1 00:00:02,520 --> 00:00:05,280 Speaker 1: Welcome back to a Numbers Game podcast with Ryan Gardeski, 2 00:00:05,320 --> 00:00:07,640 Speaker 1: and I'm your host. Happy Monday. I hope you all 3 00:00:07,640 --> 00:00:10,920 Speaker 1: had a wonderful weekend. Right now, in Washington, d C. 4 00:00:11,080 --> 00:00:15,120 Speaker 1: Republicans and Democrats are very busy actively recruiting candidates for 5 00:00:15,160 --> 00:00:18,840 Speaker 1: the twenty twenty six US Senate election. Democrats have to 6 00:00:18,880 --> 00:00:22,400 Speaker 1: defend two Senate seats in states that Trump won Georgia 7 00:00:22,480 --> 00:00:24,680 Speaker 1: and Michigan, as well as a handful of states that 8 00:00:24,720 --> 00:00:28,760 Speaker 1: we're closer than expected in places like New Hampshire, Minnesota, 9 00:00:28,880 --> 00:00:32,720 Speaker 1: New Mexico, Virginia, and New Jersey. Republicans, on the other hand, 10 00:00:32,920 --> 00:00:36,360 Speaker 1: have to only defend one incumbent in a blue state. 11 00:00:36,400 --> 00:00:39,599 Speaker 1: That's Susan Collins and Maine. The only other Republican even 12 00:00:39,680 --> 00:00:42,559 Speaker 1: running in a swing state is Tom Tillis North Carolina. 13 00:00:42,600 --> 00:00:46,040 Speaker 1: And remember that's the state that Trump won three times. 14 00:00:46,600 --> 00:00:49,600 Speaker 1: Every other state where Democrats have to try to compete 15 00:00:49,600 --> 00:00:53,640 Speaker 1: in is basically a long shot. Iowa, Florida, and Texas. 16 00:00:54,280 --> 00:00:57,200 Speaker 1: Democrats have a very slim road to the majority in 17 00:00:57,240 --> 00:01:00,160 Speaker 1: the Senate. And it's not just this year. See and 18 00:01:00,200 --> 00:01:01,800 Speaker 1: I want to go back in history for a second. 19 00:01:01,880 --> 00:01:03,760 Speaker 1: I want to show you how difficult it is for 20 00:01:04,000 --> 00:01:09,640 Speaker 1: Democrats to win majorities and large majorities. In twenty twenty two, 21 00:01:09,840 --> 00:01:14,240 Speaker 1: Republicans really screwed up and they fell a little short. 22 00:01:14,240 --> 00:01:17,440 Speaker 1: In twenty twenty four. They nominated bad candidates, They were 23 00:01:17,480 --> 00:01:20,400 Speaker 1: caught flat foot and an abortion, They were outspent and outgunned, 24 00:01:20,680 --> 00:01:22,880 Speaker 1: and voters in Arizona fell in love with the crazy 25 00:01:22,880 --> 00:01:25,800 Speaker 1: con artists named Carry Lake two too many times. In 26 00:01:25,840 --> 00:01:30,400 Speaker 1: twenty twenty two, Republicans lost Senate seats in five competitive races, 27 00:01:30,560 --> 00:01:33,720 Speaker 1: six if you count the special election in Georgia. Had 28 00:01:33,760 --> 00:01:36,280 Speaker 1: they won those races, it would have taken the Republican 29 00:01:36,400 --> 00:01:39,960 Speaker 1: up to fifty five Senate seats. Now, in twenty twenty four, 30 00:01:40,360 --> 00:01:43,280 Speaker 1: Republicans did do better. They happened to win four seats, 31 00:01:43,560 --> 00:01:46,080 Speaker 1: but they came within just a few points of picking 32 00:01:46,160 --> 00:01:50,880 Speaker 1: up four more in states that Trump won Nevada, Arizona, Wisconsin, 33 00:01:51,000 --> 00:01:55,840 Speaker 1: and Michigan. Had they won those four plus the five 34 00:01:56,240 --> 00:01:58,120 Speaker 1: that they should have won in twenty twenty two in 35 00:01:58,160 --> 00:02:01,120 Speaker 1: a competitive year for Republicans, it would have given them 36 00:02:01,120 --> 00:02:04,960 Speaker 1: a filler buster proof majority, something that they have not had. 37 00:02:05,000 --> 00:02:09,560 Speaker 1: Republicans have not had a fillbustproof majority since nineteen twenty one. 38 00:02:10,720 --> 00:02:13,840 Speaker 1: Those are all states that are within reach. Those are 39 00:02:13,880 --> 00:02:17,200 Speaker 1: all states that Republicans compete in for the presidency. These 40 00:02:17,240 --> 00:02:19,960 Speaker 1: aren't long shot elections that they'd have to win, not 41 00:02:20,080 --> 00:02:22,079 Speaker 1: like when they won the Senate seat in Massachusetts in 42 00:02:22,120 --> 00:02:24,440 Speaker 1: two thousand and nine, for the Senate states in Illinois 43 00:02:24,480 --> 00:02:27,440 Speaker 1: or Colorado in twenty ten. Now it's been one hundred 44 00:02:27,480 --> 00:02:31,200 Speaker 1: and four years since Republicans won a Senate supermajority. That's 45 00:02:31,240 --> 00:02:35,320 Speaker 1: not the case for Democrats. Since nineteen twenty one, Democrats 46 00:02:35,320 --> 00:02:38,040 Speaker 1: have held the super majority in the Senate fifteen times 47 00:02:38,120 --> 00:02:41,080 Speaker 1: or thirty years. Thirty years out of one hundred a 48 00:02:41,160 --> 00:02:43,600 Speaker 1: third has not only had a Democrat majority, but a 49 00:02:43,639 --> 00:02:47,600 Speaker 1: Democrat super majority. The Senate has essentially always been a 50 00:02:47,639 --> 00:02:51,400 Speaker 1: Democrat institution because they were able to win with a 51 00:02:51,600 --> 00:02:54,920 Speaker 1: grand coalition of Democrats. They had Prairie populace, they had 52 00:02:54,960 --> 00:02:58,080 Speaker 1: Southern Conservatives, they had New Deal Democrats in the north West, East, 53 00:02:58,360 --> 00:03:01,840 Speaker 1: Progressives in the Northwest and in the Midwest. But as 54 00:03:01,880 --> 00:03:06,320 Speaker 1: Democrats and Republicans, to be fair, both became more ideologically rigid, 55 00:03:06,600 --> 00:03:09,000 Speaker 1: they were electoral map in the Senate and the White 56 00:03:09,040 --> 00:03:12,280 Speaker 1: House changed, and for Democrats it became smaller and smaller. 57 00:03:12,760 --> 00:03:15,200 Speaker 1: In twenty twenty four, it was the very first time 58 00:03:15,240 --> 00:03:19,040 Speaker 1: in one hundred years that Republicans controlled every Senate seat 59 00:03:19,280 --> 00:03:22,560 Speaker 1: in a state where the Republican presidential nominee won by 60 00:03:22,639 --> 00:03:25,760 Speaker 1: double digits. That's twenty four states, or in forty eight 61 00:03:25,760 --> 00:03:28,800 Speaker 1: Senate seats. The other five that Republicans hold four in 62 00:03:28,840 --> 00:03:31,960 Speaker 1: swing seats seats, one in Pennsylvania, one in Wisconsin, two 63 00:03:32,000 --> 00:03:34,600 Speaker 1: in North Carolina, and won the blue state of Maine 64 00:03:34,600 --> 00:03:37,800 Speaker 1: with Susan Collins. But as long as Republicans hold on 65 00:03:37,840 --> 00:03:40,320 Speaker 1: to every state that Trump won by double digits, it 66 00:03:40,360 --> 00:03:43,960 Speaker 1: means that their basement number is forty eight. For a 67 00:03:44,040 --> 00:03:48,160 Speaker 1: comparison to Democrats, if they just hold on to every 68 00:03:48,240 --> 00:03:51,240 Speaker 1: Senate seat in the state that Harris won by double digits, 69 00:03:51,360 --> 00:03:55,160 Speaker 1: they only have twenty six. That's why Democrats are demanding 70 00:03:55,200 --> 00:03:57,960 Speaker 1: they massively reformed the Senate because they can no longer 71 00:03:58,240 --> 00:04:01,000 Speaker 1: use the same winning playbook they've had for the last century. 72 00:04:01,440 --> 00:04:04,240 Speaker 1: Think about it, not many Democrats were very upset that 73 00:04:04,320 --> 00:04:07,280 Speaker 1: North and South Dakota had as many senators as California 74 00:04:07,600 --> 00:04:11,000 Speaker 1: when most of those senators from the Dakotas were Democrats, 75 00:04:11,440 --> 00:04:13,920 Speaker 1: which Democrats by the way controlled most of the US 76 00:04:13,960 --> 00:04:16,400 Speaker 1: Senate seats in the Dakotas from nineteen eighty eight to 77 00:04:16,440 --> 00:04:21,120 Speaker 1: twenty ten. Democrats are also facing a similar structure to 78 00:04:21,160 --> 00:04:24,440 Speaker 1: the electoral College in twenty thirty two going into the 79 00:04:24,440 --> 00:04:30,200 Speaker 1: future looking forward. Even before COVID Democrats were seeing exodus 80 00:04:30,200 --> 00:04:34,279 Speaker 1: from blue states, but the pandemic exacerbated those trends substantially. 81 00:04:34,800 --> 00:04:38,080 Speaker 1: The Brennan Center, which is a fairly left wing organizational, 82 00:04:38,120 --> 00:04:40,400 Speaker 1: oother nonpartisan, but they have a left leaning to them. 83 00:04:40,800 --> 00:04:43,400 Speaker 1: They estimate that states that voted for Kamala Harris are 84 00:04:43,400 --> 00:04:47,560 Speaker 1: set to lose ten electoral College seats, while Republicans states 85 00:04:47,600 --> 00:04:50,040 Speaker 1: regarded states they voted for Trump are set to gain ten. 86 00:04:50,760 --> 00:04:53,479 Speaker 1: Most of those are concentrated in the South. States like 87 00:04:53,560 --> 00:04:56,160 Speaker 1: Texas and Florida are going to gain four each, while 88 00:04:56,200 --> 00:04:58,360 Speaker 1: California and New York are going to lose six, four 89 00:04:58,400 --> 00:05:01,719 Speaker 1: from California and two from now New York. Think of this. 90 00:05:02,279 --> 00:05:08,760 Speaker 1: Had Harris won all the Blue Wall states Minnesota, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, 91 00:05:08,920 --> 00:05:10,400 Speaker 1: she did when Minnesota, don't know why I said that, 92 00:05:10,440 --> 00:05:14,200 Speaker 1: but Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania, she would have won the presidency. 93 00:05:14,240 --> 00:05:16,440 Speaker 1: Two hundred and seventy to two hundred and sixty eight 94 00:05:16,480 --> 00:05:21,919 Speaker 1: electoral College votes. Now take away the twelve electoral college votes, 95 00:05:22,080 --> 00:05:24,280 Speaker 1: ten that the Democrat states are losing, and the two 96 00:05:24,320 --> 00:05:26,640 Speaker 1: that the Midwestern states that are swing states Pennsylvania and 97 00:05:26,680 --> 00:05:29,680 Speaker 1: Wisconsin are said to lose, and even had she won 98 00:05:29,720 --> 00:05:32,840 Speaker 1: the Blue Wall, she would have still lost the presidency 99 00:05:32,920 --> 00:05:35,440 Speaker 1: two hundred and eighty seats to electoral College votes to 100 00:05:35,440 --> 00:05:39,080 Speaker 1: two hundred and fifty eight. That's with the entire Blue 101 00:05:39,080 --> 00:05:42,240 Speaker 1: Wall enacted. That means for the next decade, for the 102 00:05:42,279 --> 00:05:46,320 Speaker 1: twenty thirty decade, Democrats have to recapture the White House 103 00:05:46,360 --> 00:05:50,200 Speaker 1: by basically winning the entire Blue Wall plus Georgia and Nevada. 104 00:05:50,800 --> 00:05:54,000 Speaker 1: It becomes very very difficult. Maybe that will happen, but 105 00:05:54,080 --> 00:05:57,360 Speaker 1: it becomes much harder where essentially they can't rest in 106 00:05:57,360 --> 00:06:04,560 Speaker 1: their laurels institutional support among these historic blue states. And 107 00:06:04,600 --> 00:06:09,320 Speaker 1: it means unless the sun belts switches in any capacity, 108 00:06:09,320 --> 00:06:11,760 Speaker 1: which it's moving to the right. With the exception of Georgia, 109 00:06:11,880 --> 00:06:15,960 Speaker 1: everything kind of relies on Georgia. For Democrats, there's really 110 00:06:15,960 --> 00:06:18,560 Speaker 1: no path to the White House, and there's certainly no 111 00:06:18,680 --> 00:06:21,640 Speaker 1: path to a super majority in the Senate. The coalition 112 00:06:21,720 --> 00:06:25,520 Speaker 1: that every Democrat has basically count on since FDR all 113 00:06:25,560 --> 00:06:28,240 Speaker 1: the way to Obama and even Joe Biden to a 114 00:06:28,279 --> 00:06:33,040 Speaker 1: certain extent, is gone. And that speaks volumes of trouble 115 00:06:33,040 --> 00:06:36,480 Speaker 1: for the Democratic Party, especially now as they recruit to 116 00:06:36,640 --> 00:06:39,280 Speaker 1: claw back any chance that they have at winning the 117 00:06:39,360 --> 00:06:41,719 Speaker 1: US Senate going forward. We have a writer on the 118 00:06:41,720 --> 00:06:43,640 Speaker 1: show coming up to who talks about and writes about 119 00:06:43,640 --> 00:06:46,040 Speaker 1: how the Democrats are trying to claw back their majority 120 00:06:46,040 --> 00:06:48,200 Speaker 1: in the US Senate if they have a chance, and 121 00:06:48,320 --> 00:06:51,000 Speaker 1: what would it take for Republicans to finally break through 122 00:06:51,160 --> 00:06:53,599 Speaker 1: and win a supermajority for the first time in over 123 00:06:53,640 --> 00:06:59,320 Speaker 1: a century. Coming up next with me this week is 124 00:06:59,440 --> 00:07:02,479 Speaker 1: Arman Thomas. He is a writer for a great website 125 00:07:02,480 --> 00:07:05,640 Speaker 1: called split ticket dot org, a split hyphen ticket dot 126 00:07:05,720 --> 00:07:08,599 Speaker 1: org great website on electoral politics. They had a super 127 00:07:08,640 --> 00:07:11,840 Speaker 1: interesting article called the real reason Democrats can't compete for 128 00:07:11,920 --> 00:07:14,640 Speaker 1: sixty Senate seats. Arman, thank you for being here. 129 00:07:15,040 --> 00:07:17,080 Speaker 2: Thank you, Ryan, it's a pleasure to be on the 130 00:07:17,080 --> 00:07:17,960 Speaker 2: podcast with you. 131 00:07:18,360 --> 00:07:20,440 Speaker 1: So armand now you look like a fairly young guy. 132 00:07:20,480 --> 00:07:23,960 Speaker 1: When I was growing up, Democrats would regularly have seats 133 00:07:23,960 --> 00:07:29,240 Speaker 1: in the Dakota's West Virginia. Obviously there were prairie, populous 134 00:07:29,320 --> 00:07:33,000 Speaker 1: and Midwestern Democrats that would would be winning in states 135 00:07:33,040 --> 00:07:35,440 Speaker 1: that went for Ronald Reagan and for George W. Bush. 136 00:07:35,520 --> 00:07:38,160 Speaker 1: That doesn't happen with the exception of Susan Collins, right. 137 00:07:38,680 --> 00:07:42,680 Speaker 1: Tell us why Democrats can't compete in places they used 138 00:07:42,720 --> 00:07:43,280 Speaker 1: to anymore. 139 00:07:44,520 --> 00:07:47,360 Speaker 2: Well, I think there's a couple of factors. The first 140 00:07:47,640 --> 00:07:52,520 Speaker 2: is simply the ideological positioning of the Democratic Party. Ever 141 00:07:52,560 --> 00:07:57,840 Speaker 2: since the you know, the decline of the New Deal 142 00:07:57,920 --> 00:08:02,000 Speaker 2: Coalition in you know, the sixty seventies, eighties, you know, 143 00:08:02,120 --> 00:08:05,040 Speaker 2: the Democrats have been searching for a solution for who 144 00:08:05,080 --> 00:08:07,720 Speaker 2: is someone who can bring together a winning you know, 145 00:08:08,520 --> 00:08:12,000 Speaker 2: array of voters. And in the eighties Democrats got the 146 00:08:12,040 --> 00:08:15,400 Speaker 2: clocks cleaned, you know, every election that happened. And in 147 00:08:15,440 --> 00:08:19,400 Speaker 2: the nineteen nineties, you know, Bill Clinton and the Democratic 148 00:08:19,480 --> 00:08:23,200 Speaker 2: Legislative Council made the decision to kind of triangulate and 149 00:08:23,240 --> 00:08:28,840 Speaker 2: moderate and focus on winning you know, socially liberal suburbanites 150 00:08:28,880 --> 00:08:33,160 Speaker 2: and you know, educated white people, and you know, you 151 00:08:33,280 --> 00:08:36,840 Speaker 2: still saw enough of that more conservative rural, you know, 152 00:08:37,160 --> 00:08:39,520 Speaker 2: Southern Dixie heritage that we used to be in the 153 00:08:39,559 --> 00:08:45,280 Speaker 2: Democratic Party. Because Bill Clinton was a Southerner from Hope, Arkansas. However, 154 00:08:45,400 --> 00:08:48,560 Speaker 2: all of this really started to take its current shape 155 00:08:49,000 --> 00:08:51,360 Speaker 2: in two thousand when Al Gore was the nominee. Right, 156 00:08:51,400 --> 00:08:54,120 Speaker 2: he was a Senator from Tennessee. He was Clinton's vice president, 157 00:08:54,640 --> 00:08:57,880 Speaker 2: but he very much, you know, cast off a lot 158 00:08:57,880 --> 00:09:01,000 Speaker 2: of his old southern heritage and his record that he 159 00:09:01,080 --> 00:09:05,760 Speaker 2: ran on in favor of you know, big government, you know, 160 00:09:05,960 --> 00:09:10,800 Speaker 2: Northeastern style liberalism. And that's kind of the where the 161 00:09:10,840 --> 00:09:14,040 Speaker 2: party has been for the past twenty odd years. 162 00:09:14,160 --> 00:09:14,360 Speaker 1: Right. 163 00:09:14,600 --> 00:09:17,120 Speaker 2: And you know, West Virginia, which is a stal ward 164 00:09:17,160 --> 00:09:20,920 Speaker 2: of the Democratic Party, voted against Gore in two thousand. 165 00:09:21,200 --> 00:09:24,320 Speaker 2: You know, if he didn't you know, take policies that 166 00:09:24,400 --> 00:09:27,880 Speaker 2: alienated his voters, he would have been president. And you know, 167 00:09:28,040 --> 00:09:32,800 Speaker 2: every at every juncture the party has had an opportunity 168 00:09:32,840 --> 00:09:36,600 Speaker 2: to make decisions about what ideology it wants. The side 169 00:09:36,640 --> 00:09:41,920 Speaker 2: that has won out has always been the social cultural liberalism, 170 00:09:42,160 --> 00:09:44,280 Speaker 2: you know, based in race and identity. 171 00:09:44,640 --> 00:09:44,840 Speaker 1: Right. 172 00:09:45,320 --> 00:09:48,800 Speaker 2: Obama beat Hillary in two thousand and eight, Hillary beat 173 00:09:48,880 --> 00:09:53,920 Speaker 2: Bernie in twentyeen, Right. And so what that leads to 174 00:09:54,120 --> 00:09:57,960 Speaker 2: is just, you know, this is where the party is, 175 00:09:58,000 --> 00:10:01,240 Speaker 2: and people who have voted Democratic, their whole lives. They 176 00:10:01,280 --> 00:10:04,480 Speaker 2: were Democrats because it stood for one thing, right, whether 177 00:10:04,600 --> 00:10:07,880 Speaker 2: that's faith, a family and a country, or the unions. 178 00:10:08,040 --> 00:10:11,320 Speaker 2: It doesn't stand for that anymore, and you know, so 179 00:10:11,440 --> 00:10:13,840 Speaker 2: this kind of sorting is bound to happen. I think 180 00:10:13,880 --> 00:10:17,600 Speaker 2: related to it is also the rise of you know, 181 00:10:17,800 --> 00:10:21,520 Speaker 2: people just being more politically aware of what, you know, 182 00:10:21,679 --> 00:10:24,760 Speaker 2: issues are actually going on. Right in the eighties, it 183 00:10:24,800 --> 00:10:27,040 Speaker 2: was only really in the nineties that the top radio 184 00:10:27,480 --> 00:10:30,240 Speaker 2: and cable news and Fox and all of this, you know, 185 00:10:30,720 --> 00:10:33,199 Speaker 2: all of these things to keep people politically plugged in 186 00:10:33,520 --> 00:10:36,320 Speaker 2: really became a huge thing, right, And in the nineteen 187 00:10:36,400 --> 00:10:39,800 Speaker 2: nineties you saw the first wave of you know, working 188 00:10:39,840 --> 00:10:42,240 Speaker 2: class you know, for lack of a better word, non 189 00:10:42,360 --> 00:10:46,559 Speaker 2: cosmopolitan Democrats fall right in the South, in the interior West. 190 00:10:47,320 --> 00:10:49,760 Speaker 2: You fast forward to twenty ten, you see a lot 191 00:10:49,800 --> 00:10:52,079 Speaker 2: more of that happen. And now especially you're seeing a 192 00:10:52,120 --> 00:10:55,840 Speaker 2: lot of those same shifts happen with non white Americans too, 193 00:10:57,679 --> 00:10:59,959 Speaker 2: And so I think it's just a combination of people 194 00:11:00,040 --> 00:11:02,920 Speaker 2: becoming more aware of what the parties actually stand for, 195 00:11:03,120 --> 00:11:05,720 Speaker 2: right because in the old days you could vote liberally, 196 00:11:05,800 --> 00:11:07,439 Speaker 2: but because there was a lack you know, there was 197 00:11:07,480 --> 00:11:10,640 Speaker 2: an information gap. People didn't know about it as much 198 00:11:10,679 --> 00:11:13,160 Speaker 2: because people don't pay as much attention. 199 00:11:13,440 --> 00:11:16,280 Speaker 1: Well, there also used to be more. There used to 200 00:11:16,320 --> 00:11:21,040 Speaker 1: be Democrats that really fit the uniform of their state, right, Yeah, 201 00:11:21,280 --> 00:11:24,520 Speaker 1: and in a lot of ways that is rare now. 202 00:11:25,080 --> 00:11:26,760 Speaker 2: Yeah, And so that's that's what I'm going to get 203 00:11:26,760 --> 00:11:30,520 Speaker 2: into as well, which is that, you know, we talked 204 00:11:30,559 --> 00:11:34,040 Speaker 2: about the choices that the parties have made ideologically, We've 205 00:11:34,080 --> 00:11:36,720 Speaker 2: talked about the fact that people are just more aware 206 00:11:36,760 --> 00:11:41,440 Speaker 2: of what's going on. Right. You know, people like Ken 207 00:11:41,559 --> 00:11:44,400 Speaker 2: Conrad and Byron Dorgan, who were senators from the Dakotas, 208 00:11:44,760 --> 00:11:48,040 Speaker 2: we're not that conservative, you know, relative that, I mean, 209 00:11:48,080 --> 00:11:51,520 Speaker 2: they were more conservative, but not that conservative. It was 210 00:11:51,559 --> 00:11:55,040 Speaker 2: still well to the left of the Median Republican on 211 00:11:55,240 --> 00:11:57,840 Speaker 2: a lot of issues. It just matters now that a 212 00:11:57,880 --> 00:12:00,960 Speaker 2: lot of people realized, Hey, I can actually see that 213 00:12:01,120 --> 00:12:04,600 Speaker 2: this Democrat, even if he's a North Dakota Democrat, is 214 00:12:04,679 --> 00:12:08,200 Speaker 2: liberal and I don't like that liberalism. And then the 215 00:12:08,280 --> 00:12:12,840 Speaker 2: third thing is right with respect to education. Right up 216 00:12:12,880 --> 00:12:16,720 Speaker 2: until about twenty twenty, the divide was very much urban 217 00:12:16,840 --> 00:12:20,200 Speaker 2: versus rural, white versus non white. Right, that was a 218 00:12:20,280 --> 00:12:23,920 Speaker 2: pretty useful heuristic for understanding where the parties were going. 219 00:12:24,720 --> 00:12:27,400 Speaker 2: And it's why up until about twenty twenty, Democrats had 220 00:12:27,440 --> 00:12:31,360 Speaker 2: a lot of hope for places like Florida, for places 221 00:12:31,400 --> 00:12:35,679 Speaker 2: like Texas, you know, for you know, even the idea 222 00:12:35,720 --> 00:12:38,840 Speaker 2: that you know, the rising tide of diversity was going 223 00:12:38,920 --> 00:12:41,200 Speaker 2: to lift them up and you know, kind of cause 224 00:12:41,400 --> 00:12:43,640 Speaker 2: Republicans to go extinct in their current. 225 00:12:43,920 --> 00:12:45,720 Speaker 1: There was the Obama coalition. 226 00:12:45,720 --> 00:12:50,360 Speaker 2: Right and well, now again because now what we're seeing 227 00:12:50,400 --> 00:12:53,439 Speaker 2: is the choices that Democrats have made coalitionally have been 228 00:12:53,960 --> 00:13:00,719 Speaker 2: to prioritize college educated white Democrats you know, over everyone else. Right, 229 00:13:00,800 --> 00:13:03,600 Speaker 2: that that's the big cleavage and democratic politics today. You're 230 00:13:03,600 --> 00:13:05,640 Speaker 2: seeing it a play out in the New York mayoral race 231 00:13:05,679 --> 00:13:09,000 Speaker 2: as well. You know, that's why you're seeing the coalitions 232 00:13:09,040 --> 00:13:11,120 Speaker 2: that you saw now. Right, If you went back to 233 00:13:11,160 --> 00:13:15,880 Speaker 2: twenty twelve or twenty sixteen and told someone, hey, you know, 234 00:13:16,000 --> 00:13:18,600 Speaker 2: Texas is going to go, you know, shift, you know, 235 00:13:18,679 --> 00:13:21,920 Speaker 2: eight points to the right while Ohio basically barely budgets 236 00:13:21,960 --> 00:13:24,880 Speaker 2: relative to the national environment, you'd be told, you know, 237 00:13:25,559 --> 00:13:26,360 Speaker 2: everyone would. 238 00:13:26,120 --> 00:13:28,040 Speaker 1: Think you're crazy. 239 00:13:28,240 --> 00:13:31,120 Speaker 2: Now, when you talk about Democrats who fit their state, 240 00:13:32,000 --> 00:13:35,080 Speaker 2: that was a lot more common, right, and I think 241 00:13:35,160 --> 00:13:39,000 Speaker 2: that has to do with, you know, primarily point two 242 00:13:39,080 --> 00:13:41,720 Speaker 2: of what I talked about with respect to the awareness piece. 243 00:13:41,840 --> 00:13:46,960 Speaker 2: Right people, activists, the groups, as you know everybody on 244 00:13:47,000 --> 00:13:50,240 Speaker 2: Twitter likes to talk about, they have a lot more 245 00:13:50,440 --> 00:13:56,800 Speaker 2: influenced in terms of shaping a national discourse. Right, A 246 00:13:56,880 --> 00:14:00,000 Speaker 2: Democrat from Alabama in the nineteen eighties or the ninety 247 00:14:00,240 --> 00:14:06,280 Speaker 2: nineties could realistically get away with, you know, being pro life, 248 00:14:06,520 --> 00:14:10,920 Speaker 2: pro gun, you know, anti abortion, anti gay, I mean, 249 00:14:11,040 --> 00:14:14,280 Speaker 2: transgender stuff was not really a thing back then as 250 00:14:14,320 --> 00:14:17,320 Speaker 2: a political issue. But you would assume that if it 251 00:14:17,520 --> 00:14:21,680 Speaker 2: was Alabama, Democrats that could win statewide would not support 252 00:14:21,720 --> 00:14:27,160 Speaker 2: that in any meaningful way. However, it's a combination of 253 00:14:27,200 --> 00:14:32,320 Speaker 2: the fact that the Democratic Party's organizing muscle is often 254 00:14:32,480 --> 00:14:36,760 Speaker 2: rented out to ideologically captured groups that do it, and 255 00:14:36,760 --> 00:14:38,840 Speaker 2: so they have an incentive in making sure that what 256 00:14:38,920 --> 00:14:40,320 Speaker 2: they want is featured. 257 00:14:40,480 --> 00:14:43,080 Speaker 1: Right, Yeah, they're not Harman. Can I can I ask 258 00:14:43,120 --> 00:14:45,600 Speaker 1: you one thing about that is you write you guys 259 00:14:45,600 --> 00:14:48,760 Speaker 1: write this on split ticket dot org. Polarization has caused 260 00:14:48,800 --> 00:14:52,560 Speaker 1: the ban of plausible outcomes to shrink for any given race. 261 00:14:52,680 --> 00:14:56,400 Speaker 1: Fourteen of the fifteen elections with candidates effects of twenty 262 00:14:56,400 --> 00:14:59,920 Speaker 1: plus points. Those are people who outran their party. Tw 263 00:15:00,200 --> 00:15:03,240 Speaker 1: points happened in twenty sixteen and twenty eighteen, and the 264 00:15:03,360 --> 00:15:06,960 Speaker 1: remaining one happened in twenty twenty. Since then, no election 265 00:15:07,080 --> 00:15:11,280 Speaker 1: is seen a candidate quality yield a twenty point electoral effect. 266 00:15:11,400 --> 00:15:15,080 Speaker 1: And basically, what you guys say is that candidate quality, 267 00:15:15,400 --> 00:15:18,480 Speaker 1: a candidate who really matched their state really didn't matter 268 00:15:18,560 --> 00:15:22,600 Speaker 1: where you could outrun the presidential candidate by twenty points. 269 00:15:23,040 --> 00:15:26,480 Speaker 1: You guys were in twenty sixteen that there were fifty 270 00:15:26,600 --> 00:15:28,720 Speaker 1: nine candidates. I'm guessing this is house on cent fifty 271 00:15:28,800 --> 00:15:33,480 Speaker 1: nine candidates that outran their They outran their party's presidentially 272 00:15:33,720 --> 00:15:35,840 Speaker 1: by fifty nine, fifty or fifty nine by ten points. 273 00:15:36,280 --> 00:15:39,560 Speaker 2: Not the presidential lean, but the expected result because oh, sorry, 274 00:15:39,600 --> 00:15:42,880 Speaker 2: expect the result. Placement score accounts for down ballot lag. 275 00:15:43,200 --> 00:15:46,160 Speaker 1: Okay, my missing fifty nine out round expected results by 276 00:15:46,200 --> 00:15:49,480 Speaker 1: ten points, twenty four by fifteen points, and eight by 277 00:15:49,520 --> 00:15:52,520 Speaker 1: twenty points. By twenty twenty four, that number had shrunk 278 00:15:52,520 --> 00:15:55,880 Speaker 1: from fifty nine to thirteen from for ten points above 279 00:15:56,200 --> 00:15:59,520 Speaker 1: twenty four to three by fifteen points, and eight to 280 00:15:59,640 --> 00:16:06,040 Speaker 1: zero for twenty points. Does counter quality really matter at all, so, I. 281 00:16:05,920 --> 00:16:08,680 Speaker 2: Think it absolutely does. I think there's two reasons why 282 00:16:08,720 --> 00:16:13,520 Speaker 2: this decline has happened. The first is just the nationalization 283 00:16:13,800 --> 00:16:16,360 Speaker 2: of everything, right in the age of the Internet, in 284 00:16:16,400 --> 00:16:21,560 Speaker 2: the age of social media, right to more extent, you know, 285 00:16:21,680 --> 00:16:23,920 Speaker 2: to a greater extent for the Democrats, but even for 286 00:16:24,000 --> 00:16:28,200 Speaker 2: Republicans too as well. You can't really run as independent 287 00:16:28,240 --> 00:16:32,400 Speaker 2: of a campaign anymore because everybody has the Internet. You know, 288 00:16:32,480 --> 00:16:34,680 Speaker 2: if you're a Democrat running with a D next to 289 00:16:34,680 --> 00:16:37,720 Speaker 2: your name and you're trying to flip a seat in 290 00:16:38,000 --> 00:16:41,120 Speaker 2: you know, I don't know Wyoming you're gonna have, You're 291 00:16:41,120 --> 00:16:43,880 Speaker 2: gonna still be tired with the same brush as the 292 00:16:43,920 --> 00:16:48,880 Speaker 2: insurrection rioters in Los Angeles right now. You know, I 293 00:16:48,920 --> 00:16:50,960 Speaker 2: don't even know if the Democrats or not, but everyone 294 00:16:51,000 --> 00:16:54,400 Speaker 2: is associating them with the Democratic Party, right, And the 295 00:16:54,440 --> 00:16:58,680 Speaker 2: same is true for Republicans, right because look at someone 296 00:16:58,760 --> 00:17:03,960 Speaker 2: like Larry Hogan, objectively a very very qualified public servant 297 00:17:03,960 --> 00:17:08,880 Speaker 2: who's won elections in Maryland before, but people associate him 298 00:17:09,440 --> 00:17:13,400 Speaker 2: with Mitch McConnell and Ted Cruz and other Republicans, and 299 00:17:13,480 --> 00:17:15,920 Speaker 2: the median voter in Maryland has died in the world, 300 00:17:15,920 --> 00:17:19,520 Speaker 2: liberal Democrat and even if they liked his low tax policy, 301 00:17:19,600 --> 00:17:22,720 Speaker 2: they're just not going to vote for someone who will 302 00:17:22,800 --> 00:17:23,720 Speaker 2: vote for Republicans. 303 00:17:23,800 --> 00:17:27,320 Speaker 1: He did very well, I mean he outperformed substantially, so, right. 304 00:17:27,200 --> 00:17:31,880 Speaker 2: He still was a great candidate. The problem is if 305 00:17:31,880 --> 00:17:35,200 Speaker 2: he ran in two thousand, he probably would have won 306 00:17:35,240 --> 00:17:39,600 Speaker 2: the election because polarization was just not as vague as so. 307 00:17:39,640 --> 00:17:41,960 Speaker 2: That's the first thing, right, It is just people are 308 00:17:41,960 --> 00:17:45,080 Speaker 2: more aware of what ideology actually means, and they're much 309 00:17:45,240 --> 00:17:48,040 Speaker 2: more able to connect that to whether or not that 310 00:17:48,080 --> 00:17:50,600 Speaker 2: lines up or goes against their own values. That's the first. 311 00:17:50,920 --> 00:17:54,199 Speaker 2: The second is that because of the incentive structure for 312 00:17:54,320 --> 00:17:57,080 Speaker 2: the parties and who's going to fund them, the types 313 00:17:57,119 --> 00:18:00,520 Speaker 2: of people who would be able to generate those kinds 314 00:18:00,560 --> 00:18:05,920 Speaker 2: of overperformances are less likely to actually be drawn to run. Right, 315 00:18:06,200 --> 00:18:08,080 Speaker 2: I'll start with the Republicans. Right, If you look in 316 00:18:08,160 --> 00:18:13,959 Speaker 2: twenty sixteen on the massive overperformance side, right, it was 317 00:18:14,000 --> 00:18:18,040 Speaker 2: you know John Katko, Tom Price, you know Bob Dold. Right, 318 00:18:18,119 --> 00:18:22,000 Speaker 2: these are all very moderate Republicans whose whole shtick was, 319 00:18:22,640 --> 00:18:27,359 Speaker 2: you know, I am a Republican, but I am you know, independent, 320 00:18:27,400 --> 00:18:29,199 Speaker 2: and I have my own brand which is just you know, 321 00:18:29,320 --> 00:18:32,800 Speaker 2: I am not all about doing whatever Donald Trump wants, right, 322 00:18:33,119 --> 00:18:35,360 Speaker 2: you like it or not. That's what the GOP is 323 00:18:35,359 --> 00:18:38,359 Speaker 2: is whatever Donald Trump wants. This is what everyone is 324 00:18:38,400 --> 00:18:42,840 Speaker 2: going to support. Right. The only Republican today who really 325 00:18:42,880 --> 00:18:45,840 Speaker 2: still has that kind of brand around is Susan Collins. 326 00:18:46,200 --> 00:18:48,159 Speaker 1: Right, what about Thomas masseying? 327 00:18:49,359 --> 00:18:54,160 Speaker 2: I mean, I can check, so Thomas Massey is independent 328 00:18:54,200 --> 00:18:56,480 Speaker 2: from Trump, but from the other direction. 329 00:18:56,359 --> 00:19:01,320 Speaker 1: Which yeah, is so much more right wing. Yeah, okay, yeah, no, 330 00:19:01,400 --> 00:19:04,280 Speaker 1: I agree. Susan Collins does have the brand of being 331 00:19:04,359 --> 00:19:06,560 Speaker 1: at Susan she marches the beat of her own drum, 332 00:19:06,600 --> 00:19:09,840 Speaker 1: and I think that she is unique. I think Cinema 333 00:19:09,840 --> 00:19:11,520 Speaker 1: would have been there if she could have held on, 334 00:19:11,600 --> 00:19:12,360 Speaker 1: but she couldn't. 335 00:19:12,800 --> 00:19:16,399 Speaker 2: Yeah, right, And you see it more with Democrats, just 336 00:19:16,480 --> 00:19:20,159 Speaker 2: because the nature of the way the electoral map, with 337 00:19:20,240 --> 00:19:23,200 Speaker 2: the Senate bias and all is is that Democrats have 338 00:19:23,280 --> 00:19:27,399 Speaker 2: to find more right wing people relative to the party 339 00:19:27,720 --> 00:19:33,040 Speaker 2: who run to be competitive. But still, just because of 340 00:19:33,240 --> 00:19:37,840 Speaker 2: how ideologically polarized everything is gone, you wouldn't be able 341 00:19:37,840 --> 00:19:42,760 Speaker 2: to get pro oil, pro gun, anti abortion, anti gay, 342 00:19:42,840 --> 00:19:47,080 Speaker 2: anti trans Democrats, you know, elected, right. I don't know 343 00:19:47,119 --> 00:19:50,760 Speaker 2: if you remember there was a guy called Charles Graham 344 00:19:51,359 --> 00:19:55,920 Speaker 2: from North Carolina. He was a Lumbee, Indian state representative 345 00:19:55,920 --> 00:19:59,119 Speaker 2: from North Carolina. He was a Democrat, and the Lumbies 346 00:19:59,320 --> 00:20:04,520 Speaker 2: are conservative leaning group of voters, and historically they've been very, 347 00:20:04,640 --> 00:20:07,800 Speaker 2: very Democratic, but now because of Trump, they've gone towards 348 00:20:07,800 --> 00:20:11,560 Speaker 2: the Republicans. And Graham was their state representative for a 349 00:20:11,560 --> 00:20:14,639 Speaker 2: long time. And when he was in the House, in 350 00:20:14,720 --> 00:20:16,560 Speaker 2: the state House, when they were doing all of the 351 00:20:16,600 --> 00:20:19,600 Speaker 2: bathroom bill stuff, I think he was one of two 352 00:20:19,680 --> 00:20:24,640 Speaker 2: Democrats to vote for that anti transgender bill. Naturally, as 353 00:20:24,680 --> 00:20:27,280 Speaker 2: you would expect, you know, when you're trying to get 354 00:20:27,400 --> 00:20:31,040 Speaker 2: national donor money, he had to repudiate a lot of 355 00:20:31,119 --> 00:20:33,840 Speaker 2: those votes that he took which were representing, you know, 356 00:20:33,880 --> 00:20:37,879 Speaker 2: the authentic beliefs of his community. And so that just 357 00:20:37,960 --> 00:20:42,359 Speaker 2: goes to show you that, you know, there are some 358 00:20:42,640 --> 00:20:47,480 Speaker 2: things that no matter where it is, the Democratic Party, 359 00:20:48,040 --> 00:20:50,160 Speaker 2: I mean, both parties have things that you that they 360 00:20:50,240 --> 00:20:53,760 Speaker 2: just will not compromise on. Yeah, the Republicans it's fealty 361 00:20:53,800 --> 00:20:57,000 Speaker 2: to Donald Trump and for Democrats it's you. 362 00:20:56,960 --> 00:21:02,080 Speaker 1: Know, children is I'm just kidding about that, Yeah, what 363 00:21:02,119 --> 00:21:05,920 Speaker 1: you said, But the main thing transing children. 364 00:21:07,000 --> 00:21:09,919 Speaker 2: But the reason for being in the Democratic Party is 365 00:21:09,960 --> 00:21:13,359 Speaker 2: that Democrats view themselves as the party that will expand 366 00:21:13,520 --> 00:21:17,720 Speaker 2: civil rights right right, since nineteen sixty four and all 367 00:21:17,800 --> 00:21:19,879 Speaker 2: that when they started to lose the white vote. That's 368 00:21:19,960 --> 00:21:22,119 Speaker 2: kind of been the whole thing is we're going to 369 00:21:22,240 --> 00:21:26,240 Speaker 2: expand the moral arc of the universe bends towards right. 370 00:21:26,240 --> 00:21:28,760 Speaker 2: You taught when you see this debate now, right, whenever 371 00:21:28,800 --> 00:21:30,679 Speaker 2: there's people who say we need to moderate on some 372 00:21:30,760 --> 00:21:34,320 Speaker 2: social and cultural issues, the go to response is, who 373 00:21:34,320 --> 00:21:36,120 Speaker 2: do you want to throw under the bus? Right, because 374 00:21:36,200 --> 00:21:38,720 Speaker 2: the idea that you can make a strategic retreat on 375 00:21:38,760 --> 00:21:43,040 Speaker 2: anything is viewed as retreating from civil rights. 376 00:21:43,480 --> 00:21:45,280 Speaker 1: That's a great point. That's a greeting on. 377 00:21:45,240 --> 00:21:49,800 Speaker 2: Civil rights is anathema to you know, the religion of politics. 378 00:21:49,800 --> 00:21:53,120 Speaker 2: That is how Democrats view everything. 379 00:21:53,680 --> 00:21:55,399 Speaker 1: That's very well put. And I actually want to go 380 00:21:55,640 --> 00:21:57,800 Speaker 1: up one little history lesson before that. There was a 381 00:21:57,840 --> 00:22:00,480 Speaker 1: guy named Bob Connelly and he ran the the US 382 00:22:00,480 --> 00:22:03,119 Speaker 1: and in South Carolina against Lindsey Graham in two thousand 383 00:22:03,160 --> 00:22:05,520 Speaker 1: and eight. South Carolina was not as deep a red 384 00:22:05,560 --> 00:22:07,080 Speaker 1: state in two thousand and eight as it is today, 385 00:22:07,840 --> 00:22:11,720 Speaker 1: but Bob Connelly was a conservative Southern Democrat more right 386 00:22:11,720 --> 00:22:14,240 Speaker 1: wing than he was more right wing than Lindsey Graham, 387 00:22:14,280 --> 00:22:17,480 Speaker 1: and the Democratic Party of South Carolina endorsed Lindsey Graham 388 00:22:17,520 --> 00:22:21,320 Speaker 1: for reelection over the conservative Democrat. But I want to 389 00:22:21,359 --> 00:22:24,000 Speaker 1: go into the article back for one second. You mentioned 390 00:22:24,000 --> 00:22:29,040 Speaker 1: something that was really interesting. Democrats since twenty sixteen have 391 00:22:29,680 --> 00:22:33,640 Speaker 1: done a better job with quality flips. They've won more 392 00:22:33,760 --> 00:22:38,120 Speaker 1: quality flips than Republicans have. What is it about Republicans where? 393 00:22:38,119 --> 00:22:41,080 Speaker 1: And if you look at a map right of super 394 00:22:41,119 --> 00:22:44,080 Speaker 1: Republican states, states that Trump won by ten points are greater. 395 00:22:44,119 --> 00:22:47,400 Speaker 1: There are twenty four states. They all have two Republican senators. 396 00:22:47,400 --> 00:22:49,840 Speaker 1: For the first time in one hundred years that every 397 00:22:49,840 --> 00:22:52,160 Speaker 1: state that elected the Republican nominee for president by double 398 00:22:52,240 --> 00:22:55,840 Speaker 1: dig just has two Republican senators. That's forty eight. There's 399 00:22:55,880 --> 00:22:58,879 Speaker 1: only fifty three Republicans. So in all the swing states, 400 00:22:58,880 --> 00:23:02,720 Speaker 1: which there are a number, they've only elected five. Why 401 00:23:02,760 --> 00:23:05,320 Speaker 1: are Republicans and two come from North Carolina, which is 402 00:23:05,400 --> 00:23:08,159 Speaker 1: vote a regularly Republican for a long time? Now it 403 00:23:08,840 --> 00:23:14,800 Speaker 1: why do Republicans have such a hard time winning senates? 404 00:23:14,880 --> 00:23:18,400 Speaker 1: Getting the Senate seats in Nevada or Michigan or New 405 00:23:18,440 --> 00:23:21,720 Speaker 1: Hampshire or all these other places that are purple states, 406 00:23:22,080 --> 00:23:25,359 Speaker 1: and Democrats almost can typically rely on that. 407 00:23:26,600 --> 00:23:29,600 Speaker 2: Well, I mean, I think it comes down to a 408 00:23:29,640 --> 00:23:32,400 Speaker 2: few things. The first is incumbency, right, So a lot 409 00:23:32,440 --> 00:23:36,120 Speaker 2: of there's just a lot of Democratic incumbents, and while 410 00:23:36,160 --> 00:23:39,320 Speaker 2: candidate quality is not as much as it used to be, 411 00:23:39,480 --> 00:23:43,439 Speaker 2: it's still something. Right. So it might not get a 412 00:23:43,480 --> 00:23:46,040 Speaker 2: Democrat like John Tesla to win a state that Trump 413 00:23:46,080 --> 00:23:51,240 Speaker 2: won by sixteen points, but a state like Pennsylvania Wisconsin 414 00:23:51,280 --> 00:23:53,879 Speaker 2: that Trump won by two you know, if you have 415 00:23:53,960 --> 00:23:56,760 Speaker 2: an incumbent that's well like, Yeah, that is the difference 416 00:23:56,840 --> 00:24:01,160 Speaker 2: between you know, winning and low for a Democrats. That's 417 00:24:01,160 --> 00:24:05,600 Speaker 2: the first. The second is that well, I mean, you know, 418 00:24:05,680 --> 00:24:08,760 Speaker 2: Lacia has said this a little bit in stronger terms 419 00:24:08,760 --> 00:24:12,600 Speaker 2: than me, but frankly, a lot of Republican candidates come 420 00:24:12,680 --> 00:24:17,120 Speaker 2: across as crazy people. If you look at the war scores, 421 00:24:18,160 --> 00:24:21,560 Speaker 2: voters are practically begging what is war explans the reason 422 00:24:21,800 --> 00:24:23,159 Speaker 2: wit above replacements? 423 00:24:23,280 --> 00:24:25,240 Speaker 1: Okay, Right, voters are. 424 00:24:25,160 --> 00:24:30,320 Speaker 2: Practically begging for Republicans to nominate people that demonstrate some 425 00:24:30,440 --> 00:24:35,040 Speaker 2: amount of independence and likeability. Right. When they do, it's 426 00:24:35,080 --> 00:24:37,880 Speaker 2: basically impossible for them to lose. Right, If you look 427 00:24:37,880 --> 00:24:40,400 Speaker 2: at John Katco in twenty. 428 00:24:40,960 --> 00:24:44,520 Speaker 1: John Kaco is a congressman from New York by the way. 429 00:24:44,440 --> 00:24:47,840 Speaker 2: From the Syracuse area. In twenty sixteen, he did twenty 430 00:24:47,880 --> 00:24:51,280 Speaker 2: two points better than the average Republican would have been 431 00:24:51,280 --> 00:24:54,880 Speaker 2: expected to and Democrats tried for years to beat him 432 00:24:54,920 --> 00:24:55,680 Speaker 2: and they never did. 433 00:24:56,320 --> 00:24:56,480 Speaker 1: Right. 434 00:24:56,560 --> 00:24:59,639 Speaker 2: It's it's a similar effect with Susan Collins right on 435 00:24:59,720 --> 00:25:04,720 Speaker 2: paid it's a very blue district, right, the district state right, 436 00:25:04,800 --> 00:25:06,919 Speaker 2: and the median voter is a Democrat. But if they 437 00:25:07,200 --> 00:25:10,560 Speaker 2: like you for reasons that go beyond ideology, because at 438 00:25:10,560 --> 00:25:13,720 Speaker 2: that point you're voting against what you believe values twise, 439 00:25:13,800 --> 00:25:16,240 Speaker 2: you're saying, I think this is a good person, I'm 440 00:25:16,240 --> 00:25:19,920 Speaker 2: going to vote for them. It's very difficult. It's very 441 00:25:19,920 --> 00:25:23,840 Speaker 2: difficult to find someone who can break that permission structure, right, 442 00:25:23,880 --> 00:25:27,040 Speaker 2: And it's why someone like Larry Hogan did really, really, 443 00:25:27,080 --> 00:25:30,359 Speaker 2: really well. Like if you go down the list of 444 00:25:30,600 --> 00:25:35,959 Speaker 2: you know, right, Republican overperformances for war, right, there's plenty 445 00:25:36,000 --> 00:25:38,840 Speaker 2: of Republicans who are like, you know, just you know, 446 00:25:39,160 --> 00:25:41,960 Speaker 2: bog standard. I support Trump, but I'm going to be 447 00:25:42,040 --> 00:25:44,720 Speaker 2: kind of quiet about it. Republicans, there are plenty of 448 00:25:44,760 --> 00:25:47,480 Speaker 2: those who do well. But you would be very very 449 00:25:47,480 --> 00:25:50,879 Speaker 2: hard pressed to talk about somebody like Matt Gates or 450 00:25:50,960 --> 00:25:53,680 Speaker 2: Marjorie Taylor Green. But you know, the people that a 451 00:25:53,720 --> 00:25:57,080 Speaker 2: lot of people you know, identify as avatars of the 452 00:25:57,119 --> 00:26:01,480 Speaker 2: Republican movement who are going to get more votes because 453 00:26:01,520 --> 00:26:03,640 Speaker 2: of their you know, for lack of a better word, 454 00:26:03,760 --> 00:26:06,879 Speaker 2: slavish devotion to Donald Trump. And these are the types 455 00:26:06,880 --> 00:26:11,400 Speaker 2: of people that increasingly get selected for in Republican primaries. 456 00:26:11,640 --> 00:26:15,840 Speaker 1: What about so name for a name for people, some 457 00:26:16,400 --> 00:26:21,320 Speaker 1: Democrats and some Republicans who besides Susan Collins, who are 458 00:26:21,440 --> 00:26:25,320 Speaker 1: just extraordinarily likable to the point that they can vastly 459 00:26:25,359 --> 00:26:27,359 Speaker 1: outperform their district. Someone who comes, in my mind is 460 00:26:27,400 --> 00:26:32,080 Speaker 1: like Brian Fitzpatrick, who represents Bucks County, Pennsylvania, easily overperforms 461 00:26:32,080 --> 00:26:33,879 Speaker 1: Frump by fifteen points in every election. 462 00:26:34,359 --> 00:26:37,720 Speaker 2: Yeah, so Fitzpatrick is a good example because Fitzpatrick is 463 00:26:37,760 --> 00:26:40,200 Speaker 2: not even particularly moderate, right. 464 00:26:40,040 --> 00:26:43,520 Speaker 1: Like, he's pretty liberal from my standards, He's very liberal. 465 00:26:43,560 --> 00:26:46,199 Speaker 2: But okay, yeah, at the very least he's not Susan 466 00:26:46,240 --> 00:26:50,200 Speaker 2: Collins like he represents that Trump one district. Now, at 467 00:26:50,320 --> 00:26:53,320 Speaker 2: least on policy he votes mostly the same way. And 468 00:26:53,560 --> 00:26:57,080 Speaker 2: even if he hashes out some moderate versus conservative policy 469 00:26:57,119 --> 00:27:02,280 Speaker 2: differences in committee. Right, he certainly no, he's certainly know 470 00:27:02,400 --> 00:27:08,119 Speaker 2: Larry Hogan at least I write that way. And just 471 00:27:08,160 --> 00:27:10,959 Speaker 2: because of the fact that his whole brand, he's had 472 00:27:11,000 --> 00:27:13,439 Speaker 2: a brand in the area, which is that, you know, 473 00:27:13,680 --> 00:27:18,160 Speaker 2: I represent a historically blue leading district. I'm not gonna 474 00:27:18,359 --> 00:27:21,320 Speaker 2: just come out loud and say I support Donald Trump 475 00:27:21,359 --> 00:27:24,359 Speaker 2: on everything, you know, and he's been able to do 476 00:27:24,400 --> 00:27:27,480 Speaker 2: that in a way that's not off putting and not ideolgical. 477 00:27:28,240 --> 00:27:32,920 Speaker 2: That makes things very easy for you know, Democrats, especially 478 00:27:33,040 --> 00:27:35,879 Speaker 2: not you know, died in the wool on Twitter, blue 479 00:27:35,880 --> 00:27:40,159 Speaker 2: Sky Democrats right to say, oh yeah, like I'm going 480 00:27:40,240 --> 00:27:42,760 Speaker 2: to vote for Biden, but you know, I'm an independent guy. 481 00:27:42,800 --> 00:27:45,600 Speaker 2: This Fitzpatrick dude seems like he's got some smart ideas. 482 00:27:45,680 --> 00:27:48,639 Speaker 2: I'll send him back to DC. Right, So Fitzpatrick is 483 00:27:48,680 --> 00:27:51,840 Speaker 2: another person like that. Let's see, I actually have the 484 00:27:51,920 --> 00:27:53,280 Speaker 2: database right here, we can look. 485 00:27:53,359 --> 00:27:55,760 Speaker 1: Okay, so name like, name the top three Republicans and 486 00:27:55,840 --> 00:27:58,480 Speaker 1: top three Democrats Susan Collins and Brian Fitzpatrick. 487 00:27:58,520 --> 00:28:02,600 Speaker 2: Aside, so from the twenty twenty four cycles, let's actually 488 00:28:02,640 --> 00:28:06,800 Speaker 2: look at this because John Hoven won insanely large margins. 489 00:28:06,840 --> 00:28:09,720 Speaker 1: He's the Senator from North Dako. Former governor then turned 490 00:28:09,760 --> 00:28:11,240 Speaker 1: senator from North Dakota. 491 00:28:11,320 --> 00:28:14,960 Speaker 2: Ilhan Omar also is terrible as candidate. For some reason, 492 00:28:15,359 --> 00:28:16,080 Speaker 2: it's unclear. 493 00:28:16,200 --> 00:28:20,360 Speaker 1: She underperforms. Elizabeth Warren is a terrible candidate. She under 494 00:28:20,400 --> 00:28:22,679 Speaker 1: performs if they were not. You know, the funny thing is, 495 00:28:22,720 --> 00:28:24,879 Speaker 1: and this is the frustrating thing for Republicans while you 496 00:28:24,960 --> 00:28:30,040 Speaker 1: look it up. Republicans have these deep red states like Wyoming, 497 00:28:30,200 --> 00:28:34,080 Speaker 1: North Dakota where they elect these very moderate middle of 498 00:28:34,080 --> 00:28:37,160 Speaker 1: the Republicans, and then Democrats will have these blue, deep 499 00:28:37,200 --> 00:28:40,320 Speaker 1: blue states where they will have foaming at the mouth 500 00:28:40,400 --> 00:28:44,600 Speaker 1: progressives and will run our most right wing candidate in 501 00:28:44,680 --> 00:28:48,520 Speaker 1: swing states and lose, and they'll run moderates in swing 502 00:28:48,560 --> 00:28:51,320 Speaker 1: states and win. And that's always been the frustrational Republican 503 00:28:51,360 --> 00:28:56,240 Speaker 1: Republicans is why aren't conservatives actually representing Republicans super conservative districts? 504 00:28:56,680 --> 00:28:59,080 Speaker 2: Well, it's fair, Okay, So I got your answer here. Okay, 505 00:28:59,160 --> 00:29:03,400 Speaker 2: So four leaving a side, Larry Hogan and ilhan Omar 506 00:29:03,480 --> 00:29:07,520 Speaker 2: and Prime Ila Japaul and all the other You're in 507 00:29:07,560 --> 00:29:10,600 Speaker 2: a really blue district, but you're you know, you're a communist, 508 00:29:10,640 --> 00:29:14,600 Speaker 2: so you're gonna underperform by like twenty points, right. Okay, 509 00:29:15,800 --> 00:29:18,720 Speaker 2: So Michael Bombgardner from Washington, Right, you know. 510 00:29:19,280 --> 00:29:21,960 Speaker 1: Her name on the on the tip of everyone's mouth, 511 00:29:22,040 --> 00:29:22,840 Speaker 1: Michael Bombard. 512 00:29:23,080 --> 00:29:24,800 Speaker 2: I don't know much about him, but I couldn't. 513 00:29:24,800 --> 00:29:26,280 Speaker 1: I wouldn't knowhim if they hit him in the car. 514 00:29:27,240 --> 00:29:30,120 Speaker 2: I don't know much about him, but I remember when 515 00:29:30,120 --> 00:29:33,280 Speaker 2: he won. He was very much seen as right wing, 516 00:29:33,360 --> 00:29:36,640 Speaker 2: but not you know, like a die hard far right 517 00:29:36,880 --> 00:29:40,880 Speaker 2: pariety alg right. He did what was it, like, nine 518 00:29:40,920 --> 00:29:45,560 Speaker 2: points better than average, Brian Fitzpatrick nine points better than average? Right? 519 00:29:47,000 --> 00:29:49,760 Speaker 2: If you look at Mike Turner nine points better than average. 520 00:29:49,800 --> 00:29:50,560 Speaker 1: He's from Ohio. 521 00:29:50,960 --> 00:29:54,320 Speaker 2: Yeah, and Mike Turner is someone who's definitely like known 522 00:29:54,520 --> 00:29:57,800 Speaker 2: for being a little bit more moderate than the Median Republic. 523 00:29:58,360 --> 00:30:00,960 Speaker 2: You know, Jamie Herrera Butler is well back when she 524 00:30:01,120 --> 00:30:06,320 Speaker 2: was in Congress Washington moderate. Dan Newhouse not a moderate. 525 00:30:06,400 --> 00:30:09,200 Speaker 2: He just decided to impeach Trump and. 526 00:30:08,880 --> 00:30:11,720 Speaker 1: He's he's You and I have very different terms the 527 00:30:11,720 --> 00:30:12,520 Speaker 1: word moderate. 528 00:30:13,600 --> 00:30:17,040 Speaker 2: But at the very least Dan Newhouse is what would 529 00:30:17,040 --> 00:30:19,240 Speaker 2: have been before the Trump era. He would have been 530 00:30:19,280 --> 00:30:19,960 Speaker 2: considered a. 531 00:30:19,840 --> 00:30:22,719 Speaker 1: Concert typical Republican yeah what. Okay, So who are some 532 00:30:22,840 --> 00:30:26,760 Speaker 1: Democrats who very well overperform expectations. 533 00:30:26,920 --> 00:30:31,120 Speaker 2: Okay, well let's go through this so Democrats okay, yeah, 534 00:30:31,160 --> 00:30:36,640 Speaker 2: this list? I okay, So Joe Manchin obviously obviously, yeah right, okay, 535 00:30:36,680 --> 00:30:41,360 Speaker 2: Doug Jones, Well that's because he ran against Roy Moore. Yeah, 536 00:30:41,640 --> 00:30:45,479 Speaker 2: so Colin Peterson even when he lost in twenty twenty. 537 00:30:45,520 --> 00:30:48,320 Speaker 2: There's the sugar beet farmer from Minnesota. 538 00:30:48,760 --> 00:30:48,960 Speaker 1: Right. 539 00:30:50,640 --> 00:30:52,840 Speaker 2: Then let's see in terms of twenty twenty four. 540 00:30:52,960 --> 00:30:54,360 Speaker 1: Yeah, I'm talking about the last election. 541 00:30:54,600 --> 00:30:57,760 Speaker 2: Oh yeah, Dan Osborne, right, not really a Democrat. 542 00:30:58,600 --> 00:31:01,160 Speaker 1: Oh he's in Nebraska. He ran as an independent with 543 00:31:01,200 --> 00:31:02,760 Speaker 1: the Democrats support in Nebraska. 544 00:31:02,840 --> 00:31:06,720 Speaker 2: Okay, yeah, so not really a Democrat, but everybody got 545 00:31:06,760 --> 00:31:11,120 Speaker 2: the message that he's not a Republican, he's anti immigration, 546 00:31:11,680 --> 00:31:14,720 Speaker 2: he's not exactly a woke guy, because he's basically told 547 00:31:14,760 --> 00:31:18,320 Speaker 2: the Nebraska Democratic Party that, you know, to f off right, 548 00:31:20,280 --> 00:31:22,800 Speaker 2: you know, so that that that was the highest one 549 00:31:22,840 --> 00:31:25,680 Speaker 2: for them. Then if we look here ed Case and Hawaii, 550 00:31:25,840 --> 00:31:30,000 Speaker 2: who aggressive really disliked. One because he's a white man 551 00:31:30,080 --> 00:31:33,200 Speaker 2: in a majority Asian district. That does not go over 552 00:31:33,240 --> 00:31:38,080 Speaker 2: well with them, but two because he's very much a 553 00:31:38,120 --> 00:31:41,960 Speaker 2: blue dog right, very he's a very old school blue 554 00:31:42,000 --> 00:31:42,720 Speaker 2: dog Democrat. 555 00:31:42,760 --> 00:31:44,600 Speaker 1: He voted for I think the Lake and Riley Act 556 00:31:44,640 --> 00:31:47,200 Speaker 1: and other stuff. He does have some surprising votes at case. 557 00:31:47,320 --> 00:31:48,440 Speaker 1: I think he would have for that one. But he 558 00:31:48,520 --> 00:31:50,200 Speaker 1: votes for some legislation. 559 00:31:51,080 --> 00:31:55,080 Speaker 2: He's a very moderate person relative to the area. He represents. 560 00:31:56,240 --> 00:31:58,560 Speaker 2: Brian Shatz in Hawaii, but that was twenty two. 561 00:31:59,560 --> 00:32:01,880 Speaker 1: Let's see, he's a Senator for Hawaii. 562 00:32:01,880 --> 00:32:05,480 Speaker 2: Okay, So yeah, Jill Takuda from Hawaii as well. I 563 00:32:05,480 --> 00:32:06,840 Speaker 2: don't know what's in the water in Hawaii. 564 00:32:06,880 --> 00:32:09,440 Speaker 1: I don't. Yeah, I couldn't they Maybe it's the heat. 565 00:32:09,480 --> 00:32:12,680 Speaker 1: I don't know. So that's in. That's all very interesting stuff. 566 00:32:12,680 --> 00:32:15,040 Speaker 1: So Hawaii, you liked a lot of people that were 567 00:32:15,080 --> 00:32:17,480 Speaker 1: more moderate than than the party than they would have 568 00:32:18,080 --> 00:32:22,200 Speaker 1: represent otherwise. And for Republicans it seems like it's I mean, 569 00:32:22,240 --> 00:32:24,240 Speaker 1: Hawaii is a very blue state, although it's moved to 570 00:32:24,240 --> 00:32:25,160 Speaker 1: the right substantially. 571 00:32:25,160 --> 00:32:27,480 Speaker 2: But to be fair, there's some more the Hawaii is 572 00:32:27,480 --> 00:32:32,080 Speaker 2: like four people, but like Steven Lynch is here right in. Yeah, 573 00:32:32,160 --> 00:32:35,440 Speaker 2: the old school Irish white guy Democrat that you know, 574 00:32:35,520 --> 00:32:37,880 Speaker 2: the progressive wing in Boston has been trying to get 575 00:32:38,000 --> 00:32:43,520 Speaker 2: rid of for years. Let's see Cleo Fields, right, you 576 00:32:43,560 --> 00:32:44,480 Speaker 2: know establishment. 577 00:32:44,560 --> 00:32:46,000 Speaker 1: I don't even know who she is. Who is she? 578 00:32:46,760 --> 00:32:50,640 Speaker 1: He is? He is? 579 00:32:51,560 --> 00:32:54,080 Speaker 2: He was in Congress in one of those majority black 580 00:32:54,160 --> 00:32:57,920 Speaker 2: districts in Louisiana. You know they redrew so he came 581 00:32:58,000 --> 00:33:00,440 Speaker 2: back to run. He's very much, you know, a main stream, 582 00:33:00,560 --> 00:33:03,160 Speaker 2: middle of the road, you know, black candidate with you know, 583 00:33:03,400 --> 00:33:06,920 Speaker 2: established in the area. John tested ten points better than 584 00:33:06,960 --> 00:33:11,960 Speaker 2: average this this cycle, right, Angus King is an independence, 585 00:33:12,000 --> 00:33:16,160 Speaker 2: so that one doesn't. It's kind of weird. Okay, Yeah, 586 00:33:16,240 --> 00:33:19,080 Speaker 2: Mary Peltol she lost, but she was nine points better 587 00:33:19,120 --> 00:33:19,600 Speaker 2: than average. 588 00:33:19,640 --> 00:33:22,480 Speaker 1: She represented Alaska, the whole state of Alaska and the 589 00:33:22,480 --> 00:33:25,600 Speaker 1: House representatives. And wait one more, one more for the road. 590 00:33:27,640 --> 00:33:29,880 Speaker 2: Are we talking? Incumbents are just people in general? 591 00:33:29,960 --> 00:33:30,800 Speaker 1: Just people in general? 592 00:33:31,040 --> 00:33:34,480 Speaker 2: Oh well, then Lauren Bobert, Scott Perry, and Marjorie Taylor Greens. 593 00:33:34,560 --> 00:33:36,680 Speaker 1: Those are all people who didn't terrible. I mean, Lauren 594 00:33:36,720 --> 00:33:39,960 Speaker 1: Bobert almost lost in twenty teen. Scott Perry, I can 595 00:33:39,960 --> 00:33:41,920 Speaker 1: I tell you. I'll tell you something really interesting. I 596 00:33:42,120 --> 00:33:44,160 Speaker 1: never said this on my podcast. I'll give you guys 597 00:33:44,200 --> 00:33:46,080 Speaker 1: a little scoop. I was in a meeting with some 598 00:33:46,200 --> 00:33:49,040 Speaker 1: NRCC and RNC people. This is a few months ago, 599 00:33:49,120 --> 00:33:51,480 Speaker 1: and there's this one congressman, I forget who it is. 600 00:33:51,520 --> 00:33:54,360 Speaker 1: In Pennsylvania. He represents like an R plus forty C, 601 00:33:54,640 --> 00:33:59,800 Speaker 1: like a super Republican seat, and he's allegedly considering running 602 00:33:59,800 --> 00:34:02,480 Speaker 1: for governor, so he would have to vacate the seat. 603 00:34:02,520 --> 00:34:03,800 Speaker 2: What Dan Music? 604 00:34:04,240 --> 00:34:07,520 Speaker 1: Yes, Dan Music is considering leaving the seat to go 605 00:34:07,600 --> 00:34:08,320 Speaker 1: run for governor. 606 00:34:08,680 --> 00:34:08,919 Speaker 2: Yeah. 607 00:34:08,920 --> 00:34:13,200 Speaker 1: And I said to Dan, RCC and the RNC, ask 608 00:34:13,400 --> 00:34:17,120 Speaker 1: Perry to switch districts, ask him to run another southern 609 00:34:17,160 --> 00:34:19,080 Speaker 1: state where he won't be able to lose. 610 00:34:19,320 --> 00:34:20,240 Speaker 2: Does he live there? 611 00:34:20,920 --> 00:34:24,880 Speaker 1: Does anyone live anywhere in Congress? They all live in Washington. 612 00:34:25,000 --> 00:34:27,600 Speaker 2: Okay, see, I would say that, but remember the last 613 00:34:27,640 --> 00:34:31,200 Speaker 2: time Republicans tried running someone in Pennsylvania who didn't live 614 00:34:31,280 --> 00:34:31,800 Speaker 2: in the place. 615 00:34:31,840 --> 00:34:34,960 Speaker 1: He lives in the state of Pennsylvania. It's the House 616 00:34:35,000 --> 00:34:38,200 Speaker 1: of Representatives. It's not he doesn't, he's he lives in Pennsylvania. Anyway. 617 00:34:38,520 --> 00:34:42,239 Speaker 1: I pressed very heavily. Lauren Bobert moved across the state 618 00:34:42,280 --> 00:34:45,840 Speaker 1: of Colorado run for reelection. I pressed very heavily. 619 00:34:45,600 --> 00:34:47,520 Speaker 2: Like eight points worse than she should have. 620 00:34:47,960 --> 00:34:50,239 Speaker 1: But she did. But she won because she wouldn't have won, 621 00:34:50,320 --> 00:34:53,239 Speaker 1: probably in her old district. But I insisted, like, hey, 622 00:34:53,760 --> 00:34:55,920 Speaker 1: do that and have him run in a seat that 623 00:34:55,960 --> 00:34:58,279 Speaker 1: he can't lose. I mean, any glass of water with 624 00:34:58,320 --> 00:34:59,640 Speaker 1: an R behind their name is going to win. And 625 00:34:59,680 --> 00:35:01,319 Speaker 1: hit that kind of a seat in the User seat 626 00:35:01,640 --> 00:35:04,360 Speaker 1: and the Perry seat. It's very like it's Harrisburg area. 627 00:35:04,400 --> 00:35:07,520 Speaker 1: It's getting bluer and bluer and bluer. And I said, 628 00:35:07,680 --> 00:35:11,480 Speaker 1: you know, get Scott Perry to switch seats. And he apparently. 629 00:35:11,360 --> 00:35:13,839 Speaker 2: Perry was not Scott Perry. He would not have any 630 00:35:13,840 --> 00:35:16,640 Speaker 2: problem winning it. You could put a replacement Republican and 631 00:35:16,800 --> 00:35:18,000 Speaker 2: they'd probably. 632 00:35:17,760 --> 00:35:19,400 Speaker 1: Right, but they probably would win, right, all right, But 633 00:35:19,400 --> 00:35:21,759 Speaker 1: Scott Perry's took up anyway. The point is I said 634 00:35:21,760 --> 00:35:25,319 Speaker 1: this to them. Someone relayed the message to Perry that 635 00:35:25,719 --> 00:35:28,919 Speaker 1: this was an idea, and Perry said, f off, I've 636 00:35:28,920 --> 00:35:31,319 Speaker 1: always won the seat and I always will. I think 637 00:35:31,360 --> 00:35:35,120 Speaker 1: he won by half a point last time, very very close. 638 00:35:36,960 --> 00:35:41,480 Speaker 1: We'll see. So anyway, okay, Arman, you've been a fantastic guest. 639 00:35:41,680 --> 00:35:43,560 Speaker 1: We have to get going. Where can you read your 640 00:35:43,600 --> 00:35:45,600 Speaker 1: stuff and read more about split ticket? 641 00:35:45,880 --> 00:35:49,200 Speaker 2: So obviously you know we're on Twitter. I think it's 642 00:35:49,320 --> 00:35:55,319 Speaker 2: at split Ticket Underscore. Our website is split dashticket dot org. 643 00:35:55,920 --> 00:35:58,680 Speaker 2: And you know we have articles that come out in 644 00:35:58,719 --> 00:36:01,000 Speaker 2: the Washington Post. You know, we have stuff in the 645 00:36:01,000 --> 00:36:04,240 Speaker 2: New York Times, you know, so you know when. 646 00:36:03,640 --> 00:36:06,279 Speaker 1: You're slumming it with me today. So it's really exactly no. 647 00:36:06,760 --> 00:36:08,200 Speaker 2: I love talking honestly. 648 00:36:09,600 --> 00:36:11,480 Speaker 1: All right, man, this has been so great. Everyone check 649 00:36:11,520 --> 00:36:14,040 Speaker 1: out split ticket for more stuff. Thank you so much 650 00:36:14,080 --> 00:36:15,200 Speaker 1: for coming on my podcast. 651 00:36:15,480 --> 00:36:16,960 Speaker 2: Of course, hope to be back soon. 652 00:36:17,080 --> 00:36:19,680 Speaker 1: You're listening to It's a Numbers Game with Ryan Grodowsky, 653 00:36:19,800 --> 00:36:24,879 Speaker 1: We'll be right back all right now for the ask 654 00:36:24,960 --> 00:36:27,600 Speaker 1: Me Anything segment of the show. I love this segment. 655 00:36:27,640 --> 00:36:29,839 Speaker 1: I love getting questions from you guys. Email me if 656 00:36:29,880 --> 00:36:32,239 Speaker 1: you have a question for me to answer. Ryan at 657 00:36:32,360 --> 00:36:35,800 Speaker 1: Numbers Game Podcast dot com. That's Ryan at Numbers Plural 658 00:36:35,880 --> 00:36:40,520 Speaker 1: Numbers Game Podcast dot com. Okay, this one comes from Mike. Ryan, 659 00:36:40,920 --> 00:36:43,680 Speaker 1: I have a suggestion for a future podcast. One of 660 00:36:43,680 --> 00:36:45,840 Speaker 1: the most interesting things you have mentioned on your past 661 00:36:45,880 --> 00:36:48,480 Speaker 1: podcast is you're feeling that Elon was not in doged 662 00:36:48,560 --> 00:36:51,279 Speaker 1: to save money, but alternative motives. Playing off of this, 663 00:36:51,360 --> 00:36:54,000 Speaker 1: why not do a podcast on Doge's successes. The Real 664 00:36:54,080 --> 00:36:57,360 Speaker 1: Numbers it's future and who will lead it going forward? 665 00:36:57,400 --> 00:37:00,200 Speaker 1: For instance, what was the real deal with the VEC leaving? 666 00:37:00,480 --> 00:37:03,440 Speaker 1: What were Elon's real motives? I don't want to get 667 00:37:03,480 --> 00:37:08,000 Speaker 1: you banned from X. That's very nice that you, Mike. 668 00:37:09,120 --> 00:37:11,880 Speaker 1: And what about all the high level people Elon Burdon's 669 00:37:11,880 --> 00:37:15,640 Speaker 1: a Doge with big balls, continue to work for the government. 670 00:37:15,719 --> 00:37:18,560 Speaker 1: How can we get DOGE or the Doge principles integrated 671 00:37:18,600 --> 00:37:21,600 Speaker 1: in our government process permanently. Thank you, Mike for that 672 00:37:21,800 --> 00:37:24,760 Speaker 1: wonderful question. I don't know if it warrants an entire 673 00:37:25,120 --> 00:37:29,440 Speaker 1: show episode. So here's the thing with the numbers. The 674 00:37:29,680 --> 00:37:32,759 Speaker 1: problem with trying to figure out the numbers of how 675 00:37:32,880 --> 00:37:35,600 Speaker 1: much DOGE has saved is a lot of it is 676 00:37:35,800 --> 00:37:40,680 Speaker 1: estimates that Elon has come out with with very little 677 00:37:40,960 --> 00:37:43,360 Speaker 1: hard numbers attached to it. So he has said he 678 00:37:43,400 --> 00:37:48,120 Speaker 1: saved on one hundred and fifty billion dollars. Other estimates 679 00:37:48,120 --> 00:37:51,800 Speaker 1: have it to thirty nine billion dollars, and they're already 680 00:37:51,840 --> 00:37:55,960 Speaker 1: doing some other rehiring. So I don't, I can't. It's 681 00:37:56,000 --> 00:37:57,960 Speaker 1: hard for me to put an exact figure on what 682 00:37:58,000 --> 00:38:02,840 Speaker 1: they actually saved. As far as you know, pen to paper. 683 00:38:03,200 --> 00:38:05,560 Speaker 1: Let's look at the books and really see a deep 684 00:38:05,600 --> 00:38:09,680 Speaker 1: dive into you know, what the actual costs were. I 685 00:38:09,719 --> 00:38:13,680 Speaker 1: think the problem with DOGE has always been people are 686 00:38:13,719 --> 00:38:18,800 Speaker 1: looking for easy, painless solutions to very complex and sometimes 687 00:38:18,800 --> 00:38:21,720 Speaker 1: painful problems. And I was on the Megan McCain show 688 00:38:22,200 --> 00:38:24,440 Speaker 1: a couple of maybe a week ago, and someone came 689 00:38:24,480 --> 00:38:27,440 Speaker 1: on and his nonprofit was being cut and funding and 690 00:38:27,680 --> 00:38:29,839 Speaker 1: his wife worked for a head start, and YadA, YadA, YadA, 691 00:38:29,840 --> 00:38:31,680 Speaker 1: and youep was saying, these are free services they send of, 692 00:38:31,719 --> 00:38:36,520 Speaker 1: these are tax payer funded services, and should they receive 693 00:38:36,600 --> 00:38:40,960 Speaker 1: some cuts. Probably if we're concerned with our budget deficit 694 00:38:41,040 --> 00:38:43,560 Speaker 1: and our debt, as we should be, because you go 695 00:38:43,600 --> 00:38:45,400 Speaker 1: back to two thousand when I was a kid and 696 00:38:45,440 --> 00:38:47,560 Speaker 1: we had a balanced budget. They were saying we're going 697 00:38:47,600 --> 00:38:49,920 Speaker 1: to pay down the entire debt by twenty twelve. That's 698 00:38:49,920 --> 00:38:55,160 Speaker 1: what they said in two thousand. That's inconceivable now inconceivable. 699 00:38:55,600 --> 00:38:58,600 Speaker 1: But if we're going to have a hard conversation, which 700 00:38:58,640 --> 00:39:01,600 Speaker 1: we'll have to involve Denmark as well, because you can't 701 00:39:01,600 --> 00:39:04,279 Speaker 1: get through this with just a one party vote, and 702 00:39:04,320 --> 00:39:08,000 Speaker 1: you sit there and say, hey, how do we balance 703 00:39:08,040 --> 00:39:11,320 Speaker 1: the budget and reduce the deficit ultimately eliminate the deficit 704 00:39:11,400 --> 00:39:15,520 Speaker 1: over a ten year period. That will involve Medicare, Medicaid, 705 00:39:15,520 --> 00:39:20,440 Speaker 1: social Security, and the military and tax increases. Like you're 706 00:39:20,480 --> 00:39:23,760 Speaker 1: going to have to go all in on everything. Everyone 707 00:39:23,760 --> 00:39:26,640 Speaker 1: will have to hold a hand together and say, I'll 708 00:39:26,680 --> 00:39:28,799 Speaker 1: give you this if you give me that. What's something 709 00:39:28,800 --> 00:39:31,520 Speaker 1: you're willing to give in too. And maybe it won't 710 00:39:31,560 --> 00:39:35,080 Speaker 1: start with a ten trillion dollar cut. Maybe it starts 711 00:39:35,080 --> 00:39:38,320 Speaker 1: with a five hundred billion dollar cut. Maybe it starts 712 00:39:38,320 --> 00:39:40,640 Speaker 1: with just saving Social Security, which is really not that 713 00:39:40,760 --> 00:39:43,400 Speaker 1: hard to do. To reform Social Security, it's a fairly easy, 714 00:39:43,719 --> 00:39:46,719 Speaker 1: simple plan. Medicaid and medicare get very very difficult. The 715 00:39:46,760 --> 00:39:49,880 Speaker 1: military is very difficult. Servicing the debt is very difficult. 716 00:39:50,280 --> 00:39:54,879 Speaker 1: It's hard to work these other parts of the budget out. 717 00:39:55,000 --> 00:39:58,000 Speaker 1: But republic I mean, listen, Donald Trump put on and 718 00:39:58,040 --> 00:40:00,760 Speaker 1: offer a couple of times closed the carry just loophole. 719 00:40:01,280 --> 00:40:04,280 Speaker 1: Increase taxes for people who make five million dollars a year. 720 00:40:05,000 --> 00:40:07,759 Speaker 1: That's probably very and I know it's not probably that 721 00:40:07,960 --> 00:40:12,600 Speaker 1: is politically popular. Saving social Security, if they frame it 722 00:40:12,600 --> 00:40:15,640 Speaker 1: in a certain way that's bipartisan, would be probably very popular. 723 00:40:16,239 --> 00:40:18,839 Speaker 1: Looking into the waste for an abuse from the Pentagon 724 00:40:19,080 --> 00:40:21,319 Speaker 1: would be popular, although it's hard because a lot of 725 00:40:22,480 --> 00:40:27,040 Speaker 1: congressional districts have servicing the Pentagon as part of their economy. 726 00:40:28,160 --> 00:40:31,840 Speaker 1: But still that's very very important. Medicare and Medicaid gets 727 00:40:31,920 --> 00:40:35,200 Speaker 1: really really really tough, really really really difficult, and I 728 00:40:35,200 --> 00:40:39,000 Speaker 1: think that cutting illegal aliens off to Medicare and Medicaid 729 00:40:39,040 --> 00:40:44,399 Speaker 1: is a good start to saving the programs. But yeah, 730 00:40:44,480 --> 00:40:46,800 Speaker 1: I mean, you have to put everything on the table, 731 00:40:47,480 --> 00:40:49,920 Speaker 1: and we're still not willing to have that conversation. And 732 00:40:49,960 --> 00:40:53,440 Speaker 1: the only way you incorporate doge into the government is 733 00:40:53,600 --> 00:40:58,080 Speaker 1: you either change Congress or you get Congress to have 734 00:40:58,200 --> 00:41:02,080 Speaker 1: serious players, or you passing little individual bills which allow 735 00:41:02,160 --> 00:41:04,960 Speaker 1: a presidential linemind in Vedo, and you make a president 736 00:41:05,040 --> 00:41:08,000 Speaker 1: like Trump who is not running for reelection unless they 737 00:41:08,040 --> 00:41:11,000 Speaker 1: change the constitution, make him the bad guy because Congress 738 00:41:11,000 --> 00:41:13,080 Speaker 1: hates doing their job, and have him do line on 739 00:41:13,120 --> 00:41:16,160 Speaker 1: and vetoms to reduce spending one way or the other. 740 00:41:16,200 --> 00:41:18,960 Speaker 1: But they're not due. Congress is not taking this job seriously. 741 00:41:19,080 --> 00:41:23,600 Speaker 1: For Republicans, does was a branding issue and and that 742 00:41:23,800 --> 00:41:26,040 Speaker 1: was it. As far as vek Vivec is just annoying. 743 00:41:26,120 --> 00:41:29,160 Speaker 1: No one likes Veak, absolutely, no one can stand him. 744 00:41:29,160 --> 00:41:32,080 Speaker 1: He's a complete I already said Connor artist once in 745 00:41:32,120 --> 00:41:35,440 Speaker 1: the show. But allegedly con artists look up to his 746 00:41:35,600 --> 00:41:39,040 Speaker 1: look up. Look up his mother's connection to his healthcare 747 00:41:39,120 --> 00:41:43,480 Speaker 1: company and how and how she helped him make a 748 00:41:43,520 --> 00:41:46,920 Speaker 1: billion dollar business. You will be very surprised. Look out 749 00:41:47,000 --> 00:41:50,400 Speaker 1: how he moved his companies to Texas before announcing that 750 00:41:50,400 --> 00:41:54,399 Speaker 1: he was running for governor of Ohio. He's just oh, 751 00:41:54,440 --> 00:41:58,120 Speaker 1: he's horrible. But I mean, basically, lo and behold. What 752 00:41:58,200 --> 00:42:01,880 Speaker 1: I had heard, and this is alleged, was that the 753 00:42:02,000 --> 00:42:05,320 Speaker 1: vech was creating his own plans for doge out of Ohio. 754 00:42:05,400 --> 00:42:10,360 Speaker 1: He had his own Ohio team separate from the Elon team. 755 00:42:10,840 --> 00:42:13,839 Speaker 1: Elon basically caught wind of all this and was just 756 00:42:14,200 --> 00:42:18,799 Speaker 1: very dismissive over Elon over a vek and thought of 757 00:42:18,840 --> 00:42:21,879 Speaker 1: him as a joke, which is true he is, and 758 00:42:22,960 --> 00:42:24,960 Speaker 1: said to him something to the effective like, you can't 759 00:42:25,120 --> 00:42:27,600 Speaker 1: run for office. If you're using this to run for office, 760 00:42:27,640 --> 00:42:29,680 Speaker 1: then just run for office and just like get out 761 00:42:29,680 --> 00:42:32,680 Speaker 1: of our hair. And then he ran to the governor or. 762 00:42:32,680 --> 00:42:34,840 Speaker 1: His team ran to the governor asking for the appointment 763 00:42:34,840 --> 00:42:37,480 Speaker 1: in the US Senate, which he did not received, and 764 00:42:37,600 --> 00:42:40,759 Speaker 1: so he's now running for governor of the state. I 765 00:42:40,760 --> 00:42:43,120 Speaker 1: wish the state of Ohio best because he's very likely 766 00:42:43,120 --> 00:42:47,200 Speaker 1: the Republican nominee. Unfortunately, but that's what happened. I mean, 767 00:42:47,280 --> 00:42:51,080 Speaker 1: the Vek war on everybody that was around him, because 768 00:42:51,120 --> 00:42:53,960 Speaker 1: that's who Vivek Ramaswami is. He wears on everybody. So 769 00:42:54,040 --> 00:42:56,600 Speaker 1: I think that's all your questions. I hope it was. 770 00:42:57,440 --> 00:43:00,560 Speaker 1: If there's information on numbers, like a really bring you 771 00:43:00,600 --> 00:43:02,880 Speaker 1: once it comes out. But as of right now, everything 772 00:43:02,880 --> 00:43:06,480 Speaker 1: with Doge is very complicated because the numbers are a 773 00:43:06,520 --> 00:43:09,719 Speaker 1: lot of he said he said in the White House 774 00:43:09,800 --> 00:43:11,920 Speaker 1: right now. So when there's hard numbers, I'll give it 775 00:43:11,920 --> 00:43:13,880 Speaker 1: to you. And as far as wanting to reduce spending 776 00:43:13,960 --> 00:43:18,240 Speaker 1: and reduce the debt and balance the budget, it's all Congress, baby, 777 00:43:18,600 --> 00:43:21,359 Speaker 1: gotta get Congress get more serious about it. Anyway, thank 778 00:43:21,400 --> 00:43:24,080 Speaker 1: you again for listening to this Monday episode of my podcast. 779 00:43:24,440 --> 00:43:27,400 Speaker 1: Follow me on the iHeartRadio app, Apple podcast, wherever you 780 00:43:27,440 --> 00:43:29,239 Speaker 1: get your podcast. If you like this show and the 781 00:43:29,239 --> 00:43:30,919 Speaker 1: work that I'm doing, please give me a five star 782 00:43:30,960 --> 00:43:33,080 Speaker 1: review and give me a like or a follow. It 783 00:43:33,200 --> 00:43:35,040 Speaker 1: really means a lot to get the show out there. 784 00:43:35,200 --> 00:43:41,640 Speaker 1: I appreciate you all. I'll be back on Thursday. Thank you.