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Speaker 1: I feel like it's gonna be a great show. Already

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Speaker 1: threatened to sue multiple people in the live chat. One

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Speaker 1: of hooms, just did you see this, Jesse? Somebody just

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Speaker 1: gave us two dollars. Andrew gave us two dollars on

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Speaker 1: a superchat. I got news for you, Andrew. We don't

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Speaker 1: need two dollars. We already have two dollars. And on

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Speaker 1: a much more serious note, I keep meaning to turn

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Speaker 1: the super chat function off because you please don't be

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Speaker 1: giving us your money. The show's free. It's free for

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Speaker 1: a reason. We got quick trip for all that. We're

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Speaker 1: jam packed. We're high a top, lovely downtown Nashville, Tennessee.

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Speaker 1: Tuesday Night, October fourteenth, the Year of Our Lord, twenty

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Speaker 1: twenty five. What do we do on Tuesday? We predict games.

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Speaker 1: Got a pretty loaded schedule this weekend. Some people's lives,

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Speaker 1: at least they're playoff lives, could be ruined. Speaking of

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Speaker 1: playoff lives, mine has kind of been ruined at least

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Speaker 1: in some respects from the preseason predictions I made. But

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Speaker 1: you see, that's why God gives us redos in life.

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Speaker 1: And one of life's great mulligans is when you get

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Speaker 1: to around week seven or week eight. In the college

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Speaker 1: football talking sphere, you could just make new predictions. We

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Speaker 1: check the bylaws today, there is no rule against it.

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Speaker 1: So tonight I'm just re racking them. The playoff balls,

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Speaker 1: at least I'm re racking them, and I'm telling you,

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Speaker 1: as of today, how do I think the Playoff's going

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Speaker 1: to go? But just be forewarned, I'm not letting go

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Speaker 1: of some of these teams that are all but left

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Speaker 1: for debt. I'm not letting go of some of them.

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Speaker 1: So I've got that. I've got a brand new JP pole.

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Speaker 1: We got a lot to talk about with Penn States,

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Speaker 1: and people have called my takes into question Jesse, and

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Speaker 1: Jesse has done very little to stand up for me

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Speaker 1: in the Penn State world, So I got to stand

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Speaker 1: up for myself here. And we'll also discuss where they

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Speaker 1: could go. Are they going to hire Matt Random, Marcus Freeman,

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Speaker 1: rumblings out there, what's real, what's fake? We'll talk about

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Speaker 1: all of it. And they're watching us in Amarillo, Texas tonight.

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Speaker 1: That's not something we're gonna cover on the show. I'm

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Speaker 1: just telling you they're watching us in Amarillo. They're watching

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Speaker 1: us in Akron, Ohio, Gainesville, Florida, Baltimore, Maryland. I want

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Speaker 1: to give a rare one two three triple paper pop.

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Speaker 1: I asked you pretty forcefully on the show Sunday night,

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Speaker 1: subscribe to the channel. Please. Four thousand of you did so.

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Speaker 1: We got four thousand subs on Sunday and early Monday morning,

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Speaker 1: so I appreciate it. So if you're one of the

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Speaker 1: few remaining out there who love college football and haven't

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Speaker 1: subed to the channel, please do so, because it's free

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Speaker 1: and it doesn't cost you, sorrowing you up for anything,

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Speaker 1: It doesn't do anything to you. It just helps us.

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Speaker 1: Thank you so much. All right, let's go dive into

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Speaker 1: the show. I come to you on this Tuesday night

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Speaker 1: here in mid October begging you to let me repredict

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Speaker 1: the college football playoff, and I hear no voice of dissent,

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Speaker 1: raise your hand. And if you're against this, all right,

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Speaker 1: no one objected in the studio. So here we go.

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Speaker 1: The first thing you need to know is, at the

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Speaker 1: beginning of the season, reluctantly I predicted the playoff. I

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Speaker 1: say reluctantly because I don't think there's a whole lot

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Speaker 1: of skill in this. This is what it looked like. Yes,

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Speaker 1: that's the Florida Gator logo up there with the eight seed.

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Speaker 1: I don't think it's going to work out for Napier

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Speaker 1: and the boys. Yes, that's Penn State with a first

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Speaker 1: round by I'm not even feeling that bad about that.

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Speaker 1: I think most people, at least that I saw, had

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Speaker 1: Penn State in the playoff. And as we all know,

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Speaker 1: if you do something bad but a lot of other

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Speaker 1: people do it too, it's not your fault. It's written somewhere.

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Speaker 1: So let's see Clemson with a five seed down there,

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Speaker 1: not feeling great about that, We're probably going to have

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Speaker 1: to rethink that. You'll notice Nebraska has the eleven seed.

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Speaker 1: More on that in a second Arizona State not too good,

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Speaker 1: Texas not too good, not quite dead. So yeah, there's

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Speaker 1: some stuff in here that frankly I wish I had back.

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Speaker 1: But we can't go back in time. But what we

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Speaker 1: can do tonight is we can just say, let's just

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Speaker 1: repredict it. So I'm going to repredict playoff and I'm

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Speaker 1: gonna do it conference by conference, and then I'll show

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Speaker 1: you what my one through twelve would be. And I

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Speaker 1: know a lot of you listen on podcasts, so it's

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Speaker 1: not going to be strictly visual, and you got to

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Speaker 1: remind me of that, Jesse. I will lay it all

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Speaker 1: out for you. So here we go. In the SEC,

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Speaker 1: it's a jumbled mess. Well it's not a mess because

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Speaker 1: it's entertaining. It's just hard to figure out. The SEC

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Speaker 1: is what the Big Twelve used to be. Ironically, the

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Speaker 1: Big Twelve has become what the SEC used to be.

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Speaker 1: One of them is really easy to figure out, and

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Speaker 1: the other one. We've got ten teams with zero or

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Speaker 1: one conference losses. Yes, that's the state of the SEC now.

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Speaker 1: Of course, mathematically that can't continue. Ole Miss plays Georgia Saturday,

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Speaker 1: LSU plays Vandy Saturday, Tennessee plays Alabama Saturday. So a

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Speaker 1: lot of these teams are about to collide and we'll

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Speaker 1: see where it goes. I feel pretty good about two

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Speaker 1: of these. But you'll notice if you look at the

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Speaker 1: league standings, Ole Miss is right up there. For example,

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Speaker 1: they've got no conference losses so far, A and M

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Speaker 1: and Alabama only undefeated SEC teams in league play. The

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Speaker 1: odds right now, I think makes sense. So the odds

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Speaker 1: at FanDuel to win the SEC are Alabama, and then

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Speaker 1: A and M. There's a little gap between Bama and

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Speaker 1: A and M. George's right there, and then it's a

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Speaker 1: little bit of a gap, and then Ole Miss Texas

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Speaker 1: is still there. Then there's a huge drop off. So

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Speaker 1: you've really got a lead pack of five teams. And

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Speaker 1: I think it's interesting that LSU is not part of

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Speaker 1: that lead pack. Missouri is not part of that league pack.

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Speaker 1: So from a FanDuel perspective, from a market perspective, they're

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Speaker 1: saying Bama absolutely the favorite, A and M, Georgia, Ole,

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Speaker 1: Miss even Texas, we could see it. I will choose

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Speaker 1: those top two teams there. Bama was my preseason SEC

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Speaker 1: championship pick. They haven't even lost a conference game, and

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Speaker 1: they've gotten a lot of the losable games out of

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Speaker 1: the way. Still got a few to go, but I'll

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Speaker 1: ride with them. But I am going to switch up

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Speaker 1: the team that I think they'll play. I will put Texas,

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Speaker 1: A and M in Atlanta. That'll be the first time

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Speaker 1: they've been there since they been in the league. That

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Speaker 1: would be just a huge, huge feather in the cap

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Speaker 1: of Mike Elko even making it there in year two

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Speaker 1: of his tenure there. So give me Bama over A

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Speaker 1: and M in the SEC championship game, and then we'll

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Speaker 1: pause and we'll see what that means for seeding next

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Speaker 1: up Big Ten. It's not totally clear, but it's coming

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Speaker 1: into form really really quickly. Here. Ohio State and Indiana

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Speaker 1: have been the class of this conference so far. I

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Speaker 1: to me, I'm more worried about how does the rest

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Speaker 1: of the conference backfill? By that, I mean, if it

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Speaker 1: is Ohio State in Indiana one to two in any order,

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Speaker 1: then what is Oregon? What is USC? What is Nebraska, Washington, Michigan? Like,

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Speaker 1: how much of it's, say, are these other teams downstream

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Speaker 1: in the Big Ten standings going to have in the

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Speaker 1: playoff bracket? So like Nebraska, for example, I had them

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Speaker 1: in my preseason playoff bracket. I think it the eleven seed,

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Speaker 1: and right now they're sitting here still having to play

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Speaker 1: at Minnesota, they got Northwestern, USC, at UCLA, at Penn

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Speaker 1: State and Iowa. A lot of losable games, like Nebraska's

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Speaker 1: far from invincible, But the one that you kept looking

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Speaker 1: at after they lost to Michigan a couple of weeks

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Speaker 1: ago was, uh, oh, they've still got to go two.

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Speaker 1: Penn State towards the end of the year. Well, that

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Speaker 1: does not carry the same weight as a sentence that

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Speaker 1: it used to. So there is no one hurdle there

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Speaker 1: that you look at and say, there's the definitive second

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Speaker 1: loss in totality. Do I think Nebraska is a good

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Speaker 1: enough team where I can start penciling w's in there. No,

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Speaker 1: I do not. However, I predicted them in the preseason,

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Speaker 1: and I can't come off of this. So if there's

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Speaker 1: some team that's going to weave their way through there

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Speaker 1: as an at large team, I'm still holding out hope

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Speaker 1: for Nebraska. As for the Big Ten championship picture, Ohio

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Speaker 1: State in Indiana, and I have a sneaking suspicion a

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Speaker 1: lot of folks out there in very expensive suits are

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Speaker 1: pulling for USC to upset that there's USC could go

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Speaker 1: on a run here. You've got to wonder how meaningful

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Speaker 1: to the Big Ten championship picture will that USC at

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Speaker 1: Oregon game be a little bit later in the year.

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Speaker 1: For that matter, Oregon the week after, I think, plays

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Speaker 1: Washington this weekend, Washington goes to Michigan. That outcome will

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Speaker 1: start to determine how much weight that Washington Oregon game

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Speaker 1: could carry. That's a long way down the road. Give

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Speaker 1: me Ohio State against Indiana in the Big Ten championship

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Speaker 1: game until further notice. I will ride with Ohio State.

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Speaker 1: They are favored to win the conference. And then it's

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Speaker 1: Indiana and then there is a huge drop off, like

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Speaker 1: a roller coaster drop off to Oregon and then another

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Speaker 1: huge drop off to Michigan. So the Big Ten picture

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Speaker 1: as of right now, it's really in focus, and some

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Speaker 1: stuff has to go wrong, and by that I mean

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Speaker 1: Indiana has to somehow lose a football game or Ohio

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Speaker 1: State for things to change. In the Big Twelve. Here

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Speaker 1: we go with Texas Tech just a runaway freight train.

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Speaker 1: But Josh, I'm looking at the league standings on the screen.

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Speaker 1: They're one of three undefeated teams in conference play. Yes

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Speaker 1: they are. Now, I'm not taking anything away from Brigham Young.

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Speaker 1: I'm just saying, you see Texas Tech and Cincinnati and

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Speaker 1: Utah all there in the top five. BYU still has

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Speaker 1: to play all of them. They just hadn't played him yet.

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Speaker 1: So from a JP Pole power rating perspective, we don't

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Speaker 1: think as highly of Brigham Young as some of these

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Speaker 1: other teams. So I don't view them as a conference

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Speaker 1: championship contender at the moment, but upsets happen every Saturday.

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Speaker 1: They're really good at it. They play Utah Saturday. Actually,

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Speaker 1: so like this stuff could change in the next twenty

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Speaker 1: four forty eight seventy two ninety six hours. You got

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Speaker 1: to run the numbers here on the desk. Cincinnati versus

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Speaker 1: Utah could be a play in game for the conference

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Speaker 1: title game when they do face off. I think Iowa

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Speaker 1: State already with two conference losses, it's tough to see.

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Speaker 1: Plus they're really badly beat up. TCU in Kansas State

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Speaker 1: also have two conference losses. So for the Big Twelve

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Speaker 1: championship game, Texas Tech I think is going to be there.

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Speaker 1: They are the current fairly overwhelming favorite to win the

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Speaker 1: whole thing in the Big Twelve. I think they're gonna

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Speaker 1: be there. I think they're gonna have a rematch against Utah.

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Speaker 1: And it's very interesting that everyone's gonna remember, well, that

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Speaker 1: game already happened, and it happened in Salt Lake City,

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Speaker 1: and Texas Tech rolled half the game with their backup

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Speaker 1: quarterback and they still rolled. They did. There is no

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Speaker 1: catch there they did. I think you'd be somewhat surprised

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Speaker 1: at how low that point spread would be. Just keep

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Speaker 1: that in mind. Still a ways to go, But if

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Speaker 1: that game does happen, you had to blow out in

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Speaker 1: Salt Lake City, I think you may be surprised, relatively speaking,

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Speaker 1: how low that point spread would be. Because Texas Tech

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Speaker 1: plays at Arizona State this weekend. They're a double digit favorite,

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Speaker 1: So like you're having to lay a heavy number if

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Speaker 1: you're betting Texas Tech right now. In the ACC, this

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Speaker 1: is the conference where the weirdness could happen. It used

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Speaker 1: to be the Big Twelve. The Big Twelve makes a

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Speaker 1: lot of sense right now on paper. The ACC this

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Speaker 1: is where the weirdness could happen. Miami's looked like the

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Speaker 1: best team here so far, I will grant you that.

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Speaker 1: But Duke SMU, Virginia, Georgia Tech, they're all undefeated in

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Speaker 1: conference play right now, and they don't all play each other,

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Speaker 1: and they don't all play a murderer's row of a schedule,

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Speaker 1: So you need to also keep in mind in fact, Jesse,

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Speaker 1: do we have Miami's schedule. You need to keep in

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Speaker 1: mind how Miami season ends. It's very very clear right

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Speaker 1: now Miami is going to be favored over everyone they play.

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Speaker 1: They may be favored most weeks by double digits, but

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Speaker 1: they have taken their last buy. They play Louisville this

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Speaker 1: Friday night, I believe, and from that point on it's

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Speaker 1: all conference games and they do not take another bye week.

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Speaker 1: So count them right here with me. One two, three, four, five, six,

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Speaker 1: seven games in a row to end the regular season.

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Speaker 1: The last two weeks weeks are on the road in

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Speaker 1: cold weather cities, at Virginia Tech and at Pittsburgh. If

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Speaker 1: they are to make it to the ACC Championship game,

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Speaker 1: that would be a third consecutive week on the road.

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Speaker 1: We've been talking about this since spring. It is very,

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Speaker 1: very unenviable a spot to be placed in by the

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Speaker 1: schedule makers. Now, if you're an Oklahoma fan and you

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Speaker 1: know the schedule you have to play, you're looking at

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Speaker 1: that saying I would trade for that in a heartbeat.

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Speaker 1: I know you would. Of course you would. I'm not

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Speaker 1: sitting here saying that this is the toughest schedule you've

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Speaker 1: ever seen. It's a really weird dynamics based schedule, that's

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Speaker 1: all I'm saying. So if they go to Charlotte, which

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Speaker 1: I think they will. I've got Miami playing for the

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Speaker 1: ACC Championship game. They're the current minus one eighty favorite

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Speaker 1: to win the ACC. I think they'll be there. I've

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Speaker 1: got them playing the team that has the second best

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Speaker 1: odds to win the league right now, Georgia Tech. I

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Speaker 1: have not budged off that I had Georgia Tech playing

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Speaker 1: for the ACC Championship game before it was cool to

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Speaker 1: have Georgia Tech playing in Charlotte. You give me my

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Speaker 1: Miami to beat Georgia Tech in Charlotte. However, just keep

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Speaker 1: in mind, as we start to get towards what could

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Speaker 1: potentially tear the bracket apart, Georgia Tech's going to be

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Speaker 1: playing a team that may be beat up. Now. You

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Speaker 1: don't know about the injury situation with Miami. Miami is

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Speaker 1: a very star studed team. There are portions of that

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Speaker 1: Miami roster, just like with a lot of these high

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Speaker 1: level teams, where you remove the number one from this

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Speaker 1: position group or that position group, and there is a

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Speaker 1: fairly sizable drop off to the number two. Now, if

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Speaker 1: they stay healthy, that's a moot point. This is college football.

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Speaker 1: It's not a fairytale world. No one stays totally healthy.

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Speaker 1: She just never know what situation they may be in.

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Speaker 1: All right, let's take a look at what I think

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Speaker 1: the seeding will be. So I just gave you my

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Speaker 1: conference championship updated winners. Here is where I would have

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Speaker 1: the seating right now. I got Ohio State winning the

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Speaker 1: Big Ten, so they'd be my number one overall. I

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Speaker 1: got Miami winning the ACC they're my number two. Texas

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Speaker 1: Tech roles to win the Big Twelve, that's my number three,

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Speaker 1: and I got Bama as the SEC champ. I'm not

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Speaker 1: so sure. Bama may not lose another game though, just

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Speaker 1: a little bit tougher schedule than some of these other

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Speaker 1: teams here. That's why I've got Bama number four. If

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Speaker 1: Bama don't lose another game and they win the seced,

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Speaker 1: that'd be the two seed. But give me Bama as

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Speaker 1: the four seed. All right, Big Ten Championship game loser

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Speaker 1: Indiana as of now, I've got to assume that's their

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Speaker 1: first loss of the season, so they're going to be

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Speaker 1: right there in the five seed. A and M if

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Speaker 1: that's their first or even second loss of the season.

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Speaker 1: If a zero or one loss, A and M is

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Speaker 1: in Atlanta, they're not dropping past six. So I think

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Speaker 1: pretty solidly you're big ten in SEC title game. Losers

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Speaker 1: are right there at five and six. That's Indiana and

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Speaker 1: A and M. I got Oregon at the seven seed

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Speaker 1: as an at large. I got ole Miss as an

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Speaker 1: at large at number eight. I'm rolling the dice a

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Speaker 1: little bit there. Ole Miss could pop on the national

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Speaker 1: radar big time this weekend. They could be exposed as

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Speaker 1: a fraud this weekend. Like there's high variants in that

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Speaker 1: Georgia game. Ironically, I've got Georgia as the nine seed,

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Speaker 1: so give me a old mess Georgia eight nine. I've

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Speaker 1: got Notre Dame in the playoff as of now. There's

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Speaker 1: a lot of debate to be had there, and I

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Speaker 1: will have that debate in just a second. I'm sticking

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Speaker 1: with Nebraska at number eleven. I had it in the preseason.

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Speaker 1: I'm not coming off Nebraska. You've got to you got

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Speaker 1: to kill some of my predictions before I'm willing to

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Speaker 1: let them go. And I've got usf currently as the

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Speaker 1: G five team. Whoever the G five team is, they'll

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Speaker 1: be in that twelve spot. So the first thing that

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Speaker 1: is going to immediately come to the forefront here before

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Speaker 1: I show you the entire bracket is how will Notre

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Speaker 1: Dame get paired or compared with some of these other teams.

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Speaker 1: Notre Dame right now, so the two loss team, they

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Speaker 1: have Southern col this weekend. If they lose this weekend,

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Speaker 1: they will not be a playoff team. There are some

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Speaker 1: people out there who claim even if Notre Dame were

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Speaker 1: to win out right now, they still may not make

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Speaker 1: the playoff. Now, my whole philosophy on that is, consider

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Speaker 1: what we're saying there. Notre Dame right now is four

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Speaker 1: and two. Their losses are to Miami by three and

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Speaker 1: to amm by one. So theoretically, here that would be

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Speaker 1: two losses by a combined four points two playoff teams,

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Speaker 1: one of them being a conference champ, the other participated

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Speaker 1: in their conference championship game. So those are about as

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Speaker 1: high quality losses as you could have. And the committee,

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Speaker 1: I think will be looking at that and then also

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Speaker 1: looking at the fact that they just rattled off ten

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Speaker 1: straight wins, and they'll be saying things like they're the

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Speaker 1: hottest team in the country, and I think they'll also

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Speaker 1: be a talking point. Now, this is just priming you

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Speaker 1: for this. I think if Notre Dame rattles off ten

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Speaker 1: straight and they finished ten and two. There will be

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Speaker 1: a very popular sort of focus grouped talking point that

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Speaker 1: starts to circulate about how if Notre Dame would have

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Speaker 1: played Miami and A and M in the middle of

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Speaker 1: the season after they got hot, maybe one of those

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Speaker 1: games goes their way, and you can't disprove that. I

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Speaker 1: just think it'll be inition in the in the chamber

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Speaker 1: of someone who's already looking to make the Notre Dame argument.

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Speaker 1: I'm just wondering how they get compared to like a

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Speaker 1: three loss SCC team or even some two loss teams.

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Speaker 1: Just that's going to be a big debate. It's impossible

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Speaker 1: to know who A and B is right now. Notre

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Speaker 1: Dame would be A. It's impossible to know who the

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Speaker 1: B is right now. So you got that big twelve

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Speaker 1: and ACC championship game could completely tear this bracket apart

336
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Speaker 1: because right now, like in my projection, I've got Miami

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Speaker 1: beating Georgia Tech. But it doesn't have to go that way.

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Speaker 1: Georgia Tech could sit there and beat Miami and at

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Speaker 1: that point Georgia Tech is going to be in the playoff.

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Speaker 1: Miami is still going to be in the playoff. It's

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Speaker 1: the same thing that happened in the ACC last year

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Speaker 1: when you had Clemson end up winning the thing. So

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Speaker 1: you had two ACC teams in and that knocked somebody

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Speaker 1: out of a spot. Well, that could happen here. It

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Speaker 1: could also happen in the Big twelve. What if Utah

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Speaker 1: is the sixteen seed, but they go in the playoff

347
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Speaker 1: or in the conference title game and beat Texas Tech.

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Speaker 1: Texas Tech still going to be in the thing. It's

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Speaker 1: just that Utah is going to be in there as well.

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Speaker 1: And Heaven help everybody, if both of those things were

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Speaker 1: to happen, that's how you knock some of those at

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Speaker 1: larges out of the field. I know that, I know

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Speaker 1: that sounds fun, But from a media standpoint, like from

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Speaker 1: a media rights network standpoint, that's doomsday for those people.

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Speaker 1: Dooms day. I don't have a media rights deal. I'm

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Speaker 1: not broadcasting any of the playoff games on our YouTube channel.

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Speaker 1: I'm good. I'm fine with whatever come what may. But

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Speaker 1: the punishment for the conference championship game losers is the

359
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Speaker 1: other thing to keep an eye on. So here's a scenario.

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Speaker 1: As I'm about to give you my bracket, but here's

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Speaker 1: a scenario I just want you to think about. We're

362
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Speaker 1: still a ways away. It could be a moot point.

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Speaker 1: Let's just say Notre Dames sitting there at the ten

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Speaker 1: seed going into conference championship Saturday. Notre Dame's done, They're

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Speaker 1: season's done, so they're not playing in the conference title game.

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Speaker 1: Let's say Georgia Tech's number nine. Kind of similar to

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Speaker 1: what I was dealing with last year. Let's say Georgia

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Speaker 1: Tech sitting there, number nine, Georgia Tech loses to Miami.

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Speaker 1: Is Georgia Tech falling behind Notre Dame? Let's say they

370
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Speaker 1: fall out entirely. Is the committee willing to punish someone

371
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Speaker 1: for the audacity of earning their way into their conference

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Speaker 1: title game and playing in it, which Notre Dame doesn't do.

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Speaker 1: It's just it didn't happen last year. SMU didn't get

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Speaker 1: dropped out last year. That's one year. So the committee

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Speaker 1: sitting there telling you, and we're going to emphasize strength

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Speaker 1: of schedule. Remember we got that new criteria allegedly that

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Speaker 1: we're going to be going by, So it's going to

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Speaker 1: really emphasize strength of schedule and where we've got this

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Speaker 1: value monetarily that's baked into these conference title games. We

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Speaker 1: cannot afford to render them irrelevant. Therefore, we can't be

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Speaker 1: punishing people when they make their conference title game. You

382
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Speaker 1: can't do that. That's an optics nightmare. Ethically, it's a nightmare.

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Speaker 1: Value wise, it's a nightmare. So just keep that in mind.

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Speaker 1: All right, here is my updated bracket. I am so scared.

385
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Speaker 1: So here's what it would look like. The numbers actually

386
00:20:07,160 --> 00:20:09,160
Speaker 1: kind of should be inverted because I believe in home

387
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Speaker 1: team on bottom. So we would have Georgia go to

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Speaker 1: Oxford in round one, Georgia versus Old Miss. We'd have

389
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Speaker 1: South Florida going to Indiana in round one. We would

390
00:20:19,480 --> 00:20:22,480
Speaker 1: have Nebraska on the road at Texas A and M.

391
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Speaker 1: And Notre Dame in Eugene against Oregon. Here is how

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Speaker 1: I have those games shaking out. Give me Georgia over

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Speaker 1: Ole Miss, give me Indiana over South Florida. Give me

394
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Speaker 1: Texas A and M beating Nebraska. It was a fun ride.

395
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Speaker 1: It was a very fun ride. And give me organ

396
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Speaker 1: over Notre Dame. Although there is nothing that shocks me.

397
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Speaker 1: If Marcus Freeman a Notre Dame get in the playoffs,

398
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Speaker 1: I really value having been there last year, and there

399
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Speaker 1: is that aura that had existed about autsin stadium, but

400
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Speaker 1: it's deemed a little bit right now because of what

401
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Speaker 1: Indiana just went in there and did. So I don't

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Speaker 1: necessarily think Notre Dame would be rattled going on the

403
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Speaker 1: road to Audsin. Save that. Use it as a SoundBite

404
00:21:07,920 --> 00:21:11,760
Speaker 1: if you need to. Three months from now, Mario Christobaul

405
00:21:11,840 --> 00:21:15,600
Speaker 1: versus Dan Landing in the second round of the playoffs, Buddy,

406
00:21:15,640 --> 00:21:18,879
Speaker 1: that is that is popcorn. That is cinema. If you

407
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Speaker 1: just if you just think it through for a second,

408
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Speaker 1: just an unbelievable matchup there. I'm going to take in

409
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Speaker 1: the following order, Ohio State over Georgia. I'm going to

410
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Speaker 1: take Alabama over Indiana. That's de bor facing a team

411
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Speaker 1: I used to coach in Indiana. I'm taking Oregon over Miami.

412
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Speaker 1: And I am taking Texas A and M over Texas Tech.

413
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Speaker 1: Don't overlook that match up there in the second round,

414
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Speaker 1: Texas Tech versus Texas A and M. How about the

415
00:21:47,600 --> 00:21:50,400
Speaker 1: fact that we got two Texas teams in the bracket here,

416
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Speaker 1: neither of them have that longhorn logo. There's a little

417
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Speaker 1: bit of an upset if you predicted that in July.

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Speaker 1: All right, our semi finals are set. It's two national

419
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Speaker 1: championships basically, so Ohio State versus Bama, Oregon versus Texas

420
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Speaker 1: A and M. This got easy for me because my

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Speaker 1: national championship matchup preseason is still in play. So I'll

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Speaker 1: take Alabama versus organ in the national championship game. My

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00:22:16,119 --> 00:22:18,760
Speaker 1: national champion is still very much in play. So give

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Speaker 1: me Alabama to win the national championship. So if I

425
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Speaker 1: can just get the bracket to fall that way, if

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Speaker 1: Dan Lanning can get Organs act together and Alabama can

427
00:22:27,200 --> 00:22:29,720
Speaker 1: continue to walk this tight rope, both of them stay

428
00:22:29,760 --> 00:22:32,879
Speaker 1: relatively healthy. Once I get in the playoff, it's going

429
00:22:32,920 --> 00:22:34,800
Speaker 1: to be a tall order to beat Ohio State. It's

430
00:22:34,800 --> 00:22:36,080
Speaker 1: going to be a tall order to beat A and

431
00:22:36,200 --> 00:22:38,800
Speaker 1: M because if both of those teams have gotten that far,

432
00:22:39,119 --> 00:22:41,720
Speaker 1: they're clicking and those are really good talent rosters. But

433
00:22:41,760 --> 00:22:44,280
Speaker 1: I'm not coming off my preseason predictions unless I absolutely

434
00:22:44,320 --> 00:22:47,800
Speaker 1: have to. Again, ethics, we teach it at Payt State.

435
00:22:48,480 --> 00:22:51,919
Speaker 1: So I started with Alabama and Oregon. I'm sticking with

436
00:22:52,000 --> 00:22:55,800
Speaker 1: Alabama and Oregon. And if it doesn't come true, it's

437
00:22:55,880 --> 00:22:58,560
Speaker 1: caused kids, coaches or officials screwed up. It's not cause

438
00:22:58,560 --> 00:23:01,200
Speaker 1: a meet, It's not my fault. Quick trip could fuel

439
00:23:01,240 --> 00:23:02,840
Speaker 1: you if you wanted to go watch either team play

440
00:23:02,840 --> 00:23:07,000
Speaker 1: this weekend. Quick trip fuels the falldon't lie Tour. Quick

441
00:23:07,040 --> 00:23:09,480
Speaker 1: trip fuels us every day of our lives really cold

442
00:23:09,480 --> 00:23:13,360
Speaker 1: brew on tap, gasoline, trail mix, pizza, whatever you need,

443
00:23:13,440 --> 00:23:18,119
Speaker 1: protein shakes. So the Faldn't lie shirt right there by

444
00:23:18,119 --> 00:23:20,159
Speaker 1: the way is available in the Peate State store. We

445
00:23:20,280 --> 00:23:23,399
Speaker 1: updated every week like we're going to Nashville, which we're

446
00:23:23,440 --> 00:23:26,080
Speaker 1: already in the city of but we're going Saturday. The

447
00:23:26,160 --> 00:23:28,240
Speaker 1: Nashville shirt is available there in the Peate State Store.

448
00:23:28,240 --> 00:23:31,639
Speaker 1: Paytstatemterial dot com. We appreciate quick trip though fueling the

449
00:23:31,680 --> 00:23:33,960
Speaker 1: Faulldont Lie Tour. This is the least amount of gas

450
00:23:33,960 --> 00:23:36,719
Speaker 1: that we'll ever need this Saturday. But in the interest

451
00:23:36,800 --> 00:23:39,600
Speaker 1: of honoring quick Trip, our partner, I will not walk

452
00:23:39,600 --> 00:23:43,159
Speaker 1: to this game. I will drive to this game. Crank it,

453
00:23:43,400 --> 00:23:46,200
Speaker 1: put it in drive, put it in part. Two minutes later,

454
00:23:46,520 --> 00:23:49,679
Speaker 1: we will drive to the game, just out of a

455
00:23:49,720 --> 00:23:57,280
Speaker 1: solidarity move with quick Trip. All right, let's continue. We

456
00:23:57,400 --> 00:23:59,880
Speaker 1: got games to predict. That's what we do around here.

457
00:24:02,280 --> 00:24:06,359
Speaker 1: What did I, Uh, this is a bad thing, but

458
00:24:06,440 --> 00:24:09,280
Speaker 1: I'm gonna tell you what just happened. Okay, So normally,

459
00:24:10,200 --> 00:24:11,760
Speaker 1: if you look at the live chat, now you know

460
00:24:11,800 --> 00:24:15,840
Speaker 1: why I'm laughing. Normally, I have a pre typed message

461
00:24:16,200 --> 00:24:18,480
Speaker 1: that I copy and paste into the live chat a

462
00:24:18,520 --> 00:24:22,440
Speaker 1: few times per show. Normally it says, you know, subscribe

463
00:24:22,440 --> 00:24:26,000
Speaker 1: to the channel like the video, thanks for watching. Just

464
00:24:26,160 --> 00:24:29,080
Speaker 1: before we went on air, some guy was arguing with

465
00:24:29,119 --> 00:24:31,640
Speaker 1: me on Twitter about how Indiana may not be good

466
00:24:32,640 --> 00:24:35,200
Speaker 1: because maybe they beat Oregon, but Organ's not that good

467
00:24:35,240 --> 00:24:39,200
Speaker 1: and they're being falsely inflated. I said, that's not all

468
00:24:39,240 --> 00:24:44,600
Speaker 1: Indiana's done. I said, they also disemboweled Illinois on free TV.

469
00:24:44,840 --> 00:24:46,639
Speaker 1: That's what I said, But I had to check and

470
00:24:46,640 --> 00:24:49,840
Speaker 1: see if I was spelling disemboweled right. So I copied

471
00:24:49,880 --> 00:24:52,880
Speaker 1: and pasted disemboweled, and I put it into Google really

472
00:24:52,960 --> 00:24:55,400
Speaker 1: quickly to make sure I was spelling it right. Then

473
00:24:55,440 --> 00:24:59,359
Speaker 1: the show started and I never unpasted it, or I

474
00:24:59,400 --> 00:25:02,959
Speaker 1: never uncopy. I never put my normal chat message in copy,

475
00:25:03,359 --> 00:25:05,840
Speaker 1: so I just went copy paste out of muscle memory

476
00:25:05,880 --> 00:25:08,960
Speaker 1: habit here and I wrote disemboweled in the live chat.

477
00:25:09,600 --> 00:25:11,800
Speaker 1: So if you're wondering why I wrote disemboweled in the

478
00:25:11,800 --> 00:25:15,840
Speaker 1: live chat. That's why. All right, Jesse, you got moderator

479
00:25:15,880 --> 00:25:18,240
Speaker 1: privileges in there. Tell them to like and subscribe, please,

480
00:25:18,800 --> 00:25:23,560
Speaker 1: Ole Miss at Georgia Saturday, three thirty Eastern kickoff on ABC.

481
00:25:24,280 --> 00:25:27,920
Speaker 1: This is the moment last year in this game in Oxford, Mississippi,

482
00:25:27,920 --> 00:25:31,399
Speaker 1: where I thought the Georgia halo sort of started to

483
00:25:31,480 --> 00:25:34,439
Speaker 1: fade a little bit. Maybe it got dented because Georgia

484
00:25:34,440 --> 00:25:37,240
Speaker 1: went on to win the SEC Championship. They went onto

485
00:25:37,280 --> 00:25:40,480
Speaker 1: the playoff and it was crazy. It was miraculous because

486
00:25:40,520 --> 00:25:43,080
Speaker 1: it was far from a perfect team, but they looked

487
00:25:43,119 --> 00:25:44,840
Speaker 1: vulnerable in this game last year. I think it was

488
00:25:44,840 --> 00:25:47,960
Speaker 1: a twenty eight to ten final. Ole Miss outgained them

489
00:25:48,000 --> 00:25:50,120
Speaker 1: by like one hundred and fifty or something like that.

490
00:25:50,400 --> 00:25:53,280
Speaker 1: Ole Miss out rushed Georgia one hundred and thirty four

491
00:25:53,320 --> 00:25:55,439
Speaker 1: to fifty nine in this game. It looked like they

492
00:25:55,480 --> 00:25:59,479
Speaker 1: were terminal flaws with Georgia. So all week, if you've

493
00:25:59,520 --> 00:26:03,440
Speaker 1: been listening Kirby Smart, he's been stressing home field. We

494
00:26:03,480 --> 00:26:05,560
Speaker 1: need this to be the best home field advantage we've

495
00:26:05,600 --> 00:26:08,080
Speaker 1: ever had. You may think to yourself, oh, they probably

496
00:26:08,119 --> 00:26:11,560
Speaker 1: got a lot of recruits in town. He's just saying that.

497
00:26:11,760 --> 00:26:14,160
Speaker 1: You know, they got a big TV game, They want

498
00:26:14,160 --> 00:26:17,800
Speaker 1: a really good spectacle for the crowd. Yeah, they want

499
00:26:17,840 --> 00:26:20,159
Speaker 1: all that. Yeah, all those things are true. Here's what

500
00:26:20,200 --> 00:26:23,399
Speaker 1: else you need to know. George has been really bad

501
00:26:23,440 --> 00:26:26,800
Speaker 1: in first halves. They have gotten off to poor starts defensively.

502
00:26:27,440 --> 00:26:30,400
Speaker 1: They have therefore let themselves get put in a hole.

503
00:26:30,720 --> 00:26:32,920
Speaker 1: They were able to climb out of it against Tennessee,

504
00:26:33,240 --> 00:26:36,200
Speaker 1: they were not able to climb out of it against Alabama.

505
00:26:36,400 --> 00:26:39,240
Speaker 1: They got put in and again last week by Auburn,

506
00:26:39,320 --> 00:26:41,680
Speaker 1: and somehow, some way got out of it. But it's

507
00:26:41,680 --> 00:26:45,080
Speaker 1: a trend you don't want to continue. Ole Miss is

508
00:26:45,200 --> 00:26:48,800
Speaker 1: number six in first half passing in the country. Georgia

509
00:26:48,880 --> 00:26:53,760
Speaker 1: defensively first half numbers here eighty fifth defensively pass yards

510
00:26:54,080 --> 00:26:56,000
Speaker 1: per first half. I don't think that's a stat we've

511
00:26:56,000 --> 00:26:58,840
Speaker 1: ever talked about. They are one hundred and thirtieth are

512
00:26:58,880 --> 00:27:03,199
Speaker 1: the Georgia Bulldogs on defense at completion percentage allowed in

513
00:27:03,240 --> 00:27:07,240
Speaker 1: the first half. So when you listen to coach Smart

514
00:27:07,280 --> 00:27:10,040
Speaker 1: there talk about how imperative it is you get their

515
00:27:10,119 --> 00:27:13,440
Speaker 1: show up early, scream as loud as you possibly can early.

516
00:27:13,480 --> 00:27:15,960
Speaker 1: It's because he understands if old Miss grabs a lead

517
00:27:16,040 --> 00:27:18,399
Speaker 1: on him, it could be a long afternoon there between

518
00:27:18,440 --> 00:27:21,480
Speaker 1: the hedges. Ole Miss has only been on the road

519
00:27:21,520 --> 00:27:24,280
Speaker 1: one other time this year, though, and that was against Kentucky.

520
00:27:25,640 --> 00:27:30,240
Speaker 1: Notably Lane failed to cover. Notably Mark Stoops robbed us

521
00:27:30,280 --> 00:27:32,960
Speaker 1: that day. But my point is it was a competitive game.

522
00:27:33,000 --> 00:27:35,399
Speaker 1: They didn't pull away. It was a weird looking point spread.

523
00:27:35,440 --> 00:27:36,919
Speaker 1: People kind of had to see it to believe it,

524
00:27:37,240 --> 00:27:41,080
Speaker 1: and they did so last week, they're coming out of

525
00:27:41,080 --> 00:27:44,119
Speaker 1: a bye. They got inexplicably pushed to the limit against

526
00:27:44,160 --> 00:27:47,840
Speaker 1: Washington State, and fairly people are looking at saying are

527
00:27:47,880 --> 00:27:51,359
Speaker 1: they hollow or are they legit? There's a world where

528
00:27:51,640 --> 00:27:55,240
Speaker 1: that Washington State outcome is a red herring, and then

529
00:27:55,240 --> 00:27:57,840
Speaker 1: they go get blasted by Georgia and everyone says, oh,

530
00:27:57,880 --> 00:27:59,560
Speaker 1: in retrospect, we should have seen it come in. There

531
00:27:59,600 --> 00:28:01,960
Speaker 1: is another scenario that you know, good and will exists

532
00:28:02,240 --> 00:28:05,000
Speaker 1: where they didn't pay two bits of attention to Washington

533
00:28:05,040 --> 00:28:07,040
Speaker 1: State and they've been prepping for Georgia for the better

534
00:28:07,080 --> 00:28:10,160
Speaker 1: part of a month and it shows Saturday. I think

535
00:28:10,200 --> 00:28:13,280
Speaker 1: you'll know early on which is which. So last week

536
00:28:15,000 --> 00:28:18,720
Speaker 1: Georgia played Auburn and I asked myself, what kind of

537
00:28:18,760 --> 00:28:20,720
Speaker 1: clues did that game leave? It was a weird game.

538
00:28:20,840 --> 00:28:23,720
Speaker 1: Georgia was down ten to zero, could have been seventeen

539
00:28:23,760 --> 00:28:25,959
Speaker 1: to nothing, ended up being ten to three at the half.

540
00:28:26,160 --> 00:28:29,280
Speaker 1: But Jackson Arnold was fourteen of nineteen one hundred and

541
00:28:29,280 --> 00:28:32,439
Speaker 1: seven yards, but he ran it fifty one yards in

542
00:28:32,480 --> 00:28:35,600
Speaker 1: the first half. Those are first half numbers. And they

543
00:28:35,640 --> 00:28:38,120
Speaker 1: controlled the clock. I mean Georgia at the two minute

544
00:28:38,120 --> 00:28:41,800
Speaker 1: warning portion. Inside the two minute warning portion. Actually the

545
00:28:41,840 --> 00:28:45,080
Speaker 1: first half had run twelve plays, so the game control

546
00:28:45,120 --> 00:28:48,600
Speaker 1: got away from him. Fortunately Auburn didn't pull away, and

547
00:28:48,840 --> 00:28:51,440
Speaker 1: they sat there and complained about officiating in the second

548
00:28:51,440 --> 00:28:54,160
Speaker 1: half instead of playing football, and Georgia took it from him.

549
00:28:55,120 --> 00:28:58,120
Speaker 1: Ole Mess has that quarterback run as well. That's an

550
00:28:58,160 --> 00:29:00,600
Speaker 1: element with Trinidad Chambliss that you come here with. The

551
00:29:00,600 --> 00:29:04,360
Speaker 1: difference is unlike Auburn, Ole Miss has the explosive play

552
00:29:04,360 --> 00:29:08,080
Speaker 1: capability through the air and on the ground. Auburn one

553
00:29:08,120 --> 00:29:11,000
Speaker 1: hundred and twenty seventh in that department, Ole Miss is sixth.

554
00:29:12,040 --> 00:29:14,720
Speaker 1: So what if you have to play catch up here

555
00:29:15,040 --> 00:29:19,880
Speaker 1: against Old Miss, you sort of invalidate what should be

556
00:29:19,960 --> 00:29:24,040
Speaker 1: a key edge for you because ole Miss defensively, they

557
00:29:24,040 --> 00:29:27,000
Speaker 1: are ninety eighth against the run. You should be able

558
00:29:27,000 --> 00:29:29,680
Speaker 1: to run the ball on Old Miss, but that's only

559
00:29:29,680 --> 00:29:32,680
Speaker 1: if you're not down fourteen or seventeen points, because if

560
00:29:32,680 --> 00:29:35,200
Speaker 1: you've got to throw the ball to beat them to

561
00:29:35,280 --> 00:29:37,320
Speaker 1: catch up. In other words, if Georgia just puts themselves

562
00:29:37,360 --> 00:29:40,040
Speaker 1: in that position. Again, this is a top thirty pass

563
00:29:40,120 --> 00:29:46,280
Speaker 1: defense and so again. First quarter, first half game script

564
00:29:46,320 --> 00:29:48,880
Speaker 1: as imperative here for Georgia as it will be all year.

565
00:29:48,920 --> 00:29:51,720
Speaker 1: The Georgia offense I think should be able to stay

566
00:29:51,720 --> 00:29:54,760
Speaker 1: on schedule here. They don't even have to start ultra fast,

567
00:29:54,920 --> 00:29:57,440
Speaker 1: they just have to start efficiently, because I think they

568
00:29:57,480 --> 00:30:00,680
Speaker 1: found something in the second half against Auburn. Stockton also

569
00:30:00,760 --> 00:30:05,280
Speaker 1: adds the running ability, obviously for Georgia. The run game

570
00:30:05,800 --> 00:30:08,360
Speaker 1: for Georgia much improved this year. It's not top ten.

571
00:30:08,480 --> 00:30:10,440
Speaker 1: I didn't need it to be. I just needed it

572
00:30:10,480 --> 00:30:13,080
Speaker 1: to be serviceable. It has been a serviceable ground game.

573
00:30:13,520 --> 00:30:16,760
Speaker 1: Ole Miss run defense can be had if you're not

574
00:30:16,920 --> 00:30:21,440
Speaker 1: having to come from behind. They can be had here. Ultimately,

575
00:30:21,640 --> 00:30:24,000
Speaker 1: what this could come down to is, I mean there's

576
00:30:24,040 --> 00:30:26,520
Speaker 1: a spot here where when you're facing a run defense

577
00:30:26,560 --> 00:30:29,200
Speaker 1: like that, I don't care if you're not vintage Georgia.

578
00:30:29,200 --> 00:30:31,200
Speaker 1: I don't care if Todd Gurley's not on the field.

579
00:30:31,440 --> 00:30:34,360
Speaker 1: I don't care if multiple future first round offensive linemen

580
00:30:35,000 --> 00:30:38,240
Speaker 1: are spread out left right there. At some point you

581
00:30:38,440 --> 00:30:41,400
Speaker 1: just got to remember, man, we're Georgia. Every now and then,

582
00:30:41,480 --> 00:30:44,040
Speaker 1: Kirby pulls that out. He did it against Texas last year.

583
00:30:44,480 --> 00:30:47,000
Speaker 1: I just call it a We're Georgia game where every

584
00:30:47,000 --> 00:30:49,800
Speaker 1: now and then you just have to reassert yourself. Maybe

585
00:30:49,840 --> 00:30:53,280
Speaker 1: not reassert dominance, although that's the goal, but maybe this

586
00:30:53,360 --> 00:30:57,240
Speaker 1: isn't a dominant Georgia team, but maybe situationally, there are

587
00:30:57,280 --> 00:30:59,160
Speaker 1: just moments where you look and there's a key down

588
00:30:59,200 --> 00:31:03,160
Speaker 1: and you say, that's Georgia, Harris, that's Kirby Smart, that's

589
00:31:03,160 --> 00:31:05,280
Speaker 1: Georgia for you. I think the game will be decided

590
00:31:05,320 --> 00:31:07,560
Speaker 1: in the red zone. Ole miss has settled for three

591
00:31:07,600 --> 00:31:09,680
Speaker 1: a little bit too much from my liking. So far

592
00:31:09,720 --> 00:31:13,120
Speaker 1: this year, they're in the sixties in red zone touchdown percentage.

593
00:31:13,160 --> 00:31:17,080
Speaker 1: Georgia has a top five red zone defense. So that's

594
00:31:17,320 --> 00:31:19,200
Speaker 1: one of those little stack CATEGORIESF you're gonna pull an

595
00:31:19,240 --> 00:31:21,200
Speaker 1: upset like this on the road, you need to invert

596
00:31:21,600 --> 00:31:24,000
Speaker 1: and the other thing that I think about is this

597
00:31:24,080 --> 00:31:28,240
Speaker 1: is Trinidad Chambliss's first road start in the SEC. Correct

598
00:31:28,240 --> 00:31:29,720
Speaker 1: me if I'm wrong, Jesse. He wasn't the one who

599
00:31:29,720 --> 00:31:32,400
Speaker 1: started that Kentucky game, and so this is it, Like,

600
00:31:32,440 --> 00:31:34,880
Speaker 1: this is a big ask for a guy going on

601
00:31:34,920 --> 00:31:37,280
Speaker 1: the road. It's not a vintage Georgia defense. They don't

602
00:31:37,320 --> 00:31:40,400
Speaker 1: get pressure like they normally do. So maybe he's given time,

603
00:31:40,440 --> 00:31:44,360
Speaker 1: maybe he gets confidence early. As you can tell by

604
00:31:44,400 --> 00:31:48,640
Speaker 1: the inflection points at various parts of this preview. I

605
00:31:48,760 --> 00:31:51,160
Speaker 1: have mixed feelings about this game. Let's take a look

606
00:31:51,160 --> 00:31:53,560
Speaker 1: at what the model thinks. Fan Duels got Georgia minus

607
00:31:53,600 --> 00:31:55,760
Speaker 1: seven and a half right now, we're a little bit

608
00:31:55,760 --> 00:31:58,080
Speaker 1: shorter than that model likes Old Miss a little bit more.

609
00:31:58,080 --> 00:32:00,880
Speaker 1: We got Georgia minus five, and I don't have a

610
00:32:00,920 --> 00:32:04,240
Speaker 1: strong feel on it. It's a desperation spot for Georgia.

611
00:32:04,560 --> 00:32:07,160
Speaker 1: It's a classic Ole Miss wants to win, Georgia needs

612
00:32:07,160 --> 00:32:09,880
Speaker 1: to win type of moment, same as Red River shoot

613
00:32:09,880 --> 00:32:13,640
Speaker 1: out last week. Doesn't always guarantee an outcome. But I

614
00:32:14,280 --> 00:32:16,920
Speaker 1: just even though I went to this well and lost

615
00:32:16,960 --> 00:32:19,840
Speaker 1: early on in the year with the Alabama result in Athens,

616
00:32:20,240 --> 00:32:22,520
Speaker 1: I always default to trust in Kirby Smart in these

617
00:32:22,520 --> 00:32:25,400
Speaker 1: spots at home, and I will take Georgia to win.

618
00:32:26,080 --> 00:32:28,080
Speaker 1: But I don't know if this is a pull away

619
00:32:28,160 --> 00:32:30,600
Speaker 1: game for them. I really don't. I think there's enough

620
00:32:30,600 --> 00:32:33,240
Speaker 1: that Old Miss has that that number right there, seven

621
00:32:33,280 --> 00:32:35,440
Speaker 1: and a half is a little bit too much for me.

622
00:32:35,640 --> 00:32:38,760
Speaker 1: I'm not betting the game, so I'm riding the fence

623
00:32:38,760 --> 00:32:40,560
Speaker 1: on this one. I'm taking Georgia to win. I'm taking

624
00:32:40,560 --> 00:32:44,960
Speaker 1: Old Miss plus anything over seven, which FanDuel is giving me.

625
00:32:45,040 --> 00:32:50,160
Speaker 1: Right now, let's move on. What a game? What a

626
00:32:50,280 --> 00:32:54,360
Speaker 1: game setting up in South Bend, Indiana this Saturday night,

627
00:32:54,560 --> 00:32:58,880
Speaker 1: USC Notre Dame seven thirty Eastern kick on NBC. How

628
00:32:58,880 --> 00:33:01,959
Speaker 1: big is this friend of the program, Kay Adams attending

629
00:33:02,000 --> 00:33:05,800
Speaker 1: the game? College football? Kay? How about that college football

630
00:33:05,800 --> 00:33:09,360
Speaker 1: playoff fate? That's what's on the line for Notre Dame here.

631
00:33:10,160 --> 00:33:12,240
Speaker 1: There is some debate out there that a two loss

632
00:33:12,240 --> 00:33:14,560
Speaker 1: Notre Dame is not getting in. There is no debate

633
00:33:14,560 --> 00:33:17,720
Speaker 1: about three loss Notre Dame. They are Pop Tart Bowl bound.

634
00:33:17,880 --> 00:33:22,320
Speaker 1: All due respect Team Blueberry. It was a statement moment

635
00:33:22,400 --> 00:33:25,680
Speaker 1: last week for some people when USC did what they

636
00:33:25,680 --> 00:33:28,120
Speaker 1: did to Michigan. Not me, I just thought it was

637
00:33:28,160 --> 00:33:31,360
Speaker 1: a very impressive win. As I said Sunday, as I'll

638
00:33:31,360 --> 00:33:33,600
Speaker 1: say again here on Tuesday night, this is where the

639
00:33:33,640 --> 00:33:37,120
Speaker 1: statement would be made. You don't make statements. In other words,

640
00:33:37,280 --> 00:33:40,000
Speaker 1: I view a statement as fundamentally changing what I think

641
00:33:40,040 --> 00:33:42,760
Speaker 1: about you. You don't make a statement as a favorite

642
00:33:42,760 --> 00:33:46,280
Speaker 1: in the coliseum. You make a statement by going on

643
00:33:46,280 --> 00:33:48,280
Speaker 1: the road. You are a nine and a half point

644
00:33:48,320 --> 00:33:51,000
Speaker 1: dog and you're facing the team that you know good

645
00:33:51,000 --> 00:33:53,640
Speaker 1: and well believes they can physically just lean on you

646
00:33:53,880 --> 00:33:57,560
Speaker 1: because until further notice, you're still USC, or, as Memaw

647
00:33:57,600 --> 00:33:59,680
Speaker 1: would say, compared to the Notre Dames of the world,

648
00:34:00,000 --> 00:34:02,080
Speaker 1: little two light in the bridges to pull this off.

649
00:34:03,080 --> 00:34:05,880
Speaker 1: If you prove that wrong, if you turn that narrative

650
00:34:05,880 --> 00:34:09,799
Speaker 1: on it's ear, that is a statement. The number there,

651
00:34:10,000 --> 00:34:12,600
Speaker 1: nine and a half makes it very clear the market

652
00:34:12,680 --> 00:34:14,920
Speaker 1: still has to see it to believe it. With USC,

653
00:34:15,120 --> 00:34:19,319
Speaker 1: the market also still fully believes in Notre Dame. So

654
00:34:19,400 --> 00:34:22,680
Speaker 1: what do we think about this game? Well, on the surface,

655
00:34:23,880 --> 00:34:27,799
Speaker 1: on paper, notably what the game is not played on.

656
00:34:27,880 --> 00:34:31,560
Speaker 1: But on paper, because that's all we have on Tuesday,

657
00:34:32,000 --> 00:34:33,680
Speaker 1: this looks like one of those games where there is

658
00:34:33,680 --> 00:34:35,880
Speaker 1: no total high enough the total is sixty one and

659
00:34:35,880 --> 00:34:39,120
Speaker 1: a half right now over under that's the total. So

660
00:34:39,200 --> 00:34:42,759
Speaker 1: if you just look on paper, USC's got the number

661
00:34:42,760 --> 00:34:45,759
Speaker 1: two passing offense in the country, Notre Dame in the

662
00:34:45,760 --> 00:34:48,640
Speaker 1: one hundreds in pass defense. Hold on, I'll be yelling.

663
00:34:48,960 --> 00:34:50,759
Speaker 1: There's no need to yell at a screen. I'm going

664
00:34:50,840 --> 00:34:52,440
Speaker 1: to get to it. I'm going to add all the

665
00:34:52,480 --> 00:34:55,759
Speaker 1: conditions in the caveats. In just a second, I continue.

666
00:34:55,840 --> 00:34:59,759
Speaker 1: Notre Dame number nineteen passing offense against a USC pass

667
00:34:59,760 --> 00:35:02,480
Speaker 1: def that's also in the one hundreds. So you may

668
00:35:02,520 --> 00:35:06,359
Speaker 1: think to yourself, oh, fireworks, fireworks, And we have seen

669
00:35:06,400 --> 00:35:09,560
Speaker 1: a game like that already this year. We've already seen

670
00:35:09,680 --> 00:35:13,680
Speaker 1: a game played in Notre Dame Stadium where the losing

671
00:35:13,719 --> 00:35:16,319
Speaker 1: team had forty points. That A and M game was

672
00:35:16,360 --> 00:35:19,440
Speaker 1: forty one to forty. So we have seen some points

673
00:35:19,480 --> 00:35:24,480
Speaker 1: be scored there. Now the follow up is you need

674
00:35:24,520 --> 00:35:27,719
Speaker 1: to know that, Yeah, they gave up forty one that night.

675
00:35:29,440 --> 00:35:32,080
Speaker 1: They've given up twenty seven their last three games at

676
00:35:32,160 --> 00:35:37,399
Speaker 1: Arkansas Boise, NC State. There is a working theory out there.

677
00:35:37,680 --> 00:35:40,680
Speaker 1: Maybe there have been some changes behind the curtain there defensively,

678
00:35:41,480 --> 00:35:44,520
Speaker 1: Maybe that coaching staff gets in that meeting room on Sunday.

679
00:35:44,520 --> 00:35:46,279
Speaker 1: It says, yeah, we're not doing this anymore, so we're

680
00:35:46,280 --> 00:35:49,400
Speaker 1: going to change this, this and this. That's one working theory.

681
00:35:49,440 --> 00:35:52,480
Speaker 1: Another working theory is, yeah, it was Arkansas and it

682
00:35:52,560 --> 00:35:55,200
Speaker 1: was Boise and it was in C State, not all

683
00:35:55,200 --> 00:35:57,920
Speaker 1: that difficult to flex defensively against them. I think the

684
00:35:57,960 --> 00:36:00,799
Speaker 1: truth is probably somewhere in between, but we'll find out.

685
00:36:00,920 --> 00:36:02,520
Speaker 1: A lot is going to be placed on the shoulders

686
00:36:02,560 --> 00:36:06,759
Speaker 1: of Jade Mayava. That's the USC quarterback. It's a guy

687
00:36:06,800 --> 00:36:09,840
Speaker 1: I'm extremely high on. They're high on him. They should be.

688
00:36:10,520 --> 00:36:14,000
Speaker 1: USC has down multiple tailbacks in this game, so he's

689
00:36:14,040 --> 00:36:15,920
Speaker 1: got to get it done. Notre Dame's good against the

690
00:36:16,000 --> 00:36:19,160
Speaker 1: run anyway, defensively, so it's going to have to happen

691
00:36:19,160 --> 00:36:21,799
Speaker 1: through the air. USC had success through the air in

692
00:36:21,840 --> 00:36:25,759
Speaker 1: this game last year, but remember that came with turnovers.

693
00:36:26,360 --> 00:36:29,440
Speaker 1: They threw two pick six's in this game. Notre Dame,

694
00:36:29,480 --> 00:36:32,160
Speaker 1: by the way, has forced nine turnovers in the last

695
00:36:32,160 --> 00:36:35,000
Speaker 1: three games, so they've been taking the ball away. US.

696
00:36:35,040 --> 00:36:37,319
Speaker 1: He gave the ball away in this game last year,

697
00:36:37,320 --> 00:36:39,560
Speaker 1: and that was in LA. This is in South Bend.

698
00:36:39,760 --> 00:36:45,240
Speaker 1: Leonard Moore number one grade per PFF in man coverage

699
00:36:45,239 --> 00:36:49,359
Speaker 1: at the cornerback position this year against Makay Lemon. If

700
00:36:49,360 --> 00:36:52,640
Speaker 1: you're not able to watch this game on Saturday, don't worry.

701
00:36:53,000 --> 00:36:55,880
Speaker 1: That matchup will probably happen on Sundays for years to

702
00:36:55,920 --> 00:36:58,840
Speaker 1: come as well. I just highly recommend you check it

703
00:36:58,880 --> 00:37:01,160
Speaker 1: out this Saturday. Lemon, by the way, leads all of

704
00:37:01,200 --> 00:37:05,480
Speaker 1: power for in receiving yards per game. So which way

705
00:37:05,480 --> 00:37:09,319
Speaker 1: does that matchup go? Because I believe Mackay Lemon can

706
00:37:09,360 --> 00:37:12,839
Speaker 1: do work against anyone. It's gonna be limited against Leonard Moore,

707
00:37:12,840 --> 00:37:15,520
Speaker 1: but I'm not look he may shut him down. I

708
00:37:15,560 --> 00:37:17,480
Speaker 1: just think it's very, very hard to shut that guy down.

709
00:37:17,560 --> 00:37:20,400
Speaker 1: I think he's the best, along with Jeremi Smith, excuse me,

710
00:37:20,719 --> 00:37:24,640
Speaker 1: the best receivers in the country. And if USC wins

711
00:37:24,719 --> 00:37:27,480
Speaker 1: that thing, then everything else working downstream of that with

712
00:37:27,520 --> 00:37:29,680
Speaker 1: those other pass catchers sort of falls into place because

713
00:37:29,719 --> 00:37:31,880
Speaker 1: elsewhere they're a place to be made against the secondary,

714
00:37:31,920 --> 00:37:33,839
Speaker 1: I believe. So that's one thing to watch. The other

715
00:37:33,880 --> 00:37:37,480
Speaker 1: thing is when we got USC out there defensively, how

716
00:37:37,560 --> 00:37:40,480
Speaker 1: much pressure can they get on CJ. Carr. Believe it

717
00:37:40,560 --> 00:37:42,919
Speaker 1: or not, they're fifth in sacks this year now, their

718
00:37:42,920 --> 00:37:46,640
Speaker 1: overall pressure rates not that great, but they have gotten home.

719
00:37:46,680 --> 00:37:51,560
Speaker 1: When they bring added guys Danton Lynn against Mike Denbrock,

720
00:37:51,680 --> 00:37:55,919
Speaker 1: that's a great coordinator versus coordinator matchup. They will bring

721
00:37:55,960 --> 00:37:59,560
Speaker 1: pressure they know they have to. Now with that opens

722
00:37:59,600 --> 00:38:03,280
Speaker 1: you up to the possibility that you make some mistakes

723
00:38:03,840 --> 00:38:05,640
Speaker 1: or it opens you up to the possibility that you

724
00:38:05,760 --> 00:38:09,080
Speaker 1: forced turnovers. I will just say this. I was on

725
00:38:09,120 --> 00:38:11,800
Speaker 1: the field in Champagne a few weeks ago when USC

726
00:38:11,880 --> 00:38:14,040
Speaker 1: went to Illinois last time. They had to travel really

727
00:38:14,080 --> 00:38:16,960
Speaker 1: and it was not good, not good at all. And

728
00:38:17,080 --> 00:38:20,920
Speaker 1: Luke Altmeyer, known by some in Nashville as Luke Altenheimer,

729
00:38:21,360 --> 00:38:25,319
Speaker 1: threw for over three hundred against USC. Now Michigan didn't.

730
00:38:25,360 --> 00:38:28,239
Speaker 1: But Michigan doesn't really believe in passing this year, so

731
00:38:29,080 --> 00:38:33,719
Speaker 1: they're going to get tested against CJ. Carr and it'd

732
00:38:33,760 --> 00:38:36,359
Speaker 1: be a very big surprise to me if if they

733
00:38:36,560 --> 00:38:39,520
Speaker 1: throttled him down, because I think that Notre Dame passing

734
00:38:39,520 --> 00:38:41,279
Speaker 1: attacks too good as well, So you're gonna have to

735
00:38:41,320 --> 00:38:44,200
Speaker 1: trade points at some point here. I think it all

736
00:38:44,239 --> 00:38:46,200
Speaker 1: comes back to the same thing with USC. Though you

737
00:38:46,280 --> 00:38:50,279
Speaker 1: notice how deep we've gotten in this preview without mentioning this.

738
00:38:50,320 --> 00:38:54,120
Speaker 1: It's none intentionally I haven't mentioned Jeremiah Love, I haven't

739
00:38:54,120 --> 00:38:56,640
Speaker 1: mentioned Price, I haven't mentioned the tailbacks. I haven't mentioned

740
00:38:56,680 --> 00:38:59,640
Speaker 1: the ground game, period, because that's what I wanted to

741
00:38:59,719 --> 00:39:03,600
Speaker 1: end on until further notice. The edge that the Notre

742
00:39:03,640 --> 00:39:06,360
Speaker 1: Dames of the world have on you is they're bigger

743
00:39:06,400 --> 00:39:09,120
Speaker 1: and faster and stronger than you. They're deeper than you,

744
00:39:09,239 --> 00:39:12,160
Speaker 1: they're tougher than you. Just all the stuff that you

745
00:39:12,239 --> 00:39:14,640
Speaker 1: read on the back of the college football serial box.

746
00:39:14,880 --> 00:39:17,480
Speaker 1: That's the edge that Notre Dame has on you. And

747
00:39:17,680 --> 00:39:20,239
Speaker 1: the thing that sucks about that is they're going to

748
00:39:20,280 --> 00:39:23,000
Speaker 1: say it about you until you prove otherwise. That's the statement.

749
00:39:23,600 --> 00:39:25,879
Speaker 1: That's what we're looking to see if USC can do here.

750
00:39:26,480 --> 00:39:28,919
Speaker 1: Let's take a look at what the model thinks. Let's

751
00:39:28,920 --> 00:39:31,799
Speaker 1: take a look at what FanDuel thinks. Fandel right now

752
00:39:31,800 --> 00:39:35,000
Speaker 1: has Notre Dame minus nine and a half, and that

753
00:39:35,120 --> 00:39:37,799
Speaker 1: moved at the early part of this week because we

754
00:39:37,880 --> 00:39:40,080
Speaker 1: agreed with it totally. Early on, we got Notre Dame

755
00:39:40,120 --> 00:39:44,560
Speaker 1: minus eight and a half. With the model. I believe

756
00:39:44,600 --> 00:39:48,440
Speaker 1: in Lincoln Riley, I believe in Danton Lynn. I believe

757
00:39:48,480 --> 00:39:52,160
Speaker 1: it's ultra personal for these guys, and you better get

758
00:39:52,160 --> 00:39:53,680
Speaker 1: this thing figured out, because if this is the last

759
00:39:53,680 --> 00:39:55,680
Speaker 1: time you guys play this rivalry for a while, so

760
00:39:55,760 --> 00:39:58,320
Speaker 1: help me. The Office of the Future Commissioner of College

761
00:39:58,320 --> 00:40:03,000
Speaker 1: Football will not look kindly on it. I hate doing this,

762
00:40:03,640 --> 00:40:05,840
Speaker 1: but I got to go with what I think is

763
00:40:05,920 --> 00:40:09,040
Speaker 1: the right way to go in this. I know it's

764
00:40:09,080 --> 00:40:11,600
Speaker 1: a popular sentiment out there that Notre Dame's rolling now

765
00:40:11,880 --> 00:40:15,520
Speaker 1: and so they're just going to like bury USC. I'm

766
00:40:15,560 --> 00:40:19,920
Speaker 1: not sure that happens, but I've also watched USC get buried.

767
00:40:19,960 --> 00:40:21,799
Speaker 1: Like there are some worlds where that Illinois game wasn't

768
00:40:21,800 --> 00:40:26,360
Speaker 1: even close, and they window dressed it and defensive plays

769
00:40:26,400 --> 00:40:29,200
Speaker 1: and turnovers kind of made it close. So there are

770
00:40:29,200 --> 00:40:31,319
Speaker 1: a lot of two way goes there. I think Notre

771
00:40:31,400 --> 00:40:34,120
Speaker 1: Dame is going to win a game. I will roll

772
00:40:34,160 --> 00:40:36,840
Speaker 1: the dice that USC is able to cover this number.

773
00:40:37,400 --> 00:40:39,799
Speaker 1: So that's another fence ride. I know. I did it

774
00:40:39,840 --> 00:40:42,239
Speaker 1: with Georgia ol Mess I'm doing it here. I think

775
00:40:42,280 --> 00:40:45,640
Speaker 1: both these games are close, though, so it just so

776
00:40:45,680 --> 00:40:48,160
Speaker 1: happens they're being played on the same day. I'm going

777
00:40:48,480 --> 00:40:51,439
Speaker 1: Notre Dame to win and I'm going USC to cover,

778
00:40:52,480 --> 00:40:56,160
Speaker 1: which in the end is just another possible one possession loss.

779
00:40:56,640 --> 00:40:58,719
Speaker 1: That USC looks at and says, oh, we let another

780
00:40:58,719 --> 00:41:01,719
Speaker 1: one get away. You do not have to let this

781
00:41:01,800 --> 00:41:05,080
Speaker 1: opportunity get away, though. The opportunity that I'm speaking of

782
00:41:05,360 --> 00:41:07,560
Speaker 1: is to go to Academy Sports and Outdoors and to

783
00:41:07,600 --> 00:41:09,840
Speaker 1: buy a jacket. If you don't get it from the

784
00:41:09,840 --> 00:41:12,759
Speaker 1: Peyte State Store. Of course, you could go get a

785
00:41:12,960 --> 00:41:16,480
Speaker 1: fishing rod. You could go get a kayak. I hope

786
00:41:16,520 --> 00:41:18,840
Speaker 1: you live in the South South if you're buying that

787
00:41:18,880 --> 00:41:20,680
Speaker 1: this time of year. But you can go get cold

788
00:41:20,680 --> 00:41:23,759
Speaker 1: weather gear, sporting goods, equipment. Obviously big league chewing the

789
00:41:23,800 --> 00:41:25,919
Speaker 1: checkout line. Academy has been with us for a long time.

790
00:41:26,239 --> 00:41:30,800
Speaker 1: We appreciate them. It is October, which means November is

791
00:41:30,840 --> 00:41:33,719
Speaker 1: about to happen, which means December's after that. If we're

792
00:41:33,719 --> 00:41:35,919
Speaker 1: doing the same calendar this year in twenty twenty five,

793
00:41:36,040 --> 00:41:38,319
Speaker 1: which means Christmas is not too far away, it is

794
00:41:38,360 --> 00:41:40,239
Speaker 1: never too early to go ahead and start stocking up.

795
00:41:40,480 --> 00:41:44,760
Speaker 1: You'd be shocked, stunned, amazed at how many things Academy

796
00:41:44,760 --> 00:41:47,800
Speaker 1: Sports and Outdoors has beyond the obvious that you didn't

797
00:41:47,800 --> 00:41:49,560
Speaker 1: know they have. And if you can't get there in person,

798
00:41:49,760 --> 00:42:01,640
Speaker 1: Academy dot Com is a close second. Let's continue prediction.

799
00:42:02,080 --> 00:42:07,160
Speaker 1: Tuesday going swimmingly so far. Tennessee at Alabama. Third Saturday

800
00:42:07,160 --> 00:42:11,680
Speaker 1: in October. On the actual third Saturday in October, Saturday Night,

801
00:42:12,200 --> 00:42:15,360
Speaker 1: seven thirty Eastern, six thirty Local kick on ABC. You know,

802
00:42:15,400 --> 00:42:17,800
Speaker 1: there was a period of time where the SEC schedule

803
00:42:17,840 --> 00:42:20,800
Speaker 1: got jacked up and this thing was being played second Saturday,

804
00:42:20,840 --> 00:42:27,240
Speaker 1: fourth Saturday. Nope, third Saturday in October. Both I believe

805
00:42:27,360 --> 00:42:31,040
Speaker 1: both you I am. I am of the opinion both

806
00:42:31,040 --> 00:42:33,720
Speaker 1: of these teams should wear their home uniform for this game, okay,

807
00:42:33,840 --> 00:42:36,120
Speaker 1: And I can't do anything about that right now. Maybe

808
00:42:36,160 --> 00:42:38,200
Speaker 1: one day I'm commissioner and I can just order this.

809
00:42:38,440 --> 00:42:41,320
Speaker 1: I don't really believe in the power of the pen, Okay.

810
00:42:41,360 --> 00:42:43,560
Speaker 1: I believe that the people should have the final say,

811
00:42:44,160 --> 00:42:47,080
Speaker 1: except with this because I think both fan bases would

812
00:42:47,080 --> 00:42:49,120
Speaker 1: want it. And I can't do anything about this weekend.

813
00:42:49,360 --> 00:42:51,560
Speaker 1: But I really wish we could just see the Crimson

814
00:42:51,600 --> 00:42:55,120
Speaker 1: in the Orange, no matter which venue they play this game. Anyway,

815
00:42:56,000 --> 00:42:59,160
Speaker 1: that's down the road a little ways. As for Saturday,

816
00:42:59,400 --> 00:43:03,200
Speaker 1: keep in mind Alabama goes to Missouri they win the

817
00:43:03,239 --> 00:43:06,400
Speaker 1: other day. Have you listened to a lot of the

818
00:43:06,440 --> 00:43:08,440
Speaker 1: noise that's come out of Tuscaloosa since then. If you

819
00:43:08,520 --> 00:43:12,359
Speaker 1: listened to Ryan Grubb talk and Ty Simpson talk, I

820
00:43:12,400 --> 00:43:17,040
Speaker 1: think they accurately have expressed how much meat they believe

821
00:43:17,160 --> 00:43:19,719
Speaker 1: was left on the bone, how much, specifically in the

822
00:43:19,800 --> 00:43:22,480
Speaker 1: passing game, they could have done in addition to what

823
00:43:22,560 --> 00:43:26,399
Speaker 1: they did, and I believe that. I actually thought one

824
00:43:26,440 --> 00:43:28,759
Speaker 1: of the biggest mismatches that should have existed in that

825
00:43:28,800 --> 00:43:32,440
Speaker 1: game was Bama's wide receiver corps versus Missouri's secondary. They

826
00:43:32,480 --> 00:43:34,799
Speaker 1: made some plays, but it was not a glaring mismatch.

827
00:43:34,920 --> 00:43:37,200
Speaker 1: But you want to talk about a glaring mismatch on paper,

828
00:43:37,520 --> 00:43:41,120
Speaker 1: check out Bama's wide receiver corps versus Tennessee secondary. This

829
00:43:41,200 --> 00:43:43,840
Speaker 1: is the number fifteen passing offense in the country versus

830
00:43:44,160 --> 00:43:47,759
Speaker 1: a pass defense in the one twenties, number eighteen in

831
00:43:47,840 --> 00:43:51,200
Speaker 1: explosive passes versus a defense in the one twenties in

832
00:43:51,280 --> 00:43:56,719
Speaker 1: that category as well. So once again we arrive at

833
00:43:56,760 --> 00:44:00,000
Speaker 1: this strange spot where looks like Bama should be able

834
00:44:00,120 --> 00:44:01,600
Speaker 1: to rip them if I think they got the best

835
00:44:01,680 --> 00:44:03,640
Speaker 1: quarterback in the country, or at least one of them

836
00:44:03,640 --> 00:44:06,040
Speaker 1: in Ty Simpson, which I do. If I think they

837
00:44:06,080 --> 00:44:08,120
Speaker 1: got one of the best receiving cores in the country,

838
00:44:08,160 --> 00:44:11,520
Speaker 1: which I do. There should be a lot of plays

839
00:44:11,560 --> 00:44:15,040
Speaker 1: to be made here. But again, this is not a

840
00:44:15,040 --> 00:44:17,080
Speaker 1: football field in my hands. This is just a piece

841
00:44:17,120 --> 00:44:20,279
Speaker 1: of paper. So what does Tennessee do to win this game?

842
00:44:20,320 --> 00:44:22,759
Speaker 1: Because that makes it sound really lopsided. It makes it

843
00:44:22,800 --> 00:44:25,120
Speaker 1: sound really one side of Bama is about to roll. Well,

844
00:44:25,520 --> 00:44:28,400
Speaker 1: how Tennessee wins this game, to me is instead of

845
00:44:28,400 --> 00:44:30,279
Speaker 1: getting caught up in the storm, you have to kind

846
00:44:30,280 --> 00:44:34,200
Speaker 1: of create the storm yourself. You lead the SEC in sacks,

847
00:44:34,239 --> 00:44:37,760
Speaker 1: do you not? Yes, you do? Stats an info already confirmed.

848
00:44:39,880 --> 00:44:44,200
Speaker 1: I think. Also, there is a world where Alabama's been

849
00:44:44,280 --> 00:44:46,000
Speaker 1: very good at not turning the ball over so far

850
00:44:46,080 --> 00:44:48,359
Speaker 1: this year, And there's a world where you get these

851
00:44:48,400 --> 00:44:50,640
Speaker 1: stats that are out there in your face, and you

852
00:44:50,760 --> 00:44:54,239
Speaker 1: think stats are static. So what is now always will be.

853
00:44:54,560 --> 00:44:56,799
Speaker 1: But if you've watched college football for any length of time,

854
00:44:57,320 --> 00:45:00,000
Speaker 1: anytime there's an upset period much less one of these

855
00:45:00,120 --> 00:45:05,680
Speaker 1: big rivalry game upsets, the nature of those outcomes is

856
00:45:05,719 --> 00:45:09,400
Speaker 1: that you ripped up the stat sheet that Saturday, something

857
00:45:09,520 --> 00:45:12,360
Speaker 1: happened in that game that flies in the face of

858
00:45:12,480 --> 00:45:17,680
Speaker 1: statistical wisdom. That could be one of Tennessee's edges this Saturday,

859
00:45:17,840 --> 00:45:22,080
Speaker 1: you lead the SEC in sacks. Alabama's offensive line, especially

860
00:45:22,120 --> 00:45:24,759
Speaker 1: on the right side, has been vulnerable as of late.

861
00:45:25,080 --> 00:45:28,080
Speaker 1: I think that you may see continued rotation over there

862
00:45:28,080 --> 00:45:31,359
Speaker 1: at that right tackle spot until they eventually, well maybe

863
00:45:31,360 --> 00:45:33,240
Speaker 1: they don't arrive at a conclusion, but I think eventually

864
00:45:33,320 --> 00:45:37,439
Speaker 1: they will. Three three defensive touchdowns in the last six games.

865
00:45:37,480 --> 00:45:39,920
Speaker 1: Number two in takeaways. The folks over at Ulquest did

866
00:45:39,920 --> 00:45:42,000
Speaker 1: a great job of just bunching a lot of these

867
00:45:42,040 --> 00:45:44,680
Speaker 1: stat profiles together to make the case for Tennessee. I

868
00:45:44,680 --> 00:45:46,480
Speaker 1: happen to agree with it. That's why I tossed it

869
00:45:46,520 --> 00:45:49,240
Speaker 1: in the show. So, yeah, Bama's only lost two turnovers

870
00:45:49,239 --> 00:45:52,080
Speaker 1: all year. They could lose two in the first half Saturday,

871
00:45:52,080 --> 00:45:54,000
Speaker 1: for all I know. That's one thing that needs to

872
00:45:54,040 --> 00:45:56,839
Speaker 1: happen for Tennessee. The other one is, let's say that

873
00:45:56,880 --> 00:45:59,200
Speaker 1: doesn't happen. Let's say the game is not going to

874
00:45:59,239 --> 00:46:03,120
Speaker 1: be fundamentally decided by turnovers or big special teams plays,

875
00:46:03,320 --> 00:46:05,560
Speaker 1: and you just got to you just got to trade

876
00:46:05,600 --> 00:46:09,759
Speaker 1: punches with Alabama in a conventional way. You got to

877
00:46:09,760 --> 00:46:13,520
Speaker 1: control the game on the ground. That's your other path here.

878
00:46:13,680 --> 00:46:16,520
Speaker 1: Tennessee is a top twenty five rushing offense right now,

879
00:46:16,640 --> 00:46:19,960
Speaker 1: and Alabama is in the nineties in run defense. Now,

880
00:46:20,000 --> 00:46:22,840
Speaker 1: if you've watched Bama games, you may think, man, I

881
00:46:22,920 --> 00:46:26,279
Speaker 1: knew they weren't elite, but they haven't felt that bad. Well,

882
00:46:26,280 --> 00:46:29,919
Speaker 1: that's because it hasn't been six yard run, eight yard run,

883
00:46:30,120 --> 00:46:32,920
Speaker 1: seven yard run. What it's been is a lot of

884
00:46:32,960 --> 00:46:37,000
Speaker 1: manageable stuff in boom explosive fifty yards they are one

885
00:46:37,040 --> 00:46:41,000
Speaker 1: hundred and sixteenth and explosive runs allowed. That's what's bitten Alabama.

886
00:46:41,120 --> 00:46:43,239
Speaker 1: So if you can rip some of those off, and

887
00:46:43,360 --> 00:46:45,600
Speaker 1: especially if you can mix tempo in which Josh Hypel

888
00:46:45,920 --> 00:46:48,879
Speaker 1: does very effectively. There were a lot of times last

889
00:46:48,920 --> 00:46:51,920
Speaker 1: year in this game where Tennessee won the game. But

890
00:46:52,040 --> 00:46:54,360
Speaker 1: there were a lot of times, albeit with Nico at quarterback,

891
00:46:54,400 --> 00:46:57,359
Speaker 1: where I thought they schemed guys open very well and

892
00:46:57,560 --> 00:47:00,480
Speaker 1: the guy just overthrew them. They still did another to win.

893
00:47:01,000 --> 00:47:03,160
Speaker 1: I thought Tennessee left a lot on the table last year.

894
00:47:03,640 --> 00:47:06,400
Speaker 1: So the other thing with Alabama is we don't know

895
00:47:06,400 --> 00:47:08,920
Speaker 1: the status of jam Miller. Jam Miller had to leave

896
00:47:08,960 --> 00:47:11,840
Speaker 1: the game last week. He's dealing with a concussion protocol

897
00:47:11,920 --> 00:47:15,240
Speaker 1: this week, so that's kind of in the hands of doctors.

898
00:47:15,760 --> 00:47:17,520
Speaker 1: And if he's not able to go, or if he's

899
00:47:17,560 --> 00:47:20,799
Speaker 1: less than one hundred percent, what does that possible lack

900
00:47:20,840 --> 00:47:24,640
Speaker 1: of balance do. Because Bama hasn't had statistical balance all year,

901
00:47:25,120 --> 00:47:28,239
Speaker 1: like they have seldom topped one hundred yards on the

902
00:47:28,239 --> 00:47:30,239
Speaker 1: ground with a tailback. I think they've done it once.

903
00:47:30,520 --> 00:47:33,839
Speaker 1: But even if that's not right, they have not run

904
00:47:33,880 --> 00:47:37,279
Speaker 1: the ball statistically effectively. What they have done is they've

905
00:47:37,280 --> 00:47:40,759
Speaker 1: stayed committed to the run because jam Miller is enough

906
00:47:40,760 --> 00:47:43,640
Speaker 1: of a threat that the defense has to respect it.

907
00:47:44,600 --> 00:47:48,839
Speaker 1: If he doesn't play Saturday, then you think about how

908
00:47:48,880 --> 00:47:52,960
Speaker 1: opportunistic Tennessee defensively looks at that and just thinks to themselves,

909
00:47:53,200 --> 00:47:55,960
Speaker 1: we think we can we can defend the run, maybe

910
00:47:55,960 --> 00:47:58,080
Speaker 1: with a lighter box than we normally would have to

911
00:47:58,080 --> 00:48:00,759
Speaker 1: commit to it if jam Miller was playing. Even though

912
00:48:00,760 --> 00:48:03,240
Speaker 1: we know they're going to be stubborn, Alabama will be stubborn.

913
00:48:03,280 --> 00:48:05,239
Speaker 1: Grian Grubb will run the ball. He knows he has

914
00:48:05,320 --> 00:48:07,480
Speaker 1: to to make sure his deep shots are open and

915
00:48:07,480 --> 00:48:11,600
Speaker 1: his passing games open. Really, we're not gonna get baited

916
00:48:11,640 --> 00:48:14,800
Speaker 1: by that. That kind of could happen in this game.

917
00:48:15,080 --> 00:48:17,880
Speaker 1: If you don't possess the balance in terms of making

918
00:48:17,920 --> 00:48:20,480
Speaker 1: the defense respect the run, that's real balance. If you

919
00:48:20,520 --> 00:48:23,680
Speaker 1: don't possess that, that's another way Tennessee could tilt the game.

920
00:48:23,880 --> 00:48:26,280
Speaker 1: I made a big case for Tennessee here because Alabama

921
00:48:26,320 --> 00:48:27,719
Speaker 1: is a big favorite. So let's take a look at

922
00:48:27,719 --> 00:48:30,120
Speaker 1: at the model things. Vanduel's got Bama minus eight and

923
00:48:30,160 --> 00:48:33,160
Speaker 1: a half. The model is right in line with that.

924
00:48:33,280 --> 00:48:37,560
Speaker 1: We've got Alabama minus eight. Here's the problem. There is

925
00:48:37,719 --> 00:48:39,680
Speaker 1: I think going to be a damn breaking spot in

926
00:48:39,719 --> 00:48:43,040
Speaker 1: the second half of this game where it really goes

927
00:48:43,080 --> 00:48:46,080
Speaker 1: against Tennessee early on. I don't think that's going to

928
00:48:46,080 --> 00:48:48,120
Speaker 1: be the case, but there are too many big plays

929
00:48:48,200 --> 00:48:50,560
Speaker 1: to be made. And I know goodwell there's an emphasis

930
00:48:50,600 --> 00:48:53,120
Speaker 1: in that building down there in Tuscaloosa this week about

931
00:48:53,120 --> 00:48:57,680
Speaker 1: what the strength of that offense is, how underutilized some

932
00:48:57,760 --> 00:49:00,279
Speaker 1: of the elements of that passing game have been. And

933
00:49:00,360 --> 00:49:03,200
Speaker 1: you just drool all over your play sheet looking at

934
00:49:03,239 --> 00:49:06,360
Speaker 1: what you got coming in in terms of Tennessee secondary

935
00:49:06,719 --> 00:49:10,520
Speaker 1: And you know that was a twenty seven point effort

936
00:49:10,640 --> 00:49:13,160
Speaker 1: last week that I thought could have been closer to forty.

937
00:49:13,640 --> 00:49:16,360
Speaker 1: I think this week's effort will be closer to forty,

938
00:49:16,680 --> 00:49:18,440
Speaker 1: and I think it'll be too much for Tennessee. So

939
00:49:18,440 --> 00:49:20,400
Speaker 1: I'm going to take Alabama to win. I will actually

940
00:49:20,480 --> 00:49:22,920
Speaker 1: lay the number here. I do think Alabama's going to

941
00:49:23,000 --> 00:49:27,000
Speaker 1: win the game by double digits. They're watching us in Northport, Alabama.

942
00:49:27,200 --> 00:49:30,920
Speaker 1: They're watching us in Tampa, Florida, they're watching us in Bogata, Columbia.

943
00:49:30,960 --> 00:49:33,960
Speaker 1: We appreciate it. Let's continue. I almost did the copy

944
00:49:33,960 --> 00:49:37,040
Speaker 1: paste thing again in the live chat. We can't do that.

945
00:49:37,080 --> 00:49:40,919
Speaker 1: We cannot say disembowel twice on one show. That's one

946
00:49:40,960 --> 00:49:45,320
Speaker 1: time's okay, like one time's a warning. But the disembowelment

947
00:49:45,480 --> 00:49:47,759
Speaker 1: quota on this show has been and always will be

948
00:49:47,840 --> 00:49:51,600
Speaker 1: once per show. So over under one and a half,

949
00:49:51,640 --> 00:49:55,520
Speaker 1: we want the under to hit. We will be right

950
00:49:55,560 --> 00:50:00,280
Speaker 1: here Saturday in Nashville, Tennessee. LSU at Vanderbilt eleven a

951
00:50:00,320 --> 00:50:04,040
Speaker 1: local kick. This trip a very short one, will be

952
00:50:04,040 --> 00:50:06,719
Speaker 1: fueled by quick trip fall. Don't lie to her in

953
00:50:06,760 --> 00:50:10,759
Speaker 1: the house over here at Vanderbilt, and LSU's coming in

954
00:50:10,800 --> 00:50:14,439
Speaker 1: here with some juice, maybe a fair amount of juice.

955
00:50:14,480 --> 00:50:16,839
Speaker 1: They just beat South Carolina last week. Speaking of leaving

956
00:50:16,880 --> 00:50:20,320
Speaker 1: meat on the bone, how about LSU ground game finally

957
00:50:20,360 --> 00:50:23,640
Speaker 1: woke up a little bit, didn't it? Five point five

958
00:50:23,760 --> 00:50:27,960
Speaker 1: yards per carry LSU in this economy running the ball?

959
00:50:28,560 --> 00:50:31,520
Speaker 1: Was that real? You guys really mean that? I hope

960
00:50:31,560 --> 00:50:35,120
Speaker 1: you do. I said about Tuesday of last week. You

961
00:50:35,160 --> 00:50:37,200
Speaker 1: remember why I tweeted out Jesse. We didn't even flex

962
00:50:37,239 --> 00:50:39,760
Speaker 1: on this. We could have. I said, LSU and Texas

963
00:50:39,800 --> 00:50:42,600
Speaker 1: are going to look way better this Saturday, And wouldn't

964
00:50:42,640 --> 00:50:46,120
Speaker 1: you know it, Texas goes and stuffs Oklahoma and LSU

965
00:50:46,280 --> 00:50:48,719
Speaker 1: runs the ball as effectively as they have all year.

966
00:50:49,320 --> 00:50:52,920
Speaker 1: In fact, that was their first time above four yards

967
00:50:52,960 --> 00:50:56,840
Speaker 1: per carry all season, five point five. So it's a

968
00:50:56,840 --> 00:50:59,520
Speaker 1: whole new day for the LSU run game, or is it.

969
00:51:00,040 --> 00:51:02,800
Speaker 1: Here's how bad it's been. Even with that rushing effort

970
00:51:02,800 --> 00:51:05,680
Speaker 1: baked in, there's still one hundred and thirteenth in rushing

971
00:51:05,719 --> 00:51:08,800
Speaker 1: offense and Vandy is number sixteen in the country and

972
00:51:08,880 --> 00:51:11,960
Speaker 1: run defense. So you're not just waltzing into Nashville and

973
00:51:12,000 --> 00:51:14,719
Speaker 1: running all over Clark Lee and Vanderbilt. I don't think

974
00:51:15,239 --> 00:51:17,839
Speaker 1: the potential is there with this LSU team, I said

975
00:51:17,880 --> 00:51:19,759
Speaker 1: coming out of last weekend's game. I know they didn't

976
00:51:19,760 --> 00:51:22,240
Speaker 1: put forty five on the board. But I've been critical

977
00:51:22,280 --> 00:51:24,480
Speaker 1: of Joe Brady and that offensive staff because I thought

978
00:51:24,520 --> 00:51:27,440
Speaker 1: they're capable of more. They did show more out of

979
00:51:27,480 --> 00:51:29,160
Speaker 1: the by It was very obvious there were a lot

980
00:51:29,160 --> 00:51:33,000
Speaker 1: of sleepless nights spent in that building, exhausting all resources,

981
00:51:33,920 --> 00:51:37,080
Speaker 1: and I thought they they did okay last week, but

982
00:51:37,160 --> 00:51:40,280
Speaker 1: more so they showed potential. Like I watched that LSU

983
00:51:40,360 --> 00:51:43,279
Speaker 1: effort and I said, well, there goes Nuss's usual one

984
00:51:43,320 --> 00:51:45,440
Speaker 1: or two inexplicable throws, which is just going to be

985
00:51:45,520 --> 00:51:47,960
Speaker 1: part of the LSU experience this year. But I watched

986
00:51:47,960 --> 00:51:50,040
Speaker 1: it and said, you know, this makes me a little

987
00:51:50,080 --> 00:51:54,000
Speaker 1: more confident than the usual twenty point effort from LSU.

988
00:51:54,480 --> 00:51:57,640
Speaker 1: So the potential is there. This is what I call

989
00:51:57,719 --> 00:52:02,480
Speaker 1: the thin ice theory. If it's water, it's water, and

990
00:52:02,520 --> 00:52:05,280
Speaker 1: if it's solid ice, you can go and do jumping

991
00:52:05,360 --> 00:52:08,759
Speaker 1: jacks on it and it's not gonna break. I'm trying

992
00:52:08,800 --> 00:52:11,440
Speaker 1: to figure out how thick the LSU offensive ice is

993
00:52:11,840 --> 00:52:14,279
Speaker 1: because I can see it on the surface after last week.

994
00:52:14,320 --> 00:52:18,359
Speaker 1: It's there, very solid. I just tossed a pebble out

995
00:52:18,360 --> 00:52:20,600
Speaker 1: there there were no ripples, So there's some ice that's

996
00:52:20,640 --> 00:52:22,880
Speaker 1: for him do I feel confident enough to walk on

997
00:52:22,960 --> 00:52:28,240
Speaker 1: this yet, I don't know. Let's continue in the grand

998
00:52:28,239 --> 00:52:32,000
Speaker 1: scheme of things, LSU versus Vanderbilt. LSU wants to throw

999
00:52:32,040 --> 00:52:35,200
Speaker 1: the ball to win. They're probably getting Aaron Anderson back

1000
00:52:35,239 --> 00:52:38,200
Speaker 1: this week. Garrett Nussmeyer came out of the by where

1001
00:52:38,280 --> 00:52:42,280
Speaker 1: fingers crossed. He has a little bit better help about himself.

1002
00:52:42,600 --> 00:52:44,080
Speaker 1: I don't know that he'll ever be one hundred percent

1003
00:52:44,120 --> 00:52:47,320
Speaker 1: of the entire season, Vandy is sixty ninth against the pass.

1004
00:52:47,880 --> 00:52:51,080
Speaker 1: So look, Garrettnusmeyer has thrown interceptions in four of his

1005
00:52:51,160 --> 00:52:53,520
Speaker 1: last five games. We can't be doing that on the

1006
00:52:53,600 --> 00:52:56,400
Speaker 1: road or ever. We especially can't be doing that Saturday.

1007
00:52:56,560 --> 00:52:59,400
Speaker 1: I mean, that's how Vanderbilt ends up getting you towards

1008
00:52:59,480 --> 00:53:01,239
Speaker 1: the half where they've got a two and a half

1009
00:53:01,320 --> 00:53:04,400
Speaker 1: to one plays, run advantage and time of possessions all

1010
00:53:04,440 --> 00:53:06,959
Speaker 1: out of whack, and you can't even get your offense going.

1011
00:53:07,360 --> 00:53:10,120
Speaker 1: Vandy's top thirty in takeaways, by the way, So that's

1012
00:53:10,200 --> 00:53:13,000
Speaker 1: just sitting there. Vandy is stewed by the way. They

1013
00:53:13,000 --> 00:53:15,640
Speaker 1: didn't disappear. You hadn't seen them in a couple of weeks.

1014
00:53:15,680 --> 00:53:17,840
Speaker 1: You hadn't seen them since that Bama game because they

1015
00:53:17,880 --> 00:53:20,600
Speaker 1: had a buy last week, and I noticed the country

1016
00:53:20,680 --> 00:53:22,640
Speaker 1: kind of wanted to forget about Vanderbilt. I know the

1017
00:53:22,680 --> 00:53:25,440
Speaker 1: AP voters did. They they may have dropped Vandy last

1018
00:53:25,480 --> 00:53:28,680
Speaker 1: week because they didn't play, And according to the AP,

1019
00:53:29,080 --> 00:53:31,359
Speaker 1: Vandy didn't play, that means they didn't win. We need

1020
00:53:31,400 --> 00:53:33,920
Speaker 1: to drop them. You drop them three or four spots.

1021
00:53:34,840 --> 00:53:37,120
Speaker 1: You're getting Vandy's best coming out of the buy. Like

1022
00:53:37,160 --> 00:53:39,560
Speaker 1: they didn't go anywhere. They're a one loss team, They're

1023
00:53:39,560 --> 00:53:41,760
Speaker 1: a top twenty five team. They got one loss in conference,

1024
00:53:41,760 --> 00:53:43,360
Speaker 1: played just like a bunch of the rest of y'all do,

1025
00:53:43,760 --> 00:53:48,280
Speaker 1: including LSU, So you are an underdog in their building.

1026
00:53:48,600 --> 00:53:50,840
Speaker 1: In case I didn't state that off the top, that

1027
00:53:50,960 --> 00:53:52,560
Speaker 1: number at the bottom of the screen if you're watching

1028
00:53:52,600 --> 00:53:55,000
Speaker 1: on YouTube is not a typo. Vandy is favored by

1029
00:53:55,040 --> 00:53:58,880
Speaker 1: two and a half against LSU. Just so we've properly

1030
00:53:58,920 --> 00:54:02,279
Speaker 1: set the table here. LSU has seen some mobile quarterbacks

1031
00:54:02,360 --> 00:54:05,320
Speaker 1: before this year. They saw Leonora Sellers and they bottled

1032
00:54:05,400 --> 00:54:08,319
Speaker 1: him up. Last week. Trinidad Shambliss at Ole Miss had

1033
00:54:08,320 --> 00:54:11,200
Speaker 1: a little bit better luck against them. Blake Baker's an

1034
00:54:11,200 --> 00:54:15,000
Speaker 1: American hero at defensive coordinator, though so I think they'll

1035
00:54:15,000 --> 00:54:17,279
Speaker 1: have a good plan Saturday. I think Vandy will have

1036
00:54:17,320 --> 00:54:20,120
Speaker 1: a good plan Saturday. Frankly, I'm surprised the total is

1037
00:54:20,160 --> 00:54:22,520
Speaker 1: in the upper forties, but I'm right at five hundred

1038
00:54:22,560 --> 00:54:24,480
Speaker 1: betting totals this year, so I'm not touching the total.

1039
00:54:24,719 --> 00:54:26,960
Speaker 1: But I'm a solid underlean on this one if I

1040
00:54:27,000 --> 00:54:30,480
Speaker 1: had to. Each team is ninety fifth or worse in

1041
00:54:30,600 --> 00:54:37,279
Speaker 1: penalty yards per game, so someone preferably more than one.

1042
00:54:37,280 --> 00:54:39,239
Speaker 1: But at least someone's got to get their act together there.

1043
00:54:39,760 --> 00:54:42,560
Speaker 1: Pavia versus Blake baker Man. This is what we pay

1044
00:54:42,600 --> 00:54:44,839
Speaker 1: the money for. This is what we show up for

1045
00:54:44,880 --> 00:54:46,520
Speaker 1: with the fall. Don't lie toy. We want to see them.

1046
00:54:46,560 --> 00:54:49,320
Speaker 1: We want to see that LSU defense against Diego Pavia.

1047
00:54:49,400 --> 00:54:52,160
Speaker 1: We saw Bama look good against him. But there were

1048
00:54:52,200 --> 00:54:54,880
Speaker 1: also two red zone turnovers. And if it doesn't go

1049
00:54:55,000 --> 00:54:57,440
Speaker 1: that way, if it goes Vandy's way, if they execute better,

1050
00:54:58,120 --> 00:55:00,439
Speaker 1: who knows, maybe they put a much more crook number.

1051
00:55:00,440 --> 00:55:04,400
Speaker 1: As Mima would say up on Alabama, Well, you've had

1052
00:55:04,400 --> 00:55:06,680
Speaker 1: two weeks since then to get yourself right and to

1053
00:55:06,680 --> 00:55:09,040
Speaker 1: get ready for LSU to come into town. And now

1054
00:55:09,080 --> 00:55:11,960
Speaker 1: it's kind of super Bowl mode around here. It's Tuesday

1055
00:55:11,960 --> 00:55:14,160
Speaker 1: as I'm talking to you, and Nashville's kind of ready

1056
00:55:14,200 --> 00:55:16,200
Speaker 1: for this. Let's take a look at what the model thinks.

1057
00:55:16,960 --> 00:55:19,640
Speaker 1: Vandy is a two and a half point favorite at FanDuel.

1058
00:55:19,920 --> 00:55:22,799
Speaker 1: The model actually thinks the wrong team is favored. The

1059
00:55:22,840 --> 00:55:27,480
Speaker 1: model is LSU minus one. I have as little a

1060
00:55:27,560 --> 00:55:36,919
Speaker 1: feel on this game as any game out there. I Jesse, Jesse,

1061
00:55:37,000 --> 00:55:39,520
Speaker 1: I think I may have changed my mind. I think

1062
00:55:39,560 --> 00:55:42,200
Speaker 1: I may have possibly changed my mind. I walked out

1063
00:55:42,200 --> 00:55:44,719
Speaker 1: onto the set tonight and I was going to pick

1064
00:55:44,840 --> 00:55:49,840
Speaker 1: LSU to win. The more I think about Vandy season

1065
00:55:50,040 --> 00:55:52,640
Speaker 1: and how it could go versus how it's gone so far,

1066
00:55:53,120 --> 00:55:54,920
Speaker 1: it's a little bit of a crossroads moment. It's a

1067
00:55:54,920 --> 00:55:57,800
Speaker 1: crossroads moment for both of them. I go back to

1068
00:55:57,840 --> 00:56:00,440
Speaker 1: the thin ice theory. I need to say it one

1069
00:56:00,480 --> 00:56:02,879
Speaker 1: more time from LSU on the road before I'm ready

1070
00:56:02,920 --> 00:56:05,399
Speaker 1: to fully believe. Boy, I'm on the fence about this,

1071
00:56:06,040 --> 00:56:09,880
Speaker 1: and we already made the graphic for LSU. I'll go Vandy,

1072
00:56:10,000 --> 00:56:12,640
Speaker 1: I'll take out I'll take Vanderbilt to win. It's crazy

1073
00:56:12,680 --> 00:56:15,520
Speaker 1: you're talking like this with a point spread favorite. I

1074
00:56:16,440 --> 00:56:19,839
Speaker 1: liked LSU, man, I think Vanderbilt's gonna win the game,

1075
00:56:19,880 --> 00:56:22,879
Speaker 1: all right, I'll take Vandy and cover. I guess there

1076
00:56:22,920 --> 00:56:25,759
Speaker 1: it is. I changed it to Vandy. I don't know

1077
00:56:25,760 --> 00:56:27,319
Speaker 1: how you guys just did that. I didn't even think

1078
00:56:27,320 --> 00:56:29,239
Speaker 1: we had the ability to change graphics on the fly,

1079
00:56:29,360 --> 00:56:31,720
Speaker 1: but that literally just got changed in the past five minutes.

1080
00:56:33,000 --> 00:56:34,719
Speaker 1: We are, I guess we're no friend to people in

1081
00:56:34,719 --> 00:56:37,000
Speaker 1: Baton Rouge right now. Look, you gotta follow your heart.

1082
00:56:37,080 --> 00:56:39,960
Speaker 1: The head said LSU, the heart said Vandy. But as

1083
00:56:39,960 --> 00:56:43,000
Speaker 1: for the rest of you, I mean in Nashville, if

1084
00:56:43,000 --> 00:56:46,359
Speaker 1: you want to support the pick, my goodness, please do it.

1085
00:56:48,080 --> 00:56:51,439
Speaker 1: We had a terrible, terrible thing happened today. We're moving

1086
00:56:51,480 --> 00:56:54,040
Speaker 1: on here. We had a terrible thing happened today. I

1087
00:56:54,080 --> 00:56:57,920
Speaker 1: am a big believer in October South Carolina football in

1088
00:56:57,920 --> 00:57:00,680
Speaker 1: the month of October. Thus Cottober, I think is a

1089
00:57:00,760 --> 00:57:04,040
Speaker 1: very dangerous combination. Now, they did lose to LSU last weekend,

1090
00:57:04,640 --> 00:57:06,560
Speaker 1: and for the record, we picked LSU to win and

1091
00:57:06,600 --> 00:57:10,920
Speaker 1: cover in that game. No LSU hating here anyway. That

1092
00:57:11,080 --> 00:57:15,120
Speaker 1: has shaken a little bit people's belief in October. I'm

1093
00:57:15,160 --> 00:57:17,480
Speaker 1: all in. I think that South Carolina is going to

1094
00:57:17,520 --> 00:57:22,920
Speaker 1: give Oklahoma fits this Saturday, October comes to Columbia. The

1095
00:57:22,960 --> 00:57:26,280
Speaker 1: problem is not everyone agrees with me, and so one

1096
00:57:26,320 --> 00:57:30,160
Speaker 1: of you hit up Grok today. Free plug for Grot,

1097
00:57:30,320 --> 00:57:32,640
Speaker 1: good for Elon Musk. He's going to make something of

1098
00:57:32,720 --> 00:57:36,760
Speaker 1: himself financially. And they asked Grock if co October is

1099
00:57:36,800 --> 00:57:41,840
Speaker 1: a myth perpetuated by me, and Grock comes back and

1100
00:57:41,880 --> 00:57:46,560
Speaker 1: says yes, the stats show Coctober is more myth than reality.

1101
00:57:46,800 --> 00:57:50,120
Speaker 1: South Carolina is five and nine in October under Shane Beemer.

1102
00:57:50,400 --> 00:57:54,200
Speaker 1: Josh Pate does love promoting it, though. Cockvember thirteen and

1103
00:57:54,280 --> 00:57:58,040
Speaker 1: four is the real deal. First off, Cotvember is inappropriate,

1104
00:57:58,680 --> 00:58:02,880
Speaker 1: stick with October, and secondly, it doesn't roll off the tongue.

1105
00:58:02,960 --> 00:58:06,920
Speaker 1: And thirdly, if they get buried in October, November is

1106
00:58:06,960 --> 00:58:09,120
Speaker 1: not going to matter. We need Coctober. I'm not even

1107
00:58:09,120 --> 00:58:11,200
Speaker 1: predicting the game on the show tonight. I'm just telling

1108
00:58:11,240 --> 00:58:14,440
Speaker 1: you Twitter has fallen, X has fault, whatever you want

1109
00:58:14,440 --> 00:58:16,640
Speaker 1: to call it, it has fallen. I'm not going blue

1110
00:58:16,680 --> 00:58:19,000
Speaker 1: sky on you. I think I just may tap out entirely,

1111
00:58:19,440 --> 00:58:21,040
Speaker 1: so you may not see me on there for a

1112
00:58:21,080 --> 00:58:23,440
Speaker 1: couple of days, because I don't need AI attacking me.

1113
00:58:24,000 --> 00:58:27,680
Speaker 1: I know, South Carolina football, and October is very much alive.

1114
00:58:28,520 --> 00:58:32,800
Speaker 1: Let's continue. Jesse's in a bad way, and he's in

1115
00:58:32,840 --> 00:58:34,760
Speaker 1: a bad way because he is coachless. He's got an

1116
00:58:34,760 --> 00:58:38,200
Speaker 1: interim coach at Penn State. But Penn State is in

1117
00:58:38,280 --> 00:58:41,640
Speaker 1: a state of flux right now. So Kyle from Harrisburg

1118
00:58:41,800 --> 00:58:44,640
Speaker 1: hit me up and I wanted to address the two

1119
00:58:44,680 --> 00:58:47,880
Speaker 1: things he asked. He said, you sounded adamant about James

1120
00:58:47,920 --> 00:58:50,720
Speaker 1: Franklin not getting fired. How can you not see where

1121
00:58:50,760 --> 00:58:53,360
Speaker 1: Penn State fans are coming from? Also, do you have

1122
00:58:53,440 --> 00:58:57,520
Speaker 1: any ideas about the next guy for them? Kyle, I one,

1123
00:58:57,560 --> 00:59:00,280
Speaker 1: one hundred and fifty percent understand where Penn State fans

1124
00:59:00,280 --> 00:59:02,520
Speaker 1: are coming from, so much so that I think, I

1125
00:59:02,520 --> 00:59:04,520
Speaker 1: said on the show several times I would feel the

1126
00:59:04,560 --> 00:59:07,200
Speaker 1: same way. My vantage point was not one that was

1127
00:59:07,200 --> 00:59:10,080
Speaker 1: attached emotionally to Penn State. I was looking at it

1128
00:59:10,120 --> 00:59:12,840
Speaker 1: through what I thought were logical lenses. But I said,

1129
00:59:12,880 --> 00:59:16,720
Speaker 1: all the while, I completely get the sentiment. I mean,

1130
00:59:16,760 --> 00:59:19,080
Speaker 1: I could probably vocalize what you guys are feeling as

1131
00:59:19,080 --> 00:59:22,080
Speaker 1: good as you can. And so I looked at it,

1132
00:59:22,160 --> 00:59:26,600
Speaker 1: and you got to know something about me. I got

1133
00:59:26,600 --> 00:59:28,720
Speaker 1: personal relationships with a lot of these guys. But it's

1134
00:59:28,720 --> 00:59:30,680
Speaker 1: not even that because there are guys out there I

1135
00:59:30,720 --> 00:59:32,480
Speaker 1: don't know. There are guys I've never met that I

1136
00:59:32,480 --> 00:59:35,800
Speaker 1: would say the same stuff about. I always look at

1137
00:59:35,800 --> 00:59:39,240
Speaker 1: Firings coaches as last resorts, and I didn't feel it

1138
00:59:39,280 --> 00:59:41,440
Speaker 1: was last resort time at Penn State. Some of you

1139
00:59:41,480 --> 00:59:44,520
Speaker 1: fundamentally disagree with that, Like some of you looked at

1140
00:59:44,520 --> 00:59:47,560
Speaker 1: the colin Ward footage that we're showing on the YouTube

1141
00:59:47,560 --> 00:59:51,240
Speaker 1: show if you're watching it right now, and there's nothing

1142
00:59:51,320 --> 00:59:53,600
Speaker 1: between James or there's nothing behind the eyes there for

1143
00:59:53,680 --> 00:59:56,000
Speaker 1: James Franklin, and they're booing and walking off the field,

1144
00:59:56,040 --> 00:59:58,720
Speaker 1: and you know, you feel like the team's dead and

1145
00:59:58,760 --> 01:00:00,640
Speaker 1: the season's dead, which I admit I thought it was

1146
01:00:00,680 --> 01:00:02,440
Speaker 1: a dead season. It wasn't going to get any better,

1147
01:00:03,160 --> 01:00:05,480
Speaker 1: to be clear, if they had retained him, it wasn't

1148
01:00:05,520 --> 01:00:07,640
Speaker 1: going to get any better. I'm just always a believer

1149
01:00:07,680 --> 01:00:10,520
Speaker 1: that things can get rectified, and things have changed across

1150
01:00:10,560 --> 01:00:14,840
Speaker 1: the landscape of college football. But I completely get where

1151
01:00:14,840 --> 01:00:16,560
Speaker 1: you guys were coming from. I had a lot of

1152
01:00:16,560 --> 01:00:20,040
Speaker 1: people push back and say I don't agree with Peyton's

1153
01:00:20,040 --> 01:00:24,000
Speaker 1: take because what he's saying is you should never fire

1154
01:00:24,080 --> 01:00:26,640
Speaker 1: someone unless you definitively have an upgrade out there. And

1155
01:00:26,640 --> 01:00:29,600
Speaker 1: what you guys were saying is, nah, we're willing to

1156
01:00:29,640 --> 01:00:32,840
Speaker 1: take the risk. Yet, Yeah, there is no guarantee that

1157
01:00:32,920 --> 01:00:34,960
Speaker 1: who we hire is going to be better than James Franklin.

1158
01:00:35,240 --> 01:00:37,320
Speaker 1: But if the best we can do is just good,

1159
01:00:38,000 --> 01:00:41,040
Speaker 1: we're not okay with that because we don't invest good,

1160
01:00:41,400 --> 01:00:44,400
Speaker 1: we invest great. So we're going to chase great. We've

1161
01:00:44,400 --> 01:00:46,720
Speaker 1: had enough good. We're going to chase great. I was

1162
01:00:46,760 --> 01:00:49,040
Speaker 1: listening to Andy Staples talk earlier today. He put it

1163
01:00:49,080 --> 01:00:52,000
Speaker 1: a really good way. He said he agreed that Franklin

1164
01:00:52,040 --> 01:00:54,400
Speaker 1: should have been fired, So we disagreed on that front,

1165
01:00:54,400 --> 01:00:56,400
Speaker 1: but the case he made made a lot of sense.

1166
01:00:56,600 --> 01:01:00,760
Speaker 1: And he said the entire premise of James frank as

1167
01:01:00,760 --> 01:01:04,360
Speaker 1: of late had been he wins the games that he's

1168
01:01:04,360 --> 01:01:06,880
Speaker 1: supposed to and the only games he loses are the

1169
01:01:06,880 --> 01:01:09,240
Speaker 1: few where he's an underdog. So he's like very very

1170
01:01:09,280 --> 01:01:11,640
Speaker 1: properly rated, and that's why you keep paying him what

1171
01:01:11,640 --> 01:01:13,320
Speaker 1: you're paying him, and that's why you keep defending him.

1172
01:01:13,360 --> 01:01:16,440
Speaker 1: But the moment that dynamic changes, like the moment you

1173
01:01:16,520 --> 01:01:19,120
Speaker 1: lose two games in a row as a three plus

1174
01:01:19,160 --> 01:01:22,320
Speaker 1: touchdown favorite, well, not only then are you not winning

1175
01:01:22,320 --> 01:01:24,360
Speaker 1: the games you're not supposed to, You're you're not even

1176
01:01:24,400 --> 01:01:26,640
Speaker 1: winning the games you are supposed to. At that point,

1177
01:01:26,640 --> 01:01:30,120
Speaker 1: all the value for defending him drives up. I understand

1178
01:01:30,120 --> 01:01:33,760
Speaker 1: that logic. I disagree that the result should be that

1179
01:01:33,840 --> 01:01:35,880
Speaker 1: knee jerk, or the decision should be that knee jerk.

1180
01:01:35,920 --> 01:01:40,040
Speaker 1: I will also acknowledge this. I don't know that there's

1181
01:01:40,080 --> 01:01:43,720
Speaker 1: a whiff of scandal around this. If there was, that's

1182
01:01:43,760 --> 01:01:46,520
Speaker 1: a fundamental game changer. I will also say, since we

1183
01:01:46,560 --> 01:01:49,760
Speaker 1: had the show on Sunday, the language and the contract

1184
01:01:50,080 --> 01:01:53,520
Speaker 1: about mitigation clause is coming out. That's a game changer too.

1185
01:01:53,840 --> 01:01:56,360
Speaker 1: That means it's very very unlikely Penn State actually has

1186
01:01:56,400 --> 01:01:59,959
Speaker 1: to pay fifty plus million dollars in buyout money mitigation clause.

1187
01:02:00,040 --> 01:02:02,960
Speaker 1: Those are just those clauses where it's in your contract

1188
01:02:02,960 --> 01:02:04,760
Speaker 1: that if they fire you, you've got to make a

1189
01:02:04,760 --> 01:02:07,360
Speaker 1: solid effort to go get another job immediately, and the

1190
01:02:07,400 --> 01:02:10,920
Speaker 1: salary they pay you is offset in the buyout. Translation,

1191
01:02:11,440 --> 01:02:14,000
Speaker 1: go get the UCLA job, make him pay you five

1192
01:02:14,040 --> 01:02:15,960
Speaker 1: million a year, and then we're going to owe you

1193
01:02:16,000 --> 01:02:18,640
Speaker 1: five million per year less. So instead of paying you

1194
01:02:18,680 --> 01:02:20,480
Speaker 1: fifty over the span of a few years, we pay

1195
01:02:20,520 --> 01:02:23,560
Speaker 1: you like fifteen or twenty. Yeah, that makes a lot

1196
01:02:23,560 --> 01:02:27,720
Speaker 1: of sense. So now we're where we are. The second

1197
01:02:27,720 --> 01:02:30,479
Speaker 1: part of that question was do I have any idea

1198
01:02:30,520 --> 01:02:34,600
Speaker 1: where they're going to go? I don't think there's more

1199
01:02:34,720 --> 01:02:38,680
Speaker 1: than meets the eye right now. It's early. Like if

1200
01:02:38,720 --> 01:02:41,920
Speaker 1: you're looking at Pete Nakos, who is on the phone constantly.

1201
01:02:41,960 --> 01:02:45,280
Speaker 1: I work in the same building as Nakos, so I

1202
01:02:45,360 --> 01:02:47,720
Speaker 1: watch him do two things, go out in the parking

1203
01:02:47,720 --> 01:02:50,439
Speaker 1: lot and shoot hoops and then sit on his phone

1204
01:02:50,480 --> 01:02:53,400
Speaker 1: all day. And he was burning that phone today, and

1205
01:02:53,440 --> 01:02:56,720
Speaker 1: so I'm sitting there. I mean, I got the cup

1206
01:02:56,760 --> 01:02:59,640
Speaker 1: to the door and I'm listening. I know goodwell who

1207
01:02:59,640 --> 01:03:02,600
Speaker 1: he's taught looking too, and I know that information is legit.

1208
01:03:03,120 --> 01:03:05,760
Speaker 1: So when Pete Nkos tells you Matt Rule is the

1209
01:03:05,840 --> 01:03:08,600
Speaker 1: lead candidate right now until further notice, Matt Rule is

1210
01:03:08,640 --> 01:03:11,919
Speaker 1: the lead candidate, Kurt Signetti, I absolutely will be coveted here.

1211
01:03:12,520 --> 01:03:14,720
Speaker 1: I told you I'd go after Matt Campbell. I think

1212
01:03:14,760 --> 01:03:17,800
Speaker 1: he's on the list. The Marcus Freeman stuff's a little

1213
01:03:17,840 --> 01:03:20,080
Speaker 1: interesting to me, Like I don't think Freeman would ever

1214
01:03:20,120 --> 01:03:22,720
Speaker 1: go to Penn State that doesn't mean Pat Kraft couldn't

1215
01:03:22,720 --> 01:03:26,640
Speaker 1: take a wild swing at him. So yeah, there may

1216
01:03:26,680 --> 01:03:29,680
Speaker 1: be legitimacy there. And this is my opinion speaking. Now,

1217
01:03:29,840 --> 01:03:32,280
Speaker 1: there may be legitimacy there in a sense that Marcus

1218
01:03:32,280 --> 01:03:35,040
Speaker 1: Freeman's incredible at his job, So anyone who has a

1219
01:03:35,160 --> 01:03:38,520
Speaker 1: job opening is dumb not to try and lure him.

1220
01:03:39,080 --> 01:03:40,840
Speaker 1: I don't think he would be lured to Penn State.

1221
01:03:40,920 --> 01:03:44,920
Speaker 1: But again that's just my personal opinion speaking. But the

1222
01:03:45,000 --> 01:03:49,600
Speaker 1: thing with Matt rule, look selfishly, I hope Matt rule

1223
01:03:49,640 --> 01:03:51,960
Speaker 1: stays at Nebraska because I think rule at Nebraska is

1224
01:03:52,000 --> 01:03:55,640
Speaker 1: really good for college football. I think there's something to

1225
01:03:55,640 --> 01:04:00,720
Speaker 1: be said in this entire you know, like this entire

1226
01:04:00,800 --> 01:04:05,400
Speaker 1: coaching search snow globe, if you will, anytime it happens,

1227
01:04:05,960 --> 01:04:10,320
Speaker 1: if you've ever been pursued professionally, it's one thing to

1228
01:04:10,320 --> 01:04:14,400
Speaker 1: deal in fifty thousand foot theoreticals like oh, if so

1229
01:04:14,480 --> 01:04:16,920
Speaker 1: and so ever offered me, I think I'd probably go,

1230
01:04:17,040 --> 01:04:19,200
Speaker 1: Or if they offered me, I don't think I would go.

1231
01:04:19,360 --> 01:04:22,560
Speaker 1: That means nothing when they put the paper in front

1232
01:04:22,560 --> 01:04:26,520
Speaker 1: of you, here's the offer. That and only then is

1233
01:04:26,560 --> 01:04:29,920
Speaker 1: when it's real. And so there's going to be a moment.

1234
01:04:30,720 --> 01:04:32,760
Speaker 1: I think if things go the way they look like

1235
01:04:32,800 --> 01:04:34,680
Speaker 1: they're going to go, there could very well be a

1236
01:04:34,720 --> 01:04:37,760
Speaker 1: moment where, and it's two months from now, maybe Matt

1237
01:04:37,840 --> 01:04:41,600
Speaker 1: Rule actually has the Penn State offer. And you got

1238
01:04:41,640 --> 01:04:44,440
Speaker 1: to ask yourself, do you think he would turn that

1239
01:04:44,480 --> 01:04:47,560
Speaker 1: thing down? Not when it's theoretical in October, but when

1240
01:04:47,600 --> 01:04:49,880
Speaker 1: it is on a piece of paper in front of

1241
01:04:49,960 --> 01:04:52,760
Speaker 1: him in December? Would he turn it down? Is his

1242
01:04:52,800 --> 01:04:55,640
Speaker 1: team in the playoff like I predicted them to be,

1243
01:04:56,120 --> 01:05:00,200
Speaker 1: Does that timetable have any impact on this? It's just

1244
01:05:00,280 --> 01:05:01,960
Speaker 1: some stuff to think about. The other thing to think

1245
01:05:02,000 --> 01:05:04,400
Speaker 1: about is, yes, it's the middle of the season, so

1246
01:05:04,600 --> 01:05:07,720
Speaker 1: right now this stuff's going to garner big headlines. It's

1247
01:05:07,720 --> 01:05:11,440
Speaker 1: not gonna garner big headlines after Saturday. It's like chalk

1248
01:05:11,600 --> 01:05:15,760
Speaker 1: on the driveway once the rain comes through, or in

1249
01:05:15,800 --> 01:05:18,280
Speaker 1: our case, all the chalk on the driveway is the

1250
01:05:18,320 --> 01:05:20,720
Speaker 1: coaching search stuff. Franklin got fired. Well, we got a

1251
01:05:20,760 --> 01:05:23,480
Speaker 1: Saturday Saturday's worth the game's coming through. That'll wash the

1252
01:05:23,560 --> 01:05:27,320
Speaker 1: driveway off. Once that happens, Penn State message boards will

1253
01:05:27,360 --> 01:05:30,160
Speaker 1: be talking about it, but nothing's going to happen until December.

1254
01:05:30,360 --> 01:05:33,040
Speaker 1: This isn't like a mid season trade where Penn State

1255
01:05:33,040 --> 01:05:36,720
Speaker 1: announces next week we're hiring Kurt Signetti. He will no

1256
01:05:36,840 --> 01:05:39,280
Speaker 1: longer coach Indiana this year. So a lot of stuff's

1257
01:05:39,280 --> 01:05:41,520
Speaker 1: happening behind the scenes. That's the way the coaching searchers

1258
01:05:41,520 --> 01:05:43,840
Speaker 1: are going to work out. The second thing, and if

1259
01:05:43,880 --> 01:05:46,280
Speaker 1: I'm a coach, I don't care who it is. I'm

1260
01:05:46,440 --> 01:05:50,280
Speaker 1: very cognizant of this. The second thing is more jobs

1261
01:05:50,280 --> 01:05:52,920
Speaker 1: are going to come open. I promise you Penn State's

1262
01:05:52,920 --> 01:05:55,600
Speaker 1: the first major job to come open. By major, I

1263
01:05:55,640 --> 01:05:58,480
Speaker 1: mean top fifteen. It is not the last top fifteen

1264
01:05:58,560 --> 01:06:02,400
Speaker 1: job to come open. Anyone who is in demand knows that.

1265
01:06:02,680 --> 01:06:07,360
Speaker 1: Anyone's agent who is in demand knows that. So you

1266
01:06:07,440 --> 01:06:10,600
Speaker 1: want to see the entire landscape before you make decisions.

1267
01:06:10,720 --> 01:06:12,160
Speaker 1: And a lot of these candidates are going to be

1268
01:06:12,200 --> 01:06:16,320
Speaker 1: candidates from multiple jobs jai plural of jobs. So those

1269
01:06:16,320 --> 01:06:18,200
Speaker 1: are just some things to consider it. But I do

1270
01:06:18,240 --> 01:06:21,760
Speaker 1: think the early lists out there are pretty much on

1271
01:06:21,800 --> 01:06:24,080
Speaker 1: the up and up. Like follow Nakos, Follow Pete Nakos.

1272
01:06:24,080 --> 01:06:27,120
Speaker 1: He's very very in touch with this stuff and spends

1273
01:06:27,160 --> 01:06:31,000
Speaker 1: twenty seven hours a day on the phone. Let's continue, Jesse,

1274
01:06:31,080 --> 01:06:34,240
Speaker 1: what do we have jpeople. Yeah, I think we got

1275
01:06:34,320 --> 01:06:39,360
Speaker 1: JP Pole. Okay, guys, I'll just intro it, Bradley. Here,

1276
01:06:39,400 --> 01:06:41,760
Speaker 1: here's your intro point. We do the JP Pole every

1277
01:06:41,800 --> 01:06:44,240
Speaker 1: Tuesday night. These are not rankings. These are power ratings.

1278
01:06:44,280 --> 01:06:48,920
Speaker 1: And I am as beside myself with one aspect of

1279
01:06:48,960 --> 01:06:51,120
Speaker 1: the JP Pole this week as I could possibly be.

1280
01:06:51,440 --> 01:06:53,160
Speaker 1: For those of you who are new, these are not

1281
01:06:53,200 --> 01:06:55,280
Speaker 1: my rankings. I do those on Thursday. I've got the

1282
01:06:55,280 --> 01:06:58,560
Speaker 1: computer model over here, and it is built to spit

1283
01:06:58,640 --> 01:07:01,400
Speaker 1: out teams in order of how the model would favor

1284
01:07:01,400 --> 01:07:03,720
Speaker 1: them on a neutral field. Now, before you crap all

1285
01:07:03,760 --> 01:07:06,560
Speaker 1: over the model, this thing has won us money seven

1286
01:07:06,600 --> 01:07:08,520
Speaker 1: out of the last eight years we have used it

1287
01:07:08,560 --> 01:07:11,840
Speaker 1: to bet. The ram Noodle Express is largely powered by

1288
01:07:11,840 --> 01:07:14,400
Speaker 1: the model, but the JP Pole is as well. Now,

1289
01:07:14,680 --> 01:07:18,800
Speaker 1: the model largely has our best interests in mind, but

1290
01:07:18,880 --> 01:07:21,360
Speaker 1: it doesn't actually have a mind cause it's a computer.

1291
01:07:21,760 --> 01:07:24,200
Speaker 1: So there's some times where we see things that the

1292
01:07:24,240 --> 01:07:28,000
Speaker 1: model can't see. And trust me when I tell you, friends,

1293
01:07:28,320 --> 01:07:32,040
Speaker 1: that's about to happen tonight. Okay, with that in mind,

1294
01:07:33,160 --> 01:07:35,600
Speaker 1: let me show you twenty through sixteen. And I'm just

1295
01:07:35,680 --> 01:07:38,560
Speaker 1: gonna say this out loud. If you're watching on YouTube,

1296
01:07:38,600 --> 01:07:40,920
Speaker 1: you're already laughing. I'm just gonna say this out loud

1297
01:07:40,920 --> 01:07:42,720
Speaker 1: for the podcast crowd. Then I'm going to come back

1298
01:07:42,760 --> 01:07:47,160
Speaker 1: to it. Vandy is number twenty, Okay, Penn State is

1299
01:07:47,240 --> 01:07:52,960
Speaker 1: number nineteen. Just hold your laughter for a second. Clemson

1300
01:07:53,080 --> 01:07:56,120
Speaker 1: is eighteen, Southern Cows up five spots to number seventeen,

1301
01:07:56,160 --> 01:07:59,520
Speaker 1: and LSU is sixteen. I am so irate that the

1302
01:07:59,600 --> 01:08:03,520
Speaker 1: JPP and the model has Penn State top twenty that

1303
01:08:03,760 --> 01:08:08,800
Speaker 1: I had pres who works graphics for us, manually override

1304
01:08:08,840 --> 01:08:12,120
Speaker 1: the power rating, but I didn't tell him remove Penn

1305
01:08:12,120 --> 01:08:15,120
Speaker 1: State because that would be unethical. I had him draw

1306
01:08:15,120 --> 01:08:18,719
Speaker 1: on asterisk next to the Penn State logo and put

1307
01:08:18,760 --> 01:08:22,280
Speaker 1: the reasoning behind Penn State being power rated top twenty

1308
01:08:22,320 --> 01:08:26,040
Speaker 1: beneath it. And the reason is drugs. Drugs, That's the

1309
01:08:26,040 --> 01:08:28,640
Speaker 1: only reason Penn State could be power rated there. Or

1310
01:08:28,760 --> 01:08:33,160
Speaker 1: put another way, the model is high on talent and

1311
01:08:33,200 --> 01:08:36,960
Speaker 1: it is taking Penn State's talent roster and saying, wait,

1312
01:08:37,040 --> 01:08:40,200
Speaker 1: you programmed me to value this, and like, yeah, I

1313
01:08:40,280 --> 01:08:43,320
Speaker 1: programmed you to value that. Do you also not understand

1314
01:08:43,320 --> 01:08:45,600
Speaker 1: it's a dead team and I'm not talking to you

1315
01:08:45,600 --> 01:08:47,439
Speaker 1: guys right now. This is just between me and the model.

1316
01:08:47,479 --> 01:08:49,240
Speaker 1: I'll be with you in a second, Like, do you

1317
01:08:49,280 --> 01:08:51,880
Speaker 1: not get how that works? Put it down, Put the

1318
01:08:51,920 --> 01:08:55,040
Speaker 1: pipe down and actually take a look. Use your common sense.

1319
01:08:55,160 --> 01:08:58,040
Speaker 1: You don't have common sense because you're a computer. Okay,

1320
01:08:58,080 --> 01:09:03,599
Speaker 1: So yes, technically Penn State's nineteen. Also, yes, there would

1321
01:09:03,640 --> 01:09:06,559
Speaker 1: be way more than nineteen teams favored over Penn State

1322
01:09:06,560 --> 01:09:08,719
Speaker 1: this week. But if you think that the models alone

1323
01:09:08,760 --> 01:09:12,080
Speaker 1: on this, I need to remind you Penn State's playing

1324
01:09:12,160 --> 01:09:15,360
Speaker 1: Iowa this weekend. Do you know Penn State opened and

1325
01:09:15,520 --> 01:09:19,559
Speaker 1: was briefly favored against Iowa before it immediately got bet

1326
01:09:19,600 --> 01:09:23,800
Speaker 1: across zero and now Iowa was favored. Why is that? Well,

1327
01:09:23,800 --> 01:09:26,280
Speaker 1: it's because the odds makers use the same kind of

1328
01:09:26,280 --> 01:09:28,880
Speaker 1: intel that we do to feed into their systems and

1329
01:09:28,920 --> 01:09:32,839
Speaker 1: their models. All of you drugs. Let's go fifteen through eleven.

1330
01:09:33,280 --> 01:09:37,200
Speaker 1: Tennessee's number fifteen. They play at Alabama this weekend. Utah,

1331
01:09:37,400 --> 01:09:39,800
Speaker 1: we are still high on the model has not sold

1332
01:09:39,800 --> 01:09:43,240
Speaker 1: its Utah stock even after that blowout loss to Texas Tech.

1333
01:09:43,920 --> 01:09:47,759
Speaker 1: Missouri and Oklahoma are thirteen and twelve. Now Texas Tech's eleven,

1334
01:09:48,040 --> 01:09:51,080
Speaker 1: and I got to tell you again, I know you

1335
01:09:51,160 --> 01:09:53,519
Speaker 1: guys may not believe this, or you may have to

1336
01:09:53,520 --> 01:09:56,360
Speaker 1: see it to believe it. I've only got a two

1337
01:09:56,439 --> 01:09:58,880
Speaker 1: point twenty five point gap, a two and a quarter

1338
01:09:58,920 --> 01:10:02,280
Speaker 1: point gap between in Utah and Texas Tech neutral field.

1339
01:10:03,000 --> 01:10:06,439
Speaker 1: I'm like you, Okay, if fan duel, if that game

1340
01:10:06,479 --> 01:10:10,200
Speaker 1: were played today in neutral field like Arlington, for example,

1341
01:10:10,960 --> 01:10:12,800
Speaker 1: and they gave me Texas Tech minus two and a

1342
01:10:12,840 --> 01:10:15,880
Speaker 1: half against Utah, yeah, I'd lay tons of money on it.

1343
01:10:15,880 --> 01:10:18,120
Speaker 1: It'd be a best bet for me. But I'm not

1344
01:10:18,160 --> 01:10:19,880
Speaker 1: here to tell you which way i'd bet. I'm here

1345
01:10:19,920 --> 01:10:22,200
Speaker 1: to tell you what the model says about these teams,

1346
01:10:22,200 --> 01:10:25,000
Speaker 1: and then you can dissect it appropriately. Number ten is

1347
01:10:25,040 --> 01:10:28,760
Speaker 1: Old Miss. They're down three spots after beating Washington State

1348
01:10:29,680 --> 01:10:32,840
Speaker 1: very unimpressively. They go to Georgia Saturday. Texas A and

1349
01:10:32,920 --> 01:10:37,519
Speaker 1: M's number nine. Texas is number eight. Now you'll notice

1350
01:10:37,560 --> 01:10:40,600
Speaker 1: Texas didn't move up any for US after beating Oklahoma.

1351
01:10:40,640 --> 01:10:43,160
Speaker 1: Why is that because we already had Texas top ten.

1352
01:10:43,880 --> 01:10:46,240
Speaker 1: We got trashed for that last week. If you'll recall

1353
01:10:46,880 --> 01:10:50,280
Speaker 1: this is so stupid, Well, the model is drunk on Texas.

1354
01:10:50,320 --> 01:10:53,240
Speaker 1: That's an evergreen statement, but in this particular moment, the

1355
01:10:53,479 --> 01:10:57,519
Speaker 1: model was right about Texas, and we believe Texas should

1356
01:10:57,560 --> 01:11:00,360
Speaker 1: have been a point spread favorite over Oklahoma even with

1357
01:11:00,479 --> 01:11:03,320
Speaker 1: John Mattier playing. We were adamant about that. Last week

1358
01:11:03,560 --> 01:11:06,720
Speaker 1: we got crapped on for it. The folks who made

1359
01:11:06,720 --> 01:11:09,599
Speaker 1: the comments are silent now, you see, because we had

1360
01:11:09,640 --> 01:11:12,080
Speaker 1: Texas where they should have been. We had Oklahoma where

1361
01:11:12,080 --> 01:11:14,000
Speaker 1: they should have been. That's why neither of those teams

1362
01:11:14,000 --> 01:11:16,800
Speaker 1: really moved all that much. We got the result that

1363
01:11:16,800 --> 01:11:19,360
Speaker 1: we thought we would get. We were keeping the teams

1364
01:11:19,439 --> 01:11:22,479
Speaker 1: exactly where the model had them. We got Oregon at seven.

1365
01:11:22,520 --> 01:11:26,160
Speaker 1: They are down five spots. We do not believe the

1366
01:11:26,160 --> 01:11:31,560
Speaker 1: Penn State subsequent results after the Oregon game should devalue

1367
01:11:31,840 --> 01:11:36,479
Speaker 1: the Oregon win at Penn State, meaning Oregon went to

1368
01:11:36,520 --> 01:11:39,280
Speaker 1: Penn State and they killed Penn State as a team.

1369
01:11:39,320 --> 01:11:41,880
Speaker 1: They killed them, and then Penn State played like a

1370
01:11:41,960 --> 01:11:45,439
Speaker 1: dead team the next two weeks. Franklin got fired because

1371
01:11:45,439 --> 01:11:49,320
Speaker 1: of it. I don't believe, nor do you believe, Penn

1372
01:11:49,320 --> 01:11:52,320
Speaker 1: State would have gotten beaten by UCLA and Northwestern had

1373
01:11:52,320 --> 01:11:54,800
Speaker 1: they beaten Oregon, So that sucked the life out of

1374
01:11:54,840 --> 01:11:58,280
Speaker 1: Penn State. I am not retroactively devaluing or taking credit

1375
01:11:58,320 --> 01:12:00,360
Speaker 1: away from Oregon beating Penn State because of it, because

1376
01:12:00,360 --> 01:12:04,679
Speaker 1: they're the cause of it. So Notre Dame's number six. Again,

1377
01:12:04,720 --> 01:12:09,000
Speaker 1: if you've doubted the model continuing to have Notre Dame

1378
01:12:09,040 --> 01:12:11,680
Speaker 1: this high, I only ask you to look at this

1379
01:12:11,800 --> 01:12:15,639
Speaker 1: game this weekend. All this is based on, by the way,

1380
01:12:15,720 --> 01:12:17,960
Speaker 1: this thing's just who would be favored against two on

1381
01:12:18,000 --> 01:12:20,599
Speaker 1: a neutral field by how many? Okay, well, Notre Dame

1382
01:12:20,600 --> 01:12:23,439
Speaker 1: plays Southern cal this Saturday, not on a neutral field.

1383
01:12:23,560 --> 01:12:25,360
Speaker 1: They play them in South Bend, so let's add three

1384
01:12:25,400 --> 01:12:28,080
Speaker 1: points for home field. Notre Dame is a nine and

1385
01:12:28,120 --> 01:12:30,200
Speaker 1: a half point favorite in that game, so even if

1386
01:12:30,200 --> 01:12:33,439
Speaker 1: I subtract the home field value, they're a six to

1387
01:12:33,520 --> 01:12:36,719
Speaker 1: a six and a half point favorite over usc Us.

1388
01:12:36,760 --> 01:12:39,400
Speaker 1: He is not a bad team. We got usc at seventeen.

1389
01:12:39,840 --> 01:12:43,439
Speaker 1: I'm not making the case here to defend Notre Dame

1390
01:12:43,479 --> 01:12:46,479
Speaker 1: covering or anything. I'm just telling you if you think

1391
01:12:46,840 --> 01:12:51,200
Speaker 1: because of two losses, Vegas is gonna have Notre Dame

1392
01:12:51,240 --> 01:12:54,760
Speaker 1: plummet in their odds making, you're crazy. Notre Dame's way

1393
01:12:54,840 --> 01:12:56,439
Speaker 1: up there right now. There are not many teams that

1394
01:12:56,439 --> 01:12:58,759
Speaker 1: would be favored against Notre Dame. So they're number six.

1395
01:12:58,840 --> 01:13:03,479
Speaker 1: Here's five through one. We're just five. Alabama's number four.

1396
01:13:03,960 --> 01:13:05,559
Speaker 1: We didn't need to move them. We already had them

1397
01:13:05,600 --> 01:13:08,200
Speaker 1: up here. So like, Bama keeps winning these games, but

1398
01:13:08,280 --> 01:13:10,759
Speaker 1: we never dropped them, and we never dropped them beneath

1399
01:13:10,800 --> 01:13:13,600
Speaker 1: Florida State, for example, after week one, remember that was

1400
01:13:13,640 --> 01:13:16,599
Speaker 1: a while back. Remember week two, we still had Bama

1401
01:13:16,680 --> 01:13:18,680
Speaker 1: way ahead of Florida State, and everyone was like, how

1402
01:13:18,720 --> 01:13:23,960
Speaker 1: is that possible? This thing? Click bait, clickbait, bait, Florida

1403
01:13:23,960 --> 01:13:29,400
Speaker 1: State crickets, Bama top five again. Sometimes the model knows

1404
01:13:29,439 --> 01:13:32,680
Speaker 1: what it's doing. Indiana is the number three team in

1405
01:13:32,720 --> 01:13:36,760
Speaker 1: the JP pole. I can't believe what's happening. They are

1406
01:13:36,840 --> 01:13:40,320
Speaker 1: plus eleven points in their power rating from where they

1407
01:13:40,360 --> 01:13:44,400
Speaker 1: opened the season. They are plus eight spots from where

1408
01:13:44,400 --> 01:13:47,040
Speaker 1: they were last week. So the model looked at that

1409
01:13:47,080 --> 01:13:52,080
Speaker 1: result and it basically said game on. Like all the

1410
01:13:52,120 --> 01:13:55,479
Speaker 1: cobwebs that were over the model's eyes about Indiana have

1411
01:13:55,640 --> 01:14:01,000
Speaker 1: been wiped away. It is perfectly understandable how Indiana would

1412
01:14:01,000 --> 01:14:04,080
Speaker 1: be favored or be ranked top three in a poll

1413
01:14:04,320 --> 01:14:07,000
Speaker 1: and a merit based poll. I don't really think people

1414
01:14:07,040 --> 01:14:10,840
Speaker 1: properly understand how crazy it is that in a power

1415
01:14:10,960 --> 01:14:16,320
Speaker 1: rating model power rating format like neutral field favorability format,

1416
01:14:16,560 --> 01:14:20,360
Speaker 1: that the University of Indiana or Indiana University is above

1417
01:14:20,680 --> 01:14:24,080
Speaker 1: Alabama and Georgia and Notre Dame in Oregon, in Texas

1418
01:14:24,400 --> 01:14:26,840
Speaker 1: at any point in the season. I don't think people

1419
01:14:26,920 --> 01:14:29,400
Speaker 1: understand how crazy that is. I don't even think I

1420
01:14:29,439 --> 01:14:32,360
Speaker 1: fully understand it. We got Miami two, we got Ohio

1421
01:14:32,439 --> 01:14:37,280
Speaker 1: State one. Some quick notes here, Ohio State is a

1422
01:14:37,920 --> 01:14:41,040
Speaker 1: runaway number one. Right now, we have a four point

1423
01:14:41,120 --> 01:14:44,880
Speaker 1: gap between Ohio State and number two Miami. To give

1424
01:14:44,880 --> 01:14:46,680
Speaker 1: you an idea of how wide a margin that is.

1425
01:14:47,560 --> 01:14:51,559
Speaker 1: There's four points between Ohio State and Miami. There are

1426
01:14:51,680 --> 01:14:54,400
Speaker 1: four points between Miami at number two and the number

1427
01:14:54,439 --> 01:14:57,400
Speaker 1: eleven team. So there's this wide a gap between number

1428
01:14:57,400 --> 01:14:59,280
Speaker 1: one and two as there is between two and eleven.

1429
01:15:00,080 --> 01:15:02,840
Speaker 1: So good for Ryan Day. Again, I don't really think

1430
01:15:02,920 --> 01:15:05,200
Speaker 1: Ryan Day is in it for the trophies. He doesn't

1431
01:15:05,200 --> 01:15:08,640
Speaker 1: care so much about the Big ten championship game, Michigan rivalry,

1432
01:15:08,960 --> 01:15:12,800
Speaker 1: national titles, and playoffs. Ryan Day chases being number one

1433
01:15:12,800 --> 01:15:15,679
Speaker 1: of the JP pole and for another week he's there.

1434
01:15:16,320 --> 01:15:18,519
Speaker 1: It's a streak, it's a trend. Now. I don't know

1435
01:15:18,560 --> 01:15:20,360
Speaker 1: what we should send him. I don't know if that's

1436
01:15:20,400 --> 01:15:23,640
Speaker 1: challice worthy. But if you believe in the jpeople, and

1437
01:15:23,680 --> 01:15:25,680
Speaker 1: you believe in Ohio State, and I know Goodwill, you

1438
01:15:25,720 --> 01:15:27,400
Speaker 1: believe in at least one of those, you can go

1439
01:15:27,400 --> 01:15:30,519
Speaker 1: bet at FanDuel right now, exclusive odds provider of the show.

1440
01:15:31,200 --> 01:15:33,439
Speaker 1: I'm about to add a couple of best bets aboard

1441
01:15:33,439 --> 01:15:36,080
Speaker 1: the RAM and Noudle Express for this weekend. But FanDuel

1442
01:15:36,760 --> 01:15:39,320
Speaker 1: the exclusive odds provider. But also, if you'll notice, back

1443
01:15:39,320 --> 01:15:41,400
Speaker 1: when I was doing playoff predictions at the beginning of

1444
01:15:41,439 --> 01:15:43,960
Speaker 1: the show, Bradley was throwing up a lot of random

1445
01:15:44,000 --> 01:15:47,080
Speaker 1: numbers on the screen. Well, those aren't random numbers. Those

1446
01:15:47,160 --> 01:15:51,720
Speaker 1: are odds to win conferences and they aren't hypothetical. You

1447
01:15:51,760 --> 01:15:54,599
Speaker 1: could bet every one of those. So if you saw

1448
01:15:55,280 --> 01:15:57,800
Speaker 1: like Texas and you really think they're about to have

1449
01:15:57,800 --> 01:16:00,240
Speaker 1: to ass a second half surge, and you saw they

1450
01:16:00,240 --> 01:16:02,240
Speaker 1: are in odds to win the SEC, you can go

1451
01:16:02,240 --> 01:16:05,120
Speaker 1: bet them right now. You could also just bet them

1452
01:16:05,160 --> 01:16:06,879
Speaker 1: on the field. Who do they play? I think Kentucky.

1453
01:16:07,040 --> 01:16:09,120
Speaker 1: I believe they play them this Saturday. Here you can

1454
01:16:09,160 --> 01:16:11,160
Speaker 1: go do that. If you're a new sign up, by

1455
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Speaker 2: call one eight seven seven eight Hope n Y. Or

1475
01:17:12,960 --> 01:17:14,479
Speaker 2: text Hope n Y in New York.

1476
01:17:15,040 --> 01:17:18,280
Speaker 1: Speaking of I would like to take this opportunity to

1477
01:17:18,280 --> 01:17:20,960
Speaker 1: close the show with two added best bets so so

1478
01:17:21,160 --> 01:17:23,200
Speaker 1: far this week, let me make sure we have this.

1479
01:17:23,520 --> 01:17:26,160
Speaker 1: We're on Syracuse plus eleven and a half against pitt

1480
01:17:27,000 --> 01:17:30,400
Speaker 1: We're on Mississippi State plus nine and a half at Florida.

1481
01:17:30,800 --> 01:17:35,200
Speaker 1: All right. We are going to add to that Arizona

1482
01:17:35,240 --> 01:17:39,719
Speaker 1: plus one and a half against Houston. And we're gonna

1483
01:17:39,840 --> 01:17:43,679
Speaker 1: again ride with Northern Illinois plus eleven and a half.

1484
01:17:44,080 --> 01:17:46,400
Speaker 1: They are at Ohio. That's gonna be a tough game

1485
01:17:46,400 --> 01:17:48,120
Speaker 1: for them. That's why they're being given eleven and a

1486
01:17:48,160 --> 01:17:53,440
Speaker 1: half points so qs Mississippi State, Arizona, and Northern Illinois

1487
01:17:53,520 --> 01:17:58,120
Speaker 1: so far, with plenty of additions to come throughout the week. Remember,

1488
01:17:58,800 --> 01:18:02,439
Speaker 1: if you're watching or listen, we love you, every one

1489
01:18:02,439 --> 01:18:04,640
Speaker 1: of us, even producer Jesse and Bradley, we love you.

1490
01:18:05,520 --> 01:18:07,760
Speaker 1: Just subscribe to the channel. You don't even need to

1491
01:18:07,800 --> 01:18:10,479
Speaker 1: say I love you too. Instead of doing that, we

1492
01:18:10,520 --> 01:18:13,439
Speaker 1: prefer you subscribe to the channel or the podcast. It

1493
01:18:13,520 --> 01:18:16,360
Speaker 1: doesn't do anything for you, your life remains the same,

1494
01:18:16,640 --> 01:18:20,919
Speaker 1: ours gets better because we have more subs, and eventually

1495
01:18:21,000 --> 01:18:24,840
Speaker 1: we're going to get to five hundred k, probably before Thanksgiving,

1496
01:18:25,200 --> 01:18:28,080
Speaker 1: and at that point we've got to take suggestions for

1497
01:18:28,120 --> 01:18:31,000
Speaker 1: how we celebrate first things first, though, we got to

1498
01:18:31,000 --> 01:18:33,000
Speaker 1: get there, So make sure you subscribe and tell five

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01:18:33,040 --> 01:18:35,720
Speaker 1: of your friends to do the same. Bonus points if

1500
01:18:35,760 --> 01:18:38,639
Speaker 1: you subscribe on like your mom's phone, and she'll never

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Speaker 1: even know, Like what she doesn't know in this case

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01:18:40,960 --> 01:18:42,800
Speaker 1: really doesn't hurt her. All right, Let's go home and

1503
01:18:42,800 --> 01:18:45,760
Speaker 1: eat dinner for producer Jesse, director Bradley. I'm Josh Pate.

1504
01:18:45,960 --> 01:18:49,439
Speaker 1: We'll be back one hour early Thursday night, seven Eastern,

1505
01:18:49,560 --> 01:18:53,599
Speaker 1: sixth Central Cublic. I'm told we'll join the show. We'll

1506
01:18:53,640 --> 01:18:56,560
Speaker 1: see until then, take care, have a great middle of

1507
01:18:56,600 --> 01:18:57,960
Speaker 1: your week, and God bless.

1508
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Speaker 2: Must be twenty one plus and present in select states

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Speaker 2: Hope is here, visit gambling heelplinem dot org, or call

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1521
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1522
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Speaker 1: In New York