WEBVTT - MLB Futures Bets You Can Still Cash (Ep. 1032) 0:00:00.960 --> 0:00:02.120 What's going on? Everybody. 0:00:02.240 --> 0:00:04.800 Welcome into Betting Pros and today we are going to 0:00:04.840 --> 0:00:08.119 talk some baseball. I'm your host, Joe Rico, joined today 0:00:08.400 --> 0:00:10.680 by Chris Welsh and Scott Bogman. And as long as 0:00:10.720 --> 0:00:12.480 I've known these two gentlemen, I don't think I've ever 0:00:12.520 --> 0:00:14.960 hosted to both of them on the same show before. 0:00:15.000 --> 0:00:17.840 So this should be very, very interesting. We're gonna talk 0:00:17.880 --> 0:00:20.120 some Major League futures. We have just shy of two 0:00:20.120 --> 0:00:21.720 months to go in the season and there's still some 0:00:21.800 --> 0:00:23.759 bets to place. There is still money to be made, 0:00:23.880 --> 0:00:25.479 so today we're gonna break it down for you in 0:00:25.480 --> 0:00:28.080 a number of different categories. Boys, this should be a 0:00:28.120 --> 0:00:31.040 lot of fun. Well, she how much has the landscape 0:00:31.120 --> 0:00:33.160 changed since the last time you were thinking about MLB 0:00:33.240 --> 0:00:34.959 futures here on the Betting Pros podcast. 0:00:35.440 --> 0:00:38.240 Oh, it's trade. It's changed pretty significant, I think. I mean, 0:00:39.040 --> 0:00:41.199 I mean even the last one was a little bit 0:00:41.280 --> 0:00:43.640 wonky and like, you know, you're starting to get injuries 0:00:43.680 --> 0:00:45.320 and stuff. But I mean we're gonna talk about it. 0:00:45.360 --> 0:00:47.480 But like the Red Sox, you know, the last time 0:00:47.479 --> 0:00:49.440 we did this, it was like, oh, the lowly little 0:00:49.479 --> 0:00:51.599 Red Sox, and then now we're looking in and it's 0:00:51.640 --> 0:00:56.880 like they're a really viable contender. But while things aren't definitive, 0:00:56.920 --> 0:00:59.320 I think there's some markets that are just kind of set, 0:00:59.360 --> 0:01:02.560 you know, like especially if you look about like rewards 0:01:02.560 --> 0:01:04.560 and stuff like that. I think, like summer set, there's 0:01:04.600 --> 0:01:07.040 still a few spots that are open. But you know, 0:01:07.160 --> 0:01:10.480 the biggest landscape changes have been that like the uh 0:01:11.360 --> 0:01:13.479 the what is it not? The Rookie of the Years, 0:01:13.520 --> 0:01:17.080 but the nl MVP has really opened up. That's kind 0:01:17.120 --> 0:01:19.160 of a new thing. And then the World Series has 0:01:19.200 --> 0:01:22.440 like one big definitive push now after the trade deadline. 0:01:22.520 --> 0:01:25.080 So yeah, I mean, I do think the landscape where 0:01:25.080 --> 0:01:27.199 there is a little bit more definition in the things 0:01:27.200 --> 0:01:29.319 that were locked, you know, the Mizerowskis and the Kevin 0:01:29.360 --> 0:01:32.160 mcgonagall's of the world, a few other things have opened 0:01:32.240 --> 0:01:34.560 up for some pretty nice opportunities, and the Red Sox 0:01:34.600 --> 0:01:37.200 being one of them as well. I mean, how do 0:01:37.240 --> 0:01:40.360 we been smart enough a month ago to talk about 0:01:40.520 --> 0:01:43.320 and have the foresight of that garbage Red Sox team 0:01:43.319 --> 0:01:45.520 at that time to have said, hey, you should you know, 0:01:45.560 --> 0:01:47.520 bet them to make the playoffs That was probably like 0:01:47.560 --> 0:01:48.960 five or six to one at that time. So that 0:01:48.960 --> 0:01:50.520 would have probably been if we were looking at like 0:01:50.560 --> 0:01:52.080 the biggest market movers would have been that. 0:01:52.560 --> 0:01:55.120 Yeah, Bogs, I think it's thirty wins in their last 0:01:55.160 --> 0:01:57.520 thirty five games for the Red Sox. What do you 0:01:57.560 --> 0:01:59.920 make of them in about the futures market in general? 0:02:00.040 --> 0:02:02.200 How much has the landscape changed here over the last 0:02:02.200 --> 0:02:02.880 month in your eyes? 0:02:03.200 --> 0:02:05.560 I mean, I think it's really stupid that we didn't 0:02:05.600 --> 0:02:07.200 know that the Red Sox were going to have their 0:02:07.320 --> 0:02:10.720 longest win streak in franchise history for a team that's 0:02:10.800 --> 0:02:15.639 lasted a million years here underable Yeah, yeah, shame on us. 0:02:15.639 --> 0:02:18.760 How could we not see that coming? But everything that 0:02:18.760 --> 0:02:20.959 the well said is correct, right, Like, there are some 0:02:21.120 --> 0:02:25.000 loopholes that close completely in the futures market the longer 0:02:25.040 --> 0:02:28.119 you wait, and some open back up. The MVP race 0:02:28.160 --> 0:02:30.040 in the NL is open back up. I feel like 0:02:30.440 --> 0:02:32.880 even maybe the NL Rookie of the Year has opened 0:02:32.880 --> 0:02:36.440 back up with Seal Stewart having a massive year or 0:02:36.480 --> 0:02:39.080 a massive like last month as well. So you know, 0:02:39.200 --> 0:02:41.959 things change, some things get worse, some things get better, 0:02:42.000 --> 0:02:43.040 and we're here to talk about it. 0:02:43.639 --> 0:02:45.600 We are going to be breaking it all down and 0:02:45.680 --> 0:02:47.840 we are going to start with the biggest team futures 0:02:47.919 --> 0:02:49.920 market movers, Bogs. We're going to kick it back to 0:02:49.960 --> 0:02:52.560 you and we're going to talk to Milwaukee Brewers. Now, 0:02:52.639 --> 0:02:56.320 it's not every day you see the World Series line 0:02:56.720 --> 0:02:58.360 for a team that is currently the best team in 0:02:58.360 --> 0:03:01.040 Major League Baseball at eight to one, seems like a 0:03:01.080 --> 0:03:01.720 pretty good number. 0:03:01.760 --> 0:03:07.320 Though. Yeah. Look, I know that we're limiting Mizerowski's innings 0:03:07.400 --> 0:03:09.880 or starts or however we're doing it at this point 0:03:10.040 --> 0:03:13.320 pitch pitches. But this is still the best team in 0:03:13.360 --> 0:03:15.560 baseball right now. And they added a little bit at 0:03:15.560 --> 0:03:19.040 the break as well by getting Dustin May, probably not 0:03:19.200 --> 0:03:21.560 as much as we wanted. We know that they were 0:03:21.600 --> 0:03:24.320 in on Trek's schooble, but it didn't work out. So 0:03:25.040 --> 0:03:27.400 the bullpens still a little shaky. I do like them 0:03:27.400 --> 0:03:31.080 adding Sensatela just get him out of Colorado. But you 0:03:31.120 --> 0:03:34.480 know they're getting a little healthier as well, and you know, 0:03:34.560 --> 0:03:37.440 Cherio's all the way back. So I just I think 0:03:37.480 --> 0:03:39.080 that this team is really good, and I think eight 0:03:39.120 --> 0:03:42.440 to one for the best record in the in baseball 0:03:42.520 --> 0:03:45.480 right now is a little ridiculous. I know it's the Dodgers, 0:03:45.720 --> 0:03:48.000 you know, show to lose and all of that, but 0:03:49.320 --> 0:03:52.160 they've lost six in a row. They are stagnant right now, 0:03:52.200 --> 0:03:54.960 and the Brewers are still winning games. So Brewers at 0:03:54.960 --> 0:03:57.000 eight to one, like you said, I just don't think 0:03:57.000 --> 0:04:00.000 you're gonna get a market like this in many seasons. 0:04:00.120 --> 0:04:01.920 So that's why I like the man. Eight to one. 0:04:02.760 --> 0:04:05.280 Yeah, the highest pitching war of any team in baseball 0:04:05.320 --> 0:04:07.440 a top ten lineup to go along with it. Dustin 0:04:07.480 --> 0:04:09.640 May's first start went very well since it tell us 0:04:09.640 --> 0:04:11.360 should be a good addition. As much as I wanted 0:04:11.360 --> 0:04:14.000 them to make, the Schooble package still feels like a 0:04:14.000 --> 0:04:15.520 pretty good number. Welsh, what do you think about the 0:04:15.520 --> 0:04:17.600 Brewers as a World Series bet to make? 0:04:17.680 --> 0:04:18.080 Right now? 0:04:18.720 --> 0:04:21.080 Well, and I'll tell you this, bagman. How about we 0:04:21.160 --> 0:04:22.960 take what you had and let's give you better numbers. 0:04:23.000 --> 0:04:24.520 Because if you go over to betting Pros and you 0:04:24.640 --> 0:04:27.080 check out the MLB odds page, you can see the 0:04:27.120 --> 0:04:30.000 odds across all the books that are out there, and 0:04:30.200 --> 0:04:32.440 the best odds you can get are actually ten to one. 0:04:32.760 --> 0:04:35.320 So you were selling yourself a little bit short that 0:04:35.400 --> 0:04:37.640 you can get ten to one. I think this is 0:04:37.640 --> 0:04:40.760 a fine one. I think the Dodgers side of it 0:04:40.800 --> 0:04:43.120 is the really interesting one. The Dodgers have actually added 0:04:43.160 --> 0:04:45.520 a little bit more on the plus side. They were 0:04:46.040 --> 0:04:48.000 I think like plus one p thirty was the best 0:04:48.040 --> 0:04:49.560 odds I saw a couple of days ago, right up 0:04:49.560 --> 0:04:52.000 to the trade deadline. I think then, is we're recording this. 0:04:52.200 --> 0:04:54.840 They had lost six straight, you know, Schooble's first start, 0:04:54.880 --> 0:04:58.719 they got the loss. They're now pushing on the betting 0:04:58.720 --> 0:05:02.800 pros future market here at like uh plus, like plus 0:05:02.839 --> 0:05:05.520 one seventy. I'm seeing like plus one sixty one fifty 0:05:05.560 --> 0:05:06.640 in a lot of different places. 0:05:06.680 --> 0:05:07.520 So like, if that. 0:05:07.520 --> 0:05:09.479 Ends up pushing to two to one, that's kind of interesting, 0:05:09.920 --> 0:05:12.679 But that also just shows this really big gap that's available. 0:05:12.680 --> 0:05:15.279 It's almost like it's a Dodgers versus the world and 0:05:15.320 --> 0:05:18.640 if you're gonna bet against or for someone else. I 0:05:18.680 --> 0:05:20.560 do like the Brewers in this. I wish they we'd 0:05:20.560 --> 0:05:24.160 have done more. I think they're kind of the I'm 0:05:24.200 --> 0:05:26.320 gonna say that they're like the NL version of the 0:05:26.360 --> 0:05:28.880 Red Sox, except they were never garbage, you know what 0:05:28.920 --> 0:05:31.159 I'm saying. Like you look at the team and on paper, 0:05:31.640 --> 0:05:34.400 you don't quite vibe when you look at the line, 0:05:34.600 --> 0:05:37.360 it's great, Like Misarowski is obviously like a high end guy, 0:05:37.360 --> 0:05:39.120 but when you look across the board, you're like, man, 0:05:39.520 --> 0:05:42.080 if you were to stack their lineup paper for paper 0:05:42.120 --> 0:05:44.320 against the Dodgers or I think the Phillies are a 0:05:44.320 --> 0:05:47.520 sneaky team that's floating out there. They just don't quite 0:05:47.520 --> 0:05:49.200 fit on paper, but they just do it. It's like 0:05:49.240 --> 0:05:52.680 the collective pieces. They get the wins, you know, regardless 0:05:52.720 --> 0:05:55.479 of the Dodgers getting all their Infinity Stones. You know, 0:05:55.520 --> 0:05:58.159 the Brewers are Captain America and they're getting molnear and 0:05:58.160 --> 0:06:01.200 they're just still making it happen. But like, just on 0:06:01.240 --> 0:06:03.200 paper doesn't feel great. But I think this is great 0:06:03.279 --> 0:06:05.120 at ten to one for the Brewers. If you want 0:06:05.120 --> 0:06:07.240 to play that for a World Series, bet I'm totally 0:06:07.520 --> 0:06:11.000 down with that. If you are on the everybody or 0:06:11.040 --> 0:06:13.479 anybody but the Dodgers side, this is this would be 0:06:13.520 --> 0:06:14.560 the place I would be going. 0:06:15.000 --> 0:06:18.080 Well, I am certainly on the anybody but the Dodgers side, 0:06:18.080 --> 0:06:19.680 but I won't get into that because then we'll end 0:06:19.760 --> 0:06:22.560 up being here all day long. Well, she you want 0:06:22.600 --> 0:06:25.960 to talk about the Cleveland Guardians who were kind of 0:06:26.000 --> 0:06:28.840 surprised buyers In my mind at the deadline, maybe they 0:06:28.960 --> 0:06:30.560 were always going to be buyers, but they went out 0:06:30.560 --> 0:06:32.599 and got Jodell, they went out and got Nathaniel Lowe, 0:06:32.760 --> 0:06:35.000 and you are And actually I forgot the biggest one. 0:06:35.040 --> 0:06:38.080 Foster Griffin saw a young contender in the National League. 0:06:38.680 --> 0:06:40.159 So what does your bet look. 0:06:40.040 --> 0:06:41.719 Like here for the Cleveland Guardians going forward? 0:06:42.080 --> 0:06:44.480 Well, I will tell you this, My bet doesn't feel 0:06:44.520 --> 0:06:46.560 super great after the last two days. So I'm gonna 0:06:46.560 --> 0:06:49.400 give be a cavegat to that. The Guardians two nights ago, 0:06:49.440 --> 0:06:52.080 as recording this, had an opportunity. They went to extra innings. 0:06:52.080 --> 0:06:52.600 They blew it. 0:06:52.839 --> 0:06:56.080 Today, Foster, as we're recording this, Foster Griffin had his start, 0:06:56.120 --> 0:06:58.640 didn't look good and they got kind of slacked by 0:06:58.680 --> 0:07:01.159 the Mets. Again. That's not gonna move me off. If anything, 0:07:01.200 --> 0:07:03.040 that's actually probably going to give me. I'm going to 0:07:03.080 --> 0:07:05.680 take a look here on on bidding pros for division 0:07:05.720 --> 0:07:07.760 winners and see if I got any better odds after 0:07:07.800 --> 0:07:10.240 losing to the Mets, because I want to say, no, 0:07:10.360 --> 0:07:13.280 it's about the same, just a little bit of a change, 0:07:13.320 --> 0:07:16.600 But I like the Cleveland Guardians as a division winner. 0:07:16.720 --> 0:07:19.400 I'd originally written this down as plus two forty. It's 0:07:19.440 --> 0:07:21.360 now moved to about two seventy, so you are seeing 0:07:21.400 --> 0:07:23.760 a little bit of movement. Maybe that's even gonna go 0:07:23.760 --> 0:07:26.560 a little bit more as the Mets have taken a 0:07:26.560 --> 0:07:29.720 couple of those games. But when you're looking at strength 0:07:29.760 --> 0:07:32.760 of schedule, which is comparing like you know, winning percentages 0:07:32.800 --> 0:07:35.119 of teams and how they fared this season to what's left, 0:07:35.480 --> 0:07:37.920 Guardians have the easiest strength of schedule the rest of 0:07:37.960 --> 0:07:40.840 the season. Now the White Socks aren't that much further 0:07:41.080 --> 0:07:43.480 down because this division is the thing that stinks and 0:07:43.560 --> 0:07:46.720 kind of helps in why it's a really high strength 0:07:46.720 --> 0:07:48.720 of schedule. But you know, the White Sox are still 0:07:48.760 --> 0:07:50.640 around three. They're gonna be anywhere from three to four games. 0:07:50.640 --> 0:07:52.840 As you're listening to this above, I just don't think 0:07:52.880 --> 0:07:55.160 like the moves that they made that like, is this 0:07:55.280 --> 0:07:56.880 sustainable for two more months? 0:07:56.880 --> 0:07:57.400 It could be. 0:07:57.480 --> 0:07:58.320 I don't want to say it's not. 0:07:58.600 --> 0:07:59.080 It could be. 0:07:59.240 --> 0:08:00.960 But I like the move that the Guardians made. I 0:08:00.960 --> 0:08:02.880 thought Joey Dell was a great move. I like them 0:08:02.880 --> 0:08:06.160 getting rotation help. Like I still see them as kind 0:08:06.160 --> 0:08:08.200 of a complete ish team, and I think they're going 0:08:08.280 --> 0:08:10.680 to make a really really good stand at this division. 0:08:10.920 --> 0:08:14.120 It looks really poorous right now, but I think it's 0:08:14.120 --> 0:08:16.640 going to be extra opportunity because these couple games here 0:08:16.800 --> 0:08:19.600 are going to get us that, you know, two seventy 0:08:19.680 --> 0:08:21.720 or maybe three to one or something like that, and 0:08:21.720 --> 0:08:24.720 they're still within h They're still within grounds to be 0:08:24.760 --> 0:08:26.880 able to pull this. So this division is still wide open. 0:08:26.920 --> 0:08:29.960 There's still too much time. This team always does it. 0:08:30.200 --> 0:08:33.040 Get a healthy Jose Ramirez, get some of those new pieces, 0:08:33.240 --> 0:08:35.120 and close to three to one for the Guardians to 0:08:35.160 --> 0:08:37.440 take this division over the White Sox is a smash 0:08:37.480 --> 0:08:39.000 to me. So this is the one I'm going to 0:08:39.040 --> 0:08:41.040 be jumping in on the future, whether it's you know, 0:08:41.080 --> 0:08:43.400 we're like, I love World Series bets. I think those 0:08:43.440 --> 0:08:45.640 are like sexy and fun, but this one to me 0:08:45.720 --> 0:08:48.920 has like high probability, higher probability of cashing than playing 0:08:48.920 --> 0:08:50.960 the World Series one. So this one is why I 0:08:51.080 --> 0:08:53.480 picked more of a division winner and I'm all over it. 0:08:53.520 --> 0:08:56.120 So take that, Bogs. We're taking division winners here, not 0:08:56.160 --> 0:08:57.880 World Series winners. But I got to agree. 0:08:57.920 --> 0:09:01.120 Well, so the Guardians are looking like a really good team, 0:09:01.440 --> 0:09:02.920 Like looking at their rotation, this is. 0:09:02.920 --> 0:09:04.200 As song as they don't play the Mets. 0:09:04.400 --> 0:09:06.319 They don't play the Mets, which shouldn't happen too too 0:09:06.320 --> 0:09:08.720 often without looking at the schedule. But Parker Messi Gavin 0:09:08.720 --> 0:09:12.599 Williams has been a stud can t o byby a 0:09:12.600 --> 0:09:15.240 little bit iffy. But as you're four and five that 0:09:15.400 --> 0:09:17.599 you'll take that. Foster Griffin is a nice addition. You 0:09:17.679 --> 0:09:20.280 got arguably the best relief pitcher in all of baseball, 0:09:20.280 --> 0:09:22.600 and Kid Smith you helped out the lineup, so I 0:09:22.600 --> 0:09:24.320 got to co sign this one. I really like the 0:09:24.320 --> 0:09:26.480 guardians there. Go around, shop it on betting pros and 0:09:26.480 --> 0:09:28.440 get the best number. And speaking of betting pros, you 0:09:28.440 --> 0:09:31.360 guys should be checking out our new home run betting tool. 0:09:31.400 --> 0:09:34.240 Stop guessing on MLB dinger props and head to bettingpros 0:09:34.240 --> 0:09:37.360 dot com slash homers. Our model calculates a fair price 0:09:37.360 --> 0:09:40.120 for every hitter on the slate line, shops across major 0:09:40.160 --> 0:09:43.520 books and prediction markets, and hits you with a clear play, 0:09:43.720 --> 0:09:46.760 lean or pass grade. Stop betting into bad lines and 0:09:46.800 --> 0:09:49.800 lock in your home run card today at bettingpros dot 0:09:49.840 --> 0:09:53.880 com slash homers. All right, gentlemen, let's have some fun 0:09:54.000 --> 0:09:57.600 and move into the awards futures. We're talking MVP cy 0:09:57.679 --> 0:10:00.360 Young Rookie of the Year. Whatever you guys like and Bogman, 0:10:00.400 --> 0:10:01.480 we will kick it to you first. 0:10:01.920 --> 0:10:04.720 Yeah. Look, I think Welsh and I had a little 0:10:04.720 --> 0:10:07.600 disagreement about this. We can talk about it here as well, 0:10:07.640 --> 0:10:11.520 But the NL MVP race is hot right now. Right 0:10:11.840 --> 0:10:14.760 it's minus one to ten for both show hay and PCA, 0:10:15.320 --> 0:10:19.319 and I think with voter fatigue, with everybody hating the Dodgers, 0:10:19.440 --> 0:10:23.480 right if the season ended today, I think PCA would 0:10:23.480 --> 0:10:26.600 win the MVP over show Hey. Now it looks like 0:10:26.640 --> 0:10:29.920 show Hayes probably not going to pitch again this season, 0:10:29.960 --> 0:10:32.480 and if he does, it's going to be very light work, 0:10:32.640 --> 0:10:36.200 not intent, so I don't think he's going to add 0:10:36.280 --> 0:10:40.360 much there. The one danger I see in PCA is 0:10:40.400 --> 0:10:43.199 how unbelievably streaky he has been in his short career. 0:10:43.320 --> 0:10:46.200 So if he does have a down month, I think 0:10:46.200 --> 0:10:48.960 it's in oh god, here it is. It's Otani again 0:10:49.320 --> 0:10:51.960 crushing the ball, because Otani doesn't typically have down months. 0:10:52.000 --> 0:10:54.960 So uh, that is my one fear. But I think 0:10:55.000 --> 0:10:59.520 defensively and with what he is doing offensively, that this 0:10:59.760 --> 0:11:02.360 is it's very very close right now, and I would 0:11:02.440 --> 0:11:05.520 like to see PCA run him down and win the MVP. 0:11:05.760 --> 0:11:08.400 So minus one ten I think is very doable here, 0:11:08.760 --> 0:11:10.760 and then on the Rookie of the Year, give me 0:11:10.880 --> 0:11:13.959 JJ Weatherholt plus or minus one thirty five. At this point, 0:11:13.960 --> 0:11:15.640 you know, I think the last time we looked is 0:11:15.679 --> 0:11:18.960 that like minus one ninety year minus two ten or 0:11:18.960 --> 0:11:22.320 something like that to when the NL Rookie of the Year. Obviously, 0:11:22.360 --> 0:11:24.760 south Stewart has had a surge which has brought this 0:11:24.880 --> 0:11:27.559 back to closely even. But I still think Weatherhole is 0:11:27.600 --> 0:11:30.120 the best rookie in the National League and we'll win 0:11:30.160 --> 0:11:32.400 that award. So just a little bit of a buyback in. 0:11:32.679 --> 0:11:34.839 We don't typically like to do a lot of minuses 0:11:34.920 --> 0:11:39.040 on futures, but futures now mean eight weeks, not you know, 0:11:39.120 --> 0:11:42.720 five months, So right now I think these these bets 0:11:42.760 --> 0:11:45.800 are definitely takable in the futures market. 0:11:46.480 --> 0:11:46.720 Yeah. 0:11:46.720 --> 0:11:50.120 The only downside potentially with PCA is what happened last 0:11:50.160 --> 0:11:52.480 year is if he does happen to crater down the stretch. 0:11:52.480 --> 0:11:54.520 And actually just talked about this on an episode of 0:11:54.520 --> 0:11:57.680 the Fantasy Pros Baseball podcast, that he's just a better 0:11:57.760 --> 0:12:00.600 hitter than he was last year. He's walker is up, 0:12:00.640 --> 0:12:03.440 his on base percentages, up one hundred points over last year. 0:12:03.440 --> 0:12:05.760 He looks like he's gonna blow through home run stolen 0:12:05.760 --> 0:12:08.880 base totals, and even with Otani pitching and Otani pitching 0:12:09.760 --> 0:12:11.880 really well when he's been out there, I mean, show 0:12:11.920 --> 0:12:13.960 Hey doing show Hey things has a one to seven 0:12:14.080 --> 0:12:16.680 nine era, a point ninety five whip. You add the 0:12:16.679 --> 0:12:18.959 pitching war and the hitting war, and he's still about 0:12:18.960 --> 0:12:21.400 a full win shy of what PCA has done. He's 0:12:21.480 --> 0:12:24.240 just that great on both sides of the ball, and 0:12:24.280 --> 0:12:26.640 it's hard to argue JJ Weatherholt as well salth Stewart's 0:12:26.640 --> 0:12:28.280 had a bit of a resurgence, as says weather Hold, 0:12:28.280 --> 0:12:29.960 because Weatherholds kind of slumped a little bit there in 0:12:29.960 --> 0:12:33.160 the mid months but has picked things up here. Welsh, 0:12:33.200 --> 0:12:35.920 any thoughts on either of those bets you feel strongly 0:12:35.920 --> 0:12:39.280 about Otani versus PCA or weather Hold versus south Stewart. 0:12:39.320 --> 0:12:40.760 Perhaps, Yeah. 0:12:40.800 --> 0:12:42.840 I mean it's just gonna go into my bed as well, 0:12:42.920 --> 0:12:44.840 so I can just jump in because I'm on the 0:12:44.840 --> 0:12:46.640 opposite end of the Pete Armstrong one. 0:12:46.840 --> 0:12:47.000 Though. 0:12:47.000 --> 0:12:51.559 What I will say though is last year, if around 0:12:51.600 --> 0:12:53.480 this time, if you remember, like ky Rally was going 0:12:53.480 --> 0:12:56.920 ballistic though he was like slowly starting to fade a 0:12:56.920 --> 0:12:58.760 little bit on the batting average, you know, the second 0:12:58.760 --> 0:13:01.080 half struggled. But we're looking at him and we're talking 0:13:01.160 --> 0:13:04.160 about the MVP race, and one of the biggest pieces 0:13:04.200 --> 0:13:07.080 against him was the negative defensive rating. So you almost 0:13:07.080 --> 0:13:10.319 have this this opposite correlation where if we're going to 0:13:10.360 --> 0:13:12.720 hold the negative defensive rating against the guy that's hitting 0:13:12.760 --> 0:13:16.000 sixty plus homers and you know, carrying this team, then 0:13:16.040 --> 0:13:18.640 shouldn't we vault up the positive defensive rating because no 0:13:18.679 --> 0:13:21.559 one has a better defensive rating out there than Pete Armstrong. 0:13:21.600 --> 0:13:23.800 It so on fangrafts, it's like a twenty one point 0:13:24.080 --> 0:13:26.440 five or twenty one point seven highest rating. No one 0:13:26.480 --> 0:13:29.360 else is in the twenties. And as you mentioned, he's 0:13:29.360 --> 0:13:31.760 got a seven point eight WARS we're recording this. I 0:13:31.840 --> 0:13:33.480 had looked it was the day before I had an 0:13:33.559 --> 0:13:35.880 updated Otani's but he was like a combined six point 0:13:35.920 --> 0:13:40.160 four over three bottom line though over three wins above 0:13:40.160 --> 0:13:41.960 replacement as a hitter and a pitcher. But I'm on 0:13:42.000 --> 0:13:46.400 the opposite ends because when do you possibly get an 0:13:46.480 --> 0:13:49.080 even money or a minus one oh five on Shohiotani. 0:13:49.520 --> 0:13:50.280 You never see it. 0:13:50.559 --> 0:13:52.160 The only time you could see it is before the 0:13:52.160 --> 0:13:54.960 season starts. So to me, this is a just like 0:13:55.120 --> 0:13:58.000 an incredible opportunity to jump on this. I mean, I 0:13:58.040 --> 0:14:00.280 think even if he doesn't hit or it doesn't hitch 0:14:00.360 --> 0:14:02.440 the rest of the way, you're gonna go and look 0:14:02.440 --> 0:14:04.240 at him as a hitter, and you're gonna see you know, 0:14:04.280 --> 0:14:06.839 probably close to like one hundred hundred keep it three 0:14:06.880 --> 0:14:09.560 hundred batting average, thirty homers. Like he's not quite the 0:14:09.600 --> 0:14:11.880 same version we've seen with all the big stolen bases, 0:14:12.240 --> 0:14:14.400 but the Dodgers have been faltering and he's the guy 0:14:14.440 --> 0:14:16.600 that has been carrying this team. But you have to 0:14:16.600 --> 0:14:18.480 still consider even if he doesn't pitch the rest of 0:14:18.480 --> 0:14:20.680 the way through that this was a three plus win 0:14:20.800 --> 0:14:22.760 war pitcher. He was one of the best pitchers in 0:14:22.800 --> 0:14:24.560 the first half, and I think that's going to carry 0:14:24.600 --> 0:14:27.320 in and because of the Dodgers' failure, you're gonna look 0:14:27.360 --> 0:14:29.720 at who is the most valuable for their team, and 0:14:29.760 --> 0:14:31.800 I think that actually works well for shoheal Tani. It's 0:14:31.800 --> 0:14:35.280 also kind of a there's a public you know, like 0:14:35.920 --> 0:14:38.560 perception to it where it's like Otani is just like 0:14:38.800 --> 0:14:41.960 just such a great player doing both sides continuously being 0:14:42.000 --> 0:14:43.840 both sides? How do you not give him that award? 0:14:44.240 --> 0:14:46.960 But I'm open to this being super close. If Peter 0:14:47.160 --> 0:14:49.280 Armstrong continues at his run, it's gonna be a really 0:14:49.280 --> 0:14:52.120 tough argument against. If he's a three hundred hitter, probably 0:14:52.160 --> 0:14:54.280 gonna fall short of the RBI marker. But if he's 0:14:54.320 --> 0:14:58.280 like thirty five thirty five with an eight War nine war, like, 0:14:58.560 --> 0:15:01.360 how are we gonna ignore that with the defensive ratings? 0:15:01.360 --> 0:15:02.880 And if the Cubs make, you know, like a really 0:15:02.880 --> 0:15:05.720 big statement. So I think this could be close. But 0:15:05.840 --> 0:15:09.000 for me, this is just honed in on, like when 0:15:09.040 --> 0:15:11.080 do you ever see this for Otani that I would 0:15:11.120 --> 0:15:13.800 jump on this because I think there's just such a great, 0:15:13.920 --> 0:15:16.040 great pull for him to take this really no matter 0:15:16.080 --> 0:15:18.120 what the rest looks like statistically the rest of the 0:15:18.120 --> 0:15:21.600 way through. And I didn't really have anything on anything else, though, 0:15:21.600 --> 0:15:24.680 I would say with sal Stewart, I was tempted, and 0:15:24.760 --> 0:15:26.840 I think he's a guy because I do this all 0:15:26.880 --> 0:15:28.600 the time. I just like talk about World War War 0:15:28.640 --> 0:15:31.080 when it comes to MVP awards or any type of award. 0:15:31.080 --> 0:15:33.960 But I think it matters. Sal Stewart is so far 0:15:34.040 --> 0:15:37.920 behind JJ Weatherholt from a wins above replacement standpoint, JJ 0:15:38.040 --> 0:15:40.600 is a top ten hitter in baseball over four. I 0:15:40.640 --> 0:15:42.800 think salth Stewart's still at like one point nine, or 0:15:42.800 --> 0:15:45.240 he'll be at two. But this is an instance where 0:15:45.240 --> 0:15:48.320 you might categorically look and go, can we really not 0:15:48.440 --> 0:15:52.320 give it to a thirty home run high batting average 0:15:52.440 --> 0:15:55.680 maybe leads the league an RBI rookie. I think he 0:15:55.720 --> 0:15:57.800 really could make a really big play for it, But 0:15:57.800 --> 0:15:59.840 the problem is is he's like minus money now, so 0:16:00.240 --> 0:16:02.280 I don't really want to do anything with either one 0:16:02.320 --> 0:16:04.120 of those. I think weather Holt kind of like the 0:16:04.160 --> 0:16:06.640 Otani thing is a little bit sneaky because he looks 0:16:06.680 --> 0:16:08.800 like the favorite still, but I just don't want to 0:16:08.800 --> 0:16:10.840 touch it because I think it's gotten too messy over there, 0:16:10.840 --> 0:16:12.640 and I think south Stewart is going to really really 0:16:12.680 --> 0:16:16.320 buy for it. But I'm Otani, MVP, Boggs is PCA. 0:16:16.400 --> 0:16:18.240 It's going to be really fun race the rest of 0:16:18.280 --> 0:16:18.640 the way through. 0:16:18.800 --> 0:16:21.120 I really love the point that you made about like, hey, look, 0:16:21.200 --> 0:16:23.200 when are we going to get these good of odds 0:16:23.280 --> 0:16:24.400 on show? Hey again? 0:16:24.800 --> 0:16:25.000 Right? 0:16:25.400 --> 0:16:27.480 I think that is the best point you can make 0:16:27.680 --> 0:16:30.800 if you're pointing out why you should be invested in show. Hey, 0:16:30.840 --> 0:16:32.960 I would say, like, just get invested in one of them. 0:16:33.000 --> 0:16:35.400 Pick the side that you like the best, because I 0:16:35.440 --> 0:16:38.440 think the numbers are good for both. For either of them, 0:16:38.440 --> 0:16:41.240 obviously only one will win, even though that's minus money. 0:16:41.240 --> 0:16:45.400 But like, if PCA is still good through the end stretch, 0:16:45.760 --> 0:16:48.600 has a higher war and doesn't beat Otani, we can 0:16:48.680 --> 0:16:51.480 just officially say that defense does not matter for the 0:16:51.520 --> 0:16:54.440 MVP award, just making it, just making an offensive ward 0:16:54.480 --> 0:16:57.400 because it's Dan because he was bad and then PCA 0:16:57.560 --> 0:16:59.160 was good and they don't give it to him, So 0:16:59.240 --> 0:16:59.440 what do. 0:16:59.440 --> 0:17:00.760 We Yeah, I think one of the things you get 0:17:00.800 --> 0:17:02.520 a factor though, too, is like if he does stuff, 0:17:02.520 --> 0:17:03.760 if he does get back in pitch, like. 0:17:04.640 --> 0:17:06.119 I'm assuming prognosticated. 0:17:06.160 --> 0:17:08.320