WEBVTT - The Scientific Method 0:00:00.160 --> 0:00:04.440 Yeah, welcome to Stuff from the Science Lab from how 0:00:04.480 --> 0:00:16.160 stuff works dot com. Hey guys, and welcome to the podcast. 0:00:16.200 --> 0:00:17.959 This is Alison I don't know if, the science editor 0:00:18.079 --> 0:00:20.759 at how staff works dot com. And this is Robert Lamb, 0:00:20.760 --> 0:00:22.680 science writerer at how stuff works dot com. And this 0:00:22.760 --> 0:00:27.480 is part two of a two parter. Last episode, um 0:00:27.680 --> 0:00:30.800 thing called science. We talked about what science is in 0:00:30.920 --> 0:00:34.440 very sort of broad general terms, um, you know, defining 0:00:35.000 --> 0:00:37.400 this thing called science and what it, what it means, 0:00:37.400 --> 0:00:41.040 how it works, and uh, and how it's changed what 0:00:41.320 --> 0:00:44.400 we are as a species and civilization. Yeah, we've gotten 0:00:44.400 --> 0:00:46.680 a couple of requests for doing a podcast on the 0:00:46.720 --> 0:00:48.960 scientific method, and we will be tackling some of these 0:00:48.960 --> 0:00:51.839 big topics. And it really was important to us to 0:00:51.880 --> 0:00:54.520 talk about the scientific method, as it is a core 0:00:54.600 --> 0:00:58.560 concept of all science. Yeah, like scientific method as um, 0:00:58.600 --> 0:01:02.840 as we mentioned the Life podcast, it's basically how science advances, 0:01:02.840 --> 0:01:05.880 how it moves, how it claims new territory like a 0:01:06.360 --> 0:01:09.560 like an advancing army. You know, how it you know 0:01:09.600 --> 0:01:11.600 how it's a quote you know, Carl Sagan, how it 0:01:11.920 --> 0:01:16.679 you know, brings light into a demon haunted world. You know. So, 0:01:16.680 --> 0:01:18.920 so what's the history on scientific method. Right when did 0:01:18.959 --> 0:01:21.720 it come out? Come about? It looks like it came 0:01:21.760 --> 0:01:25.399 out as far back as the fourth century. See though 0:01:25.440 --> 0:01:28.280 they didn't call it scientific method, and it's it can't 0:01:28.280 --> 0:01:31.480 really be attributed to like one person, but but some 0:01:31.560 --> 0:01:33.920 of the like the ideas involved, and it started emerging 0:01:33.959 --> 0:01:36.640 pretty early on. Yeah, you got a guy you guys 0:01:36.720 --> 0:01:39.920 might have heard of him in Aristotle. He proposed methods 0:01:39.959 --> 0:01:43.160 to answer questions about the world through rigorous observation. Yeah, 0:01:43.280 --> 0:01:46.679 that was way back in the fourth century BC. Much later, 0:01:47.280 --> 0:01:51.520 Albertus Magnus comes along and he borrowed some principles from 0:01:51.600 --> 0:01:56.880 Muslim scientists, and he described this repeating cycle of observation, hypothesis, experimentation, 0:01:56.960 --> 0:02:00.120 and verification. Do you know that Albertus Magnus suppose as 0:02:00.120 --> 0:02:04.120 we had an android? I'm sorry what and android? Yeah, 0:02:04.320 --> 0:02:06.920 it's like look it up. It's pretty crazy, like it 0:02:07.000 --> 0:02:09.240 was probably not an actual robot, just to go ahead 0:02:09.240 --> 0:02:11.520 and get that out there. But um, but he had 0:02:11.560 --> 0:02:13.480 like some sort if I remember the scry he hit 0:02:13.560 --> 0:02:16.680 some sort of like mannequin that maybe had some sort 0:02:16.680 --> 0:02:21.560 of mechanical I think those those charges may have been 0:02:21.600 --> 0:02:23.760 because a lot of these older guys like our next guy, 0:02:23.760 --> 0:02:27.080 Francis Bacon included. You know, they were curious about a 0:02:27.080 --> 0:02:29.440 lot of things, and sometimes that curiosity took them into, 0:02:29.680 --> 0:02:35.200 you know, exploring um less scientific and more magical ideas, 0:02:35.240 --> 0:02:37.280 you know, because that was, like I said, you didn't 0:02:37.280 --> 0:02:39.520 have as clearly to find a science back then, so 0:02:39.600 --> 0:02:44.080 it would sort of bleed into other areas. Um. But 0:02:44.080 --> 0:02:46.839 but yeah, he supposedly had an android, Francis Bacon. I don't. 0:02:46.960 --> 0:02:49.239 I don't think he did. But and he's important we 0:02:49.280 --> 0:02:51.000 bring him up because he was really the first to 0:02:51.040 --> 0:02:54.400 formalize the concept of a true scientific method. And he, 0:02:54.600 --> 0:02:57.200 of course, as standing on the shoulders of giants, as 0:02:57.200 --> 0:03:00.920 these scientists tend to you, was basing is method on 0:03:01.120 --> 0:03:06.120 the work of Nicolas Caperncus and Galileo. Yeah, then along 0:03:06.200 --> 0:03:10.880 comes Mr Newton, Sir Newton to us and his laws 0:03:10.919 --> 0:03:13.680 really ruled the world of science for centuries, and he 0:03:13.720 --> 0:03:17.000 marked the beaming of the scientific age. And don't we 0:03:17.040 --> 0:03:18.680 have a we have a really good article on Isaac 0:03:18.720 --> 0:03:20.400 Newton on the side, don't we do? And I have 0:03:20.440 --> 0:03:24.239 an outstanding request to do a blog post on oh yes, 0:03:24.280 --> 0:03:29.519 about his um, his involvement in alchemy and I remember else. 0:03:29.760 --> 0:03:33.400 I know it's arianism, Okay, Newton and arianism, So I 0:03:33.440 --> 0:03:36.200 will get to that at some point, I promise. Cool. 0:03:36.520 --> 0:03:39.840 So yeah, Newton, though, was pretty much the the beginning 0:03:39.840 --> 0:03:44.920 of the the you know, our scientific age. And you 0:03:44.960 --> 0:03:48.480 know he brought about the beginning methods to um an 0:03:48.480 --> 0:03:51.320 attempt to minimize the influence of bias and prejudice in 0:03:51.360 --> 0:03:55.400 the experiment or and and and the scientific method also 0:03:56.520 --> 0:04:01.880 provides an objective, standardized approach to conducting experiments. And it's 0:04:01.880 --> 0:04:04.360 also about getting cred right, you know, it's good, but 0:04:04.360 --> 0:04:06.280 it's about getting cred not only with other scientists, but 0:04:06.360 --> 0:04:08.560 with the public, with you know, the people who are 0:04:08.560 --> 0:04:11.720 going to be um, exposed to your work. And how 0:04:11.720 --> 0:04:14.440 do they know, um, that you're conducting your work in 0:04:14.480 --> 0:04:18.400 a controlled and rigorous fashion. Yeah, and you made a 0:04:18.400 --> 0:04:22.240 good point when we were preparing for this about nobody's 0:04:22.279 --> 0:04:25.600 perfect when it comes to experimentation in carrying out the 0:04:25.640 --> 0:04:28.480 scientific method, Like there's no like we've named some pretty 0:04:28.560 --> 0:04:31.159 you know, stellar names, you know, um, you know, be 0:04:31.240 --> 0:04:35.080 at Aristotle or Galileo or Newton, but nobody's like free 0:04:35.080 --> 0:04:38.479 of criticism, you know, even like modern dudes like like hawking. 0:04:38.839 --> 0:04:42.159 You know, it's like people. People will and do take 0:04:42.200 --> 0:04:44.480 hawking to task the things that they think doesn't hold 0:04:44.560 --> 0:04:48.279 up to scientific scrutiny. And that's that's how science works. 0:04:48.320 --> 0:04:51.240 Like nothing is set in stone, right, So you have 0:04:51.320 --> 0:04:55.400 to be open to colleagues, um, feedback, constructive criticism, although 0:04:55.440 --> 0:04:58.000 sometimes it can get a little gnarly. Uh. You know, 0:04:58.040 --> 0:05:00.320 you can have some like the bone war. Do you 0:05:00.320 --> 0:05:05.320 remember that when we're talking about dinosaurs. These respected scholars, paleontologists, 0:05:05.720 --> 0:05:08.240 and all of a sudden they're battling over dinosaur bones. 0:05:08.279 --> 0:05:11.200 And I published first. Now you published first, and never 0:05:11.279 --> 0:05:13.400 having been in in a career where I need to 0:05:13.400 --> 0:05:15.480 publish to get ahead, I imagine it does get very 0:05:15.520 --> 0:05:18.279 heated and the pressure is on to publish, to get funding, 0:05:18.320 --> 0:05:20.480 all the stuff, to be the one who's in Nature 0:05:20.560 --> 0:05:25.360 first or whatever publication. But getting back to your point, 0:05:26.480 --> 0:05:29.920 Highlights was a good managing. They had the page where 0:05:29.920 --> 0:05:32.720 you would find the hidden objects in the I did. 0:05:32.800 --> 0:05:35.240 I used to read that in the doctor's office. Um. 0:05:35.320 --> 0:05:37.880 You know, beginning back to your point, there are two 0:05:38.520 --> 0:05:41.440 major forms of bias that creep into experiments and we 0:05:41.480 --> 0:05:45.599 should mention them. Uh, selection bias and that's really that 0:05:45.640 --> 0:05:49.359 occurs if the participants you select, for example, UM for 0:05:49.400 --> 0:05:53.800 an experiment aren't representative of particular population, so selection bias. 0:05:53.920 --> 0:05:59.720 Say you're interested in whether people watch more TV at night, 0:06:00.360 --> 0:06:04.280 but you only go to a house. Uh, you only 0:06:04.279 --> 0:06:07.320 go to a neighborhood that's fifty five and older. So yeah, 0:06:07.320 --> 0:06:10.480 that's not a good like cross section of the population 0:06:10.560 --> 0:06:13.840 you're looking to to study. Yeah, because maybe you're looking 0:06:13.880 --> 0:06:18.240 to look at TV habit TV watching habits in population 0:06:18.400 --> 0:06:21.480 from thirty and above, right, So you're if you're only 0:06:21.520 --> 0:06:23.640 hitting the fifty five and older community, probably not going 0:06:23.680 --> 0:06:26.360 to get that creative results. I'm not going to have 0:06:26.400 --> 0:06:30.200 an informed, informed data. So you also can have observer bias. 0:06:30.240 --> 0:06:32.719 An example of this may be that a participant in 0:06:32.760 --> 0:06:37.120 experiment couldn't remember correctly what his exposure to particular variable was. 0:06:37.680 --> 0:06:42.159 So let's say you're interested in the question of UM 0:06:42.279 --> 0:06:48.159 influenza among UM a particular population of people, and UM, 0:06:48.600 --> 0:06:51.320 your participant can't remember the number of times he hung 0:06:51.320 --> 0:06:54.479 out with runny nose nursery school kids. However, you choose 0:06:54.480 --> 0:06:57.240 to word that in your experiment, Well cool, let's UM. 0:06:57.279 --> 0:07:00.080 So those are two examples of us cool. Well, let's so, 0:07:00.279 --> 0:07:03.240 I guess it's time to actually begin the process, begin 0:07:03.600 --> 0:07:07.000 the scientific method. Let's do it right. So the first 0:07:07.040 --> 0:07:10.680 step is pretty pretty basic, doesn't require a lot of explanation. 0:07:11.040 --> 0:07:14.000 Make an observation, and you know, I think, well, you 0:07:14.080 --> 0:07:15.920 encounter this every day. You like, maybe you're on Marty 0:07:16.040 --> 0:07:18.920 or something that Marty's our public transportation train system here 0:07:18.960 --> 0:07:21.240 in Atlanta, and you you look across the island and 0:07:21.240 --> 0:07:24.320 you go, I wonder, like, what why that lady is 0:07:24.320 --> 0:07:27.880 eating an entyrotistrie chicken on the train. It's an observation 0:07:28.040 --> 0:07:31.280 and it raises question, chicken lady, it was weird, it 0:07:31.400 --> 0:07:34.920 was It's kind of gross. That would be definitely gross. Yeah, 0:07:35.120 --> 0:07:38.000 now that would would be harder to that more scientific 0:07:38.040 --> 0:07:41.920 would be like you know, like Charles Darwin observing uh, 0:07:42.200 --> 0:07:45.520 you know, different species of finches uh on the galactical 0:07:45.600 --> 0:07:49.360 silence and and asking himself, you know, what's going on here? Why? 0:07:49.600 --> 0:07:52.280 Why all the similarity? You know, or you know, the 0:07:52.360 --> 0:07:54.840 things of that nature are definitely more in the scientific realm. 0:07:54.920 --> 0:07:57.960 Why is something the way it is? And And that's 0:07:58.040 --> 0:08:01.440 that's the beginning. Okay, But let's just get back to 0:08:01.480 --> 0:08:05.600 the richistory. Chicken. There's no reason why you couldn't um 0:08:05.760 --> 0:08:08.920 come up with some sort of interesting experiment based around that. Okay, 0:08:08.920 --> 0:08:11.480 well okay, yeah, Like the in the situation would be 0:08:11.520 --> 0:08:15.760 like why does this lady find it necessary to eat 0:08:15.760 --> 0:08:18.440 a roctistory chicken with their fingers on the train and 0:08:18.440 --> 0:08:23.000 then touch the pole? There's there's all sorts of interesting 0:08:23.040 --> 0:08:25.320 stuff to be explored there. It doesn't have to be 0:08:25.360 --> 0:08:29.440 about finches or about you know, particle accelerators. The very 0:08:29.520 --> 0:08:32.160 questions that you know surround us in our normal lives, 0:08:32.160 --> 0:08:34.560 I think are worthy of investigation, and I think it's 0:08:34.559 --> 0:08:37.880 just really worth emphasizing because science does not have to 0:08:37.920 --> 0:08:42.199 be about these um super unapproachable intellectual topics, right like 0:08:43.000 --> 0:08:48.640 the the Ignoble Prizes, the Improbable Research publication they constantly 0:08:48.640 --> 0:08:52.400 cover peer reviewed scientific um, you know, papers that deal 0:08:52.440 --> 0:08:55.840 with kind of ludicrous founding, you know, questions, But but 0:08:55.920 --> 0:08:58.080 nothing's you know, like you say, nothing is really out 0:08:58.080 --> 0:09:01.120 of bounds for science, you knows, of like, what was 0:09:01.160 --> 0:09:03.040 one of the more ridiculous ones that I can actually 0:09:03.120 --> 0:09:05.720 mention in the podcast because the only ones coming to 0:09:05.760 --> 0:09:09.640 mind are the probably risque ones. Um, I think there 0:09:09.720 --> 0:09:13.240 was something that's um, there was a charcoal filter. A 0:09:13.320 --> 0:09:17.080 man who invented a charcoal filter so that when he 0:09:17.280 --> 0:09:24.280 um was feeling gaseous, there was That wasn't really an experiment, 0:09:24.280 --> 0:09:27.480 that was more of an invention, I suppose. Yeah, but 0:09:27.800 --> 0:09:29.520 that's the only one I can do. But still the 0:09:29.600 --> 0:09:32.040 things of that nature. I mean, there are some scientific 0:09:32.080 --> 0:09:34.920 experiments I know for a fact, like dealing with NASA 0:09:35.040 --> 0:09:37.000 that have to do with like how ghassy people are, 0:09:37.040 --> 0:09:40.000 because that's an issue if you're going into space, so 0:09:40.240 --> 0:09:44.080 bad breath. So yeah, just about anything, no matter how 0:09:44.160 --> 0:09:49.840 ridiculous or seemingly insignificant. Uh, science can and often does 0:09:50.000 --> 0:09:54.440 analyze it. So we have a pretty insignificant sounding example, 0:09:54.559 --> 0:09:57.240 just a very hypothetical situation here around the office, right 0:09:57.480 --> 0:09:59.400 all right, Yeah, So Robert and I put together a 0:09:59.440 --> 0:10:03.440 little hype local experiment and here's our experiment. We were 0:10:03.440 --> 0:10:07.800 going to make an observation. And here's the deal. Robert, Yeah, 0:10:08.120 --> 0:10:11.920 you are a big fan of pudding pops and for 0:10:11.960 --> 0:10:15.800 the purposes, so you're gonna be bringing a stash of 0:10:15.840 --> 0:10:18.840 putting pops to work. You're gonna put them in the freezer, 0:10:19.520 --> 0:10:21.360 don't put them in the fridge like I put my 0:10:21.400 --> 0:10:23.880 ice cream cake for my sixteenth birthday in the fridge 0:10:23.880 --> 0:10:25.959 and it melted, and that was why do you bring 0:10:26.000 --> 0:10:29.120 that to work? Now? It probably just as well you 0:10:29.160 --> 0:10:34.200 shouldn't eat baconized turning sixty. Um, So, anyway, you've been 0:10:34.200 --> 0:10:36.600 bringing these pudding pops to work. He's stash him in 0:10:36.600 --> 0:10:38.920 the freezer. Two clock rolls around. You're really getting that, 0:10:39.920 --> 0:10:41.920 you know, urge for a pudding pop, which I guess 0:10:42.240 --> 0:10:45.560 grips some of us. Yeah, two pm, that's a good 0:10:45.600 --> 0:10:48.560 time for it. Sugar, you need some sugar to keep going. Yeah, 0:10:48.559 --> 0:10:50.720 so you even noticing that the pudding pops are disappearing. 0:10:51.240 --> 0:10:54.720 Mm hmm. They're disappearing faster than you've been eating them. 0:10:54.760 --> 0:10:59.080 At least this is your thought. It's not like you're 0:10:59.120 --> 0:11:01.400 the kind of guy who you know, marks his food 0:11:01.400 --> 0:11:03.880 and the freezer and ticks one off when you take 0:11:03.920 --> 0:11:06.720 one out of the box. So you've you've kind of observed. Okay, 0:11:06.760 --> 0:11:10.920 we've observed. And this leads right into the next step 0:11:11.080 --> 0:11:14.200 in the scientific method, and that is ask a question. Yeah, 0:11:14.280 --> 0:11:17.000 we gotta narrow our focus of inquiry. We've gotta identify 0:11:17.080 --> 0:11:20.079 the problem. We're gonna get specific, right, So the observation 0:11:20.120 --> 0:11:23.560 we made was that something is happening to these pudding pops. 0:11:23.640 --> 0:11:25.800 They're vanishing. Am I the only one thinking of Bill 0:11:25.840 --> 0:11:31.640 Cosby right now? Probably not um? And then the question 0:11:31.679 --> 0:11:35.680 that immediately arises is, Hey, what's happening to these pudding pops? 0:11:36.000 --> 0:11:38.880 Is someone throwing them away? Are they like they are 0:11:38.880 --> 0:11:41.880 they atomizing and just you know, or they've slipping into 0:11:41.920 --> 0:11:45.320 another dimension. And maybe the boxes upside down and they're 0:11:45.480 --> 0:11:47.640 they're falling out of the boxing on the way to work, 0:11:47.679 --> 0:11:50.640 and then I'm putting an empty box into the freezer. See, 0:11:50.679 --> 0:11:53.559 these are all these are all interesting possible Maybe just 0:11:53.640 --> 0:11:57.800 maybe somebody is eating your pudding pops and it's not you. 0:11:58.040 --> 0:12:01.480 Well that leads to step three right, form a hypothesis. 0:12:02.520 --> 0:12:05.319 So there are all these possibilities. Now that the possibility 0:12:05.320 --> 0:12:07.600 that a a like a tiny black hole is opening 0:12:07.679 --> 0:12:10.960 up in the house, stuff works, freezer and consuming pudding pops, well, 0:12:11.120 --> 0:12:14.520 I don't think that's very likely. Just it's maybe it's possible, 0:12:14.520 --> 0:12:18.600 but it's extremely unlikely. Likewise, I feel like I'm pretty 0:12:19.040 --> 0:12:21.680 aware of my you know, surroundings. When I'm bringing things 0:12:21.679 --> 0:12:24.079 to work. They're probably not following out falling out of 0:12:24.120 --> 0:12:27.120 that box. So I'm going to go with the hypothesis 0:12:27.880 --> 0:12:33.319 somebody's stealing my pudding pops. Well, if they're vanilla flavor, 0:12:33.400 --> 0:12:36.080 nobody's stealing them chocolate, I might grant you that. So 0:12:36.679 --> 0:12:39.200 um right, So no, now we have this question, and 0:12:39.280 --> 0:12:41.680 let's let's formulate it correctly so that we can find 0:12:41.679 --> 0:12:44.360 an answer. And that's really the next step that we 0:12:44.440 --> 0:12:46.280 have going on here. We're going to suggest a possible 0:12:46.280 --> 0:12:50.240 answer in the form of a hypothesis. And a hypothesis 0:12:50.360 --> 0:12:54.280 is often defined as an educated guess because we sort 0:12:54.280 --> 0:12:57.080 of have this idea that, yes, maybe somebody is taking 0:12:57.080 --> 0:13:00.439 the pudding pops black holes not really not really likely. 0:13:00.600 --> 0:13:02.640 Some of the other options not so likely, So this 0:13:02.720 --> 0:13:06.120 is somewhat of an informed guess. It's generally in the 0:13:06.160 --> 0:13:09.880 form of like X then y R. Another important thing 0:13:09.880 --> 0:13:11.960 about the hypothesis is that you're gonna have to define 0:13:12.040 --> 0:13:14.880 all the terms in there, right, So um, if our 0:13:14.960 --> 0:13:21.480 hypothesis is um, let's see if we leave a box 0:13:21.559 --> 0:13:24.320 putting pops in the fridge for a week, then Josh 0:13:24.440 --> 0:13:26.839 Clark from Stuff you Should Know, We'll still a pudding 0:13:26.880 --> 0:13:29.960 pop a day in the afternoon. Accepting weekends, Okay, So 0:13:30.000 --> 0:13:31.480 what are we gonna have to define there? Who is 0:13:31.559 --> 0:13:37.400 Josh Clark? What is it? Pudding pop um? What is stealing? Indeed, 0:13:37.760 --> 0:13:39.520 a couple of different things that we're going to have 0:13:39.600 --> 0:13:42.160 to know and be able to measure to see in 0:13:42.200 --> 0:13:46.320 fact whether our hypothesis has proven true. And how are 0:13:46.320 --> 0:13:48.600 we going to find out if it's proven true. We're 0:13:48.600 --> 0:13:51.160 gonna have to devise an experiment. Okay, and this is 0:13:51.200 --> 0:13:55.040 step four, Step four duct an experiment the excitement. So 0:13:55.080 --> 0:13:58.440 the hypothesis is that Josh Clark may be stealing these 0:13:58.559 --> 0:14:01.480 putting pop a day and said, just to clarify, I'm 0:14:01.480 --> 0:14:04.560 pretty sure Josh Clark is a fan of frozen yogurt 0:14:04.640 --> 0:14:06.680 and not putting pops but in real life, but for 0:14:06.720 --> 0:14:10.520 the purposes the experiment, he's a putting pop faint. Okay, 0:14:10.559 --> 0:14:14.839 all right, so let's connect our experiment. Let's make it scientific. 0:14:15.040 --> 0:14:17.480 All right? Well, how do you can connect the scientific experiment? Like? 0:14:17.520 --> 0:14:20.360 What are the well, I mean a lot of people listening. 0:14:20.360 --> 0:14:21.760 You are going to think of something that takes place 0:14:21.760 --> 0:14:23.600 in the lab. You know you're gonna invoke buns and 0:14:23.640 --> 0:14:27.480 burners and lab work benches and test tubes and all 0:14:27.520 --> 0:14:31.000 sorts of things like that earln Meyer, Flaska. Do you 0:14:31.000 --> 0:14:35.360 remember this? Yeah, I think so. But it doesn't necessarily 0:14:35.440 --> 0:14:37.880 mean like, it doesn't necessarily mean like me and Alison 0:14:37.880 --> 0:14:40.520 going into the laboratory and like melting down putting pops 0:14:40.560 --> 0:14:43.320 and like you know that kind of stuff. No, our 0:14:43.320 --> 0:14:45.880 experiment can be pretty simple, and and some really great 0:14:45.920 --> 0:14:49.720 experiments in science have been extraordinarily simple. Yeah, it's all 0:14:49.760 --> 0:14:52.080 about like not that we would put our experiment on 0:14:52.160 --> 0:14:54.960 the level of this, but it's all about like keeping 0:14:54.960 --> 0:14:58.080 it on task and in avoiding bias, so like in 0:14:58.200 --> 0:15:01.480 controlling for your variables as much as you can um 0:15:01.520 --> 0:15:03.280 and then you know, if you can't control for some 0:15:03.360 --> 0:15:07.440 of these variables and analyzing the data uh later in 0:15:07.480 --> 0:15:10.480 a way that can say maybe you run like linear regression. 0:15:10.520 --> 0:15:14.440 I can't believe I just pull that up stats. Yeah, 0:15:14.520 --> 0:15:17.440 So you wouldn't want to, like, you're not conducting an 0:15:17.440 --> 0:15:21.120 experiment to prove Josh Clark is is stealing putting pops. 0:15:21.120 --> 0:15:24.560 You're testing a hypothesis. It's it's it may seem like 0:15:24.560 --> 0:15:26.920 a slight thing, but it's it really makes a lot 0:15:27.000 --> 0:15:30.480 of difference. You're you're you're supposed to avoid having any 0:15:30.520 --> 0:15:33.960 kind of like preconceived answer, you know. I mean you 0:15:33.960 --> 0:15:35.480 can have you can sort of have one, but not 0:15:35.520 --> 0:15:39.920 like officially. You know, you can have an informed guess. Yeah, 0:15:40.000 --> 0:15:42.680 you can have expected result, but not you know, you're 0:15:42.680 --> 0:15:46.760 not setting out to prove that result exactly. Okay, so 0:15:46.920 --> 0:15:49.080 let's uh, let's roll our experiment. What are we gonna do. 0:15:49.320 --> 0:15:53.000 We gotta get some pops, right, Um, So let's say 0:15:53.040 --> 0:15:55.760 we were going to conduct our experiment over the span 0:15:55.960 --> 0:16:00.200 of a work week Monday through Friday. We're gonna put 0:16:00.200 --> 0:16:03.360 the pops in the freezer at the start of Monday morning, 0:16:04.760 --> 0:16:09.120 and we're going to add a hidden camera. Okay, I 0:16:09.120 --> 0:16:10.680 don't know where to get one of these if we 0:16:10.680 --> 0:16:12.680 were to conduct such an experiment. I guess they're probably 0:16:12.680 --> 0:16:14.720 pretty easy to yet. They probably have them in the 0:16:14.800 --> 0:16:19.760 video department, yeah, everywhere. Yeah. So we're gonna hook up 0:16:19.760 --> 0:16:21.920 the hidden camera, and then we're going to monitor the 0:16:21.960 --> 0:16:24.160 camera and see what happens with the pops, who's taken them. 0:16:24.160 --> 0:16:26.760 When we're gonna record the data, We're gonna record you 0:16:26.840 --> 0:16:29.920 eating the pops. We're gonna record everything about the pops. Now, 0:16:29.920 --> 0:16:33.120 we're also going to need a control group, right, Yeah, 0:16:33.160 --> 0:16:35.280 I suppose we could we could have the control group. Yeah, 0:16:35.360 --> 0:16:38.239 this is like when if you're testing a drug on people, 0:16:38.440 --> 0:16:41.720 like in a clinical trial, like the test group would 0:16:41.800 --> 0:16:44.840 receive a placebo or they would they would not receive 0:16:45.480 --> 0:16:48.440 the proposed they proposed therapy, because you want to see 0:16:48.440 --> 0:16:51.320 how people respond just normally. I do think we need 0:16:51.360 --> 0:16:54.960 to do a podcast on the placebo effect, by the way, 0:16:53.600 --> 0:16:56.960 I want to do one. Okay, so we're gonna also 0:16:57.040 --> 0:17:00.440 place a box of pudding pops in the freeze by 0:17:00.560 --> 0:17:03.320 the dev team, and that should be interesting because they 0:17:03.360 --> 0:17:05.800 are a wacky bunch, yeah, and they're far away, you know, 0:17:06.320 --> 0:17:09.399 like for the purposes of this experiment, Josh Clark never 0:17:09.440 --> 0:17:12.280 goes there. And also for the purposes of this experiment, 0:17:12.320 --> 0:17:15.200 the development team does not like putting their all allergic 0:17:15.240 --> 0:17:18.560 to it. Okay, all right, all right, so they're a 0:17:18.560 --> 0:17:21.560 good control group. Alright. So so yeah, we so we 0:17:21.600 --> 0:17:23.879 carry out this experiment, right, Yeah, what do we find? 0:17:24.680 --> 0:17:26.240 Get some data? Well, that's the thing. We have to 0:17:26.240 --> 0:17:31.960 move on to step five, which is analyzed the data conclusion. Yeah, sure, 0:17:32.040 --> 0:17:38.679 did do a little deduction deduction deducon So, for instance, 0:17:38.760 --> 0:17:41.960 let's let's say that we look at the data and 0:17:42.600 --> 0:17:45.919 it doesn't look like Josh's stealing these. It doesn't well, 0:17:46.000 --> 0:17:49.280 let's say like Josh. Let's say that in the in 0:17:49.520 --> 0:17:53.160 this particular footage, like Josh is only showing up at 0:17:53.240 --> 0:17:56.320 in the at the freezer like like once a week, 0:17:56.840 --> 0:18:00.440 and we're still having one a day disappear. So it's 0:18:00.440 --> 0:18:02.320 not Josh. Yeah, so we would have to at this 0:18:02.400 --> 0:18:06.480 point reject the hypothesis. Yes, and then we would have 0:18:06.560 --> 0:18:09.159 to go backwards a few steps to the form of 0:18:09.240 --> 0:18:11.200 hypothesis level, and we have to form a new one. 0:18:11.240 --> 0:18:14.120 Maybe look into that black hole thing or maybe look 0:18:14.200 --> 0:18:16.960 into the girls from I don't know, Stephane ms in 0:18:17.040 --> 0:18:19.399 history class, right, Yeah, maybe they have a thing for 0:18:19.400 --> 0:18:23.280 putting bops. Never know. And uh. And likewise, if we 0:18:23.280 --> 0:18:25.879 were to look at the data and find proof that 0:18:26.000 --> 0:18:29.280 Josh was actually stealing these, then we would have to 0:18:29.320 --> 0:18:32.600 accept the hypothesis would be validated and it would be 0:18:32.680 --> 0:18:35.160 nice and then maybe you know, submit it to Highlights 0:18:35.160 --> 0:18:38.879 magazine for republication. Well, yes, of course you bring up 0:18:39.040 --> 0:18:42.040 a good point. So after we're after we're done analyzing 0:18:42.040 --> 0:18:45.080 the data and we've drawn conclusions and um, gone through 0:18:45.080 --> 0:18:48.159 all the accepting or rejecting of the hypothesis. I'm not 0:18:48.160 --> 0:18:51.120 even gonna get into the little hypothesis. Well, we're keeping 0:18:51.119 --> 0:18:55.160 it pretty simple for for everybody here, right, So we're 0:18:55.160 --> 0:18:57.680 gonna want to We're gonna want to communicate the results 0:18:57.720 --> 0:19:00.720 of our experiment with our colleagues, with our fellow putting 0:19:00.760 --> 0:19:04.280 pop scientists out there. We're gonna, you know, want to see, Hey, 0:19:04.359 --> 0:19:07.280 what did you guys think about how we conducted our experiment. 0:19:07.320 --> 0:19:09.480 Maybe we'll get maybe little submitted to highlights. So we 0:19:09.520 --> 0:19:12.040 have to we have to go through peer review, and 0:19:12.600 --> 0:19:16.320 one of the people who is a putting pop expert 0:19:16.359 --> 0:19:18.199 will say, hey, you know what, actually I've done this 0:19:18.280 --> 0:19:21.520 experiment and you forgot to do X y Z. You 0:19:21.520 --> 0:19:26.800 didn't stick the camera in the right place because yeah, yeah, 0:19:27.320 --> 0:19:29.439 or yeah. There are a number of problems that can 0:19:29.480 --> 0:19:31.600 come and they come up constantly, like if you actually 0:19:31.600 --> 0:19:35.400 look at any like peer reviewed publication, like it's constantly 0:19:35.440 --> 0:19:37.800 like you know, people bringing up problems and just really 0:19:37.840 --> 0:19:40.600 tearing into studies that they don't agree with, their find 0:19:40.600 --> 0:19:43.439 fault with their disagree with the methods. Yeah, so there 0:19:43.440 --> 0:19:46.399 are limitations to to science. It can't achieve everything, and 0:19:46.760 --> 0:19:49.760 clearly the scientific method is a powerful tool. Um, but 0:19:49.840 --> 0:19:54.040 it too has its limitations. For starters, a hypothesis has 0:19:54.080 --> 0:19:58.320 to be testable and uh and falsifiable, and the experiments 0:19:58.320 --> 0:20:01.639 and observations have to be repeatable. Yeah, so yeah, you 0:20:01.640 --> 0:20:03.400 you can't do it like have an experiment. They can 0:20:03.400 --> 0:20:06.480 only be done once. You can't do science in a vacuum, right, 0:20:06.600 --> 0:20:08.480 um you well, I guess you could do science in 0:20:08.480 --> 0:20:10.240 a vacuum, but that's you guys know what I meant. Yeah, 0:20:10.240 --> 0:20:11.840 and it has to be testable, like you can't be 0:20:12.200 --> 0:20:15.280 you know, nobody can have like a scientific experiment for 0:20:15.560 --> 0:20:18.400 is there a God? Because that's just that's not testable. 0:20:18.440 --> 0:20:22.240 It's it's not something that is you know, that's scientifically 0:20:22.359 --> 0:20:24.800 provable or disprovable. Well, I can't believe we went from 0:20:24.800 --> 0:20:27.480 putting pops to God and like the span of five minutes. Well, 0:20:27.520 --> 0:20:30.280 someone say the distance is not that far, you know, 0:20:31.160 --> 0:20:35.359 especially fans of pudding pops. I guess yeah. And sometimes 0:20:35.359 --> 0:20:38.280 you have instances where scientific principles are used to try 0:20:38.320 --> 0:20:41.960 to lend credibility to certain non scientific ideas. Yeah. Like 0:20:42.440 --> 0:20:46.320 let's say, for instance, I were to have the bones 0:20:46.359 --> 0:20:50.159 of some like you know older you know, hominid that 0:20:50.600 --> 0:20:52.439 may have you know, evolved and do a human and 0:20:52.480 --> 0:20:53.959 I tried to make the case that this is an 0:20:53.960 --> 0:20:56.960 alien skeleton, you know, and you know, and I like 0:20:57.040 --> 0:21:01.480 sort of applied some sort of pseudo scientific ideas. You know, 0:21:01.520 --> 0:21:03.280 people do this all the time where you kind of 0:21:03.320 --> 0:21:06.240 like take like a one scoop of science and one 0:21:06.240 --> 0:21:10.600 scoop of crazy and or one scoop of just extreme bias, 0:21:10.680 --> 0:21:13.840 and you know, mix the two and you know, produce 0:21:13.960 --> 0:21:15.679 this cake that a lot of people think is the 0:21:15.680 --> 0:21:18.320 real deal. Which is why everybody should be educated in science. 0:21:18.359 --> 0:21:20.920 Everybody should have the tools to apply their their critical 0:21:20.920 --> 0:21:25.040 thinking skills to a particular uh scientific problem or a 0:21:25.080 --> 0:21:29.080 scientific paper them right, and likewise, I mean, anything in 0:21:29.119 --> 0:21:31.800 science should be uh, I mean it should be just 0:21:31.880 --> 0:21:35.480 fair game for for criticism, provided you know, bring the 0:21:35.480 --> 0:21:38.600 science the science. Science is a tool that continually, you know, 0:21:38.720 --> 0:21:42.200 changes what we believe about the universe, you know, and 0:21:42.200 --> 0:21:44.760 and it's you know, nothing nothing is sacred, you know, 0:21:45.440 --> 0:21:48.000 use the tools of science to question what has come before, 0:21:48.760 --> 0:21:50.960 no doubt, no doubt. That seems like a pretty good 0:21:50.960 --> 0:21:53.520