WEBVTT - Single Best Idea with Tom Keene: Anna Wong

0:00:02.520 --> 0:00:14.160
<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. A single best idea

0:00:14.240 --> 0:00:16.720
<v Speaker 1>and to give you a window into my single best

0:00:16.760 --> 0:00:21.440
<v Speaker 1>idea today is the Bloomberg message screen this morning at

0:00:21.480 --> 0:00:25.520
<v Speaker 1>eight thirty one lit up like a candle. Every inflation

0:00:25.680 --> 0:00:29.200
<v Speaker 1>reports important, some are more important than others. And then

0:00:29.320 --> 0:00:32.400
<v Speaker 1>with the government shut down, with the dearth of data,

0:00:32.479 --> 0:00:34.880
<v Speaker 1>Cameron christ was brilliant where he said, look, they just

0:00:34.960 --> 0:00:39.720
<v Speaker 1>dropped zero's into some of the unknown unknowns. The uproar

0:00:40.200 --> 0:00:44.760
<v Speaker 1>that Paul Sweeney and I saw after the inflation report,

0:00:44.800 --> 0:00:49.760
<v Speaker 1>the disinflation report was truly extraordinary. I got a blistering

0:00:49.800 --> 0:00:54.400
<v Speaker 1>note in from David Rosenberg who believes in disinflation. Anna

0:00:54.480 --> 0:00:58.640
<v Speaker 1>Wong agrees with David Rosenberg. She was very nuanced. We

0:00:58.680 --> 0:01:02.360
<v Speaker 1>had six seven, eight wonderful guests in today and along

0:01:02.480 --> 0:01:08.160
<v Speaker 1>of Bloomberg Economics linking this inflation report into the labor economy, well,

0:01:08.200 --> 0:01:08.839
<v Speaker 1>I think that.

0:01:08.760 --> 0:01:12.679
<v Speaker 2>There is an underlying weakness in the labor market. I

0:01:12.720 --> 0:01:18.720
<v Speaker 2>think so Tom productivity boom happens when you have revenues

0:01:18.760 --> 0:01:21.640
<v Speaker 2>still rising and the micro level and the macro level

0:01:21.680 --> 0:01:24.679
<v Speaker 2>GDP will be strong in the first quarter. We know

0:01:25.240 --> 0:01:28.080
<v Speaker 2>that the shutdown, the rebounds from the shutdown is going

0:01:28.120 --> 0:01:31.120
<v Speaker 2>to going to boost first quarter GDP by about two

0:01:31.120 --> 0:01:34.959
<v Speaker 2>percentage point, yet the hiring is close to zero. That

0:01:35.040 --> 0:01:38.640
<v Speaker 2>means productivity is going to be growing at maybe three

0:01:38.760 --> 0:01:41.600
<v Speaker 2>percent in the first quarter of next year. So I

0:01:41.640 --> 0:01:43.680
<v Speaker 2>think that's what you're saying. You can have a week

0:01:43.800 --> 0:01:47.280
<v Speaker 2>labor market while you have a productivity boom. And I

0:01:47.360 --> 0:01:50.880
<v Speaker 2>think I think that a weak labor market and a

0:01:50.920 --> 0:01:54.800
<v Speaker 2>strong economy, those two narrative can go in parallel.

0:01:55.160 --> 0:01:59.800
<v Speaker 1>Animong there talking about the surely the dynamics to pushing

0:01:59.840 --> 0:02:02.440
<v Speaker 1>the pull of how we come to a belief on

0:02:02.520 --> 0:02:07.840
<v Speaker 1>our economic future. Again, raging debate about this inflation report

0:02:08.040 --> 0:02:10.760
<v Speaker 1>with all the knock on effects of a shutdown just

0:02:10.800 --> 0:02:14.200
<v Speaker 1>as a one off Stephanie Roth nailed this this morning

0:02:14.240 --> 0:02:17.080
<v Speaker 1>in the heat of it at eight thirty two. Airlines

0:02:17.120 --> 0:02:21.959
<v Speaker 1>with huge disinflation into those statistics and other things, frankly

0:02:22.480 --> 0:02:26.960
<v Speaker 1>showing a persistent inflation. Some of the shelter and medical

0:02:27.040 --> 0:02:30.400
<v Speaker 1>costs would be highlighted. They're all much more on it

0:02:30.440 --> 0:02:33.280
<v Speaker 1>over the next twenty four hours with Michael McKee's a

0:02:33.360 --> 0:02:37.680
<v Speaker 1>leadership and our team in Washington. Again Ana Wong linking

0:02:37.720 --> 0:02:41.560
<v Speaker 1>this into FED policy in the Great American experiment.

0:02:42.080 --> 0:02:45.280
<v Speaker 2>The very reason why we're not seeing inflation is because

0:02:45.360 --> 0:02:49.760
<v Speaker 2>the consumers are in trouble. The labor market weakness is real,

0:02:49.919 --> 0:02:53.440
<v Speaker 2>and consumers are feeling pinched. That's why firms have been

0:02:53.520 --> 0:02:58.240
<v Speaker 2>losing pricing power. So I think that trend will go

0:02:58.360 --> 0:03:01.560
<v Speaker 2>on for another six months or so, and then after

0:03:01.600 --> 0:03:04.680
<v Speaker 2>the tax season, as consumers have more money in their pocket,

0:03:05.080 --> 0:03:08.520
<v Speaker 2>maybe a couple thousand more, there you might see some

0:03:08.639 --> 0:03:11.079
<v Speaker 2>of this disinflationary pressure slowing.

0:03:11.320 --> 0:03:13.680
<v Speaker 1>The word that I use on this, and she alluded

0:03:13.720 --> 0:03:18.400
<v Speaker 1>to it there. Doctor Wong was discussing the ambiguity the

0:03:18.520 --> 0:03:22.440
<v Speaker 1>outcome of a certain trend. So if we have disinflation,

0:03:23.320 --> 0:03:28.919
<v Speaker 1>if we have a quote unquote weaker consumer, if prices

0:03:29.000 --> 0:03:31.880
<v Speaker 1>come down, what does it mean Is that good? Is

0:03:31.880 --> 0:03:34.920
<v Speaker 1>it bad? Coloring all of what we do at surveillance

0:03:35.360 --> 0:03:39.440
<v Speaker 1>To borrow a phrase from doctor Wong Chicago, is about

0:03:39.520 --> 0:03:44.320
<v Speaker 1>price theory and the ambiguous outcomes that are out there.

0:03:44.560 --> 0:03:46.440
<v Speaker 1>Reason enough to stay with us. I looked it up

0:03:46.480 --> 0:03:50.560
<v Speaker 1>on the Bloomberg Eco Goo January ninth and on the

0:03:50.680 --> 0:03:54.920
<v Speaker 1>January thirteenth to get some clarity on the data before

0:03:54.960 --> 0:03:58.840
<v Speaker 1>that important January FED meeting on Podcasts are on Apple

0:03:58.960 --> 0:04:06.120
<v Speaker 1>or on Spotify. On YouTube podcast single, best Idea,