 6: core Republicans. I'm the only one that has a chance

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Speaker 6: to beat Trump and win the general election.

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Speaker 1: Nicki Haley can't get conservative voters. She's the darling of

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Speaker 1: the never trumpers.

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Speaker 6: While in New Hampshire, Nikki Haley said of the primary process, quote,

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Speaker 6: Iowa starts at New Hampshire corrects it. So she responded

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Speaker 6: to criticism about that comment during CNN's town hall in Iowa.

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Speaker 2: We're going to continue to be here.

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Speaker 1: I mean, I've told people get used to this face,

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Speaker 1: and I've been here.

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Speaker 10: Over and over again.

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Speaker 1: But if I didn't love Iowa, I wouldn't keep coming

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Speaker 1: to Iowa.

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Speaker 6: While they did take jabs at each other, Haley and

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Speaker 6: Desantas also focused their attacks on front runner Donald Trump,

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Speaker 6: and next week will be a busy one for Trump.

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Speaker 6: Bloomberg's Nancy Lyons.

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Speaker 10: Reports Donald Trump has two major court hearings next week.

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Speaker 10: One of them is in Washington on his claim of

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Speaker 10: immunity from charges he overturned the twenty twenty election that's

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Speaker 10: set for January ninth, Then two days later, planning to

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Speaker 10: attend the closing arguments in Manhattan that's for the New

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Speaker 10: York civil trial against him and his sprawling real estate company.

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Speaker 10: Days after that, the nominating process begins with the January

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Speaker 10: fifteenth Iowa CAUCUSUS. Then a day after that, a civil

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Speaker 10: defamation case against Trump begins in New York in which

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Speaker 10: Ejing Carroll is seeking to million dollars in damages. It's

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Speaker 10: unknown if Trump will be attending that trial in Washington.

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Speaker 10: Nancy lyons Bloomberg Radio Global.

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Speaker 6: News twenty four hours a day and whenever you want

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Speaker 6: it with Bloomberg News Now. I'm Amy Morris, and this

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Speaker 6: is Bloomberg Karen.

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Speaker 2: All right, Amy, thanks soby to bring in news throughout

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Speaker 2: the day right here on Bloomberg Radio. But now, as

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Speaker 2: Amy said, you can get the latest news on demand

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Speaker 2: whenever you want it. Subscribe to Bloomberg News Now. You

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Speaker 2: can get the latest headlines right at the click of

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Speaker 2: a button. Get informed on your schedule. You can listen

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Speaker 2: and subscribe to Bloomberg News Now on the Bloomberg Business

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Speaker 2: app Bloomberg dot Com, but also apples, Spotify, and anywhere

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Speaker 2: else you get your podcasts. Time now for the Bloomberg

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Speaker 2: Sports update. Here's John stash Hour John Karn.

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Speaker 11: What a game in San Francisco, battle of the last

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Speaker 11: two NBA champions. The Warriors had an eighteen point lead

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Speaker 11: on the fourth quarter on the Nuggets, and then Denver

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Speaker 11: closed the game on a twenty five to four run

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Speaker 11: and he won at one thirty to one twenty seven

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Speaker 11: thanks to Kolo Jokins thirty four points, ten assists, nine rebounds.

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Speaker 11: He hit the game tying shot and then after a

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Speaker 11: Steph Curry turnover, he hit the game winner, a forty

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Speaker 11: footer that he banked in at the buzzer. Milwaukee won

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Speaker 11: at San Antonio won twenty five to one twenty one.

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Speaker 11: This was the first time that Jannis, sent to the

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Speaker 11: Compo won against the guy that many field plays like,

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Speaker 11: Giannis Victor Wembinama. Yanna scored forty four points. Wem bin

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Speaker 11: Yama scored twenty seven. Ricky Rubio, retiring at age thirty three,

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Speaker 11: twelve years and the NBA, played for four teams, most

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Speaker 11: recently Cleveland, who bought out his contract. He was a

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Speaker 11: professional player in Spain at the age of fourteen. Bruins

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Speaker 11: lost at home to Pittsburgh six to five. Sydney Crosby

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Speaker 11: wont it for the Penguin the power play goal in

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Speaker 11: the third period. The Red Sox traded Chris Sale to Atlanta.

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Speaker 11: He just got a two year extension with the Braves

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Speaker 11: for thirty eight million dollars, despite all the injuries he's

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Speaker 11: had in recent years. Week eighteen in the NFL starts tomorrow.

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Speaker 11: Nine teams have Clint playoff spots. Five spots still up

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Speaker 11: for drafts. Buffalo, Jacksonville, Tampa Bay, and Green Bay are

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Speaker 11: in with Week eighteen victories. The winner tomorrow night, patried Houston,

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Speaker 11: and Indianapolis is in the playoffs. Pittsburgh tomorrow needs a

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Speaker 11: win and then a Buffalo loss on Sunday night. John

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Speaker 11: Stashwer Bloomberg Sports.

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Speaker 3: From coast to coast, from New York to San Francisco,

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Speaker 3: Boston to Washington, DC, nationwide on Syrias Exam.

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Speaker 1: The Bloomberg Business app, and Bloomberg dot Com. This is

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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Daybreak. Good morning, I'm Nathan Hager.

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Speaker 6: Well.

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Speaker 1: The first weekend of twenty twenty four is going to

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Speaker 1: bring the East Coast the first major winter storm we've

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Speaker 1: seen in quite a while, actually, so let's bring in

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Speaker 1: Bloomberg beedrologist Rob Carolyn to help us get set for

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Speaker 1: what's coming. What you're looking at, Rob, the first accumulating

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Speaker 1: snow of the season for lots of us.

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Speaker 3: It's taken a time for winter to get going, but

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Speaker 3: it's going to get going now with Gangbusters Nathan storm

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Speaker 3: coming out of the lower Mississippi River Valley is going

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Speaker 3: to come up the along the East coast during the weekend,

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Speaker 3: and it's going to bring us eisenble snowfall to many

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Speaker 3: of the suburban locations around the major cities in the

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Speaker 3: mid Atlantic and Northeast. This isn't a huge snowstorm for

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Speaker 3: the District of Baltimore, for New York City or Boston

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Speaker 3: because the ocean is still fairly warm water temperatures than

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Speaker 3: in the forties. That influence is going to mean that

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Speaker 3: we see Boston and New York City, and especially Washington

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Speaker 3: and Baltimore mixing with and changing the rain at times.

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Speaker 3: But once you get inland away from that influence to

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Speaker 3: the ocean, there's going to be some sizeable snowfalls from

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Speaker 3: say Frederick, Maryland, all the way on up through the

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Speaker 3: suburbs north and west of New York City, and then

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Speaker 3: well north and west of Boston. There could be some

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Speaker 3: spots to get over ten inches of snow from this storm.

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Speaker 1: No kidding. So, like you said, it's been a while

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Speaker 1: since we've had a major winter storm along the East coast.

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Speaker 1: I mean, or are we ready for this? I think

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Speaker 1: we're ready. I mean we've had a lot of practice.

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Speaker 3: Anybody over the age of fifteen has seen, you know,

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Speaker 3: a number of snowstorms in their lifetime. But yeah, last winter,

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Speaker 3: I think the deepest snow we saw in the Boston

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Speaker 3: area was like three and a half inches in February.

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Speaker 3: So I think the big problem is going to be

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Speaker 3: pe will not used to driving in it because it's

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Speaker 3: been over a year. The good news is it's falling

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Speaker 3: on a Saturday night and a Sunday in many areas,

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Speaker 3: so their traffic won't be as bad. We don't have

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Speaker 3: school in session, so that'll be helpful. But people are

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Speaker 3: definitely going to have to take some time, particularly in

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Speaker 3: those areas where there's going to be that transition from

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Speaker 3: a mixture of rain and snow to snow, because that

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Speaker 3: snow will be heavier and wetter. Therefore it's more slippery,

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Speaker 3: it's greasy. So those areas just north and west of Boston,

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Speaker 3: New York City, Washington, and Baltimore really need to be

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Speaker 3: careful when the precipitation's falling during Saturday afternoon through Sunday.

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Speaker 1: Well, a lot of people who live along the Interstate

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Speaker 1: ninety five quarriter know that that freeway is often right

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Speaker 1: along the boundary between where rain and snow happens. I mean,

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Speaker 1: if this system sticks around for a little bit longer

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Speaker 1: than expected, could we be in for a pretty dicey

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Speaker 1: Monday morning commute.

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Speaker 3: I think Monday morning is going to be okay, particularly

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Speaker 3: in the district in Baltimore, because it dries out Sunday afternoon,

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Speaker 3: So I think the roadways are going to be okay.

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Speaker 3: York City Boston different story. Those areas where they don't

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Speaker 3: get a chance to clean up the slush along the

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Speaker 3: I ninety five corridor. Temperatures are going to be going

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Speaker 3: down Sunday night, and that's going to have the tendency

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Speaker 3: allow those surfaces to refree. So it could be a

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Speaker 3: little bit more dicey New York City on up in

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Speaker 3: the Boston Monday than it is around the district in

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Speaker 3: Baltimore since it.

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Speaker 1: Is on the weekend. We think in good skiing.

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Speaker 3: Well, you know, the ski areas in northern New England

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Speaker 3: and northern New York State really aren't going to see

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Speaker 3: much from this storm. At all too far out to see.

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Speaker 3: It'll be cold enough so they can make some snow.

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Speaker 3: Where this is going to help out is the resorts

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Speaker 3: in West Virginia and on up into Pennsylvania. They'll do

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Speaker 3: fairly well. The Poconos are going to do great. This

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Speaker 3: is going to be their best snowfall in a while,

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Speaker 3: and they'll have real good conditions come Monday and Tuesday

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Speaker 3: in the Poconos. But for northern New England northern New

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Speaker 3: York State, I think the snowfall amounts are probably going

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Speaker 3: to be under two inches.

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Speaker 1: Well anyway, I guess this couldn't have come in a

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Speaker 1: better time, happening on the weekend. But thanks for this, Rob. Again,

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Speaker 1: that was Bloomberg meteorologist Rob Carolyn getting us ready for

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Speaker 1: the first winter storm for the East Coast of twenty

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Speaker 1: twenty four. Well, let's move on from watching the weather

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Speaker 1: to watching the data. Investors have their eyes out for

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Speaker 1: the last look at the US labor market in twenty

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Speaker 1: twenty three with the December non farm payrolls report. Do

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Speaker 1: out an eight thirty am Wall Street time here to

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Speaker 1: get a set for those numbers. Simon French, chief economist

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Speaker 1: at panmir Gordon Simon. Great to speak with you this morning. Now,

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Speaker 1: the consensus on the Bloomberg terminal, it calls for more moderation,

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Speaker 1: one hundred and seventy five thousand new jobs expected, a

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Speaker 1: tick up for the unemployment rate to three point eight percent.

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Speaker 1: What's your expectation, I think.

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Speaker 9: A little bit stronger. Good morning, Nathan. I think the

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Speaker 9: big question for me is US labor market participation appeared

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Speaker 9: to peak during the summer and come back down, but

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Speaker 9: there's conflicting data points as to whether that labor supply

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Speaker 9: pictures is true. And if we start a season more

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Speaker 9: people coming back into the labor market, I think there's

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Speaker 9: potential to still add more jobs than than that estimate. Yes,

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Speaker 9: I think the big influence though for futures on interest

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Speaker 9: rate expectations will be the unemployment rate rather than the

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Speaker 9: number of jobs added, and that I think when you're

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Speaker 9: looking at the kind of rules of thumb we sort

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Speaker 9: of saw the Federal Reserve and moved to in their

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Speaker 9: recent minutes, anything three point eight three point nine will

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Speaker 9: start to firm expectations of the rate cutting cycle this

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Speaker 9: side of the mid year.

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Speaker 1: There's been a lot of talk about four percent potentially

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Speaker 1: being the trigger point for the Federal Reserve to think

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Speaker 1: about cutting interest rates further. Could we see an upside surprise?

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Speaker 1: What's the potential for that?

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Speaker 9: Well, I think four percent is being focused in on

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Speaker 9: by a lot of analysts because of the Palm rule.

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Speaker 9: This is the if you like, the equivalent in the

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Speaker 9: labor market for what we know in the bondom market

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Speaker 9: from a Yeald curb and version is a decent signal

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Speaker 9: of a recession. The Psalm rule looking at er point

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Speaker 9: five five percent increase on the twelve month low point

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Speaker 9: for unemployment, and that would something like four percent would

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Speaker 9: take you there, But you have to get there on

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Speaker 9: a three month average, and we're not going to get

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Speaker 9: that even if we get that print today. But what

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Speaker 9: it would do is it would suggest that by February,

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Speaker 9: the time of the February report, you potentially hit that

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Speaker 9: farm or threshold, which could prepare the ground for rate

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Speaker 9: cutting cycling Q two. So that is why I think

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Speaker 9: analysts are focusing on four percent.

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Speaker 1: Of course, we're going to be keeping an eye out

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Speaker 1: for average hourly earnings as well. Labor force participation feeds

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Speaker 1: into that as well. Where do you see wages going

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Speaker 1: If we find evidence that companies are holding on to employees,

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Speaker 1: or perhaps more people are coming off the sidelines.

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Speaker 9: Yeah, so I think there's I think one of the

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Speaker 9: failures actually of the economics profession in the last couple

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Speaker 9: of years, it's been an inability to recognize that nominal

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Speaker 9: pay awards take their queue from overall price inflation, and

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Speaker 9: therefore I think the helpful price dynamics from gasoline prices,

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Speaker 9: from overall prices coming down in the US economy or

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Speaker 9: the rate of increase coming down, should ever a spillover

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Speaker 9: effect into nominal wage awards. I think there's an over focus,

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Speaker 9: perhaps two model driven from the way central banks model

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Speaker 9: this stuff to look purely at participation in capacity rather

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Speaker 9: than the signals coming from the overall price level. So

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Speaker 9: I actually expect a continued moderation in nominal pay awards.

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Speaker 1: With the quits rate and job openings falling as well.

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Speaker 1: What does that tell us, Simon about the state of

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Speaker 1: the US economy. Are you still thinking that we could

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Speaker 1: be in for a soft landing given where labor dynamics

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Speaker 1: are right now?

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Speaker 9: Nathan, I think you know I'm not a fan particularly

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Speaker 9: of the soft landing hard landing descriptor, mainly because lists. Economists,

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Speaker 9: they tend to define it that they see fits reverse

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Speaker 9: fit their narrative. But if you're looking at a moderation

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Speaker 9: of those jolt data points on quits on hires from

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Speaker 9: some very very extreme levels and a moderation without overshooting,

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Speaker 9: then actually that's the message we got from the Joltz

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Speaker 9: data I felt, which is you are starting to hone

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Speaker 9: in on more normalized levels of labor market churn, and

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Speaker 9: that has to be a positive thing, whether it's a

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Speaker 9: soft landing or hard landing in terms of the hard

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Speaker 9: data of economic activity pass but on those metrics, it's

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Speaker 9: quite encouraging. From the Federal Reserve, they've been able to

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Speaker 9: engineer this.

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Speaker 1: We've seen a lot of activity in the options market

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Speaker 1: ahead of this report, a pretty big bet that we

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Speaker 1: could see ten year yields rise more than ten basis

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Speaker 1: points by the end of the day. What kind of

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Speaker 1: volatility are you expecting off the back of this jobs

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Speaker 1: report in the bond mar.

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Speaker 9: So, I think that's that would be my whether it's

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Speaker 9: an hourly end of day expectation, some more medium term

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Speaker 9: view from my perspective is the bomb mark has got

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Speaker 9: over excited by the pace of potential rate cups. In

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Speaker 9: my view, I think pricing in five to six for

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Speaker 9: the year when it's unlikely the first pirmacy you're going

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Speaker 9: to have enough data to start cutting before the middle

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Speaker 9: towards the back end of Q two, that becomes a

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Speaker 9: really difficult thing to do with only four better reserve

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Speaker 9: meetings in the second half of the year. So I

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Speaker 9: think that expectation that you allude to of slightly firming

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Speaker 9: yield is consistent with perhaps a reassessment of quite how

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Speaker 9: aggressive the FED can be in the data have in

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Speaker 9: front of them.

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Speaker 1: Got about a minute left here, Simon. Not only is

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Speaker 1: the FED going to be focused on the labor market,

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Speaker 1: but we've got inflation data, more inflation data coming out

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Speaker 1: next week as well.

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Speaker 9: Well.

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Speaker 1: What's your expectation on where we could see consumer prices headed.

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Speaker 9: Well, a lot of the base effects that have been

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Speaker 9: driving US inflation lower over the last twelve months, and

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Speaker 9: this is simply some very exceptional numbers leaving leaving the

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Speaker 9: annual comparison. That does mean we're in for a period

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Speaker 9: where the data is going to bounce around in a

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Speaker 9: sort of stubborn stubborn range around three percent. And the question,

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Speaker 9: I guess the Federal Reserve need to ask themselves not

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Speaker 9: all just based on the data, but their understanding of

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Speaker 9: how price setting is going on at district level as well.

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Speaker 9: Is the degree to which that can over an eighteen

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Speaker 9: month two year of you moderate back towards two percent

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Speaker 9: of their central forecast suggest But actually the real economy

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Speaker 9: is not necessarily showing those signs. So I think we're

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Speaker 9: in for a period where month to month will dot

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Speaker 9: around very uncomfortably higher levels than the two percent targets,

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Speaker 9: and is consistently all be seeing in terms of commodity

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Speaker 9: imple prices shipping rates providing less of a down with

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Speaker 9: base effect push than the single last one month.

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