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Speaker 1: This is Bloomberg Surveillance. T two says, if a big

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Speaker 1: bank gets into trouble, the people put their money there,

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Speaker 1: other than the insure deposits, you will expect to take losses.

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Speaker 1: Wolfeckers ceased to exists as an affected cartel. The action

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Speaker 1: has shifted to American fractors. There's a large amount of

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Speaker 1: debt out there, and there's very little room in most countries,

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Speaker 1: with the exception of China, for more fiscal stimulus. Bloomberg

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Speaker 1: Surveillance your link to the world of economics, finance, and investment.

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Speaker 1: On Bloomberg Radio, Good morning everyone is super Tuesday nationwide.

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Speaker 1: This is Bloomberg Surveillance. Good morning of Bloomberg nine sixty

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Speaker 1: the Bay Area of Bloomber twelve, Boston, Bloominger eleven three

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Speaker 1: oh in New York, and here in Washington FM. We

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Speaker 1: said good morning to all of Washington and Baltimore and

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Speaker 1: on Serious Sex Temp Channel one nineteen, across Canada and

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Speaker 1: across America. It will be a most unusual day. I

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Speaker 1: can't say enough about our plans for coverage here led

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Speaker 1: by Marty Schenker from Washington on government and economics today

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Speaker 1: leading up to with all due respect Mark Alpert and

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Speaker 1: John Hilman. Look for that tonight, a special broadcast to

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Speaker 1: make you smarter about what are presumed and I mean

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Speaker 1: presumed landslides for Secretary Clinton and Mr Trump. Will see

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Speaker 1: how that plays out, particularly in the Great state of Texas.

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Speaker 1: Right now, we need to do the great state of

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Speaker 1: foreign exchange market. The Forex Brief brought to my Interactive

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Speaker 1: Broker's winner of f fax Weeks two thousand fifteen award

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Speaker 1: I b k R dot com slash for rex. A

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Speaker 1: churn to the markets the euro one O eight seventy

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Speaker 1: five again one thirteen oh four as well. Michael's got

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Speaker 1: some news out as well. Yeah, we have a headline

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Speaker 1: crossing the Bloomberg Professional terminal here. Honeywell is no longer

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Speaker 1: going to pursue accommodation with United Technologies, so they're giving

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Speaker 1: up on that effort. And that's an interesting backstory from

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Speaker 1: our our work with Michael Holland and Peter Arnett a

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Speaker 1: stern age particularly. Both of them focused Mike on how

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Speaker 1: the Honeywell board would react to the spirited effort to

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Speaker 1: go back. Both were rather pessimistic about the immediate acquisition

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Speaker 1: of Honeywell acquiring U t X. Yes, we will well it,

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Speaker 1: says Um. Honeywell disagrees with U t x is characterization

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Speaker 1: of the deal risk, but apparently United Technology is unwilling

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Speaker 1: to negotiate. According to Honeywell, concerned about I guess Anti

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Speaker 1: trus the other possibilities. We have no choice. We can't negotiate.

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Speaker 1: We must go to David Wilson and look at the

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Speaker 1: equa markets this morning. David, good morning, Good morning Tom.

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Speaker 1: You're seeing an immediate reaction in the shares of both

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Speaker 1: United Technologies and Honeywell to the news that these companies

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Speaker 1: are no longer potential merger targets U United Technologies down

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Speaker 1: four percent in early trading and Honeywell up about three percent.

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Speaker 1: The Chrysler's up four percent. The car makers US sales

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Speaker 1: rose eleven point eight percent last month. That was faster

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Speaker 1: than analyst expected the average projection calling for growth of

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Speaker 1: nine point two percent. Sales figures from Ford Motor and

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Speaker 1: General Motors are due later today, so the auto stocks

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Speaker 1: will be worth watching. UH shares of Macau casino owners

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Speaker 1: are higher after the Chinese city said February revenue fell

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Speaker 1: just one tenth per percent. That was actually the best

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Speaker 1: performance in twenty one months. Analysts expected to drop a

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Speaker 1: two percent on average. So you've got Los Vegas Sands

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Speaker 1: hired by two percent, MGM Resorts up two and a

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Speaker 1: half percent, Win Resorts up three percent, and Melco Crown

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Speaker 1: also about three percent higher. In early trading, met Tronic

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Speaker 1: down four and a half percent. The medical device makers

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Speaker 1: earnings failed to beat the average estment in the Bloomberg

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Speaker 1: survey for the first time in five quarters. Metronics revenue

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Speaker 1: trailed analysts average projections as well. Marathon Oil down four

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Speaker 1: and a half percent. The energy producer raised one point

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Speaker 1: one billion dollars by some on a hundred forty five

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Speaker 1: million shares, equivalent to an eighteen percent steak. Marathon following

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Speaker 1: the lead of Devon Energy, Hess and other oil and

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Speaker 1: gas producers by going to the stock market for care

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Speaker 1: Enter Continental Exchange down one percent. The owner of the

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Speaker 1: New York Stock Exchange is exploring an offer for the

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Speaker 1: London Stock Exchange, which is in merger talks with Deutsche

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Speaker 1: bors Ice confirmed a report from Bloomberg News yesterday about

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Speaker 1: the deliberations and uh why not? Son Edison down twenties

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Speaker 1: six percent. The solar plant developer delated t annual report

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Speaker 1: to US regulators. Son Edison attributed to postponent to a

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Speaker 1: probe into accusations of financial wrongdore made by former executives

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Speaker 1: as well as current and former employees. David Wilson, thank

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Speaker 1: you so much. Wet digressed now from our political economics

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Speaker 1: of the morning to talk said and monetary policy. Thirty

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Speaker 1: five years ago. He was in the sub sub sub

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Speaker 1: sub basement of the FED were the wages prices in

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Speaker 1: product ativity section of the Division of Research. This means

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Speaker 1: he's the only guy we know, Mike who won't blather

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Speaker 1: Division of Research and Statistics at the Board of Governors,

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Speaker 1: now works for the Peterson Institute. You would have put

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Speaker 1: together or helped put together and present the teal book

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Speaker 1: the FEDS compilation of how things are going in the

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Speaker 1: economy and the markets, along with various possible monetary policy

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Speaker 1: options that they go over at every meeting. So give

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Speaker 1: us a teal book look at the economy right now,

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Speaker 1: particularly the idea that the markets are seeing something that

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Speaker 1: that is the key question that the FED is going

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Speaker 1: to be struggling with this point. You know, I think

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Speaker 1: the issue is the tension between the relatively UH well

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Speaker 1: maintained growth and employment and a provements in the labor market,

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Speaker 1: which looked now to be pretty broad base UH and

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Speaker 1: while there was some UH weakening of the economy and

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Speaker 1: the fourth quarter, things look like they're bouncing back to

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Speaker 1: a two percent range here in the current quarter. I

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Speaker 1: think the FED is going to be both concerned about

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Speaker 1: the consequences of the financial tightening that's taken place since

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Speaker 1: their December meeting UM, but not necessarily yet buying into

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Speaker 1: a story that we in fact have gone over the

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Speaker 1: edge and that we're facing some serious downside risks. Well,

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Speaker 1: the markets seem to have priced something like that, and

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Speaker 1: can they be a self fulfilling prophecy. It can be,

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Speaker 1: And in some sense, I think you could look a

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Speaker 1: look at UH President Dudley's comments yesterday in China where

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Speaker 1: he indicated that if these UH factors, if the recent

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Speaker 1: tightening is going to persist, UH, he would be marking

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Speaker 1: down his forecast even more than he already has, so

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Speaker 1: I think there can be some self fulfilling prophecy. On

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Speaker 1: the other hand, if some of the ritz, some of

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Speaker 1: market expectations and financial market prices proved to have been

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Speaker 1: in the financial conditions that we would be reinforced by

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Speaker 1: improving economic data, and in fact that would put the

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Speaker 1: fedback on a path of its gradual tightening. The word

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Speaker 1: we're using a lot is uncertainty. Chairman Greenspan user word

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Speaker 1: advice Chairman Fisher recently using or you're the king of

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Speaker 1: degrees of confidence? Do you have confidence in our guestimate

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Speaker 1: of our uncertainty? So that's a good question, you know.

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Speaker 1: I try to avoid always saying now is more uncertain

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Speaker 1: than it's ever been before. The economists are almost always

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Speaker 1: saying that, But in this case it might actually be true.

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Speaker 1: I think we're facing a broader range of uncertainties, not

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Speaker 1: just economic uncertainties, and not just economic uncertainties abroad, but

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Speaker 1: also geopolitical uncertainties that we see the geopolitical uncertainties in Europe,

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Speaker 1: in Asia, in the Middle East. I think all of

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Speaker 1: that is is weighing on on UH certainly business sentiment,

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Speaker 1: less so on consumer sentiment remains, which remains relatively well maintained. UM.

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Speaker 1: But I do think businesses in particular, you can see

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Speaker 1: it in the investment data themselves just very reluctant to

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Speaker 1: commit to large scale capital expenditures at this point, given

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Speaker 1: the uncertainties of their things. Sherman Greenspan, Yeah, well, you

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Speaker 1: you are also UH the chief macro economist at l H.

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Speaker 1: Meyer Larry Meyers firm. When you talk to clients, what

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Speaker 1: is it that they're afraid of? Why are they holding back?

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Speaker 1: What needs to change for them to start investing? So

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Speaker 1: I think a couple of things. One would be some clarification,

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Speaker 1: certainly on the geopolitical front that there aren't any major

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Speaker 1: UH breaks here that would cause some significant problems, and

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Speaker 1: of course those have been reinforced recently by the migrants

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Speaker 1: in Europe. But I think in addition to that, there's

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Speaker 1: a general sense that concern that in fact China is

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Speaker 1: weakening more than people currently anticipate, and that that could

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Speaker 1: have major spillovers to the global economy. And I think

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Speaker 1: they right now are reluctant UH in that environment with

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Speaker 1: a downside risk that might be associated with not just

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Speaker 1: for China, spillovers to emerging markets and then feedback in

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Speaker 1: terms of our own financial markets and the time that

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Speaker 1: we got left with you. You work with Lawrence Meyer,

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Speaker 1: the former governor. His wonderful book A Term at the FED.

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Speaker 1: I tell every kid to read. It was a time

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Speaker 1: of a different communication. Is there too much communication now

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Speaker 1: in your world? Is the FED so UM? I would

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Speaker 1: say there's not necessarily too much in quantity. I think

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Speaker 1: communication is always good, but unfortunately in terms of the

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Speaker 1: quality of that communication I think has suffered some. I

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Speaker 1: do think the FED is UH not sort of bringing

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Speaker 1: I think communication could be reinforcing a sense of where

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Speaker 1: the uncertainties were, but instead we have many different UH

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Speaker 1: speakers to the FED that are I think, perhaps increasing

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Speaker 1: the uncertainty about the outlook for policy, then reducing it

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Speaker 1: or at least highlighting where the uncertainties are going to be. Well.

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Speaker 1: We want to continue this discussion with you, David Stockton,

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Speaker 1: with us with the Peterson Institute for International Economics, and

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Speaker 1: also with L. H. Meyer, and is to be direct

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Speaker 1: and esteemed UH analysis of the American economy. Futures up thirteen, down,

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Speaker 1: futures up eighty seven this morning, um a quiescent tap.

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Speaker 1: Maybe that's because politics is front and center. I promise

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Speaker 1: we're gonna talk to David Stockton. I don't think we'll

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Speaker 1: get into the America's politics. Can you somehow get Super

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Speaker 1: Tuesday into it? Mike, there's a challenge. There's a challenge

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Speaker 1: we'll get. We'll get politics into our discussion with David

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Speaker 1: Stockton again. Futures up thirteen. All right, let's check out

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Speaker 1: with Michael Byr now and get the latest world in

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Speaker 1: national headlines. Michael, Mike, Tom, thank you very much. Today.

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Speaker 1: Voters in several states so heading to the polls you

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Speaker 1: vote in primaries for Super Tuesday. Democrat Bernie Sanders already

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Speaker 1: has voted in his hometown of Burlington, Vermont, saying your

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Speaker 1: voter turnout is high. We are going to do well.

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Speaker 1: Front runner Donald Trump says it is the media that

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Speaker 1: keeps controversy going, involving former KKK leader David Duke, who

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Speaker 1: has told people to support Trump. Trump says he has

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Speaker 1: disavowed Duke several times. Bloomberg will have NonStop Super Tuesday

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Speaker 1: coverage throughout the night, starting with a special edition of

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Speaker 1: With All Due Respect starting at five pm Wall Street Time.

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Speaker 1: The United States has asked the U N Security Council

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Speaker 1: to schedule a vote today on the resolution that was

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Speaker 1: set new sanctions against North Korea. It's in response to

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Speaker 1: Beyond Gang's latest nuclear test. President Obama will meet later

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Speaker 1: today with Republican Senate leaders who have vowed to block

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Speaker 1: his nomination to the U. S. Supreme Court. Global News

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Speaker 1: twenty four hours a day. I'm Michael Barr, Mike Tom,

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Speaker 1: Michael Barr, Thanks so much. Features up thirteen frugrees a

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Speaker 1: Nighty won the Super Tuesday from Washington. Bloomberg Surveillance. Marcot

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