1 00:00:01,040 --> 00:00:05,600 Speaker 1: Welcome everyone to the Betting pros PGA Podcast. I'm Pat Fitzmorris, 2 00:00:05,920 --> 00:00:08,959 Speaker 1: joined as always by mister bau mcbrair. On this week's show, 3 00:00:09,000 --> 00:00:12,280 Speaker 1: we are going to provide a quick recap of the 4 00:00:12,400 --> 00:00:17,040 Speaker 1: Arnold Palmer Championship before we preview the so called fifth Major, 5 00:00:17,280 --> 00:00:21,800 Speaker 1: the Players Championship at TPC Sawgrass, and at the end 6 00:00:21,800 --> 00:00:24,120 Speaker 1: of the show, we will as always make our one 7 00:00:24,160 --> 00:00:27,160 Speaker 1: and done picks for the week. The Betting pros PGA 8 00:00:27,320 --> 00:00:32,159 Speaker 1: Podcast is sponsored by Underdog Fantasy. Everyone knows that Underdog 9 00:00:32,280 --> 00:00:36,320 Speaker 1: is the place to go for best ball fantasy football contests, 10 00:00:36,720 --> 00:00:39,000 Speaker 1: but you might not have known that Underdog also has 11 00:00:39,080 --> 00:00:42,680 Speaker 1: golf contest. To sign up for Underdog if you haven't 12 00:00:42,720 --> 00:00:46,559 Speaker 1: already with the promo code BP Golf to get your 13 00:00:46,560 --> 00:00:49,599 Speaker 1: first deposit match up to one hundred dollars plus, there 14 00:00:49,680 --> 00:00:52,120 Speaker 1: is a special pick available for you in the lobby. 15 00:00:52,400 --> 00:00:55,920 Speaker 1: More on Underdog and its golf contest a little bit later. Bo, 16 00:00:56,440 --> 00:01:00,600 Speaker 1: We've seen some really short odds for Scottie Scheffler all 17 00:01:00,640 --> 00:01:03,920 Speaker 1: season long, and that's no surprise. He's the number one 18 00:01:03,920 --> 00:01:06,520 Speaker 1: player in the world. He's the best ball striker on 19 00:01:06,600 --> 00:01:11,200 Speaker 1: planet Earth. He's won well, he won two tournaments last 20 00:01:11,240 --> 00:01:14,399 Speaker 1: year and finished top ten in three quarters of the 21 00:01:14,440 --> 00:01:18,600 Speaker 1: events he entered in twenty twenty three. But you and 22 00:01:18,640 --> 00:01:22,120 Speaker 1: I had not been recommending Scotty Scheffler outrights this season 23 00:01:22,160 --> 00:01:26,200 Speaker 1: because we didn't think the value was there until last week. Bo, 24 00:01:26,400 --> 00:01:29,640 Speaker 1: you said you liked Scotty last week and we're going 25 00:01:29,640 --> 00:01:33,800 Speaker 1: to bet him, and so congratulations on hitting that one. 26 00:01:34,360 --> 00:01:37,480 Speaker 1: I couldn't bring myself to bet Scotty at what plus 27 00:01:37,680 --> 00:01:39,880 Speaker 1: six fifty I think he was, but you were all 28 00:01:39,920 --> 00:01:42,880 Speaker 1: over it. And while it wasn't a super bowld prediction, 29 00:01:43,840 --> 00:01:46,520 Speaker 1: the fact is we hadn't really been on Scotty until 30 00:01:46,600 --> 00:01:48,760 Speaker 1: he went to Bay Hill, and you picked a great 31 00:01:48,880 --> 00:01:53,800 Speaker 1: week to get off the sideline and bet him. So yeah, 32 00:01:53,800 --> 00:01:57,480 Speaker 1: what was give me? Give me the rationale. 33 00:01:57,680 --> 00:02:00,680 Speaker 2: It was a combination of a few things. I saw 34 00:02:00,720 --> 00:02:04,120 Speaker 2: some encouraging signs in his putting even before he switched 35 00:02:04,120 --> 00:02:08,360 Speaker 2: to the mallet putter, which could have gone either way. Honestly, 36 00:02:08,560 --> 00:02:11,240 Speaker 2: I mean guys like that are always searching for that 37 00:02:11,360 --> 00:02:15,120 Speaker 2: missing piece to the puzzle. Scotty's game is so good 38 00:02:15,160 --> 00:02:18,720 Speaker 2: outside of the putter that even a neutral putter would 39 00:02:18,720 --> 00:02:23,079 Speaker 2: have won him that tournament, but instead he gained almost 40 00:02:23,120 --> 00:02:25,720 Speaker 2: four strokes. I believe he gained three point eight to 41 00:02:25,840 --> 00:02:29,560 Speaker 2: nine strokes putting in the final round, which is why 42 00:02:29,600 --> 00:02:33,720 Speaker 2: he obliterated the field. And if you have Scotty Scheffler 43 00:02:33,720 --> 00:02:37,280 Speaker 2: out there gaining four strokes on the greens, nobody in 44 00:02:37,320 --> 00:02:41,520 Speaker 2: the world has any chance to beat him. Period. That's 45 00:02:41,600 --> 00:02:44,560 Speaker 2: how good the sky is from tee to green and 46 00:02:44,639 --> 00:02:47,360 Speaker 2: even around the greens. This guy, even if he only 47 00:02:47,400 --> 00:02:51,239 Speaker 2: loses one stroke putting around, he beats everybody in the world. 48 00:02:51,720 --> 00:02:54,160 Speaker 2: So for me, it was all about just putting that 49 00:02:54,280 --> 00:02:57,799 Speaker 2: last little puzzle piece in place and him being a 50 00:02:57,840 --> 00:02:59,960 Speaker 2: little bit lazy and growing the beard out. I mean, 51 00:03:00,160 --> 00:03:04,000 Speaker 2: it's it's a it's a simple bias. But when you 52 00:03:04,280 --> 00:03:06,919 Speaker 2: we have to call him Scott Scheffler from now on, 53 00:03:07,000 --> 00:03:10,399 Speaker 2: because Scotty is all grown up man, he's got he's 54 00:03:10,400 --> 00:03:13,480 Speaker 2: got the shadow going. And I hope he doesn't shave 55 00:03:13,520 --> 00:03:16,560 Speaker 2: it because it's like it's a playoff beard at this point. 56 00:03:16,600 --> 00:03:19,440 Speaker 2: You got to keep the keep the good vibes going. 57 00:03:20,480 --> 00:03:22,160 Speaker 2: He said he was gonna shave it those I'm a 58 00:03:22,200 --> 00:03:25,000 Speaker 2: little disappointed, And for that reason, if he does shave it, 59 00:03:25,000 --> 00:03:25,840 Speaker 2: I'm not betting on him. 60 00:03:25,880 --> 00:03:29,760 Speaker 1: This week. Yeah, no kidding, man, It's like the NHL playoffs. 61 00:03:29,760 --> 00:03:33,040 Speaker 1: You can't shave it once you're going until until you're out. 62 00:03:33,400 --> 00:03:37,640 Speaker 1: Got to keep it. But man, lest anyone wonder about 63 00:03:37,680 --> 00:03:41,560 Speaker 1: the size of the sponsorship deals that these guys get 64 00:03:41,600 --> 00:03:45,160 Speaker 1: from manufacturers, Those mallet putters are going to be flying 65 00:03:45,200 --> 00:03:49,440 Speaker 1: off the shelves of local pro shops this week after 66 00:03:49,480 --> 00:03:50,320 Speaker 1: the way Scotty did. 67 00:03:50,360 --> 00:03:53,560 Speaker 2: After Wyndham, Clark and Ricky Fowler started using it, it 68 00:03:53,600 --> 00:03:54,960 Speaker 2: was it was off the charts. 69 00:03:56,000 --> 00:03:59,480 Speaker 1: Yeah. So, just to recap the Arnold Palmer Invitational for 70 00:03:59,520 --> 00:04:02,760 Speaker 1: a minute, we just six way tie for the lead 71 00:04:03,040 --> 00:04:07,560 Speaker 1: going into the weekend, with Scotty, Scheffler, Shane Lowry, Russell Henley, 72 00:04:07,600 --> 00:04:12,040 Speaker 1: Wyndham Clark, Brian Harmon and Hedeki Matsuyama all at minus seven. 73 00:04:12,720 --> 00:04:15,600 Speaker 1: Scotty's odds were set at plus two point fifty at 74 00:04:15,600 --> 00:04:18,720 Speaker 1: that point, and you know, I thought that was a 75 00:04:18,760 --> 00:04:21,960 Speaker 1: little too short considering the caliber of the players he 76 00:04:22,080 --> 00:04:25,920 Speaker 1: was tied with. I was dead wrong. So Scotty shut 77 00:04:25,920 --> 00:04:29,760 Speaker 1: a two hunder par seventy in difficult conditions on Saturday 78 00:04:29,839 --> 00:04:32,440 Speaker 1: and went into the final round tied with Shane Lowry 79 00:04:32,920 --> 00:04:36,320 Speaker 1: and then Scheffler turned into just an absolutely masterful performance 80 00:04:36,360 --> 00:04:39,919 Speaker 1: on Sunday, bogie free sixty six to win by five 81 00:04:39,960 --> 00:04:45,080 Speaker 1: shots over Wyndham Clark. No drama, no drama whatsoever coming home. 82 00:04:46,160 --> 00:04:49,760 Speaker 1: Scheffler's fifteen under was the lowest winning score at Bayhill 83 00:04:49,800 --> 00:04:54,320 Speaker 1: since Rory McElroy finished minus eighteen in twenty eighteen. And 84 00:04:54,440 --> 00:04:59,200 Speaker 1: considering the conditions bo for Scotty to go eight under 85 00:04:59,320 --> 00:05:03,000 Speaker 1: on the weekend and on a very difficult course with 86 00:05:03,080 --> 00:05:07,440 Speaker 1: some breezy conditions and extremely firm greens, I mean both 87 00:05:07,440 --> 00:05:10,479 Speaker 1: of those were playing like US Open greens Man, that 88 00:05:10,560 --> 00:05:16,320 Speaker 1: was impressive. Your thoughts on Scheffler, his performance and the 89 00:05:16,440 --> 00:05:18,240 Speaker 1: Arnold Palmer Invitational. 90 00:05:18,040 --> 00:05:21,279 Speaker 2: Well, for some perspective, it was a little bit more 91 00:05:21,560 --> 00:05:24,960 Speaker 2: generous when the wind was down on Thursday, and that 92 00:05:25,160 --> 00:05:29,159 Speaker 2: was when one other person shot sixty six, and so 93 00:05:29,400 --> 00:05:32,279 Speaker 2: his Sunday round tied the lowest round of the entire 94 00:05:32,360 --> 00:05:36,320 Speaker 2: tournament at sixty six. When the pins were tucked, the 95 00:05:36,400 --> 00:05:39,039 Speaker 2: wind was up, the rough had grown out an extra 96 00:05:39,120 --> 00:05:41,560 Speaker 2: inch and a half since they teed off on Thursday. 97 00:05:42,240 --> 00:05:45,600 Speaker 2: The dude was surgical. He didn't miss fair ways, he 98 00:05:45,640 --> 00:05:49,160 Speaker 2: didn't miss greens. He just picked that course clean off 99 00:05:49,200 --> 00:05:54,520 Speaker 2: the bone, and another bit of perspective, not a single 100 00:05:54,760 --> 00:05:58,600 Speaker 2: soul that was playing in his group with him, with 101 00:05:58,720 --> 00:06:02,960 Speaker 2: Lowry or anybody else, and the last few groups was 102 00:06:03,080 --> 00:06:06,440 Speaker 2: anywhere close to even par. They were struggling to make 103 00:06:06,520 --> 00:06:11,640 Speaker 2: pars on in those conditions, and Scotty was tapping in 104 00:06:11,760 --> 00:06:16,040 Speaker 2: pars and rolling in Bertie from thirty five feet. It 105 00:06:16,120 --> 00:06:19,920 Speaker 2: was just there was. There were two golf courses that day. 106 00:06:20,400 --> 00:06:23,000 Speaker 2: And I hate to throw the Tiger thing out there, 107 00:06:23,040 --> 00:06:27,479 Speaker 2: but we haven't said that about any golfers since Tiger. 108 00:06:27,880 --> 00:06:31,080 Speaker 2: Where you go out there and you say, oh, Tiger's 109 00:06:31,120 --> 00:06:35,000 Speaker 2: playing just a different golf course today, because when he 110 00:06:35,120 --> 00:06:39,080 Speaker 2: crushed Pebble Beach in two thousand, or when he crushed 111 00:06:39,120 --> 00:06:43,000 Speaker 2: Augusta in ninety six, it was just like, Okay, he's 112 00:06:43,000 --> 00:06:46,120 Speaker 2: out here playing Immuni while everybody else is playing the 113 00:06:46,400 --> 00:06:49,440 Speaker 2: actual golf course. And for him to make Bayhill look 114 00:06:49,560 --> 00:06:55,280 Speaker 2: like that, it's it's ridiculous. It's unbelievable golf. And I 115 00:06:56,640 --> 00:06:58,880 Speaker 2: hate to say it, but it was. It was Tiger 116 00:06:59,000 --> 00:07:02,200 Speaker 2: like it it was. I don't like that kind of hyperbole, 117 00:07:02,279 --> 00:07:06,680 Speaker 2: because Tiger's in a just in an era, his own 118 00:07:06,760 --> 00:07:10,840 Speaker 2: caliber echelon. Whatever you want to call it. But Scotty 119 00:07:10,960 --> 00:07:12,640 Speaker 2: keeps this up and he's going to be in those 120 00:07:12,680 --> 00:07:14,360 Speaker 2: conversations a lot more often. 121 00:07:15,480 --> 00:07:19,160 Speaker 1: Well, maybe that comparison to peak Tiger is somewhat apt 122 00:07:19,520 --> 00:07:23,160 Speaker 1: considering how well Tiger always played at bay Hill. I mean, 123 00:07:23,160 --> 00:07:25,760 Speaker 1: that was one of the events that he just dominated 124 00:07:26,600 --> 00:07:28,920 Speaker 1: during his time. There were a lot of events he dominated, 125 00:07:28,960 --> 00:07:33,360 Speaker 1: but bay Hill, I don't know how many. There was 126 00:07:33,360 --> 00:07:35,480 Speaker 1: probably like a ten year stretch where he wanted like 127 00:07:35,640 --> 00:07:36,640 Speaker 1: seven or eight times. 128 00:07:37,680 --> 00:07:40,240 Speaker 2: He won Arnold Palmer eight times, and he also won 129 00:07:40,280 --> 00:07:44,440 Speaker 2: an amateur event there too, So he won nine times 130 00:07:44,440 --> 00:07:45,560 Speaker 2: in total at bay Hill. 131 00:07:46,600 --> 00:07:49,440 Speaker 1: Yeah, and now we get to talk about the Players Championship. 132 00:07:49,560 --> 00:07:51,760 Speaker 1: We'll break it all down in just a moment. But first, 133 00:07:52,080 --> 00:07:55,760 Speaker 1: our friends at Underdog Fantasy are betting. Letting, excuse me, letting. 134 00:07:55,800 --> 00:07:58,240 Speaker 1: You make picks on your favorite golfers all season long. 135 00:07:58,800 --> 00:08:01,800 Speaker 1: Just pick higher or lower or unselected stats for two 136 00:08:01,800 --> 00:08:04,440 Speaker 1: to five golfers, and you can win up to twenty 137 00:08:04,480 --> 00:08:07,200 Speaker 1: times your money in a single day. You can also 138 00:08:07,240 --> 00:08:10,720 Speaker 1: make rivals picks, choosing which of two golfers will shoot 139 00:08:10,760 --> 00:08:13,680 Speaker 1: a better score in a round. For instance. Golf picks 140 00:08:13,720 --> 00:08:16,280 Speaker 1: can be combined with player stats from other sports too. 141 00:08:16,960 --> 00:08:19,720 Speaker 1: Go sign up an underdog fantasy with the promo code 142 00:08:19,760 --> 00:08:22,440 Speaker 1: BP Golf to get your first deposit match up two 143 00:08:22,400 --> 00:08:25,640 Speaker 1: one hundred dollars plus. There's a special pick available for 144 00:08:25,720 --> 00:08:29,280 Speaker 1: you in the lobby all right. The Players Championship Bow 145 00:08:29,360 --> 00:08:33,360 Speaker 1: As always, this event will be contested at TPC Sagrass 146 00:08:33,360 --> 00:08:36,760 Speaker 1: in the Jacksonville area. It's a peat die course, perhaps 147 00:08:36,840 --> 00:08:40,360 Speaker 1: the most famous and diabolical of all peat die courses, 148 00:08:40,440 --> 00:08:45,240 Speaker 1: a par seventy two covering seven two and seventy five yards. 149 00:08:45,880 --> 00:08:49,360 Speaker 1: Scheffler coming off the big win last year, a five 150 00:08:49,360 --> 00:08:53,640 Speaker 1: shot win. He's the defending champ. He won with the 151 00:08:53,640 --> 00:08:56,680 Speaker 1: score of minus seventeen, five shots better than runner up 152 00:08:56,720 --> 00:09:00,840 Speaker 1: tyr Olhatton. Other recent winners here Cam Smith minus thirteen, 153 00:09:01,440 --> 00:09:05,840 Speaker 1: Justin Thomas and minus fourteen. The tournament was canceled midway 154 00:09:05,880 --> 00:09:09,240 Speaker 1: through in twenty twenty due to COVID nineteen. Roy McElroy 155 00:09:09,440 --> 00:09:12,280 Speaker 1: won in twenty nineteen with the score of minus fourteen 156 00:09:12,800 --> 00:09:16,120 Speaker 1: and Webb Simpson one in twenty eighteen with the score 157 00:09:16,160 --> 00:09:22,079 Speaker 1: of minus eighteen. TPC Sawgrass is a relatively short course 158 00:09:22,160 --> 00:09:26,760 Speaker 1: by t PGA's standards bo but there's all sorts of 159 00:09:26,760 --> 00:09:30,960 Speaker 1: trouble lurking, lots of water, lots of sand. I think 160 00:09:31,040 --> 00:09:33,319 Speaker 1: ninety two bunkers on the course, and some of them 161 00:09:33,320 --> 00:09:37,400 Speaker 1: are like you, no more than an acre large. The 162 00:09:37,440 --> 00:09:39,439 Speaker 1: fairways are narrow, so players are going to put the 163 00:09:39,520 --> 00:09:42,079 Speaker 1: driver away on a lot of these holes, and they're 164 00:09:42,080 --> 00:09:46,240 Speaker 1: all sorts of mounds and hollows awaiting the players who 165 00:09:46,280 --> 00:09:50,400 Speaker 1: miss fairways. The greens are poa. They're firm and fast. 166 00:09:50,520 --> 00:09:53,760 Speaker 1: We saw very firm greens at Bay Hill this past weekend, 167 00:09:54,160 --> 00:09:57,719 Speaker 1: and there's not much rain in the forecast for the 168 00:09:57,840 --> 00:10:01,400 Speaker 1: Jacksonville area this week, so expect difficult called conditions when 169 00:10:01,440 --> 00:10:04,679 Speaker 1: the curtain goes up on the Players Championship Thursday. The 170 00:10:04,720 --> 00:10:07,400 Speaker 1: weather forecast calls for temperatures in the mid to upper 171 00:10:07,440 --> 00:10:11,479 Speaker 1: eighties throughout the event. There's a chance of afternoon thunderstorms 172 00:10:11,480 --> 00:10:14,520 Speaker 1: on Friday, but conditions should be pretty dry otherwise, and 173 00:10:14,559 --> 00:10:17,440 Speaker 1: there's gonna be some breeze eight miles an hour Thursday, 174 00:10:17,480 --> 00:10:20,640 Speaker 1: but then wins of ten miles an hour or higher 175 00:10:21,080 --> 00:10:24,319 Speaker 1: the next three days. Bo This can be kind of 176 00:10:24,360 --> 00:10:31,160 Speaker 1: a difficult tournament to forecast because they're crooked numbers lurking everywhere, 177 00:10:31,520 --> 00:10:34,160 Speaker 1: and there's a lot of variance when even the top 178 00:10:34,200 --> 00:10:38,880 Speaker 1: players are carting doublin triple bogies. Driving accuracy is important 179 00:10:38,880 --> 00:10:44,000 Speaker 1: to TPC sawgrass precision, iron play is importance, Scrambling is important. 180 00:10:45,000 --> 00:10:47,760 Speaker 1: What do you see as the keys or maybe the 181 00:10:47,960 --> 00:10:49,959 Speaker 1: key to playing this course. 182 00:10:49,720 --> 00:10:54,160 Speaker 2: Well, it's a brilliant it's a thinking man's golf course. 183 00:10:54,480 --> 00:10:57,320 Speaker 2: It's you have to plan each shot with the next 184 00:10:57,320 --> 00:11:00,720 Speaker 2: shot in in mind, and the accuracy is important. The 185 00:11:00,760 --> 00:11:04,760 Speaker 2: approach game is important. It's really a whole bag type course. 186 00:11:05,160 --> 00:11:07,959 Speaker 2: But the most important club in the bag is right 187 00:11:08,040 --> 00:11:11,320 Speaker 2: up here. Because if you don't have a plan for 188 00:11:11,360 --> 00:11:15,720 Speaker 2: each hole, for each shot, for each lie, it's the 189 00:11:15,800 --> 00:11:18,280 Speaker 2: kind of place that just tears you up. It's not 190 00:11:19,000 --> 00:11:21,760 Speaker 2: if you're playing from the fairway and on the green 191 00:11:22,400 --> 00:11:25,400 Speaker 2: you can shoot fifteen to twenty under par. Here it's 192 00:11:25,400 --> 00:11:27,600 Speaker 2: a shorter course. Some of these guys can go out 193 00:11:27,600 --> 00:11:30,160 Speaker 2: there and make a lot of good scores on this course, 194 00:11:30,200 --> 00:11:33,880 Speaker 2: but one little slip up and that's all it takes. 195 00:11:33,920 --> 00:11:37,800 Speaker 2: And that's why there has never been a repeat champion 196 00:11:37,840 --> 00:11:40,800 Speaker 2: at the Players, not one in fifty years of history. 197 00:11:41,280 --> 00:11:46,640 Speaker 2: So that tells you the variability that's here is it 198 00:11:46,640 --> 00:11:48,960 Speaker 2: doesn't matter how good you fit this course, how well 199 00:11:49,000 --> 00:11:51,640 Speaker 2: you've played it in the past. Every time you go 200 00:11:51,640 --> 00:11:54,240 Speaker 2: out there and play TPC Sagras and you're running around 201 00:11:54,280 --> 00:11:58,360 Speaker 2: eighteen holes, anything can happen. There is no such thing 202 00:11:58,400 --> 00:12:00,760 Speaker 2: as wow. I can't believe that happened into the players 203 00:12:01,080 --> 00:12:04,439 Speaker 2: because it's all on the table. Scotty Scheffler could shoot 204 00:12:04,440 --> 00:12:07,079 Speaker 2: a seventy eight here. He could also shoot a sixty 205 00:12:07,120 --> 00:12:10,560 Speaker 2: one here. You don't know. This is the kind of 206 00:12:10,559 --> 00:12:13,920 Speaker 2: place where everything is ready to go. All bets are off, 207 00:12:14,360 --> 00:12:17,520 Speaker 2: but we're going to bet hunt it anyway. And it 208 00:12:17,600 --> 00:12:20,360 Speaker 2: is Bermuda greens, he said, POA, But I think your 209 00:12:20,360 --> 00:12:23,360 Speaker 2: heart is still in California. 210 00:12:24,840 --> 00:12:28,000 Speaker 1: Yeah, no, it actually is POA bow I guess apparently 211 00:12:28,360 --> 00:12:30,480 Speaker 1: used to be Bermuda. But there's some sort of issue 212 00:12:30,520 --> 00:12:33,440 Speaker 1: with the greens. So these are POA greens this year. 213 00:12:34,640 --> 00:12:40,080 Speaker 1: You're classified as such right on the official PGA Tour website. Yeah, 214 00:12:40,360 --> 00:12:44,160 Speaker 1: I'm not exactly sure why these are not classified as 215 00:12:44,200 --> 00:12:45,360 Speaker 1: Bermuda greens. 216 00:12:45,679 --> 00:12:48,760 Speaker 2: They're not. They are different. Yeah, it's you still have 217 00:12:48,840 --> 00:12:52,079 Speaker 2: the same kind of grain and get a little krusty 218 00:12:52,160 --> 00:12:53,400 Speaker 2: in the afternoon, you know. 219 00:12:54,120 --> 00:12:58,040 Speaker 1: Definitely, definitely, And yeah, I mean, Pete Die was definitely 220 00:12:58,040 --> 00:13:02,040 Speaker 1: in a sadistic mood when he designed Place. And one 221 00:13:02,080 --> 00:13:05,400 Speaker 1: of the interesting things I saw posted someone it was 222 00:13:05,400 --> 00:13:08,680 Speaker 1: a quote by Patrick Cantley about the course, and Can'tley 223 00:13:08,800 --> 00:13:10,600 Speaker 1: was talking about, you know how a lot of players 224 00:13:10,640 --> 00:13:15,280 Speaker 1: want they're tempted to the temptation is to bail out 225 00:13:15,440 --> 00:13:19,599 Speaker 1: when you see water off the tee, but can't like 226 00:13:19,760 --> 00:13:23,199 Speaker 1: things Die made it so that, like, there are almost 227 00:13:23,960 --> 00:13:28,439 Speaker 1: things more diabolical than water awaiting you if you bail 228 00:13:28,480 --> 00:13:31,000 Speaker 1: out and miss, like if you uh, you know, water 229 00:13:31,040 --> 00:13:35,280 Speaker 1: on the right, if you hit miss left, then you're like, 230 00:13:35,559 --> 00:13:39,160 Speaker 1: you know, you're headed for Bogieville, basically because they're. 231 00:13:39,720 --> 00:13:45,880 Speaker 2: Yeah, it's very commonly classified as a positional course where yes, 232 00:13:46,520 --> 00:13:50,680 Speaker 2: you have to be in position to score birdies and 233 00:13:50,800 --> 00:13:53,800 Speaker 2: if you're out of position you have to salvage pars 234 00:13:54,280 --> 00:13:56,800 Speaker 2: or even salvage bogies in a lot of cases because 235 00:13:56,800 --> 00:14:01,160 Speaker 2: of how many penalty areas there are many penalty areas 236 00:14:01,240 --> 00:14:04,319 Speaker 2: are directly where you want to hit the ball, and 237 00:14:04,600 --> 00:14:08,400 Speaker 2: that's it's it is. It's a it's a mind bleep 238 00:14:08,520 --> 00:14:11,079 Speaker 2: type of course. Pete Die is known for that across 239 00:14:11,120 --> 00:14:14,160 Speaker 2: all of his designs, but this is his, This is 240 00:14:14,240 --> 00:14:17,440 Speaker 2: his Mona Lisa, This has all the nuance. But it's 241 00:14:17,520 --> 00:14:20,240 Speaker 2: really it's as straightforward as it gets for a golf 242 00:14:20,280 --> 00:14:23,880 Speaker 2: course because everybody knows where you're supposed to hit the ball. 243 00:14:24,480 --> 00:14:27,000 Speaker 2: But the beauty of golf is you can't just go 244 00:14:27,120 --> 00:14:29,440 Speaker 2: out there and place your ball where you wanted to go. 245 00:14:29,960 --> 00:14:35,160 Speaker 2: It's it's all about like being mentally fortified and executing 246 00:14:35,200 --> 00:14:37,520 Speaker 2: the shots that you want to hit in the order 247 00:14:37,560 --> 00:14:39,760 Speaker 2: that you're supposed to hit them. And that's why Scotty 248 00:14:39,840 --> 00:14:42,160 Speaker 2: ran away with it last year because he was dialed in. 249 00:14:42,360 --> 00:14:45,280 Speaker 2: He was so dialed and that's that's what it takes 250 00:14:45,320 --> 00:14:48,720 Speaker 2: to win. The players and it's it's kind of crazy 251 00:14:48,760 --> 00:14:51,080 Speaker 2: that nobody has gone back to back here in the 252 00:14:51,200 --> 00:14:52,040 Speaker 2: history of the event. 253 00:14:53,080 --> 00:14:56,040 Speaker 1: That is wild, especially when you consider, you know, some 254 00:14:56,080 --> 00:15:00,600 Speaker 1: of the big names of won here, Rory McElroy, Scotty, Surge, YOI, 255 00:15:01,520 --> 00:15:02,920 Speaker 1: Tiger exactly. 256 00:15:02,840 --> 00:15:06,720 Speaker 2: Scotch everybody. All these counts have just run through and 257 00:15:08,400 --> 00:15:08,920 Speaker 2: it's weird. 258 00:15:10,000 --> 00:15:12,280 Speaker 1: Yeah, So we'll get to the odds in just a minute. 259 00:15:12,280 --> 00:15:14,240 Speaker 1: But first, if you want a chance to win a 260 00:15:14,280 --> 00:15:17,640 Speaker 1: free one year Premium Betting Pro subscription, you need to 261 00:15:17,840 --> 00:15:20,800 Speaker 1: subscribe to the Betting Pros YouTube channel right now, comment 262 00:15:20,840 --> 00:15:23,320 Speaker 1: below in this video and that's it. We'll be announcing 263 00:15:23,320 --> 00:15:25,200 Speaker 1: we'll win it right here on the channel. So make 264 00:15:25,240 --> 00:15:27,440 Speaker 1: sure to turn on those notifications so you can be 265 00:15:27,440 --> 00:15:31,400 Speaker 1: alerted when new episodes are up and to claim your prize. 266 00:15:31,680 --> 00:15:35,080 Speaker 1: You'll never guess who's favor this week. BO. It's Scotti 267 00:15:35,160 --> 00:15:39,840 Speaker 1: Scheffler at plus five point fifty. As mentioned earlier, he 268 00:15:39,920 --> 00:15:42,600 Speaker 1: won by five shots here last year. He's coming off 269 00:15:42,600 --> 00:15:46,960 Speaker 1: a five shot victory. Rory McElroy's plus twelve hundred. Xander 270 00:15:47,000 --> 00:15:51,320 Speaker 1: Schoffley is plus two thousand, Justin Thomas's plus twenty two hundred, 271 00:15:51,800 --> 00:15:54,400 Speaker 1: Victor Havlin, Patrick Cantlay and Max Homer are all at 272 00:15:54,400 --> 00:15:58,400 Speaker 1: plus twenty five hundred. Will Zlaturus and Colin Marrakawa are 273 00:15:58,440 --> 00:16:02,120 Speaker 1: plus twenty eight hundred. Matsuyama is at plus three thousand, 274 00:16:02,440 --> 00:16:05,760 Speaker 1: and at plus thirty five hundred our Shane Lowry, Sam Burns, 275 00:16:05,840 --> 00:16:11,160 Speaker 1: Jordan Speith and Ludwig Aubert. Which of these guys the 276 00:16:11,200 --> 00:16:16,240 Speaker 1: guys with shorter odds? BO, do you like at cost? Well? 277 00:16:16,560 --> 00:16:19,680 Speaker 2: I don't like Scotty Scheffler. It's cost this week. I 278 00:16:19,760 --> 00:16:21,600 Speaker 2: threw him out there because I got a plus seven 279 00:16:21,680 --> 00:16:26,880 Speaker 2: hundred number last week. This week with it being, nobody's 280 00:16:26,920 --> 00:16:30,160 Speaker 2: ever been a repeat champion, not even Tiger or not anybody. 281 00:16:30,680 --> 00:16:33,760 Speaker 2: Nobody's ever gone back to back here. So for that 282 00:16:33,960 --> 00:16:39,479 Speaker 2: very reason, the variability, the wild things that happen at TPC, Sawgrass, 283 00:16:40,240 --> 00:16:44,080 Speaker 2: I'm out on Scotty Scheffler this week. The next guy, 284 00:16:44,160 --> 00:16:47,400 Speaker 2: Rory McElroy, I'm completely out on because his wedge game 285 00:16:47,440 --> 00:16:50,400 Speaker 2: has been atrocious lately. I mentioned it last week when 286 00:16:50,440 --> 00:16:52,520 Speaker 2: I faded him last week. Is that what was going 287 00:16:52,560 --> 00:16:55,440 Speaker 2: to get him into trouble was on approach and around 288 00:16:55,440 --> 00:16:59,920 Speaker 2: the greens, and sure enough it came to fruition on Sunday. 289 00:17:00,320 --> 00:17:05,800 Speaker 2: Rory struggled mightily around the greens on Sunday at bay Hill, 290 00:17:06,280 --> 00:17:08,679 Speaker 2: and he's scuffling right now for him to come in. 291 00:17:08,760 --> 00:17:11,240 Speaker 2: He opened it at plus eighteen hundred number, he's down 292 00:17:11,280 --> 00:17:14,200 Speaker 2: to plus twelve hundred as people start to take advantage 293 00:17:14,240 --> 00:17:17,960 Speaker 2: of that, pretty easy line to hit for Rory, somebody 294 00:17:17,960 --> 00:17:20,840 Speaker 2: who's a world class player, he always has a puncher's 295 00:17:20,920 --> 00:17:23,600 Speaker 2: chance here, but it's not his type. Of course, you 296 00:17:23,680 --> 00:17:28,560 Speaker 2: can't overpower Sawgrass. It just isn't possible. Xanderschoffley's a guy 297 00:17:28,560 --> 00:17:32,520 Speaker 2: I'm starting with at plus two thousand, with an honorable 298 00:17:32,560 --> 00:17:34,440 Speaker 2: mention to the guy right next to him at plus 299 00:17:34,440 --> 00:17:38,760 Speaker 2: twenty two hundred, Justin Thomas. Those two guys epitomize what 300 00:17:38,840 --> 00:17:41,040 Speaker 2: I want to hit. What I want in a player here, 301 00:17:41,320 --> 00:17:45,520 Speaker 2: and that's an intelligent player who's lethal from one hundred 302 00:17:45,560 --> 00:17:46,640 Speaker 2: and fifty yards an inn. 303 00:17:47,320 --> 00:17:51,200 Speaker 1: What about Victor Hovland not in top form right now, 304 00:17:51,720 --> 00:17:55,000 Speaker 1: but he finished third at the players last year ninth 305 00:17:55,040 --> 00:17:58,199 Speaker 1: and twenty twenty two. Any interest there or just not 306 00:17:58,280 --> 00:18:00,000 Speaker 1: a good enough price in the guy who really has 307 00:18:00,040 --> 00:18:02,359 Speaker 1: hasn't hit stride yet. No. 308 00:18:02,440 --> 00:18:06,440 Speaker 2: I would say his odds are soft for what kind 309 00:18:06,480 --> 00:18:09,439 Speaker 2: of player he is. What's kind of held him back 310 00:18:09,440 --> 00:18:13,120 Speaker 2: from winning has traditionally been his short game, But it's 311 00:18:14,400 --> 00:18:17,240 Speaker 2: solid enough where I feel like twenty five hundred is 312 00:18:17,320 --> 00:18:21,720 Speaker 2: kind of short selling him. I like that number for him. 313 00:18:22,119 --> 00:18:25,080 Speaker 2: I probably won't bet on him there just because of 314 00:18:25,080 --> 00:18:27,879 Speaker 2: the recent form and there has been some concern with 315 00:18:27,960 --> 00:18:31,119 Speaker 2: his wrist not being at one hundred percent. Doesn't seem 316 00:18:31,160 --> 00:18:34,199 Speaker 2: to take anything away from his overall game. But I 317 00:18:34,400 --> 00:18:37,920 Speaker 2: just think in a place like this, where the winners 318 00:18:38,040 --> 00:18:42,080 Speaker 2: usually just have an immaculate short game. It's just it's 319 00:18:42,280 --> 00:18:46,160 Speaker 2: not there for me, especially compared to guys like Xander 320 00:18:46,200 --> 00:18:50,280 Speaker 2: and JT and even Max Homa and all these guys 321 00:18:50,320 --> 00:18:53,000 Speaker 2: that are playing lights out right now. Those are the 322 00:18:53,040 --> 00:18:55,400 Speaker 2: guys that I'd rather play at that in that range 323 00:18:55,640 --> 00:18:58,720 Speaker 2: rather than just trying to guess when an amazing player 324 00:18:58,800 --> 00:19:00,160 Speaker 2: might round back into. 325 00:19:01,119 --> 00:19:04,400 Speaker 1: I'm sort of mildly interested in Max Homa finished eighth 326 00:19:04,560 --> 00:19:07,639 Speaker 1: last week at bay Hill, sixteenth in his second and 327 00:19:07,720 --> 00:19:11,199 Speaker 1: last tournament, which was the Genesis, finished sixth at the 328 00:19:11,280 --> 00:19:14,960 Speaker 1: Players Championship last year and thirteenth two years ago, so 329 00:19:16,160 --> 00:19:22,480 Speaker 1: decent combination of course form and recent form. He interests me. 330 00:19:22,600 --> 00:19:24,760 Speaker 1: Let me ask you this ball, of the two guys 331 00:19:24,800 --> 00:19:29,080 Speaker 1: at plus twenty eight hundred, will Zalatoris and Colin Morikawa, 332 00:19:29,840 --> 00:19:31,280 Speaker 1: who do you think is the better value? 333 00:19:32,119 --> 00:19:35,320 Speaker 2: I think Morikawa is a better value here because he's 334 00:19:35,520 --> 00:19:39,240 Speaker 2: still a world class player. He's still from tee to 335 00:19:39,320 --> 00:19:41,639 Speaker 2: green as good as it gets. I think if he 336 00:19:41,720 --> 00:19:44,159 Speaker 2: finds a hot putter here, which he tends to do 337 00:19:44,280 --> 00:19:47,600 Speaker 2: well at these kinds of places with more undulating greens, 338 00:19:47,640 --> 00:19:50,480 Speaker 2: where he's as smart as it gets on the PGA tour, 339 00:19:50,520 --> 00:19:54,240 Speaker 2: I'd rather play him, because people forget just how great 340 00:19:54,320 --> 00:19:57,320 Speaker 2: this guy is, especially when things get tough. When he 341 00:19:57,359 --> 00:19:59,840 Speaker 2: won that Open championship, and when he won that US 342 00:20:00,040 --> 00:20:02,760 Speaker 2: Open a couple of years ago, it was just like, Oh, 343 00:20:02,880 --> 00:20:06,280 Speaker 2: the tougher it gets, the better. Colomora Kawa plays if 344 00:20:06,359 --> 00:20:09,320 Speaker 2: the If the wind freshens up here and you start 345 00:20:09,359 --> 00:20:12,160 Speaker 2: to get these high ball flight guys start to balloon 346 00:20:12,240 --> 00:20:14,840 Speaker 2: up in the wind and find themselves in more penalty areas, 347 00:20:15,280 --> 00:20:17,119 Speaker 2: Pallamore cow is gonna be the kind of guy that 348 00:20:17,240 --> 00:20:21,399 Speaker 2: can be use his creativity and intelligence to to to 349 00:20:21,440 --> 00:20:24,840 Speaker 2: stay the course and make this thing interesting and for 350 00:20:24,960 --> 00:20:26,919 Speaker 2: him to be at the odds that he's at, and 351 00:20:26,960 --> 00:20:30,600 Speaker 2: pretty much a lot of great players here are getting 352 00:20:30,720 --> 00:20:34,160 Speaker 2: much softer odds than I expected because of how favored 353 00:20:34,200 --> 00:20:37,919 Speaker 2: Scheffler is, because of how short Rory still is, a 354 00:20:37,960 --> 00:20:40,800 Speaker 2: lot of these guys are getting pretty disrespected by the 355 00:20:40,840 --> 00:20:44,479 Speaker 2: books because everybody expects Scotty to win here. And I 356 00:20:44,520 --> 00:20:48,800 Speaker 2: think that that's that's an exploitative figure to pay attention to. 357 00:20:49,920 --> 00:20:53,240 Speaker 1: I feel like Xalatoris might be the better value, honestly. 358 00:20:53,320 --> 00:20:57,160 Speaker 1: Ball fourth last week at Bayhill, second at the Genesis 359 00:20:57,280 --> 00:21:01,600 Speaker 1: last month. He's rolling and the ball striking. I feel 360 00:21:01,600 --> 00:21:05,200 Speaker 1: like he's been playing as well Tea Green as more Kawa, 361 00:21:05,200 --> 00:21:09,760 Speaker 1: if not better. Lately. The track record at Sawgrass isn't great, 362 00:21:09,800 --> 00:21:13,960 Speaker 1: but not horrible either. Three previous appearances twenty first, twenty 363 00:21:14,000 --> 00:21:18,639 Speaker 1: six and seventy third. But man, the recent form the 364 00:21:18,680 --> 00:21:20,639 Speaker 1: slender Man is back, baby. 365 00:21:20,720 --> 00:21:24,640 Speaker 2: Yeah, he's He's absolutely the real deal. And I'm disappointed 366 00:21:24,640 --> 00:21:27,160 Speaker 2: that I wasn't right about him last week at thirty 367 00:21:27,240 --> 00:21:30,359 Speaker 2: to one, because that was the guy that would have 368 00:21:30,400 --> 00:21:34,040 Speaker 2: paid me the most money. But he's done great. The 369 00:21:34,119 --> 00:21:38,840 Speaker 2: problem with TPC Sawgrass is it chews up those unsure, 370 00:21:39,080 --> 00:21:41,960 Speaker 2: not confident putters, Like his putting's been so much better, 371 00:21:42,320 --> 00:21:46,120 Speaker 2: but he's still not a confident putter. And you absolutely 372 00:21:46,240 --> 00:21:49,080 Speaker 2: have to be a confident putter on these greens because 373 00:21:49,080 --> 00:21:51,840 Speaker 2: they have so much nuance to them. There's so many 374 00:21:51,840 --> 00:21:54,439 Speaker 2: ways to attack these greens that can get you into trouble. 375 00:21:55,440 --> 00:21:59,280 Speaker 2: Just those five six footers for par We're giving Zalator's 376 00:21:59,320 --> 00:22:01,960 Speaker 2: fits down the stretch last week, and that could kill 377 00:22:02,040 --> 00:22:04,800 Speaker 2: him here. That's part of the reason why he struggled 378 00:22:04,840 --> 00:22:06,879 Speaker 2: here so much, because it doesn't matter how good you 379 00:22:06,920 --> 00:22:09,440 Speaker 2: are from Tita Green. If you can't sink those putts, 380 00:22:09,800 --> 00:22:14,080 Speaker 2: those very vital putts in that five to ten foot range. 381 00:22:14,880 --> 00:22:17,320 Speaker 2: I wouldn't put my money on him at all here, 382 00:22:17,800 --> 00:22:20,640 Speaker 2: especially with that being in the back of my mind 383 00:22:20,680 --> 00:22:23,040 Speaker 2: from the last couple of weeks where he hasn't been 384 00:22:23,040 --> 00:22:25,720 Speaker 2: able to get over the hump because he misses crucial 385 00:22:25,800 --> 00:22:32,280 Speaker 2: putts at every turn. Here's the main guy in this range, 386 00:22:32,359 --> 00:22:34,479 Speaker 2: and you might already be ready to tee him up 387 00:22:34,480 --> 00:22:37,920 Speaker 2: for me, But the last couple tournaments, we've been like, oh, 388 00:22:38,040 --> 00:22:40,760 Speaker 2: Shane Lowry here, Shane Lowry there, and he's just fallen 389 00:22:40,800 --> 00:22:43,359 Speaker 2: apart every Sunday. I think Shane Lowry wins this. 390 00:22:43,400 --> 00:22:45,640 Speaker 1: Tournament really interesting. 391 00:22:45,680 --> 00:22:48,880 Speaker 2: I think he fits this place like a glove. He's 392 00:22:48,920 --> 00:22:51,920 Speaker 2: as smart as it gets, he's crafty, he's a grinder, 393 00:22:52,520 --> 00:22:55,000 Speaker 2: and he's got a little bit of a chip on 394 00:22:55,040 --> 00:22:57,720 Speaker 2: his shoulder because he's kind of fallen flat with a 395 00:22:57,840 --> 00:23:01,200 Speaker 2: chance to win the last two events. And I think 396 00:23:01,240 --> 00:23:03,000 Speaker 2: that this is the kind of place where he can 397 00:23:03,119 --> 00:23:07,240 Speaker 2: really exert his ability on this golf course. And he's 398 00:23:07,240 --> 00:23:09,080 Speaker 2: played well here in the past, and I just I 399 00:23:09,680 --> 00:23:12,840 Speaker 2: can't get it out of my imagination that Shane Lowry 400 00:23:12,920 --> 00:23:14,640 Speaker 2: is going to shut a lot of people up this week. 401 00:23:15,040 --> 00:23:17,560 Speaker 1: Interesting, Yeah, I'd like to do it. With the way 402 00:23:17,600 --> 00:23:20,760 Speaker 1: he's closed, I just can't bring myself to pull the 403 00:23:20,800 --> 00:23:21,720 Speaker 1: trickery burned. 404 00:23:21,840 --> 00:23:24,080 Speaker 2: He's burned so many people last couple of weeks. But 405 00:23:24,119 --> 00:23:25,560 Speaker 2: that's kind of where I was like. I was like, 406 00:23:25,880 --> 00:23:28,399 Speaker 2: I haven't been really on Shane Lowry last couple of weeks, 407 00:23:29,119 --> 00:23:32,560 Speaker 2: but now that everybody's kind of off him, it's it 408 00:23:32,600 --> 00:23:33,880 Speaker 2: fe feels right. 409 00:23:34,680 --> 00:23:37,520 Speaker 1: He has mostly been on fire during the Florida Swing 410 00:23:37,560 --> 00:23:41,240 Speaker 1: and obviously very comfortable now he's made makes his home 411 00:23:41,280 --> 00:23:44,320 Speaker 1: at Jupiter, Florida. Again. We talked about this with the 412 00:23:44,359 --> 00:23:47,000 Speaker 1: wind at Bay Hill. The Irishman is not going to 413 00:23:47,040 --> 00:23:49,119 Speaker 1: feel out of sorts at all if the wind starts 414 00:23:49,160 --> 00:23:54,520 Speaker 1: blowing like that, and I can't help it feel like 415 00:23:54,560 --> 00:23:58,160 Speaker 1: Kadeki Matsiama's ball striking should play well this week at 416 00:23:58,200 --> 00:24:02,159 Speaker 1: Sawgrass putting. You never know how that's gonna be, but 417 00:24:02,640 --> 00:24:05,840 Speaker 1: he's had three top ten finishes in this event and 418 00:24:05,960 --> 00:24:10,000 Speaker 1: six top twenty fives. Let's take a look at the 419 00:24:10,000 --> 00:24:12,680 Speaker 1: odds for some of the mid price guys. Bow Wyndham 420 00:24:12,720 --> 00:24:16,119 Speaker 1: Clark at plus four thousand, Tommy Fleetwood, Russell Henley and 421 00:24:16,160 --> 00:24:19,159 Speaker 1: Cameron Young are all at plus forty five hundred. At 422 00:24:19,160 --> 00:24:22,120 Speaker 1: plus five thousand, we've got Seawou, kim See, Heath Degala, 423 00:24:22,359 --> 00:24:25,960 Speaker 1: Jason Day and Brian Harmon. At plus six thousand are 424 00:24:25,960 --> 00:24:29,720 Speaker 1: Corey Connors, Tony Fino, and Tom Hogy. And we've got 425 00:24:29,760 --> 00:24:32,679 Speaker 1: Ben On at plus sixty five hundred. Do you like 426 00:24:32,760 --> 00:24:33,720 Speaker 1: anyone from this group? 427 00:24:34,359 --> 00:24:37,040 Speaker 2: Yeah, this group I'm gonna pepper because this is one 428 00:24:37,480 --> 00:24:41,240 Speaker 2: of my most diverse betting cards of the year. Again, 429 00:24:41,320 --> 00:24:43,680 Speaker 2: I'm playing into the variability of the tournament, so I'm 430 00:24:43,680 --> 00:24:46,560 Speaker 2: playing a lot of different guys with different pieces of 431 00:24:46,600 --> 00:24:49,960 Speaker 2: their game that I like to fit here. So I 432 00:24:50,119 --> 00:24:54,320 Speaker 2: really like Russell Henley here. He's been playing great lately. 433 00:24:55,040 --> 00:24:57,880 Speaker 2: I really like Brian Harmon here, and I almost never 434 00:24:58,040 --> 00:25:02,000 Speaker 2: like playing Brian Harmon, but Brian Harmon is exactly what 435 00:25:02,040 --> 00:25:04,840 Speaker 2: I want on this course. This guy's nails around the green, 436 00:25:04,920 --> 00:25:09,920 Speaker 2: he's nails putting for par He's accurate, he's crafty, he's 437 00:25:10,119 --> 00:25:12,640 Speaker 2: just the perfect fit at fifty to one. I love 438 00:25:12,680 --> 00:25:15,720 Speaker 2: Brian Harmon and a little bit of a sleepy guy 439 00:25:15,760 --> 00:25:18,719 Speaker 2: that people aren't really talking about who's been playing a 440 00:25:18,760 --> 00:25:24,160 Speaker 2: lot better is Sahiala. Saigala has an incredible short game, 441 00:25:24,440 --> 00:25:27,760 Speaker 2: and the one kind of bugaboo about him beforehand was 442 00:25:27,800 --> 00:25:30,840 Speaker 2: his approach game and he's off the tee accuracy. He 443 00:25:31,000 --> 00:25:33,280 Speaker 2: shored up both of those in a big way this season. 444 00:25:33,720 --> 00:25:36,560 Speaker 2: I think big things are on the horizon for Fiala, 445 00:25:36,600 --> 00:25:39,840 Speaker 2: and being able to leave the driver in the bag 446 00:25:39,920 --> 00:25:42,800 Speaker 2: sometimes is a good thing for a player who struggles 447 00:25:42,840 --> 00:25:46,399 Speaker 2: to find fairways with the driver. So his ability to 448 00:25:46,600 --> 00:25:49,320 Speaker 2: stick it close and of course get out of trouble 449 00:25:49,400 --> 00:25:52,960 Speaker 2: with his short game that shouldn't go unnoticed. I really 450 00:25:53,040 --> 00:25:56,760 Speaker 2: like Thigala and then Minwu Lee fifty five to one 451 00:25:56,880 --> 00:25:59,320 Speaker 2: for a guy that talented, I think I'll take a 452 00:25:59,320 --> 00:26:02,560 Speaker 2: shot on a guy because if the conditions stay benign, 453 00:26:03,280 --> 00:26:06,880 Speaker 2: Minwu Lee has the firepower to go up and get 454 00:26:06,920 --> 00:26:09,520 Speaker 2: somebody like Scotty, even if he's having a good time. 455 00:26:10,080 --> 00:26:14,800 Speaker 1: Yeah, this is a really interesting group. Tommy Fleetwood in 456 00:26:14,880 --> 00:26:19,439 Speaker 1: his last five appearances here seventh, fifth, misscut, twenty second 457 00:26:19,440 --> 00:26:24,520 Speaker 1: and twenty seventh. Pretty good recent track record. Jason Day 458 00:26:25,000 --> 00:26:28,920 Speaker 1: has won here three top tens, five top twenties. Tom 459 00:26:28,960 --> 00:26:31,760 Speaker 1: Hogy has finished seventeenth or better in five of his 460 00:26:31,880 --> 00:26:35,600 Speaker 1: last seven events. And he finished third at Sawgrass last year. 461 00:26:36,400 --> 00:26:39,800 Speaker 1: So this is a pretty interesting group of mid range guys. 462 00:26:40,640 --> 00:26:43,880 Speaker 1: Both are some fascinating long shots in the field too 463 00:26:43,960 --> 00:26:46,439 Speaker 1: this week. Do any of them jump out to you? 464 00:26:47,000 --> 00:26:49,720 Speaker 2: Yeah, So anytime you're looking at a golf course that 465 00:26:49,840 --> 00:26:53,680 Speaker 2: demands accuracy, I'm going to take a shot on Brendan Todd, 466 00:26:53,720 --> 00:26:57,560 Speaker 2: who's coming in at plus ten thousand and then and 467 00:26:57,800 --> 00:26:59,840 Speaker 2: Doug Gimms getting a little bit of steam in my model. 468 00:27:00,040 --> 00:27:04,280 Speaker 2: I just hate playing him on tougher golf courses. Give 469 00:27:04,359 --> 00:27:07,040 Speaker 2: me a little bit of Billy Horsel because this dude 470 00:27:07,080 --> 00:27:10,800 Speaker 2: just plays Bermuda places so well. He's playing like crap 471 00:27:10,920 --> 00:27:14,520 Speaker 2: the last few weeks. But yeah, Billy Horsell is going 472 00:27:14,560 --> 00:27:16,680 Speaker 2: to get a little bit of love from me. And 473 00:27:16,760 --> 00:27:18,240 Speaker 2: I got to go right back to the well with 474 00:27:18,280 --> 00:27:20,359 Speaker 2: our guy Jake Knapp because one hundred and thirty to 475 00:27:20,359 --> 00:27:23,679 Speaker 2: one for a guy that talented, it doesn't make any sense. 476 00:27:24,240 --> 00:27:27,879 Speaker 1: Yeah, hopefully that twelve didn't rattle him too much. On 477 00:27:28,160 --> 00:27:30,600 Speaker 1: was that Saturday or Sunday? On the par five to 478 00:27:30,720 --> 00:27:36,480 Speaker 1: sixth at bay Hill, two water balls on the left side, 479 00:27:36,840 --> 00:27:39,679 Speaker 1: blows his third. Now he's hitting seven off the te 480 00:27:39,840 --> 00:27:43,040 Speaker 1: blows one out of bounds, takes an iron, flares it 481 00:27:43,160 --> 00:27:45,439 Speaker 1: like into the right rough and winds up making a twelve. 482 00:27:45,480 --> 00:27:48,720 Speaker 1: That was pretty wild, but you know, hopefully that didn't 483 00:27:48,720 --> 00:27:52,439 Speaker 1: mess with his psyche too badly. I'm kind of interested 484 00:27:52,440 --> 00:27:55,240 Speaker 1: in Keegan Bradley at eighty to one, been playing reasonably 485 00:27:55,280 --> 00:27:57,760 Speaker 1: while this year and has two top tens in his 486 00:27:57,880 --> 00:28:01,840 Speaker 1: last five appearances at Sawgrass. Keith Mitchell on ninety to one, 487 00:28:02,600 --> 00:28:05,960 Speaker 1: finished top twenty and three straight events and finished thirteenth 488 00:28:05,960 --> 00:28:10,879 Speaker 1: in this event two years ago. Boy, what about our 489 00:28:10,880 --> 00:28:14,000 Speaker 1: guy Reo? He sat Suni at three hundred to one bow. 490 00:28:14,800 --> 00:28:17,040 Speaker 2: And you can throw a shinam. I just don't know 491 00:28:17,080 --> 00:28:19,560 Speaker 2: that he's his bogey avoid for. 492 00:28:19,560 --> 00:28:23,560 Speaker 1: This born there. Yeah, our guy is that. 493 00:28:23,400 --> 00:28:25,800 Speaker 2: It's just being able to avoid the blow up holes 494 00:28:25,840 --> 00:28:28,399 Speaker 2: on tough courses. He can score on the easier ones, 495 00:28:28,440 --> 00:28:31,439 Speaker 2: but this might be the place that he puts some 496 00:28:31,520 --> 00:28:36,280 Speaker 2: crooked pictures on the scoreboard too. So it's for me 497 00:28:36,359 --> 00:28:39,040 Speaker 2: it's an appropriate number. But I mean, if you if 498 00:28:39,080 --> 00:28:43,240 Speaker 2: you really like the guy, then do it. But I 499 00:28:43,240 --> 00:28:45,320 Speaker 2: don't know, man, I just I kind of picture him 500 00:28:45,680 --> 00:28:48,160 Speaker 2: putting up some pretty big figures. 501 00:28:47,840 --> 00:28:50,800 Speaker 1: On play problem. I don't want to miss on our 502 00:28:51,160 --> 00:28:53,959 Speaker 1: guy akshay Batya. When it finally happens from me, he's 503 00:28:53,960 --> 00:28:56,400 Speaker 1: one hundred and eighty to one. And uh oh, you 504 00:28:56,440 --> 00:28:59,960 Speaker 1: know the guy, the guy who's dominating the Old Man's Tour, 505 00:29:00,120 --> 00:29:05,040 Speaker 1: Steve Stricker three and fifty to one. I mean, this 506 00:29:05,080 --> 00:29:10,640 Speaker 1: guy like is contends every week on the Champions Tour 507 00:29:10,960 --> 00:29:14,400 Speaker 1: and three one and he's got as. 508 00:29:14,240 --> 00:29:17,560 Speaker 2: Good as it gets around the greens. So it's not 509 00:29:17,600 --> 00:29:20,840 Speaker 2: like a tournament where distance matters. It's not a tournament 510 00:29:20,880 --> 00:29:25,440 Speaker 2: where having great ball speed and swing speed matters. None 511 00:29:25,480 --> 00:29:28,480 Speaker 2: of that matters here, but what matters is experience and 512 00:29:28,560 --> 00:29:30,920 Speaker 2: being able to put a good score on the card. 513 00:29:31,280 --> 00:29:34,360 Speaker 2: Steve Stricker is not going to beat himself and that's 514 00:29:34,400 --> 00:29:36,640 Speaker 2: that's more than you could say for half of this field. 515 00:29:37,000 --> 00:29:38,960 Speaker 2: Half of this field is going to knock themselves out 516 00:29:39,000 --> 00:29:41,920 Speaker 2: trying to get cute, and the golf course will take 517 00:29:41,960 --> 00:29:43,440 Speaker 2: that away from you very quickly. 518 00:29:44,240 --> 00:29:44,960 Speaker 1: So Stricker is. 519 00:29:44,960 --> 00:29:47,080 Speaker 2: Not a bad pick because of his short game, his 520 00:29:47,160 --> 00:29:51,400 Speaker 2: ability to grind you could take this place is just 521 00:29:51,560 --> 00:29:54,320 Speaker 2: wild off the charts with variants. Again, say it over 522 00:29:54,360 --> 00:29:57,080 Speaker 2: and over and over again. We have no clue what's 523 00:29:57,080 --> 00:29:59,040 Speaker 2: going to happen. At the Players Championship. But when we 524 00:29:59,080 --> 00:30:02,200 Speaker 2: can gather is that if all things are kind of 525 00:30:02,280 --> 00:30:05,960 Speaker 2: balanced and equal, we can pick out a prototype golfer 526 00:30:06,040 --> 00:30:08,840 Speaker 2: that can fit here and just hope for the best. 527 00:30:09,520 --> 00:30:13,400 Speaker 2: But Batilla is an intriguing pick because he's got the 528 00:30:13,440 --> 00:30:17,440 Speaker 2: wedge game and for a course like this, it's going 529 00:30:17,480 --> 00:30:21,480 Speaker 2: to demand a lot of like halfwood shots to knock 530 00:30:21,560 --> 00:30:24,080 Speaker 2: down iron shots just to fit it in the right 531 00:30:24,160 --> 00:30:27,160 Speaker 2: flight ball flight and to land in a very specific 532 00:30:27,280 --> 00:30:29,960 Speaker 2: area of the green. That's the strength of his game. 533 00:30:30,400 --> 00:30:31,640 Speaker 2: So I could see Batiya. 534 00:30:31,920 --> 00:30:34,080 Speaker 1: So what do you have on your betting card as 535 00:30:34,120 --> 00:30:35,520 Speaker 1: of now ball laying on me? 536 00:30:36,320 --> 00:30:39,000 Speaker 2: It's diverse. I have a lot going on here. I 537 00:30:39,040 --> 00:30:43,280 Speaker 2: do have outright bets at the top on Xander Shoffley 538 00:30:43,400 --> 00:30:47,280 Speaker 2: and Justin Thomas, and as well as top ten bets 539 00:30:47,320 --> 00:30:51,040 Speaker 2: on both. I'm going to drop down to Shane Lowry 540 00:30:51,080 --> 00:30:54,280 Speaker 2: with I'm doing the trifecta on Lowry because I feel 541 00:30:54,320 --> 00:30:56,280 Speaker 2: so strongly about it this week. I have an outright 542 00:30:56,400 --> 00:30:59,920 Speaker 2: top five and a top ten on Shane Lowry then, 543 00:31:00,000 --> 00:31:03,840 Speaker 2: and I'm going to go down to our guy, Brian Harmon. 544 00:31:03,920 --> 00:31:06,880 Speaker 2: I have an outright and a top twenty bet on him. Nope, 545 00:31:06,880 --> 00:31:11,280 Speaker 2: I lost it. There it goes, and my last bet 546 00:31:11,360 --> 00:31:14,080 Speaker 2: on the card down here. I haven't decided on a 547 00:31:14,080 --> 00:31:17,040 Speaker 2: lot of these long shots yet, but I am going 548 00:31:17,080 --> 00:31:20,080 Speaker 2: to throw some more on some JM who he did 549 00:31:20,120 --> 00:31:24,240 Speaker 2: not talk about, another good point and click cut type 550 00:31:24,240 --> 00:31:29,200 Speaker 2: of player here. But yeah, I'm still formulating the final 551 00:31:29,280 --> 00:31:31,520 Speaker 2: the final numbers, but Harmon is definitely going on the 552 00:31:31,560 --> 00:31:35,600 Speaker 2: card with Lowry, and then I'll probably the guys I 553 00:31:35,680 --> 00:31:38,240 Speaker 2: mentioned earlier. I'll throw in some top twenties and some 554 00:31:38,320 --> 00:31:41,880 Speaker 2: small outright bets. That's the key is the more confident 555 00:31:41,880 --> 00:31:44,520 Speaker 2: you are, the more you put on the outright and 556 00:31:44,560 --> 00:31:46,840 Speaker 2: then the less confident you are, or the more long 557 00:31:46,880 --> 00:31:49,680 Speaker 2: shot they are, the more you put on placement bets. 558 00:31:50,720 --> 00:31:53,160 Speaker 1: Yeah, that's reflected on my card as well. I am 559 00:31:53,200 --> 00:31:57,960 Speaker 1: betting Scottie Scheffler bow watching the way he potted, with 560 00:31:58,080 --> 00:31:59,960 Speaker 1: the way he's been hitting the ball, and I know 561 00:32:00,240 --> 00:32:02,640 Speaker 1: that we have not seen a repeat winner at this event, 562 00:32:02,680 --> 00:32:04,440 Speaker 1: but I feel like the way Scotty is playing, he 563 00:32:04,480 --> 00:32:07,440 Speaker 1: could very well be the first. So I'm betting him outright. 564 00:32:07,560 --> 00:32:10,000 Speaker 2: I'm the reason why it's plus five point. 565 00:32:09,800 --> 00:32:16,560 Speaker 1: Fifty's exactly I'm betting Will Zlatoris at plus twenty eight hundred. 566 00:32:16,840 --> 00:32:19,880 Speaker 1: I'm betting Keegan Bradley at eighty to one. I'm betting 567 00:32:19,960 --> 00:32:24,400 Speaker 1: Keith Mitchell at ninety to one, and uh, excuse me 568 00:32:24,880 --> 00:32:27,520 Speaker 1: not betting Keith Mitchell outright, but I'm betting him top 569 00:32:27,640 --> 00:32:31,480 Speaker 1: five at plus eighteen hundred. And then I have small 570 00:32:31,520 --> 00:32:35,239 Speaker 1: outrights on Justin Rose. Didn't talk about him, but at 571 00:32:35,240 --> 00:32:37,800 Speaker 1: one hundred to one, why not for a pretty good 572 00:32:37,800 --> 00:32:44,640 Speaker 1: ball striker. Aksha Beattilla and Steve Stricker. Small outrights on 573 00:32:44,720 --> 00:32:45,200 Speaker 1: those three. 574 00:32:45,480 --> 00:32:48,040 Speaker 2: So he just likes Stricker because he's from your neck 575 00:32:48,040 --> 00:32:48,680 Speaker 2: of the woods. 576 00:32:48,880 --> 00:32:51,800 Speaker 1: He's a Wisconsin boy. Of course, let's get to our 577 00:32:51,840 --> 00:32:55,160 Speaker 1: one and done picks. BO. Last week was a disappointing 578 00:32:55,160 --> 00:32:57,240 Speaker 1: one for both of us. You burned a big gun 579 00:32:57,320 --> 00:33:00,920 Speaker 1: on Victor Hovland. He finished tied for thirty, which was 580 00:33:01,000 --> 00:33:04,600 Speaker 1: worth eighty eight three and seventy five dollars. I got 581 00:33:04,600 --> 00:33:06,960 Speaker 1: a big fat goose. I got a Matthew Fitzpatrick who 582 00:33:06,960 --> 00:33:09,960 Speaker 1: missed the cut. You're up nearly two million on me 583 00:33:10,080 --> 00:33:12,360 Speaker 1: and you are up first this week. Who are you taking? 584 00:33:13,480 --> 00:33:16,480 Speaker 2: Man? How did the only like six guys missed the cut? 585 00:33:16,520 --> 00:33:18,480 Speaker 2: How did you pick one? 586 00:33:18,760 --> 00:33:23,600 Speaker 1: No? Kidding, no kidding. Elevated events where fifty guys what 587 00:33:23,680 --> 00:33:28,280 Speaker 1: was it, fifty money, fifty out of seventy plus anyone 588 00:33:28,320 --> 00:33:30,840 Speaker 1: within ten shots of the lead. Yet I somehow picked 589 00:33:30,840 --> 00:33:32,040 Speaker 1: one of the guys who missed the cut. 590 00:33:32,280 --> 00:33:34,320 Speaker 2: Go figure, Well, you probably guessed that I'm going to 591 00:33:34,360 --> 00:33:35,040 Speaker 2: go Shane. 592 00:33:34,760 --> 00:33:42,160 Speaker 1: Lowry, Shane Lowry it is. I'm gonna save Scotty. I'm 593 00:33:42,200 --> 00:33:44,560 Speaker 1: already betting him, but I am going to go with 594 00:33:45,560 --> 00:33:47,720 Speaker 1: I'm going to go with will Zala Tauris this. 595 00:33:47,760 --> 00:33:52,360 Speaker 2: Week, Lazi going with the Slender Man. I actually I 596 00:33:52,400 --> 00:33:55,880 Speaker 2: am hoping he does well for you because I'm just 597 00:33:55,880 --> 00:33:57,000 Speaker 2: a big fan of his game. 598 00:33:57,360 --> 00:33:59,520 Speaker 1: And that is it for this week's show. I want 599 00:33:59,560 --> 00:34:02,840 Speaker 1: to thank our sponsor, Underdog Fantasy. Sign up for Underdog 600 00:34:02,880 --> 00:34:05,480 Speaker 1: with the promo code BP Golf to get your first 601 00:34:05,480 --> 00:34:08,520 Speaker 1: deposit matched up to one hundred dollars plus a special 602 00:34:08,560 --> 00:34:11,000 Speaker 1: pick available for you in the lobby, and please come 603 00:34:11,080 --> 00:34:12,960 Speaker 1: join Bow and I again next week when we will 604 00:34:12,960 --> 00:34:18,720 Speaker 1: be previewing the Volspar Championship. Until then, so long everyone. 605 00:34:18,719 --> 00:34:21,320 Speaker 3: Thanks for listening to the Betting Pros podcast. 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