WEBVTT - O'Neil: Brazil is two nations with impeachment talk

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<v Speaker 1>Broadcasting live to New York, Cloomberg eleventh to Washington, d C,

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<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg one to Boston, Bloomberg twelve hundreds to San Francisco,

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<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg nine six to the country Serious Exam Channel one

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<v Speaker 1>nineteen and around the globe the Bloomberg Radio Plus Appen

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<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg dot Com. This is Bloomberk Surveillance and good Birday.

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<v Speaker 1>I'm Terry in Moscow, along with Tom Keene and Michael

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<v Speaker 1>McKee and the opening dal brought to you by Sector

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<v Speaker 1>can invest in the entire sector. Visits sector spdr s

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<v Speaker 1>dot com are called one six six Sector et F

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<v Speaker 1>stocks lower at the open, the sn P five hundred

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<v Speaker 1>down to tenths per cent or four points to twenty

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<v Speaker 1>seventy six, down, Jones Industrial average down a tenth of

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<v Speaker 1>upper cent or twenty one points to seventeen thousand, eight

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<v Speaker 1>hundred seventy six, and the nastacts down four tenths per

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<v Speaker 1>cent or nineteen points to eighteen ten. Your treasury down

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<v Speaker 1>four thirty seconds. See yeld one point seven six percent

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<v Speaker 1>yield on the two year point seven four percent. Now

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<v Speaker 1>I'm execrut oil down four point four percent or a

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<v Speaker 1>dollar seventy eight to thirty eight fifty eight of barrel comics.

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<v Speaker 1>Gold is up six tens percent or seven dollars ten

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<v Speaker 1>cents to twelve forty one eight n ounce. The euro

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<v Speaker 1>at other thirteen o one the yen one oh eight

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<v Speaker 1>point five nine. Tom and Mike Karen, thank you so much,

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<v Speaker 1>so much. It is a west east east west travel.

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<v Speaker 1>Very often we don't think north south from America down

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<v Speaker 1>to Brazil, or for that matter, from Europe to Africa.

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<v Speaker 1>North south is a different thing. Shannon O'Neill is Rockefeller

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<v Speaker 1>Senior Fellow for Latin America at the Consul on Foreign Relations,

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<v Speaker 1>and she's had the courage over her career to always

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<v Speaker 1>be looking uh north to south out of Yale and

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<v Speaker 1>Harvard University. Dr Nil, good morning. Your your book is

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<v Speaker 1>Two Nations Indivisible, which is about Mexico. Let's talk about

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<v Speaker 1>Brazil as a nation. Is it two nations this morning?

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<v Speaker 1>With all this talk of impeachment? It is two nations

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<v Speaker 1>this morning. And we saw yesterday long and somewhat tortuous process.

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<v Speaker 1>But the Lower House of Representatives vote for impeachment about

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<v Speaker 1>seventy of them decided that this current president, Delma Reception,

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<v Speaker 1>should be impeached. But we do need to remember there

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<v Speaker 1>are hundred and thirty seven votes to support her to

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<v Speaker 1>keep her in power. And we look back Brazil how

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<v Speaker 1>to impeach on proceeding against the president ben and when

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<v Speaker 1>he went up for this boat, there were only a

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<v Speaker 1>handful of people that support him. Here Dolma has a

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<v Speaker 1>real support and so that shows that there's huge divides

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<v Speaker 1>within brazil society about what should be done, what should

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<v Speaker 1>be done the I mean, an easy answer is to

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<v Speaker 1>say they need to fix the economy or get some

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<v Speaker 1>of the graft out of the government. But how easy

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<v Speaker 1>is it going to be to carry that out? I mean,

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<v Speaker 1>this is the challenge the new government will have. There's

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<v Speaker 1>a couple more procedures that need to go forward, but

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<v Speaker 1>it looks like by beginning to mid May, the vice

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<v Speaker 1>president will step in and become the president at least

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<v Speaker 1>while then the Senate goes forward with the actual impeachment proceedings.

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<v Speaker 1>So the Vice President Tamara will need to pull together

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<v Speaker 1>a coalition. He'll put new ministers in all of the

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<v Speaker 1>different ministries and try to begin this reform process. But

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<v Speaker 1>he will come in with a bit of a question

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<v Speaker 1>of legitimacy. This isn't an election, it's an impeachment proceeding.

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<v Speaker 1>And there's also a real challenge. How do you pull

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<v Speaker 1>Brazil have a recession that's now near you know, down

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<v Speaker 1>four percent so far this year, if surveillance jets down

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<v Speaker 1>eight thousand one dollars rounded up eight thousand, two hundred dollars,

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<v Speaker 1>business class around trip American Airlines, Tarrio, what do we find?

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<v Speaker 1>I can't figure out, Shannon, the protests in the street,

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<v Speaker 1>the linkage to Mr Lula russaf all the corruption. Where

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<v Speaker 1>is the public? So the public here is somewhat divided.

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<v Speaker 1>There are many people they're tired of the recession, They're

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<v Speaker 1>tired of hearing about the corruption scandals, much of which

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<v Speaker 1>are being uncovered by an independent judiciary. But they're seeing

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<v Speaker 1>the whole political class, much of the elite business class,

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<v Speaker 1>implicated a new scandal. So there's a real frustration and

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<v Speaker 1>you see that in opinion polls. Delmo recess public opinion

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<v Speaker 1>support has been near ten percent for last several months here,

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<v Speaker 1>so she has very little support the frustration of the

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<v Speaker 1>general public, but there are supporters from her party. The

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<v Speaker 1>Workers party that's been in power for twelve thirteen years.

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<v Speaker 1>Many of them have come out of poverty under Lula

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<v Speaker 1>and then her presidency. Many are worried about falling back,

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<v Speaker 1>that a new government might not keep the social support

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<v Speaker 1>of the other things that helped them move up the

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<v Speaker 1>economic scale. So there's a real uncertainty here, particularly within

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<v Speaker 1>the base that has traditionally supported her and her party. Well,

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<v Speaker 1>Vice President Turner doesn't have great public opinion numbers either.

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<v Speaker 1>What do we know about him exactly? So there's a

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<v Speaker 1>poll that said want Lula, excuse me, Dilma and teach,

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<v Speaker 1>and then fifty eight percent wanted to Mary and Teach.

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<v Speaker 1>So it's not as if he comes in with a

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<v Speaker 1>huge goodwill or backing of of the general population there.

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<v Speaker 1>He is a longstanding, very traditional politician within brazil system.

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<v Speaker 1>He's been around for a long time. He comes from

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<v Speaker 1>a party that is a very centrist party. It's the

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<v Speaker 1>biggest party in Brazil in terms of local offices and

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<v Speaker 1>the like that they hold, but they really have no ideology.

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<v Speaker 1>They've been many would say, a party for hire over

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<v Speaker 1>the last couple of decades as Brazil's democracy has grown,

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<v Speaker 1>and so they'll go with either a more conservative coalition

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<v Speaker 1>and more more progressive coalition m but what they want

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<v Speaker 1>our posts and what they want our financial resources. So

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<v Speaker 1>he also has the challenge within his own party one

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<v Speaker 1>of pushing forward to perform agenda, which he said he

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<v Speaker 1>will do, and he put forth a paper last at

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<v Speaker 1>the end of last year saying that this is what

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<v Speaker 1>he would do if he came into power. But he's

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<v Speaker 1>going to be a bit at his own party, of

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<v Speaker 1>which there's many mayors, there's many local representatives who are

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<v Speaker 1>going to be searching for state resources, particularly as Brazil

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<v Speaker 1>heads to its own midterm elections in mayoral elections which

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<v Speaker 1>come up next October. I looked and as you know

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<v Speaker 1>in the blocks that we have with you today this

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<v Speaker 1>half hour, tell me about the adjacent effects that we see,

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<v Speaker 1>the adjacent effects that we see on South America. Does

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<v Speaker 1>it have a knock on effect or is Brazil a

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<v Speaker 1>discreet moment? Just for Brazil, it has knock on effect.

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<v Speaker 1>And probably the biggest knock on effect we will see

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<v Speaker 1>is in Argentina, and that is right now a much

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<v Speaker 1>better story. Right we had twelve years under the kation

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<v Speaker 1>of government, also a very populoist government and that has

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<v Speaker 1>come to an end. Madicio Macary now is a their

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<v Speaker 1>center or center right, very market friendly government is trying

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<v Speaker 1>to turn around Argentina. In his first hundred plus days,

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<v Speaker 1>he's unified the exchange rate, he's reduced subsidies, he's resolved

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<v Speaker 1>the problems with the debt holdout. He's really bringing Argentina

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<v Speaker 1>back to him, to the markets, the global capital markets.

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<v Speaker 1>But Brazil is Argentina's largest trading partner, and so what's

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<v Speaker 1>happening in Brazil is hitting the Argentine economy and particularly

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<v Speaker 1>it's manufacturing sectors as automotive and other manufacturing sectors because

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<v Speaker 1>they're so linked. So Argentina tries to climb out of

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<v Speaker 1>its own economic problems and is making the right steps

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<v Speaker 1>reform wive policy wife to do so, they're getting hit

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<v Speaker 1>by what's happening in Brazil. The question then becomes how

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<v Speaker 1>quickly does Brazil get over this um or are we

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<v Speaker 1>going from the frying pan to the fire. You know,

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<v Speaker 1>I don't see a quick turnaround in Brazil. We saw

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<v Speaker 1>the markets are happy about this, the realit has been

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<v Speaker 1>strengthening over the last week or so. Because of this.

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<v Speaker 1>The other markets are are jumping up but I think

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<v Speaker 1>this is a longer term prospect. And Brazil it may

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<v Speaker 1>be an interim government that can make a few reform

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<v Speaker 1>that are necessary, but they're really going to have to

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<v Speaker 1>wait till you get democratic legitimacy back, and that might

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<v Speaker 1>be when we see another presidential election coming up. Will

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<v Speaker 1>continue with Shannon on Neil. Dr O'Neil. She's the only

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<v Speaker 1>one in the nation, Mike who has priced out the

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<v Speaker 1>wall between the US and Mexico to the square foot.

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<v Speaker 1>She waited across the Rio Grant to figure out the

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<v Speaker 1>price of the wall. Uh. We'll talk to Shannon neal

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<v Speaker 1>about Mexico. This is a with great respect, particularly for

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<v Speaker 1>all of our listeners on serious next m across the

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<v Speaker 1>Great Southwest and into Texas. This is uh a huge

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<v Speaker 1>topic and we'll talk to Shannon O'Neil about it. Mike,

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<v Speaker 1>what do you have over there? What do you see? Well,

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<v Speaker 1>just seeing no real reaction to the home builders numbers

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<v Speaker 1>this morning, and a lot of reaction continues at least

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<v Speaker 1>an equity markets to oil prices. Uh, you know they're

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<v Speaker 1>they're dragging down equities again today. But on a four eighteen,

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<v Speaker 1>you wonder how the economy gets into April. We'll be

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<v Speaker 1>didn't get some glimmers of that. We'll do that for

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<v Speaker 1>you much of the week. The down negative sixty two

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<v Speaker 1>the first print on the vix al point seven seven

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<v Speaker 1>point move fourteen thirty nine. Our surveillance has brought to

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<v Speaker 1>you by moncusc. Valvo. Visit mantus volvo dot com. Here's

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<v Speaker 1>Michael Barr with lose headlines My time. The death toll

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<v Speaker 1>from this weekend's earthquake and Ecuador is at two hundred

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<v Speaker 1>seventy two. Buildings were flattened by the devastating seven point

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<v Speaker 1>eight earthquake along the Pacific Ocean coast. World leaders from

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<v Speaker 1>Washington to the Vatican are offering their support to Ecuador.

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<v Speaker 1>It was on this day in nineteen o six the

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<v Speaker 1>devastating San Francisco earthquake took place. This is the first

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<v Speaker 1>year where all of the survivors of the quake are gone.

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<v Speaker 1>Texas Senator Ted Cruizes, responding delegations from Republican arrival Donald

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<v Speaker 1>Trump that Cruiz is trying to steal the presidential nomination

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<v Speaker 1>by rallying delegates in smaller states. Cruise, during a town

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<v Speaker 1>hall on ABC IS Good Morning America Today, called Trump

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<v Speaker 1>a sore loser in those five states starting from Utah,

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<v Speaker 1>North Dakota, Wisconsin, Colorado, and Wyoming. One point three million

0:10:14.559 --> 0:10:18.000
<v Speaker 1>people voted in those five states and he lost all five.

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<v Speaker 1>We have won five in a row, and Donald's upset,

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<v Speaker 1>so he's throwing a fit. The elite women have started

0:10:24.280 --> 0:10:26.440
<v Speaker 1>running just a few moments ago in the hundred twentieth

0:10:26.520 --> 0:10:29.240
<v Speaker 1>running of the Boston Marathon. The elite men will begin

0:10:29.280 --> 0:10:31.959
<v Speaker 1>in less than a half hour. About thirty thousand runners

0:10:32.160 --> 0:10:34.960
<v Speaker 1>from almost one hundred countries will take part in the race.

0:10:35.200 --> 0:10:38.480
<v Speaker 1>Security is tied along the twenties six point two mile course.

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<v Speaker 1>Global News twenty four hours a day. Michael Barr nighttime

0:10:41.760 --> 0:10:45.599
<v Speaker 1>and Michael, I'm not running this year. Oh shoot, and

0:10:45.880 --> 0:10:48.720
<v Speaker 1>you could win it. I once thought about it long ago,

0:10:50.320 --> 0:10:55.400
<v Speaker 1>long ago, long ago, and far away. It is immagical.

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<v Speaker 1>The buston marathis good morning, Bloomberg. Bloomberg Surveillance is brought

0:11:02.679 --> 0:11:04.440
<v Speaker 1>to you by Bank of American Mery Lynch. To them,

0:11:04.520 --> 0:11:06.439
<v Speaker 1>every day is Earth Day. They are committed to bringing

0:11:06.480 --> 0:11:09.640
<v Speaker 1>higher finance to lower carbon Marylynch, Pierce Center and Smith

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<v Speaker 1>Member f SI. Global Business News twenty four hours a

0:11:19.679 --> 0:11:22.880
<v Speaker 1>day at Bloomberg dot com, the Radio plus mobile app

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<v Speaker 1>and on your radio. This is a Bloomberg business flash

0:11:27.080 --> 0:11:29.360
<v Speaker 1>and I'm care at Moscow. There's updates brought to you

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<v Speaker 1>by National Realty Returns on cash and rented real estate.

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<v Speaker 1>Find them at n r I a dot net. U

0:11:36.320 --> 0:11:38.840
<v Speaker 1>s stocks are joining a decline in global equities, and

0:11:38.880 --> 0:11:42.480
<v Speaker 1>currencies of commodity exporting nations are slumping as scrude oil

0:11:42.559 --> 0:11:45.679
<v Speaker 1>tumbles after talks between major producers ended in Doha without

0:11:45.720 --> 0:11:48.920
<v Speaker 1>any agreement on limiting output. We checked the markets every

0:11:48.960 --> 0:11:52.079
<v Speaker 1>fifteen minutes throughout the trading day on Bloomberg, and the

0:11:52.240 --> 0:11:54.040
<v Speaker 1>S and P five hundred is down to tenths per

0:11:54.040 --> 0:11:57.480
<v Speaker 1>cent or three points to seventies seven. Now Jones industrial

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<v Speaker 1>average down less than a tenth of upper center twelve

0:11:59.760 --> 0:12:02.520
<v Speaker 1>point us to seventeen thousand, eight hundred eighty five. Then

0:12:02.520 --> 0:12:05.080
<v Speaker 1>as dacts down four tenths per cent or seventeen points

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<v Speaker 1>to forty nine twenty ten. Your treasury down seven thirty seconds.

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<v Speaker 1>The yield one point seven seven percent yield on the

0:12:11.200 --> 0:12:14.480
<v Speaker 1>two year point seven four percent NIMEX. Screude oil down

0:12:14.480 --> 0:12:16.280
<v Speaker 1>three and a half percent or a dollar forty to

0:12:16.440 --> 0:12:19.199
<v Speaker 1>thirty eight nineties six of barrel comes gold up three

0:12:19.200 --> 0:12:21.439
<v Speaker 1>tenths per cent, or four dollars twenty cents at twelve

0:12:21.480 --> 0:12:24.880
<v Speaker 1>thirty nine an ounce, the euro a dollar thirteen o two,

0:12:24.960 --> 0:12:28.440
<v Speaker 1>and the yen is at one oh eight point eight zero.

0:12:29.000 --> 0:12:31.640
<v Speaker 1>Morgan Stanley joining the parade of Wall Street banks that

0:12:31.720 --> 0:12:34.360
<v Speaker 1>beat profit estimates by cutting costs to counter a drop

0:12:34.360 --> 0:12:37.760
<v Speaker 1>in revenue from fixed income and equities trading. It shares

0:12:38.320 --> 0:12:41.319
<v Speaker 1>now down about three tenths percent at twenty five dollars

0:12:41.400 --> 0:12:44.680
<v Speaker 1>seventy cents. Confidence among US home builders was little change

0:12:44.720 --> 0:12:47.400
<v Speaker 1>in April, indicating the housing market lack momentum as the

0:12:47.480 --> 0:12:50.880
<v Speaker 1>spring selly selling season got under way. And that's a

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<v Speaker 1>bloom bird business flash. Tom and Mike Karen, thank you

0:12:55.120 --> 0:12:57.840
<v Speaker 1>so much. This is something I've really looked forward to.

0:12:57.960 --> 0:13:01.640
<v Speaker 1>Shannon O'Neill, he was provided, say, anthing on international relations,

0:13:02.559 --> 0:13:05.559
<v Speaker 1>migrating celts from the United States, on Cuba, on Brazil,

0:13:05.600 --> 0:13:09.440
<v Speaker 1>as we've been talking on our main focus, which is Mexico.

0:13:10.280 --> 0:13:12.840
<v Speaker 1>Shannon and I say this with great respect for both

0:13:12.880 --> 0:13:16.560
<v Speaker 1>sides of the debate. Is the discussion about a quote

0:13:16.600 --> 0:13:21.920
<v Speaker 1>unquote wall on the border that much different now than

0:13:21.960 --> 0:13:26.440
<v Speaker 1>in two thousand six ten years ago. You know, some

0:13:26.600 --> 0:13:29.960
<v Speaker 1>of the rhetoric is a bit different, and some of

0:13:29.960 --> 0:13:32.400
<v Speaker 1>the descriptions of Mexicans and why we need a roll

0:13:32.679 --> 0:13:35.640
<v Speaker 1>is a bit different. But we did see from two

0:13:35.640 --> 0:13:38.680
<v Speaker 1>thousand and six on, after the elections and and after

0:13:38.720 --> 0:13:41.959
<v Speaker 1>some of the discussions, we saw a big build up

0:13:42.000 --> 0:13:45.680
<v Speaker 1>in spending on the US Mexico border. We saw a

0:13:45.800 --> 0:13:50.360
<v Speaker 1>huge increase in the number of people of patrols, of

0:13:50.520 --> 0:13:53.240
<v Speaker 1>customs and border officials there. So we have been as

0:13:53.240 --> 0:13:58.000
<v Speaker 1>a country, United States, with bipartisan support investing in security

0:13:58.160 --> 0:14:00.880
<v Speaker 1>allowing along that border. And we do have a wall,

0:14:00.960 --> 0:14:03.679
<v Speaker 1>some seven hundred miles worth of wall in areas that

0:14:03.720 --> 0:14:05.920
<v Speaker 1>makes sense to actually have a wall. And I think

0:14:06.120 --> 0:14:08.839
<v Speaker 1>there's a lot of discussions and papers written about whether

0:14:09.120 --> 0:14:11.840
<v Speaker 1>a wall along the whole two thousand mile border makes

0:14:11.920 --> 0:14:14.720
<v Speaker 1>any sense in terms of economics and in terms of

0:14:14.760 --> 0:14:17.480
<v Speaker 1>what we actually want to do. But this is an

0:14:17.480 --> 0:14:20.320
<v Speaker 1>area actually the United has invested pretty significantly over the

0:14:20.360 --> 0:14:23.480
<v Speaker 1>last ten years to increase security there. And Mike, this

0:14:23.560 --> 0:14:26.840
<v Speaker 1>comes out of HR. Four four three seven, the Border Protection,

0:14:26.960 --> 0:14:31.440
<v Speaker 1>Anti Terrorism and Illegal Immigration Control Act, which I believe

0:14:31.560 --> 0:14:36.200
<v Speaker 1>was two thousand five, which I'm afraid to ask Dr

0:14:36.240 --> 0:14:38.440
<v Speaker 1>on you know how many thousands of pages? Was that

0:14:39.720 --> 0:14:42.440
<v Speaker 1>way too many? I want to go back even farther.

0:14:44.160 --> 0:14:48.880
<v Speaker 1>We had an amnesty program largely built around agricultural workers.

0:14:48.920 --> 0:14:51.560
<v Speaker 1>But what impact did that have? Is there any learning

0:14:51.600 --> 0:14:55.320
<v Speaker 1>experience there? There is? So under President Reagan, we had

0:14:55.360 --> 0:14:58.080
<v Speaker 1>a bill, or we had a law that granted a

0:14:58.160 --> 0:15:02.480
<v Speaker 1>paptist citizenship for many many undocumented immigrants in the United States,

0:15:02.760 --> 0:15:06.480
<v Speaker 1>and there were just over two million that were Mexicans um.

0:15:06.520 --> 0:15:10.560
<v Speaker 1>And what's quite interesting about that is many did uh

0:15:10.760 --> 0:15:13.320
<v Speaker 1>get a green card, did become part of our process,

0:15:13.320 --> 0:15:16.920
<v Speaker 1>but actually many fewer became U. S. Citizens. And I

0:15:16.960 --> 0:15:19.760
<v Speaker 1>think either side of the aisle would have fought, and

0:15:19.800 --> 0:15:21.760
<v Speaker 1>so we only had about a third of those people.

0:15:21.800 --> 0:15:25.000
<v Speaker 1>So now right, that's almost thirty years ago, only about

0:15:25.000 --> 0:15:27.320
<v Speaker 1>a third of those actually became U. S. Citizens. And

0:15:27.440 --> 0:15:30.720
<v Speaker 1>that does give some evidence for this idea that's out

0:15:30.720 --> 0:15:33.160
<v Speaker 1>there that Mexicans come here, they want to work, they

0:15:33.160 --> 0:15:35.200
<v Speaker 1>want to provide security for their family, and then they

0:15:35.200 --> 0:15:37.200
<v Speaker 1>want to go home when they've finished that part of

0:15:37.240 --> 0:15:39.800
<v Speaker 1>their career, and they provided some money back home. And

0:15:40.120 --> 0:15:42.440
<v Speaker 1>that was what played out back in six and in

0:15:42.480 --> 0:15:45.320
<v Speaker 1>the preceding years, and could again if we had another

0:15:45.520 --> 0:15:48.960
<v Speaker 1>comprehensive immigration reform that would give a pactic citizenship in

0:15:50.400 --> 0:15:54.360
<v Speaker 1>sixty six mile fence along the California coast from San

0:15:54.360 --> 0:15:57.720
<v Speaker 1>Diego to the Pacific Ocean. Well, we've had a series

0:15:57.760 --> 0:16:02.320
<v Speaker 1>of fences and another one in the last couple of years, Um, Shannon,

0:16:02.960 --> 0:16:06.680
<v Speaker 1>they don't seem to make much of a difference. This

0:16:06.840 --> 0:16:09.240
<v Speaker 1>isn't really the way to patrol the border. And as

0:16:09.360 --> 0:16:11.720
<v Speaker 1>Janet Napolitana when she was governor down there and then

0:16:11.720 --> 0:16:13.400
<v Speaker 1>she went on to be a head of Homeland Security,

0:16:13.800 --> 0:16:15.600
<v Speaker 1>she had a quipped that said, you know, show me

0:16:15.640 --> 0:16:17.480
<v Speaker 1>a fifty football and I'll show you a fifty one

0:16:17.480 --> 0:16:20.920
<v Speaker 1>f ladder. And so this isn't necessarily the way to

0:16:20.960 --> 0:16:24.000
<v Speaker 1>get the security that we want. Um, But we have

0:16:24.160 --> 0:16:26.560
<v Speaker 1>I said, we've invested a lot. We've invested in people,

0:16:26.560 --> 0:16:30.280
<v Speaker 1>we've invested in technology, and we have seen a decline

0:16:30.280 --> 0:16:33.000
<v Speaker 1>in the people coming over the border. Part of that economics,

0:16:33.040 --> 0:16:35.200
<v Speaker 1>but part of it is the security that's put put

0:16:35.240 --> 0:16:39.600
<v Speaker 1>in place over this last decade. Well, obviously this is

0:16:39.640 --> 0:16:43.960
<v Speaker 1>all in the fertile mind of one Republican candidate who

0:16:44.240 --> 0:16:49.360
<v Speaker 1>doesn't seem to understand how any of this works. But uh,

0:16:49.560 --> 0:16:53.560
<v Speaker 1>if if if he were elected and seems to be

0:16:53.600 --> 0:16:58.240
<v Speaker 1>a small chance of that UH and wanted to stop remittances,

0:16:59.240 --> 0:17:05.840
<v Speaker 1>would that be possible. It would be very difficult. Um.

0:17:05.880 --> 0:17:10.600
<v Speaker 1>These are individual transactions from private individuals to private individuals

0:17:10.920 --> 0:17:13.200
<v Speaker 1>in the other countries, so they don't really flow through

0:17:13.440 --> 0:17:16.920
<v Speaker 1>governments as such. Um it would be a huge hit

0:17:17.000 --> 0:17:20.480
<v Speaker 1>for companies like Western Union and others, but perhaps also

0:17:20.560 --> 0:17:23.520
<v Speaker 1>for banks because there'd be more regulation and trying to

0:17:23.560 --> 0:17:28.000
<v Speaker 1>decipher what is remittance versus what is a general transaction

0:17:28.080 --> 0:17:30.760
<v Speaker 1>that's going between these two countries. And we also have

0:17:30.840 --> 0:17:33.880
<v Speaker 1>to remember, over the last twenty plus years, the amount

0:17:34.000 --> 0:17:37.160
<v Speaker 1>of trade, the commerce the companies that work on both

0:17:37.200 --> 0:17:40.240
<v Speaker 1>sides of the border has exploded. There's over half a

0:17:40.359 --> 0:17:43.399
<v Speaker 1>trillion dollars worth of goods that moves back and forth

0:17:43.840 --> 0:17:45.840
<v Speaker 1>every year, and so there's a lot of money moving

0:17:45.840 --> 0:17:48.600
<v Speaker 1>back and forth to keep factories open on both sides

0:17:48.640 --> 0:17:50.760
<v Speaker 1>of the border. Social there's a lot of flows, and

0:17:50.760 --> 0:17:53.440
<v Speaker 1>you're trying to pull out a very few and see

0:17:53.480 --> 0:17:55.879
<v Speaker 1>which ones are happening between people who are undocument in

0:17:55.880 --> 0:17:58.920
<v Speaker 1>the United States, and and it's a very complicated process.

0:18:00.040 --> 0:18:02.960
<v Speaker 1>They have a sane discussion on this hugely emotional issue

0:18:03.000 --> 0:18:07.160
<v Speaker 1>with your expertise and deserve it a claim. If Shannon

0:18:07.200 --> 0:18:11.600
<v Speaker 1>O'Neill of that incredibly leftist New York City group CFR

0:18:12.160 --> 0:18:16.879
<v Speaker 1>parachuted into the Latin American Studies program of the University

0:18:16.880 --> 0:18:22.920
<v Speaker 1>of Arizona, Tucson, Arizona, what's the debate you perceive among

0:18:22.960 --> 0:18:27.720
<v Speaker 1>the Americans most invested in this border debate? What would

0:18:27.760 --> 0:18:31.280
<v Speaker 1>you what would we see or you see among the

0:18:31.320 --> 0:18:34.920
<v Speaker 1>people of Arizona. You know, I was down there speaking

0:18:35.000 --> 0:18:37.600
<v Speaker 1>just a couple of months ago, and what's really fascinating

0:18:37.720 --> 0:18:40.680
<v Speaker 1>to me is the debating Arizona seems to be moving

0:18:40.720 --> 0:18:43.200
<v Speaker 1>away from where it was a few years ago when

0:18:43.200 --> 0:18:46.680
<v Speaker 1>they passed a law to to go after anybody who

0:18:46.760 --> 0:18:51.320
<v Speaker 1>might possibly be undocumented, and really cracking down on that part.

0:18:51.640 --> 0:18:53.760
<v Speaker 1>And what you see the businesses, they're big ones, but

0:18:53.760 --> 0:18:56.320
<v Speaker 1>also a medium and small sized ones. They see their

0:18:56.359 --> 0:18:59.000
<v Speaker 1>future link to Mexico. Now when they look for consumers,

0:18:59.000 --> 0:19:01.800
<v Speaker 1>it's a small state, not a big population. When they

0:19:01.840 --> 0:19:04.239
<v Speaker 1>looked at who they could sell to, Mexico is at

0:19:04.280 --> 0:19:06.680
<v Speaker 1>the top of their list, right, There's lots of consumers

0:19:06.720 --> 0:19:09.159
<v Speaker 1>on the other side of that border. So I do

0:19:09.359 --> 0:19:11.840
<v Speaker 1>think even in states like Arizona, which became the poster

0:19:12.000 --> 0:19:14.960
<v Speaker 1>child for an anti American point of view. You're seeing

0:19:15.000 --> 0:19:18.080
<v Speaker 1>a huge shift there. They see the benefits of trade

0:19:18.119 --> 0:19:21.400
<v Speaker 1>with Mexico and the benefits of the back and forth growing.

0:19:22.840 --> 0:19:28.400
<v Speaker 1>Let's be realistic here and talk about what's likely to happen. Uh,

0:19:28.440 --> 0:19:34.280
<v Speaker 1>it is likely that Hillary Clinton will be elected president UM.

0:19:34.400 --> 0:19:39.000
<v Speaker 1>Where then does the US Mexico relationship go? Where are

0:19:39.040 --> 0:19:42.119
<v Speaker 1>we now and where does it go? Well? Ley Clinton

0:19:42.240 --> 0:19:44.320
<v Speaker 1>has spent a lot of time when she was Secretary

0:19:44.320 --> 0:19:47.800
<v Speaker 1>of State working with Mexico. Under her tenure, there was

0:19:47.840 --> 0:19:51.159
<v Speaker 1>an expansion and revamping of the Meriden Initiative, which is

0:19:51.200 --> 0:19:54.000
<v Speaker 1>the security cooperation that between the two countries begun under

0:19:54.000 --> 0:19:57.639
<v Speaker 1>President Bush. Um. She's spent a lot of time on

0:19:57.720 --> 0:20:00.000
<v Speaker 1>immigration issues. We've heard that a lot on her campaign

0:20:00.040 --> 0:20:03.000
<v Speaker 1>in the past, and obviously Mexicans and Mexican Americans are

0:20:03.000 --> 0:20:05.399
<v Speaker 1>a big part of that. So I think those two

0:20:05.440 --> 0:20:08.240
<v Speaker 1>things push forward. I mean, one of the big questions

0:20:08.440 --> 0:20:11.880
<v Speaker 1>is what happens on trade. This is obviously quite important

0:20:11.960 --> 0:20:15.400
<v Speaker 1>between our two nations. We see not just a lot

0:20:15.400 --> 0:20:17.639
<v Speaker 1>of back and forth, which I mentioned, but also really

0:20:17.960 --> 0:20:20.480
<v Speaker 1>the integration of companies where something is made in Mexico

0:20:20.520 --> 0:20:22.440
<v Speaker 1>something in the United States and has put together on

0:20:22.440 --> 0:20:24.480
<v Speaker 1>one side of the border or the other. So I

0:20:24.480 --> 0:20:27.800
<v Speaker 1>think there's a real question under a quipent administration what

0:20:27.880 --> 0:20:31.159
<v Speaker 1>happens to TPP, of which Mexico and many other countries

0:20:31.200 --> 0:20:33.760
<v Speaker 1>are apart um. But I do think we see a

0:20:33.840 --> 0:20:38.440
<v Speaker 1>pretty positive relationship. We see the continuation of Obama's deepening

0:20:38.880 --> 0:20:41.720
<v Speaker 1>of the relationship between the two countries and moving forward

0:20:41.760 --> 0:20:44.880
<v Speaker 1>on on many sides. One final question quickly, if we

0:20:45.000 --> 0:20:47.960
<v Speaker 1>could have mentioned Corl Scodiers the other day, is someone

0:20:48.000 --> 0:20:51.400
<v Speaker 1>maybe with a different view, former Secretary of Commerce within

0:20:51.440 --> 0:20:54.879
<v Speaker 1>the Republican Party. Where do these people go in the

0:20:54.920 --> 0:21:01.640
<v Speaker 1>debate after November? Where does the establishment Republican Latin American debate?

0:21:01.720 --> 0:21:05.399
<v Speaker 1>Where do they head after what we've observed and after

0:21:05.440 --> 0:21:08.280
<v Speaker 1>what we do to get to election? And I think

0:21:08.320 --> 0:21:11.040
<v Speaker 1>that's the big question for Republicans in general, where do

0:21:11.119 --> 0:21:14.800
<v Speaker 1>you head after election night depending on who becomes their

0:21:14.840 --> 0:21:18.280
<v Speaker 1>candidates the two leading ones today um and whether one

0:21:18.320 --> 0:21:22.280
<v Speaker 1>of those could possibly win. But there is my impression,

0:21:22.359 --> 0:21:24.800
<v Speaker 1>is a feeling that there will have to be a

0:21:24.880 --> 0:21:29.600
<v Speaker 1>bigger national conversation here about what the two parties want

0:21:29.640 --> 0:21:32.600
<v Speaker 1>to represent because overall, in in my take, three of

0:21:32.640 --> 0:21:35.760
<v Speaker 1>the five leading candidates are anti establishments figures. So obviously

0:21:35.760 --> 0:21:39.040
<v Speaker 1>I'm both side of the aisle. There are people who

0:21:39.080 --> 0:21:42.600
<v Speaker 1>feel are not being represented by the traditional party, Doctor Ornill,

0:21:42.640 --> 0:21:44.680
<v Speaker 1>thank you so much. Shannon O'Neill, and folks can't say

0:21:44.720 --> 0:21:49.160
<v Speaker 1>enough about her book on UH Mexico, Two Nations, UH

0:21:49.280 --> 0:21:53.240
<v Speaker 1>Indivisible Mexico and the United States. Just a superb one

0:21:53.320 --> 0:21:56.320
<v Speaker 1>volume read on all of Mexico. Michael, what a great

0:21:56.359 --> 0:22:01.640
<v Speaker 1>way to start the week, Daniel Jurgen, Shannon O'Neill, Phil Ler, Yeah,

0:22:01.760 --> 0:22:04.160
<v Speaker 1>I mean it's just been and Richard huss we don't

0:22:05.080 --> 0:22:06.639
<v Speaker 1>leave him aside. And it is the week of the

0:22:06.720 --> 0:22:09.920
<v Speaker 1>Queen's birthday. We will celebrate here. We'll talk a little

0:22:09.960 --> 0:22:12.520
<v Speaker 1>bit about it. We've got, of course economics this week.

0:22:12.640 --> 0:22:16.399
<v Speaker 1>I will go beneath the headline data on the housing economy.

0:22:16.440 --> 0:22:21.760
<v Speaker 1>We are produced by Kieren Juchanon ken Felly, our global

0:22:21.800 --> 0:22:23.879
<v Speaker 1>technical director. It's Bloomberg Surveillance