WEBVTT - ‘Flight to Crap’ 0:00:13.480 --> 0:00:17.320 Hello, and welcome to What Goes Up, a weekly markets podcast. 0:00:17.640 --> 0:00:20.320 I'm Mike Reagan, and I'm a senior editor at Bloomberg, 0:00:20.920 --> 0:00:25.160 and I'm dannahark Across, asset reporter at Bloomberg. This week 0:00:25.200 --> 0:00:27.920 on the show, well Mark, it's got a few curveballs 0:00:27.960 --> 0:00:32.040 thrown at it. Geopolitics is front and center again in 0:00:32.080 --> 0:00:36.360 the news as the evacuation of Afghanistan turns deadly, and 0:00:36.520 --> 0:00:39.720 policymakers at the Federal Reserve are starting to make it 0:00:39.760 --> 0:00:42.640 clear that they're ready to start dialing back the liquidity 0:00:42.840 --> 0:00:45.080 that has been so crucial to the bull market over 0:00:45.120 --> 0:00:47.560 the last year and a half. What's it all means 0:00:47.600 --> 0:00:50.479 for financial markets. Well, we'll get into it with the 0:00:50.560 --> 0:00:54.880 chief strategist at a major brokerage. But first, Vildanna, I 0:00:54.880 --> 0:00:57.640 gotta tell you it was a big week this week 0:00:57.680 --> 0:01:02.080 because our old pal uh Sarah Hanzac actually re emerged 0:01:02.280 --> 0:01:04.800 on television. Did you did you catch her appearance? I 0:01:04.840 --> 0:01:08.399 sure did. It was really an exciting day. It reminded 0:01:08.440 --> 0:01:12.320 me of how smart and well educated Sarah is, Vildona, 0:01:12.440 --> 0:01:15.679 But as I she knows the one big gaping hole 0:01:15.920 --> 0:01:19.120 in her education that I pointed out to her many 0:01:19.160 --> 0:01:22.520 times is old man movies. Um, she hasn't seen any 0:01:22.560 --> 0:01:25.520 of them. Whenever you get two old guys together in 0:01:25.520 --> 0:01:28.520 a room, at some point, they just lapse into another 0:01:28.600 --> 0:01:31.880 language that is nothing but quotes from old man movies. 0:01:32.000 --> 0:01:33.640 And I gave her a list of movies to see 0:01:33.680 --> 0:01:36.200 so that she could understand guys like me. I think 0:01:36.200 --> 0:01:39.440 you tweeted it out once, right, I did? I did? Yeah? Yeah? Actually, 0:01:39.520 --> 0:01:41.440 John and John author has wrote a calm about it. 0:01:41.680 --> 0:01:44.240 Uh not everyone's a fan of the old man movies. 0:01:44.280 --> 0:01:46.960 I know your generation maybe it's kind of sick of 0:01:47.040 --> 0:01:48.880 us old men, But I do think it's important in 0:01:48.960 --> 0:01:52.240 your job to know the old man movies. I'm gonna 0:01:52.240 --> 0:01:54.200 give you a list too. I think you should. You'll 0:01:54.240 --> 0:01:57.280 actually watch them. I think Sarah kind of pretended like 0:01:57.320 --> 0:01:59.360 she was gonna watch them. If you give me a list, 0:01:59.360 --> 0:02:02.280 then I'll treat it as homework and I'll watch them. Okay, good? 0:02:02.360 --> 0:02:04.960 And now well we can play stump Fildonna with some 0:02:05.000 --> 0:02:06.880 old man movie clicks. I'll give you one today. Let's 0:02:06.880 --> 0:02:10.519 see if you can get this one. You ready? Their nihilists, man, 0:02:10.760 --> 0:02:14.520 they keep saying they believe in nothing. Do you get 0:02:14.560 --> 0:02:18.680 that one? You need me? Repeated crickets over here. But 0:02:18.680 --> 0:02:22.079 I have a feeling our guest knows exactly what you're 0:02:22.120 --> 0:02:25.400 talking about. Do you think let's find out. Let's find out. Well, 0:02:25.400 --> 0:02:28.480 we're joined today by Steve Sosnik. He's the chief strategist 0:02:28.560 --> 0:02:31.920 at Interactive Brokers. Welcome to the show, Steve. It's my 0:02:32.000 --> 0:02:34.680 pleasure to join you, Bill, Donna, and Mike. You can 0:02:34.720 --> 0:02:38.040 call me dude or his dudeness or l doin no, 0:02:39.280 --> 0:02:41.480 which Mike knows immediately what I'm talking about. And you 0:02:41.520 --> 0:02:44.800 don't have the slightest now I know, the big Lebowski. 0:02:45.320 --> 0:02:50.400 There you go a just not good quotes. I get 0:02:50.440 --> 0:02:52.960 half a point. We're impressed you caught it at least 0:02:52.960 --> 0:02:55.320 on the on the second reference. Sorry, that's good. That 0:02:55.440 --> 0:02:59.040 is impressive, Steve. Let's get into it though, I you know, 0:02:59.600 --> 0:03:04.480 talk about a sudden uh drama in the news with 0:03:04.560 --> 0:03:08.279 this Afghanistan situation. I mean it's it's obviously a heartbreaking 0:03:09.000 --> 0:03:12.960 situation from a humanitymanitarian standpoint, and I know, you know 0:03:13.000 --> 0:03:15.200 it's can be awkward to talk about that type of 0:03:15.240 --> 0:03:18.160 thing as it relates to markets. But um, such as 0:03:18.200 --> 0:03:20.720 our our fate in life, I guess so, um, you 0:03:20.760 --> 0:03:23.880 know our thoughts and simpathy to everyone affected by that. 0:03:23.919 --> 0:03:28.359 But um, UM, I do think our listeners probably are curious, 0:03:29.000 --> 0:03:33.200 um if this eventually has uh the chance to to 0:03:33.280 --> 0:03:35.680 be a catalyst in the market. You know, I for me, 0:03:35.760 --> 0:03:38.480 I can't really draw a straight line from what's going 0:03:38.520 --> 0:03:42.000 on to sort of any fundamentals in the economy or 0:03:42.000 --> 0:03:45.000 in the market's. Maybe oil gets a little jittery in 0:03:45.000 --> 0:03:48.000 those markets, but you know that doesn't always stop the 0:03:48.000 --> 0:03:50.320 market from having sort of a knee jerk reaction to 0:03:50.360 --> 0:03:52.760 this sort of thing, especially on Thursday this week, as 0:03:52.800 --> 0:03:56.480 it the bombings happened, and there's reports coming in as 0:03:56.520 --> 0:03:58.840 we tape right now, some some Marines being killed in 0:03:58.840 --> 0:04:02.800 the bombings. Is this a market potentially a market moving event? 0:04:02.840 --> 0:04:05.040 Do you think, um, either in the short term or 0:04:05.080 --> 0:04:08.720 in the long term, if this sort of affects the 0:04:08.800 --> 0:04:15.240 US standing geopolitically with other um situations around the world, well, 0:04:15.560 --> 0:04:18.560 as tough as it is to deal with, it's as 0:04:18.560 --> 0:04:22.560 a market moving event. It's it's really an outlier, you know, 0:04:23.680 --> 0:04:25.640 think of it this way. And I don't mean to 0:04:25.680 --> 0:04:29.240 minimize what happened today by any means, but the last 0:04:29.360 --> 0:04:32.400 week and a half two weeks in Afghanistan has been 0:04:32.800 --> 0:04:36.520 you know, pretty much an unmitigated um set of scenes 0:04:36.600 --> 0:04:40.919 of of of nightmarish looking you know, nightmares looking setups. 0:04:40.960 --> 0:04:43.159 And you know, the thought is as it like Psigon 0:04:43.400 --> 0:04:47.360 or whatever. Bottom line though, is the market didn't care. 0:04:48.200 --> 0:04:52.000 And for better or worse, this is not you know, 0:04:52.040 --> 0:04:55.120 the markets, I will say, I think the people in 0:04:55.200 --> 0:04:59.080 the market's care. But ultimately, when you get down to it, 0:04:59.080 --> 0:05:02.800 it's not. Afghanistan is such an outlier to the world economy. 0:05:02.839 --> 0:05:06.160 It doesn't contribute much in the way of GDP if anything. 0:05:06.880 --> 0:05:09.960 You know, their main export at this point is opium poppy, 0:05:10.279 --> 0:05:12.840 which is really outside the you know, the framework of 0:05:12.880 --> 0:05:16.760 the economy. And so if if we have to think 0:05:16.800 --> 0:05:20.560 in the terms of what does this mean to earnings 0:05:20.600 --> 0:05:25.520 and cash flows or whatever, it doesn't um And that's 0:05:25.560 --> 0:05:29.520 why that that's why the market reaction is has been 0:05:29.640 --> 0:05:33.359 muted in that regard. Yes, the markets sold off on 0:05:33.400 --> 0:05:36.960 that trigger. I think markets just don't like anything any 0:05:36.960 --> 0:05:41.000 sort of terrorism that because that's that's a more visceral problem. 0:05:41.000 --> 0:05:44.920 But in terms of a widespread economic thing, perhaps there's 0:05:44.920 --> 0:05:49.160 a geopolitical answer answer in there. But um, you know, 0:05:49.200 --> 0:05:50.960 I think I think in the world of day to 0:05:51.040 --> 0:05:55.280 day trading and short term investing, it's just not there's 0:05:55.400 --> 0:05:58.040 there's not a clear cause effect in terms of what's 0:05:58.040 --> 0:06:00.479 going to move a market. And I think Steve the 0:06:00.560 --> 0:06:02.880 through line here is that the market has been able 0:06:02.920 --> 0:06:06.400 to look past so much. I think a lot of 0:06:06.440 --> 0:06:09.760 people refer to the market climbing, you know, the wall 0:06:09.920 --> 0:06:12.640 of worry, and you know, we keep hitting record high 0:06:12.720 --> 0:06:15.800 after record high. I think the big question is how 0:06:15.880 --> 0:06:18.760 much longer all of this can go on for? And 0:06:18.760 --> 0:06:21.880 I'm hoping you can share your thoughts. Well, I think 0:06:21.880 --> 0:06:26.520 we'll get some clarity on that. Regard um this this weekend, um, 0:06:26.720 --> 0:06:31.159 you know, as the Jackson Hole Conference proceeds, you know, Friday, Saturday, UM, 0:06:31.200 --> 0:06:33.600 you know, we're we're as we're taping this now. I 0:06:33.640 --> 0:06:35.520 think they're you know, they're having drinks on the patio, 0:06:36.279 --> 0:06:39.320 you know, virtually or those who or those who had 0:06:39.400 --> 0:06:43.400 nonrefundable tickets, you know, in hotel reservations are um. But 0:06:44.120 --> 0:06:46.280 you know, I think that the key is this has 0:06:46.320 --> 0:06:49.839 been a very liquidity driven market. I think that somehow 0:06:49.880 --> 0:06:53.680 the market has markets have still really not come to 0:06:53.760 --> 0:06:56.640 grips with the fact that the FED is really talking 0:06:56.720 --> 0:07:01.279 quite seriously about if not not necessarily tightening, but taking 0:07:01.279 --> 0:07:05.040 their foot off the accelerator. And you know, I wonder 0:07:05.080 --> 0:07:07.520 if even just the act of taking their foot off 0:07:07.560 --> 0:07:09.960 the accelerator. You know, I don't love to use the 0:07:10.160 --> 0:07:14.280 term taper tantrum, but you know, I think that we've 0:07:14.320 --> 0:07:17.480 gotten We've gotten to where we are in a wide 0:07:17.520 --> 0:07:23.080 variety of risk assets because of the relentless accommodation of 0:07:23.120 --> 0:07:25.240 the FED and too and certainly to some extent of 0:07:25.600 --> 0:07:29.080 the fiscal accommodation as well. Um and I think that 0:07:29.120 --> 0:07:30.640 the market is going to have to reckon with this, 0:07:30.720 --> 0:07:34.080 and I think stock investors will probably end up taking 0:07:34.080 --> 0:07:37.440 their cue from the bond market, because quite honestly, bond 0:07:37.440 --> 0:07:43.360 traders are better at this stuff than stock traders. Fair enough. 0:07:43.560 --> 0:07:46.720 Fair enough, they certainly watched the FED a lot closer 0:07:46.760 --> 0:07:49.560 than than most of the stock traders I know. But Steve, 0:07:49.600 --> 0:07:52.280 I was joking about the nihilism and the nihilists at 0:07:52.280 --> 0:07:54.960 the beginning, because you had a funny quote in some 0:07:55.040 --> 0:07:59.320 of our email traffic before this, uh, reacting to a story, 0:07:59.400 --> 0:08:02.120 and not to talk our own book, but I will 0:08:02.160 --> 0:08:03.800 talk her own book of Eldon and I wrote a 0:08:03.840 --> 0:08:06.280 story about sort of, as she said, sort of the 0:08:06.280 --> 0:08:12.320 wall where or just the the the basic unknowable nous 0:08:12.560 --> 0:08:16.360 if that's an actual word about the economy and the 0:08:16.400 --> 0:08:19.720 markets and what's coming next in the age of COVID 0:08:19.960 --> 0:08:23.680 and in the age of all the stimulus throne at it, 0:08:23.920 --> 0:08:26.960 and I wonder, you know, and you you would sort 0:08:26.960 --> 0:08:29.120 of describe it as as a nihilist market, which I 0:08:29.440 --> 0:08:33.760 like that a lot, uh dude references aside, but I wonder, 0:08:33.880 --> 0:08:38.360 you know, obviously the FED liquidity is a huge part 0:08:38.400 --> 0:08:41.440 of why that phenomenon exists to some degree. There's a 0:08:41.480 --> 0:08:44.760 lot of money slashing around looking to find a home. Um, 0:08:45.200 --> 0:08:48.240 how important is the dialing back of that when the 0:08:48.280 --> 0:08:52.000 fiscal side of things has been so aggressive to um 0:08:52.160 --> 0:08:55.000 and and not only just the fiscal stimulus that the spending, 0:08:55.040 --> 0:09:00.120 but just you know, the amount of savings that the 0:09:00.440 --> 0:09:04.000 consumer in America has had over the past year, those 0:09:04.040 --> 0:09:06.080 of us lucky enough to keep our job or you know, 0:09:06.120 --> 0:09:09.920 be able to whatever reason, boost our savings rate. The 0:09:09.920 --> 0:09:12.560 the American savings rate just went through the roof. There 0:09:12.600 --> 0:09:14.680 just was not a lot of things to spend money on. 0:09:15.240 --> 0:09:18.680 So in some ways, does that sort of uh make 0:09:18.720 --> 0:09:22.280 the tapering maybe less problematic than it would be otherwise 0:09:22.559 --> 0:09:26.160 if we didn't have this this aggressive fiscal and you know, 0:09:26.400 --> 0:09:31.000 economic based liquidity on on the other side, outside of 0:09:31.000 --> 0:09:34.960 the federal reserve. UM. I think a lot of it 0:09:35.000 --> 0:09:37.680 has to do with how those savings are deployed. UM. 0:09:37.720 --> 0:09:39.199 I think if you and you know, I think if 0:09:39.200 --> 0:09:41.600 those savings, first of all, if those savings were used 0:09:41.600 --> 0:09:44.720 to pay down debt um, you know, if they were 0:09:44.800 --> 0:09:48.160 used to refinance mortgages, UM, if they were used to 0:09:48.440 --> 0:09:52.240 pay down credit cards, UH, the individual's balance sheet is 0:09:52.280 --> 0:09:55.000 in much better shape and thus able to withstand it. 0:09:55.320 --> 0:09:57.120 If you then too, if, on the other hand, you 0:09:57.160 --> 0:10:00.200 took all your stimulus money and refinanced your house and 0:10:00.360 --> 0:10:04.319 bought um, you know, doach coin, I would say that 0:10:04.360 --> 0:10:07.360 you're I would say that your financial standing maybe a 0:10:07.400 --> 0:10:11.480 bit more UM tied to the outcome of Jackson Hole. 0:10:11.559 --> 0:10:13.680 And I think you know, if if you if you've 0:10:13.840 --> 0:10:17.120 used those if part of the savings, you know, the 0:10:17.120 --> 0:10:20.120 improvement and balance sheet is because of the wealth effect 0:10:20.200 --> 0:10:23.080 from you know, stocks going up. Let's say you just 0:10:23.120 --> 0:10:26.480 did something and let's say you just brought SMP index funds. 0:10:26.880 --> 0:10:30.320 You're you're you're doing what quite well. Um, if the 0:10:30.360 --> 0:10:33.680 market reacts poorly, you'll get a draw down. You probably 0:10:33.720 --> 0:10:35.960 won't get the full draw down to what we saw 0:10:36.120 --> 0:10:39.880 last March, um, you know, and so that's really where 0:10:39.920 --> 0:10:42.040 it comes. I think. I think the problem you have 0:10:42.280 --> 0:10:50.240 is when monetary policy is extraordinarily easy, you get a 0:10:50.280 --> 0:10:55.040 lot of a lot of that money flows into incredibly speculative, 0:10:55.720 --> 0:10:59.720 not necessarily particularly productive assets. I'll call it a flight 0:10:59.760 --> 0:11:03.000 to rap for lack of a better word. And I 0:11:03.040 --> 0:11:06.680 think that as part of this, you know, if you own, 0:11:07.160 --> 0:11:09.800 if you own the really the stuff that's way out 0:11:09.800 --> 0:11:12.840 there on the risk curve, that's where you're that's where 0:11:12.880 --> 0:11:15.720 your most susceptible to to the to the bigger draw down. 0:11:16.200 --> 0:11:18.440 I do like to think that we that the vast 0:11:18.480 --> 0:11:22.720 majority of Americans will end up in better shape as 0:11:22.720 --> 0:11:26.000 a result of all the things you said, But inevitably 0:11:26.080 --> 0:11:28.320 there will be there will be some who got out 0:11:28.360 --> 0:11:33.200 way over their skis, and and it's gonna stay. I 0:11:33.240 --> 0:11:35.800 think we have our headline with flight to crap. What 0:11:35.840 --> 0:11:47.480 do you think I like it, Steve, I'm actually working 0:11:47.520 --> 0:11:49.600 on a story that touches on a bit of that, 0:11:49.679 --> 0:11:52.920 where uh, as you know, I cover cryptocurrencies as well, 0:11:52.960 --> 0:11:55.800 and when I'm talking to people, a lot of them say, well, 0:11:55.800 --> 0:11:58.200 there is just so much money in the system. You 0:11:58.320 --> 0:12:01.559 had people receiving the stimilar as checks during the pandemic, 0:12:01.920 --> 0:12:04.240 and so it just makes sense that you would see 0:12:04.240 --> 0:12:08.720 even some of these, like smaller alternative cryptocurrencies gaining. I 0:12:08.760 --> 0:12:10.760 wrote a story about n f t s. Some of 0:12:10.800 --> 0:12:14.560 them are put droopling in price over just a couple 0:12:14.600 --> 0:12:17.200 of days. So I know you. I did my homework. 0:12:17.240 --> 0:12:20.920 I know you. You have written about blockchain technology recently. 0:12:21.000 --> 0:12:23.560 So I'm wondering if all of that makes sense to you, 0:12:23.679 --> 0:12:26.480 or if maybe you're seeing something else where you describe 0:12:26.480 --> 0:12:30.719 it a bit differently. Well, you know, those of us 0:12:30.720 --> 0:12:33.960 who those of us who can reference eighties movies I've seen. 0:12:34.040 --> 0:12:36.880 I've seen this movie before, which was the late nineties 0:12:37.720 --> 0:12:41.560 where you were you had, you know, the advent of 0:12:41.600 --> 0:12:46.199 the new technology being the Internet, and you know, and 0:12:46.200 --> 0:12:49.079 and I'll use blockchain as an analogy to that, and 0:12:49.160 --> 0:12:52.920 the blockchain. We don't know what blockchain is capable of, 0:12:53.320 --> 0:12:56.200 just as the you know, the original internet um was 0:12:56.280 --> 0:12:59.320 basically just a way to send messages, you know, around 0:12:59.360 --> 0:13:02.520 so effective. It was just an email protocol, and now 0:13:02.640 --> 0:13:05.120 it's so much more, um, you know, and it's it's 0:13:05.280 --> 0:13:10.719 it's pervaded all aspects of our life. Um. And the 0:13:10.760 --> 0:13:14.240 problem that I have is, you know, not all the 0:13:14.240 --> 0:13:17.880 the Internet was a huge winner. The Internet bubble was 0:13:17.880 --> 0:13:20.800 was clearly a bubble in hindsight, the result of you know, 0:13:20.840 --> 0:13:23.599 the result of an easy of an easy fed, particularly 0:13:23.600 --> 0:13:25.800 super turbo charged at the end by the y t 0:13:25.960 --> 0:13:28.840 K problem and then sort of you know, came apart 0:13:28.880 --> 0:13:30.960 when when the fed, when the fed withdrew some of 0:13:30.960 --> 0:13:34.720 that liquidity. Um. And that's why I wrote earlier this 0:13:34.800 --> 0:13:40.160 week about um, you know, is bitcoin Cisco? Is it 0:13:40.320 --> 0:13:42.600 pets dot com? What what is it? You know? And 0:13:42.640 --> 0:13:45.440 I would argue that, you know, doge coin is probably 0:13:45.480 --> 0:13:48.959 more like pets dot com, where it's just clearly what 0:13:49.240 --> 0:13:51.280 are these people doing? They know it's a joke, They've 0:13:51.280 --> 0:13:54.600 admitted it's a joke. Every you know, except that there 0:13:54.640 --> 0:13:58.839 are you know, a couple of very prominent billionaires who 0:13:58.960 --> 0:14:01.080 say the right thing is when it when it needs 0:14:01.120 --> 0:14:03.520 to go up every so often. And I'll leave them 0:14:03.600 --> 0:14:07.920 nameless so I don't get sued. But um, but that's 0:14:07.960 --> 0:14:10.920 really you know, and my analogy I kind of do 0:14:11.040 --> 0:14:14.360 the takeaway of, you know, some of the cryptocurrencies will 0:14:14.400 --> 0:14:17.640 be something, will be Amazon, you know, and it will 0:14:17.720 --> 0:14:19.400 just be this huge winner, and it may not be 0:14:19.480 --> 0:14:21.400 what we think it is. If I had to put 0:14:21.400 --> 0:14:22.920 my money on one day, it's probably either or not 0:14:23.400 --> 0:14:26.400 ethere I'm sorry, And I actually do not own any 0:14:26.440 --> 0:14:29.480 cryptos right now. So um, and so that would probably 0:14:29.480 --> 0:14:32.040 be the long term winner. I think. I think bitcoin 0:14:32.200 --> 0:14:36.480 my analogy of Cisco, which was the Internet would not 0:14:36.680 --> 0:14:40.480 exist without Cisco, you know, with all the switches, the wires, etcetera. 0:14:40.560 --> 0:14:43.760 And the market the market got that part right, except 0:14:43.800 --> 0:14:46.960 for the fact that they wildly overpriced it and it 0:14:47.080 --> 0:14:50.160 never you know, never really recovered from from those from 0:14:50.160 --> 0:14:53.280 those bubble days, and so and so that's the problem. 0:14:53.320 --> 0:14:55.320 And so that you know, and and so and once 0:14:55.320 --> 0:14:58.360 you start really getting into the permutations, who's got the 0:14:58.360 --> 0:14:59.920 money for n f t s. Well, the money for 0:15:00.040 --> 0:15:01.560 n f t s comes from the people who made 0:15:01.560 --> 0:15:03.520 the money in crypto, and so now they're looking for 0:15:03.560 --> 0:15:06.120 something else to put it in. Um. This is that's 0:15:06.160 --> 0:15:09.280 like literally the epitome of too much money chasing too 0:15:09.360 --> 0:15:13.120 few goods. Another thing I often hear is exactly what 0:15:13.120 --> 0:15:16.960 you're describing. Where the money is moving maybe from some 0:15:17.040 --> 0:15:21.560 of the original or bigger cryptocurrencies towards smaller cryptocurrencies, towards 0:15:21.600 --> 0:15:24.800 defied towards n f t s, but then also meme stocks. 0:15:25.280 --> 0:15:27.960 And I know we saw a resurgence in some of 0:15:27.960 --> 0:15:31.320 the meme stocks this week. What are you seeing there 0:15:31.520 --> 0:15:36.000 and what do we make of the continued uh in 0:15:36.000 --> 0:15:40.680 investment and interest on the part of retail traders UM. 0:15:40.720 --> 0:15:43.040 You know, it's interesting because we you know, we do 0:15:43.440 --> 0:15:46.880 keep track of what our customers are, you know, are 0:15:46.920 --> 0:15:50.920 sort of our most actively involved in an AMC has 0:15:50.960 --> 0:15:53.320 been at or near the top of that list for weeks, 0:15:53.800 --> 0:15:55.800 you know, sort of the top five, top ten. So 0:15:56.120 --> 0:16:00.760 the meme stocks never really went away. I have sort 0:16:00.800 --> 0:16:03.960 of put forth the idea that there's a rotation that 0:16:04.000 --> 0:16:07.640 goes on between meme stocks and crypto and I think 0:16:07.640 --> 0:16:11.080 it was very interesting that the day that UM bitcoin 0:16:11.200 --> 0:16:14.080 pulled back from the fifty level was the day that 0:16:14.080 --> 0:16:17.720 that the meme stocks returned UM you know, and had 0:16:17.720 --> 0:16:20.000 their flash. I think a lot of what goes on 0:16:20.720 --> 0:16:23.880 in either event is just you know, the sellers walk away, 0:16:24.240 --> 0:16:27.280 you know, if you're how many times if you're you know, 0:16:27.280 --> 0:16:30.480 if you're a market maker, whether it's stock or options 0:16:30.560 --> 0:16:32.920 or just you know, a two sided trader, if you 0:16:33.000 --> 0:16:36.080 see that at this point you've come to notice that 0:16:36.160 --> 0:16:38.200 if there's the freight train coming in g M E 0:16:38.360 --> 0:16:41.920 or a M C or any of those things, Um, 0:16:42.000 --> 0:16:44.720 you know, I'm out of here. I'm stepping back. I'm 0:16:44.760 --> 0:16:48.160 really cutting back. One of one of the little market 0:16:48.160 --> 0:16:50.320 maker tricks, which I can now talk about since I'm 0:16:50.360 --> 0:16:53.320 not actively market making, is you know, one of the 0:16:53.400 --> 0:16:55.720 things when when your market making is we used to 0:16:55.760 --> 0:16:58.000 have a sign up and it was, you know, more 0:16:58.040 --> 0:17:01.840 or less when it gets bad, reduce size, widen widen 0:17:01.920 --> 0:17:04.520 markets and reduced sizes. Well, what does that mean? That 0:17:04.560 --> 0:17:07.560 means you're providing less liquidity at every given tick, and 0:17:07.600 --> 0:17:10.840 so you hit these liquidity air pockets in the meme 0:17:10.920 --> 0:17:15.119 stocks because everybody because it's self reinforcing behavior. And so 0:17:15.160 --> 0:17:17.399 I do think though, going back to your question, I 0:17:17.400 --> 0:17:20.560 think I think you do see it's it's if not 0:17:20.640 --> 0:17:23.200 the same cast of characters, it's it's a similar cast 0:17:23.240 --> 0:17:25.600 of characters. And and and actually what it means to 0:17:25.600 --> 0:17:28.119 me is there's probably a fairly fine heite amount of 0:17:28.160 --> 0:17:31.080 money that's being allocated from one to the next, and 0:17:31.119 --> 0:17:33.320 so I do think they rotate from one to the other. 0:17:33.560 --> 0:17:37.520 I think it's quite telling that other than Robin Hood, 0:17:37.520 --> 0:17:40.639 we don't really have any new lasting additions to the 0:17:40.680 --> 0:17:42.840 memes stock to my meme stock page. And yes, I 0:17:42.920 --> 0:17:45.000 do have a meme stock page on my market minder, 0:17:45.640 --> 0:17:49.000 um as I'm sure you do too at this point. Um, 0:17:49.040 --> 0:17:51.679 you know, other than Robin Hood, which which essentially is 0:17:51.800 --> 0:17:54.520 the you know, I use the Cisco. The Internet wouldn't 0:17:54.520 --> 0:17:56.240 exist without Cisco, it's not I'm not sure that the 0:17:56.600 --> 0:17:59.800 meme stock bubble would exist without Robin Hood. Um. And 0:18:00.040 --> 0:18:02.720 so you know, they're integral to it. But beyond that, 0:18:02.800 --> 0:18:05.119 it's not like there's this new class of stocks that 0:18:05.200 --> 0:18:08.720 developed memes and and I find that there's a lot 0:18:08.720 --> 0:18:11.159 of fragility there because these are they now in some 0:18:11.240 --> 0:18:14.919 cases have huge market caps relative to the business that 0:18:14.920 --> 0:18:20.359 that that underlies them. And you know, it's it's I 0:18:21.080 --> 0:18:23.000 fear that you get to a moment where it's like, 0:18:23.040 --> 0:18:25.399 you know, Wiley coyote chasing the road runner and he 0:18:25.480 --> 0:18:27.800 runs off the cliff and he still keeps running, but 0:18:27.840 --> 0:18:30.560 at some point, like he looks down and you know, 0:18:31.040 --> 0:18:33.919 down he goes. And I'm not I'm not wishing that, 0:18:34.000 --> 0:18:38.320 I'm not predicting that. But it's the longer you stay 0:18:38.359 --> 0:18:42.480 it really really high valuations relative to relative to fundamentals, 0:18:42.920 --> 0:18:46.840 the greater the likelihood that that could happen. We're gonna 0:18:46.880 --> 0:18:49.600 put the road Runner on Bildonna's list to it too 0:18:49.640 --> 0:18:53.800 as well. But it's a shame to me, Steve to 0:18:53.880 --> 0:18:57.960 hear you say that these stocks are on the heavy 0:18:58.040 --> 0:19:01.560 volume list. For you guys, it's because I picture I 0:19:01.680 --> 0:19:04.440 d k our clients to be. I don't know more 0:19:04.520 --> 0:19:07.920 of the professional sophisticated set than say it's say a 0:19:08.040 --> 0:19:11.480 Robin hood, which leads me to believe, I mean people 0:19:11.520 --> 0:19:14.040 are trying to figure out even the pros I guess 0:19:14.040 --> 0:19:17.800 they're trying to figure out what to do with these things. Um. 0:19:17.920 --> 0:19:21.040 And you know, forgot like you who has a background 0:19:21.040 --> 0:19:25.680 and now goo trading. Um, how does an awgo sort 0:19:25.720 --> 0:19:29.440 of trained brain approach these things? And I know there's 0:19:29.480 --> 0:19:31.359 been a lot of work done to try to sort 0:19:31.359 --> 0:19:34.800 of quantify the sentiment on social media and that sort 0:19:34.800 --> 0:19:37.960 of thing is that is that the main focus of 0:19:37.960 --> 0:19:40.440 sort of anyone trying to trade these from a quant 0:19:40.480 --> 0:19:43.240 or an algo type of perspective is is trying to 0:19:43.680 --> 0:19:46.200 you know, not have to read every post on Reddit, 0:19:46.200 --> 0:19:49.040 but try to somehow quantify what's going on. I think 0:19:49.040 --> 0:19:50.920 that's that's one way to do it, is try to 0:19:51.040 --> 0:19:52.840 quantify it and see if you can see if you 0:19:52.840 --> 0:19:55.919 can you know, read in sentiment. It requires a bit 0:19:55.920 --> 0:19:59.080 of natural language processing, which some people are better at 0:19:59.080 --> 0:20:03.560 than others. And the simplest algory, of course, is just momentum, 0:20:03.680 --> 0:20:07.240 you know, trend following and seeing that um, you know, 0:20:07.320 --> 0:20:11.600 which which um you know is there volume? I might 0:20:11.640 --> 0:20:14.880 seem volume accumulating at higher and higher prices, which leads 0:20:14.880 --> 0:20:16.920 me to believe that that that the freight train might 0:20:16.960 --> 0:20:20.320 be might be gaining steam. Um. And at what point, 0:20:20.400 --> 0:20:21.960 you know, or at what point does it seem like 0:20:22.000 --> 0:20:24.480 the volume is petered out? I will say the half 0:20:24.520 --> 0:20:28.639 life of the meme rallies seems to be shrinking. Um, 0:20:28.680 --> 0:20:31.919 you know, we're the one that we saw earlier this 0:20:31.960 --> 0:20:34.840 week kind of petered out relatively quickly, did They didn't 0:20:34.840 --> 0:20:37.359 give back everything, but they just sort of it was 0:20:37.400 --> 0:20:40.040 a one day wonder rather than rather than a lasting 0:20:40.080 --> 0:20:44.000 for any period of time. Um, you know. The but 0:20:44.000 --> 0:20:46.800 but also also in your question, it's sort of implied 0:20:46.880 --> 0:20:48.960 that you know, you're surprised that a lot of the 0:20:49.040 --> 0:20:52.080 customers are doing this, but we have, we do. I 0:20:52.119 --> 0:20:55.320 would say that we have a more sophisticated customer base 0:20:55.640 --> 0:20:58.080 than than average. You know, I think a lot of times, 0:20:58.800 --> 0:21:00.720 even though we have a high retail component, most of 0:21:00.720 --> 0:21:04.360 our accounts are in fact UM some sort of institutional 0:21:04.560 --> 0:21:07.320 in terms of money, certainly some sort of institutional or 0:21:07.320 --> 0:21:13.960 professional UM. And you know what their traders and traders 0:21:14.000 --> 0:21:17.520 trade where where the action is UM. You know, back 0:21:17.520 --> 0:21:20.439 in the old days of the option floors, you know, 0:21:20.480 --> 0:21:24.239 the people would come and go UM to you know, 0:21:24.280 --> 0:21:26.119 to the pits that had the active that had the 0:21:26.160 --> 0:21:28.600 active names. You know, in this case you don't have 0:21:28.680 --> 0:21:31.760 to physically move from one place to the next UM. 0:21:31.880 --> 0:21:36.520 But you know, people people follow the action. And I 0:21:36.560 --> 0:21:40.119 think that's whether that's professional or retail. I mean, if 0:21:40.119 --> 0:21:43.800 you're buying, if you're buy and hold investor, yeah, obviously 0:21:43.840 --> 0:21:46.640 you're not, you're not chasing these things. But if you're, 0:21:46.680 --> 0:21:50.200 if you've got any sort of trading mentality, there's there's 0:21:51.119 --> 0:21:53.240 that's where the volatility is, that's where the money is, 0:21:53.320 --> 0:21:56.000 and that's where the that's where the that's where the 0:21:56.000 --> 0:21:58.440 action tends to follow, and that's where the volume tends 0:21:58.480 --> 0:22:02.600 to follow. Steven. Another one of your notes recently, you 0:22:02.680 --> 0:22:06.320 wrote about something called Tina fomo and I think this 0:22:06.320 --> 0:22:08.560 this all sort of ties together. I'm hoping you can 0:22:08.640 --> 0:22:12.159 sort of break down what what exactly that means, because 0:22:12.480 --> 0:22:16.080 it's a mingling of two very popular acronyms. Right. I 0:22:16.119 --> 0:22:18.399