1 00:00:09,840 --> 00:00:13,800 Speaker 1: Welcome to the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Tom Keane. Daily 2 00:00:13,960 --> 00:00:17,560 Speaker 1: we bring you insight from the best in economics, finance, investment, 3 00:00:18,000 --> 00:00:23,520 Speaker 1: and international relations. Find Bloomberg Surveillance on Apple Podcasts, SoundCloud, 4 00:00:23,640 --> 00:00:27,360 Speaker 1: Bloomberg dot Com, and of course, on the Bloomberg. This 5 00:00:27,480 --> 00:00:30,080 Speaker 1: was going to be a timely interview and then it 6 00:00:30,160 --> 00:00:33,440 Speaker 1: got more timely, and that occurred last night. Laura Brown 7 00:00:33,520 --> 00:00:36,920 Speaker 1: is with us. Her study at the Graduate School of 8 00:00:37,000 --> 00:00:42,080 Speaker 1: Political Management at George Washington is on presidential Let's call 9 00:00:42,159 --> 00:00:46,360 Speaker 1: it discourse. The book describes it all amateur, our presidential 10 00:00:46,440 --> 00:00:50,000 Speaker 1: character and the question of leadership. Laura, I was watching 11 00:00:50,040 --> 00:00:53,239 Speaker 1: the show last night and I thought, of you, You've 12 00:00:53,320 --> 00:00:56,360 Speaker 1: gotta be kidding me. Were you taking notes during the 13 00:00:56,360 --> 00:01:00,680 Speaker 1: president's uh press conference? I guess i'd call it. I 14 00:01:00,680 --> 00:01:03,640 Speaker 1: will tell you I was having many heart attacks about 15 00:01:03,720 --> 00:01:08,880 Speaker 1: every two seconds. Um. His speech, which was just full 16 00:01:09,000 --> 00:01:14,399 Speaker 1: of bald faced lies, was so frustrating and disheartening for 17 00:01:14,440 --> 00:01:19,200 Speaker 1: anyone who believes in the sacredness of the vote and 18 00:01:19,319 --> 00:01:23,640 Speaker 1: the process of democracy. UM. It was stunning to me 19 00:01:23,959 --> 00:01:28,600 Speaker 1: to watch a president from the White House claiming that 20 00:01:28,640 --> 00:01:32,840 Speaker 1: there was widespread fraud. I look, Laura, at the history 21 00:01:32,880 --> 00:01:34,840 Speaker 1: of this and I'm going to go to late Andrew 22 00:01:34,920 --> 00:01:37,440 Speaker 1: Jackson where he really fell apart in the great Roger 23 00:01:37,480 --> 00:01:41,120 Speaker 1: REMANI of Illinois and his three volumes on Jackson. I 24 00:01:41,120 --> 00:01:43,600 Speaker 1: don't know if we're gonna get three volumes on Trump. 25 00:01:44,000 --> 00:01:48,200 Speaker 1: But is it a continuum, has there been a deterioration, 26 00:01:48,880 --> 00:01:51,560 Speaker 1: or is it just a moment for this unique president. 27 00:01:52,640 --> 00:01:54,960 Speaker 1: So one of the things that I argue in my 28 00:01:55,080 --> 00:02:00,240 Speaker 1: book is that the more we elect outsiders, individuals who 29 00:02:00,320 --> 00:02:05,560 Speaker 1: have no relationship to politics or really knowledge of our 30 00:02:05,680 --> 00:02:09,359 Speaker 1: legal system, um, then what you are going to see 31 00:02:09,400 --> 00:02:13,760 Speaker 1: as people who have no kind of internal commitments to 32 00:02:13,960 --> 00:02:18,799 Speaker 1: upholding the norms of democratic politics. And what that means 33 00:02:18,960 --> 00:02:22,320 Speaker 1: is that for them everything is fair game and there's 34 00:02:22,520 --> 00:02:25,640 Speaker 1: no such thing as a below the belt hit. And 35 00:02:25,680 --> 00:02:27,920 Speaker 1: I think that's what we're seeing, and we've seen it 36 00:02:27,960 --> 00:02:32,960 Speaker 1: progressively over the last thirty years, um, forty years. But 37 00:02:33,160 --> 00:02:37,760 Speaker 1: I don't think, um that anything kind of compares to 38 00:02:37,840 --> 00:02:40,919 Speaker 1: this moment and what we've seen with President Trump, Laura. 39 00:02:40,960 --> 00:02:43,560 Speaker 1: This country, though, does have a long history of non 40 00:02:43,600 --> 00:02:46,960 Speaker 1: politicians becoming president, whether it's Ronald Reagan or some of 41 00:02:46,960 --> 00:02:50,080 Speaker 1: the founding fathers who had other disciplines as well, and 42 00:02:50,120 --> 00:02:52,840 Speaker 1: that is the reason why Donald Trump has the support 43 00:02:52,960 --> 00:02:55,960 Speaker 1: that he has some of his arguments. Is there any 44 00:02:56,040 --> 00:02:58,440 Speaker 1: validity in some of his complaints as you see it, 45 00:02:59,120 --> 00:03:01,000 Speaker 1: that could be mixed in with other things that you 46 00:03:01,040 --> 00:03:03,720 Speaker 1: take issue with. So let me take issue first with 47 00:03:03,760 --> 00:03:07,720 Speaker 1: your question. That's actually not accurate. Every president who has 48 00:03:07,800 --> 00:03:11,640 Speaker 1: come before Donald Trump has had some level of political 49 00:03:11,720 --> 00:03:15,640 Speaker 1: experience or or a lot degree. I mean they in 50 00:03:15,720 --> 00:03:20,079 Speaker 1: fact were lawyers, um so, or they had military experience. 51 00:03:20,440 --> 00:03:23,240 Speaker 1: So it is true that every single one of our 52 00:03:23,240 --> 00:03:28,200 Speaker 1: presidents before had some level of governmental, military, or legal service. 53 00:03:28,600 --> 00:03:33,240 Speaker 1: They were not um you know, complete outsiders like President Trump, 54 00:03:33,440 --> 00:03:38,120 Speaker 1: who is a businessman who really had no elective office 55 00:03:38,160 --> 00:03:41,440 Speaker 1: experience or experience inside a party. So I just want 56 00:03:41,480 --> 00:03:44,200 Speaker 1: to take issue with that. The second thing is certainly, 57 00:03:44,280 --> 00:03:48,280 Speaker 1: in our system, anyone who has legitimate, valid claims can 58 00:03:48,400 --> 00:03:52,640 Speaker 1: bring those in a court and the court can decide 59 00:03:52,800 --> 00:03:55,960 Speaker 1: whether or not they have standing, and those claims should 60 00:03:56,000 --> 00:03:59,000 Speaker 1: be remedied. But what we have seen so far is 61 00:03:59,120 --> 00:04:02,880 Speaker 1: none of that. We have seen in fact, um baseless 62 00:04:02,920 --> 00:04:07,040 Speaker 1: allegations that are not even followed up by lawsuits. So 63 00:04:07,240 --> 00:04:09,160 Speaker 1: it is the case that what we have is a 64 00:04:09,240 --> 00:04:13,840 Speaker 1: rhetorical um action on behalf of the president, which really 65 00:04:13,880 --> 00:04:18,280 Speaker 1: amounts to demagoguery. Laurie, you make an interesting argument here 66 00:04:18,279 --> 00:04:20,440 Speaker 1: that I'd like to explore just for a moment, if 67 00:04:20,440 --> 00:04:22,200 Speaker 1: you will. Are you saying that anyone who doesn't have 68 00:04:22,240 --> 00:04:26,560 Speaker 1: political illegal experience should exclude them from becoming the president. No, 69 00:04:26,839 --> 00:04:30,120 Speaker 1: but what I am saying is that you know, you 70 00:04:30,160 --> 00:04:33,839 Speaker 1: would not fly a plane if you've never been a pilot. 71 00:04:34,240 --> 00:04:36,640 Speaker 1: And I think one of the things that is important 72 00:04:36,680 --> 00:04:40,880 Speaker 1: to realize is that you shouldn't learn to drive kind 73 00:04:40,880 --> 00:04:44,920 Speaker 1: of in politics. Um, at the level of the presidency, 74 00:04:45,279 --> 00:04:48,720 Speaker 1: we need fresh blood and outsiders and people from all 75 00:04:48,760 --> 00:04:52,080 Speaker 1: walks of life to be involved in politics. But for 76 00:04:52,120 --> 00:04:56,120 Speaker 1: goodness sakes, start at the city council. Start um, you know, 77 00:04:56,279 --> 00:04:59,920 Speaker 1: at the mayoral office, start in the house of best. 78 00:05:00,040 --> 00:05:01,719 Speaker 1: That's not for you to say, is it. That's that's 79 00:05:01,760 --> 00:05:03,760 Speaker 1: for people to vote. You know, if you want to 80 00:05:03,760 --> 00:05:05,920 Speaker 1: become a pilot, you have to get a license. There 81 00:05:05,960 --> 00:05:08,599 Speaker 1: are legal requirements to become a pilot. But to become 82 00:05:08,600 --> 00:05:11,120 Speaker 1: the president of the United States needs to be born 83 00:05:11,120 --> 00:05:14,240 Speaker 1: in America and it's up for people to vote for you. 84 00:05:14,240 --> 00:05:16,880 Speaker 1: You're absolutely right but in politics, it is the only 85 00:05:16,920 --> 00:05:20,479 Speaker 1: profession in which we think no experience is good experience. 86 00:05:20,720 --> 00:05:23,200 Speaker 1: And I think that that has had a detrimental effect 87 00:05:23,400 --> 00:05:26,720 Speaker 1: on our system over time, because it is actually just 88 00:05:26,839 --> 00:05:30,000 Speaker 1: a myth that the Framers were farmers. They were not. 89 00:05:30,279 --> 00:05:34,440 Speaker 1: Thomas Jefferson, in fact, had the most elective office experience 90 00:05:34,720 --> 00:05:38,479 Speaker 1: of any president who has ever served prior to his 91 00:05:38,600 --> 00:05:42,479 Speaker 1: term in office. Laara, we appreciate your perspective this morning. 92 00:05:42,520 --> 00:05:45,920 Speaker 1: Thank you, Lara Brown. Their associate professor and director at 93 00:05:45,920 --> 00:05:51,880 Speaker 1: the Graduate School of Political Management of the George Washington University. 94 00:05:53,640 --> 00:05:57,279 Speaker 1: Jeffrey Rosenberg with this now Black Rock portfolio manager of 95 00:05:57,360 --> 00:06:02,320 Speaker 1: their systematic multi strategy. From Jeffrey, good morning to you. 96 00:06:02,760 --> 00:06:05,360 Speaker 1: The bond market and it's dynamics, and I must point 97 00:06:05,360 --> 00:06:09,240 Speaker 1: out that Mr Rosenberg is truly expert at the mathematics 98 00:06:09,279 --> 00:06:12,719 Speaker 1: and the rates of changes within the mix of fixed income. 99 00:06:13,080 --> 00:06:17,159 Speaker 1: Jeff Rosenberg, can you glean from the bond market what 100 00:06:17,320 --> 00:06:21,960 Speaker 1: the bet is on stimulus? You know, not really in 101 00:06:22,080 --> 00:06:24,200 Speaker 1: terms of I think you're talking about, you know, the 102 00:06:24,240 --> 00:06:27,960 Speaker 1: debate about fiscal stimulus in a Lane Duck session. Tom, 103 00:06:28,000 --> 00:06:30,400 Speaker 1: is that the I mean like that of the how 104 00:06:30,480 --> 00:06:33,880 Speaker 1: much of this of it, just the crazy position that 105 00:06:33,920 --> 00:06:36,679 Speaker 1: we're in right now. You know, you're so good, Jeff, 106 00:06:36,680 --> 00:06:39,480 Speaker 1: at the rates of changes, spreads and all that. Can 107 00:06:39,520 --> 00:06:43,279 Speaker 1: you glean a policy response out of it? I wouldn't. 108 00:06:43,400 --> 00:06:45,040 Speaker 1: I wouldn't go that far time. I think what you're 109 00:06:45,040 --> 00:06:49,360 Speaker 1: seeing here is a good report from the labor market, 110 00:06:49,600 --> 00:06:52,720 Speaker 1: reminding us that there is labor market healing going on. 111 00:06:52,960 --> 00:06:56,520 Speaker 1: And post election you had cleaned up a lot of 112 00:06:56,560 --> 00:07:01,200 Speaker 1: the crowded positioning around the bear steepening rum fiscal policy. 113 00:07:01,360 --> 00:07:05,480 Speaker 1: So you're coming into today's report with a lot of 114 00:07:05,520 --> 00:07:09,120 Speaker 1: positioning that is more neutral with respect to longer term 115 00:07:09,160 --> 00:07:13,640 Speaker 1: growth inflation expectations post the big flattening that we saw 116 00:07:13,760 --> 00:07:17,480 Speaker 1: after the election and we priced out the blue wave. Now, 117 00:07:17,520 --> 00:07:19,320 Speaker 1: I think what you're seeing here is not so much 118 00:07:19,360 --> 00:07:23,320 Speaker 1: about a bond market view towards stimulus, but simply that 119 00:07:23,360 --> 00:07:27,560 Speaker 1: the stimulus is naturally occurring as the labor markets heel. 120 00:07:27,760 --> 00:07:33,239 Speaker 1: It's a pretty strong report, strong vote of confidence pun 121 00:07:33,280 --> 00:07:40,280 Speaker 1: intended there, hopefully caught that around, thank you, Sorry, sorry, 122 00:07:40,800 --> 00:07:44,600 Speaker 1: But but really about about the strengthening in the in 123 00:07:44,640 --> 00:07:46,800 Speaker 1: the real economy. Now that's going to be challenged again 124 00:07:46,840 --> 00:07:49,040 Speaker 1: as we as we turn our attentions away from the 125 00:07:49,040 --> 00:07:52,320 Speaker 1: election back to the virus and what it does to 126 00:07:52,800 --> 00:07:56,440 Speaker 1: then clamp down again. This is a little bit backward looking, right. 127 00:07:56,480 --> 00:07:58,880 Speaker 1: This is last month and when we look forward, there's 128 00:07:58,880 --> 00:08:01,880 Speaker 1: still some some challenge just but there is the recovery 129 00:08:02,080 --> 00:08:04,320 Speaker 1: in the labor market that should be better for growth 130 00:08:04,400 --> 00:08:06,280 Speaker 1: and inflation. So you're seeing the little bit of the 131 00:08:06,320 --> 00:08:08,640 Speaker 1: steepening here today in the bond market. Jeff yesterday I 132 00:08:08,640 --> 00:08:10,400 Speaker 1: fed share. J Powell came out and he said that 133 00:08:10,480 --> 00:08:14,600 Speaker 1: the labor market recovery is halfway done at best. He 134 00:08:14,640 --> 00:08:18,640 Speaker 1: also reiterated his view that monetary stimulus has been supportive 135 00:08:18,680 --> 00:08:21,120 Speaker 1: for the economy and will continue to do so. They 136 00:08:21,160 --> 00:08:24,600 Speaker 1: are discussing possibly adjusting some of their bond purchases as 137 00:08:24,640 --> 00:08:29,480 Speaker 1: it purchases to further support the economy. The question I 138 00:08:29,560 --> 00:08:31,880 Speaker 1: have is what are they looking at that we're not seeing, 139 00:08:31,920 --> 00:08:35,720 Speaker 1: because this report indicates a labor market recovery that's really 140 00:08:35,840 --> 00:08:39,520 Speaker 1: on course. Yeah, Well, I think they're looking at the 141 00:08:39,600 --> 00:08:43,360 Speaker 1: cumulative losses and and looking at the totality of the damage. 142 00:08:43,440 --> 00:08:47,480 Speaker 1: It was a very significant um damage that has been done, 143 00:08:47,520 --> 00:08:49,559 Speaker 1: and we've had a lot of recovery, but we haven't 144 00:08:49,559 --> 00:08:52,360 Speaker 1: had the complete recovery. And remember what the FETE is 145 00:08:52,400 --> 00:08:55,560 Speaker 1: looking for is to get the labor market back to 146 00:08:55,640 --> 00:08:59,160 Speaker 1: where it was before, to run the economy hot, to 147 00:08:59,360 --> 00:09:04,000 Speaker 1: let the game as from uh, strong labor markets spread 148 00:09:04,040 --> 00:09:06,280 Speaker 1: throughout the economy. These are all the goals. So they're 149 00:09:06,280 --> 00:09:10,120 Speaker 1: going to hold this highly accommodative and really the debate 150 00:09:10,280 --> 00:09:14,360 Speaker 1: is not holding the highly accommodative substance, but rather when 151 00:09:14,400 --> 00:09:17,160 Speaker 1: do they ramp it up even more in face of 152 00:09:17,440 --> 00:09:20,160 Speaker 1: what was going on in Europe? A lot of questions 153 00:09:20,200 --> 00:09:24,320 Speaker 1: about that, how will accommodation, Where are your further what 154 00:09:24,400 --> 00:09:27,760 Speaker 1: are your further tools for providing even more accommodation, So 155 00:09:27,840 --> 00:09:32,200 Speaker 1: all that focus on the character of the purchase program. 156 00:09:32,200 --> 00:09:35,960 Speaker 1: It's composition, its size, its timing. That's what we'll look for. 157 00:09:36,080 --> 00:09:39,079 Speaker 1: Obviously didn't get that yesterday. Uh you know, we'll look 158 00:09:39,160 --> 00:09:41,040 Speaker 1: for it whether it's in December, in the in the 159 00:09:41,040 --> 00:09:44,439 Speaker 1: new year. And that's really what the FED has left 160 00:09:44,480 --> 00:09:48,559 Speaker 1: in the toolbox to address the needs for further accommodation 161 00:09:48,960 --> 00:09:51,360 Speaker 1: as we get through the fear of this you know, 162 00:09:51,480 --> 00:09:54,719 Speaker 1: winter surge in the virus. Well, yesterday Frederick Michigan came 163 00:09:54,720 --> 00:09:56,840 Speaker 1: on our show, a former FED governor, and he said 164 00:09:57,080 --> 00:09:59,760 Speaker 1: he doesn't think the FED has any more tools left 165 00:10:00,040 --> 00:10:02,840 Speaker 1: to support the economy. It does seem like the market 166 00:10:02,920 --> 00:10:05,360 Speaker 1: is betting that the Federal Reserve will be able to 167 00:10:05,520 --> 00:10:08,880 Speaker 1: at least stimulate as a prices further with junk bond 168 00:10:08,960 --> 00:10:11,920 Speaker 1: yields falling to the lowest since two thousand and fourteen, 169 00:10:12,000 --> 00:10:16,199 Speaker 1: but not necessarily edify this economy. Do you agree with 170 00:10:16,240 --> 00:10:18,880 Speaker 1: that view, the idea that you can go into risky 171 00:10:18,920 --> 00:10:21,439 Speaker 1: your debt with the idea that the FED will backstop 172 00:10:21,480 --> 00:10:24,560 Speaker 1: you even if the economy continues to be sluggish and 173 00:10:24,600 --> 00:10:28,000 Speaker 1: fails to recover on pace. Well, what the what the 174 00:10:28,120 --> 00:10:32,760 Speaker 1: credit market interventions are really about is the ability of 175 00:10:32,800 --> 00:10:37,120 Speaker 1: the FED to use its lending facilities to extend a 176 00:10:37,200 --> 00:10:42,080 Speaker 1: credit cycle to postpone the impact of cash flow disruptions 177 00:10:42,120 --> 00:10:45,439 Speaker 1: from COVID, and that's been a very successful program to 178 00:10:45,559 --> 00:10:50,640 Speaker 1: bringing back financial market functioning, which is exactly the the 179 00:10:50,720 --> 00:10:53,120 Speaker 1: point of those policies. So I think there's a lot 180 00:10:53,160 --> 00:10:56,600 Speaker 1: of room for the FED to extend that to support 181 00:10:56,679 --> 00:11:01,920 Speaker 1: financial market functioning, to dampen credit market volatility, and provide 182 00:11:01,960 --> 00:11:06,840 Speaker 1: that lubricant for more credit functioning. But the FED can't 183 00:11:06,840 --> 00:11:11,160 Speaker 1: fix the fundamental issues of COVID, and it's disruption in 184 00:11:11,200 --> 00:11:15,120 Speaker 1: the economy, and most importantly, it's disruption to business models. 185 00:11:15,120 --> 00:11:17,719 Speaker 1: You know, Powell said another thing, you know, taking out 186 00:11:17,720 --> 00:11:20,800 Speaker 1: a loan. This is more in the main street lending facility, 187 00:11:20,840 --> 00:11:23,480 Speaker 1: but it applies to the large companies as well. Taking 188 00:11:23,480 --> 00:11:25,880 Speaker 1: out a loan that you can't afford isn't necessarily going 189 00:11:25,920 --> 00:11:28,920 Speaker 1: to be a solution for large companies. It is a 190 00:11:28,960 --> 00:11:32,760 Speaker 1: solution to postpone to buy them time. And financial markets 191 00:11:32,800 --> 00:11:36,080 Speaker 1: like that because the longer you defer, you delay, you 192 00:11:36,160 --> 00:11:40,720 Speaker 1: postpone incidents of default. You're earning coupons because you're using 193 00:11:40,760 --> 00:11:43,560 Speaker 1: that borrowing to pay the current interest, and so you 194 00:11:43,559 --> 00:11:45,319 Speaker 1: can kind of kick the can down the road here 195 00:11:45,320 --> 00:11:47,240 Speaker 1: for a long time. But there is still a reckoning 196 00:11:47,520 --> 00:11:50,520 Speaker 1: for business models that don't work in a post COVID economy. 197 00:11:50,640 --> 00:11:55,080 Speaker 1: They're gonna need a restructuring. Jeff Rosenberg in this chaos, 198 00:11:55,800 --> 00:12:00,839 Speaker 1: how do you be systematic? If you change that black Rock, 199 00:12:01,600 --> 00:12:07,560 Speaker 1: how do you affect systematic? Yeah, Well, systematic has a 200 00:12:07,600 --> 00:12:10,840 Speaker 1: lot of different applications, but one of the key applications 201 00:12:11,160 --> 00:12:14,800 Speaker 1: to being a systematic investor is is not relying on 202 00:12:15,080 --> 00:12:18,360 Speaker 1: very concentrated positions. You know, a really good example is 203 00:12:18,640 --> 00:12:21,679 Speaker 1: not relying on the ability to forecast the outlook for 204 00:12:21,720 --> 00:12:26,320 Speaker 1: the election. Again we're fooled by polsters. Again, the market 205 00:12:26,400 --> 00:12:29,600 Speaker 1: is surprised. So when you have a very concentrated portfolio, 206 00:12:30,040 --> 00:12:34,800 Speaker 1: you're more vulnerable to the inability to make those forecasts. 207 00:12:34,880 --> 00:12:38,840 Speaker 1: Rather than having concentrated positions, systematic investing has a focus 208 00:12:38,920 --> 00:12:44,040 Speaker 1: on breadth, lots of lots of differentiated and diversified positions 209 00:12:44,080 --> 00:12:48,000 Speaker 1: that aren't reliant on one big macro theme. That helps 210 00:12:48,040 --> 00:12:52,360 Speaker 1: the systematic investment process sort of work through the big 211 00:12:52,400 --> 00:12:55,959 Speaker 1: macro issues and take away a focus in the portfolio 212 00:12:56,080 --> 00:13:00,840 Speaker 1: from betting on direction to instead extracting rich hearns from 213 00:13:01,160 --> 00:13:04,760 Speaker 1: dispersion from differences, and these kinds of environments and these 214 00:13:04,840 --> 00:13:07,959 Speaker 1: kinds of events are actually helpful for boosting the amount 215 00:13:08,000 --> 00:13:11,160 Speaker 1: of dispersion and it's very supportive to that type of 216 00:13:11,240 --> 00:13:15,120 Speaker 1: investment approach. Jeffrey Rosenberg, thank you so much. Interesting treaties there, folks, 217 00:13:15,120 --> 00:13:18,439 Speaker 1: And where the bond market is amid the job's report, 218 00:13:18,520 --> 00:13:24,400 Speaker 1: amid the elections, This is a joy. She's been with 219 00:13:24,480 --> 00:13:26,920 Speaker 1: us almost daily, workspect we I think we may hire 220 00:13:26,920 --> 00:13:29,560 Speaker 1: her for teen surveillance as well. When do you show 221 00:13:29,559 --> 00:13:32,960 Speaker 1: her with us out of Scenic Providence at Brown University? 222 00:13:32,960 --> 00:13:35,640 Speaker 1: And we're thrilled she could join us this morning. Wendy, 223 00:13:35,679 --> 00:13:37,360 Speaker 1: I'm gonna do this to you. I'm gonna give you 224 00:13:37,400 --> 00:13:40,199 Speaker 1: an open question. What did you think of the president's 225 00:13:40,200 --> 00:13:45,439 Speaker 1: speech last night? I thought it was the most destructive 226 00:13:45,520 --> 00:13:48,200 Speaker 1: speech to the democracy at her speak make since he 227 00:13:48,280 --> 00:13:51,439 Speaker 1: ran for president. I think sometimes Trump gets a raw 228 00:13:51,480 --> 00:13:53,800 Speaker 1: deals and I'm he points out things that are true 229 00:13:53,960 --> 00:13:56,320 Speaker 1: and then it gets all distorted. But in this case, 230 00:13:56,360 --> 00:13:58,360 Speaker 1: there was absolutely no truth to what I was saying 231 00:13:58,360 --> 00:14:00,480 Speaker 1: and what I'm worried about. Our people on the ground 232 00:14:00,840 --> 00:14:03,160 Speaker 1: counting the votes. These are people like you and me. 233 00:14:03,480 --> 00:14:07,240 Speaker 1: They're just doing their civic duty there in you know, Maracoba, Arizona. 234 00:14:07,280 --> 00:14:08,720 Speaker 1: They get out at one in the morning. There's a 235 00:14:08,720 --> 00:14:10,920 Speaker 1: bunch of people outside in the parking lot taking pictures 236 00:14:10,960 --> 00:14:13,319 Speaker 1: of that have cars and their license plates. I mean, 237 00:14:13,360 --> 00:14:16,040 Speaker 1: this is just incredibly frightening. You know, people could get 238 00:14:16,120 --> 00:14:19,160 Speaker 1: hurt with what the words of the president in the 239 00:14:19,200 --> 00:14:22,080 Speaker 1: White House briefing room with the residential seal. You know, 240 00:14:22,160 --> 00:14:24,800 Speaker 1: I if he wants to sue, he can sue. George W. 241 00:14:24,920 --> 00:14:27,560 Speaker 1: Bush sued and it worked for him. That's the American way, 242 00:14:27,880 --> 00:14:30,520 Speaker 1: you know, are very lititious society. But I thought it 243 00:14:30,600 --> 00:14:34,680 Speaker 1: was such an affront to just this sort of soul 244 00:14:34,760 --> 00:14:37,520 Speaker 1: of the democracy, and I just couldn't believe, and I 245 00:14:37,600 --> 00:14:39,800 Speaker 1: didn't think it was worthy. He could win Arizona. You know, 246 00:14:39,880 --> 00:14:41,960 Speaker 1: Pennsylvania is not over yet. He's still in the lead. 247 00:14:42,320 --> 00:14:44,720 Speaker 1: You know. Yeah, Georgia flipped, but it's only barely a 248 00:14:44,760 --> 00:14:46,800 Speaker 1: thousand votes. I mean, there are lots of ways this 249 00:14:46,880 --> 00:14:49,680 Speaker 1: election could still go. Theoretically, We'll see what happens with 250 00:14:49,680 --> 00:14:52,840 Speaker 1: Pennsylvania today. But I don't think he did himself any favors, 251 00:14:52,840 --> 00:14:54,800 Speaker 1: and I don't think he did the Republican Party any favors. 252 00:14:55,200 --> 00:14:59,000 Speaker 1: Professor Schiller, what is the historical precedent for this type 253 00:14:59,000 --> 00:15:02,400 Speaker 1: of rhetoric and oversight of poll workers who are just 254 00:15:02,480 --> 00:15:06,360 Speaker 1: diligently trying to count the checked boxes. Well, I mean, 255 00:15:06,480 --> 00:15:09,160 Speaker 1: this is a really fascinating take a lot longer than 256 00:15:09,200 --> 00:15:11,200 Speaker 1: what we have, but I mean, yes, there has been 257 00:15:11,240 --> 00:15:13,160 Speaker 1: a lot of this rhetoric in the past. Certainly in 258 00:15:13,160 --> 00:15:16,640 Speaker 1: the late nineteenth century, parties were gearing up as mass organizations. 259 00:15:16,800 --> 00:15:20,520 Speaker 1: They were incredibly vitriolic they owned newspapers, they were spreading 260 00:15:20,560 --> 00:15:23,200 Speaker 1: all sorts of information with no check. There have been 261 00:15:23,240 --> 00:15:25,760 Speaker 1: periods of time in the past where this has been 262 00:15:26,000 --> 00:15:29,080 Speaker 1: very similar in American politics, So we have had this 263 00:15:29,160 --> 00:15:31,880 Speaker 1: kind of dispute, but you know, it started really with 264 00:15:31,920 --> 00:15:34,240 Speaker 1: the civil rights movement and thinking about making sure that 265 00:15:34,240 --> 00:15:36,760 Speaker 1: African American voters could vote, particularly in the South, and 266 00:15:36,840 --> 00:15:39,920 Speaker 1: thinking about how do you watch for violations or rejections 267 00:15:39,960 --> 00:15:42,479 Speaker 1: or turning people away from the polls. So it's relatively 268 00:15:42,600 --> 00:15:46,640 Speaker 1: new to have this kind of observational activity in the polls. 269 00:15:46,680 --> 00:15:48,840 Speaker 1: It's not, you know, more than sixty years old at best, 270 00:15:49,160 --> 00:15:51,200 Speaker 1: so we're still, you know, new at it. But by 271 00:15:51,240 --> 00:15:53,880 Speaker 1: all counts, the Republican Governor of Georgia and the Republican 272 00:15:54,000 --> 00:15:56,640 Speaker 1: Secretary of State of Georgia has had this practice there, 273 00:15:56,680 --> 00:15:59,120 Speaker 1: Republicans and Democrats. But the bigger point is it's going 274 00:15:59,200 --> 00:16:01,600 Speaker 1: to take a little heavy lifting by people who maybe 275 00:16:01,600 --> 00:16:04,200 Speaker 1: are on the sidelines. Maybe you support the Republican Party, fine, 276 00:16:04,240 --> 00:16:07,080 Speaker 1: good for you. But when you attack the actual integrity 277 00:16:07,080 --> 00:16:09,720 Speaker 1: of the voting process, which gave Republicans victories in the 278 00:16:09,800 --> 00:16:12,920 Speaker 1: Senate and victories in the House, and victories and state legislatures. 279 00:16:13,160 --> 00:16:15,200 Speaker 1: Then you're attacking the whole democracy. So you have to 280 00:16:15,200 --> 00:16:17,840 Speaker 1: step up and say, listen, maybe you lost the election, 281 00:16:18,360 --> 00:16:21,160 Speaker 1: but it's got a really really um you know, really 282 00:16:21,240 --> 00:16:24,440 Speaker 1: bother President drump if he loses, but all of the 283 00:16:24,480 --> 00:16:27,160 Speaker 1: Republicans that he believe he's carried over the last four 284 00:16:27,240 --> 00:16:30,320 Speaker 1: years keep their seats. Wendy, there's also a question if 285 00:16:30,360 --> 00:16:32,520 Speaker 1: all of those Republicans that keep their seats, how do 286 00:16:32,600 --> 00:16:36,400 Speaker 1: they respond to the Republican Party post Trump? The idea 287 00:16:36,480 --> 00:16:40,240 Speaker 1: that if he is confirmed to have lost this presidential election, 288 00:16:40,800 --> 00:16:43,480 Speaker 1: what does the Republican Party look like in the next 289 00:16:43,480 --> 00:16:47,160 Speaker 1: two for ten years? Well, if if I'm the Walgan Party, 290 00:16:47,240 --> 00:16:49,600 Speaker 1: I did great in this election, and I did great 291 00:16:49,640 --> 00:16:54,200 Speaker 1: because probably I represented a more quote unquote stable alternative 292 00:16:54,320 --> 00:16:56,840 Speaker 1: to a lot what the Democratic Party or symbolically the 293 00:16:56,880 --> 00:16:59,560 Speaker 1: different party was offering. So you just keep going. You 294 00:16:59,640 --> 00:17:01,960 Speaker 1: just one, you know, you don't shift gears. The question 295 00:17:02,000 --> 00:17:04,199 Speaker 1: is how do you separate from President Trump if you 296 00:17:04,320 --> 00:17:07,720 Speaker 1: can and if he loses And listen, you know they're 297 00:17:07,720 --> 00:17:10,440 Speaker 1: looking at two. Mitch McConnell wants to keep the Senate 298 00:17:10,440 --> 00:17:12,720 Speaker 1: for two. You know, you have two people come out 299 00:17:12,720 --> 00:17:16,120 Speaker 1: Ted Cruise Lindsay Graham probably trying to run from President four. 300 00:17:16,320 --> 00:17:18,280 Speaker 1: So you left two wings of the party. The wing 301 00:17:18,280 --> 00:17:19,960 Speaker 1: of the party that wants to sort of be Trump 302 00:17:20,040 --> 00:17:24,320 Speaker 1: is um and win and Becaus versus all the other 303 00:17:24,359 --> 00:17:26,840 Speaker 1: ones who just won. And frankly, maybe you don't want 304 00:17:26,880 --> 00:17:29,919 Speaker 1: the headache of dealing with Trump and defending Trump for 305 00:17:30,000 --> 00:17:33,200 Speaker 1: the next two to four years. Professor Schiller, We've got 306 00:17:33,200 --> 00:17:35,680 Speaker 1: a Dale's a year right now, so you keep coming back. 307 00:17:35,800 --> 00:17:39,760 Speaker 1: In eighteen fifty five, Mr Seward walked out of the 308 00:17:39,760 --> 00:17:42,000 Speaker 1: Wig Party and killed it. He went over to a 309 00:17:42,080 --> 00:17:46,840 Speaker 1: nascent Republican Party and of course served Uh with President Lincoln. 310 00:17:47,160 --> 00:17:52,360 Speaker 1: How close are the Republicans to in eighteen fifty five? Uh, 311 00:17:52,560 --> 00:17:55,560 Speaker 1: they're not doing that. I mean, I think McConnell's tweets, 312 00:17:55,600 --> 00:17:58,440 Speaker 1: you know, Today's morning, I believe the exactly carry middle 313 00:17:58,480 --> 00:18:00,520 Speaker 1: of the roop right. He's not walking away from Trump, 314 00:18:00,560 --> 00:18:03,440 Speaker 1: but he's not walking towards Trump either. I mean, really, 315 00:18:03,480 --> 00:18:05,800 Speaker 1: if you're them, isn't it better to have Biden in 316 00:18:05,800 --> 00:18:08,200 Speaker 1: the White House when you're running again in two and 317 00:18:08,240 --> 00:18:11,160 Speaker 1: you want to solidify the Republican gains this time around? 318 00:18:11,400 --> 00:18:13,880 Speaker 1: You don't want the same party president because mid terms 319 00:18:13,880 --> 00:18:15,959 Speaker 1: are bad for the party of the president. So in 320 00:18:16,040 --> 00:18:19,240 Speaker 1: every politically strategic way, it's better for the Democrats of 321 00:18:19,320 --> 00:18:21,720 Speaker 1: the Republicans. I'm sorry in Congress who just won re 322 00:18:21,800 --> 00:18:24,880 Speaker 1: election to have Joe Biden in rather than Trump, because 323 00:18:24,880 --> 00:18:27,000 Speaker 1: they can block every major thing he wants to do, 324 00:18:27,240 --> 00:18:29,119 Speaker 1: so there's not gonna be a lot of legislative change. 325 00:18:29,320 --> 00:18:32,280 Speaker 1: It's almost an ideal situation from Mitch McConnell to have 326 00:18:32,320 --> 00:18:35,040 Speaker 1: Trump lose and Biden win barely so, I think. But 327 00:18:35,040 --> 00:18:37,119 Speaker 1: but there's millions and millions of people who voted for 328 00:18:37,160 --> 00:18:39,280 Speaker 1: Trump who will be devastated and may or may not 329 00:18:39,320 --> 00:18:42,040 Speaker 1: accept this selection result. What do the Republicans do then 330 00:18:42,359 --> 00:18:44,840 Speaker 1: if we get into a situation where there's unrest, the 331 00:18:44,920 --> 00:18:47,720 Speaker 1: same question, you know, goes to the Democrats. So Tom, 332 00:18:47,720 --> 00:18:50,159 Speaker 1: you are asking, you know this perfect question. You know 333 00:18:50,240 --> 00:18:52,280 Speaker 1: what we see Mitt Romney rise up and sort of 334 00:18:52,320 --> 00:18:55,880 Speaker 1: disavow the president. Well, you know, we'll see. But I 335 00:18:55,920 --> 00:18:57,960 Speaker 1: think that you know, they win. I think in a 336 00:18:57,960 --> 00:19:00,240 Speaker 1: lot of ways if he loses, and that's got a 337 00:19:00,240 --> 00:19:02,720 Speaker 1: frustrating professor. We got a headline out. You know, the 338 00:19:02,760 --> 00:19:04,600 Speaker 1: next headline we're gonna get is they're gonna find a 339 00:19:04,640 --> 00:19:07,679 Speaker 1: thousand votes at al forn No Best Pizza and Providence 340 00:19:08,000 --> 00:19:11,840 Speaker 1: at Rhode Island. The US Postal System says, according to Politico, 341 00:19:12,480 --> 00:19:17,880 Speaker 1: they found a thousand ballots in Philadelphia. That's all I got, 342 00:19:17,920 --> 00:19:22,040 Speaker 1: Professor Schiller, Isn't that true most elections is like ballots 343 00:19:22,040 --> 00:19:25,040 Speaker 1: get lost. Yeah, I mean that's true. And there's also 344 00:19:25,040 --> 00:19:27,080 Speaker 1: a lot of ballots to get rejected a great point. 345 00:19:27,440 --> 00:19:30,240 Speaker 1: Thousands of ballots get rejected every every election that we 346 00:19:30,280 --> 00:19:32,920 Speaker 1: go through. But listen, here's what you want to watch. 347 00:19:33,000 --> 00:19:35,640 Speaker 1: I think I'm watching Erie. I'm watching Erie, Pennsylvania because 348 00:19:35,640 --> 00:19:37,639 Speaker 1: you've got some mail in ballots coming in from Erie. 349 00:19:37,880 --> 00:19:41,560 Speaker 1: That's sort of neck and neck presence. He went to Erie, Professor, 350 00:19:41,600 --> 00:19:45,280 Speaker 1: We've got to interrupt here, Lisa bringing that important news. Well, 351 00:19:45,280 --> 00:19:48,800 Speaker 1: we're just hearing that Joe Biden has taken the lead 352 00:19:48,960 --> 00:19:53,360 Speaker 1: in Pennsylvania as the count continues. This according to CNN 353 00:19:53,359 --> 00:19:56,720 Speaker 1: and MSNBC. We knew that there was I believe in 354 00:19:56,880 --> 00:20:01,000 Speaker 1: eighteen thousand vote gap. It does appear, based on CNN 355 00:20:01,000 --> 00:20:04,800 Speaker 1: and MSNBC, that they have superseded that gap and that 356 00:20:05,160 --> 00:20:09,360 Speaker 1: former Vice President Joe Biden has taken the lead. There 357 00:20:09,440 --> 00:20:13,280 Speaker 1: is a question Professor Schiller, how narrow is too narrow 358 00:20:13,359 --> 00:20:16,160 Speaker 1: for some of these leads to hold water, especially when 359 00:20:16,200 --> 00:20:19,200 Speaker 1: we talk about the social aspect, when you talk about 360 00:20:19,200 --> 00:20:22,440 Speaker 1: some of the rhetoric of of President Trump, is there 361 00:20:22,800 --> 00:20:26,560 Speaker 1: a delta that is big enough to sort of absolutely 362 00:20:26,600 --> 00:20:29,760 Speaker 1: cast decide any doubts about the victim, about the verdict 363 00:20:29,840 --> 00:20:33,960 Speaker 1: of this election. It's a fantastic question. Really quickly, Pennsylvania 364 00:20:34,040 --> 00:20:35,359 Speaker 1: which you want to look for, as I said, is 365 00:20:35,400 --> 00:20:38,560 Speaker 1: Western Pennsylvania's coming in now as well as Philadelphia. If 366 00:20:38,600 --> 00:20:41,080 Speaker 1: in fact some of those counties flip or they actually 367 00:20:41,160 --> 00:20:43,840 Speaker 1: provide a lot more balance for Joe Biden, that actually 368 00:20:43,880 --> 00:20:46,480 Speaker 1: helps mitigate the sort of attack on Philadelphia. So look 369 00:20:46,520 --> 00:20:50,439 Speaker 1: for the distribution regionally in Pennsylvania to see how Biden 370 00:20:50,480 --> 00:20:53,520 Speaker 1: accruise more votes. If it's distributed, then I think that 371 00:20:53,600 --> 00:20:56,440 Speaker 1: mitigates a little bit. And if finden big. If if 372 00:20:56,440 --> 00:20:59,400 Speaker 1: finds lead holds in Georgia and he wins for states 373 00:20:59,720 --> 00:21:02,840 Speaker 1: to controlled by Republican governors, I think that's gonna go 374 00:21:02,880 --> 00:21:05,240 Speaker 1: a long way, just sort of getting this sort of 375 00:21:05,280 --> 00:21:08,040 Speaker 1: settled in the American public's mind. So that's the really 376 00:21:08,119 --> 00:21:11,720 Speaker 1: next big step to dissuading people that this was stolen 377 00:21:11,760 --> 00:21:14,960 Speaker 1: by Philadelphia because if Biden doesn't need Pennsylvania in the end, 378 00:21:15,160 --> 00:21:16,439 Speaker 1: I think that takes a lot of era on the 379 00:21:16,520 --> 00:21:19,840 Speaker 1: tires of the Trump argument at the moment, Professor, Well, 380 00:21:20,040 --> 00:21:22,480 Speaker 1: thank you so much, greatly, greatly appreciate it. Wenday Show. 381 00:21:22,560 --> 00:21:25,639 Speaker 1: I just love having her run uh complete ownership of 382 00:21:25,680 --> 00:21:35,240 Speaker 1: our American history. Let's switch to Julia Cornado and talk 383 00:21:35,320 --> 00:21:39,199 Speaker 1: about something light here, Julia Cortona out of mecha policy perspective, 384 00:21:39,240 --> 00:21:44,879 Speaker 1: Julia's you know who Mookie Bets is? There we go. 385 00:21:45,080 --> 00:21:48,640 Speaker 1: That's why we booked Julia Cornado. Thank you so much 386 00:21:49,000 --> 00:21:51,960 Speaker 1: for being with us today. Mookie Bets is an economist. 387 00:21:52,000 --> 00:21:54,840 Speaker 1: He was I saw him an a looking for a 388 00:21:54,960 --> 00:22:00,840 Speaker 1: job down in Dallas or Austin. Talking the job report, Julia, 389 00:22:01,040 --> 00:22:03,399 Speaker 1: how do you get to an under seven percent jobs 390 00:22:03,440 --> 00:22:08,240 Speaker 1: handle with what Lisa and I see out in the streets. Well, 391 00:22:08,480 --> 00:22:12,600 Speaker 1: so this is one of those reports where the payroll 392 00:22:12,960 --> 00:22:16,480 Speaker 1: survey and the household survey gave us different messages. So 393 00:22:16,640 --> 00:22:20,320 Speaker 1: the payroll survey says that, you know, jobs growth is continuing. 394 00:22:20,400 --> 00:22:22,840 Speaker 1: It said, you know, it's kind of settled into a 395 00:22:22,960 --> 00:22:27,320 Speaker 1: slower pace than earlier in the summer um. Meanwhile, the 396 00:22:27,480 --> 00:22:30,320 Speaker 1: job creation in the household survey that underpins the unemployment 397 00:22:30,400 --> 00:22:34,320 Speaker 1: rate was almost four times the payroll number. So, um, 398 00:22:34,440 --> 00:22:36,600 Speaker 1: we want to take that with a grain of salt. 399 00:22:36,640 --> 00:22:39,680 Speaker 1: I think we know the direction of travel here, um, 400 00:22:39,720 --> 00:22:42,280 Speaker 1: and that is that the labor market has been resilient 401 00:22:42,960 --> 00:22:46,200 Speaker 1: uh to the loss of fiscal support. But we are 402 00:22:46,640 --> 00:22:49,960 Speaker 1: seeing a loss of momentum relative to the pace of 403 00:22:50,560 --> 00:22:53,440 Speaker 1: that we saw when we were reopening the economy. Now 404 00:22:53,440 --> 00:22:58,760 Speaker 1: we're kind of settling into this recovery dynamic, and you know, 405 00:22:58,880 --> 00:23:01,800 Speaker 1: that's where the haste going forward is more up in 406 00:23:01,840 --> 00:23:04,160 Speaker 1: the air. Are we going to see a faster recovery 407 00:23:04,240 --> 00:23:07,359 Speaker 1: or a slower recovery? That depends on both, number one, 408 00:23:07,480 --> 00:23:11,399 Speaker 1: the pandemic and the public health response to the pandemic 409 00:23:11,720 --> 00:23:15,280 Speaker 1: and our ability to control it in one, and then 410 00:23:15,359 --> 00:23:17,919 Speaker 1: to the amount of fiscal support that we get for 411 00:23:18,119 --> 00:23:22,040 Speaker 1: small businesses and the people that are still unemployed. Julia 412 00:23:22,359 --> 00:23:25,440 Speaker 1: I got a couple of messages this morning saying, Okay, 413 00:23:25,560 --> 00:23:28,080 Speaker 1: you're an angry bear, you're a permit bear. You tend 414 00:23:28,080 --> 00:23:31,600 Speaker 1: to be pessimistic. What's the negativity and this report? So 415 00:23:31,720 --> 00:23:35,399 Speaker 1: can you answer that? Is this an unambiguously amazingly good 416 00:23:35,600 --> 00:23:40,040 Speaker 1: jobs report versus expectations or is this uh sort of 417 00:23:40,640 --> 00:23:43,520 Speaker 1: a sort of headline number that looks good If you 418 00:23:43,520 --> 00:23:48,600 Speaker 1: look underneath, it's a little bit rougher. It's a solid report, um, 419 00:23:48,640 --> 00:23:51,280 Speaker 1: I think. Like again, if we look at the jobs number, 420 00:23:51,359 --> 00:23:55,040 Speaker 1: it's in line with expectations. And again, if you're looking 421 00:23:55,080 --> 00:23:59,840 Speaker 1: for the gray lining, it's that this we've we've lost 422 00:24:00,119 --> 00:24:04,080 Speaker 1: the reopening momentum that we had seen in earlier months, 423 00:24:04,080 --> 00:24:07,080 Speaker 1: and we've only regained just over half of the jobs 424 00:24:07,200 --> 00:24:11,119 Speaker 1: we lost in March and April. So that's still a 425 00:24:11,160 --> 00:24:13,680 Speaker 1: deep hole we're in, and the pace at which we're 426 00:24:13,680 --> 00:24:16,320 Speaker 1: climbing out of this hole has flowed. So there's your 427 00:24:16,640 --> 00:24:21,679 Speaker 1: there's your barish interpretation. It's not it's not absolutely bearish. 428 00:24:21,760 --> 00:24:24,160 Speaker 1: It's a relatively barish story. We want to we want 429 00:24:24,160 --> 00:24:26,760 Speaker 1: to bring people back as fast as possible. Now, you 430 00:24:26,800 --> 00:24:29,720 Speaker 1: look at an industry like leisure and hospitality, they simply 431 00:24:29,760 --> 00:24:32,280 Speaker 1: can't go back to normal right now because we still 432 00:24:32,320 --> 00:24:35,000 Speaker 1: are in a pandemic and that's going to be a 433 00:24:35,080 --> 00:24:40,560 Speaker 1: headwind going forward. We've done with the gloom. We want 434 00:24:40,560 --> 00:24:42,879 Speaker 1: to talk about baseball again. No, no, no, no, if 435 00:24:42,920 --> 00:24:47,879 Speaker 1: you're talking red sox, that's even worst gloom. Yeah, I 436 00:24:47,880 --> 00:24:51,040 Speaker 1: have to be medicated when we talk about the red sex, Julia. 437 00:24:51,200 --> 00:24:52,879 Speaker 1: I do want to talk about the gloom that I 438 00:24:52,960 --> 00:24:57,200 Speaker 1: heard from Chairman Paul yesterday, which frankly, folks all kidding aside, 439 00:24:57,640 --> 00:25:02,320 Speaker 1: links into Lisa's correct view of Two America's And boy 440 00:25:02,359 --> 00:25:07,240 Speaker 1: did he make clear loan demand from banks isn't there? 441 00:25:07,960 --> 00:25:12,000 Speaker 1: Inform our audience worldwide. What does it mean when we 442 00:25:12,119 --> 00:25:17,720 Speaker 1: say loan demand is just not there? Well, I think 443 00:25:17,760 --> 00:25:21,800 Speaker 1: that reflects that the recovery momentum is very much in question, 444 00:25:22,000 --> 00:25:25,000 Speaker 1: right it it's who's going to take out a loan 445 00:25:25,080 --> 00:25:29,359 Speaker 1: and borrow in the current environment. Um, you know, households 446 00:25:29,359 --> 00:25:33,680 Speaker 1: that are doing relatively well are you know, buying homes 447 00:25:34,320 --> 00:25:36,800 Speaker 1: And we've seen a lot of catch up there, but 448 00:25:36,920 --> 00:25:39,280 Speaker 1: broadly speaking, we're going to see a lot of caution 449 00:25:39,359 --> 00:25:42,600 Speaker 1: as long as the uncertainty is very high. Um. It 450 00:25:42,680 --> 00:25:45,159 Speaker 1: could be that now with the big uncertainty of the 451 00:25:45,240 --> 00:25:49,520 Speaker 1: election starting to move maybe maybe into the rear view here, 452 00:25:50,280 --> 00:25:53,000 Speaker 1: that will resolve one source of uncertainty. But the biggest 453 00:25:53,040 --> 00:25:57,720 Speaker 1: one is the pandemic. Uh. And it's you know, persistence 454 00:25:57,720 --> 00:26:00,000 Speaker 1: and staying power and how long it's going to disrupt 455 00:26:00,040 --> 00:26:02,720 Speaker 1: our lives. So that's going to keep I think a 456 00:26:02,760 --> 00:26:07,359 Speaker 1: lot of businesses and consumers a caution if you're just 457 00:26:07,440 --> 00:26:10,159 Speaker 1: joining us on Bloom Radio. Julia Cornado with us with 458 00:26:10,240 --> 00:26:13,680 Speaker 1: macro policy perspectives. Read in the screen down down one 459 00:26:13,800 --> 00:26:17,200 Speaker 1: thirty seven, it's just a quiet down twenty eight thousand 460 00:26:17,240 --> 00:26:21,280 Speaker 1: to fifty one on the Dallas p X down seventeen 461 00:26:21,359 --> 00:26:24,800 Speaker 1: points of vix is flat. The vix with forty like 462 00:26:25,000 --> 00:26:28,240 Speaker 1: three glooms ago from Lisa and it's come in with 463 00:26:28,280 --> 00:26:32,399 Speaker 1: a vengeance and it's like it's like Michael holland Nirvan 464 00:26:32,480 --> 00:26:35,280 Speaker 1: at twenty seven point six too. So that's a good 465 00:26:35,320 --> 00:26:37,600 Speaker 1: market this week, I should point out oil down a 466 00:26:37,680 --> 00:26:41,280 Speaker 1: dollar thirty seven eight eight on West Texas Intermediate Lisa 467 00:26:41,400 --> 00:26:43,560 Speaker 1: and Tom. I will just say a gloom is a 468 00:26:43,600 --> 00:26:46,359 Speaker 1: measure of about thirty eight seconds um in intervals, So 469 00:26:46,440 --> 00:26:50,840 Speaker 1: it's like an Avogadro number in physics something like that. 470 00:26:50,960 --> 00:26:53,280 Speaker 1: Where's the deficit? It's like, well, you know, four point 471 00:26:53,280 --> 00:26:55,879 Speaker 1: two times ten to the eight glooms. Oh dear lord, 472 00:26:55,920 --> 00:26:58,480 Speaker 1: people are like, what are we listening to? Okay, Julia, 473 00:26:58,640 --> 00:27:01,800 Speaker 1: let's get that gun track. With respect to the labor 474 00:27:01,840 --> 00:27:04,800 Speaker 1: market and what's going on with the pandemic, there is 475 00:27:04,840 --> 00:27:08,200 Speaker 1: this assumption that as the pandemic does worsen we're seeing 476 00:27:08,200 --> 00:27:11,280 Speaker 1: record numbers of cases, particularly in the Midwest, you're gonna 477 00:27:11,320 --> 00:27:13,480 Speaker 1: see things slowed down, but the FED will be able 478 00:27:13,520 --> 00:27:15,640 Speaker 1: to pump enough money into the system to keep things 479 00:27:15,680 --> 00:27:18,520 Speaker 1: going for long enough before we get a vaccine. And 480 00:27:18,560 --> 00:27:21,600 Speaker 1: that was definitely the tone out of Cha J. Powell yesterday. 481 00:27:21,760 --> 00:27:24,200 Speaker 1: Do you think that their quantitative easing is actually doing 482 00:27:24,200 --> 00:27:28,560 Speaker 1: anything to help the actual economy? Oh, for sure, there 483 00:27:28,760 --> 00:27:32,679 Speaker 1: is a positive transmission. It's not very efficient, but it 484 00:27:32,880 --> 00:27:37,720 Speaker 1: is one. It's short circuited a pandemic and recession from 485 00:27:37,760 --> 00:27:41,400 Speaker 1: becoming a financial crisis so early on that was extremely helpful. 486 00:27:41,480 --> 00:27:45,159 Speaker 1: That kept businesses on track, that kept credit flowing. And 487 00:27:45,160 --> 00:27:48,119 Speaker 1: where we've seen the most direct transmission is in the 488 00:27:48,160 --> 00:27:52,280 Speaker 1: housing sector, where we've seen a robust recovery and demand 489 00:27:52,320 --> 00:27:56,680 Speaker 1: also in autos UH and so that is facilitated by 490 00:27:56,720 --> 00:27:59,919 Speaker 1: low rates and the restoration of the flow of credit. 491 00:28:00,359 --> 00:28:04,080 Speaker 1: Now that said, um, you still have a very broad 492 00:28:04,160 --> 00:28:09,239 Speaker 1: base of pain in the consumer sector, pain and uncertainty, 493 00:28:09,440 --> 00:28:12,800 Speaker 1: and the FEDS tools don't really get to that, and 494 00:28:12,840 --> 00:28:17,440 Speaker 1: I mean Chair Powell has been explicit begging for fisticals 495 00:28:18,040 --> 00:28:24,720 Speaker 1: policy support. Uh. And unfortunately that's where UM that looks 496 00:28:24,800 --> 00:28:28,160 Speaker 1: more less likely than it did with a divided government 497 00:28:28,280 --> 00:28:31,840 Speaker 1: now in prospect. Uh. And so yes, the Fed will 498 00:28:31,880 --> 00:28:35,760 Speaker 1: do more, but we're going to probably maintain this disconnect 499 00:28:35,920 --> 00:28:40,120 Speaker 1: between markets and the broader economy with you know, a 500 00:28:40,200 --> 00:28:44,800 Speaker 1: slower labor market recovery. And yet the markets may feel 501 00:28:45,200 --> 00:28:49,320 Speaker 1: fine because companies and UM markets are going to still 502 00:28:49,360 --> 00:28:53,040 Speaker 1: better from the FEDS aggressive pods. Julius, Thank you so much. 503 00:28:53,120 --> 00:28:57,240 Speaker 1: Julia Cornado, MECRO Policy Perspectives. Thanks for listening to the 504 00:28:57,240 --> 00:29:03,720 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Surveillance podcast. Subscribe and listen to interviews on Apple Podcasts, SoundCloud, 505 00:29:04,120 --> 00:29:08,320 Speaker 1: or whichever podcast platform you prefer. I'm on Twitter at 506 00:29:08,360 --> 00:29:12,640 Speaker 1: Tom Keane before the podcast. You can always catch us worldwide. 507 00:29:13,080 --> 00:29:14,160 Speaker 1: I'm Bloomberg Radio