1 00:00:04,200 --> 00:00:07,840 Speaker 1: Hello, and welcome to Stephanomics, the podcast that brings the 2 00:00:07,840 --> 00:00:16,720 Speaker 1: global economy to you. Women aren't having babies anymore. Well 3 00:00:16,760 --> 00:00:19,240 Speaker 1: they are, but they're having a lot fewer of them, 4 00:00:19,360 --> 00:00:22,840 Speaker 1: especially in parts of Europe and Japan. If that's the 5 00:00:22,920 --> 00:00:26,200 Speaker 1: future for all of us, the declining birth rate could 6 00:00:26,200 --> 00:00:31,840 Speaker 1: have big implications for the economy, society, and everything. Later 7 00:00:31,880 --> 00:00:34,400 Speaker 1: in the program, I'll be talking to a Canadian academic, 8 00:00:34,479 --> 00:00:37,559 Speaker 1: Darryl Bricker, who thinks that all the big problems the 9 00:00:37,560 --> 00:00:40,400 Speaker 1: world will be facing in fifty years time will relate 10 00:00:40,479 --> 00:00:43,920 Speaker 1: in some way to a falling population. I'll also chat 11 00:00:43,960 --> 00:00:47,640 Speaker 1: to Bloomberg columnist Justin Fox about why people who work 12 00:00:47,720 --> 00:00:51,720 Speaker 1: from home are now the best paid US workers. But first, 13 00:00:51,880 --> 00:00:55,920 Speaker 1: Bloomberg's economy reporter in Madrid, Jeanette Newman, has been to 14 00:00:55,960 --> 00:00:59,240 Speaker 1: the epicenter of Europe's baby bust to get a glimpse 15 00:00:59,360 --> 00:01:16,039 Speaker 1: of what might be your head. Nine women sit around 16 00:01:16,040 --> 00:01:18,720 Speaker 1: a table at a health clinic in northern Spain. They're 17 00:01:18,720 --> 00:01:21,240 Speaker 1: talking about why their home region of a Studius has 18 00:01:21,280 --> 00:01:24,679 Speaker 1: the lowest fertility rate in the European Union. Those that 19 00:01:24,720 --> 00:01:27,600 Speaker 1: don't have work blame the bad labor market. Those that 20 00:01:27,680 --> 00:01:31,039 Speaker 1: do have a job, blame long working hours. All the 21 00:01:31,080 --> 00:01:33,600 Speaker 1: women have one or two children. If it weren't for 22 00:01:33,640 --> 00:01:36,760 Speaker 1: their own parents stepping into babysit, most days, the women 23 00:01:36,800 --> 00:01:40,640 Speaker 1: say they wouldn't make it. Those problems might sound familiar 24 00:01:40,640 --> 00:01:43,119 Speaker 1: to many women, but in a studius they have them 25 00:01:43,120 --> 00:01:46,160 Speaker 1: in spades. Most of the local coal mines have closed 26 00:01:46,200 --> 00:01:49,600 Speaker 1: and the steel industry is in decline. The economy is shrinking. 27 00:01:49,840 --> 00:01:54,920 Speaker 1: The unemployment rate is four. Alba Scobio Sanchez is pregnant 28 00:01:54,920 --> 00:01:57,800 Speaker 1: with her first child at thirty one years old. She's 29 00:01:57,840 --> 00:01:59,600 Speaker 1: the only one among her group of friends in a 30 00:01:59,600 --> 00:02:05,680 Speaker 1: studio US who will have a kid. I always knew 31 00:02:05,760 --> 00:02:08,200 Speaker 1: that I wanted to have kids, even three, but I 32 00:02:08,280 --> 00:02:10,440 Speaker 1: kept putting it off because of all day and certainty 33 00:02:10,520 --> 00:02:13,560 Speaker 1: with jobs. Work life balance is a problem in Spain 34 00:02:13,600 --> 00:02:16,240 Speaker 1: in general, not just a studios. But here we have 35 00:02:16,280 --> 00:02:23,919 Speaker 1: the more serious problem that there's no work. In a studious, 36 00:02:24,040 --> 00:02:26,000 Speaker 1: women are likely to have an average of one point 37 00:02:26,080 --> 00:02:29,320 Speaker 1: zero three children, among the lowest fertility rates in the world. 38 00:02:29,880 --> 00:02:32,520 Speaker 1: The figure measures the average number of children a woman 39 00:02:32,600 --> 00:02:37,040 Speaker 1: is expected to have based on current fertility trends. The 40 00:02:37,120 --> 00:02:39,799 Speaker 1: number in his studius is well below the European Union 41 00:02:39,880 --> 00:02:42,840 Speaker 1: average of one point six children per woman, and that 42 00:02:42,960 --> 00:02:45,639 Speaker 1: EU average is under the two point one children per 43 00:02:45,639 --> 00:02:50,560 Speaker 1: woman that's necessary to maintain a stable population in a studius. 44 00:02:50,600 --> 00:02:54,919 Speaker 1: There have been more deaths than births since At the 45 00:02:54,960 --> 00:02:58,000 Speaker 1: same time, people in a Studios, like the rest of Spain, 46 00:02:58,480 --> 00:03:02,079 Speaker 1: live longer than almost everyone else. The average life expectancy 47 00:03:02,120 --> 00:03:06,160 Speaker 1: here is nearly eighty three years. Put those two demographic 48 00:03:06,200 --> 00:03:11,600 Speaker 1: trends together and you get a shrinking, aging population. Just 49 00:03:11,720 --> 00:03:13,639 Speaker 1: over a million people lived in the region in n 50 00:03:14,680 --> 00:03:18,440 Speaker 1: Since then, the population has fallen by about fifty over 51 00:03:18,480 --> 00:03:21,600 Speaker 1: the next decade. Economists expect the region to lose another 52 00:03:21,680 --> 00:03:25,880 Speaker 1: fifty thousand people. Sixty five year old on Hiles Montero 53 00:03:25,960 --> 00:03:29,120 Speaker 1: Garcia tells the women that those shifts have transformed her 54 00:03:29,120 --> 00:03:33,519 Speaker 1: own family in town. It's all of us older people 55 00:03:33,639 --> 00:03:37,040 Speaker 1: who remain here. There are no children, which are Detroit 56 00:03:37,240 --> 00:03:43,320 Speaker 1: or any town. The plunging fertility rate and rapidly aging 57 00:03:43,360 --> 00:03:46,880 Speaker 1: population in Asturias are an extreme example of a demographic 58 00:03:46,920 --> 00:03:53,360 Speaker 1: trend that's reshaping economies around the world. Remember studying Thomas 59 00:03:53,400 --> 00:03:57,000 Speaker 1: Malthus and economics during the past couple of centuries. Malthus 60 00:03:57,040 --> 00:04:01,280 Speaker 1: and other demographers were mainly concerned with over population. They 61 00:04:01,280 --> 00:04:03,520 Speaker 1: thought more people posed a threat to the supply of 62 00:04:03,520 --> 00:04:08,200 Speaker 1: food and water and to the environment. Mouthess it only war, 63 00:04:08,560 --> 00:04:12,320 Speaker 1: famine and disease would slow population growth. In fact, all 64 00:04:12,360 --> 00:04:15,200 Speaker 1: it took was an industrial revolution and letting women into 65 00:04:15,200 --> 00:04:19,760 Speaker 1: the workplace. Birth rates began to drop during the Industrial 66 00:04:19,800 --> 00:04:23,680 Speaker 1: Revolution as countries became more prosperous and mortality rates fell 67 00:04:24,080 --> 00:04:27,520 Speaker 1: across much of the world. Those declines accelerated in recent 68 00:04:27,560 --> 00:04:32,280 Speaker 1: decades as more women joined the labor market. Changing attitudes 69 00:04:32,320 --> 00:04:34,920 Speaker 1: about having and rearing children have also played a role. 70 00:04:35,360 --> 00:04:39,560 Speaker 1: Women are having fewer children and later in life. In 71 00:04:39,600 --> 00:04:42,400 Speaker 1: two thousand eighteen, countries such as the United States and 72 00:04:42,480 --> 00:04:47,000 Speaker 1: South Korea reported their lowest fertility rates ever. In nineteen seventy, 73 00:04:47,240 --> 00:04:49,240 Speaker 1: a woman in the US could be expected to have 74 00:04:49,320 --> 00:04:52,720 Speaker 1: an average of two point five children. Now she is 75 00:04:52,760 --> 00:04:55,640 Speaker 1: expected to have, on average, just over one point seven. 76 00:04:56,600 --> 00:05:00,280 Speaker 1: The concern in many countries then has become population de client. 77 00:05:09,920 --> 00:05:13,880 Speaker 1: Alejandro Macarone, a demographic expert and consultant, tells me that 78 00:05:13,920 --> 00:05:16,400 Speaker 1: a smaller number of kids will have a big impact 79 00:05:16,400 --> 00:05:20,279 Speaker 1: on businesses. We've spoken the children's clothing department at Spain's 80 00:05:20,320 --> 00:05:23,440 Speaker 1: largest department store a Quarte in Glaze. He has to 81 00:05:23,480 --> 00:05:27,600 Speaker 1: remind executives that demographic changes can sometimes explain weaker sales. 82 00:05:27,640 --> 00:05:30,800 Speaker 1: For instance, maybe they wonder why they're selling less than 83 00:05:31,440 --> 00:05:37,040 Speaker 1: ten years ago, but there are thirty percent less babies 84 00:05:37,680 --> 00:05:42,080 Speaker 1: last year into That might be one of the resents 85 00:05:42,800 --> 00:05:47,000 Speaker 1: an aging population consumes differently. Older people tend to consume 86 00:05:47,080 --> 00:05:50,520 Speaker 1: less so called durable goods, think fewer dishwashers and cars. 87 00:05:51,040 --> 00:05:54,040 Speaker 1: That also means they spend less on fuel. Those items 88 00:05:54,040 --> 00:05:56,280 Speaker 1: tend to bring in a lot of taxes, so more 89 00:05:56,320 --> 00:06:00,640 Speaker 1: sluggish sales can mean less in government coffers. Ignacio de 90 00:06:00,720 --> 00:06:03,880 Speaker 1: la Torre is chief economist that investment bank Arcano Group. 91 00:06:04,200 --> 00:06:06,400 Speaker 1: At his office in Madrid, he tells me that low 92 00:06:06,440 --> 00:06:10,880 Speaker 1: birth rates mean policymakers should focus on increasing productivity. Economic 93 00:06:10,920 --> 00:06:13,839 Speaker 1: growth just depends on two variables the number of hours 94 00:06:13,839 --> 00:06:17,240 Speaker 1: worked and productivity over worked and the number of hours 95 00:06:17,279 --> 00:06:19,920 Speaker 1: work and normany is pretty much linked to the growth 96 00:06:19,920 --> 00:06:24,640 Speaker 1: of your active population. Active population has started to decline 97 00:06:24,800 --> 00:06:27,200 Speaker 1: in the O city countries three years ago as well 98 00:06:27,240 --> 00:06:30,160 Speaker 1: as in China, which means that in the past we 99 00:06:30,279 --> 00:06:32,280 Speaker 1: had two engines of growth. Today we only have one 100 00:06:32,320 --> 00:06:36,640 Speaker 1: engine of growth, which is which is a productivity. During 101 00:06:36,680 --> 00:06:38,919 Speaker 1: the past twenty years in a Studios, the size of 102 00:06:38,920 --> 00:06:41,280 Speaker 1: the economy has shrunk. As a share of the broader 103 00:06:41,320 --> 00:06:45,680 Speaker 1: Spanish economy, Pensions and other government benefits make up around 104 00:06:45,680 --> 00:06:49,000 Speaker 1: fort of income for households. Here. That's a much greater 105 00:06:49,080 --> 00:06:52,000 Speaker 1: portion than in the rest of Spain. A Storius has 106 00:06:52,040 --> 00:06:56,880 Speaker 1: attracted some immigration to counter the ebbing population, but nothing significant. 107 00:06:57,240 --> 00:07:01,400 Speaker 1: Potential workers aren't drawn to the less dynamic economy. Those 108 00:07:01,440 --> 00:07:04,240 Speaker 1: who do immigrate are mainly from outside Spain. The head 109 00:07:04,279 --> 00:07:07,200 Speaker 1: of the statistics agency tells me they come to work 110 00:07:07,240 --> 00:07:10,880 Speaker 1: in one of the few industries that is booming, elderly care. 111 00:07:17,640 --> 00:07:20,240 Speaker 1: The mismatch of resources for young and old is on 112 00:07:20,280 --> 00:07:23,760 Speaker 1: display and the small town in Asturias where I spoke 113 00:07:23,800 --> 00:07:26,600 Speaker 1: with the women about the low fertility rate in the 114 00:07:26,640 --> 00:07:29,760 Speaker 1: town and the surrounding area, there are eight social centers 115 00:07:29,800 --> 00:07:33,480 Speaker 1: for elderly people and just one youth center. I visited 116 00:07:33,480 --> 00:07:36,600 Speaker 1: one of the centers for the elderly. Retirees take exercise 117 00:07:36,640 --> 00:07:40,560 Speaker 1: classes and play card games, which seemed to get pretty heated. 118 00:07:45,960 --> 00:07:49,679 Speaker 1: Manuel Tourado Garcia runs one of the centers. A former minor, 119 00:07:49,920 --> 00:07:52,160 Speaker 1: he has the build of someone who spent years breaking 120 00:07:52,160 --> 00:07:57,240 Speaker 1: coal with a sledgehammer. Well finished the year with eight 121 00:07:57,640 --> 00:07:59,880 Speaker 1: ninety seven members in a town of three thousand people. 122 00:08:00,120 --> 00:08:02,560 Speaker 1: That's a lot, but it's to be expected. We're in 123 00:08:02,560 --> 00:08:05,080 Speaker 1: a town that's growing old, the very old. You barely 124 00:08:05,080 --> 00:08:12,920 Speaker 1: see any kids around across town. I visit the only 125 00:08:12,960 --> 00:08:18,040 Speaker 1: youth center in the area. It's quiet. Manuel and Hillquista 126 00:08:18,360 --> 00:08:21,280 Speaker 1: is the manager. He says, the local government has long 127 00:08:21,320 --> 00:08:25,800 Speaker 1: dedicated greater resources toward older residents. They're more politically active 128 00:08:25,880 --> 00:08:32,960 Speaker 1: and organized than young voters. There is high use and employment, 129 00:08:33,200 --> 00:08:36,559 Speaker 1: which means they leave. It's a visious cycle because if 130 00:08:36,600 --> 00:08:39,640 Speaker 1: the young people live, then there are people here to 131 00:08:39,720 --> 00:08:43,760 Speaker 1: have kids, and therefore the birth rates go down. Look 132 00:08:43,800 --> 00:08:48,480 Speaker 1: at it, it's very difficult to down things around. Most 133 00:08:48,520 --> 00:08:51,440 Speaker 1: demographers agree with Manuel and Health the notable jump in 134 00:08:51,480 --> 00:08:54,560 Speaker 1: fertility rates is unlikely in a studious or elsewhere in 135 00:08:54,600 --> 00:08:58,520 Speaker 1: developed countries. But can anything be done to slightly boost 136 00:08:58,520 --> 00:09:00,960 Speaker 1: the fertility rate so that women can have the children 137 00:09:01,000 --> 00:09:04,200 Speaker 1: they want? An economist can rest somewhat assured about pensions 138 00:09:04,240 --> 00:09:08,120 Speaker 1: and productivity. South Korea has tried in an effort to 139 00:09:08,120 --> 00:09:11,680 Speaker 1: boost the world's lowest fertility rate Seoul has spent billions 140 00:09:11,679 --> 00:09:16,320 Speaker 1: on subsidized childcare, free nurseries and stipends to no avail. 141 00:09:18,040 --> 00:09:20,720 Speaker 1: That's in part because the measures have an addressed broader issues, 142 00:09:20,760 --> 00:09:23,840 Speaker 1: says Olivier Tavan, an O E c d economist. There 143 00:09:23,880 --> 00:09:26,240 Speaker 1: are a few top slots at the universities or in 144 00:09:26,240 --> 00:09:30,000 Speaker 1: the labor market that makes things very competitive, and many 145 00:09:30,000 --> 00:09:32,560 Speaker 1: women are still expected to stop working if they have 146 00:09:32,640 --> 00:09:36,840 Speaker 1: a child. Other countries, such as Russia and Hungary have 147 00:09:36,960 --> 00:09:41,040 Speaker 1: recently increased financial incentives for women to have children. Such 148 00:09:41,120 --> 00:09:43,839 Speaker 1: measures can sometimes encourage a woman to have a child 149 00:09:43,920 --> 00:09:47,360 Speaker 1: sooner than she was planning, but the measures aren't usually 150 00:09:47,400 --> 00:09:51,720 Speaker 1: successful at boosting the fertility rate over time. France in 151 00:09:51,720 --> 00:09:54,560 Speaker 1: the Nordic countries, on the other hand, have typically had 152 00:09:54,600 --> 00:09:58,080 Speaker 1: a slightly higher fertility rate than peers. That's in part 153 00:09:58,120 --> 00:10:01,079 Speaker 1: because they have more favorable labor mark conditions for women 154 00:10:01,120 --> 00:10:04,480 Speaker 1: who want to have children. That includes subsidized child care 155 00:10:04,520 --> 00:10:07,520 Speaker 1: for instance, parental leave, and a work culture that allows 156 00:10:07,559 --> 00:10:11,880 Speaker 1: more family time. But a recent and striking decline in 157 00:10:11,920 --> 00:10:15,080 Speaker 1: the fertility rate in the Nordic countries in particular seem 158 00:10:15,160 --> 00:10:17,839 Speaker 1: to dethrone their status as the gold standard for work 159 00:10:17,840 --> 00:10:23,520 Speaker 1: life balance. Researchers are still investigating why, but Magaila Kraenfeld, 160 00:10:23,679 --> 00:10:26,360 Speaker 1: a professor of sociology at the Hrdye School in Berlin, 161 00:10:26,720 --> 00:10:29,640 Speaker 1: points out that there could be an entirely benign explanation. 162 00:10:30,520 --> 00:10:32,960 Speaker 1: Women in these countries may simply be choosing to have 163 00:10:33,000 --> 00:10:35,800 Speaker 1: their children later. That could change what we might call 164 00:10:35,880 --> 00:10:38,640 Speaker 1: the headline fertility rate for a few years. But in 165 00:10:38,679 --> 00:10:41,880 Speaker 1: her view, the Nordics are still the outstanding examples of 166 00:10:41,920 --> 00:10:44,600 Speaker 1: countries that are committed to letting women combine a career 167 00:10:45,000 --> 00:10:48,520 Speaker 1: with as many children as they want. When you encourage 168 00:10:48,679 --> 00:10:51,280 Speaker 1: compatibility of work and family life and also the parent 169 00:10:51,400 --> 00:10:54,839 Speaker 1: leave benefit, that actually encouraged people actually to combine a 170 00:10:54,920 --> 00:10:57,439 Speaker 1: working family life, and that it's good for gender equality 171 00:10:57,440 --> 00:11:01,640 Speaker 1: and also for the sustainable of the household because then 172 00:11:01,720 --> 00:11:04,560 Speaker 1: both couples can work, and that is actually for the 173 00:11:04,600 --> 00:11:08,640 Speaker 1: economic foundation of the family actually more important on the 174 00:11:08,720 --> 00:11:13,680 Speaker 1: long run. A studious as an example, writ large of 175 00:11:13,720 --> 00:11:16,520 Speaker 1: the economic perils of having too many hurdles for women 176 00:11:16,559 --> 00:11:19,440 Speaker 1: who want to work and also be a mom. There 177 00:11:19,440 --> 00:11:22,480 Speaker 1: could be a big economic payoff awaiting any region or 178 00:11:22,520 --> 00:11:27,319 Speaker 1: country that's able to make it easier for Bloomberg News 179 00:11:27,360 --> 00:11:36,440 Speaker 1: I'm Jeanette Newman. So I'm joined now by Darryl Bricker, 180 00:11:36,520 --> 00:11:40,240 Speaker 1: the Canadian author and pollster who was the co author 181 00:11:40,320 --> 00:11:44,480 Speaker 1: with John Ibbotson of the book Empty Planet earlier this year. Darryl, 182 00:11:44,520 --> 00:11:48,200 Speaker 1: thanks very much for chatting to Stephanomics. Well, I'm looking 183 00:11:48,200 --> 00:11:50,600 Speaker 1: forward to having a chat with you about this Today's Stephanie, 184 00:11:51,040 --> 00:11:53,960 Speaker 1: So to tell us about the book, because it's it's 185 00:11:54,080 --> 00:11:57,880 Speaker 1: was squarely on the themes that we talked about in 186 00:11:58,120 --> 00:12:03,000 Speaker 1: Jeannette's piece. You know that the implications of this potential 187 00:12:03,080 --> 00:12:05,559 Speaker 1: for the global population to fall, and I guess you 188 00:12:05,559 --> 00:12:07,760 Speaker 1: you think that what we're seeing in places like Spain 189 00:12:08,520 --> 00:12:11,520 Speaker 1: is just the beginning, and that the population globally is 190 00:12:11,520 --> 00:12:14,080 Speaker 1: going to fall even more than the kind of official 191 00:12:14,480 --> 00:12:18,120 Speaker 1: u N forecast suggest well, and so does so does 192 00:12:18,160 --> 00:12:20,440 Speaker 1: the u N even since we wrote the book, because 193 00:12:20,440 --> 00:12:24,079 Speaker 1: they've adjusted down their estimates by three million, did it 194 00:12:24,200 --> 00:12:27,160 Speaker 1: just a couple of months ago, And that that's about 195 00:12:27,160 --> 00:12:29,199 Speaker 1: the size of the population of the United States. So 196 00:12:29,320 --> 00:12:32,720 Speaker 1: it gives you some sense of how big the potential 197 00:12:32,760 --> 00:12:36,079 Speaker 1: for a decline is. So the Empty Planet is really 198 00:12:36,160 --> 00:12:39,160 Speaker 1: all about what I call vertical knowledge. It's that thing 199 00:12:39,200 --> 00:12:42,760 Speaker 1: that everybody knows that everybody repeats that nobody understands or 200 00:12:42,800 --> 00:12:45,800 Speaker 1: is actually checked. So what John Evertson and I did 201 00:12:46,040 --> 00:12:48,480 Speaker 1: was check and lo and behold, went to go in 202 00:12:48,520 --> 00:12:52,960 Speaker 1: and and look at the way that the population estimates 203 00:12:52,960 --> 00:12:55,800 Speaker 1: have been put together. They really are biased to suggest 204 00:12:55,840 --> 00:12:59,440 Speaker 1: a much larger population than we're likely to have in 205 00:12:59,440 --> 00:13:02,920 Speaker 1: the world. So um, the premise of the book is 206 00:13:02,960 --> 00:13:04,320 Speaker 1: that the u N says we're going to be at 207 00:13:04,320 --> 00:13:07,200 Speaker 1: about eleven billion people by the turn of the century. 208 00:13:07,240 --> 00:13:09,600 Speaker 1: The premise of the book is we will never get there, 209 00:13:09,640 --> 00:13:12,400 Speaker 1: will probably peek out somewhere between eight and nine billion 210 00:13:12,679 --> 00:13:14,719 Speaker 1: and then start to decline. And the only question is 211 00:13:14,760 --> 00:13:18,480 Speaker 1: how rapidly it struck me. I think your story. One 212 00:13:18,480 --> 00:13:20,360 Speaker 1: of the big pieces of that is what you think 213 00:13:20,400 --> 00:13:22,160 Speaker 1: is going to happen in Africa? Is that right? Because 214 00:13:22,160 --> 00:13:25,920 Speaker 1: that's obviously one of the areas where we had expected 215 00:13:26,480 --> 00:13:29,440 Speaker 1: population growth to continue to be quite rapid relative to 216 00:13:29,480 --> 00:13:32,240 Speaker 1: other parts of the world. So we traveled to Africa, 217 00:13:32,360 --> 00:13:35,200 Speaker 1: We went to uh we went to Kenya, and we 218 00:13:35,320 --> 00:13:38,080 Speaker 1: looked around. We asked people who were demographers, We interviewed 219 00:13:38,120 --> 00:13:41,520 Speaker 1: people who were living with these types of family issues 220 00:13:42,000 --> 00:13:45,600 Speaker 1: in those in that country. In Arabian. You know, what 221 00:13:45,640 --> 00:13:48,400 Speaker 1: we found was that some of the many of the 222 00:13:48,400 --> 00:13:50,760 Speaker 1: things that we're having an effect in other places are 223 00:13:50,760 --> 00:13:53,280 Speaker 1: having an effect in Kenya too, And the reason for 224 00:13:53,440 --> 00:13:56,880 Speaker 1: that is because it's about urbanization, and Kenya is going 225 00:13:56,920 --> 00:14:00,120 Speaker 1: through rapid urbanization, as is most of Africa, along with 226 00:14:00,240 --> 00:14:02,880 Speaker 1: the effect of that on women's lives. And when women 227 00:14:02,920 --> 00:14:06,360 Speaker 1: move into cities, their lives change. They get access to education, 228 00:14:07,120 --> 00:14:09,880 Speaker 1: they get access to jobs and careers, They live a 229 00:14:09,920 --> 00:14:12,520 Speaker 1: different life than their mother or their grandmother lived, and 230 00:14:12,600 --> 00:14:15,680 Speaker 1: part of that different life is having a smaller family. 231 00:14:15,960 --> 00:14:18,040 Speaker 1: So it's already started in Kenya, where it's gone from 232 00:14:18,040 --> 00:14:20,920 Speaker 1: the nineteen six birth rate of about eight down to 233 00:14:21,040 --> 00:14:23,800 Speaker 1: about five about ten years ago, it's now down below four. 234 00:14:24,400 --> 00:14:28,280 Speaker 1: It's happening very, very rapidly. And if we step back 235 00:14:28,720 --> 00:14:31,920 Speaker 1: and think what does this mean for the global economy, 236 00:14:31,960 --> 00:14:34,880 Speaker 1: what kind of implications are we going to be grippling 237 00:14:34,920 --> 00:14:39,080 Speaker 1: with over the next ten twenty you go look ahead 238 00:14:39,080 --> 00:14:42,280 Speaker 1: even further than that to the second half of the 239 00:14:42,280 --> 00:14:44,960 Speaker 1: twenty one century. But you know, we tend to think 240 00:14:45,240 --> 00:14:48,880 Speaker 1: in Europe, Jeanette was talking about the efforts of governments 241 00:14:48,920 --> 00:14:52,080 Speaker 1: to sort of effectively bribe people to have more more kids. 242 00:14:52,400 --> 00:14:54,080 Speaker 1: You know, we tend to think it's a bad thing 243 00:14:54,360 --> 00:14:58,720 Speaker 1: to have this potential decline in the population. Is that 244 00:14:58,800 --> 00:15:02,000 Speaker 1: Is that the right way to think about No, it's not. 245 00:15:02,080 --> 00:15:03,480 Speaker 1: As we say in the book, it's not a good thing. 246 00:15:03,560 --> 00:15:05,360 Speaker 1: It's not a bad thing. It's just a big thing, 247 00:15:05,440 --> 00:15:08,160 Speaker 1: and we have to understand it. And the thing about 248 00:15:08,200 --> 00:15:12,600 Speaker 1: all of those attempts to bribe people, as you said, 249 00:15:12,960 --> 00:15:15,800 Speaker 1: to have larger families, well, for the most part, they 250 00:15:15,840 --> 00:15:19,000 Speaker 1: haven't paid off. For example, France, which you mentioned, the 251 00:15:19,360 --> 00:15:22,320 Speaker 1: birthrate is below replacement, and all the Nordic countries the 252 00:15:22,320 --> 00:15:25,320 Speaker 1: birthrate is below replacement. They can have some impact on 253 00:15:25,880 --> 00:15:28,320 Speaker 1: the speed at which this happens, but the direction of 254 00:15:28,360 --> 00:15:31,200 Speaker 1: it pretty much not. And the reason for that is 255 00:15:31,240 --> 00:15:34,000 Speaker 1: what they're up against is not a financial decision that 256 00:15:34,080 --> 00:15:38,040 Speaker 1: people are making. It's not an economically rationally driven decision. 257 00:15:38,440 --> 00:15:41,720 Speaker 1: It's really a decision about the culture of the country. 258 00:15:41,840 --> 00:15:44,560 Speaker 1: You know what, what what do they support? Larger families 259 00:15:44,640 --> 00:15:47,080 Speaker 1: or smaller families and the lives that the parents want 260 00:15:47,120 --> 00:15:49,040 Speaker 1: to live, and part of that life that they want 261 00:15:49,040 --> 00:15:50,960 Speaker 1: to live today, the model for the life they want 262 00:15:51,000 --> 00:15:53,960 Speaker 1: to live today is a smaller family. Should we worry 263 00:15:54,000 --> 00:15:56,400 Speaker 1: about the growth implications. I mean a lot of people 264 00:15:56,520 --> 00:15:59,960 Speaker 1: would say, you look at the spending habits of old 265 00:16:00,120 --> 00:16:03,240 Speaker 1: people and you tend to think, um that you know, 266 00:16:03,320 --> 00:16:06,560 Speaker 1: consumption will be lower, growth will be lower. Um. There's 267 00:16:06,600 --> 00:16:12,200 Speaker 1: also people it's an older population is associated with less innovation. 268 00:16:12,480 --> 00:16:14,240 Speaker 1: But I don't know, do you think maybe that would 269 00:16:14,320 --> 00:16:16,040 Speaker 1: change as what do you think do you think we're 270 00:16:16,080 --> 00:16:19,680 Speaker 1: necessarily going to see less economic growth even per head 271 00:16:20,080 --> 00:16:22,600 Speaker 1: than we have in the in the future, in the 272 00:16:22,640 --> 00:16:25,360 Speaker 1: future that we have in the past. Well you hit 273 00:16:25,400 --> 00:16:27,240 Speaker 1: on a really key point stuff. And it's not just 274 00:16:27,280 --> 00:16:29,240 Speaker 1: that the size of the population is going to change, 275 00:16:29,240 --> 00:16:31,280 Speaker 1: but the structure of the population is going to change. 276 00:16:31,720 --> 00:16:33,880 Speaker 1: So we have this uh and there's a huge youth 277 00:16:33,920 --> 00:16:36,560 Speaker 1: bias when it comes to thinking about the economy. You know, 278 00:16:36,600 --> 00:16:39,080 Speaker 1: we'll have a population maybe smaller that we'll be going 279 00:16:39,120 --> 00:16:42,480 Speaker 1: through uh. Time and space as as as structured as 280 00:16:42,520 --> 00:16:45,240 Speaker 1: it is today, it won't be the biggest growth in 281 00:16:45,280 --> 00:16:48,160 Speaker 1: the population today is not as a result of people 282 00:16:48,200 --> 00:16:50,720 Speaker 1: coming into the population, as a as a result of 283 00:16:50,720 --> 00:16:54,480 Speaker 1: people not leaving. We're we're getting so much better at 284 00:16:54,560 --> 00:16:57,080 Speaker 1: keeping people alive and it's had a huge impact on 285 00:16:57,120 --> 00:16:59,880 Speaker 1: the structure of our population. We're really bad at make 286 00:17:00,120 --> 00:17:02,680 Speaker 1: new people are getting worse out of In fact, we're 287 00:17:02,680 --> 00:17:06,280 Speaker 1: really really good at keeping people alive. And as a 288 00:17:06,320 --> 00:17:10,560 Speaker 1: result of this huge growth of elderly people, the idea 289 00:17:10,640 --> 00:17:13,000 Speaker 1: that you know, early life consumption is going to drive 290 00:17:13,119 --> 00:17:16,600 Speaker 1: our economy is going to have to change. But the 291 00:17:16,720 --> 00:17:19,200 Speaker 1: large proportion of the consumption you do when you're older, 292 00:17:19,240 --> 00:17:21,520 Speaker 1: at least in the current model that certainly the very 293 00:17:21,520 --> 00:17:26,960 Speaker 1: old people is healthcare is only particular sectors. I guess 294 00:17:26,960 --> 00:17:29,040 Speaker 1: that's what people are sort of nervous about how that 295 00:17:29,119 --> 00:17:32,520 Speaker 1: might skew our economy going forward. Oh yeah, there's there's 296 00:17:32,520 --> 00:17:35,120 Speaker 1: no doubt it's going to have a huge impact. There's 297 00:17:35,240 --> 00:17:38,159 Speaker 1: very little study that's been done on this. Most of 298 00:17:38,200 --> 00:17:41,880 Speaker 1: the conversations we have about about the economy are still 299 00:17:42,160 --> 00:17:45,800 Speaker 1: stuck in that old the the old population model. By 300 00:17:45,800 --> 00:17:47,879 Speaker 1: that I don't mean older population, but the way we 301 00:17:47,960 --> 00:17:52,199 Speaker 1: used to think about UH population leading up to this period, 302 00:17:52,720 --> 00:17:56,520 Speaker 1: which was very heavily youth driven UH And very few 303 00:17:56,720 --> 00:17:59,560 Speaker 1: people are talking about exactly what we're talking about today, 304 00:17:59,720 --> 00:18:02,760 Speaker 1: and who especially not talking about it are marketers and 305 00:18:02,840 --> 00:18:05,320 Speaker 1: producers of products and services who still think that their 306 00:18:05,359 --> 00:18:07,800 Speaker 1: market is going to be driven by young people, and 307 00:18:08,320 --> 00:18:11,080 Speaker 1: that's going to be a decreasing case. It's been one 308 00:18:11,119 --> 00:18:15,240 Speaker 1: of these great tropes that one here is particularly kind 309 00:18:15,240 --> 00:18:18,960 Speaker 1: of fund managers who are investing in Japan. They're sort 310 00:18:19,000 --> 00:18:21,239 Speaker 1: of top fact that they like to repeat is that 311 00:18:21,320 --> 00:18:25,320 Speaker 1: the market in Japan for for adult diapers is now 312 00:18:25,359 --> 00:18:28,359 Speaker 1: bigger than the the one for for baby diapers. I mean, 313 00:18:28,359 --> 00:18:31,119 Speaker 1: I guess, if if you think about I guess the 314 00:18:31,200 --> 00:18:36,080 Speaker 1: upside of a declining population could be that some of 315 00:18:36,080 --> 00:18:38,320 Speaker 1: the other things we've worried about recently, I mean, particularly 316 00:18:38,320 --> 00:18:42,080 Speaker 1: the burden on the world, on the environment of a 317 00:18:42,200 --> 00:18:45,200 Speaker 1: rising population, you might think that this would be good 318 00:18:45,200 --> 00:18:48,000 Speaker 1: news for the environment. And the other thing that we 319 00:18:48,080 --> 00:18:50,639 Speaker 1: talked about a lot is the loss of power for 320 00:18:50,840 --> 00:18:53,639 Speaker 1: labor relative to capital, the way that wages have been 321 00:18:53,680 --> 00:18:56,879 Speaker 1: squeezed in many countries over the last few decades. You know, 322 00:18:56,960 --> 00:18:59,600 Speaker 1: if we end up with a sort of chronic labor 323 00:18:59,640 --> 00:19:03,240 Speaker 1: short age globally, is that also something that might turn 324 00:19:03,280 --> 00:19:08,040 Speaker 1: around in the next twenty or thirty years. Well, we've got, 325 00:19:08,240 --> 00:19:10,520 Speaker 1: you know, three little things there that are really important, 326 00:19:10,600 --> 00:19:13,120 Speaker 1: not three, three major things. One in terms of the environment, 327 00:19:13,440 --> 00:19:16,800 Speaker 1: just about every aspect of of what's happening in the 328 00:19:16,880 --> 00:19:20,160 Speaker 1: environment can't help but be improved. But with a smaller population, 329 00:19:20,200 --> 00:19:23,200 Speaker 1: there's there's no doubt about that. So there's good news 330 00:19:23,200 --> 00:19:26,080 Speaker 1: on the environmental front going forward, everything from the sustainability 331 00:19:26,080 --> 00:19:28,919 Speaker 1: of fish stocks through to potentially global warming, whatever you 332 00:19:28,920 --> 00:19:31,040 Speaker 1: want to take a look at. Having fewer people on 333 00:19:31,080 --> 00:19:32,560 Speaker 1: the face of the earth is good for that if 334 00:19:32,600 --> 00:19:34,120 Speaker 1: you've lost all the fish by the time you get 335 00:19:34,119 --> 00:19:37,320 Speaker 1: to that point, and I guess it's academic, but anyway, well, 336 00:19:37,359 --> 00:19:39,320 Speaker 1: it is a bit of a race. There's no there's 337 00:19:39,359 --> 00:19:42,520 Speaker 1: no doubt about that. But the fact is that if 338 00:19:42,560 --> 00:19:44,960 Speaker 1: there's fewer, if you change the denominator in many of 339 00:19:44,960 --> 00:19:48,720 Speaker 1: these equations, the new moderator starts to change too. And 340 00:19:49,280 --> 00:19:51,560 Speaker 1: the second point about that, which is the place of 341 00:19:51,680 --> 00:19:55,399 Speaker 1: labor in in the marketplace. The idea of unemployment is 342 00:19:55,440 --> 00:19:58,600 Speaker 1: going to change, The idea of employment is going to change, 343 00:19:58,760 --> 00:20:01,280 Speaker 1: in the idea of retire elements is going to change. 344 00:20:01,760 --> 00:20:03,679 Speaker 1: A lot of these concepts are going to have to 345 00:20:03,720 --> 00:20:07,520 Speaker 1: be rethought as the population structure goes through the transition 346 00:20:07,520 --> 00:20:10,199 Speaker 1: that it's going to go through. The biggest equation in 347 00:20:10,240 --> 00:20:12,560 Speaker 1: all of this economically is what is the future of 348 00:20:12,600 --> 00:20:15,280 Speaker 1: economic growth going to be. I think we're probably going 349 00:20:15,320 --> 00:20:17,640 Speaker 1: to have to rethink that based on the changing structure 350 00:20:17,640 --> 00:20:20,600 Speaker 1: of the population. Finally, I am not the first to 351 00:20:20,680 --> 00:20:25,040 Speaker 1: mention to notice that in your book you basically predict that, 352 00:20:25,200 --> 00:20:27,239 Speaker 1: you know, some of the world's great nations will not 353 00:20:28,000 --> 00:20:30,840 Speaker 1: fare very well in this new new world, but Canada 354 00:20:31,400 --> 00:20:33,760 Speaker 1: will get a new lease on life and might even 355 00:20:33,920 --> 00:20:37,760 Speaker 1: turn into a global superpower. Um. But you've been teased 356 00:20:37,800 --> 00:20:40,480 Speaker 1: for that a bit, given that your two Canadian authors. 357 00:20:40,480 --> 00:20:44,160 Speaker 1: But what's what's the case for for Canada owning the future? Well, 358 00:20:44,200 --> 00:20:47,119 Speaker 1: I know we've got some criticism about two Canadians writing 359 00:20:47,480 --> 00:20:49,600 Speaker 1: a book that has something positive to say about Canada, 360 00:20:49,640 --> 00:20:51,640 Speaker 1: mainly because I think we have just had more experience 361 00:20:51,640 --> 00:20:54,000 Speaker 1: and exposure to it than than anything else. I mean, 362 00:20:54,040 --> 00:20:56,119 Speaker 1: we certainly have our troubles here in Canada as well. 363 00:20:56,480 --> 00:20:59,399 Speaker 1: But the one thing that Canada has seems to have 364 00:20:59,480 --> 00:21:02,359 Speaker 1: gotten right, at least in the short term, as uh, 365 00:21:02,600 --> 00:21:05,520 Speaker 1: the approach towards immigration. Now it might be unique to Canada. 366 00:21:06,119 --> 00:21:08,760 Speaker 1: And the reason that it's unique to Canada is because 367 00:21:08,760 --> 00:21:12,560 Speaker 1: of this that the um the construction of our culture. 368 00:21:13,320 --> 00:21:16,119 Speaker 1: So the idea that you've got something to protect with 369 00:21:16,240 --> 00:21:18,800 Speaker 1: the exception of the province of Quebec is not as 370 00:21:18,800 --> 00:21:21,360 Speaker 1: strong here as it is in the in many other countries. 371 00:21:21,720 --> 00:21:25,119 Speaker 1: So immigration is a short to medium term solution. But 372 00:21:25,160 --> 00:21:27,439 Speaker 1: it is only a short to medium term solution, and 373 00:21:27,480 --> 00:21:30,840 Speaker 1: the reason is because the places that normally spin off 374 00:21:30,880 --> 00:21:34,600 Speaker 1: immigrants are also going through the same population change that 375 00:21:34,840 --> 00:21:38,720 Speaker 1: that the developed countries are going through. And quite frankly, 376 00:21:39,080 --> 00:21:41,760 Speaker 1: immigration is a young person's game, and they're not going 377 00:21:41,760 --> 00:21:45,720 Speaker 1: to be as many young people immigrating. Well, you're looking 378 00:21:45,760 --> 00:21:48,440 Speaker 1: around the world. I'm not sure that one would conclude 379 00:21:48,440 --> 00:21:50,280 Speaker 1: that the world was becoming more like Canada, but I 380 00:21:50,280 --> 00:21:51,960 Speaker 1: think I would definitely say it wouldn't be such a 381 00:21:52,000 --> 00:22:00,160 Speaker 1: bad thing if it were. Thank you very much, Thank you, Stephanie. 382 00:22:05,080 --> 00:22:09,240 Speaker 1: So I'm joined out by Bloomberg columnist and author Justin Fox. 383 00:22:09,480 --> 00:22:12,680 Speaker 1: Justin thank you for coming on Stephanomics. Great to be here, 384 00:22:13,240 --> 00:22:14,879 Speaker 1: and there are a lot of things I like about 385 00:22:15,000 --> 00:22:17,320 Speaker 1: your columns, But I think the thing that you do 386 00:22:17,400 --> 00:22:21,040 Speaker 1: more than other people is you spot new facts, interesting 387 00:22:21,119 --> 00:22:24,960 Speaker 1: things in new data, and then you write about what 388 00:22:25,040 --> 00:22:28,720 Speaker 1: that data might mean for our economy but also for 389 00:22:28,760 --> 00:22:31,040 Speaker 1: the for the way our lives are organized, and often 390 00:22:31,080 --> 00:22:34,280 Speaker 1: I guess the way our towns and cities are organized. 391 00:22:34,440 --> 00:22:37,080 Speaker 1: And I wanted to ask you about a top fact 392 00:22:37,320 --> 00:22:40,680 Speaker 1: that you found buried in some recent US Census data 393 00:22:40,840 --> 00:22:43,760 Speaker 1: on the earnings of different types of households in the US. 394 00:22:43,960 --> 00:22:46,480 Speaker 1: It was very striking. Tell us more um. In the 395 00:22:46,520 --> 00:22:50,120 Speaker 1: American Community Survey, this annual survey that the Census Bureau did, 396 00:22:50,560 --> 00:22:54,080 Speaker 1: they ask people, um, how they got to work last week. 397 00:22:54,520 --> 00:22:57,639 Speaker 1: And I actually got surveyed in the American Community Survey 398 00:22:57,640 --> 00:22:59,840 Speaker 1: a few years ago, and I had actually ridden my 399 00:23:00,040 --> 00:23:02,440 Speaker 1: bike to work three days the previous week, so I 400 00:23:02,480 --> 00:23:04,840 Speaker 1: could put down could be part of that bold group 401 00:23:04,880 --> 00:23:07,960 Speaker 1: of bike commuters. But anyway, the week that year that 402 00:23:08,840 --> 00:23:11,880 Speaker 1: one of the only I was living up in Cambridge, Massachusetts, 403 00:23:11,920 --> 00:23:13,760 Speaker 1: where most of the time it was either too cold 404 00:23:13,880 --> 00:23:16,280 Speaker 1: or too human to ride my bike to work, but 405 00:23:16,320 --> 00:23:19,160 Speaker 1: it was beautiful weeks. I feel like undermined the day 406 00:23:19,800 --> 00:23:23,320 Speaker 1: exactly well. But you figure, you know that that one 407 00:23:23,400 --> 00:23:25,119 Speaker 1: person happened to do it that week, there will be 408 00:23:25,160 --> 00:23:27,240 Speaker 1: other people who would do it other weeks. I think 409 00:23:27,280 --> 00:23:29,680 Speaker 1: it all works out. So they ask this, and they 410 00:23:29,720 --> 00:23:33,080 Speaker 1: also then they you know, cross tabulated with stuff like 411 00:23:33,160 --> 00:23:36,880 Speaker 1: your media and earnings data. And one I've been watching 412 00:23:36,880 --> 00:23:38,440 Speaker 1: this for a few years and one of the things 413 00:23:38,520 --> 00:23:41,720 Speaker 1: that kind of funny that came out is that people 414 00:23:41,720 --> 00:23:46,359 Speaker 1: who take public transportation um now have higher meeting, media 415 00:23:46,359 --> 00:23:49,240 Speaker 1: and earnings in the US than people who drive to work. 416 00:23:49,880 --> 00:23:51,600 Speaker 1: And the reason for that is pretty simple. It's that 417 00:23:51,800 --> 00:23:55,320 Speaker 1: public trans most public transportation units users in the US 418 00:23:55,359 --> 00:24:00,520 Speaker 1: aren't about five big rich metropolitan areas, and so they're richer. 419 00:24:01,040 --> 00:24:03,880 Speaker 1: The other thing that stood out is that people who 420 00:24:03,920 --> 00:24:07,679 Speaker 1: worked at home had the highest media and earnings of 421 00:24:07,720 --> 00:24:10,840 Speaker 1: any of the main categories that the census tracks. And 422 00:24:10,880 --> 00:24:13,560 Speaker 1: I looked back over the years and it turned out that, 423 00:24:14,040 --> 00:24:15,879 Speaker 1: you know, in two thousand ten, that was not the 424 00:24:15,920 --> 00:24:18,000 Speaker 1: case at all, and I think it was about two 425 00:24:18,080 --> 00:24:22,080 Speaker 1: years ago. Um, they passed those who drive. And that 426 00:24:22,240 --> 00:24:25,520 Speaker 1: just seemed one more I've been writing about this growing 427 00:24:25,720 --> 00:24:27,800 Speaker 1: number of people who work at least part of the 428 00:24:27,840 --> 00:24:31,440 Speaker 1: time from home, and this just seemed like one more interesting, um, 429 00:24:31,840 --> 00:24:34,520 Speaker 1: a bit of evidence that this was happening and it 430 00:24:34,640 --> 00:24:37,639 Speaker 1: was something that people were doing because it was a 431 00:24:37,680 --> 00:24:40,760 Speaker 1: good deal for them. Now, I mean, economists always say 432 00:24:41,320 --> 00:24:44,879 Speaker 1: connection is not causality. Also, you know the fact that 433 00:24:44,920 --> 00:24:48,320 Speaker 1: these things go together, is not necessarily the reason for them. 434 00:24:48,400 --> 00:24:50,439 Speaker 1: So if you've got if you're making more is obviously 435 00:24:50,480 --> 00:24:53,080 Speaker 1: not just from working from home. It's fact. The fact 436 00:24:53,119 --> 00:24:55,199 Speaker 1: that you're working from fro from home probably tells us 437 00:24:55,200 --> 00:24:58,040 Speaker 1: something about the job you're you're doing, right, and it's 438 00:24:58,119 --> 00:25:03,080 Speaker 1: it's white collar work, UM and professional work that people 439 00:25:03,080 --> 00:25:06,200 Speaker 1: are increasingly doing this. There's there's another UM Bureau of 440 00:25:06,280 --> 00:25:09,800 Speaker 1: Labor Statistics survey that I actually didn't realize was out 441 00:25:09,840 --> 00:25:12,320 Speaker 1: there until after I'd done this column. But it just 442 00:25:12,480 --> 00:25:15,359 Speaker 1: asked people, you know, it's the American Time You survey. 443 00:25:15,400 --> 00:25:18,639 Speaker 1: They ask people how they spend their day, and basically 444 00:25:18,680 --> 00:25:21,480 Speaker 1: the percentage of people who worked at home at least 445 00:25:21,480 --> 00:25:24,520 Speaker 1: a little bit on an average day is close to 446 00:25:24,680 --> 00:25:28,480 Speaker 1: a quarter, and for those with advanced degrees it's more. 447 00:25:30,160 --> 00:25:32,920 Speaker 1: And that's partly just because people with advanced degrees all 448 00:25:33,280 --> 00:25:36,000 Speaker 1: work way too many hours in the US, and so 449 00:25:36,080 --> 00:25:37,800 Speaker 1: a lot of those people are both working in an 450 00:25:37,800 --> 00:25:40,280 Speaker 1: office all day and working at home. But there's still 451 00:25:40,520 --> 00:25:42,879 Speaker 1: the percentage of those people who are working in an 452 00:25:42,920 --> 00:25:45,840 Speaker 1: office at all is much lower than for people in 453 00:25:46,200 --> 00:25:48,720 Speaker 1: of of lower education levels. I guess I mean the 454 00:25:48,800 --> 00:25:51,000 Speaker 1: darker interpretation of this is that, you know, it's just 455 00:25:51,119 --> 00:25:54,399 Speaker 1: one more way in which lower skilled workers in the 456 00:25:54,480 --> 00:25:57,160 Speaker 1: US and other places are being locked out of the 457 00:25:57,160 --> 00:26:01,520 Speaker 1: the advantages of being in a twenty one century economy. 458 00:26:01,560 --> 00:26:03,159 Speaker 1: You know, you can't work at home if you're an 459 00:26:03,200 --> 00:26:06,119 Speaker 1: Amazon warehouse worker, right, you work in a supermarket. I 460 00:26:06,160 --> 00:26:08,119 Speaker 1: think you also point out that it's a do you 461 00:26:08,119 --> 00:26:09,600 Speaker 1: say in your column it seems to be a white 462 00:26:09,640 --> 00:26:12,280 Speaker 1: people thing. I mean there's a lot smaller proportion of 463 00:26:12,720 --> 00:26:16,760 Speaker 1: African American and Hispanic people from Yeah. I mean, it's 464 00:26:16,760 --> 00:26:20,040 Speaker 1: a privilege extended to people who already have some privileges. 465 00:26:20,600 --> 00:26:23,440 Speaker 1: And there are lots of ways that it's great. It 466 00:26:23,440 --> 00:26:26,720 Speaker 1: It sort of allows people to live in different places. 467 00:26:26,760 --> 00:26:29,440 Speaker 1: It might take a little bit of the pressure off 468 00:26:30,320 --> 00:26:34,320 Speaker 1: real estate markets and places like San Francisco and New York. 469 00:26:34,640 --> 00:26:38,440 Speaker 1: And it's it's interesting that I looked at the metropolitan 470 00:26:38,480 --> 00:26:41,720 Speaker 1: areas in the US that have the highest percentages of 471 00:26:41,760 --> 00:26:44,360 Speaker 1: at home workers, and number one is Boulder, Colorado, which 472 00:26:44,400 --> 00:26:47,480 Speaker 1: is a totally lovely place. Also right outside of a 473 00:26:47,520 --> 00:26:50,879 Speaker 1: really big metropolitan area, Denver Kingston, New York, which is 474 00:26:50,920 --> 00:26:53,119 Speaker 1: the cat Skills here outside of New York City is 475 00:26:53,119 --> 00:26:55,880 Speaker 1: another one of the top ones. Portland, Oregon is another 476 00:26:55,880 --> 00:26:58,000 Speaker 1: big one, and there are tons of people who have 477 00:26:58,400 --> 00:27:03,159 Speaker 1: still have work connections to Silicon Valley but live in 478 00:27:03,280 --> 00:27:06,919 Speaker 1: Portland or Bend or again or elsewhere and maybe go 479 00:27:07,040 --> 00:27:10,080 Speaker 1: down once every two weeks or something like that. You 480 00:27:10,160 --> 00:27:13,400 Speaker 1: often do right about about cities. It's one another reason 481 00:27:13,440 --> 00:27:17,199 Speaker 1: I write your columns. And I guess there's always been 482 00:27:17,200 --> 00:27:21,520 Speaker 1: a debate about whether or not telecommuting and sort of 483 00:27:21,520 --> 00:27:24,639 Speaker 1: the internet digitalization generally was going to be good for 484 00:27:24,680 --> 00:27:27,760 Speaker 1: cities or whether it was actually going to mean more 485 00:27:27,800 --> 00:27:32,199 Speaker 1: even distribution of wealth and jobs around the economy. I mean, 486 00:27:32,280 --> 00:27:35,199 Speaker 1: so far, we have seen still what you'd call the 487 00:27:35,200 --> 00:27:38,320 Speaker 1: agglomeration effects. You've still seen cities get more and more 488 00:27:38,440 --> 00:27:41,840 Speaker 1: pop successful, cities get more and more successful, despite the 489 00:27:41,880 --> 00:27:43,919 Speaker 1: fact that you you know, you think people will be 490 00:27:43,920 --> 00:27:46,280 Speaker 1: able to work from anywhere. Do you think there's any sign, 491 00:27:46,280 --> 00:27:47,520 Speaker 1: I mean you see in these numbers. Do you think 492 00:27:47,520 --> 00:27:51,680 Speaker 1: there's any sign of that shifting. I feel like there's some, 493 00:27:51,760 --> 00:27:56,080 Speaker 1: and they're definitely signs in US population data of places 494 00:27:56,119 --> 00:27:58,600 Speaker 1: like the Bay Area in the New York Area, starting 495 00:27:58,680 --> 00:28:01,479 Speaker 1: in New York City proper starting to lose people. Although 496 00:28:01,840 --> 00:28:05,240 Speaker 1: when you dig a little deeper, it's mostly UM people 497 00:28:05,240 --> 00:28:08,000 Speaker 1: who earn less money, have lower education levels who are 498 00:28:08,040 --> 00:28:10,920 Speaker 1: the ones bailing out. So it's a little hard so 499 00:28:11,359 --> 00:28:15,679 Speaker 1: at this point, not yet, but it definitely is. One 500 00:28:15,720 --> 00:28:17,719 Speaker 1: thing that this just made me think of is, you know, 501 00:28:17,920 --> 00:28:20,600 Speaker 1: the rise of computers was supposed to mean the end 502 00:28:20,640 --> 00:28:23,560 Speaker 1: of lots of paper in offices, and I think for 503 00:28:23,600 --> 00:28:27,000 Speaker 1: the first UM decade or so it was the exact opposite. 504 00:28:27,000 --> 00:28:29,200 Speaker 1: People had these printers and they printed out twice as much. 505 00:28:29,960 --> 00:28:32,120 Speaker 1: I know, reached a point where I don't print out 506 00:28:32,160 --> 00:28:35,919 Speaker 1: a lot. And I would guess that shows up in 507 00:28:36,160 --> 00:28:39,840 Speaker 1: UM paper statistics. I mean, I think the paperless office has, 508 00:28:40,200 --> 00:28:42,960 Speaker 1: bit by bit finally come and I you know, they're 509 00:28:43,400 --> 00:28:47,880 Speaker 1: they're counter forces in this whole agglomeration thing that Yes, 510 00:28:47,920 --> 00:28:51,239 Speaker 1: it's really useful to be in a in a in 511 00:28:51,280 --> 00:28:54,120 Speaker 1: a dense place where you interact with lots of other people. 512 00:28:54,520 --> 00:28:57,120 Speaker 1: But I think it's also possible to find ways to 513 00:28:57,280 --> 00:29:01,760 Speaker 1: keep taking advantage of that occasionally while saving on living cars, 514 00:29:01,800 --> 00:29:05,440 Speaker 1: commuting cars, communing time, and everything else. Justin Fox, thank 515 00:29:05,480 --> 00:29:12,880 Speaker 1: you very much, Thank you, thanks for listening to Stephanomics. 516 00:29:12,920 --> 00:29:15,200 Speaker 1: We'll be back next week with more on the ground 517 00:29:15,200 --> 00:29:18,000 Speaker 1: insights into the global economy. In the meantime. You can 518 00:29:18,040 --> 00:29:21,560 Speaker 1: find us on the Bloomberg Terminal, website, app, or wherever 519 00:29:21,600 --> 00:29:23,880 Speaker 1: you get your podcasts. We'd love it if you took 520 00:29:23,920 --> 00:29:26,040 Speaker 1: the time to rate and review our show so it 521 00:29:26,080 --> 00:29:29,280 Speaker 1: can reach more listeners. And for more news and analysis 522 00:29:29,360 --> 00:29:33,280 Speaker 1: during the week from Bloomberg Economics, follow as Economics on Twitter. 523 00:29:33,680 --> 00:29:37,240 Speaker 1: You can also find me on at my Stephonomics. The 524 00:29:37,280 --> 00:29:40,240 Speaker 1: story in this episode was reported and written by Jeanette Newman. 525 00:29:40,560 --> 00:29:44,240 Speaker 1: It was produced by Magnus Hendrickson and edited by Bruce Douglas. 526 00:29:44,760 --> 00:29:48,880 Speaker 1: Special thanks to Darryl Bricker and Justin Fox. Our executive 527 00:29:48,920 --> 00:29:52,440 Speaker 1: producer is Scott Laman and Francesco Levy is the head 528 00:29:52,480 --> 00:30:04,640 Speaker 1: of Bloomberg podcast. The un