WEBVTT - Sam Bankman-Fried Revisited 0:00:15.316 --> 0:00:22.996 Pushkin. In May of this year, I interviewed Sam Bankman 0:00:23.116 --> 0:00:26.756 Freed for this show. Sam was a very young, very 0:00:26.876 --> 0:00:32.236 rich entrepreneur and philanthropist who ran a crypto exchange called FTX. 0:00:33.076 --> 0:00:36.156 And then last week, in a matter of just a 0:00:36.156 --> 0:00:40.876 few days, FTX collapsed and filed for bankruptcy. And you know, 0:00:40.956 --> 0:00:43.596 even to say that, even to say it collapsed and 0:00:43.596 --> 0:00:47.796 filed for bankruptcy in a few days, somehow amazingly kind 0:00:47.796 --> 0:00:51.516 of understates how fast and dramatic the fall of the 0:00:51.556 --> 0:00:55.756 company and of Sam Bankman Freed was. Until last week, 0:00:56.156 --> 0:00:59.676 Sam Bankman Freed had this persona of being like a 0:00:59.836 --> 0:01:03.796 good guy. He wasn't chilling some ridiculous future where crypto 0:01:03.876 --> 0:01:06.156 was going to solve all our problems. He was running 0:01:06.196 --> 0:01:11.196 a real business, an exchange for crypto t and all along. 0:01:11.356 --> 0:01:14.316 He said. His plan was to make as much money 0:01:14.316 --> 0:01:17.876 as possible and then give it all away, and it 0:01:17.956 --> 0:01:21.276 seemed to be working. He was only thirty and already 0:01:21.276 --> 0:01:25.596 he'd given away hundreds of millions of dollars. Now the 0:01:25.676 --> 0:01:29.316 money is gone, customers and investors may never get paid back, 0:01:29.796 --> 0:01:34.236 and federal prosecutors are reportedly investigating both Sam and FTX. 0:01:35.276 --> 0:01:37.836 This week as all this was happening, I listened back 0:01:37.876 --> 0:01:40.396 to my interview with Sam from May, and there are 0:01:40.396 --> 0:01:42.836 parts that I definitely find embarrassing in light of the 0:01:42.916 --> 0:01:45.676 new news, moments when I should have challenged him more, 0:01:45.796 --> 0:01:48.916 been more skeptical, and for that matter, my whole framing 0:01:48.916 --> 0:01:51.876 of the show seems absurd, over the top. I mean, 0:01:51.956 --> 0:01:55.356 I called the show Sam Bankman Freed wants to save 0:01:55.516 --> 0:02:00.756 the world spoiler alert. He did not. And yet, and yet, 0:02:01.396 --> 0:02:04.996 I did find the interview really interesting to listen to 0:02:05.116 --> 0:02:08.076 again in light of the news. Some parts of it 0:02:08.116 --> 0:02:10.956 still seemed true, but in a really different way, and 0:02:11.076 --> 0:02:14.836 at least one thing Sam said seems very very prescient. 0:02:19.436 --> 0:02:22.556 I'm Jacob Goldstein, and this is what's your problem? But today, 0:02:22.676 --> 0:02:26.196 let's be honest, it's more of a what's my problem situation. 0:02:26.836 --> 0:02:29.876 My problem is this, I interviewed a guy who was 0:02:29.916 --> 0:02:32.396 not at all what he seemed to be, and I 0:02:32.436 --> 0:02:35.556 didn't quite see it. So what we're gonna do for 0:02:35.636 --> 0:02:39.756 today's show is we're gonna replay the original interview, and 0:02:39.876 --> 0:02:41.916 at a few points in the interview, I'm going to 0:02:41.996 --> 0:02:44.876 pop in now with a quick update based on everything 0:02:44.956 --> 0:02:49.356 that has happened since now here is my conversation with 0:02:49.396 --> 0:02:52.276 Sam Bankman Freed as it aired back in May of 0:02:52.316 --> 0:02:55.676 this year. Before we get to the interview, I just 0:02:55.756 --> 0:02:57.556 want to take a minute here and set up this 0:02:57.636 --> 0:03:02.116 one big idea, this really useful intellectual framework that drives 0:03:02.156 --> 0:03:07.196 almost everything Sam does. It's called expected value. I try 0:03:07.196 --> 0:03:09.036 to use it a lot because I think it's started 0:03:09.716 --> 0:03:14.156 is the default correct way in some senses to calculate something. 0:03:14.316 --> 0:03:17.636 It's like if you're just trying to do a generic calculation, 0:03:18.196 --> 0:03:20.716 I think it's usually the right thing to use. You 0:03:20.756 --> 0:03:24.676 can understand expected value by understanding how Sam decided to 0:03:24.716 --> 0:03:28.436 start his company, the crypto exchange FTX. He was working 0:03:28.436 --> 0:03:31.516 as a trader making millions of dollars, and when he 0:03:31.596 --> 0:03:35.036 thought about starting FTX, he knew there was a really 0:03:35.036 --> 0:03:38.236 good chance it might fail. It might ultimately be worth zero. 0:03:38.716 --> 0:03:41.116 But on the other hand, if it succeeded, it could 0:03:41.116 --> 0:03:44.716 be worth tens of billions of dollars. So here is 0:03:44.756 --> 0:03:48.676 a slightly oversimplified version of how you would use expected 0:03:48.756 --> 0:03:52.476 value in this case. Say, Sam thought there was only 0:03:52.516 --> 0:03:56.276 a one percent chance that his exchange would be really successful, 0:03:56.596 --> 0:03:58.716 but that if it were really successful, it would make 0:03:58.796 --> 0:04:02.716 him twenty billion dollars. The expected value of starting the 0:04:02.756 --> 0:04:07.356 exchange is the probability of it being successful one percent 0:04:08.196 --> 0:04:13.436 times the value if that success happens twenty billion dollars, 0:04:13.956 --> 0:04:18.236 which comes out to two hundred million dollars a lot. 0:04:19.076 --> 0:04:23.836 So in twenty nineteen, Sam started FTX, and Sam told 0:04:23.836 --> 0:04:27.356 me there is a really important lesson here about expected value. 0:04:28.156 --> 0:04:30.716 One of the sort of takeaways that often ends up 0:04:30.716 --> 0:04:34.756 coming from really thinking hard and critically about expected values 0:04:34.956 --> 0:04:37.316 is that you should go for it way more than 0:04:37.476 --> 0:04:40.916 is generally understood. Go big. You should really go really big, 0:04:40.956 --> 0:04:44.196 even if you probably will fail and wind up with zero. 0:04:44.556 --> 0:04:47.276 That's absolutely right. And I think one of the intuitions 0:04:47.316 --> 0:04:50.396 for why that's the case, for why I think going 0:04:50.436 --> 0:04:53.236 big is often the right thing to do well if 0:04:53.276 --> 0:04:55.956 you think about it, like you know, you've got obviously 0:04:55.956 --> 0:05:00.316 a number of options available to you. Somewhere on the 0:05:00.356 --> 0:05:03.876 far right hand side of distributions, is like the best 0:05:03.916 --> 0:05:08.036 possible thing, meaning the really good outcomes. That's right, the 0:05:08.076 --> 0:05:11.436 best possible thing you could imagine happening, And the best 0:05:11.476 --> 0:05:16.156 possible thing is probably really good. You know, it's probably 0:05:16.396 --> 0:05:20.796 orders of magnitude bigger than whatever you're sort of expecting 0:05:20.836 --> 0:05:24.076 to do. Right, it's not a little better, it's wildly better. 0:05:24.076 --> 0:05:27.756 It's almost unimaginably better, that's right. And if you're thinking about, well, 0:05:27.796 --> 0:05:29.636 if I found a company, how is it going to go? 0:05:30.076 --> 0:05:32.156 You know, you're probably thinking this might be a million 0:05:32.156 --> 0:05:35.676 dollar company, right, But the right hand distribution, the right 0:05:35.716 --> 0:05:37.556 hand tail of that is going to be a billion 0:05:37.556 --> 0:05:41.396 dollar company, and that's a thousand times bigger. And so 0:05:41.516 --> 0:05:44.276 in order for it to be justified to choose that decision, 0:05:44.356 --> 0:05:46.636 if you really do care linearly about money, if you 0:05:46.636 --> 0:05:50.316 really do think that getting that marginal dollars worth a lot, 0:05:51.156 --> 0:05:53.716 you know, even once you already have a lot of money, 0:05:54.836 --> 0:05:58.076 then it should lead you to think that that, you know, 0:05:58.716 --> 0:06:01.516 the best outcomes might be outcomes that have a ninety 0:06:01.556 --> 0:06:03.916 nine percent chance of failure, right, because in ninety nine 0:06:03.956 --> 0:06:05.996 percent chance of failure and a one percent chance of 0:06:06.036 --> 0:06:09.036 that billion is still that's ten million, and that's a lot. 0:06:09.756 --> 0:06:12.796 And so any time that light there is some nonzero 0:06:12.996 --> 0:06:16.276 and non negligible chance of a really really good outcome 0:06:16.716 --> 0:06:20.636 are times when you're gonna be incentivized more than seems 0:06:20.716 --> 0:06:26.196 natural probably to choose extreme outcomes. Okay, that was Sam 0:06:26.196 --> 0:06:28.716 back in May, and listening back now, I have to 0:06:28.756 --> 0:06:31.676 say this part kind of holds up, but in a 0:06:31.756 --> 0:06:35.996 really different light. It's basically saying you should make massive, 0:06:36.156 --> 0:06:39.316 long shot bets with a high probability of failure if 0:06:39.356 --> 0:06:42.636 the potential payoff is big enough. And you know, that's 0:06:42.676 --> 0:06:44.636 clearly what Sam was doing for the first part of 0:06:44.636 --> 0:06:46.556 his career when the price of crypto was going up, 0:06:46.556 --> 0:06:49.076 and he kept making these big bets and having huge successes. 0:06:49.396 --> 0:06:52.156 Now we don't know all the details of what happened 0:06:52.196 --> 0:06:56.276 at Sam's crypto exchange FTX before it collapsed, but remember 0:06:56.676 --> 0:06:59.996 one of the key things that prosecutors are apparently looking 0:06:59.996 --> 0:07:04.476 into is FTX allegedly loan customer funds to a trading 0:07:04.516 --> 0:07:08.756 firm also controlled by Sam making that loan. Deciding to 0:07:08.756 --> 0:07:11.476 make the loan, that is a kind of bet, right. 0:07:11.796 --> 0:07:14.356 It's a bet that the training firm will make profitable 0:07:14.396 --> 0:07:17.316 trades or investments with the borrowed money, a bet that 0:07:17.356 --> 0:07:19.756 the market will go up, the money will be returned, 0:07:19.796 --> 0:07:22.836 and nobody will get in trouble. It's possible that Sam 0:07:22.916 --> 0:07:26.636 decided that was a bet that had positive expected value, 0:07:26.956 --> 0:07:29.956 and he went ahead and did it. Okay, now let's 0:07:29.956 --> 0:07:32.276 get back to the original interview. At this point, we're 0:07:32.316 --> 0:07:36.636 talking about how expected value shapes Sam's thinking about philanthropy, 0:07:37.036 --> 0:07:39.996 and what he says is when he's thinking about giving 0:07:39.996 --> 0:07:42.716 away money, he doesn't just think about the world today. 0:07:42.796 --> 0:07:47.596 He thinks about like the whole future of humanity. How 0:07:47.596 --> 0:07:50.916 many people will live if we play our cards right, 0:07:50.956 --> 0:07:53.316 as a world, like in the ninetieth percentile outcome, how 0:07:53.316 --> 0:07:55.876 many people will live in the future. The answer is trillions, 0:07:55.996 --> 0:08:00.036 probably maybe hundreds of trillions. Right, It's thousands of times 0:08:00.116 --> 0:08:03.236 more than the number of people who have ever lived. 0:08:03.716 --> 0:08:07.116 And so that's just that's a huge factor. Right, Anything 0:08:07.156 --> 0:08:10.036 that we do that actually has packed on the whole 0:08:10.076 --> 0:08:13.636 future of the world is massively important. It's kind of 0:08:13.676 --> 0:08:15.996 a ridiculous way to think at some level, right, it 0:08:16.076 --> 0:08:19.476 just gets so big then, like you're just some guy 0:08:19.636 --> 0:08:22.276 with a lot of money at some level, right, talking 0:08:22.316 --> 0:08:24.796 about like trillions of people in the whole future of humanity. 0:08:24.836 --> 0:08:27.836 Like it gets weird, Right, it does get really weird. 0:08:28.116 --> 0:08:30.756 You should really stress uses and and think like, Okay, 0:08:30.796 --> 0:08:33.436 do I really believe this? Like do I really actually 0:08:33.436 --> 0:08:37.356 think that there's compelling evidence that like, you know, these 0:08:37.436 --> 0:08:39.516 numbers that I'm looking at are as big as I'm 0:08:39.556 --> 0:08:42.756 claiming they are, or am I kind of bullshitting myself 0:08:42.756 --> 0:08:45.316 on this? Like, you know, you should absolutely have some 0:08:45.876 --> 0:08:49.596 humility around that, but but it's not totally implausible. And 0:08:49.636 --> 0:08:52.436 there are examples of people people who we've heard of 0:08:52.516 --> 0:08:54.436 were very famous, and people who no one has ever 0:08:54.516 --> 0:08:59.116 heard of, who have had massive, massive impact on the world, 0:08:59.156 --> 0:09:02.716 who have had that massive multiplier, and so it's not 0:09:02.796 --> 0:09:06.316 totally implausible. And so you know, I think that, like, 0:09:06.876 --> 0:09:10.276 while we should absolutely have you know, ay dosa humility 0:09:10.316 --> 0:09:14.396 towards extreme outcomes, you know, we should also acknowledge that 0:09:14.476 --> 0:09:17.676 they can be real and that often the highest expected 0:09:17.756 --> 0:09:22.196 value things are in fact pushing directly towards them. Well, 0:09:22.236 --> 0:09:26.396 and in fact, you did hit the extreme right tail 0:09:26.476 --> 0:09:30.316 of the distribution in work, right, you did just get 0:09:30.476 --> 0:09:34.196 implausibly rich in a ridiculously short period of time. So 0:09:34.236 --> 0:09:37.796 at least on that one it worked. That's right, and 0:09:37.836 --> 0:09:39.836 I think it's that's certainly it's been a big update 0:09:39.916 --> 0:09:43.356 towards me in the direction of life. This stuff is plausible. 0:09:43.956 --> 0:09:46.076 Uh huh. So the fact that you got so rich 0:09:46.156 --> 0:09:48.636 so fast in crypto, does it make does it push 0:09:48.676 --> 0:09:52.476 your altruism toward like Welsh shit? If I could make 0:09:52.516 --> 0:09:55.716 twenty billion dollars in three years, everybody on Earth could 0:09:55.756 --> 0:09:58.516 in fact die from a pandemic or from some out 0:09:58.516 --> 0:10:00.796 of control AI and I should spend some of the 0:10:00.836 --> 0:10:04.236 money to try and reduce the probabilities of that. I mean, 0:10:04.516 --> 0:10:06.596 is it like that? Yeah, it absolutely does. I think 0:10:06.596 --> 0:10:08.476 it absolutely does make me think, you know what, like 0:10:09.236 --> 0:10:14.156 these you know, really extreme outcomes are probably plausible, and 0:10:14.196 --> 0:10:16.556 they're probably plausible enough that I should be taking them 0:10:16.556 --> 0:10:21.236 really seriously, you know, and that has pretty profound implications, 0:10:21.236 --> 0:10:25.676 I think for what we should be doing. So listening 0:10:25.676 --> 0:10:27.876 back to that section now, I do feel like there 0:10:27.996 --> 0:10:30.356 was a moment in there when I was starting to 0:10:30.396 --> 0:10:33.156 push in the right direction. It was when Sam started 0:10:33.196 --> 0:10:36.196 talking about the whole future of humanity thing and helping 0:10:36.276 --> 0:10:39.636 trillions of people, and I was like, come on, trillions 0:10:39.636 --> 0:10:41.796 of people, the whole future of humanity. That seems like 0:10:41.836 --> 0:10:45.916 a bit much. But Sam had a reasonable answer there. 0:10:46.036 --> 0:10:48.996 He said, yes, we should have some humility and thinking 0:10:49.036 --> 0:10:51.396 about things this big. But you know, look, he said, 0:10:51.756 --> 0:10:55.596 there are people who have had really really profound effects 0:10:55.676 --> 0:10:59.356 on humanity, and why shouldn't I, Sam Bankman freed try 0:10:59.396 --> 0:11:01.876 to be one of those people, and that made sense 0:11:01.916 --> 0:11:05.596 to me. It did seem reasonable, and I think that 0:11:05.796 --> 0:11:09.796 is part of what was so appealing and convincing about Sam. 0:11:09.836 --> 0:11:12.956 I think that is part of why I and so 0:11:12.996 --> 0:11:17.236 many other people really believed him and wanted to believe him. 0:11:17.276 --> 0:11:21.836 He seemed guided by this sort of straightforward logic. He 0:11:21.956 --> 0:11:27.396 seemed like a very smart, very reasonable person. In a minute, 0:11:27.556 --> 0:11:30.556 we'll have more from the May interview about Sam's role 0:11:30.636 --> 0:11:46.156 as one of the biggest donors to democratic political candidates. Now, 0:11:46.276 --> 0:11:48.556 let's go back to the show as it originally aired 0:11:48.636 --> 0:11:51.836 in May of this year. Sam told me he's given 0:11:51.876 --> 0:11:55.636 away about two hundred million dollars so far, which obviously 0:11:55.756 --> 0:11:58.596 is a lot, but it is also somewhere around one 0:11:58.676 --> 0:12:01.916 percent of what he plans to give away eventually. His 0:12:02.036 --> 0:12:06.396 giving has been broad anti poverty, animal welfare, healthcare, but 0:12:06.476 --> 0:12:09.596 he has started to focus on a few areas. One 0:12:09.636 --> 0:12:13.556 of the biggest is pandemic preparedness. That is a category 0:12:13.596 --> 0:12:17.076 that fits right into that expected value framework. You know, 0:12:17.476 --> 0:12:22.036 a low probability but super deadly pandemic is worth spending 0:12:22.116 --> 0:12:25.316 a lot to prevent. Another place, where he's been giving 0:12:25.636 --> 0:12:28.676 is politics. Sam was one of the biggest donors to 0:12:28.756 --> 0:12:33.516 President Biden's twenty twenty campaign. More recently, he donated over 0:12:33.636 --> 0:12:37.196 ten million dollars to support a candidate in a Democratic 0:12:37.236 --> 0:12:41.116 primary for a congressional seat in Oregon, largely because that 0:12:41.236 --> 0:12:45.396 candidate wanted to focus on pandemic preparedness. The primary was 0:12:45.436 --> 0:12:48.876 held just last week, and Sam's candidate lost by a lot. 0:12:49.676 --> 0:12:51.436 I think that there are a lot of takeaways from it, 0:12:51.596 --> 0:12:55.316 and you know, I think that might do it again. 0:12:55.356 --> 0:12:57.356 I would do it a bit differently than last time. 0:12:58.196 --> 0:13:01.996 But you know, fundamentally, I think it was a well 0:13:02.076 --> 0:13:04.796 fought race. I think that you know, he had a 0:13:04.836 --> 0:13:08.516 real shot. And you know, going back to this discussion 0:13:08.516 --> 0:13:12.636 of expected values, right like, if you're donating blagal races, 0:13:12.716 --> 0:13:14.996 that's that you think your candidates are ninety nine percent 0:13:15.076 --> 0:13:18.556 to weigh, you're almost certainly doing something right because that 0:13:18.596 --> 0:13:22.396 person doesn't need your money exactly. You should be donating 0:13:22.476 --> 0:13:25.836 such that you think that you have a pretty substantial 0:13:25.916 --> 0:13:29.556 chance of losing. And you know, I first stand by that. 0:13:29.716 --> 0:13:31.236 Do you expect you'll give a lot of money in 0:13:31.276 --> 0:13:34.436 the twenty twenty four election cycle? I would guess. So, 0:13:34.516 --> 0:13:36.196 I don't know for sure, it's going to depend on 0:13:36.236 --> 0:13:38.996 who's running, but you know I would guess so, well, 0:13:39.076 --> 0:13:41.756 let's say Donald Trump runs for president. Would that cause 0:13:41.756 --> 0:13:43.796 you to probably give a lot of money to the 0:13:43.836 --> 0:13:46.716 person who's running against him. That's that's a pretty decent guess. 0:13:47.196 --> 0:13:49.636 And you know, I think that I'm going to be 0:13:49.636 --> 0:13:52.876 looking a lot less at like political party um from 0:13:52.876 --> 0:13:56.236 that perspective, and a lot more about you know, uh 0:13:56.596 --> 0:13:59.396 same governance Like that is you know at it's for 0:13:59.796 --> 0:14:05.196 the thing that I think I care the most governing governance. 0:14:05.396 --> 0:14:09.076 I think the United States has both a big opportunity, 0:14:09.276 --> 0:14:14.476 big responsibility to the world to shepherd the West in 0:14:15.236 --> 0:14:19.956 a powerful but responsible manner, and that everything that we 0:14:20.036 --> 0:14:24.156 do there has massive, massive ripple effects on what the 0:14:24.236 --> 0:14:28.756 future looks like. You've talked before about being surprised at 0:14:28.796 --> 0:14:32.756 how little money is in politics. It is quite small, 0:14:32.796 --> 0:14:35.316 the amount of money that is donated relative to how 0:14:35.396 --> 0:14:40.596 much money the government spends. Right, does that lead you 0:14:40.676 --> 0:14:43.396 to want to donate a lot? But does it follow 0:14:43.436 --> 0:14:46.356 from that that, like, you'll probably donate a lot of money? 0:14:46.516 --> 0:14:49.836 It follows that I might in the end. That's basically 0:14:49.876 --> 0:14:52.916 what I think, um, I think that like there are 0:14:53.036 --> 0:14:56.156 in some ways, there's you know, in some ways surprisingly 0:14:56.276 --> 0:14:59.916 little money in politics and given sort of the skipe 0:14:59.916 --> 0:15:03.116 of its impact. Note that doesn't necessarily mean they're good 0:15:03.116 --> 0:15:06.236 things to do, um donating politics right, Like it might 0:15:06.276 --> 0:15:08.396 be that sure, but like how are you actually going 0:15:08.436 --> 0:15:10.756 to do anything? You full? You know, maybe that's how 0:15:10.796 --> 0:15:13.596 it turns out, but but maybe not, you know, I mean, 0:15:13.636 --> 0:15:16.236 it's not necessarily the case that more money can have 0:15:16.276 --> 0:15:19.476 a meaningful effect on the outcome. That's right, It's not 0:15:19.516 --> 0:15:22.916 necessarily the case, but it certainly gestures a little bit 0:15:22.916 --> 0:15:26.876 in that direction. I mean, I imagine you have some 0:15:26.916 --> 0:15:30.356 probability distribution in your mind of how much money you 0:15:30.436 --> 0:15:34.876 might give in the next election cycle, Like give me 0:15:34.916 --> 0:15:42.356 some number I would guess north of one hundred million UM. 0:15:42.756 --> 0:15:45.156 And you know, as for how much north of that 0:15:45.316 --> 0:15:48.516 if I don't know, you know, it really does depend 0:15:48.596 --> 0:15:51.316 on what happens, Like it's really dependent on exactly who's 0:15:51.356 --> 0:15:54.396 running where for what like like these these are are 0:15:54.396 --> 0:15:58.356 a super contingent thing. But but yeah, I think that 0:15:58.476 --> 0:16:02.156 gives maybe some sense of what the what the sort 0:16:02.196 --> 0:16:05.876 of like scale might be here more than one hundred 0:16:05.916 --> 0:16:10.996 million sort of spread across many organizations, but towards the 0:16:11.036 --> 0:16:14.636 twenty twenty four election. So if that's a floor, what's 0:16:14.676 --> 0:16:19.636 the ceiling? Like a billion? Might you give a billion? Yeah? 0:16:19.676 --> 0:16:22.516 I think that's a decent life thing to look at 0:16:22.676 --> 0:16:25.476 as a as a sort of like I mean, I 0:16:25.836 --> 0:16:27.836 would hate to say like hard ceiling, because whom knows 0:16:27.876 --> 0:16:29.796 what was going to happen between now and then, But 0:16:29.956 --> 0:16:32.596 as like at least sort of a soft ceiling, I 0:16:32.636 --> 0:16:36.436 would say, yeah, okay, So so the ballpark is like 0:16:36.916 --> 0:16:39.996 one hundred million ish to a billion ish, with again 0:16:40.036 --> 0:16:42.076 a lot of caveats on this, and you know, there's 0:16:42.076 --> 0:16:44.396 a world WHI should end up being close to zero 0:16:44.556 --> 0:16:47.036 if they're you know, if things just work out such 0:16:47.076 --> 0:16:49.756 that there isn't Is there much I'm excited about? Like 0:16:49.956 --> 0:16:52.676 that seems like a very low probability to me, based 0:16:52.716 --> 0:16:55.156 on what I know about you in the world. Yeah, 0:16:55.196 --> 0:16:57.476 it's I think it's I think it's very low that 0:16:57.476 --> 0:16:59.476 it's actually gonna end up being zero. That does seem 0:16:59.476 --> 0:17:03.316 pretty unlikely. Yeah, a billion seems way more likely than 0:17:03.436 --> 0:17:08.036 zero to me. I think it's really right. Um, So 0:17:08.076 --> 0:17:10.716 I think the most anybody gave last time, if I 0:17:10.756 --> 0:17:13.516 have the right numbers is two hundred and fifteen million. 0:17:14.356 --> 0:17:17.516 That's for the twenty twenty cycle, the last presidential cycle. 0:17:18.756 --> 0:17:21.276 It seems like you'll probably give more than that. Based 0:17:21.316 --> 0:17:23.636 only on what you've told me, I think it is 0:17:23.676 --> 0:17:28.396 eminently possible that I think that that would not surprise me. 0:17:31.116 --> 0:17:33.516 Just to pop in here again in the present in November. 0:17:34.556 --> 0:17:38.796 Back in May, when this interview was published, this part 0:17:38.836 --> 0:17:41.156 of the interview actually made a little bit of news. 0:17:41.756 --> 0:17:45.076 NBC News and Politico both reported based on the interview 0:17:45.156 --> 0:17:48.476 that Sam might give a billion dollars in the twenty 0:17:48.516 --> 0:17:52.716 twenty four campaign. So that happened, and then some time passed, 0:17:53.076 --> 0:17:56.156 and then in another interview just last month in October, 0:17:56.556 --> 0:17:59.196 Sam walked this part of the interview back. He said 0:17:59.196 --> 0:18:01.236 it was a dumb quote to give on his part, 0:18:01.676 --> 0:18:03.556 And at the time when when I saw this news 0:18:03.676 --> 0:18:05.756 last month, I thought it was just, you know, that 0:18:05.836 --> 0:18:10.116 his philanthropic priorities had changed. But now, in light of 0:18:10.156 --> 0:18:13.396 what we know now, it seems like maybe Sam knew 0:18:13.396 --> 0:18:16.316 by October that he just wasn't going to have a 0:18:16.356 --> 0:18:20.316 billion dollars to give in the next presidential cycle. One 0:18:20.316 --> 0:18:22.396 other thing pops out at me. From this part of 0:18:22.396 --> 0:18:25.316 the interview, and that is the moment when Sam says 0:18:25.476 --> 0:18:28.236 his giving for the twenty twenty four election might be 0:18:28.436 --> 0:18:31.676 close to zero, close to nothing. And I just dismissed 0:18:31.716 --> 0:18:34.156 that idea out of hand. But of course, given what 0:18:34.156 --> 0:18:36.556 we know now, the situation now, it might be the 0:18:36.596 --> 0:18:40.556 most clearly true thing he told me in the whole interview. Okay, 0:18:40.876 --> 0:18:42.796 we're gonna go back to the interview now. We're going 0:18:42.876 --> 0:18:45.756 to talk more about philanthropy and also a little but 0:18:45.916 --> 0:18:49.356 in retrospect, not enough about the relationship between his political 0:18:49.396 --> 0:18:54.276 donations and government regulation of the crypto industry. I've heard 0:18:54.316 --> 0:18:58.036 you say that you know, at some points over the 0:18:58.036 --> 0:19:00.756 next few years, you hope to find opportunities where you 0:19:00.796 --> 0:19:06.076 can spend give away like a billion dollars really quickly. 0:19:07.076 --> 0:19:08.916 What are some of the places you think that might happen. 0:19:08.916 --> 0:19:10.956 I mean, the election, the twenty twenty four election is 0:19:10.996 --> 0:19:14.556 clearly one. What are a few others? I think pandemic 0:19:14.596 --> 0:19:16.596 prevention is potentially one of them. I think you look 0:19:16.636 --> 0:19:19.676 at like how much would it cost to you know, 0:19:20.116 --> 0:19:23.356 really definitely prevent the next pandemic or you can never 0:19:23.396 --> 0:19:26.276 definitely prevent it, but to have you know, a really 0:19:26.316 --> 0:19:28.596 good shot at it. I think you're probably talking tens 0:19:28.596 --> 0:19:32.356 of billions of dollars, which is crazy that that governments 0:19:32.356 --> 0:19:36.356 aren't spending that money, right, that's right, that really should 0:19:36.356 --> 0:19:38.156 be government spending it. And part of this might be 0:19:38.196 --> 0:19:40.756 working with governments that because it's not that much like 0:19:41.156 --> 0:19:43.116 if truly if they could reduce the risk of a 0:19:43.116 --> 0:19:47.756 pandemic by half, say for thirty billion dollars a year, like, 0:19:48.636 --> 0:19:51.956 do you actually think that is that true? Or fifty billion? 0:19:52.076 --> 0:19:54.676 I think I think something like that's probably true. I 0:19:54.676 --> 0:19:57.556 think something that's like not too far off from that 0:19:57.676 --> 0:20:00.836 order of magnitude, and that probably you know, by the 0:20:00.916 --> 0:20:04.036 time you're talking about you know, many tens of million 0:20:04.116 --> 0:20:07.436 billions of dollars um. You know, that's something that you're 0:20:07.476 --> 0:20:10.076 probably going to need to have government stepping in on. 0:20:10.276 --> 0:20:12.876 But you know, I would be happy to throw in 0:20:12.916 --> 0:20:17.116 a fair bit to health facilitate that. So I should 0:20:17.156 --> 0:20:20.596 actually I should have asked this earlier. But to what 0:20:20.796 --> 0:20:27.196 extent are your political donations a pandemic prevention strategy? So 0:20:27.516 --> 0:20:29.476 I think most of them have been so far, and 0:20:29.756 --> 0:20:32.716 you know, going forward, like there may become other policy, 0:20:32.876 --> 0:20:35.316 you know, things like AI policy, that that that that 0:20:35.356 --> 0:20:37.556 you end up being really important. And so it's not 0:20:37.596 --> 0:20:40.156 to say that like pandemics are the only things that 0:20:40.196 --> 0:20:42.476 are ever going to matter to me policywise, but that 0:20:42.556 --> 0:20:44.476 has been the big one so far, and it's the 0:20:44.556 --> 0:20:47.796 idea there, like tens of billions of dollars a year 0:20:47.876 --> 0:20:50.956 to significantly reduce the risk of another pandemic is not 0:20:50.996 --> 0:20:54.236 that much for the government, but it's more than you have, right, 0:20:54.276 --> 0:20:56.636 So you need a lever You can't you can't actually 0:20:56.676 --> 0:20:59.756 spend all of your money and meaningfully reduce the chances 0:20:59.756 --> 0:21:02.516 of another pandemic. And so if you can use political 0:21:02.516 --> 0:21:05.196 donations to elect candidates who want to spend money to 0:21:05.236 --> 0:21:09.516 prevent a pandemic, that works, that's right. So you're giving 0:21:10.196 --> 0:21:13.676 lots of money to political candidates. You're also doing a 0:21:13.676 --> 0:21:18.636 lot of work to shape regulation of crypto in the US. 0:21:19.116 --> 0:21:21.916 Tell me about the overlap between those two things. So 0:21:22.556 --> 0:21:26.196 most of the giving has not been done with crypto 0:21:26.356 --> 0:21:29.076 in mind, and I have been doing a ton of 0:21:29.156 --> 0:21:34.076 policy engagement on that, but that's mostly going to DC 0:21:34.316 --> 0:21:37.796 and talking with policymakers. I mean, here's the narrow version 0:21:37.796 --> 0:21:41.196 of the question. Is part of what you want from 0:21:41.236 --> 0:21:47.716 your political donations, some particular outcome in cryptoregulation that is 0:21:47.756 --> 0:21:50.956 not a big part of it. That is where we 0:21:51.076 --> 0:21:53.236 left the main part of the interview back in May, 0:21:53.876 --> 0:21:56.236 and when we zoom out now and look at what 0:21:56.396 --> 0:22:01.076 happened at FTX, you know, what Sam did is still 0:22:01.116 --> 0:22:05.636 really hazy. The details will probably emerge over time, but 0:22:05.676 --> 0:22:09.676 for now, one big question that is really interesting to 0:22:09.756 --> 0:22:16.116 me is was the basic altruism story Sam was telling true. 0:22:16.676 --> 0:22:18.476 Was he really trying to earn as much as he 0:22:18.476 --> 0:22:21.076 could to give it all away and help humanity or 0:22:21.156 --> 0:22:24.836 was that whole story a lie. I don't think we 0:22:24.916 --> 0:22:27.916 know the answer to that for sure yet, but it 0:22:27.996 --> 0:22:31.516 is possible that in spite of everything, that is really 0:22:31.636 --> 0:22:35.236 what he was after, That was really his intent. And 0:22:35.316 --> 0:22:38.276 if that is true, if he did mean to do 0:22:38.396 --> 0:22:40.676 great things in the world, and if he did do 0:22:40.756 --> 0:22:43.236 some of the bad things that have been alleged in 0:22:43.356 --> 0:22:46.596 order to do those good things, well that is a 0:22:46.836 --> 0:22:51.676 very complex, very human story about good intentions and bad 0:22:51.756 --> 0:22:57.396 decisions and ultimately, maybe Hugres He'll be back in a 0:22:57.436 --> 0:23:08.876 minute with the Lightning Round. Here is the Lightning Round 0:23:08.876 --> 0:23:11.716 with Sam Bankman Freed as it originally ran back in May, 0:23:12.316 --> 0:23:15.116 several of the answers played pretty differently now in light 0:23:15.156 --> 0:23:18.636 of the collapse of FTX. Let me just let's just 0:23:18.676 --> 0:23:21.356 do a lightning round a few quick questions and you 0:23:21.396 --> 0:23:25.476 can answer them fast. What's the least rational thing you do? 0:23:26.476 --> 0:23:28.916 Least rational thing? And I spend way too much time 0:23:28.996 --> 0:23:32.516 like aimlessly browsing my Facebook fee. Is it true you 0:23:32.596 --> 0:23:34.716 still sleep on a bean bag chair? And if so, 0:23:34.836 --> 0:23:38.556