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Speaker 1: All de beds. How are you happy? Sunday? Welcome in

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Speaker 1: to another episode of the Daily Juice podcast with me

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Speaker 1: Matt Perrault at Sports Talk. Matt to follow me across

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Speaker 1: all socials. This podcast being brought to you by Omaha

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Speaker 1: Steaks dot com. You can send Omaha Steaks to your friends, family,

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Speaker 1: off saving sale going on right now at Omaha Steaks

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Speaker 1: dot com for the holidays. All right, three and two yesterday,

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Speaker 1: But because I hedged fading fading FSU and hoping Louisville

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Speaker 1: to take care of business, they did not, So that

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Speaker 1: was a two point two unit loss caused us to

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Speaker 1: have a losing day. It's kind of annoying point three

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Speaker 1: down point three on that because we won three units

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Speaker 1: coming back hockey correct, Alabama correct, the under for Michigan

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Speaker 1: Iowa correct. But then we lost UNLV plus two and

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Speaker 1: a half, so we went three and one in college football. No, sorry,

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Speaker 1: we went two and two in college football, and then

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Speaker 1: hockey was right, so three and two right, on that,

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Speaker 1: so kind of a frustration because of the double down here. Now,

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Speaker 1: let's just play this out for a little bit, Okay,

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Speaker 1: because I've been doing the math trying to figure these

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Speaker 1: things out. I have no idea what's going to happen today. Okay,

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Speaker 1: if FSU does not make it, we're going to lose

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Speaker 1: another unit. Now, we won't have that ticket be cashed

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Speaker 1: or graded until January, so you won't the money won't

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Speaker 1: be out of your account until then, but it'll be

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Speaker 1: a loser. We have Michigan ten to one, FSU ten

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Speaker 1: to one. I tried to edge, I can't, so I

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Speaker 1: could lose three units on the FSU future. So that's

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Speaker 1: on me. Okay, I feel sick about it. I'm mad.

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Speaker 1: It really impacts what we can make off Michigan in

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Speaker 1: terms of hedging with Michigan. The dream is Michigan's the

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Speaker 1: one seed and FSU is the four seed. That's the

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Speaker 1: that's the dream. We're guaranteed to have a ten to

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Speaker 1: one ticket in the final, and chances are I'm not

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Speaker 1: going to do anything really, probably bet maybe the game,

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Speaker 1: but I'm not going to do any hedging because we're

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Speaker 1: going to let it play out because we're guaranteed to

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Speaker 1: have a ten to one. Now again, we would have

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Speaker 1: given three units. Potentially, we're down two units going into

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Speaker 1: which we'll give one of those units back depending on

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Speaker 1: who's there who wins, right, but we'll fade the other

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Speaker 1: side and we'll try to come away with, you know,

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Speaker 1: a two or three unit profit here for college football

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Speaker 1: and end the year. So it's been a little bit

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Speaker 1: of a frustration for me because I've gotten a little

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Speaker 1: bit loose and I've had a couple of really crap days.

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Speaker 1: I did okay yesterday, I had a couple of hockey

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Speaker 1: bets that came in, but you know, I got very

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Speaker 1: aggressive with that Louisville and Flores State game, and it

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Speaker 1: did not go the way that I wanted to by

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Speaker 1: any means. And so we're still fifty three and thirty

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Speaker 1: two in college football. So we're going to wind up

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Speaker 1: what fifty five and thirty four. I'm pretty much the

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Speaker 1: same with six two percent coming in here for college

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Speaker 1: football as we had towards the bowl season, and we'll

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Speaker 1: find out who is going to make the college football playoffs.

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Speaker 1: Look at if I was picking the top four teams,

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Speaker 1: you guys are probably all arguing on Twitter X about this.

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Speaker 1: I have Michigan the one seed. I would put Washington

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Speaker 1: as the two seed. I would put Texas as the

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Speaker 1: three seed, in Alabama as the four seed, and Alabama

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Speaker 1: Michigan would play and Washington Texas would play. If you

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Speaker 1: wanted to flip the two of them, I don't really

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Speaker 1: hate it, but I think Texas you either take them

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Speaker 1: both or you leave them both. I think it's very

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Speaker 1: difficult to take one or the other. If you do

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Speaker 1: not take Texas and you do not take Alabama, what

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Speaker 1: do you do. You can't leave two conference champions at

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Speaker 1: home and take Georgia or Ohio State. That makes no sense.

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Speaker 1: But the reason why I think FSU is probably in

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Speaker 1: is because the committee put them at four before their game.

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Speaker 1: If the committee didn't think that they were worthy, they

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Speaker 1: wouldn't have had them at four because you're going to

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Speaker 1: drop them for winning. This was without Jordan Travis. They

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Speaker 1: knew going into the game they were not going to

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Speaker 1: have Jordan Travis, and they still put FSU at four.

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Speaker 1: So my dream right now is is Michigan one, FSU four,

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Speaker 1: Washington two, and then the three seed between Alabama, Texas

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Speaker 1: and I guess Georgia Alabama Texas is a crazy debate

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Speaker 1: Georgia's record. I mean, Alabama's record is better than Texas,

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Speaker 1: but Texas beat them head to head, so and they're

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Speaker 1: both conference champions. I don't know, you leave Alabama out,

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Speaker 1: but do you leave Texas out? Who beat Alabama? Now

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Speaker 1: you could say, well, Texas lost to Alabama, but the

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Speaker 1: loss to Oklahoma was way worse. Alabama's one loss was

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Speaker 1: to Texas at home, but it was early, and Texas

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Speaker 1: won the Big twelve and Texas is twelve and one.

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Speaker 1: So maybe not go by worst loss. Maybe go by

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Speaker 1: best win. Who has the best win. Alabama's got the

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Speaker 1: better win, better resume, So Alabama goes into the three seed.

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Speaker 1: Bama beats Washington, Michigan beats Florida State, and we have

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Speaker 1: Michigan versus Alabama in the National championship game in Texas,

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Speaker 1: and it's going to be a rocking atmosphere. Like That's

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Speaker 1: how I would play it out personally. I think that

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Speaker 1: makes a lot of sense. But I think we're going

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Speaker 1: to wind up seeing I think there's a shot FSU

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Speaker 1: gets left out. I really do. The books have no

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Speaker 1: idea none. Every book maker is literally guessing right now

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Speaker 1: as to who is going to get in. We got,

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Speaker 1: we got Armageddon, we got chaos, we got what we

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Speaker 1: were hoping for. But now because of the FSU, because

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Speaker 1: of Louisville losing and taking those two units down with it,

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Speaker 1: man alive, I don't know. So I'm trying to play

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Speaker 1: around here trying to find what the best play is.

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Speaker 1: I don't really have one, not until we get the bracket.

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Speaker 1: I can't tell you what to do or what we

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Speaker 1: should bet. And frankly, we're going to have months to

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Speaker 1: do it or or a month to do it, so

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Speaker 1: it's not like we could do it right right now.

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Speaker 1: But let's see what the bracket is today. I'm hoping

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Speaker 1: for Michigan one, Washington two, Alabama three, and FSU four.

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Speaker 1: That's a hope. What I think it should be is

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Speaker 1: Michigan one, Washington two, Texas three, Alabama four. That's what

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Speaker 1: it should be for the four best teams. But I

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Speaker 1: think it really might be a Michigan one, Washington two,

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Speaker 1: Texas three, Florida State four, and Alabama gets left out

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Speaker 1: and there's not a team from the SEC in the

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Speaker 1: College Football Playoff, which would be wild considering this has

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Speaker 1: been the SEC Invitational for so long in Alabama with

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Speaker 1: one loss and a conference championship and Nick Saban on

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Speaker 1: the sidelines would be left home. Oh my goodness, gracious,

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Speaker 1: that's why we're going to twelve next year. It so

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Speaker 1: last time. We're just also remember this. This is the

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Speaker 1: only sport on the planet that does this, where people

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Speaker 1: in a conference from decide who gets to play for

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Speaker 1: a championship. It is so stupid. It's amazing the way

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Speaker 1: we've always done this, the FBS, the AP pole, the

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Speaker 1: API pole, It's always been stupid. College football is always

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Speaker 1: like this. They like the controversy, they like the anger,

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Speaker 1: they like when people talk about them. From the beginning

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Speaker 1: of the sport. They like controversy, and we lap it

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Speaker 1: up when they present it for us to go ahead

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Speaker 1: and go crazy, and it gives all of them so

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Speaker 1: much attention, eyeballs, money, all of the above. Okay, So

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Speaker 1: don't know what we're doing yet, just gonna have to

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Speaker 1: wait and see and hope that FSU gets in. FSU

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Speaker 1: is in, hopefully it's the four seed, and hopefully they

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Speaker 1: play Michigan. If they get in and they don't play Michigan,

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Speaker 1: that would stink. But you know, we'll have to do

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Speaker 1: some things, some other buying of tickets if that's the case.

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Speaker 1: But we'll see how it's going to play out. So

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Speaker 1: for right now a three and two day. Yesterday down

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Speaker 1: point three units, which stinks, but we head to today Sunday.

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Speaker 1: We are down for the week now. The last two

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Speaker 1: Sundays have been very good. All right. I don't know

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Speaker 1: if we're going to continue this. I was red hot

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Speaker 1: two weeks ago when I swept the board and I

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Speaker 1: only lost one. Bet went five and one last week. Okay,

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Speaker 1: I don't know. We'll see. I was going to go

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Speaker 1: I hate player props. Do you guys know this. I'm

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Speaker 1: gonna try and grab a couple that I like for

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Speaker 1: tomorrow during our live stream, myself and Pat Fitzmorris hits

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Speaker 1: you at noon Eastern time nine am Pacific time on

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Speaker 1: the Betting Pros YouTube channel for our NFL live stream,

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Speaker 1: So join us for that. I will give you the

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Speaker 1: long teaser which has been consistently hitting for us. I've

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Speaker 1: got a couple of targets for that and player props,

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Speaker 1: two or three player props said I like going into

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Speaker 1: the day. I'll give it to you coming up on

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Speaker 1: the live stream here, and we'll get Pat fitz Morris's

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Speaker 1: picks as well for this week in the NFL Okay.

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Speaker 1: So let's start with a game that is going to

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Speaker 1: be really controversial. Houston's at home against the Denver Broncos.

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Speaker 1: Everyone's on Denver, I mean like everybody. They're a popular

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Speaker 1: pick in the in the circum million, Everyone's on them.

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Speaker 1: I can't figure out why. To be quite honest, I

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Speaker 1: really like Houston. I've liked Houston all year. I'm not

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Speaker 1: sold on Denver, and I don't think Denver's great. Total.

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Speaker 1: The point spread is three. Denver is four to six

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Speaker 1: and one ATS this year. They are one in two

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Speaker 1: against the West. They are three and four ATS against

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Speaker 1: the AFC. Houston's five and six ATS. They're three and

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Speaker 1: three against the AFC, and they have lost two games

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Speaker 1: in a row, having covered two games in a row

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Speaker 1: one in one. Lost in Jacksonville at home by three

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Speaker 1: points in their last game. They beat Arizona by five

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Speaker 1: in the game before that. This is our third consecutive

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Speaker 1: home game, which is really good because they've had a

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Speaker 1: lot of time at home to prep and get ready

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Speaker 1: for a game like this. Unfortunately, they are two and

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Speaker 1: four ats at home. That's not great. You've got a

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Speaker 1: one two in one record for Denver. However, on the

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Speaker 1: road so far, Houston is a team at six and five.

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Speaker 1: This is a very big game. Denver's won five games

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Speaker 1: in a row. They are red hot, and everyone's saying

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Speaker 1: they're going to keep it going here against the Houston Texans.

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Speaker 1: I'm actually going to disagree. They're four and two straight

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Speaker 1: up Houston at home. I think this is where the

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Speaker 1: loss comes for Denver. I'm going to go against everyone

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Speaker 1: and I'm taking the Houston Texans. I'm gonna ride Zday Stroud.

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Speaker 1: I'm gonna ride this offense and see what they can

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Speaker 1: do here to pick up enough first down to score

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Speaker 1: enough points to beat Denver. And Denver's defense has been

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Speaker 1: a little bit suspect, I mean, hasn't been great. Houston's

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Speaker 1: been a team that has been fairly decent at scoring.

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Speaker 1: But you know, talking about a two and two record

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Speaker 1: for Denver against to the over, but four and one

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Speaker 1: to the under over their last five mostly because of

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Speaker 1: their own offense and their own defense. They've won these

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Speaker 1: games on this five game winning streak nineteen to seventeen,

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Speaker 1: twenty four to nine, twenty four to twenty two, twenty

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Speaker 1: one to twenty, and twenty nine to twelve. Not scoring

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Speaker 1: a ton of points here, Okay. While the Texans have

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Speaker 1: had games where they scored thirty nine, they scored thirty

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Speaker 1: twenty one, twenty one. I leaned towards the over forty

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Speaker 1: seven and a half in this game. But I'm gonna

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Speaker 1: take the home team. I'm gonna lay a three points

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Speaker 1: Houston Texans minus three. I'm on an island. I'm by myself, okay.

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Speaker 1: I'm taking Houston minus three for one point one units.

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Speaker 1: All right, one more bet before I give you my

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Speaker 1: own personal teaser. Packers and the Chiefs totals forty three, opened,

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Speaker 1: forty one, been bet to forty three. I can't see it.

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Speaker 1: Chiefs are eight and three to the under this year.

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Speaker 1: Packers are six and five to the under. Packers at

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Speaker 1: home are four and one to the under. Chiefs on

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Speaker 1: the road are four and two to the under. It's

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Speaker 1: Sunday night, where thirty two of the last thirty five

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Speaker 1: games on Sunday and Monday have gone under. I like

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Speaker 1: green Bay to cover the six. I'm gonna put them

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Speaker 1: in a teaser as well. But I like the under. Okay,

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Speaker 1: I'm gonna follow the trend. It's forty three. I don't

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Speaker 1: know why it's being bet over. Maybe they think the

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Speaker 1: Chiefs have fixed it after what they did to the

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Speaker 1: Raiders and you know, scoring a bunch of points against

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Speaker 1: the Raiders and winning thirty one to seventeen the game

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Speaker 1: going over, but before that six straight games went under.

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Speaker 1: Second consecutive road game. This is a bet against Okay

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Speaker 1: teams on their second straight road game, and this time

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Speaker 1: is to lambeau Field in December. Yeah, I'm taking the

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Speaker 1: under under forty three for one point one units and

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Speaker 1: my own personal teaser. I'm taking the Pittsburgh Steelers from

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Speaker 1: six and a half down to a half a point

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Speaker 1: and the Packers from six to plus twelve dog in

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Speaker 1: the under on Sunday Night Football Packers plus twelve Steelers

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Speaker 1: money line. Basically here to just win the game. Can't

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Speaker 1: go get get a tie, gotta win mass half a point.

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Speaker 1: But I think the Pittsburgh Steelers against the Arizona I

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Speaker 1: think this is a good deal if you want to

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Speaker 1: do a two leg teaser or sorry, two leg parlay

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Speaker 1: money line, Steelers money line, Jags don't mind that that's

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Speaker 1: the Monday night though that's Sunday to Monday. But those

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Speaker 1: are looking for Survivor picks. Those are my two favorite

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Speaker 1: Survivor picks. Arizona going east West Coast team playing on

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Speaker 1: the East Coast in the cold in December, and I

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Speaker 1: think Jacksonville against a banged up Bengals team with a

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Speaker 1: backup quarterback and a defense it's not very good. I

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Speaker 1: like the Jaguars to win the game again as well

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Speaker 1: on Monday night, So if you want something tied to

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Speaker 1: Monday Night, you can do that. You can do a

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Speaker 1: three leg teaser if you want to jump in on that.

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Speaker 1: You can take money line for the Steelers. You take

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Speaker 1: money line for was the other selection everybody liked over

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Speaker 1: on Link's Denver and I don't. So you can take

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Speaker 1: Denver if you want against Houston, but I don't recommend that.

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Speaker 1: But if you want to, you ken but Pittsburgh and

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Speaker 1: tie them potentially, like with the Chargers, maybe charges to

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Speaker 1: beat the Patriots. So three leg parlay which could be

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Speaker 1: tied to Monday night, and then maybe you can hedge

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Speaker 1: in game if you need to, just different ideas as

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Speaker 1: to how you're going to play it. If you want

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Speaker 1: to play it, but I don't like the card today.

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Speaker 1: I'm not after I've watched college football all day long.

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Speaker 1: I haven't looked at the NBA all that much. I

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Speaker 1: haven't looked at the NHL. If there's something that I like,

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Speaker 1: i'll tell you. But that's right now where it's strictly

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Speaker 1: going to be a NFL Pro Football Day. My personal plays, sorry,

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Speaker 1: my official plays here for the podcast Houston minus three Packers,

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Speaker 1: Chiefs under forty three teaser, Steelers minus a half, Packers

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Speaker 1: plus twelve for one point two units. Have another teaser

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Speaker 1: and player props to give you, guys, and if there's

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Speaker 1: anything else NHL, NBA, I'll give it to you as

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Speaker 1: well on the Discord channel, bettingpros dot Com slash chat.

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Speaker 1: So yeah, last night I didn't go the way I

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Speaker 1: wanted to go, unfortunately from the hedge perspective, So that

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Speaker 1: dipped into our week here, gotta have a big Sunday.

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Speaker 1: We win a couple of units or more, we could

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Speaker 1: wind up profitable for the week. But let's see if

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Speaker 1: we can at least win two units and wind up

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Speaker 1: down or wind up flat for the week. Here on

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Speaker 1: a Sunday minus Matt Parolt follow me across all socials

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Speaker 1: at sports doc Matt every single morning the Dilijuice Podcast

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Speaker 1: I was being brought to you by Omas stakes dot

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Speaker 1: com