Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. A single best idea
Speaker 1: and to give you a window into my single best
Speaker 1: idea today is the Bloomberg message screen this morning at
Speaker 1: eight thirty one lit up like a candle. Every inflation
Speaker 1: reports important, some are more important than others. And then
Speaker 1: with the government shut down, with the dearth of data,
Speaker 1: Cameron christ was brilliant where he said, look, they just
Speaker 1: dropped zero's into some of the unknown unknowns. The uproar
Speaker 1: that Paul Sweeney and I saw after the inflation report,
Speaker 1: the disinflation report was truly extraordinary. I got a blistering
Speaker 1: note in from David Rosenberg who believes in disinflation. Anna
Speaker 1: Wong agrees with David Rosenberg. She was very nuanced. We
Speaker 1: had six seven, eight wonderful guests in today and along
Speaker 1: of Bloomberg Economics linking this inflation report into the labor economy, well,
Speaker 1: I think that.
Speaker 2: There is an underlying weakness in the labor market. I
Speaker 2: think so Tom productivity boom happens when you have revenues
Speaker 2: still rising and the micro level and the macro level
Speaker 2: GDP will be strong in the first quarter. We know
Speaker 2: that the shutdown, the rebounds from the shutdown is going
Speaker 2: to going to boost first quarter GDP by about two
Speaker 2: percentage point, yet the hiring is close to zero. That
Speaker 2: means productivity is going to be growing at maybe three
Speaker 2: percent in the first quarter of next year. So I
Speaker 2: think that's what you're saying. You can have a week
Speaker 2: labor market while you have a productivity boom. And I
Speaker 2: think I think that a weak labor market and a
Speaker 2: strong economy, those two narrative can go in parallel.
Speaker 1: Animong there talking about the surely the dynamics to pushing
Speaker 1: the pull of how we come to a belief on
Speaker 1: our economic future. Again, raging debate about this inflation report
Speaker 1: with all the knock on effects of a shutdown just
Speaker 1: as a one off Stephanie Roth nailed this this morning
Speaker 1: in the heat of it at eight thirty two. Airlines
Speaker 1: with huge disinflation into those statistics and other things, frankly
Speaker 1: showing a persistent inflation. Some of the shelter and medical
Speaker 1: costs would be highlighted. They're all much more on it
Speaker 1: over the next twenty four hours with Michael McKee's a
Speaker 1: leadership and our team in Washington. Again Ana Wong linking
Speaker 1: this into FED policy in the Great American experiment.
Speaker 2: The very reason why we're not seeing inflation is because
Speaker 2: the consumers are in trouble. The labor market weakness is real,
Speaker 2: and consumers are feeling pinched. That's why firms have been
Speaker 2: losing pricing power. So I think that trend will go
Speaker 2: on for another six months or so, and then after
Speaker 2: the tax season, as consumers have more money in their pocket,
Speaker 2: maybe a couple thousand more, there you might see some
Speaker 2: of this disinflationary pressure slowing.
Speaker 1: The word that I use on this, and she alluded
Speaker 1: to it there. Doctor Wong was discussing the ambiguity the
Speaker 1: outcome of a certain trend. So if we have disinflation,
Speaker 1: if we have a quote unquote weaker consumer, if prices
Speaker 1: come down, what does it mean Is that good? Is
Speaker 1: it bad? Coloring all of what we do at surveillance
Speaker 1: To borrow a phrase from doctor Wong Chicago, is about
Speaker 1: price theory and the ambiguous outcomes that are out there.
Speaker 1: Reason enough to stay with us. I looked it up
Speaker 1: on the Bloomberg Eco Goo January ninth and on the
Speaker 1: January thirteenth to get some clarity on the data before
Speaker 1: that important January FED meeting on Podcasts are on Apple
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