Speaker 1: What's going on? Everybody.
Speaker 2: Welcome into Betting Pros and today we are going to
Speaker 2: talk some baseball. I'm your host, Joe Rico, joined today
Speaker 2: by Chris Welsh and Scott Bogman. And as long as
Speaker 2: I've known these two gentlemen, I don't think I've ever
Speaker 2: hosted to both of them on the same show before.
Speaker 2: So this should be very, very interesting. We're gonna talk
Speaker 2: some Major League futures. We have just shy of two
Speaker 2: months to go in the season and there's still some
Speaker 2: bets to place. There is still money to be made,
Speaker 2: so today we're gonna break it down for you in
Speaker 2: a number of different categories. Boys, this should be a
Speaker 2: lot of fun. Well, she how much has the landscape
Speaker 2: changed since the last time you were thinking about MLB
Speaker 2: futures here on the Betting Pros podcast.
Speaker 3: Oh, it's trade. It's changed pretty significant, I think. I mean,
Speaker 3: I mean even the last one was a little bit
Speaker 3: wonky and like, you know, you're starting to get injuries
Speaker 3: and stuff. But I mean we're gonna talk about it.
Speaker 3: But like the Red Sox, you know, the last time
Speaker 3: we did this, it was like, oh, the lowly little
Speaker 3: Red Sox, and then now we're looking in and it's
Speaker 3: like they're a really viable contender. But while things aren't definitive,
Speaker 3: I think there's some markets that are just kind of set,
Speaker 3: you know, like especially if you look about like rewards
Speaker 3: and stuff like that. I think, like summer set, there's
Speaker 3: still a few spots that are open. But you know,
Speaker 3: the biggest landscape changes have been that like the uh
Speaker 3: the what is it not? The Rookie of the Years,
Speaker 3: but the nl MVP has really opened up. That's kind
Speaker 3: of a new thing. And then the World Series has
Speaker 3: like one big definitive push now after the trade deadline.
Speaker 3: So yeah, I mean, I do think the landscape where
Speaker 3: there is a little bit more definition in the things
Speaker 3: that were locked, you know, the Mizerowskis and the Kevin
Speaker 3: mcgonagall's of the world, a few other things have opened
Speaker 3: up for some pretty nice opportunities, and the Red Sox
Speaker 3: being one of them as well. I mean, how do
Speaker 3: we been smart enough a month ago to talk about
Speaker 3: and have the foresight of that garbage Red Sox team
Speaker 3: at that time to have said, hey, you should you know,
Speaker 3: bet them to make the playoffs That was probably like
Speaker 3: five or six to one at that time. So that
Speaker 3: would have probably been if we were looking at like
Speaker 3: the biggest market movers would have been that.
Speaker 2: Yeah, Bogs, I think it's thirty wins in their last
Speaker 2: thirty five games for the Red Sox. What do you
Speaker 2: make of them in about the futures market in general?
Speaker 2: How much has the landscape changed here over the last
Speaker 2: month in your eyes?
Speaker 4: I mean, I think it's really stupid that we didn't
Speaker 4: know that the Red Sox were going to have their
Speaker 4: longest win streak in franchise history for a team that's
Speaker 4: lasted a million years here underable Yeah, yeah, shame on us.
Speaker 4: How could we not see that coming? But everything that
Speaker 4: the well said is correct, right, Like, there are some
Speaker 4: loopholes that close completely in the futures market the longer
Speaker 4: you wait, and some open back up. The MVP race
Speaker 4: in the NL is open back up. I feel like
Speaker 4: even maybe the NL Rookie of the Year has opened
Speaker 4: back up with Seal Stewart having a massive year or
Speaker 4: a massive like last month as well. So you know,
Speaker 4: things change, some things get worse, some things get better,
Speaker 4: and we're here to talk about it.
Speaker 2: We are going to be breaking it all down and
Speaker 2: we are going to start with the biggest team futures
Speaker 2: market movers, Bogs. We're going to kick it back to
Speaker 2: you and we're going to talk to Milwaukee Brewers. Now,
Speaker 2: it's not every day you see the World Series line
Speaker 2: for a team that is currently the best team in
Speaker 2: Major League Baseball at eight to one, seems like a
Speaker 2: pretty good number.
Speaker 4: Though. Yeah. Look, I know that we're limiting Mizerowski's innings
Speaker 4: or starts or however we're doing it at this point
Speaker 4: pitch pitches. But this is still the best team in
Speaker 4: baseball right now. And they added a little bit at
Speaker 4: the break as well by getting Dustin May, probably not
Speaker 4: as much as we wanted. We know that they were
Speaker 4: in on Trek's schooble, but it didn't work out. So
Speaker 4: the bullpens still a little shaky. I do like them
Speaker 4: adding Sensatela just get him out of Colorado. But you
Speaker 4: know they're getting a little healthier as well, and you know,
Speaker 4: Cherio's all the way back. So I just I think
Speaker 4: that this team is really good, and I think eight
Speaker 4: to one for the best record in the in baseball
Speaker 4: right now is a little ridiculous. I know it's the Dodgers,
Speaker 4: you know, show to lose and all of that, but
Speaker 4: they've lost six in a row. They are stagnant right now,
Speaker 4: and the Brewers are still winning games. So Brewers at
Speaker 4: eight to one, like you said, I just don't think
Speaker 4: you're gonna get a market like this in many seasons.
Speaker 4: So that's why I like the man. Eight to one.
Speaker 2: Yeah, the highest pitching war of any team in baseball
Speaker 2: a top ten lineup to go along with it. Dustin
Speaker 2: May's first start went very well since it tell us
Speaker 2: should be a good addition. As much as I wanted
Speaker 2: them to make, the Schooble package still feels like a
Speaker 2: pretty good number. Welsh, what do you think about the
Speaker 2: Brewers as a World Series bet to make?
Speaker 1: Right now?
Speaker 3: Well, and I'll tell you this, bagman. How about we
Speaker 3: take what you had and let's give you better numbers.
Speaker 3: Because if you go over to betting Pros and you
Speaker 3: check out the MLB odds page, you can see the
Speaker 3: odds across all the books that are out there, and
Speaker 3: the best odds you can get are actually ten to one.
Speaker 3: So you were selling yourself a little bit short that
Speaker 3: you can get ten to one. I think this is
Speaker 3: a fine one. I think the Dodgers side of it
Speaker 3: is the really interesting one. The Dodgers have actually added
Speaker 3: a little bit more on the plus side. They were
Speaker 3: I think like plus one p thirty was the best
Speaker 3: odds I saw a couple of days ago, right up
Speaker 3: to the trade deadline. I think then, is we're recording this.
Speaker 3: They had lost six straight, you know, Schooble's first start,
Speaker 3: they got the loss. They're now pushing on the betting
Speaker 3: pros future market here at like uh plus, like plus
Speaker 3: one seventy. I'm seeing like plus one sixty one fifty
Speaker 3: in a lot of different places.
Speaker 1: So like, if that.
Speaker 3: Ends up pushing to two to one, that's kind of interesting,
Speaker 3: But that also just shows this really big gap that's available.
Speaker 3: It's almost like it's a Dodgers versus the world and
Speaker 3: if you're gonna bet against or for someone else. I
Speaker 3: do like the Brewers in this. I wish they we'd
Speaker 3: have done more. I think they're kind of the I'm
Speaker 3: gonna say that they're like the NL version of the
Speaker 3: Red Sox, except they were never garbage, you know what
Speaker 3: I'm saying. Like you look at the team and on paper,
Speaker 3: you don't quite vibe when you look at the line,
Speaker 3: it's great, Like Misarowski is obviously like a high end guy,
Speaker 3: but when you look across the board, you're like, man,
Speaker 3: if you were to stack their lineup paper for paper
Speaker 3: against the Dodgers or I think the Phillies are a
Speaker 3: sneaky team that's floating out there. They just don't quite
Speaker 3: fit on paper, but they just do it. It's like
Speaker 3: the collective pieces. They get the wins, you know, regardless
Speaker 3: of the Dodgers getting all their Infinity Stones. You know,
Speaker 3: the Brewers are Captain America and they're getting molnear and
Speaker 3: they're just still making it happen. But like, just on
Speaker 3: paper doesn't feel great. But I think this is great
Speaker 3: at ten to one for the Brewers. If you want
Speaker 3: to play that for a World Series, bet I'm totally
Speaker 3: down with that. If you are on the everybody or
Speaker 3: anybody but the Dodgers side, this is this would be
Speaker 3: the place I would be going.
Speaker 2: Well, I am certainly on the anybody but the Dodgers side,
Speaker 2: but I won't get into that because then we'll end
Speaker 2: up being here all day long. Well, she you want
Speaker 2: to talk about the Cleveland Guardians who were kind of
Speaker 2: surprised buyers In my mind at the deadline, maybe they
Speaker 2: were always going to be buyers, but they went out
Speaker 2: and got Jodell, they went out and got Nathaniel Lowe,
Speaker 2: and you are And actually I forgot the biggest one.
Speaker 2: Foster Griffin saw a young contender in the National League.
Speaker 2: So what does your bet look.
Speaker 1: Like here for the Cleveland Guardians going forward?
Speaker 3: Well, I will tell you this, My bet doesn't feel
Speaker 3: super great after the last two days. So I'm gonna
Speaker 3: give be a cavegat to that. The Guardians two nights ago,
Speaker 3: as recording this, had an opportunity. They went to extra innings.
Speaker 1: They blew it.
Speaker 3: Today, Foster, as we're recording this, Foster Griffin had his start,
Speaker 3: didn't look good and they got kind of slacked by
Speaker 3: the Mets. Again. That's not gonna move me off. If anything,
Speaker 3: that's actually probably going to give me. I'm going to
Speaker 3: take a look here on on bidding pros for division
Speaker 3: winners and see if I got any better odds after
Speaker 3: losing to the Mets, because I want to say, no,
Speaker 3: it's about the same, just a little bit of a change,
Speaker 3: But I like the Cleveland Guardians as a division winner.
Speaker 3: I'd originally written this down as plus two forty. It's
Speaker 3: now moved to about two seventy, so you are seeing
Speaker 3: a little bit of movement. Maybe that's even gonna go
Speaker 3: a little bit more as the Mets have taken a
Speaker 3: couple of those games. But when you're looking at strength
Speaker 3: of schedule, which is comparing like you know, winning percentages
Speaker 3: of teams and how they fared this season to what's left,
Speaker 3: Guardians have the easiest strength of schedule the rest of
Speaker 3: the season. Now the White Socks aren't that much further
Speaker 3: down because this division is the thing that stinks and
Speaker 3: kind of helps in why it's a really high strength
Speaker 3: of schedule. But you know, the White Sox are still
Speaker 3: around three. They're gonna be anywhere from three to four games.
Speaker 3: As you're listening to this above, I just don't think
Speaker 3: like the moves that they made that like, is this
Speaker 3: sustainable for two more months?
Speaker 2: It could be.
Speaker 3: I don't want to say it's not.
Speaker 1: It could be.
Speaker 3: But I like the move that the Guardians made. I
Speaker 3: thought Joey Dell was a great move. I like them
Speaker 3: getting rotation help. Like I still see them as kind
Speaker 3: of a complete ish team, and I think they're going
Speaker 3: to make a really really good stand at this division.
Speaker 3: It looks really poorous right now, but I think it's
Speaker 3: going to be extra opportunity because these couple games here
Speaker 3: are going to get us that, you know, two seventy
Speaker 3: or maybe three to one or something like that, and
Speaker 3: they're still within h They're still within grounds to be
Speaker 3: able to pull this. So this division is still wide open.
Speaker 3: There's still too much time. This team always does it.
Speaker 3: Get a healthy Jose Ramirez, get some of those new pieces,
Speaker 3: and close to three to one for the Guardians to
Speaker 3: take this division over the White Sox is a smash
Speaker 3: to me. So this is the one I'm going to
Speaker 3: be jumping in on the future, whether it's you know,
Speaker 3: we're like, I love World Series bets. I think those
Speaker 3: are like sexy and fun, but this one to me
Speaker 3: has like high probability, higher probability of cashing than playing
Speaker 3: the World Series one. So this one is why I
Speaker 3: picked more of a division winner and I'm all over it.
Speaker 1: So take that, Bogs. We're taking division winners here, not
Speaker 1: World Series winners. But I got to agree.
Speaker 2: Well, so the Guardians are looking like a really good team,
Speaker 2: Like looking at their rotation, this is.
Speaker 3: As song as they don't play the Mets.
Speaker 2: They don't play the Mets, which shouldn't happen too too
Speaker 2: often without looking at the schedule. But Parker Messi Gavin
Speaker 2: Williams has been a stud can t o byby a
Speaker 2: little bit iffy. But as you're four and five that
Speaker 2: you'll take that. Foster Griffin is a nice addition. You
Speaker 2: got arguably the best relief pitcher in all of baseball,
Speaker 2: and Kid Smith you helped out the lineup, so I
Speaker 2: got to co sign this one. I really like the
Speaker 2: guardians there. Go around, shop it on betting pros and
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Speaker 2: com slash homers. All right, gentlemen, let's have some fun
Speaker 2: and move into the awards futures. We're talking MVP cy
Speaker 2: Young Rookie of the Year. Whatever you guys like and Bogman,
Speaker 2: we will kick it to you first.
Speaker 4: Yeah. Look, I think Welsh and I had a little
Speaker 4: disagreement about this. We can talk about it here as well,
Speaker 4: But the NL MVP race is hot right now. Right
Speaker 4: it's minus one to ten for both show hay and PCA,
Speaker 4: and I think with voter fatigue, with everybody hating the Dodgers,
Speaker 4: right if the season ended today, I think PCA would
Speaker 4: win the MVP over show Hey. Now it looks like
Speaker 4: show Hayes probably not going to pitch again this season,
Speaker 4: and if he does, it's going to be very light work,
Speaker 4: not intent, so I don't think he's going to add
Speaker 4: much there. The one danger I see in PCA is
Speaker 4: how unbelievably streaky he has been in his short career.
Speaker 4: So if he does have a down month, I think
Speaker 4: it's in oh god, here it is. It's Otani again
Speaker 4: crushing the ball, because Otani doesn't typically have down months.
Speaker 4: So uh, that is my one fear. But I think
Speaker 4: defensively and with what he is doing offensively, that this
Speaker 4: is it's very very close right now, and I would
Speaker 4: like to see PCA run him down and win the MVP.
Speaker 4: So minus one ten I think is very doable here,
Speaker 4: and then on the Rookie of the Year, give me
Speaker 4: JJ Weatherholt plus or minus one thirty five. At this point,
Speaker 4: you know, I think the last time we looked is
Speaker 4: that like minus one ninety year minus two ten or
Speaker 4: something like that to when the NL Rookie of the Year. Obviously,
Speaker 4: south Stewart has had a surge which has brought this
Speaker 4: back to closely even. But I still think Weatherhole is
Speaker 4: the best rookie in the National League and we'll win
Speaker 4: that award. So just a little bit of a buyback in.
Speaker 4: We don't typically like to do a lot of minuses
Speaker 4: on futures, but futures now mean eight weeks, not you know,
Speaker 4: five months, So right now I think these these bets
Speaker 4: are definitely takable in the futures market.
Speaker 1: Yeah.
Speaker 2: The only downside potentially with PCA is what happened last
Speaker 2: year is if he does happen to crater down the stretch.
Speaker 2: And actually just talked about this on an episode of
Speaker 2: the Fantasy Pros Baseball podcast, that he's just a better
Speaker 2: hitter than he was last year. He's walker is up,
Speaker 2: his on base percentages, up one hundred points over last year.
Speaker 2: He looks like he's gonna blow through home run stolen
Speaker 2: base totals, and even with Otani pitching and Otani pitching
Speaker 2: really well when he's been out there, I mean, show
Speaker 2: Hey doing show Hey things has a one to seven
Speaker 2: nine era, a point ninety five whip. You add the
Speaker 2: pitching war and the hitting war, and he's still about
Speaker 2: a full win shy of what PCA has done. He's
Speaker 2: just that great on both sides of the ball, and
Speaker 2: it's hard to argue JJ Weatherholt as well salth Stewart's
Speaker 2: had a bit of a resurgence, as says weather Hold,
Speaker 2: because Weatherholds kind of slumped a little bit there in
Speaker 2: the mid months but has picked things up here. Welsh,
Speaker 2: any thoughts on either of those bets you feel strongly
Speaker 2: about Otani versus PCA or weather Hold versus south Stewart.
Speaker 1: Perhaps, Yeah.
Speaker 3: I mean it's just gonna go into my bed as well,
Speaker 3: so I can just jump in because I'm on the
Speaker 3: opposite end of the Pete Armstrong one.
Speaker 2: Though.
Speaker 3: What I will say though is last year, if around
Speaker 3: this time, if you remember, like ky Rally was going
Speaker 3: ballistic though he was like slowly starting to fade a
Speaker 3: little bit on the batting average, you know, the second
Speaker 3: half struggled. But we're looking at him and we're talking
Speaker 3: about the MVP race, and one of the biggest pieces
Speaker 3: against him was the negative defensive rating. So you almost
Speaker 3: have this this opposite correlation where if we're going to
Speaker 3: hold the negative defensive rating against the guy that's hitting
Speaker 3: sixty plus homers and you know, carrying this team, then
Speaker 3: shouldn't we vault up the positive defensive rating because no
Speaker 3: one has a better defensive rating out there than Pete Armstrong.
Speaker 3: It so on fangrafts, it's like a twenty one point
Speaker 3: five or twenty one point seven highest rating. No one
Speaker 3: else is in the twenties. And as you mentioned, he's
Speaker 3: got a seven point eight WARS we're recording this. I
Speaker 3: had looked it was the day before I had an
Speaker 3: updated Otani's but he was like a combined six point
Speaker 3: four over three bottom line though over three wins above
Speaker 3: replacement as a hitter and a pitcher. But I'm on
Speaker 3: the opposite ends because when do you possibly get an
Speaker 3: even money or a minus one oh five on Shohiotani.
Speaker 1: You never see it.
Speaker 3: The only time you could see it is before the
Speaker 3: season starts. So to me, this is a just like
Speaker 3: an incredible opportunity to jump on this. I mean, I
Speaker 3: think even if he doesn't hit or it doesn't hitch
Speaker 3: the rest of the way, you're gonna go and look
Speaker 3: at him as a hitter, and you're gonna see you know,
Speaker 3: probably close to like one hundred hundred keep it three
Speaker 3: hundred batting average, thirty homers. Like he's not quite the
Speaker 3: same version we've seen with all the big stolen bases,
Speaker 3: but the Dodgers have been faltering and he's the guy
Speaker 3: that has been carrying this team. But you have to
Speaker 3: still consider even if he doesn't pitch the rest of
Speaker 3: the way through that this was a three plus win
Speaker 3: war pitcher. He was one of the best pitchers in
Speaker 3: the first half, and I think that's going to carry
Speaker 3: in and because of the Dodgers' failure, you're gonna look
Speaker 3: at who is the most valuable for their team, and
Speaker 3: I think that actually works well for shoheal Tani. It's
Speaker 3: also kind of a there's a public you know, like
Speaker 3: perception to it where it's like Otani is just like
Speaker 3: just such a great player doing both sides continuously being
Speaker 3: both sides? How do you not give him that award?
Speaker 3: But I'm open to this being super close. If Peter
Speaker 3: Armstrong continues at his run, it's gonna be a really
Speaker 3: tough argument against. If he's a three hundred hitter, probably
Speaker 3: gonna fall short of the RBI marker. But if he's
Speaker 3: like thirty five thirty five with an eight War nine war, like,
Speaker 3: how are we gonna ignore that with the defensive ratings?
Speaker 3: And if the Cubs make, you know, like a really
Speaker 3: big statement. So I think this could be close. But
Speaker 3: for me, this is just honed in on, like when
Speaker 3: do you ever see this for Otani that I would
Speaker 3: jump on this because I think there's just such a great,
Speaker 3: great pull for him to take this really no matter
Speaker 3: what the rest looks like statistically the rest of the
Speaker 3: way through. And I didn't really have anything on anything else, though,
Speaker 3: I would say with sal Stewart, I was tempted, and
Speaker 3: I think he's a guy because I do this all
Speaker 3: the time. I just like talk about World War War
Speaker 3: when it comes to MVP awards or any type of award.
Speaker 3: But I think it matters. Sal Stewart is so far
Speaker 3: behind JJ Weatherholt from a wins above replacement standpoint, JJ
Speaker 3: is a top ten hitter in baseball over four. I
Speaker 3: think salth Stewart's still at like one point nine, or
Speaker 3: he'll be at two. But this is an instance where
Speaker 3: you might categorically look and go, can we really not
Speaker 3: give it to a thirty home run high batting average
Speaker 3: maybe leads the league an RBI rookie. I think he
Speaker 3: really could make a really big play for it, But
Speaker 3: the problem is is he's like minus money now, so
Speaker 3: I don't really want to do anything with either one
Speaker 3: of those. I think weather Holt kind of like the
Speaker 3: Otani thing is a little bit sneaky because he looks
Speaker 3: like the favorite still, but I just don't want to
Speaker 3: touch it because I think it's gotten too messy over there,
Speaker 3: and I think south Stewart is going to really really
Speaker 3: buy for it. But I'm Otani, MVP, Boggs is PCA.
Speaker 3: It's going to be really fun race the rest of
Speaker 3: the way through.
Speaker 4: I really love the point that you made about like, hey, look,
Speaker 4: when are we going to get these good of odds
Speaker 4: on show? Hey again?
Speaker 1: Right?
Speaker 4: I think that is the best point you can make
Speaker 4: if you're pointing out why you should be invested in show. Hey,
Speaker 4: I would say, like, just get invested in one of them.
Speaker 4: Pick the side that you like the best, because I
Speaker 4: think the numbers are good for both. For either of them,
Speaker 4: obviously only one will win, even though that's minus money.
Speaker 4: But like, if PCA is still good through the end stretch,
Speaker 4: has a higher war and doesn't beat Otani, we can
Speaker 4: just officially say that defense does not matter for the
Speaker 4: MVP award, just making it, just making an offensive ward
Speaker 4: because it's Dan because he was bad and then PCA
Speaker 4: was good and they don't give it to him, So
Speaker 4: what do.
Speaker 3: We Yeah, I think one of the things you get
Speaker 3: a factor though, too, is like if he does stuff,
Speaker 3: if he does get back in pitch, like.
Speaker 4: I'm assuming prognosticated.
Speaker 3: Yes, yeah, we're future casting that he just will not
Speaker 3: pitch at all. But then all of a sudden he
Speaker 3: pitches through September getting for the playoffs and carries this
Speaker 3: team and fights off and fins off. I mean, it's
Speaker 3: going to catch him, but you fend off the Podres
Speaker 3: and you continue rolling and you catch up with the Brewers.
Speaker 3: Like that's that's something that's on the table that will
Speaker 3: just completely decimate any of the defensive rating that Pete
Speaker 3: Crow does or anything like that. Is that he pitches
Speaker 3: for a final month and then all of a sudden
Speaker 3: it's like, oh, yeah, by the way, it's the best player.
Speaker 1: Like in the war, the war.
Speaker 4: Will be much closer to if and it just won't
Speaker 4: yeah if show he pitches, so yeah.
Speaker 2: I think show Hay also has public favor on his
Speaker 2: side over PCA. He is the boy wonder. Everybody loves
Speaker 2: show Hey. MLB posts about him every chance they get,
Speaker 2: and I think there is a little bit more of
Speaker 2: a negative spin with PC eight. How much that impacts
Speaker 2: the writers and the voters, that's up to you to decide.
Speaker 2: But something else, well, it's up to the writers, it's
Speaker 2: up to the right.
Speaker 3: That's that's the thing. This isn't like a system play.
Speaker 3: This isn't like AI is going to just put it
Speaker 3: into a thing, scramble it out and throw it out
Speaker 3: to us. These are like people that are going to
Speaker 3: have their public perceptions.
Speaker 1: Maybe there's a cup.
Speaker 3: I didn't mean to interrupt you, by the way, but
Speaker 3: like to your point, these are going to be We've
Speaker 3: seen guys in like Hall of Fame voting who was
Speaker 3: it wasn't like Levitard that was famous for like not
Speaker 3: putting anybody on it, taking a mockery of it, yeah,
Speaker 3: sold it or whatever. So it's like they're going to
Speaker 3: just have their perception. You might not be able to
Speaker 3: change anybody's mind right now. It doesn't matter what statistically happens.
Speaker 3: There might be people that are pissed off about Pete
Speaker 3: crow Armstrong and maybe some unlikability or yelling, you know,
Speaker 3: in that situation he had early on. But there also
Speaker 3: might be some people with a tany that still float around,
Speaker 3: like passing was doing all these reports about you know,
Speaker 3: the epay stuff and the gambling stuff still floats around.
Speaker 3: But there's the human element of it muddies it. And
Speaker 3: if you do have one that has more of a
Speaker 3: negative connotation, that can work against them. And that is
Speaker 3: peak ro Armstrong. Weirdly, because I don't have any issue
Speaker 3: with I don't know what people are like so weird
Speaker 3: about him, but there are really people that just do
Speaker 3: not like him, and that's something that could carry over
Speaker 3: in this. You know, I say public, it's not public,
Speaker 3: but it's like writers, writers putting in the vote.
Speaker 2: One thing I'd say too is just keep locked into
Speaker 2: betting pros over the next couple weeks, and there's a
Speaker 2: decent chance that these odds get swayed ever so slightly
Speaker 2: by a hot show hey game, or PCA hits two
Speaker 2: homers and steals a base it makes a great play
Speaker 2: in center field, and you might be able to get
Speaker 2: both at plus money at some point over the next
Speaker 2: couple of weeks if those odds are shifting up and
Speaker 2: down a little bit. So is just something to keep
Speaker 2: an eye on over on Betting Pros. We're going to
Speaker 2: keep it going in just a second, but first I
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Speaker 2: called one eight hundred gambler. All right, let's shift now
Speaker 2: to post trade deadline strategy. How does the trade deadline
Speaker 2: impact our bets? We're gonna hear about that in a second.
Speaker 2: From Bogs, we're gonna talk about the Seattle Mariners. What
Speaker 2: do you expect to happen with them over the final
Speaker 2: couple months of the season.
Speaker 4: Bugs, Yeah, look this the AL West is wide open
Speaker 4: right now, a lot like the NL Central that we
Speaker 4: just are, the AL Central that we just mentioned with
Speaker 4: the Guardians and the White Sox. Like you know, the
Speaker 4: Twins are in there. Everybody except the Royals are within
Speaker 4: four and a half games with the White Sox, so
Speaker 4: it's all very doable. In the West. The Astros are
Speaker 4: leading by a game and a half up on Texas
Speaker 4: or two and a half up on the Mariners, and
Speaker 4: the Minnors still have a losing record of fifty six
Speaker 4: and fifty nine and they didn't do a ton at
Speaker 4: the deadline, but they did more than Texas. Texas sold,
Speaker 4: So I think this is a two horse race between
Speaker 4: the Astros and the Mariners, and I think if you
Speaker 4: get into the playoffs, the Mariners are gonna be one
Speaker 4: of the teams to beat in the AL because of
Speaker 4: this pitching staff. Right You're gonna add Kate Anderson in
Speaker 4: here within the next week or two or so or
Speaker 4: whatever it is, so he's gonna be in this rotation.
Speaker 4: You're gonna have wu Miller, Gilbert, and you did add
Speaker 4: Ward at the end of this. Maybe Cal Rowley can
Speaker 4: get something back together. I just really like this pitching
Speaker 4: staff in the playoffs, and they're ten to one to
Speaker 4: win the AL right now. So maybe you get in
Speaker 4: there and you get beat down by the Dodgers. Maybe
Speaker 4: you get in there and get beat down by someone
Speaker 4: from the NL. But they were, you know, a couple
Speaker 4: outs away from getting to the World Series last year.
Speaker 4: So I do think that this team has experienced through
Speaker 4: the playoffs. They have a very good pitching staff, and
Speaker 4: I think they can get through the playoff rung. If
Speaker 4: they can get there, that is a big if, but
Speaker 4: it's very doable in this division because this division, no
Speaker 4: one has pulled away and no one made any major
Speaker 4: game breaking moves. You know, the Astros adding varshow is nice,
Speaker 4: But is that does that shift all the odds towards
Speaker 4: the Astros? I would not say so. So Seattle will
Speaker 4: make make it to the World Series win the al
Speaker 4: at plus one thousand is a bet that I like,
Speaker 4: if it.
Speaker 2: Wasn't for a George Springer home run that I was
Speaker 2: there to witness last year, then Seattle would have been
Speaker 2: the team that probably would have beat the Dodgers in
Speaker 2: the World is because that's just the way things work. Well,
Speaker 2: So you're also looking at a futures bet in the
Speaker 2: American League and it's a team that we mentioned earlier
Speaker 2: on in this show.
Speaker 1: Let's hear about the Boston Red Sox.
Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean, and this is like floating a little
Speaker 3: bit around, like the concept of what you were talking about.
Speaker 3: You're like the trade deadline, what's the aftermath in the
Speaker 3: betting strategy? I think one of the most interesting things
Speaker 3: because the Seattle one is interesting to Bogmin's point, because like,
Speaker 3: no one really did anything, so there's still this wide
Speaker 3: open market. So if I were to give it a narrative,
Speaker 3: I would say that no one did anything of significance
Speaker 3: that I think it makes that open for them. Now
Speaker 3: that bet is to win the entire AAL. The division
Speaker 3: might be an interesting play, but I'm going in the
Speaker 3: same direction and I'm going to get worse ods. But
Speaker 3: I think if we want to look at the aftermath
Speaker 3: of the trade deadline, what is the biggest impact that happened,
Speaker 3: how about the Boston Red Sox. It's not necessarily the
Speaker 3: trade deadline, by the way, and more of the path
Speaker 3: of them winning games. But the last time we did
Speaker 3: this show, twenty to one, thirty to one or something
Speaker 3: like that to win the AL, I mean was astronomically ridiculous.
Speaker 3: You're now looking at around five and a half to
Speaker 3: six to one for the Red Sox to take the
Speaker 3: AL as a whole, and I think that's an interesting bet.
Speaker 3: It's risky in that, like you know, this team again
Speaker 3: coming back to it, like on paper, it just looks weird.
Speaker 3: But I just don't think there's a stranglehold in the AL.
Speaker 3: And that's the thing that I kind of keep coming
Speaker 3: back to. I mean, in the NL, it's tricky because
Speaker 3: it's like Dodgers and Milwaukee have been crazy. Like I'll
Speaker 3: be honest with you, one I would kind of float
Speaker 3: out as the Phillies. I still think the Phillies are
Speaker 3: a dangerous team and they're like, you know, around ten
Speaker 3: to one to come out of the NL and go
Speaker 3: to the World Series. But you know, I don't think
Speaker 3: New York is a complete team. I don't think Tampa.
Speaker 3: I mean, Tampa is just they're kind of like the
Speaker 3: Milwaukee of the AL. They're just like this cool group
Speaker 3: that works really well. I don't think they're this dominantly
Speaker 3: crazy big team. And then it's a Boston Red Sox
Speaker 3: who also don't have that, but they've got momentum. They're
Speaker 3: adding ADLEI Ritchman, They've got their bats that are hot.
Speaker 3: They're starting to hit for power, and just what if
Speaker 3: if Garrett Crochet does come back, because he starts to
Speaker 3: he's starting to throw and starting to warm up, and
Speaker 3: what if that happens into the playoffs. They've already got
Speaker 3: a great rotation, they've got an absolute shutdown closer, and
Speaker 3: they've got bats that are live. They've got that momentum.
Speaker 3: So you know, five and a half, if I'm going
Speaker 3: to play something like this. You know, I would love
Speaker 3: a little bit better odds, but I do think the
Speaker 3: Red Sox are not just like on paper, the hottest team,
Speaker 3: but I think they're the most dangerous team in the
Speaker 3: AL right now because they have every facet clicking for them.
Speaker 3: Can you keep doing that for two or three more months?
Speaker 3: That'll be the big question. But I don't think these
Speaker 3: odds are going to get much better unless they go
Speaker 3: into a huge losing streak. So I'll take that five
Speaker 3: and a half or six to one for Boston to
Speaker 3: come out of the AL and surprise everybody.
Speaker 1: I have to totally co sign this, which you guys
Speaker 1: can see.
Speaker 2: I'm wearing a blue Jay's had. It hurts me dearly
Speaker 2: to co sign a Boston Red Sox futures bet. But
Speaker 2: it's hard to argue they are on all cyllolders firing
Speaker 2: right now. The lineup looks great. Rotation is really really solid,
Speaker 2: even if Garrett Crochet doesn't come back. But I heard
Speaker 2: a report the other day that he'd started a throwing progression,
Speaker 2: so you might get Garrett Crochet back for a few stars.
Speaker 2: They added Eric Miller in the bullpen, and in the
Speaker 2: long run, does that work out with Marcello Meher in
Speaker 2: San Francisco. Who knows, but Miller's a good arm to have,
Speaker 2: another lefty, high leverage arm to have for the stretch.
Speaker 2: And another point here that was made to me the
Speaker 2: other day looking back in twenty twenty five, George Springer
Speaker 2: came out of nowhere had the third highest WRC plus
Speaker 2: and baseball amazing season. This year, who has the third
Speaker 2: highest WRC plus and baseball? It's Wilson Contrera's. They have
Speaker 2: their own version of George Springer this year, the veteran
Speaker 2: righty bat who just goes nuclear for a season. The
Speaker 2: only guys who have better offensive seasons this year are
Speaker 2: Wan Soto and Jordan Alvarez. So I could see the
Speaker 2: Red Sox making a deep run going all the way
Speaker 2: to the World Series here if they keep this up,
Speaker 2: and I kind of expect them to a couple more
Speaker 2: bets we are going to get to in a second.
Speaker 2: But first I want to remind you guys about the
Speaker 2: betting pros discord. Futures markets move fast after the deadline.
Speaker 2: You do not want to be betting in a silo.
Speaker 2: Joined the betting pros discord completely free. Not only can
Speaker 2: you connect with expert handicappers who provide free picks for NBA, NFL, MLB,
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Speaker 2: can also participate in our weekly community picks. You can
Speaker 2: cast your vote, see how your pick stack up against
Speaker 2: the experts, and track your success. Join the conversation right
Speaker 2: now for free at bettingpros dot com slash chat. Before
Speaker 2: we get out of here, we want to hit you
Speaker 2: on some bets that will be gone pretty soon. You
Speaker 2: gotta bet these in the next couple of days to
Speaker 2: get the value and bogs.
Speaker 1: We're going to start with you and the Los Angeles Angels.
Speaker 4: Yeah, how about the Angels to have the worst record
Speaker 4: in baseball at plus one thirty five. I like these
Speaker 4: kind of bets because the Rockies, Like, look, the Rockies
Speaker 4: didn't trade away a lot of that offense, so they're
Speaker 4: bad right now, but I think they're gonna be a
Speaker 4: little bit better. The Mets still only have fifty wins.
Speaker 4: The Angels are sitting here at forty four and seventy one, though,
Speaker 4: and they traded Soriano Adele Zephyr jan Yate silseth OHOPI
Speaker 4: like they traded away a lot of pieces from this team,
Speaker 4: and I think it would behoove them to fall down
Speaker 4: to the bottom to get those high draft picks as well. So, uh,
Speaker 4: plus one thirty five for the Angels to have the
Speaker 4: worst record, boys, I mean, is there a strong argument
Speaker 4: against it? Would be my question for me.
Speaker 2: They're the worst.
Speaker 3: They're the worst right now. Yeah, we're recording this. They're
Speaker 3: the worst team in baseball, and I don't see them
Speaker 3: getting much better. So that this is an interesting market
Speaker 3: that you pick. I'd love to play better odds on
Speaker 3: something like that. But here's the fun reason why at
Speaker 3: any plus money you could do that. It's a two
Speaker 3: horse race. It is two teams. So if you're getting
Speaker 3: plus money and it is just two teams going at it, like,
Speaker 3: I don't think that's the worst.
Speaker 4: I think it might be three teams are pretty bad too.
Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean I suppose, like another run, I mean,
Speaker 3: the Kurtz comes back, I suppose I guess I see
Speaker 3: this dominantly as a two horse right. Well, I mean,
Speaker 3: you're not making yourself anymore, but but but I'm saying.
Speaker 4: That's why that's why the odds aren't like plus four
Speaker 4: hundred or something, because it is you know, it's plus
Speaker 4: one thirty five.
Speaker 2: That's all so looking at it, the Rockies, surprisingly this
Speaker 2: year offensively have been pretty good. I mean, they have
Speaker 2: the fifth highest OPS in all of baseball. If you
Speaker 2: look at WRC plus, it kills them.
Speaker 1: They get they get screwed.
Speaker 2: Being at course, I think a little bit too much
Speaker 2: with w RC plus and they're like twenty eighth in baseball,
Speaker 2: but they have the fifth highest OPS. So I think
Speaker 2: the pitching is obviously bad. But the Angels they don't
Speaker 2: have the hitting or the pitching side covered. So I
Speaker 2: like this bet a lot. The Angels are a dumpster fire.
Speaker 2: For Mike Trout's sake, I wish that he would get
Speaker 2: out of there, but apparently he doesn't even want to
Speaker 2: get out of.
Speaker 1: There, so maybe this is all what he wants.
Speaker 2: We're gonna wrap it up with one more bet here.
Speaker 2: We're gonna look at home run leaders and we're gonna
Speaker 2: come down to the wire here for the home run
Speaker 2: lead in Major League Baseball. Jordan Alvarez is number one
Speaker 2: to thirty five. And then you have three names tied
Speaker 2: for second of thirty three. It's Hunter Goodman, Junior Cameronaro,
Speaker 2: and then Kyle Schwarber, which is where.
Speaker 1: Wels is gonna be heading here.
Speaker 3: Yep, I'm gonna go with schwarbz that you're getting around
Speaker 3: two and a half to one. Schwarber's two behind order
Speaker 3: on Alvarez. He's doing it with a significantly low batting average, which,
Speaker 3: by the way, could be the reason why that you
Speaker 3: don't want to take this because Alvarez is hitting ninety
Speaker 3: points higher, but he's hitting ninety points higher with two
Speaker 3: more home runs. Kyle Schwarber is an absolute beast. I
Speaker 3: think this Phillies team is gonna make a nice little
Speaker 3: run here. I think he's going to continue to carry
Speaker 3: He's doing this right now. He's too off with a
Speaker 3: big struggle. He hit thirty two homers in the first half.
Speaker 3: Since the post All Star break, he's only hitting one
Speaker 3: fifty four. I do not think that is going to continue.
Speaker 3: Not that he's a big, strong second half guy. The
Speaker 3: last two years he's hit like two thirty two to
Speaker 3: forty in the second half, but I think the homers
Speaker 3: are going to come in huge bunches, and it just
Speaker 3: takes a little tiny run for him to get to
Speaker 3: where Alvarez is at. ISO is closing into the three hundreds,
Speaker 3: and again I would just point it out that like
Speaker 3: he's been able to do this with a subbish par
Speaker 3: batting average versus where your Dona is. Jordne is a freak,
Speaker 3: He's a superhero. But like I can see Jordan finishing
Speaker 3: forty forty two somewhere like that. Also, not to dismiss
Speaker 3: Junior Camenio. Junior Cameronaro has been fantastic with another ki
Speaker 3: contact hitter. But Schwarber does one thing, and he does
Speaker 3: one thing great and it's hit bombs. And I think
Speaker 3: Schwarber still has an opportunity after thirty two in the
Speaker 3: first half to finish this year with fifty plus home runs,
Speaker 3: so that I'm getting around two and a half odds
Speaker 3: on that for him to lead the league in I
Speaker 3: love that bet. So that's going to be my big
Speaker 3: prop that I'm going to lock into as we come
Speaker 3: to a close on the season.
Speaker 2: It looks like a pretty good bet to make. If
Speaker 2: you look back over the last four seasons, the only
Speaker 2: person who has more homers than Kyle Schwarber is Aaron
Speaker 2: Judge and the guy right behind him is show Heyo Tani.
Speaker 2: So yeah, I'd say that's a pretty decent company to
Speaker 2: be at. He just keeps chugging into his thirties. Kyle Schwarber,
Speaker 2: I wonder if we'll see him hit five hundred, and
Speaker 2: something tells me that we will. But what do you
Speaker 2: guys think? Let us know down below. What are your
Speaker 2: bets going forward? Do you like our futures? Do you
Speaker 2: want to fade them? Let us know in the comments section.
Speaker 2: And by the way, if you like Baseball Talk, you
Speaker 2: can find all three of us over on the Baseball Podcast,
Speaker 2: so make sure you guys are checking that one out.
Speaker 2: But subscribe to Betting Pros and make sure you guys
Speaker 2: are checking it out. For Scott Bogman and Chris Welsh,
Speaker 2: I'm Joe Rica. We'll talk you next time right here
Speaker 2: on the Betting Pros podcast.
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