1 00:00:00,720 --> 00:00:04,360 Speaker 1: Your tunes about Drive on Home of the Black and 2 00:00:04,440 --> 00:00:19,960 Speaker 1: Goals Steelers Nation Radio. Welcome back to the Drive. I'm 3 00:00:20,040 --> 00:00:22,599 Speaker 1: dale ally here with Matt Williamson. Will pleased to be 4 00:00:22,720 --> 00:00:26,960 Speaker 1: joined now by uh somebody from Football Outsiders. Uh they 5 00:00:27,000 --> 00:00:30,400 Speaker 1: do the yearly almanac. That would be Mike just came out. Yeah, yeah, 6 00:00:30,480 --> 00:00:32,800 Speaker 1: just I just came out, and I'm very excited. That's 7 00:00:32,840 --> 00:00:35,280 Speaker 1: a lot of reading there that Matt and I have 8 00:00:35,360 --> 00:00:37,800 Speaker 1: been doing over the last week or so since. Like, 9 00:00:38,159 --> 00:00:40,080 Speaker 1: my favorite part of summer, to be honest with you, 10 00:00:40,400 --> 00:00:43,640 Speaker 1: is when the almanac comes out. I've read everyone probably 11 00:00:43,640 --> 00:00:45,600 Speaker 1: for twenty years in a row now, I think even 12 00:00:45,640 --> 00:00:48,440 Speaker 1: before maybe everyone's ever been out to be honest with you. 13 00:00:48,920 --> 00:00:51,040 Speaker 1: And I'm knocking out, I don't know, four teams a 14 00:00:51,120 --> 00:00:53,760 Speaker 1: day and really concentrating on him, give or take. And 15 00:00:54,520 --> 00:00:56,240 Speaker 1: I've heard Mike have heard a lot of you guys 16 00:00:56,440 --> 00:00:59,480 Speaker 1: doing the podcast tours and talking about things if you 17 00:00:59,560 --> 00:01:01,240 Speaker 1: popped up. So it's great to talk to again. Man. 18 00:01:02,200 --> 00:01:04,160 Speaker 1: It's great to talk a little football, and it's great 19 00:01:04,200 --> 00:01:07,080 Speaker 1: to talk a little almanac. Yeah, it's law. It's heavy. 20 00:01:07,080 --> 00:01:09,280 Speaker 1: I'm holding it right down my hand. It's as heavy 21 00:01:09,319 --> 00:01:12,560 Speaker 1: as ever, but it is chock full of knowledge real quick. 22 00:01:12,560 --> 00:01:14,240 Speaker 1: I just want to mention this to the people too 23 00:01:14,280 --> 00:01:16,480 Speaker 1: that I mean, obviously you're aware, but the Almanacs a 24 00:01:16,480 --> 00:01:19,640 Speaker 1: little different this year with how you guys presented it. 25 00:01:19,840 --> 00:01:23,200 Speaker 1: So when I bought it, you can now click on 26 00:01:23,280 --> 00:01:25,760 Speaker 1: each team and read them separately, as opposed to a 27 00:01:25,800 --> 00:01:28,880 Speaker 1: giant PDF file or you know, the print out or whatever. 28 00:01:28,959 --> 00:01:32,360 Speaker 1: So it's a little more digestible. I like that. I'm 29 00:01:32,400 --> 00:01:34,959 Speaker 1: glad you like it. Yeah, we entered the twenty teams here. 30 00:01:35,000 --> 00:01:37,959 Speaker 1: Where in the past you could get a hardcover where 31 00:01:37,959 --> 00:01:40,479 Speaker 1: you've got a giant pds, and giant pds are great, 32 00:01:40,520 --> 00:01:42,840 Speaker 1: but you know they have drawbacks. Now when you buy it, 33 00:01:42,880 --> 00:01:45,440 Speaker 1: you buy it online, you click the team, and the 34 00:01:45,440 --> 00:01:47,440 Speaker 1: team pops up in it looks like a beautiful chapter. 35 00:01:47,600 --> 00:01:50,200 Speaker 1: Looks great on tablets, looks great on phones of course, 36 00:01:50,240 --> 00:01:52,160 Speaker 1: looks great on your screen as well. So it's a 37 00:01:52,200 --> 00:01:54,440 Speaker 1: little more easy to navigate this year. And we're pretty 38 00:01:54,480 --> 00:01:57,160 Speaker 1: proud of that. Like a lot of good stuff in 39 00:01:57,160 --> 00:02:00,200 Speaker 1: there on the Steelers, a lot of information and I 40 00:02:00,240 --> 00:02:02,960 Speaker 1: went over and I think verbatim last week and just 41 00:02:03,040 --> 00:02:06,640 Speaker 1: kind of throwing some of the stats out there. Uh, 42 00:02:06,760 --> 00:02:09,079 Speaker 1: a lot of people around the league seemed to be 43 00:02:09,160 --> 00:02:13,600 Speaker 1: down on Pittsburgh and yet very high on the Browns. 44 00:02:13,639 --> 00:02:15,360 Speaker 1: And and I'm I'm looking at it. When I was 45 00:02:15,360 --> 00:02:17,600 Speaker 1: looking at the almanac, I'm like, you guys are a 46 00:02:17,600 --> 00:02:21,360 Speaker 1: little less bullish on the Browns. Not that you're super 47 00:02:21,440 --> 00:02:24,480 Speaker 1: high on the Steelers, but I think everybody's looking at that. 48 00:02:24,760 --> 00:02:26,800 Speaker 1: I see a lot of stuff saying they're the you know, 49 00:02:26,880 --> 00:02:28,760 Speaker 1: third best team in the league, they're the you know, 50 00:02:28,800 --> 00:02:30,840 Speaker 1: they're the clear class of you know, one of the 51 00:02:30,840 --> 00:02:33,280 Speaker 1: top teams in the NFL. And you guys don't come 52 00:02:33,320 --> 00:02:36,200 Speaker 1: down on that that way, not at all. And I 53 00:02:36,240 --> 00:02:38,760 Speaker 1: think it's very trendy. And people look at how the 54 00:02:38,840 --> 00:02:41,200 Speaker 1: season ended, and of course how the playoffs went, it's 55 00:02:41,200 --> 00:02:44,280 Speaker 1: like Browns are trending up, Heelers are trending down. One 56 00:02:44,360 --> 00:02:46,920 Speaker 1: team's got an old quarterback, one team's got a young quarterback, 57 00:02:47,120 --> 00:02:49,239 Speaker 1: and it's easy to flip flop them, and it's tempting 58 00:02:49,280 --> 00:02:52,120 Speaker 1: to do so. Well, you know, football outsiders, we crunch 59 00:02:52,200 --> 00:02:53,840 Speaker 1: the numbers and looked at a couple of things and 60 00:02:53,880 --> 00:02:55,639 Speaker 1: look at a lot of things, and one of them 61 00:02:55,639 --> 00:02:59,040 Speaker 1: with the Browns is they're turning over almost their entire defense. 62 00:02:59,080 --> 00:03:01,040 Speaker 1: If you look at the Browns defense, eight or nine 63 00:03:01,080 --> 00:03:03,120 Speaker 1: new starters, and some of them are great ball players. 64 00:03:03,120 --> 00:03:05,200 Speaker 1: You know, Josh Johnson is a good ball player, etcetera. 65 00:03:05,680 --> 00:03:08,280 Speaker 1: That doesn't bode well for their defense. Now he comes 66 00:03:08,320 --> 00:03:10,360 Speaker 1: to the other side and the Steelers, and yeah, we 67 00:03:10,360 --> 00:03:12,640 Speaker 1: can we I'm sure we'll talk about about Big Ben 68 00:03:12,639 --> 00:03:15,320 Speaker 1: and all. Defense is still projected to be number one 69 00:03:15,600 --> 00:03:17,680 Speaker 1: in the NFL, and what number one in the NFL 70 00:03:17,760 --> 00:03:20,440 Speaker 1: by a pretty decent margin, and the best pass rush 71 00:03:20,440 --> 00:03:23,440 Speaker 1: in the NFL. And there wasn't that much turnover. And 72 00:03:23,600 --> 00:03:25,280 Speaker 1: we just had some news today, so some of the 73 00:03:25,360 --> 00:03:27,760 Speaker 1: turnover did happen. You lose, but to pray. Now you 74 00:03:27,840 --> 00:03:30,600 Speaker 1: bring Ingram in, so you have a team that you know, 75 00:03:31,320 --> 00:03:35,119 Speaker 1: in the Steelers is going to consistently have that excellent defense. 76 00:03:35,320 --> 00:03:37,720 Speaker 1: The Browns are doing more of a projection factor in 77 00:03:37,760 --> 00:03:39,880 Speaker 1: the other things. And I believe we have we have 78 00:03:39,920 --> 00:03:42,320 Speaker 1: the Steelers, I believe ahead of the Browns in our projections. 79 00:03:43,360 --> 00:03:46,800 Speaker 1: And one thing I've learned from football outsiders over the 80 00:03:46,880 --> 00:03:49,240 Speaker 1: years that I believe in, but I don't think it 81 00:03:49,280 --> 00:03:52,560 Speaker 1: really holds true with this team is offense is a 82 00:03:52,600 --> 00:03:56,040 Speaker 1: lot more predictable year to year than defense. I just 83 00:03:56,080 --> 00:03:58,040 Speaker 1: don't know that that's true for the Steelers this year. 84 00:03:59,160 --> 00:04:01,800 Speaker 1: It's tricky, but most of our projections are similar to 85 00:04:01,800 --> 00:04:04,040 Speaker 1: what we saw last year. You know, take that kind 86 00:04:04,040 --> 00:04:06,800 Speaker 1: of roller coaster ride and spread it out across a 87 00:04:06,960 --> 00:04:10,240 Speaker 1: season little more normally, and that's what we see. I mean, 88 00:04:10,240 --> 00:04:13,240 Speaker 1: we see the Steelers this year with Roethlisberger going back 89 00:04:13,480 --> 00:04:16,200 Speaker 1: to a degree to that quick passing game. I know 90 00:04:16,279 --> 00:04:18,240 Speaker 1: they have a new coordinator in the coordinator likes to 91 00:04:18,279 --> 00:04:20,920 Speaker 1: emphasize play action and some other things that I think 92 00:04:21,080 --> 00:04:23,760 Speaker 1: will benefit the Steelers. But you know, because there's so 93 00:04:23,760 --> 00:04:26,760 Speaker 1: many questions on the offensive line, it looks like it's 94 00:04:26,760 --> 00:04:29,799 Speaker 1: gonna be still those short passes get a lot of acts, 95 00:04:29,880 --> 00:04:31,440 Speaker 1: or the short passes get a lot of yachts. But 96 00:04:31,520 --> 00:04:33,920 Speaker 1: you can still be successful at that, and Roethlisberger can 97 00:04:33,920 --> 00:04:36,560 Speaker 1: still be successful with that. You get a few less 98 00:04:36,600 --> 00:04:39,279 Speaker 1: drop passes, which you almost have to get less drop passes. 99 00:04:39,920 --> 00:04:42,159 Speaker 1: You get up as from having Nagy Harris in there, 100 00:04:42,360 --> 00:04:44,440 Speaker 1: and it comes up to an offense that, even if 101 00:04:44,440 --> 00:04:47,039 Speaker 1: it's maybe not as great as the offense looked a 102 00:04:47,040 --> 00:04:49,560 Speaker 1: few times early in the season, but not as terrible 103 00:04:49,640 --> 00:04:51,320 Speaker 1: as it looks late in the season against some of 104 00:04:51,320 --> 00:04:54,159 Speaker 1: those opponents, and it balances out to one that should 105 00:04:54,240 --> 00:04:57,920 Speaker 1: be able to uh to complement the defense and win 106 00:04:58,080 --> 00:05:00,520 Speaker 1: some games, you know, twenty two to six. You think 107 00:05:00,920 --> 00:05:03,240 Speaker 1: things like that when they get the boost from that defense, 108 00:05:03,320 --> 00:05:05,560 Speaker 1: and that's all the Steelers need to be a playoff team. 109 00:05:05,680 --> 00:05:08,240 Speaker 1: Maybe not a Super Bowl contender, but a playoff team. 110 00:05:08,520 --> 00:05:11,159 Speaker 1: Our guess is Mike Daniel from Football Outsiders, And Mike, 111 00:05:11,400 --> 00:05:14,920 Speaker 1: you mentioned Naja Harris. Obviously, he's been a big topic 112 00:05:15,000 --> 00:05:18,640 Speaker 1: here in Pittsburgh even before the draft. You know, you've 113 00:05:18,680 --> 00:05:20,560 Speaker 1: heard a lot of people saying you can't use a 114 00:05:20,640 --> 00:05:25,240 Speaker 1: first round draft pick on a running back, but if 115 00:05:25,279 --> 00:05:28,599 Speaker 1: you don't have a running back who's capable of carrying 116 00:05:28,600 --> 00:05:31,760 Speaker 1: the load. You know, in this year's draft, I know, 117 00:05:31,800 --> 00:05:33,440 Speaker 1: Matt and I was, you know, we we broke down 118 00:05:33,440 --> 00:05:37,320 Speaker 1: the draft a lot, and there weren't It just wasn't 119 00:05:37,400 --> 00:05:40,279 Speaker 1: your typical draft for running backs. Where did you guys 120 00:05:40,279 --> 00:05:42,400 Speaker 1: come down on the on the selection of Naja Harris 121 00:05:42,720 --> 00:05:47,359 Speaker 1: at that spot. For it's a dubious choice because you know, 122 00:05:47,440 --> 00:05:51,120 Speaker 1: the reinforcements on the offensive line, especially with guys retired 123 00:05:51,200 --> 00:05:53,839 Speaker 1: later on, that would have been a better option, usually 124 00:05:53,839 --> 00:05:56,240 Speaker 1: going for edge rusher, which the Steelers do a lot, 125 00:05:56,320 --> 00:05:59,680 Speaker 1: drafting edge rushers. Going for the secondaries almost always a 126 00:05:59,720 --> 00:06:02,599 Speaker 1: smart removed. And then you have to either running back. 127 00:06:02,680 --> 00:06:05,960 Speaker 1: Obviously it's something that you can address, third, fourth, fifth round. 128 00:06:05,960 --> 00:06:08,080 Speaker 1: And I think you're right, this was a dinner running 129 00:06:08,080 --> 00:06:10,760 Speaker 1: back draft. But you know, despite that, you can get 130 00:06:10,800 --> 00:06:13,000 Speaker 1: two or three guys in later rounds having to compete 131 00:06:13,000 --> 00:06:16,440 Speaker 1: and come up with something that said, J Harris is 132 00:06:16,480 --> 00:06:19,560 Speaker 1: what he looks like, and well, it's it's tricky to 133 00:06:19,680 --> 00:06:21,800 Speaker 1: draft a running back in the first round. There's reasons 134 00:06:21,800 --> 00:06:23,600 Speaker 1: not to do it. At least you do get their 135 00:06:23,600 --> 00:06:25,320 Speaker 1: best seasons. You know you're gonna get those two or 136 00:06:25,320 --> 00:06:27,719 Speaker 1: three years while he should frashed before he gets injured, 137 00:06:27,800 --> 00:06:30,240 Speaker 1: et cetera. And he looks like the guy who could 138 00:06:30,279 --> 00:06:31,840 Speaker 1: be that guy. He looks like the kind of guy 139 00:06:31,920 --> 00:06:34,400 Speaker 1: who can catch some passes out of the back field, 140 00:06:34,640 --> 00:06:36,760 Speaker 1: be a power runner between the tackles, do all the 141 00:06:36,800 --> 00:06:39,880 Speaker 1: things you want us to do. So it's it's justifiable pick, 142 00:06:39,960 --> 00:06:42,760 Speaker 1: if not necessarily the most optimal pick. And my only 143 00:06:42,800 --> 00:06:44,360 Speaker 1: fear for Harold I think he's gonna be a heck 144 00:06:44,360 --> 00:06:46,360 Speaker 1: of a player. My only fear is he's gonna have 145 00:06:46,360 --> 00:06:48,039 Speaker 1: to break two tackles to get back to the line 146 00:06:48,040 --> 00:06:50,360 Speaker 1: of scrimmage. If that's the case, that's the problem for 147 00:06:50,440 --> 00:06:53,240 Speaker 1: the Steelers. Yeah, and we've talked about that a lot, 148 00:06:53,279 --> 00:06:56,000 Speaker 1: and there is a lot of uncertainty with the offensive line. 149 00:06:56,080 --> 00:06:58,360 Speaker 1: But there's been a couple of things really missing from 150 00:06:58,360 --> 00:07:01,640 Speaker 1: the running back position. Is short yardage has been a 151 00:07:01,640 --> 00:07:05,160 Speaker 1: real problem. I think Harris sells in that area. You 152 00:07:05,200 --> 00:07:08,159 Speaker 1: mentioned his receiving skills, which you know, Dial and I 153 00:07:08,200 --> 00:07:10,120 Speaker 1: were fortunate to see a little bit of a firsthand 154 00:07:10,120 --> 00:07:13,400 Speaker 1: at Mini camp. They're exceptional with a huge catching radios. 155 00:07:13,680 --> 00:07:16,800 Speaker 1: I just see a lot of leve Bell there. There's 156 00:07:16,800 --> 00:07:18,200 Speaker 1: a lot to live Bell, And I think you left 157 00:07:18,200 --> 00:07:22,000 Speaker 1: that explosive capability. Yeah, you know, I think Karter could 158 00:07:22,040 --> 00:07:24,280 Speaker 1: kept short passes. He was okay at that He was 159 00:07:24,320 --> 00:07:28,080 Speaker 1: a grinder. He had no explosive capability and the guys 160 00:07:28,120 --> 00:07:30,760 Speaker 1: behind him didn't too. And what do you really need 161 00:07:30,800 --> 00:07:34,080 Speaker 1: from running backs occasionally is from that breakaway potential. Le 162 00:07:34,320 --> 00:07:36,360 Speaker 1: Bell had it in both the passing game in the 163 00:07:36,400 --> 00:07:39,400 Speaker 1: Russian game when he was with the program, and you 164 00:07:39,480 --> 00:07:41,880 Speaker 1: can get that from him, and that's what you're looking 165 00:07:41,880 --> 00:07:45,080 Speaker 1: for hopefully, especially if you're doing short pass and yact 166 00:07:45,160 --> 00:07:47,840 Speaker 1: short pass in YAC, you can't have three point eight 167 00:07:47,920 --> 00:07:50,040 Speaker 1: yards per carry from your running back. He's got to 168 00:07:50,040 --> 00:07:51,960 Speaker 1: do the things and maybe you know the comparison is 169 00:07:52,000 --> 00:07:54,360 Speaker 1: to Derrick Henry. He's got to do the things Derrick 170 00:07:54,440 --> 00:07:56,760 Speaker 1: Henry does, which is getting to the open field, stiff 171 00:07:56,800 --> 00:07:59,200 Speaker 1: all mcguy out of the TV screen for you and 172 00:07:59,240 --> 00:08:02,320 Speaker 1: turn what would have been eight nine tan yards. I 173 00:08:02,360 --> 00:08:07,040 Speaker 1: think he does have that potential. Mike, you you mentioned 174 00:08:07,040 --> 00:08:11,040 Speaker 1: that the Steelers defense. Um, what does the signing of 175 00:08:11,080 --> 00:08:14,800 Speaker 1: Melvin Ingram do with this? Does this Does this make them? 176 00:08:14,920 --> 00:08:17,120 Speaker 1: I don't we don't know. I don't believe he's going 177 00:08:17,160 --> 00:08:20,360 Speaker 1: to be the clear cut starter. I believe they'll still 178 00:08:20,440 --> 00:08:26,120 Speaker 1: start Alex Highsmith there, but upgrading that backup position where 179 00:08:26,160 --> 00:08:30,000 Speaker 1: they had Quincy Rochet and and and Cassius Marsh behind 180 00:08:30,080 --> 00:08:34,400 Speaker 1: t J. Wash just does this Does this make them 181 00:08:34,400 --> 00:08:37,040 Speaker 1: a much more dangerous team? I mean it's already a 182 00:08:37,120 --> 00:08:40,400 Speaker 1: very dangerous pass rushing defense. And that's the thing that's 183 00:08:40,400 --> 00:08:42,920 Speaker 1: funny because I'm with parent shots right now. We're in Louisville, 184 00:08:43,000 --> 00:08:46,040 Speaker 1: Kentucky for a big press jumpet for the football outsiders 185 00:08:46,040 --> 00:08:48,480 Speaker 1: plman act and we're like, punch it in, let's do 186 00:08:48,520 --> 00:08:51,720 Speaker 1: the projections right now. And it didn't change the projection 187 00:08:51,840 --> 00:08:55,000 Speaker 1: very much at all. I think in Graman because the 188 00:08:55,040 --> 00:08:57,360 Speaker 1: skillers are ranked number one and they're projected to be 189 00:08:57,440 --> 00:08:59,320 Speaker 1: number one, and they're projected to be number one and 190 00:08:59,360 --> 00:09:02,200 Speaker 1: pass rush, so they went from number one to number 191 00:09:02,240 --> 00:09:04,400 Speaker 1: one with a bullet and I think they have you know, 192 00:09:04,440 --> 00:09:07,040 Speaker 1: we have a decent projection in for Heismith in there. 193 00:09:07,080 --> 00:09:09,640 Speaker 1: So what this does is it reinforces it. It makes 194 00:09:09,760 --> 00:09:12,640 Speaker 1: you more comfortable with that projection that once again this 195 00:09:12,679 --> 00:09:14,439 Speaker 1: team is going to be among the league readers and 196 00:09:14,520 --> 00:09:17,600 Speaker 1: sacks is going to create takeaways based on their pass pressure. 197 00:09:17,880 --> 00:09:20,160 Speaker 1: And you add somebody in there who maybe at this 198 00:09:20,240 --> 00:09:22,200 Speaker 1: point in his career and you're right, is a weave 199 00:09:22,360 --> 00:09:25,640 Speaker 1: player who comes in on third downs or passing downs. Well, 200 00:09:25,960 --> 00:09:30,600 Speaker 1: passing downs are sixty percent of nowadays. England can kind 201 00:09:30,600 --> 00:09:32,520 Speaker 1: of play on the inside. He can move around a 202 00:09:32,559 --> 00:09:36,000 Speaker 1: little bit. He's more versatile than the pre was. And 203 00:09:36,120 --> 00:09:38,400 Speaker 1: you know he had euro sacks last year, but he 204 00:09:38,440 --> 00:09:40,240 Speaker 1: had a ton of Harry's. He still gets that pressure, 205 00:09:40,320 --> 00:09:42,960 Speaker 1: so you just get more confidence saying the Feelers are 206 00:09:42,960 --> 00:09:45,000 Speaker 1: going to win a lot of games with a defense 207 00:09:45,200 --> 00:09:47,440 Speaker 1: this year, enough that you say you turn to the 208 00:09:47,440 --> 00:09:49,040 Speaker 1: offense and say, okay, now what is you going to 209 00:09:49,160 --> 00:09:51,520 Speaker 1: do to propel this team passed? You know, eight and 210 00:09:51,520 --> 00:09:54,680 Speaker 1: eight or eight nine or nine, any or whatever. Mike, 211 00:09:54,679 --> 00:09:56,520 Speaker 1: he did a lot of work. You did the Ravens 212 00:09:56,520 --> 00:09:59,839 Speaker 1: and Bengals chapters two, and I've read both those of 213 00:10:00,080 --> 00:10:02,160 Speaker 1: or started with the Steelers and then stuck in the North, 214 00:10:02,520 --> 00:10:05,640 Speaker 1: and I think the Bengals are really interesting. And my 215 00:10:05,679 --> 00:10:08,960 Speaker 1: first question about him was there a wrong answer between 216 00:10:09,040 --> 00:10:11,680 Speaker 1: Jamaar Chase and Penney sol. I mean, I feel like 217 00:10:11,880 --> 00:10:15,080 Speaker 1: either would have worked out just fine. I don't think 218 00:10:15,120 --> 00:10:17,280 Speaker 1: there was a wrong answer. I honestly think Sewell was 219 00:10:17,320 --> 00:10:20,400 Speaker 1: a better answer. You know, football outside his research says 220 00:10:20,440 --> 00:10:24,440 Speaker 1: that teams that draft an offensive lineman in the top ten, ten, fifteen, 221 00:10:24,840 --> 00:10:27,200 Speaker 1: they improved. That's a that's the way to improve. And 222 00:10:27,240 --> 00:10:29,840 Speaker 1: of course you protect the investment with Joe Barrow, and 223 00:10:30,120 --> 00:10:32,480 Speaker 1: I talked about a lot about that in the chapter 224 00:10:32,840 --> 00:10:35,360 Speaker 1: That's it. You can see a scenario where you put 225 00:10:35,400 --> 00:10:38,800 Speaker 1: Jamaar Chies out there with Tyler Boyd and Higgins and 226 00:10:39,040 --> 00:10:41,160 Speaker 1: they've got some other like receivers that you're four and 227 00:10:41,280 --> 00:10:44,880 Speaker 1: five and you're just gonna go empty backfield, attack, attack, attack, attack. 228 00:10:44,920 --> 00:10:47,280 Speaker 1: And they did add some pieces on the offensive line, 229 00:10:47,400 --> 00:10:50,800 Speaker 1: and you can see that offense being more explosive. So again, 230 00:10:50,840 --> 00:10:52,839 Speaker 1: there's no wrong answer. I think there was a better 231 00:10:52,920 --> 00:10:55,640 Speaker 1: answer that said, we we don't project much from the 232 00:10:55,640 --> 00:10:57,720 Speaker 1: Bengals this year. There's a still a team that so 233 00:10:57,800 --> 00:11:00,840 Speaker 1: many question marks on defense, they still has to swim 234 00:11:00,920 --> 00:11:03,880 Speaker 1: things out on the offensive lines, still have to find themselves, 235 00:11:03,920 --> 00:11:06,720 Speaker 1: and does not have a proven coach. Let's be honest, 236 00:11:06,720 --> 00:11:08,280 Speaker 1: we don't know really a for a couple of years 237 00:11:08,320 --> 00:11:10,439 Speaker 1: what we're looking for with Taylor that we don't we 238 00:11:10,520 --> 00:11:13,560 Speaker 1: still have them fourth overall. As interesting as Barrow makes them, 239 00:11:13,679 --> 00:11:16,120 Speaker 1: they're still last place projected. The last place it's in 240 00:11:16,120 --> 00:11:19,800 Speaker 1: a division. Our guess is Mike Danier from Football Outsiders 241 00:11:20,280 --> 00:11:22,400 Speaker 1: just if you get a chance to check out the 242 00:11:22,440 --> 00:11:26,520 Speaker 1: Football Almanac that they do, uh, just hundreds of pages 243 00:11:26,640 --> 00:11:30,360 Speaker 1: of really just in depth knowledge, great stats that you 244 00:11:30,360 --> 00:11:33,440 Speaker 1: can you can use, and and projections, the whole deal, 245 00:11:33,600 --> 00:11:37,320 Speaker 1: fantasy stuff. There's a little bit of everything in there. So, uh, Mike, 246 00:11:37,559 --> 00:11:40,719 Speaker 1: in terms of the overall landscape in the a f C. 247 00:11:41,920 --> 00:11:44,840 Speaker 1: How do you how do you rank that the teams 248 00:11:44,840 --> 00:11:48,120 Speaker 1: in the a f C the hierarchy right now, Well, 249 00:11:48,200 --> 00:11:52,000 Speaker 1: the almanac projections have the Chiefs, the Bills, and the 250 00:11:52,120 --> 00:11:55,559 Speaker 1: Ravens neck and nets at the top. I believe that, 251 00:11:55,679 --> 00:11:57,679 Speaker 1: I believe the order we have them in. Actually, I'm 252 00:11:57,679 --> 00:11:59,160 Speaker 1: not gonna say, because I don't have fun of me. 253 00:11:59,360 --> 00:12:04,240 Speaker 1: Those three have projections around eleven wins, so they're at 254 00:12:04,240 --> 00:12:06,440 Speaker 1: the top. They're all within like one tentsible win of 255 00:12:06,440 --> 00:12:09,000 Speaker 1: each other, and then there's a gap, and then there's 256 00:12:09,000 --> 00:12:12,160 Speaker 1: everybody else. And everybody else includes the Steelers, includes the Browns, 257 00:12:12,320 --> 00:12:15,000 Speaker 1: it includes the Patriots, I think some people might be 258 00:12:15,040 --> 00:12:17,760 Speaker 1: sleeping on, and it includes like the Colts and the Titans. 259 00:12:17,760 --> 00:12:19,960 Speaker 1: So there's not a lot of newcomers in there. But 260 00:12:20,240 --> 00:12:23,040 Speaker 1: I think that the projection system jobs with what a 261 00:12:23,080 --> 00:12:25,000 Speaker 1: lot of us think. Yeah, we talked a moment ago 262 00:12:25,000 --> 00:12:27,240 Speaker 1: about how people have the Browns projected up there. If 263 00:12:27,280 --> 00:12:29,120 Speaker 1: there's a lot of reasons to think while they're the Browns, 264 00:12:29,120 --> 00:12:31,880 Speaker 1: and that's not gonna happen. Those three teams are as 265 00:12:31,920 --> 00:12:34,080 Speaker 1: good as they claim to be, as good as they look, 266 00:12:34,200 --> 00:12:36,959 Speaker 1: you know, on paper, and that and then it becomes 267 00:12:36,960 --> 00:12:39,440 Speaker 1: a matter of the questions that we always asked. Okay, 268 00:12:39,440 --> 00:12:41,360 Speaker 1: I did the Chiefs do enough in the offensive line? 269 00:12:41,800 --> 00:12:43,760 Speaker 1: Josh Allen see for wheel, does that team have a 270 00:12:43,840 --> 00:12:46,240 Speaker 1: running game enough balance? And of course all the Lamar 271 00:12:46,400 --> 00:12:49,000 Speaker 1: jack Jackson questions. Those are what we're looking at the 272 00:12:49,040 --> 00:12:51,720 Speaker 1: a f C and not necessarily some newcomer piercing that 273 00:12:51,800 --> 00:12:55,120 Speaker 1: conversation real quick. On that note, I read the Bills 274 00:12:55,160 --> 00:12:59,440 Speaker 1: this morning, actually in they're a plexiglass candidate. Can you 275 00:12:59,480 --> 00:13:02,920 Speaker 1: kind of describe that means? Classics is when you make 276 00:13:02,960 --> 00:13:05,480 Speaker 1: a sudden leap forward, you tend to fall back a 277 00:13:05,480 --> 00:13:08,959 Speaker 1: little bit. You know. Career years are just that career years. 278 00:13:09,240 --> 00:13:11,839 Speaker 1: Maybe Josh Allens has proven he's one of these elite guys. 279 00:13:12,120 --> 00:13:14,720 Speaker 1: Maybe he showed improvement, but we saw the absolute best 280 00:13:14,800 --> 00:13:17,079 Speaker 1: Josh Allen the last year, not just the absolute best 281 00:13:17,160 --> 00:13:20,319 Speaker 1: Josh Allen, but the absolute best of their secondary et cetera. 282 00:13:20,600 --> 00:13:22,760 Speaker 1: So very team that could slide back to the pack 283 00:13:22,800 --> 00:13:25,360 Speaker 1: a little bit. That usually comes in contact with the 284 00:13:25,400 --> 00:13:28,000 Speaker 1: fact that the division does get a little stronger. The 285 00:13:28,000 --> 00:13:30,640 Speaker 1: Patriots look a little stronger this year, the Dolphins a 286 00:13:30,760 --> 00:13:32,920 Speaker 1: little bit stronger this year. We're not going to talk 287 00:13:32,960 --> 00:13:35,320 Speaker 1: about the Jets, So you put that in and those 288 00:13:35,320 --> 00:13:38,319 Speaker 1: things could have the bills falling back to Earth. That said, 289 00:13:38,360 --> 00:13:40,680 Speaker 1: with that in case, there's still among the elite teams 290 00:13:40,720 --> 00:13:43,480 Speaker 1: according to our projections. Yeah, I'm looking here actually at 291 00:13:43,520 --> 00:13:47,000 Speaker 1: your projective win totals. You do have Baltimore number two, 292 00:13:47,040 --> 00:13:50,480 Speaker 1: actually ahead of Casey. Yeah, yeah, yeah, but again if 293 00:13:50,480 --> 00:13:52,360 Speaker 1: you look as like a tentable week each, so the 294 00:13:52,520 --> 00:13:55,520 Speaker 1: tolerances aren't that great with our projectors, those are the 295 00:13:55,640 --> 00:13:58,400 Speaker 1: three teams to beat. One of the things that that 296 00:13:58,480 --> 00:14:00,400 Speaker 1: struck me when we were talking about and now we're 297 00:14:00,400 --> 00:14:02,600 Speaker 1: talking about this last week was again your projection for 298 00:14:02,640 --> 00:14:06,000 Speaker 1: the Patriots at nine point eight wins, that's actually fifth 299 00:14:06,000 --> 00:14:09,000 Speaker 1: most in the league. But one of the things that 300 00:14:09,080 --> 00:14:12,320 Speaker 1: jumped out to me about them was their schedule ranking 301 00:14:12,360 --> 00:14:15,200 Speaker 1: was thirty second. How much of a factors does that 302 00:14:15,240 --> 00:14:17,840 Speaker 1: playing at into it? And Mike interrupt real quick too, 303 00:14:17,880 --> 00:14:20,920 Speaker 1: because I heard Aaron on a podcast I forget which 304 00:14:20,920 --> 00:14:22,800 Speaker 1: one of you guys have been on so many he 305 00:14:22,920 --> 00:14:27,640 Speaker 1: compared the Steelers and Patriots very similarly. You know that 306 00:14:27,800 --> 00:14:30,360 Speaker 1: you guys have the defenses kind of hand in hand. 307 00:14:30,760 --> 00:14:33,920 Speaker 1: You have the offense is very similar, but New England 308 00:14:34,080 --> 00:14:36,200 Speaker 1: and Baltimore. This is something I cite all the time 309 00:14:36,240 --> 00:14:38,240 Speaker 1: on the show are always at the top of the 310 00:14:38,280 --> 00:14:41,480 Speaker 1: league and special teams, and as Dale mentioned, the schedule 311 00:14:41,680 --> 00:14:46,160 Speaker 1: difficulty of New England versus Pittsburgh is very, very the opposite, 312 00:14:46,240 --> 00:14:50,200 Speaker 1: really right right, So I mean the schedule difficulty really 313 00:14:50,200 --> 00:14:53,640 Speaker 1: weaves into the projections because what we do is simulations. 314 00:14:54,280 --> 00:14:56,440 Speaker 1: You know, if you do tend simulations and you get 315 00:14:56,440 --> 00:14:59,480 Speaker 1: two guineas against the Jets and you play a software division, 316 00:14:59,840 --> 00:15:02,000 Speaker 1: the Steelers benefits from that. Last year they had an 317 00:15:02,000 --> 00:15:04,960 Speaker 1: easy schedule because the NFC East fell apart, etcetera. So 318 00:15:05,440 --> 00:15:07,920 Speaker 1: that plays in doing one thing that the Patriots have 319 00:15:08,040 --> 00:15:10,080 Speaker 1: going for them. And this is why I love working 320 00:15:10,080 --> 00:15:13,160 Speaker 1: for Football Outsiders, because all we talked about was the 321 00:15:13,600 --> 00:15:16,040 Speaker 1: was the free agents. Oh look, they spent a lot 322 00:15:16,040 --> 00:15:19,000 Speaker 1: of money on Nelson, Agalor and John and Smith. And 323 00:15:19,040 --> 00:15:20,800 Speaker 1: I'm skeptical and I think a lot of people are 324 00:15:20,840 --> 00:15:23,320 Speaker 1: skeptical of that. You lose track of this factors. They're 325 00:15:23,320 --> 00:15:26,080 Speaker 1: getting tons of defenders back. They're getting guys who were 326 00:15:26,120 --> 00:15:28,920 Speaker 1: Super Bowl caliber defenders who are there twenty eight Team 327 00:15:29,360 --> 00:15:31,760 Speaker 1: nine team took a COVID opt out for a year 328 00:15:32,120 --> 00:15:34,520 Speaker 1: and are now returning or had an injury in our returning. 329 00:15:34,800 --> 00:15:37,000 Speaker 1: And when you put those guys back into their defense, 330 00:15:37,200 --> 00:15:40,000 Speaker 1: they go back to having a playoff caliber defense. Now 331 00:15:40,040 --> 00:15:43,040 Speaker 1: if you once you do that and say, okay, was 332 00:15:43,080 --> 00:15:45,200 Speaker 1: that free agent class terrible? No, it was a good 333 00:15:45,200 --> 00:15:47,440 Speaker 1: free agent class. They just spent a zillion dollars on 334 00:15:47,560 --> 00:15:50,600 Speaker 1: all these guys, but they're definitely upgrades. You put those 335 00:15:50,600 --> 00:15:53,000 Speaker 1: things together, you factor in a softer schedule, and you 336 00:15:53,040 --> 00:15:56,280 Speaker 1: have a Patriots team that could surprise, could jump up 337 00:15:56,320 --> 00:15:59,040 Speaker 1: there and be a better team than Cleveland, who's fashionable, 338 00:15:59,200 --> 00:16:01,160 Speaker 1: be a better team and the Dawson's who are still 339 00:16:01,160 --> 00:16:03,040 Speaker 1: trying to figure out what they have in their quarterback 340 00:16:03,080 --> 00:16:05,360 Speaker 1: and elsewhere. And that's could make the Patriots, of all 341 00:16:05,440 --> 00:16:09,000 Speaker 1: the things, a Patriots a stealth surprise team. It's shocking 342 00:16:09,080 --> 00:16:10,760 Speaker 1: to say that because of the Patriot, but that's what 343 00:16:10,800 --> 00:16:14,080 Speaker 1: they could be in Mike, was it tough to look 344 00:16:14,120 --> 00:16:16,720 Speaker 1: at those teams, the players that opted out last year 345 00:16:16,760 --> 00:16:18,840 Speaker 1: and kind of try to project what they're going to 346 00:16:18,880 --> 00:16:22,680 Speaker 1: be like coming back. Yeah? Yeah, I think what you 347 00:16:22,760 --> 00:16:24,240 Speaker 1: do is you put in on what we did, is 348 00:16:24,280 --> 00:16:26,640 Speaker 1: we put them in. There's an age aggression there is 349 00:16:26,640 --> 00:16:30,000 Speaker 1: an age aggression in the in the system said well, 350 00:16:30,080 --> 00:16:33,360 Speaker 1: here they are a year or two years older, but 351 00:16:33,400 --> 00:16:36,000 Speaker 1: there's still that player. It's easier to do that and say, well, 352 00:16:36,000 --> 00:16:39,080 Speaker 1: what's gonna happen with an A cl etcetera. Because again, 353 00:16:39,080 --> 00:16:42,120 Speaker 1: these guys, especially Patriots players, they're going to come back 354 00:16:42,120 --> 00:16:44,800 Speaker 1: in a high level conditioning or be released. So it 355 00:16:44,920 --> 00:16:47,440 Speaker 1: was unique, it was different, but it's within the way 356 00:16:47,480 --> 00:16:50,200 Speaker 1: the system is designed to say, okay, returning player, returning 357 00:16:50,520 --> 00:16:52,880 Speaker 1: returning player, how old are they have they're going from 358 00:16:52,920 --> 00:16:56,000 Speaker 1: thirty to thirty two to twenty eight. You can make 359 00:16:56,080 --> 00:16:58,760 Speaker 1: some projections on that, put them in and get results 360 00:16:58,760 --> 00:17:01,400 Speaker 1: that you're comfortable with along those lines, Mike, I mean, 361 00:17:01,440 --> 00:17:04,480 Speaker 1: obviously projections are very very difficult. No one can predict 362 00:17:04,520 --> 00:17:08,840 Speaker 1: the future. But I know you guys projected the Texans 363 00:17:09,359 --> 00:17:14,119 Speaker 1: without the Shawn Watson. You projected the Packers with Aaron Rodgers. 364 00:17:14,640 --> 00:17:17,560 Speaker 1: But how do you handle New England who we mentioned, 365 00:17:17,720 --> 00:17:22,120 Speaker 1: or San Francisco, Chicago first round quarterbacks? You know when 366 00:17:22,160 --> 00:17:26,040 Speaker 1: they might take over things like that, but it's it's 367 00:17:26,160 --> 00:17:28,159 Speaker 1: usually first of all, with the rookies, you kind of 368 00:17:28,160 --> 00:17:30,680 Speaker 1: have a template you put in for the rookies based 369 00:17:30,720 --> 00:17:32,880 Speaker 1: on what they're drafted, based on some of the things 370 00:17:32,880 --> 00:17:35,080 Speaker 1: you did in college, and based on their type of play, 371 00:17:35,640 --> 00:17:38,560 Speaker 1: and generally speaking, you put in a either a mix 372 00:17:38,600 --> 00:17:41,719 Speaker 1: of the rookie and the starting quarterback or another thing 373 00:17:41,760 --> 00:17:43,919 Speaker 1: that we'll do is we'll run some of the projections 374 00:17:43,960 --> 00:17:47,080 Speaker 1: with the veteran and some of the projections with the rookie, 375 00:17:47,440 --> 00:17:50,400 Speaker 1: and then you kind of blend them together. An interesting 376 00:17:50,400 --> 00:17:52,440 Speaker 1: one is the Broncos and how I really went over 377 00:17:52,480 --> 00:17:55,040 Speaker 1: this with me. We did some projections Withdrew out for 378 00:17:55,200 --> 00:17:57,840 Speaker 1: all the games, some projections with Teddy Bridgewater for all 379 00:17:57,840 --> 00:18:01,080 Speaker 1: the games, and then we put together I mean, and 380 00:18:01,119 --> 00:18:04,120 Speaker 1: made the Bronco's projection and Broncos come out below five 381 00:18:04,160 --> 00:18:06,639 Speaker 1: hundre team. Uh So that's kind of how you do it. 382 00:18:06,720 --> 00:18:09,000 Speaker 1: You'd say, well, well, how do you manage that? Well, 383 00:18:09,119 --> 00:18:12,640 Speaker 1: we have now thirty some years of experience in our 384 00:18:12,680 --> 00:18:15,000 Speaker 1: d d L A back database and eighteen years at 385 00:18:15,000 --> 00:18:18,520 Speaker 1: Football Outsiders good in this with a rookie being drafted 386 00:18:19,000 --> 00:18:21,520 Speaker 1: and a veteran being there. So we had all these 387 00:18:21,800 --> 00:18:23,199 Speaker 1: all these things that we can look at in the 388 00:18:23,240 --> 00:18:25,640 Speaker 1: past and say, how does that actually turn out? How 389 00:18:25,640 --> 00:18:28,240 Speaker 1: did our projection look, and we can adjust it from there. 390 00:18:28,280 --> 00:18:30,240 Speaker 1: So on the one hand, it's weird to say, well, 391 00:18:30,280 --> 00:18:31,920 Speaker 1: what do you do with the bears of this projection 392 00:18:32,440 --> 00:18:36,159 Speaker 1: with Andy dald and Nick Foles and and uh and fields. 393 00:18:36,200 --> 00:18:37,840 Speaker 1: And the answer is the same thing you did with 394 00:18:37,880 --> 00:18:40,400 Speaker 1: Trabinsky and and the veterans and Glenn and a couple 395 00:18:40,440 --> 00:18:42,600 Speaker 1: of years ago. You put them together, you put them 396 00:18:42,640 --> 00:18:45,320 Speaker 1: out there, and a lot of times the answer to 397 00:18:45,359 --> 00:18:48,600 Speaker 1: the question is nobody's gonna be that fantastic because the 398 00:18:48,720 --> 00:18:51,200 Speaker 1: veteran isn't that good and the rookie is still learning, 399 00:18:51,880 --> 00:18:54,600 Speaker 1: So it's not like it's probably you're you're gonna get 400 00:18:54,600 --> 00:18:57,000 Speaker 1: a Patrick who's resulting these guys And it kind of 401 00:18:57,040 --> 00:19:00,320 Speaker 1: comes out in the wash. I'm Dale Ellie, He's met Wlliams. 402 00:19:00,359 --> 00:19:03,480 Speaker 1: Our guest is Mike Tanure from Football Outsiders. Mike, you 403 00:19:03,560 --> 00:19:06,280 Speaker 1: mentioned the Broncos. They're one of the teams that you 404 00:19:06,320 --> 00:19:09,160 Speaker 1: guys have their actually with the same win total as 405 00:19:09,160 --> 00:19:13,160 Speaker 1: the Steelers at eight point eight for the season. You 406 00:19:13,320 --> 00:19:17,439 Speaker 1: mentioned the difference between Locke and Bridgewater. What was what 407 00:19:17,480 --> 00:19:19,639 Speaker 1: were the projection totals? Like you you know what the 408 00:19:19,680 --> 00:19:22,880 Speaker 1: projection totals are like with one versus the other, because 409 00:19:23,280 --> 00:19:25,840 Speaker 1: there's a real winner it. You know, there is a 410 00:19:25,840 --> 00:19:29,080 Speaker 1: clear TI winner. His name is Teddy bridge Water. Because 411 00:19:29,560 --> 00:19:32,560 Speaker 1: you look at the overall, the Broncos defense is very strong. 412 00:19:33,280 --> 00:19:36,320 Speaker 1: Their offense is getting guys back like Courtland Suttons was 413 00:19:36,440 --> 00:19:38,679 Speaker 1: hurt all last year, who's a very good receiverer to 414 00:19:38,680 --> 00:19:40,800 Speaker 1: go with Jerry Judy and they have a pretty strong 415 00:19:40,880 --> 00:19:46,640 Speaker 1: offensive way. And John Alway for years has been kind 416 00:19:46,640 --> 00:19:48,240 Speaker 1: of like, if I can just get a guy, we 417 00:19:48,320 --> 00:19:50,920 Speaker 1: can get the ball downfield and take care of the ball. 418 00:19:51,160 --> 00:19:53,080 Speaker 1: This team is going to go to the playoffs. And 419 00:19:53,119 --> 00:19:55,040 Speaker 1: he's been unable to find that guy. And he went 420 00:19:55,040 --> 00:19:57,320 Speaker 1: from Paxton Winds for Trevor Sidmey and the case teen 421 00:19:57,359 --> 00:20:00,960 Speaker 1: and the Joe Flato and etcetera, and to Bridgewaters. That guy, 422 00:20:01,160 --> 00:20:02,760 Speaker 1: Teddy bridge Waters, the guy is going to go out 423 00:20:02,760 --> 00:20:04,119 Speaker 1: there take care of the ball for you and not 424 00:20:04,160 --> 00:20:07,080 Speaker 1: do anything stupid and thinking dunk the ball to his parget. 425 00:20:07,200 --> 00:20:10,480 Speaker 1: So if we were in the projection with Bridgewater, they're 426 00:20:10,480 --> 00:20:13,640 Speaker 1: in the playoff conversation because they're getting so many guys 427 00:20:13,680 --> 00:20:16,240 Speaker 1: back on defense because they've got two good weapons of offense. 428 00:20:16,440 --> 00:20:18,760 Speaker 1: When we went with Drew Block Drew Lock. They're the 429 00:20:18,800 --> 00:20:21,160 Speaker 1: same old Broncos of the last four or five years, 430 00:20:21,359 --> 00:20:23,840 Speaker 1: and they're losing these really boring games because their defensive 431 00:20:23,920 --> 00:20:27,000 Speaker 1: keeping them closed. So that's that's that. We'll see how 432 00:20:27,040 --> 00:20:30,920 Speaker 1: the how the Broncos make their decisions right on our projection. 433 00:20:30,960 --> 00:20:34,080 Speaker 1: So from Teddy, Bridgewater is the clear cut winner. Let's 434 00:20:34,080 --> 00:20:35,800 Speaker 1: get back to the Ravens a little bit. I mean 435 00:20:36,520 --> 00:20:39,240 Speaker 1: they're like a staple for special teams, but that's a 436 00:20:39,280 --> 00:20:42,960 Speaker 1: small portion of the equation. Um, I think their offensive 437 00:20:42,960 --> 00:20:45,840 Speaker 1: line should be better. I certainly think they're passing game 438 00:20:45,880 --> 00:20:49,520 Speaker 1: will be better. But you guys are extremely high on them, 439 00:20:49,520 --> 00:20:52,400 Speaker 1: which I understand what worries you and what are their 440 00:20:52,440 --> 00:20:57,160 Speaker 1: best strengths. You know, it's almost like you pencil women 441 00:20:57,160 --> 00:21:00,520 Speaker 1: into the playoffs and then you see, okay, there's time 442 00:21:00,560 --> 00:21:04,280 Speaker 1: for another reading of the words. Lamar Jackson's ability to 443 00:21:04,359 --> 00:21:07,359 Speaker 1: get to call down the field on the sidelines, you know, 444 00:21:07,440 --> 00:21:11,040 Speaker 1: on throat and long trailing by whenever, when the defensive 445 00:21:11,240 --> 00:21:13,000 Speaker 1: is taking away the running game, and you have to 446 00:21:13,040 --> 00:21:16,320 Speaker 1: go back to those conversations overall, but you mentioned the 447 00:21:16,400 --> 00:21:19,720 Speaker 1: offensive line. They've they've upgraded the interior offensive line, which 448 00:21:19,760 --> 00:21:22,400 Speaker 1: is a real problem. Last year. They had injuries, they 449 00:21:22,400 --> 00:21:25,800 Speaker 1: had retirements, their center melted down and start throwing the 450 00:21:25,840 --> 00:21:28,760 Speaker 1: balls where Lamar's head. Uh, they had problems like that. 451 00:21:28,800 --> 00:21:31,480 Speaker 1: They seem to fix most of those problems. They drafted. Well, 452 00:21:31,520 --> 00:21:34,640 Speaker 1: they've added free agents. Can you look at the receiving cord. 453 00:21:34,720 --> 00:21:38,080 Speaker 1: They brought in another receiver or Sean Bateman in the draft. 454 00:21:38,119 --> 00:21:40,040 Speaker 1: They brought in Sammy Watkins, who will be good for 455 00:21:40,040 --> 00:21:44,840 Speaker 1: four games and thirteen. Um, you've done everything possible at 456 00:21:44,840 --> 00:21:47,119 Speaker 1: this point to say, Okay, Lamark is still run the 457 00:21:47,119 --> 00:21:49,520 Speaker 1: auction game. He can still complete passes over the middle. 458 00:21:49,600 --> 00:21:52,240 Speaker 1: He can still make plays by find time they're throwing. 459 00:21:53,040 --> 00:21:57,200 Speaker 1: Can you make those sidelines or routine for other quarterback passes? 460 00:21:57,359 --> 00:21:59,920 Speaker 1: So he knows he's got to improve on it. Look, 461 00:22:00,119 --> 00:22:02,560 Speaker 1: he improved on the second half of the year. The 462 00:22:02,640 --> 00:22:05,879 Speaker 1: receivers are there who can do this. They're all veterans now, 463 00:22:05,920 --> 00:22:07,440 Speaker 1: they're all you know, it's not a lot of workies. 464 00:22:08,080 --> 00:22:10,640 Speaker 1: Hollywood Brown is not a youngster anymore. Neiter is boyk 465 00:22:10,720 --> 00:22:12,520 Speaker 1: in the euro of the guys they drafted last year, 466 00:22:12,840 --> 00:22:14,480 Speaker 1: it all looks like they should be a team that 467 00:22:14,520 --> 00:22:17,960 Speaker 1: should be deep into January. With the playoffs, So you 468 00:22:18,040 --> 00:22:21,199 Speaker 1: pencil that in and we'll see what happens. But like 469 00:22:21,240 --> 00:22:23,600 Speaker 1: I said, they're near the top of the projections. They're 470 00:22:23,600 --> 00:22:25,800 Speaker 1: in the conversation with the Chiefs and the Bills. I 471 00:22:25,800 --> 00:22:28,960 Speaker 1: think they're all going to be in that conversation come January. 472 00:22:29,320 --> 00:22:31,960 Speaker 1: Mike on the other side of the equation that the 473 00:22:32,240 --> 00:22:35,520 Speaker 1: New Orleans Saints have been a team that have been, 474 00:22:35,720 --> 00:22:38,280 Speaker 1: you know, a factor for the last few years, but 475 00:22:38,400 --> 00:22:42,760 Speaker 1: also undergoing a quarterback situation there, what was what were 476 00:22:42,760 --> 00:22:46,400 Speaker 1: the projections like in terms of their two quarterbacks and 477 00:22:46,480 --> 00:22:50,920 Speaker 1: what differences did that make if any Really it wasn't 478 00:22:50,960 --> 00:22:53,560 Speaker 1: that big a difference, but it's a clear win for Jamis. 479 00:22:53,640 --> 00:22:55,920 Speaker 1: And I think a lot of the projections were done 480 00:22:55,920 --> 00:22:57,840 Speaker 1: with Jamis in there. I don't have Aaron here to 481 00:22:57,920 --> 00:23:00,480 Speaker 1: vouch for that, but you know, it's kind of like 482 00:23:00,520 --> 00:23:04,600 Speaker 1: the law of of national decision making. And they say, 483 00:23:04,640 --> 00:23:07,440 Speaker 1: are you gonna You're gonna start Jamis? Are you gonna 484 00:23:07,480 --> 00:23:09,800 Speaker 1: start the love Child? And I keep jumping up and 485 00:23:09,800 --> 00:23:12,200 Speaker 1: now and saying we're gonna They're gonna start pays them. 486 00:23:12,840 --> 00:23:14,960 Speaker 1: But you know, if I look at the scenes, they 487 00:23:15,080 --> 00:23:18,520 Speaker 1: lift the Patriots for last year, Tom Brady Leaves, Drew 488 00:23:18,560 --> 00:23:21,679 Speaker 1: Bleep Breeze Leaves. Uh, you know the Patriots are like, 489 00:23:21,680 --> 00:23:24,120 Speaker 1: you know, we still have a great defense. Pains still 490 00:23:24,119 --> 00:23:26,160 Speaker 1: have a great defense, still have a lot of Federans. 491 00:23:26,200 --> 00:23:29,400 Speaker 1: You've can I play off situations? Patriots last year? Oh 492 00:23:29,520 --> 00:23:31,760 Speaker 1: you know what, Belichicks of genius still figure it out. 493 00:23:31,920 --> 00:23:33,800 Speaker 1: This kid stid Hum was going to be good. Oh, 494 00:23:33,840 --> 00:23:35,840 Speaker 1: if they got Cam, they're gonna out smart everybody. Was 495 00:23:35,960 --> 00:23:38,359 Speaker 1: Cam really didn't work out that way. They kind of 496 00:23:38,359 --> 00:23:41,000 Speaker 1: got okay quarterback games from Cam and staid him was 497 00:23:41,040 --> 00:23:43,960 Speaker 1: a mess. John Peyton right now, I've got I've got 498 00:23:44,000 --> 00:23:46,680 Speaker 1: Haysom and I've got Jamis. I don't know if there's 499 00:23:46,680 --> 00:23:48,359 Speaker 1: a solution between the two. I don't know. If you're 500 00:23:48,400 --> 00:23:50,800 Speaker 1: gonna get turnovers, you're just gonna be running the wildcat 501 00:23:50,840 --> 00:23:53,720 Speaker 1: every day. Either way, it looks like that defense will 502 00:23:53,760 --> 00:23:55,600 Speaker 1: keep them in a lot of games, just like the 503 00:23:55,600 --> 00:23:58,120 Speaker 1: Patriots win a lot of games last year. But there 504 00:23:58,680 --> 00:24:00,800 Speaker 1: and they're actually in a pretty easy vision except for 505 00:24:00,840 --> 00:24:02,520 Speaker 1: the fact that Tom Brad is ahead of them and 506 00:24:02,560 --> 00:24:05,880 Speaker 1: they're gonna wint to slotted in second place, and whether 507 00:24:05,960 --> 00:24:07,640 Speaker 1: or not to make the playoffs is based on whether 508 00:24:07,880 --> 00:24:10,119 Speaker 1: they find a solution or a lot of teams in 509 00:24:10,119 --> 00:24:12,400 Speaker 1: the NFC fall off, which is something that we saw 510 00:24:12,600 --> 00:24:16,560 Speaker 1: last year. Yeah, along those lines with Sean Payton. You know, 511 00:24:16,680 --> 00:24:19,119 Speaker 1: last year we talked about the disaster that New England 512 00:24:19,200 --> 00:24:21,960 Speaker 1: dealt with. They still won seven games the year before that. 513 00:24:22,280 --> 00:24:24,640 Speaker 1: You know, the Steelers didn't have a quarterback. Two years 514 00:24:24,640 --> 00:24:27,760 Speaker 1: ago they went out, you know, they went you know, 515 00:24:27,920 --> 00:24:30,560 Speaker 1: I mean, I wonder what the what you guys think 516 00:24:30,600 --> 00:24:36,199 Speaker 1: the floor is for Belichick, Tomlin, Carol Peyton, Harrorbaugh. You 517 00:24:36,200 --> 00:24:39,600 Speaker 1: know that that group of Hall of Fame or borderline 518 00:24:39,640 --> 00:24:43,119 Speaker 1: hall of Fame coaches. You know what, Andy Reid was 519 00:24:43,880 --> 00:24:45,840 Speaker 1: silly for a lot of years until he had this 520 00:24:45,920 --> 00:24:48,960 Speaker 1: year where everything fall apart and held it so at 521 00:24:48,960 --> 00:24:53,000 Speaker 1: some point it's possible to use the team. They say 522 00:24:53,040 --> 00:24:55,880 Speaker 1: that factor is probably got through the Holy Antonio experience. 523 00:24:55,920 --> 00:24:58,879 Speaker 1: Didn't lose the team. All think Polichick will lose a 524 00:24:58,880 --> 00:25:01,920 Speaker 1: team because it's like, know, guys were born to just 525 00:25:01,960 --> 00:25:04,760 Speaker 1: get a new team. You just get a new team, 526 00:25:04,920 --> 00:25:08,480 Speaker 1: right right right right. Peyton's the interesting one because you 527 00:25:08,520 --> 00:25:10,760 Speaker 1: want to lose the team, procase on hill out there 528 00:25:10,760 --> 00:25:12,440 Speaker 1: and run the wildcat for a year and then guys 529 00:25:12,480 --> 00:25:15,359 Speaker 1: are gonna start mumbling and grumbling about it. So but 530 00:25:15,359 --> 00:25:18,080 Speaker 1: but you those guys build in the idea you're gonna 531 00:25:18,080 --> 00:25:20,760 Speaker 1: win six, seven, eight games no matter what, even if 532 00:25:20,760 --> 00:25:23,600 Speaker 1: things fall apart, because of the excellence of your system. 533 00:25:23,600 --> 00:25:26,879 Speaker 1: And we mentioned you mentioned special teams a couple of times. 534 00:25:27,920 --> 00:25:30,600 Speaker 1: The Ravens and the h and the Cadres are the 535 00:25:30,640 --> 00:25:32,479 Speaker 1: only teams that are on the top of the special 536 00:25:32,480 --> 00:25:34,600 Speaker 1: teams list every year, because that goes up and down 537 00:25:34,640 --> 00:25:36,960 Speaker 1: whether or not your system, your program is in place 538 00:25:37,119 --> 00:25:40,160 Speaker 1: and the young players are developing, etcetera, etcetera. The great 539 00:25:40,200 --> 00:25:42,359 Speaker 1: coaches are able to do that and manage that, and 540 00:25:42,400 --> 00:25:44,640 Speaker 1: the weaker coaches they might have a great year now 541 00:25:44,680 --> 00:25:46,480 Speaker 1: and then, but they can't do that year in a 542 00:25:46,520 --> 00:25:49,520 Speaker 1: new year. Out Well, our guests has been Mike Tanier 543 00:25:49,520 --> 00:25:51,600 Speaker 1: from Football Outsiders. We'd love to sit here and talk 544 00:25:51,600 --> 00:25:53,639 Speaker 1: football with you for hours. Michael. You know you got 545 00:25:53,840 --> 00:25:55,919 Speaker 1: you got a busy schedule. You've got other places to go, 546 00:25:56,000 --> 00:25:59,439 Speaker 1: but we appreciate you stopping by and talking about the 547 00:25:59,440 --> 00:26:02,679 Speaker 1: the Almond here and some of the inside information uh 548 00:26:02,760 --> 00:26:07,720 Speaker 1: here on Steelers Nation Radio. But good talking to you, Mike. Absolutely, 549 00:26:07,760 --> 00:26:09,359 Speaker 1: it was a pleasure to take care and enjoy your 550 00:26:09,359 --> 00:26:12,360 Speaker 1: summary YouTube. Man, take care. Good stuff there from Mike 551 00:26:12,400 --> 00:26:15,560 Speaker 1: Tan youre um I could talk out within hours, to 552 00:26:15,560 --> 00:26:17,720 Speaker 1: be honest with you. Absolutely, And if you get a 553 00:26:17,800 --> 00:26:20,600 Speaker 1: chance to check that out, it's Football outsiders dot com. 554 00:26:20,640 --> 00:26:22,920 Speaker 1: Even if you don't get the almanac, join the site. 555 00:26:22,920 --> 00:26:25,360 Speaker 1: There's something. Yeah, the stats that they have on their 556 00:26:26,000 --> 00:26:29,320 Speaker 1: uh we talked about it all the time and all 557 00:26:29,359 --> 00:26:32,080 Speaker 1: that stuff. We always talk about it on our show here. 558 00:26:32,720 --> 00:26:34,320 Speaker 1: But check it out there. They've got a lot of 559 00:26:34,520 --> 00:26:37,119 Speaker 1: good information on there. I like it better than like 560 00:26:37,160 --> 00:26:38,960 Speaker 1: Pro Football Focus and some of that. They've been doing 561 00:26:38,960 --> 00:26:41,520 Speaker 1: it a lot longer. I mean really they call Aaron 562 00:26:41,560 --> 00:26:44,760 Speaker 1: who we mentioned, the godfather of analytics. I mean he 563 00:26:44,840 --> 00:26:47,520 Speaker 1: was doing it well before all these other people, and 564 00:26:47,560 --> 00:26:49,720 Speaker 1: they do a very very good job of it. I 565 00:26:50,119 --> 00:26:54,520 Speaker 1: like that they don't, you know, analyze every snap player 566 00:26:54,640 --> 00:26:58,679 Speaker 1: grade you know. Yeah, some some of the coverage stuff 567 00:26:58,720 --> 00:27:01,880 Speaker 1: and offensive line stuff of that. Um. You know that 568 00:27:01,920 --> 00:27:04,840 Speaker 1: the the other sites deal with to me, isn't as accurate, 569 00:27:04,960 --> 00:27:07,399 Speaker 1: you know, but Football Siders is outstanding. I may go 570 00:27:07,400 --> 00:27:09,879 Speaker 1: their side every day. Yeah, it's it's definitely a go 571 00:27:10,000 --> 00:27:14,000 Speaker 1: to site for myself as well. But yeah, right. I mean, 572 00:27:14,520 --> 00:27:16,200 Speaker 1: if you just read the Steelers in the a f 573 00:27:16,280 --> 00:27:19,600 Speaker 1: C North, it's worth your money. Yeah, absolutely absolutely, But 574 00:27:19,880 --> 00:27:22,600 Speaker 1: that is going to do it for today's show. So 575 00:27:22,720 --> 00:27:25,760 Speaker 1: for my partner Matt Williamson, for Jacob rec Here on 576 00:27:25,760 --> 00:27:27,919 Speaker 1: site keeping us on the air, I'm Dale Lelly. We 577 00:27:27,960 --> 00:27:31,199 Speaker 1: appreciate you listening to this edition of the Drive on 578 00:27:31,359 --> 00:27:32,919 Speaker 1: Steelers Nation Radio