Speaker 1: The volume.
Speaker 2: The Emirates NBA Cup is here. You can win big
Speaker 2: getting in on the action at DraftKings sports Book. It's cool,
Speaker 2: official sports betting partner of the NBA. All thirty teams
Speaker 2: split into six groups every Tuesday and Friday, playing for
Speaker 2: the right to advance in a single elimination in season turney.
Speaker 2: It was great last year, culminating in the NBA Cup
Speaker 2: Championship in Vegas. First time. Here's something special new Draft
Speaker 2: Kings customers bet five bucks to get one hundred and
Speaker 2: fifty bucks in bonus bets. If your bet wins score big,
Speaker 2: use the code callin. So you download the DraftKings sports
Speaker 2: Book app, please use the code colin. New customers get
Speaker 2: one hundred and fifty in bonus bets betting just five
Speaker 2: bucks only on DraftKings. The Crown is yours.
Speaker 3: Gambling problem call one eight hundred gambler In New York
Speaker 3: call eight seven seven eight ope and WY or text
Speaker 3: hope and Y four six seven three six nine. In Connecticut.
Speaker 3: Help is available for problem gambling. Call eight eight eight
Speaker 3: seven eight nine seven seven seven seven or visit CCPG
Speaker 3: dot org. Please play responsibly on behalf of boothill CA
Speaker 3: has Seena when resorting Kansas twenty one and over. Agent
Speaker 3: eligibility varies by jurisdiction VOYD in Ontario Bonus Betskspire one
Speaker 3: hundred and sixty eight hours after issue INCE four. Additional
Speaker 3: terms and responsible gaming resources see dknng Don Coe slash
Speaker 3: b ball.
Speaker 2: All right, Chad Milman is going to stop on By
Speaker 2: in about ten minutes. That was a tough watch. Thursday
Speaker 2: Night Football twenty six eighteen. Philadelphia played like crap in
Speaker 2: the first half and came back to win. Let's be
Speaker 2: honest behind Saquon Barkley this. You know, Philadelphia is such
Speaker 2: a talented team, but I think what tonight honestly look
Speaker 2: like You're getting into week ten, week eleven, it's a
Speaker 2: short week. Philadelphia looked tired. Philadelphia look beat up. They
Speaker 2: look tired. You know, division rivalry games are usually pretty physical.
Speaker 2: I think it's disturbing how Philadelphia, much better roster than
Speaker 2: Washington couldn't get anything going in the first half. You know,
Speaker 2: it wasn't until the last final drives when you know
Speaker 2: they kind of cut loose. It's just you have to
Speaker 2: be a better football team than that. Eagles through six
Speaker 2: and zero when Saquon Barkley rushes for one hundred plus yards,
Speaker 2: so he's completely changed the offense Jalen Hurts, and there
Speaker 2: were times tonight in the first half when Jalen Hurts
Speaker 2: missed AJ Brown badly. I'm like a twelve fifteen yard out,
Speaker 2: and you know, he's just the savior of the offense.
Speaker 2: I find it remarkable. You know, nobody in the NFL
Speaker 2: loves the trade to their rivals. It's sort of a
Speaker 2: no no, you know, to me, as long as you're
Speaker 2: not trading like your best player. It is unbelievable. The
Speaker 2: New York Giants allowed and it was the most predictable
Speaker 2: thing in the world. Saquon Barkley, their best player by
Speaker 2: a lot, to go to the Philadelphia Eagles. Jesus. I mean,
Speaker 2: that's just not good GMing. And I don't know if
Speaker 2: the Giants are going to clean house. But that's the
Speaker 2: kind of thing that gets you fired. And Barkley's a
Speaker 2: remarkable player, you know. You know, it's really cracks me up.
Speaker 2: The media overreacts to everything, and a lot of it
Speaker 2: is the media is much younger than it used to be.
Speaker 2: Is that the media, you know, companies now don't have
Speaker 2: the money, especially traditional media. You know, they're going to
Speaker 2: get young and cheap in the media. So a lot
Speaker 2: of times the media is thirty one years old, twenty
Speaker 2: eight years old. Their reaction to stuff is like it's
Speaker 2: never happened before. But that's their life. You know, I've
Speaker 2: been doing this so long now, and I'm believing that's
Speaker 2: not a humble brag, you know, it's it's sometimes I
Speaker 2: look at the media and I think, guys, this is
Speaker 2: it's everything cyclical. I mean virtually politics is cyclical. Everything
Speaker 2: is cyclical. Tech, the industry is not very old, but
Speaker 2: it feels cyclical. You get ups and downs. Everybody overreacts
Speaker 2: to everything. And earlier this year, you know, or was
Speaker 2: it last year the off season, there was this big
Speaker 2: complaint that running backs are not getting paid, and it's like,
Speaker 2: take a deep breath. Safeties have never been paid. You
Speaker 2: tight ends have always been underpaid. Interior offensive linemen don't
Speaker 2: get paid unless you're the la rams. They pay theirs.
Speaker 2: Running Backs are always going to be valuable because a
Speaker 2: running back is essential for a young quarterback. For instance,
Speaker 2: all quarterbacks are better. I mean, Jalen Hurts is not
Speaker 2: a kid anymore, but all quarterbacks are better the good
Speaker 2: running back. Well, quarterbacks the most essential piece in the league. Secondly,
Speaker 2: running backs, whether gets harsh, whether it gets colder, it
Speaker 2: gets windier. November December, January, running games become more essential.
Speaker 2: Not to mention, you know, our running back is such
Speaker 2: a great piece, not just not just to set the
Speaker 2: tempo of a team, but when you lead, and good
Speaker 2: teams lead, and so a lot of times are running
Speaker 2: back eats up the clock. So good teams are always
Speaker 2: going to want a good running back. I mean, Philadelphia
Speaker 2: is a good team. Excellent running back Isaah pa Checo
Speaker 2: when he comes back, will be so valuable to the
Speaker 2: Kansas City Chiefs. James Cook for the Buffalo Bills has
Speaker 2: changed everything. Dereck Henry for the Ravens. I mean, look
Speaker 2: at Cincinnati, one of the best quarterbacks in the league.
Speaker 2: Let Joe Mixon go. Bengals would die for a twelve
Speaker 2: play drive, nine runs with Joe Mixon to keep their
Speaker 2: awful defense off the field. The Detroit Lions have two
Speaker 2: excellent running backs, so that this idea that running backs
Speaker 2: were going to you know, disappear into the ether. The reports.
Speaker 2: I said this on FS one. I set up multiple
Speaker 2: times take a deep breath. There was always going to
Speaker 2: be a market for Austin Eckler. You know, Washington's like, hey,
Speaker 2: we need you. You don't have to get thirty carries,
Speaker 2: but we need you. So there's excellent young running backs
Speaker 2: in the league. And Saquon Barkley is so valuable. This
Speaker 2: is a team that's good. They often play with the league,
Speaker 2: and he was like a closer tonight. He was just
Speaker 2: so dependable late in the football game. I will say,
Speaker 2: if these are two of the best teams in the NFC,
Speaker 2: then the AFC is still superior to the NFC. But
Speaker 2: I also think Jalen Hurts allows Saquon Barkley, excuse me,
Speaker 2: allows Jalen Hurts to throw less in a six game
Speaker 2: winning streak. He's only had two turnovers. So Jalen Hurts
Speaker 2: can throw twenty two times. He didn't have to throw
Speaker 2: thirty four times. So it frustrates me sometimes. And I
Speaker 2: see this in the political media. You know, to the
Speaker 2: Trump election. It's listen, the election was decided by a
Speaker 2: million six votes or something like that in the country
Speaker 2: of three hundred and fifty million people. And you can
Speaker 2: see from the appointees, you know, Trump. Trump is almost
Speaker 2: going to be a polarizing personality and a polarizing president.
Speaker 2: You know, he'll create great passion from the blue team.
Speaker 2: You go to the midterm elections, the Senate, the House,
Speaker 2: things change. It's just, you know, nothing, nothing lasts forever.
Speaker 2: So running backs are very, very valuable. I also think,
Speaker 2: you know, it's like in the NBA. Remember it was
Speaker 2: the small ball League and everybody got small, and then
Speaker 2: here comes Jokis and here comes Giannis, and you know,
Speaker 2: the Boston Celtics are like, let's get a big, let's
Speaker 2: get poor Zingis. And now you know, with the emergence
Speaker 2: of some of these young stars like a Wemby, you
Speaker 2: just have to have size. You're just in the NBA,
Speaker 2: you're just not gonna win a championship. I mean, the
Speaker 2: Julius Randalls Sea, We'll take Karl Anthony Towns. We need
Speaker 2: more size if we want to match up with Jiannis,
Speaker 2: Embiid and Poor Zingis in the East. I mean, it's
Speaker 2: amazing how many true big men. Anthony Davis is the
Speaker 2: best player in the Lakers, Jannis on Milwaukee, Jokic, Wemby,
Speaker 2: There's all sorts of good players. Check Holmgren such a
Speaker 2: good player for Okay, see he's not as good as SGA,
Speaker 2: but a great player. So I mean one team Minnesota,
Speaker 2: I mean it has been kind of reboot as a
Speaker 2: franchise before Karl Anthony town got traded because they went
Speaker 2: and got Rudy Gobert and Karl Anthony Towns. They went
Speaker 2: and got two centers. Everything, everything over time either re emerges, emerges, regresses.
Speaker 2: To the mean, take a deep breath, It's all going
Speaker 2: to be okay, you know. I also think what's happening
Speaker 2: last weekend was a great weekend for underdogs. And I
Speaker 2: thought tonight when Washington, I couldn't you couldn't figure the
Speaker 2: first half out. I mean you look at the stats.
Speaker 2: Washington never had the football. They had the football eleven
Speaker 2: minutes and they led, and it was one of these
Speaker 2: football games You're like, what's happening here? Philadelphia so much better, Jacksonville,
Speaker 2: Minnesota last weekend. Minnesota was so much better San Francisco
Speaker 2: and Tampa last week and go to the box score
Speaker 2: in that game. So what you're finding is a lot
Speaker 2: of these superior football teams. They're injured, they're beat up,
Speaker 2: they're playing some backups, they're tired. You know, a lot
Speaker 2: of the better football teams in the NFL, they have
Speaker 2: older players, players just out of their prime. Week ten,
Speaker 2: week eleven, week twelve. Listen. I like Jayden Daniels and
Speaker 2: let's talk about this, but he's hit a bit of
Speaker 2: a rookie wall And last year C. J. Stroud had
Speaker 2: a three game stretch and we all like him where
Speaker 2: he completed fifty seven percent of his throws. So Jaden
Speaker 2: Daniels comes in, has a little Lamar Jackson field. Nobody
Speaker 2: has any film, nobody has in the NFL film. I
Speaker 2: mean you're just kind of okay. You go back and
Speaker 2: look at the LSU film. I mean you don't you
Speaker 2: don't know really what you get. And then Cliff Kingsbury
Speaker 2: with Jayden Daniels brand new. So you get four five
Speaker 2: weeks and you're like, oh, then you know, then they
Speaker 2: lose to a Baltimore and I played Pittsburgh a couple
Speaker 2: of weeks ago and they lose to a Pittsburgh. And
Speaker 2: now they lose to a Philadelphia. So some teams Washington
Speaker 2: I had as a wildcard team coming into the season.
Speaker 2: Some teams it takes a while to figure them out
Speaker 2: and I think more than any team in the NFL,
Speaker 2: that's Washington. They come in with a fastball, nobody's seen it.
Speaker 2: Kingsbury's got a new offense and a new quarterback, and
Speaker 2: everybody's kind of just you just you need more film
Speaker 2: and then all of a sudden you kind of figure
Speaker 2: out what they are, what they're not. You see their
Speaker 2: offensive line, you know, into the season, Going into the season,
Speaker 2: we all said about the Commanders. Don't know if I
Speaker 2: like the offensive line. You know, they kind of fool
Speaker 2: people early, some smoking mirrors. I mean, they're just picking
Speaker 2: up seven yards a chunk, but they can't sustain it
Speaker 2: because they really don't have good enough.
Speaker 1: You know.
Speaker 2: I like their running backs, but I mean Terry McLaurin
Speaker 2: in the first half didn't even see it target. You know,
Speaker 2: so people take Terry McLaurin out and it's a pretty
Speaker 2: weak wide receiving crew and it's a pretty average offensive line.
Speaker 2: And now everybody's got all the tape, and so I
Speaker 2: think he's going to be I think I think Jayden
Speaker 2: Daniels has been a home run or you know, Rookie
Speaker 2: of the Year all that stuff. But this is the reality.
Speaker 2: C J. Stroud, you know, hit a wall and had
Speaker 2: some games where you know, the game speeds up. The
Speaker 2: other thing is what happens is like a young quarterback
Speaker 2: maybe has a favorite receiver, you know, maybe relies you know,
Speaker 2: more on a running back, and then people start getting
Speaker 2: dinged up in week nine and ten and eleven, and
Speaker 2: now you know Jaden Daniels doesn't have all the components
Speaker 2: he needs, and so you know, then Cliff Kingsbury has
Speaker 2: certain things. He's not gonna run, certain plays, certain sets,
Speaker 2: so you know on insert day, you know, and this
Speaker 2: is a short week anyway, you know, you're just you're
Speaker 2: limited on what you have. And I think that's what
Speaker 2: you're seeing. I think you're seeing a young quarterback and
Speaker 2: it just steps. Everything for these young quarterbacks is steps.
Speaker 2: You No, Bowe Nicks started slowly, but he has an
Speaker 2: offensive head coach and one of the great ones in
Speaker 2: Sean Payton. He keeps getting better and better. Whereas the
Speaker 2: element of surprise, what the heck is Jaden Daniels And
Speaker 2: you're guessing and he's so electric and so athletic. He
Speaker 2: was just he was picking up yards with his feet.
Speaker 2: Nothing quite like him. Looks a little like Lamar in
Speaker 2: the NFC, and now we're seeing people have a track.
Speaker 2: Doesn't mean it's like a little bit like Lamar Jackson.
Speaker 2: I mean Lamar's first full year starting MVP, but he
Speaker 2: would have trouble in some division games as teams in
Speaker 2: his division, like Pittsburgh or Cincinnati had seen Lamar Jackson
Speaker 2: multiple times. Remember Lamar's first year. He comes in late
Speaker 2: week eleven, he beats the Chargers, then he has to
Speaker 2: face him again in the playoffs and he loses the Chargers.
Speaker 2: I remember talking to Tom Telesco, the GM of the
Speaker 2: Chargers at the time, and he said, you know you
Speaker 2: first time you face him, I mean, you just don't.
Speaker 2: Because you can watch all the film you want, you
Speaker 2: have no idea how fast he is, how twitchy he is,
Speaker 2: how quick he sees and thinks and reacts. And then
Speaker 2: the second time you face him, Okay, we're going to
Speaker 2: take away this, that's his fastball. We're taking away that
Speaker 2: force him to go to his second and his third receiver.
Speaker 2: And then you he's still tough to beat. But you
Speaker 2: can ask Lamar Jackson. Lamar Jackson has struggled in his career.
Speaker 2: I don't think he's had a great record with against
Speaker 2: the Pittsburgh Steelers Mike Tomlin. They always have a good defense.
Speaker 2: They see him multiple times a year, they know all
Speaker 2: the tricks, and so I think Jayden Daniels will be
Speaker 2: a very effective quarterback for teams that don't face him
Speaker 2: a lot. But for a Philadelphia that's well run, good
Speaker 2: pieces that sees him twice a year, you know he
Speaker 2: may have through the years, he may have trouble with
Speaker 2: the Eagles, but still love him. It's a pretty good
Speaker 2: quarterback class. A few years ago we had the class
Speaker 2: with Jalen Hurts and Tua and Joe Burrow and Justin Herbert.
Speaker 2: This quarterback class, JJ McCarthy looked really, really good in
Speaker 2: the preseason. Preseason, but he looks really good, and Bo
Speaker 2: Nicks looks good, and Jayden Daniels looks good. And I
Speaker 2: do believe Kayleb Williams will eventually get it right or
Speaker 2: closer to what he's going to be. He had a
Speaker 2: good three game stretcher earlier this season. Kayleb Williams was
Speaker 2: seventy four percent completion percentage three games. But again, now
Speaker 2: people are getting taped. Now they see what Caleb can't do.
Speaker 2: Then all of a sudden, you have a wide receiver
Speaker 2: that stinged up, just steps, just a process. Jaden's going
Speaker 2: to be great. I thought Philadelphia and I they just
Speaker 2: looked they were a little tired, little beat up, but
Speaker 2: they came back to be the inferior roster twenty six
Speaker 2: to eighteen. Nick Ceriani, I still cannot get over. I
Speaker 2: don't believe they've scored on the opening drive this year.
Speaker 2: Offensive coach sa Kwon Barkley, Jalen Hurts, AJ Brown, Davonte Smith,
Speaker 2: good old line. That's just odd to me. Just Philadelphia
Speaker 2: is such a unique franchise. And maybe I'm loopy because
Speaker 2: this game put me to sleep, But they're the only
Speaker 2: franchise that makes constant coaching changes. You're never quite in
Speaker 2: love with the coach. And yet I think it's a
Speaker 2: top five organization in the NFL. Everybody else, like Kansas
Speaker 2: City feels so stable, Baltimore feels so stable. Philadelphia is
Speaker 2: a little rocky and turbulent. I mean, how many coordinators
Speaker 2: have they had. I mean they're on their third offensive
Speaker 2: coordinator in three years. They're constantly rotating through coordinators, coaches,
Speaker 2: a few years back, quarterbacks. But yet I don't see
Speaker 2: them like the New York Jets the New York Giants.
Speaker 2: As a reactionary, I tend to think they're proactive, smart owner,
Speaker 2: smart GM. I didn't love them firing Chip Kelly, but
Speaker 2: at the time I felt like Chip Kelly's got a
Speaker 2: winning record. But you know what we found out in
Speaker 2: San Francisco. Chip's more of a college guy than a
Speaker 2: pro guy. So they knew something in the building that
Speaker 2: we didn't. Even though they went ten and six ten
Speaker 2: and six first two years with pretty average quarterback play,
Speaker 2: they knew something. They saw something Carson Wentz. They signed
Speaker 2: him to a big deal, and then they know they
Speaker 2: kind of moved off him, and you're thinking, what are
Speaker 2: you doing here? You just sign them to do a
Speaker 2: big deal. They kind of knew something. You know, they
Speaker 2: know things in the building, they keep it to themselves,
Speaker 2: and they react proactively, very strongly. And so Philadelphia once again,
Speaker 2: I mean, this offense with Jalen Hurts has been one
Speaker 2: of two things, turnover prone and awful or when Nick
Speaker 2: Sirianni moves back and lets his oc run things excellent.
Speaker 2: There's nothing in between. It's either been you know, like
Speaker 2: right now, it's powerful. It's a powerful offense with a
Speaker 2: great old line at Saquon Barkley six and oh are
Speaker 2: the Eagles when Saquon rushes for one hundred or more
Speaker 2: completely change the offense of Philadelphia. Okay, this weekend, there's
Speaker 2: some interesting things tonight Jake Paul, Mike Tyson, Saturday, John
Speaker 2: Jones UFC fight. Good weekend. Good. Anytime you can get
Speaker 2: a fight on a Friday and a Saturday into a
Speaker 2: big football weekend. Excellent. Chad Melman's next. So I went
Speaker 2: today and I said, and I watched Russell. So the
Speaker 2: Steeters are three and oh with Russell Wilson averaging about
Speaker 2: thirty a game. It's the first time in several years
Speaker 2: they have the offense moving. And I went back and
Speaker 2: I took Russell Wilson with Pete Carolyn Seattle, Russell Wilson,
Speaker 2: the one year with Sean Payton, and Russell Wilson with
Speaker 2: Mike Tomlin, the three times he's had competent coaches. And
Speaker 2: you know what he gives you. He moves sixty four
Speaker 2: percent completion percentage, a passer rating over one hundred. He
Speaker 2: doesn't miss any starts. He's not great from the pocket,
Speaker 2: but he throws a really nice deep ball. And when
Speaker 2: I watch what he's done to Pittsburgh he has brought
Speaker 2: it's a little big Ben. He's a totally different player.
Speaker 2: He's brought the deep ball back to the Steelers. So
Speaker 2: now you have veteran just say it out loud, veteran coach,
Speaker 2: great defense, tough at home, solid run game, good deep
Speaker 2: ball offense. That's pretty good football team. That's pretty good team.
Speaker 1: Yeah to me, that that staff that they show that
Speaker 1: they were averaging twenty points with fields and they're averaging
Speaker 1: over thirty points with him. I mean, that's a pretty
Speaker 1: big difference. That's that's a pretty much And what do
Speaker 1: they get a game winning touchdown on the deep ball
Speaker 1: throw to Mike Williams? Yeah, what do what are the
Speaker 1: best wide receivers now adding Mike Williams with pickens and
Speaker 1: their tight end, big guys, throw them up, give them
Speaker 1: fifty to fifty balls, because they're not fifty to fifty
Speaker 1: balls with those guys right there, Seventy five twenty five
Speaker 1: balls with those guys. So I thought, at times a
Speaker 1: day like this where you got to be careful about
Speaker 1: writing your takes down at halftime, like the gap, Jayden
Speaker 1: looked way better their offense was rolling. But Russell, there
Speaker 1: is something to be said. I think he can be
Speaker 1: kind of corny and kind of just stupid, the way
Speaker 1: that he comes off like a politician at times. Yeah, yeah,
Speaker 1: but he is very steady Eddy. You know, he doesn't
Speaker 1: go into the tank when it looks it just pipped
Speaker 1: off early. And the Fields he also can make the
Speaker 1: throw that that lob touch throw that won them the
Speaker 1: game that a handful of bet the average to blow
Speaker 1: average quarterbacks can't make. It was a problem with Trubisky forever.
Speaker 1: You know, Fields is a more talented Trubisky, but cannot
Speaker 1: make that layered kind of lollipop throw. And at this
Speaker 1: point in time, that is Russell's go to throw. And
Speaker 1: even back when he was better, when did his game
Speaker 1: like when he got DK metcalf. So you give him
Speaker 1: these big targets, Sutton like they had some plays at Denver, right,
Speaker 1: throw it up, let them go make a play. That
Speaker 1: was a big win for Pittsburgh Collin because I thought
Speaker 1: I was thoroughly impressed with Washington. I'm like, this is
Speaker 1: gonna be a great win. And then Russell drives him
Speaker 1: right down the field, even as calmness that there is
Speaker 1: something to be said on that game winning drive that
Speaker 1: he led them on. When those guys look at him
Speaker 1: in the huddle like this ain't his first rodeo. Don't
Speaker 1: say what you want about him. He's not near the
Speaker 1: same guy. But like you look at him in the huddle,
Speaker 1: you go, this guy has been in this moment, you know,
Speaker 1: fifty plus times in his career.
Speaker 2: Let's talk a game that wasn't nearly as captivating, but
Speaker 2: it made a statement. New England nineteen Chicago three twenty
Speaker 2: one straight drives for the Bears, without a touchdown, third
Speaker 2: straight game, no offensive identity, Caleb under fifty four percent
Speaker 2: completion rate, third straight game. He's lost one for fourteen
Speaker 2: on third down. Pitiful at Drake May again, seven different targets.
Speaker 2: They didn't ask him to do much. You know, they
Speaker 2: averaged five and a half yards of play with without
Speaker 2: you know, much to work with. But I think the
Speaker 2: story here is, and I've said this, poorly coached teams.
Speaker 2: Brandon Staley last year start the year, Remember that, Brandon,
Speaker 2: I think it was last year. They start, they almost
Speaker 2: beat Miami to start a wild, crazy game, and then
Speaker 2: about week six, you're like, man, they're not well coached
Speaker 2: and then by like week twelve, the players have quit.
Speaker 2: A poorly run business can fool people three or four
Speaker 2: or five weeks. I mean that Tennessee win. I mean
Speaker 2: they were outplayed by the Titans at home in Week one.
Speaker 2: It was a Will Levis mistake or that's an l
Speaker 2: I think what you look at this team now is
Speaker 2: you look at a poorly coached team. There's a lack
Speaker 2: of belief. There's absolutely no identity. Offensively, they averaged two
Speaker 2: point four yards of play. Ryan Poles said last week,
Speaker 2: we're not making coaching changes. This is not Jacksonville. Chicago
Speaker 2: is a loud media. Do you fire Matt Eberflus during
Speaker 2: the season.
Speaker 1: I mean, I think there's a decent chance by the
Speaker 1: time you know, we wake up or before lunch on Monday,
Speaker 1: he's relieved of his duties. You can't go back to
Speaker 1: back games like they have just had when they were
Speaker 1: a play away from looking like is this team about
Speaker 1: to win ten or eleven games? And it now feels
Speaker 1: like if I told you they win one more game
Speaker 1: the rest of the season. We've talked about their schedule.
Speaker 1: They're in shambles. They're coaching staff's in embarrassment right now,
Speaker 1: and it's gonna get absolutely destroyed by every Bears fan,
Speaker 1: and rightfully so. Yeah, but I also think that, like
Speaker 1: Ryan Poles, Bear's responsibility. He drafted Roma Doonza, who we
Speaker 1: all like. Their offensive line is pitiful, and there were
Speaker 1: countless offensive linemen on the board at pick nine that
Speaker 1: would have who's Jim Harbaugh take? He takes an offensive
Speaker 1: lineman where it's like, take a receiver, He's like, no,
Speaker 1: who would Andy Reid have taken in that spot? He
Speaker 1: would have taken a guard or a tackle because you
Speaker 1: have to protect that guy. And they took a wide
Speaker 1: receiver when they already got multiple wide receivers. And let's
Speaker 1: face it, they got a problem on their hands because
Speaker 1: Dj Moore, who for like a five straight year stretch.
Speaker 1: Everyone in the NFL is like, listen, I don't know
Speaker 1: this guy. Doesn't matter what quarterback he's playing with. This
Speaker 1: guy's a stud. People liked him, who's high character. He
Speaker 1: does not like Caleb like they have an issue. They
Speaker 1: have an issue, and they just extended him. Now obviously
Speaker 1: it's not like if you have to pick one or
Speaker 1: the other. They have no choice. They're all in on
Speaker 1: Caleb Williams. But that is a problem for them. And
Speaker 1: I saw this with the forty nine ers, And I'm
Speaker 1: not comparing Caleb to Trey Lance. He's obviously a much
Speaker 1: better player, but they never believed in Trey Lance, not
Speaker 1: the coaching staff, not the front office, the players why
Speaker 1: they wanted Jimmy, why they had no problem going to
Speaker 1: Purty because they see every day in practice. I think
Speaker 1: we were talking before you jumped on about like I
Speaker 1: think Nick Wright had a take about like just go
Speaker 1: with Trey Lance right now because maybe you get something
Speaker 1: and best case, he just sucks and you lose. You
Speaker 1: know why you can't do that because Micah Parsons and
Speaker 1: Ceedee Lamb would be like, what the fuck are we doing?
Speaker 2: Right?
Speaker 1: Because they see practice, and I think you have this
Speaker 1: Caleb Williams situation. Everyone's going to point to Shane Waldron,
Speaker 1: who actually I always kind of liked, but clearly this
Speaker 1: is not going well for him, and eber flus Over
Speaker 1: said is gonna get fired. But there are plays to
Speaker 1: be made for Caleb and he doesn't look remotely close.
Speaker 1: Like even if you are a Caleb supporter, which I
Speaker 1: with you, like most people, I would have drafted them
Speaker 1: number one overall, but like the draft happened. Now we're
Speaker 1: ten games in, there are plays. It's not all his fault.
Speaker 1: But I think we also have to acknowledge like Drake
Speaker 1: may plays in an organization that's in turmoil. His the
Speaker 1: former head coach, who's one of the most legendary sports
Speaker 1: figures of all times, ripping drowd mail. Like three weeks ago,
Speaker 1: everyone's ripping the owner. The coaching staff's more than questionable.
Speaker 1: There's not that much talent. You watch Drake may Or,
Speaker 1: like God, he was the best quarterback by a wide
Speaker 1: margin on the field, no question. And the other thing
Speaker 1: Colin is like, let's use Jared Goff as an example.
Speaker 1: Remember that rookie season. It felt like is this guy,
Speaker 1: this guy even an NFL player? But the one thing
Speaker 1: you knew Jared Goff could do in college was like
Speaker 1: he was a pocket quarterback. So he's never gonna have
Speaker 1: to run. He's a pocket. If you could protect him,
Speaker 1: he could play in the pocket. There is just a
Speaker 1: question with Caleb, like can he play within the pocket?
Speaker 1: That was a question coming out, like it's not something
Speaker 1: he's comfortable doing. You don't just get to freelance all
Speaker 1: the time in the NFL. So it's like one, two, three,
Speaker 1: get rid of the ball now our his receivers not
Speaker 1: getting open all the time. Obviously some plays, But I
Speaker 1: do think there's a legit question of like what offense
Speaker 1: to make this guy successful? Like I watched Drake Man,
Speaker 1: It's like, I think that guy could fit in a
Speaker 1: lot of offenses. Yeah, you know, I thought Jayden was,
Speaker 1: like I think he's gonna have to play in like
Speaker 1: mor of al Lamar style. I'm watching, like, well what
Speaker 1: Lamar is now? What Lamar was when he was really young,
Speaker 1: not the version now. And you watch Jayden right now,
Speaker 1: it's like this guy's awesome in the pocket. So I
Speaker 1: just think there's question marks on Caleb that you you
Speaker 1: look at this job like this is why I like
Speaker 1: Mike Vrabel, Like I'm not looking for Caleb to throw
Speaker 1: forty touchdowns anymore. Maybe that's not his game. Let's just
Speaker 1: kind of go what Pete Carroll did in thirteen and fourteen, like, Hey,
Speaker 1: we're gonna run the ball, We're gonna have a tough defense,
Speaker 1: you're gonna play within my system. That's what We're taking
Speaker 1: the cooking utensils away from your hands.
Speaker 2: That's what Philadelphia has done with Jalen Hurts. Jalen Hurts
Speaker 2: today is throwing twenty four times and it's very effective.
Speaker 2: He throws a good deep ball. They're not letting Jalen Hurts.
Speaker 2: And by the way, outside of a Mahomes or a
Speaker 2: Josh Allen, I don't want my guys throwing forty two times.
Speaker 2: I don't want my offensive lineman backing up forty two
Speaker 2: I want him going forward forty two times. It's interesting because.
Speaker 1: Jalen's a little less hirky jerky though Caleb. I think
Speaker 1: he's a little shorter area. I think Jalen's a better runner,
Speaker 1: but a little more quick twitch. And to me, his
Speaker 1: hirky jerkiness throws everything off. And part of it's young.
Speaker 1: He's kind of seeing ghosts. But it's just I don't
Speaker 1: know if we've seen something this like this go back
Speaker 1: to like Sam Darnold Jets like this is a train wreck.
Speaker 2: Colin offensively, I want to talk about another game. Let's
Speaker 2: go back to an interesting game. Kansas City beats Denver
Speaker 2: sixteen to fourteen, and I just I wrote what Kansas
Speaker 2: City's become is a great moments team two for two
Speaker 2: on fourth down, block to kick, great on third down,
Speaker 2: only three penalties. They're still trying to figure out what
Speaker 2: the hell they are a little bit offensively like they
Speaker 2: don't you know they well.
Speaker 1: They're this Colin is just ugly. Just keep us in
Speaker 1: the game and we'll just try to win it with
Speaker 1: five minutes left.
Speaker 2: But when you have the best coach, the best quarterback,
Speaker 2: arguably the best defense, the best third down offense, that's enough.
Speaker 2: I was thinking about this about two weeks ago. About
Speaker 2: every six years. I went back and looked at it was,
Speaker 2: but every six to seven years a great team wins
Speaker 2: the Super Bowl. But mostly it's a really good team
Speaker 2: with no huge hole that coaches can pick on you.
Speaker 2: In a two week layoff for the Super Bowl. When
Speaker 2: Mahomes didn't have both tackles, he gets routed. If he'd
Speaker 2: had one, it would have been a game. Kansas City
Speaker 2: is not terrible at anything. They're beat up. They're trying
Speaker 2: to figure out their receiving corps. But because Mahomes is
Speaker 2: so good and Andy Reid is so clever, it's functional.
Speaker 2: It makes plays when you have to. I thought this
Speaker 2: was the game. This was the game I did not
Speaker 2: pick in Blazing five it was my last pick. I
Speaker 2: thought Denver had a chance to win today. Same but
Speaker 2: the takeaway I had beyond Kansas City doing that Bonix.
Speaker 2: That final drive thirteen plays a little bit like Rock Purty.
Speaker 2: You're like, I mean, he had eight different receivers today,
Speaker 2: twenty two to thirty, two hundred and forty five yards,
Speaker 2: a couple of touchdowns, great final drive. I think all
Speaker 2: those college starts, like, I think he may have a
Speaker 2: lower ceiling, but I think Denver is eight five drafted
Speaker 2: players away and maybe a free agent signing from being
Speaker 2: a pain in the ass to people. I think I
Speaker 2: think Denver's pretty interesting.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I thought this game was way more about Denver
Speaker 1: than Kansas City. I mean, Kansas City just does this
Speaker 1: every week. They're going to go fift, you know, fifteen
Speaker 1: and two or sixteen and one, and everyone's going to go,
Speaker 1: how the hell they do it? Well, they do it because,
Speaker 1: like you said, it's the organizational competitive character that they're
Speaker 1: know how their experience. I mean, they're missing the best
Speaker 1: receiver who towards ACL they're starting running back like Kareem
Speaker 1: Hunt's been an awesome story. There's a big drop off
Speaker 1: between Jaco and him, huge so and you get him
Speaker 1: back hopefully in December. It's a broken leg, so you
Speaker 1: know that that'll be a big boost for them because
Speaker 1: they're gonna win like this right twenty one to seventeen twenty.
Speaker 1: But to me, Denver went in there as they should
Speaker 1: have short week, Kansas City, a little gas, little and
Speaker 1: they came in ready to win and Bo Nick hit
Speaker 1: sudden on the on the beautiful touchdown pass. You're like,
Speaker 1: there's gonna be the game. I thought, like, you know,
Speaker 1: as finally the Chiefs just lose twenty eight to fifteen
Speaker 1: or something, and they just find a way because defensively
Speaker 1: they're good. Obviously the home crowd is pretty special. But
Speaker 1: I think Denver this was probably one of their more
Speaker 1: impressive weeks of the year, even counting their wins, just
Speaker 1: because like, well, have to see how it breaks out
Speaker 1: like that. That's seven seed when you look like obviously
Speaker 1: the Jets are done. Culture in major trouble. You know,
Speaker 1: when you look at the AFC Playoff, the Bengals are screwed.
Speaker 1: You basically have the Steelers and Ravens. You know, one
Speaker 1: team's gonna win Division. One team's gonna be.
Speaker 2: In Steelers, Chiefs Chargers, Yeah, Steelers.
Speaker 1: I think Denver could get the seven seed.
Speaker 2: Colin so do I. I think the top is very
Speaker 2: good Buffalo, Baltimore, Kansas City, and then I think the
Speaker 2: wild card feels like.
Speaker 1: Do you throw Pittsburgh in there too? Though I do.
Speaker 2: I think let's say Pittsburgh becomes.
Speaker 1: Find out when they play each other this week.
Speaker 2: Yeah, and Baltimore at their best is better than Pittsburgh
Speaker 2: at their best.
Speaker 1: Agreed.
Speaker 2: So I think this the wild card teams and they
Speaker 2: don't feel quite as good. Chargers not a ton of
Speaker 2: juice offensively, but a good team. Denver rookie quarterback and Pittsburgh.
Speaker 2: You have some limitations I think on you know, I
Speaker 2: think Russell from the pocket, there's limitations if he was
Speaker 2: trailing in a game and he put big heat on him.
Speaker 2: But I will say with Denver, I mean Mahomes last
Speaker 2: two games, no picks, first seven games, nine picks. So
Speaker 2: what Kansas City has basically done. They've gotten those ugly
Speaker 2: remember the start of the year where like Jesus Malmes
Speaker 2: has like one or two just horrible pick. They've gotten
Speaker 2: out of that space. The win for Kansas City is
Speaker 2: harder than you think because of the short week. But
Speaker 2: I think to your point, I think you looked at
Speaker 2: Sean Payton and bow Knicks, and I think we could
Speaker 2: both say he found his Drew Brees. He found his guy.
Speaker 2: I don't know if he's as good as him, but
Speaker 2: he found his guy.
Speaker 1: Yeah. Well, I mean he's he's definitely made strides. Because
Speaker 1: it was early. I think I didn't put as much
Speaker 1: stock into some of the early games in the fourth
Speaker 1: quarter when he played well, because it's like, I don't
Speaker 1: the context of that the defense gave up. But I
Speaker 1: do think the last couple of weeks you feel a
Speaker 1: lot better about it. And let's face it, like there
Speaker 1: are some rookie quarterbacks playing and obviously Jade and Daniels,
Speaker 1: it couldn't have gotten much better. It's one of the
Speaker 1: great Like I mean, we saw one of the greatest
Speaker 1: rookie seasons of all time last year with CJ. Stroud.
Speaker 1: I would put Jaden and Daniels right there, toe to
Speaker 1: toe of like, jeez, it can't be this good, can it.
Speaker 1: And then you have like Drake May who's on a
Speaker 1: team that's so but you're watching me.
Speaker 2: Go, well there's something there.
Speaker 1: Oh yeah, I would take that guy and then you
Speaker 1: watch bo who doesn't have Drake's physical characteristics, who's not
Speaker 1: as talented. Why one guy goes three to the other
Speaker 1: guy most people thought was overdrafted. But you go with
Speaker 1: this coach with this infrastructure, their defense. I mean that's
Speaker 1: the one thing. Like if Sean Payton's has a defense
Speaker 1: as he did in New Orleans with Drew Brees, they
Speaker 1: were elite, right, So if you just give a defense,
Speaker 1: like he'll figure out the offense. Most teams are not
Speaker 1: Kansas City to me, I think they get to nine
Speaker 1: wins and they would be the seventh seed. Now the
Speaker 1: difference though, is you know, depending on who they play. Right,
Speaker 1: if you're the seventh seed, you're playing the two seeds,
Speaker 1: so you're playing Baltimore or Buffalo. Like, no one's betting
Speaker 1: on Denver. I would say, no one's gonna want to
Speaker 1: see the Chargers as the six seeds. Like if you're
Speaker 1: Baltimore Pittsburgh, that will be a team that like, wait,
Speaker 1: they're a five point underdog, like who I think Hardball
Speaker 1: would be a team that people would believe in. Or Denver,
Speaker 1: there's nothing wrong with it. One and done team in
Speaker 1: the playoffs, probably like the Commanders and you tip your
Speaker 1: hat to you feel good.
Speaker 2: Yeah, if you look at their schedule, John Denver now
Speaker 2: hosts the Falcons Dome team cold Weather, then they get
Speaker 2: they face the Raiders, then they face the Browns at home,
Speaker 2: then they get the Colts at home, and then they
Speaker 2: go to the Chargers. I think they match up. It's
Speaker 2: very close. So to your point, here is the you know,
Speaker 2: preseason we're like, oh, you know, you look at some
Speaker 2: of these teams. Then the Broncos end with the Bengals,
Speaker 2: and by the way, they host the Chiefs in the
Speaker 2: last week eighteen, Kansas City could be resting guys. At
Speaker 2: that point, they could be.
Speaker 1: Just and I'm looking at it right now. Technically at
Speaker 1: five and five they are in the seventh spot, trailed
Speaker 1: by Indianapolis, who, let's face it, I don't blame them.
Speaker 1: I think they did the right thing. But the Flacco
Speaker 1: Anthony Richards things all out of whack. Now. Flacco looks
Speaker 1: terrible and terrible, and the Bengals, who have this quarterback
Speaker 1: who's can't play any better, and Jamar Chase, who looks
Speaker 1: like Jerry Rice in his prime, cannot win games. So
Speaker 1: you know, you don't feel very and just because of
Speaker 1: the division they're in. It's just a lot harder when
Speaker 1: you got to play Pittsburgh Baltimore right then they don't
Speaker 1: get the Raiders. Even Cleveland now throwing in Jamis is
Speaker 1: a real team with real players. I would much rather
Speaker 1: play the Raiders in the Browns. So I like that.
Speaker 1: That was a pretty devastating loss for the Bengals the
Speaker 1: other night, and that could be the difference why Denver
Speaker 1: gets the seventh seed in the Bengals end up eight
Speaker 1: to nine. I mean, it could just be the different
Speaker 1: one teams nine and eight, the other team's eight nine.
Speaker 1: That's it's that big of a difference.
Speaker 2: Time for another edition of Sharp or Square. He's a
Speaker 2: host of the Action Network. All of our odds are
Speaker 2: always provided by DraftKings Sportsbook. All right, Chad Melman, there
Speaker 2: are certain games I just want to watch and not bet.
Speaker 2: But I would take the Steelers plus points hosting the Ravens.
Speaker 2: The number is three and a half. It's one of
Speaker 2: the bets of the weekend. At three, I still think
Speaker 2: I would take it. I think George Pickens and Mike
Speaker 2: Williams attack the Ravens. Baltimore is one of those teams,
Speaker 2: and this is rare with a great team, they can
Speaker 2: outplay you and then get beat by The Raiders can
Speaker 2: get beat by inferior teams. They're so bad on the
Speaker 2: back end. And I think Pittsburgh's a real story here.
Speaker 2: I think it's the Seahawks light Russell's not what's what
Speaker 2: he was was. But in this rivalry, even a field goal,
Speaker 2: I'm taking the point Sharper square.
Speaker 4: Well, it's totally sharp, and you've nailed it from a
Speaker 4: couple different directions. Won the matchup the wise Guy seed
Speaker 4: exactly the way you do. We've been watching it all
Speaker 4: year with the Ravens where they're letting teams in the
Speaker 4: back door, right. We saw it with the Commanders, they
Speaker 4: were down a significant amount, they came back, they came
Speaker 4: back and they were able to cover that game. We
Speaker 4: saw it with the Bengals who were up so much
Speaker 4: because they were able to attack the back end of
Speaker 4: the Ravens defense. And don't forget no Kyle Humphrey in
Speaker 4: this game, Kyle Humphrey is one of their if not
Speaker 4: their best defender. And now that secondary is going to
Speaker 4: be even worse. The overarching theme here and this is
Speaker 4: the reason why professionals are on it. Don't forget this
Speaker 4: game opened at three and a half. It is settled
Speaker 4: at three. The wise guys are still on it. But
Speaker 4: look in the regular season, in this game, in this
Speaker 4: matchup the past twenty years, when the line is three
Speaker 4: or more, the underdog twenty two, four and three, underdog
Speaker 4: fifteen to two and one since two thousand and fifteen,
Speaker 4: in the regular season, when Mike Tomlin fases John Harbaugh,
Speaker 4: the underdog in this matchup twenty three, six and three,
Speaker 4: and then you go into Mike Tomlin, the most profitable
Speaker 4: coach as an underdog in the past twenty years in
Speaker 4: the NFL. And by the way, John Harbaugh when he's
Speaker 4: a favorite is not nearly as good as when he's
Speaker 4: a dog in this matchup. So there is a matchup reason,
Speaker 4: and there is also historical reasons to consider the Steelers
Speaker 4: at plus three.
Speaker 2: You're sharp, you know, I like the number four and five.
Speaker 2: So Greg Cosell said something on my show today that
Speaker 2: had influence over me. This was going to be a
Speaker 2: stay away game. But the Packers offensive coach off of
Speaker 2: buy at Chicago, and what Greg Cosell said, it's not
Speaker 2: a Shane Waldron issue. Much like Justin Fields or Zach Wilson,
Speaker 2: Caleb Williams is not seeing coverage. He's not seeing it.
Speaker 2: He is not able to see something. Spot it, get
Speaker 2: the ball out quickly. Green Bay I think has its
Speaker 2: most aggressive defense in years. I love the Boston College coach.
Speaker 2: I think he's been a really nice fit for them.
Speaker 2: Under the radar, low Key really knows his side of
Speaker 2: the ball. It's five. I would take Green Bay. I
Speaker 2: know it's a division rivalry game, but good organization. Coach
Speaker 2: Jordan loves healthier sharper square.
Speaker 4: So the wise guys have been on the bearers in
Speaker 4: this game. It's moved from six to five and a
Speaker 4: half to now five in some places. I agree with
Speaker 4: you for what it's worth for me, this is a
Speaker 4: pass or it's the Packers. I think there's so much
Speaker 4: dysfunction with the Bears, and the reason why the wise
Speaker 4: guys are taking them right now is because they believe
Speaker 4: this is bottomed out right. It's gotten as bad as
Speaker 4: it can get in the locker room, it can't get
Speaker 4: any worse. Whether you believe the players were responsible for
Speaker 4: getting Shane Waldron fired, DJ Moore said that didn't happen
Speaker 4: whether you believe that the system can now get a
Speaker 4: little bit less complex and easier for Kayleb Williams, whether
Speaker 4: you believe that they're getting two offensive linemen back, which
Speaker 4: they are and will make him feel more comfortable in
Speaker 4: the pocket. This team has been full of chaos, and
Speaker 4: so the wise guys are betting literally that it cannot
Speaker 4: get any worse in a division game against their rival
Speaker 4: at home. The flip side is entirely about what the
Speaker 4: Packers can do. They have been very opportunistic as a
Speaker 4: defense this year. A lot of an they cannot rush
Speaker 4: the passer, but what they can do offensively, and this
Speaker 4: is where Matt Lafleur has been a genius figure out
Speaker 4: how to best take advantage of what the Bears are
Speaker 4: bad at on defense. The Bears are not a very
Speaker 4: good rushing defense. We've seen what Matt Lafleor does with
Speaker 4: someone like Josh Jacobs when he knows he doesn't have
Speaker 4: Jordan Love, he just figures out creative ways to get
Speaker 4: the running game in motion. He will likely do that
Speaker 4: against the Bears.
Speaker 1: Also.
Speaker 4: Matt Lafleur seven and three when favored by four points
Speaker 4: or more over the past two decades, Road favorites off
Speaker 4: of a buy covered a sixty percent clip, road favorites
Speaker 4: of five and a half or more cover at a
Speaker 4: seventy percent clip. So there's lots of reasons to like
Speaker 4: the Packers here. The wise guys, I think the right
Speaker 4: side is the Bears.
Speaker 2: So Journey had a song years ago and one of
Speaker 2: the lyrics is I can't stop loving you, and I feel,
Speaker 2: I feel that's like odds makers on the Jets. This
Speaker 2: is a bad test. How in God's name were they?
Speaker 2: They favored it the Arizona It was never competitive, Colts
Speaker 2: getting over a field goal. So Anthony Richardson, I'm tired,
Speaker 2: I'm going to go to the sidelines. Not a smart move.
Speaker 2: It's not punishable by a month on the bench. He
Speaker 2: learned his lesson when he's healthy. He's kind of a
Speaker 2: fascinating player that's hard to defend because you have nobody
Speaker 2: in practice that can duplicate. He's a defensive end that
Speaker 2: plays quarterback. He's a huge, tackle breaking tornado of activity.
Speaker 2: That's not a great quarterback. But I'm taking the points
Speaker 2: here all day. Sharper Square.
Speaker 4: It's a fifty to fifty game right now, and I
Speaker 4: agree with you. You think about Journey. I think that
Speaker 4: same way when I think about offensive lines who are
Speaker 4: really really physical, and the Colts offensive line when it
Speaker 4: comes to run blocking is super physical, best in the NFL,
Speaker 4: and we saw this last week. I loved the Colts
Speaker 4: last week against the Bills at home. And if not
Speaker 4: from Joe Flacco and three turnovers and if not for
Speaker 4: getting sacked when it's fourth and inches, I know, if
Speaker 4: not for, if not for, if not for, then all
Speaker 4: of a sudden, I'm playing in the NFL. But the
Speaker 4: point is they ran the ball on the Bills. They
Speaker 4: had more than one hundred and twenty yards rushing and
Speaker 4: Jonathan Taylor went from more than one hundred and average
Speaker 4: five and a half yards per carry, so they were
Speaker 4: able to do exactly what they wanted to do against
Speaker 4: the Bills. The Jets defense from a rushing perspective is
Speaker 4: worse than the Bills rush defense, and the team overall
Speaker 4: is much worse than the Bills are. And now you're
Speaker 4: getting Anthony Richardson back to your point, this is a
Speaker 4: better opportunity for Shane Steiken to let everybody run with
Speaker 4: the ball and dominate the Jets, who if you watched
Speaker 4: last week, against the Cardinals. They were afraid to tackle anybody.
Speaker 4: This is not a physical defense, and they have gotten
Speaker 4: so much worse since Robert Silo was fired. So the
Speaker 4: line moved down from four to three and a half,
Speaker 4: from actually from four and a half to four to
Speaker 4: three and a half, indicating that the wise guys were
Speaker 4: on the Colts. It's come back a little bit on
Speaker 4: the on the Jets, and so now it's settled at
Speaker 4: for the majority of wise guys are with you and
Speaker 4: they will be on the Colts.
Speaker 2: Well. A Rams minus four and a half that key
Speaker 2: number of game at New England, so very rarely is
Speaker 2: have I ever seen a Sean McVay team out coached.
Speaker 2: It felt like they were out schemed early. It was
Speaker 2: like an I thought it was an embarrassing game for
Speaker 2: Sean McVay and it was hard to digest because the Dolphins,
Speaker 2: a poor pass rushing team without blitzing, just rushing four
Speaker 2: were getting relentless pressure. And my take is good coaches
Speaker 2: and good quarterbacks have stinkers. The Rams are getting healthy.
Speaker 2: That was not the Rams. They were playing very good.
Speaker 2: It's a short week. I think New England now are
Speaker 2: all buyding to Drake May. This Rams defense is really good. Now,
Speaker 2: Drake May is not toua, He's not. They don't have
Speaker 2: those weapons. They're not going to listen to. Rams brought
Speaker 2: some and they got burned on third down because two
Speaker 2: is a really good NFL quarterback. I'd swallowed the four
Speaker 2: and a half here take the Ram Sharper square.
Speaker 3: So it's been square.
Speaker 4: And I got to tell you, we've talked about executive
Speaker 4: decisions before. I don't know why the wise guys are
Speaker 4: on the Patriots here. It doesn't make any sense to
Speaker 4: me at all. This is a bilo on the better team,
Speaker 4: sell high on the worst team situation. Why would you
Speaker 4: be betting the Patriots who are so high on life
Speaker 4: after beating up on the Bears on the road a
Speaker 4: franchise tying record nine sacks against Caleb Williams. And look,
Speaker 4: I watched that game, obviously, the Rams and the Dolphins too.
Speaker 4: I looked at it a little differently. The Rams have
Speaker 4: five field goals. The Rams red zone this season has
Speaker 4: been atrocious, and to me, that was sort of the
Speaker 4: bottoming out right. Every time they got close, it was
Speaker 4: a sack, it was a botch snap, it was a fumble,
Speaker 4: it was a mistake. And then there were a couple
Speaker 4: times defensively. You know, they had that third and twenty
Speaker 4: five that they gave up, and they gave up a
Speaker 4: penalty on that one too. They had another field goal,
Speaker 4: they made the field goal five yard illegal motion penalty,
Speaker 4: they moved back, and then all of a sudden they
Speaker 4: missed the field goal. So to me, it was just
Speaker 4: it was a game full of bad breaks, bad mistakes.
Speaker 4: It's a better team. You're getting the much better team
Speaker 4: in a bounce back spot with a relatively low number.
Speaker 4: So I like that. By the way, teams who have
Speaker 4: been favorites at home and lost and then our favorites
Speaker 4: the following week on the road about sixty percent the
Speaker 4: past twenty years against the spread. And by the way,
Speaker 4: Sean McVeigh short rest fourteen and six against the spread,
Speaker 4: ten and one in his last eleven games with Matthew
Speaker 4: Stafford six and one on short rest, Like, I don't
Speaker 4: understand the move here. It doesn't make any sense to me.
Speaker 4: So yeah, let's go with the Rams.
Speaker 2: Kansas plus two and a half at Buffalo. I think
Speaker 2: Buffalo is the most equipped they've ever been to beat
Speaker 2: Kansas City. But now Coleman's not playing, and Amari Cooper's
Speaker 2: banned up and Kincaid might not play. You're not beating
Speaker 2: him at half strength because they're going to put you
Speaker 2: an uncomfortable third and longs and it's a and they're
Speaker 2: getting by the way, they're getting Pachecko back, so that
Speaker 2: that can be a difference maker for their run game,
Speaker 2: which has been pretty pedestrian. Kareem Hunt's not a bad
Speaker 2: receiver out of the backfield, but he doesn't have any
Speaker 2: jet fuel anymore. This feels like an obvious one Chiefs
Speaker 2: plus the points, even though it's not three sharper square.
Speaker 1: Yeah.
Speaker 4: So what's interesting about this is on Sunday night, this
Speaker 4: line opened at Chiefs plus one and it started skyrocketing higher.
Speaker 4: And Sunday nights Monday mornings, that's when the wise guys
Speaker 4: are betting. They're taking advantage of some early lines. So
Speaker 4: if there are line moves in that first twenty four
Speaker 4: hour window, that's professional money. And this line moved from
Speaker 4: Kansas City plus one, Kansas City plus one and a half,
Speaker 4: Kansas City plus two, Kansas City plus two and a half,
Speaker 4: and it made no sense. This is a little bit
Speaker 4: like the Steelers where you know what the precedent is.
Speaker 4: You know Mike Tomlin does this x percent amount of time.
Speaker 4: That is what we call in the betting business a
Speaker 4: plus EV plus expected value return on your investment.
Speaker 2: Right, so you just bet it.
Speaker 4: Like he might not love it, You might get burned
Speaker 4: on it four times out of ten, but six times
Speaker 4: out of ten you're.
Speaker 2: Going to win.
Speaker 4: The percentages with Patrick Mahomes as an underdog or a
Speaker 4: favorite of less than three are so much higher than
Speaker 4: anything else you could possibly imagine. And sure, maybe he's
Speaker 4: getting by with a little bit voodoo this year. Maybe
Speaker 4: he's been incredibly lucky. Maybe there are games they should
Speaker 4: have lost to the forty nine ers, maybe they should
Speaker 4: have lost to the Broncos, like there have been spots.
Speaker 4: But look twelve one and one against the spread his
Speaker 4: Mahomes as an underdog. Okay, his only against the spread
Speaker 4: loss was against the Bills two years ago, two and
Speaker 4: a half point underdogs. They lost by four, twenty five
Speaker 4: and ten straight up twenty six, eight and one in
Speaker 4: his career against the spread as a favorite of three
Speaker 4: or fewer points or as an underdog, like, I'm with you,
Speaker 4: you just don't bet against Patrick Mahomes in the spot
Speaker 4: if people didn't learn their lesson in the Super Bowl
Speaker 4: where he was a two and a half point underdog.
Speaker 4: If Patrick Mahomes is close, ask yourself this, do you
Speaker 4: want to be betting against him at the end of
Speaker 4: the game? Are you going to feel comfortable with that? No,
Speaker 4: nobody is. And to your point, Kean Coleman out, Amari
Speaker 4: Cooper out, Kinkaid if he does play is playing with
Speaker 4: the cast. They're a little banged up on the right
Speaker 4: side of their offensive line, like there are reasons to
Speaker 4: be afraid to bet on the Bills beyond Patrick Mahomes.
Speaker 4: So yes, this line has come down, by the way
Speaker 4: to answer the original question, So it's starting to become
Speaker 4: sharp to bet on the Chiefs.
Speaker 2: Are you struggling to find the right candidates? Well, good news,
Speaker 2: there's a place to go to get help. It's called
Speaker 2: zip recruiter. Doesn't work for you fast and easy right
Speaker 2: now this second. You can try it for free. All
Speaker 2: you do is go to ZipRecruiter dot com slash colin.
Speaker 2: It's the hiring site that employers trust the most, according
Speaker 2: to G two. So how quickly does zip recruiter work? Instantly?
Speaker 2: They have a powerful matching technology helps you find the
Speaker 2: top talent fast saves your time and money. Four out
Speaker 2: of five employers who post on zip recruiter listen to this.
Speaker 2: Four to five get a quality candidate within the first day.
Speaker 2: So see for yourself. All you have to do do
Speaker 2: it for free. ZipRecruiter dot com slash colin right now. Free,
Speaker 2: I mean free. That's the same price as a perfect sunset.
Speaker 2: Try it free exclusive web address. ZipRecruiter dot com slash
Speaker 2: Colin c l I n zip recruiter. The smartest way
Speaker 2: to hire really is all right? The final one of
Speaker 2: my picks. So the Chargers are only minus one and
Speaker 2: a half and I looked at that number and thought,
Speaker 2: why that's a funky number. No, it's not the offense.
Speaker 2: I'm going to take the Bengals plus the points. Here
Speaker 2: here's why. So they played on Thursday. Now they get it.
Speaker 2: Not only do they get extra rest, they don't play
Speaker 2: till Monday. So it's a strange. It's really a lot
Speaker 2: of extra rest. As I've told you, if you have
Speaker 2: a great quarterback and an offensive coach, I think that
Speaker 2: time matters. The Jets have an old quarterback and an
Speaker 2: interim coach that extra rest against Arizona didn't matter. But
Speaker 2: I think Zach Taylor and Joe Burrow and they're already
Speaker 2: humming and the Chargers. Everybody loves the Chargers. They don't
Speaker 2: have a ton of downfield weapons. They have very few
Speaker 2: plus twenty yard plays, so there's a way they have
Speaker 2: to play to win long drives. Long drives are hard,
Speaker 2: naltyes fumbles, it's hard to create nine to ten and
Speaker 2: eleven play drives. Bengals score quickly, they get freebies. I'm
Speaker 2: gonna take the points to the Bengals the rest sharper square.
Speaker 4: Yeah, it's sharp this numbers move. It opened at two
Speaker 4: and a half last Sunday to move down to about
Speaker 4: got down to one actually, and then bounced up a
Speaker 4: little bit with some Charger money at one and a half.
Speaker 4: But it's definitely the sharp side. I I I agree
Speaker 4: with you, like you want to be on the Bengal
Speaker 4: side here for the same reason you don't want to
Speaker 4: bet against Patrick Mahomes. Do you want to be betting
Speaker 4: against Joe Burrow who lights out this year, who has
Speaker 4: an underdog is second only to Patrick Mahomes, and how
Speaker 4: well he performs amongst this current class of quarterbacks. You don't.
Speaker 4: The reason why there would be any sentiment in favor
Speaker 4: of the Chargers right now is because this has been
Speaker 4: a very strange gambling year. You know, to look Macro
Speaker 4: here you as a business man, as someone who has
Speaker 4: succeeded far beyond just being a media personality. The past
Speaker 4: two weeks has been earning season for public traded companies, right,
Speaker 4: That includes sports betting operators. The two major sports betting
Speaker 4: operators both had to reduce their revenue expectations for the
Speaker 4: year because of what they have defined as customer friendly outcomes,
Speaker 4: meaning there has been hundreds of millions of dollars in
Speaker 4: reduce revenue because so many favorites are winning this year,
Speaker 4: so many more than expected, right, And what that means
Speaker 4: is that teams like the Chargers have been over exceeding
Speaker 4: the expectations favorites because they do exactly what you want
Speaker 4: them to do. They don't make high variant coaching decisions
Speaker 4: because Harbaught is very consistent. You know what he's going
Speaker 4: to do. They don't turn the ball over. They're really disciplined,
Speaker 4: so they don't have the stupid penalties that a lot
Speaker 4: of other teams have having and those things have been
Speaker 4: impacting the games in a much wider way than they
Speaker 4: have in previous years. So that's why people like the
Speaker 4: Chargers right now is the Chargers are making people money.
Speaker 4: But the sharp side in this game are the Bengals.
Speaker 2: Always a game I want you to pick for me.
Speaker 2: I like Denver at home minus two and a half
Speaker 2: against Atlanta. Kirk Cousins not one hundred percent Pennix could play,
Speaker 2: and though he played it Indiana and Washington, cold wet
Speaker 2: weather areas, it's a tough opening assignment. Denver's getting a
Speaker 2: tremendous pass rush. I do worry that out playing Kansas
Speaker 2: City and losing the way they did is an emotional
Speaker 2: gut punch for the Broncos. I do think there's something there.
Speaker 2: But bo Nicks and this Denver team, they know they're
Speaker 2: not a hoisted trophy team, like they know they're going
Speaker 2: to lose games like this. They have a rookie quarterback,
Speaker 2: a thin roster, and I think there's value in playing
Speaker 2: close and out playing the Super Bowl champs. I think
Speaker 2: they actually come out of that game thinking shit, bo
Speaker 2: Nicks out played Mahomes. I don't think this is a
Speaker 2: veteran team that really SAgs and thinks. You know, Buffalo
Speaker 2: losing to the Chiefs again the following week, you like,
Speaker 2: you really have a low energy locker room. I'm going
Speaker 2: to take Denver here. Tell me why I'm right or wrong.
Speaker 4: Well, I actually cannot decide on this game. It's so
Speaker 4: interesting you bring it up because early in the week
Speaker 4: I loved Atlanta. Here I thought to myself, Atlanta really
Speaker 4: shouldn't have lost that game, and against New Orleans, and
Speaker 4: you know I love New Orleans. Last week I tried
Speaker 4: to get you to come along with me on New Orleans.
Speaker 4: You are not having it. You will not that game
Speaker 4: I want. You don't want to watch. You totally get it.
Speaker 4: Respect the theory, but I felt like at the end
Speaker 4: of the game, New Orleans scored three points in the
Speaker 4: second half, the Falcons missed multiple field goals, including a
Speaker 4: field goal that could have tied the game with six
Speaker 4: minutes left. They had a very unlucky game. And now
Speaker 4: you got Kirk Cousins, who just historically is great against
Speaker 4: the spread, great straight up coming off a loss. I
Speaker 4: really like the the Falcons have been running the ball.
Speaker 4: Bijon has been a different level of player than he
Speaker 4: was in his rookie season. He's showing all the things
Speaker 4: that everyone was excited about, receding out of the backfield,
Speaker 4: his ability to run away from tacklers, the ability to
Speaker 4: run people over. I then thought about, Okay, two and
Speaker 4: a half feels high. You know, it feels like you're
Speaker 4: overvaluing the Broncos and their ability to and what they
Speaker 4: did against the Chiefs, And I, like you, I felt
Speaker 4: like the chief the Broncos walk away that of that
Speaker 4: game against the Chiefs and be like, we're emboldened. I
Speaker 4: would not be crushifyed with them at all. I'd be
Speaker 4: going into a thinking, Wow, we can hang like we
Speaker 4: are a really good team. And you and I have
Speaker 4: talked about this where Sean Payton has done with bo Nicks,
Speaker 4: talk about the opposite of Caleb Williams right like he
Speaker 4: has basically throwing the book at him and gotten him
Speaker 4: better and better and better every single week. And that
Speaker 4: Falcons defense, they don't pressure Anybody going to look at
Speaker 4: this and be like are they even playing defense? Is
Speaker 4: anybody trying to come after me? Because of the difference
Speaker 4: between how aggressive the Chiefs are. So I'm having a
Speaker 4: hard time finding the winner in this one. I don't
Speaker 4: I'm probably not going to bet it. I don't have
Speaker 4: a strong opinion. The wise guys don't really have a
Speaker 4: strong opinion on this either. They lean Denver. But you're
Speaker 4: not seeing people running to the window saying, I got
Speaker 4: to get a ticket on the Broncos.
Speaker 2: Finally, what's the game I should be betting that I
Speaker 2: have overlooked?
Speaker 4: I mean, I can't believe I have to say it,
Speaker 4: but hello Cleveland, Like, are you kidding me? We've got
Speaker 4: the Browns off a by with a healthier defense. You
Speaker 4: look at their you look at their injury report, there's
Speaker 4: nobody on it. So Kevin Stefanski builds a game plan
Speaker 4: where he's basically just handing the ball to Nick Chubb
Speaker 4: behind what if it had been healthy from the beginning
Speaker 4: of the year, would have been a top five offensive line,
Speaker 4: and you've got a top five defensive line going against
Speaker 4: Derek Carr, who, when he's not pressured, as we saw
Speaker 4: against the Falcons, can be a really good quarterback, and
Speaker 4: when he is pressured basically becomes one of the most
Speaker 4: losing quarterbacks in NFL history. So how am I not
Speaker 4: vetting the Browns after the Saints basically just won their
Speaker 4: Super Bowl. This was the game they had to win.
Speaker 4: I will not bet on the Saints again this year.
Speaker 4: That was a one time thing. Now I'll bet the Browns.
Speaker 4: And by the way, the wise guys have been betting
Speaker 4: the Browns. The line open to two and a half,
Speaker 4: down to two, one and a half one, now it's
Speaker 4: a half. There are a lot of places where the
Speaker 4: Browns it's going to flip and they're going to be favorite.
Speaker 4: So if you want to get it, get it now.
Speaker 2: Cleveland minus one at New Orleans. How disgusting, So disgusting that.
Speaker 4: You are betting on Jamis in his homecoming revenge game
Speaker 4: in New Orleans, the team that ran him out of
Speaker 4: town after he got Jamal Williams a touchdown last year,
Speaker 4: Like he is going to, Kevin Stefanski is going to
Speaker 4: have to do everything he can possibly do to keep
Speaker 4: Jamis from making terrible, terrible throws and putting him in
Speaker 4: bad positions and then the fifteen times that he asks
Speaker 4: him to throw in the game. He's just got to
Speaker 4: cross his fingers.
Speaker 2: And pray any feeling on the Seahawks getting six and
Speaker 2: a half at San Francisco zero same I get same.
Speaker 4: I can't get the Niners. You look at the box score,
Speaker 4: they should have beaten the Buccaneers by nine hundred points.
Speaker 2: I believe me. It was my lock of that year
Speaker 2: San Francisco.
Speaker 4: Yeah, it made no sense. And even like the Jake
Speaker 4: Moody misses, if he had made one of those field goals,
Speaker 4: the last field goal, they still win by six and
Speaker 4: they cover the five and a half. So it makes
Speaker 4: no sense to me. Their red zone struggles continue. You
Speaker 4: got to wonder how much does Brandon I you not
Speaker 4: being there really make a difference. Clearly it's something. It's
Speaker 4: more than just Debo and any injuries or Christian mccaffree
Speaker 4: and any injuries. I also wonder, Look Trent Williams, who
Speaker 4: we love and is a dominant offensive lineman and one
Speaker 4: of the best in the NFL. He missed all a
Speaker 4: training camp and he's old, So you got to ask yourself,
Speaker 4: all right, did that actually have more of an impact.
Speaker 4: They aren't as dominant an offensive line. They already weren't
Speaker 4: a great offensive line going into the season, and what
Speaker 4: Kyle Shanahan's schemes usually masks that deficiency less so this year.
Speaker 4: So I don't have any opinion on this. Meanwhile, the
Speaker 4: Seahawks like they just waive their leading tackler. I think
Speaker 4: they're still trying to figure out who they are defensively,
Speaker 4: so I'm going to pass on this game.
Speaker 2: As always. Chad Milman, Thanks man, good to see your brother.
Speaker 1: The volume.
Speaker 2: Thanks so much for listening. If you've enjoyed the podcast,
Speaker 2: take a moment rate and review